Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis

The two chytrid pathogens of amphibians in Eurasia-climatic niches and future expansion

BACKGROUND

Climate affects the thermal adaptation and distribution of hosts, and drives the spread of Chytridiomycosis-a keratin-associated infectious disease of amphibians caused by the sister pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidi (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal). We focus on their climate-pathogen relationships in Eurasia, the only region where their geographical distributions overlap. Eurasia harbours invaded and native areas of both pathogens and the natural habitats where they co-exist, making it an ideal region to examine their environmental niche correlations. Our understanding of how climate change will affect their distribution is broadened by the differences in climate correlates and niche characteristics between Bd and Bsal in Asia and Europe. This knowledge has potential conservation implications, informing future spread of the disease in different regions.

RESULTS

We quantified the environmental niche overlap between Bd and Bsal in Eurasia using niche analyses. Results revealed partial overlap in the niche with a unique 4% of non-overlapping values for Bsal, suggesting segregation along certain climate axes. Bd tolerates higher temperature fluctuations, while Bsal requires more stable, lower temperature and wetter conditions. Projections of their Realized Climatic Niches (RCNs) to future conditions show a larger expansion of suitable ranges (SRs) for Bd compared to Bsal in both Asia and Europe, with their centroids shifting in different directions. Notably, both pathogens' highly suitable areas in Asia are expected to shrink significantly, especially under the extreme climate scenarios. In Europe, they are expected to expand significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change will impact or increase disease risk to amphibian hosts, particularly in Europe. Given the shared niche space of the two pathogens across available climate gradients, as has already been witnessed in Eurasia with an increased range expansion and niche overlap due to climate change, we expect that regions where Bsal is currently absent but salamanders are present, and where Bd is already prevalent, may be conducive for the spread of Bsal.

On the importance of invasive species niche dynamics in plant conservation management at large and local scale

Predicting the distribution of Invasive alien species (IAS) using species distribution models is promising for conservation planning. To achieve accurate predictions, it is essential to explore species niche dynamics. New approaches are necessary for bringing this analysis to real conservation management needs. Using multi-site comparisons can provide great useful insights to better understand invasion processes. Exploring the fine-scale niche overlap between IAS and native species sharing a location can be a key tool for achieving the implementation of local species conservation actions, which can play a fundamental role in the global management of IAS. This can also increase society’s awareness of the threat of IAS. In this context, here, we explored two key research demands. First, we studied the large-scale niche dynamics of the invasive species Paraserianthes lophantha (Willd.) I.C. Nielsen’s considering different invaded areas. The analysis compared niches of the native range (South Western Australia) with the Australian invaded range (eastern Australia); the native range with the European invaded range, and its full Australian range (native plus invaded range) with the European invaded range. Second, we perform a fine-scale niche overlap analysis at landscape scale in Spain. We studied the niche overlap between P. lophantha and a species with remarkable conservation interest (Quercus lusitanica Lam). All the niche analyses were realized following a well-established ordination (principal component analysis) approach where important methodological aspects were compared and analyzed. Our multi-site study of P. lophantha large-scale niche dynamics detected niche shifts between the Australian ranges demonstrating that the species is labile and may potentially adapt to further European climate conditions and spread its invasive range. Comparative analysis between the European and the full Australian ranges supports that calibrate models including the Australian invasive information is promising to accurate predict P. lophantha European potential distribution. The fine-scale study of niche overlap further explained the potential of this IAS and can be used as a model example of how these local studies can be used to promote the implementation of conservation actions in situ as a complement to large-scale management strategies.

Tolerance niche expansion and potential distribution prediction during Asian openbill bird range expansion

It is prevalent to use ecological niche models in the analysis of species expansion and niche changes. However, it is difficult to estimate the niche when alien species fail to establish in exotic areas. Here, we applied the tolerance niche concept, which means that niche of species can live and grow but preclude a species from establishing self-sustaining populations, in such fail-to-establish events. Taking the rapidly expanded bird, Asian openbill (Anastomus oscitans), as a model species, we investigated niche dynamics and its potential effects on the population by Niche A and ecospat, predicted potential distribution by biomod2. Results showed that niche expansion has occurred in two non-native populations caused by the tolerance of colder and wetter environments, and potential distribution mainly concentrated on equatorial islands. Our study suggested that the expanded niche belongs to tolerance niche concept according to the populations' dynamics and GPS tracking evidence. It is essential to consider source populations when we analyze the alien species. We recommended more consideration to the application of tolerance niche in alien species research, and there is still a need for standard measurement frameworks for analyzing the tolerance niche.

