GeoSES: A socioeconomic index for health and social research in Brazil

Precarity in the Modes of Living: Proposing an Index for Studying Health Inequities at the Ecological Level in Colombia

Deprivation indices are used to monitor health inequities. However, their theoretical underpinnings have been based on the context of Western industrialized countries, which have distinct social and historical backgrounds compared to Latin America and the Caribbean and countries in the Global South. Following the Latin American Social Determination of Health perspective, particularly the category Modes of Living supported by the construct of precarity, we aimed to develop an index of precarity in the modes of living at the department level in Colombia and assess its geographical distribution and potential value for public health. We conducted an ecological cross-sectional study with national administrative records. We developed a precarity index through Principal Component Analysis and performed spatial autocorrelation analyses and regression models with child mortality indicators. Our final index comprised twenty indicators representing four dimensions of the modes of living and power relations. We found precarity not to distribute randomly in Colombia, with a center-periphery divide and higher precarity observed in the country's margin. We also found an association of our index with under-five mortality (SMR = 1.19; 95%CI 1.08-1.31) and infant mortality (SMR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.00-1.26). Our index highlights the relevance of considering the modes of living when devising deprivation indices or similar measures from Colombia or Latin America. This approach may provide different perspectives on the health-disease process and potential value for public health planning.

Development of a territory-wide household-based composite index for measuring relative distribution of households by economic status in individual small areas throughout Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Many countries have developed their country/nation-wide multidimensional area-based index on deprivation or socioeconomic status for resource allocation, service planning and research. However, whether each geographical unit proxied by a single index is sufficiently small to contain a relatively homogeneous population remains questionable. Globally, this is the first study that presents the distribution of domestic households by the territory-wide economic status index decile groups within each of the 2,252 small subunit groups (SSUGs) throughout Hong Kong, with a median study population of 1,300 and a median area of 42,400 m2.

METHODS

The index development involved 248,000 anonymized sampled household-based data collected from the population census, representing 2·66 million domestic households and 6·93 million population in mid-2021. Our composite index comprises seven variables under income-/wealth-related and housing-related domains with weights determined using the analytic hierarchy process. After ranking all households from the most to the least well-off according to the numeric/ordinal value of each variable and then calculating their weighted rank scores, they were segregated into ten deciles from D1 (top 10% most well-off) to D10 (bottom 10%). Their relative distribution was summarized in a three-dimensional ternary plot to distinguish patterns across the 2,252 SSUGs within the 18 administrative districts.

RESULTS

In Hong Kong, of the 2,252 SSUGs, only one-quarter contain a homogeneous composition of households with similar economic status, while the other three-quarters are heterogeneous to varying extents. Of the 18 administrative districts, only two are concentrated with more homogeneously well-off SSUGs.

CONCLUSIONS

Small-sized geographical units may contain a heterogeneous composition of households with diverse economic statuses, underlying the need for more precise information to quantify their relative distribution. Results of this study are disseminated via an online interactive map dashboard ( https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/‌b4c7643feb9043eb94b3add386c4b71c /) which can serve as a versatile planning tool capable of performing analysis at different varying geographic scales for community-based resource prioritization, service planning and research across different domains.

Association of pulmonary black carbon accumulation with cardiac fibrosis in residents of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Evidence suggests that myocardial interstitial fibrosis, resulting from cardiac remodeling, may possibly be influenced by mechanisms activated through the inhalation of airborne pollutants. However, limited studies have explored the relationship between lifetime exposure to carbon-based particles and cardiac fibrosis, specially using post-mortem samples. This study examined whether long-term exposure to air pollution (estimated by black carbon accumulated in the lungs) is associated with myocardial fibrosis in urban dwellers of megacity of Sao Paulo. Data collection included epidemiological and autopsy-based approaches. Information was obtained by interviewing the next of kin and through the pathologist's report. The individual index of exposure to carbon-based particles, which we designed as the fraction of black carbon (FBC), was estimated through quantification of particles on the macroscopic lung surface. Myocardium samples were collected for histopathological analysis to evaluate the fraction of cardiac fibrosis. The association between cardiac fibrosis and FBC, age, sex, smoking status and hypertension was assessed by means of multiple linear regression models. Our study demonstrated that the association of FBC with cardiac fibrosis is influenced by smoking status and hypertension. Among hypertensive individuals, the cardiac fibrosis fraction tended to increase with the increase of the FBC in both groups of smokers and non-smokers. In non-hypertensive individuals, the association between cardiac fibrosis fraction and FBC was observed primarily in smokers. Long-term exposure to tobacco smoke and environmental particles may contribute to the cardiac remodeling response in individuals with pre-existing hypertension. This highlights the importance of considering hypertension as an additional risk factor for the health effects of air pollution on the cardiovascular system. Moreover, the study endorses the role of autopsy to investigate the effects of urban environment and personal habits in determining human disease.

