Bionomics of Phlebotomus argentipes in villages in Bihar, India with insights into efficacy of IRS-based control measures

The ongoing risk of Leishmania donovani transmission in eastern Nepal: an entomological investigation during the elimination era

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a life-threatening neglected tropical disease, is targeted for elimination from Nepal by the year 2026. The national VL elimination program is still confronted with many challenges including the increasingly widespread distribution of the disease over the country, local resurgence and the questionable efficacy of the key vector control activities. In this study, we assessed the status and risk of Leishmania donovani transmission based on entomological indicators including seasonality, natural Leishmania infection rate and feeding behavior of vector sand flies, Phlebotomus argentipes, in three districts that had received disease control interventions in the past several years in the context of the disease elimination effort.

METHODS

We selected two epidemiologically contrasting settings in each survey district, one village with and one without reported VL cases in recent years. Adult sand flies were collected using CDC light traps and mouth aspirators in each village for 12 consecutive months from July 2017 to June 2018. Leishmania infection was assessed in gravid sand flies targeting the small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene of the parasite (SSU-rRNA) and further sequenced for species identification. A segment (~ 350 bp) of the vertebrate cytochrome b (cytb) gene was amplified from blood-fed P. argentipes from dwellings shared by both humans and cattle and sequenced to identify the preferred host.

RESULTS

Vector abundance varied among districts and village types and peaks were observed in June, July and September to November. The estimated Leishmania infection rate in vector sand flies was 2.2% (1.1%-3.7% at 95% credible interval) and 0.6% (0.2%-1.3% at 95% credible interval) in VL and non-VL villages respectively. The common source of blood meal was humans in both VL (52.7%) and non-VL (74.2%) villages followed by cattle.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the risk of ongoing L. donovani transmission not only in villages with VL cases but also in villages not reporting the presence of the disease over the past several years within the districts having disease elimination efforts, emphasize the remaining threats of VL re-emergence and inform the national program for critical evaluation of disease elimination strategies in Nepal.

Barriers to the effective management and prevention of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) in the Indian subcontinent

Post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a skin disease that usually occurs among individuals with a past history of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). PKDL cases act as a reservoir of parasites and may play a significant role in disease transmission. Hence, prompt detection and complete treatment of PKDL cases are crucial for the control and elimination of VL. The purpose of this review was to highlight the barriers to effective control and prevention of VL/PKDL as well as potential solutions in India. Main obstacles are lack of knowledge about the disease and its vector, poor treatment-seeking behaviours, ineffective vector control measures, lack of confirmatory diagnostics in endemic areas, limited drug choices, treatment noncompliance among patients, drug resistance, and a lack of an adequate number of trained personnel in the health system. Therefore, in order to control and successfully eliminate VL in the Indian subcontinent, early detection of PKDL cases, improved diagnosis and treatment, raising awareness, and effective vector control mechanisms are necessary.

Comparison of collection methods for Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies to use in a molecular xenomonitoring system for the surveillance of visceral leishmaniasis

BACKGROUND

The kala-azar elimination programme has resulted in a significant reduction in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases across the Indian Subcontinent. To detect any resurgence of transmission, a sensitive cost-effective surveillance system is required. Molecular xenomonitoring (MX), detection of pathogen DNA/RNA in vectors, provides a proxy of human infection in the lymphatic filariasis elimination programme. To determine whether MX can be used for VL surveillance in a low transmission setting, large numbers of the sand fly vector Phlebotomus argentipes are required. This study will determine the best method for capturing P. argentipes females for MX.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The field study was performed in two programmatic and two non-programmatic villages in Bihar, India. A total of 48 households (12/village) were recruited. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps (CDC-LTs) were compared with Improved Prokopack (PKP) and mechanical vacuum aspirators (MVA) using standardised methods. Four 12x12 Latin squares, 576 collections, were attempted (12/house, 144/village,192/method). Molecular analyses of collections were conducted to confirm identification of P. argentipes and to detect human and Leishmania DNA. Operational factors, such as time burden, acceptance to householders and RNA preservation, were also considered. A total of 562 collections (97.7%) were completed with 6,809 sand flies captured. Females comprised 49.0% of captures, of which 1,934 (57.9%) were identified as P. argentipes. CDC-LTs collected 4.04 times more P. argentipes females than MVA and 3.62 times more than PKP (p<0.0001 for each). Of 21,735 mosquitoes in the same collections, no significant differences between collection methods were observed. CDC-LTs took less time to install and collect than to perform aspirations and their greater yield compensated for increased sorting time. No significant differences in Leishmania RNA detection and quantitation between methods were observed in experimentally infected sand flies maintained in conditions simulating field conditions. CDC-LTs were favoured by householders.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

CDC-LTs are the most useful collection tool of those tested for MX surveillance since they collected higher numbers of P. argentipes females without compromising mosquito captures or the preservation of RNA. However, capture rates are still low.