Distribution of Five Aquatic Plants Native to South America and Invasive Elsewhere under Current Climate

Biological invasions and climate pose two of the most important challenges facing global biodiversity. Certainly, climate change may intensify the impacts of invasion by allowing invasive plants to increase in abundance and further expand their ranges. For example, most aquatic alien plants in temperate climate are of tropical and subtropical origins and the northern limits of their ranges are generally determined by minimum winter temperatures, and they will probably expand their distributions northwards if climate warms. The distribution of five invasive aquatic plants in freshwater systems across continents were investigated. Their global distributions in the current climate were modeled using a recently developed ensemble species distribution model approach, specifically designed to account for dispersal constraints on the distributions of range-expanding species. It was found that the species appear capable of substantial range expansion, and that low winter temperature is the strongest factor limiting their invasion. These findings can be used to identify areas at risk of recently introduction of neophytes, and develop future monitoring programs for aquatic ecosystems, prioritizing control efforts, which enables the effective use of ecological niche models to forecast aquatic invasion in other geographic regions.

Hight S, Varone L. Ecological Niche Modeling to Calculate Ideal Sites to Introduce a Natural Enemy: The Case of Apanteles opuntiarum (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) to Control Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in North America

The cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), is an invasive species in North America where it threatens Opuntia native populations. The insect is expanding its distribution along the United States Gulf Coast. In the search for alternative strategies to reduce its impact, the introduction of a natural enemy, Apanteles opuntiarum Martínez and Berta (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), is being pursued as a biological control option. To identify promising areas to intentionally introduce A. opuntiarum for the control of C. cactorum, we estimated the overlap of fundamental ecological niches of the two species to predict their common geographic distributions using the BAM diagram. Models were based on native distributional data for both species, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the Maxent algorithm to calculate the environmental suitability of both species in North America. The environmental suitability of C. cactorum in North America was projected from Florida to Texas (United States) along the Gulf coastal areas, reaching Mexico in northern regions. Apanteles opuntiarum environmental suitability showed a substantial similarity with the calculations for C. cactorum in the United States. Intentional introductions of A. opuntiarum in the actual distribution areas of the cactus moth are predicted to be successful; A. opuntiarum will find its host in an environment conducive to its survival and dispersal.

Do selfing species have greater niche breadth? Support from ecological niche modeling

We explore the relationship between plant mating system (selfing or outcrossing) and niche breadth to gain new insights into processes that drive species distributions. Using a comparative approach with highly selfing versus highly outcrossing sister species, we test the extent to which: (1) species pairs have evolved significant niche divergence and less niche overlap, (2) selfers have wider niche breadths than outcrossers or vice versa, and (3) niches of selfers and outcrossers are defined by significant differences in environmental variables. We applied predictive ecological niche modeling approaches to estimate and contrast niche divergence, overlap and breadth, and to identify key environmental variables associated with each species' niche for seven sister species with divergent mating systems. Data from 4862 geo-referenced herbarium occurrence records were compiled for 14 species in Collinsia and Tonella (Plantaginaceae) and 19 environmental variables associated with each record. We found sister species display significant niche divergence, though not as a function of divergence time, and overall, selfers have significantly wider niche breadths compared to their outcrossing sisters. Our results suggest that a selfing mating system likely contributes to the greater capacity to reach, reproduce, establish, and adapt to new habitats, which increases niche breadth of selfers.

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

Tracking microhabitat temperature variation with iButton data loggers

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Fine-scale variation in temperature and soil moisture contribute to microhabitats across the landscape, affecting plant phenology, distribution, and fitness. The recent availability of compact and inexpensive temperature and humidity data loggers such as iButtons has facilitated research on microclimates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Here, we highlight the use of iButtons in three distinct settings: comparisons of empirical data to modeled climate data for rare rock ferns in the genus Asplenium in eastern North America; generation of fine-scale data to predict flowering time and vernalization responsiveness of crop wild relatives of chickpea from southeastern Anatolia; and measurements of extreme thermal variation of solar array installations in Vermont.

DISCUSSION

We highlight a range of challenges with iButtons, including serious limitations of the Hygrochron function that affect their utility for measuring soil moisture, and methods for protecting them from the elements and from human interference. Finally, we provide MATLAB code to facilitate the processing of raw iButton data.

