Questionnaire- and measurement-based individual thyroid doses in Ukraine resulting from the Chornobyl nuclear reactor accident

Prevalence of thyroid nodules in residents of Ukraine exposed as children or adolescents to iodine-131 from the Chornobyl accident

BACKGROUND

Although childhood exposure to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) is an established risk factor for thyroid cancer, evidence for an association with thyroid nodules is less clear. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between childhood I-131 exposure and prevalence of ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules overall and by nodule histology/cytology (neoplastic/suspicious/non-neoplastic), size (<10 mm/≥10 mm), and number (single/multiple).

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study of radiation dose (mean=0.53 gray, range:0.0003-31 gray) and screen-detected thyroid nodules conducted in 1998-2000 (median population age 21.5 years) in a cohort of 13,243 residents of Ukraine who were under 18 years at the time of the Chornobyl accident on April 26, 1986. Excess odds ratios per gray (EOR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 13,078 eligible individuals, we identified 358 (2.7%) with at least one thyroid nodule. Significantly increased dose-response associations were found for all nodules and nodule groups with doses <5 Gy except subjects with non-neoplastic nodules. Among subjects with doses <5 Gy, the EOR/Gy for neoplastic nodules (5.35;95% CI:2.19,15.5) was significantly higher than for non-neoplastic nodules (0.24;95% CI:-0.07,0.74), but the EOR/Gy did not vary by nodule size or number.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood exposure to I-131 is associated with an increased risk of thyroid nodules detected 12-14 years following exposure and the risk for neoplastic nodules is higher than for non-neoplastic nodules. Analyses of incident thyroid nodules may help clarify dose-response patterns by nodule characteristics and provide insights into thyroid nodule etiology.

Exposure to the Thyroid from Intake of Radioiodine Isotopes after the Chornobyl Accident. Report I: Revised Doses and Associated Uncertainties for the Ukrainian-American Cohort

Thyroid doses from intake of radioiodine isotopes (131I, 132Te+132I, and 133I) and associated uncertainties were revised for the 13,204 Ukrainian-American cohort members exposed in childhood and adolescence to fallout from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. The main changes related to the revision of the 131I thyroid activity measured in cohort members, the use of thyroid-mass values specific to the Ukrainian population, and the revision of the 131I ground deposition densities in Ukraine. Uncertainties in doses were assessed considering shared and unshared errors in the parameters of the dosimetry model. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 individual stochastic thyroid doses were calculated for each cohort member. The arithmetic mean of thyroid doses from intake of 131I, 132Te+132I, and 133I for the entire cohort was 0.60 Gy (median = 0.22 Gy). For 9,474 subjects (71.6% of the total), the thyroid doses were less than 0.5 Gy. Thyroid doses for 42 cohort members (0.3% of the total) exceeded 10 Gy while the highest dose was 35 Gy. Intake of 131I contributed around 95% to internal thyroid exposure from radioiodine isotopes. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic thyroid doses varied among cohort members from 1.4 to 4.3 with an arithmetic mean of 1.6 and a median of 1.4. It was shown that the contribution of shared errors to the dose uncertainty was small. The revised thyroid doses resulted, in average, in around 40% decrease for cohort members from Zhytomyr Oblast and an increase of around 24% and 35% for the cohort members from Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblast, respectively. Arithmetic mean of TD20 doses for the cohort was around 8% less than that estimated in TD10, 0.60 Gy vs. 0.65 Gy, respectively; however, global median of TD20 doses somewhat increased compared to TD10: 0.22 Gy vs. 0.19 Gy, respectively. The difference between TD10 and TD20 was mainly due to a revision of the individual 131I thyroid activity measured in the cohort members.

Evaluation of 131I transfer in the environment based on the available measurements made in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

This study evaluates the 131I transfer from ground deposition to the human thyroid gland after the Chernobyl accident using measurements of 131I concentrations in 1,252 soil, 124 grass, and 136 cow's milk samples as well as 131I thyroid activity measured in 3,100 individuals included in the Belarusian-American cohort. The following parameters of an 131I environmental transfer model used to calculate thyroid doses were evaluated in this study: (i) the interception factor of 131I by pasture grass, which was described by a purely empirical equation, (ii) the removal rate of 131I from pasture grass due to weathering and growth dilution, estimated to be 0.0676 d-1 (half-life of 10.3 d), (iii) the removal rate of 131I from cow's milk, estimated to be 0.0686 d-1 (half-life of 10.1 d), and (iv) the transfer coefficient of 131I from feed to cow's milk, arithmetic mean ± standard deviation of (6.7 ± 8.7) × 10-3 d L-1 (median = 4.0 × 10-3 d L-1). The individual model-based and measurement-based 131I thyroid activities for the Belarusian-American cohort members were calculated using different starting points of 131I transfer in the chain 'ground deposition' → 'vegetation' → 'cow's milk' → 'human thyroid', i.e., the measured 131I concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk. De novo thyroid doses from 131I for the 3,100 cohort members were calculated in this study using measured 131I activity concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk and were compared with those estimated previously for the same individuals using model-based 131I activity concentrations. It was shown that the use of measured instead of model-based 131I concentrations, in general, did not improve the measurement-based thyroid dose estimates. This is likely to be because there was already a good generic data base for the parameters used in this assessment. This finding indicates that, although the measurements of environmental samples are essential to estimate the parameter values of the 131I transfer model, the individual measurements of 131I thyroid activity are the most valuable information for estimating individual thyroid doses.

Thyroid doses in Ukraine due to 131I intake after the Chornobyl accident. Report II: dose estimates for the Ukrainian population

This paper describes the revision of the thyroid dosimetry system in Ukraine using new, recently available data on (i) revised 131I thyroid activities derived from direct thyroid measurements done in May and June 1986 in 146,425 individuals; (ii) revised estimates of 131I ground deposition density in each Ukrainian settlement; and (iii) estimates of age- and gender-specific thyroid masses for the Ukrainian population. The revised dosimetry system estimates the thyroid doses for the residents of the settlements divided into three levels depending on the availability of measurements of 131I thyroid activity among their residents. Thyroid doses due to 131I intake were estimated in this study for different age and gender groups of residents of 30,353 settlements in 24 oblasts of Ukraine, Autonomous Republic Krym, and cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol. Among them, dose estimates for 835 settlements were based on 131I thyroid activities measured in more than ten residents (the first level), for 690 settlements based on such measurements done in neighboring settlements (the second level), and for 28,828 settlements based on a purely empirical relationship between the thyroid doses due to 131I intake and the cumulative 131I ground deposition densities in settlements (the third level). The arithmetic mean of the thyroid doses due to 131I intake among 146,425 measured individuals was 0.23 Gy (median of 0.094 Gy); about 99.8% of them received doses less than 5 Gy. The highest oblast-average population-weighted thyroid doses were estimated for residents of Chernihiv (0.15 Gy for arithmetic mean and 0.060 Gy for geometric mean), Kyiv (0.13 and 0.051 Gy) and Zhytomyr (0.12 and 0.049 Gy) Oblasts followed by Rivne (0.10 and 0.039 Gy) and Cherkasy (0.088 and 0.032 Gy) Oblasts, and Kyiv City (0.076 and 0.031 Gy). The geometric mean of thyroid doses estimated in this study for the entire Ukraine essentially did not change in comparison with a previous estimate, 0.020 vs. 0.021 Gy, respectively. The ratio of geometric mean of oblast-specific thyroid doses estimated in the present study to previously calculated doses varied from 0.51 to 3.9. The highest increase in thyroid doses was found in areas remote from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant with a low level of radioactive contamination: by 3.9 times for Zakarpatska Oblast, 3.5 times for Luhansk Oblasts and 2.9 times for Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. The developed thyroid dosimetry system is being used to revise the thyroid doses due to 131I intake for the individuals of post-Chornobyl radiation epidemiological studies: the Ukrainian-American cohort of individuals exposed during childhood and adolescence, the Ukrainian in utero cohort, and the Chornobyl Tissue Bank.

