Bayesian phylodynamics of avian influenza A virus H9N2 in Asia with time-dependent predictors of migration

A human-infecting H10N5 avian influenza virus: Clinical features, virus reassortment, receptor-binding affinity, and possible transmission routes

BACKGROUND

In late 2023, the first human case caused by an H10N5 avian influenza virus (AIV) was diagnosed in China. H10Ny AIVs have been identified in various poultry and wild birds in Eurasia, the Americas, and Oceania.

METHODS

We analyzed the clinical data of the H10N5 AIV-infected patient, isolated the virus, and evaluated the virus receptor-binding properties together with the H10N8 and H10N3 AIVs identified in humans and poultry. The genomic data of the human-infecting H10N5 strain and avian H10Ny AIVs (n = 48, including 16 strains of H10N3 and 2 strains of H10N8) from live poultry markets in China, during 2019-2021, were sequenced. We inferred the genetic origin and spread pattern of the H10N5 AIV using the phylodynamic methods. In addition, given all available nucleotide sequences, the spatial-temporal dynamics, host distribution, and the maximum-likelihood phylogenies of global H10 AIVs were reconstructed.

FINDINGS

The first H10N5 AIV-infected human case co-infected with seasonal influenza H3N2 virus was identified. Unfortunately, the patient died after systematic treatments. The H10N5 virus predominantly bound avian-type receptor, without any known mammalian-adapted mutations. Phylodynamic inference indicated that the H10N5 AIV was generated by multiple reassortments among viruses from Korea and Japan, central Asia, and China in late 2022, acquiring the seven gene segments from H10N7 or other low pathogenic AIVs in wild Anseriformes, except for the PA gene from H5N2 AIVs in Domestic Anseriformes. The HA gene of the H10N5 virus belongs to the North American lineage, which was probably introduced into Asia by migratory birds, subsequently forming local circulation.

INTERPRETATION

Unlike the human-infecting H10N3 and H10N8 AIVs acquiring six internal protein-coding genes from H9N2 AIVs in domestic poultry, the human-infecting H10N5 AIV was generated through multiple reassortments among viruses mainly carried by wild Anseriformes. Furthermore, worldwide distribution, inter-continental transmission, and genetic exchanges between Eurasian and North American lineages call for more concerns about influenza surveillance on H10Ny AIVs, especially in the flyway overlapping areas.

Origin, spread, and interspecies transmission of a dominant genotype of BJ/94 lineage H9N2 avian influenza viruses with increased threat

The H9N2 subtype of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) is widely prevalent in poultry and wild birds globally, with occasional transmission to humans. In comparison to other H9N2 lineages, the BJ/94 lineage has raised more public health concerns; however, its evolutionary dynamics and transmission patterns remain poorly understood. In this study, we demonstrate that over three decades (1994-2023), BJ/94 lineage has undergone substantial expansion in its geographical distribution, interspecies transmission, and viral reassortment with other AIV subtypes, increasing associated public health risks. These changes were primarily driven by the emergence of a dominant genotype G57. In the first decade, G57 emerged in East China and rapidly adapted to chickens and spread across China. Since 2013, the G57 genotype has expanded beyond China into eight other countries and reassorted with various AIV subtypes to form new zoonotic reassortants. Chickens have played a key role in the generation and circulation of the G57 viruses, with ducks and other poultry species likely assuming an increasingly importantly role. Over the past decade, G57 has been more frequently detected in wild birds, mammals, and humans. Additionally, Vietnam has emerged as a new hotspot for the international spread of G57. Our results suggest that the BJ/94 lineage H9N2 virus may continue to overcome geographical and species barriers, with potentially more severe consequences.