Effects of land cover and air pollution on the risk of preterm births

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between gestational age and green areas, urban built areas, and the concentration of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) in the city of São Paulo, analyzing the irregular distribution of these areas and pollution levels above the recommended level.

METHODS

The study population consisted of a cohort of live births from 2012, and data from the Live Birth Information System (Sinasc) of the city of São Paulo were used. Using satellite images and supervised classification, the distribution and quantity of green areas and built areas in the city of São Paulo was obtained, as well as the concentrations of PM2.5. Logistic regressions were used to obtain possible associations.

RESULTS

The results of the study show that a lower percentage of green areas is significantly associated with a higher chance of preterm births. A higher building density was positively associated with the odds ratio for preterm birth. We did not find any significant associations between air pollution (PM2.5) and preterm births.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study show that greener areas are less associated with preterm births when compared with less green areas.

[Childhood obesity risk index (IROBIC) for small administrative areas in Chile]

Introduction

Introduction: although the prevalence of childhood obesity (CO) is high globally, there are no composite indices to estimate territorial aspects associated with its risk Objective: to develop an obesity risk index (IROBIC) for small administrative units, called "comunas" in Chile Methods: we used 2019 data from public sources on children under 10 years living in "comunas" of the two largest regions. IROBIC includes 16 indicators standardized for each "comuna" and grouped together into four domains, determined by principal component analysis (health, socio-economic, built-in and educational environments). IROBIC was calculated as a weighted geometric mean. Differences in obesity risk between the 10 and 5 "comunas" with the highest and lowest IROBIC and of each domain, were calculated with the disparity ratio. Results: in spite of the poorest "comunas" having the highest IROBIC, when its value and that for each domain were considered, we observed that the effect of inequality could be mitigated. The 10 and 5 "comunas" with the highest IROBIC have a 2.41 and 4.05 higher risk of CO compared to those with the lowest values Conclusions: IROBIC is a useful tool for monitoring the risk of CO and its factors from a territorial perspective.

Space-time clusters of cardiovascular mortality and the role of heatwaves and cold spells in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

The effects extreme air temperature events are related with an increase in cardiovascular mortality among vulnerable groups worldwide. Therefore, we identify spatiotemporal mortality clusters associated with diseases of the cardiovascular system among people ≥ 65 years in São Paulo, from 2006 to 2015, and investigate whether high-risk mortality clusters occurred during or following extreme air temperature events. To detect the clusters, we used daily mortality data and a retrospective space-time scan analysis with a discrete Poisson model. Extreme air temperature events were defined by daily mean temperatures, below the 10th percentile for cold spells and above the 90th percentile for heatwaves, with two or more consecutive days. We found statistically significant high-risk mortality clusters located in the peripheral areas. The spatiotemporal clusters of risk areas for cardiovascular and ischemic heart disease occurred during or following cold spell events, whereas those for stroke and ischemic stroke events were related to heatwaves.

Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality by Socioeconomic Level in the State of São Paulo, Brazil 2001-2017

OBJECTIVE

Thyroid cancer is rising largely due to greater detection of indolent or slow-growing tumors; we sought to compare the incidence and mortality profiles of thyroid cancer in the State of São Paulo by socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

Data on thyroid cancer cases diagnosed from 2003 to 2017 in the Barretos Region and from 2001 to 2015 in the municipality of São Paulo were obtained from the respective cancer registries. Corresponding death data were obtained from a Brazilian public government database. Age-standardized rates were calculated and presented as thematic maps. The rates were also calculated by SES and spatial autocorrelation was assessed by global and local indices.

