Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Residents of a Long-Term Care Skilled Nursing Facility - King County, Washington, March 2020

Public Health Response to COVID-19 Among Travelers Disembarked From the Grand Princess Cruise Ship, March 2020

OBJECTIVES

Cruise ship settings can facilitate transmission of respiratory infections. In March 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak occurred on the Grand Princess cruise ship. We describe the public health response, including a large-scale US federal quarantine intended to limit spread to communities not yet affected by COVID-19.

METHODS

All US residents and symptomatic people requiring hospitalization disembarked beginning on March 9 and were transported to designated US military bases for federal quarantine or to hospitals or alternate care sites for medical care. Foreign nationals remained on board (crew) or were repatriated (passengers). People under federal quarantine were monitored daily for symptoms and tested voluntarily for SARS-CoV-2 upon arrival, as tests became available, and if symptoms developed.

RESULTS

Of 3582 travelers (passengers and crew) on board, 2013 (56%) went to military bases, 59 (2%) went to hospitals or alternate care sites, 419 (12%) were repatriated, and the remainder (crew) quarantined on board. Overall, 1144 travelers (32%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2; of those, 155 (14%) had a positive test result. Among 2013 US residents quarantined, 1054 (52%) were tested. Of those, 115 (11%) had a positive test result, 37 (32%) of whom were symptomatic at testing. Proportions tested across bases ranged from 28% to 89%; test positivity ranged from 10% to 16%. Of 31 travelers hospitalized, the median (IQR) stay was 4 (4-9) nights, and 9 (29%) travelers died of SARS-CoV-2 complications.

CONCLUSIONS

The Grand Princess outbreak was the first confirmed COVID-19 outbreak on a cruise ship in US waters. Multiagency public health responses allowed for isolation and quarantine, potentially helping to slow transmission into US communities. Ensuring that cruise ships have plans for communicable disease control and mitigation helps protect passenger and crew well-being.

Immunosenescence Profile Is Associated With Increased Susceptibility to Severe COVID-19

In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the immunosenescence profile could account for the disproportional susceptibility of the elderly to severe forms of COVID-19. The immunological profiles of volunteers residing in endemic and non-endemic areas for chronic infectious diseases were analyzed at the early stage of SARS-CoV-2 infection. A unique signature of inflammatory plasma mediators was identified in COVID-19 volunteers when compared to individuals with other flu-like syndromes. COVID-19 severity correlated with high levels of inflammatory mediators; among them, CXCL9, a serum marker of aging. Patients who progressed to hospitalization displayed high frequencies of CD8+ and CD4+ T cells expressing exhaustion and senescence markers and showed reduced and more mature B cell repertoires, which are typical of senescence. They also had an acceleration of epigenetic age measured by DNA methylation. Therefore, severe COVID-19 correlated with phenotypic, functional, and epigenetic features of accelerated immunosenescence at the onset of infection.

COVID-19 patient variables associated with the detection of airborne SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

Understanding the COVID-19 patient characteristics that impact environmental SARS-CoV-2 load is essential for improving infection risk management. In this study, we analyzed the influence of patient variables on airborne SARS-CoV-2 genome detection.

METHODS

Sixty-nine COVID-19 patients were recruited across three independent studies with airborne SARS-CoV-2 genome assessed in individual hospital rooms using droplet digital PCR.

RESULTS

In the bivariate analysis, the odds of airborne SARS-CoV-2 detection were significantly higher for patients with obesity, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia at admission, sampling, and discharge, and lower lymphocytes count. No significant associations were found between airborne SARS-CoV-2 detection and symptoms presence or duration, nor with the results of the most recent positive nasopharyngeal PCR test prior to air sampling. In the multivariate analysis, the best-fit model included patient age, type of admission, and symptoms duration. Patient age significantly contributed to the risk of airborne SARS-CoV-2 detection in the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the variability in individual responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and suggest that factors linked to COVID-19 severity, symptomatology, and immunocompetence influence the airborne SARS-CoV-2 detection. Our results may support the development of more precise preventive measures in healthcare settings.

Age- and vaccination status-dependent isolation guidelines based on simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Delta cases in Singapore

BACKGROUND

In the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions early in an infectious disease outbreak, non-pharmaceutical measures, especially isolating infected individuals, critically limit its impact. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has sparked debates on optimal isolation guidelines. This study proposes a variable isolation period approach (variable-period approach), tailoring isolation durations for distinct population groups with varied viral load dynamics.

METHODS

To compare our variable-period approach with a fixed-period strategy, we developed a simulation model generating synthetic longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 viral load data. The data was generated from the viral dynamics model parameterized using SARS-CoV-2 Delta patient data in Singapore, accounting for age and vaccination status.

RESULTS

Findings show that age and vaccination status significantly influence viral dynamics, with younger age and vaccination linked to shorter viral shedding durations. The variable-period framework suggests longer isolation lengths for older and unvaccinated individuals. By setting the leaking risk (risk of remaining infectious at the end of isolation) below 10%, the optimal fixed-period isolation is 14 days, with an average excess isolation burden of 7.4 unnecessary days. In contrast, the variable-period guideline reduces the excess isolation burden to 6.0 days, with the optimal isolation periods ranging from 9 to 16 days, depending on the population group. We confirmed similar results when we used the effective reproduction number as an alternative to the leaking risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In this case, study using the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, our analysis demonstrates that unnecessary time spent in isolation can be reduced by adopting variable-period guidelines based on patient characteristics.

A modeling study to define guidelines for antigen screening in schools and workplaces to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks

BACKGROUND

In-person interaction offers invaluable benefits to people. To guarantee safe in-person activities during a COVID-19 outbreak, effective identification of infectious individuals is essential. In this study, we aim to analyze the impact of screening with antigen tests in schools and workplaces on identifying COVID-19 infections.

METHODS

We assess the effectiveness of various screening test strategies with antigen tests in schools and workplaces through quantitative simulations. The primary outcome of our analyses is the proportion of infected individuals identified. The transmission process at the population level is modeled using a deterministic compartmental model. Infected individuals are identified through screening tests or symptom development. The time-varying sensitivity of antigen tests and infectiousness is determined by a viral dynamics model. Screening test strategies are characterized by the screening schedule, sensitivity of antigen tests, screening duration, timing of screening initiation, and available tests per person.

RESULTS

Here, we show that early and frequent screening is the key to maximizing the effectiveness of the screening program. For example, 44.5% (95% CI: 40.8-47.5) of infected individuals are identified by daily testing, whereas it is only 33.7% (95% CI: 30.5-37.3) when testing is performed at the end of the program duration. If high sensitivity antigen tests (Detection limit: 6.3 × 10 4 copies/mL) are deployed, it reaches 69.3% (95% CI: 66.5-72.5).

CONCLUSIONS

High sensitivity antigen tests, high frequency screening tests, and immediate initiation of screening tests are important to safely restart educational and economic activities in-person. Our computational framework is useful for assessing screening programs by incorporating situation-specific factors.

RBD Amplicon Sequencing and Evolutionary Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Variants from Wastewater Samples

The surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is significantly limited by the presence of numerous variants with distinct behaviors driven by rapid evolution. Although the conventional clinical genome sequencing method provides comprehensive data, it has limitations in capturing the epidemiological dynamics of the variants circulating in the community. In this chapter, we describe a protocol using RBD amplicon sequencing of wastewater samples. We present the detailed experimental procedure for wastewater sample processing, robust nested-PCR-based amplification of the target RBD sequence, and library preparation. Moreover, we describe a general pipeline of sequencing data processing and interpretation, showing the epidemiological and evolutionary trends of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the community.

