A new model to predict intravenous immunoglobin-resistant Kawasaki disease

Coronary thrombosis and myocardial ischemia in Kawasaki disease: a case report

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery thrombosis and myocardial ischemia caused by giant coronary aneurysms are the main causes of death in children with Kawasaki disease. The use of thrombolytic therapy in children with Kawasaki disease who have coronary thrombosis is a controversial topic, especially with respect to the timing of treatment.

CASE PRESENTATION

In this article, we report a case of a child aged two years and nine months with Kawasaki disease whose coronary arteries had no involvement in the acute phase. However, by only one week after discharge, the patient returned because we found giant coronary aneurysms complicated by thrombosis via echocardiography. Despite aggressive thrombolytic therapy, the child developed myocardial ischemia during thrombolytic therapy. Fortunately, because of timely treatment, the child's thrombus has dissolved, and the myocardial ischemia has resolved.

CONCLUSIONS

This case suggests that for patients at high risk of coronary artery aneurysms, echocardiography may need to be reviewed earlier. Low-molecular-weight heparin should be added to antagonize the early procoagulant effects of warfarin when warfarin therapy is initiated. In the case of first-detected coronary thrombosis, aggressive thrombolytic therapy may be justified, particularly during the acute and subacute phases of the disease course.

Risk-prediction models for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: Risk-of-Bias Assessment using PROBAST

BACKGROUND

The prediction model of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki disease can calculate the probability of IVIG resistance and provide a basis for clinical decision-making. We aim to assess the quality of these models developed in the children with Kawasaki disease.

METHODS

Studies of prediction models for IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease were identified through searches in the PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase databases. Two investigators independently performed literature screening, data extraction, quality evaluation, and discrepancies were settled by a statistician. The checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS) was used for data extraction, and the prediction models were evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Seventeen studies meeting the selection criteria were included in the qualitative analysis. The top three predictors were neutrophil measurements (peripheral neutrophil count and neutrophil %), serum albumin level, and C-reactive protein (CRP) level. The reported area under the curve (AUC) values for the developed models ranged from 0.672 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.631-0.712) to 0.891 (95% CI: 0.837-0.945); The studies showed a high risk of bias (ROB) for modeling techniques, yielding a high overall ROB.

CONCLUSION

IVIG resistance models for Kawasaki disease showed high ROB. An emphasis on improving their quality can provide high-quality evidence for clinical practice.

IMPACT STATEMENT

This study systematically evaluated the risk of bias (ROB) of existing prediction models for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki disease to provide guidance for future model development meeting clinical expectations. This is the first study to systematically evaluate the ROB of IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease by using PROBAST. ROB may reduce model performance in different populations. Future prediction models should account for this problem, and PROBAST can help improve the methodological quality and applicability of prediction model development.

The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease is a vasculitis that can lead to cardiac complications, including coronary artery disease and cardiogenic shock. Various scoring systems have been developed to determine those that will be refractory to routine intravenous immunoglobulin therapy or develop coronary artery disease. The objective of this study was to determine if the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio could predict refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify manuscripts describing comparisons of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio between those who had refractory disease and those who did not, and between those who developed coronary artery lesions and those who did not. Mean difference was compared between groups. Areas under the curve were utilised to determine the pooled area under the curve.

RESULTS

12 studies with 5593 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 2.55 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve of 0.724. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio after therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 1.42 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve for of 0.803. Five studies with 1690 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of coronary artery lesions. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in coronary artery lesions with a mean difference of 0.65 (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio may help physicians in the identification of patients at risk of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

Nomogram to predict risk of resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin in children hospitalized with Kawasaki disease in Eastern China

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict risk of resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in children with Kawasaki disease in eastern China.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed the data of children with Kawasaki disease who received IVIG during hospitalisation at Soochow University Affiliated Children's Hospital. IVIG resistance was defined as recrudescent or persistent fever ≥36 h after the end of the IVIG infusion. Baseline variables were analysed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify the predictors of IVIG resistance, which were then used to construct a predictive nomogram. Calibration curve and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The predictive nomogram was validated on test sets of external data and prospective data.

