THE DYNAMIC MODEL FOR REST COMPLETION IN PEACH BUDS

Losing ground: projections of climate-driven bloom shifts and their implications for the future of California's almond orchards

Climate change is expected to impact the spring phenology of perennial trees, potentially altering the suitability of land for their cultivation. In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change on the bloom timing of almond orchards, focusing on California, the world's leading region for almond production. By analyzing historical climatic data, employing a model that considers hourly temperatures and fall non-structural carbohydrates to predict bloom dates, and examining various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios, we assess the potential impacts of climate shifts on plant phenology and, consequently, on land suitability for almond farming. Our findings reveal that, within the next 30 years, the land suitable for almond production will not undergo significant changes. However, under unchanged emission scenarios, the available land to support almond orchard farming could decline between 48 to 73% by the end of the century. This reduction corresponds with an early shift in bloom time from the average Day of Year (DOY) 64 observed over the past 40 years to a projected earlier bloom between DOY 28-33 by 2100. These results emphasize the critical role climate shifts have in shaping future land use strategies for almond production in Central Valley, California. Consequently, understanding and addressing these factors is essential for the sustainable management and preservation of agricultural land, ensuring long-term food security and economic stability in the face of a rapidly changing climate.

Effects of climate change on Platanus flowering in Western Mediterranean cities: Current trends and future projections

Ornamental trees can reduce some of the negative impacts of urbanization on citizens but some species, such as Platanus spp., produce pollen with high allergenic potential. This can exacerbate the symptomatology in allergic patients, being a public health problem. Therefore, it would be relevant to determine the environmental conditions regulating the flowering onset of the Platanus species. The aims of this study were to use aerobiological records for modelling the thermal requirements of Platanus flowering and to make future projections based on the effects that climate change could have on it under several possible future scenarios. This study was conducted in Badajoz and Malaga, two Western Mediterranean cities with different climate conditions. In the first step, several main pollen season definitions were applied to the aerobiological data and their onset dates were compared with in situ phenological observations. The main pollen season definition that best fitted the Platanus flowering onset was based on the 4th derivative of a logistic function. This definition was used as a proxy to model the thermal requirements of the Platanus flowering onset by applying the PhenoFlex statistical framework. The errors obtained by this model during the external validation were 3.2 days on average, so it was fed with future temperature estimations to determine possible future trends. According to the different models, the flowering onset of Platanus in Badajoz will show heterogeneous responses in the short and medium term due to different balances in the chilling-forcing compensation, while it will clearly delay in Malaga due to a significant delay in the chilling requirement fulfilment. This may increase the chances of cross-reactivity episodes with other pollen types in the future, increasing its impact on public health.

Chilling Requirements of Apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) Cultivars Using Male Meiosis as a Dormancy Biomarker

Apricot has undergone an important cultivar renewal during the last years in response to productive and commercial changes in the crop. The impact of the sharka disease (plum pox virus) prompted the release of cultivars resistant/tolerant to this virus, leading to a major cultivar renewal worldwide. This has caused high variability in chilling requirements on new releases that remain unknown in many cases. In many apricot-growing areas, the lack of winter chilling is becoming a limiting factor in recent years. To deal with this situation, growers must choose cultivars well adapted to their areas. However, the information available on the agroclimatic requirements of the cultivars is very limited. To fill this gap, in this work, we have characterized the chilling requirements of 13 new apricot cultivars from Europe (France, Greece and Spain) and North America (USA) in two experimental collections in Aragón (Spain). We established the chilling period using male meiosis as a biomarker for endodormancy release over two years. Chilling requirements ranged from 51.9 Chill Portions (CP) to 70.9 CP. Knowing the chilling requirements of cultivars will help growers to select suitable cultivars adapted to the chill availability of their region.

