Performance of a limiting-antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay for cross-sectional estimation of HIV incidence in the United States

Control groups for HIV prevention efficacy trials: what does the future hold?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Ending the HIV epidemic will require the development of additional effective immune-mediated and nonimmune-mediated means of HIV prevention. Evaluating novel interventions requires large, controlled trials demonstrating efficacy. Recent advances in the field of HIV prevention necessitate new approaches to efficacy trial design.

RECENT FINDINGS

Three classes of efficacy trial designs are possible: standard of prevention-controlled trials, active-controlled trials, and active-controlled trials augmented with external control data. Recent experience with these approaches provides lessons on considerations around and success of the designs. Additional experience and development is needed for the augmented active-controlled trial design.

SUMMARY

Efficacy trials of new HIV prevention interventions are feasible but require careful consideration, given the complexity and dynamic state of the prevention field. While standard of prevention-controlled efficacy trials are reasonable approaches for HIV vaccine and monoclonal antibody efficacy trials, trials of new antiretroviral agents may require active-controlled designs.

Development of a multiassay algorithm (MAA) to identify recent HIV infection in newly diagnosed individuals in Indonesia

Ongoing HIV transmission is a public health priority in Indonesia. We developed a new multiassay algorithm (MAA) to identify recent HIV infection. The MAA is a sequential decision tree based on multiple biomarkers, starting with CD4+ T cells >200/μL, followed by plasma viral load (pVL) > 1,000 copies/ml, avidity index (AI) < 0 · 7, and pol ambiguity <0 · 47%. Plasma from 140 HIV-infected adults from 19 hospitals across Indonesia (January 2018 - June 2020) was studied, consisting of a training set (N = 60) of longstanding infection (>12-month) and a test set (N = 80) of newly diagnosed (≤1-month) antiretroviral (ARV) drug naive individuals. Ten of eighty (12 · 5%) newly diagnosed individuals were classified as recent infections. Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) against reverse transcriptase inhibitors were identified in two individuals: one infected with HIV subtype C (K219Q, V179T) and the other with CRF01_AE (V179D). Ongoing HIV transmission, including infections with DRMs, is substantial in Indonesia.

Evaluation of multi-assay algorithms for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation in settings with universal antiretroviral treatment

BACKGROUND

Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) are used to estimate population-level HIV incidence and identify individuals with recent infection. Many MAAs use low viral load (VL) as a biomarker for long-term infection. This could impact incidence estimates in settings with high rates of early HIV treatment initiation. We evaluated the performance of two MAAs that do not include VL.

METHODS

Samples were collected from 219 seroconverters (infected < 1 year) and 4376 non-seroconverters (infected > 1 year) in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial; 28.8% of seroconverter samples and 73.2% of non-seroconverter samples had VLs ≤ 400 copies/mL. Samples were tested with the Limiting Antigen Avidity assay (LAg) and JHU BioRad-Avidity assays. Antibody reactivity to two HIV peptides was measured using the MSD U-PLEX assay. Two MAAs were evaluated that do not include VL: a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay (LAg + BR) and a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and two peptide biomarkers (LAg + PepPair). Performance of these MAAs was compared to a widely used MAA that includes LAg and VL (LAg + VL).

RESULTS

The incidence estimate for LAg + VL (1.29%, 95% CI: 0.97-1.62) was close to the observed longitudinal incidence (1.34% 95% CI: 1.17-1.53). The incidence estimates for the other two MAAs were higher (LAg + BR: 2.56%, 95% CI 2.01-3.11; LAg + PepPair: 2.84%, 95% CI: 1.36-4.32). LAg + BR and LAg + PepPair also misclassified more individuals infected > 2 years as recently infected than LAg + VL (1.2% [42/3483 and 1.5% [51/3483], respectively, vs. 0.2% [6/3483]). LAg + BR classified more seroconverters as recently infected than LAg + VL or LAg + PepPair (80 vs. 58 and 50, respectively) and identified ~ 25% of virally suppressed seroconverters as recently infected.

CONCLUSIONS

The LAg + VL MAA produced a cross-sectional incidence estimate that was closer to the longitudinal estimate than two MAAs that did not include VL. The LAg + BR MAA classified the greatest number of individual seroconverters as recently infected but had a higher false recent rate.

A systematic review of limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay for detection of recent HIV-1 infection to expand supported applications

Introduction

The need for detection of new and recent HIV infections is essential for surveillance and assessing interventions in controlling the epidemic. HIV recency assays are one way of providing reliable incidence estimates by determining recent versus non-recent infection. The objective of this study was to review the current body of knowledge of the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay to expand supported applications through an assessment of what is known and the gaps.

Methods

A search for peer-reviewed literature in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science Core Collection was conducted using the search term “human immunodeficiency virus and avidity”. Non-peer reviewed published reports from the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Project were also included. These were limited to literature published in English between January 2010 and August 2021.

Results

This search resulted in 2080 publications and 14 reports, with 137 peer-reviewed studies and 14 non-peer reviewed reports that met the inclusion criteria, yielding a total of 151 studies for the final review. There were similar findings among studies that compared the performances of assay manufacturers and sample types. Studies that evaluated various assay algorithms and thresholds were heterogeneous, illustrating the need for context-specific test characteristics for classifying recent infections. Most studies estimated subtype-specific test characteristics for HIV subtypes A, B, C, and D. This was further illustrated when looking only at studies that compared HIV incidence estimates from recency assay algorithms and longitudinal cohorts.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that the current body of knowledge provides important information that contributes towards distinguishing recent and non-recent infection and incidence estimation. However, there are knowledge gaps with respect to factors that influence the test characteristics (e.g., HIV-1 subtype, population characteristics, assay algorithms and thresholds). Further studies are needed to estimate and establish context-specific test characteristics that consider these influencing factors to improve and expand the use of this assay for detection of recent HIV infection.

Evaluation of the HIV-1 Polymerase Gene Sequence Diversity for Prediction of Recent HIV-1 Infections Using Shannon Entropy Analysis

HIV-1 incidence is an important parameter for assessing the impact of HIV-1 interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate HIV-1 polymerase (pol) gene sequence diversity for the prediction of recent HIV-1 infections. Complete pol Sanger sequences obtained from 45 participants confirmed to have recent or chronic HIV-1 infection were used. Shannon entropy was calculated for amino acid (aa) sequences for the entire pol and for sliding windows consisting of 50 aa each. Entropy scores for the complete HIV-1 pol were significantly higher in chronic compared to recent HIV-1 infections (p < 0.0001) and the same pattern was observed for some sliding windows (p-values ranging from 0.011 to <0.001), leading to the identification of some aa mutations that could discriminate between recent and chronic infection. Different aa mutation groups were assessed for predicting recent infection and their performance ranged from 64.3% to 100% but had a high false recency rate (FRR), which was decreased to 19.4% when another amino acid mutation (M456) was included in the analysis. The pol-based molecular method identified in this study would not be ideal for use on its own due to high FRR; however, this method could be considered for complementing existing serological assays to further reduce FRR.

Characteristics of recent HIV infection among individuals newly diagnosed as HIV-positive in South Korea (2008-2015)

Most HIV-positive individuals diagnosed in Korea are infected through sexual contact, with the time of HIV infection therefore often being unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of diagnosed patients near the time of HIV seroconversion to establish useful HIV intervention strategies. Cross-sectional study. Newly diagnosed HIV cases based on the national HIV surveillance system in South Korea, 2008–2015. To distinguish recent from long-standing HIV infection among 5898 nationwide HIV-positive specimens, limiting antigen avidity assays (Sedia HIV-1 LAg-Avidity EIA, cut-off = 1.5) were performed. Data on CD4+ T cell count at HIV diagnosis and death from AIDS within one year after first HIV diagnosis were used to distinguish recent HIV infections. Acute HIV infection is characterized by detectable HIV RNA or HIV p24 antigen levels, along with a negative or indeterminate antibody western blot result, but with the subject subsequently testing positive after a predetermined period. We analyzed the characteristics of recent and acute HIV infections by sex, age, nationality, HIV testing site, region, and reason for HIV testing. Recent and acute HIV infections were described as the proportion of recent and acute HIV infections among newly-diagnosed cases in a given year. Recent and acute HIV infections over the 8-year study period were 20.5% (1210/5898) and 9.5% (562/5898), respectively. Both infections were generally higher in the following groups: males, younger age, Koreans, individuals who were tested due to disease, residents of smaller city or rural area, and individuals diagnosed in recent calendar years. Acute infections were significantly higher among individuals tested in hospitals and due to suspected HIV infection. The recent and acute HIV infection in younger age groups (< 30 years) has been increasing in a given year. There was an increase in the proportion of young individuals with recent HIV infection, and we identified risk groups more at risk of HIV infection recently in Korea. Therefore, our results could prove useful for the development and assessment of national HIV prevention strategies in Korea and provide valuable data for further HIV research.

Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

HIV assays designed to detect recent infection, also known as "recency assays," are often used to estimate HIV incidence in a specific country, region, or subpopulation, alone or as part of recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs). Recently, many countries and organizations have become interested in using recency assays within case surveillance systems and routine HIV testing services to measure other indicators beyond incidence, generally referred to as "non-incidence surveillance use cases."

