Herpes Zoster Risk Reduction through Exposure to Chickenpox Patients: A Systematic Multidisciplinary Review

Efficacy of Intravenous Lidocaine and Magnesium in the Management of Herpes Zoster Neuritis and Postherpetic Neuralgia: A Case Series

OBJECTIVES

Herpes zoster is a common disease encountered in clinical practice. The neuropathic pain caused by herpes zoster can be severe enough to interfere with daily life in challenging cases. Although it is said that intervening as early as possible after the onset of the disease improves outcomes, there are some cases that are difficult to treat as immediate interventional therapy is not possible. While there are some reports on the efficacy of intravenous magnesium and lidocaine, we investigated the efficacy of intravenous magnesium and lidocaine in patients with herpes zoster neuritis and postherpetic neuralgia. Patient criteria: A total of 23 patients with herpes zoster neuritis and postherpetic neuralgia were included in the study. We included only cases in which immediate interventional therapy was not possible.

METHODS

The treatment protocol was an intravenous infusion of a combination of 1.2 g of magnesium and 100 mg of lidocaine for one hour every week for four weeks (five times in total). Patients were assessed using the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) for pain before and after the treatment at week zero and before the treatment at weeks one, two, three, and four.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant difference between the median NRS before treatment at week zero and the median NRS before treatment at week one. Similarly, there was a statistically significant difference between the median NRS before treatment at week zero and the median NRS before treatment at weeks two, three, and four. In addition, the NRS tended to decrease as the number of treatments increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Intravenous lidocaine and magnesium may be effective for herpes zoster neuritis and postherpetic neuralgia. It may be a treatment method for when immediate interventional therapy is not possible.

An economic evaluation and incremental analysis of the cost effectiveness of three universal childhood varicella vaccination strategies for Ireland

BACKGROUND

The cost effectiveness of childhood varicella vaccination is uncertain, as evidenced by variation in national health policies. Within the European Economic Area (EEA), only 10 of 30 countries offer universally funded childhood varicella vaccination. This study estimates the cost effectiveness of universal childhood varicella vaccination for one EEA country (Ireland), highlighting the difference in cost effectiveness between alternative vaccination strategies.

METHODS

An age-structured dynamic transmission model, simulating varicella zoster virus transmission, was developed to analyse the impact of three vaccination strategies; one-dose at 12 months old, two-dose at 12 and 15 months old (short-interval), and two-dose at 12 months and five years old (long-interval). The analysis adopted an 80-year time horizon and considered payer and societal perspectives. Clinical effectiveness was based on cases of varicella and subsequently herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia avoided, and outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented in 2022 Irish Euro and cost effectiveness was interpreted with reference to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

From the payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a one-dose strategy, compared with no vaccination, was estimated at €8,712 per QALY gained. The ICER for the next least expensive strategy, two-dose long-interval, compared with one-dose, was estimated at €45,090 per QALY gained. From a societal perspective, all three strategies were cost-saving compared with no vaccination; the two-dose short-interval strategy dominated, yielding the largest cost savings and health benefits. Results were stable across a range of sensitivity and scenario analyses.

CONCLUSION

A one-dose strategy was highly cost effective from the payer perspective, driven by a reduction in hospitalisations. Two-dose strategies were cost saving from the societal perspective. These results should be considered alongside other factors such as acceptability of a new vaccine within the overall childhood immunisation schedule, programme objectives and budget impact.

Throwing out old dogma: time for introduction of universal VZV vaccination in the UK

There has been a reticence to introduce universal varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccines in the UK because of a theoretical concern of increased herpes zoster infections. However, this has not been borne out in real-world data. Here, I argue that, in reality, many parents are vaccinating their children privately and, thus, we do not know the degree of inequity that this creates. The fairest option going forward is to introduce universal VZV vaccination in the UK.

Modelling varicella vaccination - What does a lack of surge in herpes zoster incidence tell us about exogenous boosting?

BACKGROUND

For decades, assessments of the impact of universal varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) have been made using mathematical modelling. Decreased virus circulation and the resulting diminished exogenous boosting have been predicted to lead to a surge in HZ incidence. Lately, the exogenous boosting hypothesis has been challenged due to a lack of an extensive surge in HZ incidence in countries with, by now long-standing universal varicella vaccination.

METHODS

In a deterministic compartmental transmission model of varicella zoster virus disease, we model various levels and duration of protection from boosting to explore the impact of successful childhood varicella vaccination on HZ incidence.

RESULTS

Considering total HZ incidence, lifelong and strong protection from boosting give a stable incidence of HZ for about 60 years followed by a decline, whereas lifelong intermediate protection leads to a decline. So does weak protection of intermediate duration. Full and short protection, lead to a small surge, while full and intermediate protection lead to the largest HZ surge. HZ incidence by age group show that total incidence is the result of opposing increasing and decreasing trends in the various age groups over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of an extensive surge in HZ incidence after varicella vaccination can, especially during the first 20-30 years, occur in either strong, intermediate or weak boosting scenarios. The impact seems to depend on an interplay of the protective level and duration of the protection in determining the basic reactivation rate and the proportion of the population that is susceptible at the start of vaccination. However, the picture depends on whether the entire population or specific age groups are observed.

Routine varicella vaccination program and hospitalization for herpes zoster in Japan

Whether reducing exposure to varicella by the implementation of the routine varicella vaccination program for children leads to increased incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to identify the trend in the hospitalization associated with HZ before and after the introduction of routine varicella vaccination by using nationally representative data from an inpatient database in Japan. Data were obtained on the number of inpatients hospitalized for HZ from the "Survey on the effect of the introduction of Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) database" and the total population in Japan from the Population Estimates created by the former Statistics Bureau between fiscal years 2013 and 2018. The data from the DPC hospitals only and all hospitals in the survey were analyzed separately. The trends in the annual incidence of HZ hospitalization were identified. The trends in the annual hospitalization for HZ per 100,000 persons were then analyzed by age group (0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-79, and ≥80 years of age). The annual number of hospitalizations for HZ was approximately 20,000 in the DPC hospitals and 25,000 in all hospitals, showing no upward trend. The age-specific annual hospitalization rate for HZ did not increase in all the age groups. As age increased, the hospitalization rate also increased. This study presents no upward trend in the hospitalizations for HZ after the implementation of the routine varicella vaccination program in Japan.

Clinical Manifestations of Herpes Zoster Associated with Complications in Children

Herpes zoster (HZ) is caused by latent varicella-zoster virus (VZV) reactivation when VZV-specific cell-mediated immunity declines. Information on HZ in children is limited. Therefore, we retrospectively investigated HZ's clinical course and complications in children. We extracted the outpatient and hospitalization medical records of pediatric patients (<19 years) primarily diagnosed with HZ (ICD-10 B02 code) between January 2010 and November 2020. HZ was defined as a typical unilateral dermatomal vesicular rash where HZ was the treating physician's primary diagnosis. Recognized HZ complications included combined bacterial skin infection, ophthalmic zoster, zoster oticus without facial paralysis, meningitis, and PHN. We identified 602 HZ cases, among which 54 developed HZ complications and were included in our analysis. The median age was 14.7 years, most patients were aged ≥13 years (42, 79%), and none were aged <4 years. Fifty-three were immunocompetent, and only one had systemic lupus erythematosus. The most frequent complication was zoster ophthalmicus (n = 26, 48%). HZ complications were also observed in immunocompetent or vaccinated children exhibiting a head or neck rash before and after VZV immunization. Current VZV vaccination programs may be insufficient in preventing HZ complications. Therefore, close varicella and HZ burden monitoring and the establishment of effective VZV vaccination programs are imperative.

Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Norway has not implemented universal varicella vaccination, despite the considerable clinical and economic burden of varicella disease.

METHODS

An existing dynamic transmission model of varicella infection was calibrated to age-specific seroprevalence rates in Norway. Six two-dose vaccination strategies were considered, consisting of combinations of two formulations each of a monovalent varicella vaccine (Varivax® or Varilrix®) and a quadrivalent vaccine against measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (ProQuad® or PriorixTetra®), with the first dose given with a monovalent vaccine at age 15 months, and the second dose with either a monovalent or quadrivalent vaccine at either 18 months, 7 or 11 years. Costs were considered from the perspectives of both the health care system and society. Quality-adjusted life-years saved and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios relative to no vaccination were calculated. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of vaccine efficacy, price, the costs of a lost workday and of inpatient and outpatient care, vaccination coverage, and discount rate.

RESULTS

In the absence of varicella vaccination, the annual incidence of natural varicella is estimated to be 1,359 per 100,000 population, and the cumulative numbers of varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over 50 years are projected to be 1.81 million, 10,161, and 61, respectively. Universal varicella vaccination is projected to reduce the natural varicella incidence rate to 48-59 per 100,000 population, depending on the vaccination strategy, and to reduce varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 75-85%, 67-79%, and 75-79%, respectively. All strategies were cost-saving, with the most cost-saving as two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 7 years (payer perspective) and two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 18 months (societal perspective).

CONCLUSIONS

All modeled two-dose varicella vaccination strategies are projected to lead to substantial reductions in varicella disease and to be cost saving compared to no vaccination in Norway.

Cost-effectiveness of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Sweden: An economic evaluation using a dynamic transmission model

OBJECTIVES

Comprehensive cost-effectiveness analyses of introducing varicella and/or herpes zoster vaccination in the Swedish national vaccination programme.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analyses based on epidemiological results from a specifically developed transmission model.

SETTING

National vaccination programme in Sweden, over an 85- or 20-year time horizon depending on the vaccination strategy.

PARTICIPANTS

Hypothetical cohorts of people aged 12 months and 65-years at baseline.

INTERVENTIONS

Four alternative vaccination strategies; 1, not to vaccinate; 2, varicella vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at age 12 months and a second dose at age 18 months; 3, herpes zoster vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at 65 years of age; and 4, both vaccine against varicella and herpes zoster with the before-mentioned strategies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Accumulated cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for each strategy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

RESULTS

It would be cost-effective to vaccinate against varicella (dominant), but not to vaccinate against herpes zoster (ICER of EUR 200,000), assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of EUR 50,000 per QALY. The incremental analysis between varicella vaccination only and the combined programme results in a cost per gained QALY of almost EUR 1.6 million.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from this study are central components for policy-relevant decision-making, and suggest that it was cost-effective to introduce varicella vaccination in Sweden, whereas herpes zoster vaccination with the live attenuated vaccine for the elderly was not cost-effective-the health effects of the latter vaccination cannot be considered reasonable in relation to its costs. Future observational and surveillance studies are needed to make reasonable predictions on how boosting affects the herpes zoster incidence in the population, and thus the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme against varicella. Also, the link between herpes zoster and sequelae need to be studied in more detail to include it suitably in health economic evaluations.

The impact of two-dose varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster incidence in South Korea using a mathematical model with changing population demographics

BACKGROUND

In South Korea, one-dose varicella vaccination was introduced to the National Immunization Program in 2005, but varicella outbreaks have continued to occur. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy is considered.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured deterministic compartment model using Korean population projection data. The impact of adding a second dose of varicella vaccine on varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) epidemiology was assessed under four different vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios (base, moderate, lowest, highest) and the optimal timing of the second vaccine dose (18 months, 4, 5, or 6 years of age) was examined over the period 2020-2065.

RESULTS

A two-dose vaccination schedule reduced the cumulative varicella incidence by > 90% compared to no vaccination, regardless of the VE. The additional reduction attributable to a second dose compared to a single dose was greatest (82%) with the lowest VE scenario. A second dose at 6 years of age reduced the varicella incidence at a population level, whereas a second dose at 18 months of age reduced the varicella incidence primarily in the target birth cohorts. Routine vaccination at the age of 18 months with a catch-up vaccination of 6-year-olds was the optimal strategy for birth cohort and population-level control. HZ incidence continued to increase under no vaccination scenario, which represents the effect of aging population. Under a two-dose scenario, the additional increase in HZ incidence attributable to the reduced exogenous boosting was small relative to a one-dose scenario and a further reduction in HZ cases was observed.

CONCLUSION

A two-dose varicella vaccination schedule would significantly reduce varicella and HZ incidence in the long term. A second dose at the age of 18 months with a catch-up vaccination of 6-year-olds would be optimal for controlling varicella in South Korea.

Recurrent Herpes Zoster Ophthalmicus in a Patient With a Novel Toll-Like Receptor 3 Variant Linked to Compromised Activation Capacity in Fibroblasts

BACKGROUND

Herpes zoster ophthalmicus occurs primarily in elderly or immunocompromised individuals after reactivation of varicella zoster virus (VZV). Recurrences of zoster ophthalmicus are uncommon because the reactivation efficiently boosts anti-VZV immunity. A 28-year-old female presented to our clinic with a history of multiple recurrences of zoster ophthalmicus.

METHODS

Whole-exome sequencing (WES), analyses of VZV T-cell immunity, and pathogen recognition receptor function in primary antigen-presenting cells (APCs) and fibroblasts were performed.

RESULTS

Normal VZV-specific T-cell immunity and antibody response were detected. Whole-exome sequencing identified a heterozygous nonsynonymous variant (c.2324C > T) in the Toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3) gene resulting in formation of a premature stop-codon. This alteration could potentially undermine TLR3 signaling in a dominant-negative fashion. Therefore, we investigated TLR3 signaling responses in APCs and fibroblasts from the patient. The APCs responded efficiently to stimulation with TLR3 ligands, whereas the responses from the fibroblasts were compromised.

CONCLUSIONS

We report a novel TLR3 variant associated with recurrent zoster ophthalmicus. Toll-like receptor 3 responses that were unaffected in APCs but diminished in fibroblasts are in line with previous reports linking TLR3 deficiency with herpes simplex virus encephalitis. Mechanisms involving compromised viral sensing in infected cells may thus be central to the described immunodeficiency.