Identifying appropriate prediction models for estimating hourly temperature over diverse agro-ecological regions of India

The present study tests the accuracy of four models in estimating the hourly air temperatures in different agroecological regions of the country during two major crop seasons, kharif and rabi, by taking daily maximum and minimum temperatures as input. These methods that are being used in different crop growth simulation models were selected from the literature. To adjust the biases of estimated hourly temperature, three bias correction methods (Linear regression, Linear scaling and Quantile mapping) were used. When compared with the observed data, the estimated hourly temperature, after bias correction, is reasonably close to the observed during both kharif and rabi seasons. The bias-corrected Soygro model exhibited its good performance at 14 locations, followed by the WAVE model and Temperature models at 8 and 6 locations, respectively during the kharif season. In the case of rabi season, the bias-corrected Temperature model appears to be accurate at more locations (21), followed by WAVE and Soygro models at 4 and 2 locations, respectively. The pooled data analysis showed the least error between estimated (uncorrected and bias-corrected) and observed hourly temperature from 04 to 08 h during kharif season while it was 03 to 08 h during the rabi season. The results of the present study indicated that Soygro and Temperature models estimated hourly temperature with better accuracy at a majority of the locations situated in the agroecological regions representing different climates and soil types. Though the WAVE model worked well at some of the locations, estimation by the PL model was not up to the mark in both kharif and rabi seasons. Hence, Soygro and Temperature models can be used to estimate hourly temperature data during both kharif and rabi seasons, after the bias correction by the Linear Regression method. We believe that the application of the study would facilitate the usage of hourly temperature data instead of daily data which in turn improves the precision in predicting phenological events and bud dormancy breaks, chilling hour requirement etc.

Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops

Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.

Climatic suitability projection for deciduous fruit tree cultivation in main producing regions of northern China under climate warming

China is the largest fruit producer and consumer market in the world. Understanding the growing conditions responses to climate change is the key to predict future site suitability of main cultivation areas for certain deciduous fruit trees. In this study, we used dynamic and growing degree day models driven by downscaled daily temperatures from 22 global climate models to project the effects of climate change on growing conditions for deciduous fruit trees under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over 2 future time periods (represented by central years 2050s and 2085s) in northern China. The results showed a general increase of available winter chill for all sites under RCP4.5 scenario, and the most dramatic increase in chill accumulation could reach up to 36.8% in northeast regions for RCP8.5. However, the forecasted chill will decrease by 6.4% in southeast stations under RCP8.5 by 2085s. Additionally, the increase rate of growing season heat showed spatially consistency, and the most pronounced increase was found in the RCP8.5 by 2085s. For the southwest station, median heat accumulation increased by 20.8% in the 2050s and 37.1% in the 2085s under RCP8.5. Similar increasing range could be found in the northeast station; the median growing season heat increased by 19.8% and 38.8% in the 2050s and 2085s under RCP8.5, respectively. Moreover, the date of last spring frost was expected to advance and the frequency of frost occurrences was projected to decline in the study area compared to the past. Overall, the present study improves understanding regarding site-specific characteristics of climatic suitability for deciduous fruit tree cultivation in main producing regions of northern China. The results could provide growers and decision-makers with theoretical evidence to take adaptive measure to ensure fruit production in future.

ABA and Not Chilling Reduces Heat Requirement to Force Cherry Blossom after Endodormancy Release

Models used to predict the onset of fruit tree blossom under changed climate conditions should be physiologically based as much as possible. Pure optimized phenology models carry the risk of unrealistic predictions due to a misinterpretation of metabolic processes. This was the motivation determining the relevant phases for chill and heat accumulation, which induces cherry blossom (cv. Summit). Investigations are based on 8 years of observational and analytical data, as well as on controlled experiments. For ‘Summit’ buds, to be released from endodormancy, 43 chill portions from 1 September are necessary. After endodormancy release (t₁), on average on 30 November, no further chilling is required, because no correlation between chill accumulation during ecodormancy and the subsequent heat accumulation until ‘Summit’ blossom exist. The declining amount of heat, which induces cherry blossom after t₁—shown in several forcing experiments—seems to be the result of the declining bud’s abscisic acid (ABA) content, up to ~50% until the beginning of ontogenetic development. Shortly after t₁, when the bud’s ABA content is high, a huge amount of heat is necessary to induce cherry blossom under controlled conditions. Heat requirement reduces during ecodormancy along with the reduction in the ABA content. According to these findings, plant development during ecodormancy is suppressed by low temperatures in the orchard and a slowly declining bud’s ABA content. These results should lead to a better consideration of the ecodormancy phase in phenology models.

