Postdischarge Mortality Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa

Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis

In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0-6 and 6-60 months) were conducted between 2012-2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74-0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72-0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness.

Methods

Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975.

Findings

Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity.

Interpretation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation.

Funding

No specific funding was received.

Verbal Autopsy to Assess Postdischarge Mortality in Children With Suspected Sepsis in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Reducing child mortality in low-income countries is constrained by a lack of vital statistics. In the absence of such data, verbal autopsies provide an acceptable method to determining attributable causes of death. The objective was to assess potential causes of pediatric postdischarge mortality in children younger than age 5 years (under-5) originally admitted for suspected sepsis using verbal autopsies.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of verbal autopsy data from children admitted to 6 hospitals across Uganda from July 2017 to March 2020. Structured verbal autopsy interviews were conducted for all deaths within 6 months after discharge. Two physicians independently classified a primary cause of death, up to 4 alternative causes, and up to 5 contributing conditions using the Start-Up Mortality List, with discordance resolved by consensus.

RESULTS

Verbal autopsies were completed for 361 (98.6%) of the 366 (5.9%) children who died among 6191 discharges (median admission age: 5.4 months [interquartile range, 1.8-16.7]; median time to mortality: 28 days [interquartile range, 9-74]). Most deaths (62.3%) occurred in the community. Leading primary causes of death, assigned in 356 (98.6%) of cases, were pneumonia (26.2%), sepsis (22.1%), malaria (8.5%), and diarrhea (7.9%). Common contributors to death were malnutrition (50.5%) and anemia (25.7%). Reviewers were less confident in their causes of death for neonates than older children (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Postdischarge mortality frequently occurred in the community in children admitted for suspected sepsis in Uganda. Analyses of the probable causes for these deaths using verbal autopsies suggest potential areas for interventions, focused on early detection of infections, as well as prevention and treatment of underlying contributors such as malnutrition and anemia.

Provider adherence to clinical care recommendations for infants and children who died in seven low- and middle-income countries in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network

Background

Most childhood deaths globally are considered preventable through high-quality clinical care, which includes adherence to clinical care recommendations. Our objective was to describe adherence to World Health Organization recommendations for the management of leading causes of death among children.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study examining clinical data for children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized and died in a Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) catchment, December 2016-June 2021. Catchment areas included: Baliakandi and Faridpur, Bangladesh; Kersa, Haramaya, and Harar, Ethiopia; Kisumu and Siaya, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça and Quelimane, Mozambique; Makeni, Sierra Leone; Soweto, South Africa. We reviewed medical records of those who died from lower respiratory tract infections, sepsis, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases to determine the proportion who received recommended treatments and compared adherence by hospitalization duration.

Findings

CHAMPS enrolled 460 hospitalized children who died from the leading causes (median age 12 months, 53.0% male). Median hospital admission was 31 h. There were 51.0% (n = 127/249) of children who died from lower respiratory tract infections received supplemental oxygen. Administration of intravenous fluids for sepsis (15.9%, n = 36/226) and supplemental feeds for malnutrition (14.0%, n = 18/129) were uncommon. There were 51.4% (n = 55/107) of those who died from malaria received antimalarials. Of the 80 children who died from diarrheal diseases, 76.2% received intravenous fluids. Those admitted for ≥24 h more commonly received antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis, supplemental feeds for malnutrition, and intravenous fluids for sepsis than those admitted <24 h.

Interpretation

Provision of recommended clinical care for leading causes of death among young children was suboptimal. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for deficits in clinical care recommendation adherence.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality after hospital discharge among children younger than 5 years admitted with suspected sepsis in Uganda: a prospective, multisite, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Substantial mortality occurs after hospital discharge in children younger than 5 years with suspected sepsis, especially in low-income countries. A better understanding of its epidemiology is needed for effective interventions to reduce child mortality in these countries. We evaluated risk factors for death after discharge in children admitted to hospital for suspected sepsis in Uganda, and assessed how these differed by age, time of death, and location of death.

