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Baraj B, Mishra M, Sudarsan D, Silva RMD, Santos CAG. Climate change and resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India: A bibliometric review. Heliyon 2024; 10:e29586. [PMID: 38681622 PMCID: PMC11046230 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2024] [Revised: 03/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/10/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change (CC) is a global issue, with effects felt across nations, including India. The influences of CC, such as rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather events, have a direct impact on agricultural productivity, thereby affecting food security, income, livelihoods, and overall population health. This study aims to identify trends, patterns, and common themes in research on Climate Change and Resilience, Adaptation, and Sustainability of Agriculture in India (CCRASAI). It also seeks to illuminate potential future research directions to guide subsequent research and policy initiatives. The adverse impacts of CC could push farmers into poverty and undernourishment, underscoring the imperative to focus on the resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India. A bibliometric review was conducted using Biblioshiny and VoSviewer software to analyze 572 articles focused on CCRASAI from the Scopus and Web of Science databases, published between 1994 and 2022. There was an evident upward trend in CCRASAI publications during this period, with steady growth appearing after 2007. Among the States and Union Territories, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have the highest number of published research articles. Research on CCRASAI is most concentrated in the southern plateau, the trans-Gangetic and middle Gangetic plains, and the Himalayan regions. The frequently used terms-'climate change impacts,' 'adaptation strategies,' and 'sustainable agriculture'-in CCRASAI research emphasize the focus on analyzing the effects of CC, creating adaptation strategies, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Biswaranjan Baraj
- Department of Geography, Fakir Mohan University, Vyasa Vihar, Nuapadhi, Balasore, 756089, Odisha, India
| | - Manoranjan Mishra
- Department of Geography, Fakir Mohan University, Vyasa Vihar, Nuapadhi, Balasore, 756089, Odisha, India
| | - Desul Sudarsan
- Department of Library and Information Science, Berhampur University, Berhampur, Odisha, 760007, India
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Muleia R, Maúre G, José A, Maholela P, Adjei IA, Karim MR, Trigo S, Kutane W, Inlamea O, Kazembe LN, Marrufo T. Assessing the Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs of Mozambique's Health Sector to Climate: A Comprehensive Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 21:532. [PMID: 38791752 PMCID: PMC11120973 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph21050532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Climate change poses severe consequences, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates may escalate by 2050 without significant climate and development action. The health impacts are diverse, encompassing communicable and non-communicable diseases. Mozambique, a climate-vulnerable nation, has experienced significant natural disasters in the past 42 years, impacting its health system. This study aims to assess Mozambique's health sector's vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change. Following a methodology proposed by the World Health Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a six-step vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted to conduct the Health Vulnerability Index (HVI) for Mozambique's regions (n=161). The HVI integrates historical climate, epidemiological, and socio-economic data at the district level, and was computed using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity dimensions. The results revealed spatial patterns in exposure to climate variables, extreme weather events, and variations in sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the country. The HVI mirrored the exposure findings. Notably, high vulnerability was observed in several districts, while major urban centers displayed lower vulnerability. These findings highlight the country's vulnerability to climate change and underscore the potential for adverse impacts on livelihoods, the economy, and human health. The study provides a foundation for developing strategies and adaptation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachid Muleia
- Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo 0101-11, Mozambique
| | - Genito Maúre
- Department of Physics, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo 0101-11, Mozambique;
| | - Américo José
- Department of Health Observation, National Institute of Health, Maputo 0205-02, Mozambique; (A.J.); (P.M.); (O.I.); (T.M.)
| | - Plácida Maholela
- Department of Health Observation, National Institute of Health, Maputo 0205-02, Mozambique; (A.J.); (P.M.); (O.I.); (T.M.)
| | - Isaac Akpor Adjei
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi AK-869, Ghana;
| | - Md. Rezaul Karim
- Department of Statistics, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka 1342, Bangladesh;
| | - Sónia Trigo
- World Health Organization Country Office, Maputo 280, Mozambique; (S.T.); (W.K.)
| | - Waltaji Kutane
- World Health Organization Country Office, Maputo 280, Mozambique; (S.T.); (W.K.)
| | - Osvaldo Inlamea
- Department of Health Observation, National Institute of Health, Maputo 0205-02, Mozambique; (A.J.); (P.M.); (O.I.); (T.M.)
| | - Lawrence N. Kazembe
- Department of Computing, Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Namibia, Private Bag, Windhoek 13301, Namibia;
| | - Tatiana Marrufo
- Department of Health Observation, National Institute of Health, Maputo 0205-02, Mozambique; (A.J.); (P.M.); (O.I.); (T.M.)