High-resolution weather network reveals a high spatial variability in air temperature in the Central valley of California with implications for crop and pest management

Weather is the most important driver of crop development. However, spatial variability in weather makes it hard to obtain reliable high resolution datasets across large areas. Most growers rely on data from a single station that can be up to 50km away to make decisions about irrigation, pest management and penology-associated cultural practices at the block level. In this regard, we hypothesize that kriging a large network of weather stations can improve thermal time data quality compared to using the closest station. This study aims to explore the spatial variability in California's Central Valley and what is the relationship between the density of weather stations used and the error in the measurement of temperature related metrics and derived models. For this purpose, we used temperature records from January 1st 2020 to March 1st 2021 collected by the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) and a system of 731 weather stations placed above the canopy of trees in commercial orchards (in-orchard). We observed large discrepancies (>300 GDDTb0) in thermal time accumulation between using an interpolation of all stations available and just using the closest CIMIS station. Our data suggests these differences are not systematic bias but true differences in mesoclimate. Similar results were observed for chill accumulation in areas especially prone to not meeting pistachio chill requirements where the discrepancies between using the site-specific in-orchard weather station network and not using them were up to 10 CP. The use of this high resolution network of weather stations revealed spatial patterns in grape, almond, pistachio and pests phenology not reported before. Whereas previous studies have been focused on predictions at the county or state or regional level, our data suggests that a finer resolution can result in major improvements in the quality of data crucial for crop decision making.

Effects of chill unit accumulation and temperature on woody plant deacclimation kinetics

Woody perennials in temperate climates develop cold hardiness in the fall (acclimation) and lose cold hardiness in the spring (deacclimation) to survive freezing winter temperatures. Two main factors known to regulate deacclimation responses are dormancy status and temperature. However, the progression of deacclimation responses throughout the dormant period and across a range of temperatures is not well described. More detailed descriptions of dormancy status and temperature, as factors regulating deacclimation, are necessary to understand the timing and magnitude of freeze injury risks for woody perennials in temperate climates. In this study, we modeled deacclimation responses in cold-climate interspecific hybrid grapevine cultivars throughout the dormant period by integrating chill accumulation and temperature through the concept of deacclimation potential. We evaluated deacclimation and budbreak under multiple temperature treatments and chill unit accumulation levels using differential thermal analysis (DTA) and bud forcing assays. Deacclimation responses increased continuously following logistic trends for both increasing chill unit accumulation and increasing temperature. There are optimal temperatures where deacclimation rates increased but changes in deacclimation rates diminished below and above these temperatures. The cumulative chill unit range where deacclimation potential increased overlapped with the transition from endo- to ecodormancy. Therefore, deacclimation potential could provide a quantitative method for describing dormancy transitions that do not rely on the visual evaluation of budbreak. This information provides a more detailed understanding of when and how deacclimation contributes to increased risks by freezing injury. In addition, our descriptions could inform improvements to models predicting cold hardiness, dormancy transitions, and spring phenology.

Persian Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Bud Dormancy Dynamics in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

Temperate deciduous fruit trees survive winter temperatures by entering a dormant phase in their aerial meristematic organs. Release from bud dormancy occurs after chill requirements (CR) have been satisfied, whereas bud burst/flowering follows heat requirement (HR) fulfillment. The physiological basis behind these metrics remains elusive. In this study, we are presenting the first multidisciplinary dormancy progression analysis in northern Patagonia, linking (1) forcing/field phenology, (2) bud anatomical development, and (3) soluble sugar (sucrose, glucose, and fructose) dynamics in Juglans regia L. CR and HR were determined for 'Chandler' and 'Franquette,' two walnut cultivars with markedly different CR, in artificial chill/forced heat trials (three seasons) and in-field chill/forced heat tests (five seasons) using excised twigs either with or without apical buds (non-decapitated and decapitated). The soluble sugar dynamics of 'Chandler' (high-performance liquid chromatography) and the anatomical changes of the buds (light microscopy) of the two cultivars were analyzed during endo-ecodormancy progression in one and two seasons, respectively. The CR defined by artificial chill tests proved to be an overestimation compared to the field determinations. Moreover, HR was the main driver in the phenology dynamics, as expected for a high-chill region. 'Chandler' showed an average of 10.3 field chill portions (CP) and 2,163 Growing Degree Hours (GDH°C) less than 'Franquette' for dormancy release and bud burst, respectively. These results were consistent with the transition of the shoot apex from the vegetative to the reproductive phase and the soluble sugar profile. The decrease in sucrose between 15 and 30 days after CR fulfillment could be a reliable biological marker for endodormancy release in walnut, while the increase in fructose and glucose is likely an osmolyte and cellulosic carbon source in pre-sprouting. In addition, we discuss the effect of paradormancy thanks to our apical bud experiment (with or without). Our results improve the current understanding of endo-ecodormancy progression in walnut and provide insightful results for walnut production (i.e., cultivation practices such as pruning) as well as for further application in dormancy modeling, to infer the ideotypes that should be bred for future climate conditions.