The Impact of Varicella Vaccination on the Incidence of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in the United States: Updated Evidence From Observational Databases, 1991-2016

BACKGROUND

Universal childhood vaccination against varicella began in the United States as a 1-dose schedule in 1996, changing to a 2-dose schedule in 2006. The exogenous boosting hypothesis, which postulates that reexposure to circulating wild-type varicella delays the onset of herpes zoster, predicts a transient increase in the incidence of herpes zoster, peaking in adults 15-35 years after the start of varicella vaccination.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of administrative claims data from the MarketScan Commercial and Medicare databases between 1991-2016. Outcome measures were the incidences of herpes zoster per 100 000 person-years, by calendar year and age category, and the annual rates of change in herpes zoster by age category, in an interrupted time series regression analysis, for the periods of 1991-1995 (prevaccine), 1996-2006 (1-dose vaccination period), and 2007-2016 (2-dose vaccination period).

RESULTS

The annual incidences of herpes zoster increased throughout the period of 1991-2012 in all adult age categories, with a plateau in 2013-2016 that was most evident in the ≥65 age group. In 1991-1995, the herpes zoster incidences increased at annual rates of 4-6% in age categories 18-34, 35-44, 45-54, and 55-64 years. In the same age categories during 1996-2006 and 2007-2016, the herpes zoster incidences increased at annual rates of 1-5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the annual incidence of herpes zoster in adults has continued to increase, the rates of change decreased during both the 1- and 2-dose vaccination periods. The hypothesized increase in herpes zoster predicted from modelling of the exogenous boosting hypothesis was not observed.

What We Know Now: An Economic Evaluation of Chickenpox Vaccination and Dose Timing Using an Agent-Based Model

OBJECTIVES

The value of chickenpox vaccination is still debated in the literature and by jurisdictions worldwide. This uncertainty is reflected in the inconsistent uptake of the vaccine, where some countries offer routine childhood immunization programs, others have targeted programs, and in many the vaccine is only privately available. Even across the countries that have universal funding for the vaccine, there is a diversity of schedules and dosing intervals. Using an agent-based model of chickenpox and shingles, we conducted an economic evaluation of chickenpox vaccination in Alberta, Canada.

METHODS

We compared the cost-effectiveness of 2 common chickenpox vaccination schedules, specifically a long dosing interval (first dose: 12 months; second dose: 4-6 years) and a short dosing interval (first dose: 12 months; second dose: 18 months).

RESULTS

The economic evaluation demonstrated a shorter dosing interval may be marginally preferred, although it consistently led to higher costs from both the societal and healthcare perspectives. We found that chickenpox vaccination would be cost-saving and highly cost-effective from the societal and healthcare perspective, assuming there was no impact on shingles.

CONCLUSION

Chickenpox vaccine was cost-effective when not considering shingles and remained so even if there was a minor increase in shingles following vaccination. However, if chickenpox vaccination did lead to a substantial increase in shingles, then chickenpox vaccination was not cost-effective from the healthcare perspective.

Integrating Alternative Social Value Judgments Into Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccines: An Application to Varicella-Zoster Virus Vaccination

OBJECTIVES

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) are based on the value judgment that health outcomes (eg, quantified in quality-adjusted life-years; QALYs) are all equally valuable irrespective of their context. Whereas most published CEAs perform extensive sensitivity analysis on various parameters and assumptions, only rarely is the influence of the QALY-equivalence assumption on cost-effectiveness results investigated. We illustrate how the integration of alternative social value judgments in CEA can be a useful form of sensitivity analysis.

METHODS

Because varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccination affects 2 distinct diseases (varicella zoster and herpes zoster) and likely redistributes infections across different age groups, the program has an important equity dimension. We used a cost-effectiveness model and disentangled the share of direct protection and herd immunity within the total projected QALYs resulting from a 50-year childhood VZV program in the UK. We use the UK population's preferences for QALYs in the vaccine context to revalue QALYs accordingly.

RESULTS

Revaluing different types of QALYs for different age groups in line with public preferences leads to a 98% change in the projected net impact of the program. The QALYs gained among children through direct varicella protection become more important, whereas the QALYs lost indirectly through zoster in adults diminish in value. Weighting of vaccine-related side effects made a large difference.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that a sensitivity analysis in which alternative social value judgments about the value of health outcomes are integrated into CEA of vaccines is relatively straightforward and provides important additional information for decision makers to interpret cost-effectiveness results.

Risk of herpes zoster after exposure to varicella to explore the exogenous boosting hypothesis: self controlled case series study using UK electronic healthcare data

OBJECTIVE

To assess the magnitude and duration of any hypothesised protective effect of household exposure to a child with varicella on the relative incidence of herpes zoster in adults.

DESIGN

Self controlled case series.

SETTING

UK general practices contributing to Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PARTICIPANTS

9604 adults (≥18 years) with a diagnosis of herpes zoster (in primary care or hospital records) between 1997 and 2018, who during their observation period lived with a child (<18 years) with a diagnosis of varicella.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative incidence of herpes zoster in the 20 years after exposure to a child with varicella in the household compared with baseline time (all other time, excluding the 60 days before exposure).

RESULTS

6584 of the 9604 adults with herpes zoster (68.6%) were women. Median age of exposure to a child with varicella was 38.3 years (interquartile range 32.3-48.8 years) and median observation period was 14.7 (11.1-17.7) years. 4116 adults developed zoster in the baseline period, 433 in the 60 days before exposure and 5055 in the risk period. After adjustment for age, calendar time, and season, strong evidence suggested that in the two years after household exposure to a child with varicella, adults were 33% less likely to develop zoster (incidence ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.73) compared with baseline time. In the 10-20 years after exposure, adults were 27% less likely to develop herpes zoster (0.73, 0.62 to 0.87) compared with baseline time. A stronger boosting effect was observed among men than among women after exposure to varicella.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative incidence of zoster was lower in the periods after exposure to a household contact with varicella, with modest but long lasting protective effects observed. This study suggests that exogenous boosting provides some protection from the risk of herpes zoster, but not complete immunity, as assumed by previous cost effectiveness estimates of varicella immunisation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model

BACKGROUND

In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We ran the model including and excluding HZ-related costs and impact of exogenous boosting.

RESULTS

Five years post-introduction of UVV (1D), the projected varicella incidence rate decreases from 1,674 cases pre-vaccine to 80 cases/100,000 person-years. By 25 years, varicella incidence equilibrates at 39, 12, and 16 cases/100,000 person-years for 1D, 2D-short, and 2D-long strategies, respectively, using a highly effective vaccine. With or without including exogenous boosting impact and/or HZ-related costs and health benefits, the 1D strategy is least costly, but 2-dose strategies are cost-effective considering a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product. The model predicted a modest increase in HZ burden during the first 20-30 years, after which time HZ incidence equilibrates at a lower rate than pre-vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support adding a second varicella vaccine dose in Turkey, as doing so is highly cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions regarding the burden associated with varicella and HZ disease.