Assessment of environmental factors influencing SARS-CoV-2 in Vietnam's surface water across two years of clinical data

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an effective, non-invasive method for monitoring the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by tracking viral prevalence in water. This study aimed to investigate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in surface water in Vietnam over two years. One-step quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays were employed to quantify SARS-CoV-2 and its variant-specific mutation sites (G339D/E484A) and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) from a total of 315 samples (105 samples per site) to compare with reported Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and environmental factors. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 38 % (40/105), 43 % (45/105), and 39 % (41/105) of water samples from Sites A, B, and C, respectively, with concentrations of 3.0-5.6 log10 copies/L. PMMoV concentrations were 5.1-8.9 log10 copies/L. SARS-CoV-2 levels were higher in winter compared with summer. There was a strong positive association between the mutant type and SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (Spearman's rho = 0.77, p < 0.01). The mean concentrations of mutant and nonmutant types were 2.3 and 1.8 log10 copies/L, respectively. Peaks in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations preceded reported COVID-19 cases by 2-4 weeks, with the highest association observed at a 4-week delay (Pearson's correlation coefficient: 0.46-0.53). Environmental factors, including temperature, pH, and electrical conductivity, correlated negatively with SARS-CoV-2 (Spearman's rho = -0.21, -0.28, and -0.21, respectively, p < 0.05), whereas average rainfall, humidity, and dissolved oxygen correlated positively (Spearman's rho = 0.20, 0.27, and 0.51, respectively, p < 0.05). These correlations highlight the significance of environmental variables in understanding viral prevalence in water. Our findings confirmed the utility of WBE as an early warning system for long-term monitoring. Future research should incorporate environmental factors to improve prediction accuracy for clinical cases and other waterborne diseases.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients with Different Variants of SARS-CoV-2 in a Tertiary Care Hospital, Thailand

The different strains of SARS-CoV-2 were detected and labeled in 2021. Each strain differs in both clinical symptoms and severity. Previous studies found different clinical symptoms and treatment outcomes between outbreak waves; however, data in Southeast Asia were limited. This study collected data of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from a Tertiary hospital in Thailand between January 2020 and December 2023 and analyzed patients' data in each outbreak wave using Pearson's chi-square. A total of 1084 inpatients were included for analysis. The median age was 64 (IQR, 0.4-100) years. The patients were hospitalized in predominantly Alpha (22.78%), Delta (21.68%), and Omicron (5.07%) periods of the virus outbreak. The largest age group was elderly (over 65 years old) in all three variant of concern (VOC) periods; 82.65% of the patients had comorbidities, including 58.5% hypertension, 46.5% dyslipidemia, and 42.0% diabetes mellitus (DM). The study found pneumonia at 67.53%, septic shock at 4.61%, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) at 2.86%, and congestive heart failure at 0.83% in all age groups with no significant difference between outbreak periods. The overall mortality rate was 16.14%. A total of 75% of deaths occurred in patients over 65 years old. The mortality rates in each VOC period were 20.0% Delta, 19.83% Alpha, and 13.23% Omicron. In the elderly group, the mortality rates were Delta 15.32%, Alpha 11.75%, and Omicron 10.88%. The Omicron VOC was less severe than other variants, particularly in the elderly (≥65 years). There were no significant differences in the younger (<65 years) age group. The elderly still had more severe symptoms and the highest mortality rates in every wave of outbreak.

Revealing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence and evolution using RBD amplicon sequencing of wastewater

OBJECTIVES

Rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in the emergence of numerous variants, posing significant challenges to public health surveillance. Clinical genome sequencing, while valuable, has limitations in capturing the full epidemiological dynamics of circulating variants in the general population. This study aimed to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 variant community dynamics and evolution using receptor-binding domain (RBD) amplicon sequencing of wastewater samples.

METHODS

We sequenced wastewater from El Paso, Texas, over 17 months, compared the sequencing data with clinical genome data, and performed biodiversity analysis to reveal SARS-CoV-2 variant dynamics and evolution.

RESULTS

We identified 91 variants and observed waves of dominant variants transitioning from BA.2 to BA.2.12.1, BA.4&5, BQ.1, and XBB.1.5. Comparison with clinical genome sequencing data revealed earlier detection of variants and identification of unreported outbreaks. Our results also showed strong consistency with clinical data for dominant variants at the local, state, and national levels. Alpha diversity analyses revealed significant seasonal variations, with the highest diversity observed in winter. By segmenting the outbreak into lag, growth, stationary, and decline phases, we found higher variant diversity during the lag phase, likely due to lower inter-variant competition preceding outbreak growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underscore the importance of low transmission periods in facilitating rapid mutation and variant evolution. Our approach, integrating RBD amplicon sequencing with wastewater surveillance, demonstrates effectiveness in tracking viral evolution and understanding variant emergence, thus enhancing public health preparedness.

Cycle Threshold Values of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR during Outbreaks in Nursing Homes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Backgound/Objectives: Cycle threshold (Ct) values of SARS-CoV-2 real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are associated with infectivity and viral load, and they could be an aid in forecasting the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. The objective was to know the Ct values related to the incidence and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in successive outbreaks, which took place in nursing homes in Castellon (Spain) during 2020-2022, and to test its usefulness as an instrument of epidemic surveillance in nursing homes.

METHODS

a retrospective cohort design with Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression were used.

RESULTS

We studied four nursing home SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, and the average infection rate, reinfection rate, and case fatality were 72.7%, 19.9%, and 5.5%, respectively; 98.9% of residents were vaccinated with three doses of a mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Ct values for first infections and reinfections were 27.1 ± 6.6 and 31.9 ± 5.4 (p = 0.000). Considering Ct values ≥ 30 versus <30, residents with reinfections had Ct values higher than residents with a first infection, an adjusted relative risk of 1.66 (95% Confidence interval 1.10-2.51). A sensitivity analysis confirmed these results.

CONCLUSIONS

Reinfection and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (hybrid immunity) could protect against severe disease better than vaccination alone. High Ct values suggest lower transmission and severity. Its value can be useful for surveillance and forecasting future SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.

Clinical characteristics, treatment, and outcomes for elderly patients in a dedicated Covid-19 ward at a primary health care facility in western Norway: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus pandemic has hit the oldest and frailest individuals hard, particularly patients and residents in nursing homes. In March 2020, we established a Covid-19 ward at a nursing home in Bergen, western Norway for elderly patients with Sars-CoV-2 infection and in the need of treatment and care in a primary health care facility. The aims of this study were to describe the organization of the ward, the clinical outcomes of infection, treatment, mortality rates in the population, the level of advanced care planning, and end-of-life care for those who died.

METHODS

We present patient characteristics, outcomes, vaccination status, treatment, decisions regarding treatment intensity upon clinical deterioration, and mortality for the patients in the ward. Clinical factors possibly related to a fatal outcome were analysed with chi square test (categorical variables) or t-test (continuous variables).

RESULTS

257 patients were included from March 2020 to April 2022. Fifty-nine patients (23.0%) developed respiratory failure. Ten patients (3.9%) were admitted to hospital. Advance care planning was undertaken for 245 (95.3%) of the patients. 30-day mortality rate decreased from 42 to 4% during the study period. Of the 29 (11.3%) patients who died, all were well alleviated in the terminal phase, and 26 (89.7%) of them had a Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) value ≥ 7. A high score for CFS, respiratory failure and respiratory co-infection were significantly associated with Covid-19 related death within 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Covid-19-related mortality markedly decreased during the study period, and a high score for CFS was related to a fatal outcome. Thorough planning of treatment intensity upon deterioration, low hospitalization rates, and good relief for those who died suggest that dedicated Covid-19 wards in nursing homes can provide good treatment for the patients and relieve other nursing homes and specialist health care services.

Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform evidence-based public health guidance and policies. Here, we discuss requirements for an effective surveillance system to support decision making during a pandemic, drawing on the lessons of COVID-19 in the U.S., while looking to jurisdictions in the U.S. and beyond to learn lessons about the value of specific data types. In this report, we define the range of decisions for which surveillance data are required, the data elements needed to inform these decisions and to calibrate inputs and outputs of transmission-dynamic models, and the types of data needed to inform decisions by state, territorial, local, and tribal health authorities. We define actions needed to ensure that such data will be available and consider the contribution of such efforts to improving health equity.