METHODS

In this prospective, multisite, observational cohort study, we recruited and consecutively enrolled children aged 0-60 months admitted with suspected sepsis from the community to the paediatric wards of six Ugandan hospitals. Suspected sepsis was defined as the need for admission due to a suspected or proven infectious illness. At admission, trained study nurses systematically collected data on clinical variables, sociodemographic variables, and baseline characteristics with encrypted study tablets. Participants were followed up for 6 months after discharge by field officers who contacted caregivers at 2 months and 4 months after discharge by telephone and at 6 months after discharge in person to measure vital status, health-care seeking after discharge, and readmission details. We assessed 6-month mortality after hospital discharge among those discharged alive, with verbal autopsies conducted for children who had died after hospital discharge.

FINDINGS

Between July 13, 2017, and March 30, 2020, 16 991 children were screened for eligibility. 6545 children (2927 [44·72%] female children and 3618 [55·28%] male children) were enrolled and 6191 were discharged from hospital alive. 6073 children (2687 [44·2%] female children and 3386 [55·8%] male children) completed follow-up. 366 children died in the 6-month period after discharge (weighted mortality rate 5·5%). Median time from discharge to death was 28 days (IQR 9-74). For the 360 children for whom location of death was documented, deaths occurred at home (162 [45·0%]), in transit to care (66 [18·3%]), or in hospital (132 [36·7%]) during a subsequent readmission. Death after hospital discharge was strongly associated with weight-for-age Z scores less than -3 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 4·7, 95% CI 3·7-5·8 vs a Z score of >-2), discharge or referral to a higher level of care (7·3, 5·6-9·5), and unplanned discharge (3·2, 2·5-4·0). Hazard ratios (HRs) for severe anaemia (<7g/dL) increased with time since discharge, from 1·7 (95% CI 0·9-3·0) for death occurring in the first time tertile to 5·2 (3·1-8·5) in the third time tertile. HRs for some discharge vulnerabilities decreased significantly with increasing time since discharge, including unplanned discharge (from 4.5 [2·9-6·9] in the first tertile to 2·0 [1·3-3·2] in the third tertile) and poor feeding status (from 7·7 [5·4-11·0] to 1·84 [1·0-3·3]). Age interacted with several variables, including reduced weight-for-age Z score, severe anaemia, and reduced admission temperature.

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric mortality following hospital discharge after suspected sepsis is common, with diminishing, although persistent, risk during the first 6 months after discharge. Efforts to improve outcomes after hospital discharge are crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (ending preventable childhood deaths under age 5 years).

FUNDING

Grand Challenges Canada, Thrasher Research Fund, BC Children's Hospital Foundation, and Mining4Life.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

BACKGROUND

There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

OBJECTIVES

We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32).

CONCLUSION

Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: A protocol for an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

More than 50 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, are not on course to meet the neonatal and under-five mortality target set by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the year 2030. One important, yet neglected, aspect of child mortality rates is deaths occurring during the post-discharge period. For children living in resource-poor countries, the rate of post-discharge mortality within the first several months after discharge is often as high as the rates observed during the initial admission period. This has generally been observed within the context of acute illness and has been closely linked to underlying conditions such as malnutrition, HIV, and anemia. These post-discharge mortality rates tend to be underreported and present a major oversight in the efforts to reduce overall child mortality. This review will explore recurrent illness following discharge through determination of rates of, and risk factors for, pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor settings.

METHODS

Eligible studies will be retrieved using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases. Only studies with a post-discharge observation period of more than 7 days following discharge will be eligible for inclusion. Secondary outcomes will include post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, overall readmission rates, pooled estimates of risk factors (e.g. admission details vs discharge factors, clinical vs social factors), pooled post-discharge mortality Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and outcomes by disease subgroups (e.g. malnutrition, anemia, general admissions). A narrative description of the included studies will be synthesized to categorize commonly affected patient population categories and a random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted to quantify overall post-discharge mortality rates at the 6-month time point.

DISCUSSION

Post-discharge mortality contributes to global child mortality rates with a greater burden of deaths occurring in resource-poor settings. Literature concentrated on child mortality published over the last decade has expanded to focus on the fatal outcomes of children post-discharge and associated risk factors. The results from this systematic review will inform current policy and interventions on the epidemiological burden of post-discharge mortality and morbidity following acute illness among children living in resource-poor settings.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration ID: CRD42022350975.