Do varicella vaccination programs change the epidemiology of herpes zoster? A comprehensive review, with focus on the United States

Introduction: Policy-makers in many countries have been wary of introducing varicella vaccination programs because of concerns that reduced exposures to varicella-zoster virus could increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. The U.S. introduced varicella vaccination in 1996 and has empiric evidence regarding this concern. Areas covered: This comprehensive review provides background emphasizing the epidemiology of varicella and of HZ in the U.S. before and after the introduction of their respective vaccines. The epidemiology is complex, and interpretation is complicated by methodologic challenges, by unexplained increases in age-specific HZ incidence that preceded varicella vaccination, and by introduction of vaccines for prevention of HZ. Nonetheless, observations from studies using different platforms and designs have yielded consistent findings, suggesting they are robust. Expert opinion: There has been no evidence that the U.S. varicella vaccination program increased HZ incidence in the general adult population over baseline trends. Furthermore, HZ incidence in children is declining. The U.S. experience can inform the development of new generations of models to predict HZ trends. More importantly, it provides reassurance for countries considering varicella vaccination that an effective program can reduce varicella morbidity and mortality while reducing the likelihood of HZ among children, and potentially, over time, across the entire population.

The changing epidemiology of herpes zoster over a decade in South Korea, 2006-2015

BACKGROUND

In South Korea, the population is rapidly aging and the prevalence of comorbidities has increased. We investigated longitudinal changes in the herpes zoster (HZ) considering demographic changes and comorbidities in the era of universal single-dose varicella vaccination.

METHODS

We used the population-based database of the National Health Insurance Service in South Korea, with approximately 50 million subscribers during 2006-2015. HZ cases were identified using ICD-10 codes and comorbid conditions were also collected. Incidence rates (IRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) per year were calculated adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and socioeconomic status, and the temporal trends were examined using segmented negative binomial regression analysis.

RESULTS

Over a decade, the adjusted HZ IR increased significantly from 4.23 to 9.22 per 1000 person-years (adjusted IRR 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.06). However, during 2012-2015, the increasing trends decelerated (adjusted IRR per year 1.01, 95% CI 0.98-1.04) and slope changes differed by age. There was a declining trend in children under 9 years, sustained increase in adults aged 30-39 years, and near-plateau in those aged 50-69 years. Nonetheless, the age distribution of HZ incidence did not change over a decade, with the peak in adults aged 60-79 years. HZ-associated hospitalization rates also increased, with a deceleration in the increasing trends during 2012-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

The HZ burden increased independently of demographic changes and prevalence of comorbidities. However, different trajectories by age group necessitate continuous HZ surveillance for better understanding of these changes, and to provide evidence for development of preventive strategies.

Trends in varicella and herpes zoster epidemiology before and after the implementation of universal one-dose varicella vaccination over one decade in South Korea, 2003-2015

Background: In South Korea, the one-dose varicella vaccine was included in the National Immunization Program for children aged 12-15 months in 2005, and the vaccine coverage reached >95%. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) was investigated, accounting for demographic changes over time.Methods: We calculated the crude and age-sex standardized incidence rates (IRs) and age-specific IRs of varicella and HZ from 2003 to 2015, using the National Health Information Database including approximately 50 million Koreans. The annual incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated using a negative binomial regression analysis, adjusting for age and sex.Results: The crude varicella IR steadily declined by 67%, from 5.70/1000 to 1.87/1000 person years (IRR per year: 0.91; 95% CI 0.89-0.93), but the adjusted IRs showed a significant decline only during 2010-2015 (adjusted IRR per year: 0.90; 95% CI 0.88-0.93). The greatest decline was found in children ≤4 years of age, whereas the IR increased until 2011 and then declined afterward in children aged 5-9 years, who represented the highest incidence age group in 2013-2015. The crude HZ IR increased from 2.67/1000 to 9.80/1000 person years (IRR per year: 1.12; 95% CI 1.10-1.15), and the adjusted IR also followed the same trend. A similar increasing trend was observed before and after universal vaccination.Conclusions: One-dose varicella vaccination was moderately effective in preventing varicella, but this strategy was insufficient to interrupt varicella transmission in children. Furthermore, the HZ incidence dramatically increased over this decade. The current vaccination strategy against varicella-zoster disease should be reconsidered.

Burden of varicella in Central and Eastern Europe: findings from a systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccination against varicella rapidly reduces disease incidence, resulting in reductions in both individual burden and societal costs. Despite these benefits, there is no standardization of varicella immunization policies in Europe, including countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

AREAS COVERED

This systematic literature review identified publications on the epidemiology of varicella, its associated health and economic burden, and vaccination strategies within the CEE region, defined as Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Twenty-six studies were identified from a search of PubMed, Embase®, and MEDLINE® biomedical literature databases, supplemented by gray literature and country-specific/global websites.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Limited information exists in published studies on the burden of varicella in CEE. The wide variability in incidence rates between countries is likely explained by a lack of consistency in reporting systems. Funded universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in CEE is currently available only in Latvia as a one-dose schedule, but Hungary together with Latvia are introducing a two-dose strategy in 2019. For countries that do not provide UVV, introduction of vaccination is predicted to provide substantial reductions in cases and rates of associated complications, with important economic benefits.

The impact of childhood varicella vaccination on the incidence of herpes zoster in the general population: modelling the effect of exogenous and endogenous varicella-zoster virus immunity boosting

Background

A controversy exists about the potential effect of childhood varicella vaccination on Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence. Mathematical models projected temporary HZ incidence increase after vaccine introduction that was not confirmed by real-world evidence. These models assume that absence of contacts with infected children would prevent exogenous boosting of Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) immunity and they do not include an endogenous VZV immunity-boosting mechanism following asymptomatic VZV reactivation. This study aims to explore the effect of various assumptions on exogenous and endogenous VZV immunity-boosting on HZ incidence in the general population after introduction of routine childhood varicella vaccination.

Methods

An age-structured dynamic transmission model was adapted and fitted to the seroprevalence of varicella in France in absence of vaccination using the empirical contact matrix. A two-dose childhood varicella vaccination schedule was introduced at 12 and 18 months. Vaccine efficacy was assumed at 65%/95% (dose 1/dose 2), and coverage at 90%/80% (dose 1/dose 2). Exogenous boosting intensity was based on assumptions regarding HZ-immunity duration, age-dependent boosting effect, and HZ reactivation rates fitted to observed HZ incidence. Endogenous boosting was the same as pre-vaccination exogenous boosting but constant over time, whilst exogenous boosting depended on the force of infection. Five scenarios were tested with different weightings of exogenous (Exo) - endogenous (Endo) boosting: 100%Exo–0%Endo, 75%Exo–25%Endo, 50%Exo–50%Endo, 25%Exo–75%Endo, 0%Exo–100%Endo.

Results

HZ incidence before varicella vaccination, all ages combined, was estimated at 3.96 per 1000 person-years; it decreased by 64% by year 80 post vaccine introduction, for all boosting assumptions. The 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting scenario, predicted an increase in HZ incidence for the first 21 years post vaccine introduction with a maximum increase of 3.7% (4.1/1000) at year 9. However, with 0%Exo-100%Endo boosting scenario an immediate HZ decline was projected. The maximum HZ incidence increases at 10, 3, and 2 years post vaccination were 1.8% (75%Exo-25%Endo), 0.8% (50%Exo-50%Endo) and 0.2% (25%Exo-75%Endo), respectively.