RBD amplicon sequencing of wastewater reveals patterns of variant emergence and evolution

Rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in the emergence of numerous variants, posing significant challenges to public health surveillance. Clinical genome sequencing, while valuable, has limitations in capturing the full epidemiological dynamics of circulating variants in the general population. This study utilized receptor-binding domain (RBD) amplicon sequencing of wastewater samples to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 community dynamics and evolution in El Paso, TX. Over 17 months, we identified 91 variants and observed waves of dominant variants transitioning from BA.2 to BA.2.12.1, BA.4&5, BQ.1, and XBB.1.5. Our findings demonstrated early detection of variants and identification of unreported outbreaks, while showing strong consistency with clinical genome sequencing data at the local, state, and national levels. Alpha diversity analyses revealed significant periodical variations, with the highest diversity observed in winter and the outbreak lag phases, likely due to lower competition among variants before the outbreak growth phase. The data underscores the importance of low transmission periods for rapid mutation and variant evolution. This study highlights the effectiveness of integrating RBD amplicon sequencing with wastewater surveillance in tracking viral evolution, understanding variant emergence, and enhancing public health preparedness.

Reduction in ACE2 expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells during COVID-19 - implications for post COVID-19 conditions

BACKGROUND

Severe COVID-19 is uncommon, restricted to 19% of the total population. In response to the first virus wave (alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2), we investigated whether a biomarker indicated severity of disease and, in particular, if variable expression of angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in blood might clarify this difference in risk and of post COVID -19 conditions (PCC).

METHODS

The IRB-approved study compared patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 to healthy controls. Severe infection was defined requiring oxygen or increased oxygen need from baseline at admission with positive COVID-19 PCR. A single blood sample was obtained from patients within a day of admission. ACE2 RNA expression in blood cells was measured by an RT-PCR assay. Plasma ACE1 and ACE2 enzyme activities were quantified by fluorescent peptides. Plasma TIMP-1, PIIINP and MMP-9 antigens were quantified by ELISA. Data were entered into REDCap and analyzed using STATA v 14 and GraphPad Prism v 10.

RESULTS

Forty-eight patients and 72 healthy controls were recruited during the pandemic. ACE2 RNA expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) was rarely detected acutely during severe COVID-19 but common in controls (OR for undetected ACE2: 12.4 [95% CI: 2.62-76.1]). ACE2 RNA expression in PBMC did not determine plasma ACE1 and ACE2 activity, suggesting alternative cell-signaling pathways. Markers of fibrosis (TIMP-1 and PIIINP) and vasculopathy (MMP-9) were additionally elevated. ACE2 RNA expression during severe COVID-19 often responded within hours to convalescent plasma. Analogous to oncogenesis, we speculate that potent, persistent, cryptic processes following COVID-19 (the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), fibrosis and vasculopathy) initiate or promote post-COVID-19 conditions (PCC) in susceptible individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

This work elucidates biological and temporal plausibility for ACE2, TIMP1, PIIINP and MMP-9 in the pathogenesis of PCC. Intersection of these independent systems is uncommon and may in part explain the rarity of PCC.

No evidence for enhanced disease with human polyclonal SARS-CoV-2 antibody in the ferret model

Since SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, it spread from China to the rest of the world. An initial concern was the potential for vaccine- or antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of disease as had been reported with other coronaviruses. To evaluate this, we first developed a ferret model by exposing ferrets to SARS-CoV-2 by either mucosal inoculation (intranasal/oral/ocular) or inhalation using a small particle aerosol. Mucosal inoculation caused a mild fever and weight loss that resolved quickly; inoculation via either route resulted in virus shedding detected in the nares, throat, and rectum for 7-10 days post-infection. To evaluate the potential for ADE, we then inoculated groups of ferrets intravenously with 0.1, 0.5, or 1 mg/kg doses of a human polyclonal anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG from hyper-immunized transchromosomic bovines (SAB-185). Twelve hours later, ferrets were challenged by mucosal inoculation with SARS-CoV-2. We found no significant differences in fever, weight loss, or viral shedding after infection between the three antibody groups or the controls. Signs of pathology in the lungs were noted in infected ferrets but no differences were found between control and antibody groups. The results of this study indicate that healthy, young adult ferrets of both sexes are a suitable model of mild COVID-19 and that low doses of specific IgG in SAB-185 are unlikely to enhance the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2.

Predicting human and viral protein variants affecting COVID-19 susceptibility and repurposing therapeutics

The COVID-19 disease is an ongoing global health concern. Although vaccination provides some protection, people are still susceptible to re-infection. Ostensibly, certain populations or clinical groups may be more vulnerable. Factors causing these differences are unclear and whilst socioeconomic and cultural differences are likely to be important, human genetic factors could influence susceptibility. Experimental studies indicate SARS-CoV-2 uses innate immune suppression as a strategy to speed-up entry and replication into the host cell. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the impact of variants in immunity-associated human proteins on susceptibility to COVID-19. In this work, we analysed missense coding variants in several SARS-CoV-2 proteins and their human protein interactors that could enhance binding affinity to SARS-CoV-2. We curated a dataset of 19 SARS-CoV-2: human protein 3D-complexes, from the experimentally determined structures in the Protein Data Bank and models built using AlphaFold2-multimer, and analysed the impact of missense variants occurring in the protein-protein interface region. We analysed 468 missense variants from human proteins and 212 variants from SARS-CoV-2 proteins and computationally predicted their impacts on binding affinities for the human viral protein complexes. We predicted a total of 26 affinity-enhancing variants from 13 human proteins implicated in increased binding affinity to SARS-CoV-2. These include key-immunity associated genes (TOMM70, ISG15, IFIH1, IFIT2, RPS3, PALS1, NUP98, AXL, ARF6, TRIMM, TRIM25) as well as important spike receptors (KREMEN1, AXL and ACE2). We report both common (e.g., Y13N in IFIH1) and rare variants in these proteins and discuss their likely structural and functional impact, using information on known and predicted functional sites. Potential mechanisms associated with immune suppression implicated by these variants are discussed. Occurrence of certain predicted affinity-enhancing variants should be monitored as they could lead to increased susceptibility and reduced immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in individuals/populations carrying them. Our analyses aid in understanding the potential impact of genetic variation in immunity-associated proteins on COVID-19 susceptibility and help guide drug-repurposing strategies.

Retrospective estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number for a COVID-19 outbreak in Shenyang, China: An observational study

The time-varying effective reproduction number Re(t) is essential for designing and adjusting public health responses. Retrospective analysis of Re(t) helps to evaluate health emergency capabilities. We conducted this study to estimate the Re(t) of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in Shenyang, China. Data on the daily incidence of this Corona Virus Disease 2019 outbreak between March 5, 2022, and April 25, 2022, in Shenyang, China, were downloaded from the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. Infector-infectee pairs were identified through epidemiological investigation. Re(t) was estimated by R-studio Package "EpiEstim" based on Bayesian framework through parameter and nonparametric method, respectively. About 1134 infections were found in this outbreak, with 20 confirmed cases and 1124 asymptomatic infections. Fifty-four infector-infectee pairs were identified and formed a serial interval list, and 15 infector-infectee pairs were included in the generation time table. Re(t) calculated by parameter and nonparametric method all peaked on March 17, 2022, with a value of 2.58 and 2.54 and decreased to <1 after March 28, 2022. There was no statistical difference in the Re(t) distribution calculated using the 2 methods (t = 0.001, P > .05). The present study indicated that the decisive response of Shenyang, China, played a significant role in preventing the spread of the epidemic, and the retrospective analysis provided novel insights into the outbreak response to future public health emergencies.

A Review of the Nutritional Aspects and Composition of the Meat, Liver and Fat of Buffaloes in the Amazon

Thus, this review aims to deepen the understanding of buffalo farming in the Amazon, presenting the quality and nutritional value of buffalo meat and liver. This information serves as a subsidy to improve practices related to the breeding system, nutrition, health and sustainability associated with aquatic buffaloes. For this, a review of the databases was carried out using the descriptors "nutritional value of buffalo meat", "nutritional value of buffalo liver" and "buffalo breeding in the Amazon". Thus, the consumption of foods derived from aquatic buffaloes has important nutritional value for human consumption. In view of this, it is possible to conclude that the nutrition of these animals is influenced by the biodiversity of the Amazon, giving unique characteristics to its products, also highlighting the importance of carrying out research that aims to value the potential use of this species and strengthen the economy of the region.

