Modeling intra-mosquito dynamics of Zika virus and its dose-dependence confirms the low epidemic potential of Aedes albopictus

Investigating the dose-dependency of the midgut escape barrier using a mechanistic model of within-mosquito dengue virus population dynamics

Arboviruses can emerge rapidly and cause explosive epidemics of severe disease. Some of the most epidemiologically important arboviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), Chikungunya (CHIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, most notably Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. After a mosquito blood feeds on an infected host, virus enters the midgut and infects the midgut epithelium. The virus must then overcome a series of barriers before reaching the mosquito saliva and being transmitted to a new host. The virus must escape from the midgut (known as the midgut escape barrier; MEB), which is thought to be mediated by transient changes in the permeability of the midgut-surrounding basal lamina layer (BL) following blood feeding. Here, we present a mathematical model of the within-mosquito population dynamics of DENV (as a model system for mosquito-borne viruses more generally) that includes the interaction of the midgut and BL which can account for the MEB. Our results indicate a dose-dependency of midgut establishment of infection as well as rate of escape from the midgut: collectively, these suggest that the extrinsic incubation period (EIP)-the time taken for DENV virus to be transmissible after infection-is shortened when mosquitoes imbibe more virus. Additionally, our experimental data indicate that multiple blood feeding events, which more closely mimic mosquito-feeding behavior in the wild, can hasten the course of infections, and our model predicts that this effect is sensitive to the amount of virus imbibed. Our model indicates that mutations to the virus which impact its replication rate in the midgut could lead to even shorter EIPs when double-feeding occurs. Mechanistic models of within-vector viral infection dynamics provide a quantitative understanding of infection dynamics and could be used to evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito stages of the infection.

Arbovirus impact on mosquito behavior: the jury is still out

Parasites can manipulate host behavior to enhance transmission, but our understanding of arbovirus-induced changes in mosquito behavior is limited. Here, we explore current knowledge on such behavioral alterations in mosquito vectors, focusing on host-seeking and blood-feeding behaviors. Reviewing studies on dengue, Zika, La Crosse, Sindbis, and West Nile viruses in Aedes or Culex mosquitoes reveals subtle yet potentially significant effects. However, assay heterogeneity and limited sample sizes challenge definitive conclusions. To enhance robustness, we propose using deep-learning tools for automated behavior quantification and stress the need for standardized assays. Additionally, conducting longitudinal studies across the extrinsic incubation period and integrating diverse traits into modeling frameworks are crucial for understanding the nuanced implications of arbovirus-induced behavioral changes for virus transmission dynamics.

Trade-offs shaping transmission of sylvatic dengue and Zika viruses in monkey hosts

Mosquito-borne dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses originated in Old World sylvatic (forest) cycles involving monkeys and canopy-living Aedes mosquitoes. Both viruses spilled over into human transmission and were translocated to the Americas, opening a path for spillback into Neotropical sylvatic cycles. Studies of the trade-offs that shape within-host dynamics and transmission of these viruses are lacking, hampering efforts to predict spillover and spillback. We infected a native, Asian host species (cynomolgus macaque) and a novel, American host species (squirrel monkey) with sylvatic strains of DENV-2 or ZIKV via mosquito bite. We then monitored aspects of viral replication (viremia), innate and adaptive immune response (natural killer (NK) cells and neutralizing antibodies, respectively), and transmission to mosquitoes. In both hosts, ZIKV reached high titers that translated into high transmission to mosquitoes; in contrast DENV-2 replicated to low levels and, unexpectedly, transmission occurred only when serum viremia was below or near the limit of detection. Our data reveal evidence of an immunologically-mediated trade-off between duration and magnitude of virus replication, as higher peak ZIKV titers are associated with shorter durations of viremia, and higher NK cell levels are associated with lower peak ZIKV titers and lower anti-DENV-2 antibody levels. Furthermore, patterns of transmission of each virus from a Neotropical monkey suggest that ZIKV has greater potential than DENV-2 to establish a sylvatic transmission cycle in the Americas.