Prognostic accuracy of biomarkers of immune and endothelial activation in Mozambican children hospitalized with pneumonia

Pneumonia is a leading cause of child mortality. However, currently we lack simple, objective, and accurate risk-stratification tools for pediatric pneumonia. Here we test the hypothesis that measuring biomarkers of immune and endothelial activation in children with pneumonia may facilitate the identification of those at risk of death. We recruited children <10 years old fulfilling WHO criteria for pneumonia and admitted to the Manhiça District Hospital (Mozambique) from 2010 to 2014. We measured plasma levels of IL-6, IL-8, Angpt-2, sTREM-1, sFlt-1, sTNFR1, PCT, and CRP at admission, and assessed their prognostic accuracy for in-hospital, 28-day, and 90-day mortality. Healthy community controls, within same age strata and location, were also assessed. All biomarkers were significantly elevated in 472 pneumonia cases versus 80 controls (p<0.001). IL-8, sFlt-1, and sTREM-1 were associated with in-hospital mortality (p<0.001) and showed the best discrimination with AUROCs of 0.877 (95% CI: 0.782 to 0.972), 0.832 (95% CI: 0.729 to 0.935) and 0.822 (95% CI: 0.735 to 0.908), respectively. Their performance was superior to CRP, PCT, oxygen saturation, and clinical severity scores. IL-8, sFlt-1, and sTREM-1 remained good predictors of 28-day and 90-day mortality. These findings suggest that measuring IL-8, sFlt-1, or sTREM-1 at hospital presentation can guide risk-stratification of children with pneumonia, which could enable prioritized care to improve survival and resource allocation.

Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa

Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5-year old children after hospitalised SMA. We fitted the model to a multicentre clinical PDMC trial using Bayesian methods and modelled the potential impact of PDMC across malaria-endemic African countries. In the 20 highest-burden countries, we estimate that only 2-5 children need to be given PDMC to prevent one hospitalised malaria episode, and less than 100 to prevent one death. If all hospitalised SMA cases access PDMC in moderate-to-high transmission areas, 38,600 (range 16,900-88,400) malaria-associated readmissions could be prevented annually, depending on access to hospital care. We estimate that recurrent SMA post-discharge constitutes 19% of all SMA episodes in moderate-to-high transmission settings.

Performance of host-response biomarkers to risk-stratify children with pneumonia in Bhutan

Pneumonia is the leading cause of post-neonatal death amongst children under five years of age; however, there is no simple triage tool to identify children at risk of progressing to severe and fatal disease. Such a tool could assist for early referral and prioritization of care to improve outcomes and enhance allocation of scarce resources. We compared the performance of inflammatory and endothelial activation markers in addition to clinical signs or scoring scales to risk-stratify children hospitalized with pneumonia at the national referral hospital of Bhutan with the goal of predicting clinical outcome. Of 118 children, 31 evolved to a poor prognosis, defined as either mortality, admission in the paediatric intensive care unit, requirement of chest drainage or requirement of more than five days of oxygen therapy. Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM-1) was the best performing biomarker and performed better than clinical parameters. sTREM-1 levels upon admission had good predictive accuracy to identify children with pneumonia at risk of poor prognosis. Our findings confirm that immune and endothelial activation markers could be proactively used at first encounter as risk-stratification and clinical decision-making tools in children with pneumonia; however, further external validation is needed.

Post-discharge morbidity and mortality in children admitted with severe anaemia and other health conditions in malaria-endemic settings in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe anaemia is associated with high in-hospital mortality among young children. In malaria-endemic areas, surviving children also remain at increased risk of mortality for several months after hospital discharge. We aimed to compare the risks of morbidity and mortality among children discharged from hospital after recovery from severe anaemia versus other health conditions in malaria-endemic settings in Africa.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central from inception to Nov 30, 2021, without language restrictions, for prospective or retrospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials that followed up children younger than 15 years for defined periods after hospital discharge in malaria-endemic countries in Africa. We excluded the intervention groups in trials and studies or subgroups involving children with sickle cell anaemia, malignancies, or surgery or trauma, or those reporting follow-up data that were combined with the in-hospital period. Two independent reviewers extracted the data and assessed the quality and risk of bias using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale or the Cochrane Collaboration's tool. The coprimary outcomes were all-cause death and all-cause readmissions 6 months after discharge. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017079282.