Thyroid doses in Ukraine due to 131I intake after the Chornobyl accident. Report I: revision of direct thyroid measurements

The increased risk of thyroid cancer among individuals exposed during childhood and adolescence to Iodine-131 (¹³¹I) is the main statistically significant long-term effect of the Chornobyl accident. Several radiation epidemiological studies have been carried out or are currently in progress in Ukraine, to assess the risk of radiation-related health effects in exposed populations. About 150,000 measurements of ¹³¹I thyroid activity, so-called 'direct thyroid measurements', performed in May-June 1986 in the Ukrainian population served as the main sources of data used to estimate thyroid doses to the individuals of these studies. However, limitations in the direct thyroid measurements have been recently recognized including improper measurement geometry and unknown true values of calibration coefficients for unchecked thyroid detectors. In the present study, a comparative analysis of ¹³¹I thyroid activity measured by calibrated and unchecked devices in residents of the same neighboring settlements was conducted to evaluate the correct measurement geometry and calibration coefficients for measuring devices. As a result, revised values of ¹³¹I thyroid activity were obtained. On average, in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Lviv and Chernihiv Oblasts and in the city of Kyiv, the revised values of the ¹³¹I thyroid activities were found to be 10-25% higher than previously reported, while in Zhytomyr Oblast, the values of the revised activities were found to be lower by about 50%. New sources of shared and unshared errors associated with estimates of ¹³¹I thyroid activity were identified. The revised estimates of thyroid activity are recommended to be used to develop an updated Thyroid Dosimetry system (TD20) for the entire population of Ukraine as well as to revise the thyroid doses for the individuals included in post-Chornobyl radiation epidemiological studies: the Ukrainian-American cohort of individuals exposed during childhood and adolescence, the Ukrainian in utero cohort and the Chornobyl Tissue Bank.

Bardoxolone-Methyl (CDDO-Me) Impairs Tumor Growth and Induces Radiosensitization of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma Cells

Radiotherapy represents a common treatment strategy for patients suffering from oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). However, application of radiotherapy is immanently limited by radio-sensitivity of normal tissue surrounding the tumor sites. In this study, we used normal human epithelial keratinocytes (NHEK) and OSCC cells (Cal-27) as models to investigate radio-modulating and anti-tumor effects of the synthetic triterpenoid 2-cyano-3,12-dioxooleana-1,9,-dien-28-oic acid methyl ester (CDDO-Me). Nanomolar CDDO-Me significantly reduced OSCC tumor xenograft-growth in-ovo applying the chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) assay. In the presence of CDDO-Me reactive oxygen species (ROS) were found to be reduced in NHEK when applying radiation doses of 8 Gy, whereas ROS levels in OSCC cells rose significantly even without radiation. In parallel, CDDO-Me was shown to enhance metabolic activity in malignant cells only as indicated by significant accumulation of reducing equivalents NADPH/NADH. Furthermore, antioxidative heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) levels were only enhanced in NHEK and not in the OSCC cell line, as shown by immunoblotting. Clonogenic survival was left unchanged by CDDO-Me treatment in NHEK but revealed to be abolished almost completely in OSCC cells. Our results indicate anti-cancer and radio-sensitizing effects of CDDO-Me treatment in OSCC cells, whereas nanomolar CDDO-Me failed to provoke clear detrimental consequences in non-malignant keratinocytes. We conclude, that the observed differential aftermath of CDDO-Me treatment in malignant OSCC and non-malignant skin cells may be utilized to broaden the therapeutic range of clinical radiotherapy.

Transcriptome network of the papillary thyroid carcinoma radiation marker CLIP2

Background

We present a functional gene association network of the CLIP2 gene, generated by de-novo reconstruction from transcriptomic microarray data. CLIP2 was previously identified as a potential marker for radiation induced papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) of young patients in the aftermath of the Chernobyl reactor accident. Considering the rising thyroid cancer incidence rates in western societies, potentially related to medical radiation exposure, the functional characterization of CLIP2 is of relevance and contributes to the knowledge about radiation-induced thyroid malignancies.

Methods

We generated a transcriptomic mRNA expression data set from a CLIP2-perturbed thyroid cancer cell line (TPC-1) with induced CLIP2 mRNA overexpression and siRNA knockdown, respectively, followed by gene-association network reconstruction using the partial correlation-based approach GeneNet. Furthermore, we investigated different approaches for prioritizing differentially expressed genes for network reconstruction and compared the resulting networks with existing functional interaction networks from the Reactome, Biogrid and STRING databases. The derived CLIP2 interaction partners were validated on transcript and protein level.

Results

The best reconstructed network with regard to selection parameters contained a set of 20 genes in the 1st neighborhood of CLIP2 and suggests involvement of CLIP2 in the biological processes DNA repair/maintenance, chromosomal instability, promotion of proliferation and metastasis. Peptidylprolyl Isomerase Like 3 (PPIL3), previously identified as a potential direct interaction partner of CLIP2, was confirmed in this study by co-expression at the transcript and protein level.

Conclusion

In our study we present an optimized preselection approach for genes subjected to gene-association network reconstruction, which was applied to CLIP2 perturbation transcriptome data of a thyroid cancer cell culture model. Our data support the potential carcinogenic role of CLIP2 overexpression in radiation-induced PTC and further suggest potential interaction partners of the gene.

NEUROENDOCRINE EFFECTS OF PRENATAL IRRADIATION FROM RADIOACTIVE IODINE (review)

BACKGROUND

Neuroendocrine effects of the prenatal radiation exposure from radioactive iodine in an event of nuclear power reactor accidents are a key issue in the field of radiation medicine and radiation safety because of a dramatic radiosensitivity of the developing organism.

OBJECTIVE

Review of contemporary epidemiological, clinical and experimental data on neuroendocrine effects of prenatal exposure to 131I.

OBJECT AND METHODS

Search in the PubMed/MEDLINE and Google Scholar abstract databases, along with a manual search for the relevant data sources.

RESULTS

Estimated absorbed doses of intrauterine thyroid irradiation from radioactive iodine were obtained based on ICRP Publication 88, both with estimates of effective radiation doses on embryo and fetus, and estimates of the brain equivalent doses upon exposure in utero. The latter ones are subject to updating. The evidence-based data has been presented regarding a radiation-associated reduction of head and chest circumference at birth, as well as a radiation-associated excess of goiter with large thyroid nodules, and possibly of thyroid cancer after a prenatal exposure to 131I radionuclides. Data on intrauterine brain damage are controversial, but most researchers share the view that there are cognitive and emotional-behavioral disorders due to prenatal and postnatal irradiation and psy- chosocial impacts. Incidence increase of non-cancerous endocrine disorders and degenerative vascular disease of retina was noted. An experimental model of intrauterine irradiation from 131I on Wistar rats was for the first time ever created, extrapolating the radioneuroembryological effects in rats to individuals prenatally exposed after the Chornobyl disaster. Late neuropsychiatric and endocrine effects may be resulted from the relatively short-term impact of ionizing radiation at a level previously been considered safe. The necessity of neuropsychiatric and endocrinological monitoring of individuals exposed prenatally to ionizing radiation after the Chornobyl catastrophe throughout their life is substantiated. Experimental animal studies are a key direction in the further research of radiation effects, especially associated with low radiation doses. Further experimental and clinical neuroradiobio- logical studies aimed at exploration of the effect of ionizing radiation on hippocampal neurogenesis are most rele- vant nowadays.

Thyroid doses due to Iodine-131 inhalation among Chernobyl cleanup workers

Several hundred thousand individuals, called 'cleanup workers' or 'liquidators', who took part in decontamination and recovery activities between 1986 and 1990 within the 30-km zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, were mainly exposed to external irradiation. However, those who were involved in cleanup activities during the 10-day period of atmospheric releases also received doses to the thyroid gland due to internal irradiation resulting essentially from inhalation of ¹³¹I. The paper presents the methodology and results of the calculation of individual thyroid doses for cleanup workers. The model that was used considers several factors, including the ground-level outdoor air concentrations of ¹³¹I at the locations of residence and work of the cleanup workers, the reduction of ¹³¹I activity in inhaled air associated with indoor occupancy, the time spent indoors, the breathing rate, which depends on the type of physical activity, and the possible intake of potassium iodine (KI) for iodine prophylaxis. Thyroid doses were calculated for a group of 594 cleanup workers with individual measurements of exposure rate against the neck, called 'direct thyroid measurements', that were performed from 30 April to 5 May 1986. The measured values of exposure rate were corrected to subtract the contribution of short-lived radioiodine isotopes in the thyroid to the detector response. The average thyroid dose due to ¹³¹I inhalation by the cleanup workers was estimated to be 180 mGy, while the median was 110 mGy. Most of the cleanup workers (73%) received thyroid doses ranging from 50 to 500 mGy. The highest individual dose from ¹³¹I inhalation among the cleanup workers with direct thyroid measurements was 4.5 Gy. To validate the model, the ¹³¹I activities in the thyroids that were calculated using the model were compared with those derived from the direct thyroid measurements. The mean of the ratios of measured-to-calculated activities of ¹³¹I in the thyroid was found to be 1.6 while the median of those ratios was 0.8. For 60 cleanup workers with direct thyroid measurements, a detailed description of hour-by-hour whereabouts and work history was available. For these cleanup workers the mean of the ratios of measured-to-calculated activities was found to be 1.2 and the median of those ratios was 1.0. These encouraging results suggest that the thyroid dose due to ¹³¹I inhalation could be estimated for Chernobyl cleanup workers with a reasonable degree of reliability even in the absence of direct thyroid measurements. However, this conclusion assumes that detailed information on whereabouts and work history could be obtained for those cleanup workers who were not measured.