RESULTS

There were 419 cases of thyroid cancer and 21 deaths in Barretos, contrasting with the highly populated São Paulo, with 30 489 cases and 673 deaths. The overall incidence rates in São Paulo (15.9) were three times higher than in Barretos (5.7), while incidence rates in women were close to five times higher in Barretos and four times higher in São Paulo than in men. Mortality rates were, in relative terms, very low in both regions. A clear stepwise gradient of increasing thyroid cancer incidence with increasing SES was observed in São Paulo, with rates in very high SES districts four times those of low SES (31.6 vs 8.1). In contrast, the incidence rates in Barretos presented little variation across SES levels.

CONCLUSION

Thyroid cancer incidence varied markedly by SES in São Paulo, with incidence rates rising with increasing socioeconomic index. Overdiagnosis is likely to account for a large proportion of the thyroid cancer burden in the capital.

Factors associated with the quality of death certification in Brazilian municipalities: A data-driven non-linear model

Studies evaluating the local quality of death certification in Brazil focused on completeness of death reporting or inappropriate coding of causes of death, with few investigating missing data. We aimed to use missing and unexpected values in core topics to assess the quality of death certification in Brazilian municipalities, to evaluate its correlation with the percentage of garbage codes, and to employ a data-driven approach with non-linear models to investigate the association of the socioeconomic and health infrastructure context with quality of death statistics among municipalities. This retrospective study used data from the Mortality Information System (2010-2017), and municipal data regarding healthcare infrastructure, socioeconomic characteristics, and death rates. Quality of death certification was assessed by missing or unexpected values in the following core topics: dates of occurrence, registration, and birth, place of occurrence, certifier, sex, and marital status. Models were fit to classify municipalities according to the quality of death certification (poor quality defined as death records with missing or unexpected values in core topics ≥ 80%). Municipalities with poor quality of death certification (43.9%) presented larger populations, lower death rates, lower socioeconomic index, healthcare infrastructure with fewer beds and physicians, and higher proportion of public healthcare facilities. The correlation coefficients between quality of death certification assessed by missing or unexpected values and the proportion of garbage codes were weak (0.11-0.49), but stronger for municipalities with lower socioeconomic scores. The model that best fitted the data was the random forest classifier (ROC AUC = 0.76; precision-recall AUC = 0.78). This innovative way of assessing the quality of death certification could help quality improvement initiatives to include the correctness of essential fields, in addition to garbage coding or completeness of records, especially in municipalities with lower socioeconomic status where garbage coding and the correctness of core topics appear to be related issues.

Geographic variations in cancer incidence and mortality in the State of São Paulo, Brazil 2001-17

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil and the burden is rising. To better inform tailored cancer actions, we compare incidence and mortality profiles according to small areas in the capital and northeast region of the State of São Paulo for the leading cancer types.

METHODS

New cancer cases were obtained from cancer registries covering the department of Barretos (2003-2017) and the municipality of São Paulo (2001-2015). Cancer deaths for the same period were obtained from a Brazilian public government database. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 persons-years by cancer and sex are presented as thematic maps, by municipality for Barretos region, and by district for São Paulo.

RESULTS

Prostate and breast cancer were the leading forms of cancer incidence in Barretos, with lung cancer leading in terms of cancer mortality in both regions. The highest incidence and mortality rates were seen in municipalities from the northeast of Barretos region in both sexes, while elevated incidence rates were mainly found in São Paulo districts with high and very high socioeconomic status (SES), with mortality rates more dispersed. Breast cancer incidence rates in São Paulo were 30 % higher than Barretos, notably in high and very high SES districts, while corresponding rates of cervical cancer conveyed the opposite profile, with elevated rates in low and medium SES districts.

CONCLUSIONS

There is substantial diversity in the cancer profiles in the two regions, by cancer type and sex, with a clear relation between the cancer incidence and mortality patterns observed at the district level and corresponding SES in the capital.

Cancer inequalities in incidence and mortality in the State of São Paulo, Brazil 2001-17

BACKGROUND

Cancer disparities exist between and within countries; we sought to compare cancer-specific incidence and mortality according to area-level socioeconomic status (SES) in the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

METHODS

Cancer cases diagnosed 2003-2017 in the Barretos region and 2001-2015 in the municipality of São Paulo were obtained from the respective cancer registries. Corresponding cancer deaths were obtained from a Brazilian public government database. Age-standardized rates for all cancer combined and the six most common cancers were calculated by SES quartiles.