FINDINGS

Of 2930 articles identified in our search, 27 studies were included. For children who were recently discharged following hospital admission with severe anaemia, all-cause mortality by 6 months was higher than during the in-hospital period (n=5 studies; Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio 1·72, 95% CI 1·22-2·44; p=0·0020; I²=51·5%) and more than two times higher than children previously admitted without severe anaemia (n=4 studies; relative risk [RR] 2·69, 95% CI 1·59-4·53; p<0·0001; I²=69·2%). Readmissions within 6 months of discharge were also more common in children admitted with severe anaemia than in children admitted with other conditions (n=1 study; RR 3·05, 1·12-8·35; p<0·0001). Children admitted with severe acute malnutrition (regardless of severe anaemia) also had a higher 6-month mortality after discharge than those admitted for other reasons (n=2 studies; RR=3·12, 2·02-4·68; p<0·0001; I²=54·7%). Other predictors of mortality after discharge included discharge against medical advice, HIV, bacteraemia, and hypoxia.

INTERPRETATION

In malaria-endemic settings in Africa, children admitted to hospital with severe anaemia and severe acute malnutrition are at increased risk of mortality in the first 6 months after discharge compared with children admitted with other health conditions. Improved strategies are needed for the management of these high-risk groups during the period after discharge.

FUNDING

Research Council of Norway and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Childhood mortality during and after acute illness in Africa and south Asia: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mortality among children with acute illness in low-income and middle-income settings remains unacceptably high and the importance of post-discharge mortality is increasingly recognised. We aimed to explore the epidemiology of deaths among young children with acute illness across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to inform the development of interventions and improved guidelines.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children aged 2-23 months with acute illness, stratified by nutritional status defined by anthropometry (ie, no wasting, moderate wasting, or severe wasting or kwashiorkor), who were admitted to one of nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia between Nov 20, 2016, and Jan 31, 2019. We assisted sites to comply with national guidelines. Co-primary outcomes were mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and post-discharge mortality within 180 days of hospital discharge. A priori exposure domains, including demographic, clinical, and anthropometric characteristics at hospital admission and discharge, as well as child, caregiver, and household-level characteristics, were examined in regression and survival structural equation models.

FINDINGS

Of 3101 children (median age 11 months [IQR 7-16]), 1120 (36·1%) had no wasting, 763 (24·6%) had moderate wasting, and 1218 (39·3%) had severe wasting or kwashiorkor. Of 350 (11·3%) deaths overall, 234 (66·9%) occurred within 30 days of hospital admission and 168 (48·0%) within 180 days of hospital discharge. 90 (53·6%) post-discharge deaths occurred at home. The proportion of children who died following discharge was relatively preserved across nutritional strata. Numerically large high-risk and low-risk groups could be disaggregated for early mortality and post-discharge mortality. Structural equation models identified direct pathways to mortality and multiple socioeconomic, clinical, and nutritional domains acting indirectly through anthropometric status.

INTERPRETATION

Among diverse sites in Africa and south Asia, almost half of mortality occurs following hospital discharge. Despite being highly predictable, these deaths are not addressed in current guidelines. A fundamental shift to a child-centred, risk-based approach to inpatient and post-discharge management is needed to further reduce childhood mortality, and clinical trials of these approaches with outcomes of mortality, readmission, and cost are warranted.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antimicrobial resistance including Extended Spectrum Beta Lactamases (ESBL) among E. coli isolated from kenyan children at hospital discharge

Background

Children who have been discharged from hospital in sub-Saharan Africa remain at substantial risk of mortality in the post-discharge period. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) may be an important factor. We sought to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with AMR in commensal Escherichia coli(E. coli) from Kenyan children at the time of discharge.