Conclusions

Assuming modest levels of endogenous boosting, the increase in HZ incidence following childhood varicella vaccination was smaller and lasted for a shorter period compared with 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting assumption. Endogenous boosting mechanism could partly explain the divergence between previous HZ-incidence projections and real-world evidence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3759-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Herpes zoster incidence in Germany - an indirect validation study for self-reported disease data from pretest studies of the population-based German National Cohort

BACKGROUND

Until now, herpes zoster (HZ)-related disease burden in Germany has been estimated based on health insurance data and clinical findings. However, the validity of self-reported HZ is unclear. This study investigated the validity of self-reported herpes zoster (HZ) and its complication postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) using data from the pretest studies of the German National Cohort (GNC) in comparison with estimates based on health insurance data.

METHODS

Data of 4751 participants aged between 20 and 69 years from two pretest studies of the GNC carried out in 2011 and 2012 were used. Based on self-reports of physician-diagnosed HZ and PHN, age- and sex-specific HZ incidence rates and PHN proportions were estimated. For comparison, estimates based on statutory health insurance data from the German population were considered.

RESULTS

Eleven percent (95%-CI, 10.4 to 12.3, n = 539) of the participants reported at least one HZ episode in their lifetime. Our estimated age-specific HZ incidence rates were lower than previous estimates based on statutory health insurance data. The PHN proportion in participants older than 50 years was 5.9% (1.9 to 13.9%), which was in line with estimates based on health insurance data.

CONCLUSION

As age- and sex-specific patterns were comparable with that in health insurance data, self-reported diagnosis of HZ seems to be a valid instrument for overall disease trends. Possible reasons for observed differences in incidence rates are recall bias in self-reported data or overestimation in health insurance data.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Chickenpox Vaccination and Risk of Herpes Zoster: A Quantitative View on the “Exogenous Boosting Hypothesis”

Background

The “exogenous boosting hypothesis” postulates that reexposure to circulating varicella zoster virus (VZV) over the life span inhibits reactivation of VZV. Consequently, if circulation of VZV is suppressed by introduction of chickenpox vaccination, incidences of herpes zoster may rise.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and metaanalysis on impact of chickenpox vaccination on herpes zoster incidence and time trend, focusing on population-level effects by analyzing interrupted time-series (ITS) studies. We searched Medline and Embase for ITS reporting incidences of chickenpox and herpes zoster before and after implementation of chickenpox vaccination. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were calculated. Change in trend and incidence from studies were pooled.

Results

Twelve studies were included, of which 6 were eligible for metaanalysis. Metaanalysis revealed a significant increase in chickenpox cases prior to implementation of chickenpox vaccination and a reversed trend thereafter, particularly in individuals aged 1–4 years. The increase in age-adjusted herpes zoster incidence before implementation of chickenpox vaccination did not change thereafter. However, separate analysis of age groups revealed a net increase of hospitalized herpes zoster cases in individuals aged 10–49 years after implementation of chickenpox vaccination. This very small effect (fewer than 2 additional cases per 100 000 persons) did not occur in other age groups.

Conclusions

To date, no conclusive evidence exists that chickenpox vaccination has a substantial population-level impact on herpes zoster in nonvaccinated age groups. While exogenous boosting may exist, the effect size generated by chickenpox vaccination might be rather small on the population level.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Epidemiology, treatment and prevention of herpes zoster: A comprehensive review

Herpes zoster is a major health burden that can affect individuals of any age. It is seen more commonly among individuals aged ≥50 years, those with immunocompromised status, and those on immunosuppressant drugs. It is caused by a reactivation of varicella zoster virus infection. Cell-mediated immunity plays a role in this reactivation. Fever, pain, and itch are common symptoms before the onset of rash. Post-herpetic neuralgia is the most common complication associated with herpes zoster. Risk factors and complications associated with herpes zoster depend on the age, immune status, and the time of initializing treatment. Routine vaccination for individuals over 60 years has shown considerable effect in terms of reducing the incidence of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia. Treatment with antiviral drugs and analgesics within 72 hours of rash onset has been shown to reduce severity and complications associated with herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia. This study mainly focuses on herpes zoster using articles and reviews from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, and a manual search from Google Scholar. We cover the incidence of herpes zoster, gender distribution, seasonal and regional distribution of herpes zoster, incidence of herpes zoster among immunocompromised individuals, incidence of post-herpetic neuralgia following a zoster infection, complications, management, and prevention of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia.

Altered CD4+ T cell immunity in nurses occupationally exposed to viral pathogens

Pathogen exposure, including but not limited to herpesviruses, moulds the shape of the immune system, both at a basal state and in response to immune challenge. However, little is known about the impact of high exposure to other viruses on baseline immune signatures and how the immune system copes with repetitive exposures to maintain a balanced functionality. Here we investigated baseline immune signatures, including detailed T cell phenotyping, antigen-specific CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cell responses and cytokine profile in paediatric (PED) nurses, who have high occupational exposure to viral pathogens including varicella zoster virus (VZV) and respiratory viruses, and in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) nurses, as a control group with infrequent occupational exposure. Our results show a lower CD4⁺ T cell response to two VZV proteins (IE62 and gE) and to tetanus toxoid (TT) in PED nurses who are cytomegalovirus (CMV)-seronegative, compared to CMV-seronegative NICU nurses, and that the decline might be more pronounced the more sustained the exposure. This decline might be due to an attrition of VZV- and TT-specific T cells as a result of the continuous pressure on the CD4⁺ T cell compartment. Moreover, our data suggest that the distinct T cell phenotypes known to be associated with CMV-seropositivity might be less prominent in PED nurses compared to NICU nurses, implying a plausible attenuating effect of occupational exposure on CMV-associated immunosenescence. Overall, this pilot study reveals an impact of occupational exposure to viral pathogens on CD4⁺ T cell immunity and supports further investigation in a larger cohort.

Trends in herpes zoster epidemiology in Germany based on primary care sentinel surveillance data, 2005-2016

Herpes zoster (HZ) is caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster-virus (VZV). Childhood varicella vaccination, as recommended in Germany in 2004, may reduce the risk of HZ in vaccinated children but also virus circulation and thus the booster possibility of latent infected persons. In this context we analyzed age-specific trends in HZ epidemiology in Germany using data on HZ-associated outpatient consultations in participating sentinel sites and HZ-associated cases in all hospitals since 2005. We analyzed two separate time periods that differed in sentinel management and data integrity. For the period 2005-2010, we found a decrease in HZ-associated outpatient consultations in 1- to 4-year-olds (IRR = 0.72, 95%CI 0.63-0.81, p<0.001). For the period 2013-2016, we observed a decrease in HZ-associated outpatient consultations in 10- to 14-year-olds (IRR = 0.85, 95%CI 0.78-0.93, p<0.01). Moreover, we detected an increase in the age groups 20 years and older except for the group 30-39 years. HZ-associated hospitalizations showed similar trends for the second time period (here 2012-2015). The decrease in HZ-associated outpatient consultations and hospitalizations in children started and continued over cohorts eligible for varicella vaccination and could be a result of their reduced HZ-risk. Whether the observed steady increasing HZ incidences for adults are associated with the varicella vaccination in children remains unclear and could not be investigated with our data.

Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling

BACKGROUND

Biological interactions between varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles), two diseases caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), continue to be debated including the potential effect on shingles cases following the introduction of universal childhood chickenpox vaccination programs. We investigated how chickenpox vaccination in Alberta impacts the incidence and age-distribution of shingles over 75 years post-vaccination, taking into consideration a variety of plausible theories of waning and boosting of immunity.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model representing VZV disease, transmission, vaccination states and coverage, waning and boosting of immunity in a stylized geographic area, utilizing a distance-based network. We derived parameters from literature, including modeling, epidemiological, and immunology studies. We calibrated our model to the age-specific incidence of shingles and chickenpox prior to vaccination to derive optimal combinations of duration of boosting (DoB) and waning of immunity. We conducted paired simulations with and without implementing chickenpox vaccination. We computed the count and cumulative incidence rate of shingles cases at 10, 25, 50, and 75 years intervals, following introduction of vaccination, and compared the difference between runs with vaccination and without vaccination using the Mann-Whitney U-test to determine statistical significance. We carried out sensitivity analyses by increasing and lowering vaccination coverage and removing biological effect of boosting.

RESULTS

Chickenpox vaccination led to a decrease in chickenpox cases. The cumulative incidence of chickenpox had dropped from 1,254 cases per 100,000 person-years pre chickenpox vaccination to 193 cases per 100,000 person-years 10 years after the vaccine implementation. We observed an increase in the all-ages shingles cumulative incidence at 10 and 25 years post chickenpox vaccination and mixed cumulative incidence change at 50 and 75 years post-vaccination. The magnitude of change was sensitive to DoB and ranged from an increase of 22-100 per 100,000 person-years at 10 years post-vaccination for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). At 75 years post-vaccination, cumulative incidence ranged from a decline of 70 to an increase of 71 per 100,000 person-years for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses had a minimal impact on our inferences except for removing the effect of boosting.

DISCUSSION

Our model demonstrates that over the longer time period, there will be a reduction in shingles incidence driven by the depletion of the source of shingles reactivation; however in the short to medium term some age cohorts may experience an increase in shingles incidence. Our model offers a platform to further explore the relationship between chickenpox and shingles, including analyzing the impact of different chickenpox vaccination schedules and cost-effectiveness studies.

Inequalities in zoster disease burden: a population-based cohort study to identify social determinants using linked data from the U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND

Zoster vaccination was introduced in England in 2013, where tackling health inequalities is a statutory requirement. However, specific population groups with higher zoster burden remain largely unidentified.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate health inequalities in zoster disease burden prior to zoster vaccine introduction in England.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study used anonymized U.K. primary care data linked to hospitalization and deprivation data. Individuals aged ≥ 65 years without prior zoster history (N = 862 470) were followed from 1 September 2003 to 31 August 2013. Poisson regression was used to obtain adjusted rate ratios (ARRs) for the association of sociodemographic factors (ethnicity, immigration status, individuals' area-level deprivation, care home residence, living arrangements) with first zoster episode. Possible mediation by comorbidities and immunosuppressive medications was also assessed.

RESULTS

There were 37 014 first zoster episodes, with an incidence of 8·79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 8·70-8·88] per 1000 person-years at risk. In multivariable analyses, factors associated with higher zoster rates included care home residence (10% higher vs. those not in care homes), being a woman (16% higher vs. men), nonimmigrants (~30% higher than immigrants) and white ethnicity (for example, twice the rate compared with those of black ethnicity). Zoster incidence decreased slightly with increasing deprivation (ARR most vs. least deprived 0·96 (95% CI 0·92-0·99) and among those living alone (ARR 0·96, 95% CI 0·94-0·98). Mediating variables made little difference to the ARR of social factors but were themselves associated with increased zoster burden (ARR varied from 1·11 to 3·84).

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of zoster was higher in specific sociodemographic groups. Further study is needed to ascertain whether these individuals are attending for zoster vaccination.

The changing epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster in Hong Kong before universal varicella vaccination in 2014

In Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination started in July 2014. Before this, children could receive varicella vaccine via the private market. We analysed the epidemiology of varicella and zoster before universal vaccination. We estimated varicella vaccination coverage through surveys in preschool children. We estimated the burden of varicella and zoster with varicella notifications from 1999/00 to 2013/14, Accident and Emergency Department (A&E) attendance and inpatient admissions to public hospitals from 2004/05 to 2013/14. We fitted a catalytic model to serological data on antibodies against varicella-zoster virus to estimate the force of infection. We found that varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased to about 50% before programme inception. In children younger than 5 years, the annual rate of varicella notifications, varicella admission and zoster A&E attendance generally declined. The annual notification, A&E attendance and hospitalisation rate of varicella and zoster generally increased for individuals between 10 and 59 years old. Varicella serology indicated an age shift during the study period towards a higher proportion of infections in slightly older individuals, but the change was most notable before vaccine licensure. In conclusion, we observed a shift in the burden of varicella to slightly older age groups with a corresponding increase in incidence but it cannot necessarily be attributed to private market vaccine coverage alone. Increasing varicella vaccination uptake in the private market might affect varicella transmission and epidemiology, but not to the level of interrupting transmission.

Modeling the impact of combined vaccination programs against varicella and herpes zoster in Norway

BACKGROUND

Adoption of varicella immunization in Europe is limited due to a predicted increase in the incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) resulting from a removal of exogenous boosting by varicella vaccination. Most available assessments of immunization strategies only considered universal varicella vaccination (alone or in combination with HZ by the live vaccine). The development of a new subunit recombinant zoster vaccine may provide new perspectives of HZ control.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model for VZV in Norway based on the progressive immunity formulation of exogenous boosting. We evaluated a complete range of alternative immunization options against varicella and HZ including both universal and targeted varicella vaccination, either alone or with zoster immunization, and zoster immunization alone. We considered all values of the boosting intensity consistent with the Norwegian HZ incidence and compared the performance of the currently available live vaccine vs. a new recombinant vaccine.

RESULTS

Universal varicella vaccination alone resulted in a marked increase in the incidence of HZ under all scenarios considered. Even under the most favorable hypotheses on the magnitude of the boosting intensity, this increase could be mitigated only by a parallel HZ immunization with a recombinant vaccine, assuming a long duration of protection. Targeted varicella immunization of adolescents resulted in a modest increase in the HZ incidence which could be counterbalanced by both the live and, especially, the recombinant vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Given current knowledge on HZ pathogenesis and exogenous boosting, targeted varicella vaccination of adolescents was the only strategy that was not predicted to impact the epidemiology of HZ, and therefore it may represent a suitable alternative to universal vaccination. These results are aimed to support vaccine policy decisions in Norway and other countries with a similar VZV epidemiology.

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years.

METHODS

We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population.

RESULTS

Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios.