Acute Kidney Injury in the Context of COVID-19: An Analysis in Hospitalized Mexican Patients

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a considerable proportion of patients developed a severe condition that included respiratory failure, shock, or multiple organ dysfunction. Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) has been recognized as a possible cause of severe COVID-19 development. Given this, this study investigates the occurrence and consequences of AKI in Mexican patients to contribute to better knowledge and management of this problem. Methods: Using a retrospective observational cohort methodology, we investigated 313 cases from a cohort of 1019 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at the IMSS Zacatecas General Hospital of Zone No. 1 in 2020. The prevalence of AKI was determined using the AKIN criteria based on serum creatinine levels and a detailed review of demographic characteristics, medical history, comorbidities, and clinical development. Results: The data showed a 25.30% prevalence of AKI among patients infected with severe COVID-19. Remarkably, these patients with AKI exhibited an advanced age (>65 years), arterial hypertension, a higher number of white blood cells during admission and the hospital stay, and elevated levels of C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Clinically, patients with AKI had signs of prostration, pneumonia, and the requirement for ventilatory assistance when compared to those without AKI. Finally, those diagnosed with AKI and COVID-19 had a 74% death rate. Relative risk analyses indicated that age (>65 years), arterial hypertension, high creatinine levels, endotracheal intubation, and pneumonia are associated with the development of AKI. On the other hand, among the protective factors against AKI, high hemoglobin levels and the consumption of statins during COVID-19 were found. Conclusions: The findings of this study underscore the significance of promptly identifying and effectively managing AKI to potentially alleviate the negative consequences of this complication within the Mexican population during COVID-19.

A closer look at the link between cycle threshold, clinical features and biomarkers: An observational study in COVID-19 patients

Background

Symptoms for severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appear 2-3 days after exposure to the virus. Being a virus, detection is primarily by polymerase chain reaction as this offers superior sensitivity and specificity. There was a misconception that patients with low cycle threshold (Ct) have severe coronavirus disease (COVID), and for individuals with higher Ct, it is the other way around. The prognosis for COVID was derived from various biomarkers and physicians heavily relied on them.

Materials and Methods

A cross-sectional study spanning a duration of 2 years was conducted at a tertiary care centre in western India. A total of 201 individuals were included and the correlation between Ct, clinical features and biomarkers was studied.

Results

In the E-gene, 43.28% had lower Ct values and 40.79% had low Ct values in the RdRp gene. 50% of all patients had diabetes, with 60% being between the ages of 61 and 80. 54.1% of hypertension patients belonged to ages between 61 and 80. 90.54% of COVID-positive individuals had lactose dehydrogenase levels ranging from 440 to 760. 79% of patients had a procalcitonin value of more than one but less than six. 79.1% of patients had an erythrocyte sedimentation rate between 36 and 90.

Conclusion

Ct value though has a research value; it is a poor prognostic marker when compared to the various biomarkers that have been studied earlier. We cannot conclusively state that all our findings are accurate due to a lack of data but further research into the prognostic value of Ct should be conducted which will help in the ongoing scenario.

Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Among Residents and Employees in a Veterans Affairs Community Living Center: A 42-Month Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Understanding routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in long-term care facilities is essential for the development of effective control measures.

Methods

Between March 1, 2020, and August 31, 2023, we identified coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases among residents and employees in a Veterans Affairs community living center that conducted routine screening for asymptomatic COVID-19. Contact tracing was conducted to identify suspected transmission events, and whole genome sequencing was performed to determine the relatedness of SARS-CoV-2 samples.

Results

During the 42-month study period, 269 cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed, including 199 employees and 70 residents. A total of 48 (24.1%) employees and 30 (42.9%) residents were asymptomatic. Sequencing analysis provided support for multiple events in which employees transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to co-workers and residents. There was 1 episode of likely transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from one resident to another resident, but no documented transmissions from residents to employees.

Conclusions

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the community living center predominantly involved transmission from employees to co-workers and residents. There is a need for improved measures to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by healthcare personnel.

Effect of Long-Distance Domestic Travel Ban Policies in Japan on COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics During Dominance of the Ancestral Strain: Ex Post Facto Retrospective Observation Study

BACKGROUND

In Japan, long-distance domestic travel was banned while the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain was dominant under the first declared state of emergency from March 2020 until the end of May 2020. Subsequently, the "Go To Travel" campaign travel subsidy policy was activated, allowing long-distance domestic travel, until the second state of emergency as of January 7, 2021. The effects of this long-distance domestic travel ban on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity have not been adequately evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the effects of the long-distance domestic travel ban in Japan on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, considering climate conditions, mobility, and countermeasures such as the "Go To Travel" campaign and emergency status.

METHODS

We calculated the effective reproduction number R(t), representing infectivity, using the epidemic curve in Kagoshima prefecture based on the empirical distribution of the incubation period and procedurally delayed reporting from an earlier study. Kagoshima prefecture, in southern Japan, has several resorts, with an airport commonly used for transportation to Tokyo or Osaka. We regressed R(t) on the number of long-distance domestic travelers (based on the number of airport limousine bus users provided by the operating company), temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as state of emergency declarations and the "Go To Travel" campaign in Kagoshima. The study period was June 20, 2020, through February 2021, before variant strains became dominant. A second state of emergency was not declared in Kagoshima prefecture but was declared in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka.

RESULTS

Estimation results indicated a pattern of declining infectivity with reduced long-distance domestic travel volumes as measured by the number of airport limousine bus users. Moreover, infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign and the second state of emergency. Regarding mobility, going to restaurants, shopping malls, and amusement venues was associated with increased infectivity. However, going to grocery stores and pharmacies was associated with decreased infectivity. Climate conditions showed no significant association with infectivity patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this retrospective analysis suggest that the volume of long-distance domestic travel might reduce SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. Infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign period, during which long-distance domestic travel was promoted, compared to that outside this campaign period. These findings suggest that policies banning long-distance domestic travel had little legitimacy or rationale. Long-distance domestic travel with appropriate infection control measures might not increase SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in tourist areas. Even though this analysis was performed much later than the study period, if we had performed this study focusing on the period of April or May 2021, it would likely yield the same results. These findings might be helpful for government decision-making in considering restarting a "Go To Travel" campaign in light of evidence-based policy.

The influencing factors of changes in physical activity levels of pregnant women during pregnancy: From the perspective of continuous care

A comprehensive understanding of physical activity levels (PAL) among Chinese pregnant women and an exploration, from a continuous care perspective, of various factors influencing these activity levels. Investigating the correlations between adverse habits, psychological factors, and PAL in prenatal health management. This study aims to provide substantial guidance for prenatal health management and personalized care, offering recommendations to healthcare professionals and policymakers to enhance the overall health and well-being of pregnant women. This study enrolled 1256 pregnant women as research subjects. Baseline information was collected through a personal information collection form. Subsequently, continuous care was provided during the early, middle, and late stages of pregnancy, documenting the respective influencing factors. Simultaneously, the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was utilized to assess the PAL of pregnant women across different trimesters. Finally, using the SPSS software version 25.0, a combined approach of generalized linear mixed effects (GLME) models and multivariate logistic regression was used to statistically analyze the collected data, comprehensively exploring the influencing factors of PAL during pregnancy. The proportion of research subjects engaged in low-level physical activity decreased from 60.80% to 40.34% across various stages of pregnancy, while the proportion engaged in moderate-level physical activity ranged from 25.32% to 40.75%. Meanwhile, the proportion engaged in high-level physical activity accounted for 13.88% to 18.91%.There was P = .021 and β = -0.276 for smoking before pregnancy. The P-value of pregnant women who smoke in the second trimester was.035, the Odds Ratio (OR) value was 0.638, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was (0.406, 0.972). The difference was statistically significant (all P < .05). In China, the physical activity level of pregnant women is generally low, which is related to factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, sleep disorders, and depression during pregnancy. Medical personnel should improve the living habits of pregnant women and enhance their PAL through measures such as health education and psychological counseling.