The effect of demographic stochasticity on Zika virus transmission dynamics: Probability of disease extinction, sensitivity analysis, and mean first passage time

Viral infections spread by mosquitoes are a growing threat to human health and welfare. Zika virus (ZIKV) is one of them and has become a global worry, particularly for women who are pregnant. To study ZIKV dynamics in the presence of demographic stochasticity, we consider an established ZIKV transmission model that takes into consideration the disease transmission from human to mosquito, mosquito to human, and human to human. In this study, we look at the local stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibriums. By conducting the sensitivity analysis both locally and globally, we assess the effect of the model parameters on the model outcomes. In this work, we use the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) process to develop and analyze a stochastic model. The main distinction between deterministic and stochastic models is that, in the absence of any preventive measures such as avoiding travel to infected areas, being careful from mosquito bites, taking precautions to reduce the risk of sexual transmission, and seeking medical care for any acute illness with a rash or fever, the stochastic model shows the possibility of disease extinction in a finite amount of time, unlike the deterministic model shows disease persistence. We found that the numerically estimated disease extinction probability agrees well with the analytical probability obtained from the Galton-Watson branching process approximation. We have discovered that the disease extinction probability is high if the disease emerges from infected mosquitoes rather than infected humans. In the context of the stochastic model, we derive the implicit equation of the mean first passage time, which computes the average amount of time needed for a system to undergo its first state transition.

Quantifying the relationship between within-host dynamics and transmission for viral diseases of livestock

Understanding the population dynamics of an infectious disease requires linking within-host dynamics and between-host transmission in a quantitative manner, but this is seldom done in practice. Here a simple phenomenological model for viral dynamics within a host is linked to between-host transmission by assuming that the probability of transmission is related to log viral titre. Data from transmission experiments for two viral diseases of livestock, foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle and swine influenza virus in pigs, are used to parametrize the model and, importantly, test the underlying assumptions. The model allows the relationship between within-host parameters and transmission to be determined explicitly through their influence on the reproduction number and generation time. Furthermore, these critical within-host parameters (time and level of peak titre, viral growth and clearance rates) can be computed from more complex within-host models, raising the possibility of assessing the impact of within-host processes on between-host transmission in a more detailed quantitative manner.

Engineered Antiviral Sensor Targets Infected Mosquitoes

Escalating vector disease burdens pose significant global health risks, as such innovative tools for targeting mosquitoes are critical. CRISPR-Cas technologies have played a crucial role in developing powerful tools for genome manipulation in various eukaryotic organisms. Although considerable efforts have focused on utilizing class II type II CRISPR-Cas9 systems for DNA targeting, these modalities are unable to target RNA molecules, limiting their utility against RNA viruses. Recently, the Cas13 family has emerged as an efficient tool for RNA targeting; however, the application of this technique in mosquitoes, particularly Aedes aegypti, has yet to be fully realized. In this study, we engineered an antiviral strategy termed REAPER (vRNA Expression Activates Poisonous Effector Ribonuclease) that leverages the programmable RNA-targeting capabilities of CRISPR-Cas13 and its potent collateral activity. REAPER remains concealed within the mosquito until an infectious blood meal is uptaken. Upon target viral RNA infection, REAPER activates, triggering programmed destruction of its target arbovirus such as chikungunya. Consequently, Cas13-mediated RNA targeting significantly reduces viral replication and viral prevalence of infection, and its promiscuous collateral activity can even kill infected mosquitoes within a few days. This innovative REAPER technology adds to an arsenal of effective molecular genetic tools to combat mosquito virus transmission.