Investigation of the Relationship Between Radiation Dose and Gene Mutations and Fusions in Post-Chernobyl Thyroid Cancer

Background

Exposure to ionizing radiation during childhood is a well-established risk factor for thyroid cancer. However, the genetic mechanisms of radiation-associated carcinogenesis remain not fully understood.

Methods

In this study, we used targeted next-generation sequencing and RNA-Seq to study 65 papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from patients in the Ukrainian-American cohort with measurement-based iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid doses received as a result of the Chernobyl accident. We fitted linear regression models to evaluate differences in distribution of risk factors for PTC according to type of genetic alteration and logistic regression models to evaluate the I-131 dose response. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

Driver mutations were identified in 96.9% of these thyroid cancers, including point mutations in 26.2% and gene fusions in 70.8% of cases. Novel driver fusions such as POR-BRAF, as well as STRN-ALK fusions that have not been implicated in radiation-associated cancer before, were found. The mean I-131 dose in cases with point mutations was 0.2 Gy (range = 0.013-1.05 Gy), statistically significantly lower than 1.4 Gy (range = 0.009-6.15 Gy) for cases with fusions (P < .001). No driver point mutations were found in tumors from individuals who received more than 1.1 Gy of radiation. Relative to tumors with point mutations, the proportion of tumors with gene fusions increased with radiation dose, reaching 87.8% among individuals exposed to 0.3 Gy or higher. With a limited study sample size, the estimated odds ratio at 1 Gy was 20.01 (95% confidence interval = 2.57 to 653.02, P < .001). In addition, after controlling for I-131 dose, we found higher odds ratios for gene fusion-positive PTCs associated with several specific demographic and geographic features.

Conclusions

Our data provide support for a link between I-131 thyroid dose and generation of carcinogenic gene fusions, the predominant mechanism of thyroid cancer associated with radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident.

A systematic experimental study of parameters influencing 131-iodine in vivo spectroscopic measurements using age-specific thyroid phantoms

In case of nuclear accident, the internal exposure monitoring of the population will preferably focus on the detection of ¹³¹I in the thyroid by in vivo monitoring. In most cases, the calibration of in vivo monitoring is performed with an adult thyroid phantom, which raises doubts regarding the relevance of child exposure assessment. In this study, the influence on the calibration of the thyroid volume, the counting distance and the positioning variations are studied experimentally in a systematic way. A NaI and a germanium detector along with a realistic age-specific set of four thyroid phantoms were used to carry out this study. The thyroid phantom volumes correspond to the following ages: 5, 10, 15 and adult. It was found that the counting efficiency varies linearly with the thyroid volumes for both detectors and whatever the phantom-detector distance is. The variation in counting distance strongly influences the measurement. Whatever the thyroid volume, a 30% difference in efficiency was found between the measurement at the contact and 1 cm for the NaI detector. A mathematical model giving the variation of the counting efficiency as a function of phantom-detector distance is provided. The study of positioning uncertainty has shown that the lateral/vertical displacements induce negligible efficiency variations and that it is relatively independent of the thyroid volume. The counting distance is a major parameter, which must be considered to assess the uncertainty of the subjects' measurements. The data reported here might serve to extract useful orders of magnitude when similar detectors are used. For other detectors, a similar trend might be expected and the information provided here could reduce the amount of experimental work needed to obtain it.

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangements in radiation-related human papillary thyroid carcinoma after the Chernobyl accident

Childhood radiation exposure has been associated with increased papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) risk. The role of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangements in radiation‐related PTC remains unclear, but STRN‐ALK fusions have recently been detected in PTCs from radiation exposed persons after Chernobyl using targeted next‐generation sequencing and RNA‐seq. We investigated ALK and RET gene rearrangements as well as known driver point mutations in PTC tumours from 77 radiation‐exposed patients (mean age at surgery 22.4 years) and PTC tumours from 19 non‐exposed individuals after the Chernobyl accident. ALK rearrangements were detected by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) and confirmed with immunohistochemistry (IHC); point mutations in the BRAF and RAS genes were detected by DNA pyrosequencing. Among the 77 tumours from exposed persons, we identified 7 ALK rearrangements and none in the unexposed group. When combining ALK and RET rearrangements, we found 24 in the exposed (31.2%) compared to two (10.5%) in the unexposed group. Odds ratios increased significantly in a dose‐dependent manner up to 6.2 (95%CI: 1.1, 34.7; p = 0.039) at Iodine‐131 thyroid doses >500 mGy. In total, 27 cases carried point mutations of BRAF or RAS genes, yet logistic regression analysis failed to identify significant dose association. To our knowledge we are the first to describe ALK rearrangements in post‐Chernobyl PTC samples using routine methods such as FISH and IHC. Our findings further support the hypothesis that gene rearrangements, but not oncogenic driver mutations, are associated with ionising radiation‐related tumour risk. IHC may represent an effective method for ALK‐screening in PTCs with known radiation aetiology, which is of clinical value since oncogenic ALK activation might represent a valuable target for small molecule inhibitors.

Thyroid neoplasia risk is increased nearly 30 years after the Chernobyl accident

To evaluate risk of thyroid neoplasia nearly 30 years following exposure to radioactive iodine (I-131) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, we conducted a fifth cycle of thyroid screening of the Ukrainian-American cohort during 2012-2015, following four previous screening cycles started in 1998. We identified 47 thyroid cancers (TC) and 33 follicular adenomas (FA) among 10,073 individuals who were <18 years at the time of the accident and had a mean I-131 dose of 0.62 Gy. We found a significant I-131 dose response for both TC and FA, with an excess odd ratio per Gy of 1.36 (95% CI: 0.39-4.15) and 2.03 (95% CI: 0.55-6.69), respectively. The excess risk of malignant and benign thyroid neoplasia persists nearly three decades after exposure and underscores the importance of continued follow-up of this cohort to characterize long-term pattern of I-131 risk.

Integration of a radiation biomarker into modeling of thyroid carcinogenesis and post-Chernobyl risk assessment

Strong evidence for the statistical association between radiation exposure and disease has been produced for thyroid cancer by epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl accident. However, limitations of the epidemiological approach in order to explore health risks especially at low doses of radiation appear obvious. Statistical fluctuations due to small case numbers dominate the uncertainty of risk estimates. Molecular radiation markers have been searched extensively to separate radiation-induced cancer cases from sporadic cases. The overexpression of the CLIP2 gene is the most promising of these markers. It was found in the majority of papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from young patients included in the Chernobyl tissue bank. Motivated by the CLIP2 findings we propose a mechanistic model which describes PTC development as a sequence of rate-limiting events in two distinct paths of CLIP2-associated and multistage carcinogenesis. It integrates molecular measurements of the dichotomous CLIP2 marker from 141 patients into the epidemiological risk analysis for about 13 000 subjects from the Ukrainian-American cohort which were exposed below age 19 years and were put under enhanced medical surveillance since 1998. For the first time, a radiation risk has been estimated solely from marker measurements. Cross checking with epidemiological estimates and model validation suggests that CLIP2 is a marker of high precision. CLIP2 leaves an imprint in the epidemiological incidence data which is typical for a driver gene. With the mechanistic model, we explore the impact of radiation on the molecular landscape of PTC. The model constitutes a unique interface between molecular biology and radiation epidemiology.

Doses for post-Chernobyl epidemiological studies: are they reliable?

On 26 April 2016, thirty years will have elapsed since the occurrence of the Chernobyl accident, which has so far been the most severe in the history of the nuclear reactor industry. Numerous epidemiological studies were conducted to evaluate the possible health consequences of the accident. Since the credibility of the association between the radiation exposure and health outcome is highly dependent on the adequacy of the dosimetric quantities used in these studies, this paper makes an effort to overview the methods used to estimate individual doses and the associated uncertainties in the main analytical epidemiological studies (i.e. cohort or case-control) related to the Chernobyl accident. Based on the thorough analysis and comparison with other radiation studies, the authors conclude that individual doses for the Chernobyl analytical epidemiological studies have been calculated with a relatively high degree of reliability and well-characterized uncertainties, and that they compare favorably with many other non-Chernobyl studies. The major strengths of the Chernobyl studies are: (1) they are grounded on a large number of measurements, either performed on humans or made in the environment; and (2) extensive effort has been invested to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the dose estimates. Nevertheless, gaps in the methodology are identified and suggestions for the possible improvement of the current dose estimates are made.

