Deep mutational scans of XBB.1.5 and BQ.1.1 reveal ongoing epistatic drift during SARS-CoV-2 evolution

SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, kinetics, and evolution: A narrative review

Since winter 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has emerged, spread, and evolved all around the globe. We explore 4 y of evolutionary epidemiology of this virus, ranging from the applied public health challenges to the more conceptual evolutionary biology perspectives. Through this review, we first present the spread and lethality of the infections it causes, starting from its emergence in Wuhan (China) from the initial epidemics all around the world, compare the virus to other betacoronaviruses, focus on its airborne transmission, compare containment strategies ("zero-COVID" vs. "herd immunity"), explain its phylogeographical tracking, underline the importance of natural selection on the epidemics, mention its within-host population dynamics. Finally, we discuss how the pandemic has transformed (or should transform) the surveillance and prevention of viral respiratory infections and identify perspectives for the research on epidemiology of COVID-19.

Host genotype and sex shape influenza evolution and defective viral genomes

Viral evolution during initial pandemic waves favors mutations that enhance replication and transmission over antigenic escape. Host genotype and sex strongly shape this early adaptation, yet their individual and combined effects remain unclear. We experimentally adapted influenza A virus to male and female BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, generating 28 independent lineages, and employed a novel 'rolling sphere' approach to identify mutational hotspots in three-dimensional protein structures. In BALB/c mice, adaptation favored nonsynonymous substitutions linked to increased virulence, including a hemagglutinin variant exclusively fixed in female lineages. It also revealed the first demonstration of sex-dependent selection shaping a viral protein interface. In female-adapted viruses, substitutions disrupting a key NS1 dimerization motif converged on a single residue, while in male-adapted viruses, they were dispersed across the same interface. Conversely, adaptation to C57BL/6 resulted in fewer substitutions but promoted defective viral genome formation, leading to reduced cytopathic effect and attenuated virulence. This provides the first in vivo evidence that host genotype alone can modulate defective viral genome formation. Our results offer critical insights into host-pathogen interactions and reveal that selective pressures imposed by specific genotype-sex combinations can increase virulence across host genotypes, enabling new epidemiological modeling and disease control strategies.

A protein language model for exploring viral fitness landscapes

Successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants lead to repeated epidemic surges through escalated fitness (i.e., relative effective reproduction number between variants). Modeling the genotype-fitness relationship enables us to pinpoint the mutations boosting viral fitness and flag high-risk variants immediately after their detection. Here, we present CoVFit, a protein language model adapted from ESM-2, designed to predict variant fitness based solely on spike protein sequences. CoVFit was trained on genotype-fitness data derived from viral genome surveillance and functional mutation assays related to immune evasion. CoVFit successively ranked the fitness of unknown future variants harboring nearly 15 mutations with informative accuracy. CoVFit identified 959 fitness elevation events throughout SARS-CoV-2 evolution until late 2023. Furthermore, we show that CoVFit is applicable for predicting viral evolution through single amino acid mutations. Our study gives insight into the SARS-CoV-2 fitness landscape and provides a tool for efficiently identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher epidemic risk.

Balancing stability and function: impact of the surface charge of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron spike protein

The ectodomain of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 spike has an increased positive surface charge, favoring binding to the host cell surface, but may affect the stability of the ectodomain. Thermal stability studies identified two transitions associated with the flexibility of the receptor binding domain and the unfolding of the whole ectodomain, respectively. Despite destabilizing effects of some mutations, compensatory mutations maintain ECD stability and functional advantages thus supporting viral fitness.

Preemptive optimization of a clinical antibody for broad neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants and robustness against viral escape

Most previously authorized clinical antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have lost neutralizing activity to recent variants due to rapid viral evolution. To mitigate such escape, we preemptively enhance AZD3152, an antibody authorized for prophylaxis in immunocompromised individuals. Using deep mutational scanning (DMS) on the SARS-CoV-2 antigen, we identify AZD3152 vulnerabilities at antigen positions F456 and D420. Through two iterations of computational antibody design that integrates structure-based modeling, machine-learning, and experimental validation, we co-optimize AZD3152 against 24 contemporary and previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as 20 potential future escape variants. Our top candidate, 3152-1142, restores full potency (100-fold improvement) against the more recently emerged XBB.1.5+F456L variant that escaped AZD3152, maintains potency against previous variants of concern, and shows no additional vulnerability as assessed by DMS. This preemptive mitigation demonstrates a generalizable approach for optimizing existing antibodies against potential future viral escape.