Time-Resolved Analysis of Candidate Gene Expression and Ambient Temperature During Bud Dormancy in Apple

Winter dormancy - a period of low metabolic activity and no visible growth - appears as an adaptation to harsh winter conditions and can be divided into different phases. It is tightly controlled by environmental cues, with ambient temperature playing a major role. During endodormancy, a cultivar-specific amount of cold needs to be perceived, and during ecodormancy, heat hours accumulate before bud burst and anthesis in spring. Expression analysis, performed in several key fruit tree species, proved to be very useful in elucidating the molecular control of onset and release of dormancy. However, the time resolution of these experiments has been limited. Therefore, in this study, dense time-series expression analysis was conducted for 40 candidate genes involved in dormancy control, under the cool-temperate climate conditions in Dresden. Samples were taken from the cultivars 'Pinova' and 'Gala,' which differ in flowering time. The set of candidate genes included well-established dormancy genes such as DAM genes, MdFLC-like, MdICE1, MdPRE 1, and MdPIF4. Furthermore, we tested genes from dormancy-associated pathways including the brassinosteroid, gibberellic acid, abscisic acid (ABA), cytokinin response, and respiratory stress pathways. The expression patterns of well-established dormancy genes were confirmed and could be associated with specific dormancy phases. In addition, less well-known transcription factors and genes of the ABA signaling pathway showed associations with dormancy progression. The three ABA signaling genes HAB1_chr15, HAI3, and ABF2 showed a local minimum of gene expression in proximity of the endodormancy to ecodormancy transition. The number of sampling points allowed us to correlate expression values with temperature data, which revealed significant correlations of ambient temperature with the expression of the Malus domestica genes MdICE1, MdPIF4, MdFLC-like, HAB1chr15, and the type-B cytokinin response regulator BRR9. Interestingly, the slope of the linear correlation of temperature with the expression of MdPIF4 differed between cultivars. Whether the strength of inducibility of MdPIF4 expression by low temperature differs between the 'Pinova' and 'Gala' alleles needs to be tested further.

Winding up the bloom clock-do sugar levels at senescence determine how trees respond to winter temperature?

Variable winter temperatures cause a year-to-year discrepancy in the phenology of deciduous trees. This implies that an intrinsic 'winter clock' synchronizes bloom with the progression of winter to spring. The carbohydrate-temperature (C-T) model established a mechanistic association between carbohydrate metabolism in dormant trees and hourly winter temperatures. Using historical winter temperature and bloom times of Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb (almond), Malus domestica L. (apple), Pistachia vera L. (pistachio) and Juglans regia L. (walnut) in California and Washington states, we parametrized species-specific metabolic parameters to the C-T model. There was a sound fit between actual and projected bloom dates with a deviation (root mean square error) of 4-7 days in all species. The parameterized model enabled us to study how the observed variability in soluble carbohydrate concentrations at senescence (SC0) could affect bloom time. The C-T model projected that low SC0 could advance, while high SC0 possibly delays, the bloom of the early blooming almond trees. In contrast, high SC0 would advance the bloom of apple, pistachio and walnut trees. These novel projections suggest that after experimental validation, SC0 could guide post-harvest farming applications that affect fall carbohydrate accumulation to mediate the effects of climate shifts.

Male meiosis in sweet cherry is constrained by the chilling and forcing phases of dormancy

Male meiosis in temperate fruit trees occurs in the anthers once a year, synchronized with the seasons. The alternation of dormant and growth cycles determines the optimum moment for the male gametophyte formation, a process sensitive to both cold and warm temperatures. This ensures pollen viability and subsequent reproduction success that guarantee fruit production. In this work, we explore how male meiosis is framed by seasonality in sweet cherry. For this purpose, the dormant phases, male meiosis and blooming dates were established in four cultivars with different flowering dates and chilling requirements over 7 years. The chilling and heat requirements for each cultivar were empirically estimated, and chilling and heat temperatures were quantified according to the Dynamic and Growing Degree Hours (GDH) models, respectively. Endodormancy was overcome approximately a fortnight earlier during the colder winters than during the milder winters. Against our initial hypothesis, these differences were not clearly reflected in the time of male meiosis. The period between chilling fulfillment and meiosis lasted several weeks, during which a high amount of GDH accumulated. Results showed that male meiosis is conditioned by endodormancy but especially by warm temperatures, during the forcing period. This differs from what has been described in other related species and creates a framework for further studies to understand the strategies of synchronizing dormancy with seasons.

Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach

Fruit and nut trees production is an important activity across the southwest United States and this production is greatly impacted by the local climate. Temperature is the main environmental factor influencing the growth and the productivity of the fruit and nut trees as it affects the trees’ physiology and the vulnerability of flower bud, flowers, and young fruit and nut to the low temperatures or spring frost. The objective of the present study is to estimate the chilling and heat accumulation of fruit and nut trees across New Mexico. Three study sites as Fabian Garcia, Los Lunas, and Farmington were considered and climate variables were collected at hourly time step. The Utah model and the Dynamic model were used to estimate the accumulated chilling while the Forcing model was used for the heat accumulation. The possible fruit and nut trees endodormancy and ecodormancy periods were also determined at the study sites. The results obtained chilling hours of 715 ± 86.60 h at Fabian Garcia, 729.53 ± 41.71 h at Los Lunas, and 828.95 ± 83.73 h at Farmington using the Utah model. The accumulated chill portions during trees’ endodormancy was 3.12 ± 3.05 CP at Fabian Garcia, 42.23 ± 5.08 CP at Los Lunas, and 56.14 ± 1.84 CP at Farmington. The accumulated heat was 8735.52 ± 1650.91 GDH at Fabian Garcia, 7695.43 ± 212.90 GDH at Los Lunas, and 5984.69 ± 2353.20 GDH at Farmington. The fruit and nut trees are at no risk of bud flowers vulnerability at Fabian Garcia while they are under high risk of bud flowers and or young fruit and nut vulnerability to low temperatures early spring as hourly temperature can still drop below 0 °C in April at the end of ecodormancy and flower blooming and young fruits and nuts development stage at Los Lunas and Farmington. Severe weather, especially frost conditions during winter and early spring, can be a significant threat to sustainable nut and fruit production in the northern New Mexico while high chilling requirement fruit and nut trees might not meet chill requirements in the southern New Mexico.

Subseasonal prediction for bloom dates of tart cherries in Utah and Michigan, USA: merging phenological models with CFSv2 forecast

Temperate fruit trees require chilling for rest completion, followed by sufficient heat accumulation for onset of growth and bloom. The application of phenological models to predict bloom dates has been widely used in orchard management. Examples of such application include selecting adapted cultivars less prone to early bloom, predicting needs for frost protection, and preventing damage from late spring freezes. This study merged the Utah (chill) and ASYMCUR (forcing) phenological models by combining chill units and heat units (measured in growing degree hours) to predict bloom dates of tart cherries (Prunus cerasus L.) in Utah and Michigan, the top producing states of the USA. It was found that the modified Utah model improves the estimation of chill units compared with the original one, while the original Utah model may still be suitable for use in the colder winter of Michigan (with its later bloom dates than Utah). The combined models were applied with the temperature predicted by the Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) model. The prediction was applied twice a month, starting from 1 February to 1 May. The Utah-ASYMCUR model using the forecasted temperature from CFSv2 exhibits subseasonal performance in predicting the bloom dates for 6 weeks in advance. The prediction can offer growers a way to mitigate extreme climate anomalies.

Effects of winter chilling vs. spring forcing on the spring phenology of trees in a cold region and a warmer reference region