RESULTS

Between January 2015 and December 2020, 1293 Kawasaki disease patients were hospitalized in Soochow University Affiliated Children's Hospital. Among them, 72 (5.57%) showed IVIG resistance. LASSO identified haemoglobin, percentage of neutrophils, C-reactive protein level, platelet count, serum albumin, serum sodium, serum alkaline phosphatase, coronary artery damage, and complete Kawasaki disease as risk factors for IVIG resistance. The nomogram constructed using these factors showed satisfactory discriminatory power (AUC, 0.75), and sensitivity (0.74) and specificity (0.64). In the external data and prospective data, the AUC was 0.66 and 0.83, respectively, the sensitivity was 0.86 and 1, respectively, and the specificity was 0.49 and 0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive nomogram constructed using nine factors associated with IVIG resistance in children with Kawasaki disease could be a useful tool for identifying patients likely to show IVIG resistance. This nomogram may help reduce the risk of coronary artery lesions.Key MessagesNone of the IVIG resistance scoring systems has shown consistently good performance in previous studies. Tools to predict the risk of IVIG resistance in eastern China are lacking.In our series, haemoglobin level, percentage of neutrophils, platelet count, coronary artery damage, incomplete Kawasaki disease, and CRP, serum albumin, serum sodium, and serum alkaline phosphatase levels were risk factors of IVIG resistance in hospitalized children in the eastern China cities of Suzhou and Fuzhou.We propose an easy-to-use nomogram to predict the risk factors of IVIG resistance in hospitalized children.

Establishment and Validation of a Multivariate Predictive Scoring Model for Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistant Kawasaki Disease: A Study of Children From Two Centers in China

Background

Early identification of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease (KD) is important for making a suitable therapeutic strategy for children with KD.

Methods

This study included a training set and an external validation set. The training set included 635 children (588 IVIG-sensitive and 47 IVIG-resistant KD) hospitalized in Wuhan Children’s Hospital, Hubei, China. Univariate analyses and binary logistic regression equation was incorporated to find the associated variables of the IVIG-resistant KD. A scoring model for predicting IVIG-resistant KD was established according to odds ratio (OR) values and receiver operating characteristic curves. The external validation set consisted of 391 children (358 IVIG-sensitive and 33 IVIG-resistant KD) hospitalized in Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China. The predictive ability of the model of IVIG-resistant KD were externally validated by the real clinically diagnosed KD cases.

Results

Fifteen variables in the training set were statistically different between IVIG-sensitive and IVIG-resistant KD children, including rash, duration of fever, peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), percentage of monocytes and percentage of eosinophils, and serum alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin (TB), direct bilirubin, glutamyl transpeptidase, prealbumin, sodium ion, potassium ion and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. According to logistic equation analysis, the final three independent correlates to IVIG-resistant KD were serum TB ≥ 12.8 μmol/L, peripheral blood NLR ≥ 5.0 and peripheral blood PNI ≤ 52.4. According to the OR values, three variables were assigned the points of 2, 2 and 1, respectively. When the score was ≥ 3 points, the sensitivity to predict IVIG-resistant KD was 80.9% and the specificity was 77.6%. In the validation set, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the predictive model of IVIG-resistant KD were 72.7%, 84.9%, and 83.9%, respectively.

Conclusion

A scoring model was constructed to predict IVIG-resistant KD, which would greatly assist pediatricians in the early prediction of IVIG-resistant KD.

Predictive value of Albumin-Bilirubin grade for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in a large cohort of patients with Kawasaki disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance prediction is one of the primary clinical issues and study hotspots in KD. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the value of albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) in predicting IVIG resistance in KD and to assess whether ALBI has more predictive value or accuracy than either ALB or TBil alone in predicting IVIG resistance.