Histopathological features of papillary thyroid carcinomas detected during four screening examinations of a Ukrainian-American cohort

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the histopathology of papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) diagnosed in irradiated populations. We evaluated the associations between iodine-131 dose and the histopathological characteristics of post-Chernobyl PTCs, the changes in these characteristics over time, and their associations with selected somatic mutations.

METHODS

This study included 115 PTCs diagnosed in a Ukrainian-American cohort (n=13,243) during prescreening and four successive thyroid screenings. Of these PTCs, 65 were subjected to somatic mutation profiling. All individuals were <18 years at the time of the Chernobyl accident and had direct thyroid radioactivity measurements. Statistical analyses included multivariate linear and logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified a borderline significant linear-quadratic association (P=0.063) between iodine-131 dose and overall tumour invasiveness (presence of extrathyroidal extension, lymphatic/vascular invasion, and regional or distant metastases). Irrespective of dose, tumours with chromosomal rearrangements were more likely to have lymphatic/vascular invasion than tumours without chromosomal rearrangements (P=0.020) or tumours with BRAF or RAS point mutations (P=0.008). Controlling for age, there were significant time trends in decreasing tumour size (P<0.001), the extent of lymphatic/vascular invasion (P=0.005), and overall invasiveness (P=0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

We determined that the invasive properties of PTCs that develop in iodine-131-exposed children may be associated with radiation dose. In addition, based on a subset of cases, tumours with chromosomal rearrangements appear to have a more invasive phenotype. The increase in small, less invasive PTCs over time is a consequence of repeated screening examinations.

Genomic copy number analysis of Chernobyl papillary thyroid carcinoma in the Ukrainian-American Cohort

One of the major consequences of the 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident was a dramatic increase in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) incidence, predominantly in patients exposed to the radioiodine fallout at young age. The present study is the first on genomic copy number alterations (CNAs) of PTCs of the Ukrainian-American cohort (UkrAm) generated by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of CNA profiles revealed a significant enrichment of a subgroup of patients with female gender, long latency (>17 years) and negative lymph node status. Further, we identified single CNAs that were significantly associated with latency, gender, radiation dose and BRAF V600E mutation status. Multivariate analysis revealed no interactions but additive effects of parameters gender, latency and dose on CNAs. The previously identified radiation-associated gain of the chromosomal bands 7q11.22-11.23 was present in 29% of cases. Moreover, comparison of our radiation-associated PTC data set with the TCGA data set on sporadic PTCs revealed altered copy numbers of the tumor driver genes NF2 and CHEK2. Further, we integrated the CNA data with transcriptomic data that were available on a subset of the herein analyzed cohort and did not find statistically significant associations between the two molecular layers. However, applying hierarchical clustering on a 'BRAF-like/RAS-like' transcriptome signature split the cases into four groups, one of which containing all BRAF-positive cases validating the signature in an independent data set.

Dose-dependent expression of CLIP2 in post-Chernobyl papillary thyroid carcinomas

This study showed a clear dose-response relationship for the CLIP2 radiation marker in post-Chernobyl papillary thyroid carcinoma cohorts for young patients and hints to different molecular mechanisms in tumors induced at low doses compared to moderate/high doses.

A previous study on papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC) in young patients who were exposed to ¹³¹iodine from the Chernobyl fallout revealed an exclusive gain of chromosomal band 7q11.23 in exposed cases compared to an age-matched control cohort. CLIP2, a gene located within band 7q11.23 was shown to be differentially expressed between exposed and non-exposed cases at messenger RNA and protein level. Therefore, a standardized procedure for CLIP2 typing of PTCs has been developed in a follow-up study. Here we used CLIP2 typing data on 117 post-Chernobyl PTCs from two cohorts of exposed patients with individual dose estimates and 24 non-exposed controls to investigate a possible quantitative dose-response relationship of the CLIP2 marker. The ‘Genrisk-T’ cohort consisted of 45 PTCs and the ‘UkrAm’ cohort of 72 PTCs. Both cohorts differed in mean dose (0.59 Gy Genrisk-T, 1.2 Gy UkrAm) and mean age at exposure (AaE) (2 years Genrisk-T, 8 years UkrAm), whilst the median latency (16 years Genrisk-T, 18 years UkrAm) was comparable. We analyzed the association between the binary CLIP2 typing and continuous thyroid dose with logistic regression. A clear positive dose-response relationship was found for young PTC cases [age at operation (AaO) < 20 years, AaE < 5 years]. In the elder age group a higher proportion of sporadic tumors is assumed due to a negligible dose response, suggesting different molecular mechanisms in sporadic and radiation-induced cases. This is further supported by the association of elder patients (AaO > 20 years) with positivity for BRAF V600E mutation.

ETV6-NTRK3 is a common chromosomal rearrangement in radiation-associated thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

In their previous analysis of papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) from an Ukrainian-American cohort that was exposed to iodine-131 ((131) I) from the Chernobyl accident, the authors identified RET/PTC rearrangements and other driver mutations in 60% of tumors.

METHODS

In this study, the remaining mutation-negative tumors from that cohort were analyzed using RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction to identify novel chromosomal rearrangements and to characterize their relation with radiation dose.

RESULTS

The ETS variant gene 6 (ETV6)-neurotrophin receptor 3 (NTRK3) rearrangement (ETV6-NTRK3) was identified by RNA-Seq in a tumor from a patient who received a high (131) I dose. Overall, the rearrangement was detected in 9 of 62 (14.5%) post-Chernobyl PTCs and in 3 of 151 (2%) sporadic PTCs (P = .019). The most common fusion type was between exon 4 of ETV6 and exon 14 of NTRK3. The prevalence of ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangement in post-Chernobyl PTCs was associated with increasing (131) I dose, albeit at borderline significance (P = .126). The group of rearrangement-positive PTCs (ETV6-NTRK3, RET/PTC, PAX8-PPARγ) was associated with significantly higher dose response compared with the group of PTCs with point mutations (BRAF, RAS; P < .001). In vitro exposure of human thyroid cells to 1 gray of (131) I and γ-radiation resulted in the formation of ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangement at a rate of 7.9 × 10(-6) cells and 3.0 × 10(-6) cells, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors report the occurrence of ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangements in thyroid cancer and demonstrate that this rearrangement is significantly more common in tumors associated with exposure to (131) I and has a borderline significant dose response. Moreover, ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangement can be directly induced in thyroid cells by ionizing radiation in vitro and, thus, may represent a novel mechanism of radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

Thyroid cancer study among Ukrainian children exposed to radiation after the Chornobyl accident: improved estimates of the thyroid doses to the cohort members

In collaboration with the Ukrainian Research Center for Radiation Medicine, the U.S. National Cancer Institute initiated a cohort study of children and adolescents exposed to Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine to better understand the long-term health effects of exposure to radioactive iodines. All 13,204 cohort members were subjected to at least one direct thyroid measurement between 30 April and 30 June 1986 and resided at the time of the accident in the northern parts of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, or Chernihiv Oblasts, which were the most contaminated territories of Ukraine as a result of radioactive fallout from the Chornobyl accident. Thyroid doses for the cohort members, which had been estimated following the first round of interviews, were re-evaluated following the second round of interviews. The revised thyroid doses range from 0.35 mGy to 42 Gy, with 95% of the doses between 1 mGy and 4.2 Gy, an arithmetic mean of 0.65 Gy, and a geometric mean of 0.19 Gy. These means are 70% of the previous estimates, mainly because of the use of country-specific thyroid masses. Many of the individual thyroid dose estimates show substantial differences because of the use of an improved questionnaire for the second round of interviews. Limitations of the current set of thyroid dose estimates are discussed. For the epidemiologic study, the most notable improvement is a revised assessment of the uncertainties, as shared and unshared uncertainties in the parameter values were considered in the calculation of the 1,000 stochastic estimates of thyroid dose for each cohort member. This procedure makes it possible to perform a more realistic risk analysis.

Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on estimates of thyroid cancer risk among Ukrainian children and adolescents exposed from the Chernobyl accident

The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-response patterns were examined in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 13,127 persons aged <18 at the time of the accident who were resident in the most radioactively contaminated regions of Ukraine. We extended earlier analyses in this cohort by adjusting for dose error in the recently developed TD-10 dosimetry. Three methods of statistical correction, via two types of regression calibration, and Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood, were applied to the doses that can be derived from the ratio of thyroid activity to thyroid mass. The two components that make up this ratio have different types of error, Berkson error for thyroid mass and classical error for thyroid activity. The first regression-calibration method yielded estimates of excess odds ratio of 5.78 Gy⁻¹ (95% CI 1.92, 27.04), about 7% higher than estimates unadjusted for dose error. The second regression-calibration method gave an excess odds ratio of 4.78 Gy⁻¹ (95% CI 1.64, 19.69), about 11% lower than unadjusted analysis. The Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood method produced an excess odds ratio of 4.93 Gy⁻¹ (95% CI 1.67, 19.90), about 8% lower than unadjusted analysis. There are borderline-significant (p = 0.101–0.112) indications of downward curvature in the dose response, allowing for which nearly doubled the low-dose linear coefficient. In conclusion, dose-error adjustment has comparatively modest effects on regression parameters, a consequence of the relatively small errors, of a mixture of Berkson and classical form, associated with thyroid dose assessment.

Reconstruction of individual thyroid doses to the Ukrainian subjects enrolled in the Chernobyl Tissue Bank

The Chernobyl Tissue Bank (CTB) is an organisation that collects and stores samples of tumoral thyroid tissue obtained from Ukrainian and Russian subjects who were treated surgically for a thyroid cancer and had been exposed to (131)I from the Chernobyl accident. By 2012, the CTB had collected specimens of thyroid tissue from 2267 residents of Ukraine for the purpose of radiation research. Arithmetic mean thyroid doses and uncertainties have been estimated for all but 24 subjects for whom residence at the time of exposure was not found. The subjects have been classified into six groups or sub-groups according to the type of dosimetry-related information that is available for each of them. Excluding the 325 subjects with negligible radiation exposure, the arithmetic mean of the thyroid dose over all subjects is estimated as 0.4 Gy, with individual values ranging from <1 mGy to 13 Gy. The uncertainties in the individual thyroid dose estimates, characterised by the geometric standard deviations of their probability distributions, range from 1.3 to 8.7, with an arithmetic mean of 3.2.

Iodine-131 dose-dependent gene expression: alterations in both normal and tumour thyroid tissues of post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers

BACKGROUND

A strong, consistent association between childhood irradiation and subsequent thyroid cancer provides an excellent model for studying radiation carcinogenesis.

METHODS

We evaluated gene expression in 63 paired RNA specimens from frozen normal and tumour thyroid tissues with individual iodine-131 (I-131) doses (0.008-8.6 Gy, no unirradiated controls) received from Chernobyl fallout during childhood (Ukrainian-American cohort). Approximately half of these randomly selected samples (32 tumour/normal tissue RNA specimens) were hybridised on 64 whole-genome microarrays (Agilent, 4 × 44 K). Associations between I-131 dose and gene expression were assessed separately in normal and tumour tissues using Kruskal-Wallis and linear trend tests. Of 155 genes significantly associated with I-131 after Bonferroni correction and with ≥2-fold increase per dose category, we selected 95 genes. On the remaining 31 RNA samples these genes were used for validation purposes using qRT-PCR.

RESULTS

Expression of eight genes (ABCC3, C1orf9, C6orf62, FGFR1OP2, HEY2, NDOR1, STAT3, and UCP3) in normal tissue and six genes (ANKRD46, CD47, HNRNPH1, NDOR1, SCEL, and SERPINA1) in tumour tissue was significantly associated with I-131. PANTHER/DAVID pathway analyses demonstrated significant over-representation of genes coding for nucleic acid binding in normal and tumour tissues, and for p53, EGF, and FGF signalling pathways in tumour tissue.

CONCLUSION

The multistep process of radiation carcinogenesis begins in histologically normal thyroid tissue and may involve dose-dependent gene expression changes.

Thyroid dose estimates for a cohort of Belarusian children exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident

The U.S. National Cancer Institute, in collaboration with the Belarusian Ministry of Health, is conducting a study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in a cohort of about 12,000 persons who were exposed to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. The study subjects were 18 years old or younger at the time of exposure and resided in Belarus in the most contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts, as well as in the city of Minsk. All cohort members had at least one direct thyroid measurement made in April-June 1986. Individual data on residential history, consumption of milk, milk products and leafy vegetables as well as administration of stable iodine were collected for all cohort members by means of personal interviews conducted between 1996 and 2007. Based on the estimated (131)I activities in the thyroids, which were derived from the direct thyroid measurements, and on the responses to the questionnaires, individual thyroid doses from intakes of (131)I were reconstructed for all cohort members. In addition, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for the following minor exposure pathways: (a) intake of short-lived (132)I, (133)I and (132)Te by inhalation and ingestion; (b) external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground; and (c) ingestion intake of (134)Cs and (137)Cs. Intake of (131)I was the major pathway for thyroid exposure; its mean contribution to the thyroid dose was 92%. The thyroid doses from (131)I intakes varied from 0.5 mGy to almost 33 Gy; the mean was estimated to be 0.58 Gy, while the median was 0.23 Gy. The reconstructed doses are being used to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in the cohort.

RET/PTC and PAX8/PPARγ chromosomal rearrangements in post-Chernobyl thyroid cancer and their association with iodine-131 radiation dose and other characteristics

BACKGROUND

Childhood exposure to iodine-131 from the 1986 nuclear accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine, led to a sharp increase in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) incidence in regions surrounding the reactor. Data concerning the association between genetic mutations in PTCs and individual radiation doses are limited.

METHODS

Mutational analysis was performed on 62 PTCs diagnosed in a Ukrainian cohort of patients who were < 18 years old in 1986 and received 0.008 to 8.6 Gy of (131) I to the thyroid. Associations between mutation types and (131) I dose and other characteristics were explored.

RESULTS

RET/PTC (ret proto-oncogene/papillary thyroid carcinoma) rearrangements were most common (35%), followed by BRAF (15%) and RAS (8%) point mutations. Two tumors carrying PAX8/PPARγ (paired box 8/peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma) rearrangement were identified. A significant negative association with (131) I dose for BRAF and RAS point mutations and a significant concave association with (131) I dose, with an inflection point at 1.6 Gy and odds ratio of 2.1, based on a linear-quadratic model for RET/PTC and PAX8/PPARγ rearrangements were found. The trends with dose were significantly different between tumors with point mutations and rearrangements. Compared with point mutations, rearrangements were associated with residence in the relatively iodine-deficient Zhytomyr region, younger age at exposure or surgery, and male sex.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide the first demonstration of PAX8/PPARγ rearrangements in post-Chernobyl tumors and show different associations for point mutations and chromosomal rearrangements with (131) I dose and other factors. These data support the relationship between chromosomal rearrangements, but not point mutations, and (131) I exposure and point to a possible role of iodine deficiency in generation of RET/PTC rearrangements in these patients.

Database of meteorological and radiation measurements made in Belarus during the first three months following the Chernobyl accident

Results of all available meteorological and radiation measurements that were performed in Belarus during the first three months after the Chernobyl accident were collected from various sources and incorporated into a single database. Meteorological information such as precipitation, wind speed and direction, and temperature in localities were obtained from meteorological station facilities. Radiation measurements include gamma-exposure rate in air, daily fallout, concentration of different radionuclides in soil, grass, cow's milk and water as well as total beta-activity in cow's milk. Considerable efforts were made to evaluate the reliability of the measurements that were collected. The electronic database can be searched according to type of measurement, date, and location. The main purpose of the database is to provide reliable data that can be used in the reconstruction of thyroid doses resulting from the Chernobyl accident.