Regions at high latitudes and high altitudes are undergoing a more pronounced winter warming than spring warming, and such asymmetric warming will affect chilling and forcing processes and thus the spring phenology of plants. We analyzed winter chilling and spring forcing accumulation in relation to the spring phenology of three tree species (Ulmus pumila, Populus simonii, and Syringa oblata) growing in a cold region (CR) compared with trees in a warmer reference region (WR), using the Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour (GDH) model. We tested that forcing rather than chilling affects the spring phenology of trees in CR (hypothesis I), and that trees in CR have both lower mean chilling and forcing temperature and thus longer accumulation periods than trees in WR (hypothesis II). The modeling results confirmed that chilling and forcing occur simultaneously during the early spring when temperature gradually increases. In line with our hypotheses, forcing played a crucial role in spring phenology in CR, but chilling and forcing combined to determine spring phenology in WR. The temperature during the chilling and forcing periods was lower and the accumulation period started earlier and ended later in CR than in WR. Moreover, the chilling accumulation was broken into two periods by the low deep winter temperature in CR, and that interruption will be removed by future strong winter warming. Future asymmetric warming, with a stronger temperature increase in winter than in spring, could decrease the forcing accumulation effects and increase the chilling effects on the spring phenology of plants in CR. This change in the balance between chilling and forcing will lead to a shift in plant phenology, which will further have major impacts on biogeochemical cycles and on ecosystem functions and services.

Chilling and Heat Requirements of Temperate Stone Fruit Trees (Prunus sp.)

Stone fruit trees of genus Prunus, like other temperate woody species, need to accumulate a cultivar-specific amount of chilling during endodormancy, and of heat during ecodormancy to flower properly in spring. Knowing the requirements of a cultivar can be critical in determining if it can be adapted to a particular area. Growers can use this information to anticipate the future performance of their orchards and the adaptation of new cultivars to their region. In this work, the available information on chilling- and heat-requirements of almond, apricot, plum, peach, and sweet cherry cultivars is reviewed. We pay special attention to the method used for the determination of breaking dormancy, the method used to quantify chilling and heat temperatures, and the place where experiments were conducted. The results reveal different gaps in the information available, both in the lack of information of cultivars with unknown requirements and in the methodologies used. The main emerging challenges are the standardization of the conditions of each methodology and the search for biological markers for dormancy. These will help to deal with the growing number of new cultivars and the reduction of winter cold in many areas due to global warming.

Mild Water Stress Makes Apple Buds More Likely to Flower and More Responsive to Artificial Forcing— Impacts of an Unusually Warm and Dry Summer in Germany

Climate change may result in increasingly frequent extreme events, such as the unusually dry conditions that occurred in Germany during the apple growing season of 2018. To assess the effects of this phenomenon on dormancy release and flowering in apples, we compared irrigated and non-irrigated orchard blocks at Campus Klein-Altendorf. We evaluated bud development, dormancy release and flowering in the following season under orchard and controlled forcing conditions. Results showed that irrigated trees presented longer (39.2%) and thinner shoots compared to non-irrigated trees. In both treatments, apical buds developed a similar number of flower primordia per cyme (4–5), presenting comparable development and starch dynamics during dormancy. Interestingly, buds on non-irrigated shoots exposed to low chill levels responded earlier to forcing conditions than those on irrigated shoots. However, chill requirements (~50 Chill Portions) and bud phenology under field conditions did not differ between treatments. In spring, buds on non-irrigated trees presented a higher bloom probability (0.42) than buds on irrigated trees (0.30). Our findings show that mild water stress during summer influenced vegetative growth during the same season, as well as the response of buds to forcing temperatures and flowering of the following season. The differences between irrigation levels in the phenological responses of shoots under low-chill conditions point to a so-far understudied impact of water supply on chilling requirements, as well as subsequent bud behavior. Accounting for the effects of both the water status during summer and the temperature during the dormant season may be required for accurately predicting future tree phenology in a changing climate.

A Conceptual Framework for Winter Dormancy in Deciduous Trees

The perennial life strategy of temperate trees relies on establishing a dormant stage during winter to survive unfavorable conditions. To overcome this dormant stage, trees require cool (i.e., chilling) temperatures as an environmental cue. Numerous approaches have tried to decipher the physiology of dormancy, but these efforts have usually remained relatively narrowly focused on particular regulatory or metabolic processes, recently integrated and linked by transcriptomic studies. This work aimed to synthesize existing knowledge on dormancy into a general conceptual framework to enhance dormancy comprehension. The proposed conceptual framework covers four physiological processes involved in dormancy progression: (i) transport at both whole-plant and cellular level, (ii) phytohormone dynamics, (iii) genetic and epigenetic regulation, and (iv) dynamics of nonstructural carbohydrates. We merged the regulatory levels into a seasonal framework integrating the environmental signals (i.e., temperature and photoperiod) that trigger each dormancy phase.