Methodology/Principle findings

Fecal samples were collected from 406 children aged 1–59 months in western Kenya at the time of discharge from hospital and cultured for E. coli. Susceptibility to ampicillin, ceftriaxone, cefotaxime, ceftazidime, cefoxitin, imipenem, ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, combined amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, azithromycin, and chloramphenicol was determined by disc diffusion according to guidelines from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). Poisson regression was used to determine associations between participant characteristics and the presence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) producing E. coli. Non-susceptibility to ampicillin (95%), gentamicin (44%), ceftriaxone (46%), and the presence of ESBL (44%) was high. Receipt of antibiotics during the hospitalization was associated with the presence of ESBL (aPR = 2.23; 95% CI: 1.29–3.83) as was being hospitalized within the prior year (aPR = 1.32 [1.07–1.69]). Open defecation (aPR = 2.02; 95% CI: 1.39–2.94), having a toilet shared with other households (aPR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.17–1.89), and being female (aPR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.15–1.76) were associated with carriage of ESBL E. coli

Conclusions/Significance

AMR is common among isolates of E. coli from children at hospital discharge in Kenya, including nearly half having detectable ESBL.

Children who have been hospitalized in sub-Saharan Africa remain at a high risk of death and morbidity for at least 6 months following discharge. These children may harbor AMR in commensal bacteria following hospitalization, which may be associated with poor outcomes. There are limited data describing AMR and risk factors that are associated with AMR carriage at hospital discharge. In this cross-sectional study of Kenyan children under 5 years of age discharged from hospitals, we found AMR to be high. Children who received antibiotics in the hospital, had limited access to improved sanitation, and who were female had the highest prevalence of ESBL-producing E. coli.

Outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The identification and appropriate management of people with advanced HIV disease is a key component in the HIV response. People with HIV who are hospitalised are at a higher risk of death, a risk that might persist after discharge. The aims of this study were to estimate the frequency of negative post-discharge outcomes, and to determine risk factors for such outcomes in people with HIV.

Methods

Using a broad search strategy combining terms for hospital discharge and HIV infection, we searched MEDLINE via PubMed and Embase from Jan 1, 2003 to Nov 30, 2021 to identify studies reporting outcomes among people with HIV following discharge from hospital. We estimated pooled proportions of readmissions and deaths after hospital discharge using random-effects models. We also did subgroup analyses by setting, region, duration of follow-up, and advanced HIV status at admission, and sensitivity analyses to assess heterogeneity.

Findings

We obtained data from 29 cohorts, which reported outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge in 92 781 patients. The pooled proportion of patients readmitted to hospital after discharge was 18·8% (95% CI 15·3–22·3) and 14·1% (10·8–17·3) died post-discharge. In sensitivity analyses, no differences were identified in the proportion of patients who were readmitted or died when comparing studies published before 2016 with those published after 2016. Post-discharge mortality was higher in studies from Africa (23·1% [16·5–29·7]) compared with the USA (7·5% [4·4–10·6]). For studies that reported both post-discharge mortality and readmission, the pooled proportion of patients who had this composite adverse outcome was 31·7% (23·9–39·5). Heterogeneity was moderate, and largely explained by patient status and linkage to care. Reported risk factors for readmission included low CD4 cell count at admission, longer length of stay, discharge against medical advice, and not linking to care following discharge; inpatient treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) during hospitalisation was protective of post-discharge mortality.

Interpretation

More than a quarter of patients with HIV had an adverse outcome after hospital discharge with no evidence of improvement in the past 15 years. This systematic review highlights the importance of ensuring post-discharge referral and appropriate management, including ART, to reduce mortality and readmission to hospital among this group of high-risk patients.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations

For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.

Challenges in pediatric post-sepsis care in resource limited settings: a narrative review

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this narrative review is to outline the current epidemiology and interventional research within the context of sepsis recovery, and to provide a summary of key priorities for future work in this area.

BACKGROUND

Morbidity and mortality secondary to sepsis disproportionately affects children, especially those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where over 85% of global cases and deaths occur. These regions are plagued by poorly resilient health systems, widespread socio-economic deprivation and unique vulnerabilities such as malnutrition. Reducing the overall burden of sepsis will require a multi-pronged strategy that addresses all three important periods along the sepsis care continuum - pre-facility, facility and post-facility. Of these aspects, post-facility issues have been largely neglected in research, practice and policy, and are thus the focus of this review.