Early predictors of intensive care unit admission among COVID-19 patients in Qatar

Background

COVID-19 is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to explore the early predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission among patients with COVID-19.

Methods

This was a case-control study of adult patients with confirmed COVID-19. Cases were defined as patients admitted to ICU during the period February 29-May 29, 2020. For each case enrolled, one control was matched by age and gender.

Results

A total of 1,560 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included. Each group included 780 patients with a predominant male gender (89.7%) and a median age of 49 years (interquartile range = 18). Predictors independently associated with ICU admission were cardiovascular disease (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-2.32, p = 0.005), diabetes (aOR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.08-2.13, p = 0.016), obesity (aOR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03-2.08, p = 0.034), lymphopenia (aOR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.80-4.02, p < 0.001), high AST (aOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.53-4.36, p < 0.001), high ferritin (aOR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.40-2.74, p < 0.001), high CRP (aOR = 4.09, 95% CI: 2.81-5.96, p < 0.001), and dyspnea (aOR = 2.50, 95% CI: 1.77-3.54, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Having cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, lymphopenia, dyspnea, and increased AST, ferritin, and CRP were independent predictors for ICU admission in patients with COVID-19.

Sarcopenic patients "get even": The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on mortality

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19), driven by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has disproportionately affected the elderly, with comorbidities like sarcopenia worsening prognosis. Considering the significant impact of RNA vaccines on survival rates in this population, our objective is to investigate the impact of vaccination on the survival of hospitalized elderly patients with COVID-19, considering the presence or absence of sarcopenia.

METHODS

Prospective study conducted on 159 patients aged>65 years from September 2021 to March 2022. Data about clinical and body composition, and mortality at 12-months after discharge were recorded. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the 2019 European Consensus criteria.

RESULTS

At the twelfth month post-discharge, vaccinated sarcopenic individuals exhibited a mortality risk similar to vaccinated non-sarcopenic individuals, and lower than unvaccinated non-sarcopenic patients. Cox regression analysis, adjusted for age, gender, comorbidity, functional and vaccinal status, showed that the presence of sarcopenia did not significantly impact the risk of death within 12-months post-discharge.

DISCUSSION

Vaccination emerges as a protective measure for sarcopenic patients, countering the potential adverse effects of sarcopenia on COVID-19 outcomes, underscoring the importance of immunization in the frail elderly with a call for meticulous monitoring of its benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study represents the first attempt to analyze the vaccine's effect on survival in sarcopenic hospitalized older adults with COVID-19. The administration of vaccination to sarcopenic patients proves pivotal, as its omission could lead to notably unfavorable outcomes within this specific population.

Evaluation of Genetic or Cellular Impairments in Type I IFN Immunity in a Cohort of Young Adults with Critical COVID-19

Several genetic and immunological risk factors for severe COVID-19 have been identified, with monogenic conditions relating to 13 genes of type I interferon (IFN) immunity proposed to explain 4.8% of critical cases. However, previous cohorts have been clinically heterogeneous and were not subjected to thorough genetic and immunological analyses. We therefore aimed to systematically investigate the prevalence of rare genetic variants causing inborn errors of immunity (IEI) and functionally interrogate the type I IFN pathway in young adults that suffered from critical COVID-19 yet lacked comorbidities. We selected and clinically characterized a cohort of 38 previously healthy individuals under 50 years of age who were treated in intensive care units due to critical COVID-19. Blood samples were collected after convalescence. Two patients had IFN-α autoantibodies. Genome sequencing revealed very rare variants in the type I IFN pathway in 31.6% of the patients, which was similar to controls. Analyses of cryopreserved leukocytes did not indicate any defect in plasmacytoid dendritic cell sensing of TLR7 and TLR9 agonists in patients carrying variants in these pathways. However, lymphocyte STAT phosphorylation and protein upregulation upon IFN-α stimulation revealed three possible cases of impaired type I IFN signaling in carriers of rare variants. Together, our results suggest a strategy of functional screening followed by genome analyses and biochemical validation to uncover undiagnosed causes of critical COVID-19.

Changing genomic epidemiology of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities during the 2020-2022 pandemic, Washington State

BACKGROUND

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are vulnerable to disease outbreaks. Here, we jointly analyze SARS-CoV-2 genomic and paired epidemiologic data from LTCFs and surrounding communities in Washington state (WA) to assess transmission patterns during 2020-2022, in a setting of changing policy. We describe sequencing efforts and genomic epidemiologic findings across LTCFs and perform in-depth analysis in a single county.

METHODS

We assessed genomic data representativeness, built phylogenetic trees, and conducted discrete trait analysis to estimate introduction sizes over time, and explored selected outbreaks to further characterize transmission events.

RESULTS

We found that transmission dynamics among cases associated with LTCFs in WA changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with variable introduction rates into LTCFs, but decreasing amplification within LTCFs. SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in LTCFs were similar to those circulating in communities at the same time. Transmission between staff and residents was bi-directional.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding transmission dynamics within and between LTCFs using genomic epidemiology on a broad scale can assist in targeting policies and prevention efforts. Tracking facility-level outbreaks can help differentiate intra-facility outbreaks from high community transmission with repeated introduction events. Based on our study findings, methods for routine tree building and overlay of epidemiologic data for hypothesis generation by public health practitioners are recommended. Discrete trait analysis added valuable insight and can be considered when representative sequencing is performed. Cluster detection tools, especially those that rely on distance thresholds, may be of more limited use given current data capture and timeliness. Importantly, we noted a decrease in data capture from LTCFs over time. Depending on goals for use of genomic data, sentinel surveillance should be increased or targeted surveillance implemented to ensure available data for analysis.

Children With Disabilities and Their Mothers During the COVID-19 Pandemic Difficulties Experienced

The aim of this study was to determine the difficulties experienced by disabled children and their mothers due to the necessity of being at home during the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) process. The research is a qualitatively prepared phenomenological-type descriptive study. "Content analysis" was used in the analysis of the interview questions. Semi-structured interview technique was used as the data collection method. It was determined that the disabled child lost the skills he learned during the COVID-19 process; his health was adversely affected; there were disruptions in the education process; behavioral problems began; and he experienced social isolation. As a result, it can be said that both children with disabilities and mothers who care for them try to cope with many difficulties during the COVID-19 process and they are left alone and do not receive support during this process.

Factors Affecting COVID-19 Incidences and Deaths of Geriatric Hospital Patients in Korea

The current retrospective study aimed to investigate the association between organizational factors and nursing staff in geriatric hospitals and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidences and deaths using secondary data from governments nationwide in Korea. We used data on the number of COVID-19-confirmed cases and deaths among older adults in geriatric hospitals and nursing staff levels in those hospitals. We found that when the RN level was higher than the sample mean, the number of COVID-19-confirmed cases by geriatric hospital was significantly lower (4.3%; p = 0.05) and the number of deaths by geriatric hospital was marginally significantly lower (1.4%; p = 0.05). This study presented the national description of geriatric hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of organizational and nursing staff factors. Findings highlight the impact of nursing staff skill mix and number of geriatric hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. It is necessary to allocate a realistic designation of infection control staff and establish a clear standard so infection control activities in geriatric hospitals can proceed systematically. [Research in Gerontological Nursing, 16(6), 302-311.].

Factors associated with compliance with Infection Prevention and Control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic among healthcare workers in Kampala City, Uganda

BACKGROUND

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic that originated from China in December 2019 and spread around the world, Kampala City witnessed a high number of infections and deaths among healthcare workers (HCWs). This study assessed the level of compliance with Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) measures and its associated factors among HCWs during the COVID-19 pandemic, in Kampala City, Uganda.

