lillies: An R package for the estimation of excess Life Years Lost among patients with a given disease or condition

Life expectancy associated with specific mental disorders and the contribution of causes of death: a population-based study in the region of Catalonia

There is strong evidence that people with mental disorders have a premature mortality, with physical diseases, as well as suicide, accounting for it in large part. However, there is a lack of studies focused on common mental disorders in Southern Europe. This study aims to calculate the reduction in life expectancy for different mental disorders according to all-cause mortality and for specific causes of death using national registers from Catalonia (Spain). This population register-based study includes clinical information on all adults over 18 years of age using the Catalan public healthcare system from January 2005 to December 2016 (355,540 females and 182,529 males with mental disorders). Mental disorders were classified into eleven categories, and causes of death were grouped as natural and unnatural and then further divided into nine groups. For each disorder, the life-years lost were estimated for all-cause mortality and for each specific cause of death in males and females. All mental disorders showed a shorter remaining life expectancy after diagnosis than the reference population of the same age. The disorders associated with the largest reduction in life expectancy were alcohol and drug dependence and abuse, and schizophrenia. Natural causes and, to a lesser extent, suicide, were the predominant contributors to excess mortality for all types of mental disorders. Our findings suggest that mental disorders are associated with premature mortality in Catalonia. Furthermore, natural causes are the primary contributors to premature mortality, indicating the need for better management of medical conditions in this population.

Time trends in life expectancy of people with severe mental illness in Scotland, 2000-2019: population-based study

BACKGROUND

People with severe mental illness (SMI) have a higher risk of premature mortality than the general population.

AIMS

To investigate whether the life expectancy gap for people with SMI is widening, by determining time trends in excess life-years lost.

METHOD

This population-based study included people with SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression) alive on 1 January 2000. We ascertained SMI from psychiatric hospital admission records (1981-2019), and deaths via linkage to the national death register (2000-2019). We used the Life Years Lost (LYL) method to estimate LYL by SMI and sex, compared LYL to the Scottish population and assessed trends over 18 3-year rolling periods.

RESULTS

We included 28 797 people with schizophrenia, 16 657 with bipolar disorder and 72 504 with major depression. Between 2000 and 2019, life expectancy increased in the Scottish population but the gap widened for people with schizophrenia. For 2000-2002, men and women with schizophrenia lost an excess 9.4 (95% CI 8.5-10.3) and 8.2 (95% CI 7.4-9.0) life-years, respectively, compared with the general population. In 2017-2019, this increased to 11.8 (95% CI 10.9-12.7) and 11.1 (95% CI 10.0-12.1). The life expectancy gap was lower for bipolar disorder and depression and unchanged over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The life expectancy gap in people with SMI persisted or widened from 2000 to 2019. Addressing this entrenched disparity requires equitable social, economic and health policies, healthcare re-structure and improved resourcing, and investment in interventions for primary and secondary prevention of SMI and associated comorbidities.

Average lifespan variation among people with mental disorders in Denmark: a nationwide, register-based cohort study

AIMS

Mortality associated with mental disorders has been estimated using metrics such as mortality rate ratios and life expectancy. However, the variation around the average life expectancy has never been quantified. The main aim of this study was to measure life disparity for people with mental disorders as a measure of inequality at the time of death.

METHODS

Using data from Danish registries, average life disparity was introduced and calculated to measure the lifespan variation associated with major types of mental disorders. Average life expectancy is also reported for completeness.

RESULTS

Compared with the general population, people with mental disorders not only had shorter average life expectancy, but experienced larger average life disparity. For those diagnosed with a mental disorder, average life expectancy increased between 1995 and 2021; however, average life disparity declined in women only, and did not change for men. In addition, the differences in both metrics between those with mental disorders and the general population were largest for substance use disorders and schizophrenia spectrum disorders. For these disorders, the differences even increased during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates for individuals with mental disorders have been declining in recent decades in Denmark; however, the increase in the average life disparity emphasizes the increasing heterogeneity and inequality in lifespans within this group, which requires measures to promote a longer and more equal life for those with mental disorders.

Excess mortality and life-years lost in people diagnosed with depression: A 20-year population-based cohort study of 126,573 depressed individuals followed for 1,139,073 persons-years

Depression is associated with premature mortality, but evidence is mainly derived from Western countries. Very limited research has evaluated shortened lifespan in depression using life-years-lost (LYLs), a recently developed mortality metric taking into account the illness onset for life expectancy estimation. Temporal trends of differential mortality gap are understudied. This population-based cohort study, which utilized a territory-wide medical-record database of public inpatient and outpatient healthcare services in Hong Kong, evaluated the extent of premature mortality in 126,573 individuals with depression (persons-years=1,139,073) between January 2002 and December 2021 regarding the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and excess LYLs. Trends in annual SMRs over 20 years were assessed by joinpoint analyses. The results showed that individuals with depression exhibited significantly higher all-cause (SMR=1.84 [95% CI=1.82-1.88]), natural-cause (1.69 [1.66-1.72]), and unnatural-cause (5.24 [4.97-5.51]) mortality rates than the general population. Suicide-specific SMR was markedly elevated (7.92 [7.47-8.38]), particularly in the 15-34 year-olds (12.75 [10.87-14.79]). Respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cancers accounted for the majority of deaths. Excess LYLs extended to men (5.67 years, 95% CI = 5.45-5.90) and women (4.06 years, 95% CI = 3.89-4.23). Overall and natural-cause mortality rates improved over time, but unnatural-cause and suicide-related mortality gaps persisted. Taken together, this study indicates that depression is associated with increased premature mortality and reduced lifespan in a predominantly Chinese population, mainly attributed to natural causes. Relative suicide-specific mortality is substantially elevated, especially among young people. The pronounced mortality gap underscores an urgent need for effective interventions targeting improved physical health and suicide risk reduction in individuals with depression.

The effect between metabolic syndrome and life expectancy after cancer diagnosis: Catalan cohort study

This study examines remaining life expectancy (RLE) after a cancer diagnosis, focusing on age, sex, cancer type, and metabolic syndrome (MS) components, using data from the SIDIAP database in Catalonia (2006-2017). RLE was analyzed for 13 cancer types, stratified by sex and MS components. The cohort study includes 183,364 individuals followed from diagnosis until death, transfer, or study end (December 2017). RLE at age 68 (median diagnosis age) was calculated based on MS components (0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3). Men aged 68 with 0 MS components had an RLE of 13.2 years, compared to 8.9 years for those with ≥ 3 MS. Women had an RLE of 15.9 years with 0 MS components versus 11.4 years with ≥ 3 MS. RLE varied by cancer type, with the highest RLE in men seen in prostate cancer and in women in non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The lowest RLE for both sexes was in pancreatic cancer. The largest differences between 0 and ≥ 3 MS components were observed in non-Hodgkin lymphoma and the smallest in pancreatic cancer. Increased MS components were associated with reduced RLE in at least 8 cancer types for men and 9 for women. Prevention strategies targeting MS components could increase RLE in cancer patients.

Nationwide burden of sudden cardiac death among patients with a psychiatric disorder

BACKGROUND

Patients with psychiatric disorders have increased all-cause mortality compared with the general population. Previous research has shown that there is a fourfold increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among the young.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the incidence of SCD in patients with psychiatric disorders aged 18-90 years in the Danish population by systematically reviewing all deaths in 1 year.

METHODS

We examined all deaths in Denmark among residents aged 18-90 years in 2010 by reviewing death certificates and autopsy reports. All deaths were categorised as non-SCD or SCD based on the available information. Psychiatric disorder was defined according to International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision criteria or by redemption of a prescription for psychotropic medication within 1 year.

RESULTS

Of 4.3 million residents in 2010, we observed 45 703 deaths, of which 6002 were due to SCD. Overall, the incidence rate ratio of SCD was 1.79-6.45 times higher among patients with psychiatric disorders than in the general population and was age dependent (p<0.001 across all age groups). When adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities, psychiatric disorders were independently associated with SCD, with a HR of 2.31 (2.19 to 2.43, p<0.001), and HR was highest among patients with schizophrenic disorders, with a HR of 4.51 (3.95 to 5.16, p <0.001). Furthermore, 18-year-old patients with a psychiatric disorder had an expected 10-year excess loss of life. Patients aged 18-40 with a psychiatric disorder had 13% of excess life years lost caused by SCD.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the rate of SCD in patients with psychiatric disorders is higher across all age groups than in the general population. Having a psychiatric disorder is independently associated with SCD. Patients with schizophrenic disease had the highest rates of SCD. Life expectancy for an 18-year old with a psychiatric disorder is estimated to be 10 years shorter in comparison with those without this disorder.

Contribution of severe mental disorders to fatally harmful effects of physical disorders: national cohort study

BACKGROUND

It remains unknown whether severe mental disorders contribute to fatally harmful effects of physical illness.

AIMS

To investigate the risk of all-cause death and loss of life-years following the onset of a wide range of physical health conditions in people with severe mental disorders compared with matched counterparts who had only these physical health conditions, and to assess whether these associations can be fully explained by this patient group having more clinically recorded physical illness.

METHOD

Using Czech national in-patient register data, we identified individuals with 28 physical health conditions recorded between 1999 and 2017, separately for each condition. In these people, we identified individuals who had severe mental disorders recorded before the physical health condition and exactly matched them with up to five counterparts who had no recorded prior severe mental disorders. We estimated the risk of all-cause death and lost life-years following each of the physical health conditions in people with pre-existing severe mental disorders compared with matched counterparts without severe mental disorders.

RESULTS

People with severe mental disorders had an elevated risk of all-cause death following the onset of 7 out of 9 broadly defined and 14 out of 19 specific physical health conditions. People with severe mental disorders lost additional life-years following the onset of 8 out 9 broadly defined and 13 out of 19 specific physical health conditions. The vast majority of results remained robust after considering the potentially confounding role of somatic multimorbidity and other clinical and sociodemographic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

A wide range of physical illnesses are more likely to result in all-cause death in people with pre-existing severe mental disorders. This premature mortality cannot be fully explained by having more clinically recorded physical illness, suggesting that physical disorders are more likely to be fatally harmful in this patient group.

Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in Bulgaria in the New Millennium: Identification of Directions for Improvement in Management and Outcomes Reporting

Background: In the last two decades, tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and advances in molecular diagnostics have revolutionized management and long-term clinical outcomes in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Real-world data from different countries allow for the identification of country-specific issues in the clinical management and development of specific plans for improvement. Here, we aimed to analyze the trend in overall survival in Bulgarian CML patients since 2000. Methods: We retrieved publicly available Bulgarian CML data from several sources such as the Bulgarian National Cancer Registry, Bulgarian National Statistical Institute, and National Health Insurance Fund since 2000. We used the retrieved data of a total of 1513 Bulgarian CML patients to describe the trends in overall survival (OS), conditional overall survival, life expectancy, and life years lost over five time periods. We also described the trends in healthcare expenditures for TKIs and CML patients’ coverage with TKIs since 2014. Results: In both uni- and multivariate models, we found a constant increase in OS over the three 5-year periods until 2014. The period 2015–2019 was not associated with an additional increase in OS. Identical dynamics in the improvement in life expectancy (LE) and in life years lost (LYLs) was observed. Additionally, conditional 5-year survival did not improve during 2015–2019 in comparison to 2010–2014. Population-level data did not show consistent changes in the documented number of deaths due to CML since 2013. The period after 2013 is marked by a constant increase in the annual expenditures for TKIs, reaching to about 2.0 EUR/capita. The number of patients who received at least one TKI also increased during that period. Conclusions: After the initial significant improvement in the clinical outcomes for Bulgarian CML patients until 2014, subsequent periods did not bring further benefit in spite of the improved coverage with second- and third-line TKIs. Multiple factors may contribute to these suboptimal outcomes. Therefore, one can propose several additional measures at the country level, which could lead to additional improvement in the OS of Bulgarian CML patients.

Atrial fibrillation: age at diagnosis, incident cardiovascular events, and mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risks of cardiovascular diseases and mortality, but risks according to age at diagnosis have not been reported. This study investigated age-specific risks of outcomes among patients with AF and the background population.

METHODS

This nationwide population-based cohort study included patients with AF and controls without outcomes by the application of exposure density matching on the basis of sex, year of birth, and index date. The absolute risks and hazard rates were stratified by age groups and assessed using competing risk survival analyses and Cox regression models, respectively. The expected differences in residual life years among participants were estimated.

RESULTS

The study included 216 579 AF patients from year 2000 to 2020 and 866 316 controls. The mean follow-up time was 7.9 years. Comparing AF patients with matched controls, the hazard ratios among individuals ≤50 years was 8.90 [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.17-11.0] for cardiomyopathy, 8.64 (95% CI, 7.74-9.64) for heart failure, 2.18 (95% CI, 1.89-2.52) for ischaemic stroke, and 2.74 (95% CI, 2.53-2.96) for mortality. The expected average loss of life years among individuals ≤50 years was 9.2 years (95% CI, 9.0-9.3) years. The estimates decreased with older age.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings show that earlier diagnosis of AF is associated with a higher hazard ratio of subsequent myocardial disease and shorter life expectancy. Further studies are needed to determine causality and whether AF could be used as a risk marker among particularly younger patients.

The Lifespan Disparity Dataset: An open repository on inequality and polarization in length of life (1950-2021)

Monitoring health is key for identifying priorities in public health planning and improving healthcare services. Life expectancy has conventionally been regarded as a valuable indicator to compare the health status of different populations. However, this measure is simply the mean of the distribution of the length of life and, as such, neglects individual disparities in health outcomes. In this paper, we use life tables from the UN World Population Prospects to develop the most comprehensive dataset of lifespan inequality and polarization for 258 countries and areas for the period 1950-2021. These extensive series on lifespan distributions provide access to crucial information for researchers, practitioners, and the general public, thus contributing to a better understanding of health differences within and between nations.

Life years lost associated with mental illness: A cohort study of beneficiaries of a South African medical insurance scheme

BACKGROUND

People with mental illness have a reduced life expectancy, but the extent of the mortality gap and the contribution of natural and unnatural causes to excess mortality among people with mental illness in South Africa are unknown.

METHODS

We analysed reimbursement claims from South African medical insurance scheme beneficiaries aged 15-85 years. We estimated excess life years lost (LYL) associated with organic, substance use, psychotic, mood, anxiety, eating, personality, developmental or any mental disorders.

RESULTS

We followed 1,070,183 beneficiaries for a median of three years, of whom 282,926 (26.4 %) received mental health diagnoses. Men with a mental health diagnosis lost 3.83 life years (95 % CI 3.58-4.10) compared to men without. Women with a mental health diagnosis lost 2.19 life years (1.97-2.41) compared to women without. Excess mortality varied by sex and diagnosis, from 11.50 LYL (95 % CI 9.79-13.07) among men with alcohol use disorder to 0.87 LYL (0.40-1.43) among women with generalised anxiety disorder. Most LYL were attributable to natural causes (men: 3.42, women: 1.94). A considerable number of LYL were attributable to unnatural causes among men with bipolar (1.52) or substance use (2.45) disorder.

LIMITATIONS

Mental diagnoses are based on reimbursement claims.

CONCLUSIONS

Premature mortality among South African individuals with mental disorders is high. Our findings support interventions for the prevention, early detection, and treatment of physical comorbidities in this population. Targeted programs for suicide prevention and substance use treatment, particularly among men, can help reduce excess mortality from unnatural causes.

Reynolds N, R. Barnes M, Hull S, Finer S, Mathur R. Ethnic differences in early onset multimorbidity and associations with health service use, long-term prescribing, years of life lost, and mortality: A cross-sectional study using clustering in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND

The population prevalence of multimorbidity (the existence of at least 2 or more long-term conditions [LTCs] in an individual) is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. In this study, we applied a data-driven approach to identify clusters of individuals who had an early onset multimorbidity in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse population. We identified associations between clusters and a range of health outcomes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using linked primary and secondary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (CPRD GOLD), we conducted a cross-sectional study of 837,869 individuals with early onset multimorbidity (aged between 16 and 39 years old when the second LTC was recorded) registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. The study population included 777,906 people of White ethnicity (93%), 33,915 people of South Asian ethnicity (4%), and 26,048 people of Black African/Caribbean ethnicity (3%). A total of 204 LTCs were considered. Latent class analysis stratified by ethnicity identified 4 clusters of multimorbidity in White groups and 3 clusters in South Asian and Black groups. We found that early onset multimorbidity was more common among South Asian (59%, 33,915) and Black (56% 26,048) groups compared to the White population (42%, 777,906). Latent class analysis revealed physical and mental health conditions that were common across all ethnic groups (i.e., hypertension, depression, and painful conditions). However, each ethnic group also presented exclusive LTCs and different sociodemographic profiles: In White groups, the cluster with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was predominantly male (54%, 44,150) and more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. On the other hand, South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. At the end of the study, 4% (34,922) of the White early onset multimorbidity population had died compared to 2% of the South Asian and Black early onset multimorbidity populations (535 and 570, respectively); however, the latter groups died younger and lost more years of life. The 3 ethnic groups each displayed a cluster of individuals with increased rates of primary care consultations, hospitalisations, long-term prescribing, and odds of mortality. Study limitations include the exclusion of individuals with missing ethnicity information, the age of diagnosis not reflecting the actual age of onset, and the exclusion of people from Mixed, Chinese, and other ethnic groups due to insufficient power to investigate associations between multimorbidity and health-related outcomes in these groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work provides additional insights into the excess burden of early onset multimorbidity in those from socioeconomically deprived and diverse groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by multimorbidity and highlights the need to ensure healthcare improvements are equitable.

Lifespan variation among people with a given disease or condition

In addition to fundamental mortality metrics such as mortality rates and mortality rate ratios, life expectancy is also commonly used to investigate excess mortality among a group of individuals diagnosed with specific diseases or conditions. However, as an average measure, life expectancy ignores the heterogeneity in lifespan. Interestingly, the variation in lifespan-a measure commonly used in the field of demography-has not been estimated for people with a specific condition. Based on recent advances in methodology in research within epidemiology and demography, we discuss two metrics, namely, the average life disparity and average lifetable entropy after diagnosis, which estimate the variation in lifespan for time-varying conditions in both absolute and relative aspects. These metrics are further decomposed into early and late components, separated by their threshold ages. We use mortality data for women with mental disorders from Danish registers to design a population-based study and measure such metrics. Compared with women from the general population, women with a mental disorder had a shorter average remaining life expectancy after diagnosis (37.6 years vs. 44.9 years). In addition, women with mental disorders also experienced a larger average lifespan variation, illustrated by larger average life disparity (9.5 years vs 9.1 years) and larger average lifetable entropy (0.33 vs 0.27). More specifically, we found that women with a mental disorder had a larger early average life disparity but a smaller late average life disparity. Unlike the average life disparity, both early and late average lifetable entropy were higher for women with mental disorders compared to the general population. In conclusion, the metric proposed in our study complements the current research focusing merely on life expectancy and further provides a new perspective into the assessment of people's health associated with time-varying conditions.

Mortality Burden and Life-Years Lost Across the Age Spectrum for Adults Living with CKD

Key Points

Limited data exist to inform younger persons with CKD how their risk for mortality compares with equivalently aged individuals without CKD. Compared with the general population without CKD, the age-stratified risk for mortality was highest in younger individuals with CKD. From a lifetime perspective, the estimated reduction of lifespan secondary to CKD was greatest at younger ages.

Background

Younger individuals living with CKD face a lifetime at risk for complications and mortality. Limited data exist to inform individual patients with CKD across the lifespan how their risk for mortality compares with equivalently aged individuals without CKD, particularly at younger ages. The objective of this study was to provide age-specific contexts to the risk of mortality associated with a diagnosis of CKD.

Methods

We created a pooled study cohort using participants with CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort along with participants aged 21–75 years included in the 1999–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey surveys. Age-stratified mortality rates, along with unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality, were generated to compare differences between those with and without CKD. The mean life-years lost (LYL) relating to CKD was calculated using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention life tables.

Results

A total of 16,725 participants were included. Mortality rates were higher in those with CKD at all ages. The adjusted age-stratified HR for mortality in those with CKD versus without was highest in the 21–35 years strata (HR [95% confidence interval (CI)], 4.9 [2.8 to 8.6])) and lowest in the 65–75 years strata (HR [95% CI], 2.0 [1.7 to 2.3]). The mean LYL secondary to CKD was inversely related with increasing age.

Conclusions

Compared with age-matched peers without CKD, the age-stratified risk for mortality and LYL associated with a diagnosis of CKD is highest in younger individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the societal and personal costs of premature mortality associated with CKD in young adults.

Expected life years compared to the general population

For cohorts with long-term follow-up, the number of years lost due to a certain disease yields a measure with a simple and appealing interpretation. Recently, an overview of the methodology used for this goal has been published, and two measures have been proposed. In this work, we consider a third option that may be useful in settings in which the other two are inappropriate. In all three measures, the survival of the given dataset is compared to the expected survival in the general population which is calculated using external mortality tables. We thoroughly analyze the differences between the three measures, their assumptions, interpretation, and the corresponding estimators. The first measure is defined in a competing risk setting and assumes an excess hazard compared to the population, while the other two measures also allow estimation for groups that live better than the general population. In this case, the observed survival of the patients is compared to that in the population. The starting point of this comparison depends on whether the entry into the study is a hazard changing event (e.g., disease diagnosis or the age at which the inclusion criteria were met). Focusing on the newly defined life years difference measure, we study the estimation of the variance and consider the possible challenges (e.g., extrapolation) that occur in practice. We illustrate its use with a dataset of French Olympic athletes. Finally, an efficient R implementation has been developed for all three measures which make this work easily available to subsequent users.

Cumulative burden of 144 conditions, critical care hospitalisation and premature mortality across 26 adult cancers

A comprehensive evaluation of the total burden of morbidity endured by cancer survivors remains unavailable. This study quantified the burden of 144 health conditions and critical care admissions across 26 adult cancers and treatment modalities in 243,767 adults. By age 60, top conditions ranked by fold difference (cumulative burden in survivors divided by cumulative burden in controls) were haematology, immunology/infection and pulmonary conditions. Patients who had all three forms of treatment (chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery) experienced a high cumulative burden of late morbidities compared with patients who received radiotherapy alone. The top five cancers with the highest cumulative burden of critical care admissions by age 60 were bone (12.4 events per 100 individuals [CI: 11.6-13.1]), brain (9.0 [7.5-10.5]), spinal cord and nervous system (7.2 [6.7-7.8]), testis (6.7 [4.9-8.4]) and Hodgkin lymphoma (4.4 [3.6-5.1]). Conditions that were associated with high excess years-of-life-lost were haematological conditions (9.6 years), pulmonary conditions (8.6 years) and immunological conditions or infections (7.8 years). As the population of cancer survivors continues to grow, our results indicate that it is important to tackle long-term health consequences through enacting data-driven policies.

Influence of poor sleep on cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy: a multi-resource-based population cohort study

BACKGROUND

The complexity of sleep hinders the formulation of sleep guidelines. Recent studies suggest that different unhealthy sleep characteristics jointly increase the risks for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to estimate the differences in CVD-free life expectancy between people with different sleep profiles.

METHODS

We included 308,683 middle-aged adults from the UK Biobank among whom 140,181 had primary care data linkage. We used an established composite sleep score comprising self-reported chronotype, duration, insomnia complaints, snoring, and daytime sleepiness to derive three sleep categories: poor, intermediate, and healthy. We also identified three clinical sleep disorders captured by primary care and inpatient records within 2 years before enrollment in the cohort: insomnia, sleep-related breathing disorders, and other sleep disorders. We estimated sex-specific CVD-free life expectancy with three-state Markov models conditioning on survival at age 40 across different sleep profiles and clinical disorders.

RESULTS

We observed a gradual loss in CVD-free life expectancy toward poor sleep such as, compared with healthy sleepers, poor sleepers lost 1.80 [95% CI 0.96-2.75] and 2.31 [1.46-3.29] CVD-free years in females and males, respectively, while intermediate sleepers lost 0.48 [0.41-0.55] and 0.55 [0.49-0.61] years. Among men, those with clinical insomnia or sleep-related breathing disorders lost CVD-free life by 3.84 [0.61-8.59] or 6.73 [5.31-8.48] years, respectively. Among women, sleep-related breathing disorders or other sleep disorders were associated with 7.32 [5.33-10.34] or 1.43 [0.20-3.29] years lost, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both self-reported and doctor-diagnosed poor sleep are negatively associated with CVD-free life, especially pronounced in participants with sleep-related breathing disorders.

Cause-specific mortality and life years lost in people with epilepsy: a Danish cohort study

Mortality rates are two to three times higher in people with epilepsy than in the general population. This study aimed to quantify how this increased mortality translates into reduced life expectancy and to identify the underlying causes of deaths, thereby offering suggestions for how to reduce mortality associated with epilepsy. In this population-based cohort study, we included all individuals aged 0-94 years who were living in Denmark between 2000 and 2015. Using the nationwide registers, we identified people diagnosed with epilepsy and estimated the excess of life years lost due to 13 overall and nine specific causes of death. Among 6 022 160 people, we identified 129 598 with epilepsy (52.6% males), with a mean age of epilepsy onset of 36.5 years (standard deviation = 26.3 years). During the 16 years of follow-up, 851 087 individuals died, and of these 36 923 had been diagnosed with epilepsy. The average reduction in life expectancy in people with epilepsy was 11.84 years in males (95% confidence interval: 11.66-12.00) and 10.91 years in females (95% confidence interval: 10.70-11.11) compared to the general population. Life expectancy was reduced irrespective of epilepsy aetiology (symptomatic ∼14 years; idiopathic ∼8-10 years), and in particular in people with epilepsy and psychiatric comorbidity (∼13-16 years). Excess mortality was evident across all causes of death including cardiovascular disorders, accidents, and suicide. People with epilepsy experience a substantial reduction in lifespan that can only partly be explained by underlying conditions. Prevention of epilepsy-related deaths should focus on the consequences of psychiatric comorbidity and on modifiable risk factors associated with preventable causes of death such as accidents and neurological and cardiovascular disorders.

The association between mental disorders and subsequent years of working life: a Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders can affect workforce participation via a range of mechanisms. In this study, we aimed to estimate the association between different types of mental disorders and working years lost, defined as the number of years not actively working or enrolled in an educational programme.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we included all people aged 18-65 years (mean 38·0 [SD 13·9]) in the Danish Civil Registration System from Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2016. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and information on labour market characteristics was obtained from administrative registers. Follow-up started at age 18 years, immigration to Denmark, or on Jan 1, 1995, whichever came later; and it ended at age 65 years, death, emigration from Denmark, disability pension, voluntary early retirement, or Dec 31, 2016 (whichever came earlier). As the main outcome, we estimated working years lost for those diagnosed with any mental disorder and 24 types of mental disorders, as well as for the general population of same age and sex. We decomposed total working years lost into periods of unemployment or sick leave, disability pension, voluntary early retirement, or death. Data on ethnicity were not available through administrative registers.

FINDINGS

A total of 5 163 321 individuals, 2 642 383 men and 2 520 938 women, were followed up for 65·4 million person-years. Overall, 488 775 (9·47%) individuals were diagnosed with a mental disorder. On average, individuals with mental disorders lost an additional 10·52 (95% CI 10·48-10·57) years of working life compared with the general Danish population. Receiving a disability pension (7·54 [7·49-7·59] years) and longer periods of unemployment (2·24 [2·21-2·27] years) accounted for most of this difference.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings foreground the substantial impact of mental disorders on workforce participation. There is a need to invest in programmes that reduce the burden of working years lost and assist people with mental disorders in returning to the workforce.

FUNDING

Lundbeck Foundation and Danish National Research Foundation.

Waterborne diseases and ethnic-related disparities: A 10 years nationwide mortality and burden of disease analysis from Ecuador

Background

Despite worldwide progress in terms of clean water supply, sanitation, and hygiene knowledge, some middle and most of low-income countries are still experiencing many diseases transmitted using unsafe water and the lack of sanitation.

Methods

To understand the impact of all waterborne diseases (WBD) registered in Ecuador. We performed a population-based analysis of all cases and deaths due to WBD in Ecuador based on the national public databases of hospital discharges as a proxy of incidence, in-hospital mortality, and countrywide general mortality rates from 2011 to 2020.

Results

In Ecuador, mestizos (mixed European and Indigenous American ancestry) had the greatest morbidity rate (141/100,000), followed by indigenous (63/100,000) and self-determined white patients (21/100,000). However, in terms of mortality, indigenous population have the greatest risk and rates, having a 790% additional mortality rate (2.6/100,000) than the reference group (self-determined white populations) at 0.29/100,000. The burden of disease analysis demonstrated that indigenous had the highest burden of disease caused by WBD with 964 YLL per every 100,000 people while mestizos have 360 YYL per 100,000 and self-determined white Ecuadorians have 109 YYL per 100,000.

Conclusions

In Ecuador, waterborne diseases (WBD) are still a major public health problem. We found that indigenous population had higher probability of getting sick and die due to WBD than the rest of the ethnic groups in Ecuador. We also found that younger children and the elderly are more likely to be admitted to the hospital due to a WBD. These epidemiological trends are probably associated with the lower life expectancy found among Indigenous than among the rest of the ethnic groups, who die at least, 39 years earlier than the self-determined white populations, 28 years earlier than Afro-Ecuadorians and 12 years earlier than the mestizos.

Mortality and life-years lost following subsequent physical comorbidity in people with pre-existing substance use disorders: a national registry-based retrospective cohort study of hospitalised individuals in Czechia

BACKGROUND

Substance use disorders constitute a major global public health problem, attributable largely to their subsequent comorbidity with other health conditions. This study aimed to investigate the risk of all-cause death and life-years lost following hospitalisation for 28 subsequent physical comorbid conditions in people with a previous hospitalisation for substance use disorder, compared with matched counterparts without substance use disorder.

METHODS

We did a retrospective cohort study on data from Czech nationwide registers of all-cause hospitalisations and deaths during the period from Jan 1, 1994, to Dec 31, 2017. The cohorts consisted of individuals who had initially been hospitalised between 15 and 70 years of age (index hospitalisation) and who were subsequently hospitalised with one or more of 28 comorbid physical health conditions. We included individuals with an index hospitalisation for substance use disorders and up to three counterparts without substance use disorders with a subsequent hospitalisation for the same physical health condition, with matching on sex, age (±3 years), work status, and discharge year at first hospitalisation for the subsequent condition. Data on ethnicity were not available. Risk of death due to any cause following the first hospitalisation for each physical health condition until Dec 31, 2017, and life-years lost after disease onset at ages 30, 45, and 60 years, and before 81 years of age, were examined.

FINDINGS

From a total 56 229 563 records of hospitalisations identified, we included 121 153 people with hospitalisation for substance use disorders and 6 742 134 people without hospitalisation for substance use disorders in the study. The 28 condition-specific cohorts comprised a median of 6444 individuals (IQR 2033-12 358), ranging from 444 for multiple sclerosis to 36 356 for diseases of the circulatory system. Across the cohorts, the proportion of males ranged from 31·4% for thyroid disorder to 100·0% for prostate disorders. The mean baseline age ranged from 30·0 years (SD 9·1) for chronic viral hepatitis in people with pre-existing substance use disorders to 62·2 years (9·7) for Parkinson's disease in people without pre-existing substance use disorders. After adjusting for potential confounders using stratified Cox proportional hazards models, individuals with a pre-existing substance use disorder had an increased risk of death due to any cause after the onset of 26 out of 28 physical health conditions, relative to their counterparts without substance use disorders, with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1·15 (1·09-1·21) for chronic liver disease to 3·86 (2·62-5·67) for thyroid disorder. For seven subsequent health conditions, the risk of death was more than doubled in the group with pre-existing substance use disorders. When compared with the general population via mortality tables, people with pre-existing substance use disorders had substantial losses in life-years after the onset of most of the subsequent physical health conditions regardless of age of onset, and, for the majority of comorbidities, lost considerably more life-years than their counterparts without substance use disorders.

INTERPRETATION

A history of hospitalisation for substance use disorders appears to have a significant negative effect on prognosis following the development of various subsequent physical health conditions. These findings strongly suggest that clinical vigilance and high-quality integrated treatment for people with substance use disorders could be life-saving and should be given higher priority on the public health agenda.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration East of England at Cambridge and Peterborough National Health Service Foundation Trust.

Standardised survival and excess Life Years Lost in patients with type 3 intestinal failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Long term outcomes have been reported in home parenteral nutrition (HPN)-dependent patients with type 3 intestinal failure (IF), but there are limited survival data standardised to the general population that would help provide a meaningful prognosis for patients and clinicians. The primary aim of this study was therefore to investigate the survival of HPN-dependent patients and to evaluate the specific impact of type 3 IF on their life expectancy standardised to that of the general population.

METHODS

This was a cohort study of adult patients initiated on HPN between 1978 and 2018 at a national UK IF reference centre and followed up until death or censoring date of 31st December 2020. The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated as observed deaths divided by expected deaths using UK Office for National Statistics database. Excess Life Years Lost (LYL) were calculated separately for each sex as the differences in average life expectancy between patients with type 3 IF and the general population. Survival data were evaluated using cox regression models adjusting for confounding.

RESULTS

In total, 1046 patients were identified, with a total observation time of 7344.1 patient-years. Patients with malignancy (n = 206) were excluded from the survival analysis. Of the remaining 840 patients, 398 were alive by the end of follow-up. The probability of survival was 91.8% at 1 year, 69.3% at 5 years, 54.3% at 10 years, 29.8% at 20 years and 16.7% at 30 years. Patients who did not achieve nutritional autonomy had an increased likelihood of death compared to patients who ceased HPN. In total, 40 (9.0%) deaths were HPN or IF-related, while underlying disease leading to IF accounted for 98 (22.2%) deaths. There were 270 (61.1%) deaths not related to IF, with the majority of these patients dying from infections unrelated to HPN. Overall mortality rates were higher among patients with a diagnosis of type 3 IF compared with the general UK population with a SMR of 7.48 (95% CI 6.80 to 8.21) and an excess mortality rate of 54.0 per 1000 person-years. All mechanisms of IF were associated with excess mortality, with SMR ranging from 6.82 (95% CI 5.98 to 7.72) for short bowel syndrome to 15.51 (95% CI 11.73 to 20.03) for dysmotility. On average, the excess LYL was 17.45 years for males and 17.39 years for females compared with the general population of the same age.

CONCLUSION

This the largest single-centre series reporting survival outcomes in patients with type 3 IF over more than a four-decade period and the first to report LYL in this patient cohort. Type 3 IF was associated with more than seven-fold higher mortality rates than for the general UK population and shorter life expectancies of more than 17 years. Survival, however, was better in those able to achieve nutritional autonomy. Since the majority of deaths were due to non-HPN or non-IF causes, there is clearly a need now to further explore these causes of death in order to improve our understanding of excessive mortality in type 3 IF and develop ways to prevent it.

Diagnosis and treatment of opioid-related disorders in a South African private sector medical insurance scheme: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

The use of opioids is increasing globally, but data from low- and middle-income countries on opioid-related mental and behavioural disorders (hereafter referred to as opioid-related disorders) are scarce. This study examines the incidence of opioid-related disorders, opioid agonist use, and excess mortality among persons with opioid-related disorders in South Africa's private healthcare sector.

METHODS

We analysed longitudinal data of beneficiaries (≥ 11 years) of a South African medical insurance scheme using reimbursement claims from Jan 1, 2011, to Jul 1, 2020. Beneficiaries were classified as having an opioid-related disorder if they received an opioid agonist (buprenorphine or methadone) or an ICD-10 diagnosis for harmful opioid use (F11.1), opioid dependence or withdrawal (F11.2-4), or an unspecified or other opioid-related disorder (F11.0, F11.5-9). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for factors associated with opioid-related disorders, estimated the cumulative incidence of opioid agonist use after receiving an ICD-10 diagnosis for opioid dependence or withdrawal, and examined excess mortality among beneficiaries with opioid-related disorders.

RESULTS

Of 1,251,458 beneficiaries, 1286 (0.1%) had opioid-related disorders. Between 2011 and 2020, the incidence of opioid-related disorders increased by 12% (95% CI 9%-15%) per year. Men, young adults in their twenties, and beneficiaries with co-morbid mental health or other substance use disorders were at increased risk of opioid-related disorders. The cumulative incidence of opioid agonist use among beneficiaries who received an ICD-10 diagnosis for opioid dependence or withdrawal was 18.0% (95% CI 14.0-22.4) 3 years after diagnosis. After adjusting for age, sex, year, medical insurance coverage, and population group, opioid-related disorders were associated with an increased risk of mortality (aHR 2.28, 95% CI 1.84-2.82). Opioid-related disorders were associated with a 7.8-year shorter life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of people diagnosed with or treated for an opioid-related disorder in the private sector is increasing rapidly. People with opioid-related disorders are a vulnerable population with substantial psychiatric comorbidity who often die prematurely. Evidence-based management of opioid-related disorders is urgently needed to improve the health outcomes of people with opioid-related disorders.

Analysis of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders in Denmark, 2000 to 2018: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.

Mortality Associated With Mental Disorders and Comorbid General Medical Conditions

IMPORTANCE

Premature mortality has been observed among people with mental disorders. Comorbid general medical conditions contribute substantially to this reduction in life expectancy.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an analysis of mortality associated with comorbidity between a broad range of mental disorders and general medical conditions.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort study of 5 946 800 individuals born in Denmark from 1900 to 2015 and residing in the country at the start of follow-up (January 1, 2000, or their date of birth, whichever occurred later).

EXPOSURES

Danish health registers were used to identify people with mental disorders and general medical conditions.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Considering pairs of mental disorders and general medical conditions, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and differences in life expectancy (ie, life-years lost) to assess the association of mortality with both disorders of interest compared with the mental disorder of interest, the general medical condition of interest, and neither disorder of interest.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 2 961 397 males and 2 985 403 females, with a median (IQR) age of 32.0 years (7.3-52.9) at start of follow-up and 48.9 years (42.5-68.8) at the end. Based on all pairs of comorbid mental disorders and general medical conditions, the mean MRR compared with people without these conditions was 5.90 (median, 4.94; IQR, 3.80-7.30), and the mean reduction of life expectancy compared with the general population was 11.35 years (median, 11.08; range, 5.27-23.53; IQR, 8.22-13.72). The association with general medical condition comorbidity in those with mental disorders varied by general medical condition; for example, the addition of a neurological condition for each of the mental disorders was associated with a mean MRR of 1.22, whereas for cancer, the mean MRR for all mental disorders was 4.07.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, shorter life expectancy was associated with comorbid mental disorders and general medical conditions compared with the entire population and also when compared with patients who had either mental disorders only or general medical conditions only. Prevention and early detection of comorbidities could reduce premature mortality in patients with mental disorders.

Educational attainment and mortality in schizophrenia

BACKGROUND

Individuals suffering from schizophrenia have a reduced life expectancy with cardiovascular disease (CVD) as a major contributor. Low educational attainment is associated with schizophrenia, as well as with all-cause and CVD mortality. However, it is unknown to what extent low educational attainment can explain the increased mortality in individuals with schizophrenia.

AIM

Here, we quantify associations between educational attainment and all-cause and CVD mortality in individuals with schizophrenia, and compare them with the corresponding associations in the general population.

METHOD

All Norwegian citizens born between January 1, 1925, and December 31, 1959, were followed up from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2014. The total sample included 1,852,113 individuals, of which 6548 were registered with schizophrenia. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause and CVD mortality with Cox models, in addition to life years lost. Educational attainment for index persons and their parents were included in the models.

RESULTS

In the general population individuals with low educational attainment had higher risk of all-cause (HR: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.47-1.49]) and CVD (HR: 1.59 [95% CI: 1.57-1.61]) mortality. In individuals with schizophrenia these estimates were substantially lower (all-cause: HR: 1.13 [95% CI: 1.05-1.21] and CVD: HR: 1.12 [95% CI: 0.98-1.27]). Low educational attainment accounted for 3.28 (3.21-3.35) life years lost in males and 2.48 (2.42-2.55) years in females in the general population, but was not significantly associated with life years lost in individuals with schizophrenia. Results were similar for parental educational attainment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that while individuals with schizophrenia in general have lower educational attainment and higher mortality rates compared with the general population, the association between educational attainment and mortality is smaller in schizophrenia subjects than in the general population.

Cumulative burden of psychiatric disorders and self-harm across 26 adult cancers

Cancer is a life-altering event causing considerable psychological distress. However, information on the total burden of psychiatric disorders across all common adult cancers and therapy exposures has remained scarce. Here, we estimated the risk of self-harm after incident psychiatric disorder diagnosis in patients with cancer and the risk of unnatural deaths after self-harm in 459,542 individuals. Depression was the most common psychiatric disorder in patients with cancer. Patients who received chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery had the highest cumulative burden of psychiatric disorders. Patients treated with alkylating agent chemotherapeutics had the highest burden of psychiatric disorders, whereas those treated with kinase inhibitors had the lowest burden. All mental illnesses were associated with an increased risk of subsequent self-harm, where the highest risk was observed within 12 months of the mental illness diagnosis. Patients who harmed themselves were 6.8 times more likely to die of unnatural causes of death compared with controls within 12 months of self-harm (hazard ratio (HR), 6.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.3-10.7). The risk of unnatural death after 12 months was markedly lower (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5-2.7). We provide an extensive knowledge base to help inform collaborative cancer-psychiatric care initiatives by prioritizing patients who are most at risk.

Adding Short-Term Androgen Deprivation Therapy to Radiation Therapy in Men With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Update of the NRG/RTOG 9408 Randomized Clinical Trial

PURPOSE

For men with localized prostate cancer, NRG Oncology/Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9408 demonstrated that adding short-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) improved the primary endpoint of overall survival (OS) and improved disease-specific mortality (DSM), biochemical failure (BF), local progression, and freedom from distant metastases (DM). This study was performed to determine whether the short-term ADT continued to improve OS, DSM, BF, and freedom from DM with longer follow-up.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

From 1994 to 2001, NRG/RTOG 9408 randomized 2028 men from 212 North American institutions with T1b-T2b, N0 prostate adenocarcinoma and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤20ng/mL to RT alone or RT plus short-term ADT. Patients were stratified by PSA, tumor grade, and surgical versus clinical nodal staging. ADT was flutamide with either goserelin or leuprolide for 4 months. Prostate RT (66.6 Gy) was started after 2 months. OS was calculated at the date of death from any cause or at last follow-up. Secondary endpoints were DSM, BF, local progression, and DM. Acute and late toxic effects were assessed using RTOG toxicity scales.

RESULTS

Median follow-up in surviving patients was 14.8 years (range, 0.16-21.98). The 10-year and 18-year OS was 56% and 23%, respectively, with RT alone versus 63% and 23% with combined therapy (HR 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.05; P = .94). The hazards were not proportional (P = .003). Estimated restricted mean survival time at 18 years was 11.8 years (95% CI, 11.4-12.1) with combined therapy versus 11.3 years with RT alone (95% CI, 10.9-11.6; P = .05). The 10-year and 18-year DSM was 7% and 14%, respectively, with RT alone versus 3% and 8% with combined therapy (HR 0.56; 95% CI, 0.41-0.75; P < .01). DM and BF favored combined therapy at 18 years. Rates of late grade ≥3 hepatic, gastrointestinal, and genitourinary toxicity were ≤1%, 3%, and 8%, respectively, with combined therapy versus ≤1%, 2%, and 5% with RT alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Further follow-up demonstrates that OS converges at approximately 15 years, by which point the administration of 4 months of ADT had conferred an estimated additional 6 months of life.

Increased burden of cardiovascular disease in people with liver disease: unequal geographical variations, risk factors and excess years of life lost

Background

People with liver disease are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, there has yet been an investigation of incidence burden, risk, and premature mortality across a wide range of liver conditions and cardiovascular outcomes.

Methods

We employed population-wide electronic health records (EHRs; from 1998 to 2020) consisting of almost 4 million adults to assess regional variations in disease burden of five liver conditions, alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, chronic hepatitis B infection (HBV), chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) and NAFLD, in England. We analysed regional differences in incidence rates for 17 manifestations of CVD in people with or without liver disease. The associations between biomarkers and comorbidities and risk of CVD in patients with liver disease were estimated using Cox models. For each liver condition, we estimated excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to CVD (i.e., difference in YLL between people with or without CVD).

Results

The age-standardised incidence rate for any liver disease was 114.5 per 100,000 person years. The highest incidence was observed in NAFLD (85.5), followed by ALD (24.7), HCV (6.0), HBV (4.1) and autoimmune liver disease (3.7). Regionally, the North West and North East regions consistently exhibited high incidence burden. Age-specific incidence rate analyses revealed that the peak incidence for liver disease of non-viral aetiology is reached in individuals aged 50–59 years. Patients with liver disease had a two-fold higher incidence burden of CVD (2634.6 per 100,000 persons) compared to individuals without liver disease (1339.7 per 100,000 persons). When comparing across liver diseases, atrial fibrillation was the most common initial CVD presentation while hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was the least common. We noted strong positive associations between body mass index and current smoking and risk of CVD. Patients who also had diabetes, hypertension, proteinuric kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, diverticular disease and gastro-oesophageal reflex disorders had a higher risk of CVD, as do patients with low albumin, raised C-reactive protein and raised International Normalized Ratio levels. All types of CVD were associated with shorter life expectancies. When evaluating excess YLLs by age of CVD onset and by liver disease type, differences in YLLs, when comparing across CVD types, were more pronounced at younger ages.

Conclusions

We developed a public online app (https://lailab.shinyapps.io/cvd_in_liver_disease/) to showcase results interactively. We provide a blueprint that revealed previously underappreciated clinical factors related to the risk of CVD, which differed in the magnitude of effects across liver diseases. We found significant geographical variations in the burden of liver disease and CVD, highlighting the need to devise local solutions. Targeted policies and regional initiatives addressing underserved communities might help improve equity of access to CVD screening and treatment.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-021-03210-9.

Late effects of cancer in children, teenagers and young adults: Population-based study on the burden of 183 conditions, in-patient and critical care admissions and years of life lost

BACKGROUND

Children, teenagers and young adults who survived cancer are prone to developing late effects. The burden of late effects across a large number of conditions, in-patient hospitalisation and critical care admissions have not been described using a population-based dataset. We aim to systematically quantify the cumulative burden of late effects across all cancer subtypes, treatment modalities and chemotherapy drug classes.

METHODS

We employed primary care records linked to hospitals, the death registry and cancer registry from 1998-2020. CTYA survivors were 25 years or younger at the time of cancer diagnosis had survived ≥5 years post-diagnosis. Year-of-birth and sex-matched community controls were used for comparison. We considered nine treatment types, nine chemotherapy classes and 183 physical and mental health late effects. Cumulative burden was estimated using mean cumulative count, which considers recurring events. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the association between treatment exposures and late effects. Excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to late effects were estimated.

FINDINGS

Among 4,063 patients diagnosed with cancer, 3,466 survived ≥ 5 years (85%); 13,517 matched controls were identified. The cumulative burden of late effects at age 35 was the highest in survivors of leukaemia (23.52 per individual [95% CI:19.85-29.33]) and lowest in survivors of germ cell tumours (CI:6.04 [5.32-6.91]). In controls, the cumulative burden was 3.99 (CI:3.93-4.08) at age 35 years. When survivors reach age 45, the cumulative burden for immunological conditions and infections was the highest (3.27 [CI:3.01-3.58]), followed by cardiovascular conditions (3.08 [CI:1.98-3.29]). Survivors who received chemotherapy and radiotherapy had the highest disease burden compared to those who received surgery only. These patients also had the highest burden of hospitalisation (by age 45: 10.43 [CI:8.27-11.95]). Survivors who received antimetabolite chemotherapy had the highest disease and hospitalisation burden, while the lowest burden is observed in those receiving antitumour antibiotics. Regression analyses revealed that survivors who received only surgery had lower odds of developing cardiovascular (adjusted odds ratio 0.73 [CI:0.56-0.94]), haematological (aOR 0.51 [CI:0.37-0.70]), immunology and infection (aOR 0.84 [CI:0.71-0.99]) and renal (aOR 0.51 [CI:0.39-0.66]) late effects. By contrast, the opposite trend was observed in survivors who received chemo-radiotherapy. High antimetabolite chemotherapy cumulative dose was associated with increased risks of subsequent cancer (aOR 2.32 [CI:1.06-4.84]), metastatic cancer (aOR 4.44 [CI:1.29-11.66]) and renal (aOR 3.48 [CI:1.36-7.86]) conditions. Patients who received radiation dose of ≥50 Gy experienced higher risks of developing metastatic cancer (aOR 5.51 [CI:2.21-11.86]), cancer (aOR 3.77 [CI:2.22-6.34]), haematological (aOR 3.43 [CI:1.54-6.83]) and neurological (aOR 3.24 [CI:1.78-5.66]) conditions. Similar trends were observed in survivors who received more than three teletherapy fields. Cumulative burden analyses on 183 conditions separately revealed varying dominance of different late effects across cancer types, socioeconomic deprivation and treatment modalities. Late effects are associated with excess YLL (i.e., the difference in YLL between survivors with or without late effects), which was the most pronounced among survivors with haematological comorbidities.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this is the first study to dissect and quantify the importance of late morbidities on subsequent survival using linked electronic health records from multiple settings. The burden of late effects is heterogeneous, as is the risk of premature mortality associated with late effects. We provide an extensive knowledgebase to help inform treatment decisions at the point of diagnosis, future interventional trials and late-effects screening centred on the holistic needs of this vulnerable population.

A nation-wide population-based longitudinal study on life expectancy and cause specific mortality in patients with bipolar disorder and their siblings

OBJECTIVE

Mortality is increased in bipolar disorder due to both suicide and death by physical disorders, but it has never been investigated whether these mortalities translate into relatives to patients with bipolar disorder. The aim was to present the life expectancy and the overall mortality and mortality due to suicide and physical disorders among patients with bipolar disorder and their unaffected full siblings, respectively, compared with control individuals from the general population.

METHODS

We used Danish nation-wide population-based longitudinal register linkage to identify 19.955 patients with bipolar disorder, their 13.923 siblings and 20 sex, age and calendar matched control individuals from the general population. Follow-up was from 1995 to 2017.

RESULTS

Bipolar disorder was associated with a decreased life expectancy of 7.7 (95% CI: 7.4-8.1) years and increased mortality overall (hazard ratio (HR): 2.11 (95% CI: 2.04-2.18)) and due to suicide (HR: 18.23 (95% CI: 15.81-21.02) and physical disorders (HR: 2.01 (95% CI: 1.94-2.08). In contrast, siblings to patients with bipolar disorder who were unaffected by bipolar disorder did not have decreased life expectancy (0.45 (95% CI: -6.62-2.46)) or increased mortality overall (HR: 1.00 (95% CI: 0.88-1.14) or due to suicide (HR: 1.50 (95% CI: 0.95-2.36) or physical disorders (HR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.87-1.34).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased mortality in bipolar disorder is mainly due to the impact of bipolar psychopathology and to a lesser degree to familial transmitted factors, highlighting the urgent need for preventive intervention studies in relation to suicide and physical disorders following onset of bipolar disorder.

Trends in kidney failure and kidney replacement therapy in people with diabetes in Hong Kong, 2002-2015: A retrospective cohort study

Background

There are limited population-wide trend data on kidney failure and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in people with diabetes. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to report incidence trends of kidney failure and KRT and related mortality in people with diabetes in Hong Kong between 2002 and 2015.

Methods

We used territory-wide electronic medical records including laboratory, diagnostic and procedural data to identify people with kidney failure and KRT. We used Joinpoint regression models to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of kidney failure and KRT incidence for entire study period, and annual percent change (APC) for each linear trend segment, along with 1-year and 5-year mortality rates.

Findings

During 4.9 million person-years of follow-up of 712,222 people with diabetes, 31,425 developed kidney failure, among whom 23.0% (n=7,233) received KRT. The incidence of kidney failure declined by 46.8% from 2002 to 2007 (APC: -11.6, 95% CI: -16.3, -6.7), then flattened from 2007 to 2015 (APC: -0.9, 95% CI: -3.1, 1.3). The incidence of KRT remained constant (AAPC: -1.6, 95% CI: -4.4, 1.2). The 1-year mortality rates declined statistically significantly after both kidney failure and KRT. The 5-year mortality rates declined after kidney failure but the decline was not statistically significant after KRT.

Interpretation

The findings of our study highlight the importance of developing new strategies to prevent a looming epidemic of kidney failure in people with diabetes in Hong Kong.

Funding

Asia Diabetes Foundation

Excess mortality and life-years lost in people with bipolar disorder: an 11-year population-based cohort study

AIMS

Bipolar disorder is associated with premature mortality, but evidence is mostly derived from Western countries. There has been no research evaluating shortened lifespan in bipolar disorder using life-years lost (LYLs), which is a recently developed mortality metric taking into account illness onset for life expectancy estimation. The current study aimed to examine the extent of premature mortality in bipolar disorder patients relative to the general population in Hong Kong (HK) in terms of standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and excess LYLs, and changes of mortality rate over time.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study investigated excess mortality in 12 556 bipolar disorder patients between 2008 and 2018, by estimating all-cause and cause-specific SMRs, and LYLs. Trends in annual SMRs over the 11-year study period were assessed. Study data were retrieved from a territory-wide medical-record database of HK public healthcare services.

RESULTS

Patients had higher all-cause [SMR: 2.60 (95% CI: 2.45-2.76)], natural-cause [SMR: 1.90 (95% CI: 1.76-2.05)] and unnatural-cause [SMR: 8.63 (95% CI: 7.34-10.03)] mortality rates than the general population. Respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cancers accounted for the majority of deaths. Men and women with bipolar disorder had 6.78 (95% CI: 6.00-7.84) years and 7.35 (95% CI: 6.75-8.06) years of excess LYLs, respectively. The overall mortality gap remained similar over time, albeit slightly improved in men with bipolar disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

Bipolar disorder is associated with increased premature mortality and substantially reduced lifespan in a predominantly Chinese population, with excess deaths mainly attributed to natural causes. Persistent mortality gap underscores an urgent need for targeted interventions to improve physical health of patients with bipolar disorder.

Early labor force exits in patients with treatment-resistant depression: an assessment of work years lost in a Danish nationwide register-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Depression is one of the leading causes of premature workforce exit in many Western countries, but little is known about the extent to which treatment-resistance reduces number of work-years. We compared the risk of premature workforce exit among patients with treatment-resistant depression (TRD) relative to non-TRD patients and estimated work years lost (WYL) before scheduled retirement age.

METHODS

The study population, identified in the Danish National Prescription Registry, included all individuals born and living in Denmark who redeemed their first antidepressant (AD) prescription for depression at age 18-60 years between 2005 and 2012. TRD was defined as failure to respond to at least two different treatment trials. Premature workforce exit was measured using disability pension records. We used Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for premature workforce exit in TRD relative to non-TRD patients, adjusting for calendar year, psychiatric and somatic comorbidity, and educational level. Differences in WYL in patients with TRD and all depression patients were estimated through a competing risks model.

RESULTS

Out of the total sample of patients with depression (N = 129,945), 7478 (5.75%) were classified as having TRD. During follow up, 17% of patients with TRD and 8% of non-TRD patients received disability pension, resulting in a greater than three-fold larger risk of premature workforce exit [adjusted HR (aHR) 3.23 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-3.43]. The TRD group lost on average six work-years (95% CI 5.64-6.47) more than the total sample due to early labor force exit. The association between TRD and age at premature workforce exit was inversely U-shaped; the hazard rate of premature workforce exit for patients with TRD compared with non-TRD patients was highest in the age groups 31-35, 36-40, and 41-45 years.

CONCLUSION

Patients with TRD constitute a small group within depression patients, but contribute disproportionally to societal costs due to premature workforce exit at a young age.

Nature and prevalence of combinations of mental disorders and their association with excess mortality in a population-based cohort study

The nature and prevalence of combinations of mental disorders and their associations with premature mortality have never been reported in a comprehensive way. We describe the most common combinations of mental disorders and estimate excess mortality associated with these combinations. We designed a population-based cohort study including all 7,505,576 persons living in Denmark at some point between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2016. Information on mental disorders and mortality was obtained from national registers. A total of 546,090 individuals (10.5%) living in Denmark on January 1, 1995 were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder during the 22-year follow-up period. The overall crude rate of diagnosis of mental disorders was 9.28 (95% CI: 9.26-9.30) per 1,000 person-years. The rate of diagnosis of additional mental disorders was 70.01 (95% CI: 69.80-70.26) per 1,000 person-years for individuals with one disorder already diagnosed. At the end of follow-up, two out of five individuals with mental disorders were diagnosed with two or more disorder types. The most prevalent were neurotic/stress-related/somatoform disorders (ICD-10 F40-F48) and mood disorders (ICD-10 F30-F39), which - alone or in combination with other disorders - were present in 64.8% of individuals diagnosed with any mental disorder. Mortality rates were higher for people with mental disorders compared to those without mental disorders. The highest mortality rate ratio was 5.97 (95% CI: 5.52-6.45) for the combination of schizophrenia (ICD-10 F20-F29), neurotic/stress-related/somatoform disorders and substance use disorders (ICD-10 F10-F19). Any combination of mental disorders was associated with a shorter life expectancy compared to the general Danish population, with differences in remaining life expectancy ranging from 5.06 years (95% CI: 5.01-5.11) to 17.46 years (95% CI: 16.86-18.03). The largest excess mortality was observed for combinations that included substance use disorders. This study reports novel estimates related to the "force of comorbidity" and provides new insights into the contribution of substance use disorders to premature mortality in those with comorbid mental disorders.

Changes Over Time in the Differential Mortality Gap in Individuals With Mental Disorders

This study examines changes in mortality rate ratios and life-years lost for both external and natural causes over 20 years for specific mental disorders.

Association of Specific Mental Disorders With Premature Mortality in the Danish Population Using Alternative Measurement Methods

IMPORTANCE

The association of mental disorders with premature mortality published in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies has been underestimated because these analyses have recommended using only a small number of mental disorders as causes of death to estimate years of life lost (YLL). Alternative methods have been introduced, such as estimating life-years lost (LYL), to compare individuals with mental disorders with the general population.

OBJECTIVES

To generate register-based YLL and LYL estimates and to use these measurement methods to assess the association of specific mental disorders with premature mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study included all persons with and without mental disorders aged 0 to 94 years who were living in Denmark between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2015. Data were analyzed from January to December 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Danish health registers were used to identify mental disorder diagnoses, dates of death, and causes of death. The YLLs were estimated for the set of mental health-associated causes of death, and all-cause and cause-specific LYLs were estimated for 18 specific mental disorders and 3 broad categories of mental disorders that were recommended for use in the GBD studies. The association between the number of comorbid mental disorders (divided into categories of persons with ≥1 type of disorder, ≥2 types of disorders, ≥3 types of disorders, and ≥4 types of disorders) and LYL estimates was also examined.

RESULTS

A total of 6 989 627 individuals (3 481 219 male persons [49.8%] and 3 508 408 female persons [50.2%]; mean [SD] age at study enrollment, 32.2 [24.4] years) were followed up for a total of 85 911 461 person-years. The YLL rates per 100 000 person-years were highest for alcohol use disorder (for male individuals, 568.7 [95% CI, 564.4-572.7]; for female individuals, 155.5 [95% CI, 153.5-157.9]) and suicide (for male individuals, 590.1 [95% CI, 583.8-596.5]; for female individuals, 202.3 [95% CI, 198.5-206.4]). Although only 3 of 18 mental and substance use disorders could be associated with YLL, all mental disorders were associated with shorter life expectancies when LYL was used for measurement. Male and female individuals diagnosed with any mental disorder had life expectancies that were shorter by 11.2 years (95% CI, 11.1-11.3 years) and 7.9 years (95% CI, 7.8-8.0 years), respectively, and remaining life expectancy decreased further among those with comorbid mental disorders. Drug use disorders were associated with the highest excess LYL estimates; however, common mental disorders, such as depressive and anxiety disorders, were also associated with substantial premature mortality.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Mental disorders were observed to be associated with reductions in life expectancy. This finding provides a foundation for future intervention programs designed to reduce the differential mortality gap associated with mental disorders. Register-based studies allow the calculation of precise individual-level YLLs and LYLs, and both measurement methods are informative for health care planning. Compared with YLL, the novel LYL measurement approach may more precisely capture the association of mental disorders with premature mortality and facilitates the exploration of comorbidity and specific causes of death in individuals with mental disorders.