RESULTS

There were 14,628 cancer cases and 7513 cancer deaths in Barretos, and 472,712 corresponding cases and 194,705 deaths in São Paulo. A clear SES-cancer gradient was seen in São Paulo, with rates varying from 188.4 to 333.1 in low to high SES areas, respectively. There was a lesser social gradient for mortality, with rates in low to high SES areas ranging from 86.4 to 98.0 in Barretos, and from 99.2 to 100.1 in São Paulo. The magnitude of the incidence rates rose markedly with increasing SES in São Paulo city for colorectal, lung, female breast, and prostate cancer. Conversely, both cervical cancer incidence and mortality rose with lower levels of SES in both regions.

CONCLUSIONS

A clear SES association was seen for cancers of the prostate, female breast, colorectum, and lung for São Paulo. This study offers a better understanding of the cancer incidence and mortality profile according to SES within a highly populated Brazilian state.

Assessing socioeconomic bias of exposure to urban air pollution: an autopsy-based study in São Paulo, Brazil

Background

The characterisation of individual exposure to air pollution in urban scenarios is a challenge in environmental epidemiological studies. We investigated if the city's pollution monitoring stations over or underestimate the exposure of individuals depending on their socioeconomic conditions and daily commuting times.

Methods

The amount of black carbon accumulated in the lungs of 604 deceased who underwent autopsy in São Paulo was considered as a proxy for PM₁₀. The concentrations of PM₁₀ in the residence of the deceased were estimated by interpolating an ordinary kriging model. These two-exposure metrics allowed us to construct an environmental exposure misclassification index ranging from -1 to 1. The association between the index and daily commuting, socioeconomic context index (GeoSES), and street density as predictors was assessed by means of a multilevel linear regression model.

Findings

With a decrease of 0^.1 units in GeoSES, the index increases, on average, by 0^.028 units and with an increase of 1 h in daily commuting, the index increases, on average, by 0^.022 units indicating that individual exposure to air pollution is underestimated in the lower GeoSES and in people with many hours spent in daily commuting.

Interpretation

Reduction of health consequences of air pollution demands not only alternative fuel and more efficient mobility strategies, but also should include profound rethink of cities.

Funding

São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP-13/21728-2) and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq-304126/2015-2, 401825/2020-5).

Overview on and Contextual Determinants of Medical Residencies in North Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyze the scenario of medical residency programs (MRPs) in the north region of Brazil as well as the contextual determinants (socioeconomic, structural, and epidemiological) influencing the number of MRPs in this region. An ecological study was conducted using MRPs data from 2022. This study used multiple data sources. MRP indicators were described based on the Brazilian state and specialty. The dependent variable was the number of MRPs. The independent variables included sociodemographic, structural, and epidemiological factors. Poisson regression was performed to analyze the association between contextual variables and the number of MRPs. The results showed that only 3.6% of the municipalities had authorized MRPs. The idleness rate in the region was 46.0%, with family and community medicine as the specialties with the greatest idleness. The total density of authorized vacancies in the MRPs was 14.0 vacancies per 100,000 inhabitants. The models showed that with each increase of one unit of the vulnerability index (Socioeconomic Index in the Geographic Context for Health Studies-GeoSES), the number of MRPs increased, ranging from 8122 (p value < 0.001) to 11,138 (p value < 0.001). With each increase in undergraduate degrees in medicine, the number of MRPs increased by 0.945 (p value < 0.001). With each increase of 1 physician per 1000 population, the number of MRPs increased from 0.537 (p value < 0.001) to 0.845 (p value < 0.001). With each increase of one unit in general hospitals, specialized hospitals, teaching hospitals, and primary healthcare units, the number of MRPs increased by 0.176 (p value < 0.001), 0.168 (p value < 0.001), 0.022 (p value < 0.001) and 0.032 (p value < 0.001), respectively. Finally, with each increase of one death per 100,000 inhabitants, the overall mortality rate increased, ranging from 0.006 (p value < 0.001) to 0.022 (p value < 0.001). The study showed a low supply of MRPs in the northern region, a high rate of idleness, and important socioeconomic, structural, and epidemiological determinants of the number of MRPs.

