Correcting for mortality among patients lost to follow up on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort analysis

'Not taking medications and taking medication, it was the same thing:' perspectives of antiretroviral therapy among people hospitalised with advanced HIV disease

BACKGROUND

Despite HIV's evolution to a chronic disease, the burden of advanced HIV disease (AHD, defined as a CD4 count of < 200 cells/uL or WHO clinical Stage 3 or 4 disease), remains high among People Living with HIV (PLHIV) who have previously been prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART). As little is known about the experiences of patients hospitalised with AHD, this study sought to discern social forces driving hospitalisation with AHD. Understanding such forces could inform strategies to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study with patients hospitalised with AHD who had a history of poor adherence. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 1 and November 30, 2023. The Patient Health Engagement and socio-ecological theoretical models were used to guide a thematic analysis of interview transcripts.

RESULTS

Twenty individuals participated in the research. Most reported repeated periods of disengagement with HIV services. The major themes identified as driving disengagement included: 1) feeling physically well; 2) life circumstances and relationships; and 3) health system factors, such as clinic staff attitudes and a perceived lack of flexible care. Re-engagement with care was often driven by new physical symptoms but was mediated through life circumstances/relationships and aspects of the health care system.

CONCLUSIONS

Current practices fail to address the challenges to lifelong engagement in HIV care. A bold strategy for holistic care which involves people living with advanced HIV as active members of the health care team (i.e. 'PLHIV as Partners'), could contribute to ensuring health care services are compatible with their lives, reducing periods of disengagement from care.

Estimating the mortality risk correcting for high loss to follow-up among female sex workers with HIV in Durban, South Africa, 2018-2021

PURPOSE

This study assesses risk factors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and estimates mortality risk among female sex workers (FSW) with HIV in Durban, South Africa, in 2018-2021.

METHODS

We used data from the Siyaphambili trial, which evaluated strategies for improved viral suppression. FSW with HIV aged ≥ 18 years with viral load ≥ 50 copies/mL were followed up for 18 months. LTFU was defined as absence from study or intervention visits for 6 months. We traced LTFU participants by calling/in-person visit attempts to ascertain their vital status. We used Cox regression to determine risk factors of LTFU and inverse probability of tracing weights to correct mortality risk.

RESULTS

Of 777 participants, 10 (1.3%) had died and 578 (74.4%) were initially LTFU. Among those LTFU, 36.3% (210/578) were traced successfully, with 6 additional deaths ascertained. Recent physical and sexual violence, and non-viral suppression were associated with increased LTFU. The unweighted and weighted 18-month mortality risks were 2.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-3.9%) and 3.7% (95% CI: 1.8%-5.9%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LTFU is common among FSW with HIV in South Africa with additional investigation of vital status demonstrating under-ascertained mortality. These data suggest the need for comprehensively addressing risks for mortality among FSW.

Mortality Among HIV-Infected Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Monitoring and evaluation of clinical programs requires assessing patient outcomes. Numerous challenges complicate these efforts, the most insidious of which is loss to follow-up (LTFU). LTFU is a composite outcome, including individuals out of care, undocumented transfers, and unreported deaths. Incorporation of vital status information from routine patient outreach may improve the mortality estimates for those LTFU.

SETTINGS

We analyzed routinely collected clinical and patient tracing data for individuals (15 years or older) initiating antiretroviral treatment between January 2014 and December 2018 at 2 public HIV care clinics in greater Rakai, Uganda.

METHODS

We derived unadjusted mortality estimates using Kaplan-Meier methods. Estimates, adjusted for unreported deaths, applied weighting through the Frangakis and Rubin method to represent outcomes among LTFU patients who were successfully traced and for whom vital status was ascertained. Confidence intervals were determined through bootstrap methods.

RESULTS

Of 1969 patients with median age at antiretroviral treatment initiation of 31 years (interquartile range: 25-38), 1126 (57.2%) were female patients and 808 (41%) were lost. Of the lost patients, 640 patient files (79.2%) were found and reviewed, of which 204 (31.8%) had a tracing attempt. Within the electronic health records of the program, 28 deaths were identified with an estimated unadjusted mortality 1 year after antiretroviral treatment initiation of 2.5% (95% CI: 1.8% to 3.3%). Using chart review and patient tracing data, an additional 24 deaths (total 52) were discovered with an adjusted 1-year mortality of 3.8% (95% CI: 2.6% to 5.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Data from routine outreach efforts by HIV care and treatment programs can be used to support plausible adjustments to estimates of client mortality. Mortality estimates without active ascertainment of vital status of LTFU patients may significantly underestimate program mortality.

A scoping review on the factors associated with the lost to follow-up (LTFU) amongst patients with chronic disease in ambulatory care of high-income countries (HIC)

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of long term follow-up care for patients with chronic disease, many patients fail to adhere to their follow-ups, which increase their risk of further health complications. Therefore, the purpose of this scoping review was to find out the factors associated with lost to follow-up (LTFU) amongst patients with chronic disease in the ambulatory care setting of high-income countries (HICs) to gain insights for better quality of care. Understanding the definition of LTFU is imperative in informing patients, health professionals and researchers for clinical and research purposes. This review also provided an overview of the terms and definitions used to describe LTFU.

METHODS

The following databases: CINAHL, EMBASE, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for studies investigating the factors associated to LTFU from the date of inception until 07 January 2022.

RESULTS

Five thousand one hundred and seven records were obtained across the databases and 3,416 articles were screened after removing the duplicates. 25 articles met the inclusion criteria, of which 17 were cohort studies, five were cross-sectional studies and three were case-control studies. A total of 32 factors were found to be associated with LTFU and they were categorised into patient factors, clinical factors and healthcare provider factors.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the factors associated with LTFU were generally inconsistent across studies. However, some factors such as financial factors (i.e., no insurance coverage) and low accessibility of care were consistently associated with LTFU for both mental and physical chronic conditions. The operational definitions of LTFU also varied greatly across studies. Given the mixed findings, future research using qualitative aproaches would be pivotal in understanding LTFU for specific chronic diseases and the development of targeted interventions. Additionally, there is a need to standardise the operational definition of LTFU for research as well as clinical practice purposes.

Outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The identification and appropriate management of people with advanced HIV disease is a key component in the HIV response. People with HIV who are hospitalised are at a higher risk of death, a risk that might persist after discharge. The aims of this study were to estimate the frequency of negative post-discharge outcomes, and to determine risk factors for such outcomes in people with HIV.

Methods

Using a broad search strategy combining terms for hospital discharge and HIV infection, we searched MEDLINE via PubMed and Embase from Jan 1, 2003 to Nov 30, 2021 to identify studies reporting outcomes among people with HIV following discharge from hospital. We estimated pooled proportions of readmissions and deaths after hospital discharge using random-effects models. We also did subgroup analyses by setting, region, duration of follow-up, and advanced HIV status at admission, and sensitivity analyses to assess heterogeneity.

Findings

We obtained data from 29 cohorts, which reported outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge in 92 781 patients. The pooled proportion of patients readmitted to hospital after discharge was 18·8% (95% CI 15·3–22·3) and 14·1% (10·8–17·3) died post-discharge. In sensitivity analyses, no differences were identified in the proportion of patients who were readmitted or died when comparing studies published before 2016 with those published after 2016. Post-discharge mortality was higher in studies from Africa (23·1% [16·5–29·7]) compared with the USA (7·5% [4·4–10·6]). For studies that reported both post-discharge mortality and readmission, the pooled proportion of patients who had this composite adverse outcome was 31·7% (23·9–39·5). Heterogeneity was moderate, and largely explained by patient status and linkage to care. Reported risk factors for readmission included low CD4 cell count at admission, longer length of stay, discharge against medical advice, and not linking to care following discharge; inpatient treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) during hospitalisation was protective of post-discharge mortality.

Interpretation

More than a quarter of patients with HIV had an adverse outcome after hospital discharge with no evidence of improvement in the past 15 years. This systematic review highlights the importance of ensuring post-discharge referral and appropriate management, including ART, to reduce mortality and readmission to hospital among this group of high-risk patients.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations

For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Outcomes After Being Lost to Follow-up Differ for Pregnant and Postpartum Women When Compared With the General HIV Treatment Population in Rural South Africa

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Undetermined attrition prohibits full understanding of the coverage and effectiveness of HIV programs. Outcomes following loss to follow-up (LTFU) among antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients may differ according to their reasons for ART initiation.

Predictors of lost to follow up from antiretroviral therapy among adults in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

It is known that 'drop out' from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, the so called lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) occurs to persons enrolled in HIV care services. However, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the risk factors for the LTFU are not well understood.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for LTFU among adults living with HIV in SSA. A systematic search of literature using identified keywords and index terms was conducted across five databases: MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science. We included quantitative studies published in English from 2002 to 2019. The Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI) was used for methodological validity assessment and data extraction. Mantel Haenszel method using Revman-5 software was used for meta-analysis. We demonstrated the meta-analytic measure of association using pooled odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI) and heterogeneity using I2 tests.

RESULTS

Thirty studies met the search criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Predictors of LTFU were: demographic factors including being: (i) a male (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, I2 = 59%), (ii) between 15 and 35 years old (OR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, I2 = 0%), (iii) unmarried (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.2-1.3, I2 = 21%), (iv) a rural dweller (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.5-2.7, I2 = 40%), (v) unemployed (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.04-1.4, I2 = 58%); (vi) diagnosed with behavioral factors including illegal drug use(OR = 13.5, 95% CI 7.2-25.5, I2 = 60%), alcohol drinking (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.9-4.4, I2 = 39%), and tobacco smoking (OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.6-4.3, I2 = 74%); and clinical diagnosis of mental illness (OR = 3.4, 95% CI 2.2-5.2, I2 = 1%), bed ridden or ambulatory functional status (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.5-3.1, I2 = 74%), low CD4 count in the last visit (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.9, I2 = 75%), tuberculosis co-infection (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.02-1.4, I2 = 66%) and a history of opportunistic infections (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-2.8, I2 = 75%).