The Compensatory Effect of S375F on S371F Is Vital for Maintaining the Infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants

The emergence of Omicron variants dramatically changed the transmission rate and infection characteristics compared to previously prevalent strains, primarily due to spike protein mutations. However, the impact of individual mutations remained unclear. Here, we used virus-like particle (VLP) pseudotyped to investigate the functional contributions by 12 common mutations in the spike protein. We found that the S371F mutation in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of spike protein led to a 5- and 10-fold decrease of ACE2 utilization efficiency and viral infectivity, respectively, accompanied by a 5- to 11-fold reduction of neutralization sensitivity to monoclonal antibodies. However, the S375F mutation in the RBD had a compensatory effect, rescuing the infectivity of the S371F Omicron variant. Based on molecular dynamics simulations, we proposed a "tug of war" model to explain this compensation phenomenon. These results provide a comprehensive and dynamic perspective on the evolution of this important pandemic virus.

Epistatic hotspots organize antibody fitness landscape and boost evolvability

The course of evolution is strongly shaped by interaction between mutations. Such epistasis can yield rugged sequence-function maps and constrain the availability of adaptive paths. While theoretical intuition is often built on global statistics of large, homogeneous model landscapes, mutagenesis measurements necessarily probe a limited neighborhood of a reference genotype. It is unclear to what extent local topography of a real epistatic landscape represents its global shape. Here, we demonstrate that epistatic landscapes can be heterogeneously rugged and this heterogeneity may render biomolecules more evolvable. By characterizing a multipeaked fitness landscape of a SARS-CoV-2 antibody mutant library, we show that heterogeneous ruggedness arises from sparse epistatic hotspots, whose mutation impacts the fitness effect of numerous sequence sites. Surprisingly, mutating an epistatic hotspot may enhance, rather than reduce, the accessibility of the fittest genotype, while increasing the overall ruggedness. Further, migratory constraints in real space alleviate mutational constraints in sequence space, which not only diversify direct paths taken but may also turn a road-blocking fitness peak into a stepping stone leading toward the global optimum. Our results suggest that a hierarchy of epistatic hotspots may organize the fitness landscape in such a way that path-orienting ruggedness confers global smoothness.

Evolving antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 antigenic shift from XBB to JN.1

The continuous evolution of SARS-CoV-2, particularly the emergence of the BA.2.86/JN.1 lineage replacing XBB, necessitates re-evaluation of vaccine compositions1-3. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the humoral immune response to XBB and JN.1 human exposure. We demonstrate the antigenic distinctiveness of XBB and JN.1 lineages in SARS-CoV-2-naive individuals and show that infection with JN.1 elicits superior plasma neutralization against its subvariants. We highlight the strong immune evasion and receptor-binding capability of KP.3, supporting its foreseeable prevalence. Extensive analysis of the B cell receptor repertoire, in which we isolate approximately 2,000 receptor-binding-domain-specific antibodies, with targeting epitopes characterized by deep mutational scanning, underscores the superiority of JN.1-elicited memory B cells4,5. Class 1 IGHV3-53/3-66-derived neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) are important contributors to the wild-type reactivity of NAbs against JN.1. However, KP.2 and KP.3 evade a substantial subset of these antibodies, even those induced by JN.1, supporting a need for booster updates. JN.1-induced Omicron-specific antibodies also demonstrate high potency across Omicron. Escape hotspots for these NAbs have already been mutated, resulting in a higher immune barrier to escape and indicating probable recovery of escaped NAbs. In addition, the prevalence of IGHV3-53/3-66-derived antibodies and their ability to compete with all Omicron-specific NAbs suggests that they have an inhibitory effect on the activation of Omicron-specific naive B cells, potentially explaining the heavy immune imprinting in mRNA-vaccinated individuals6-8. These findings delineate the evolving antibody response to the antigenic shift of Omicron from XBB to JN.1 and highlight the importance of developing the JN.1 lineage, especially KP.2- and KP.3-based vaccine boosters.