CONCLUSION

Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Varicella and herpes zoster vaccine development: lessons learned

INTRODUCTION

Before vaccination, varicella zoster virus (VZV), which is endemic worldwide, led to almost universal infection. This neurotropic virus persists lifelong by establishing latency in sensory ganglia, where its reactivation is controlled by VZV-specific T-cell immunity. Lifetime risk of VZV reactivation (zoster) is around 30%. Vaccine development was galvanised by the economic and societal burden of VZV, including debilitating zoster complications that largely affect older individuals. Areas covered: We describe the story of development, licensing and implementation of live attenuated vaccines against varicella and zoster. We consider the complex backdrop of VZV virology, pathogenesis and immune responses in the absence of suitable animal models and examine the changing epidemiology of VZV disease. We review the vaccines' efficacy, safety, effectiveness and coverage using evidence from trials, observational studies from large routine health datasets and clinical post-marketing surveillance studies and outline newer developments in subunit and inactivated vaccines. Expert commentary: Safe and effective, varicella and zoster vaccines have already made major inroads into reducing the burden of VZV disease globally. As these live vaccines have the potential to reactivate and cause clinical disease, developing alternatives that do not establish latency is an attractive prospect but will require better understanding of latency mechanisms.

Post-herpetic neuralgia - a review of current management and future directions

Post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is common and treatment is often suboptimal with less than half of patients achieving adequate 50% pain relief. As an area of unmet clinical need and as an archetype of neuropathic pain, it deserves the attention of clinicians and researchers. Areas covered: This review summarises the epidemiology, pathophysiology, risk factors and clinical features of varicella infection. It describes the current and possible future management strategies for preventing varicella infection and reactivation and for treating PHN. Expert opinion: A highly successful Varicella Zoster (VZV) vaccine has not been universally adopted due to fears that it may increase Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence - and thus PHN - in older, unvaccinated generations. This is a controversial theory but advances in the efficacy of vaccines against HZ may allay these fears and encourage more widespread adoption of the VZV vaccine. Treatment of PHN, as for any neuropathic pain, must be multidisciplinary and multimodal. Advances in sensory phenotyping technology and genomics may allow more individualised treatment. Traditional research methodologies are ill-suited to assess the kind of complex interventions that are necessary to achieve better clinical outcomes in this challenging field.

Varicella-related Primary Health-care Visits, Hospitalizations and Mortality in Norway, 2008-2014

BACKGROUND

Norway does not currently implement universal varicella vaccination in childhood. We aimed to characterize health care burden of varicella in Norway in the prevaccine era.

METHODS

We linked individual patient data from different national registries to examine varicella vaccinations and varicella-coded primary care consultations, hospitalizations, outpatient hospital visits, deaths and viral infections of central nervous system in the whole population of Norway during 2008-2014. We estimated health care contact rates and described the epidemiology of medically attended varicella infection.

RESULTS

Each year approximately 14,600 varicella-related contacts occurred within primary health care and hospital sector in Norway. The annual contact rate was 221 cases per 100,000 population in primary health care and 7.3 cases per 100,000 in hospital care. Both in primary and hospital care, the highest incidences were observed among children 1 year of age: 2,654 and 78.1 cases per 100,000, respectively. The annual varicella mortality was estimated at 0.06 deaths per 100,000 and in-hospital case-fatality rate at 0.3%. Very few (0.2-0.5%) patients were vaccinated against varicella. Among hospitalized varicella patients, 22% had predisposing conditions, 9% had severe-to-very severe comorbidities and 5.5% were immunocompromised. Varicella-related complications were reported in 29.3% of hospitalized patients. Varicella zoster virus was the third most frequent virus found among 16% of patients with confirmed viral infections of central nervous system.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella causes a considerable health care burden in Norway, especially among children. To inform the policy decision on the use of varicella vaccination, a health economic assessment of vaccination and mathematical modeling of vaccination impact are needed.

A national register-based study of paediatric varicella hospitalizations in Denmark 2010–2016

Varicella, usually a mild disease of childhood, can also cause complications and hospitalization. Universal varicella immunization is implemented in several countries worldwide, but not in Denmark. Taking advantage of unique national registers, we aimed to estimate the incidence of paediatric varicella hospitalizations and assess determinants for hospitalization. For this purpose, we designed a nationwide, retrospective register study of paediatric varicella hospitalizations and applied a case–cohort design and logistic regression analysis comparing hospitalized varicella patients to a sample of the entire paediatric population in Denmark. Varicella patients were identified in The Danish National Patient Register and referents were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registration System. The incidence of paediatric varicella admissions was 11/100 000 children 0–18 years of age/year. Of admitted children 67·1% had complications and 30·0% had underlying disease. All categories of underlying disease significantly increased the odds of hospitalization as well as male gender and not having been born in Denmark. In conclusion, we found a considerable burden of paediatric varicella disease in Danish hospitals, of similar magnitude as in other European countries comparable to Denmark. With this study we have provided epidemiological data needed for considering implementation of varicella vaccine in Denmark.

Varicella vaccination - the global experience

INTRODUCTION

Varicella, although a frequently benign childhood disease, nevertheless represents a considerable health burden. WHO recommends including varicella vaccines in universal routine vaccination programs, and maintaining coverage >80%. Many countries have successfully introduced varicella vaccination and have benefited from lower disease burden, but many others have not adopted the vaccine. Reasons include cost commitment for a 'mild childhood disease' or concerns that vaccination will shift varicella to older age groups or increase herpes zoster incidence. Areas covered: This literature review summarizes the effectiveness and epidemiological impact of varicella immunization programs. Expert commentary: Varicella vaccines are immunogenic with acceptable safety profiles. One and two dose schedules are highly effective against varicella and large reductions in disease incidence, particularly moderate-severe disease, have been widely reported. There is currently no evidence to suggest that the introduction of varicella vaccination results in a shift of varicella disease burden to older age groups. Although epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of herpes zoster since the vaccines were launched, there are many other contributing factors, and indeed, this secular trend was evident before their introduction. In conclusion, varicella vaccination easily fits into existing immunization programs and significantly reduces the often underestimated burden of varicella.

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster

We use age-structured models for VZV transmission and reactivation to reconstruct the natural history of VZV in Norway based on available pre-vaccination serological data, contact matrices, and herpes zoster incidence data. Depending on the hypotheses on contact and transmission patterns, the basic reproduction number of varicella in Norway ranges between 3.7 and 5.0, implying a vaccine coverage between 73 and 80% to effectively interrupt transmission with a 100% vaccine efficacy against infection. The varicella force of infection peaks during early childhood (3–5 yrs) and shows a prolonged phase of higher risk during the childbearing period, though quantitative variations can occur depending on contact patterns. By expressing the magnitude of exogenous boosting as a proportion of the force of infection, it is shown that reactivation is well described by a progressive immunity mechanism sustained by a large, though possibly below 100%, degree of exogenous boosting, in agreement with findings from other Nordic countries, implying large reproduction numbers of boosting. Moreover, magnitudes of exogenous boosting below 40% are robustly disconfirmed by data. These results bring further insight on the magnitude of immunity boosting and its relationship with reactivation.