Interpolating hourly temperatures for computing agroclimatic metrics

Calculating many agroclimatic metrics, e.g., chill or heat accumulation in orchards, requires continuous records of hourly temperature. Such records are often unavailable, with farm managers and researchers relying on daily data or hourly records with gaps. While procedures for generating idealized temperature curves exist, interpolating hourly records has long been a challenge. The SolveHours procedure combines measured hourly temperatures, idealized daily temperature curves and proxy data to fill gaps in such records. It first determines daily temperature extremes by solving systems of linear equations that express the typical relationships between hourly temperatures and daily temperature extremes for every hour. After filling gaps in this record with bias-corrected data from proxy stations or by linear interpolation, SolveHours uses these data to generate an idealized temperature curve. Deviations of recorded hourly temperatures from this curve are calculated, linearly interpolated, and added to the idealized curve to obtain a gapless record. The procedure was compared to alternative gap-filling algorithms using an 8-month dataset from an orchard near Winters, CA, in which half the records were replaced by 500 gaps of random length. The SolveHours procedure achieved ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) values of 6.7 (when using temperature extremes from a proxy station) and 8.2 (with temperature extremes measured on site), with root mean square errors of 1.6 and 1.3 °C, respectively. It outperformed all other algorithms in reproducing recorded accumulation of Chill Portions and Growing Degree Hours. The SolveHours procedure is implemented in the chillR package for the R programming environment ( https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/chillR/vignettes/hourly_temperatures.html ).

Differentiated dynamics of bud dormancy and growth in temperate fruit trees relating to bud phenology adaptation, the case of apple and almond trees

Few studies have focused on the characterization of bud dormancy and growth dynamics for temperate fruit species in temperate and mild cropping areas, although this is an appropriate framework to anticipate phenology adaptation facing future warming contexts which would potentially combine chill declines and heat increases. To examine this issue, two experimental approaches and field observations were used for high- and low-chill apple cultivars in temperate climate of southern France and in mild climates of northern Morocco and southern Brazil. Low-chill almond cultivars offered an additional relevant plant material for comparison with apple in northern Morocco. Divergent patterns of dormancy and growth dynamics were clearly found in apple tree between southern France and southern Brazil. Divergences were less pronounced between France and Morocco. A global view outlined main differences in the dormancy chronology and intensity, the transition between endordormancy and ecodormancy and the duration of ecodormancy. A key role of bud rehydration in the transition period was shown. High-chill cultivars would be submitted in mild conditions to heterogeneous rehydration capacities linked to insufficient chill fulfillment and excessive forcing linked to high temperatures. This would favor bud competitions and consequently excessive flowering durations and weak flowering. Low chilling requirements in apple and almond would conversely confer biological capacities to tolerate superficial dormancy and abrupt transition from endordormancy to ecodormancy without important heterogeneous rehydration states within buds. It may also assume that low-chill cultivars can also tolerate high temperatures during ecodormancy as well as extended flowering durations.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

Chilling requirement of Ribes cultivars

It is usually thought that adequate winter chill is required for the full flowering of many temperate woody species. This paper investigates the sensitivity of blackcurrant bud burst and flowering to natural weather fluctuations in a temperate maritime climate, and compares a range of chill models that have been proposed for assessing the accumulation of winter chill. Bud break for four contrasting cultivars are compared in an exceptionally cold and in a mild winter in Eastern Scotland. The results confirm the importance of chilling at temperatures lower than 0°C and demonstrate that no single chilling function applies equally to all blackcurrant cultivars. There is a pressing need for further model development to take into account the relationship between chilling temperatures and warming temperatures occurring both during and after the chill accumulation period.

Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

Identification of chilling and heat requirements of cherry trees--a statistical approach