Potential global distribution of Diabrotica species and the risks for agricultural production

BACKGROUND

Despite efforts in the last few decades to prevent biological invasions, agricultural pests continue to spread as a result of globalization and international trade. This study was conducted to identify suitable areas for the occurrence of four Diabrotica species and to assess the potential impact of these species in a scenario of invasion followed by spread throughout the estimated suitable regions.

RESULTS

Our findings reveal that a large proportion of the suitable areas for Diabrotica species overlap with cultivated areas. Niche analyses also demonstrated that these species occupy a small proportion of the suitable habitats available to them, indicating that, if new areas are invaded, there is a risk of spread throughout adjacent regions.

CONCLUSION

Most of the suitable areas for Diabrotica species overlap with highly productive agricultural areas, suggesting that a potential spread of these species may cause economic loss. Our study provides a valuable contribution to the development of tools aiming to predict the potential spread of these species throughout the world. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Identifying early modern human ecological niche expansions and associated cultural dynamics in the South African Middle Stone Age

The archaeological record shows that typically human cultural traits emerged at different times, in different parts of the world, and among different hominin taxa. This pattern suggests that their emergence is the outcome of complex and nonlinear evolutionary trajectories, influenced by environmental, demographic, and social factors, that need to be understood and traced at regional scales. The application of predictive algorithms using archaeological and paleoenvironmental data allows one to estimate the ecological niches occupied by past human populations and identify niche changes through time, thus providing the possibility of investigating relationships between cultural innovations and possible niche shifts. By using such methods to examine two key southern Africa archaeological cultures, the Still Bay [76-71 thousand years before present (ka)] and the Howiesons Poort (HP; 66-59 ka), we identify a niche shift characterized by a significant expansion in the breadth of the HP ecological niche. This expansion is coincident with aridification occurring across Marine Isotope Stage 4 (ca. 72-60 ka) and especially pronounced at 60 ka. We argue that this niche shift was made possible by the development of a flexible technological system, reliant on composite tools and cultural transmission strategies based more on "product copying" rather than "process copying." These results counter the one niche/one human taxon equation. They indicate that what makes our cultures, and probably the cultures of other members of our lineage, unique is their flexibility and ability to produce innovations that allow a population to shift its ecological niche.

Terrestrial mountain islands and Pleistocene climate fluctuations as motors for speciation: A case study on the genus Pseudovelia (Hemiptera: Veliidae)

This study investigated the influences of geographic isolation and climate fluctuation on the genetic diversity, speciation, and biogeography of the genus Pseudovelia (Hemiptera: Veliidae) in subtropical China and tropic Indo-China Peninsula. Species nucleotide and haplotype diversities decreased with reduction in species distribution limits. The gene tree was congruent with the taxonomy of monophyly, except for four species, P. contorta, P. extensa, P. tibialis tibialis, and P. vittiformis. The conflicts between the genes and species tree could be due to long-term isolation and incomplete lineage sorting. Diversification analysis showed that the diversification rate (0.08 sp/My shifted to 0.5 sp/My) changed at 2.1 Ma, which occurred in the early Pleistocene period. Ancestral area reconstruction suggested that subtropical species possibly evolved from the tropics region (i.e., Indo-China Peninsula). Results implied that narrow endemics harbored relatively low genetic diversity because of small effective population and genetic drift. Radiation of subtropical Pseudovelia species was rapidly promoted by Pleistocene climate fluctuations and geographic isolation. The acute rising of the Hengduan Mountain with the entire uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau induced the initial differentiation of Pseudovelia species. These results highlighted the importance of geographical isolation and climate changes in promoting speciation in mountain habitat islands.

Mapping the ecological dimensions and potential distributions of endangered relic shrubs in western Ordos biodiversity center

Potential distributions of endemic relic shrubs in western Ordos were poorly mapped, which hindered our implementation of proper conservation. Here we investigated the applicability of ecological niche modeling for endangered relic shrubs to detect areas of priority for biodiversity conservation and analyze differences in ecological niche spaces used by relic shrubs. We applied ordination and niche modeling techniques to assess main environmental drivers of five endemic relic shrubs in western Ordos, namely, Ammopiptanthus mongolicus, Amygdalus mongolica, Helianthemum songaricum, Potaninia mongolica, and Tetraena mongolica. We calculated niche overlap metrics in gridded environmental spaces and compared geographical projections of ecological niches to determine similarities and differences of niches occupied by relic shrubs. All studied taxa presented different responses to environmental factors, which resulted in a unique combination of niche conditions. Precipitation availability and soil quality characteristics play important roles in the distributions of most shrubs. Each relic shrub is constrained by a unique set of environmental conditions, the distribution of one species cannot be implied by the distribution of another, highlighting the inadequacy of one-fits-all type of conservation measure. Our stacked habitat suitability maps revealed regions around Yellow River, which are highly suitable for most species, thereby providing high conservation value.