CONCLUSIONS

The current review identifies demographic, behavioral and clinical factors to be determinants of LTFU. We recommend strengthening of HIV care services in SSA targeting the aforementioned group of patients. Trial registration Protocol: the PROSPERO Registration Number is CRD42018114418.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in low-income and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates from antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are high, leading to poor treatment outcomes and onward transmission of HIV. Knowledge of risk factors is required to address LTFU. In this systematic review, risk factors for LTFU are identified and meta-analyses performed.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Psycinfo and Cochrane were searched for studies that report on potential risk factors for LTFU in adults who initiated ART in LMICs. Meta-analysis was performed for risk factors evaluated by at least five studies. Pooled effect estimates and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using random effect models with inverse variance weights. Risk of bias was assessed and sensitivity analyses performed.

RESULTS

Eighty studies were included describing a total of 1 605 320 patients of which 87.4% from sub-Saharan Africa. The following determinants were significantly associated with an increased risk of LTFU in meta-analysis: male sex, older age, being single, unemployment, lower educational status, advanced WHO stage, low weight, worse functional status, poor adherence, nondisclosure, not receiving cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy when indicated, receiving care at secondary level and more recent year of initiation. No association was seen for CD4 cell count, tuberculosis at baseline, regimen, and geographical setting.

CONCLUSION

There are several sociodemographic, clinical, patient behaviour, treatment-related and system level risk factors for LTFU from ART programs. Knowledge of risk factors should be used to better target retention interventions and develop tools to identify high-risk patients.

Misreporting of Patient Outcomes in the South African National HIV Treatment Database: Consequences for Programme Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation

Background: Monitoring progress toward global treatment targets using HIV programme data in sub-Saharan Africa has proved challenging. Constraints in routine data collection and reporting can lead to biased estimates of treatment outcomes. In 2010, South Africa introduced an electronic patient monitoring system for HIV patient visits, TIER.Net. We compare treatment status and outcomes recorded in TIER.Net to outcomes ascertained through detailed record review and tracing in order to assess discrepancies and biases in retention and mortality rates. Methods: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in north-eastern South Africa is served by eight public primary healthcare facilities. Since 2014, HIV patient visits are logged electronically at these clinics, with patient records individually linked to their HDSS record. These data were used to generate a list of patients >90 days late for their last scheduled clinic visit and deemed lost to follow-up (LTFU). Patient outcomes were ascertained through a review of the TIER.Net database, physical patient files, registers kept by two non-government organizations that assist with patient tracing, cross-referencing with the HDSS records and supplementary physical tracing. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patient outcomes reported in TIER.Net to their outcome ascertained in the study. Results: Of 1,074 patients that were eligible for this analysis, TIER.Net classified 533 (49.6%) as LTFU, 80 (7.4%) as deceased, and 186 (17.3%) as transferred out. TIER.Net misclassified 36% of patient outcomes, overestimating LTFU and underestimating mortality and transfers out. TIER.Net missed 40% of deaths and 43% of transfers out. Patients categorized as LTFU in TIER.Net were more likely to be misclassified than patients classified as deceased or transferred out. Discussion: Misclassification of patient outcomes in TIER.Net has consequences for programme forecasting, monitoring and evaluation. Undocumented transfers accounted for the majority of misclassification, suggesting that the transfer process between clinics should be improved for more accurate reporting of patient outcomes. Processes that lead to correct classification of patient status including patient tracing should be strengthened. Clinics could cross-check all available data sources before classifying patients as LTFU. Programme evaluators and modelers could consider using correction factors to improve estimates of outcomes from TIER.Net.

HIV Treatment Outcomes Among Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Therapy Pre and Post-Universal Test and Treat Guidelines in South Africa

Introduction

Officially rolled out on 01 September 2016, South Africa’s Universal Test and Treat (UTT) policy calls for first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation among all known HIV-positive patients, irrespective of CD4 cell count. We evaluate treatment outcomes of patients initiated on first-line ART directly before and after the implementation of UTT.

Methods

We analysed prospectively collected clinical cohort data among ART-naïve adult patients within two HIV clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa. We compare two groups: 1) an unexposed pre-UTT group initiating treatment from 01 December 2014 to 31 May 2015; and 2) an exposed UTT group initiating treatment from 01 December 2016 to 31 May 2017. Primary treatment outcomes included lost to follow-up (LTFU) (>90 days late for the last scheduled visit with no subsequent clinical visit). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between pre-UTT vs UTT initiation on LTFU by 12 months.

Results

We included 2410 patients. A total of 1267 (52.6%) patients initiated ART before UTT implementation and 1143 (47.4%) after the change in policy. LTFU (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 1.51; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.16–1.98) between groups and specifically among those initiating with a CD4 cell count ≤500 cells/mm³ (aHR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.21–2.10) was higher among patients initiating ART under UTT.

Conclusion

LTFU under UTT proved higher than that of previous periods. Patients initiating first-line therapy under the treat-all policy may often start treatment in better health, subsequently not perceiving a direct benefit to treatment which may deter patients from consistent engagement in HIV treatment programmes.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up in human immunodeficiency virus care in the Greater Accra Regional Hospital in Ghana: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Loss of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to follow-up increases HIV-related morbidity and mortality. This study identified the factors associated with loss to follow-up (LTFU) in an urban health facility in Ghana.

METHODS

A 12-y retrospective study was conducted using routinely collected data from the National Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Control Programme (NACP) on persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 2006 to 2017 at the Greater Accra Regional Hospital. Convenience sampling was used to select the study area. All gathered data were exported to Stata 14 statistical software for analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4330 PLWHA initiated ART between January 2006 and December 2017. Of these, 1166 (26.9%) were lost to follow-up over the 12-y period. The factors associated with LTFU included being a Muslim (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.31 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.05 to 1.65]), having CD4 <250 cells/ml (aHR 1.45 [95% CI 1.21 to 1.76]) and completing adherence counselling (aHR 1.58 [95% CI 1.31 to 1.92]). Having other sources of health care funding and disclosure of one's disease status were found to be protective (aHR 0.74 [95% CI 0.58 to 0.94] and 0.80 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.98], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Some of the determinants of LTFU in the hospital are comparable to those found in other parts of Africa and could be addressed using existing interventions.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV infected adults after initiation of first line anti-retroviral therapy at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized Hospital Northwest Ethiopia, 2018: retrospective follow up study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of lost to follow up from anti-retroviral therapy (ART) care and identify the associated factors among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients after first-line ART initiation at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital, Northwest Ethiopia between January 2012 and January 2018.

RESULTS

The overall incidence rate of lost to follow up was 12.26 per 100 person years (95% CI (10.61-14.18)). Being underweight (< 18.5 kg/m2) (AHR, 1.52, 95% CI 1.01-2.28), jobless (AHR, 2.22, 95% CI 1.2-4.11), substance abuser (AHR, 1.84 95% CI 1.19-2.86), having sub-optimal adherence (fair/poor) (AHR 6.33, 95% CI (3.90-10.26)), not receiving isoniazid prophylaxis (AHR 2.47, 95% CI (1.36-4.48)), ambulatory functional status (AHR 1.94, 95% CI (1.23-3.06)), having opportunistic infections (AHR, 1.74 95% CI 1.11-2.72), having CD4 count 201-349 cells/µL (AHR 0.58, 95% CI (0.38-0.88)) were found to be significant predictors of lost to follow up from ART service.

Multi-level Determinants of Clinic Attendance and Antiretroviral Treatment Adherence Among Fishermen Living with HIV/AIDS in Communities on Lake Victoria, Uganda

This cross-sectional study assessed determinants of HIV clinic appointment attendance and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence among 300 male fisherfolk on ART in Wakiso District, Uganda. Multi-level factors associated with missed HIV clinic visits included those at the individual (age, AOR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99), interpersonal (being single/separated from partner, AOR: 1.25, 95% CI 1.01-1.54), normative (anticipated HIV stigma, AOR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.05-2.29) and physical/built environment-level (travel time to the HIV clinic, AOR: 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20; structural-barriers to ART adherence, AOR: 1.27, 95% CI 1.04-1.56; accessing care on a landing site vs. an island, AOR: 1.35, 95% CI 1.08-1.67). Factors associated with ART non-adherence included those at the individual (age, β: - 0.01, η2 = 0.03; monthly income, β: - 0.01, η2 = 0.02) and normative levels (anticipated HIV stigma, β: 0.10, η2 = 0.02; enacted HIV stigma, β: 0.11, η2 = 0.02). Differentiated models of HIV care that integrate stigma reduction and social support, and reduce the number of clinic visits needed, should be explored in this setting to reduce multi-level barriers to accessing HIV care and ART adherence.

Treating loss-to-follow-up as a missing data problem: a case study using a longitudinal cohort of HIV-infected patients in Haiti

Background

HIV programs are often assessed by the proportion of patients who are alive and retained in care; however some patients are categorized as lost to follow-up (LTF) and have unknown vital status. LTF is not an outcome but a mixed category of patients who have undocumented death, transfer and disengagement from care. Estimating vital status (dead versus alive) among this category is critical for survival analyses and program evaluation.