Assessing insecticide susceptibility, diagnostic dose and time for the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in India, using the CDC bottle bioassay

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne protozoan disease, which can be fatal if left untreated. Synthetic chemical insecticides are very effective tools for controlling of insect vectors, including the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of VL in the Indian subcontinent. However, repeated use of the same insecticide with increasing doses potentially can create high selection pressure and lead to tolerance and resistance development. The objective of this study was to determine the lethal concentrations and assess levels of susceptibility, diagnostic doses and times to death of laboratory-reared P. argentipes to five insecticides that are used worldwide to control vectors. Using the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) bottle bioassay, 20-30 sand flies were exposed in insecticide- coated 500-ml glass bottles. Flies were then observed for 24 hours and mortality was recorded. Dose-response survival curves were generated for each insecticide using QCal software and lethal concentrations causing 50%, 90% and 95% mortality were determined. A bioassay was also conducted to determine diagnostic doses and diagnostic times by exposing 20-30 flies in each bottle containing set concentrations of insecticide. Mortality was recorded at 10-minute intervals for 120 minutes to generate the survival curve. Phlebotomus argentipes are highly susceptible to alpha-cypermethrin, followed by deltamethrin, malathion, chlorpyrifos, and least susceptible to DDT. Also, the lowest diagnostic doses and diagnostic times were established for alpha-cypermethrin (3μg/ml for 40 minutes) to kill 100% of the flies. The susceptibility data, diagnostic doses and diagnostic times presented here will be useful as baseline reference points for future studies to assess insecticide susceptibility and resistance monitoring of field caught sand flies and to assist in surveillance as VL elimination is achieved in the region.

Visceral leishmaniasis elimination in India: progress and the road ahead

INTRODUCTION

As of 2021, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program has met with success in reducing the rate of VL to target levels in many locales, but there is persistence of low-level disease and sporadic outbreaks, sometimes in new locations. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify knowledge gaps and factors that impede total VL elimination.

AREA COVERED

We reviewed the progress and current status of VL elimination program. We discuss the knowledge gaps influencing the success of elimination program and strategies to be required to ensure VL elimination as a public health problem is achieved and sustained.

EXPERT OPINION

VL elimination is considered technically possible and operationally feasible owing to focal nature of transmission, absence of an animal reservoir, single vector, availability of an effective diagnostic test, use of a single dose of liposomal amphotericin B along with a strong political commitment. Substantial progress has been made in the reduction of VL incidence rates in the country. However, there are many challenges remain that need to be addressed if the elimination goal is to be reached and sustained. These are increasing relapse, outbreaks in new foci and increasing number of PKDL and HIV-VL co-infections.

Livestock and rodents within an endemic focus of Visceral Leishmaniasis are not reservoir hosts for Leishmania donovani

Leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent is thought to have an anthroponotic transmission cycle. There is no direct evidence that a mammalian host other than humans can be infected with Leishmania donovani and transmit infection to the sand fly vector. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of sand fly feeding on other domestic species and provide clinical evidence regarding possible non-human reservoirs through experimental sand fly feeding on cows, water buffalo goats and rodents. We performed xenodiagnosis using colonized Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies to feed on animals residing in villages with active Leishmania transmission based on current human cases. Xenodiagnoses on mammals within the endemic area were performed and blood-fed flies were analyzed for the presence of Leishmania via qPCR 48hrs after feeding. Blood samples were also collected from these mammals for qPCR and serology. Although we found evidence of Leishmania infection within some domestic mammals, they were not infectious to vector sand flies. Monitoring infection in sand flies and non-human blood meal sources in endemic villages leads to scientific proof of exposure and parasitemia in resident mammals. Lack of infectiousness of these domestic mammals to vector sand flies indicates that they likely play no role, or a very limited role in Leishmania donovani transmission to people in Bihar. Therefore, a surveillance system in the peri-/post-elimination phase of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) must monitor absence of transmission. Continued surveillance of domestic mammals in outbreak villages is necessary to ensure that a non-human reservoir is not established, including domestic mammals not present in this study, specifically dogs.