METHODS

Relevant data for this review was identified through a literature search using PubMed, through a review of the citations of select systematic reviews and from the personal repositories of articles collected by the authors. Data is presented within three sections. The first two sections on the short and long-term outcomes among sepsis survivors each outline the epidemiology as well as review relevant interventional research done. Where clear gaps exist, these are stated. The third section focuses on priorities for future research. This section highlights the importance of data (and data systems) and of innovative interventional approaches, as key areas to improve research of post-sepsis outcomes in children.

CONCLUSIONS

During the initial post-facility period, mortality is high with as many children dying during this period as during the acute period of hospitalization, mostly due to recurrent illness (including infections) which are associated with malnutrition and severe acute disease. Long-term outcomes, often labelled as post-sepsis syndrome (PSS), are characterized by a lag in developmental milestones and suboptimal quality of life (QoL). While long-term outcomes have not been well characterized in resource limited settings, they are well described in high-income countries (HICs), and likely are important contributors to long-term morbidity in resource limited settings. The paucity of interventional research to improve post-discharge outcomes (short- or long-term) is a clear gap in addressing its burden. A focus on the development of improved data systems for collecting routine data, standardized definitions and terminology and a health-systems approach in research need to be prioritized during any efforts to improve outcomes during the post-sepsis phase.

Anticipating the future: prognostic tools as a complementary strategy to improve care for patients with febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings

In low-income and middle-income countries, most patients with febrile illnesses present to peripheral levels of the health system where diagnostic capacity is very limited. In these contexts, accurate risk stratification can be particularly impactful, helping to guide allocation of scarce resources to ensure timely and tailored care. However, reporting of prognostic research is often imprecise and few prognostic tests or algorithms are translated into clinical practice.

Here, we review the often-conflated concepts of prognosis and diagnosis, with a focus on patients with febrile illnesses. Drawing on a recent global stakeholder consultation, we apply these concepts to propose three use-cases for prognostic tools in the management of febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings: (1) guiding referrals from the community to higher-level care; (2) informing resource allocation for patients admitted to hospital and (3) identifying patients who may benefit from closer follow-up post-hospital discharge. We explore the practical implications for new technologies and reflect on the challenges and knowledge gaps that must be addressed before this approach could be incorporated into routine care settings.

Our intention is that these use-cases, alongside other recent initiatives, will help to promote a harmonised yet contextualised approach for prognostic research in febrile illness. We argue that this is especially important given the heterogeneous settings in which care is often provided for patients with febrile illnesses living in low-income and middle-income countries.

Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteremia in Young Children Hospitalized With Pneumonia in Bangladesh Is Associated With a High Mortality Rate

Background

Pneumonia is a leading cause of sepsis and mortality in children under 5 years. However, our understanding of the causes of bacteremia in children with pneumonia is limited.

Methods

We characterized risk factors for bacteremia and death in a cohort of children admitted to the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) between 2014 and 2017 with radiographically confirmed pneumonia.

Results

A total of 4007 young children were hospitalized with pneumonia over the study period. A total of 1814 (45%) had blood cultures obtained. Of those, 108 (6%) were positive. Gram-negative pathogens predominated, accounting for 83 (77%) of positive cultures. These included Pseudomonas (N = 22), Escherichia coli (N = 17), Salmonella enterica (N = 14, including 11 Salmonella Typhi), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (N = 11). Gram-positive pathogens included Pneumococcus (N = 7) and Staphylococcus aureus (N = 6). Resistance to all routinely used empiric antibiotics (ampicillin, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin, and ceftriaxone) for children with pneumonia at the icddr,b was observed in 20 of the 108 isolates. Thirty-one of 108 (29%) children with bacteremia died, compared to 124 of 1706 (7%) who underwent culture without bacteremia (odds ratio [OR], 5.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3–8.1; P < .001). Children infected with bacteria resistant to all routinely used empiric antibiotics were at greater risk of death compared to children without bacteremia (OR, 17.3; 95% CI, 7.0–43.1; P < .001).

Conclusions

Antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteremia in young children with pneumonia in Dhaka, Bangladesh was associated with a high mortality rate. The pandemic of antibiotic resistance is shortening the lives of young children in Bangladesh, and new approaches to prevent and treat these infections are desperately needed.