METHODOLOGY

A cross-sectional study was conducted in Nakawa Division, Kampala City, among 240 HCWs and used multistage sampling in government and private not-for-profit (PNFP) healthcare facilities. The outcome variable was self-reported IPC compliance which was composed of the use of masks, gloves, and hand hygiene. These were assessed using a 4-scale tool: always as recommended, most of the time, occasionally, and rarely. Only HCWs who responded "always as recommended" were considered compliant while the rest were considered non-compliant. Data was analyzed in STATA 14.0 using Modified Poisson regression to obtain factors associated with IPC compliance at 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Forty-six (19.2%) respondents were compliant with all the three IPC measures, and this was associated with the presence of a COVID-19 patients' ward in the healthcare facility (Adjusted Prevalence Ratio, APR: 2.51, 95%CI: 1.24-5.07). Factors associated with the use of masks were being of the Muslim religion (APR: 1.31, CI: 1.05-1.65), and working in a healthcare facility that has COVID-19 patients' ward (APR: 1.29, CI: 1.06-1.59). Factors associated with the use of gloves were the age of the HCW, those above 40 years old being less complaint (APR: 0.47, CI: 0.24-0.93), working in the diagnosis department (APR: 2.08, CI: 1.17-3.70), and working in a healthcare facility that has COVID-19 patients' ward (APR: 1.73, CI: 1.13-2.64). Factors associated with hand hygiene were working in a health center (HC) IV (PR: 1.7, CI: 1.26-2.30) or a HC II (PR: 1.68, CI: 1.28-2.21).

CONCLUSION

Considering the elevated risk of disease transmission in health settings, IPC compliance was low; indicating an increased risk of COVID-19 infection among health care workers in Kampala City.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates and staffing shortages among healthcare personnel in nursing homes before, during, and after implementation of mandates for COVID-19 vaccination among 15 US jurisdictions, National Healthcare Safety Network, June 2021-January 2022

OBJECTIVE

To examine temporal changes in coverage with a complete primary series of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and staffing shortages among healthcare personnel (HCP) working in nursing homes in the United States before, during, and after the implementation of jurisdiction-based COVID-19 vaccination mandates for HCP.

SAMPLE AND SETTING

HCP in nursing homes from 15 US jurisdictions.

DESIGN

We analyzed weekly COVID-19 vaccination data reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network from June 7, 2021, through January 2, 2022. We assessed 3 periods (preintervention, intervention, and postintervention) based on the announcement of vaccination mandates for HCP in 15 jurisdictions. We used interrupted time-series models to estimate the weekly percentage change in vaccination with complete primary series and the odds of reporting a staffing shortage for each period.

RESULTS

Complete primary series vaccination among HCP increased from 66.7% at baseline to 94.3% at the end of the study period and increased at the fastest rate during the intervention period for 12 of 15 jurisdictions. The odds of reporting a staffing shortage were lowest after the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate that COVID-19 vaccination mandates may be an effective strategy for improving HCP vaccination coverage in nursing homes without exacerbating staffing shortages. These data suggest that mandates can be considered to improve COVID-19 coverage among HCP in nursing homes to protect both HCP and vulnerable nursing home residents.

Home Monitoring for Fever: An Inexpensive Screening Method to Prevent Household Spread of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic surge has exceeded testing capacities in many parts of the world. We investigated the effectiveness of home temperature monitoring for early identification of COVID-19 patients.

Study Design –

We compared home temperature measurements from a convenience sample of 1180 individuals who reported being test positive for SARS-CoV-2 to an age, sex, and location matched control group of 1249 individuals who had not tested positive.

Methods –

All individuals monitored their temperature at home using an electronic smartphone thermometer that relayed temperature measurements and symptoms to a centralized cloud based, de-identified data bank.

Results -

Individuals varied in the number of times they monitored their temperature. When temperature was monitored for over 72 hours fever (≥ 37.6°C or 99.7°F or a change in temperature of ≥ 1°C or 1.8°F) was detected in 73% of test positive individuals, a sensitivity comparable to rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests. When compared to our control group the specificity of fever for COVID-19 was 0.70. However, when fever was combined with complaints of loss of taste and smell, difficulty breathing, fatigue, chills, diarrhea, or stuffy nose the odds ratio of having COVID-19 was sufficiently high as to obviate the need to employ RTPCR or antigen testing to screen for and isolate coronavirus infected cases.

Conclusions -

Our findings suggest that home temperature monitoring could serve as an inexpensive convenient screen for the onset of COVID-19, encourage earlier isolation of potentially infected individuals, and more effectively reduce the spread of infection in closed spaces.

Markov modeling and performance analysis of infectious diseases with asymptomatic patients

After over three years of COVID-19, it has become clear that infectious diseases are difficult to eradicate, and humans remain vulnerable under their influence in a long period. The presence of presymptomatic and asymptomatic patients is a significant obstacle to preventing and eliminating infectious diseases. However, the long-term transmission of infectious diseases involving asymptomatic patients still remains unclear. To address this issue, this paper develops a novel Markov process for infectious diseases with asymptomatic patients by means of a continuous-time level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) process. The model accurately captures the transmission of infectious diseases by specifying several key parameters (or factors). To analyze the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic patients in the infectious disease transmission process, a simple sufficient condition for the stability of the Markov process of infectious diseases is derived using the mean drift technique. Then, the stationary probability vector of the QBD process is obtained by using RG-factorizations. A method of using the stationary probability vector is provided to obtain important performance measures of the model. Finally, some numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the model's feasibility through analyzing COVID-19 as an example. The impact of key parameters on the system performance evaluation and the infectious disease transmission process are analyzed. The methodology and results of this paper can provide theoretical and technical support for the scientific control of the long-term transmission of infectious diseases, and we believe that they can serve as a foundation for developing more general models of infectious disease transmission.

The Spatial Distribution of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever and Its Potential Vectors in Europe and Beyond

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is considered to be spreading across the globe, with many countries reporting new human CCHF cases in recent decades including Georgia, Türkiye, Albania, and, most recently, Spain. We update a human CCHF distribution map produced in 2015 to include global disease occurrence records to June 2022, and we include the recent records for Europe. The predicted distributions are based on long-established spatial modelling methods and are extended to include all European countries and the surrounding areas. The map produced shows the environmental suitability for the disease, taking into account the distribution of the most important known and potential tick vectors Hyalomma marginatum and Hyalomma lusitanicum, without which the disease cannot occur. This limits the disease's predicted distribution to the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean seaboard, along with Türkiye and the Caucasus, with a more patchy suitability predicted for inland Greece, the southern Balkans, and extending north to north-west France and central Europe. These updated CCHF maps can be used to identify the areas with the highest probability of disease and to therefore target areas where mitigation measures should currently be focused.

Evaluating SARS-CoV-2 Saliva and Dried Blood Spot Surveillance Strategies in a Congregate Population

The optimal approach to COVID-19 surveillance in congregate populations remains unclear. Our study at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, USA, assessed the concordance of antibody prevalence in longitudinally collected dried blood spots and saliva in a setting of frequent PCR-based testing. Our findings highlight the utility of salivary-based surveillance.

SARS-CoV-2 infection of polarized human airway epithelium induces necroptosis that causes airway epithelial barrier dysfunction

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19). One key feature associated with COVID-19 is excessive pro-inflammatory cytokine production that leads to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Although the cytokine storm induces inflammatory cell death in the host, which type of programmed cell death mechanism that occurs in various organs and cells remains elusive. Using an in vitro culture model of polarized human airway epithelium (HAE), we observed that necroptosis, but not apoptosis or pyroptosis, plays an essential role in the damage of the epithelial barrier of polarized HAE infected with SARS-CoV-2. Pharmacological inhibitors of necroptosis, necrostatin-2 and necrosulfonamide, efficiently prevented cell death and epithelial barrier dysfunction caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Moreover, the silencing of genes that are involved in necroptosis, RIPK1, RIPK3, and MLKL, ameliorated airway epithelial damage of the polarized HAE infected with SARS-CoV-2. This study, for the first time, confirms that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers necroptosis that disrupts the barrier function of human airway epithelia in vitro.