A composite recombinant salivary proteins biomarker for Phlebotomus argentipes provides a surveillance tool post-elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in India

Incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) has declined by more than 95% since initiation of the elimination program in 2005. As the ISC transitions to the post-elimination surveillance phase, an accurate measurement of human-vector contact is needed to assure long-term success. To develop this tool, we identified PagSP02 and PagSP06 from saliva of Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of Leishmania donovani in the ISC, as immunodominant proteins in humans. We also established the absence of cross-reactivity with Ph. papatasi saliva, the only other human-biting sand fly in the ISC. Importantly, by combining recombinant rPagSP02 and rPagSP06 we achieved greater antibody recognition and specificity than single salivary proteins. The Receiver Operating Characteristics curve for rPagSP02 + rPagSP06 predicts exposure to Ph. argentipes bites with 90% specificity and 87% sensitivity compared to negative control sera (P >0.0001). Overall, rPagSP02 + rPagSP06 provides an effective surveillance tool for monitoring vector control efforts post-VL elimination.

Indoor residual spraying for the control of visceral leishmaniasis: A systematic review

Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) is one of the interventions to control the vectors of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Different insecticides are used in affected countries, also in the Regional Initiative for the Elimination of VL in South-East Asia. This systematic review assesses all available studies analysing the effectiveness of IRS on the key vectors of VL. The systematic review followed PRISMA guidelines, with a broad search strategy, applied to seven key databases. Inclusion criteria were studies focusing on 1) Visceral leishmaniasis 2) Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) or synonyms, and 3) all primary research methods. 21 studies were included, five cluster randomised controlled trials (cRCTs), one randomised controlled trial (RCT), 11 intervention studies, also included were three modelling studies and one survey. 19 out of 21 included studies were published between 2009 and 2020. 18 of the studies were conducted in the context of the Regional Initiative. Effects of IRS on vector populations are positive, confirmed in terms of effectiveness and by the availability of studies. Deltamethrin and alpha-Cypermethrin reduce total sandfly counts, and/or Phlebotomus argentipes counts by up to 95% with an effect of a minimum of one month. Prolonged effects are not regularly seen. DDT has been used in India only: whereas in the 1990s a good effect could be measured, this effect waned over time. Two intervention studies, embedded in larger programmes in 2019 and 2020, replaced DDT with alpha-Cypermethrin throughout the study. Combinations of different interventions are not systematically researched, however showing some promising results, for example for the combination of IRS and Temephos. Constant monitoring of insecticide resistancies and quality delivery of IRS are confirmed as key issues for programmes. No human transmission data are available to directly relate an effect of IRS-although modelling studies confirm the effect of IRS on human transmission. Concluding, IRS continues to be an effective intervention for Phlebotomus argentipes control. Delivery requires constant monitoring and quality assurance. Further studies need to assess IRS in different geographical areas affected by VL and combinations of interventions.

Domestic mammals as reservoirs for Leishmania donovani on the Indian subcontinent: Possibility and consequences on elimination

Leishmania donovani is the causative agent of historically anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent (ISC). L. donovani is transmitted by the sand fly species Phlebotomus argentipes. Our collaborative group and others have shown that sand flies trapped outside in endemic villages have fed on cattle and dogs in addition to people. Domestic animals are reservoirs for L. donovani complex spp., particularly L. infantum, in other endemic areas. Multiple studies using quantitative PCR or serological detection methods have demonstrated that goats, cattle, rats and dogs were diagnostically positive for L. donovani infection or exposure in eastern Africa, Bangladesh, Nepal and India. There is a limited understanding of the extent to which L. donovani infection of domestic animals drives transmission to other animals or humans on the ISC. Evidence from other vector-borne disease elimination strategies indicated that emerging infections in domestic species hindered eradication. The predominant lesson learned from these other situations is that non-human reservoirs must be identified, controlled and/or prevented. Massive efforts are underway for VL elimination on the Indian subcontinent. Despite these herculean efforts, residual VL incidence persists. The spectre of an animal reservoir complicating elimination efforts haunts the final push towards full VL control. Better understanding of L. donovani transmission on the Indian subcontinent and rigorous consideration of how non-human reservoirs alter VL ecology are critical to sustain elimination goals.

Antibody and Antigen Prevalence as Indicators of Ongoing Transmission or Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Modeling Study

Background

Control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent has been highly successful. Control efforts such as indoor residual spraying and active case detection will be scaled down or even halted over the coming years. We explored how after scale-down, potential recurrence of VL cases may be predicted based on population-based surveys of antibody or antigenemia prevalence.

Methods

Using a stochastic age-structured transmission model of VL, we predicted trends in case incidence and biomarker prevalence over time after scaling down control efforts when the target of 3 successive years without VL cases has been achieved. Next, we correlated biomarker prevalence with the occurrence of new VL cases within 10 years of scale-down.

