The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network

Trends of cholera epidemics and associated mortality factors in Cameroon: 2018-2023: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Cameroon has faced frequent and severe cholera outbreaks since 1971, with case-fatality rates (CFRs) ranging from 12% in 1991, to 5.3% in 2014, all higher than the less than 1% cholera CFR target set by WHO. However, not many studies providing insight on context-specific risk factors have been published. The purpose of this study was to describe the recent cholera outbreaks in Cameroon and to determine factors associated with mortality.

METHODS

This was an analytical cross-sectional study that employed a retrospective design exploiting Ministry of Public Health cholera line-lists from 2018-2023. These line lists were obtained from the Public Health Emergency Operations Coordination and Control Center, compiled into a single Microsoft Excel Sheet, cleaned and analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and SPSS version 20. Cholera cases were defined as those confirmed in reference laboratories via stool culture and suspected cases with proven epidemiological link to laboratory-confirmed cases (suspected cases in health districts with active laboratory-confirmed cases). Factors associated with cholera mortality were identified using binary logistic regression (adjusted odds ratios), after socio-demographic, clinical, and geographical distribution of cholera cases were described. Maps were generated using QGIS version 3.28.14.

RESULTS

Between May 2018 and March 2023, Cameroon experienced four cholera epidemics resulting in 18,986 reported cases and affecting 8 out of 10 administrative regions. The three coastal regions (Littoral, South and South-West Region) reported 83.4% (15,839/18,986) of all the cases while the remaining five affected regions jointly reported 16.6% (3,147/18,986) cases. The most represented age group were those aged 25-35 years (21.9%; 4,163/1,876) and the male: female sex ratio was 1.27. The overall CFR was 2.7% (478 deaths/17,967 cases with known outcome) and was highest among persons > 65 years (6.8%; 59/869). Urban areas notified more cases than rural areas (13,267 vs 5,484). Factors associated with increased mortality were male sex (aOR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.30-2.04), dry season (aOR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.28-2.22), age above 45 years (aOR 1.79, 95% CI: 1.45-2.22) and severe dehydration at consultation (aOR 12.76, 95% CI: 7.66-21.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Cholera outbreaks occurred in eight out of the ten administrative regions in Cameroon during the study period and mortality appeared to be driven by multiple factors notably severe dehydration at time of consultation, advanced age, male sex and the dry season. The high caseloads and case-fatality rates reiterate the need for further strengthening of existing cholera surveillance and outbreak response mechanisms.

Cholera in Africa: A Climate Change Crisis

BACKGROUND

Cholera, an acute diarrheal infection caused by Vibrio cholerae, remains a significant public health concern globally, with 1.4-4.0 million cases and 21,000-143,000 deaths annually. While the disease is endemic in 47 less-developed countries across Africa and Asia, the African continent has been particularly affected, with 19 of 29 countries reporting cases in 2023 being from Africa.

AIM

To explore the trend of cholera outbreaks in Africa and analyze how climate change has contributed to the spread of the disease in the continent.

METHODS

A review of current cholera outbreaks in Africa, with particular focus on Sudan and Ethiopia as case studies, examining the relationship between climatic factors and cholera transmission.

RESULTS

Recent outbreaks in Sudan (declared September 26, 2023) resulted in 5,414 suspected cases and 170 deaths (case fatality rate 3.1%) across nine states as of December 5, 2023. In Ethiopia's Somali region, 772 confirmed cases and 23 deaths were reported within two weeks, with approximately 80% of cases affecting children. Climate factors significantly influence cholera transmission: a 1 °C temperature rise doubled cholera cases in Zanzibar. Both drought conditions, which increase Vibrio cholerae concentration in groundwater, and heavy rainfall periods, which lead to flooding and breakdown of sanitary conditions, contribute to outbreak risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change impacts cholera transmission through rainfall patterns, temperature variations, and extreme weather events. Management recommendations include implementing accurate weather surveillance systems, strategic vaccination programs, flood-proof water supply infrastructure, and community engagement protocols. These interventions should be integrated while considering the growing influence of climate change on disease patterns.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable.

Urban waste piles are reservoirs for human pathogenic bacteria with high levels of multidrug resistance against last resort antibiotics: A comprehensive temporal and geographic field analysis

Inadequate waste management and poor sanitation practices in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) leads to waste accumulation in urban and peri-urban residential areas. This increases human exposure to hazardous waste, including plastics, which can harbour pathogenic bacteria. Although lab-based studies demonstrate how plastic pollution can increase the persistence and dissemination of dangerous pathogens, empirical data on pathogen association with plastic in real-world settings are limited. We conducted a year-long spatiotemporal sampling survey in a densely populated informal settlement in Malawi, quantifying enteric bacterial pathogens including ESBL-producing E. coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., and Vibrio cholerae. Culture-based screening and molecular approaches were used to quantify the presence of each pathogen, together with the distribution and frequency of resistance to antibiotics. Our data indicate that these pathogens commonly associate with urban waste materials. Elevated levels of these pathogens precede typical infection outbreaks, suggesting that urban waste piles may be an important source of community transmission. Notably, many pathogens displayed increased levels of AMR, including against several 'last resort' antibiotics. These findings highlight urban waste piles as potential hotspots for the dissemination of infectious diseases and AMR and underscores the need for urgent waste management interventions to mitigate public health risks.

An assessment of the progress made in the implementation of the regional framework for cholera prevention and control in the WHO African region

High-burden cholera outbreaks, spreading beyond the traditional cholera-endemic countries, have been reported since 2021 in the WHO African region. Member states in the region have committed to the global goal of cholera elimination by 2030. To track progress towards this goal, WHO-African countries adopted a regional cholera prevention and control framework in 2018. This study reports on 27 countries' 5-year achievements in implementing the cholera regional framework for cholera prevention, and control. Data collected through a web-based self-assessment tool were analysed and visualised through Power BI. Data were provided by national teams of experts on cholera based on the milestones of the framework. Countries' specific progress and regional progress were calculated. The overall regional progress was 53%, ranging from 19% in Mauritania to 76% in Ethiopia. Out of the 27 countries, 3 had made good progress while 14 had fair and 10 had insufficient progress. At the regional level, 4 milestones were on track, 7 were fair and 10 had insufficient progress. Cholera hot spot mapping had the highest score at 85%, while development of investment cases for cholera control scored the lowest at 14%. Although appreciable progress was noted in some milestones, the progress against critical milestones, including for water, sanitation and hygiene, that form the bedrock of cholera control, was insufficient. Effective implementation of the cholera prevention and control framework anchored on strong government commitment and ownership is essential to curb the current trend of cholera outbreaks and improve the likelihood of cholera elimination by 2030 in Africa.

A Systematic Review on the Outcomes of Climate Change in the Middle-Eastern Countries: The Catastrophes of Yemen and Syria

The Middle East is facing serious climate change challenges, rendering it as one of the most affected regions worldwide. This paper aimed to investigate the outcomes of climate change in the Middle East. In 2024, a qualitative study was conducted employing a methodology that integrated systematic review for data collection and thematic analysis for data analysis. Such integration of the approaches provided valuable insights into the findings within the literature in a comprehensive and categorized format. PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for relevant studies published between 2000 and 2024. The quality of these studies was assessed using the AACODS (Accuracy, Coverage, Objectivity, Date, Significance) checklist. The data extracted from the included studies underwent a thematic analysis utilizing Braun and Clarke's methodology. After completing the screening process, a total of 93 papers were deemed suitable for inclusion in the study. The quality assessment of these selected studies demonstrated a notably high standard, particularly in terms of authority, accuracy, coverage, objectivity, and significance. Moreover, minimal levels of bias were observed within the included studies. Subsequent thematic analysis of the findings from the systematic review identified 6 overarching themes: "Human Health Outcomes," "Animal Health Outcomes," "Plant Health Outcomes," "Ecological Outcomes," "Economic Outcomes," and "Political Outcomes." The study revealed ecological outcomes as the most prevalent consequences of climate change in the Middle East, including alterations in habitat distribution, temperature increase, water scarcity, and more. The outcomes seemed to be interconnected, exacerbating each other. Yemen and Syria had faced severe consequences, leading to political unrest and humanitarian crises in which Yemen ranking among the most water-stressed nations globally, while Syria contending with millions of displaced individuals living in dire conditions.

Satellite-Derived, Smartphone-Delivered Geospatial Cholera Risk Information for Vulnerable Populations

Cholera, an acute waterborne diarrheal disease, remains a major global health challenge. Despite being curable and preventable, it can be fatal if left untreated, especially for children. Bangladesh, a cholera-endemic country with a high disease burden, experiences two peaks annually, during the dry pre-monsoon spring and the wet post-monsoon fall seasons. An early warning system for disseminating cholera risk, which has potential to reduce the disease burden, currently does not exist in Bangladesh. Such systems can raise timely awareness and allow households in rural, riverine areas like Matlab to make behavioral adjustments with water usage and around water resources to reduce contracting and transmitting cholera. Current dissemination approaches typically target local government and public health organizations; however, the vulnerable rural populations largely remain outside the information chain. Here, we develop and evaluate the accuracy of an early warning system-CholeraMap that uses high-resolution earth observations to forecast cholera risk and disseminate geocoded risk maps directly to Matlab's population via a mobile smartphone application. Instead of relying on difficult to obtain station-based environmental and hydroclimatological data, this study offers a new opportunity to use remote sensing data sets for designing and operating a disease early warning system. CholeraMap delivers monthly, color-coded geospatial maps (1 km × 1 km spatial resolution) with household and community cholera risk information. Our results demonstrate that the satellite-derived local-scale risk model satisfactorily captured the seasonal cholera pattern for the Matlab region, and a detailed high-resolution picture of the spatial progression of at-risk areas during outbreak months.

Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.

The association between climatic factors and waterborne infectious outbreaks with a focus on vulnerability in Pakistan: integrative review

Climate change affects the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, yet research on vulnerability to outbreaks remains limited. This integrative review examines how climate variables (temperature and precipitation) relate to human vulnerability factors in Pakistan. By 2060, mean temperatures are projected to rise from 21.68°C (2021) to 30°C, with relatively stable precipitation. The epidemiological investigation in Pakistan identified Diarrhea (119,000 cases/year), Malaria (2.6 million cases/year), and Hepatitis (A and E) as the most prevalent infections. This research highlighted vulnerability factors, including poverty (52% of the population), illiteracy (59% of the population), limited healthcare accessibility (55% of the population), malnutrition (38% of the population), dietary challenges (48% of the population), as well as exposure to water pollution (80% of the population) and air pollution (55% of the population). The findings suggest that the coordinated strategies are vital across health, environmental, meteorological, and social sectors, considering climatic variability patterns and population vulnerability determinants.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and precipitation with infections from five food-borne bacterial pathogens

Studies on climate variables and food pathogens are either pathogen- or region-specific, necessitating a consolidated view on the subject. This study aims to systematically review all studies on the association of ambient temperature and precipitation on the incidence of gastroenteritis and bacteraemia from Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, Vibrio, and Listeria species. PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched up to 9 March 2023. We screened 3,204 articles for eligibility and included 83 studies in the review and three in the meta-analysis. Except for one study on Campylobacter, all showed a positive association between temperature and Salmonella, Shigella, Vibrio sp., and Campylobacter gastroenteritis. Similarly, most of the included studies showed that precipitation was positively associated with these conditions. These positive associations were found regardless of the effect measure chosen. The pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the three studies that included bacteraemia from Campylobacter and Salmonella sp. was 1.05 (95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI): 1.03, 1.06) for extreme temperature and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.19) for extreme precipitation. If current climate trends continue, our findings suggest these pathogens would increase patient morbidity, the need for hospitalization, and prolonged antibiotic courses.

Spatial-temporal analysis of climate and socioeconomic conditions on cholera incidence in Mozambique from 2000 to 2018: an ecological longitudinal retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess both socioeconomic and climatic factors of cholera morbidity in Mozambique considering both spatial and temporal dimensions.

DESIGN

An ecological longitudinal retrospective study using monthly provincial cholera cases from Mozambican Ministry of Health between 2000 and 2018. The cholera cases were linked to socioeconomic data from Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in the period 2000-2018 and climatic data; relative humidity (RH), mean temperature, precipitation and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A negative binomial regression model in a Bayesian framework was used to model cholera incidence while adjusting for the spatiotemporal covariance, lagged effect of environmental factors and the socioeconomic indicators.

SETTING

Eleven provinces in Mozambique.

RESULTS

Over the 19-year period, a total of 153 941 cholera cases were notified to the surveillance system in Mozambique. Risk of cholera increased with higher monthly mean temperatures above 24°C in comparison to the reference mean temperature of 23°C. At mean temperature of 19°C, cholera risk was higher at a lag of 5-6 months. At a shorter lag of 1 month, precipitation of 223.3 mm resulted in an 57% increase in cholera risk (relative risk, RR 1.57 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.31)). Cholera risk was greatest at 3 lag months with monthly NDVI of 0.137 (RR 1.220 (95% CI 1.042 to 1.430)), compared with the reference value of 0.2. At an RH of 54%, cholera RR was increased by 62% (RR 1.620 (95% CI 1.124 to 2.342)) at a lag of 4 months. We found that ownership of radio RR 0.29, (95% CI 0.109 to 0.776) and mobile phones RR 0.262 (95% CI 0.097 to 0.711) were significantly associated with low cholera risk.

CONCLUSION

The derived lagged patterns can provide appropriate lead times in a climate-driven cholera early warning system that could contribute to the prevention and management of outbreaks.

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023

In 2023, cholera affected approximately 1 million people and caused more than 5000 deaths globally, predominantly in low-income and conflict settings. In recent years, the number of new cholera outbreaks has grown rapidly. Further, ongoing cholera outbreaks have been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and poor infrastructure, resulting in prolonged crises. As a result, the demand for treatment and intervention is quickly outpacing existing resource availability. Prior to improved water and sanitation systems, cholera, a disease primarily transmitted via contaminated water sources, also routinely ravaged high-income countries. Crumbling infrastructure and climate change are now putting new locations at risk - even in high-income countries. Thus, understanding the transmission and prevention of cholera is critical. Combating cholera requires multiple interventions, the two most common being behavioral education and water treatment. Two-dose oral cholera vaccination (OCV) is often used as a complement to these interventions. Due to limited supply, countries have recently switched to single-dose vaccines (OCV1). One challenge lies in understanding where to allocate OCV1 in a timely manner, especially in settings lacking well-resourced public health surveillance systems. As cholera occurs and propagates in such locations, timely, accurate, and openly accessible outbreak data are typically inaccessible for disease modeling and subsequent decision-making. In this study, we demonstrated the value of open-access data to rapidly estimate cholera transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Specifically, we obtained non-machine readable (NMR) epidemic curves for recent cholera outbreaks in two countries, Haiti and Cameroon, from figures published in situation and disease outbreak news reports. We used computational digitization techniques to derive weekly counts of cholera cases, resulting in nominal differences when compared against the reported cumulative case counts (i.e., a relative error rate of 5.67% in Haiti and 0.54% in Cameroon). Given these digitized time series, we leveraged EpiEstim-an open-source modeling platform-to derive rapid estimates of time-varying disease transmission via the effective reproduction number (R t ). To compare OCV1 effectiveness in the two considered countries, we additionally used VaxEstim, a recent extension of EpiEstim that facilitates the estimation of vaccine effectiveness via the relation among three inputs: the basic reproduction number (R 0 ),R t , and vaccine coverage. Here, with Haiti and Cameroon as case studies, we demonstrated the first implementation of VaxEstim in low-resource settings. Importantly, we are the first to use VaxEstim with digitized data rather than traditional epidemic surveillance data. In the initial phase of the outbreak, weekly rolling average estimates ofR t were elevated in both countries: 2.60 in Haiti [95% credible interval: 2.42-2.79] and 1.90 in Cameroon [1.14-2.95]. These values are largely consistent with previous estimates ofR 0 in Haiti, where average values have ranged from 1.06 to 3.72, and in Cameroon, where average values have ranged from 1.10 to 3.50. In both Haiti and Cameroon, this initial period of high transmission preceded a longer period during whichR t oscillated around the critical threshold of 1. Our results derived from VaxEstim suggest that Haiti had higher OCV1 effectiveness than Cameroon (75.32% effective [54.00-86.39%] vs. 54.88% [18.94-84.90%]). These estimates of OCV1 effectiveness are generally aligned with those derived from field studies conducted in other countries. Thus, our case study reinforces the validity of VaxEstim as an alternative to costly, time-consuming field studies of OCV1 effectiveness. Indeed, prior work in South Sudan, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported OCV1 effectiveness ranging from approximately 40% to 80%. This work underscores the value of combining NMR sources of outbreak case data with computational techniques and the utility of VaxEstim for rapid, inexpensive estimation of vaccine effectiveness in data-poor outbreak settings.

Amoebae as training grounds for microbial pathogens

Grazing of amoebae on microorganisms represents one of the oldest predator-prey dynamic relationships in nature. It represents a genetic "melting pot" for an ancient and continuous multi-directional inter- and intra-kingdom horizontal gene transfer between amoebae and its preys, intracellular microbial residents, endosymbionts, and giant viruses, which has shaped the evolution, selection, and adaptation of microbes that evade degradation by predatory amoeba. Unicellular phagocytic amoebae are thought to be the ancient ancestors of macrophages with highly conserved eukaryotic processes. Selection and evolution of microbes within amoeba through their evolution to target highly conserved eukaryotic processes have facilitated the expansion of their host range to mammals, causing various infectious diseases. Legionella and environmental Chlamydia harbor an immense number of eukaryotic-like proteins that are involved in ubiquitin-related processes or are tandem repeats-containing proteins involved in protein-protein and protein-chromatin interactions. Some of these eukaryotic-like proteins exhibit novel domain architecture and novel enzymatic functions absent in mammalian cells, such as ubiquitin ligases, likely acquired from amoebae. Mammalian cells and amoebae may respond similarly to microbial factors that target highly conserved eukaryotic processes, but mammalian cells may undergo an accidental response to amoeba-adapted microbial factors. We discuss specific examples of microbes that have evolved to evade amoeba predation, including the bacterial pathogens- Legionella, Chlamydia, Coxiella, Rickettssia, Francisella, Mycobacteria, Salmonella, Bartonella, Rhodococcus, Pseudomonas, Vibrio, Helicobacter, Campylobacter, and Aliarcobacter. We also discuss the fungi Cryptococcus, and Asperigillus, as well as amoebae mimiviruses/giant viruses. We propose that amoeba-microbe interactions will continue to be a major "training ground" for the evolution, selection, adaptation, and emergence of microbial pathogens equipped with unique pathogenic tools to infect mammalian hosts. However, our progress will continue to be highly dependent on additional genomic, biochemical, and cellular data of unicellular eukaryotes.

Dissecting Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) to Assess Risk Factors for Cholera in Shashemene, Oromia Region, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Cholera outbreaks have afflicted Ethiopia, with nearly 100 000 cases and 1030 deaths reported from 2015 to 2023, emphasizing the critical need to understand water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) risk factors.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional household (HH) survey among 870 HHs in Shashemene Town and Shashemene Woreda, alongside extracting retrospective cholera case data from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute database. Relationships between WaSH and sociodemographic/economic-levels of HHs were examined. WaSH status and cholera attack rates (ARs) were described at kebele-level using geospatial mapping, and their association was statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

Access to basic drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities was limited, with 67.5% (95% confidence interval, 64.4-70.6), 73.4% (70.3-76.3), and 30.3% (27.3-33.3) of HHs having access, respectively. Better WaSH practices were associated with urban residence (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7, [95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.7]), higher educational levels (2.7 [1.2-5.8]), and wealth (2.5 [1.6-4.0]). The association between cholera ARs and at least basic WaSH status was not statistically significant (multiple R2 = 0.13; P = .36), although localized effects were suggested for sanitation (Moran I = 0.22; P = .024).

CONCLUSIONS

Addressing gaps in WaSH access and hygiene practices is crucial for reducing cholera risk. Further analyses with meaningful covariates and increased sample sizes are necessary to understand the association between cholera AR and specific WaSH components.

Modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology: A systematic and critical review

Diverse modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology have been developed and used to (1) study its transmission dynamics, (2) predict and manage cholera outbreaks, and (3) assess the impact of various control and mitigation measures. In this study, we carry out a critical and systematic review of various approaches used for modelling the dynamics of cholera. Also, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each modelling approach. A systematic search of articles was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Taylor & Francis. Eligible studies were those concerned with the dynamics of cholera excluding studies focused on models for cholera transmission in animals, socio-economic factors, and genetic & molecular related studies. A total of 476 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria, with about 40% (32%) of the studies carried out in Asia (Africa). About 52%, 21%, and 9%, of the studies, were based on compartmental (e.g., SIRB), statistical (time series and regression), and spatial (spatiotemporal clustering) models, respectively, while the rest of the analysed studies used other modelling approaches such as network, machine learning and artificial intelligence, Bayesian, and agent-based approaches. Cholera modelling studies that incorporate vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen are scarce and a small portion of researchers (3.99%) considers the estimation of key epidemiological parameters. Vaccination only platform was utilized as a control measure in more than half (58%) of the studies. Research productivity in cholera epidemiological modelling studies have increased in recent years, but authors used diverse range of models. Future models should consider incorporating vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen and on the estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the transmission of cholera dynamics.

Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia

ABSTRACT

Climate change, particularly increasing temperature, changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and changes in vector ecology, impacts the transmission of many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Asia is the world's most populous, rapidly evolving and diverse continent, and it is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Climate change intersects with population, sociodemographic and geographical factors, amplifying the public health impact of infectious diseases and potentially widening existing disparities. In this narrative review, we outline the evidence of the impact of climate change on infectious diseases of importance in Asia, including vector-borne diseases, food- and water-borne diseases, antimicrobial resistance and other infectious diseases. We also highlight the imperative need for strategic intersectoral collaboration at the national and global levels and for the health sector to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, including responsibility for its own greenhouse gas emissions.

Plasmonic Fluorescence Sensors in Diagnosis of Infectious Diseases

The increasing demand for rapid, cost-effective, and reliable diagnostic tools in personalized and point-of-care medicine is driving scientists to enhance existing technology platforms and develop new methods for detecting and measuring clinically significant biomarkers. Humanity is confronted with growing risks from emerging and recurring infectious diseases, including the influenza virus, dengue virus (DENV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Ebola virus, tuberculosis, cholera, and, most notably, SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19), among others. Timely diagnosis of infections and effective disease control have always been of paramount importance. Plasmonic-based biosensing holds the potential to address the threat posed by infectious diseases by enabling prompt disease monitoring. In recent years, numerous plasmonic platforms have risen to the challenge of offering on-site strategies to complement traditional diagnostic methods like polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Disease detection can be accomplished through the utilization of diverse plasmonic phenomena, such as propagating surface plasmon resonance (SPR), localized SPR (LSPR), surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS), surface-enhanced fluorescence (SEF), surface-enhanced infrared absorption spectroscopy, and plasmonic fluorescence sensors. This review focuses on diagnostic methods employing plasmonic fluorescence sensors, highlighting their pivotal role in swift disease detection with remarkable sensitivity. It underscores the necessity for continued research to expand the scope and capabilities of plasmonic fluorescence sensors in the field of diagnostics.

How can machine learning predict cholera: insights from experiments and design science for action research

Cholera is a leading cause of mortality in Nigeria. The two most significant predictors of cholera are a lack of access to clean water and poor sanitary conditions. Other factors such as natural disasters, illiteracy, and internal conflicts that drive people to seek sanctuary in refugee camps may contribute to the spread of cholera in Nigeria. The aim of this research is to develop a cholera outbreak risk prediction (CORP) model using machine learning tools and data science. In this study, we developed a CORP model using design science perspectives and machine learning to detect cholera outbreaks in Nigeria. Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) was used for dimensionality reduction, and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was used for data balancing. Outliers were detected using density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) were removed improving the overall performance of the model, and the extreme-gradient boost algorithm was used for prediction. The findings revealed that the CORP model outcomes resulted in the best accuracy of 99.62%, Matthews's correlation coefficient of 0.976, and area under the curve of 99.2%, which were improved compared with the previous findings. The developed model can be helpful to healthcare providers in predicting possible cholera outbreaks.

Impacts of climate change on occupational health indicators in the three climatic regions of Iran

Climate change has increased the exposure risk of workers to occupational health risk factors and diseases. This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the occupational health indicators at the workplaces in Iran. This study was conducted during 2021 in three climatic regions of Iran. Required data was collected from Health Deputies of Medical Universities and Iran Meteorological Organization. Stepwise linear regression model used for data analysis and predictions were done based on three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 during the period of 2021-2100. This indicated 2.6 and 2.9 times higher percentage of workers who were exposed to heat stress and Ultra Violet (UV) radiation, respectively, in the provinces understudy. This study suggests a holistic approach to address potential impacts of climate change on workers' health and safety that would benefit in making decisions on climate-related planning and developing the adaptation strategies at workplaces.

Climate-dependent effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 mitigation

Environmental factors have a significant impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. Existing results show that the novel coronavirus can persist outside the host. We propose a susceptible-exposed-presymptomatic-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered-susceptible (SEPIARS) model with a vaccination compartment and indirect incidence to explore the effect of environmental conditions, temperature and humidity, on the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using climate data and daily confirmed cases data in two Canadian cities with different atmospheric conditions, we evaluate the mortality rates of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and further estimate the transmission rates by the inverse method, respectively. The numerical results show that high temperature or humidity can be helpful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 during the warm summer months. Our findings verify that nonpharmaceutical interventions are less effective if the virus can persist for a long time on surfaces. Based on climate data, we can forecast the transmission rate and the infection cases up to four weeks in the future by a generalized boosting machine learning model.

Mitigating the effects of climate change on human health with vaccines and vaccinations

Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to humanity and will be the ultimate challenge of the 21st century. As a public health consequence, the World Health Organization estimates an additional 250,000 deaths annually by 2030, with resource-poor countries being predominantly affected. Although climate change's direct and indirect consequences on human health are manifold and far from fully explored, a growing body of evidence demonstrates its potential to exacerbate the frequency and spread of transmissible infectious diseases. Effective, high-impact mitigation measures are critical in combating this global crisis. While vaccines and vaccination are among the most cost-effective public health interventions, they have yet to be established as a major strategy in climate change-related health effect mitigation. In this narrative review, we synthesize the available evidence on the effect of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases. This review examines the direct effect of climate change on water-related diseases such as cholera and other enteropathogens, helminthic infections and leptospirosis. It also explores the effects of rising temperatures on vector-borne diseases like dengue, chikungunya, and malaria, as well as the impact of temperature and humidity on airborne diseases like influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infection. Recent advances in global vaccine development facilitate the use of vaccines and vaccination as a mitigation strategy in the agenda against climate change consequences. A focused evaluation of vaccine research and development, funding, and distribution related to climate change is required.

Unveiling Rare Pathogens and Antibiotic Resistance in Tanzanian Cholera Outbreak Waters

The emergence of antibiotic resistance is a global health concern. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of its spread is crucial for implementing evidence-based strategies to tackle resistance in the context of the One Health approach. In developing countries where sanitation systems and access to clean and safe water are still major challenges, contamination may introduce bacteria and bacteriophages harboring antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) into the environment. This contamination can increase the risk of exposure and community transmission of ARGs and infectious pathogens. However, there is a paucity of information on the mechanisms of bacteriophage-mediated spread of ARGs and patterns through the environment. Here, we deploy Droplet Digital PCR (ddPCR) and metagenomics approaches to analyze the abundance of ARGs and bacterial pathogens disseminated through clean and wastewater systems. We detected a relatively less-studied and rare human zoonotic pathogen, Vibrio metschnikovii, known to spread through fecal--oral contamination, similarly to V. cholerae. Several antibiotic resistance genes were identified in both bacterial and bacteriophage fractions from water sources. Using metagenomics, we detected several resistance genes related to tetracyclines and beta-lactams in all the samples. Environmental samples from outlet wastewater had a high diversity of ARGs and contained high levels of blaOXA-48. Other identified resistance profiles included tetA, tetM, and blaCTX-M9. Specifically, we demonstrated that blaCTX-M1 is enriched in the bacteriophage fraction from wastewater. In general, however, the bacterial community has a significantly higher abundance of resistance genes compared to the bacteriophage population. In conclusion, the study highlights the need to implement environmental monitoring of clean and wastewater to inform the risk of infectious disease outbreaks and the spread of antibiotic resistance in the context of One Health.

Seasonality of cholera in Kolkata and the influence of climate

BACKGROUND

Cholera in Kolkata remains endemic and the Indian city is burdened with a high number of annual cases. Climate change is widely considered to exacerbate cholera, however the precise relationship between climate and cholera is highly heterogeneous in space and considerable variation can be observed even within the Indian subcontinent. To date, relatively few studies have been conducted regarding the influence of climate on cholera in Kolkata.

METHODS

We considered 21 years of confirmed cholera cases from the Infectious Disease Hospital in Kolkata during the period of 1999-2019. We used Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) to extract the non-linear relationship between cholera and different climatic factors; temperature, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Peak associated lag times were identified using cross-correlation lag analysis.

RESULTS

Our findings revealed a bi-annual pattern of cholera cases with two peaks coinciding with the increase in temperature in summer and the onset of monsoon rains. Variables selected as explanatory variables in the GAM model were temperature and rainfall. Temperature was the only significant factor associated with summer cholera (mean temperature of 30.3 °C associated with RR of 3.8) while rainfall was found to be the main driver of monsoon cholera (550 mm total monthly rainfall associated with RR of 3.38). Lag time analysis revealed that the association between temperature and cholera cases in the summer had a longer peak lag time compared to that between rainfall and cholera during the monsoon. We propose several mechanisms by which these relationships are mediated.

CONCLUSIONS

Kolkata exhibits a dual-peak phenomenon with independent mediating factors. We suggest that the summer peak is due to increased bacterial concentration in urban water bodies, while the monsoon peak is driven by contaminated flood waters. Our results underscore the potential utility of preventative strategies tailored to these seasonal and climatic patterns, including efforts to reduce direct contact with urban water bodies in summer and to protect residents from flood waters during monsoon.

The climate crisis and healthcare: What do infection prevention and stewardship professionals need to know?

The climate crisis calls for urgent action from every level of the US healthcare sector, starting with an acknowledgment of our own outsized contribution to greenhouse gas emissions (at least 8.5% of carbon emissions). As the climate continues to become warmer and wetter, the medical establishment must deal with increasing rates of pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases, heat-related illness, and emerging infectious diseases among many other health harms. Additionally, extreme weather events are causing healthcare delivery breakdown due to physical infrastructure damage, slowed supply chains, and workforce burden. Pathways for healthcare systems to meet these challenges are emerging. They entail significant measures to mitigate our carbon footprint, embrace shared and equity-driven governance, develop new metrics of accountability, and build more resilience into our care delivery processes. We call upon SHEA to play a unique leadership role in the fight for sustainable, equitable, and efficient health care in a rapidly changing climate that immediately threatens human well-being.

Health effects of climate change in Africa: A call for an improved implementation of prevention measures

The world's climate, particularly in Africa, has changed substantially during the past few decades, contributed by several human activities. Africa is one of the continents that is most vulnerable to climate change globally. Since the beginning of 2022, extreme weather events in Africa have affected about 19 million people and killed at least 4,000 individuals. Cyclones, floods, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and famine were among the severe weather occurrences. Natural disasters and extreme weather events brought on by climate change may compromise access to clean water, sanitation systems, and healthcare facilities, making people more vulnerable to a number of illnesses. Floods and drought can lead to both communicable and non-communicable diseases. The African population is more likely to experience more mental health disorders than before because of natural disasters, which result in the loss of property and sometimes loss of lives more frequently. We, therefore, call for an improved implementation of strategies to prevent the health effects of climate change so that the health of the people in Africa can be maintained.

Detection and characterization of the most common foodborne pathogens by using multiplex PCR procedure

Food Microbial contamination is one of the most serious problems. A large percentage of food-borne illnesses are caused by food-borne pathogens, and diarrheal agents comprise more than half of the overall prevalence of food-borne illnesses in the globe, and more commonly in developing countries. This study aimed to identify the most-common foodborne organisms from foods in Khartoum state by PCR. A total of 207 food samples (raw milk, fresh cheese, yogurt, fish, sausage, mortadella, and eggs) were collected. DNA was extracted from food samples by guanidine chloride protocol, and then species-specific primers were used to identify Escherichia coli O157: H7, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Vibrio cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus, and Staphylococcus aureus. Out of 207 samples, five (2.41%) were positive for L. monocytogenes, one (0.48%) was positive for S. aureus, and one (0.48%) was positive for both Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. From 91 fresh cheese samples, 2 (2.19%) were positive for L. monocytogenes, and one (1.1%) sample was positive for two different foodborne pathogens (V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus). Out of 43 Cow's milk samples, three (7%) samples were positive for L. monocytogenes, and out of 4 sausage samples, one (25 %) was positive for S. aureus. Our study revealed the presence of L. monocytogenes and V. cholera in raw milk and fresh cheese samples. Their presence is considered a potential problem and needs intensive hygiene efforts and standard safety measures before, during, and after food processing operations.

A simple mechanism for integration of quorum sensing and cAMP signalling in V. cholerae

Many bacteria use quorum sensing to control changes in lifestyle. The process is regulated by microbially derived "autoinducer" signalling molecules, that accumulate in the local environment. Individual cells sense autoinducer abundance, to infer population density, and alter their behaviour accordingly. In Vibrio cholerae , quorum sensing signals are transduced by phosphorelay to the transcription factor LuxO. Unphosphorylated LuxO permits expression of HapR, which alters global gene expression patterns. In this work, we have mapped the genome-wide distribution of LuxO and HapR in V. cholerae . Whilst LuxO has a small regulon, HapR targets 32 loci. Many HapR targets coincide with sites for the cAMP receptor protein (CRP) that regulates the transcriptional response to carbon starvation. This overlap, also evident in other Vibrio species, results from similarities in the DNA sequence bound by each factor. At shared sites, HapR and CRP simultaneously contact the double helix and binding is stabilised by direct interaction of the two factors. Importantly, this involves a CRP surface that usually contacts RNA polymerase to stimulate transcription. As a result, HapR can block transcription activation by CRP. Thus, by interacting at shared sites, HapR and CRP integrate information from quorum sensing and cAMP signalling to control gene expression. This likely allows V. cholerae to regulate subsets of genes during the transition between aquatic environments and the human host.

Climate change and the displaced person: how vectors and climate are changing the landscape of infectious diseases among displaced and migrant populations

BACKGROUND

As the climate crisis grows, so does the global burden of displacement. Displacement, whether a direct or indirect consequence of natural disaster, can lead to dire health sequelae. Skin health is no exception to this, with dermatologic disease being a leading concern reported by those who care for displaced persons. Health professionals who provide dermatologic care for displaced persons benefit from understanding how climate change impacts the global profile of infectious agents.

METHODS

This review was performed using PubMed and Google Scholar. Search terms included climate change, displaced person, internally displaced person, and refugee, as well as searches of infectious disease dermatology and the specific diseases of interest. Case reports, case series, reviews, and original research articles were included in this review. Non-English studies were not included.

RESULTS

In this manuscript several key infectious agents were identified, and we discuss the skin manifestations and impact of climate change on cutaneous leishmaniasis, dengue, chikungunya, zika, malaria, pediculosis, cutaneous larva migrans, cholera, and varicella zoster.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change plays a significant role in the challenges faced by displaced persons, including their skin health. Among the many consequences of climate change is its altering of the ecological profile of infectious agents and vectors that impact displaced persons. Being familiar with this impact can improve dermatologic care for this vulnerable population.

A Molecular and Epidemiological Study of Cholera Outbreak in Sulaymaniyah Province, Iraq, in 2022

Cholera is a disease caused by a Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio cholerae and is among the significant threats to global public health. The disease is mainly spread in the hot months of the year; low sanitation and lack of clean water are the major causes of the disease. In this study, we conducted a molecular and epidemiological study of the recent outbreak in the city of Sulaymaniyah in Iraq. Based on the bacteriological, serological, and molecular identification of the bacterium, it was shown that V. cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa caused the disease. Additionally, the number of positive cholera cases were higher in June compared to July (391 positive cases in June and 23 in July). Moreover, the majority (> 60%) of the cholera cases were recorded among 20-44-year-old people in both months; however, there was no significant difference in the patient genders diagnosed every month. Overall, this is the first report on the recent cholera outbreak in the city of Sulaimaniyah in Iraq.

Geospatial techniques for monitoring and mitigating climate change and its effects on human health

This article begins by briefly examining the multitude of ways in which climate and climate change affect human health and wellbeing. It then proceeds to present a quick overview of how geospatial data, methods and tools are playing key roles in the measurement, analysis and modelling of climate change and its effects on human health. Geospatial techniques are proving indispensable for making more accurate assessments and estimates, predicting future trends more reliably, and devising more optimised climate change adaptation and mitigation plans.

Mathematical Models for Cholera Dynamics-A Review

Cholera remains a significant public health burden in many countries and regions of the world, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms associated with its transmission, spread, and control. Mathematical modeling offers a valuable research tool to investigate cholera dynamics and explore effective intervention strategies. In this article, we provide a review of the current state in the modeling studies of cholera. Starting from an introduction of basic cholera transmission models and their applications, we survey model extensions in several directions that include spatial and temporal heterogeneities, effects of disease control, impacts of human behavior, and multi-scale infection dynamics. We discuss some challenges and opportunities for future modeling efforts on cholera dynamics, and emphasize the importance of collaborations between different modeling groups and different disciplines in advancing this research area.

The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of Iran

Malaria is a vector-borne disease, likely to be affected by climate change. In this study, general circulation model (GCM)-based scenarios were used for projecting future climate patterns and malaria incidence by artificial neural networks (ANN) in Zahedan district, Iran. Daily malaria incidence data of Zahedan district from 2000 to 2019 were inquired. The gamma test was used to select the appropriate combination of parameters for nonlinear modeling. The future climate pattern projections were obtained from HadGEM2-ES. The output was downscaled using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission for 2021-2060 was simulated by ANN. The designed model indicated that the future climate in Zahedan district will be warmer, more humid, and with more precipitation. Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria by ANN showed the number of malaria cases in Zahedan under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5). It should be noted that due to the lack of daily malaria data before 2013, monthly data from 2000 were used only for initial analysis; and in preprocessing and simulation analyses, the daily malaria data from 2013 to 2019 were used. Therefore, if proper interventions are not implemented, malaria will continue to be a health issue in this region.

Mapping climate change's impact on cholera infection risk in Bangladesh

Several studies have investigated how Vibrio cholerae infection risk changes with increased rainfall, temperature, and water pH levels for coastal Bangladesh, which experiences seasonal surges in cholera infections associated with heavy rainfall events. While coastal environmental conditions are understood to influence V. cholerae propagation within brackish waters and transmission to and within human populations, it remains unknown how changing climate regimes impact the risk for cholera infection throughout Bangladesh. To address this, we developed a random forest species distribution model to predict the occurrence probability of cholera incidence within Bangladesh for 2015 and 2050. We developed a random forest model trained on cholera incidence data and spatial environmental raster data to be predicted to environmental data for the year of training (2015) and 2050. From our model's predictions, we generated risk maps for cholera occurrence for 2015 and 2050. Our best-fitting model predicted cholera occurrence given elevation and distance to water. Generally, we find that regions within every district in Bangladesh experience an increase in infection risk from 2015 to 2050. We also find that although cells of high risk cluster along the coastline predominantly in 2015, by 2050 high-risk areas expand from the coast inland, conglomerating around surface waters across Bangladesh, reaching all but the northwestern-most district. Mapping the geographic distribution of cholera infections given projected environmental conditions provides a valuable tool for guiding proactive public health policy tailored to areas most at risk of future disease outbreaks.

The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review

Background: Climate change poses a real challenge and has contributed to causing the emergence and re-emergence of many communicable diseases of public health importance. Here, we reviewed scientific studies on the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of dengue, malaria, cholera, and leptospirosis, and synthesized the key findings on communicable disease projection in the event of global warming. Method: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow checklist. Four databases (Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, EBSCOhost) were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2020. The eligible articles were evaluated using a modified scale of a checklist designed for assessing the quality of ecological studies. Results: A total of 38 studies were included in the review. Precipitation and temperature were most frequently associated with the selected climate-sensitive communicable diseases. A climate change scenario simulation projected that dengue, malaria, and cholera incidence would increase based on regional climate responses. Conclusion: Precipitation and temperature are important meteorological factors that influence the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases. Future studies need to consider more determinants affecting precipitation and temperature fluctuations for better simulation and prediction of the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases.

Vibrio cholerae Infection Induces Strain-Specific Modulation of the Zebrafish Intestinal Microbiome

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) is an attractive model organism to use for an array of scientific studies, including host-microbe interactions. Zebrafish contain a core (i.e., consistently detected) intestinal microbiome consisting primarily of Proteobacteria. Furthermore, this core intestinal microbiome is plastic and can be significantly altered due to external factors. Zebrafish are particularly useful for the study of aquatic microbes that can colonize vertebrate hosts, including Vibrio cholerae. As an intestinal pathogen, V. cholerae must colonize the intestine of an exposed host for pathogenicity to occur. Members of the resident intestinal microbial community likely must be reduced or eliminated by V. cholerae for colonization, and subsequent disease, to occur. Many studies have explored a variety of aspects of the pathogenic effects of V. cholerae on zebrafish and other model organisms but few have researched how a V. cholerae infection changes the resident intestinal microbiome. In this study, 16S rRNA gene sequencing was used to examine how five genetically diverse V. cholerae strains alter the intestinal microbiome following an infection. We found that V. cholerae colonization induced significant changes in the zebrafish intestinal microbiome. Notably, changes in the microbial profile were significantly different from each other, based on the particular strain of V. cholerae used to infect zebrafish hosts. We conclude that V. cholerae significantly modulates the zebrafish intestinal microbiota to enable colonization and that specific microbes that are targeted depend on the V. cholerae genotype.

Pharmacophore-Based Screening & Modification of Amiloride Analogs for targeting the NhaP-type Cation-Proton Antiporter in Vibrio cholerae

Structural and mutational analysis of Vc-NhaP2 identified a putative cation binding pocket formed by antiparallel extended regions of two transmembrane segments (TMSs V/XII) along with TMS VI. Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations suggested that the flexibility of TMS-V/XII is crucial for the intra-molecular conformational events in Vc-NhaP2. In this study, we developed some putative Vc-NhaP2 inhibitors from Amiloride analogs (AAs). Molecular docking of the modified AAs revealed promising binding. The four selected drugs potentially interacted with functionally important amino acid residues located on the cytoplasmic side of TMS VI, the extended chain region of TMS V and TMS XII and the loop region between TMSs VIIII and IX. Molecular dynamics simulations revealed that binding of the selected drugs can potentially destabilize the Vc-NhaP2 and alters the flexibility of the functionally important TMS VI. The work presents the utility of in silico approaches for the rational identification of potential targets and drugs that could target NhaP2 cation proton antiporter to control Vibrio cholerae. The goal is to identify potential drugs that can be validated in future experiments.

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities.

FINDINGS

We estimated that in the period 2080-95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441-7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760-100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific.

INTERPRETATION

Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness.

Cholera in travellers: improving vaccination guidance in Europe

BACKGROUND

Cholera is endemic in ~50 countries worldwide and remains a disease associated with poverty, causing illness and death in the poorest and most vulnerable people. In travellers, cholera is considered a low-incidence disease, but the true impact on travellers is difficult to assess. Cholera vaccination may improve safety for certain European travellers at risk. Effective vaccines are available; however, vaccination recommendations in Europe vary considerably between countries.

METHODS

In this review, a comparison of cholera vaccination recommendations from 29 advice reference bodies across key European countries (United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Norway, France and Denmark) is presented. The differences in perceived cholera risk are highlighted, and a comparison with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations is included.

RESULTS

In general terms, the recommendations from European organizations are ambiguous and differ widely. This contrasts with the situation in the United States, where the CDC publishes a consistent set of guidelines.

CONCLUSION

With the ease of intra-European travel, it would seem sensible to harmonize the recommendations for cholera vaccination and risk perception across Europe, providing pre-travel health advisers with a trusted source of information that allows them to provide consistent recommendations.

A review on prediction of seasonal diseases based on climate change using big data

Big Data occupies an important place in the prediction of diseases that happen due to climate change. In each aspect of human life, the weather plays a major role. It directly affects human society or human life. Because of an extreme weather condition creates various diseases among humans. Such as Vector-borne diseases (Malaria, dengue and chikungunya fever), Water-borne diseases (Cholera, Typhoid), Air-borne diseases (Chicken Pox, influenza and small Pox) and Food-borne diseases (Diarrhoea and Salmonella) etc. This survey presents an overview for a climate variable such as extreme temperature, precipitation, humidity and how unexpected climate conditions can affect the disease and living organism.

Climate and climate-sensitive diseases in semi-arid regions: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

We aim to describe the relationships between climate variables and climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) in semi-arid regions, highlighting the different main groups of CSDs and their climate patterns.

METHODS

This systematic review considered Medline, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science. The data collection period was August and September 2019 and included studies published between 2008 and 2019. This study followed a protocol based on the PRISMA statement. Data analysis was done in a qualitative way.

RESULTS

The most of works were from Africa, Asia and Iran (71%), where temperature was the main climatic variable. Although the studies provide climatic conditions that are more favorable for the incidence of vector-borne and respiratory diseases, the influence of seasonal patterns on the onset, development and end of CSDs is still poorly understood, especially for gastrointestinal disorders. Moreover, little is known about the impact of droughts on CSDs.

CONCLUSIONS

This review summarized the state of art of the relationship between climate and CSDs in semi-arid regions. Moreover, a research agenda was provided, which is fundamental for health policy development, priority setting and public health management.

COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate

Purpose: The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and rapidly spread across the globe. Since most respiratory viruses are known to show a seasonal pattern of infection, it has been hypothesised that SARS-CoV-2 may be seasonally dependent as well. The present study looks at a possible effect of atmospheric temperature, which is one of the suspected factors influencing seasonality, on the evolution of the pandemic. Basic procedures: Since confirming a seasonal pattern would take several more months of observation, we conducted an innovative day-to-day micro-correlation analysis of nine outbreak locations, across four continents and both hemispheres, in order to examine a possible relationship between atmospheric temperature (used as a proxy for seasonality) and outbreak progression. Main findings: There was a negative correlation between atmospheric temperature variations and daily new cases growth rates, in all nine outbreaks, with a median lag of 10 days. Principal conclusions: The results presented here suggest that high temperatures might dampen SARS-CoV-2 propagation, while lower temperatures might increase its transmission. Our hypothesis is that this could support a potential effect of atmospheric temperature on coronavirus disease progression, and potentially a seasonal pattern for this virus, with a peak in the cold season and rarer occurrences in the summer. This could guide government policy in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres for the months to come.

The Impact of Climate Change on Cholera: A Review on the Global Status and Future Challenges

Water ecosystems can be rather sensitive to evolving or sudden changes in weather parameters. These changes can result in alterations in the natural habitat of pathogens, vectors, and human hosts, as well as in the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of infectious agents. However, the interaction between climate change and infectious disease is rather complicated and not deeply understood. In this narrative review, we discuss climate-driven changes in the epidemiology of Vibrio species-associated diseases with an emphasis on cholera. Changes in environmental parameters do shape the epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks of cholera cause significant disease burden, especially in developing countries. Improved sanitation systems, access to clean water, educational strategies, and vaccination campaigns can help control vibriosis. In addition, real-time assessment of climatic parameters with remote-sensing technologies in combination with robust surveillance systems could help detect environmental changes in high-risk areas and result in early public health interventions that can mitigate potential outbreaks.