Impact of Chemotherapy Regimens on Body Composition of Breast Cancer Women: A Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

This study aimed to investigate the effect of chemotherapy (CT) and its different types of regimens on the anthropometry and body composition of women with breast cancer. Three-hundred-and-four women with breast cancer were enrolled in this multicenter study. The participants were evaluated before the infusion of the first cycle of CT (pre-CT), and until two weeks after CT completion (post-CT), regarding body weight, body mass index (BMI); waist circumference (WC); waist-to-height ratio (WHtR); conicity index (C-index); fat mass index (FMI); and fat-free mass index (FFMI). CT regimens were classified as anthracycline-based (AC—doxorubicin or epirubicin); anthracyclines and taxane (ACT); cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and 5-fluorouracil (CMF); or isolated taxanes (paclitaxel or docetaxel). Women significantly increased BMI and FMI post-CT (p < 0.001 and p = 0.007, respectively). The ACT regimen increased FMI (p < 0.001), while FFMI increased after AC (p = 0.007). It is concluded that the CT negatively impacted body composition and the type of regime had a strong influence. The ACT regimen promoted an increase in FMI compared to other regimens, and the AC increased FFMI. These findings reinforce the importance of nutritional monitoring of breast cancer patients throughout the entire CT treatment.

[Social vulnerability, survival, and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in patients aged 50 years and over: retrospective cohort of cases in Brazil in 2020 and 2021]

The outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection is not only associated with age and comorbidities but is also aggravated by social vulnerability. This study aims to analyze - according to social vulnerability - survival and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in the first 100 days from symptoms to death in individuals aged 50 years or older hospitalized in Brazil. This is a retrospective cohort from Epidemiological Week 11 of 2020 to week 33 of 2021. The Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) provided clinical and epidemiological data. The Geographic Index of the Socioeconomic Context for Health and Social Studies (GeoSES) measured social vulnerability. The Kaplan-Meier curve and the adjusted proportional risk model by Cox were used for survival, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Among the 410,504 cases, overall lethality was of 42.2% in general and 51.4% in the most vulnerable. We found a higher lethality according to worse socioeconomic status in all categories by age group; the double is registered for 50-59 years. The adjusted Cox model showed a 32% increase in risk of death (HR = 1.32; 95%CI: 1.24-1.42). Moreover, men, older adults, black or indigenous adults, with multiple comorbidities, and subjected to invasive ventilation, have a higher risk of death after hospitalization. Intersectoral policy measures need to be targeted to alleviate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic aggravated by social vulnerability.

Construction of an individual socioeconomic status index for analysing inequalities in colorectal cancer screening

OBJECTIVE

To construct an individual socioeconomic status index (ISESI) with information available in the Population Information System of the Region of Valencia, Spain, and use it to analyse inequalities in a colorectal cancer screening programme (CRCSP).

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of men and women aged between 50 and 75 at the time of the study (2020) that were selected from the target population of the Region of Valencia CRCSP. (study sample 1,150,684). First, a multiple correspondence analysis was performed to aggregate information from the Population Information System of the Region of Valencia into an ISESI. Second, data from the 2016 Region of Valencia Health Survey were used for validation, and finally the relationship between CRCSP participation and the ISESI was analysed by logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The variables included in the index were nationality, employment status, disability, healthcare coverage, risk of vulnerability and family size. The most important categories for determining the highest socioeconomic status were being employed and not being at risk of social vulnerability, and being unemployed and at risk of social vulnerability for determining the lowest socioeconomic status. Index validation demonstrated internal and external coherence for measuring socioeconomic status. The relationship between CRCSP participation and the ISESI categorised by quartile (Q) showed that Q4 (the lowest socioeconomic status) was less likely to participate OR = 0.769 (0.757-0.782) than Q1 (the highest socioeconomic status), and the opposite was found for Q2 OR = 1.368 (1.347-1.390) and Q3 OR = 1.156 (1.137-1.175).

CONCLUSIONS

An ISESI was constructed and validated using Population Information System data and made it possible to evaluate inequalities in colorectal cancer screening.

Were the socio-economic determinants of municipalities relevant to the increment of COVID-19 related deaths in Brazil in 2020?