Methods

We used three methods to estimate survival in the cohort and to ascertain factors associated with death among the first cohort of HIV positive patients to receive antiretroviral therapy in Haiti: complete case (CC) (drops missing), Inverse Probability Weights (IPW) (uses tracking data) and Multiple Imputation with Chained Equations (MICE) (imputes missing data). Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for adjusted models for death at 10 years. The logistic regression models controlled for sex, age, severe poverty (living on <$1 USD per day), Port-au-Prince residence and baseline clinical characteristics of weight, CD4, WHO stage and tuberculosis diagnosis.

Results

Age, severe poverty, baseline weight and WHO stage were statistically significant predictors of AIDS related mortality across all models. Gender was only statistically significant in the MICE model but had at least a 10% difference in odds ratios across all models.

Conclusion

Each of these methods had different assumptions and differed in the number of observations included due to how missing values were addressed. We found MICE to be most robust in predicting survival status as it allowed us to impute missing data so that we had the maximum number of observations to perform regression analyses. MICE also provides a complementary alternative for estimating survival among patients with unassigned vital status. Additionally, the results were easier to interpret, less likely to be biased and provided an alternative to a problem that is often commented upon in the extant literature.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-6115-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HIV treatment eligibility expansion and timely antiretroviral treatment initiation following enrollment in HIV care: A metaregression analysis of programmatic data from 22 countries

BACKGROUND

The effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) eligibility expansions on patient outcomes, including rates of timely ART initiation among those enrolling in care, has not been assessed on a large scale. In addition, it is not known whether ART eligibility expansions may lead to "crowding out" of sicker patients.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We examined changes in timely ART initiation (within 6 months) at the original site of HIV care enrollment after ART eligibility expansions among 284,740 adult ART-naïve patients at 171 International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) network sites in 22 countries where national policies expanding ART eligibility were introduced between 2007 and 2015. Half of the sites included in this analysis were from Southern Africa, one-third were from East Africa, and the remainder were from the Asia-Pacific, Central Africa, North America, and South and Central America regions. The median age of patients enrolling in care at contributing sites was 33.5 years, and the median percentage of female patients at these clinics was 62.5%. We assessed the 6-month cumulative incidence of timely ART initiation (CI-ART) before and after major expansions of ART eligibility (i.e., expansion to treat persons with CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μL [145 sites in 22 countries] and CD4 ≤ 500 cells/μL [152 sites in 15 countries]). Random effects metaregression models were used to estimate absolute changes in CI-ART at each site before and after guideline expansion. The crude pooled estimate of change in CI-ART was 4.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6 to 6.1) after ART eligibility expansion to CD4 ≤ 350, from a baseline median CI-ART of 53%; and 15.9 percentage points (pp) (95% CI 14.3 to 17.4) after ART eligibility expansion to CD4 ≤ 500, from a baseline median CI-ART of 57%. The largest increases in CI-ART were observed among those newly eligible for treatment (18.2 pp after expansion to CD4 ≤ 350 and 47.4 pp after expansion to CD4 ≤ 500), with no change or small increases among those eligible under prior guidelines (CD4 ≤ 350: -0.6 pp, 95% CI -2.0 to 0.7 pp; CD4 ≤ 500: 4.9 pp, 95% CI 3.3 to 6.5 pp). For ART eligibility expansion to CD4 ≤ 500, changes in CI-ART were largest among younger patients (16-24 years: 21.5 pp, 95% CI 18.9 to 24.2 pp). Key limitations include the lack of a counterfactual and difficulty accounting for secular outcome trends, due to universal exposure to guideline changes in each country.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the potential of ART eligibility expansion to improve the timeliness of ART initiation globally, particularly for young adults.

Factors that Motivated Otherwise Healthy HIV-Positive Young Adults to Access HIV Testing and Treatment in South Africa

The World Health Organization recommends early initiation of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all those infected with the virus at any CD4 count. Successfully reaching individuals with relatively high CD4 counts depends in large part on healthy individuals seeking testing and treatment; however, little is known about factors motivating this decision. We conducted a qualitative study to explore this issue among 25 young HIV-positive adults (age 18-35) with a CD4 count >350 cells/mm³ who recently started or made the decision to start ART in Gugulethu, South Africa. Using an inductive content analytical approach, we found that most individuals sought testing and treatment early in the disease progression because of a desire to appear healthy thereby avoiding stigma associated with AIDS. Other factors included social support, responsibilities and aspirations, normalcy of having HIV, and accessible services. These findings suggest that maintenance of physical appearance should be included in the development of novel testing and treatment interventions.

Estimated mortality on HIV treatment among active patients and patients lost to follow-up in 4 provinces of Zambia: Findings from a multistage sampling-based survey

BACKGROUND

Survival represents the single most important indicator of successful HIV treatment. Routine monitoring fails to capture most deaths. As a result, both regional assessments of the impact of HIV services and identification of hotspots for improvement efforts are limited. We sought to assess true mortality on treatment, characterize the extent under-reporting of mortality in routine health information systems in Zambia, and identify drivers of mortality across sites and over time using a multistage, regionally representative sampling approach.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We enumerated all HIV infected adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who visited any one of 64 facilities across 4 provinces in Zambia during the 24-month period from 1 August 2013 to 31 July 2015. We identified a probability sample of patients who were lost to follow-up through selecting facilities probability proportional to size and then a simple random sample of lost patients. Outcomes among patients lost to follow-up were incorporated into survival analysis and multivariate regression through probability weights. Of 165,464 individuals (64% female, median age 39 years (IQR 33-46), median CD4 201 cells/mm3 (IQR 111-312), the 2-year cumulative incidence of mortality increased from 1.9% (95% CI 1.7%-2.0%) to a corrected rate of 7.0% (95% CI 5.7%-8.4%) (all ART users) and from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8%-2.4%) to 8.3% (95% CI 6.1%-10.7%) (new ART users). Revised provincial mortality rates ranged from 3-9 times higher than naïve rates for new ART users and were lowest in Lusaka Province (4.6 per 100 person-years) and highest in Western Province (8.7 per 100 person-years) after correction. Corrected mortality rates varied markedly by clinic, with an IQR of 3.5 to 7.5 deaths per 100 person-years and a high of 13.4 deaths per 100 person-years among new ART users, even after adjustment for clinical (e.g., pretherapy CD4) and contextual (e.g., province and clinic size) factors. Mortality rates (all ART users) were highest year 1 after treatment at 4.6/100 person-years (95% CI 3.9-5.5), 2.9/100 person-years (95% CI 2.1-3.9) in year 2, and approximately 1.6% per year through 8 years on treatment. In multivariate analysis, patient-level factors including male sex and pretherapy CD4 levels and WHO stage were associated with higher mortality among new ART users, while male sex and HIV disclosure were associated with mortality among all ART users. In both cases, being late (>14 days late for appointment) or lost (>90 days late for an appointment) was associated with deaths. We were unable to ascertain the vital status of about one-quarter of those lost and selected for tracing and did not adjudicate causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV treatment in Zambia is not optimally effective. The high and sustained mortality rates and marked under-reporting of mortality at the provincial-level and unexplained heterogeneity between regions and sites suggest opportunities for the use of corrected mortality rates for quality improvement. A regionally representative sampling-based approach can bring gaps and opportunities for programs into clear epidemiological focus for local and global decision makers.

Higher retention and viral suppression with adolescent-focused HIV clinic in South Africa

Objective

To determine retention in care and virologic suppression among HIV-infected adolescents and young adults attending an adolescent-friendly clinic compared to those attending the standard pediatric clinic at the same site.

Design

Retrospective cohort analysis.

Setting

Government supported, hospital-based antiretroviral clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Participants

Two hundred forty-one perinatally HIV-infected adolescents and young adults aged 13 to 24 years attending an adolescent-friendly clinic or the standard pediatric clinic from April 2007 to November 2015.

Intervention

Attendance in an adolescent-friendly clinic compared to a standard pediatric clinic.

Outcomes measures

Retention in care defined as one clinic visit or pharmacy refill in the prior 6 months; HIV-1 viral suppression defined as < 400 copies/ml.

Results

Overall, among 241 adolescents and young adults, retention was 89% (214/241) and viral suppression was 81% (196/241). Retention was higher among those attending adolescent clinic (95%) versus standard pediatric clinic (85%; OR 3.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–11.1; p = 0.018). Multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age at ART initiation, gender, pre-ART CD4 count, months on ART, and tuberculosis history indicated higher odds of retention in adolescents and young adults attending adolescent compared to standard clinic (AOR = 8.5; 95% CI 2.3–32.4; p = 0.002). Viral suppression was higher among adolescents and young adults attending adolescent (91%) versus standard pediatric clinic (80%; OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1–5.8; p = 0.028). A similar multivariable logistic regression model indicated higher odds of viral suppression in adolescents and young adults attending adolescent versus standard pediatric clinic (AOR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.5–9.7; p = 0.005).

Conclusion

Adolescents and young adults attending an adolescent-friendly clinic had higher retention in care and viral suppression compared to adolescents attending the standard pediatric clinic. Further studies are needed to prospectively assess the impact of adolescent-friendly services on these outcomes.

High risk of loss to follow-up among South African children on ART during transfer, a retrospective cohort analysis with community tracing

Introduction: Decentralization of HIV care for children has been recommended to improve paediatric outcomes by making antiretroviral treatment (ART) more accessible. We documented outcomes of children transferred after initiating ART at a large tertiary hospital in the Eastern Cape of South Africa.

Methods: Electronic medical records for all children 0–15 years initiating ART at Dora Nginza Hospital (DNH) in Port Elizabeth, South Africa January 2004 to September 2015 were examined. Records for children transferred to primary and community clinics were searched at 16 health facilities to identify children with successful (at least one recorded visit) and unsuccessful transfer (no visits). We identified all children lost to follow-up (LTF) after ART initiation: those LTF at DNH (no visit >6 months), children with unsuccessful transfer, and children LTF after successful transfer (no visit >6 months). Community tracing was conducted to locate caregivers of children LTF and electronic laboratory data were searched to measure reengagement in care, including silent transfers.