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to identify published evidence that can be used to validate methodological approaches to recency-based incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases. The evidence identified through this review will be used in the forthcoming technical guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) on the use of HIV recency assays for identification of epidemic trends, whether for HIV incidence estimation or non-incidence indicators of recency.

METHODS

To identify the best methodological and field implementation practices for the use of recency assays to estimate HIV incidence and trends in recent infections for specific populations or geographic areas, we conducted a systematic review of the literature to (1) understand the use of recency testing for surveillance in programmatic and laboratory settings, (2) review methodologies for implementing recency testing for both incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases, and (3) assess the field performance characteristics of commercially available recency assays.

RESULTS

Among the 167 documents included in the final review, 91 (54.5%) focused on assay or algorithm performance or methodological descriptions, with high-quality evidence of accurate age- and sex-disaggregated HIV incidence estimation at national or regional levels in general population settings, but not at finer geographic levels for prevention prioritization. The remaining 76 (45.5%) described the field use of incidence assays including field-derived incidence (n=45), non-incidence (n=25), and both incidence and non-incidence use cases (n=6). The field use of incidence assays included integrating RITAs into routine surveillance and assisting with molecular genetic analyses, but evidence was generally weaker or only reported on what was done, without validation data or findings related to effectiveness of using non-incidence indicators calculated through the use of recency assays as a proxy for HIV incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV recency assays have been widely validated for estimating HIV incidence in age- and sex-specific populations at national and subnational regional levels; however, there is a lack of evidence validating the accuracy and effectiveness of using recency assays to identify epidemic trends in non-incidence surveillance use cases. More research is needed to validate the use of recency assays within HIV testing services, to ensure findings can be accurately interpreted to guide prioritization of public health programming.

Statistical considerations for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on recency test

Longitudinal cohorts to determine the incidence of HIV infection are logistically challenging, so researchers have sought alternative strategies. Recency test methods use biomarker profiles of HIV-infected subjects in a cross-sectional sample to infer whether they are "recently" infected and to estimate incidence in the population. Two main estimators have been used in practice: one that assumes a recency test is perfectly specific, and another that allows for false-recent results. To date, these commonly used estimators have not been rigorously studied with respect to their assumptions and statistical properties. In this article, we present a theoretical framework with which to understand these estimators and interrogate their assumptions, and perform a simulation study and data analysis to assess the performance of these estimators under realistic HIV epidemiological dynamics. We find that the snapshot estimator and the adjusted estimator perform well when their corresponding assumptions hold. When assumptions on constant incidence and recency test characteristics fail to hold, the adjusted estimator is more robust than the snapshot estimator. We conclude with recommendations for the use of these estimators in practice and a discussion of future methodological developments to improve HIV incidence estimation via recency test.

Evaluation of multi-assay algorithms for identifying individuals with recent HIV infection: HPTN 071 (PopART)

Background

Assays and multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) have been developed for population-level cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation. These algorithms use a combination of serologic and/or non-serologic biomarkers to assess the duration of infection. We evaluated the performance of four MAAs for individual-level recency assessments.

Methods

Samples were obtained from 220 seroconverters (infected <1 year) and 4,396 non-seroconverters (infected >1 year) enrolled in an HIV prevention trial (HPTN 071 [PopART]); 28.6% of the seroconverters and 73.4% of the non-seroconverters had HIV viral loads ≤400 copies/mL. Samples were tested with two laboratory-based assays (LAg-Avidity, JHU BioRad-Avidity) and a point-of-care assay (rapid LAg). The four MAAs included different combinations of these assays and HIV viral load. Seroconverters on antiretroviral treatment (ART) were identified using a qualitative multi-drug assay.

Results

The MAAs identified between 54 and 100 (25% to 46%) of the seroconverters as recently-infected. The false recent rate of the MAAs for infections >2 years duration ranged from 0.2%-1.3%. The MAAs classified different overlapping groups of individuals as recent vs. non-recent. Only 32 (15%) of the 220 seroconverters were classified as recent by all four MAAs. Viral suppression impacted the performance of the two LAg-based assays. LAg-Avidity assay values were also lower for seroconverters who were virally suppressed on ART compared to those with natural viral suppression.

Conclusions

The four MAAs evaluated varied in sensitivity and specificity for identifying persons infected <1 year as recently infected and classified different groups of seroconverters as recently infected. Sensitivity was low for all four MAAs. These performance issues should be considered if these methods are used for individual-level recency assessments.

Characterization of HIV Risk Behaviors and Clusters Using HIV-Transmission Cluster Engine Among a Cohort of Persons Living with HIV in Washington, DC

Molecular epidemiology (ME) is one tool used to end the HIV epidemic in the United States. We combined clinical and behavioral data with HIV sequence data to identify any overlap in clusters generated from different sequence datasets; to characterize HIV transmission clusters; and to identify correlates of clustering among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Washington, District of Columbia (DC). First, Sanger sequences from DC Cohort participants, a longitudinal HIV study, were combined with next-generation sequences (NGS) from participants in a ME substudy to identify clusters. Next, demographic and self-reported behavioral data from ME substudy participants were used to identify risks of secondary transmission. Finally, we combined NGS from ME substudy participants with Sanger sequences in the DC Molecular HIV Surveillance database to identify clusters. Cluster analyses used HIV-Transmission Cluster Engine to identify linked pairs of sequences (defined as distance ≤1.5%). Twenty-eight clusters of ≥3 sequences (size range: 3-12) representing 108 (3%) participants were identified. None of the five largest clusters (size range: 5-12) included newly diagnosed PLWH. Thirty-four percent of ME substudy participants (n = 213) reported condomless sex during their last sexual encounter and 14% reported a Syphilis diagnosis in the past year. Seven transmission clusters (size range: 2-19) were identified in the final analysis, each containing at least one ME substudy participant. Substudy participants in clusters from the third analysis were present in clusters from the first analysis. Combining HIV sequence, clinical and behavioral data provided insights into HIV transmission that may not be identified using traditional epidemiological methods alone. Specifically, the sexual risk behaviors and STI diagnoses reported in the substudy survey may not have been disclosed during Partner Services activities and the survey data complemented clinical data to fully characterize transmission clusters. These findings can be used to enhance local efforts to interrupt transmission and avert new infections.

Regression with interval-censored covariates: Application to cross-sectional incidence estimation

A method for generalized linear regression with interval-censored covariates is described, extending previous approaches. A scenario is considered in which an interval-censored covariate of interest is defined as a function of other variables. Instead of directly modeling the distribution of the interval-censored covariate of interest, the distributions of the variables which determine that covariate are modeled, and the distribution of the covariate of interest is inferred indirectly. This approach leads to an estimation procedure using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The performance of this approach is compared to two alternative approaches, one in which the censoring interval midpoints are used as estimates of the censored covariate values, and another in which the censored values are multiply imputed using uniform distributions over the censoring intervals. A simulation framework is constructed to assess these methods' accuracies across a range of scenarios. The proposed approach is found to have less bias than midpoint analysis and uniform imputation, at the cost of small increases in standard error.

Persistence of HIV transmission clusters among people who inject drugs

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the duration of HIV transmission clusters.

DESIGN

Fifty-four individuals newly infected at enrollment in the ALIVE cohort were included, all of whom had sequences at an intake visit (T1) and from a second (T2) and/or a third (T3) follow-up visit, median 2.9 and 5.4 years later, respectively.

METHODS

Sequences were generated using the 454 DNA sequencing platform for portions of HIV pol and env (HXB2 positions 2717-3230; 7941-8264). Genetic distances were calculated using tn93 and sequences were clustered over a range of thresholds (1--5%) using HIV-TRACE. Analyses were performed separately for individuals with pol sequences for T1 + T2 (n = 40, 'Set 1') and T1 + T3 (n = 25; 'Set 2'), and env sequences for T1 + T2 (n = 47, 'Set 1'), and T1 + T3 (n = 30; 'Set 2').

RESULTS

For pol, with one exception, a single cluster contained more than 75% of samples at all thresholds, and cluster composition was at least 90% concordant between time points/thresholds. For env, two major clusters (A and B) were observed at T1 and T2/T3, although cluster composition concordance between time points/thresholds was low (<60%) at lower thresholds for both sets 1 and 2. In addition, several individuals were included in clusters at T2/T3, although not at T1.

CONCLUSION

Caution should be used in applying a single threshold in population studies where seroconversion dates are unknown. However, the retention of some clusters even after 5 + years is evidence for the robustness of the clustering approach in general.

Impact of Early Antiretroviral Treatment Initiation on Performance of Cross-Sectional Incidence Assays

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can impact assays used for cross-sectional HIV incidence testing, causing inaccurate HIV incidence estimates. We evaluated the relationship between the timing of ART initiation and the performance of two serologic HIV incidence assays. We analyzed 302 samples from 55 individuals from the RV217 cohort (Early Capture HIV Cohort Study). Participants were grouped by ART start time: ART started <1 year after infection (N = 9); ART started 1-3 years after infection (N = 12); and never received ART (N = 34). Samples were tested using the Sedia LAg-Avidity and Johns Hopkins modified Bio-Rad-Avidity assays. Results were compared with those from the Johns Hopkins HIV Cohort in which participants initiated ART an average of 10 years after infection (N = 17). Participants on ART were virally suppressed at the time of sample collection. The increase in normalized optical density (ODn) values was an average of 2.15 U/year lower in participants who started ART <1 year after infection than in those who did not start ART. Participants who started ART 1-3 years after infection had a decline in ODn values 0.90 U/year faster compared with those who started ART an average of 10 years after infection. Timing of ART initiation did not significantly impact results obtained with the Bio-Rad-Avidity assay. ART initiation <1 year after HIV infection was associated with persistently low limiting antigen (Lag)-Avidity values; this could lead to overestimation of HIV incidence. LAg-Avidity values declined more rapidly the earlier ART was initiated. Bio-Rad-Avidity values were not impacted by the timing of ART initiation.