Monitoring the burden of COVID-19 and impact of hospital transfer policies on Australian aged-care residents in residential aged-care facilities in 2020

BACKGROUND

Residential aged-care facilities in Australia emerged as the high-risk setting the COVID-19 outbreaks due to community transmission. The vulnerable aged-care residents of these facilities suffered due to low hospital transfers and high mortality and morbidity rates. This study aimed to monitor and report the burden of COVID-19 in residential aged-care facilities across Australia and the impact of hospital transfer policies on resident hospitalisation during the first year of the pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study by collecting data from weekly aged-care outbreak reports published by open sources and official government sources between 1st March and 20th November 2020. A comprehensive line list of outbreaks was created using open-source data. The line list included the name of the facility, location, COVID-19 cases among residents, & staff, resident hospitalisations, mode of transmission, number of resident deaths, and state policies involving resident hospitalisation. We also searched the websites of these facilities to collect data on their COVID-19 policies for the residents, staff, and visitors. Statistical analyses were performed on the data obtained.

RESULTS

126 aged-care COVID-19 outbreaks were identified in Australia during the study period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 infections among aged-care residents in Australia was (1118.5 per 100,000 resident population) which is 10 times higher than the general population (107.6 per 100,000 population). The hospitalisation rate for aged-care residents in Australia was 0.93 per 100,000 population. The hospitalisation rate of aged-care residents in Victoria was 3.14 per 100,000 population despite having the highest COVID-19 cases. Excluding South Australia, all states followed ad-hoc case-by-case hospital transfer policies for aged-care residents.

CONCLUSION

This study documented a higher risk of COVID-19 infection for aged-care residents and workers but found low hospitalisation rates among residents across Australia. The hospitalisation rates in Victoria were higher than the national average but low when considering the COVID-19 infection rates in the state. The hospitalisation rates could have been impacted due to the state hospital transfer policies at that time. Immediate transfer of infected residents to hospitals may improve their survival and reduce the risk of infection to the other residents, as healthcare settings have more advanced infection control measures and are well-equipped with trained staff and resources.

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) via staff work and household networks in residential aged-care services in Victoria, Australia, May-October 2020

OBJECTIVE

Morbidity and mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been significant among elderly residents of residential aged-care services (RACS). To prevent incursions of COVID-19 in RACS in Australia, visitors were banned and aged-care workers were encouraged to work at a single site. We conducted a review of case notes and a social network analysis to understand how workplace and social networks enabled the spread of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among RACS.

DESIGN

Retrospective outbreak review.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Staff involved in COVID-19 outbreaks in RACS in Victoria, Australia, May-October 2020.

METHODS

The Victorian Department of Health COVID-19 case and contact data were reviewed to construct 2 social networks: (1) a work network connecting RACS through workers and (2) a household network connecting to RACS through households. Probable index cases were reviewed to estimate the number and size (number of resident cases and deaths) of outbreaks likely initiated by multisite work versus transmission via households.

RESULTS

Among 2,033 cases linked to an outbreak as staff, 91 (4.5%) were multisite staff cases. Forty-three outbreaks were attributed to multisite work and 35 were deemed potentially preventable had staff worked at a single site. In addition, 99 staff cases were linked to another RACS outbreak through their household contacts, and 21 outbreaks were attributed to staff-household transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Limiting worker mobility through single-site policies could reduce the chances of SARS-CoV-2 spreading from one RACS to another. However, initiatives that reduce the chance of transmission via household networks would also be needed.

Identify hidden spreaders of pandemic over contact tracing networks

The COVID-19 infection cases have surged globally, causing devastations to both the society and economy. A key factor contributing to the sustained spreading is the presence of a large number of asymptomatic or hidden spreaders, who mix among the susceptible population without being detected or quarantined. Due to the continuous emergence of new virus variants, even if vaccines have been widely used, the detection of asymptomatic infected persons is still important in the epidemic control. Based on the unique characteristics of COVID-19 spreading dynamics, here we propose a theoretical framework capturing the transition probabilities among different infectious states in a network, and extend it to an efficient algorithm to identify asymptotic individuals. We find that using pure physical spreading equations, the hidden spreaders of COVID-19 can be identified with remarkable accuracy, even with incomplete information of the contract-tracing networks. Furthermore, our framework can be useful for other epidemic diseases that also feature asymptomatic spreading.

TRACE-Omicron: Policy Counterfactuals to Inform Mitigation of COVID-19 Spread in the United States

The Omicron wave was the largest wave of COVID-19 pandemic to date, more than doubling any other in terms of cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In this paper, we present a large-scale agent-based model of policy interventions that could have been implemented to mitigate the Omicron wave. Our model takes into account the behaviors of individuals and their interactions with one another within a nationally representative population, as well as the efficacy of various interventions such as social distancing, mask wearing, testing, tracing, and vaccination. We use the model to simulate the impact of different policy scenarios and evaluate their potential effectiveness in controlling the spread of the virus. Our results suggest the Omicron wave could have been substantially curtailed via a combination of interventions comparable in effectiveness to extreme and unpopular singular measures such as widespread closure of schools and workplaces, and highlight the importance of early and decisive action.

Descriptive analysis of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak among health-care workers in a regional hospital in the Philippines

Objective

On 25 July 2022, trainees from the Field Epidemiology Training Programme in Northern Luzon, Philippines were sent to conduct an epidemiological investigation of six confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among staff of a regional hospital in Mountain Province. The investigation had three objectives: to profile the cases, identify the source and mode of transmission, and recommend prevention and control measures.

Methods

Descriptive epidemiology was used to investigate the outbreak, with the standard case definition issued by the Philippine Department of Health.

Results

A total of 167 hospital personnel and interns tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between 6 July and 31 August 2022, with a peak in the number of cases on 20 July. Among the cases, 57 (34%) had a history of travel, with 41 (25%) having travelled to Boracay island to attend team-building activities. Most cases were asymptomatic, and the most affected group was those aged 30-34 years. The highest number of cases occurred among nurses. It was discovered that the team-building activities on Boracay did not strictly adhere to safety protocols.

Discussion

This outbreak suggests that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among health-care workers can occur through contact with other staff members outside of the hospital setting and highlights the importance of strict adherence to safety protocols to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Association of epidemiological and clinical features with PCR cycle threshold values of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a cross-sectional study

The cycle threshold (Ct) in quantitative real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) is inversely correlated to the amount of viral nucleic acid or viral load and can be regarded as an indicator of infectivity. We examined the association of socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive cases with PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values at the time of diagnosis. SARS-CoV-2 cases reported between 12 October 2020 and 24 January 2021 in Regensburg were analyzed employing bivariate and multivariable methods. We included 3,029 SARS-CoV-2 cases (31% asymptomatic at diagnosis) and analyzed the association of case characteristics with Ct values in 2,606 cases. Among symptomatic patients, cough (38.0%), rhinitis (32.4%), headache (32.0), and fever/chills (29.9%) were the most frequent complaints. Ct values ≤20 were more frequent in symptomatic cases (20.9% vs. 11.3%), whereas Ct values >30 were more common in asymptomatic cases (32.6% vs. 18.0%). Ct values >20 and ≤30 were most common in symptomatic and asymptomatic cases (48.0% vs 40.7%). We observed lower median Ct values of E and N gene in symptomatic cases. In a random forest model, the total number of symptoms, respiratory symptoms, and age were most strongly associated with low Ct values. In conclusion, certain symptoms and age were associated with lower Ct values. Ct values can be used as a pragmatic approach in estimating infectivity at the first notification of a case and, thus, in guiding containment measures.