Results: 1,582 children initiated ART at median age of 4 years [interquartile range (IQR): 1–8] and median CD4+ of 278 cells/mm³ [IQR: 119–526]. A total of 901 (57.0%) children were transferred, 644 (71.5%) to study facilities; 433 (67.2%) children had successful transfer and 211 (32.8%) had unsuccessful transfer. In total, 399 children were LTF: 105 (26.3%) from DNH, 211 (52.9%) through unsuccessful transfer and 83 (20.8%) following successful transfer. Community tracing was conducted for 120 (30.1%) of 399 children LTF and 66 (55.0%) caregivers were located and interviewed. Four children had died. Among 62 children still alive, 8 (12.9%) were reported to not be in care or taking ART and 18 (29.0%) were also not taking ART. Overall, 65 (16.3%) of 399 children LTF had a laboratory result within 18 months of their last visit indicating silent transfer and 112 (28.1%) had lab results from 2015 to 2016 indicating current care.

Conclusion: We found that only two-thirds of children on ART transferred to primary and community health clinics had successful transfer. These findings suggest that transfer is a particularly vulnerable step in the paediatric HIV care cascade.

Contemporary disengagement from antiretroviral therapy in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Retention in care is an essential component of meeting the UNAIDS "90-90-90" HIV treatment targets. In Khayelitsha township (population ~500,000) in Cape Town, South Africa, more than 50,000 patients have received antiretroviral therapy (ART) since the inception of this public-sector program in 2001. Disengagement from care remains an important challenge. We sought to determine the incidence of and risk factors associated with disengagement from care during 2013-2014 and outcomes for those who disengaged.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all patients ≥10 years of age who visited 1 of the 13 Khayelitsha ART clinics from 2013-2014 regardless of the date they initiated ART. We described the cumulative incidence of first disengagement (>180 days not attending clinic) between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2014 using competing risks methods, enabling us to estimate disengagement incidence up to 10 years after ART initiation. We also described risk factors for disengagement based on a Cox proportional hazards model, using multiple imputation for missing data. We ascertained outcomes (death, return to care, hospital admission, other hospital contact, alive but not in care, no information) after disengagement until 30 June 2015 using province-wide health databases and the National Death Registry. Of 39,884 patients meeting our eligibility criteria, the median time on ART to 31 December 2014 was 33.6 months (IQR 12.4-63.2). Of the total study cohort, 592 (1.5%) died in the study period, 1,231 (3.1%) formally transferred out, 987 (2.5%) were silent transfers and visited another Western Cape province clinic within 180 days, 9,005 (22.6%) disengaged, and 28,069 (70.4%) remained in care. Cumulative incidence of disengagement from care was estimated to be 25.1% by 2 years and 50.3% by 5 years on ART. Key factors associated with disengagement (age, male sex, pregnancy at ART start [HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.47-1.69], most recent CD4 count) and retention (ART club membership, baseline CD4) after adjustment were similar to those found in previous studies; however, notably, the higher hazard of disengagement soon after starting ART was no longer present after adjusting for these risk factors. Of the 9,005 who disengaged, the 2 most common initial outcomes were return to ART care after 180 days (33%; n = 2,976) and being alive but not in care in the Western Cape (25%; n = 2,255). After disengagement, a total of 1,459 (16%) patients were hospitalized and 237 (3%) died. The median follow-up from date of disengagement to 30 June 2015 was 16.7 months (IQR 11-22.4). As we included only patient follow-up from 2013-2014 by design in order to maximize the generalizability of our findings to current programs, this limited our ability to more fully describe temporal trends in first disengagement.

CONCLUSIONS

Twenty-three percent of ART patients in the large cohort of Khayelitsha, one of the oldest public-sector ART programs in South Africa, disengaged from care at least once in a contemporary 2-year period. Fifty-eight percent of these patients either subsequently returned to care (some "silently") or remained alive without hospitalization, suggesting that many who are considered "lost" actually return to care, and that misclassification of "lost" patients is likely common in similar urban populations. A challenge to meeting ART retention targets is developing, testing, and implementing program designs to target mobile populations and retain them in lifelong care. This should be guided by risk factors for disengagement and improving interlinkage of routine information systems to better support patient care across complex care platforms.

Predictors of loss to follow-up among patients on ART at a rural hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Improved HIV outcomes as a result of expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) access is threatened by increasing rates of loss to follow up (LTFU) among those on ART, largely reported in urban populations. Some reports suggest that LTFU rates are overestimated due to patient movement to other facilities and inadequate medical records.

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To define the proportion disengaging from HIV care as well as the characteristics of those LTFU in order to design and implement appropriate interventions to increase retention.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of patients who discontinued ART at a central hospital ART clinic in rural South Africa and compared with patients receiving care at the 15 primary health clinics (PHCs) to determine the true proportion of those who were LTFU. We also compared those who discontinued ART with those who did not at the central hospital ART clinic to determine predictors of loss to follow up.

RESULTS

Among 3242 patients on ART, 820 were originally marked as LTFU. Among all patients, 272 (8.4%) were found at a clinic on treatment, 56 (1.7%) were found at a clinic from which they had since discontinued treatment, and 10 (0.3%) returned to care between June and July 2016, leaving 475 (14.7%) unaccounted for and thus categorized as 'true' LTFU. Factors found to be associated with discontinuation include being male, age 18-35, having a CD4 count under 200 cells/μL, and being on ART for under six months.

CONCLUSIONS

Young men with low CD4 counts early after ART initiation are at highest risk of ART disengagement in this rural South African HIV clinic. Novel interventions targeting this group are needed to improve retention in care.

Patient engagement in HIV care and treatment in Zambia, 2004-2014

OBJECTIVE

To describe engagement along the HIV continuum of care using a large network of clinics in Zambia.

METHODS

We employed a practical framework to describe retention along the HIV treatment cascade, using routinely collected clinical data available in resource-constrained settings. We included health facilities in four Zambian provinces with more than 300 enrolled patients over the age of 5 years. We described attrition at each step, from HIV enrolment to 720 days after ART initiation. The population was further stratified by year of enrolment to describe temporal trends in patient engagement.

RESULTS

From January 2004 to December 2014, 444 439 individuals over the age of 5 years sought HIV care at 75 eligible health facilities. Among those enrolled into HIV care, 82.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 79.4-84.5%) were fully assessed for ART eligibility within 180 days of enrolment and 63.6% (95% CI: 61.7-65.3) were found to be eligible for ART based on the HIV treatment guidelines at the time. Of those patients eligible for ART, 81.1% (95% CI: 79.5-82.7%) initiated ART within 180 days. Patient retention in ART programme was 81.2% (95% CI: 80.4-81.9%) at 90 days, 70.0% (95% CI: 68.7-71.2%) at 360 days and 61.6% (95% CI: 60.0-63.2%) at 720 days. We noted a steady decline in proportions assessed for ART eligibility and deemed eligible for ART in the time frame. Proportions that started ART and remained in care remained relatively consistent.

CONCLUSION

We describe a simple approach for assessing patient engagement after enrolment into HIV care. Using limited types of data routinely available, we demonstrate an important and replicable approach to monitoring programmes in resource-constrained settings.

Outcomes of HIV-positive patients lost to follow-up in African treatment programmes

OBJECTIVE

The retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is key to achieving global targets in response to the HIV epidemic. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) can be substantial, with unknown outcomes for patients lost to ART programmes. We examined changes in outcomes of patients LTFU over calendar time, assessed associations with other study and programme characteristics and investigated the relative success of different tracing methods.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and logistic random-effects meta-regression analysis of studies that traced adults or children who started ART and were LTFU in sub-Saharan African treatment programmes. The primary outcome was mortality, and secondary outcomes were undocumented transfer to another programme, treatment interruption and the success of tracing attempts.

RESULTS

We included 32 eligible studies from 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 20 365 patients LTFU were traced, and 15 708 patients (77.1%) were found. Compared to telephone calls, tracing that included home visits increased the probability of success: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 9.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-47.31). The risk of death declined over calendar time (aOR per 1-year increase 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95), whereas undocumented transfers (aOR 1.13, 95% CI 0.96-1.34) and treatment interruptions (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.18-1.45) tended to increase. Mortality was lower in urban than in rural areas (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.98), but there was no difference in mortality between adults and children. The CD4 cell count at the start of ART increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among HIV-positive patients who started ART in sub-Saharan Africa, were lost to programmes and were successfully traced has declined substantially during the scale-up of ART, probably driven by less severe immunodeficiency at the start of therapy.

Risk factors for mortality in TB patients: a 10-year electronic record review in a South African province

Background

Since 1990, reduction of tuberculosis (TB) mortality has been lower in South Africa than in other high-burden countries in Africa. This research investigated the influence of routinely captured demographic and clinical or programme variables on death in TB patients in the Free State Province.

Methods

A retrospective review of case information captured in the Electronic TB register (ETR.net) over the years 2003 to 2012 was conducted. Extracted data were subjected to descriptive and logistic regression analyses. The outcome variable was defined as all registered TB cases with ‘died’ as the recorded outcome. The variables associated with increased or decreased odds of dying in TB patients were established. The univariate and adjusted odds ratios (OR and AOR) together with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated, taking the clustering effect of the districts into account.