Iodine-131 dose dependent gene expression in thyroid cancers and corresponding normal tissues following the Chernobyl accident

The strong and consistent relationship between irradiation at a young age and subsequent thyroid cancer provides an excellent model for studying radiation carcinogenesis in humans. We thus evaluated differential gene expression in thyroid tissue in relation to iodine-131 (I-131) doses received from the Chernobyl accident. Sixty three of 104 papillary thyroid cancers diagnosed between 1998 and 2008 in the Ukrainian-American cohort with individual I-131 thyroid dose estimates had paired RNA specimens from fresh frozen tumor (T) and normal (N) tissue provided by the Chernobyl Tissue Bank and satisfied quality control criteria. We first hybridized 32 randomly allocated RNA specimen pairs (T/N) on 64 whole genome microarrays (Agilent, 4×44 K). Associations of differential gene expression (log₂(T/N)) with dose were assessed using Kruskall-Wallis and trend tests in linear mixed regression models. While none of the genes withstood correction for the false discovery rate, we selected 75 genes with a priori evidence or P kruskall/P trend <0.0005 for validation by qRT-PCR on the remaining 31 RNA specimen pairs (T/N). The qRT-PCR data were analyzed using linear mixed regression models that included radiation dose as a categorical or ordinal variable. Eleven of 75 qRT-PCR assayed genes (ACVR2A, AJAP1, CA12, CDK12, FAM38A, GALNT7, LMO3, MTA1, SLC19A1, SLC43A3, ZNF493) were confirmed to have a statistically significant differential dose-expression relationship. Our study is among the first to provide direct human data on long term differential gene expression in relation to individual I-131 doses and to identify a set of genes potentially important in radiation carcinogenesis.

Karyopathological traits of thyrocytes and exposure to radioiodines in Belarusian children and adolescents following the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant

The Belarus-American (BelAm) thyroid study cohort consists of persons who were 0-18 years of age at the time of exposure to radioactive iodine fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and who have undergone serial thyroid screenings with referral for fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) using standardized criteria. We investigated thyrocyte nuclear abnormalities in cytological samples from FNABs in 75 BelAm subjects with single and multiple thyroid nodules and 47 nodular goiter patients from Leningrad, Russia, unexposed to Chernobyl fallout. Nuclear abnormalities examined included internuclear chromosome bridges and derivative nuclei with broken bridges (i.e., "tailed" nuclei), which are formed from dicentric and ring chromosomes and thus may be cellular markers of radiation exposure. Among subjects with single-nodular goiter, thyrocytes with bridges were present in 86.8% of the exposed BelAm cohort compared with 27.0% of unexposed controls. The average frequency of thyrocytes with bridges and with tailed nuclei was also significantly higher in the BelAm subjects than in controls. Among subjects with multinodular goiters, thyrocytes with bridges were present in 75.7% of exposed BelAm patients compared with 16.7% of unexposed controls; thyrocytes with tailed nuclei were observed in all of the BelAm subjects but in only 40% of controls, and the mean frequencies of bridges and tailed nuclei were significantly higher in the exposed group. Unusually, long bridges were detected in 29% of BelAm patients with single-nodular goiters and 35% of those with multinodular goiters, while no such abnormalities were observed among patients from the Leningrad region. In the exposed subjects from BelAm, we also found positive correlations between their estimated dose of Iodine-131 from Chernobyl fallout and the frequency of tailed nuclei (p = 0.008) and bridges (p = 0.09). Further study is needed to confirm that these phenomena represent consequences of radiation exposure in the human organism.

Thyroid cancer in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident (in the framework of the Ukraine-US Thyroid Project)

As a result of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, millions of residents of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were exposed to large doses of radioactive iodine isotopes, mainly I-131. The purpose of the Ukraine-American (UkrAm) and Belarus-American (BelAm) projects are to quantify the risks of thyroid cancer in the framework of a classical cohort study, comprising subjects who were aged under 18 years at the time of the accident, had direct measurements of thyroid I-131 radioactivity taken within two months after the accident, and were residents of three heavily contaminated northern regions of Ukraine (Zhitomir, Kiev, and Chernigov regions). Four two-year screening examination cycles were implemented from 1998 until 2007 to study the risks associated with thyroid cancer due to the iodine exposure caused during the Chernobyl accident. A standardised procedure of clinical examinations included: thyroid palpation, ultrasound examination, blood collection followed by a determination of thyroid hormone levels, urinary iodine content test, and fine-needle aspiration if required. Among the 110 cases of thyroid cancer diagnosed in UkrAm as the result of four screening examinations, 104 cases (94.5%) of papillary carcinomas, five cases (4.6%) of follicular carcinomas, and one case (0.9%) of medullary carcinoma were diagnosed.

I-131 dose response for incident thyroid cancers in Ukraine related to the Chornobyl accident

BACKGROUND

Current knowledge about Chornobyl-related thyroid cancer risks comes from ecological studies based on grouped doses, case-control studies, and studies of prevalent cancers.

OBJECTIVE

To address this limitation, we evaluated the dose-response relationship for incident thyroid cancers using measurement-based individual iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid dose estimates in a prospective analytic cohort study.

METHODS

The cohort consists of individuals < 18 years of age on 26 April 1986 who resided in three contaminated oblasts (states) of Ukraine and underwent up to four thyroid screening examinations between 1998 and 2007 (n = 12,514). Thyroid doses of I-131 were estimated based on individual radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, environmental transport models, and interview data. Excess radiation risks were estimated using Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

Sixty-five incident thyroid cancers were diagnosed during the second through fourth screenings and 73,004 person-years (PY) of observation. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity on relative and absolute scales, although the excess relative risk (ERR) model described data better than did the excess absolute risk (EAR) model. The ERR per gray was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.43-6.34], and the EAR per 10⁴ PY/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI, 0.04-5.78). The ERR per gray varied significantly by oblast of residence but not by time since exposure, use of iodine prophylaxis, iodine status, sex, age, or tumor size.

CONCLUSIONS

I-131-related thyroid cancer risks persisted for two decades after exposure, with no evidence of decrease during the observation period. The radiation risks, although smaller, are compatible with those of retrospective and ecological post-Chornobyl studies.

Estimation of the thyroid doses for ukrainian children exposed in utero after the chernobyl accident

This paper describes methods for estimating thyroid doses to Ukrainian children who were subjects of an epidemiological study of prenatal exposure and presents the calculated doses. Participants were 2,582 mother-child pairs in which the mother had been pregnant at the time of the Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 or in the 2-3 mo following when (131)I in fallout was still present. Among these, 1,494 were categorized as "exposed;" a comparison group of 1,088 was considered "relatively unexposed." Individual in utero thyroid dose estimates were found to range from less than 1 mGy to 3,200 mGy, with an arithmetic mean of 72 mGy. Thyroid doses varied primarily according to stage of pregnancy at the time of exposure and level of radioactive contamination at the location of residence. There was a marked difference between the dose distributions of the exposed and comparison groups, although nine children in the latter group had calculated doses in the range 100-200 mGy. For those children who were born after the accident and prior to the end of June 1986, postnatal thyroid doses were also estimated. About 7.7% (200) of the subjects received thyroid doses after birth that were at least 10% of their cumulative doses.

Methods for estimation of radiation risk in epidemiological studies accounting for classical and Berkson errors in doses

With a binary response Y, the dose-response model under consideration is logistic in flavor with pr(Y=1 | D) = R (1+R)(-1), R = λ(0) + EAR D, where λ(0) is the baseline incidence rate and EAR is the excess absolute risk per gray. The calculated thyroid dose of a person i is expressed as Dimes=fiQi(mes)/Mi(mes). Here, Qi(mes) is the measured content of radioiodine in the thyroid gland of person i at time t(mes), Mi(mes) is the estimate of the thyroid mass, and f(i) is the normalizing multiplier. The Q(i) and M(i) are measured with multiplicative errors Vi(Q) and ViM, so that Qi(mes)=Qi(tr)Vi(Q) (this is classical measurement error model) and Mi(tr)=Mi(mes)Vi(M) (this is Berkson measurement error model). Here, Qi(tr) is the true content of radioactivity in the thyroid gland, and Mi(tr) is the true value of the thyroid mass. The error in f(i) is much smaller than the errors in ( Qi(mes), Mi(mes)) and ignored in the analysis. By means of Parametric Full Maximum Likelihood and Regression Calibration (under the assumption that the data set of true doses has lognormal distribution), Nonparametric Full Maximum Likelihood, Nonparametric Regression Calibration, and by properly tuned SIMEX method we study the influence of measurement errors in thyroid dose on the estimates of λ(0) and EAR. The simulation study is presented based on a real sample from the epidemiological studies. The doses were reconstructed in the framework of the Ukrainian-American project on the investigation of Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine, and the underlying subpolulation was artificially enlarged in order to increase the statistical power. The true risk parameters were given by the values to earlier epidemiological studies, and then the binary response was simulated according to the dose-response model.

Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus among children and adolescents exposed to radioiodine after the Chornobyl accident

BACKGROUND

Previous studies showed an increased risk of thyroid cancer among children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines released after the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident, but the effects of screening, iodine deficiency, age at exposure and other factors on the dose-response are poorly understood.