An analytical approach to evaluate the impact of age demographics in a pandemic

The time required to identify and confirm risk factors for new diseases and to design an appropriate treatment strategy is one of the most significant obstacles medical professionals face. Traditionally, this approach entails several clinical studies that may last several years, during which time strict preventative measures must be in place to contain the epidemic and limit the number of fatalities. Analytical tools may be used to direct and accelerate this process. This study introduces a six-state compartmental model to explain and assess the impact of age demographics by designing a dynamic, explainable analytics model of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. An age-stratified mathematical model taking the form of a deterministic system of ordinary differential equations divides the population into different age groups to better understand and assess the impact of age on mortality. It also provides a more accurate and effective interpretation of the disease evolution, specifically in terms of the cumulative numbers of infected cases and deaths. The proposed Kermack-Mckendrick model is incorporated into a non-linear least-squares optimization curve-fitting problem whose optimized parameters are numerically obtained using the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm. The curve-fitting model's efficiency is proved by testing the age-stratified model's performance on three U.S. states: Connecticut, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Our results confirm that splitting the population into different age groups leads to better fitting and forecasting results overall as compared to those achieved by the traditional method, i.e., without age groups. By using comprehensive models that account for age, gender, and ethnicity, regional public health authorities may be able to avoid future epidemics from inflicting more fatalities and establish a public health policy that reduces the burden on the elderly population.

Innate and adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and predisposing factors

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), has affected all countries worldwide. Although some symptoms are relatively mild, others are still associated with severe and even fatal clinical outcomes. Innate and adaptive immunity are important for the control of SARS-CoV-2 infections, whereas a comprehensive characterization of the innate and adaptive immune response to COVID-19 is still lacking and the mechanisms underlying immune pathogenesis and host predisposing factors are still a matter of scientific debate. Here, the specific functions and kinetics of innate and adaptive immunity involved in SARS-CoV-2 recognition and resultant pathogenesis are discussed, as well as their immune memory for vaccinations, viral-mediated immune evasion, and the current and future immunotherapeutic agents. We also highlight host factors that contribute to infection, which may deepen the understanding of viral pathogenesis and help identify targeted therapies that attenuate severe disease and infection.

Long-Term Care Research in the Context of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Bibliometric Analysis

Despite the increasing awareness of long-term care (LTC) research after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, little attention was given to quantitatively describe the evolution of the research field during this period. A total of 1024 articles retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection database were systematically analyzed using CiteSpace visualization software. The overall characteristics analysis showed that, in the context of the pandemic, attention to LTC research increased significantly-over 800 articles were published in the past two years. The USA, Canada, Italy, and England formed the leading LTC research group, which was consistent with the conclusions of existing bibliometric studies on LTC research before the outbreak. A rigorous analysis based on a dual perspective of references and keywords was applied to reveal that, compared with previous studies, in the context of the pandemic, the focus shifted from the mental and physical health status of older adults in need of LTC to the impact of the pandemic on those of older adults in LTC facilities, from the prevention of general epidemics to the prevention and response of significant public health emergencies, from providing and paying for LTC to strategies for LTC facilities to improve the quality of LTC and well-being of their residents during the pandemic. These findings can provide help and reference for academics, civil folks, and LTC practitioners, as well as help with the sustainable development of LTC research in the context of COVID-19 pandemic.

Living with HIV and Getting Vaccinated: A Narrative Review

After 40 years of its appearance, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains a leading public health challenge worldwide. Since the introduction of antiretroviral treatment (ART), HIV infection has become a chronic condition, and people living with HIV could have life expectancies close to those of the general population. People with HIV often have an increased risk of infection or experience more severe morbidity following exposure to vaccine-preventable diseases. Nowadays, several vaccines are available against bacteria and viruses. However, national and international vaccination guidelines for people with HIV are heterogeneous, and not every vaccine is included. For these reasons, we aimed to perform a narrative review about the vaccinations available for adults living with HIV, reporting the most updated studies performed for each vaccine among this population. We performed a comprehensive literature search through electronic databases (Pubmed-MEDLINE and Embase) and search engines (Google Scholar). We included English peer-reviewed publications (articles and reviews) on HIV and vaccination. Despite widespread use and guideline recommendations, few vaccine trials have been conducted in people with HIV. In addition, not all vaccines are recommended for people with HIV, especially for those with low CD4 cells count. Clinicians should carefully collect the history of vaccinations and patients' acceptance and preferences and regularly check the presence of antibodies for vaccine-preventable pathogens.

COVID-19 burden and influencing factors in Swiss long-term-care facilities: a cross-sectional analysis of a multicentre observational cohort

OBJECTIVES: To describe the burden of COVID-19 in Swiss long-term care facilities in 2020, to identify its influencing factors, and to assess vaccination rates among residents and healthcare workers at the end of the vaccine campaign in Switzerland in May 2021. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Long-term care facilities from two Swiss cantons (St. Gallen / Eastern Switzerland and Vaud / Western Switzerland). METHODS: We collected numbers of COVID-19 cases and related deaths and all-cause mortality for 2020, potential risk factors at the institutional level (e.g. size, infection prevention and control measures, and resident characteristics), and vaccination rates among residents and healthcare workers. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with resident mortality in 2020. RESULTS: We enrolled 59 long-term care facilities with a median of 46 (interquartile range [IQR]: 33–69) occupied beds. In 2020, the median COVID-19 incidence was 40.2 (IQR: 0–108.6) per 100 occupied beds, with higher rates in VD (49.9%) than in SG (32.5%; p = 0.037). Overall, 22.7% of COVID-19 cases died, of which 24.8% were COVID-19-related deaths. In the univariate analysis, higher resident mortality was associated with COVID-19 rates among residents (p < 0.001) and healthcare workers (p = 0.002) and age (p = 0.013). Lower resident mortality was associated with the proportion of single rooms (p = 0.012), isolation of residents with COVID-19 in single rooms (p = 0.003), symptom screening of healthcare workers (p = 0.031), limiting the number of visits per day (p = 0.004), and pre-scheduling visits (p = 0.037). In the multivariate analysis, higher resident mortality was only associated with age (p = 0.03) and the COVID-19 rate among residents (p = 0.013). Among 2936 residents, 2042 (69.9%) received ≥1 dose of the COVID-19 vaccine before 31 May 2021. Vaccine uptake among healthcare workers was 33.8%. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: COVID-19 burden was high but also highly variable in Swiss long-term care facilities. severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among healthcare workers was a modifiable factor associated with increased resident mortality. Symptom screening of healthcare workers appeared to be an effective preventive strategy and should be included in routine infection prevention and control measures. Promoting COVID-19 vaccine uptake among healthcare workers should be a priority in Swiss long-term care facilities.

Epidemiology and Clinical Presentation of COVID-19 in Older Adults

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remains asymptomatic in 33% to 90% of older adults depending on their immune status from prior infection, vaccination, and circulating strain. Older adults symptomatic with SARS-CoV-2 often both present atypically, such as with a blunted fever response, and develop more severe disease. Early and late reports showed that older adults have increased severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with higher case fatality rates and higher intensive care needs compared with younger adults. Infection and vaccine-induced antibody response and long-term effects of COVID-19 also differ in older adults.

Donor selection for adoptive cell therapy with CD45RA- memory T cells for patients with coronavirus disease 2019, and dexamethasone and interleukin-15 effects on the phenotype, proliferation and interferon gamma release

BACKGROUND AIMS

We have previously demonstrated the safety and feasibility of adoptive cell therapy with CD45RA- memory T cells containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-specific T cells for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 from an unvaccinated donor who was chosen based on human leukocyte antigen compatibility and cellular response. In this study, we examined the durability of cellular and humoral immunity within CD45RA- memory T cells and the effect of dexamethasone, the current standard of care treatment, and interleukin-15, a cytokine critically involved in T-cell maintenance and survival.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal analysis from previously severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-infected and infection-naïve individuals covering 21 months from infection and 10 months after full vaccination with the BNT162b2 Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

RESULTS

We observed that cellular responses are maintained over time. Humoral responses increased after vaccination but were gradually lost. In addition, dexamethasone did not alter cell functionality or proliferation of CD45RA- T cells, and interleukin-15 increased the memory T-cell activation state, regulatory T cell expression, and interferon gamma release.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the best donors for adoptive cell therapy would be recovered individuals and 2 months after vaccination, although further studies with larger cohorts would be needed to confirm this finding. Dexamethasone did not affect the characteristics of the memory T cells at a concentration used in the clinical practice and IL-15 showed a positive effect on SARS-CoV-2-specific CD45RA- T cells.