METHODS

A total of 823 patients with KD were prospectively enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between the IVIG-response group (n = 708) and the IVIG-resistance group (n = 115). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for IVIG resistance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was applied to assess the validity of ALBI, ALB, and TBil in predicting IVIG resistance.

RESULTS

ALBI was significantly higher in patients with IVIG resistance and was identified as an independent risk factor for IVIG resistance in KD. The parameter of ALBI ≥ - 2.57 (AUC: 0.705, 95 %CI: 0.672-0.736), ALB ≤ 33.0 g/L (AUC: 0.659, 95 %CI: 0.626-0.692), and TBil ≥ 16.0µmol/L (AUC: 0.626, 95 %CI: 0.592-0.659), produced a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 0.617, 0.657, 0.226 and 0.914; 0.374, 0.850, 0.289 and 0.893; 0.269, 0.941, 0.425 and 0.888, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher ALBI was an independent risk factor for IVIG resistance in KD. It yielded better predictive ability than ALB and TBil alone for initial IVIG resistance.

Homozygous of MRP4 Gene rs1751034 C Allele Is Related to Increased Risk of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Kawasaki Disease

Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis in childhood, which mainly causes damage to coronary arteries, and intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is the initial therapy. IVIG resistance increased risk of coronary complication in KD. And genetic background is involved in the occurrence of IVIG resistance. Our previous study indicated the susceptibility of Multi-drug resistance protein 4 (MRP4) SNPs to KD. This study was to clarify the relationship between MRP4 polymorphisms and IVIG resistance.

Methods: We genotyped the six polymorphisms of MRP4 gene in 760 cases of KD using Taqman methods.

Results: Among the six polymorphisms, only the rs1751034 polymorphism was significantly associated with IVIG resistance in KD [CC vs. TT: adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21–5.34; CC vs. TT/TC: adjusted OR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.12–4.83, p = 0.023]. Combined analysis of three polymorphisms indicated that patients with 3–6 risk genotypes exhibited significantly elevated risk of IVIG resistance, when compared with those with 0–2 risk genotypes (adjusted OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.04–2.22, p = 0.0295). Stratified analysis revealed that in term of age and gender, rs1751034 CC carriers were associated with increased risk of IVIG resistance in those aged ≤ 60 months (adjusted OR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.23–5.71, p = 0.0133). The presence of three or more risk genotypes was significantly associated with risk of IVIG resistance in children younger than 5 years of age and males.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that MRP4 rs1751034 CC is associated with increased risk of IVIG resistance in KD.

Prediction of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease in children

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore predictive measures for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in children with Kawasaki disease (KD).

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with KD were enrolled in this study. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression were utilized to analyze the clinical features and laboratory results prior to IVIG-treatment of the two groups. Independent predictors of IVIG resistance were analyzed, and a predictive model for KD children with IVIG resistance was constructed.

RESULTS

A total of 277 children with KD, 180 boys and 97 girls, aged 2-128 (median 23) months, were enrolled in the study. Compared with the IVIG-responsive group, the IVIG-resistant group had higher levels of the peripheral neutrophil count, mean platelet volume, mean platelet volume-to-lymphocyte ratio and C-reactive protein, and total serum bilirubin, but lower levels of peripheral lymphocyte count, serum albumin and serum prealbumin. Age (in months), peripheral neutrophil count, lymphocyte count and mean platelet volume and serum albumin were independent indicators for IVIG resistance by multivariate logistic regression analysis. A logistic regression model and a scoring system were set up, where cut-off values of - 0.46 and 6.5 points yielded sensitivities of 83.9% and 77.4%, and specificities of 74.8% and 61.0%, respectively. The areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.808 in the logistic regression model, and 0.750 in the scoring system.

CONCLUSION

Our model for predicting IVIG-resistant children with KD, involving age (months), peripheral neutrophil count, lymphocyte count and mean platelet volume and serum albumin prior to IVIG-treatment, is helpful for clinical prediction of children with IVIG-resistant KD.

