A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Self-testing strategy to eliminate hepatitis C as per World Health Organization's goal: Analysis of disease burden and cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030; therefore, widespread HCV screening is required. The WHO recommends HCV self-testing (HCVST) as a new approach. We aimed to evaluate disease burden reduction using the HCVST screening strategy and identify the most cost-effective approach.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic open-cohort Markov model to assess the long-term effects and costeffectiveness of HCVST in the Republic of Korea from 2024 to 2030. Strategies for comparison included universal, birth cohort, high-risk group screening, and no screening, focusing on the following: (1) incremental costeffectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) saved; (2) severe liver disease cases; and (3) liverrelated death reduction.

RESULTS

Universal HCVST screening is the most effective strategy for achieving the WHO goal by 2030, substantially lowering the incidence of severe liver disease by 71% and preventing liver-related deaths by 69%, thereby averting 267,942 DALYs. Moreover, with an ICER of US$8,078 per DALY and high cost-effectiveness, the sensitivity results prove that cost-effectiveness is robust. Although high-risk group screening offers the lowest cost compared with other strategies, its effectiveness in preventing severe liver disease is minimal, falling short of the current WHO goal.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms that universal HCVST screening is a cost-effective strategy aligned with the WHO goal to eliminate HCV by 2030. Despite its higher costs compared to risk-based screening, the disease burden can be significantly reduced by providing effective HCVST access to individuals who might otherwise not be tested.

Influence of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease on the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

OBJECTIVES

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has clinical relevance in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We investigated the association between MAFLD and prognosis in patients with ACLF.

METHODS

We included patients with ACLF with available clinical data who visited our hospital for nearly 9 years. We compared the prognosis of patients in the different subgroups of ACLF and predicted the incidence of adverse outcomes. Moreover, a new model based on MAFLD was established.

RESULTS

Among 339 participants, 75 had MAFLD. The prognosis of patients with ACLF was significantly correlated with MAFLD. Patients with ACLF with concomitant MAFLD tended to have a lower cumulative survival rate (p = 0.026) and a higher incidence of hepatorenal syndrome (9.33% versus 3.40%, p = 0.033) than those without MAFLD. We developed an TIM2 model and the area under the ROC curve of the new model for 30-day and 60-day mortality (0.759 and 0.748) was higher than other predictive methods.

CONCLUSION

The presence of MAFLD in patients with HBV-related ACLF was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Moreover, The TIM2 model is a high-performance prognostic score for HBV-related ACLF.

Glucocorticoid Treatment Strategies in Liver Failure

Liver failure is characterized by serious liver decompensation and high mortality. The activation of systemic immune responses and systemic inflammation are widely accepted as the core pathogenesis of liver failure. Glucocorticoids (GCs) are most regularly utilized to suppress excessive inflammatory reactions and immunological responses. GCs have been used in the clinical treatment of liver failure for nearly 60 years. While there has been no unanimity on the feasibility and application of GC treatment in liver failure until recently. The most recent trials have produced conflicting results when it comes to the dose and time for GC therapy of different etiology of liver failure. Our review outlines the issues and options in managing GC treatment in liver failure based on an investigation of the molecular mechanism that GC may give in the treatment.

Novel Prognostic Models for Predicting the 180-day Outcome for Patients with Hepatitis-B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) using existing prognostic models. The present study aimed to derive novel-innovative models to enhance the predictive effectiveness of the 180-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

The present cohort study examined 171 HBV-ACLF patients (non-survivors, n=62; survivors, n=109). The 27 retrospectively collected parameters included the basic demographic characteristics, clinical comorbidities, and laboratory values. Backward stepwise logistic regression (LR) and the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to derive two predictive models. Meanwhile, a nomogram was created based on the LR analysis. The accuracy of the LR and CART model was detected through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), compared with model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores.

RESULTS

Among 171 HBV-ACLF patients, the mean age was 45.17 years-old, and 11.7% of the patients were female. The LR model was constructed with six independent factors, which included age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, lymphocytes, monocytes and hepatic encephalopathy. The following seven variables were the prognostic factors for HBV-ACLF in the CART model: age, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and blood urea nitrogen. The AUROC for the CART model (0.878) was similar to that for the LR model (0.878, p=0.898), and this exceeded that for the MELD scores (0.728, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The LR and CART model are both superior to the MELD scores in predicting the 180-day mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF. Both the LR and CART model can be used as medical decision-making tools by clinicians.