METHODS

We screened 11 970 individuals in Belarus aged 18 years or younger at the time of the accident who had estimated (131)I thyroid doses based on individual thyroid activity measurements and dosimetric data from questionnaires. The excess odds ratio per gray (EOR/Gy) was modelled using linear and linear-exponential functions.

RESULTS

For thyroid doses <5 Gy, the dose-response was linear (n=85; EOR/Gy=2.15, 95% confidence interval: 0.81-5.47), but at higher doses the excess risk fell. The EOR/Gy was significantly increased among those with prior or screening-detected diffuse goiter, and larger for men than women, and for persons exposed before age 5 than those exposed between 5 and 18 years, although not statistically significant. A somewhat higher EOR/Gy was estimated for validated pre-screening cases.

CONCLUSION

10-15 years after the Chornobyl accident, thyroid cancer risk was significantly increased among individuals exposed to fallout as children or adolescents, but the risk appeared to be lower than in other Chornobyl studies and studies of childhood external irradiation.

Prevalence of hyperthyroidism after exposure during childhood or adolescence to radioiodines from the chornobyl nuclear accident: dose-response results from the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study

Relatively few data are available on the prevalence of hyperthyroidism (TSH concentrations of <0.3 mIU/liter, with normal or elevated concentrations of free T4) in individuals exposed to radioiodines at low levels. The accident at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) nuclear plant in Ukraine on April 26, 1986 exposed large numbers of residents to radioactive fallout, principally to iodine-131 ((131)I) (mean and median doses  =  0.6 Gy and 0.2 Gy). We investigated the relationship between (131)I and prevalent hyperthyroidism among 11,853 individuals exposed as children or adolescents in Ukraine who underwent an in-depth, standardized thyroid gland screening examination 12-14 years later. Radioactivity measurements taken shortly after the accident were available for all subjects and were used to estimate individual thyroid doses. We identified 76 cases of hyperthyroidism (11 overt, 65 subclinical). Using logistic regression, we tested a variety of continuous risk models and conducted categorical analyses for all subjects combined and for females (53 cases, n  =  5,767) and males (23 cases, n  =  6,086) separately but found no convincing evidence of a dose-response relationship between (131)I and hyperthyroidism. There was some suggestion of elevated risk among females in an analysis based on a dichotomous dose model with a threshold of 0.5 Gy chosen empirically (OR  =  1.86, P  =  0.06), but the statistical significance level was reduced (P  =  0.13) in a formal analysis with an estimated threshold. In summary, after a thorough exploration of the data, we found no statistically significant dose-response relationship between individual (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hyperthyroidism.

The FOXE1 locus is a major genetic determinant for radiation-related thyroid carcinoma in Chernobyl

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) among individuals exposed to radioactive iodine in their childhood or adolescence is a major internationally recognized health consequence of the Chernobyl accident. To identify genetic determinants affecting individual susceptibility to radiation-related PTC, we conducted a genome-wide association study employing Belarusian patients with PTC aged 0-18 years at the time of accident and age-matched Belarusian control subjects. Two series of genome scans were performed using independent sample sets, and association with radiation-related PTC was evaluated. Meta-analysis by the Mantel-Haenszel method combining the two studies identified four SNPs at chromosome 9q22.33 showing significant associations with the disease (Mantel-Haenszel P: mhp = 1.7 x 10(-9) to 4.9 x 10(-9)). The association was further reinforced by a validation analysis using one of these SNP markers, rs965513, with a new set of samples (overall mhp = 4.8 x 10(-12), OR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.43-1.91). Rs965513 is located 57-kb upstream to FOXE1, a thyroid-specific transcription factor with pivotal roles in thyroid morphogenesis and was recently reported as the strongest genetic risk marker of sporadic PTC in European populations. Of interest, no association was obtained between radiation-related PTC and rs944289 (mhp = 0.17) at 14p13.3 which showed the second strongest association with sporadic PTC in Europeans. These results show that the complex pathway underlying the pathogenesis may be partly shared by the two etiological forms of PTC, but their genetic components do not completely overlap each other, suggesting the presence of other unknown etiology-specific genetic determinants in radiation-related PTC.

Current use and future needs of biodosimetry in studies of long-term health risk following radiation exposure

Biodosimetry measurements can potentially be an important and integral part of the dosimetric methods used in long-term studies of health risk following radiation exposure. Such studies rely on accurate estimation of doses to the whole body or to specific organs of individuals in order to derive reliable estimates of cancer risk. However, dose estimates based on analytical dose reconstruction (i.e., models) or personnel monitoring measurements (i.e., film badges) can have substantial uncertainty. Biodosimetry can potentially reduce uncertainty in health risk studies by corroboration of model-based dose estimates or by using them to assess bias in dose models. While biodosimetry has begun to play a more significant role in long-term health risk studies, its use is still generally limited in that context due to one or more factors including inadequate limits of detection, large inter-individual variability of the signal measured, high per-sample cost, and invasiveness. Presently, the most suitable biodosimetry methods for epidemiologic studies are chromosome aberration frequencies from fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of peripheral blood lymphocytes and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements made on tooth enamel. Both types of measurements, however, are usually invasive and require biological samples that can be difficult to obtain. Moreover, doses derived from these methods are not always directly relevant to the tissues of interest. To increase the value of biodosimetry to epidemiologic studies, a number of issues need to be considered, including limits of detection, effects of inhomogenous exposure of the body, how to extrapolate from the tissue sampled to the tissues of interest, and how to adjust dosimetry models applied to large populations based on sparse biodosimetry measurements. The requirements of health risk studies suggest a set of characteristics that, if satisfied by new biodosimetry methods, would increase the overall usefulness of biodosimetry in determining radiation health risks.

NA cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chernobyl accident: cytohistopathologic correlation and accuracy of fine-needle aspiration biopsy in nodules detected during the first screening in Ukraine (1998-2000)

BACKGROUND

The Ukrainian American Cohort Study was established to evaluate the risk of thyroid disorders in a group exposed as children and adolescents to 131I by the Chernobyl accident (arithmetic mean thyroid dose, 0.79 grays). Individuals are screened by palpation and ultrasound and are referred to surgery according to fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNA). However, the accuracy of FNA cytology for detecting histopathologically confirmed malignancy after this level of internal exposure to radioiodines is unknown.

METHODS

During the first screening cycle (1998-2000), 13,243 individuals were examined, 356 individuals with thyroid nodules were referred for FNA, 288 individuals completed the procedure, 85 individuals were referred to surgery, 82 individuals underwent surgery, and preoperative cytology was available for review in 78 individuals. Cytologic interpretation for the nodule that resulted in surgical referral was correlated with final pathomorphology; discrepancies were reviewed retrospectively; and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of FNA cytology were calculated.

RESULTS

All 24 cytologic interpretations that were definite for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) were confirmed histopathologically (PPV, 100%); and, of 11 cytologic interpretations that were suspicious for PTC, 10 were confirmed (PPV, 90.9%). Ten of 41 FNAs that were interpreted as either definite or suspect for follicular neoplasm were confirmed as malignant (PPV, 24.4%), including 2 follicular thyroid cancers and 8 PTCs (all but 1 of the follicular or mixed subtypes). Depending on whether a cytologic interpretation of follicular neoplasm was considered "positive" or "negative," the sensitivity was 100% and 77.3%, respectively; similarly, the respective specificity was 17.6% and 97.1%, the respective PPV was 61.1% and 97.1%, and the respective NPV was 100% and 76.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children and adolescents who were exposed to 131I after the Chernobyl accident and were evaluated 12 to 14 years later, thyroid cytology had a sensitivity and a predictive value similar to those reported in unexposed populations.

Subclinical hypothyroidism after radioiodine exposure: Ukrainian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident (1998-2000)

BACKGROUND

Hypothyroidism is the most common thyroid abnormality in patients treated with high doses of iodine-131 (131I). Data on risk of hypothyroidism from low to moderate 131I thyroid doses are limited and inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted to quantify the risk of hypothyroidism prevalence in relation to 131I doses received because of the Chornobyl accident.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional (1998-2000) screening study of thyroid diseases in a cohort of 11,853 individuals < 18 years of age at the time of the accident, with individual thyroid radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months of the accident. We measured thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine, and antibodies to thyroid peroxidase (ATPO) in serum.