Crucial transcripts predict response to initial immunoglobulin treatment in acute Kawasaki disease

Although intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) can effectively treat Kawasaki disease (KD), 10–20% of KD patients show no beneficial clinical response. Developing reliable criteria to discriminate non-responders is important for early planning of appropriate regimens. To predict the non-responders before IVIG treatment, gene expression dataset of 110 responders and 61 non-responders was obtained from Gene Expression Omnibus. After weighted gene co-expression network analysis, we found that modules positively correlated with the non-responders were mainly associated with myeloid cell activation. Transcripts up-regulated in the non-responders, IL1R2, GK, HK3, C5orf32, CXCL16, NAMPT and EMILIN2, were proven to play key roles via interaction with other transcripts in co-expression network. The crucial transcripts may affect the clinical response to IVIG treatment in acute KD. And these transcripts may serve as biomarkers and therapeutic targets for precise diagnosis and treatment of the non-responders.

Clinical observation of noncoronary cardiac abnormalities in Chinese children with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute, self-limited vasculitis. Coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) serves as a major contributor to the long-term prognosis of KD. In addition, acute KD usually also leads to several kinds of noncoronary cardiac abnormalities (NCA) involving the pericardium, myocardium and endocardium.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 142 Chinese children with KD were recruited from July 2015 to April 2018. Blood samples were collected at 24 hours pre-intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy. Several inflammatory mediators and biomarkers for acute myocardial infarction were detected. Echocardiography and electrocardiography (ECG) were performed.

RESULTS

Plasma white blood cell counts (WBC) were significantly increased in patients with IVIG-nonresponsive KD when compared with their IVIG-responsive counterparts. A total of 106 children (74.65%) suffered from NCA, including 8 patients (5.63%) with pericardial effusion, 23 patients (16.20%) with acute myocarditis, 101 patients (71.13%) with valvular regurgitation and 8 patients (5.63%) with abnormal ECG. No significant differences were observed in the distribution of clinical classification and the response to IVIG therapy regardless of NCA exhibited or not.

CONCLUSIONS

Noncoronary cardiac abnormalities is almost universal in acute KD and mainly manifests as valvular regurgitation. However, it has no influence on clinical classification and the response to IVIG therapy.

Prospective Evaluation of Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-lymphocyte Ratio for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in a Large Cohort of Kawasaki Disease Patients

The evaluation of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance prediction was prospectively performed in a large cohort of Kawasaki disease patients. It was found that the predictive values of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, alone or combined, were not good enough although they were identified as independent risk factors for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance.

A New Diagnostic Model to Distinguish Kawasaki Disease From Other Febrile Illnesses in Chongqing: A Retrospective Study on 10,367 Patients

Objective: Kawasaki disease (KD) is one of the most prevailing vasculitis among infants and young children, and has become the leading cause of acquired heart disease in childhood. Delayed diagnosis of KD can lead to serious cardiovascular complications. We sought to create a diagnostic model to help distinguish children with KD from children with other febrile illnesses [febrile controls (FCs)] to allow prompt treatment. Methods: Significant independent predictors were identified by applying multivariate logistic regression analyses. A new diagnostic model was constructed and compared with that from diagnostic tests created by other scholars. Results: Data from 10,367 patients were collected. Twelve independent predictors were determined: a lower percentage of monocytes (%MON), phosphorus, uric acid (UA), percentage of lymphocyte (%LYM), prealbumin, serum chloride, lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), aspartate aminotransferase: alanine transaminase (AST: ALT) ratio, higher level of globulin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), platelet count (PLT), and younger age. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of the new model for cross-validation of the KD diagnosis was 0.906 ± 0.006, 86.0 ± 0.9%, and 80.5 ± 1.5%, respectively. An equation was presented to assess the risk of KD, which was further validated using KD (n = 5,642) and incomplete KD (n = 809) cohorts. Conclusions: Children with KD could be distinguished effectively from children with other febrile illnesses by documenting the age and measuring the level of %MON, phosphorus, UA, globulin, %LYM, prealbumin, GGT, AST:ALT ratio, serum chloride, LDH, and PLT. This new diagnostic model could be employed for the accurate diagnosis of KD.