Performance of a Modified In-House HIV-1 Avidity Assay among a Cohort of Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Infected Individuals and the Effect of ART on the Maturation of HIV-1 Specific Antibodies

BACKGROUND

Viral kinetics impact humoral immune response to HIV; antibody avidity testing helps distinguish recent (<6 months) and long-term HIV infection. This study aims to determine the frequency of recent HIV-1 infection among clients attending ICTC (Integrated Counselling and Testing Centre) using a commercial EIA, to correlate it with a modified in-house avidity assay and to study the impact of ART on anti-HIV-1 antibody maturation.

METHODS

Commercial LAg Avidity EIA was used to detect antibody avidity among 117 treatment naïve HIV-1 infected individuals. A second-generation HIV ELISA was modified for in-house antibody avidity testing and cutoff was set based on Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Archived paired samples from 25 HIV-1 infected individuals before ART and after successful ART; samples from 7 individuals responding to ART and during virological failure were also tested by LAg Avidity EIA.

RESULTS

Six individuals (5.1%) were identified as recently infected by a combination of LAg avidity assay and HIV-1 viral load testing. The modified in-house avidity assay demonstrated sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 98.2%, respectively, at AI=0.69 by ROC analysis. Median ODn values of individuals when responding to ART were significantly lower than pre-ART [4.136 (IQR 3.437- 4.827) vs 4.455 (IQR 3.748-5.120), p=0.006] whereas ODn values were higher during virological failure [4.260 (IQR 3.665 - 4.515) vs 2.868 (IQR 2.247 - 3.921), p=0.16].

CONCLUSION

This modified in-house antibody avidity assay is an inexpensive method to detect recent HIV-1 infection. ART demonstrated significant effect on HIV-1 antibody avidity owing to changes in viral kinetics.

HIV drug resistance in a cohort of HIV-infected MSM in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To analyze HIV drug resistance among MSM recruited for participation in the HPTN 078 study, which evaluated methods for achieving and maintaining viral suppression in HIV-infected MSM.

METHODS

Individuals were recruited at four study sites in the United States (Atlanta, Georgia; Baltimore, Maryland; Birmingham, Alabama; and Boston, Massachusetts; 2016-2017). HIV genotyping was performed using samples collected at study screening or enrollment. HIV drug resistance was evaluated using the Stanford v8.7 algorithm. A multiassay algorithm was used to identify individuals with recent HIV infection. Clustering of HIV sequences was evaluated using phylogenetic methods.

RESULTS

High-level HIV drug resistance was detected in 44 (31%) of 142 individuals (Atlanta: 21%, Baltimore: 29%, Birmingham: 53%, Boston: 26%); 12% had multiclass resistance, 16% had resistance to tenofovir or emtricitabine, and 8% had resistance to integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs); 3% had intermediate-level resistance to second-generation INSTIs. In a multivariate model, self-report of ever having been on antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with resistance (P = 0.005). One of six recently infected individuals had drug resistance. Phylogenetic analysis identified five clusters of study sequences; two clusters had shared resistance mutations.

CONCLUSION

High prevalence of drug resistance was observed among MSM. Some had multiclass resistance, resistance to drugs used for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and INSTI resistance. These findings highlight the need for improved HIV care in this high-risk population, identification of alternative regimens for PrEP, and inclusion of integrase resistance testing when selecting ART regimens for MSM in the United States.

American Cohort to Study HIV Acquisition Among Transgender Women in High-Risk Areas (The LITE Study): Protocol for a Multisite Prospective Cohort Study in the Eastern and Southern United States

BACKGROUND

In the United States, transgender women (TW) are disproportionately burdened by HIV infection. Cohort studies are needed to evaluate factors driving HIV acquisition among TW over time. These will require implementation strategies that are acceptable to the TW community and feasible to implement.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the rate and correlates of HIV acquisition and other health outcomes among TW in eastern and southern United States.

METHODS

LITE is a multisite prospective cohort in 6 eastern and southern US cities, which will be followed across 24 months of technology-enhanced biobehavioral follow-up. Adult TW, regardless of HIV status, are recruited via convenience sampling (eg, peer referrals, social media, and dating apps). Participants are enrolled in a baseline study visit, complete a sociobehavioral survey, and test for HIV and sexually transmitted infections. Participants who are not living with HIV at baseline are offered enrollment into the cohort (N=1100); follow-up assessments occur quarterly.

RESULTS

Cohort assembly was informed by synchronous Web-based focus group discussions with TW (n=41) and by continuing engagement with community advisory board members from each site. Enrollment launched in March 2018. The study is underway in the Atlanta; Baltimore; Boston; Miami; New York City; and Washington, DC, metro areas. As of March 2019, 795 TW completed a baseline visit (mean age 35 years). The majority of the participants are racial/ethnic minorities, with 45% of the TW identifying as black and 28% of the TW identifying as Hispanic/Latinx. More than one-quarter (28%) of the TW are living with HIV infection (laboratory-confirmed). Online recruitment methods support engagement with TW, although peer referral and referral through trusted health facilities and organizations remain most effective.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is responsive to increasing research interest in technology-enhanced methods for cohort research, particularly for hard-to-reach populations. Importantly, the diversity of literacy, technology use, and overall socioeconomic situations in this sample of TW highlights the need to leverage technology to permit a flexible, adaptive methodology that enhances engagement of potential participants living in marginalized contexts while still ensuring rigorous and sound study design.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/14704.

Field Validation of Limiting-Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay to Estimate HIV-1 Incidence in Cross-Sectional Survey in Swaziland

Reliable and accurate laboratory assays to detect recent HIV-1 infection have potential as simple and practical methods of estimating HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional surveys. This study describes validation of the limiting-antigen (LAg) avidity enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in a cross-sectional national survey, conducted in Swaziland, comparing it to prospective follow-up incidence. As part of the Swaziland HIV-1 Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS), 18,172 individuals underwent counseling and HIV rapid testing in a household-based, population survey conducted from December 2010 to June 2011. Plasma samples from HIV-positive persons were classified as recent infections using an incidence testing algorithm with LAg-Avidity EIA (normalized optical density ≤1.5) followed by viral load (VL ≥1,000 copies/mL). All HIV-seronegative samples were tested for acute HIV-1 infection by nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) pooling. HIV-seronegative individuals who consented to follow-up were retested ∼6 months later to detect observed HIV-1 seroconversion. HIV-1 incidence estimates based on LAg+VL and NAAT were calculated using assay-specific parameters and were compared with prospective incidence estimate. A total of 5,803 (31.9%) of 18,172 survey participants tested HIV seropositive; of these 5,683 (97.9%) were further tested with LAg+VL algorithm. The weighted annualized incidence from the longitudinal cohort study was 2.4% (95% confidence interval 2.0-2.7). Based on cross-sectional testing of HIV positives with LAg+VL algorithm, overall weighted annualized HIV-1 incidence was 2.5% (2.0-3.0), whereas NAAT-based incidence was of 2.6%. In addition, LAg-based incidence in men (1.8%; 1.2-2.5) and women (3.2%; 2.4-3.9) were similar to estimates based on observed incidence (men = 1.7%, women = 3.1%). Changes in HIV-1 incidence with age in men and women further validate plausibility of the algorithm. These results demonstrate that the LAg EIA, in a serial algorithm with VL, is a cost-effective tool to estimate HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional surveys.

The benefit of immediate compared with deferred antiretroviral therapy on CD4+ cell count recovery in early HIV infection

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of immediate vs. deferred antiretroviral therapy (ART) on CD4 recovery among individuals early in HIV infection.

DESIGN

Using serologic markers of early infection together with self-reported dates of infection and HIV diagnosis, ART-naive participants who were randomized to immediate vs. deferred ART in the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment trial were classified into subgroups of duration of HIV infection at baseline. CD4 cell count recovery over follow-up according to duration of HIV infection was investigated.

METHODS

Three subgroups were defined: first, infected 6 months or less (n = 373); second, infected 6-24 months (n = 2634); and third, infected 24 months or longer (n = 1605). Follow-up CD4, CD8, and CD4 : CD8 ratio for the immediate and deferred ART groups were compared by subgroup using linear models. For the deferred ART group, decline to CD4 less than 350 cells/μl or AIDS according to infection duration was compared using time-to-event methods.

RESULTS

Follow-up CD4 cell count differences (immediate minus deferred) were greater for those recently infected (+231 cells/μl) compared with the two other subgroups (202 and 171 cells/μl; P < 0.001). CD4 : CD8 ratio treatment differences varied significantly (P < 0.001) according to duration of infection. In the deferred ART group, decline to CD4 less than 350 cells/μl or AIDS was greater among those recently infected (16.1 vs. 13.2 and 10.5 per 100 person years for those infected 6-24 and ≥24 months; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

In this randomized comparison of immediate vs. deferred ART, the CD4 cell count difference was greatest for those recently infected with HIV, emphasizing the importance of immediate ART initiation.

Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation in an evolving epidemic

The cross-sectional approach to HIV incidence estimation overcomes some of the challenges with longitudinal cohort studies and has been successfully applied in many settings around the world. However, the cross-sectional approach does rely on an initial training data set to develop and calibrate the statistical methods to be used in cross-sectional surveys. The problem addressed in this paper is that the initial training data set may, over time, not reflect the current target population of interest because of evolution of the epidemic. For example, the mismatch between the target population and the initial data set could occur because of increasing use of anti-retroviral therapy among HIV-infected persons throughout the world. We developed methods to adjust the initial training data set with the goal that the adjusted data sets better reflect the target population. These adjustment procedures could help avoid the time and expense of collecting a completely new training data set from the current target population. We report the results of a simulation study to evaluate the procedures. We applied the methods to a dataset of HIV subtype B infection. The adjustment procedures could be applicable in situations other than cross-sectional incidence estimation where complex statistical analyses are to be conducted using an initial data set but those results may not be directly transportable to a new target population of interest. The approach we have proposed could offer a practical and cost-effective way to apply cross-sectional incidence methods to new target populations as the epidemic evolves.

Identification and validation of a multi-assay algorithm for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation in populations with subtype C infection

Introduction

Cross‐sectional methods can be used to estimate HIV incidence for surveillance and prevention studies. We evaluated assays and multi‐assay algorithms (MAAs) for incidence estimation in subtype C settings.

Methods

We analysed samples from individuals with subtype C infection with known duration of infection (2442 samples from 278 adults; 0.1 to 9.9 years after seroconversion). MAAs included 1‐4 of the following assays: Limiting Antigen Avidity assay (LAg‐Avidity), BioRad‐Avidity assay, CD4 cell count and viral load (VL). We evaluated 23,400 MAAs with different assays and assay cutoffs. We identified the MAA with the largest mean window period, where the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the shadow was <1 year. This MAA was compared to the LAg‐Avidity and BioRad‐Avidity assays alone, a widely used LAg algorithm (LAg‐Avidity <1.5 OD‐n + VL >1000 copies/mL), and two MAAs previously optimized for subtype B settings. We compared these cross‐sectional incidence estimates to observed incidence in an independent longitudinal cohort.

Results

The optimal MAA was LAg‐Avidity <2.8 OD‐n  +  BioRad‐Avidity <95% + VL >400 copies/mL. This MAA had a mean window period of 248 days (95% CI: 218, 284), a shadow of 306 days (95% CI: 255, 359), and provided the most accurate and precise incidence estimate for the independent cohort. The widely used LAg algorithm had a shorter mean window period (142 days, 95% CI: 118, 167), a longer shadow (410 days, 95% CI; 318, 491), and a less accurate and precise incidence estimate for the independent cohort.

Conclusions

An optimal MAA was identified for cross‐sectional HIV incidence in subtype C settings. The performance of this MAA is superior to a testing algorithm currently used for global HIV surveillance.

Immune Correlates of Disease Progression in Linked HIV-1 Infection

Genetic and immunologic analyses of epidemiologically-linked HIV transmission enable insights into the impact of immune responses on clinical outcomes. Human vaccine trials and animal studies of HIV-1 infection have suggested immune correlates of protection; however, their role in natural infection in terms of protection from disease progression is mostly unknown. Four HIV-1⁺ Cameroonian individuals, three of them epidemiologically-linked in a polygamous heterosexual relationship and one incidence-matched case, were studied over 15 years for heterologous and cross-neutralizing antibody responses, antibody binding, IgA/IgG levels, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) against cells expressing wild-type or CD4-bound Env, viral evolution, Env epitopes, and host factors including HLA-I alleles. Despite viral infection with related strains, the members of the transmission cluster experienced contrasting clinical outcomes including cases of rapid progression and long-term non-progression in the absence of strongly protective HLA-I or CCR5Δ32 alleles. Slower progression and higher CD4/CD8 ratios were associated with enhanced IgG antibody binding to native Env and stronger V1V2 antibody binding responses in the presence of viruses with residue K169 in V2. ADCC against cells expressing Env in the CD4-bound conformation in combination with low Env-specific IgA/IgG ratios correlated with better clinical outcome. This data set highlights for the first time that V1V2-directed antibody responses and ADCC against cells expressing open, CD4-exposed Env, in the presence of low plasma IgA/IgG ratios, can correlate with clinical outcome in natural infection. These parameters are comparable to the major correlates of protection, identified post-hoc in the RV144 vaccine trial; thus, they may also modulate the rate of clinical progression once infected. The findings illustrate the potential of immune correlate analysis in natural infection to guide vaccine development.

Comprehensive Profiling of HIV Antibody Evolution

This study evaluates HIV antibody responses and their evolution during the course of HIV infection. A phage display system is used to characterize antibody binding to >3,300 HIV peptides in 57 adults with early- to late-stage infection. We find that the number of unique epitopes targeted ("antibody breadth") increases early in infection and then stabilizes or declines. A decline in antibody breadth 9 months to 2 years after infection is associated with subsequent antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation, and a faster decline in antibody breadth is associated with a shorter time to ART initiation. We identify 266 peptides with increasing antibody reactivity over time and 43 peptides with decreasing reactivity over time. These data are used to design a prototype four-peptide "serosignature" to predict duration of HIV infection. We also demonstrate that epitope engineering can be used to optimize peptide binding properties for applications such as cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation.

Validation of the Limiting Antigen Avidity Assay to Estimate Level and Trends in HIV Incidence in an A/D Epidemic in Rakai, Uganda

The limiting-antigen avidity (LAg-Avidity) assay with viral load (VL) >1,000 copies/mL is being used to estimate population-level HIV incidence in Africa. However, this has not been validated in East Africa where HIV-1 subtypes A and D circulate. Sera from persons seen in two surveys (2008-2009 and 2012-2013) limited to those who attended the previous round of the Rakai Community Cohort in Uganda were analyzed. The performance of the current LAg-Avidity protocol, with a mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) of 130 days and false recent rate (FRR) of 0%, was compared with subtype-specific MDRI and FRR, adjusted to subtype distributions. The observed incidence was 1.05/100 person years (py) [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-1.23] in 2008-2009 and 0.66/100 py (95% CI 0.52-0.83) in 2012-2013. In contrast, the per-protocol LAg-Avidity incidence estimates were 1.63/100 py (95% CI 0.97-2.30) in 2008-2009 and 2.55/100 py (95% CI 1.51-3.59) in 2012-2013 (a significant increase, p < .05.) However, using a subtype-specific MDRI and FRR, the subtype adjusted incidence was 0.88% (95% CI 0.44-1.33) in 2008-2009 and 0.67% (95% CI 0.00-1.68) in 2012-2013, approximating to the observed incidence trends. In this subtype A/D epidemic, the per protocol LAg-Avidity + VL assay overestimated HIV incidence and failed to detect declines in incidence. Adjustment for FRR, MDRI, and subtype distribution provided incidence estimates similar to empirically observed incidence level and trends. Thus, use of the LAg-Avidity assay in an A/D epidemic requires adjustment for subtype.

Development of a Multiplex Assay for Concurrent Diagnoses and Detection of HIV-1, HIV-2, and Recent HIV-1 Infection in a Single Test

Laboratory assays that can accurately distinguish recent (occurring within the past year) from long-standing (>1 year) HIV infection are crucial for understanding HIV transmission dynamics in a population. However, often these efforts are confounded by inaccurate HIV diagnosis and the presence of HIV-2 in the population being surveyed. This study describes development of a multiplex assay that can simultaneously perform HIV diagnosis, HIV serotyping, and detection of recent HIV-1 infection in a single well. HIV diagnosis and HIV-2 serotyping were accomplished by coupling beads with an HIV-1 p24-gp41 fusion protein and HIV-2 peptide from gp36 immunodominant region, respectively. HIV-1 recent infection detection was accomplished by coupling beads with limiting amounts of multi-subtype gp41 immunodominant protein, recombinant immunodominant region, group M (rIDR-M). Assay conditions, including concentration of coupled antigens, were systematically optimized using well-characterized specimens with known HIV-status (positive or negative), HIV-2 specimens, and recent or long-term HIV-1 classification based on LAg-Avidity enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in a stepwise manner. Beads were then combined in a multiplex assay to evaluate its performance using large panel of specimens (n = 1,500) that included HIV-1 positive (n = 570, recent = 78, long-term = 492), HIV-2 positive (n = 31), and seronegative individuals (n = 899). The diagnostic component of the assay performed with high sensitivity (99.8%) and specificity (99.7%), while the HIV-2 serotyping sensitivity and specificity were 96.7% and 100%, respectively. There was a high correlation (R = 0.84) between the LAg-Avidity EIA and the multiplex assay for recent infection detection. The assay showed high inter- and intra-assay reproducibility with %coefficient of variation of <10% in the dynamic range. The multiplex assay has the ability to diagnose HIV infection, perform serotyping, and detect and distinguish recent from long-term HIV infections, all in a single well. This novel assay has the potential to simplify HIV surveillance by reducing the multiple steps that are otherwise required.