Mechanistic modelling of within-mosquito viral dynamics: Insights into infection and dissemination patterns

Vector or host competence can be defined as the ability of an individual to become infected and subsequently transmit a pathogen. Assays to measure competence play a key part in the assessment of the factors affecting mosquito-borne virus transmission and of potential pathogen-blocking control tools for these viruses. For mosquitoes, competence for arboviruses can be measured experimentally and results are usually analysed using standard statistical approaches. Here we develop a mechanistic approach to studying within-mosquito virus dynamics that occur during vector competence experiments. We begin by developing a deterministic model of virus replication in the mosquito midgut and subsequent escape and replication in the hemocoel. We then extend this to a stochastic model to capture the between-individual variation observed in vector competence experiments. We show that the dose-response of the probability of mosquito midgut infection and variation in the dissemination rate can be explained by stochastic processes generated from a small founding population of virions, caused by a relatively low rate of virion infection of susceptible cells. We also show that comparing treatments or species in competence experiments by fitting mechanistic models could provide further insight into potential differences. Generally, our work adds to the growing body of literature emphasizing the importance of intrinsic stochasticity in biological systems.

Investigating the dose-dependency of the midgut escape barrier using a mechanistic model of within-mosquito dengue virus population dynamics

Flaviviruses are arthropod-borne (arbo)viruses which can emerge rapidly and cause explosive epidemics of severe disease. Some of the most epidemiologically important flaviviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, most notably Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. After a mosquito blood feeds on an infected host, virus enters the midgut and infects the midgut epithelium. The virus must then overcome a series of barriers before reaching the mosquito saliva and being transmitted to a new host. The virus must escape from the midgut (known as the midgut escape barrier; MEB), which is thought to be mediated by transient changes in the permeability of the midgut-surrounding basal lamina layer (BL) following blood feeding. Here, we present a mathematical model of the within-mosquito population dynamics of flaviviruses that includes the interaction of the midgut and BL which can account for the MEB. Our results indicate a dose-dependency of midgut establishment of infection as well as rate of escape from the midgut: collectively, these suggest that the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) - the time taken for DENV virus to be transmissible after infection - is shortened when mosquitoes imbibe more virus. Additionally, our experimental data indicates that multiple blood feeding events, which more closely mimic mosquito-feeding behavior in the wild, can hasten the course of infections, and our model predicts that this effect is sensitive to the amount of virus imbibed. Our model indicates that mutations to the virus which impact its replication rate in the midgut could lead to even shorter EIPs when double-feeding occurs. Mechanistic models of within-vector viral infection dynamics provide a quantitative understanding of infection dynamics and could be used to evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito stages of the infection.

Author summary

Aedes mosquitoes are the main vectors of dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), all of which can cause severe disease in humans with dengue alone infecting an estimated 100-400 million people each year. Understanding the processes that affect whether, and at which rate, mosquitoes may transmit such viruses is, hence, paramount. Here, we present a mathematical model of virus dynamics within infected mosquitoes. By combining the model with novel experimental data, we show that the course of infection is sensitive to the initial dose of virus ingested by the mosquito. The data also indicates that mosquitoes which blood feed subsequent to becoming infected may be able to transmit infection earlier, which is reproduced in the model. This is important as many mosquito species feed multiple times during their lifespan and, any reduction in time to dissemination will increase the number of days that a mosquito is infectious and so enhance the risk of transmission. Our study highlights the key and complementary roles played by mathematical models and experimental data for understanding within-mosquito virus dynamics.

Assessment of the Risk of Exotic Zika Virus Strain Transmission by Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus from Senegal Compared to a Native Strain

Zika virus (ZIKV) shows an enigmatic epidemiological profile in Africa. Despite its frequent detection in mosquitoes, few human cases have been reported. This could be due to the low infectious potential or low virulence of African ZIKV lineages. This study sought to assess the susceptibility of A. aegypti and C. quinquefasciatus to ZIKV strains from Senegal, Brazil, and New Caledonia. Vertical transmission was also investigated. Whole bodies, legs/wings and saliva samples were tested for ZIKV by real-time PCR to estimate infection, dissemination and transmission rates as well as the infection rate in the progeny of infected female A. aegypti. For A. aegypti, the Senegalese strain showed at 15 days post-exposure (dpe) a significantly higher infection rate (52.43%) than the Brazilian (10%) and New Caledonian (0%) strains. The Brazilian and Senegalese strains were disseminated but not detected in saliva. No A. aegypti offspring from females infected with Senegalese and Brazilian ZIKV strains tested positive. No infection was recorded for C. quinquefasciatus. We observed the incompetence of Senegalese A. aegypti to transmit ZIKV and the C. quinquefasciatus were completely refractory. The effect of freezing ZIKV had no significant impact on the vector competence of Aedes aegypti from Senegal, and vertical transmission was not reported in this study.