Most trees from temperate climates require the accumulation of winter chill and subsequent heat during their dormant phase to resume growth and initiate flowering in the following spring. Global warming could reduce chill and hence hamper the cultivation of high-chill species such as cherries. Yet determining chilling and heat requirements requires large-scale controlled-forcing experiments, and estimates are thus often unavailable. Where long-term phenology datasets exist, partial least squares (PLS) regression can be used as an alternative, to determine climatic requirements statistically. Bloom dates of cherry cv. 'Schneiders späte Knorpelkirsche' trees in Klein-Altendorf, Germany, from 24 growing seasons were correlated with 11-day running means of daily mean temperature. Based on the output of the PLS regression, five candidate chilling periods ranging in length from 17 to 102 days, and one forcing phase of 66 days were delineated. Among three common chill models used to quantify chill, the Dynamic Model showed the lowest variation in chill, indicating that it may be more accurate than the Utah and Chilling Hours Models. Based on the longest candidate chilling phase with the earliest starting date, cv. 'Schneiders späte Knorpelkirsche' cherries at Bonn exhibited a chilling requirement of 68.6 ± 5.7 chill portions (or 1,375 ± 178 chilling hours or 1,410 ± 238 Utah chill units) and a heat requirement of 3,473 ± 1,236 growing degree hours. Closer investigation of the distinct chilling phases detected by PLS regression could contribute to our understanding of dormancy processes and thus help fruit and nut growers identify suitable tree cultivars for a future in which static climatic conditions can no longer be assumed. All procedures used in this study were bundled in an R package ('chillR') and are provided as Supplementary materials. The procedure was also applied to leaf emergence dates of walnut (cv. 'Payne') at Davis, California.

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring phenology

Temporal and temperature driven analyses were conducted for eight spring phenology datasets from three Australian pome fruit growing regions ranging from 24 to 43 years in length. This, the first such analysis for Australia, indicated significant temporal change in phenophase timing for only one of the datasets. To determine relationships to temperature, a sequential chill and growth method as well as mean springtime temperatures were used to estimate phenophase timing. Expected advancement of phenophase ranged from 4.1 to 7.7 days per degree Celsius increase in temperature. The sequential chill and growth approach proved superior, with coefficients of determination between 0.49 and 0.85, indicating the inclusion of chill conditions are important for spring phenology modelling. Compared to similar phenological research in the Northern Hemisphere, the changes in response variables were often shallower in Australia, although significance of observed hemispheric differences were not found.

A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees

Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between -155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between -10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change.

Emergence phenology of Osmia lignaria subsp. lignaria (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), its parasitoid Chrysura kyrae (Hymenoptera: Chrysididae), and bloom of Cercis canadensis

Emergence patterns of a natural population of Osmia lignaria subsp. lignaria Say were monitored during a 5-yr period (2003-2007) in relation to air temperature, bloom of eastern redbud (Cercis canadensis L.), and emergence of the parasitoid Chysura kyrae Krombein. Bee cocoons were placed in gelatin capsules and overwintered within shelters in their natural habitat. Mean emergence of female O. l. lignaria was observed at approximately 2 d after redbud bloom began; mean male emergence was approximately 1 wk earlier than for females and was nearly identical to that of C. kyrae. Horticultural models used to predict budburst for several tree species were evaluated with respect to redbud bloom and O. l. lignaria emergence. Each model indicated that both sexes of the bee and redbud had similar chill unit requirements. Differences in emergence and bloom dates were attributed to the different requirements for growing degree hours (GDHs) after chilling requirements were met. The close phenological relationship observed between eastern redbud and bee emergence suggests an important role for this common understory tree in the early nesting success of O. l. lignaria.

Mapping quantitative trait loci associated with chilling requirement, heat requirement and bloom date in peach (Prunus persica)

*Chilling requirement, together with heat requirement, determines the bloom date, which has an impact on the climatic distribution of the genotypes of tree species. The molecular basis of floral bud chilling requirement is poorly understood, despite its importance to the adaptation and production of fruit trees. In addition, the genetic nature of heat requirement and the genetic interrelationships among chilling requirement, heat requirement and bloom date remain unclear. *A peach (Prunus persica) F(2) population of 378 genotypes developed from two genotypes with contrasting chilling requirements was used for linkage map construction and quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping. The floral bud chilling and heat requirements of each genotype were evaluated over 2 yr and the bloom date was scored over 4 yr. *Twenty QTLs with additive effects were identified for three traits, including one major QTL for chilling requirement and two major QTLs for bloom date. The majority of QTLs colocalized with QTLs for other trait(s). In particular, one genomic region of 2 cM, pleiotropic for the three traits, overlapped with the sequenced peach EVG region. *This first report on the QTL mapping of floral bud chilling requirement will facilitate marker-assisted breeding for low chilling requirement cultivars and the map-based cloning of genes controlling chilling requirement. The extensive colocalization of QTLs suggests that there may be one unified temperature sensing and action system regulating chilling requirement, heat requirement and bloom date together.