Deep mutation, insertion and deletion scanning across the Enterovirus A proteome reveals constraints shaping viral evolution

Insertions and deletions (InDels) are essential to protein evolution. In RNA viruses, InDels contribute to the emergence of viruses with new phenotypes, including altered host engagement and tropism. However, the tolerance of viral proteins for InDels has not been extensively studied. Here, we conduct deep mutational scanning to map and quantify the mutational tolerance of a complete viral proteome to insertion, deletion and substitution. We engineered approximately 45,000 insertions, 6,000 deletions and 41,000 amino acid substitutions across the nearly 2,200 coding positions of the Enterovirus A71 proteome, quantifying their effects on viral fitness by population sequencing. The vast majority of InDels are lethal to the virus, tolerated at only a few hotspots. Some of these hotspots overlap with sites of host recognition and immune engagement, suggesting tolerance at these sites reflects the important role InDels have played in the past phenotypic diversification of Enterovirus A.

A potent pan-sarbecovirus neutralizing antibody resilient to epitope diversification

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolution has resulted in viral escape from clinically authorized monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), creating a need for mAbs that are resilient to epitope diversification. Broadly neutralizing coronavirus mAbs that are sufficiently potent for clinical development and retain activity despite viral evolution remain elusive. We identified a human mAb, designated VIR-7229, which targets the viral receptor-binding motif (RBM) with unprecedented cross-reactivity to all sarbecovirus clades, including non-ACE2-utilizing bat sarbecoviruses, while potently neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 variants since 2019, including the recent EG.5, BA.2.86, and JN.1. VIR-7229 tolerates extraordinary epitope variability, partly attributed to its high binding affinity, receptor molecular mimicry, and interactions with RBM backbone atoms. Consequently, VIR-7229 features a high barrier for selection of escape mutants, which are rare and associated with reduced viral fitness, underscoring its potential to be resilient to future viral evolution. VIR-7229 is a strong candidate to become a next-generation medicine.

Preventing future zoonosis: SARS-CoV-2 mutations enhance human-animal cross-transmission

The COVID-19 pandemic has driven substantial evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, yielding subvariants that exhibit enhanced infectiousness in humans. However, this adaptive advantage may not universally extend to zoonotic transmission. In this work, we hypothesize that viral adaptations favoring animal hosts do not necessarily correlate with increased human infectivity. In addition, we consider the potential for gain-of-function mutations that could facilitate the virus's rapid evolution in humans following adaptation in animal hosts. Specifically, we identify the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) mutations that enhance human-animal cross-transmission. To this end, we construct a multitask deep learning model, MT-TopLap trained on multiple deep mutational scanning datasets, to accurately predict the binding free energy changes upon mutation for the RBD to ACE2 of various species, including humans, cats, bats, deer, and hamsters. By analyzing these changes, we identified key RBD mutations such as Q498H in SARS-CoV-2 and R493K in the BA.2 variant that are likely to increase the potential for human-animal cross-transmission.

Mosaic sarbecovirus nanoparticles elicit cross-reactive responses in pre-vaccinated animals

Immunization with mosaic-8b (nanoparticles presenting 8 SARS-like betacoronavirus [sarbecovirus] receptor-binding domains [RBDs]) elicits more broadly cross-reactive antibodies than homotypic SARS-CoV-2 RBD-only nanoparticles and protects against sarbecoviruses. To investigate original antigenic sin (OAS) effects on mosaic-8b efficacy, we evaluated the effects of prior COVID-19 vaccinations in non-human primates and mice on anti-sarbecovirus responses elicited by mosaic-8b, admix-8b (8 homotypics), or homotypic SARS-CoV-2 immunizations, finding the greatest cross-reactivity for mosaic-8b. As demonstrated by molecular fate mapping, in which antibodies from specific cohorts of B cells are differentially detected, B cells primed by WA1 spike mRNA-LNP dominated antibody responses after RBD-nanoparticle boosting. While mosaic-8b- and homotypic-nanoparticles boosted cross-reactive antibodies, de novo antibodies were predominantly induced by mosaic-8b, and these were specific for variant RBDs with increased identity to RBDs on mosaic-8b. These results inform OAS mechanisms and support using mosaic-8b to protect COVID-19-vaccinated/infected humans against as-yet-unknown SARS-CoV-2 variants and animal sarbecoviruses with human spillover potential.