Modeling cellular co-infection and reassortment of bluetongue virus in Culicoides midges

When related segmented RNA viruses co-infect a single cell, viral reassortment can occur, potentially leading to new strains with pandemic potential. One virus capable of reassortment is bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes substantial health impacts in ruminants and is transmitted via Culicoides midges. Because midges can become co-infected by feeding on multiple different host species and remain infected for their entire life span, there is a high potential for reassortment to occur. Once a midge is co-infected, additional barriers must be crossed for a reassortant virus to emerge, such as cellular co-infection and dissemination of reassortant viruses to the salivary glands. We developed three mathematical models of within-midge BTV dynamics of increasing complexity, allowing us to explore the conditions leading to the emergence of reassortant viruses. In confronting the simplest model with published data, we estimate that the average life span of a bluetongue virion in the midge midgut is about 6 h, a key determinant of establishing a successful infection. Examination of the full model, which permits cellular co-infection and reassortment, shows that small differences in fitness of the two infecting strains can have a large impact on the frequency with which reassortant virions are observed. This is consistent with experimental co-infection studies with BTV strains with different relative fitnesses that did not produce reassortant progeny. Our models also highlight several gaps in existing data that would allow us to elucidate these dynamics in more detail, in particular the times it takes the virus to disseminate to different tissues, and measurements of viral load and reassortant frequency at different temperatures.

Heterogeneity of Rift Valley fever virus transmission potential across livestock hosts, quantified through a model-based analysis of host viral load and vector infection

Quantifying the variation of pathogens’ life history traits in multiple host systems is crucial to understand their transmission dynamics. It is particularly important for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), which are prone to infecting several species of vertebrate hosts. Here, we focus on how host-pathogen interactions determine the ability of host species to transmit a virus to susceptible vectors upon a potentially infectious contact. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral, vector-borne, zoonotic disease, chosen as a case study. The relative contributions of livestock species to RVFV transmission has not been previously quantified. To estimate their potential to transmit the virus over the course of their infection, we 1) fitted a within-host model to viral RNA and infectious virus measures, obtained daily from infected lambs, calves, and young goats, 2) estimated the relationship between vertebrate host infectious titers and probability to infect mosquitoes, and 3) estimated the net infectiousness of each host species over the duration of their infectious periods, taking into account different survival outcomes for lambs. Our results indicate that the efficiency of viral replication, along with the lifespan of infectious particles, could be sources of heterogeneity between hosts. Given available data on RVFV competent vectors, we found that, for similar infectious titers, infection rates in the Aedes genus were on average higher than in the Culex genus. Consequently, for Aedes-mediated infections, we estimated the net infectiousness of lambs to be 2.93 (median) and 3.65 times higher than that of calves and goats, respectively. In lambs, we estimated the overall infectiousness to be 1.93 times higher in individuals which eventually died from the infection than in those recovering. Beyond infectiousness, the relative contributions of host species to transmission depend on local ecological factors, including relative abundances and vector host-feeding preferences. Quantifying these contributions will ultimately help design efficient, targeted, surveillance and vaccination strategies.

Viruses spread by mosquitoes present a major threat to animal and public health worldwide. When these pathogenic viruses can infect multiple species, controlling their spread becomes difficult. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is such a virus. It spreads predominantly among ruminant livestock but can also spill over and cause severe disease in humans. Understanding which of these ruminant species are most important for the transmission of RVFV can help for effective control. One piece of this puzzle is to assess how effective infected animals are at transmitting RVFV to mosquitoes. To answer this question, we combine mathematical models with observations from experimental infections in cattle, sheep, and goats, and model changes in viremia over time within individuals. We then quantify the relationship between hosts’ viremia and the probability to infect mosquitoes. In combining these two analyses, we estimate the overall transmission potential of sheep, when in contact with mosquitoes, to be 3 to 5 times higher than that of goats and cattle. Further, sheep that experience a lethal infection have an even larger overall transmission potential. Once applied at the level of populations, with setting-specific herd composition and exposure to mosquitoes, these results will help unravel species’ role in RVF outbreaks.