Genetic insights of H9N2 avian influenza viruses circulating in Mali and phylogeographic patterns in Northern and Western Africa

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) of the H9N2 subtype have become widespread in Western Africa since their first detection in 2017 in Burkina Faso. However, the genetic characteristics and diffusion patterns of the H9N2 virus remain poorly understood in Western Africa, mainly due to limited surveillance activities. In addition, Mali, a country considered to play an important role in the epidemiology of AIVs in the region, lacks more comprehensive data on the genetic characteristics of these viruses, especially the H9N2 subtype. To better understand the genetic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of H9N2 virus within this region, we carried out a comprehensive genetic characterization of H9N2 viruses collected through active surveillance in live bird markets in Mali between 2021 and 2022. We also performed a continuous phylogeographic analysis to unravel the dispersal history of H9N2 lineages between Northern and Western Africa. The identified Malian H9N2 virus belonged to the G1 lineage, similar to viruses circulating in both Western and Northern Africa, and possessed multiple molecular markers associated with an increased potential for zoonotic transmission and virulence. Notably, some Malian strains carried the R-S-N-R motif at their cleavage site, mainly observed in H9N2 strains in Asia. Our continuous phylogeographic analysis revealed a single and significant long-distance lineage dispersal event of the H9N2 virus to Western Africa, likely to have originated from Morocco in 2015, shaping the westward diffusion of the H9N2 virus. Our study highlights the need for long-term surveillance of H9N2 viruses in poultry populations in Western Africa, which is crucial for a better understanding of virus evolution and effective management against potential zoonotic AIV strain emergence.

Parallel evolution of picobirnaviruses from distinct ancestral origins

IMPORTANCE

Picobirnaviruses (PBVs) are highly heterogeneous viruses encoding a capsid and RdRp. Detected in a wide variety of animals with and without disease, their association with gastrointestinal and respiratory infections, and consequently their public health importance, has rightly been questioned. Determining the "true" host of Picobirnavirus lies at the center of this debate, as evidence exists for them having both vertebrate and prokaryotic origins. Using integrated and time-stamped phylogenetic approaches, we show they are contemporaneous viruses descending from two different ancestors: avian Reovirus and fungal Partitivirus. The fungal PBV-R2 species emerged with a single segment (RdRp) until it acquired a capsid from vertebrate PBV-R1 and PBV-R3 species. Protein and RNA folding analyses revealed how the former came to resemble the latter over time. Thus, parallel evolution from disparate hosts has driven the adaptation and genetic diversification of the Picobirnaviridae family.

Genetic, biological and epidemiological study on a cluster of H9N2 avian influenza virus infections among chickens, a pet cat, and humans at a backyard farm in Guangxi, China

During an investigation in October 2018, two people with diarrhoea, mild abdominal pain, and mild arthralgia symptoms in Guangxi, China, were identified as infected by H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV). Four H9N2 AIVs were isolated from one of two patients, a pet cat, and a dead chicken (two respective isolates from its lung and kidney tissues) bred by the patients at a backyard farm. Epidemiological investigation indicated that the newly bought chicken died first, and clinical syndromes appeared subsequently in the two owners and one cat. Furthermore, the two individuals possessed high H9N2-specific hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization antibodies. Shared nucleotide sequence identity (99.9% - 100%) for all genes was detected in the four H9N2 isolates, and hemagglutinin (HA) T138A located on the receptor binding domain (RBD), resulted from nucleotide polymorphisms that were exclusively found in the isolate from the female patient. Moreover, HA K137N on the RBD was found in isolates from these three host species. Importantly, these four H9N2 isolates presented an exclusive binding preference for the human-type receptor (α2-6-SA), and could replicate and cause pathological changes in mice. Phylogenetic analyses showed that these four isolates clustered together and belonged to clade C1.2, lineage Y280. In addition, H9N2 viruses of human origin are genetically divergent and interspersed with the widespread poultry-origin H9N2 AIVs. All these results indicate a high risk of H9N2 AIVs in public health, and effective prevention and control measures against H9N2 AIVs should be considered and performed for both animal and human health.

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Host-specific adaptation drove the coevolution of leek yellow stripe virus and Allium plants