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Mallik P, Ghosh T. Sub-regional variation in atmospheric and land variables regulates tea yield in the Dooars region of West Bengal, India. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:1591-1605. [PMID: 37479848 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02521-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Revised: 05/31/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023]
Abstract
Climatic variables can have localized variations within a region and these localized climate patterns can have significant effect on production of climate-sensitive crops such as tea. Even though tea cultivation and industries significantly contribute to employment generation and foreign earnings of several South Asian nations including India, sub-regional differences in the effects of climatic and soil variables on tea yield have remained unexplored since past studies focused on a tea-producing region as a whole and did not account for local agro-climatic conditions. Here, using a garden-level panel dataset based on tea gardens of Dooars region, a prominent tea-producing region in India, we explored how sub-regional variations in climatic and land variables might differently affect tea yield within a tea-producing region. Our analysis showed that the Dooars region harboured significant spatial variability for different climatic (temperature, precipitation, surface solar radiation) and soil temperature variables. Using graph-based Louvain clustering of tea gardens, we identified four spatial sub-regions which varied in terms of topography, annual and seasonal distribution of climatic and land variables and tea yield. Our sub-region-specific panel regression analyses revealed differential effects of climatic and land variables on tea yield of different sub-regions. Finally, for different emission scenario, we also projected future (2025-2100) tea yield in each sub-region based on predictions of climatic variables from three GCMs (MIROC5, CCSM4 and CESM1(CAM5)). A large variation in future seasonal production changes was projected across sub-regions (-23.4-35.7% changes in premonsoon, -4.2-3.1% changes in monsoon and -10.9-10.7% changes in postmonsoon tea production, respectively).
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Affiliation(s)
- Piyashee Mallik
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032, India.
| | - Tuhin Ghosh
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032, India
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Fang W, Huang Q, Huang G, Ming B, Quan Q, Li P, Guo Y, Zheng X, Feng G, Peng J. Assessment of dynamic drought-induced ecosystem risk: Integrating time-varying hazard frequency, exposure and vulnerability. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 342:118176. [PMID: 37207461 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying 28.26% of Earth's surface, are extensively at risk from droughts, which is likely to propagate into human communities owing to loss of vital services. Ecosystem risk also tends to fluctuate within anthropogenically-forced nonstationary environments, raising considerable concerns about effectiveness of mitigation strategies. This study aims to assess dynamic ecosystem risk induced by droughts and identify risk hotspots. Bivariate nonstationary drought frequency was initially derived as a hazard component of risk. By coupling vegetation coverage and biomass quantity, a two-dimensional exposure indicator was developed. Trivariate likelihood of vegetation decline was calculated under arbitrary droughts to intuitively determine ecosystem vulnerability. Ultimately, time-variant drought frequency, exposure and vulnerability were multiplied to derive dynamic ecosystem risk, followed by hotspot and attribution analyses. Risk assessment implemented in the drought-prevalent Pearl River basin (PRB) of China during 1982-2017 showed that meteorological droughts in eastern and western margins, although less frequent, were prolonged and aggravated in contrast to prevalence of less persistent and severe droughts in the middle. In 86.12% of the PRB, ecosystem exposure maintains high levels (0.62). Relatively high vulnerability (>0.5) occurs in water-demanding agroecosystems, exhibiting a northwest-southeast-directed extension. A 0.1-degree risk atlas unveils that high and medium risks occupy 18.96% and 37.99% of the PRB, while risks are magnified in the north. The most pressing hotspots with high risk continuing to escalate reside in the East River and Hongliu River basins. Our results provide knowledge of composition, spatio-temporal variability and driving mechanism of drought-induced ecosystem risk, which will assist in risk-based mitigation prioritization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China.
| | - Qiang Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China
| | - Gordon Huang
- Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - Bo Ming
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China.
| | - Quan Quan
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China.
| | - Pei Li
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China
| | - Yi Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China
| | - Xudong Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China
| | - Gang Feng
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China
| | - Jian Peng
- Department of Remote Sensing, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany; Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
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Das U, Ansari MA, Ghosh S. Does climate knowledge act as a shield for farm livelihoods? Empirical analysis from the coastal and non-coastal ecosystems of India. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 2022; 150:1627-1642. [PMID: 36321131 PMCID: PMC9610357 DOI: 10.1007/s00704-022-04245-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 09/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Developing countries with agrarian economy have been facing challenges arising from climate change events and its consequences. Climate knowledge influences the adaptation and mitigation measures shielding farm households in climatically vulnerable regions. Indian states with climatically vulnerable coastal and non-coastal agro-ecosystems have dominantly an agrarian economy; and small and marginal farmers' livelihoods are under focus through implementation of National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research. The present study was undertaken in one such state, Odisha. Climate knowledge test was developed following appropriate methods and administered to 200 farmers, 100 each in coastal and non-coastal NICRA districts to assess the knowledge level of dominant livelihood groups. Farmers' climate knowledge was higher in coastal district as compared to non-coastal district with overall climate knowledge index values of 53.10 and 43.95, respectively. Farmers who engaged in crop + livestock farming have better climate knowledge as compared to crop farmers and livestock farmers. Multiple regression and path analyses revealed social, economic, communication and psychological attributes of the farmers determining their climate knowledge level. Education level, social participation, participation in community initiatives, annual family income and personal cosmopolite information sources use are few such important determinants of climate knowledge. These dimensions require attention for the policy advocacies to improve climate knowledge so as to shield climatically vulnerable farm households.