Results

Of the 190,472 TB cases included in the analysis, 30,991 (16.3%) had ‘died’ as the recorded treatment outcome. The proportion of TB patients that died increased from 15.1% in 2003 to 17.8% in 2009, before declining to 15.4% in 2012. The odds of dying was incrementally higher in the older age groups: 8–17 years (AOR: 2.0; CI: 1.5–2.7), 18–49 years (AOR: 5.8; CI: 4.0–8.4), 50–64 years (AOR: 7.7; CI: 4.6–12.7), and ≥65 years (AOR: 14.4; CI: 10.3–20.2). Other factors associated with increased odds of mortality included: HIV co-infection (males – AOR: 2.4; CI: 2.1–2.8; females – AOR: 1.9; CI: 1.7–2.1) or unknown HIV status (males – AOR: 2.8; CI: 2.5–3.1; females – AOR: 2.4; CI: 2.2–2.6), having a negative (AOR: 1.4; CI: 1.3–1.6) or a missing (AOR: 2.1; CI: 1.4–3.2) pre-treatment sputum smear result, and being a retreatment case (AOR: 1.3; CI: 1.2–1.4).

Conclusions

Although mortality in TB patients in the Free State has been falling since 2009, it remained high at more than 15% in 2012. Appropriately targeted treatment and care for the identified high-risk groups could be considered.

Marked sex differences in all-cause mortality on antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

While women and girls are disproportionately at risk of HIV acquisition, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), globally men and women comprise similar proportions of people living with HIV who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy. However, men represent only approximately 41% of those receiving antiretroviral therapy globally. There has been limited study of men’s outcomes in treatment programmes, despite data suggesting that men living with HIV and engaged in treatment programmes have higher mortality rates. This systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis (MA) aims to assess differential all-cause mortality between men and women living with HIV and on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC.

Methods

A SR was conducted through searching PubMed, Ovid Global Health and EMBASE for peer-reviewed, published observational studies reporting differential outcomes by sex of adults (≥15 years) living with HIV, in treatment programmes and on antiretroviral medications in LMIC. For studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality by sex, quality assessment using Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (cohort studies) and an MA using a random-effects model (Stata 14.0) were conducted.

Results

A total of 11,889 records were screened, and 6726 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility. There were 31 included studies in the final MA reporting 42 HRs, with a total sample size of 86,233 men and 117,719 women, and total time on antiretroviral therapy of 1555 months. The pooled hazard ratio (pHR) showed a 46% increased hazard of death for men while on antiretroviral treatment (1.35–1.59). Increased hazard was significant across geographic regions (sub-Saharan Africa: pHR 1.41 (1.28–1.56); Asia: 1.77 (1.42–2.21)) and persisted over time on treatment (≤12 months: 1.42 (1.21–1.67); 13–35 months: 1.48 (1.23–1.78); 36–59 months: 1.50 (1.18–1.91); 61 to 108 months: 1.49 (1.29–1.71)).

Conclusions

Men living with HIV have consistently and significantly greater hazards of all-cause mortality compared with women while on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC. This effect persists over time on treatment. The clinical and population-level prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy will only be realized if programmes can improve male engagement, diagnosis, earlier initiation of therapy, clinical outcomes and can support long-term adherence and retention.

Health-related quality of life of antiretroviral treatment defaulters in Botswana

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves patients’ health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Defaulting from ART has detrimental consequences, including the development of viral resistance, treatment failure and increased risks of disease progression. Little is known about the quality of life of ART defaulters and reasons for discontinuing their ART.

Objectives

This study sought to measure the HRQoL of ART patients in Botswana who were on ART for up to 5 years but had discontinued treatment for at least 3 months, and to identify factors associated with ART defaulting.

Method

We conducted a cross-sectional study with 104 eligible respondents in four ART clinics in south eastern Botswana. We assessed respondents’ HRQoL using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire for HIV short form. Clinical information was obtained from respondents’ medical records. Data were analysed using SAS version 9.2.

Results

Reasons for discontinuing ART were inaccessible clinics (22.4%), feeling better (21.4%), running out of pills (11.2%), depression (8.2%), lack of care and/or support (8.2%), failure to understand instructions (7.7%), medications’ side effects (6.1%) and alcohol abuse (3.1%). In multivariate analyses, respondents aged 36–45 years had a 0.03 lower independence HRQoL score compared to those aged 35 and younger (β = -0.03; 95% confidence interval: -1.72, -1.66). Despite defaulting from their ART, respondents’ calculated HRQoL scores were moderate.

Conclusion

This study highlights the need to enhance ART adherence in order to improve the HRQoL of people living with HIV and/or AIDS.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa: the Cresting Wave

CONTEXT

South Africa has the most HIV infections of any country in the world, yet little is known about the adolescent continuum of care from HIV diagnosis through viral suppression.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and online conference proceedings from International AIDS Society (IAS), International AIDS Conference (AIDS) and Conference on Retrovirology and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) from 1 January 2005 to 31 July 2015.

DATA EXTRACTION

We selected published literature containing South African cohorts and epidemiological data reporting primary data for youth (15-24 years of age) at any stage of the HIV continuum of care (ie, diagnosis, treatment, retention, viral suppression). For the meta-analysis we used six sources for retention in care and nine for viral suppression.

RESULTS

Among the estimated 867 283 HIV-infected youth from 15 to 24 years old in South Africa in 2013, 14% accessed antiretroviral therapy (ART). Of those on therapy, ∼83% were retained in care and 81% were virally suppressed. Overall, we estimate that 10% of HIV-infected youth in South Africa in 2013 were virally suppressed.

LIMITATIONS

This analysis relies on published data from large mostly urban South Africa cohorts limiting the generalisability to all adolescents.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a large increase in ART programmes in South Africa that have relatively high retention rates and viral suppression rates among HIV-infected youth, only a small percentage are virally suppressed, largely due to low numbers of adolescents and young adults accessing ART.

Retention in Care among HIV-Infected Pregnant Women in Haiti with PMTCT Option B

Background. Preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV relies on engagement in care during the prenatal, peripartum, and postpartum periods. Under PMTCT Option B, pregnant women with elevated CD4 counts are provided with antiretroviral prophylaxis until cessation of breastfeeding. Methods. Retrospective analysis of retention in care among HIV-infected pregnant women in Haiti was performed. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors associated with loss to follow-up (LFU) defined as no medical visit for at least 6 months and Kaplan-Meier curves were created to show LFU timing. Results. Women in the cohort had 463 pregnancies between 2009 and 2012 with retention rates of 80% at delivery, 67% at one year, and 59% at 2 years. Among those who were LFU, the highest risk period was during pregnancy (60%) or shortly afterwards (24.4% by 12 months). Never starting on antiretroviral therapy (aRR 2.29, 95% CI 1.4–3.8) was associated with loss to follow-up. Conclusions. Loss to follow-up during and after pregnancy was common in HIV-infected women in Haiti under PMTCT Option B. Since sociodemographic factors and distance from home to facility did not predict LFU, future work should elicit and address barriers to retention at the initial prenatal care visit in all women. Better tracking systems to capture engagement in care in the wider network are needed.

Different modalities of entry in a large urban clinic in Uganda and impact on outcomes of patients assessing HIV care and treatment

In resource-limited settings, a number of patients do not receive continuous HIV care. In this analysis, we compared outcomes in patients who entered care by different modality of entry. This was a retrospective analysis of all patients started on antiretroviral treatment (ART) at a large urban center in Uganda from 2005 to 2012. Patients were categorized into three groups (1) Front door: started on ART without interruption during follow-up; (2) drop-out side door: restarted on ART after having an interruption >6 months and (3) transfer-in side door: transferred-in after being started on ART somewhere else. We compared characteristics at enrollment in the three groups and investigated the following outcomes: (1) retention in care (2) switch to second line. In the study period 11,528 (87.2%) were enrolled through the front door, 1159 (8.7%) resumed ART after dropping out, while 527 (4%) patients were transferred in on ART. The three groups were generally comparable, although patients transferred in were sicker. A larger proportion of patients entered through the drop-out side door died or was lost to follow-up (37.3%), as compared to patients in the front door group (24.9%) and transferred-in side door group (17.7%). More patients in the front door group (32.1%) were transferred out during the follow-up. The highest probability of switching to second line was found in the transferred-in group. Patients who re-enter our program after dropping out are at higher risk of dropping out of care and often need to be switched to second-line ART. The high demand for second-line therapy among patients in transfer-in side door reflects failure in management of complicated patients who are usually require "up-transfer" to better treatment centers. In future understanding, the different modes of entry into HIV care will be key in reshaping the general cascade of HIV care.

A Decade of Combination Antiretroviral Treatment in Asia: The TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database Cohort

Asian countries have seen the expansion of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) over the past decade. The TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) was established in 2003 comprising 23 urban referral sites in 13 countries across the region. We examined trends in treatment outcomes in patients who initiated cART between 2003 and 2013. Time of cART initiation was grouped into three periods: 2003-2005, 2006-2009, and 2010-2013. We analyzed trends in undetectable viral load (VL; defined as VL <400 copies/ml), CD4 changes from pre-cART levels, and overall survival. Of 6,521 patients included, the overall median CD4 count at cART initiation was 120 cells/μl (interquartile range: 38-218). Despite an increase over time, pre-cART CD4 counts remained <200 cells/μl. Adjusted analyses showed undetectable VL was more likely when starting cART in later years [2006-2009: odds ratio (OR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.45, 2.15); and 2010-2013: OR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.33, 3.97), all p < .001, compared to 2003-2005], and survival was improved [2006-2009: subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.41, 95% CI (0.27, 0.61), 2010-2013: SHR = 0.29, 95% CI (0.17, 0.49), all p < .001, compared to 2003-2005]. No differences in CD4 response was observed over time. Age and CD4 levels prior to cART initiation were associated with all three treatment outcomes, with older age and higher CD4 counts being associated with undetectable VL. Survival and VL response on cART have improved over the past decade in TAHOD, although CD4 count at cART initiation remained low. Greater effort should be made to facilitate earlier HIV diagnosis and linkage to care and treatment, to achieve greater improvements in treatment outcomes.