Predictive value of serum procalcitonin for both initial and repeated immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance prediction is one pivotal topic of interests in Kawasaki disease (KD) since those patients with KD resistant to IVIG might improve of an early-intensified therapy. Data regarding predictive value of procalcitonin (PCT) for IVIG resistance, particularly for repeated IVIG resistance in KD was limited. This study aimed to testify the predictive validity of PCT for both initial and repeated IVIG resistance in KD.

METHODS

A total of 530 KD patients were prospectively recruited between January 2015 and March 2019. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the association between PCT and IVIG resistance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was further performed to assess the validity of PCT in predicting both initial and repeated IVIG resistance.

RESULTS

The serum PCT level was significantly higher in initial IVIG-resistance group compared with IVIG-response group (p = 0.009), as well as between repeated IVIG responders and nonresponders (p = 0.017). The best PCT cutoff value for initial and repeated IVIG resistance prediction was 1.48 ng/ml and 2.88 ng/ml, respectively. The corresponding sensitivity was 53.9 and 51.4%, while the specificity were 71.8 and 73.2%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis failed to identify serum PCT level as an independent predictive factor for both initial and repeated IVIG resistance in KD.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum PCT levels were significantly higher in IVIG nonresponders, but PCT may not be suitable as a single marker to accurately predict both initial and repeated IVIG resistance in KD.

The role of age-specific N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide cutoff values in predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The prediction of resistance to intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) is currently still one of the main research areas in Kawasaki disease (KD). Several studies have reported on the use of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP) to this end. However, considering the age-dependency of NT-ProBNP levels, age- specific NT-ProBNP cutoff levels to predict IVIG resistance in KD might be more precise and should be evaluated.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study with standardized data collection involving 393 KD patients aged 1 month to 125 months was conducted between June 2015 and April 2018. The demographic characteristics, clinical manifestations and laboratory data were compared between the patients responding to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG-response group) and those who did not (IVIG-resistance group). We further distinguished four subgroups according to patients' age (< 1 year, 1-2 years, 2-6 years, > 6 years). The cutoff values of NT-ProBNP for the prediction of IVIG resistance overall and in the subgroups were obtained using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

In all KD patients, the level of NT-ProBNP was significantly higher in the IVIG-resistance compared to the IVIG-response group (P = 0.006). This findings was similar in the subgroups except for patients older than six years. The best cutoff values of NT-ProBNP to predict IVIG resistance were 3755 pg/ml for all KD patients, 3710 pg/ml, 2800 pg/ml, 2480 pg/ml for those aged 2-6 years, 1-2 years and < 1 year, respectively. The corresponding sensitivities were 44.0, 52.2, 50.0 and 75.0%, while the specifities were 84.1, 86.3, 77.9 and 71.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP is a complementary laboratory marker for the prediction of IVIG resistance in KD patients, particularly for those younger than one year. Applying age-specific cutoff values is more precise than one value for all ages.

A new model for predicting intravenous immunoglobin-resistant Kawasaki disease in Chongqing: a retrospective study on 5277 patients

Accurate evaluation of individual risk of intravenous immunoglobin (IVIG)-resistance is critical for adopting regimens for the first treatment and prevention of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD).

METHODS

The KD patients hospitalized in Chongqing Children's Hospital, in west China, from October 2007 to December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Data were collected and compared between IVIG-resistant group and IVIG-responsive group. The independent risk factors were determined using multivariate regression analysis. A new prediction model was built and compared with the previous models.

RESULTS

A total of 5277 subjects were studied and eight independent risk factors were identified including higher red blood cell distribution width (RDW), lower platelet count (PLT), lower percentage of lymphocyte (P-LYM), higher total bile acid (TBA), lower albumin, lower serum sodium level, higher degree of CALs (D-CALs) and younger age. The new predictive model showed an AUC of 0.74, sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 59%. For individual's risk probability of IVIG-resistance, an equation was given.

CONCLUSIONS

IVIG-resistance could be predicted by RDW, PLT, P-LYM, TBA, albumin, serum sodium level, D-CALs and age. The new model appeared to be superior to those previous models for KD population in Chongqing city.

A New Scoring System for Prediction of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance of Kawasaki Disease in Infants Under 1-Year Old

Background: Children with Kawasaki disease (KD) under 1-year old are at high risk for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance. The study was designed to explore the predictive measure of IVIG resistance in infants under 1-year old with KD. Methods: This study enrolled children under 1-year old suffering from KD in Peking University First Hospital and Wuhan Children's Hospital. All infants were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. The differences in demographic characteristics, clinical features, and laboratory examinations were compared and the risk factors of IVIG resistant KD were analyzed. Furthermore, a scoring system was developed for predicting IVIG resistance in KD infants and an external validation was performed. Result: A total of 282 infants (194 boys, median age of 7.0 months) were enrolled in this study, of whom 23 children were IVIG-resistant. Compared with IVIG-responsive infants, those in the IVIG-resistant group had a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), high platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), high mean platelet volume-to-lymphocyte ratio (MPVLR) in peripheral blood, and low serum albumin, and low serum sodium before IVIG therapy (all P < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis indicated that high levels of peripheral NLR and MPVLR, and low levels of serum albumin and serum sodium were independent risk factors for IVIG resistant KD infants. A scoring system, which included peripheral NLR ≥ 2.69 (1 point), MPVLR ≥ 2.78 (1 point), serum albumin ≤ 30.7 g/L (1 point), and serum sodium ≤ 135.2 mmol/L (1 point), was established. A cut-off value of a total score of 2 points or higher yielded a sensitivity of 87.0% and a specificity of 78.4%, with an area under the curve of 0.891. External validation with clinical diagnostic standard showed that a cut-off value of total score of 2 points or higher for predicting the IVIG-resistance yielded a sensitivity of 70.0% and a specificity of 75.1%. Conclusion: For the first time, we proposed a predictive model of IVIG resistance in KD infants under 1-year old. The scoring system, which accounts for baseline peripheral NLR, MPVLR, and serum albumin and sodium, predicts with relatively high sensitivity and specificity for IVIG-resistant infants with KD under 1-year old.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistance in Infants Under 12-Months Old With Kawasaki Disease

Objective: We evaluated the ability of peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict the intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients under 1-year of age. Methods: A total of 92 KD patients under the age of 1-year and who were hospitalized in Peking University First Hospital from June 2007 to August 2016 were recruited in this study. The clinical and laboratory data were analyzed to see if peripheral blood NLR was useful for predicting the IVIG-resistance in KD. Results: Totally 81 out of 92 patients were IVIG responders while 11 resistant to IVIG, with no significant difference in age, gender, ratio of the number of the incomplete to the number of complete KD, and the number of patients with coronary artery lesion between two groups (p > 0.05). Peripheral blood NLR was increased significantly in IVIG-resistant children compared to the IVIG responders [2.6 (interquartile range: 1.4, 3.8) vs. 1.7 (interquartile range: 0.9, 2.3), p = 0.039]. A cut-off value of NLR of 2.51 in KD patients younger than 1-year old yielded a sensitivity of 0.545 and specificity of 0.840, respectively, in the prediction of IVIG resistance. An area under the curve of 0.692 (95% confidence interval 0.526-0.859, p = 0.039) was determined. Conclusions: The peripheral blood NLR ≥ 2.51 is useful to predict the IVIG resistance in KD patients younger than 1-year old.