Deep mutational scanning of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 and epistatic emergence of the KP.3 variant

Deep mutational scanning experiments aid in the surveillance and forecasting of viral evolution by providing prospective measurements of mutational effects on viral traits, but epistatic shifts in the impacts of mutations can hinder viral forecasting when measurements were made in outdated strain backgrounds. Here, we report measurements of the impact of all single amino acid mutations on ACE2-binding affinity and protein folding and expression in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike receptor-binding domain. As with other SARS-CoV-2 variants, we find a plastic and evolvable basis for receptor binding, with many mutations at the ACE2 interface maintaining or even improving ACE2-binding affinity. Despite its large genetic divergence, mutational effects in BA.2.86 have not diverged greatly from those measured in its Omicron BA.2 ancestor. However, we do identify strong positive epistasis among subsequent mutations that have accrued in BA.2.86 descendants. Specifically, the Q493E mutation that decreased ACE2-binding affinity in all previous SARS-CoV-2 backgrounds is reversed in sign to enhance human ACE2-binding affinity when coupled with L455S and F456L in the currently emerging KP.3 variant. Our results point to a modest degree of epistatic drift in mutational effects during recent SARS-CoV-2 evolution but highlight how these small epistatic shifts can have important consequences for the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Deep mutational scanning of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 and epistatic emergence of the KP.3 variant

Deep mutational scanning experiments aid in the surveillance and forecasting of viral evolution by providing prospective measurements of mutational effects on viral traits, but epistatic shifts in the impacts of mutations can hinder viral forecasting when measurements were made in outdated strain backgrounds. Here, we report measurements of the impact of all single amino acid mutations on ACE2-binding affinity and protein folding and expression in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD). As with other SARS-CoV-2 variants, we find a plastic and evolvable basis for receptor binding, with many mutations at the ACE2 interface maintaining or even improving ACE2-binding affinity. Despite its large genetic divergence, mutational effects in BA.2.86 have not diverged greatly from those measured in its Omicron BA.2 ancestor. However, we do identify strong positive epistasis among subsequent mutations that have accrued in BA.2.86 descendants. Specifically, the Q493E mutation that decreased ACE2-binding affinity in all previous SARS-CoV-2 backgrounds is reversed in sign to enhance human ACE2-binding affinity when coupled with L455S and F456L in the currently emerging KP.3 variant. Our results point to a modest degree of epistatic drift in mutational effects during recent SARS-CoV-2 evolution but highlight how these small epistatic shifts can have important consequences for the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Atomistic Prediction of Structures, Conformational Ensembles and Binding Energetics for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3 Variants Using AlphaFold2 and Molecular Dynamics Simulations: Mutational Profiling and Binding Free Energy Analysis Reveal Epistatic Hotspots of the ACE2 Affinity and Immune Escape

The most recent wave of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants descending from BA.2 and BA.2.86 exhibited improved viral growth and fitness due to convergent evolution of functional hotspots. These hotspots operate in tandem to optimize both receptor binding for effective infection and immune evasion efficiency, thereby maintaining overall viral fitness. The lack of molecular details on structure, dynamics and binding energetics of the latest FLiRT and FLuQE variants with the ACE2 receptor and antibodies provides a considerable challenge that is explored in this study. We combined AlphaFold2-based atomistic predictions of structures and conformational ensembles of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike complexes with the host receptor ACE2 for the most dominant Omicron variants JN.1, KP.1, KP.2 and KP.3 to examine the mechanisms underlying the role of convergent evolution hotspots in balancing ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. Using the ensemble-based mutational scanning of the spike protein residues and computations of binding affinities, we identified binding energy hotspots and characterized molecular basis underlying epistatic couplings between convergent mutational hotspots. The results suggested that the existence of epistatic interactions between convergent mutational sites at L455, F456, Q493 positions that enable to protect and restore ACE2 binding affinity while conferring beneficial immune escape. To examine immune escape mechanisms, we performed structure-based mutational profiling of the spike protein binding with several classes of antibodies that displayed impaired neutralization against BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. The results confirmed the experimental data that JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3 harboring the L455S and F456L mutations can significantly impair the neutralizing activity of class-1 monoclonal antibodies, while the epistatic effects mediated by F456L can facilitate the subsequent convergence of Q493E changes to rescue ACE2 binding. Structural and energetic analysis provided a rationale to the experimental results showing that BD55-5840 and BD55-5514 antibodies that bind to different binding epitopes can retain neutralizing efficacy against all examined variants BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. The results support the notion that evolution of Omicron variants may favor emergence of lineages with beneficial combinations of mutations involving mediators of epistatic couplings that control balance of high ACE2 affinity and immune evasion.