Retention in Care among HIV-Infected Adults in Ethiopia, 2005- 2011: A Mixed-Methods Study

Background

Poor retention in HIV care challenges the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study assessed how well patients stay in care and explored factors associated with retention in the context of an initial ART rollout in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We conducted a mixed-methods study at a teaching hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A cohort of 385 patients was followed for a median of 4.6 years from ART initiation to lost-to-follow-up (LTFU—missing appointments for more than three months after last scheduled visit or administrative censoring). We used Kaplan-Meier plots to describe LTFU over time and Cox-regression models to identify factors associated with being LTFU. We held six focus group discussions, each with 6–11 patients enrolled in care; we analyzed data inductively informed by grounded theory.

Results

Patients in the cohort were predominantly female (64%) and the median age was 34 years. Thirty percent were LTFU by study’s end; the median time to LTFU was 1,675 days. Higher risk of LTFU was associated with baseline CD4 counts <100 and >200 cells/μL (HR = 1.62; 95% CI:1.03–2.55; and HR = 2.06; 95% CI:1.15–3.70, respectively), compared with patients with baseline CD4 counts of 100–200 cells/μL. Bedridden participants at ART initiation (HR = 2.05; 95% CIs [1.11–3.80]) and those with no or only primary education (HR = 1.50; 95% CIs [1.00–2.24]) were more likely to be LTFU. Our qualitative data revealed that fear of stigma, care dissatisfaction, use of holy water, and economic constraints discouraged retention in care. Social support and restored health and functional ability motivated retention.

Conclusion

Complex socio-cultural, economic, and health-system factors inhibit optimum patient retention. Better tracking, enhanced social support, and regular adherence counseling addressing stigma and alternative healing options are needed. Intervention strategies aimed at changing clinic routines and improving patient–provider communication could address many of the identified barriers.

Frequency of Lost to Follow-Up and Associated Factors for Patients with Rheumatic Diseases

Objective

To determine the frequency of lost to follow-up (LTFU) in the setting of usual care for outpatients with rheumatic diseases including RA, SLE, AS, and Ps/PsA, to explore the associated demographic factors, and to investigate the reasons for being LTFU from the original medical care.

Methods

Patients registered between May 2011 and January 2014 at the rheumatology outpatient department of a medical center were included. Those who did not attend their scheduled appointment were defined as LTFU. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the factors for being LTFU.

Results

A total of 781 patients were enrolled, including 406 patients with RA, 174 with SLE, 136 with AS, and 65 with Ps/PsA. The frequency of LTFU was 23.9%, 25.9%, 35.3%, and 35.4%, respectively. The frequency of LTFU was significantly different between the four rheumatic diseases (p = 0.028). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, an older age increased being LTFU in the patients with RA (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.00–1.04; p = 0.033), but reduced being LTFU in those with Ps/PsA (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.92–0.99; p = 0.021). Female patients with SLE and Ps/PsA were more likely to be LTFU, although this did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.056 and 0.071, respectively). The most common reason for being LTFU was moving to other district hospitals from the original medical center due to convenience for the patients with RA and SLE, and stopping medication due to minimal symptoms for the patients with AS and Ps/PsA.

Conclusions

The frequency of LTFU in patients with rheumatic diseases is high. Associated demographic factors included older age in RA, female gender in SLE and Ps/PsA, and younger age in Ps/PsA, with various reasons for being LTFU. Recognizing these associated factors and reasons for being LTFU may help to improve the attendance of patients and the quality of medical care.

Brief Report: Does Most Mortality in Patients on ART Occur in Care or After Lost to Follow-Up? Evidence From the Themba Lethu Clinic, South Africa

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

In resource-limited settings, early mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approximately 10%; yet, it is unclear how much of that mortality occurs in care or after lost to follow-up. We assessed mortality rates and predictors of death among 12,222 nonpregnant ART-naive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and May 2012 in South Africa, stratified by person-years in care and lost. We found 14.6% of patients died and being lost accounted for a minority of deaths across multiple definitions of loss (population attributable-risk percent ranged from 10.4% to 42.5%). Although mortality rates in patients lost were much higher than in care, most ART-related mortality occurred on treatment.

CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation and the risk of loss to follow-up: results from a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is now recommended irrespective of CD4 count. However data on the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and loss to follow-up (LTFU) are limited and conflicting.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis including all adults initiating ART (2008-2012) at three public sector sites in South Africa. LTFU was defined as no visit in the 6 months before database closure. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models examined the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and 24-month LTFU. Final models were adjusted for demographics, year of ART initiation, programme expansion and corrected for unascertained mortality.

RESULTS

Among 17 038 patients, the median CD4 at initiation increased from 119 (IQR 54-180) in 2008 to 257 (IQR 175-318) in 2012. In unadjusted models, observed LTFU was associated with both CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL. After adjustment, patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL were 1.35 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.63) times as likely to be LTFU after 24 months compared to those with a CD4 150-199 cells/μL. This increased risk for patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL was largest in the first 3 months on treatment. Correction for unascertained deaths attenuated the association between CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and LTFU while the association between CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL and LTFU persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients initiating ART at higher CD4 counts may be at increased risk for LTFU. With programmes initiating patients at higher CD4 counts, models of ART delivery need to be reoriented to support long-term retention.

Independent predictors of tuberculosis mortality in a high HIV prevalence setting: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Identifying those at increased risk of death during TB treatment is a priority in resource-constrained settings. We performed this study to determine predictors of mortality during TB treatment.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of a TB surveillance population in a high HIV prevalence area that was recorded in ETR.net (Electronic Tuberculosis Register). Adult TB cases initiated TB treatment from 2007 through 2009 in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for death (after multiple imputations for missing data). Model selection was performed using Akaike’s Information Criterion to obtain the most relevant predictors of death.

Results

Of 16,209 adult TB cases, 851 (5.3 %) died during TB treatment. In all TB cases, advancing age, co-infection with HIV, a prior history of TB and the presence of both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. In HIV-infected TB cases, advancing age and female gender were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. Increasing CD4 counts and antiretroviral treatment during TB treatment were protective against death. In HIV-uninfected TB cases, advancing age was independently associated with death, whereas smear-positive disease was protective.

Conclusion

We identified several independent predictors of death during TB treatment in resource-constrained settings. Our findings inform resource-constrained settings about certain subgroups of TB patients that should be targeted to improve mortality during TB treatment.

Implementation and Operational Research: Maternal Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Is Associated With Improved Retention of HIV-Exposed Infants in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

BACKGROUND

Programs to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission are plagued by loss to follow-up (LTFU) of HIV-exposed infants. We assessed if providing combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) to HIV-infected mothers was associated with reduced LTFU of their HIV-exposed infants in Kinshasa, DR Congo.

METHODS

We constructed a cohort of mother-infant pairs using routinely collected clinical data. Maternal cART eligibility was based on national guidelines in effect at the time. Infants were considered LTFU after 3 failed tracking attempts after a missed visit or if more than 6 months passed since they were last seen in clinic. Statistical methods accounted for competing risks (eg, death).

RESULTS

A total of 1318 infants enrolled at a median age of 2.6 weeks (interquartile range: 2.1-6.9), at which point 24% of mothers were receiving cART. Overall, 5% of infants never returned to care after enrollment and 18% were LTFU by 18 months. The 18-month cumulative incidence of LTFU was 8% among infants whose mothers initiated cART by infant enrollment and 20% among infants whose mothers were not yet on cART. Adjusted for baseline factors, infants whose mothers were not on cART were over twice as likely to be LTFU, with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 2.75 (95% confidence limit: 1.81 to 4.16). The association remained strong regardless of maternal CD4 count at infant enrollment.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing access to cART for pregnant women could improve retention of HIV-exposed infants, thereby increasing the clinical and population-level impacts of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission interventions and access to early cART for HIV-infected infants.

Long-term outcomes of a pediatric HIV treatment program in Maputo, Mozambique: a cohort study

Objective

To describe long-term treatment outcomes of a pediatric HIV cohort in Mozambique.

Design

Retrospective analysis of routine monitoring data.

Setting

Secondary health care facilities in the Chamanculo Health District of Maputo.

Subjects

A total of 1,335 antiretroviral treatment (ART) naïve children <15 years of age enrolled in HIV care between 2002 and 2010.

Intervention

HIV care, ART (since 2003), task shifting to lower cadre nurses, counseling by lay counselors, active patient tracing, nutritional support, support by a psychologist, targeted viral load testing, and switch to second-line treatment.

Main outcome measures

Kaplan–Meier estimates for retention in care (RIC), CD4 cell percentage, body mass index for age z-score, and adjusted incidence rate ratios for attrition (death or loss to follow-up) as calculated by Poisson regression.

Results

The RIC at 6 years in the pre-ART cohort was 44% (95% confidence interval: 38–49), and the one at 8 years in the ART cohort was 70% (64–75). Risk factors for attrition included young age, low CD4 percentage, underweight, active tuberculosis, and enrollment/treatment initiation after 2006. The mean CD4 percentage increased strongly at 1 year on treatment and remained high thereafter. The body mass index for age z-score sharply increased at 1 year after treatment initiation before stabilizing at pre-ART levels thereafter.

Conclusions

Good clinical and immunological treatment outcomes up to 8 years of follow-up on ART can be achieved in a context of shortage of health workers and a high level of task-shifting approach.