A review exploring the overarching burden of Zika virus with emphasis on epidemiological case studies from Brazil

This paper explores the main factors for mosquito-borne transmission of the Zika virus by focusing on environmental, anthropogenic, and social risks. A literature review was conducted bringing together related information from this genre of research from peer-reviewed publications. It was observed that environmental conditions, especially precipitation, humidity, and temperature, played a role in the transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors including sanitation, urbanization, and environmental pollution promote the transmission by affecting the mosquito density. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as poverty as well as social inequality and low-quality housing have also an impact since these are social factors that limit access to certain facilities or infrastructure which, in turn, promote transmission when absent (e.g., piped water and screened windows). Finally, the paper presents short-, mid-, and long-term preventative solutions together with future perspectives. This is the first review exploring the effects of anthropogenic aspects on Zika transmission with a special emphasis in Brazil.

Lack of Association between Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Zika Antibodies among Pregnant Women in Thailand between 1997 and 2015

Data about Zika virus infection and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Southeast Asia are scarce. We conducted an unmatched case-control study of Zika virus (ZIKV) serology in pregnant women enrolled in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV) perinatal prevention trials between 1997 and 2015 in Thailand. Case and control groups included women with and without adverse pregnancy outcomes. Plasma samples collected during the last trimester of pregnancy were tested for ZIKV IgG/IgM and Dengue IgG/IgM (Euroimmun, AG, Germany). Case newborn plasma samples were tested for ZIKV IgM and ZIKV RNA (Viasure, Spain). The case group included women with stillbirth (n = 22) or whose infants had microcephaly (n = 4), a head circumference below the first percentile (n = 14), neurological disorders (n = 36), or had died within 10 days after birth (n = 11). No women in the case group were positive for ZIKV IgM, and none of their live-born neonates were positive for ZIKV IgM or ZIKV RNA. The overall ZIKV IgG prevalence was 29%, 24% in the case and 34% in the control groups (Fisher's exact test; p = 0.13), while the dengue IgG seroprevalence was 90%. Neither neonatal ZIKV infections nor ZIKV-related adverse pregnancy outcomes were observed in these women with HIV and/or HBV during the 18-year study period.

Experimental infections with Zika virus strains reveal high vector competence of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti populations from Gabon (Central Africa) for the African virus lineage

The two main Zika virus (ZIKV) vectors, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti (invasive and native species, respectively), are present in Gabon (Central Africa). The aim of this study was to determine the entomological ZIKV risk associated with these mosquito species in Gabon by evaluating their vector competence for an African (i.e. representative of the endemic strains circulating in sub-Saharan Africa) and two Asian (i.e. representatives of exogenous epidemic strains that could be introduced) ZIKV strains. The transmission efficiency of one Ae. aegypti and two Ae. albopictus field-collected populations from Libreville and Franceville was assayed at day 7, 14 and 21 after experimental oral infection. The two mosquito species could transmit all three ZIKV strains already at day 7 post-infection, but transmission efficiency was higher for the African strain than the non-African strains (>60% versus <14%; incubation period of 14–21 days). The two mosquito species exhibited comparable vector competence for ZIKV, although the amount of viral particles (African strain) in saliva was significantly higher in Ae. albopictus than Ae. aegypti at day 14 post-infection. These findings suggest that overall, ZIKV risk in Gabon is mainly related to virus strains that circulate endemically across sub-Saharan Africa, although the transmission of non-African strains remain possible in case of introduction. Due to its high infestation indexes and ecological/geographical ranges, this risk appears mainly associated with Ae. albopictus. Vector surveillance and control methods against this invasive mosquito must be strengthened in the region to limit the risk of future outbreaks.