Results

Occurrence of at least 1 new VL case in a population of 10 000 was highly correlated with the seroprevalence and antigenemia prevalence at the moment of scale-down, or 1 or 2 years afterward. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that biomarker prevalence in adults provided the most predictive information, and seroprevalence was a more informative predictor of new VL cases than antigenemia prevalence. Thresholds for biomarker prevalence to predict occurrence of new VL cases with high certainty were robust to variation in precontrol endemicity.

Conclusions

The risk of recrudescence of VL after scaling down control efforts can be monitored and mitigated by means of population-based surveys. Our findings highlight that rapid point-of-care diagnostic tools to assess (preferably) seroprevalence or (otherwise) antigenemia in the general population could be a key ingredient of sustainable VL control.

Towards a Sustainable Vector-Control Strategy in the Post Kala-Azar Elimination Era

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a potentially deadly parasitic disease. In the Indian sub-continent, VL is caused by Leishmania donovani and transmitted via the bite of an infected Phlebotomus argentipes female sand fly, the only competent vector species in the region. The highest disease burden is in the northern part of the Indian sub-continent, especially in the state of Bihar. India, Bangladesh, and Nepal embarked on an initiative, coordinated by World Health Organization, to eliminate VL as a public health problem by the year 2020. The main goal is to reduce VL incidence below one case per 10,000 people through early case-detection, prompt diagnosis and treatment, and reduction of transmission using vector control measures. Indoor residual spraying, a major pillar of the elimination program, is the only vector control strategy used by the government of India. Though India is close to its VL elimination target, important aspects of vector bionomics and sand fly transmission dynamics are yet to be determined. To achieve sustained elimination and to prevent a resurgence of VL, knowledge gaps in vector biology and behavior, and the constraints they may pose to current vector control methods, need to be addressed. Herein, we discuss the successes and failures of previous and current vector-control strategies implemented to combat kala-azar in Bihar, India, and identify gaps in our understanding of vector transmission towards development of innovative tools to ensure sustained vector control in the post-elimination period.

Community deployment of a synthetic pheromone of the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis co-located with insecticide reduces vector abundance in treated and neighbouring untreated houses: Implications for control of Leishmania infantum

Background

The rising incidence of visceral leishmaniasis due to Leishmania infantum requires novel methods to control transmission by the sand fly vector. Indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) against these largely exophilic / exophagic vectors may not be the most effective method. A synthetic copy of the male sex-aggregation pheromone of the key vector species Lutzomyia longipalpis in the Americas, was co-located with residual pyrethroid insecticide, and tested for its effects on vector abundance, hence potential transmission, in a Brazilian community study.

Methods

Houses within eight defined semi-urban blocks in an endemic municipality in Brazil were randomised to synthetic pheromone + insecticide or to placebo treatments. A similar number of houses located >100m from each block were placebo treated and considered as “True Controls” (thus, analysed as three trial arms). Insecticide was sprayed on a 2.6m² surface area of the property boundary or outbuilding wall, co-located within one metre of 50mg synthetic pheromone in controlled-release dispensers. Vector numbers captured in nearby CDC light traps were recorded at monthly intervals over 3 months post intervention. Recruited sentinel houses under True Control and pheromone + insecticide treatments were similarly monitored at 7–9 day intervals. The intervention effects were estimated by mixed effects negative binomial models compared to the True Control group.

Results

Dose-response field assays using 50mg of the synthetic pheromone captured a mean 4.8 (95% C.L.: 3.91, 5.80) to 6.3 (95% C.L.: 3.24, 12.11) times more vectors (female Lu. longipalpis) than using 10mg of synthetic pheromone. The intervention reduced household female vector abundance by 59% (C.L.: 48.7, 66.7%) (IRR = 0.41) estimated by the cross-sectional community study, and by 70% (C.L.: 56.7%, 78.8%) estimated by the longitudinal sentinel study. Similar reductions in male Lu. longipalpis were observed. Beneficial spill-over intervention effects were also observed at nearby untreated households with a mean reduction of 24% (95% C.L.: 0.050%, 39.8%) in female vectors. The spill-over effect in untreated houses was 44% (95% C.L.: 29.7%, 56.1%) as effective as the intervention in pheromone-treated houses. Ownership of chickens increased the intervention effects in both treated and untreated houses, attributed to the suspected synergistic attraction of the synthetic pheromone and chicken kairomones. The variation in IRR between study blocks was not associated with inter-household distances, household densities, or coverage (proportion of total households treated).

Conclusions

The study confirms the entomological efficacy of the lure-and-kill method to reduce the abundance of this important sand fly vector in treated and untreated homesteads. The outcomes were achieved by low coverage and using only 1–2% of the quantity of insecticide as normally required for IRS, indicating the potential cost-effectiveness of this method. Implications for programmatic deployment of this vector control method are discussed.