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil has been showing a pattern of distribution of related deaths associated with individual socioeconomic status (SES). However, little is known about the role of SES in the distribution of the mortality rate in different population, from an ecological perspective.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors in the distribution of the COVID-19-related mortality rate among Brazilian municipalities in 2020.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional, observational, population-wide, and ecological study, using data of COVID-19-related deaths from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System database (SIVEP-Gripe) and SES from the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), the Human Development Index (HDI), the Geographic Index of the Socioeconomic Context and Social Studies (GeoSES), and 2010 Demographic Census (IBGE/Brazil). We computed crude, age- and sex-standardized, and the latter offset by the time of exposure to the epidemic mortality rates. To determine socioeconomic factors associated with mortality rates we used log-linear models with state codes as a random effect and Haversine variance-covariance matrix.

RESULTS

191,528 deaths were related to COVID-19 and distributed in 4,928 (88.55%) Brazilian municipalities. Whatever the socioeconomic indexes used, the R2 were very small to explain SMRT. Consistent across all socioeconomic indexes used, high-income, more educated, and well infrastructure municipalities generally had higher mortality rates.

CONCLUSION

Excluding the effect of demographic structure and pandemic timing from mortality rates, the contribution of SES to explain differences in COVID-19-related mortality rates among municipalities in Brazil became very low. The impact of SES on COVID-19-related mortality may vary across levels of aggregation. Urban infrastructure, which includes mobility structures, more complex economic activities and connections, may have influenced the average municipal death rate.

Validation of physician certified verbal autopsy using conventional autopsy: a large study of adult non-external causes of death in a metropolitan area in Brazil

Background

Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard.

Methods

The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level.

Results

There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49.

Conclusions

The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities.

Non-communicable diseases, sociodemographic vulnerability and the risk of mortality in hospitalised children and adolescents with COVID-19 in Brazil: a cross-sectional observational study

OBJECTIVES

To analyse how previous comorbidities, ethnicity, regionality and socioeconomic development are associated with COVID-19 mortality in hospitalised children and adolescents.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study using publicly available data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health.

SETTING

Nationwide.

PARTICIPANTS

5857 patients younger than 20 years old, all of them hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, from 1 January 2020 to 7 December 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We used multilevel mixed-effects generalised linear models to study in-hospital mortality, stratifying the analysis by age, region of the country, presence of non-communicable diseases, ethnicity and socioeconomic development.

RESULTS

Individually, most of the included comorbidities were risk factors for mortality. Notably, asthma was a protective factor (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.67). Having more than one comorbidity increased almost tenfold the odds of death (OR 9.67, 95% CI 6.89 to 13.57). Compared with white children, Indigenous, Pardo (mixed) and East Asian had significantly higher odds of mortality (OR 5.83, 95% CI 2.43 to 14.02; OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.51; OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.02 to 8.71, respectively). We also found a regional influence (higher mortality in the North-OR 3.4, 95% CI 2.48 to 4.65) and a socioeconomic association (lower mortality among children from more socioeconomically developed municipalities-OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.38) CONCLUSIONS: Besides the association with comorbidities, we found ethnic, regional and socioeconomic factors shaping the mortality of children hospitalised with COVID-19 in Brazil. Our findings identify risk groups among children that should be prioritised for public health measures, such as vaccination.

Social inequalities associated with COVID-19 case fatality rate in Fortaleza, Ceará state, Brazil, 2020

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association among social and health inequalities, socioeconomic status, spatial segregation and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) due to COVID-19 in Fortaleza, the state capital of Ceará, Brazil.

METHODS

This was an ecological study of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19. The 119 neighborhoods of Fortaleza were used as units of analysis. Incidence, mortality and apparent CFR indicators due to COVID-19 were calculated between January 1 and June 8, 2020. Socioeconomic indicators were obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. Spatial analysis was performed and local and global Moran's indexes were calculated.

RESULTS

There were 22,830 confirmed cases, 2,333 deaths and the apparent CFR was 12.7% (95% CI 11.6;13.9). Significant spatial autocorrelations between apparent CFR (I=0.35) and extreme poverty (I=0.51), overlapping in several neighborhoods of the city, were found.

CONCLUSION

The apparent CFR due to COVID-19 is associated with the worst socioeconomic and health status, which shows the relationship between social inequalities and health outcomes in times of pandemic.

