Prognostic Value of Non-Invasive Fibrosis and Steatosis Tools, Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient (HVPG) and Histology in Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

Monitoring disease progression in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease. Its prevalence is increasing with the epidemic of obesity and metabolic syndrome. MASLD progression into metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and advanced fibrosis may lead to decompensated cirrhosis and development of liver-related events, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Monitoring disease progression is critical in decreasing morbidity, mortality, need for transplant and economic burden. Assessing for treatment response once FDA-approved medications are available is still an unmet clinical need.

AIMS

To explore the most up-to-date literature on testing used for monitoring disease progression and treatment response METHODS: We searched PubMed from inception to 15 August 2023, using the following MeSH terms: 'MASLD', 'Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease', 'MASH', 'metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis', 'Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease', 'NAFLD', 'non-alcoholic steatohepatitis', 'NASH', 'Biomarkers', 'clinical trial'. Articles were also identified through searches of the authors' files. The final reference list was generated based on originality and relevance to this review's broad scope, considering only papers published in English.

RESULTS

We have cited 101 references in this review detailing methods to monitor MASLD disease progression and treatment response.

CONCLUSION

Various biomarkers can be used in different care settings to monitor disease progression. Further research is needed to validate noninvasive tests more effectively.

Diagnosis and Monitoring of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis: Current State and Future Directions

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common liver disease, with a worldwide prevalence of 25%. NAFLD is a spectrum that includes nonalcoholic fatty liver defined histologically by isolated hepatocytes steatosis without inflammation and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the inflammatory subtype of NAFLD and is associated with disease progression, development of cirrhosis, and increased rates of liver-specific and overall mortality. The differentiation between NAFLD and NASH as well as staging NASH are important yet challenging clinical problems. Liver biopsy is currently the standard for disease diagnosis and fibrosis staging. However, this procedure is invasive, costly, and cannot be used for longitudinal monitoring. Therefore, several noninvasive quantitative imaging biomarkers have been proposed that can estimate the severity of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis. Despite this, noninvasive diagnosis of NASH and accurate risk stratification remain unmet needs. In this work, the most relevant available imaging biomarkers are reviewed and their application in patients with NAFLD are discussed.

Plasma Heparin Cofactor II Activity Is Inversely Associated with Hepatic Fibrosis of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

AIMS

Thrombin exerts various pathophysiological functions by activating protease-activated receptors (PARs), and thrombin-induced activation of PARs promotes the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Since heparin cofactor II (HCII) specifically inactivates thrombin action, we hypothesized that plasma HCII activity correlates with the severity of NAFLD.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted. Plasma HCII activity and noninvasive clinical markers of hepatic fibrosis including fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) were determined in 305 Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The relationships between plasma HCII activity and the clinical markers were statistically evaluated.

RESULTS

Multiple regression analysis including confounding factors showed that plasma HCII activity independently contributed to decreases in FIB-4 index (p＜0.001), NFS (p＜0.001) and APRI (p=0.004). In addition, logistic regression analysis for the prevalence of advanced hepatic fibrosis defined by the cutoff points of the clinical scores showed that plasma HCII activity was the sole and common negative factor for prevalence of advanced hepatic fibrosis (FIB-4 index: p=0.002, NFS: p=0.026 and APRI: p=0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma HCII activity was inversely associated with clinical hepatic fibrosis indices including FIB-4 index, NFS and APRI and with the prevalence of advanced hepatic fibrosis in patients with T2DM. The results suggest that HCII can serve as a novel biomarker for assessment of hepatic fibrosis of NAFLD in patients with T2DM.

Noninvasive Assessment of Liver Fibrosis in NAFLD

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has emerged as a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide, afflicting approximately a billion individuals. NAFLD is a slowly progressive disease that may evolve in a subset of patients toward cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and end-stage liver disease. Liver fibrosis severity is the strongest predictor of clinical outcomes. The emergence of effective therapeutics on the horizon highlights the need to identify among patients with NAFLD, those with severe fibrosis or cirrhosis, who are the most at risk of developing complications and target them for therapy. Liver biopsy has been the reference standard for this purpose. However, it is not suitable for large-scale population evaluation, given its well-known limitations (invasiveness, rare but severe complications, and sampling variability). Thus, there have been major efforts to develop simple noninvasive tools that can be used in routine clinical settings and in drug development. Noninvasive approaches are based on the quantification of biomarkers in serum samples or on the measurement of liver stiffness, using either ultrasound- or magnetic resonance-based elastography techniques. This review provides a roadmap for future development and integration of noninvasive tools in clinical practice and in drug development in NAFLD. We discuss herein the principles for their development and validation, their use in clinical practice, including for diagnosis of NAFLD, risk stratification in primary care and hepatology settings, prediction of long-term liver-related and non-liver-related outcomes, monitoring of fibrosis progression and regression, and response to future treatment.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and incidence of microvascular complications of diabetes in patients with type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

Objective

To investigate the association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and liver enzymes with the incidence of microvascular complications (neuropathy, retinopathy, and nephropathy) in a cohort of Iranian patients with type 2 diabetes.

Methods

For a total population of 3123 patients with type 2 diabetes, a prospective study was designed for 1215 patients with NAFLD and 1908 gender and age-matched control patients without NAFLD. The two groups were followed for a median duration of 5 years for the incidence of microvascular complications. The association between having NAFLD, the level of liver enzymes, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) value, and the incidence risk of diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy, and nephropathy were assessed through logistic regression analysis.

Results

NAFLD was found to be associated with incidence of diabetic neuropathy and nephropathy (Odds ratio: 1.338 (95% confidence interval: 1.091-1.640) and 1.333 (1.007-1.764), respectively). Alkaline-phosphatase enzyme was found to be associated with higher risks of diabetic neuropathy and nephropathy ((Risk estimate: 1.002 (95% CI: 1.001-1.003) and 1.002 (1.001-1.004), respectively)). Moreover, gamma-glutamyl transferase was associated with a higher risk of diabetic nephropathy (1.006 (1.002-1.009). Aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase were inversely associated with the risk of diabetic retinopathy (0.989 (0.979-0.998) and 0.990 (0.983-0.996), respectively). Furthermore, ARPI_T (1), ARPI_T (2), and ARPI_T (3) were shown to be associated with NAFLD (1.440 (1.061-1.954), 1.589 (1.163-2.171), and 2.673 (1.925, 3.710), respectively). However, FIB-4 score was not significantly associated with risk of microvascular complications.

Conclusion

Despite the benign nature of NAFLD, patients with type 2 diabetes should be always assessed for NAFLD to ensure early diagnosis and entry into proper medical care. Regular screenings of microvascular complications of diabetes is also suggested for these patients.

The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis on adverse clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently co-exist. We assess the impact of having NAFLD on adverse clinical outcomes and all-cause mortality for people with CKD.

METHODS

A total of 18,073 UK Biobank participants identified to have CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m² or albuminuria > 3 mg/mmol) were prospectively followed up by electronic linkage to hospital and death records. Cox-regression estimated the hazard ratios (HR) associated with having NAFLD (elevated hepatic steatosis index or ICD-code) and NAFLD fibrosis (elevated fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score or NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS)) on cardiovascular events (CVE), progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

56.2% of individuals with CKD had NAFLD at baseline, and 3.0% and 7.7% had NAFLD fibrosis according to a FIB-4 > 2.67 and NFS ≥ 0.676, respectively. The median follow-up was 13 years. In univariate analysis, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVE (HR 1.49 [1.38-1.60]), all-cause mortality (HR 1.22 [1.14-1.31]) and ESRD (HR 1.26 [1.02-1.54]). Following multivariable adjustment, NAFLD remained an independent risk factor for CVE overall (HR 1.20 [1.11-1.30], p < 0.0001), but not ACM or ESRD. In univariate analysis, elevated NFS and FIB-4 scores were associated with increased risk of CVE (HR 2.42 [2.09-2.80] and 1.64 [1.30-2.08]) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.82 [2.48-3.21] and 1.82 [1.47-2.24]); the NFS score was also associated with ESRD (HR 5.15 [3.52-7.52]). Following full adjustment, the NFS remained associated with an increased incidence of CVE (HR 1.19 [1.01-1.40]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.31 [1.13-1.52]).

CONCLUSIONS

In people with CKD, NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CVE, and the NAFLD fibrosis score is associated with an elevated risk of CVE and worse survival.

Mortality Outcomes by Fibrosis Stage in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Fibrosis is a key determinant of clinical outcomes in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but time-dependent risk of mortality has not been reported in previous meta-analyses. We performed an updated time-to-event meta-analysis to provide robust estimates for all-cause and liver-related mortality in biopsy-confirmed NAFLD with comparisons between fibrosis stages.

METHODS

Medline and Embase databases were searched to include cohort studies reporting survival outcomes by fibrosis stage in biopsy-proven NAFLD. Survival estimates were pooled using reconstructed individual participant data. Conventional meta-analysis was conducted to pool adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) using DerSimonian and Laird random effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 14 articles involving 17,301 patients with NAFLD were included. All-cause mortality at 1, 5, and 10 years for stage 0 to 2 fibrosis was 0.1%, 3.3%, and 7.7% vs 0.3%, 20.6%, and 41.5% for stage 4 fibrosis. Compared with stage 0 fibrosis, all-cause mortality increased with fibrosis stage: stage 2; HR, 1.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.98), stage 3; HR, 1.96 (95% CI, 1.41-2.72), and stage 4; HR, 3.66 (95% CI, 2.65-5.05). Risk for liver-related mortality increased exponentially as fibrosis stage increased: stage 2; HR, 4.07 (95% CI, 1.44-11.5), stage 3; HR, 7.59 (95% CI, 2.80-20.5), and stage 4; HR, 15.1 (95% CI, 5.27-43.4). Stage 3 to 4 fibrosis had a higher all-cause (HR, 3.32) and liver-related mortality (HR, 10.40) compared with stage 0 to 2 fibrosis, whereas stage 4 fibrosis had higher all-cause (HR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.47-4.83) and liver-related mortality (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.22-5.42) vs stage 3 fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality increases substantially with fibrosis stage. These data have important implications for prognostication and trial design.

Prognostic Value of Simple Non-Invasive Tests for the Risk Stratification of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Individuals with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a relevant disease burden in cirrhotic patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of simple non-invasive tests (NITs) (AAR, APRI, BARD, FIB-4) for the stratification of HCC risk development in a cohort of 122 consecutive cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD. Over a median follow up of 5.9 (3.2–9.3) years, 13 (10.7%) developed HCC. Only FIB-4 was associated with HCC risk (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.03–1.58, p = 0.027). After evaluating different established FIB-4 cut-offs, the lowest cut-off of 1.45 allowed the ruling out of a greater number of patients with a minimal risk of HCC than the 1.3 cut-off (23 vs. 18 patients). Conversely, the cumulative incidence of HCC using the highest cut-off of 3.25 (rule in) was distinctly higher than the 2.67 cut-off (19.4% vs. 13.3%). After multivariate Cox regression analysis, these cut-offs were independently associated with HCC after adjusting for sex, BMI and T2DM (HR = 6.40, 95% CI 1.71–24.00, p = 0.006). In conclusion, FIB-4 values of <1.3 and >3.25 could allow for the optimal stratification of long-term HCC risk in cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD.

Clinical Outcomes in Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients: A Multicenter Registry-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There are no detailed reports of clinical outcomes in Asian patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who undergo liver biopsy. We aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of a large cohort of Asian patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and evaluate the specific effects of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and fibrosis stage.

METHODS

This multicenter registry-based retrospective cohort study, called the CLIONE (Clinical Outcome Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease) in Asia, included 1398 patients.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 4.6 years (range, 0.3-21.6 years), representing a total of 8874 person-years of follow-up. During that time, 47 patients died, and 1 patient underwent orthotopic liver transplantation. The leading cause of death was nonhepatic cancer (n = 10). The leading causes of liver-related death were liver failure (n = 9), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (n = 8), and cholangiocellular carcinoma (n = 4). During follow-up, 37 patients developed HCC, 31 developed cardiovascular disease, and 68 developed nonhepatic cancer (mainly breast, stomach, and colon/rectum). Among our cohort of patients with NAFLD, liver-specific mortality was 2.34/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-3.58), overall mortality was 5.34/1000 person-years (95% CI, 4.02-7.08), and HCC incidence was 4.17/1000 person-years (95% CI, 3.02-5.75). Liver fibrosis was independently associated with liver-related events but not overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver-related mortality was the leading cause of mortality in Asian patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD. Although fibrosis stage was independently associated with liver-related events, it was not associated with overall mortality after adjusting for confounders, such as histologic features of steatohepatitis.

FIB-4 Improves LSM-Based Prediction of Complications in Overweight or Obese Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) is able to stratify the risk of decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).¹ Recently, we demonstrated that this holds true also in overweight or obese patients with cACLD due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) studied by the XL probe. An LSM cutoff of ≥21 kPa remained associated with a high risk of complications in this population.².

Ultrasound Pressure Estimation for Diagnosing Portal Hypertension in Patients Undergoing Dialysis for Chronic Kidney Disease

OBJECTIVES

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is considered the standard in quantifying portal hypertension, but can be unreliable in dialysis patients. A noninvasive ultrasound technique, subharmonic-aided pressure estimation (SHAPE), may be a valuable surrogate of these pressure estimates. This study compared SHAPE and HVPG with pathology findings for fibrosis in dialysis patients.

METHODS

This was a subgroup study from an IRB-approved trial that included 20 patients on dialysis undergoing SHAPE examinations of portal and hepatic veins using a modified Logiq 9 scanner (GE, Waukesha, WI), during infusion of Sonazoid (GE Healthcare, Oslo, Norway). SHAPE was compared to HVPG and pathology findings using the Ludwig-Batts scoring system for fibrosis. Logistic regression, ROC analysis, and t-tests were used to compare HVPG and SHAPE with pathological findings of fibrosis.

RESULTS

Of 20 cases, 5 had HVPG values corresponding to subclinical and clinical portal hypertension (≥6 and ≥10 mmHg, respectively) while 15 had normal HVPG values (≤5 mmHg). SHAPE and HVPG correlated moderately (r = 0.45; P = .047). SHAPE showed a trend toward correlating with fibrosis (r = 0.42; P = .068), while HVPG did not (r = 0.18; P = .45). SHAPE could differentiate between mild (stage 0-1) and moderate to severe (stage 2-4) fibrosis (-10.4 ± 4.9 dB versus -5.4 ± 3.2 dB; P = .035), HVPG could not (3.0 ± 0.6 mmHg versus 4.8 ± 0.7 mmHg; P = .30). ROC curves showed a diagnostic accuracy for SHAPE of 80%, while HVPG reached 76%.

CONCLUSION

Liver fibrosis staging in dialysis patients evaluated for portal hypertension appears to be more accurately predicted by SHAPE than by HVPG; albeit in a small sample size.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adults 2021: A clinical practice guideline of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), the Italian Society of Diabetology (SID) and the Italian Society of Obesity (SIO)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common and emerging liver disease in adults, paralleling the epidemic of obesity and diabetes and leading to worrisome events (hepatocellular carcinoma and end-stage liver disease). In the past years, mounting evidence added insights about epidemiology, natural history, diagnosis and lifestyle-based or drug treatment of NAFLD. In this rapidly evolving scenario, members of the Associazione Italiana per lo Studio del Fegato, the Società Italiana di Diabetologia and the Società Italiana dell'Obesità reviewed current knowledge on NAFLD. The quality of the published evidence is graded, and practical recommendations are made following the rules and the methodology suggested in Italy by the Centro Nazionale per l'Eccellenza delle cure and Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Whenever possible, recommendations are placed within the context the Italian Healthcare system, with reference to specific experience and local diagnostic and management resources.Level of evidence Level of evidence of recommendations for each PICO question were reported according to available evidence.

The prognostic value of HVPG-response to non-selective beta-blockers in patients with NASH cirrhosis and varices

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has become a leading cause of cirrhosis. The prognostic value of (HVPG)-guided NSBB prophylaxis remains to be investigated in the setting of NASH cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with NASH cirrhosis and varices undergoing HVPG-guided NSBB therapy were included. HVPG-response to NSBBs was evaluated within a median 52 (IQR:28-71) days after baseline measurement. HVPG-Response was defined as a decrease of ≥10% from baseline or below <12 mmHg. The composite endpoint was defined as variceal bleeding, decompensation, and liver-related death.

RESULTS

Thirtyeight patients were included: Child-A/B:33(87%), Child-C:5(13%) median HVPG:19.7 ± 4.7 mmHg. 21(55.3%) patients achieved HVPG-response to NSBB. Presence of diabetes(aOR:0.16, p = 0.038) and arterial blood pressure (aOR:1.07, p = 0.044) were independently associated with NSBB-response. While NSBB-HVPG-responders showed fewer decompensations within 90 days (n = 1(5%) vs. n = 3(29%), p = 0.172), only Child-Pugh stage B/C (p = 0.001), MELD ≥ 15(p = 0.021) and HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg(p = 0.011) predicted the composite endpoint at 90 days. Similarly, after 2years of follow-up, only Child-Pugh stage (B:p = 0.001, C:p < 0.001), MELD ≥ 15 (p = 0.021), HVPG≥20 mmHg (p = 0.011) predicted the composite endpoint. Importantly, all bleeding events occurred in HVPG-NSBB non-responders.

CONCLUSION

HVPG-response to NSBB was achieved in 55.3% of NASH patients with varices and this seemed to protect from variceal bleeding. However, only baseline HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg, Child-Pugh stage B/C and MELD ≥ 15 were predictors of decompensation/death in patients with NASH cirrhosis and varices.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adults 2021: A clinical practice guideline of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), the Italian Society of Diabetology (SID) and the Italian Society of Obesity (SIO)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common and emerging liver disease in adults, paralleling the epidemic of obesity and diabetes, and leading to worrisome events (hepatocellular carcinoma and end-stage liver disease). In the last years, mounting evidence added insights about epidemiology, natural history, diagnosis and lifestyle-based or drug treatment of NAFLD. In this rapidly evolving scenario, members of the Associazione Italiana per lo Studio del Fegato (AISF), the Società Italiana di Diabetologia (SID) and the Società Italiana dell'Obesità (SIO) reviewed current knowledge on NAFLD. The quality of the published evidence is graded, and practical recommendations are made following the rules and the methodology suggested in Italy by the Centro Nazionale per l'Eccellenza delle cure (CNEC) and Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS). Whenever possible, recommendations are placed within the context the Italian Healthcare system, with reference to specific experience and local diagnostic and management resources. Level of evidence: Level of evidence of recommendations for each PICO question were reported according to available evidence.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adults 2021: A clinical practice guideline of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), the Italian Society of Diabetology (SID) and the Italian Society of Obesity (SIO)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common and emerging liver disease in adults, paralleling the epidemic of obesity and diabetes, and leading to worrisome events (hepatocellular carcinoma and end-stage liver disease). In the last years, mounting evidence added insights about epidemiology, natural history, diagnosis and lifestyle-based or drug treatment of NAFLD. In this rapidly evolving scenario, members of the Associazione Italiana per lo Studio del Fegato (AISF), the Società Italiana di Diabetologia (SID) and the Società Italiana dell'Obesità (SIO) reviewed current knowledge on NAFLD. The quality of the published evidence is graded, and practical recommendations are made following the rules and the methodology suggested in Italy by the Centro Nazionale per l'Eccellenza delle cure (CNEC) and Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS). Whenever possible, recommendations are placed within the context the Italian Healthcare system, with reference to specific experience and local diagnostic and management resources. Level of evidence: Level of evidence of recommendations for each PICO question were reported according to available evidence.

Non-invasive diagnosis and follow-up of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

NAFLD is a frequent disease that affects 25% of the worldwide population. There is no specific diagnostic test for NAFLD, and the diagnosis mainly relies on the elimination of the other causes of chronic liver diseases with liver biopsy kept for unsure diagnoses. Non-invasive tests are now available to assess NAFLD severity and therefore to help physicians decide on the patient management and follow-up. These non-invasive tests can also be used to define pathways that organize referrals from primary care and diabetology clinics to the liver specialist, with the ambition to improve the screening of asymptomatic patients with NAFLD and advanced liver disease. NAFLD being the liver expression of the metabolic syndrome, physicians need also take care to screen for diabetes and to evaluate the cardiovascular risk in those patients. These recommendations from the French Association for the Study of the Liver (AFEF) aim at providing guidance on the following questions: how to diagnose NAFLD; how non-invasive tests should be used to assess NAFLD severity; how to follow patients with NAFLD; when to perform liver biopsy in NAFLD; and how to decide referral to the liver specialist for a patient with NAFLD.

Prognostic performance of 7 biomarkers compared to liver biopsy in early alcohol-related liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol is the most common cause of liver-related mortality and morbidity. We therefore aimed to assess and compare the prognostic performance of elastography and blood-based markers to predict time to the first liver-related event, severe infection, and all-cause mortality in patients with a history of excess drinking.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study in patients with early, compensated alcohol-related liver disease. At baseline, we obtained a liver biopsy, transient elastography (TE), 2-dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE), enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF), FibroTest, fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), non-alcoholic fatty liver fibrosis score (NFS) and Forns index. We compared C-statistics and time-dependent AUC for prognostication. We used validated cut-off points to create 3 risk groups for each test: low, intermediate and high risk.

RESULTS

We followed 462 patients for a median of 49 months (IQR 31-70). Median age was 57 years, 76% were males, 20% had advanced fibrosis. Eighty-four patients (18%) developed a liver-related event after a median of 18 months (7-34). TE had the highest prognostic accuracy, with a C-statistic of 0.876, and time-dependent AUC at 5 years of 0.889, comparable to 2D-SWE and ELF. TE, ELF and 2D-SWE outperformed FibroTest, FIB4, NFS, Forns index and biopsy-verified fibrosis stage. Compared to patients with TE <10 kPa, the hazard ratios for liver-related events for TE 10-15 kPa were 8.1 (3.2-20.4), and 27.9 (13.8-56.8) for TE >15 kPa. Periods of excessive drinking during follow-up increased the risk of progressing to liver-related events, except for patients in the low-risk groups.

CONCLUSION

TE, ELF and 2D-SWE are highly accurate prognostic markers in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. Easy-to-use cut-offs can distinguish between substantially different risk profiles.

LAY SUMMARY

Alcohol is the leading cause of death and illness due to liver disease. In this study, we assessed the ability of biomarkers to predict the risk of developing symptomatic liver disease in patients with early stages of alcohol-related liver disease. We found that several tests accurately predicted the risk of liver-related events such as ascites, esophageal varices and hepatic encephalopathy during an average follow-up of 4.1 years. Liver stiffness measurements by ultrasound elastography and the enhanced liver fibrosis test performed best. By using them, we were able to stratify patients into 3 groups with significantly different risks.

Addition of hyaluronic acid to the FIB-4 liver fibrosis score improves prediction of incident cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with increased risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with chronic liver diseases, particularly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the absolute risk of progression is low. So, it is crucial to accurately identify patients who would benefit most from hepatology referral and intensified management. Current risk-stratification tools are suboptimal and perform worse in people with diabetes.

AIMS

To determine whether the addition of complementary biomarker(s) to current NAFLD risk-stratification tools in people with T2D could improve the identification of people who are at increased risk of developing incident cirrhosis or HCC.

METHODS

The Edinburgh Type 2 diabetes Study (ET2DS) is a cohort study of men and women with T2D (n = 1066, age 60-75 at baseline). Cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified over 11 years of follow-up. Biomarkers were measured at baseline and year 1 and association with incident disease was assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of existing risk-stratification scores tested, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and the AST:platelet ratio index (APRI) performed best in this cohort. Addition of hyaluronic acid (cut-point ≥ 50  μ  g/L) to FIB-4 (cut-point ≥ 1.3) maintained a false negative rate of ≤25% and reduced the number of people incorrectly identified as "high risk" for incident disease by ∼50%.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of hyaluronic acid to FIB-4 reduced the proportion of people inappropriately identified as "high risk" for development of cirrhosis/HCC in a community population of otherwise asymptomatic people with T2D. These findings require a validation in independent cohorts.

Cross-talk between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease: Implications for future trial design

The natural history of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is still not fully elucidated. Patients with NAFLD have a low risk of liver complications, unless substantial liver fibrosis has developed. On the other hand, NAFLD has been linked with excess metabolic and cardiovascular complications. Therapies targeting common pathways may benefit both NAFLD and underlying cardiometabolic risk. Therefore, there is a rationale for considering cardiovascular endpoints in the context of NAFLD trials and, vice-versa, to consider the concomitant presence of NAFLD in drug development for cardiometabolic disorders. This manuscript provides a framework for consideration for future trials examining the inter-relationship between cardiovascular disease and NAFLD.

Outcomes and potential surrogate markers for future clinical trials of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has emerged as a major public health problem, and the burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis is projected to increase by 64%-156% by 2030. The threat is aggravated by the fact that are currently no approved drugs for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. In this paper, we review the main challenges to drug development in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis, and describe the opportunities brought by the advances in the understanding of the clinical and pathophysiological nuances of cirrhosis. The design of therapeutic regimens for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis will vary according to the specific cirrhosis substage (compensated vs decompensated), and the specific mechanistic basis of therapy, targeted either at improving aetiology-specific pathways and/or at more general aetiology-agnostic processes. The understanding of the probabilistic expectations for the whole range of potential outcomes, rooted at different mechanistic drivers at each specific substage, will be essential in order to choose adequate estimands and therapeutic strategies for clinical trials and individual patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis. Finally, we provide a summary of the main pitfalls and uncertainties in the design of clinical trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis and discuss potential biomarkers for use in trials and practice for these patients.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on non-invasive tests for evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis - 2021 update

Non-invasive tests are increasingly being used to improve the diagnosis and prognostication of chronic liver diseases across aetiologies. Herein, we provide the latest update to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the use of non-invasive tests for the evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis, focusing on the topics for which relevant evidence has been published in the last 5 years.

Racial differences in prevalence and severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

The aim of this review is to assess the evidence regarding racial differences in the prevalence and severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We reviewed the published literature that reported prevalence, severity, and genetic associations of NAFLD in different ethnic groups. The metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been associated with NAFLD, but each component of the MetS is present in various races in different percentages and their effect on NAFLD appears to be dissimilar. An elevated triglyceride (TG) level seems to have the strongest association with NAFLD. The latter is more prevalent in Hispanic patients; Blacks have lower TG levels and a lower NAFLD prevalence, compared to Caucasians or Hispanics. The severity of liver fibrosis is lower in some, but not all biopsy-based studies of Black patients. No study has evaluated the severity of liver disease controlling for the individual components of MetS, especially TG. Important racial differences in the prevalence of selected genetic polymorphisms, particularly PNPLA-3 and MBOAT7 have been documented, together with their effects on the prevalence of liver steatosis and fibrosis. Data on overall and liver mortality have found no significant differences according to race/ethnicity, with the possible exception of one paper reporting lower cirrhosis mortality in Black patients. We conclude that NAFLD is more prevalent in Hispanics and less in Blacks. This is supported by differences in key genetic polymorphisms associated with hepatic fat storage. However, there is presently insufficient evidence to firmly conclude that race, per se, plays a role in the development of liver fibrosis and its complications. Further studies, appropriately controlled for diet, exercise, and individual MetS parameters are needed.

The role of fibrosis index FIB-4 in predicting liver fibrosis stage and clinical prognosis: A diagnostic or screening tool?

This review evaluates the ability of the fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4) identifying fibrosis stages, long-time prognosis in chronic liver disease, and short-time outcomes in acute liver injury. FIB-4 was accurate in predicting the absence or presence of advanced fibrosis with cut-offs of 1.0 and 2.65 for viral hepatitis B, 1.45 and 3.25 for viral hepatitis C, 1.30 (<65 years), 2.0 (≥65 years), and 2.67 for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), respectively, but had a low-to-moderate accuracy in alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and autoimmune hepatitis. It performed better in excluding fibrosis, so we built an algorithm for identifying advanced fibrosis by combined methods and giving work-up and follow-up suggestions. High FIB-4 in viral hepatitis, NAFLD, and ALD was associated with significantly high hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and mortality. Additionally, FIB-4 showed the ability to predict high-risk varices with cut-offs of 2.87 and 3.91 in cirrhosis patients and predict long-term survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy. In acute liver injury caused by COVID-19, FIB-4 had a predictive value for mechanical ventilation and 30-day mortality. Finally, FIB-4 may act as a screening tool in the secondary prevention of NAFLD in the high-risk population.

NASH in HIV

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Aging-related comorbidities, including liver disease, represent the main drivers of morbidity and mortality in people with HIV (PWH). Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) seems a frequent comorbidity in aging PWH nowadays. NAFLD results from a fat deposition into the liver parenchyma that may evolve to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), a state of hepatocellular inflammation and injury in response to the accumulated fat leading to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. We here review the current status of knowledge regarding this emerging comorbidity in PWH.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies suggest that PWH are at higher risk for both NASH and NASH-related liver fibrosis. Several hypothesized pathogenic mechanisms may account for this finding, including increased metabolic comorbidities, hepatotoxic effect of lifelong antiretroviral therapy, and chronic HIV infection. In clinical practice, non-invasive diagnostic tests, such as serum biomarkers and elastography, may help identify patients with NASH-related fibrosis, thus improving risk stratification, and enhancing clinical management decisions, including early initiation of interventions such as lifestyle changes and potential pharmacologic interventions. Clinicians should remain informed of the frequency, significance, and diagnostic and management approach to NASH in PWH.

FIB-4 First in the Diagnostic Algorithm of Metabolic-Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease in the Era of the Global Metabodemic

The prevalence of obesity or metabolic syndrome is increasing worldwide (globally metabodemic). Approximately 25% of the adult general population is suffering from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which has become a serious health problem. In 2020, global experts suggested that the nomenclature of NAFLD should be updated to metabolic-dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). Hepatic fibrosis is the most significant determinant of all cause- and liver -related mortality in MAFLD. The non-invasive test (NIT) is urgently required to evaluate hepatic fibrosis in MAFLD. The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index is the first triaging tool for excluding advanced fibrosis because of its accuracy, simplicity, and cheapness, especially for general physicians or endocrinologists, although the FIB-4 index has several drawbacks. Accumulating evidence has suggested that vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test may become useful as the second step after triaging by the FIB-4 index. The leading cause of mortality in MAFLD is cardiovascular disease (CVD), extrahepatic malignancy, and liver-related diseases. MAFLD often complicates chronic kidney disease (CKD), resulting in increased simultaneous liver kidney transplantation. The FIB-4 index could be a predictor of not only liver-related mortality and incident hepatocellular carcinoma, but also prevalent and incident CKD, CVD, and extrahepatic malignancy. Although NITs as milestones for evaluating treatment efficacy have never been established, the FIB-4 index is expected to reflect histological hepatic fibrosis after treatment in several longitudinal studies. We here review the role of the FIB-4 index in the management of MAFLD.

Prognostic accuracy of FIB-4, NAFLD fibrosis score and APRI for NAFLD-related events: A systematic review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Fibrosis is the strongest predictor for long-term clinical outcomes among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). There is growing interest in employing non-invasive methods for risk stratification based on prognosis. FIB-4, NFS and APRI are models commonly used for detecting fibrosis among NAFLD patients. We aimed to synthesize existing literature on the ability of these models in prognosticating NAFLD-related events.

METHODS

A sensitive search was conducted in two medical databases to retrieve studies evaluating the prognostic accuracy of FIB-4, NFS and APRI among NAFLD patients. Target events were change in fibrosis, liver-related event and mortality. Two reviewers independently performed reference screening, data extraction and quality assessment (QUAPAS tool).

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies (FIB-4:12, NFS: 11, APRI: 10), published between 2013 and 2019, were retrieved. All studies were conducted in a secondary or tertiary care setting, with follow-up ranging from 1 to 20 years. All three markers showed consistently good prognostication of liver-related events (AUC from 0.69 to 0.92). For mortality, FIB-4 (AUC of 0.67-0.82) and NFS (AUC of 0.70-0.83) outperformed APRI (AUC of 0.52-0.73) in all studies. All markers had inconsistent performance for predicting change in fibrosis stage.

CONCLUSIONS

FIB-4, NFS, and APRI have demonstrated ability to risk stratify patients for liver-related morbidity and mortality, with comparable performance to a liver biopsy, although more head-to-head studies are needed to validate this. More refined models to prognosticate NAFLD-events may further enhance performance and clinical utility of non-invasive markers.

Liver Fibrosis in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: From Liver Biopsy to Non-invasive Biomarkers in Diagnosis and Treatment

An increasing percentage of people have or are at risk to develop non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) worldwide. NAFLD comprises different stadia going from isolated steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NASH is a chronic state of liver inflammation that leads to the transformation of hepatic stellate cells to myofibroblasts. These cells produce extra-cellular matrix that results in liver fibrosis. In a normal situation, fibrogenesis is a wound healing process that preserves tissue integrity. However, sustained and progressive fibrosis can become pathogenic. This process takes many years and is often asymptomatic. Therefore, patients usually present themselves with end-stage liver disease e.g., liver cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease or even hepatocellular carcinoma. Fibrosis has also been identified as the most important predictor of prognosis in patients with NAFLD. Currently, only a minority of patients with liver fibrosis are identified to be at risk and hence referred for treatment. This is not only because the disease is largely asymptomatic, but also due to the fact that currently liver biopsy is still the golden standard for accurate detection of liver fibrosis. However, performing a liver biopsy harbors some risks and requires resources and expertise, hence is not applicable in every clinical setting and is unsuitable for screening. Consequently, different non-invasive diagnostic tools, mainly based on analysis of blood or other specimens or based on imaging have been developed or are in development. In this review, we will first give an overview of the pathogenic mechanisms of the evolution from isolated steatosis to fibrosis. This serves as the basis for the subsequent discussion of the current and future diagnostic biomarkers and anti-fibrotic drugs.

Prognostic value of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging, transient elastography and blood-based fibrosis markers in patients with chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver cT₁ , liver T₁ , transient elastography (TE) and blood-based biomarkers have independently been shown to predict clinical outcomes but have not been directly compared in a single cohort of patients. Our aim was to compare these tests' prognostic value in a cohort of patients with compensated chronic liver disease.

METHODS

Patients with unselected compensated liver disease aetiologies had baseline assessments and were followed up for development of clinical outcomes, blinded to the imaging results. The prognostic value of non-invasive liver tests at prespecified thresholds was assessed for a combined clinical endpoint comprising ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and mortality.

RESULTS

One hundred and ninety-seven patients (61% male) with median age of 54 years were followed up for 693 patient-years (median (IQR) 43 (26-58) months). The main diagnoses were NAFLD (41%), viral hepatitis (VH, 25%) and alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD; 14%). During follow-up 14 new clinical events, and 11 deaths occurred. Clinical outcomes were predicted by liver cT₁  > 825ms with HR 9.9 (95% CI: 1.29-76.4, P = .007), TE > 8kPa with HR 7.8 (95% CI: 0.97-62.3, P = .02) and FIB-4 > 1.45 with HR 4.09 (95% CI: 0.90-18.4, P = .05). In analysis taking into account technical failure and unreliability, liver cT₁  > 825 ms could predict clinical outcomes (P = .03), but TE > 8kPa could not (P = .4).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide further evidence that liver cT₁ , TE and serum-based biomarkers can predict clinical outcomes, but when taking into account technical failure/unreliability, TE cut-offs perform worse than those of cT₁ and blood biomarkers.

Semaglutide for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: Trial design and comparison of non-invasive biomarkers

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic liver disease. There is a clear need to develop pharmacological treatment for patients with NASH as well as biomarkers that can diagnose the disease. We describe a trial of semaglutide treatment for NASH, identify key patient characteristics and compare the relationship of patient characteristics and non-invasive biomarkers/scores. NCT02970942 is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-national Phase 2 trial of daily subcutaneous semaglutide (0.1 mg, 0.2 mg, 0.4 mg) in patients with biopsy-confirmed NASH, F1-F3 fibrosis, NAFLD Activity Score ≥ 4, and body mass index (BMI) > 25 kg/m². Exploratory analyses were performed to evaluate correlations between baseline parameters and biomarkers in NASH. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 320 randomised patients was 55 (11) years, mean BMI was 36 (6) kg/m², and 199 (62%) had type 2 diabetes. Of the total patients, 28% had F1 fibrosis, 23% had F2 fibrosis and 49% had F3 fibrosis. The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.69) for accuracy in classifying fibrosis stage, F2-3 versus F1, was observed for Fib-4 and Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF). No substantial correlation between BMI or other clinical or biochemical parameters and fibrosis stage was observed. In this large Phase 2 trial of semaglutide treatment for NASH, the clinical profile of enrolled patients was typical for patients with NASH. Of the investigated biomarkers/scores, ELF and Fib-4 showed the most apparent correlation in classifying fibrosis stage, but had only moderate predictive value.

Advances in non-invasive biomarkers for the diagnosis and monitoring of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the most common chronic liver disease in the United States, affecting approximately 1 out of every 4 Americans. NAFLD is a spectrum of disorders including simple steatosis, characterized by the presence of hepatic steatosis with minimal inflammation, and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), characterized by the presence of hepatic steatosis with lobular inflammation, ballooning with or without peri-sinusoidal fibrosis. NASH may lead to progressive fibrosis, and therefore, Individuals with NASH and, in particular, hepatic fibrosis are at increased risk for both liver- and cardiovascular-related outcomes compared to those with steatosis alone. New treatments for NASH and hepatic fibrosis are emerging, so now, more than ever, it is important to identify individuals with more advanced disease who may be candidates for therapy. Noninvasive methods to accurately diagnosis, risk stratify, and monitor both NASH and fibrosis are critically needed. Moreover, since clinically relevant outcomes, such as developing end stage liver disease or liver cancer, take many years to develop, reliable surrogate markers of outcome measures are needed to identify and evaluate potential therapies. In this review, we discuss methods to noninvasively diagnosis and monitor both NASH and fibrosis.

Established and emerging factors affecting the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most common chronic liver disease affecting approximately 25% of the global population. Although a majority of NAFLD patients will never experience liver-related symptoms it is estimated that 5-10% will develop cirrhosis-related complications with risk of death or need for liver transplantation. NAFLD is closely associated with cardiovascular disease and components of the metabolic syndrome. However, NAFLD is not uncommon in lean individuals and may in these subjects represent a different entity with separate pathophysiological mechanisms involved implying a higher risk for development of end-stage liver disease. There is considerable fluctuation in the histopathological course of NAFLD that may partly be attributed to lifestyle factors and dietary composition. Nutrients such as fructose, monounsaturated fatty acids, and trans-fatty acids may aggravate NAFLD. Presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus seems to be the most important clinical predictor of liver-related morbidity and mortality in NAFLD. Apart from severity of the metabolic syndrome, genetic polymorphisms and environmental factors, such as moderate alcohol consumption, may explain the variation in histopathological and clinical outcome among NAFLD patients.

Non-invasive risk scores do not reliably identify future cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma in Type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increased in Type 2 diabetes, primarily secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). European guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in Type 2 diabetes. American guidelines, while not advocating a screening protocol, suggest using non-invasive markers of fibrosis for risk-stratification and guiding onward referral.

AIMS

To test the ability of individual fibrosis scores and the European screening algorithm to predict 11-year incident cirrhosis/HCC in an asymptomatic community cohort of older people with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study investigated men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n = 1066, aged 60-75 at baseline). Liver markers were measured at baseline and year 1; steatosis and fibrosis markers were calculated according to independently published calculations. During 11 years of follow-up, cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified.

RESULTS

Forty-three out of 1059 participants with no baseline cirrhosis/HCC developed incident disease. All scores were significantly associated with incident liver disease by odds ratio (P < .05). The ability of the risk-stratification tools to accurately identify those who developed incident cirrhosis/HCC was poor with low-positive predictive values (5-46%) and high false-negative and -positive rates (up to 60% and 77%) respectively. When fibrosis risk scores were used in conjunction with the European algorithm, they performed modestly better than when applied in isolation.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort with a moderately low incidence of cirrhosis/HCC, existing risk scores did not reliably identify participants at high risk. Better prediction models for cirrhosis/HCC in people with Type 2 diabetes are required.

Elevation of Liver Fibrosis Index FIB-4 Is Associated With Poor Clinical Outcomes in Patients With COVID-19

Background

COVID-19 is a potentially severe disease caused by the recently described SARS-CoV-2. Whether liver fibrosis might be a relevant player in the natural history of COVID-19 is currently unknown. We aimed to evaluate the association between FIB-4 and the risk of progression to critical illness in middle-aged patients with COVID-19.

Methods

In this multicenter, retrospective study with prospective follow-up of 160 patients aged 35–65 years with COVID-19, FIB-4, clinical, and biochemical variables were collected at baseline. FIB-4 ≥2.67 defined patients with risk for advanced liver fibrosis.

Results

Risk for advanced fibrosis was estimated in 28.1% of patients. Patients with FIB-4 ≥2.67 more frequently required mechanical ventilation (37.8% vs 18.3%; P = .009). In multivariate analysis, FIB-4 ≥2.67 (odds ratio [OR], 3.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30–8.92), cardiovascular risk factors (OR, 5.05; 95% CI, 1.90–13.39), previous respiratory diseases (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 1.36–15.10), and C-reactive protein (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01–1.02) increased significantly the risk of ICU admission. Bootstrap confirmed FIB-4 as an independent risk factor.

Conclusions

In middle-aged patients with COVID-19, FIB-4 may have a prognostic role. The link between liver fibrosis and the natural history of COVID-19 should be evaluated in future studies.

Association Between Fibrosis Stage and Outcomes of Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Biopsy-confirmed liver fibrosis is a prognostic factor for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a systematic review to quantify the prognostic value of fibrosis stage in patients with NAFLD and the subgroup of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and to assess the evidence that change in fibrosis stage is a surrogate endpoint.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and trial registry databases through August 2018 for prospective or retrospective cohort studies of liver-related clinical events and outcomes in adults with NAFLD or NASH. We collected data on mortality (all cause and liver related) and morbidity (cirrhosis, liver cancer, and all liver-related events) by stage of fibrosis, determined by biopsy, for patients with NAFLD or NASH. Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, we calculated fibrosis stage-specific relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) values for mortality and morbidities. We performed fixed-effect and random-effect model meta-analyses. Metaregression was used to examine associations among study design (prospective vs retrospective cohort), overall risk of bias (medium or high), and mean duration of follow-up (in years).

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis included 13 studies, comprising 4428 patients with NAFLD; 2875 of these were reported to have NASH. Compared with no fibrosis (stage 0), unadjusted risk increased with increasing stage of fibrosis (stage 0 vs 4): all-cause mortality RR, 3.42 (95% CI, 2.63-4.46); liver-related mortality RR, 11.13 (95% CI, 4.15-29.84); liver transplant RR, 5.42 (95% CI, 1.05-27.89); and liver-related events RR, 12.78 (95% CI, 6.85-23.85). The magnitude of RR did not differ significantly after adjustment for confounders, including age or sex in the subgroup of NAFLD patients with NASH. Three studies examined the effects of increasing fibrosis on quality of life had inconsistent findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found biopsy-confirmed fibrosis to be associated with risk of mortality and liver-related morbidity in patients with NAFLD, with and without adjustment for confounding factors and in patients with reported NASH. Further studies are needed to assess the association between fibrosis stage and patient quality of life and establish that change in liver fibrosis stage is a valid endpoint for use in clinical trials.

Prevalence of liver fibrosis in an unselected general population with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes mellitus. Time for screening?

INTRODUCTION

Cirrhosis and liver cancer are currently common causes of death worldwide. The global epidemic of obesity has increased the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and cirrhosis in recent years. Advanced fibrosis increases the morbimortality rate in NAFLD. The Mexican population has one of the highest prevalence of obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM) worldwide.

AIM

To determine the prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis in Mexican general population.

METHODS

Adult individuals, without a history of liver disease nor heavy alcohol consumption were randomly sampled from 20,919 participants of a health and nutrition survey applied to the general population. Clinical and laboratory evaluations were performed to calculate the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) (an extensively validated non-invasive method). Two cut-off points were used. Advanced fibrosis was defined as a result >0.676.

RESULTS

In total 695 individuals were included. The mean age was 47.8±16.4. The majority were between 20 and 50 years (59%), 70.2% were female, 35.5% showed obesity and 15.8% DM. The 93% had normal serum ALT. Based on the NFS results, 56 individuals (8.1%) had a high probability of fibrosis. Most patients from this subgroup showed normal serum ALT (92.9%), 89.3% were >45yr. old, 52% were obese and 27% suffered from DM.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these results, 8.1% of Mexican general population without a history of liver disease is at high risk of having advanced liver fibrosis and complications and death derived from cardiovascular disease and cirrhosis. Most of them showed normal ALT serum levels.

Noninvasive inflammatory markers for assessing liver fibrosis stage in autoimmune hepatitis patients

OBJECTIVE

To examine the accuracy of noninvasive inflammatory markers in predicting liver fibrosis stage in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 55 patients with AIH and 60 healthy controls in this study, and divided them into three groups: F0 (control); F1-F3 (noncirrhotic fibrosis); and F4 (cirrhosis). The following markers were analyzed for all participants: lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio (LNR); lymphocyte-to-platelet ratio (LPR); lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR); immunoglobulin-to-platelet ratio (IGPR); aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI); aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR); and fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4). The predictive accuracy of these noninvasive markers was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Multivariate ordinal logistic regression models were used to analyze associations between the noninvasive markers and liver fibrosis stage.

RESULTS

AAR, LPR, LMR, IGPR, APRI, and FIB-4 were linked to liver fibrosis-stage (P < 0.05), with correlation indices of - 0.219, 0.258, - 0.149, 0.647, 0.841, and 0.704, respectively, but not LNR (P = 0.093). area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of LPR, IGPR, AAR, LMR, APRI, and FIB-4 for detecting cirrhosis (F4 vs. F0-F3) were 0.936 (95% confidence interval: 0.870-1.000, P < 0.001), 0.939 (0.875-1.000, P < 0.001), 0.528 (0.319-0.738, P = 0.768), 0.555 (0.409-0.700, P = 0.568), 0.798 (0.694-0.902, P = 0.002), and 0.881 (0.796-0.967, P < 0.001). Our multivariate ordinal regression analysis showed that LPR and IGPR were associated independently with liver fibrosis stage, with a coefficient of 0.385 (95% confidence interval: 0.103-0.667, P = 0.007) and 14.903 (2.091-27.786, P = 0.023), respectively.

CONCLUSION

LPR and IGPR were associated independently with liver fibrosis stage in treatment-naive AIH, and were superior to APRI and FIB-4 in detecting cirrhosis.

Accuracy of Noninvasive Scoring Systems in Assessing Risk of Death and Liver-Related Endpoints in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several non-invasive scoring systems have been developed to determine risk of advanced fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We examined the association between 4 scoring systems and incident severe liver disease and overall mortality in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, recruited from 2 hospitals in Sweden, from 1971 through 2009. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), FIB-4, APRI, and BARD scores were calculated at the time of the liver biopsy. Based on each score, patients were assigned to categories of low, intermediate, or high risk for advanced fibrosis. Overall mortality and severe liver disease (cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, liver failure, or hepatocellular carcinoma) were ascertained through linkage with national registers until the end of 2014. Cox regression, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and C-statistic analyses were used to study the predictive capacity of each scoring system.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up time of 19.9±8.7 years, there were 214 deaths and 76 cases of severe liver disease. For overall mortality, AUROC curve values were: NFS, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.76); FIB-4, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.76); BARD, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58-0.66); and APRI, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.47-0.57). For severe liver disease, AUROC curve values were: NFS, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.78); FIB-4, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79); BARD, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.55-0.69); APRI, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76). C-statistics for all scores were of moderate capacity to predict outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective analysis of data from 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, we found the NFS and the FIB-4 scores to most accurately determine risk of overall death or severe liver disease. However, the AUROC values for these scoring systems are not high enough for use in the clinic; new systems are needed to determine prognoses of patients with NAFLD.

Noninvasive evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Current evidence and practice

With the increasing number of individuals with diabetes and obesity, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming increasingly prevalent, affecting one-quarter of adults worldwide. The spectrum of NAFLD ranges from simple steatosis or nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NAFLD, especially NASH, may progress to fibrosis, leading to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. NAFLD can impose a severe economic burden, and patients with NAFLD-related terminal or deteriorative liver diseases have become one of the main groups receiving liver transplantation. The increasing prevalence of NAFLD and the severe outcomes of NASH make it necessary to use effective methods to identify NAFLD. Although recognized as the gold standard, biopsy is limited by its sampling bias, poor acceptability, and severe complications, such as mortality, bleeding, and pain. Therefore, noninvasive methods are urgently needed to avoid biopsy for diagnosing NAFLD. This review discusses the current noninvasive methods for assessing NAFLD, including steatosis, NASH, and NAFLD-related fibrosis, and explores the advantages and disadvantages of measurement tools. In addition, we analyze potential noninvasive biomarkers for tracking disease processes and monitoring treatment effects, and explore effective algorithms consisting of imaging and nonimaging biomarkers for diagnosing advanced fibrosis and reducing unnecessary biopsies in clinical practice.

Simple Scores of Fibrosis and Mortality in Patients with NAFLD: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

Noninvasive simple scores have been validated to assess advanced liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis evaluating if NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score may also predict mortality. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched until April 2018. Random-effects models were used to calculate pooled RRs of mortality for highest vs. lowest categories of exposure and to perform dose-response meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Q test and I² statistic. Overall, eight studies were included in the systematic review; all of the eight studies provided data for NFS, while four provided data for APRI and FIB-4. When comparing the risk estimates for high (>0.676) vs. intermediate + low NFS (≤0.676), we found a nearly fourfold increase in mortality risk, with evidence of heterogeneity (RR = 3.85, 95% CI: 2.08, 7.11; I² = 92%). At dose-response meta-analysis, compared to the midpoint of the lowest category of NFS (−2.5), the risk of mortality was about twofold higher for NFS = −0.5 (RR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.31, 3.70) and more than fivefold higher for NFS = 1.5 (RR = 5.16, 95% CI: 2.02, 13.16). When comparing the risk estimates for high (>1.5) vs. medium + low APRI (≤1.5), we found a higher risk of mortality, without heterogeneity (RR = 3.61, 95% CI: 1.79, 7.28; I² = 0%). Comparison of the risk estimates for high (>2.67) vs. medium + low FIB-4 (≤2.67) didn’t reveal a significantly higher risk of mortality, with heterogeneity (RR = 2.27, 95% CI: 0.72, 7.15; I² = 85%). Dose-response analysis for APRI and FIB-4 was not considered conclusive due to the low number of studies. Based on the results of our meta-analysis, the measurement of NFS can be considered an accurate tool for the stratification of the risk of death in patients with NAFLD.

Noninvasive scoring systems predict hepatic and extra-hepatic cancers in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis predicts liver-related morbidity and mortality in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Non-invasive scores correlate with the degree of liver fibrosis in these patients.

AIMS AND METHODS

To investigate the accuracy of noninvasive scoring systems in predicting long-term outcomes and cancer incidence of patients with NAFLD, we performed a single-center retrospective study of patients with biopsy proven NAFLD. Mean follow up period was 100 months. Outcomes included liver-related complications, hospitalizations, overall mortality and the development of any malignancies.

RESULTS

32 patients had advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) per biopsy at baseline and 121 patients had mild to moderate fibrosis (F0-F2). Both advanced histologic fibrosis stage as well as higher non-invasive scores predicted repeated hospitalizations and longer hospitalization stays. In a multivariate analysis, liver fibrosis (p = 0.002), FIB-4 score (p<0.001), NFS (p<0.001) but not APRI score (p = 0.07) were predictors of overall mortality, and the occurrence of malignancies was associated with higher APRI (p<0.001), FIB-4 (p<0.001) and NFS (p = 0.008) scores, but not with advanced fibrosis, as determined by liver biopsy (p = 0.105).

CONCLUSIONS

In NAFLD patients, noninvasive scoring systems are good predictors of morbidity and mortality and may have an additive value in predicting the development of hepatic and extra-hepatic cancers.

The utility of NAFLD fibrosis score for prediction of mortality among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort study

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common liver disorder worldwide. Several noninvasive diagnostic scoring systems have been developed to determine the severity of liver fibrosis and to predict long-term outcome of patients with NAFLD in lieu of liver biopsy. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) for prediction of mortality from NAFLD.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched through October 2016 for studies that investigated the association between high NFS and mortality. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model, generic inverse variance method. The between-study heterogeneity of effect-size was quantified using the Q statistic and I².

RESULTS

A total of five cohort studies with 5033 NAFLD patients were identified. High NFS (score of greater than 0.675) was significantly associated with increased mortality with the pooled RR of 4.54 (95%CI: 1.85-11.17). The statistical heterogeneity was high with I² of 88% (P_{heterogeneity}<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

High NFS is associated with increased risk of mortality among patients with NAFLD. This scoring system may be considered as an alternative to liver biopsy for prediction of mortality outcome.

Liver fibrosis scores predict liver disease mortality in the United States population

Fatty liver disease is common in the United States and worldwide due to changing lifestyles and can progress to fibrosis and cirrhosis contributing to premature death. We examined whether liver fibrosis scores were associated with increased overall and disease-specific mortality in a United States population-based prospective survey with up to 23 years of linked-mortality data. Data were analyzed from 14,841 viral hepatitis-negative adult participants in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994. Liver fibrosis was predicted using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), and Forns score. Participants were passively followed for mortality, identified by death certificate underlying or contributing causes, by linkage to National Death Index records through 2011. Hazard ratios (HR) for mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression to adjust for mortality risk factors. During follow-up, cumulative mortality was 28.0% from all causes and 0.82% with liver disease, including primary liver cancer. Elevated liver disease mortality was found with an intermediate to high APRI (HR, 9.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.02-17.73), intermediate (HR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.33-7.44) or high (HR, 25.14; 95% CI, 8.38-75.40) FIB-4 score, high NFS (HR, 6.52; 95% CI, 2.30-18.50), and intermediate (HR, 3.58; 95% CI, 1.78-7.18) or high (HR, 63.13; 95% CI, 22.16-179.78) Forns score. Overall mortality was also greater with higher fibrosis scores.

CONCLUSION

In the United States population, higher liver fibrosis scores were associated with increased liver disease and overall mortality. Liver health management with common clinical measures of fibrosis risk stratification merits further investigation. (Hepatology 2017;66:84-95).

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and the ongoing role of liver biopsy evaluation

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common underlying causes of chronically elevated liver tests and liver disease in adults and children worldwide and may be strongly suspected if not diagnosed by ever evolving and available serologic and imaging‐based noninvasive tests. However, the definitive diagnosis of the most progressive form of NAFLD, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and the identification of fibrosis stage still require liver biopsy evaluation as noninvasive testing has not replaced some of the specifics or the totality of information obtainable from liver biopsy. In this review, both the role and value of a liver biopsy evaluation in NAFLD/ nonalcoholic steatohepatitis are examined from publications related to a selected variety of settings. Details of the most commonly used semiquantitative methods of analysis are discussed, and some useful potential pitfalls for differential diagnostic consideration in liver biopsy interpretation are given. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:370–378)

Nonalcoholic steatofibrosis independently predicts mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The minimal pathologic criteria for NASH include hepatic steatosis, ballooning degeneration, and lobular inflammation. The resolution of NASH, which relies on the loss of ballooning degeneration, is subject to sampling and observer variability in pathologic interpretation. Ballooning is associated with advanced hepatic fibrosis in cross‐sectional studies but is not a predictor of mortality in NAFLD. Fibrosis staging, while still subject to some sampling variability, has less observer variability and is a robust predictor of liver‐related mortality in NAFLD. In this study, we hypothesize that, regardless of the diagnosis of NASH, the presence of steatofibrosis (steatosis accompanied by fibrosis) regardless of other pathologic features can also be a robust predictor of mortality in NAFLD. We used our previously reported cohort of patients with NAFLD with liver biopsies and long‐term mortality follow‐up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the predictors of overall and liver‐related mortality. Of 209 enrolled NAFLD subjects, 97 can be classified as having steatofibrosis. During follow‐up (median 150 months), 64 (30.6%) patients died, with 18 (8.6%) from liver‐related causes. Adjusted for age, both diagnostic categories of NASH and steatofibrosis were significantly and similarly associated with liver‐related mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 9.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3‐74.9; P = 0.027; aHR, 6.7; 95% CI, 1.5‐29.8; P = 0.013, respectively). However, only steatofibrosis showed independent association with overall mortality (aHR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.02‐3.05; P = 0.043). Conclusion: Steatofibrosis and NASH are similarly associated with liver‐related mortality, but only steatofibrosis is associated with overall mortality in patients with NAFLD. Given the inherent observer variability in ballooning degeneration, a key diagnostic component of NASH, we suggest that steatofibrosis should be considered a viable diagnostic classification for NAFLD subjects at risk or adverse outcomes and provides a simpler endpoint for clinical trials of therapeutic agents. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:421–428)

Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Liver fibrosis is the most important predictor of mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Quantitative risk of mortality by fibrosis stage has not been systematically evaluated. We aimed to quantify the fibrosis stage-specific risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality in NAFLD. Through a systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified five adult NAFLD cohort studies reporting fibrosis stage-specific mortality (0-4). Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, fibrosis stage-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and liver-related mortality were estimated. The study is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Included were 1,495 NAFLD patients with 17,452 patient years of follow-up. Compared to NAFLD patients with no fibrosis (stage 0), NAFLD patients with fibrosis were at an increased risk for all-cause mortality, and this risk increased with increases in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.58 (95% CI 1.19-2.11); stage 2, MRR = 2.52 (95% CI 1.85-3.42); stage 3, MRR = 3.48 (95% CI 2.51-4.83); and stage 4, MRR = 6.40 (95% CI 4.11-9.95). The results were more pronounced as the risk of liver-related mortality increased exponentially with each increase in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.41 (95% CI 0.17-11.95); stage 2, MRR = 9.57 (95% CI 1.67-54.93); stage 3, MRR = 16.69 (95% CI 2.92-95.36); and stage 4, MRR = 42.30 (95% CI 3.51-510.34). Limitations of the study include an inability to adjust for comorbid conditions or demographics known to impact fibrosis progression in NAFLD and the inclusion of patients with simple steatosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis without fibrosis in the reference comparison group.

CONCLUSION

The risk of liver-related mortality increases exponentially with increase in fibrosis stage; these data have important implications in assessing the utility of each stage and benefits of regression of fibrosis from one stage to another. (Hepatology 2017;65:1557-1565).

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease--a chronic disease of the 21^st century

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) comprises a spectrum of metabolic states ranging from simple steatosis to inflammation with associated fibrosis to cirrhosis. Though accumulation of hepatic fat is not associated with a significant increase in mortality rates, hepatic inflammation is, as this augments the risk of terminal liver disease, i.e., cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation (liver failure) and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Disease progression is usually slow, over a decade or more and, for the most part, remains asymptomatic. Recent estimates suggest that the global prevalence of NAFLD is high, about one in four. In most cases, NAFLD overlaps with overweight, obesity, cardiovascular disease and the metabolic syndrome with numerous contributing parameters including a dysregulation of adipose tissue, insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, changes in the gut microbiome, neuronal and hormonal dysregulation and metabolic stress. NAFLD is diagnosed incidentally, despite its high prevalence. Non-invasive imaging techniques have emerged, making it possible to determine degree of steatosis as well asfibrosis. Despite this, the benefit of routine diagnostics remains uncertain. A better understanding of the (molecular) pathogenesis of NAFLD is needed combined with long-term studies where benefits of treatment can be assessed to determine cost-benefit ratios. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge and possible areas of treatment.