RESULTS

Mean age at examination of the analysis cohort was 21.6 years (range, 12.2-32.5 years), with 49% females. Mean 131I thyroid dose was 0.79 Gy (range, 0-40.7 Gy). There were 719 cases with hypothyroidism (TSH > 4 mIU/L), including 14 with overt hypothyroidism. We found a significant, small association between (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hypothyroidism, with the excess odds ratio (EOR) per gray of 0.10 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.21). EOR per gray was higher in individuals with ATPO < or = 60 U/mL compared with individuals with ATPO > 60 U/mL (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to find a significant relationship between prevalence of hypothyroidism and individual (131)I thyroid doses due to environmental exposure. The radiation increase in hypothyroidism was small (10% per Gy) and limited largely to subclinical hypothyroidism. Prospective data are needed to evaluate the dynamics of radiation-related hypothyroidism and clarify the role of antithyroid antibodies.

A screening study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases among individuals exposed in utero to iodine-131 from Chernobyl fallout

BACKGROUND

Like stable iodine, radioiodines concentrate in the thyroid gland, increasing thyroid cancer risk in exposed children. Data on exposure to the embryonic/fetal thyroid are rare, raising questions about use of iodine 131 (I-131) in pregnant women. We present here estimated risks of thyroid disease from exposure in utero to I-131 fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional thyroid screening study (palpation, ultrasound, thyroid hormones, and, if indicated, fine needle aspiration) from 2003 to 2006. Participants were 2582 mother-child pairs from Ukraine in which the mother had been pregnant at the time of the accident on April 26, 1986, or 2 months after the time during which I-131 fallout was still present (1494 from contaminated areas, 1088 in the comparison group). Individual cumulative in utero thyroid dose estimates were derived from estimated I-131 activity in the mother's thyroid (mean 72 mGy; range 0-3230 mGy).

RESULTS

There were seven cases of thyroid carcinoma and one case of Hurthle cell neoplasm identified as a result of the screening. Whereas the estimated excess odds ratio per gray for thyroid carcinoma was elevated (excess odds ratio per gray 11.66), it was not statistically significant (P = 0.12). No radiation risks were identified for other thyroid diseases.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that in utero exposure to radioiodines may have increased the risk of thyroid carcinoma approximately 20 yr after the Chernobyl accident, supporting a conservative approach to medical uses of I-131 during pregnancy.

Factors associated with elevated serum concentrations of anti-TPO antibodies in subjects with and without diffuse goitre. Results from the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases following the Chornobyl accident

OBJECTIVES

To examine factors associated with the prevalence of elevated anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies (ATPO) among iodine-deficient adolescents and young adults and test whether associations vary according to the presence of diffuse goitre.

DESIGN

Subjects were members of the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study exposed to the Chornobyl accident whose (131)I thyroid dose estimates were below 0.2 Gy.

MEASUREMENTS

The odds ratios (ORs) for ATPO above 60 U/ml were estimated using logistic regression models for a number of factors in the total population (N = 5133), and separately for thyroid disease-free subjects (N = 3875), those with diffuse goitre (N = 921), and diffuse goitre without autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT; N = 883).

RESULTS

Elevated ATPO was found in 9.9% of the total population and ORs were significantly higher in females, older individuals, those examined in earlier calendar years, residents of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts, subjects with a family history of thyroid disease, higher thyroid ultrasound volume, suppressed or elevated TSH, blood collection in March to May, very low thyroglobulin (Tg), and shorter serum storage time. When thyroid disease-free subjects and those with diffuse goitre were compared, there were few differences in antibody prevalence, and after excluding individuals with AIT, the only difference was an increased prevalence of elevated ATPO at low urinary iodine in those with goitre alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Although a number of factors are associated with the prevalence of elevated ATPO in our study group, with the exception of urinary iodine these factors are independent of goitre, and differences between thyroid disease-free subjects and those with diffuse goitre are largely due to AIT.

Radiation dosimetry for highly contaminated Belarusian, Russian and Ukrainian populations, and for less contaminated populations in Europe

The explosions at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) in Ukraine early in the morning of 26 April 1986 led to a considerable release of radioactive materials during 10 d. The cloud from the reactor spread many different radionuclides, particularly those of iodine (131I) and cesium (134Cs and 137Cs), over the majority of European countries, but the greatest contamination occurred over vast areas of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. As the major health effect of Chernobyl is an elevated thyroid cancer incidence in children and adolescents, much attention has been paid to the thyroid doses resulting from intakes of 131I, which were delivered within 2 mo following the accident. The thyroid doses received by the inhabitants of the contaminated areas of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine varied in a wide range, mainly according to age, level of ground contamination, milk consumption rate, and origin of the milk that was consumed. Reported individual thyroid doses varied up to approximately 40,000 mGy, with average doses of a few to 1,000 mGy, depending on the area where people were exposed. In addition, the presence in the environment of long-lived 134Cs and 137Cs has led to a relatively homogeneous exposure of all organs and tissues of the body via external and internal irradiation, albeit at low rates. Excluding the thyroid doses, the whole-body (or effective) dose estimates for the general population accumulated during 20 y after the accident (1986-2005) range from a few millisieverts (mSv) to some hundred mSv with an average dose of approximately 10 mSv in the contaminated areas of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. In other European countries, both the thyroid and the effective doses are, on average, much smaller.

A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: pathology analysis of thyroid cancer cases in Ukraine detected during the first screening (1998-2000)

BACKGROUND

The Ukrainian American Cohort Study evaluated the risk of thyroid disorders in a group of individuals who were younger than age 18 years at the time of the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident. In this article, the authors describe the pathology of thyroid carcinomas detected in the first screening.

METHODS

From 1998 to 2000, 13,243 individuals completed the first cycle of screening examinations. Eighty patients underwent surgery between 1998 and 2004. Intraoperative and postoperative pathologic studies were performed at the Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Kyiv.

RESULTS

Pathologic analysis revealed 45 thyroid carcinomas, including 43 papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) (95.6%) and 2 follicular thyroid carcinomas (FTCs) (4.4%). TNM classification (5th edition) of the PTCs included 8 T1 tumors (18.6%), 16 T2 tumors (37.2%), and 19 T4 tumors (44.2%). Fifteen PTCs (34.9%) were N1a,N1b, and 3 PTCs (7.0%) were M1. Among the PTCs, 8 exhibited the classical papillary histologic pattern (18.6%), 14 exhibited a follicular histologic pattern (32.6%), 5 exhibited a solid histologic pattern (11.6%), and 16 exhibited a mixed histologic pattern (37.2%). Both FTCs had a microfollicular-solid structure. Eleven of 20 cohort members who underwent surgery before the first screening had PTCs. Regional metastases (63.6%) and distant metastases (18.2%) were more common in this group.

CONCLUSIONS

Multifocal growth, lymphatic and blood vessel invasion, extrathyroid spread, and regional and distant metastases were more frequent in less differentiated PTCs (>30% solid structure). Small carcinomas (</=10 mm) comprised 23.3% of PTCs, and most of those (8 of 10 small carcinomas; 80%) were of the papillary-follicular subtype and therefore were more differentiated. The solid subtype of PTC was associated with shorter latency, especially in individuals who were diagnosed before the first screening. The histology of post-Chornobyl cancers is changing with time.

Autoimmune thyroiditis and exposure to iodine 131 in the Ukrainian cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: results from the first screening cycle (1998-2000)

CONTEXT

Due to the Chornobyl accident, millions were exposed to radioactive isotopes of iodine and some received appreciable iodine 131 (131I) doses. A subsequent increase in thyroid cancer has been largely attributed to this exposure, but evidence concerning autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT) remains inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to quantify risk of AIT after 131I exposure.

DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Baseline data were collected from the first screening cycle (1998-2000) of a large cohort of radiation-exposed individuals (n = 12,240), residents of contaminated, iodine-deficient territories of Ukraine. Study individuals were under the age of 18 yr on April 26, 1986, and had thyroid radioactivity measurements made shortly after the accident.

OUTCOMES

AIT was defined a priori based on various combinations of elevated antibodies to thyroid peroxidase (ATPO), TSH, and clinical findings; elevated ATPO were considered to be an indicator of thyroid autoimmunity.

RESULTS

No significant association was found between 131I thyroid dose estimates and AIT, but prevalence of elevated ATPO demonstrated a modest, significant association with 131I that was well described by several concave models. This relationship was apparent in individuals with moderately elevated ATPO and euthyroid, thyroid disease-free individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Twelve to 14 yr after the Chornobyl accident, no radiation-related increase in prevalence of AIT was found in a large cohort study, the first in which 131I thyroid doses were estimated using individual radioactivity measurements. However, a dose-response relationship with ATPO prevalence raises the possibility that clinically important changes may occur over time. Thus, further follow-up and analysis of prospective data in this cohort are necessary.