The predominant sand fly vector of the intracellular parasite Leishmania infantum, that causes human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas, is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Vector control tools to reduce transmission are needed. A sex-aggregation pheromone released by male Lu. longipalpis attracts female conspecifics which facilitates blood-feeding and transmission. This study, conducted in Brazil, quantifies the effects of community deployment of a synthetic version of the sex-aggregation pheromone, in a controlled-release dispenser, and co-located with lethal insecticide applied to a small area of the household compound or outbuilding wall. 50mg synthetic pheromone dispensers were used since they attracted substantially more vectors than 10mg dispensers. Deploying this novel lure-and-kill method to houses in eight replicate study blocks in two suburban endemic areas, demonstrated that it reduces vector numbers at both pheromone + insecticide treated houses, and neighbouring untreated houses. The presence of chickens (a known additional attraction to blood-seeking female Lu. longipalpis) increased the beneficial effects of the intervention. The method used only 1–2% of the quantity of insecticide necessary for IRS for an average sized house. The results demonstrate the efficacy and potential cost-effectiveness of this novel lure-and-kill control method.

Visceral leishmaniasis outbreaks in Bihar: community-level investigations in the context of elimination of kala-azar as a public health problem

BACKGROUND

With visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence at its lowest level since the 1960s, increasing attention has turned to early detection and investigation of outbreaks.

METHODS

Outbreak investigations were triggered by recognition of case clusters in the VL surveillance system established for the elimination program. Investigations included ascertainment of all VL cases by date of fever onset, household mapping and structured collection of risk factor data.

RESULTS

VL outbreaks were investigated in 13 villages in 10 blocks of 7 districts. Data were collected for 20,670 individuals, of whom 272 were diagnosed with VL between 2012 and 2019. Risk was significantly higher among 10-19 year-olds and adults 35 or older compared to children younger than 10 years. Outbreak confirmation triggered vector control activities and heightened surveillance. VL cases strongly clustered in tolas (hamlets within villages) in which > 66% of residents self-identified as scheduled caste or scheduled tribe (SC/ST); 79.8% of VL cases occurred in SC/ST tolas whereas only 24.2% of the population resided in them. Other significant risk factors included being an unskilled non-agricultural laborer, migration for work in a brick kiln, living in a kuccha (mud brick) house, household crowding, habitually sleeping outside or on the ground, and open defecation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data highlight the importance of sensitive surveillance with triggers for case cluster detection and rapid, careful outbreak investigations to better respond to ongoing and new transmission. The strong association with SC/ST tolas suggests that efforts should focus on enhanced surveillance in these disadvantaged communities.

Impact of different Leishmania reservoirs on sand fly transmission: Perspectives from xenodiagnosis and other one health observations

Leishmania has biologically adapted to specific phlebotomine sand flies through long co-evolution. The ability of Leishmania spp. to bind to sand fly midgut allows each Leishmania species to propagate and differentiate into infectious promastigotes and be transmitted. Sand fly feeding upon a mammalian host is the first step towards being infected and a host of Leishmania. Once deposited into the skin, host susceptibility to infection vs. ability to mount a sterilizing immune response predicts which hosts could be reservoirs of different Leishmania spp. Materials, in addition to parasites, are expelled during sand fly during feeding, including salivary antigens and other factors that promote local inflammatory responses. These factors aid visceralization of infection increasing the likelihood that systemic infection is established. Any environmental factor that increases sand fly biting of a particular host increases that host's role in Leishmania transmission. First descriptions of reservoir species were based on association with local human disease and ability to observe infected leukocytes on cytology. This approach was one pathogen for one reservoir host. Advances in sensitive molecular tools greatly increased the breadth of mammals found to host Leishmania infection. Visceralizing species of Leishmania, particularly L. infantum, are now known to have multiple mammalian hosts. L. donovani, long been described as an anthroponotic parasite, was recently identified through molecular and serologic surveys to have additional mammalian hosts. The epidemiological role of these animals as a source of parasites to additional hosts via vector transmission is not known. Current evidence suggests that dogs and other domestic animals either control infection or do not have sufficient skin parasitemia to be a source of L. donovani to P. argentipes. Further xenodiagnosis and characterization of skin parasitemia in these different hosts is required to more broadly understand which Leishmania spp. hosts can be a source of parasites to sand flies and which ones are dead-end hosts.