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Affiliation(s)
- Usha Das
- Department of Agricultural Extension and Communication, College of Agriculture, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand India
| | - M. A. Ansari
- Department of Agricultural Extension and Communication, College of Agriculture, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand India
| | - Souvik Ghosh
- Institute of Agriculture, Visva-Bharati University, Shantiniketan, West Bengal India
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Haughan AE, Pettorelli N, Potts SG, Senapathi D. Determining the role of climate change in India's past forest loss. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:3883-3901. [PMID: 35274416 PMCID: PMC9314953 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2021] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Tropical forests in India have declined at an alarming rate over the past century, with extensive literature focusing on the high contributions of agricultural expansions to deforestation, while the effects of climate change have largely been overlooked. Climate change effects, such as increasing temperatures, drought and flooding, have already occurred, and are projected to worsen. Climate velocity, a metric that accounts for spatial heterogeneity in climate, can help identify contiguous areas under greater climate stress and potential climate refuges in addition to traditional temporal trends. Here, we examined the relative contribution of climate changes to forest loss in India during the period 2001-2018, at two spatial (regional and national) and two temporal (seasonal and annual) scales. This includes, for the first time, a characterization of climate velocity in the country. Our findings show that annual forest loss increased substantially over the 17-year period examined (2001-2018), with the majority of forest loss occurring in the Northeast region. Decreases in temporal trends of temperature and precipitation were most associated with forest losses, but there was large spatial and seasonal variation in the relationship. In every region except the Northeast, forest losses were correlated with faster velocities of at least one climate variable but overlapping areas of high velocities were rare. Our findings indicate that climate changes have played an important role in India's past forest loss, but likely remain secondary to other factors at present. We stress concern for climates velocities recorded in the country, reaching 97 km year-1 , and highlight that understanding the different regional and seasonal relationships between climatic conditions and forest distributions will be key to effective protection of the country's remaining forests as climate change accelerates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice E. Haughan
- School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentCentre for Agri‐Environmental ResearchUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
- Institute of ZoologyZoological Society of LondonLondonUK
| | | | - Simon G. Potts
- School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentCentre for Agri‐Environmental ResearchUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Deepa Senapathi
- School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentCentre for Agri‐Environmental ResearchUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
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Choudhary BB, Sirohi S. Understanding vulnerability of agricultural production system to climatic stressors in North Indian Plains: a meso-analysis. ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 2022; 24:13522-13541. [PMID: 35018137 PMCID: PMC8736329 DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01997-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED The present study has mapped the hot spots vulnerable to changing climate and identified the underlying driving indicators in subtropical Trans and Upper Gangetic plains (TUGP) of India. The long-term trends indicate that the area between latitude 25 and 28° N has been more exposed to adverse climatic changes especially rise in maximum summer/monsoon and minimum winter temperatures. The more predominant correlates of vulnerability in the region come not from the exposure to adverse meteorological conditions but from prevailing socio-economic conditions (adaptive capacity) and the increased environmental pressure (sensitivity). Among the top 40 most vulnerable districts in the TUGP, in about two-third, the exposure was at moderate to low level, but sensitivity was high and adaptive capacity very weak. Among the sensitivity indicators, the factor loadings, obtained through modified principal component technique, were high for average size of landholdings, Temperature Humidity Index load and productivity of paddy and wheat crops. Irrigation intensity, farm mechanization, cropping intensity, livestock density, proportion of milch animals stock, rural literacy rate and veterinary institutions were the critical factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a district. The study outlines range of research and policy imperatives for enhancing resilience of crop-livestock production system. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-021-01997-7.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Smita Sirohi
- DESM Division, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal , 132001 India
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Mahapatra B, Walia M, Rao CAR, Raju BMK, Saggurti N. Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change increases the risk of child malnutrition: Evidence from a large-scale observational study in India. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0253637. [PMID: 34181668 PMCID: PMC8238181 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The impact of climate change on agriculture and food security has been examined quite thoroughly by researchers globally as well as in India. While existing studies provide evidence on how climate variability affects the food security and nutrition, research examining the extent of effect vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can have on nutrition in India are scarce. This study examined a) the association between the degree of vulnerability in agriculture to climate change and child nutrition at the micro-level b) spatial effect of climate vulnerability on child nutrition, and c) the geographical hotspots of both vulnerability in agriculture to climate change and child malnutrition. METHODS The study used an index on vulnerability of agriculture to climate change and linked it to child malnutrition indicators (stunting, wasting, underweight and anaemia) from the National Family Health Survey 4 (2015-16). Mixed-effect and spatial autoregressive models were fitted to assess the direction and strength of the relationship between vulnerability and child malnutrition at macro and micro level. Spatial analyses examined the within-district and across-district spill-over effects of climate change vulnerability on child malnutrition. RESULTS Both mixed-effect and spatial autoregressive models found that the degree of vulnerability was positively associated with malnutrition among children. Children residing in districts with a very high degree of vulnerability were more like to have malnutrition than those residing in districts with very low vulnerability. The analyses found that the odds of a child suffering from stunting increased by 32%, wasting by 42%, underweight by 45%, and anaemia by 63% if the child belonged to a district categorised as very highly vulnerable when compared to those categorised as very low. The spatial analysis also suggested a high level of clustering in the spatial distribution of vulnerability and malnutrition. Hotspots of child malnutrition and degree of vulnerability were mostly found to be clustered around western-central part of India. CONCLUSION Study highlights the consequences that vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can have on child nutrition. Strategies should be developed to mitigate the effect of climate change on areas where there is a clustering of vulnerability and child malnutrition.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Monika Walia
- International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi & Ex-Population Council, New Delhi, India
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Roy B, Schaffartzik A. Talk renewables, walk coal: The paradox of India's energy transition. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 2021; 180:106871. [PMID: 33071457 PMCID: PMC7547319 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2020] [Revised: 09/25/2020] [Accepted: 10/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Coal is on the rise in India: despite the devasting impacts of the climate crisis, the awareness for land and forest rights, and political talk of a coal phase-out. In this article, we demonstrate that despite the renewables-led rhetoric, India is in the midst of a transition to (not away from) greater use of coal in its fossil energy system and in the electricity system in particular. We investigate this paradox by combining socio-metabolic and political-ecological analysis of the Indian coal complex. Our framework integrates material and energy flow data as characterizing the Indian fossil energy transition, indicators on the development and structure of the coal industry, and studies of ecological distribution conflicts around coal. The dominant claim to expansive use of coal and the competing counterclaims are indicative of underlying power relations which can also be witnessed in other countries. In India, they extend into the conflicted development of renewable energy including hydropower, in which the land dispossession, exclusion, and injustices associated with the expansion of the coal complex are reproduced. We conclude that the current energy transition - in which coal continues to play a dominant role - is neither sustainable nor just.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brototi Roy
- ICTA-UAB, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Anke Schaffartzik
- ICTA-UAB, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain
- Institute of Social Ecology (SEC), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Austria
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Stennett-Brown RK, Stephenson TS, Taylor MA. Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0219250. [PMID: 31291297 PMCID: PMC6619692 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2018] [Accepted: 06/19/2019] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Michael A. Taylor
- Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica, West Indies
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Nanda M, Cordell D, Kansal A. Assessing national vulnerability to phosphorus scarcity to build food system resilience: The case of India. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2019; 240:511-517. [PMID: 30978506 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2018] [Revised: 12/03/2018] [Accepted: 03/25/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The scarcity of phosphorus worldwide led researchers to develop indicators of national vulnerability to phosphorus scarcity, however this has not been applied at a national level so far. A systematic approach is described here to identify country-specific indicators of such vulnerability, in this case for India, based on literature and stakeholder engagement. The indicators are then aggregated to compute a phosphorus vulnerability index (PVI) to help policymakers formulate strategies towards building national resilience towards scarcity of phosphorus. For India, the key indicators include import dependence, soil fertility, purchasing power of farmers, and their access to credit. A PVI of 37.29 puts India in the 'highly vulnerable' category. Existing schemes targeted for agricultural sector in India are assessed for their ability to manage phosphorus vulnerability and for building resilience. Other developing countries with similar challenges can easily replicate the approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Madhuri Nanda
- Coca-Cola Department of Regional Water Studies, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110 070, India
| | - Dana Cordell
- Institute of Sustainability Futures, Level 11, UTS Building 10, 235 Jones Street, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
| | - Arun Kansal
- Coca-Cola Department of Regional Water Studies; TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110 070, India.
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Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 14:ijerph14040357. [PMID: 28358338 PMCID: PMC5409558 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph14040357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2017] [Revised: 03/13/2017] [Accepted: 03/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.
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