Reducing rates of discharge against medical advice in the neonatal intensive care unit in a tertiary care hospital in South India: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate characteristics among neonates and their mothers who were discharged against medical advice (DAMA), providers' perspectives on DAMA and the effect of an intervention to reduce DAMA in a tertiary care hospital in South India.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study to identify neonates at risk of DAMA. We reviewed charts of neonates and their mothers who were DAMA and conducted logit regression analysis to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine associations with DAMA. We conducted focus group discussions with nurses and doctors. We developed an intervention that included family counselling, supplemental funds for hospital bills and involving family members to reduce DAMA.

RESULTS

Of 10 834 neonates, 179 (1.7%) were DAMA over the study period. Maternal characteristics associated with DAMA included higher previous parity (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-2.3, P = 0.001). Mothers who received antenatal care had lower odds of DAMA (aOR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.7, P = 0.039). Neonates with lower birth weight (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-9.4, P = 0.002) and congenital malformations (aOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.3, P = 0.005) also had higher odds of DAMA. The most commonly cited reasons for DAMA were financial constraints, inadequate counselling and perceived poor prognosis. The average monthly number of neonates who were DAMA decreased from 3.6 (1.6%) to 1.5 (0.6%) after our multi-pronged intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Neonates with severe illness and poor prognosis had higher odds of DAMA. A multi-pronged intervention demonstrated reductions in the rates of DAMA. This intervention may be trialled in similar settings to reduce DAMA.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5−12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality.

Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74−116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3−38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria. 

Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5-12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality. Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74-116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3-38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria.  Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of 30-day mortality in severe acute malnourished children with severe pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the predictors of mortality within 30 days of hospital admission in a diarrhoeal disease hospital in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Cohort study of hospitalised children aged 0-59 months with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and severe pneumonia in Dhaka Hospital, icddr,b, Bangladesh from April 2015 to March 2017. Those discharged were followed up, and survival status at 30 days from admission was determined. Children who died were compared with the survivors in terms of clinical and laboratory biomarkers. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for calculating adjusted odds ratio for death within 30 days of hospital admission.

RESULTS

We enrolled 191 children. Mortality within 30 days of admission was 6% (14/191). After adjusting for potential confounders (hypoxia, CRP and haematocrit) in logistic regression analysis, independent factors associated with death were female sex (aOR = 5.80, 95% CI: 1.34-25.19), LAZ <-4 (aOR = 6.51, 95% CI: 1.49-28.44) and Polymorphonuclear Leucocytes (PMNL) (>6.0 × 10⁹ /L) (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.11). Using sex, Z-score for length for age (LAZ), and PMNL percentage, we used random forest and linear regression models to achieve a cross-validated AUC of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.84) for prediction of 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our data suggest that female sex, severe malnutrition (<-4 LAZ) and higher PMNL percentage were prone to be associated with 30-day mortality in children with severe pneumonia. Association of these factors may be used in clinical decision support for prompt identification and appropriate management for prevention of mortality in this population.

Host-Based Prognostic Biomarkers to Improve Risk Stratification and Outcome of Febrile Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Fever is one of the leading causes for pediatric medical consultation and the most common symptom at clinical presentation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Most febrile episodes are due to self-limited infections, but a small proportion of children will develop life-threatening infections. The early recognition of children who have or are progressing to a critical illness among all febrile cases is challenging, and there are currently no objective and quantitative tools to do so. This results in increased morbidity and mortality among children with impending life-threatening infections, whilst contributing to the unnecessary prescription of antibiotics, overwhelming health care facilities, and harm to patients receiving avoidable antimicrobial treatment. Specific fever origin is difficult to ascertain and co-infections in LMICs are common. However, many severe infections share common pathways of host injury irrespective of etiology, including immune and endothelial activation that contribute to the pathobiology of sepsis (i.e., pathogen "agnostic" mechanisms of disease). Importantly, mediators of these pathways are independent markers of disease severity and outcome. We propose that measuring circulating levels of these factors can provide quantitative and objective evidence to: enable early recognition of severe infection; guide patient triage and management; enhance post-discharge risk stratification and follow up; and mitigate potential gender bias in clinical decisions. Here, we review the clinical and biological evidence supporting the clinical utility of host immune and endothelial activation biomarkers as components of novel rapid triage tests, and discuss the challenges and needs for developing and implementing such tools.