Retention of Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis 2008-2013

BACKGROUND

We previously published systematic reviews of retention in care after antiretroviral therapy initiation among general adult populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated 36-month retention at 73% for publications from 2007 to 2010. This report extends the review to cover 2008-2013 and expands it to all low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013, and abstracts from AIDS and IAS from 2008-2013. We estimated retention across cohorts using simple averages and interpolated missing times through the last time reported. We estimated all-cause attrition (death, loss to follow-up) for patients receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy in routine settings in low- and middle-income countries.

RESULTS

We found 123 articles and abstracts reporting retention for 154 patient cohorts and 1,554,773 patients in 42 countries. Overall, 43% of all patients not retained were known to have died. Unweighted averages of reported retention were 78%, 71%, and 69% at 12, 24, and 36 months, after treatment initiation, respectively. We estimated 36-month retention at 65% in Africa, 80% in Asia, and 64% in Latin America and the Caribbean. From lifetable analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months at 83%, 74%, 68%, 64%, and 60%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Retention at 36 months on treatment averages 65%-70%. There are several important gaps in the evidence base, which could be filled by further research, especially in terms of geographic coverage and duration of follow-up.

Paediatric HIV treatment failure: a silent epidemic

Paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) failure is an under-recognized issue that receives inadequate attention in the field of paediatrics and within HIV treatment programmes. With paediatric ART failure rates ranging from 19.3% to over 32% in resource limited settings, a comprehensive evaluation of the causes of failure along with approaches to address barriers to treatment adherence are urgently needed.

In partnership with the local Department of Health, a pilot programme has been established by Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in Khayelitsha, South Africa, to identify and support paediatric HIV patients with high viral loads and potential treatment failure. Through detailed clinical and psychosocial evaluations and adherence support with an innovative counselling model, treatment barriers are identified and addressed.

Demographic and clinical characteristics from the cohort show a delayed median start date for ART, prolonged viraemia including a large number of patients who have never achieved viral load (VL) suppression, a low rate of regimen changes despite failure, and a high percentage of pre-adolescent and adolescent patients who have not gone through the disclosure process.

Stemming this epidemic of paediatric treatment failure requires programmatic responses to high viral loads in children, starting with improved “case finding” of previously undiagnosed HIV-infected children and adolescents. Viral load testing needs to be prioritized over CD4 count monitoring, and flagging systems to identify high VL results should be developed in clinics. Clinicians must understand that successful treatment begins with good adherence, and that simple adherence support strategies can often dramatically improve adherence. Moreover, appropriate adherence counselling should begin not when the child fails to respond to treatment. Establishing good adherence from the beginning of treatment, and supporting ongoing adherence during the milestones in these children's lives is key to sustaining treatment success in this vulnerable HIV-infected patient population.

Determinants of loss to follow-up in patients on antiretroviral treatment, South Africa, 2004-2012: a cohort study

Background

The number of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected people eligible for initiation on antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is increasing. ART programmatic success requires that patients who are taking ART remain on treatment and are followed up regularly. This study investigated factors associated with being lost to follow-up, in a cohort of patients enrolled in a pharmacovigilance study in South Africa.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational cohort study performed at one of the Medunsa National Pharmacovigilance Centre’s (MNPC) ART sentinel surveillance sites. Loss to Follow-up (LTFU) was defined as “a patient who had been followed up at the sentinel site, who had not had contact with the health facility for 180 days or more since their last recorded expected date of return or if there were 180 days or more between the expected date of return and the next clinic visit”.

Results

Out of 595 patients, 65.5 % (n = 390) were female and 23.4 % (n = 139) were LTFU. The median time on ART before LTFU was 21.5 months (interquartile range: 12.9 – 34.7 months). The incidence rate of LTFU was 103 per 1000 person-years in the first year on ART and increased to 405 per 1000 person-years in the eighth year of taking ART. Factors associated with becoming LTFU included not having a committed partner (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 2.9, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI):1.19-6.97, p = 0.019), being self-employed (aHR: 13.9, 95 % CI:2.81 - 69.06, p = 0.001), baseline CD4 count > 200 cells/ml (aHR: 3.8, 95 % CI: 1.85-7.85, p < 0.001), detectable last known Viral Load (VL) (aHR: 3.6, 95 % CI:1.98 - 6.52, p < 0.001) and a last known World Health Organisation clinical stage three or four (aHR: 2.0, 95 % CI:1.22-3.27, p = 0.006). Patients that previously had an ART adverse event had a lower risk (aHR: 0.6, 95 % CI: 0.38 - 0.99, p = 0.044) of becoming LTFU than those that had not.

Conclusion

The incidence rate of LTFU increases with additional years on ART. Intensified measures to improve patient retention on ART must be prioritised with increasing patient time on ART and in patients that are at increased risk of becoming lost to follow-up.

Pregnant women with HIV in rural Nigeria have higher rates of antiretroviral treatment initiation, but similar loss to follow-up as non-pregnant women and men

BACKGROUND

We examined antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and retention by sex and pregnancy status in rural Nigeria.

METHODS

We studied HIV-infected ART-naïve patients aged ≥15 years entering care from June 2009 to September 2013. We calculated the probability of early ART initiation and cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTFU) during the first year of ART, and examined the association between LTFU and sex/pregnancy using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The cohort included 3813 ART-naïve HIV-infected adults (2594 women [68.0%], 273 [11.8%] of them pregnant). The proportion of pregnant clients initiating ART within 90 days of enrollment (78.0%, 213/273) was higher than among non-pregnant women (54.3%,1261/2321) or men (53.0%, 650/1219), both p<0.001. Pregnant women initiated ART sooner than non-pregnant women and men (median [IQR] days from enrollment to ART initiation for pregnant women=7 days [0-21] vs 14 days [7-49] for non-pregnant women and 14 days [7-42] for men; p<0.001). Cumulative incidence of LTFU during the first year post-ART initiation was high and did not differ by sex and pregnancy status. Persons who were unemployed, bedridden, had higher CD4+ counts, and/or in earlier WHO clinical stages were more likely to be LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant women with HIV in rural Nigeria were more likely to initiate ART but were no more likely to be retained in care. Our findings underscore the importance of effective retention strategies across all patient groups, regardless of sex and pregnancy status.

Incidence and predictors of attrition from antiretroviral care among adults in a rural HIV clinic in Coastal Kenya: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to substantial declines in HIV related morbidity and mortality. However, attrition from ART care remains a major public health concern and has been identified as one of the key reportable indicators in assessing the success of ART programs. This study describes the incidence and predictors of attrition among adults initiating ART in a rural HIV clinic in Coastal Kenya.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study design was used. Adults (≥15 years) initiated ART between January 2008 and December 2010 were followed up for two years. Attrition was defined as individuals who were either reported dead or lost to follow up (LFU, ≥ 180 days late since the last clinic visit). Kaplan Meier survival probabilities and Weibull baseline hazard regression analyses were used to model the incidence and predictors of time to attrition.

Results

Of the 928 eligible participants, 308 (33.2% [95% CI, 30.2 – 36.3]) underwent attrition at an incident rate of 23.1 (95% CI, 20.6 – 25.8)/100 pyo. Attrition at 6 and 12 months was 18.4% (95% CI, 16.0 – 21.1) and 23.2% (95% CI, 19.9 – 25.3) respectively. Gender (male vs. female, adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], p-value: 1.5 [1.1 – 2.0], p = 0.014), age (15 – 24 vs. ≥ 45 years, 2.2 [1.3 – 3.7], p = 0.034) and baseline CD4 T-cell count (100 – 350 cells/uL vs. <100 cells/uL, 0.5 [0.3 – 0.7], p = 0.002) were independent predictors of time to attrition.

Conclusions

A third of individuals initiating ART were either reported dead or LFU during two years of care, with more than a half of these occurring within six months of treatment initiation. Practical and sustainable biomedical interventions and psychosocial support systems are warranted to improve ART retention in this setting.

Morbidity and mortality according to latest CD4+ cell count among HIV positive individuals in South Africa who enrolled in project Phidisa

BACKGROUND

Short-term morbidity and mortality rates for HIV positive soldiers in the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) would inform decisions about deployment and HIV disease management. Risks were determined according to the latest CD4+ cell count and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV positive individuals in the SANDF and their dependents.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 7,114 participants were enrolled and followed for mortality over a median of 4.7 years (IQR: 1.9, 7.1 years). For a planned subset (5,976), progression of disease (POD) and grade 4, potentially life-threatening events were also ascertained. CD4+ count and viral load were measured every 3 to 6 months. Poisson regression was used to compare event rates by latest CD4+ count (<50, 50-99, 100-199, 200-349, 350-499, 500+) with a focus on upper three strata, and to estimate relative risks (RRs) (ART/no ART). Median entry CD4+ was 207 cells/mm3. During follow-up over 70% were prescribed ART. Over follow-up 1,226 participants died; rates ranged from 57.6 (< 50 cells) to 0.8 (500+ cells) per 100 person years (py). Compared to those with latest CD4+ 200-349 (2.2/100 py), death rates were significantly lower (p<0.001), as expected, for those with 350-499 (0.9/100 py) and with 500+ cells (0.8/100 py). The composite outcome of death, POD or grade 4 events occurred in 2,302 participants (4,045 events); rates were similar in higher CD4+ count strata (9.4 for 350-499 and 7.9 for 500+ cells) and lower than those with counts 200-349 cells (13.5) (p<0.001). For those with latest CD4+ 350+ cells, 63% of the composite outcomes (680 of 1,074) were grade 4 events.

CONCLUSION

Rates of morbidity and mortality are lowest among those with CD4+ count of 350 or higher and rates do not differ for those with counts of 350-499 versus 500+ cells. Grade 4 events are the predominant morbidity for participants with CD4+ counts of 350+ cells.