Mapping mutational fitness effects across the coxsackievirus B3 proteome reveals distinct profiles of mutation tolerability

RNA viruses have notoriously high mutation rates due to error-prone replication by their RNA polymerase. However, natural selection concentrates variability in a few key viral proteins. To test whether this stems from different mutation tolerance profiles among viral proteins, we measured the effect of >40,000 non-synonymous mutations across the full proteome of coxsackievirus B3 as well as >97% of all possible codon deletions in the nonstructural proteins. We find significant variation in mutational tolerance within and between individual viral proteins, which correlated with both general and protein-specific structural and functional attributes. Furthermore, mutational fitness effects remained stable across cell lines, suggesting selection pressures are mostly conserved across environments. In addition to providing a rich dataset for understanding virus biology and evolution, our results illustrate that incorporation of mutational tolerance data into druggable pocket discovery can aid in selecting targets with high barriers to drug resistance.

Spike deep mutational scanning helps predict success of SARS-CoV-2 clades

SARS-CoV-2 variants acquire mutations in the spike protein that promote immune evasion1 and affect other properties that contribute to viral fitness, such as ACE2 receptor binding and cell entry2,3. Knowledge of how mutations affect these spike phenotypes can provide insight into the current and potential future evolution of the virus. Here we use pseudovirus deep mutational scanning4 to measure how more than 9,000 mutations across the full XBB.1.5 and BA.2 spikes affect ACE2 binding, cell entry or escape from human sera. We find that mutations outside the receptor-binding domain (RBD) have meaningfully affected ACE2 binding during SARS-CoV-2 evolution. We also measure how mutations to the XBB.1.5 spike affect neutralization by serum from individuals who recently had SARS-CoV-2 infections. The strongest serum escape mutations are in the RBD at sites 357, 420, 440, 456 and 473; however, the antigenic effects of these mutations vary across individuals. We also identify strong escape mutations outside the RBD; however, many of them decrease ACE2 binding, suggesting they act by modulating RBD conformation. Notably, the growth rates of human SARS-CoV-2 clades can be explained in substantial part by the measured effects of mutations on spike phenotypes, suggesting our data could enable better prediction of viral evolution.

Exploring conformational landscapes and binding mechanisms of convergent evolution for the SARS-CoV-2 spike Omicron variant complexes with the ACE2 receptor using AlphaFold2-based structural ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations

In this study, we combined AlphaFold-based approaches for atomistic modeling of multiple protein states and microsecond molecular simulations to accurately characterize conformational ensembles evolution and binding mechanisms of convergent evolution for the SARS-CoV-2 spike Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.75, BA.3, BA.4/BA.5 and BQ.1.1. We employed and validated several different adaptations of the AlphaFold methodology for modeling of conformational ensembles including the introduced randomized full sequence scanning for manipulation of sequence variations to systematically explore conformational dynamics of Omicron spike protein complexes with the ACE2 receptor. Microsecond atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a detailed characterization of the conformational landscapes and thermodynamic stability of the Omicron variant complexes. By integrating the predictions of conformational ensembles from different AlphaFold adaptations and applying statistical confidence metrics we can expand characterization of the conformational ensembles and identify functional protein conformations that determine the equilibrium dynamics for the Omicron spike complexes with the ACE2. Conformational ensembles of the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes obtained using AlphaFold-based approaches for modeling protein states and MD simulations are employed for accurate comparative prediction of the binding energetics revealing an excellent agreement with the experimental data. In particular, the results demonstrated that AlphaFold-generated extended conformational ensembles can produce accurate binding energies for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. The results of this study suggested complementarities and potential synergies between AlphaFold predictions of protein conformational ensembles and MD simulations showing that integrating information from both methods can potentially yield a more adequate characterization of the conformational landscapes for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. This study provides insights in the interplay between conformational dynamics and binding, showing that evolution of Omicron variants through acquisition of convergent mutational sites may leverage conformational adaptability and dynamic couplings between key binding energy hotspots to optimize ACE2 binding affinity and enable immune evasion.

Mosaic sarbecovirus nanoparticles elicit cross-reactive responses in pre-vaccinated animals

Immunization with mosaic-8b [60-mer nanoparticles presenting 8 SARS-like betacoronavirus (sarbecovirus) receptor-binding domains (RBDs)] elicits more broadly cross-reactive antibodies than homotypic SARS-CoV-2 RBD-only nanoparticles and protects against sarbecoviruses. To investigate original antigenic sin (OAS) effects on mosaic-8b efficacy, we evaluated effects of prior COVID-19 vaccinations in non-human primates and mice on anti-sarbecovirus responses elicited by mosaic-8b, admix-8b (8 homotypics), or homotypic SARS-CoV-2 immunizations, finding greatest cross-reactivity for mosaic-8b. As demonstrated by molecular fate-mapping in which antibodies from specific cohorts of B cells are differentially detected, B cells primed by WA1 spike mRNA-LNP dominated antibody responses after RBD-nanoparticle boosting. While mosaic-8b- and homotypic-nanoparticles boosted cross-reactive antibodies, de novo antibodies were predominantly induced by mosaic-8b, and these were specific for variant RBDs with increased identity to RBDs on mosaic-8b. These results inform OAS mechanisms and support using mosaic-8b to protect COVID-19 vaccinated/infected humans against as-yet-unknown SARS-CoV-2 variants and animal sarbecoviruses with human spillover potential.

AlphaFold2 Predictions of Conformational Ensembles and Atomistic Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike XBB Lineages Reveal Epistatic Couplings between Convergent Mutational Hotspots that Control ACE2 Affinity

In this study, we combined AlphaFold-based atomistic structural modeling, microsecond molecular simulations, mutational profiling, and network analysis to characterize binding mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein with the host receptor ACE2 for a series of Omicron XBB variants including XBB.1.5, XBB.1.5+L455F, XBB.1.5+F456L, and XBB.1.5+L455F+F456L. AlphaFold-based structural and dynamic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Spike XBB lineages can accurately predict the experimental structures and characterize conformational ensembles of the spike protein complexes with the ACE2. Microsecond molecular dynamics simulations identified important differences in the conformational landscapes and equilibrium ensembles of the XBB variants, suggesting that combining AlphaFold predictions of multiple conformations with molecular dynamics simulations can provide a complementary approach for the characterization of functional protein states and binding mechanisms. Using the ensemble-based mutational profiling of protein residues and physics-based rigorous calculations of binding affinities, we identified binding energy hotspots and characterized the molecular basis underlying epistatic couplings between convergent mutational hotspots. Consistent with the experiments, the results revealed the mediating role of the Q493 hotspot in the synchronization of epistatic couplings between L455F and F456L mutations, providing a quantitative insight into the energetic determinants underlying binding differences between XBB lineages. We also proposed a network-based perturbation approach for mutational profiling of allosteric communications and uncovered the important relationships between allosteric centers mediating long-range communication and binding hotspots of epistatic couplings. The results of this study support a mechanism in which the binding mechanisms of the XBB variants may be determined by epistatic effects between convergent evolutionary hotspots that control ACE2 binding.

Predicting Functional Conformational Ensembles and Binding Mechanisms of Convergent Evolution for SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron Variants Using AlphaFold2 Sequence Scanning Adaptations and Molecular Dynamics Simulations

In this study, we combined AlphaFold-based approaches for atomistic modeling of multiple protein states and microsecond molecular simulations to accurately characterize conformational ensembles and binding mechanisms of convergent evolution for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.75, BA.3, BA.4/BA.5 and BQ.1.1. We employed and validated several different adaptations of the AlphaFold methodology for modeling of conformational ensembles including the introduced randomized full sequence scanning for manipulation of sequence variations to systematically explore conformational dynamics of Omicron Spike protein complexes with the ACE2 receptor. Microsecond atomistic molecular dynamic simulations provide a detailed characterization of the conformational landscapes and thermodynamic stability of the Omicron variant complexes. By integrating the predictions of conformational ensembles from different AlphaFold adaptations and applying statistical confidence metrics we can expand characterization of the conformational ensembles and identify functional protein conformations that determine the equilibrium dynamics for the Omicron Spike complexes with the ACE2. Conformational ensembles of the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes obtained using AlphaFold-based approaches for modeling protein states and molecular dynamics simulations are employed for accurate comparative prediction of the binding energetics revealing an excellent agreement with the experimental data. In particular, the results demonstrated that AlphaFold-generated extended conformational ensembles can produce accurate binding energies for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. The results of this study suggested complementarities and potential synergies between AlphaFold predictions of protein conformational ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations showing that integrating information from both methods can potentially yield a more adequate characterization of the conformational landscapes for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. This study provides insights in the interplay between conformational dynamics and binding, showing that evolution of Omicron variants through acquisition of convergent mutational sites may leverage conformational adaptability and dynamic couplings between key binding energy hotspots to optimize ACE2 binding affinity and enable immune evasion.