Shift in precipitation regime promotes interspecific hybridization of introduced Coffea species

The frequency of plant species introductions has increased in a highly connected world, modifying species distribution patterns to include areas outside their natural ranges. These introductions provide the opportunity to gain new insight into the importance of flowering phenology as a component of adaptation to a new environment. Three Coffea species, C. arabica, C. canephora (Robusta), and C. liberica, native to intertropical Africa have been introduced to New Caledonia. On this archipelago, a secondary contact zone has been characterized where these species coexist, persist, and hybridize spontaneously. We investigated the impact of environmental changes undergone by each species following its introduction in New Caledonia on flowering phenology and overcoming reproductive barriers between sister species. We developed species distribution models and compared both environmental envelopes and climatic niches between native and introduced hybrid zones. Flowering phenology was monitored in a population in the hybrid zone along with temperature and precipitation sequences recorded at a nearby weather station. The extent and nature of hybridization events were characterized using chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite markers. The three Coffea species encountered weak environmental suitability compared to their native ranges when introduced to New Caledonia, especially C. arabica and C. canephora. The niche of the New Caledonia hybrid zone was significantly different from all three species' native niches based on identity tests (I Similarity and D Schoener's Similarity Indexes). This area appeared to exhibit intermediate conditions between the native conditions of the three species for temperature-related variables and divergent conditions for precipitation-related ones. Flowering pattern in these Coffea species was shown to have a strong genetic component that determined the time between the triggering rain and anthesis (flower opening), specific to each species. However, a precipitation regime different from those in Africa was directly involved in generating partial flowering overlap between species and thus in allowing hybridization and interspecific gene flow. Interspecific hybrids accounted for 4% of the mature individuals in the sympatric population and occurred between each pair of species with various level of introgression. Adaptation to new environmental conditions following introduction of Coffea species to New Caledonia has resulted in a secondary contact between three related species, which would not have happened in their native ranges, leading to hybridization and gene flow.

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid-, and then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by modeling the current and future habitat suitability for 48 invasive plant species in Switzerland and New South Wales, Australia. Both regions had contrasting climate interactions with elevation, resulting in possible different responses of species distributions to climate change. Using a species distribution modeling approach that combines data from two spatial scales, we built high-resolution species distribution models (≤ 250 m) that account for the global climatic niche of species and also finer variables depicting local climate and disturbances. We found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in each of the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. The optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in Switzerland, whereas the upward shift is far less pronounced in New South Wales where montane and subalpine elevations are already suitable. The results suggest that species most likely to invade high elevations in Switzerland will be cold-tolerant, whereas species with an affinity to moist soils are most likely to invade higher elevations in Australia. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium. However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed.

Light availability prevails over soil fertility and structure in the performance of Asian knotweeds on riverbanks: new management perspectives

Asian knotweeds (Fallopia spp.) are considered one of the world's most invasive species. Restoring habitats dominated by these exotic species requires a better understanding of the importance of abiotic factors controlling the invasive knotweeds performance. We used observational data obtained on the embankment of the Isère River (France) to study the performance of Fallopia spp. under different soil, light, and disturbance conditions. On the Isère riverbanks, light intensity assessed by light quantity transmitted through canopy was the most important factor explaining the variability observed on knotweed performance expressed as above-ground biomass per square meter. Asian knotweeds were more productive under intensive light conditions. Alternatively other factors such as mowing (twice a year), soil fertility, soil texture, position on the bank or exposure to the sun had no significant effect on knotweed biomass production. We conclude that decreasing light resources, for example, by increasing competitive pressure on sites dominated by Asian knotweeds could be included in management plans to control the populations of this invasive taxon.