Strategies for monitoring and evaluation of resource-limited national antiretroviral therapy programs: the two-phase design

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited settings, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs often relies on aggregated facility-level data. Such data are limited, however, because of the potential for ecological bias, although collecting detailed patient-level data is often prohibitively expensive. To resolve this dilemma, we propose the use of the two-phase design. Specifically, when the outcome of interest is binary, the two-phase design provides a framework within which researchers can resolve ecological bias through the collection of patient-level data on a sub-sample of individuals while making use of the routinely collected aggregated data to obtain potentially substantial efficiency gains.

METHODS

Between 2005-2007, the Malawian Ministry of Health conducted a one-time cross-sectional survey of 82,887 patients registered at 189 ART clinics. Using these patient data, an aggregated dataset is constructed to mimic the type of data that it routinely available. A hypothetical study of risk factors for patient outcomes at 6 months post-registration is considered. Analyses are conducted based on: (i) complete patient-level data; (ii) aggregated data; (iii) a hypothetical case-control study; (iv) a hypothetical two-phase study stratified on clinic type; and, (v) a hypothetical two-phase study stratified on clinic type and registration year. A simulation study is conducted to compare statistical power to detect an interaction between clinic type and year of registration across the designs.

RESULTS

Analyses and conclusions based solely on aggregated data may suffer from ecological bias. Collecting and analyzing patient data using either a case-control or two-phase design resolves ecological bias to provide valid conclusions. To detect the interaction between clinic type and year of registration, the case-control design would require a prohibitively large sample size. In contrast, a two-phase design that stratifies on clinic and year of registration achieves greater than 85% power with as few as 1,000 patient samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Two-phase designs have the potential to augment current M&E efforts in resource-limited settings by providing a framework for the collection and analysis of patient data. The design is cost-efficient in the sense that it often requires far fewer patients to be sampled when compared to standard designs.

Implementation and operational research: evaluating outcomes of patients lost to follow-up in a large comprehensive care treatment program in western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Academic Model Providing Access To Healthcare (AMPATH) program provides comprehensive HIV care and treatment services. Approximately, 30% of patients have become lost to follow-up (LTFU). We sought to actively trace and identify outcomes for a sample of these patients.

METHODS

LTFU was defined as missing a scheduled visit by ≥3 months. A randomly selected sample of 17% of patients identified as LTFU between January 2009 and June 2011 was generated, with sample stratification on age, antiretroviral therapy (ART) status at last visit, and facility. Chart reviews were conducted followed by active tracing. Tracing was completed by trained HIV-positive outreach workers July 2011 to February 2012. Outcomes were compared between adults and children and by ART status.

RESULTS

Of 14,811 LTFU patients, 2540 were randomly selected for tracing (2179 adults, 1071 on ART). The chart reviews indicated that 326 (12.8%) patients were not actually LTFU. Outcomes for 71% of sampled patients were determined including 85% of those physically traced. Of those with known outcomes, 21% had died, whereas 29% had disengaged from care for various reasons. The remaining patients had moved away (n = 458, 25%) or were still receiving HIV care (n = 443 total, 25%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of a large-scale sampling-based approach. A significant proportion of patients were found not to be LTFU, and further, high numbers of patients who were LTFU could not be located. Over a quarter of patients disengaged from care for various reasons including access challenges and familial influences.

Self-transfer and mortality amongst adults lost to follow-up in ART programmes in low- and middle-income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain estimates of adult patients, recorded as lost to follow-up (LTFU) within antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes, who have self-transferred care, died or truly stopped ART in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Science Direct, LILACS, IndMed and AIM databases (2003-2013) and IAS/AIDS conference abstracts (2011-2013) were searched for tracing studies reporting the proportion of traced patients found to have self-transferred, died or stopped ART. These estimates were then combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias was assessed through subgroup and sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Twenty eight studies were eligible for inclusion, reporting true outcomes for 10,806 traced patients attending approximately 258 ART facilities. None were from outside sub-Saharan Africa. Twenty three studies reported 4.5-54.4% traced LTFU patients self-transferring care, providing a pooled estimate of 18.6% (95% CI 15.8-22.0%). A significant positive association was found between rates of self-transfer and LTFU in the ART cohort. The pooled estimates for unreported deaths were 38.8% (95% CI 30.8-46.8%; 27 studies) and 28.6% (95% CI 21.9-36.0%; 20 studies) for patients stopping ART. A significant decrease in unreported deaths from 50.0% (95% CI 41.5-58.4%) to 30.0% (95% CI 21.1-38.9%) was found comparing study periods before and after 31 December 2007.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial unaccounted for transfers and deaths amongst patients LTFU confirms that retention and mortality is underestimated where the true outcomes of LTFU patients are not ascertained.

Mortality among adults transferred and lost to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Little is known about outcomes after transfer out (TFO) and loss to follow-up (LTF) and how differential outcomes might bias mortality estimates, as analyses generally censor or exclude TFOs/LTF. Using data linked to the National Population Register, we explored mortality among TFO and LTF patients compared with patients who were retained and investigated how linkage impacted on mortality estimates.

METHODS

A cohort analysis of routine data on adults with civil identification numbers starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) 2004-2009 in 4 large South African ART cohorts. The number, proportion, timing, and mortality of TFOs and LTF were reported. Mortality was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox's proportional hazards, and competing risks regression.

RESULTS

Before linkage, 1207 patients (6%) had died, 2624 (13%) were LTF, 1067 (5%) were TFO and 14,583 (75%) were retained. Compared with retained, mortality risk was 3 times higher among TFO patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42 to 3.99] and 20 times higher among LTF patients (aHR, 22.03; 95% CI: 20.05 to 24.21). Excluding early deaths after TFO or LTF, the risk was comparable among TFOs and retained (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI: 0.54 to 1.03) and higher among LTF (aHR, 2.85; 95% CI: 2.43 to 3.33). After linkage, corrected mortality was higher than site-reported mortality. Censoring did not, however, lead to substantial underestimation of mortality among TFOs.

CONCLUSIONS

Although TFO and LTF predicted mortality, the lower incidence of TFO and subsequent death compared with LTF meant that censoring TFOs did not bias mortality estimates. Future cohort analyses should explicitly consider proportions of TFO/LTF and mortality event rates.

Outcomes of antiretroviral therapy over a 10-year period of expansion: a multicohort analysis of African and Asian HIV programs

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about the evolution of program outcomes associated with rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We describe temporal trends and assess associations with mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV cohorts from 8 countries.

DESIGN

Multicohort study using electronic health records.

METHODS

Analysis included adults in 25 Médecins Sans Frontières-supported programs initiating ART between 2001 and 2011. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe time to death or LTFU and proportional hazards models to assess associations with individual and program factors.

RESULTS

ART programs (n = 132,334, median age 35 years, 61% female) expanded rapidly. Whereas 36-month mortality decreased from 22% to 9% over 5 years (≤2003-2008), LTFU increased from 11% to 21%. Hazard ratios (HR) of early (0-12 months) and late (12-72 months) LTFU increased over time, from 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83 to 1.43] and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.84 to 1.28) in 2004 to 3.29 (95% CI: 2.42 to 4.46) and 6.86 (95% CI: 4.94 to 9.53) in 2011, compared with 2001-2003. Rate of program expansion was strongly associated with increased early and late LTFU, adjusted HR (aHR) = 2.31 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.01) and HR = 2.29 (95% CI: 1.76 to 2.99), respectively, for ≥125 vs. 0-24 patients per month. Larger program size was associated with decreased early mortality (aHR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.77 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients) and increased early LTFU (aHR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.04 to 3.04 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

As ART expands in resource-limited settings, challenges remain in improving access to ART and preventing program attrition. There is an urgent need for novel and sustainable models of care to increase long-term retention of patients.

Loss to follow-up in a cohort of HIV-infected patients in a regional referral outpatient clinic in Brazil

One of the main aspects related to non-adherence to combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) for patients infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) refers to the abandonment of outpatient care. This study was aimed to estimate the loss to follow-up in outpatient HIV care at a Regional Referral Clinic (SAE) for HIV/AIDS in the city of Juiz de Fora, Brazil, and to identify associated factors and predictors. This is a prospective cohort of patients older than 18 years, under cART and regular outpatient care. The study included patients who attended medical visits during July-August 2011. Those who did not return to the clinic for new medical appointments within 90 days after the sixth month of follow up were considered lost to follow-up in outpatient care. Variables with P value ≤0.25 in the univariate analysis were included in a logistic regression model, adopting a significance level of 0.05. Among the 250 patients included in the study, 44 (17.6 %) were lost to follow up in outpatient care. Among these, 38 (86.4 %) were located in the cART delivery database system (SICLOM). Younger patients (≤43 versus >43 years) (OR 2.30 CI 1.06-5.00, P = 0.04), and patients attended by physician "E", when compared with physicians "A", "B", "C" or "D" (OR 5.90 CI 2.64-13.18, P = 0.00) were more likely to be lost to follow-up. Patients admitted in the service for 7 years or more were also more likely to be to lost to follow-up (OR 2.27 CI 1.2-4.4, P = 0.01), although this association did not remain statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Although the purpose of the study, to identify individual factors associated to loss to follow-up, positives associations with a specific physician and with patients admitted in the service for 7 years or more suggest organizational factors. Although the majority of patients lost to follow-up in outpatient care were detected by SICLOM, a detectable viral load in most of these patients suggest a quality of outpatient HIV care proved ineffective, despite the availability of cART. We conclude on the need for further studies to investigate structural factors associated to loss to follow-up when enhanced retention strategies should be implemented in order to maintain an effective outpatient HIV care.