Effect of type 2 diabetic mellitus in the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients in China

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients have a high short-term mortality rate, and the severity evaluation of ACLF is necessary for prognostication. Therefore, it was meaningful to evaluate the association between type 2 diabetic mellitus (DM) and ACLF and further explore the feasibility of using DM as a prognostic indicator in ACLF patients. The association between type 2 DM and the prognosis of patients with severe liver disease remains unclear.

AIM

To examine the effect of type 2 DM on the prognosis of patients with ACLF.

METHODS

Clinical data from 222 ACLF patients were collected and analyzed. The patients were categorized into two groups depending on whether they had DM or not, and the clinical data of ACLF patients were measured within 48 h after admission. Complications of ACLF were documented during treatment, such as hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and spontaneous peritonitis (SBP). Values of laboratory parameters, complication rates, and hospital mortality rates were compared between two groups.

RESULTS

Among 222 ACLF patients, 38 cases were categorized into DM groups, the mean age was 56.32 years and 73.68% were male. The prognosis of ACLF patients was significantly correlated with DM in univariate [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.5-3.7, P < 0.001] and multivariable analysis (HR = 3.17, 95%CI =1.82-5.523, P < 0.001). The incident of SBP (34.21% vs 13.59%, P = 0.038) and other infections like lung, urinary, blood, and cholecyst (44.74% vs 28.26%, P = 0.046) were higher in DM patients than non-DM counterparts. In addition, the ACLF patients with DM tended to have a high mortality rate (P < 0.001). Cumulative survival time was also significantly shorter in the ACLF patients with DM than non-DM.

CONCLUSION

A significant association between DM and the prognosis of ACLF patients was found in China. The ACLF patients with DM had higher incidence of hospital mortality and infection than those without DM.

The efficacy and safety of methylprednisolone in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a prospective multi-center clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a severe condition with high mortality due to lack of efficient therapy. Until now, the use of methylprednisolone (MP) in HBV-ACLF is still controversial. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of MP in HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Totally 171 HBV-ACLF patients from three medical centers were randomly allocated into MP group (83 patients treated with MP intravenously guttae for 7 days plus standard treatment: 1.5 mg/kg/day [day 1-3], 1 mg/kg/day [day 4-5], and 0.5 mg/kg/day [day 6-7]) and control group (88 patients treated with standard treatment). The primary endpoints were 6-month mortality and prognostic factors for 6-month survival. The survival time, cause of death, adverse events, liver function, and HBV DNA replication were analyzed.

RESULTS

The 6-month mortality was significantly lower in MP group than control group [32.4% vs. 42.5%, P = 0.0037]. MP treatment was an independent prognostic factor for 6-month survival [HR (95% CI) 0.547(0.308-0.973); P = 0.040]. Factors associated with reduced 6-month mortality in MP group included HBV DNA and lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR) (P < 0.05). Based on ROC curve, LMR+MELD had a better predictive value for prognosis of HBV-ACLF under MP treatment. No significant difference in HBV DNA replication was observed between groups (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

MP therapy is an effective and safe clinical strategy in HBV-ACLF, increasing the 6-month survival rate. Clinical trials registered at http://www.chictr.org.cn as ChiCTR-TRC-13003113 registered on 16 March 2013.

Mucosal-associated invariant T cells in hepatitis B virus-related liver failure

BACKGROUND

Liver failure has high mortality and poor prognosis, and establishing new reliable markers for predicting its prognosis is necessary. Mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are a novel population of innate-like lymphocytes involved in inflammatory liver disease, and their potential role in liver failure remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate alteration of circulating MAIT cells and assess its prognostic value in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver failure.

METHODS

We recruited 55 patients with HBV-related liver failure, 48 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 40 healthy controls (HCs) from Nantong Third People’s Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were isolated, and the percentage and number of circulating MAIT cells were detected by flow cytometry. Plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-7, IL-12p70, IL-18 and interferon-α were measured by Luminex assay.

RESULTS

Circulating MAIT cells were significantly decreased in HBV-related liver failure patients (percentage: 2.00 ± 1.22 vs 5.19 ± 1.27%, P < 0.0001; number: 5.47 ± 4.93 vs 84.43 ± 19.59, P < 0.0001) compared with HCs. More importantly, there was a significant reduction of MAIT cells in patients with middle/late-stage compared with early-stage liver failure. Circulating MAIT cells partially recovered after disease improvement, both in percentage (4.01 ± 1.21 vs 2.04 ± 0.95%, P < 0.0001) and in cell count (17.24 ± 8.56 vs 7.41 ± 4.99, P < 0.0001). The proportion (2.29 ± 1.01 vs 1.58 ± 1.38%, P < 0.05) and number (7.30 ± 5.70 vs 2.94 ± 1.47, P < 0.001) of circulating MAIT cells were significantly higher in the survival group than in the dead/liver transplantation group, and the Kaplan–Meier curve showed that lower expression of circulating MAIT cells (both percentage and cell count) predicted poor overall survival (P < 0.01). Also, the levels of IL-12 (20.26 ± 5.42 pg/mL vs 17.76 ± 2.79 pg/mL, P = 0.01) and IL-18 (1470.05 ± 1525.38 pg/mL vs 362.99 ± 109.64 pg/mL, P < 0.0001) were dramatically increased in HBV-related liver failure patients compared with HCs.

CONCLUSION

Circulating MAIT cells may play an important role in the process of HBV-related liver failure and can be an important prognostic marker.

The Management of Glucocorticoid Therapy in Liver Failure

Liver failure is characterized by rapid progression and high mortality. Excessive systemic inflammation is considered as the trigger of liver failure. Glucocorticoids (GCs) can rapidly suppress excessive inflammatory reactions and immune response. GCs have been applied in the treatment of liver failure since the 1970s. However, until now, the use of GCs in the treatment of liver failure has been somewhat unclear and controversial. New research regarding the molecular mechanisms of GCs may explain the controversial actions of GCs in liver failure. More results should be confirmed in a larger randomized clinical trial; this can aid the discovery of better definitions in terms of treatment schedules according to different clinical settings. Meanwhile, the timing and dosing of GCs in the treatment of liver failure should also be explored.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific association for the study of the liver (APASL): an update

The first consensus report of the working party of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) set up in 2004 on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was published in 2009. With international groups volunteering to join, the "APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)" was formed in 2012, which continued to collect prospective ACLF patient data. Based on the prospective data analysis of nearly 1400 patients, the AARC consensus was published in 2014. In the past nearly four-and-a-half years, the AARC database has been enriched to about 5200 cases by major hepatology centers across Asia. The data published during the interim period were carefully analyzed and areas of contention and new developments in the field of ACLF were prioritized in a systematic manner. The AARC database was also approached for answering some of the issues where published data were limited, such as liver failure grading, its impact on the 'Golden Therapeutic Window', extrahepatic organ dysfunction and failure, development of sepsis, distinctive features of acute decompensation from ACLF and pediatric ACLF and the issues were analyzed. These initiatives concluded in a two-day meeting in October 2018 at New Delhi with finalization of the new AARC consensus. Only those statements, which were based on evidence using the Grade System and were unanimously recommended, were accepted. Finalized statements were again circulated to all the experts and subsequently presented at the AARC investigators meeting at the AASLD in November 2018. The suggestions from the experts were used to revise and finalize the consensus. After detailed deliberations and data analysis, the original definition of ACLF was found to withstand the test of time and be able to identify a homogenous group of patients presenting with liver failure. New management options including the algorithms for the management of coagulation disorders, renal replacement therapy, sepsis, variceal bleed, antivirals and criteria for liver transplantation for ACLF patients were proposed. The final consensus statements along with the relevant background information and areas requiring future studies are presented here.

Mitofusin2, as a Protective Target in the Liver, Controls the Balance of Apoptosis and Autophagy in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Aim: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is closely related to mitochondrial dysfunction. Previous studies showed the vital role of mitofusin2 (Mfn2) in the regulation of mitochondrial function. However, the effect of Mfn2 on ACLF remains unknown. As one of mitochondrial-related pathways, BNIP3-mediated pathway controls the balance between apoptosis and autophagy. However, the relationship between Mfn2 and BNIP3-mediated pathway in ACLF is still obscure. The aim of our study is to clarify the effect of Mfn2 and potential molecular mechanisms in ACLF. Methods: We collected liver tissue from ACLF patients and constructed an ACLF animal model and a hepatocyte autophagy injury model, using adenovirus and lentivirus to deliver Mfn2 and Mfn2-siRNA to liver cells, in order to assess the effect of Mfn2 on autophagy and apoptosis in ACLF. We explored the biological mechanisms of Mfn2-induced autophagy and apoptosis of ACLF through Western blotting, Quantitative Real-Time PCR (RT-PCR), transmission electron microscopy, immunofluorescence, immunohistochemical staining, and hematoxylin-eosin staining. Results: Compared with the normal liver tissue, the expressions of Mfn2, Atg5, Beclin1, and LC3-II/I were significantly decreased and the expression of P62 was much higher in patients with ACLF. Mfn2 significantly attenuated ACLF, characterized via microscopic histopathology and reduced serum AST and ALT levels. Mfn2 promoted the expressions of ATP synthase β, Atg5, Beclin1, LC3-II/I, and Bcl2 and reduced the expressions of P62, Bax, and BNIP3. Conclusions: Mfn2 plays a protective role in the progression of ACLF. BNIP3-mediated signaling pathway is not the only factor associated with Mfn2 controlling the balance of apoptosis and autophagy in ACLF. Mfn2 will provide a promising therapeutic target for patients with ACLF.

The clinical parameters for the diagnosis of hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure with sepsis

It is still unknown that whether sepsis with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) fit into the conventional diagnostic criteria of sepsis. Our aim was to investigate the potential clinical parameters for the diagnosis of HBV-ACLF with sepsis. A retrospective study was conducted in 43 patients with HBV-ACLF and sepsis who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation. All patients were divided into three groups according to the pathological results and laboratory test results. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining, hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and Gordon Sweet's reticulin staining were performed in this study. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartale aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBiL), cholinesterase (CHE), albumin (ALB), prothrombin activity (PTA), blood routine examination were detected. The results being chosen at admission and before transplantation were analyzed. TBiL had a significant increase (563.5 ± 191.8 umol/L vs. 383.9 ± 157.6 umol/L, 438.3 ± 154.7 umol/L, P = 0.031) and ALT significantly decreased (81.6 ± 66.4 U/L, 754.5 ± 1084.7 U/L, 120.6 ± 102.5 U/L, P = 0.005) in sepsis group before liver transplantation. When sepsis appeared in patients with HBV-ACLF, the ratio of PLT to WBC count before liver transplantation was much lower than it at admission (4.6 ± 2.0 vs. 16.1 ± 7.2, P = 0.000). In conclusion, the clinical parameters of sepsis in patients with HBV-ACLF should be reset. The ratio of PLT/WBC and (WBCBLT/WBCAA)/ (PLTBLT/PLTAA) could remind us the occurring of sepsis in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Management of acute-on-chronic liver failure: an algorithmic approach

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct syndrome of liver failure in a patient with chronic liver disease presenting with jaundice, coagulopathy and ascites and/or hepatic encephalopathy, developing following an acute hepatic insult and associated with high 28-day mortality. The definition though lacks global consensus, excludes patients with known distinct entities such as acute liver failure and those with end-stage liver disease. The initial Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) because of cytokine storm in relation to acute insult and/or subsequent development of sepsis due to immunoparalysis leads to extrahepatic organ failure. These cascades of events progress through a 'Golden Window' period of about 7 days, subsequent to which majority of the patients develop complications, such as sepsis and extrahepatic organ failure. Prevention of sepsis, support of organs and management of organ failure (commonly hepatic, renal, cerebral, coagulation) and early referral for transplant is crucial. The APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) liver failure score is a dynamic prognostic model for management decisions and is superior to existing models. Aggressive multidisciplinary approach can lead to a transplant-free survival in nearly half of the cases. The present review provides an algorithmic approach to management of organ failure, sepsis prevention, use of dynamic prognostic models for management decision and is aimed to improve the skills for managing and improving the outcomes of such critically ill patients.