Multidisciplinary study of the secondary immune response in grandparents re-exposed to chickenpox

Re-exposure to chickenpox may boost varicella-zoster virus (VZV) immunity in the elderly. This secondary immune response is hypothesized to confer protection against herpes zoster. We longitudinally sampled 36 adults over the course of one year after re-exposure to chickenpox. The resulting 183 samples and those of 14 controls were assessed for VZV-specific T-cell immunity and antibody titres. The percentages of VZV-specific CD4+ IL-2-producing T-cells were increased in re-exposed grandparents compared to control participants up to 9 months after re-exposure. Using a longitudinal mixture modelling approach, we found that 25% and 17% of re-exposed grandparents showed a boosting of VZV-specific CD4+ IL-2-producing T-cells and VZV-specific antibodies, respectively. The antibody boosting occurred exclusively in cytomegalovirus (CMV) IgG-positive participants. CMV IgG-positive participants also had higher VZV IE62-specific CD4+ IFN-γ-producing T-cell percentages and VZV-specific antibody titres. The protective effect of re-exposure to chickenpox is likely limited, as boosting only occurred in 17–25% of the VZV re-exposed grandparents and for less than one year.

Looking back to move forward: a twenty-year audit of herpes zoster in Asia-Pacific

Background

Herpes zoster (HZ) is a prevalent viral disease that inflicts substantial morbidity and associated healthcare and socioeconomic burdens. Current treatments are not fully effective, especially among the most vulnerable patients. Although widely recommended, vaccination against HZ is not routine; barriers in Asia-Pacific include long-standing neglect of adult immunisation and sparse local data. To address knowledge gaps, raise awareness, and disseminate best practice, we reviewed recent data and guidelines on HZ from the Asia-Pacific region.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Scopus, and World Health Organization databases for articles about HZ published from 1994 to 2014 by authors from Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. We selected articles about epidemiology, burden, complications, comorbidities, management, prevention, and recommendations/guidelines. Internet searches retrieved additional HZ immunisation guidelines.

Results

From 4007 retrieved articles, we screened-out 1501 duplicates and excluded 1264 extraneous articles, leaving 1242 unique articles. We found guidelines on adult immunisation from Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand.

HZ epidemiology in Asia-Pacific is similar to elsewhere; incidence rises with age and peaks at around 70 years – lifetime risk is approximately one-third. Average incidence of 3–10/1000 person-years is rising at around 5% per year. The principal risk factors are immunosenescence and immunosuppression. HZ almost always causes pain, and post-herpetic neuralgia is its most common complication. Half or more of hospitalised HZ patients have post-herpetic neuralgia, secondary infections, or inflammatory sequelae that are occasionally fatal. These disease burdens severely diminish patients’ quality of life and incur heavy healthcare utilisation.

Conclusions

Several countries have abundant data on HZ, but others, especially in South-East Asia, very few. However, Asia-Pacific countries generally lack data on HZ vaccine safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness. Physicians treating HZ and its complications in Asia-Pacific face familiar challenges but, with a vast aged population, Asia bears a unique and growing burden of disease. Given the strong rationale for prevention, most adult immunisation guidelines include HZ vaccine, yet it remains underused. We urge all stakeholders to give higher priority to adult immunisation in general and HZ in particular.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2198-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Social Value Of Vaccination Programs: Beyond Cost-Effectiveness

In the current global environment of increased strain on health care budgets, all medical interventions have to compete for funding. Cost-effectiveness analysis has become a standard method to use in estimating how much value an intervention offers relative to its costs, and it has become an influential element in decision making. However, the application of cost-effectiveness analysis to vaccination programs fails to capture the full contribution such a program offers to the community. Recent literature has highlighted how cost-effectiveness analysis can neglect the broader economic impact of vaccines. In this article we also argue that socioethical contributions such as effects on health equity, sustaining the public good of herd immunity, and social integration of minority groups are neglected in cost-effectiveness analysis. Evaluations of vaccination programs require broad and multidimensional perspectives that can account for their social, ethical, and economic impact as well as their cost-effectiveness.

Prevention of Herpes Zoster and its complications: From clinical evidence to real life experience

Herpes zoster (HZ) is an acute viral illness characterized by a vesicular rash with unilateral distribution, which can also result in severe complications such as post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), ophthalmic zoster, stroke or other neurological complications. The estimate incidence in Europe ranges between 2.0 and 4.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, with a sharp increase in >50 year-old subjects. Currently, treatment options for HZ are only partially effective in limiting the acute phase, while the management of complications is complex and often unsatisfactory. The total burden of the disease and the high costs related to its diagnostic and therapeutic management led researchers to develop a new preventive approach through a live attenuated virus vaccine. The currently available vaccine, with a high antigen content, is safe, well tolerated and reduces the incidence of HZ, PHN and the burden of illness. Several countries have introduced this vaccination, albeit with different recommendations and methods of financing. Taking into account the barriers to this immunization registered in some areas (difficulty of vaccine distribution, lack of physician recommendations, the cost of vaccine for patients, etc.), this group of Italian experts advocate that a common strategy able to guarantee a good compliance with this vaccination should be implemented. The same group addresses some practical questions concerning the use of zoster vaccine.

Cost of shingles: population based burden of disease analysis of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia

Background

Around 30% of the population will experience herpes zoster (HZ), 10% of whom develop postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). Together, these illnesses produce a significant economic burden to the healthcare system.

Methods

Administrative healthcare data collected over the period of April 1^st 1997 to March 31^st 2014 were analyzed to determine the healthcare system burden of HZ using direct medical costs. Episodes of HZ were identified using international classification of disease (ICD) codes. Trends in age-adjusted (AA) HZ-rates were analyzed by piecewise-regression. Total annual and per-episode costs were determined for drug treatment, medical care, and hospitalizations within each year.

Results

The incidence of HZ increased by 49.5% from 1997/98 to 2013/14. Piecewise-regression of AA-rates revealed a steady AA-rate of 4.7 episodes/1000 person-years (PY) from 1997/98 to a breakpoint in 2008/09, after which rates began to increase reaching 5.7 episodes/1000 PY in 2013/14.

Drug costs rose significantly (p <0.03) from $89.77/episode (95% CI: $82.96, $96.59) to $127.34/episode (95% CI: $117.24, $137.44). Medical costs increased (p <0.0001) from $57.98/episode (95% CI; $55.26, $60.70) to $78.84/episode (95% CI; $74.08, $83.61). Hospitalization rates declined from 3.10% in 1997/98 to 1.36% in 2011/12, resulting in cost dropping from $397/episode (95% CI; $284, $511) to $195/episode (95% CI; $129, $260).

Total annual costs of HZ and PHN were $1,997,183 in 2011/12, 4.7% lower than the 1997/98 costs of $2,095,633.

Conclusion

A significant increase in annual number of HZ cases was observed, driven largely by demographic factors. A 21% increase in the AA-incidence reveals changes in HZ rates beyond those expected by population shifts.

The large increase in incidence of HZ, with rising per episode medical and prescription costs were offset by dramatic drops in hospitalization rates, the net effect of which has been to hold the total costs relatively constant. However, the decrease in hospitalization rates slowed over the last half of the study, settling at 1.3% in the last 4 study years. The likely future of HZ burden is one of rising costs, primarily driven by the demographic shifts of an increasing and aging population.