Cross-sectional estimates revealed high HIV incidence in Botswana rural communities in the era of successful ART scale-up in 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Botswana is close to reaching the UNAIDS "90-90-90" HIV testing, antiretroviral treatment (ART), and viral suppression goals. We sought to determine HIV incidence in this setting with both high HIV prevalence and high ART coverage.

METHODS

We used a cross-sectional approach to assessing HIV incidence. A random, population-based sample of adults age 16-64 years was enrolled in 30 rural and peri-urban communities as part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP), from October 2013 -November 2015. Data and samples from the baseline household survey were used to estimate cross-sectional HIV incidence, following an algorithm that combined Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA), ART status (documented or by testing ARV drugs in plasma) and HIV-1 RNA load. The LAg-Avidity EIA cut-off normalized optical density (ODn) was set at 1.5. The HIV-1 RNA cut-off was set at 400 copies/mL. For estimation purposes, the Mean Duration of Recent Infection was 130 days and the False Recent Rate (FRR) was evaluated at values of either 0 or 0.39%.

RESULTS

Among 12,610 individuals participating in the baseline household survey, HIV status was available for 12,570 participants and 3,596 of them were HIV positive. LAg-Avidity EIA data was generated for 3,581 (99.6%) of HIV-positive participants. Of 326 participants with ODn ≤1.5, 278 individuals were receiving ART verified through documentation and were considered to represent longstanding HIV infections. Among the remaining 48 participants who reported no use of ART, 14 had an HIV-1 RNA load ≤400 copies/mL (including 3 participants with ARVs in plasma) and were excluded, as potential elite/viremic controllers or undisclosed ART. Thus, 34 LAg-Avidity-EIA-recent, ARV-naïve individuals with detectable HIV-1 RNA (>400 copies/mL) were classified as individuals with recent HIV infections. The annualized HIV incidence among 16-64 year old adults was estimated at 1.06% (95% CI 0.68-1.45%) with zero FRR, and at 0.64% (95% CI 0.24-1.04%) using a previously defined FRR of 0.39%. Within a subset of younger individuals 16-49 years old, the annualized HIV incidence was estimated at 1.29% (95% CI 0.82-1.77%) with zero FRR, and at 0.90% (95% CI 0.42-1.38%) with FRR set to 0.39%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a cross-sectional estimate of HIV incidence from 2013-2015, we found that at the time of near achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, ~1% of adults (age 16-64 years) in Botswana's rural and peri-urban communities became HIV infected annually.

Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Estimation with Missing Biomarkers

Considerable progress has been made in the development of approaches for HIV incidence estimation based on a cross-sectional survey for biomarkers of recent infection. Multiple biomarkers when used in combination can increase the precision of cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates. Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation are hierarchical stepwise algorithms for testing the biological samples with multiple biomarkers. The objective of this paper is to consider some of the statistical challenges for addressing the problem of missing biomarkers in such testing algorithms. We consider several methods for handling missing biomarkers for (1) estimating the mean window period, and (2) estimating HIV incidence from a cross sectional survey once the mean window period has been determined. We develop a conditional estimation approach for addressing the missing data challenges and compare that method with two naïve approaches. Using MAAs developed for HIV subtype B, we evaluate the methods by simulation. We show that the two naïve estimation methods lead to biased results in most of the missing data scenarios considered. The proposed conditional approach protects against bias in all of the scenarios.

Comparison of Self-report to Biomarkers of Recent HIV Infection: Findings from the START Trial

Identifying individuals with recent HIV infection is critical to research related to viral reservoirs, outbreak investigations and intervention applications. A multi-assay algorithm (MAA) for recency of infection was used in conjunction with self-reported date of infection and documented date of diagnosis to estimate the number of participants recently infected in the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial. We tested samples for three groups of participants from START using a MAA: (1) 167 individuals who reported being infected ≤ 6 months before randomization; (2) 771 individuals who did not know their date of infection but were diagnosed within 6 months before randomization; and (3) as controls for the MAA, 199 individuals diagnosed with HIV ≥ 2 years before randomization. Participants with low titer and avidity and a baseline viral load > 400 copies/mL were classified as recently infected. A significantly higher percentage of participants who self-reported being infected ≤ 6 months were classified as recently infected compared to participants diagnosed ≥ 2 years (65% [109/167] vs. 2.5% [5/199], p < 0.001). Among the 771 individuals who did not know their duration of infection at randomization, 206 (26.7%) were classified as recently infected. Among those diagnosed with HIV in the 6 months prior to enrollment, the 373 participants who reported recent infection (n = 167) or who had confirmed recent infection by the MAA (n = 206) differed significantly on a number of baseline characteristics from those who had an unknown date of infection and were not confirmed by the MAA (n = 565). Participants recently infected by self-report and/or MAA were younger, more likely to be Asian, less likely to be black, less likely to be heterosexual, more likely to be enrolled at sites in the U.S., Europe or Australia, and have higher HIV RNA levels. There was good agreement between self-report of recency of infection and the MAA. We estimate that 373 participants enrolled in START were infected within 6 months of randomization. Compared to those not recently infected, these participants were younger, had higher HIV RNA levels and were more likely to come from high income countries and from populations such as MSM with more regular HIV testing.

HIV pretreatment drug resistance trends in three geographic areas of Mexico

Background

Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) levels to NNRTI approaching 10% have recently been reported in Mexico. However, subnational differences may exist in PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics.

Objectives

We longitudinally assessed HIV PDR in three geographic areas of Mexico.

Patients and methods

HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive individuals were recruited from 2008 to 2016, from the Central Metropolitan Zone (CMZ), Cancun and Tijuana (1194, 773 and 668 respectively). PDR was estimated using the Stanford HIVdb tool from plasma HIV pol sequences.

Results

A higher proportion of females, lower education and lower employment rate were observed in Tijuana, while a higher proportion of MSM was observed in the CMZ (P < 0.0001, all cases). For 2012-16, PDR was 13.4%, 8.9% and 11.2% in the CMZ, Tijuana and Cancun respectively. NNRTI PDR was highest in the three regions (8.7%, 4.8% and 8.1% respectively, P < 0.05); nevertheless, NNRTI PDR in Tijuana was lower than in the CMZ (P = 0.01). For 2008-16, we observed increasing efavirenz resistance trends in all regions (P < 0.05, all cases), reaching 11.8%, 6.1% and 8.3% respectively in 2016. Increasing efavirenz resistance was mostly associated with increasing K103N frequency (P = 0.007 CMZ, P = 0.03 Tijuana, not significant for Cancun).

Conclusions

Our study suggests different NNRTI PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics in three geographical areas of Mexico. Even when increasing trends in efavirenz resistance were observed in the three areas, our observations support that, in a large country such as Mexico, subnational surveillance and locally tailored interventions to address drug resistance may be a reasonable option.

Assays for estimating HIV incidence: updated global market assessment and estimated economic value

Introduction

Accurate incidence estimates are needed to characterize the HIV epidemic and guide prevention efforts. HIV Incidence assays are cost‐effective laboratory assays that provide incidence estimates from cross‐sectional surveys. We conducted a global market assessment of HIV incidence assays under three market scenarios and estimated the economic value of improved incidence assays.

Methods

We interviewed 27 stakeholders, and reviewed journal articles, working group proceedings, and manufacturers’ sales figures. We determined HIV incidence assay use in 2014, and estimated use in 2015 to 2017 and in 5 to 10‐years under three market scenarios, as well as the cost of conducting national and key population surveys using an HIV incidence assay with improved performance.

Results

Global 2014 HIV incidence assay use was 308,900 tests, highest in Asia and mostly for case‐ and population‐based surveillance. Estimated 2015 to 2017 use was 94,475 annually, with declines due to China and the United States discontinuing incidence assay use for domestic surveillance. Annual projected 5 to 10 year use under scenario 1 – no change in technology – was 94,475. For scenario 2 – a moderately improved incidence assay – projected annual use was 286,031. Projected annual use for scenario 3 – game‐changing technologies with an HIV incidence assay part of (a) standard confirmatory testing, and (b) standard rapid testing, were 500,000 and 180 million, respectively. As HIV incidence assay precision increases, decreased sample sizes required for incidence estimation resulted in $5 to 23 million annual reductions in survey costs and easily offset the approximately $3 million required to develop a new assay.

Conclusions

Improved HIV incidence assays could substantially reduce HIV incidence estimation costs. Continued development of HIV incidence assays with improved performance is required to realize these cost benefits.

Decision tree for accurate infection timing in individuals newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection

Background

There is today no gold standard method to accurately define the time passed since infection at HIV diagnosis. Infection timing and incidence measurement is however essential to better monitor the dynamics of local epidemics and the effect of prevention initiatives.

Methods

Three methods for infection timing were evaluated using 237 serial samples from documented seroconversions and 566 cross sectional samples from newly diagnosed patients: identification of antibodies against the HIV p31 protein in INNO-LIA, SediaTM BED CEIA and SediaTM LAg-Avidity EIA. A multi-assay decision tree for infection timing was developed.

Results

Clear differences in recency window between BED CEIA, LAg-Avidity EIA and p31 antibody presence were observed with a switch from recent to long term infection a median of 169.5, 108.0 and 64.5 days after collection of the pre-seroconversion sample respectively. BED showed high reliability for identification of long term infections while LAg-Avidity is highly accurate for identification of recent infections. Using BED as initial assay to identify the long term infections and LAg-Avidity as a confirmatory assay for those classified as recent infection by BED, explores the strengths of both while reduces the workload. The short recency window of p31 antibodies allows to discriminate very early from early infections based on this marker. BED recent infection results not confirmed by LAg-Avidity are considered to reflect a period more distant from the infection time. False recency predictions in this group can be minimized by elimination of patients with a CD4 count of less than 100 cells/mm3 or without no p31 antibodies. For 566 cross sectional sample the outcome of the decision tree confirmed the infection timing based on the results of all 3 markers but reduced the overall cost from 13.2 USD to 5.2 USD per sample.

Conclusions

A step-wise multi assay decision tree allows accurate timing of the HIV infection at diagnosis at affordable effort and cost and can be an important new tool in studies analyzing the dynamics of local epidemics or the effects of prevention strategies.

Brief Report: Impact of Early Antiretroviral Therapy on the Performance of HIV Rapid Tests and HIV Incidence Assays

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can downregulate antibody responses to HIV infection. We evaluated the impact of early vs. delayed ART on the performance of HIV diagnostic and incidence assays.

METHODS

Samples were obtained from 207 participants in the HPTN 052 trial, who were stably suppressed on ART for ≥4 years [Malawi sites; pre-ART CD4 cell count 350-550 cells/mm (early ART arm, N = 180) or <250 cells/mm or an AIDS-defining illness (delayed ART arm, N = 27)]. Samples were tested with 2 HIV rapid tests and 2 HIV incidence assays; selected samples were also tested with two fourth-generation immunoassays and a Western blot (WB) assay. A pre-ART sample was analyzed if the follow-up sample had a false-negative or weakly-reactive rapid test result, or had an incidence assay result indicative of recent infection (false-recent result).

RESULTS

Ten (4.8%) samples had a nonreactive or weakly-reactive rapid test result (7/180 early ART arm, 3/27 delayed ART arm, P = 0.13); one sample had nonreactive fourth-generation assay results and 3 had indeterminate WBs. Forty (18.9%) samples had a false-recent incidence assay result; 16 (7.8%) had false-recent results with both incidence assays. Baseline samples had stronger rapid test and WB bands, higher fourth-generation assay signal-to-cutoff values, and fewer HIV incidence assay results indicative of recent infection.

CONCLUSIONS

False-negative/weakly-reactive HIV rapid tests and false-recent HIV incidence assay results were observed in virally-suppressed individuals, regardless of pre-ART CD4 cell count. Downregulation of the antibody response to HIV infection in the setting of ART may impact population-level surveys of HIV prevalence and incidence.

Short Communication: Comparison of Maxim and Sedia Limiting Antigen Assay Performance for Measuring HIV Incidence

Accurate methods for cross-sectional incidence estimation are needed for HIV prevention research. The Limiting Antigen Avidity (LAg-Avidity) assay has been marketed by two vendors, Maxim Biomedical and Sedia BioSciences Corporation. Performance differences between the two versions of the assay are unknown. We tested a total 1,410 treatment-naive samples with both versions of the assay. The samples came from 176 seroconverters from the Zimbabwe Hormonal Contraception and HIV Study. The correlation between the two versions of the assay was 0.93 for the optical density (OD) and 0.86 for the normalized OD. As the difference was more pronounced for the normalized OD, the difference in assays can be attributed to the calibrators. The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI), the average time individuals infected <2 years appear recently infected, was determined for both versions using an assay cutoff of 1.5 OD-n alone or in combination with a viral load cutoff of >1,000 copies/ml. The MDRI was 137 days for Sedia and 157 days for Maxim, with a difference of 20 days (95% CI 11-30). The MDRIs decreased to 102 and 120 days with the inclusion of a viral load cutoff of >1,000 copies/ml. These results imply that use of the Sedia LAg-Avidity will result in estimates of incidence ∼13% lower than those using the Maxim LAg-Avidity.

Performance characteristics of an antibody-based multiplex kit for determining recent HIV-1 infection

The availability of reliable laboratory methods for determining recent HIV infection is vital for accurate estimation of population-based incidence. The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and false recent rate (FRR) are critical parameters for HIV incidence assays, as they impact HIV incidence estimates and provide a measure of assay performance. The HIV-1 Multiplex assay is an in-house developed, magnetic bead-based assay that measures virus-specific antibody levels and avidity to multiple analytes. To ensure quality control and to facilitate transfer of the assay to external laboratories or testing facilities, the in-house assay has been adapted and produced in kit form. Here, we describe the performance characteristics of the multiplex kit and demonstrate the stability of the kit components over a one-year period. Two statistical methods were employed to estimate the MDRI of the individual analytes and five different algorithms, combining multiple analyte values. The MDRI estimates for the individual analytes and five algorithms were all between 200 and 300 days post-seroconversion, with no notable difference between the two statistical approaches. All five algorithms exhibited a 0% FRR with specimens from long-term, subtype B HIV-1-infected individuals. The assay parameters described in this study provide the necessary tools to implement the HIV-1 multiplex assay and improves the utility of the assay for field use.

Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS): a prospective national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Swaziland has the highest national HIV prevalence worldwide. The Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS) provides the first national HIV incidence estimate based on prospectively observed HIV seroconversions.

METHODS

A two-stage survey sampling design was used to select a nationally representative sample of men and women aged 18-49 years from 14 891 households in 575 enumeration areas in Swaziland, who underwent household-based counselling and rapid HIV testing during 2011. All individuals aged 18-49 years who resided or had slept in the household the night before and were willing to undergo home-based HIV testing, answer demographic and behavioural questions in English or siSwati, and provide written informed consent were eligible for the study. We performed rapid HIV testing and assessed sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics with use of a questionnaire at baseline and, for HIV-seronegative individuals, 6 months later. We calculated HIV incidence with Poisson regression modelling as events per person-years × 100, and we assessed covariables as predictors with Cox proportional hazards modelling. Survey weighting was applied and all models used survey sampling methods.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 10, 2010, and June 25, 2011, 11 897 HIV-seronegative adults were enrolled in SHIMS and 11 232 (94%) were re-tested. Of these, 145 HIV seroconversions were observed, resulting in a weighted HIV incidence of 2·4% (95% CI 2·1-2·8). Incidence was nearly twice as high in women (3·1%; 95% CI 2·6-3·7) as in men (1·7%; 1·3-2·1, p<0·0001). Among men, partner's HIV-positive status (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2·67, 1·06-6·82, p=0·040) or unknown serostatus (aHR 4·64, 2·32-9·27, p<0·0001) in the past 6 months predicted HIV seroconversion. Among women, significant predictors included not being married (aHR 2·90, 1·44-5·84, p=0·0030), having a spouse who lives elsewhere (aHR 2·66, 1·29-5·45, p=0·0078), and having a partner in the past 6 months with unknown HIV status (aHR 2·87, 1·44-5·84, p=0·0030).

INTERPRETATION

Swaziland has the highest national HIV incidence in the world. In high-prevalence countries, population-based incidence measures and programmes that further expand HIV testing and support disclosure of HIV status are needed.

FUNDING

President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Pairwise diversity and tMRCA as potential markers for HIV infection recency

Intrahost human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 diversity increases linearly over time. We assessed the extent to which mean pairwise distances and the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) inferred from intrahost HIV-1C env sequences were associated with the estimated time of HIV infection. Data from a primary HIV-1C infection study in Botswana were used for this analysis (N = 42). A total of 2540 HIV-1C env gp120 variable loop region 1 to conserved region 5 (V1C5) of the HIV-1 envelope gp120 viral sequences were generated by single genome amplification and sequencing, with an average of 61 viral sequences per participant and 11 sequences per time point per participant. Raw pairwise distances were calculated for each time point and participant using the ape package in R software. The tMRCA was estimated using phylogenetic inference implemented in Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees v1.8.2. Pairwise distances and tMRCA were significantly associated with the estimated time since HIV infection (both P < 0.001). Taking into account multiplicity of HIV infection strengthened these associations. HIV-1C env-based pairwise distances and tMRCA can be used as potential markers for HIV recency. However, the tMRCA estimates demonstrated no advantage over the pairwise distances estimates.

Viral and Host Characteristics of Recent and Established HIV-1 Infections in Kisumu based on a Multiassay Approach

Integrated approaches provide better understanding of HIV/AIDS epidemics. We optimised a multiassay algorithm (MAA) and assessed HIV incidence, correlates of recent infections, viral diversity, plus transmission clusters among participants screened for Kisumu Incidence Cohort Study (KICoS1) (2007–2009). We performed BED-CEIA, Limiting antigen (LAg) avidity, Biorad avidity, and viral load (VL) tests on HIV-positive samples. Genotypic analyses focused on HIV-1 pol gene. Correlates of testing recent by MAA were assessed using logistic regression model. Overall, 133 (12%, 95% CI: 10.2–14.1) participants were HIV-positive, of whom 11 tested recent by MAA (BED-CEIA OD-n < 0.8 + LAg avidity OD-n < 1.5 + VL > 1000 copies/mL), giving an incidence of 1.46% (95% CI: 0.58–2.35) per year. This MAA-based incidence was similar to longitudinal KICoS1 incidence. Correlates of testing recent included sexually transmitted infection (STI) treatment history (OR = 3.94, 95% CI: 1.03–15.07) and syphilis seropositivity (OR = 10.15, 95% CI: 1.51–68.22). Overall, HIV-1 subtype A (63%), D (15%), C (3%), G (1%) and recombinants (18%), two monophyletic dyads and intrinsic viral mutations (V81I, V81I/V, V108I/V and K101Q) were observed. Viral diversity mirrored known patterns in this region, while resistance mutations reflected likely non-exposure to antiretroviral drugs. Management of STIs may help address ongoing HIV transmission in this region.

Evaluation of the limiting antigen avidity EIA (LAg) in people who inject drugs in Greece

This analysis assessed the utility of the limiting antigen avidity assay (LAg). Samples of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Greece with documented duration of HIV-1 infection were tested by LAg. A LAg-normalized optical density (ODn) ⩽1·5 corresponds to a recency window period of 130 days. The proportion true recent (PTR) and proportion false recent (PFR) were estimated in 28 seroconverters and in 366 samples collected >6 months after HIV diagnosis, respectively. The association between LAg ODn and HIV RNA level was evaluated in 232 persons. The PTR was 85·7%. The PFR was 20·8% but fell to 5·9% in samples from treatment-naive individuals with long-standing infection (>1 year), and to 0 in samples with the circulating recombinant form CRF35 AD. A LAg-based algorithm with a PFR of 3·3% estimated a similar incidence trend to that calculated by analyses based on HIV-1 seroconversions. In recently infected persons indicated by LAg, the median log10 HIV RNA level was high (5·30, interquartile range 4·56-5·90). LAg can help identify highly infectious HIV(+) individuals as it accurately identifies recent infections and is correlated with the HIV RNA level. It can also produce reliable estimates of HIV-1 incidence.

Analysis of Viral Diversity in Relation to the Recency of HIV-1C Infection in Botswana

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional, biomarker methods to determine HIV infection recency present a promising and cost-effective alternative to the repeated testing of uninfected individuals. We evaluate a viral-based assay that uses a measure of pairwise distances (PwD) to identify HIV infection recency, and compare its performance with two serologic incidence assays, BED and LAg. In addition, we assess whether combination BED plus PwD or LAg plus PwD screening can improve predictive accuracy by reducing the likelihood of a false-recent result.

METHODS

The data comes from 854 time-points and 42 participants enrolled in a primary HIV-1C infection study in Botswana. Time points after treatment initiation or with evidence of multiplicity of infection were excluded from the final analysis. PwD was calculated from quasispecies generated using single genome amplification and sequencing. We evaluated the ability of PwD to correctly classify HIV infection recency within <130, <180 and <360 days post-seroconversion using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) methods. Following a secondary PwD screening, we quantified the reduction in the relative false-recency rate (rFRR) of the BED and LAg assays while maintaining a sensitivity of either 75, 80, 85 or 90%.

RESULTS

The final analytic sample consisted of 758 time-points from 40 participants. The PwD assay was more accurate in classifying infection recency for the 130 and 180-day cut-offs when compared with the recommended LAg and BED thresholds. A higher AUC statistic confirmed the superior predictive performance of the PwD assay for the three cut-offs. When used for combination screening, the PwD assay reduced the rFRR of the LAg assay by 52% and the BED assay by 57.8% while maintaining a 90% sensitivity for the 130 and 180-day cut-offs respectively.

CONCLUSION

PwD can accurately determine HIV infection recency. A secondary PwD screening reduces misclassification and increases the accuracy of serologic-based assays.

Performance of Bio-Rad and Limiting Antigen Avidity Assays in Detecting Recent HIV Infections Using the Quebec Primary HIV-1 Infection Cohort

Background

Accurate and practical biologic tools to estimate HIV incidence is crucial to better monitor the epidemic and evaluate the effectiveness of HIV prevention and treatment programs.

Methods

We evaluated two avidity assays to measure recent HIV infection: the Sedia HIV-1 LAg-Avidity EIA (Sedia Biosciences, Portland) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-modified Bio-Rad-Avidity assay (Bio-Rad Laboratories, Mississauga, ON). Longitudinal specimens (n = 473) obtained from 123 treatment-naive seroconverted individuals enrolled in the Primary HIV-1 Infection (PHI) cohort of Quebec were used to determine the average time an individual is considered to be recently infected (mean duration of recent infection; MDRI), for the two avidity assays alone and in combination using a nonparametric survival method analysis. A total of 420 specimens from individuals with established HIV infection (90 individuals from the PHI cohort of Quebec and 330 individuals from the Laboratoire de santé publique du Quebec (LSPQ) serobank) were also tested to investigate false recency rate (FRR).

Results

The CDC-modified Bio-Rad-Avidity gave an estimated MDRI of 234 days (95% CI 220–249) at the avidity index cutoff of 30% while the Sedia-LAg-Avidity assay gave an estimated MDRI of 120 days (95% CI 109–132) at the normalized optical density (ODn) cutoff of 1.5. The FRR among individuals with established HIV infection was 10.2% (7.5%-13.5%) with the CDC-modified Bio-Rad-Avidity assay as compared to 6.0% (3.9%-8.7%) with the Sedia-LAg-Avidity assay. When optimizing a multiassay algorithm (MAA) that includes sequentially the CDC-modified Bio-Rad-Avidity assay then the Sedia-LAg-Avidity assay EIA (avidity index/ODn: 30%/1.7), the MDRI was 136 days (95% CI 123–148) and the FRR, 3.3% (95% CI 1.8–5.6).

Conclusion

Multiassay algorithms that include the CDC-modified Bio-Rad-Avidity assay and the Sedia-LAg-Avidity assay performed better than each avidity assay alone. Such 2-assay algorithm that starts with the CDC-modified Bio-Rad-Avidity assay followed by the Sedia-LAg-Avidity assay allowed a better classification of HIV-1 infections.

Early HIV Infections Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Five Cities in the United States

We tested blood samples from men who have sex with men (MSM) to detect early HIV infection. Early HIV included both acute (infected past 30 days) and recent (estimated recency past 240 days). Acute infections were defined as screen immunoassay (IA) negative/NAAT-positive or IA-positive/Multispot-negative/NAAT-positive. Recent infections were defined as avidity index cutoff <30 % on an avidity-based IA and, (1) not reporting antiretroviral therapy use or, (2) HIV RNA >150 copies/mL. Of 937 samples, 26 % (244) were HIV-infected and of these 5 % (12) were early. Of early infections, 2 were acute and 10 recent; most (8/12) were among black MSM. Early infection was associated with last partner of black race [adjusted relative risk (ARR) = 4.6, confidence intervals (CI) 1.2-17.3], receptive anal sex at last sex (ARR = 4.3, CI 1.2-15.0), and daily Internet use to meet partners/friends (ARR = 3.3, CI 1.1-9.7). Expanding prevention and treatment for black MSM will be necessary for reducing incidence in the United States.

Sample size methods for estimating HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys

Understanding HIV incidence, the rate at which new infections occur in populations, is critical for tracking and surveillance of the epidemic. In this article, we derive methods for determining sample sizes for cross-sectional surveys to estimate incidence with sufficient precision. We further show how to specify sample sizes for two successive cross-sectional surveys to detect changes in incidence with adequate power. In these surveys biomarkers such as CD4 cell count, viral load, and recently developed serological assays are used to determine which individuals are in an early disease stage of infection. The total number of individuals in this stage, divided by the number of people who are uninfected, is used to approximate the incidence rate. Our methods account for uncertainty in the durations of time spent in the biomarker defined early disease stage. We find that failure to account for this uncertainty when designing surveys can lead to imprecise estimates of incidence and underpowered studies. We evaluated our sample size methods in simulations and found that they performed well in a variety of underlying epidemics. Code for implementing our methods in R is available with this article at the Biometrics website on Wiley Online Library.

Identifying Recent HIV Infections: From Serological Assays to Genomics

In this paper, we review serological and molecular based methods to identify HIV infection recency. The accurate identification of recent HIV infection continues to be an important research area and has implications for HIV prevention and treatment interventions. Longitudinal cohorts that follow HIV negative individuals over time are the current gold standard approach, but they are logistically challenging, time consuming and an expensive enterprise. Methods that utilize cross-sectional testing and biomarker information have become an affordable alternative to the longitudinal approach. These methods use well-characterized biological makers to differentiate between recent and established HIV infections. However, recent results have identified a number of limitations in serological based assays that are sensitive to the variability in immune responses modulated by HIV subtypes, viral load and antiretroviral therapy. Molecular methods that explore the dynamics between the timing of infection and viral evolution are now emerging as a promising approach. The combination of serological and molecular methods may provide a good solution to identify recent HIV infection in cross-sectional data. As part of this review, we present the advantages and limitations of serological and molecular based methods and their potential complementary role for the identification of HIV infection recency.

How can we better identify early HIV infections?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Detection of early HIV infections (EHIs), including acute HIV infection (AHI), is important for individual health, prevention of HIV transmission, and measurement of HIV incidence. We describe markers of EHI, diagnostic strategies for detecting these markers, and ways to incorporate these strategies into diagnostic and HIV incidence algorithms.

RECENT FINDINGS

For individual diagnosis in the USA and Europe, laboratory-based diagnostic algorithms increasingly incorporate fourth-generation HIV antigen tests, allowing for earlier detection. In some sub-Saharan African settings, symptom-based screening is being explored to identify subsets of persons at high risk for AHI. Point-of-care diagnostics designed for AHI detection are in the pipeline and, if validated, represent an opportunity for real-time AHI diagnosis. At the population level, multiassay algorithms are promising new strategies for estimating HIV incidence on the basis of several assays applied to cross-sectional samples. These algorithms can be developed to optimize performance, in addition to cost and logistical considerations.

SUMMARY

There are important recent advances in detection of EHIs at the individual and population levels. Applying optimal combinations of tests in diagnostic and HIV incidence algorithms is urgently needed to support the multiple goals derived from enhanced detection and discrimination of EHIs.

A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods

BACKGROUND

The interpretation of HIV prevalence trends is increasingly difficult as antiretroviral treatment programs expand. Reliable HIV incidence estimates are critical to monitoring transmission trends and guiding an effective national response to the epidemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used a range of methods to estimate HIV incidence in South Africa: (i) an incidence testing algorithm applying the Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA) in combination with antiretroviral drug and HIV viral load testing; (ii) a modelling technique based on the synthetic cohort principle; and (iii) two dynamic mathematical models, the EPP/Spectrum model package and the Thembisa model. Overall, the different incidence estimation methods were in broad agreement on HIV incidence estimates among persons aged 15-49 years in 2012. The assay-based method produced slightly higher estimates of incidence, 1.72% (95% CI 1.38 - 2.06), compared with the mathematical models, 1.47% (95% CI 1.23 - 1.72) in Thembisa and 1.52% (95% CI 1.43 - 1.62) in EPP/Spectrum, and slightly lower estimates of incidence compared to the synthetic cohort, 1.9% (95% CI 0.8 - 3.1) over the period from 2008 to 2012. Among youth aged 15-24 years, a declining trend in HIV incidence was estimated by all three mathematical estimation methods.

CONCLUSIONS

The multi-method comparison showed similar levels and trends in HIV incidence and validated the estimates provided by the assay-based incidence testing algorithm. Our results confirm that South Africa is the country with the largest number of new HIV infections in the world, with about 1 000 new infections occurring each day among adults aged 15-49 years in 2012.

Longitudinal trends of recent HIV-1 infections in Slovenia (1986-2012) determined using an incidence algorithm

Resolving dilemma whether the rise in the number of HIV diagnoses represents an actual increase in HIV transmissions or is a result of improved HIV surveillance is crucial before implementing national HIV prevention strategies. Annual proportions of recent infections (RI) among newly diagnosed persons infected with HIV-1 in Slovenia during 27 years (1986-2012) were determined using an algorithm consisting of routine baseline CD4 and HIV viral load measurements and the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 Incidence Test (BED test). The study included the highest coverage of persons diagnosed with HIV during the entire duration of an HIV epidemic in a given country/region (71%). Out of 416 patients, 170 (40.9%) had a baseline CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/mm(3) and/or HIV-1 viral load less than 400 copies/ml and were characterized as having a long-standing infection (LSI). The remaining 246 patients were additionally tested using the BED test. Overall, 23% (97/416) of the patients were labeled RI. The characteristics significantly associated with RI were as follows: younger age, acute retroviral syndrome, CDC class A and other than C, no AIDS defining illnesses, HIV test performed in the past, a higher viral load, and a higher CD4 cell count. An interesting trend in the proportion of RI was observed, with a peak in 2005 (47% of RI) and the lowest point in 2008 (12%) in parallel with a rise in the numbers of new HIV diagnoses. This study could help promote the idea of introducing periodic HIV incidence monitoring using a simple and affordable algorithm.

Longitudinal analysis of HIV-1-specific antibody responses

Laboratory assays for determining recent HIV-1 infection are of great public health importance for aiding in the estimation of HIV incidence. Concerns have been raised about the potential for misclassification with serology-based assays due to fluctuations in the antibody response, particularly following progression to AIDS. We characterized longitudinal antibody responses to HIV using a cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) sampled for up to 17 years, in which 57% of the 65 study subjects included in the current analyses progressed to AIDS during the study period. Envelope-specific total IgG antibody levels, avidity, and p24-specific IgG3 levels were evaluated using a multiplexed Bio-Plex assay. For the majority of the analytes, no significant difference in IgG reactivity was observed between AIDS and non-AIDS specimens. Although a slight decline in gp120 reactivity was noted with decreasing CD4(+) T cell count, the drop in assay values was relatively minimal and would likely not lead to an increase in the misclassification rate of the assay. A peak in HIV-1 p24 IgG3 levels was observed during early infection, as confirmed by testing 1,216 specimens from 342 recent seroconverters with the Bio-Plex assay. As expected, IgG3 reactivity declined with disease progression and decreasing CD4(+) T cell count in the MSM cohort; however, 37% of the study subjects exhibited relatively high IgG3 levels late in the course of infection.

Evaluation of dried blood spots with a multiplex assay for measuring recent HIV-1 infection

Laboratory-based HIV tests for recent infection (TRIs), which primarily measure a specific serological biomarker(s) that distinguishes recent from long-term HIV infection, have facilitated the estimation of population-based incidence. Dried blood spots (DBS) on filter paper are an attractive sample source for HIV surveillance, given the simplified and cost-effective methods of specimen collection, storage, and shipment. Here, we evaluated the use of DBS in conjunction with an in-house multiplex TRI, the HIV-1-specific Bio-Plex assay, which measures direct antibody binding and avidity to multiple HIV-1 analytes. The assay performance was comparable between matched plasma and DBS samples from HIV-1 infected individuals obtained from diverse sources. The coefficients of variation, comparing the median antibody reactivity for each analyte between plasma and DBS, ranged from 2.78% to 9.40% and the correlation coefficients between the two sample types ranged from 0.89 to 0.97, depending on the analyte. The correlation in antibody reactivity between laboratory and site-prepared DBS for each analyte ranged from 0.87 to 0.98 and from 0.90 to 0.97 between site-prepared DBS and plasma. The correlation in assay measures between plasma and DBS indicate that the sample types can be used interchangeably with the Bio-Plex format, without negatively impacting the misclassification rate of the assay.

A comparison of two measures of HIV diversity in multi-assay algorithms for HIV incidence estimation

BACKGROUND

Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) can be used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional surveys. We compared the performance of two MAAs that use HIV diversity as one of four biomarkers for analysis of HIV incidence.

METHODS

Both MAAs included two serologic assays (LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay), HIV viral load, and an HIV diversity assay. HIV diversity was quantified using either a high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay that does not require HIV sequencing (HRM score for a 239 base pair env region) or sequence ambiguity (the percentage of ambiguous bases in a 1,302 base pair pol region). Samples were classified as MAA positive (likely from individuals with recent HIV infection) if they met the criteria for all of the assays in the MAA. The following performance characteristics were assessed: (1) the proportion of samples classified as MAA positive as a function of duration of infection, (2) the mean window period, (3) the shadow (the time period before sample collection that is being assessed by the MAA), and (4) the accuracy of cross-sectional incidence estimates for three cohort studies.

RESULTS

The proportion of samples classified as MAA positive as a function of duration of infection was nearly identical for the two MAAs. The mean window period was 141 days for the HRM-based MAA and 131 days for the sequence ambiguity-based MAA. The shadows for both MAAs were <1 year. Both MAAs provided cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates that were very similar to longitudinal incidence estimates based on HIV seroconversion.

CONCLUSIONS

MAAs that include the LAg-Avidity assay, the BioRad-Avidity assay, HIV viral load, and HIV diversity can provide accurate HIV incidence estimates. Sequence ambiguity measures obtained using a commercially-available HIV genotyping system can be used as an alternative to HRM scores in MAAs for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation.

Incorrect identification of recent HIV infection in adults in the United States using a limiting-antigen avidity assay

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate factors associated with misclassification by the limiting-antigen avidity (LAg-avidity) assay among individuals with long-standing HIV infection.

DESIGN

Samples were obtained from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience cohort (1089 samples from 667 individuals, 595 samples collected 2-4 years and 494 samples collected 4-8 years after HIV seroconversion). Paired samples from both time points were available for 422 (63.3%) of the 667 individuals.

METHODS

Samples were considered to be misclassified if the LAg-avidity assay result was 1.5 or less normalized optical density (OD-n) units.

RESULTS

Overall, 4.8% (52/1089) of the samples were misclassified, including 1.8% [16/884, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-3.06%] of samples from individuals with viral loads above 400 copies/ml and 1.4% (10/705) of samples from individuals with viral loads above 400 copies/ml and CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/μl (95% CI 0.68-2.60%). Age, race, sex, and mode of HIV acquisition were not associated with misclassification. In an adjusted analysis, viral load below 400 copies/ml [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.72, 95% CI 1.61-8.57], CD4 cell count below 50 cells/μl (aOR 5.41, 95% CI 1.86-15.74), and low LAg-avidity result (≤1.5 OD-n) from the earlier time point (aOR 5.60, 95% CI 1.55-20.25) were significantly associated with misclassification.

CONCLUSIONS

The manufacturer of the LAg-avidity assay recommends excluding individuals from incidence surveys who are receiving antiretroviral therapy, are elite suppressors, or have AIDS (CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl). The results of this study indicate that those exclusions do not remove all sources of assay misclassification among individuals with long-standing HIV infection.