Seasonality and weather dependance of Acinetobacter baumannii complex bloodstream infections in different climates in Brazil

Recent studies report seasonality in healthcare-associated infections, especially those caused by Acinetobacter baumannii complex. We conducted an ecologic study aimed at analyzing the impact of seasons, weather parameters and climate control on the incidence and carbapenem-resistance in A. baumannii complex bloodstream infections (ABBSI) in hospitals from regions with different climates in Brazil. We studied monthly incidence rates (years 2006–2015) of ABBSI from hospitals in cities from different macro-regions in Brazil: Fortaleza (Ceará State, Northeast region), Goiânia (Goiás State, Middle-west) and Botucatu (São Paulo State, Southeast). Box-Jenkins models were fitted to assess seasonality, and the impact of weather parameters was analyzed in Poisson Regression models. Separate analyses were performed for carbapenem-resistant versus carbapenem-susceptible isolates, as well as for infections occurring in climate-controlled intensive care units (ICUs) versus non-climate-controlled wards. Seasonality was identified for ABSSI ICUs in the Hospitals from Botucatu and Goiânia. In the Botucatu hospital, where there was overall seasonality for both resistance groups, as well as for wards without climate control. In that hospital, the overall incidence was associated with higher temperature (incidence rate ratio for each Celsius degree, 1.05; 95% Confidence Interval, 1.01–1.09; P = 0.006). Weather parameters were not associated with ABBSI in the hospitals from Goiânia and Fortaleza. In conclusion, seasonality was found in the hospitals with higher ABBSI incidence and located in regions with greater thermal amplitude. Strict temperature control may be a tool for prevention of A. baumanii infections in healthcare settings.

A seroprevalence survey of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among individuals 18 years of age or older living in a vulnerable region of the city of São Paulo, Brazil

A second wave of COVID-19 has demonstrated how challenging it will be to achieve sustained control of the disease, even with vaccination underway in many countries. Therefore, it remains relevant to keep improving our understanding of the distribution of COVID-19, especially of asymptomatic individuals, among different populations, and particularly in vulnerable regions. Hence, this population-based serosurvey had the objective of estimating the prevalence of individuals 18 years of age or older infected by SARS-CoV-2, and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals, among a vulnerable population living in an urban setting. This was a cross-sectional single-stage cluster sampling serosurvey conducted between September and December of 2019, in a vulnerable region of the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Families covered by three public primary healthcare units represented the selected clusters. After study inclusion, participants were asked about signs and symptoms related to COVID-19, and had collected 10 mL of blood for serology testing. A total of 272 individuals from 185 families were included in the study, out of the 400 eligible individuals for inclusion, resulting in a non-response rate of 32%. The post stratified prevalence of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 was 45.2% (95% CI: 39.4–51.0%), with a proportion of asymptomatic cases of 30.2% (95% CI: 23.3–38.0%). This population-based serosurvey identified a greater prevalence of infected individuals by SARS-CoV-2 compared to data from the beginning of the pandemic, and from a recent citywide serosurvey, with a similar proportion of asymptomatic individuals. It demonstrated the value of primary healthcare services for disease surveillance activities, and the importance of more focused serosurveys, especially in vulnerable locations, and the need to evaluate new surveillance strategies to take into account asymptomatic cases.

Geographic access to COVID-19 healthcare in Brazil using a balanced float catchment area approach

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the world has raised concerns about the responsiveness of cities and healthcare systems during pandemics. Recent studies try to model how the number of COVID-19 infections will likely grow and impact the demand for hospitalization services at national and regional levels. However, less attention has been paid to the geographic access to COVID-19 healthcare services and to hospitals' response capacity at the local level, particularly in urban areas in the Global South. This paper shows how transport accessibility analysis can provide actionable information to help improve healthcare coverage and responsiveness. It analyzes accessibility to COVID-19 healthcare at high spatial resolution in the 20 largest cities of Brazil. Using network-distance metrics, we estimate the vulnerable population living in areas with poor access to healthcare facilities that could either screen or hospitalize COVID-19 patients. We then use a new balanced floating catchment area (BFCA) indicator to estimate spatial, income, and racial inequalities in access to hospitals with intensive care unit (ICU) beds and mechanical ventilators while taking into account congestion effects. Based on this analysis, we identify substantial social and spatial inequalities in access to health services during the pandemic. The availability of ICU equipment varies considerably between cities, and it is substantially lower among black and poor communities. The study maps territorial inequalities in healthcare access and reflects on different policy lessons that can be learned for other countries based on the Brazilian case.