Unveiling current Guanaco distribution in chile based upon niche structure of phylogeographic lineages: Andean puna to subpolar forests

Niche description and differentiation at broad geographic scales have been recent major topics in ecology and evolution. Describing the environmental niche structure of sister taxa with known evolutionary trajectories stands out as a useful exercise in understanding niche requirements. Here we model the environmental niche structure and distribution of the recently resolved phylogeography of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) lineages on the western slope of the southern Andes. Using a maximum entropy framework, field data, and information on climate, topography, human density, and vegetation cover, we identify differences between the two subspecies (L.g.cacsilensis, L.g.guanicoe) and their intermediate-hybrid lineage, that most likely determine the distribution of this species. While aridity seems to be a major factor influencing the distribution at the species-level (annual precipitation <900 mm), we also document important differences in niche specificity for each subspecies, where distribution of Northern lineage is explained mainly by elevation (mean = 3,413 m) and precipitation seasonality (mean = 161 mm), hybrid lineage by annual precipitation (mean = 139 mm), and Southern subspecies by annual precipitation (mean = 553 mm), precipitation seasonality (mean = 21 mm) and grass cover (mean = 8.2%). Among lineages, we detected low levels of niche overlap: I (Similarity Index) = 0.06 and D (Schoener's Similarity Index) = 0.01; and higher levels when comparing Northern and Southern subspecies with hybrids lineage ( I = 0.32-0.10 and D = 0.12-0.03, respectively). This suggests that important ecological and/or evolutionary processes are shaping the niche of guanacos in Chile, producing discrepancies when comparing range distribution at the species-level (81,756 km(2)) with lineages-level (65,321 km(2)). The subspecies-specific description of niche structure is provided here based upon detailed spatial distribution of the lineages of guanacos in Chile. Such description provides a scientific tool to further develop large scale plans for habitat conservation and preservation of intraspecific genetic variability for this far ranging South American camelid, which inhabits a diversity of ecoregion types from Andean puna to subpolar forests.

Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World: precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche

After its introduction into North America, Euro-Asian Phragmites australis became an aggressive invasive wetland grass along the Atlantic coast of North America. Its distribution range has since expanded to the middle, south and southwest of North America, where invasive P. australis has replaced millions of hectares of native plants in inland and tidal wetlands. Another P. australis invasion from the Mediterranean region is simultaneously occurring in the Gulf region of the United States and some countries in South America. Here, we analysed the occurrence records of the two Old World invasive lineages of P. australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion; and (iii) the current potential distribution of these two lineages. We detected local niche shifts along the East Coast of North America and the Gulf Coast of the United States for Haplotype M and around the Mississippi Delta and Florida of the United States for Med. The new niche of the introduced Haplotype M accounts for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics-subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> ca. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20th century, global warming and human-made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are ongoing and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution ranges of the two lineages may diverge from the potential distribution ranges detected in this study.

Niche conservatism and the future potential range of Epipactis helleborine (Orchidaceae)

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the current distribution of suitable niches for the invasive orchid species, Epipactis helleborine, and to estimate the possibility of its further expansion. Moreover, niche modeling tools were used to explain its rapid expansion in North America and to test the niche conservatism of the species. The maximum entropy method was used to create models of the suitable niche distribution. A database of E. helleborine localities was prepared based on the examination of herbarium specimens, information from electronic databases as well as data gathered during field works. The differences between the niches occupied by native and invasive populations were evaluated using the niche overlap and niche identity test indexes. Moreover, the coverage of the most suitable habitats for the species was measured for three future scenarios as well as for the present time model. Populations of E. helleborine occupy North American west coast habitats very similar to those preferred by native, Eurasian populations, while the expansion in the east coast is related to the niche shift. The created models of suitable niche distribution indicate that the species does not realize its potential niche in the native range. The total surface of the habitats potentially available for E. helleborine will decrease in all climate change scenarios created for 2080.

Reconsidering the specialist-generalist paradigm in niche breadth dynamics: resource gradient selection by Canada lynx and bobcat

The long-standing view in ecology is that disparity in overall resource selection is the basis for identifying niche breadth patterns, with species having narrow selection being classified "specialists" and those with broader selection being "generalists". The standard model of niche breadth characterizes generalists and specialists as having comparable levels of overall total resource exploitation, with specialists exploiting resources at a higher level of performance over a narrower range of conditions. This view has gone largely unchallenged. An alternate model predicts total resource use being lower for the specialized species with both peaking at a comparable level of performance over a particular resource gradient. To reconcile the niche breadth paradigm we contrasted both models by developing range-wide species distribution models for Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis, and bobcat, Lynx rufus. Using a suite of environmental factors to define each species' niche, we determined that Canada lynx demonstrated higher total performance over a restricted set of variables, specifically those related to snow and altitude, while bobcat had higher total performance across most variables. Unlike predictions generated by the standard model, bobcat level of exploitation was not compromised by the trade-off with peak performance, and Canada lynx were not restricted to exploiting a narrower range of conditions. Instead, the emergent pattern was that specialist species have a higher total resource utilization and peak performance value within a smaller number of resources or environmental axes than generalists. Our results also indicate that relative differences in niche breadth are strongly dependent on the variable under consideration, implying that the appropriate model describing niche breadth dynamics between specialists and generalists may be more complex than either the traditional heuristic or our modified version. Our results demonstrate a need to re-evaluate traditional, but largely untested, assumptions regarding resource utilization in species with broad and narrow niches.

Selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to predict potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion

Background

The Bean plataspid (Megacopta cribraria) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species in North America; its potential spread to soybean producing areas in the US is of great concern. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used increasingly in predicting invasive species' potential distribution; however, poor niche model transferability was sometimes reported, leading to the artifactual conclusion of niche differentiation during species' invasion.

Methodology/Principals

We aim to improve the geographical transferability of ENM via environmental variable selection to predict the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion. Sixteen environmental dimensions between native and introduced Bean plataspid populations were compared, and classified into two datasets with different degrees of discrepancy by the interquartile range (IQR) overlap in boxplot. Niche models based on these two datasets were compared in native model prediction and invading model projection. Classical niche model approaches (i.e., model calibrated on native range and transferred outside) were used to anticipate the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion.

Conclusions/Significance

Niche models based on the two datasets showed little difference in native model predictions; however, when projecting onto the introduced area, models based on the environmental datasets showing low discrepancy among ranges recovered good model transferability in predicting the newly established population of Bean plataspid in the US. Recommendations were made for selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to improve niche model transferability among these geographically separated areas. Outside of its native range, areas with invasion potential include the southeastern US in North America, southwestern Europe, southeastern South America, southern Africa, and the eastern coastal Australia.

How is the rate of climatic-niche evolution related to climatic-niche breadth?

The rate of climatic-niche evolution is important to many research areas in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology, including responses of species to global climate change, spread of invasive species, speciation, biogeography, and patterns of species richness. Previous studies have implied that clades with higher rates of climatic-niche evolution among species should have species with narrower niche breadths, but there is also evidence suggesting the opposite pattern. However, the relationships between rate and breadth have not been explicitly analyzed. Here, we examine the relationships between the rate of climatic-niche evolution and climatic-niche breadth using phylogenetic and climatic data for 250 species in the salamander family Plethodontidae, a group showing considerable variation in both rates of climatic-niche evolution and climatic-niche breadths. Contrary to some expectations, we find no general relationship between climatic-niche breadth and the rate of climatic-niche evolution. Climatic-niche breadths for some ecologically important climatic variables considered separately (temperature seasonality and annual precipitation) do show significant relationships with the rate of climatic-niche evolution, but rates are faster in clades in which species have broader (not narrower) niche breadths. In summary, our results show that narrower niche breadths are not necessarily associated with faster rates of niche evolution.

Climatic niche shift predicts thermal trait response in one but not both introductions of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis cristatellus to Miami, Florida, USA

Global change is predicted to alter environmental conditions for populations in numerous ways; for example, invasive species often experience substantial shifts in climatic conditions during introduction from their native to non-native ranges. Whether these shifts elicit a phenotypic response, and how adaptation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to phenotypic change, are key issues for understanding biological invasions and how populations may respond to local climate change. We combined modeling, field data, and a laboratory experiment to test for changing thermal tolerances during the introduction of the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus from Puerto Rico to Miami, Florida. Species distribution models and bioclimatic data analyses showed lower minimum temperatures, and greater seasonal and annual variation in temperature for Miami compared to Puerto Rico. Two separate introductions of A. cristatellus occurred in Miami about 12 km apart, one in South Miami and the other on Key Biscayne, an offshore island. As predicted from the shift in the thermal climate and the thermal tolerances of other Anolis species in Miami, laboratory acclimation and field acclimatization showed that the introduced South Miami population of A. cristatellus has diverged from its native-range source population by acquiring low-temperature acclimation ability. By contrast, the introduced Key Biscayne population showed little change compared to its source. Our analyses predicted an adaptive response for introduced populations, but our comparisons to native-range sources provided evidence for thermal plasticity in one introduced population but not the other. The rapid acquisition of thermal plasticity by A. cristatellus in South Miami may be advantageous for its long-term persistence there and expansion of its non-native range. Our results also suggest that the common assumption of no trait variation when modeling non-native species distributions is invalid.

Potential geographic distribution of brown marmorated stink bug invasion (Halyomorpha halys)

Background

The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies.

Methodology/Principals

We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP).

Conclusions/Significance

Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°–50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability.