Calcification, storm damage and population resilience of tabular corals under climate change

Severe hurricanes increase recruitment and gene flow in the clonal sponge Aplysina cauliformis

Upright branching sponges, such as Aplysina cauliformis, provide critical three-dimensional habitat for other organisms and assist in stabilizing coral reef substrata, but are highly susceptible to breakage during storms. Breakage can increase sponge fragmentation, contributing to population clonality and inbreeding. Conversely, storms could provide opportunities for new genotypes to enter populations via larval recruitment, resulting in greater genetic diversity in locations with frequent storms. The unprecedented occurrence of two Category 5 hurricanes in close succession during 2017 in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) provided a unique opportunity to evaluate whether recolonization of newly available substrata on coral reefs was due to local (e.g. re-growth of remnants, fragmentation, larval recruitment) or remote (e.g. larval transport and immigration) sponge genotypes. We sampled A. cauliformis adults and juveniles from four reefs around St. Thomas and two in St. Croix (USVI). Using a 2bRAD protocol, all samples were genotyped for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results showed that these major storm events favoured sponge larval recruitment but did not increase the genetic diversity of A. cauliformis populations. Recolonization of substratum post-storms via clonality was lower (15%) than expected and instead was mainly due to sexual reproduction (85%) via local larval recruitment. Storms did enhance gene flow among and within reef sites located south of St. Thomas and north of St. Croix. Therefore, populations of clonal marine species with low pelagic dispersion, such as A. cauliformis, may benefit from increased frequency and magnitude of hurricanes for the maintenance of genetic diversity and to combat inbreeding, enhancing the resilience of Caribbean sponge communities to extreme storm events.

Porites' coral calcifying fluid chemistry regulation under normal- and low-pH seawater conditions in Palau Archipelago: Impacts on growth properties

Ongoing ocean acidification is known to be a major threat to tropical coral reefs. To date, only few studies have evaluated the impacts of natural long-term exposure to low-pH seawater on the chemical regulation and growth of reef-building corals. This work investigated the different responses of the massive Porites coral living at normal (pHsw ~ 8.03) and naturally low-pH (pHsw ~ 7.85) seawater conditions at Palau over the last decades. Our results show that both Porites colonies maintained similar carbonate properties (pHcf, [CO32-]cf, DICcf, and Ωcf) within their calcifying fluid since 1972. However, the Porites skeleton of the more acidified conditions revealed a significantly lower density (~ 1.21 ± 0.09 g·cm-3) than the skeleton from the open-ocean site (~ 1.41 ± 0.07 g·cm-3). Overall, both Porites colonies exerted a strong biological control to maintain stable calcifying fluid carbonate chemistry that favored the calcification process, especially under low-pH conditions. However, the decline in skeletal density observed at low pH provides critical insights into Porites vulnerability to future global change.

Disturbance-Induced Changes in Population Size Structure Promote Coral Biodiversity

AbstractReef-building coral assemblages are typically species rich, yet the processes maintaining high biodiversity remain poorly understood. Disturbance has long been thought to promote coral species coexistence by reducing the strength of competition (i.e., the intermediate disturbance hypothesis [IDH]). However, such disturbance-induced effects are insufficient to inhibit competitive exclusion. Nevertheless, there are other mechanisms by which disturbance and, more generally, environmental variation can favor coexistence. Here, we develop a size-structured, stochastic coral competition model calibrated with field data from two common colony morphologies to investigate the effects of hydrodynamic disturbance on community dynamics. We show that fluctuations in wave action can promote coral species coexistence but that this occurs via interspecific differences in size-dependent mortality rather than solely via stochastic fluctuations in competition (i.e., free space availability). While this mechanism differs from that originally envisioned in the IDH, it is nonetheless a mechanism by which intermediate levels of disturbance do promote coexistence. Given the sensitivity of coexistence to disturbance frequency and intensity, anthropogenic changes in disturbance regimes are likely to affect coral assemblages in ways that are not predictable from single-population models.

Linking differences in microbial network structure with changes in coral larval settlement

Coral cover and recruitment have decreased on reefs worldwide due to climate change-related disturbances. Achieving reliable coral larval settlement under aquaculture conditions is critical for reef restoration programmes; however, this can be challenging due to the lack of reliable and universal larval settlement cues. To investigate the role of microorganisms in coral larval settlement, we undertook a settlement choice experiment with larvae of the coral Acropora tenuis and microbial biofilms grown for different periods on the reef and in aquaria. Biofilm community composition across conditioning types and time was profiled using 16S and 18S rRNA gene sequencing. Co-occurrence networks revealed that strong larval settlement correlated with diverse biofilm communities, with specific nodes in the network facilitating connections between modules comprised of low- vs high-settlement communities. Taxa associated with high-settlement communities were identified as Myxoccales sp., Granulosicoccus sp., Alcanivoraceae sp., unassigned JTB23 sp. (Gammaproteobacteria), and Pseudovibrio denitrificans. Meanwhile, taxa closely related to Reichenbachiella agariperforans, Pleurocapsa sp., Alcanivorax sp., Sneathiella limmimaris, as well as several diatom and brown algae were associated with low settlement. Our results characterise high-settlement biofilm communities and identify transitionary taxa that may develop settlement-inducing biofilms to improve coral larval settlement in aquaculture.

Divergent Effects of Ocean Warming On Byssal Attachment in Two Congener Mussel Species

Organisms rely on the integrity of the structural materials they produce to maintain a broad range of processes, such as acquiring food, resisting predators or withstanding extreme environmental forces. The production and maintenance of these biomaterials, which are often modulated by environmental conditions, can therefore have important consequences for fitness in changing climates. One well-known example of such a biomaterial is mussel byssus, an array of collagen-like fibers (byssal threads) that tethers a bivalve mollusk securely to benthic marine substrates. Byssus strength directly influences mortality from dislodgement, predation or competition and depends on the quantity and quality of byssal threads produced. We compared the temperature sensitivity of byssal attachment strength of two mussel species common to the west coast of North America, Mytilus trossulus and M. galloprovincialis, when exposed to seawater temperatures ranging from 10 to 24˚C in the laboratory. We found the two species attached equally strong in seawater ≤ 18˚C, but higher temperatures caused byssal thread production rate and quality (break force and extensibility) to be greatly reduced in M. trossulus and increased in M. galloprovincialis, leading to a 2 to 10-fold difference in overall byssus strength between the two species. Using this threshold value (18˚C), we mapped habitat for each species along the west coast of North America based on annual patterns in sea surface temperature. Estimated ranges are consistent with the current distribution of the two species and suggest a potential mechanism by which ocean warming could facilitate the northern expansion of M. galloprovincialis and displacement of native M. trossulus populations.

Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience

Remote coral reefs are thought to be more resilient to climate change due to their isolation from local stressors like fishing and pollution. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the relationship between local human influence and coral community resilience. Surprisingly, we found no relationship between human influence and resistance to disturbance and some evidence that areas with greater human development may recover from disturbance faster than their more isolated counterparts. Our results suggest remote coral reefs are imperiled by climate change, like so many other geographically isolated ecosystems, and are unlikely to serve as effective biodiversity arks. Only drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will ensure coral survival. Our results also indicate that some reefs close to large human populations were relatively resilient. Focusing research and conservation resources on these more accessible locations has the potential to provide new insights and maximize conservation outcomes.

Different population trajectories of two reef-building corals with similar life-history traits

Increases in the frequency and intensity of acute and chronic disturbances are causing declines of coral reefs world‐wide. Although quantifying the responses of corals to acute disturbances is well documented, detecting subtle responses of coral populations to chronic disturbances is less common, but can also result in altered population and community structures.

We investigated the population dynamics of two key reef‐building Merulinid coral species, Dipsastraea favus and Platygyra lamellina, with similar life‐history traits, in the Gulf of Eilat and Aqaba, Red Sea from 2015 to 2018, to assess potential differences in their population trajectories.

Demographic processes, which included rates of survival, growth, reproduction and recruitment were used to parametrize integral projection models and estimate population growth rates and the likely population trajectories of both coral species.

The survival and reproduction rates of both D. favus and P. lamellina were positively related to coral colony size, and elasticity analyses showed that large colonies most influenced population dynamics. Although both species have similar life‐history traits and growth morphologies and are generally regarded as ‘stress‐tolerant’, the populations showed contrasting trajectories—D. favus appears to be increasing whereas P. lamellina appears to be decreasing.

As many corals have long‐life expectancies, the process of local and regional decline might be subtle and slow. Ecological assessments based on total living coral coverage, morphological groups or functional traits might overlook subtle, species‐specific trends. However, demographic approaches capable of detecting subtle species‐specific population changes can augment ecological studies and provide valuable early warning signs of decline before major coral loss becomes evident.

Stony coral populations are more sensitive to changes in vital rates in disturbed environments

Reef-building corals, like many long-lived organisms, experience environmental change as a combination of separate but concurrent processes, some of which are gradual yet long-lasting, while others are more acute but short-lived. For corals, some chronic environmental stressors, such as rising temperature and ocean acidification, are thought to induce gradual changes in colonies' vital rates. Meanwhile, other environmental changes, such as the intensification of tropical cyclones, change the disturbance regime that corals experience. Here, we use a physiologically structured population model to explore how chronic environmental stressors that impact the vital rates of individual coral colonies interact with the intensity and magnitude of disturbance to affect coral population dynamics and cover. We find that, when disturbances are relatively benign, intraspecific density dependence driven by space competition partially buffers coral populations against gradual changes in vital rates. However, the impact of chronic stressors is amplified in more highly disturbed environments, because disturbance weakens the buffering effect of space competition. We also show that coral cover is more sensitive to changes in colony growth and mortality than to external recruitment, at least in open populations, and that space competition and size structure mediate the extent and pace of coral population recovery following a large-scale mortality event. Understanding the complex interplay among chronic environmental stressors, mass-mortality events, and population size structure sharpens our ability to manage and to restore coral-reef ecosystems in an increasingly disturbed future.

The projected degradation of subtropical coral assemblages by recurrent thermal stress

Subtropical coral assemblages are threatened by similar extreme thermal stress events to their tropical counterparts. Yet, the mid- and long-term thermal stress responses of corals in subtropical environments remain largely unquantified, limiting our capacity to predict their future viability. The annual survival, growth and recruitment of 311 individual corals within the Solitary Islands Marine Park (Australia) was recorded over a 3-year period (2016-2018), including the 2015/2016 thermal stress event. These data were used to parameterise integral projection models quantifying the effect of thermal stress within a subtropical coral assemblage. Stochastic simulations were also applied to evaluate the implications of recurrent thermal stress scenarios predicted by four different Representative Concentration Pathways. We report differential shifts in population growth rates (λ) among coral populations during both stress and non-stress periods, confirming contrasting bleaching responses among taxa. However, even during non-stress periods, the observed dynamics for all taxa were unable to maintain current community composition, highlighting the need for external recruitment sources to support the community structure. Across all coral taxa, projected stochastic growth rates (λ_s ) were found to be lowest under higher emissions scenarios. Correspondingly, predicted increases in recurrent thermal stress regimes may accelerate the loss of coral coverage, species diversity and structural complexity within subtropical regions. We suggest that these trends are primarily due to the susceptibility of subtropical specialists and endemic species, such as Pocillopora aliciae, to thermal stress. Similarly, the viability of many tropical coral populations at higher latitudes is highly dependent on the persistence of up-current tropical systems. As such, the inherent dynamics of subtropical coral populations appear unable to support their future persistence under unprecedented thermal disturbance scenarios.

Combining agent-based, trait-based and demographic approaches to model coral-community dynamics

The complexity of coral-reef ecosystems makes it challenging to predict their dynamics and resilience under future disturbance regimes. Models for coral-reef dynamics do not adequately account for the high functional diversity exhibited by corals. Models that are ecologically and mechanistically detailed are therefore required to simulate the ecological processes driving coral reef dynamics. Here, we describe a novel model that includes processes at different spatial scales, and the contribution of species' functional diversity to benthic-community dynamics. We calibrated and validated the model to reproduce observed dynamics using empirical data from Caribbean reefs. The model exhibits realistic community dynamics, and individual population dynamics are ecologically plausible. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of larvae produced locally, and interaction-induced reductions in growth rate are the parameters with the largest influence on community dynamics. The model provides a platform for virtual experiments to explore diversity-functioning relationships in coral reefs.

The Sensitivity of Multi-spectral Satellite Sensors to Benthic Habitat Change

Coral reef ecosystems are under stress due to human-driven climate change and coastal activities. Satellite-based monitoring approaches offer an alternative to traditional field sampling measurements for detecting coral reef composition changes, especially given the advantages in their broad spatial coverage and high temporal frequency. However, the effect of benthic composition changes on water-leaving reflectance remains underexplored. In this study, we examined benthic change detection abilities of four representative satellite sensors: Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, Planet Dove and SkySat. We measured the bottom reflectance of different benthic compositions (live coral, bleached coral, dead coral with algal cover, and sand) in the field and developed an analytical bottom-up radiative transfer model to simulate remote sensing reflectance at the water surface for different compositions at a variety of depths and in varying water clarity conditions. We found that green spectral wavelengths are best for monitoring benthic changes such as coral bleaching. Moreover, we quantified the advantages of high spatial resolution imaging for benthic change detection. Together, our results provide guidance as to the potential use of the latest generation of multi-spectral satellites for monitoring coral reef and other submerged coastal ecosystems.

Partitioning colony size variation into growth and partial mortality

Body size is a trait that broadly influences the demography and ecology of organisms. In unitary organisms, body size tends to increase with age. In modular organisms, body size can either increase or decrease with age, with size changes being the net difference between modules added through growth and modules lost through partial mortality. Rates of colony extension are independent of body size, but net growth is allometric, suggesting a significant role of size-dependent mortality. In this study, we develop a generalizable model of partitioned growth and partial mortality and apply it to data from 11 species of reef-building coral. We show that corals generally grow at constant radial increments that are size independent, and that partial mortality acts more strongly on small colonies. We also show a clear life-history trade-off between growth and partial mortality that is governed by growth form. This decomposition of net growth can provide mechanistic insights into the relative demographic effects of the intrinsic factors (e.g. acquisition of food and life-history strategy), which tend to affect growth, and extrinsic factors (e.g. physical damage, and predation), which tend to affect mortality.

The impacts of climate change on the biomechanics of animals: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change

Anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented variability in a broad range of environmental parameters. These changes will impact material properties and animal biomechanics, thereby affecting animal performance and persistence of populations. Climate change implies warming at the global level, and it may be accompanied by altered wind speeds, wave action, ocean circulation, acidification as well as increased frequency of hypoxic events. Together, these environmental drivers affect muscle function and neural control and thereby movement of animals such as bird migration and schooling behaviour of fish. Altered environmental conditions will also modify material properties of animals. For example, ocean acidification, particularly when coupled with increased temperatures, compromises calcified shells and skeletons of marine invertebrates and byssal threads of mussels. These biomechanical consequences can lead to population declines and disintegration of habitats. Integrating biomechanical research with ecology is instrumental in predicting the future responses of natural systems to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services such as fisheries and ecotourism.

Only as strong as the weakest link: structural analysis of the combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on mussel attachment

Predicting how combinations of stressors will affect failure risk is a key challenge for the field of ecomechanics and, more generally, ecophysiology. Environmental conditions often influence the manufacture and durability of biomaterials, inducing structural failure that potentially compromises organismal reproduction, growth, and survival. Species known for tight linkages between structural integrity and survival include bivalve mussels, which produce numerous byssal threads to attach to hard substrate. Among the current environmental threats to marine organisms are ocean warming and acidification. Elevated pCO₂ exposure is known to weaken byssal threads by compromising the strength of the adhesive plaque. This study uses structural analysis to evaluate how an additional stressor, elevated temperature, influences byssal thread quality and production. Mussels (Mytilus trossulus) were placed in controlled temperature and pCO₂ treatments, and then, newly produced threads were counted and pulled to failure to determine byssus strength. The effects of elevated temperature on mussel attachment were dramatic; mussels produced 60% weaker and 65% fewer threads at 25°C in comparison to 10°C. These effects combine to weaken overall attachment by 64-88% at 25°C. The magnitude of the effect of pCO₂ on thread strength was substantially lower than that of temperature and, contrary to our expectations, positive at high pCO₂ exposure. Failure mode analysis localized the effect of temperature to the proximal region of the thread, whereas pCO₂ affected only the adhesive plaques. The two stressors therefore act independently, and because their respective target regions are interconnected (resisting tension in series), their combined effects on thread strength are exactly equal to the effect of the strongest stressor. Altogether, these results show that mussels, and the coastal communities they support, may be more vulnerable to the negative effects of ocean warming than ocean acidification.

Population collapse dynamics in Acropora downingi, an Arabian/Persian Gulf ecosystem-engineering coral, linked to rising temperature

As in the tropical Atlantic, Acropora populations in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf plummeted within two decades after having been ecosystem engineers on most wave-exposed reefs since the Pleistocene. Since 1996/1998 live coral cover in the Gulf declined by over 90% in many areas, primarily due to bleaching and diseases caused by rising temperatures. In the formerly dominant table-coral species A. downingi, population dynamics corresponding to disturbance regimes was quantified in three transition matrices (lower disturbance pre-1996; moderate disturbance from 1998 to 2010 and 2013 to 2017, disturbed in 1996/1998, 2010/11/12, 2017). Increased disturbance frequency and severity caused progressive reduction in coral size, cover, and population fecundity. Small size-classes were bolstered more by partial colony mortality than sexual recruitment. Some large corals had a size refuge and resisted die-back but were also lost with increasing disturbance. Matrix and biophysical larval flow models suggested one metapopulation. Southern, Arabian, populations could be connected to northern, Iranian, populations but this connectivity was lost under assumptions of pelagic larval duration at rising temperatures shortened to a third. Then, the metapopulation disintegrated into isolated populations. Connectivity required to avoid extinctions increased exponentially with disturbance frequency and correlation of disturbances across the metapopulation. Populations became unsustainable at eight disturbances in 15 years, when even highest theoretical recruitment no longer compensated mortality. This lethal disturbance frequency was 3-fold that of the moderately disturbed monitoring period and 4-fold of the preceding low-disturbance period-suggesting ongoing shortening of the disturbance-free period. Observed population collapse and environmental changes in the Gulf suggest that A. downingi is heading toward at least functional extinction mainly due to increasingly frequent temperature-induced mortality events, clearly linked to climate change.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

Ocean acidification affects coral growth by reducing skeletal density

Ocean acidification (OA) is considered an important threat to coral reef ecosystems, because it reduces the availability of carbonate ions that reef-building corals need to produce their skeletons. However, while theory predicts that coral calcification rates decline as carbonate ion concentrations decrease, this prediction is not consistently borne out in laboratory manipulation experiments or in studies of corals inhabiting naturally low-pH reefs today. The skeletal growth of corals consists of two distinct processes: extension (upward growth) and densification (lateral thickening). Here, we show that skeletal density is directly sensitive to changes in seawater carbonate ion concentration and thus, to OA, whereas extension is not. We present a numerical model of Porites skeletal growth that links skeletal density with the external seawater environment via its influence on the chemistry of coral calcifying fluid. We validate the model using existing coral skeletal datasets from six Porites species collected across five reef sites and use this framework to project the impact of 21st century OA on Porites skeletal density across the global tropics. Our model predicts that OA alone will drive up to 20.3 ± 5.4% decline in the skeletal density of reef-building Porites corals.

Do reef corals age?

Hydra is emerging as a model organism for studies of ageing in early metazoan animals, but reef corals offer an equally ancient evolutionary perspective as well as several advantages, not least being the hard exoskeleton which provides a rich fossil record as well as a record of growth and means of ageing of individual coral polyps. Reef corals are also widely regarded as potentially immortal at the level of the asexual lineage and are assumed not to undergo an intrinsic ageing process. However, putative molecular indicators of ageing have recently been detected in reef corals. While many of the large massive coral species attain considerable ages (>600 years) there are other much shorter-lived species where older members of some populations show catastrophic mortality, compared to juveniles, under environmental stress. Other studies suggestive of ageing include those demonstrating decreased reproduction, increased susceptibility to oxidative stress and disease, reduced regeneration potential and declining growth rate in mature colonies. This review aims to promote interest and research in reef coral ageing, both as a useful model for the early evolution of ageing and as a factor in studies of ecological impacts on reef systems in light of the enhanced effects of environmental stress on ageing in other organisms.

3D photogrammetry quantifies growth and external erosion of individual coral colonies and skeletons

Growth and contraction of ecosystem engineers, such as trees, influence ecosystem structure and function. On coral reefs, methods to measure small changes in the structure of microhabitats, driven by growth of coral colonies and contraction of skeletons, are extremely limited. We used 3D reconstructions to quantify changes in the external structure of coral colonies of tabular Acropora spp., the dominant habitat-forming corals in shallow exposed reefs across the Pacific. The volume and surface area of live colonies increased by 21% and 22%, respectively, in 12 months, corresponding to a mean annual linear extension of 5.62 cm yr-1 (±1.81 SE). The volume and surface area of dead skeletons decreased by 52% and 47%, respectively, corresponding to a mean decline in linear extension of -29.56 cm yr-1 (±7.08 SE), which accounted for both erosion and fragmentation of dead colonies. This is the first study to use 3D photogrammetry to assess fine-scale structural changes of entire individual colonies in situ, quantifying coral growth and contraction. The high-resolution of the technique allows for detection of changes on reef structure faster than other non-intrusive approaches. These results improve our capacity to measure the drivers underpinning ecosystem biodiversity, status and trajectory.

Effects of increasing temperature alone and combined with copper exposure on biochemical and physiological parameters in the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Mussismilia harttii

Effects of increasing temperature alone and in combination with exposure to dissolved copper (Cu) were evaluated in the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Mussismilia harttii using a marine mesocosm system. Endpoints analyzed included parameters involved in metabolism [maximum photosynthetic capacity of zooxanthellae (Fv/Fm), chlorophyll a and ATP concentrations], calcification [carbonic anhydrase (CA) and Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-ATPase activity], and oxidative status [antioxidant capacity against peroxyl radicals (ACAP) and lipid peroxidation (LPO)]. Coral polyps were collected, acclimated and exposed to three increasing temperature conditions [25.0±0.1°C (control; average temperature of local seawater), 26.6±0.1°C and 27.3±0.1°C] using a marine mesocosm system. They were tested alone and in combination with four environmentally relevant concentrations of dissolved Cu in seawater [2.9±0.7 (control; average concentration in local seawater), 3.8±0.8, 5.4±0.9 and 8.6±0.3μg/L] for 4, 8 and 12days. Fv/Fm reduced over the experimental period with increasing temperature. Combination of increasing temperature with Cu exposure enhanced this effect. CA and Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-ATPase activities increased up to 8days of exposure, but recovered back after 12days of experiment. Short-term exposure to increasing temperature or long-term exposure to the combination of stressors reduced LPO, suggesting the occurrence of a remodeling process in the lipid composition of biological membranes. ACAP, ATP and chlorophyll a were not significantly affected by the stressors. These findings indicate that increasing temperature combined with exposure to dissolved Cu increase susceptibility to bleaching and reduce growth in the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral M. harttii.

Variation in the health and biochemical condition of the coral Acropora tenuis along two water quality gradients on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

This study explores how plasticity in biochemical attributes, used as indicators of health and condition, enables the coral Acropora tenuis to respond to differing water quality regimes in inshore regions of the Great Barrier Reef. Health attributes were monitored along a strong and weak water quality gradient, each with three reefs at increasing distances from a major river source. Attributes differed significantly only along the strong gradient; corals grew fastest, had the least dense skeletons, highest symbiont densities and highest lipid concentrations closest to the river mouth, where water quality was poorest. High nutrient and particulate loads were only detrimental to skeletal density, which decreased as linear extension increased, highlighting a trade-off. Our study underscores the importance of assessing multiple health attributes in coral reef monitoring. For example, autotrophic indices are poor indicators of coral health and condition, but improve when combined with attributes like lipid content and biomass.

The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change

Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.

Population structure of the hydrocoral Millepora platyphylla in habitats experiencing different flow regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia

While the fire coral Millepora platyphylla is an important component of Indo-Pacific reefs, where it thrives in a wide range of environments, the ecological and biological processes driving its distribution and population structure are not well understood. Here, we quantified this species’ population structure in five habitats with contrasting hydrodynamic regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia; two in the fore reef: mid and upper slopes, and three in the lagoon: back, fringing and patch reefs. A total of 3651 colonies of fire corals were mapped and measured over 45,000 m² of surveyed reef. Due to the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation in response to strong water movement, hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. waves, pass and lagoonal circulation) corresponded to marked differences in colony size distributions, morphology and recruitment dynamics among habitats. The size structure varied among reef habitats with higher proportions of larger colonies in calm nearshore reefs (fringing and patch reefs), while populations were dominated by smaller colonies in the exposed fore reefs. The highest densities of fire corals were recorded in fore reef habitats (0.12–0.20 n.m^-2) where the proportion of recruits and juveniles was higher at mid slope populations (49.3%) than on the upper slope near where waves break (29.0%). In the latter habitat, most colonies grew as vertical sheets on encrusting bases making them more vulnerable to colony fragmentation, whereas fire corals were encrusting or massive in all other habitats. The lowest densities of M. platyphylla occurred in lagoonal habitats (0.02–0.04 n.m^-2) characterized by a combination of low water movement and other physical and biological stressors. This study reports the first evidence of population structure of fire corals in two common reef environments and illustrates the importance of water flow in driving population dynamic processes of these reef-building species.

Reproductive output of a non-zooxanthellate temperate coral is unaffected by temperature along an extended latitudinal gradient

Global environmental change, in marine ecosystems, is associated with concurrent shifts in water temperature, circulation, stratification, and nutrient input, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Variations in seawater temperature might alter physiological functioning, reproductive efficiency, and demographic traits of marine organisms, leading to shifts in population size and abundance. Differences in temperature tolerances between organisms can identify individual and ecological characteristics, which make corals able to persist and adapt in a climate change context. Here we investigated the possible effect of temperature on the reproductive output of the solitary non-zooxanthellate temperate coral Leptopsammia pruvoti, along an 8° latitudinal gradient. Samples have been collected in six populations along the gradient and each polyp was examined using histological and cyto-histometric analyses. We coupled our results with previous studies on the growth, demography, and calcification of L. pruvoti along the same temperature gradient, and compared them with those of another sympatric zooxanthellate coral Balanophyllia europaea to understand which trophic strategy makes the coral more tolerant to increasing temperature. The non-zooxanthellate species seemed to be quite tolerant to temperature increases, probably due to the lack of the symbiosis with zooxanthellae. To our knowledge, this is the first field investigation of the relationship between reproductive output and temperature increase of a temperate asymbiotic coral, providing novel insights into the poorly studied non-zooxanthellate scleractinians.

Fitting state-space integral projection models to size-structured time series data to estimate unknown parameters

Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. We present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using nine years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus, and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions.

Fungal symbiosis and precipitation alter traits and dune building by the ecosystem engineer, Ammophila breviligulata

Ecosystem engineer species influence their community and ecosystem by creating or altering the physical structure of habitats. The function of ecosystem engineers is variable and can depend on both abiotic and biotic factors. Here we make use of a primary successional system to evaluate the direct and interactive effects of climate change (precipitation) and fungal endophyte symbiosis on population traits and ecosystem function of the ecosystem engineering grass species, Ammophila breviligulata. We manipulated endophyte presence in A. breviligulata in combination with rain-out shelters and rainfall additions in a factorial field experiment established in 2010 on Lake Michigan sand dunes. We monitored plant traits, survival, growth, and sexual reproduction of A. breviligulata from 2010-2013, and quantified ecosystem engineering as the sand accumulation rate. Presence of the endophyte in A. breviligulata increased vegetative growth by up to 19%, and reduced sexual reproduction by up to 46% across all precipitation treatments. Precipitation was a less significant factor than endophyte colonization for A. breviligulata growth. Reduced precipitation increased average leaf number per tiller but had no other effects on plant traits. Changes in A. breviligulata traits corresponded to increases in sand accumulation in plots with the endophyte as well as in plots with reduced precipitation. Sand accumulation is a key ecosystem function in these primary successional habitats, and so microbial symbiosis in this ecosystem engineer could lead to direct effects on the value of these dune habitats for humans.

Resilience of branching and massive corals to wave loading under sea level rise--a coupled computational fluid dynamics-structural analysis

Measurements of coral structural strength are coupled with a fluid dynamics-structural analysis to investigate the resilience of coral to wave loading under sea level rise and a typical Great Barrier Reef lagoon wave climate. The measured structural properties were used to determine the wave conditions and flow velocities that lead to structural failure. Hydrodynamic modelling was subsequently used to investigate the type of the bathymetry where coral is most vulnerable to breakage under cyclonic wave conditions, and how sea level rise (SLR) changes this vulnerability. Massive corals are determined not to be vulnerable to wave induced structural damage, whereas branching corals are susceptible at wave induced orbital velocities exceeding 0.5m/s. Model results from a large suite of idealised bathymetry suggest that SLR of 1m or a loss of skeleton strength of order 25% significantly increases the area of reef flat where branching corals are exposed to damaging wave induced flows.

How do environmental factors influence life cycles and development? An experimental framework for early-diverging metazoans

Ecological developmental biology (eco-devo) explores the mechanistic relationships between the processes of individual development and environmental factors. Recent studies imply that some of these relationships have deep evolutionary origins, and may even pre-date the divergences of the simplest extant animals, including cnidarians and sponges. Development of these early diverging metazoans is often sensitive to environmental factors, and these interactions occur in the context of conserved signaling pathways and mechanisms of tissue homeostasis whose detailed molecular logic remain elusive. Efficient methods for transgenesis in cnidarians together with the ease of experimental manipulation in cnidarians and sponges make them ideal models for understanding causal relationships between environmental factors and developmental mechanisms. Here, we identify major questions at the interface between animal evolution and development and outline a road map for research aimed at identifying the mechanisms that link environmental factors to developmental mechanisms in early diverging metazoans. Also watch the Video Abstract.

Mechanical vulnerability explains size-dependent mortality of reef corals

Understanding life history and demographic variation among species within communities is a central ecological goal. Mortality schedules are especially important in ecosystems where disturbance plays a major role in structuring communities, such as coral reefs. Here, we test whether a trait-based, mechanistic model of mechanical vulnerability in corals can explain mortality schedules. Specifically, we ask whether species that become increasingly vulnerable to hydrodynamic dislodgment as they grow have bathtub-shaped mortality curves, whereas species that remain mechanically stable have decreasing mortality rates with size, as predicted by classical life history theory for reef corals. We find that size-dependent mortality is highly consistent between species with the same growth form and that the shape of size-dependent mortality for each growth form can be explained by mechanical vulnerability. Our findings highlight the feasibility of predicting assemblage-scale mortality patterns on coral reefs with trait-based approaches.

Effects of ocean acidification on the dissolution rates of reef-coral skeletons

Ocean acidification threatens the foundation of tropical coral reefs. This study investigated three aspects of ocean acidification: (i) the rates at which perforate and imperforate coral-colony skeletons passively dissolve when pH is 7.8, which is predicted to occur globally by 2100, (ii) the rates of passive dissolution of corals with respect to coral-colony surface areas, and (iii) the comparative rates of a vertical reef-growth model, incorporating passive dissolution rates, and predicted sea-level rise. By 2100, when the ocean pH is expected to be 7.8, perforate Montipora coral skeletons will lose on average 15 kg CaCO₃ m⁻² y⁻¹, which is approximately −10.5 mm of vertical reduction of reef framework per year. This rate of passive dissolution is higher than the average rate of reef growth over the last several millennia and suggests that reefs composed of perforate Montipora coral skeletons will have trouble keeping up with sea-level rise under ocean acidification. Reefs composed of primarily imperforate coral skeletons will not likely dissolve as rapidly, but our model shows they will also have trouble keeping up with sea-level rise by 2050.

A time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance study of Mediterranean scleractinian corals reveals skeletal-porosity sensitivity to environmental changes

Mediterranean corals are a natural model for studying global warming, as the Mediterranean basin is expected to be one of the most affected regions and the increase in temperature is one of the greatest threats for coral survival. We have analyzed for the first time with time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR) the porosity and pore-space structure, important aspects of coral skeletons, of two scleractinian corals, Balanophyllia europaea (zooxanthellate) and Leptopsammia pruvoti (nonzooxanthellate), taken from three different sites on the western Italian coast along a temperature gradient. Comparisons have been made with mercury intrusion porosimetry and scanning electron microscopy images. TD-NMR parameters are sensitive to changes in the pore structure of the two coral species. A parameter, related to the porosity, is larger for L. pruvoti than for B. europaea, confirming previous non-NMR results. Another parameter representing the fraction of the pore volume with pore sizes of less than 10-20 μm is inversely related, with a high degree of statistical significance, to the mass of the specimen and, for B. europaea, to the temperature of the growing site. This effect in the zooxanthellate species, which could reduce its resistance to mechanical stresses, may depend on an inhibition of the photosynthetic process at elevated temperatures and could have particular consequences in determining the effects of global warming on these species.

Regional decline in growth rates of massive Porites corals in Southeast Asia

This study reports the first well-replicated analysis of continuous coral growth records from warmer water reefs (mean annual sea surface temperatures (SST) >28.5 °C) around the Thai-Malay Peninsula in Southeast Asia. Based on analyses of 70 colonies sampled from 15 reefs within six locations, region-wide declines in coral calcification rate (ca. 18.6%), linear extension rate (ca. 15.4%) and skeletal bulk density (ca. 3.9%) were observed over a 31-year period from 1980 to 2010. Decreases in calcification and linear extension rates were observed at five of the six locations and ranged from ca. 17.2-21.6% and ca. 11.4-19.6%, respectively, whereas decline in skeletal bulk density was a consequence of significant reductions at only two locations (ca. 6.9% and 10.7%). A significant link between region-wide growth rates and average annual SST was found, and Porites spp. demonstrated a high thermal threshold of ca. 29.4 °C before calcification rates declined. Responses at individual locations within the region were more variable with links between SST and calcification rates being significant at only four locations. Rates of sea temperature warming at locations in the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean) (ca. 1.3 °C per decade) were almost twice those in the South China Sea (Pacific Ocean) (ca. 0.7 °C per decade), but this was not reflected in the magnitude of calcification declines at corresponding locations. Considering that massive Porites spp. are major reef builders around Southeast Asia, this region-wide growth decline is a cause for concern for future reef accretion rates and resilience. However, this study suggests that the future rates and patterns of change within the region are unlikely to be uniform or dependent solely on the rates of change in the thermal environment.

Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change

There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1) environmental exposure; 2) ecological sensitivity; 3) ecological recovery potential; 4) social sensitivity; and 5) social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.