A comparison of two neighborhood-level socioeconomic indexes in the United States

socioeconomic indexes that capture information about wealth, education, employment, and housing are in wide use in public health. Here we compare the widely used Area Deprivation Index (ADI) to the Yost index. Though they are derived largely from the same data, there are substantial differences between the two. Examination of the geographic areas where the two indexes are most dissimilar suggest that the Yost index has greater face validity and that the ADI is highly sensitive to locations with incomplete census data and with census data containing outliers.

Spatiotemporal ecological study of COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil: Shifting of the high mortality risk from areas with the best to those with the worst socio-economic conditions

BACKGROUND

Currently, Brazil is experiencing one of the fastest increasing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) mortality rates worldwide, with a minimum of 158,000 confirmed deaths presently. The city of São Paulo is particularly vulnerable because it is the most populated city in Brazil. Thus, this study aimed to analyse COVID-19 mortality in a spatiotemporal context in São Paulo, with respect to socio-economic levels.

METHOD

We modelled the deaths using spatiotemporal architectures and Poisson probability distributions using a latent Gaussian Bayesian model approach.

RESULTS

Both total deaths and confirmed deaths showed similar spatial patterns. Mortality was higher in men and increased with age. The most critical period regarding mortality occurred between the 20th and 23rd epidemiological weeks, followed by an apparent stabilisation of the epidemiological trend. The risk of death was greater in areas with the worst social conditions during the study period. However, this pattern was not uniform over time, since we identified a shift of high risk from the areas with the best socio-economic conditions to those with the worst conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study corroborated the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and socio-economic conditions, revealing the importance of geographic screening in the integration of better actions to face the pandemic.

Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data

Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreover, the mathematical modelling of the pandemic generally. We determine epidemiological distributions for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using a large dataset (N = 21 000 - 157 000) from the Brazilian Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe database. A joint Bayesian subnational model with partial pooling is used to simultaneously describe the 26 states and one federal district of Brazil, and shows significant variation in the mean of the symptom-onset-to-death time, with ranges between 11.2 and 17.8 days across the different states, and a mean of 15.2 days for Brazil. We find strong evidence in favour of specific probability density function choices: for example, the gamma distribution gives the best fit for onset-to-death and the generalized lognormal for onset-to-hospital-admission. Our results show that epidemiological distributions have considerable geographical variation, and provide the first estimates of these distributions in a low and middle-income setting. At the subnational level, variation in COVID-19 outcome timings are found to be correlated with poverty, deprivation and segregation levels, and weaker correlation is observed for mean age, wealth and urbanicity.

Spatio-temporal modeling of visceral leishmaniasis in Midwest Brazil: An ecological study of 18-years data (2001-2018)

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected vector-borne disease associated with socioeconomic and environmental issues. In Brazil, epidemics of VL have occurred in major cities since 1980. Applied models for medical and epidemiological research have been used to assess the distribution and characteristics of disease endpoints and identify and characterize potential risk factors. This study described the demographic features of VL and modeled the spatio-temporal distribution of human VL cases and their relationship with underlying predicitve factors using generalized additive models. We conducted an ecological study covering an 18-year period from the first report of an autochthonous case of VL in Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, in 2001 to 2018. The urban area of the city has 74 neighborhoods, and they were the units of analysis of our work. Socioeconomic and demographic data available from Brazilian public databases were considered as covariables. A total of 1,855 VL cases were reported during the study period, with an annual mean incidence rate of 13.23 cases per 100,000 population and a cumulative crude incidence of 235.77 per 100,000 population. The results showed the rapid transition from epidemic to endemic and the centrifugal dispersal pattern of the disease. Moreover, the model highlighted that the urban quality of life index, which is calculated based on income, education, housing conditions, and environmental sanitation data, plays a role in VL occurrence. Our findings highlighted the potential for improving spatio-temporal segmentation of control measures and the cost-effectiveness of integrated disease management programs as soon as VL is difficult to control and prevent and has rapid geographical dispersion and increased incidence rates.