Host adaptation plays a crucial role in virus evolution and is a consequence of long-term interactions between virus and host in a complex arms race between host RNA silencing and viral RNA silencing suppressor (RSS) as counterdefense. Leek yellow stripe virus (LYSV), a potyvirus causing yield loss of garlic, infects several species of Allium plants. The unexpected discovery of an interspecific hybrid of garlic, leek, and great-headed (GH) garlic motivated us to explore the host-adaptive evolution of LYSV. Here, using Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods and a functional assay of viral RSS activity, we show that the evolutionary context of LYSV has been shaped by the host adaptation of the virus during its coevolution with Allium plants. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that LYSV isolates from leek and their taxonomic relatives (Allium ampeloprasum complex; AAC) formed a distinct monophyletic clade separate from garlic isolates and are likely to be uniquely adapted to AAC. Our comparative studies on viral accumulation indicated that LYSV accumulated at a low level in leek, whereas LYSVs were abundant in other Allium species such as garlic and its relatives. When RSS activity of the viral P1 and HC-Pro of leek LYSV isolate was analyzed, significant synergism in RSS activity between the two proteins was observed in leek but not in other species, suggesting that viral RSS activity may be important for the viral host-specific adaptation. We thus consider that LYSV may have undergone host-specific evolution at least in leek, which must be driven by speciation of its Allium hosts. IMPORTANCE Potyviruses are the most abundant plant RNA viruses and are extremely diversified in terms of their wide host range. Due to frequent host switching during their evolution, host-specific adaptation of potyviruses may have been shaped by numerous host factors. However, any critical determinants for viral host range remain largely unknown, possibly because of the repeated gain and loss of virus infectivity of plants. Leek yellow stripe virus (LYSV) is a species of the genus Potyvirus, which has a relatively narrow host range, generally limited to hosts in the genus Allium. Our investigations on leek and leek relatives (Allium ampeloprasum complex), which must have been generated through interspecies hybridization, revealed that LYSV accumulation remained low in leek as a result of viral host adaptation in competition with host resistance such as RNA silencing. This study presents LYSV as an ideal model to study the process of host-adaptive evolution and virus-host coevolution.

Canine respiratory coronavirus in Thailand undergoes mutation and evidences a potential putative parent for genetic recombination

Canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV) is associated with canine infectious respiratory disease complex. Although its detection has been reported worldwide, the genomic characteristics and evolutionary patterns of this virus remain poorly defined. In this study, 21 CRCoV sequences obtained from dogs in Thailand during two episodes (2013-2015, group A; 2021-2022, group B) were characterized and analyzed. The genomic characteristics of Thai CRCoVs changed from 2013 to 2022 and showed a distinct phylogenetic cluster. Phylogenetic analysis of the spike (S) genes divided the analyzed CRCoV strains into five clades. The full-length genome characterization revealed that all Thai CRCoVs possessed a nonsense mutation within the nonstructural gene located between the S and envelope genes, leading to a truncated putative nonstructural protein. Group B Thai CRCoV strains represented the signature nonsynonymous mutations in the S gene that was not identified in group A Thai CRCoVs, suggesting the ongoing evolutionary process of Thai CRCoVs. Although no evidence of recombination of Thai CRCoV strains was found, our analysis identified one Thai CRCoV strain as a potential parent virus for a CRCoV strain found in the United States. Selective pressure analysis of the hypervariable S region indicated that the CRCoV had undergone purifying selection during evolution. Evolutionary analysis suggested that the CRCoV was emerged in 1992 and was first introduced in Thailand in 2004, sharing a common ancestor with Korean CRCoV strains. These findings regarding the genetic characterization and evolutionary analysis of CRCoVs add to the understanding of CRCoVs. IMPORTANCE Knowledge of genomic characterization of the CRCoV is still limited and its evolution remains poorly investigated. We, therefore, investigated the full-length genome of CRCoV in Thailand for the first time and analyzed the evolutionary dynamic of CRCoV. Genomic characterization of Thai CRCoV strains revealed that they possess unique genome structures and have undergone nonsynonymous mutations, which have not been reported in previously described CRCoV strains. Our work suggests that the Thai CRCoVs were not undergone mutation through genetic recombination for their evolution. However, one Thai CRCoV strain PP158_THA_2015 was found to be a potential parent virus for the CRCoV strains found in the United States. This study provides an understanding of the genomic characterization and highlights the signature mutations and ongoing evolutionary process of CRCoV that could be crucial for monitoring in the future.

Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.

H9N2 avian influenza virus dispersal along Bangladeshi poultry trading networks

Avian influenza virus subtype H9N2 is endemic in Bangladesh's poultry population. The subtype affects poultry production and poses a potential zoonotic risk. Insufficient understanding of how the poultry trading network shapes the dissemination of avian influenza viruses has hindered the design of targeted interventions to reduce their spread. Here, we use phylodynamic analyses of haemagglutinin sequences to investigate the spatial spread and dispersal patterns of H9N2 viruses in Bangladesh's poultry population, focusing on its two largest cities (Dhaka and Chattogram) and their poultry production and distribution networks. Our analyses suggest that H9N2 subtype avian influenza virus lineage movement occurs relatively less frequently between Bangladesh's two largest cities than within each city. H9N2 viruses detected in single markets are often more closely related to viruses from other markets in the same city than to each other, consistent with close epidemiological connectivity between markets. Our analyses also suggest that H9N2 viruses may spread more frequently between chickens of the three most commonly sold types (sunali-a cross-bred of Fayoumi hen and Rhode Island Red cock, deshi-local indigenous, and exotic broiler) in Dhaka than in Chattogram. Overall, this study improves our understanding of how Bangladesh's poultry trading system impacts avian influenza virus spread and should contribute to the design of tailored surveillance that accommodates local heterogeneity in virus dispersal patterns.

Impact and mitigation of sampling bias to determine viral spread: Evaluating discrete phylogeography through CTMC modeling and structured coalescent model approximations

Bayesian phylogeographic inference is a powerful tool in molecular epidemiological studies, which enables reconstruction of the origin and subsequent geographic spread of pathogens. Such inference is, however, potentially affected by geographic sampling bias. Here, we investigated the impact of sampling bias on the spatiotemporal reconstruction of viral epidemics using Bayesian discrete phylogeographic models and explored different operational strategies to mitigate this impact. We considered the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model and two structured coalescent approximations (Bayesian structured coalescent approximation [BASTA] and marginal approximation of the structured coalescent [MASCOT]). For each approach, we compared the estimated and simulated spatiotemporal histories in biased and unbiased conditions based on the simulated epidemics of rabies virus (RABV) in dogs in Morocco. While the reconstructed spatiotemporal histories were impacted by sampling bias for the three approaches, BASTA and MASCOT reconstructions were also biased when employing unbiased samples. Increasing the number of analyzed genomes led to more robust estimates at low sampling bias for the CTMC model. Alternative sampling strategies that maximize the spatiotemporal coverage greatly improved the inference at intermediate sampling bias for the CTMC model, and to a lesser extent, for BASTA and MASCOT. In contrast, allowing for time-varying population sizes in MASCOT resulted in robust inference. We further applied these approaches to two empirical datasets: a RABV dataset from the Philippines and a SARS-CoV-2 dataset describing its early spread across the world. In conclusion, sampling biases are ubiquitous in phylogeographic analyses but may be accommodated by increasing the sample size, balancing spatial and temporal composition in the samples, and informing structured coalescent models with reliable case count data.

Phylodynamic analysis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 epidemic in France, 2016-2017

In 2016-2017, France experienced a devastating epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8, with more than 400 outbreaks reported in poultry farms. We analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the epidemic using a structured-coalescent-based phylodynamic approach that combined viral genomic data (n = 196; one viral genome per farm) and epidemiological data. In the process, we estimated viral migration rates between départements (French administrative regions) and the temporal dynamics of the effective viral population size (Ne) in each département. Viral migration rates quantify viral spread between départements and Ne is a population genetic measure of the epidemic size and, in turn, is indicative of the within-département transmission intensity. We extended the phylodynamic analysis with a generalized linear model to assess the impact of multiple factors-including large-scale preventive culling and live-duck movement bans-on viral migration rates and Ne. We showed that the large-scale culling of ducks that was initiated on 4 January 2017 significantly reduced the viral spread between départements. No relationship was found between the viral spread and duck movements between départements. The within-département transmission intensity was found to be weakly associated with the intensity of duck movements within départements. Together, these results indicated that the virus spread in short distances, either between adjacent départements or within départements. Results also suggested that the restrictions on duck transport within départements might not have stopped the viral spread completely. Overall, we demonstrated the usefulness of phylodynamics in characterizing the dynamics of a HPAI epidemic and assessing control measures. This method can be adapted to investigate other epidemics of fast-evolving livestock pathogens.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics, Evolutionary History and Zoonotic Potential of Moroccan H9N2 Avian Influenza Viruses from 2016 to 2021

The H9N2 virus continues to spread in wild birds and poultry worldwide. At the beginning of 2016, the H9N2 Avian influenza virus (AIV) was detected in Morocco for the first time; despite the implementation of vaccination strategies to control the disease, the virus has become endemic in poultry in the country. The present study was carried out to investigate the origins, zoonotic potential, as well as the impact of vaccination on the molecular evolution of Moroccan H9N2 viruses. Twenty-eight (28) H9N2 viruses collected from 2016 to 2021 in Moroccan poultry flocks were isolated and their whole genomes sequenced. Phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses showed that Moroccan H9N2 viruses belong to the G1-like lineage and are closely related to viruses isolated in Africa and the Middle East. A high similarity among all the 2016–2017 hemagglutinin sequences was observed, while the viruses identified in 2018–2019 and 2020–2021 were separated from their 2016–2017 ancestors by long branches. Mutations in the HA protein associated with antigenic drift and increased zoonotic potential were also found. The Bayesian phylogeographic analyses revealed the Middle East as being the region where the Moroccan H9N2 virus may have originated, before spreading to the other African countries. Our study is the first comprehensive analysis of the evolutionary history of the H9N2 viruses in the country, highlighting their zoonotic potential and pointing out the importance of implementing effective monitoring systems.

Molecular and Antigenic Characterization of Avian H9N2 Viruses in Southern China

The H9N2 subtype avian influenza virus (AIV) has become endemic in poultry globally; however due to its low pathogenicity, it is not under primary surveillance and control in many countries. Recent reports of human infection caused by H9N2 AIV has increased public concern. This study investigated the genetic and antigenic characteristics of H9N2 AIV isolated from local markets in nine provinces in Southern China from 2013 to 2018. We detected an increasing annual isolation rate of H9N2 AIV. Phylogenetic analyses of hemagglutinin (HA) genes suggests that isolated strains were rooted in BJ94 lineage but have evolved into new subgroups (II and III), which derived from subgroup I. The estimated substitution rate of the subgroup III strains was 6.23 × 10⁻³ substitutions/site/year, which was 1.5-fold faster than that of the average H9N2 HA rate (3.95 × 10⁻³ substitutions/site/year). Based on the antigenic distances, subgroup II and III strains resulted in two clear antigenic clusters 2 and 3, separated from the vaccine strain F98, cluster 1. New antigenic properties of subgroup III viruses were associated with 11 amino acid changes in the HA protein, suggesting antigenic drift in H9N2 viruses. Our phylogenetic and antigenic analyses of the H9N2 strains circulating in local markets in Southern China provide new insights on the antigenic diversification of H9N2 viruses.

IMPORTANCE The H9N2 low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) virus has become endemic in poultry globally. In several Asian countries, vaccination against H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV) was approved to reduce economic losses in the poultry industry. However, surveillance programs initiated after the introduction of vaccination identified the persistence of H9N2 AIV in poultry (especially in chicken in South Korea and China). Recent reports of human infection caused by H9N2 AIV has increased public concern. Surveillance of H9N2 circulating in poultry in the fields or markets was essential to update the vaccination strategies. This study investigated the genetic and antigenic characteristics of H9N2 AIVs isolated from local markets in nine provinces in Southern China from 2013 to 2018. The discovery of mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene that result in antigenic changes provides a baseline reference for evolutionary studies of H9N2 viruses and vaccination strategies in poultry.

Regional Distribution of Non-human H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus Detections in China and Construction of a Predictive Model

Introduction

H7N9 avian influenza has broken out in Chinese poultry 10 times since 2013 and impacted the industry severely. Although the epidemic is currently under control, there is still a latent threat.

Material and Methods

Epidemiological surveillance data for non-human H7N9 avian influenza from April 2013 to April 2020 were used to analyse the regional distribution and spatial correlations of positivity rates in different months and years and before and after comprehensive immunisation. In addition, positivity rate monitoring data were disaggregated into a low-frequency and a high-frequency trend sequence by wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). The particle swarm optimisation algorithm was adopted to optimise the least squares support-vector machine (LS-SVM) model parameters to predict the low-frequency trend sequence, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the high-frequency one. Ultimately, an LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD was constructed.

Results

The virus positivity rate was the highest in late spring and early summer, and overall it fell significantly after comprehensive immunisation. Except for the year 2015 and the single month of December from 2013 to 2020, there was no significant spatiotemporal clustering in cumulative non-human H7N9 avian influenza virus detections. Compared with the ARIMA and LS-SVM models, the LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD had the highest prediction accuracy. The mean absolute and root mean square errors were 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively.

Conclusion

Low error measures prove the validity of this new prediction method and the combined model could be used for inference of future H7N9 avian influenza virus cases. Live poultry markets should be closed in late spring and early summer, and comprehensive H7N9 immunisation continued.

Integrating animal movements with phylogeography to model the spread of PRRSV in the USA

Viral sequence data coupled with phylodynamic models have become instrumental in investigating the outbreaks of human and animal diseases, and the incorporation of the hypothesized drivers of pathogen spread can enhance the interpretation from phylodynamic inference. Integrating animal movement data with phylodynamics allows us to quantify the extent to which the spatial diffusion of a pathogen is influenced by animal movements and contrast the relative importance of different types of movements in shaping pathogen distribution. We combine animal movement, spatial, and environmental data in a Bayesian phylodynamic framework to explain the spatial diffusion and evolutionary trends of a rapidly spreading sub-lineage (denoted L1A) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) Type 2 from 2014 to 2017. PRRSV is the most important endemic pathogen affecting pigs in the USA, and this particular virulent sub-lineage emerged in 2014 and continues to be the dominant lineage in the US swine industry to date. Data included 984 open reading frame 5 (ORF5) PRRSV L1A sequences obtained from two production systems in a swine-dense production region (∼85,000 mi²) in the USA between 2014 and 2017. The study area was divided into sectors for which model covariates were summarized, and animal movement data between each sector were summarized by age class (wean: 3–4 weeks; feeder: 8–25 weeks; breeding: ≥21 weeks). We implemented a discrete-space phylogeographic generalized linear model using Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST) to infer factors associated with variability in between-sector diffusion rates of PRRSV L1A. We found that between-sector spread was enhanced by the movement of feeder pigs, spatial adjacency of sectors, and farm density in the destination sector. The PRRSV L1A strain was introduced in the study area in early 2013, and genetic diversity and effective population size peaked in 2015 before fluctuating seasonally (peaking during the summer months). Our study underscores the importance of animal movements and shows, for the first time, that the movement of feeder pigs (8–25 weeks old) shaped the spatial patterns of PRRSV spread much more strongly than the movements of other age classes of pigs. The inclusion of movement data into phylodynamic models as done in this analysis may enhance our ability to identify crucial pathways of disease spread that can be targeted to mitigate the spatial spread of infectious human and animal pathogens.

Genetic Characterization of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus in Pakistani Live Bird Markets Reveals Rapid Diversification of Clade 2.3.4.4b Viruses

The highly pathogenic (HPAI) avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have undergone reassortment with multiple non-N1-subtype neuraminidase genes since 2008, leading to the emergence of H5Nx viruses. H5Nx viruses established themselves quickly in birds and disseminated from China to Africa, the Middle East, Europe and North America. Multiple genetic clades have successively evolved through frequent mutations and reassortment, posing a continuous threat to domestic poultry and causing substantial economic losses. Live bird markets are recognized as major sources of avian-to-human infection and for the emergence of zoonotic influenza. In Pakistan, the A(H5N1) virus was first reported in domestic birds in 2007; however, avian influenza surveillance is limited and there is a lack of knowledge on the evolution and transmission of the A(H5) virus in the country. We collected oropharyngeal swabs from domestic poultry and environmental samples from six different live bird markets during 2018–2019. We detected and sequenced HPAI A(H5N8) viruses from two chickens, one quail and one environmental sample in two markets. Temporal phylogenetics indicated that all novel HPAI A(H5N8) viruses belonged to clade 2.3.4.4b, with all eight genes of Pakistan A(H5N8) viruses most closely related to 2017 Saudi Arabia A(H5N8) viruses, which were likely introduced via cross-border transmission from neighboring regions approximately three months prior to virus detection into domestic poultry. Our data further revealed that clade 2.3.4.4b viruses underwent rapid lineage expansion in 2017 and acquired significant amino acid mutations, including mutations associated with increased haemagglutinin affinity to human α-2,6 receptors, prior to the first human A(H5N8) infection in Russian poultry workers in 2020. These results highlight the need for systematic avian influenza surveillance in live bird markets in Pakistan to monitor for potential A(H5Nx) variants that may arise from poultry populations.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus dissemination across pig production systems in the United States

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widespread in the North American pig population. Despite improvements in virus characterization, it is unclear whether PRRSV infections are a product of viral circulation within production systems (local) or across production systems (external). Here, we examined the local and external dissemination dynamics of PRRSV and the processes facilitating its spread in three production systems. Overall, PRRSV genetic diversity has declined since 2018, while phylodynamic results support frequent external transmission. We found that PRRSV dissemination predominantly occurred mostly through transmission between farms of different production companies for several months, especially from November until May, a timeframe already established as PRRSV season. Although local PRRSV dissemination occurred mainly through regular pig flow (from sow to nursery and then to finisher farms), an important flux of PRRSV dissemination also occurred in the opposite direction, from finisher to sow and nursery farms, highlighting the importance of downstream farms as sources of the virus. Our results also showed that farms with pig densities of 500 to 1,000 pig/km² and farms located at a range within 0.5 km and 0.7 km from major roads were more likely to be infected by PRRSV, whereas farms at an elevation of 41 to 61 meters and surrounded by denser vegetation were less likely to be infected, indicating their role as dissemination barriers. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that external dissemination was intense, and reinforce the importance of farm proximity on PRRSV spread. Thus, consideration of farm location, geographic characteristics and animal densities across production systems may help to forecast PRRSV collateral dissemination.

Historical origins and zoonotic potential of avian influenza virus H9N2 in Tunisia revealed by Bayesian analysis and molecular characterization

During 2009-2012, several outbreaks of avian influenza virus H9N2 were reported in Tunisian poultry. The circulating strains carried in their hemagglutinins the human-like marker 226L, which is known to be important for avian-to-human viral transmission. To investigate the origins and zoonotic potential of the Tunisian H9N2 viruses, five new isolates were identified during 2012-2016 and their whole genomes were sequenced. Bayesian-based phylogeny showed that the HA, NA, M and NP segments belong to the G1-like lineage. The PB1, PB2, PA and NS segments appeared to have undergone multiple intersubtype reassortments and to be only distantly related to all of the Eurasian lineages (G1-like, Y280-like and Korean-like). The spatiotemporal dynamic of virus spread revealed that the H9N2 virus was transferred to Tunisia from the UAE through Asian and European pathways. As indicated by Bayesian analysis of host traits, ducks and terrestrial birds played an important role in virus transmission to Tunisia. The subtype phylodynamics showed that the history of the PB1 and PB2 segments was marked by intersubtype reassortments with H4N6, H10N4 and H2N2 subtypes. Most of these transitions between locations, hosts and subtypes were statistically supported (BF > 3) and not influenced by sampling bias. Evidence of genetic evolution was observed in the predicted amino acid sequences of the viral proteins of recent Tunisian H9N2 viruses, which were characterized by the acquisition of new mutations involved in virus adaptation to avian and mammalian hosts and amantadine resistance. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the evolutionary history of Tunisian H9N2 viruses and highlights the zoonotic risk associated with their circulation in poultry, indicating the need for continuous surveillance of their molecular evolution.

The role of genetic sequencing and analysis in the polio eradication programme

Genetic sequencing of polioviruses detected through clinical and environmental surveillance is used to confirm detection, identify their likely origin, track geographic patterns of spread, and determine the appropriate vaccination response. The critical importance of genetic sequencing and analysis to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has grown with the increasing incidence of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) infections in Africa specifically (470 reported cases in 2019), and globally, alongside persistent transmission of serotype 1 wild-type poliovirus in Pakistan and Afghanistan (197 reported cases in 2019). Adapting what has been learned about the virus genetics and evolution to address these threats has been a major focus of recent work. Here, we review how phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods have been used to trace the spread of wild-type polioviruses and identify the likely origins of VDPVs. We highlight the analysis methods and sequencing technology currently used and the potential for new technologies to speed up poliovirus detection and the interpretation of genetic data. At a pivotal point in the eradication campaign with the threat of anti-vaccine sentiment and donor and public fatigue, innovation is critical to maintain drive and overcome the last remaining circulating virus.