Xenodiagnosis to address key questions in visceral leishmaniasis control and elimination

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) remains an important public health issue worldwide causing substantial morbidity and mortality. The Indian subcontinent accounted for up to 90% of the global VL burden in the past but made significant progress during recent years and is now moving towards elimination. However, to achieve and sustain elimination of VL, knowledge gaps on infection reservoirs and transmission need to be addressed urgently. Xenodiagnosis is the most direct way for testing the infectiousness of hosts to the vectors and can be used to investigate the dynamics and epidemiology of Leishmania donovani transmission. There are, however, several logistic and ethical issues with xenodiagnosis that need to be addressed before its application on human subjects. In the current Review, we discuss the critical knowledge gaps in VL transmission and the role of xenodiagnosis in disease transmission dynamics along with its technical challenges. Establishment of state of the art xenodiagnosis facilities is essential for the generation of much needed evidence in the VL elimination initiative.

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India

Background

The elimination programme for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India has seen great progress, with total cases decreasing by over 80% since 2010 and many blocks now reporting zero cases from year to year. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is critical to continue progress and avoid epidemics in the increasingly susceptible population. Short-term forecasts could be used to highlight anomalies in incidence and support health service logistics. The model which best fits the data is not necessarily most useful for prediction, yet little empirical work has been done to investigate the balance between fit and predictive performance.

Methodology/Principal findings

We developed statistical models of monthly VL case counts at block level. By evaluating a set of randomly-generated models, we found that fit and one-month-ahead prediction were strongly correlated and that rolling updates to model parameters as data accrued were not crucial for accurate prediction. The final model incorporated auto-regression over four months, spatial correlation between neighbouring blocks, and seasonality. Ninety-four percent of 10-90% prediction intervals from this model captured the observed count during a 24-month test period. Comparison of one-, three- and four-month-ahead predictions from the final model fit demonstrated that a longer time horizon yielded only a small sacrifice in predictive power for the vast majority of blocks.

Conclusions/Significance

The model developed is informed by routinely-collected surveillance data as it accumulates, and predictions are sufficiently accurate and precise to be useful. Such forecasts could, for example, be used to guide stock requirements for rapid diagnostic tests and drugs. More comprehensive data on factors thought to influence geographic variation in VL burden could be incorporated, and might better explain the heterogeneity between blocks and improve uniformity of predictive performance. Integration of the approach in the management of the VL programme would be an important step to ensuring continued successful control.

This paper demonstrates a statistical modelling approach for forecasting of monthly visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence at block level in India, which could be used to tailor control efforts according to local estimates and monitor deviations from the currently decreasing trend. By fitting a variety of models to four years of historical data and assessing predictions within a further 24-month test period, we found that the model which best fit the observed data also showed the best predictive performance, and predictive accuracy was maintained when making rolling predictions up to four months ahead of the observed data. Since there is a two-month delay between reporting and processing of the data, predictive power more than three months ahead of current data is crucial to make forecasts which can feasibly be acted upon. Some heterogeneity remains in predictive power across the study region which could potentially be improved using unit-specific data on factors believed to be associated with reported VL incidence (e.g. age distribution, socio-economic status and climate).

Seasonal variation of sand fly populations in Kala-azar endemic areas of the Malda district, West Bengal, India

Vector control is one of the main aspects to reach the target of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from Indian sub-continent as set by the World Health Organisation. Data on different aspects of vector like ecology, behaviour, population dynamics and their association with environmental factors are very important for formulating an effective vector control strategy. The present work was designed to study the species abundance and impact of environmental factors on population dynamics of vector P. argentipes in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area of Malda district, West Bengal. Adult sand flies were collected using light traps and mouth aspirators from twelve kala-azar affected villages of Habibpur block of Malda district, on a monthly basis from January to December, 2018. Morphological and molecular methods were used for species identification. Population dynamics were assessed by man hour density and per night per trap collection. Data were analysed using SPSS software to determine the impact of environmental factors on vector population P. argentipes was found to the predominant species and prevalent throughout the year. A significantly higher number of sand flies were collected from cattle sheds than human dwellings and peri-domestic vegetation. A portion of the P. argentipes population was exophilic and exophagic as evidenced by their collection from peri-domestic vegetation. The highest population density was recorded during April to September. Population dynamics were mostly influenced by average temperature along humidity and rain fall. Resting behaviour of sand flies was not restricted to the lower portion of the wall but equally distributed throughout the wall and ceiling. Programme officials should consider management of outdoor populations of the sand flies and timings of indoor residual spray for chemical control purpose.

Visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatment in controlling sand fly populations is dependent on specific aspects of sand fly ecology

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly disease transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes on the Indian subcontinent, with a promising means of vector control being orally treating cattle with fipronil-based drugs. While prior research investigating the dynamic relationship between timing of fipronil-based control schemes and the seasonality of sand flies provides insights into potential of treatment on a large scale, ecological uncertainties remain. We investigated how uncertainties associated with sand fly ecology might affect our ability to assess efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes. To do this, we used a previously-described, individual-based, stochastic sand fly model to quantify how uncertainties associated with 1) the percentage of female sand flies taking blood meals from cattle, and 2) the percentage of female sand flies ovipositing in organic matter containing feces from treated cattle might impact the efficacy of fipronil-based sand fly control schemes.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Assuming no prior knowledge of sand fly blood meal and oviposition sites, the probabilities of achieving effective sand fly population reduction with treatments performed 3, 6 and 12 times per year were ≈5-22%, ≈27-36%, and ≈46-54%, respectively. Assuming ≥50% of sand flies feed on cattle, probabilities of achieving efficacious control increased to ≈8-31%, ≈15-42%, and ≈52-65%. Assuming also that ≥50% of sand flies oviposit in cattle feces, the above probabilities increased further to ≈14-53%, ≈31-81%, and ≈89-97%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our assessments of the efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatments in controlling sand fly populations depend on our assumptions regarding key aspects of sand fly ecology. Assessments are most sensitive to assumptions concerning the percentage of sand flies ovipositing in feces of treated cattle, thus emphasizing the importance of identifying sand fly oviposition sites. Our results place the evaluation of fipronil-based cattle treatment within a broader ecological context, which could aid in the planning and execution of a largescale field trial.

Detection and functional characterization of sigma class GST in Phlebotomus argentipes and its role in stress tolerance and DDT resistance

Several Glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) enzymes, in insects, have previously been implicated in resistance developed against DDT and other insecticides. The GST enzyme particularly sigma class have important physiological role in detoxification of lipid peroxidation by-products in insects. Phlebotomus argentipes has been intensely exposed to DDT over years due to Indoor Residual Spray (IRS) programme for Kala-azar elimination in Bihar, India. However, in P. argentipes, role of GSTs in DDT resistance have not been elucidated. Here, sigma class GST of P. argentipes (Parg-GSTσ) was successfully cloned, expressed and purified by affinity chromatography. The recombinant Parg-GSTσ was found to be highly active towards cumene hydroperoxide and 4-HNE having specific activity 92.47 & 203.92 µM/min/mg of protein, respectively and exhibited low activity towards universal substrate CDNB i.e., 8.75 µM/min/mg of protein. RT-PCR and immunoblot analysis showed at least 2 and 1.8 fold overexpression of Parg-GSTσ in the single exposed and non exposed DDT resistant P. argentipes as compared to susceptible, implicating Parg-GSTσ also involved in DDT resistance probably by imparting enhanced stress tolerance. The DDT, H₂O₂ and temperature induction assays demonstrated stress-dependent induction of Parg-GSTσ expression indicating its important role in oxidative stress redressal.

Eliminating visceral leishmaniasis in South Asia: the road ahead

Suman Rijal and colleagues highlight lessons from a regional collaboration to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis and identify priorities for the post-elimination plan

Short-term movement of Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a visceral leishmaniasis-endemic village in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), transmitted by the sand fly, Phlebotomus argentipes, is frequently reported on the Indian subcontinent where its basic ecology is largely unknown. Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of sugar solution (10%), containing colored food dye (0.5%) applied to peridomestic vegetation, to mark P. argentipes and subsequently estimate horizontal movement by capturing dye-marked specimens in CDC light traps in a village in Bihar, India. From September 30 to November 27, 2016, a total of 667 captured sand flies were successfully marked using sugar baits, of which 608 were P. argentipes (~91.2%). Although the majority of P. argentipes were captured <100 m from the respective marking sites, a significantly greater proportion of females (15.7%) was captured >100 m from marking sites when compared to males (3.1%). Sand flies that ingested sugar bait were only collected from areas containing >eight vegetation types and mature banana plants. The average number of marked P. argentipes captured per trap-night (±SD) <100 m from respective marking sites was greatest in peridomestic vegetation (Males: 0.9 ± 1.97; Females: 0.63 ± 1.44), followed by areas with livestock (Males: 0.66 ± 2.75; Females: 0.24 ± 0.69), and areas with humans only (Males: 0.1 ± 0.36; Females: 0.11 ± 0.31). To our knowledge, this is the only study in Bihar in which sand flies have been marked with food dyes, and the results demonstrate the potential usefulness of food dyes in estimating short-term movement of P. argentipes. Limitations of this experiment are that the number of each trap location type, vegetation composition at marking sites, and distance of all trap sites from marking sites were not homogenous, and the total number of marked sand flies collected were relatively low. In spite of the above limitations, these data should prove useful in developing a large-scale study addressing the caveats. Results of such a study could provide important information regarding the dynamics of VL transmission and inspire managers to pursue alternative means of sand fly control on the Indian subcontinent.

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Visceral leishmaniasis elimination targets in India, strategies for preventing resurgence

INTRODUCTION

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a fatal parasitic disease caused by a parasite belonging to the Leishmania donovani complex and transmitted by infected female Phlebotomous argentipes sand flies. The VL elimination strategy in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), which has a current goal of reducing the incidence of VL to below 1/10,000 of population by the year 2020, consists of rapid detection and treatment of VL to reduce the number of human reservoirs as well as vector control using indoor residual spraying (IRS). However, as the incidence of VL declines toward the elimination goal, greater targeting of control methods will be required to ensure appropriate early action to prevent the resurgence of VL. Area covered: We discuss the current progress and challenges in the VL elimination program and strategies to be employed to ensure sustained elimination of VL. Expert commentary: The VL elimination initiative has saved many human lives; however, for VL elimination to become a reality in a sustained way, an intense effort is needed, as substantial numbers of endemic subdistricts (primary health centers (PHCs) blocks level) are yet to reach the elimination target. In addition to effective epidemiological surveillance, appropriate diagnostic and treatment services for VL at PHCs will be needed to ensure long-term sustainability and prevent reemergence of VL.

The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterised by a high degree of spatial clustering at all scales, and this feature remains even with successful control measures. VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent by 2020, and incidence has been falling rapidly since 2011. Current control is based on early diagnosis and treatment of clinical cases, and blanket indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in endemic villages to kill the sandfly vectors. Spatially targeting active case detection and/or IRS to higher risk areas would greatly reduce costs of control, but its effectiveness as a control strategy is unknown. The effectiveness depends on two key unknowns: how quickly transmission risk decreases with distance from a VL case and how much asymptomatically infected individuals contribute to transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To estimate these key parameters, a spatiotemporal transmission model for VL was developed and fitted to geo-located epidemiological data on 2494 individuals from a highly endemic village in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. A Bayesian inference framework that could account for the unknown infection times of the VL cases, and missing symptom onset and recovery times, was developed to perform the parameter estimation. The parameter estimates obtained suggest that, in a highly endemic setting, VL risk decreases relatively quickly with distance from a case-halving within 90m-and that VL cases contribute significantly more to transmission than asymptomatic individuals.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results suggest that spatially-targeted interventions may be effective for limiting transmission. However, the extent to which spatial transmission patterns and the asymptomatic contribution vary with VL endemicity and over time is uncertain. In any event, interventions would need to be performed promptly and in a large radius (≥300m) around a new case to reduce transmission risk.

Field evaluation of a 0.005% fipronil bait, orally administered to Rhombomys opimus, for control of fleas (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) and phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Central Asian Republic of Kazakhstan

Plague (Yersinia pestis) and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (Leishmania major) are two rodent-associated diseases which are vectored by fleas and phlebotomine sand flies, respectively. In Central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) serves as the primary reservoir for both diseases in most natural foci. The systemic insecticide fipronil has been previously shown to be highly effective in controlling fleas and sand flies. However, the impact of a fipronil-based rodent bait, on flea and sand fly abundance, has never been reported in Central Asia. A field trial was conducted in southeastern Kazakhstan to evaluate the efficacy of a 0.005% fipronil bait, applied to gerbil burrows for oral uptake, in reducing Xenopsylla spp. flea and Phlebotomus spp. sand fly abundance. All active gerbil burrows within the treated area were presented with ~120 g of 0.005% fipronil grain bait twice during late spring/early summer (June 16, June 21). In total, 120 occupied and 14 visited gerbil colonies were surveyed and treated, and the resulting application rate was minimal (~0.006 mg fipronil/m2). The bait resulted in 100% reduction in Xenopsylla spp. flea abundance at 80-days post-treatment. Gravid sand flies were reduced ~72% and 100% during treatment and at week-3 post-treatment, respectively. However, noticeable sand fly reduction did not occur after week-3 and results suggest environmental factors also influenced abundance significantly. In conclusion, fipronil bait, applied in southeastern Kazakhstan, has the potential to reduce or potentially eliminate Xenopsylla spp. fleas if applied at least every 80-days, but may need to be applied at higher frequency to significantly reduce the oviposition rate of Phlebotomus spp. sand flies. Fipronil-based bait may provide a means of controlling blood-feeding vectors, subsequently reducing disease risk, in Central Asia and other affected regions globally.