Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no 'rule of thumb' for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Economics of rewilding

Rewilding, a concept often defined as an open-ended approach to ecological restoration that aims to establish self-sustaining ecosystems, has gained much interest in recent conservation science and practice. The economic dimensions of rewilding remain understudied, despite repeated calls for research, and we find that synthetic or programmatic contributions to the scientific literature are still missing. Here, we mined Scopus and Web of Science databases through a systematic review, looking for "rewilding" with various economic terms in the peer-reviewed literature, in the English language. We then screened out a 257 references-rich corpus with 14 variables, including the position of rewilding regarding positive and negative economic effects in specific sectors, and geographical or ecological foci. Our corpus amounts to ca. 40% of recent rewilding literature, with a clear emphasis on European study sites and the economic consequences of rewilding initiatives. Rewilding studies often refer to positive economic impacts on tourism and hunting, e.g., through higher income and employment rates, although very few studies properly quantify these. Conversely, most authors find rewilding harms farming, which is threatened by abandonment and damages by wildlife, raising interest in potential EU subsidy regimes. We highlight the surprising paucity of rewilding literature truly focusing on economics and/or providing detailed quantification-with remarkable exceptions. While rewilding's ecological relevance is no longer in question, demonstrating its economic benefits and sustainability will undoubtedly help scaling up. Thus, we advise rewilders to systematically measure and report investments and outcomes of rewilding initiatives, and to adopt common standards for cost and benefit assessments.

The human side of biodiversity: coevolution of the human niche, palaeo-synanthropy and ecosystem complexity in the deep human past

Today's biodiversity crisis fundamentally threatens the habitability of the planet, thus ranking among the primary human challenges of our time. Much emphasis is currently placed on the loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene, yet these debates often portray biodiversity as a purely natural phenomenon without much consideration of its human dimensions and frequently lack long-term vistas. This paper offers a deep-time perspective on the key role of the evolving human niche in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity dynamics. We summarize research on past hunter-gatherer ecosystem contributions and argue that human-environment feedback systems with important biodiversity consequences are probably a recurrent feature of the Late Pleistocene, perhaps with even deeper roots. We update current understandings of the human niche in this light and suggest that the formation of palaeo-synanthropic niches in other animals proffers a powerful model system to investigate recursive interactions of foragers and ecosystems. Archaeology holds important knowledge here and shows that ecosystem contributions vary greatly in relation to different human lifeways, some of which are lost today. We therefore recommend paying more attention to the intricate relationship between biodiversity and cultural diversity, contending that promotion of the former depends on fostering the latter. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Building references for nature conservation

Conservation references have long been used in conservation biology to compare current biodiversity processes and states with past conditions. However, beyond the paucity of data for the construction of ancient, even prehuman, references, the relevance of these ancient references for studying ecosystems radically modified by human activities is questionable, particularly when the notions of conservation references and conservation objectives are confused and when several conservation ethics coexist that require distinct references. Because of this implicit heterogeneity in the nature of the references and their temporal baseline, conservation references not only have different meanings, but also deliver different messages. I propose establishing a common framework for conservation references to approach past biological systems and build comparable references between studies and projects. The selection of these references (distinct from conservation objectives) should be an early, explicit, standardized, and transparent milestone in any conservation process and these references should be based on state, pressure, or process dynamics, rather than fixed states. Finally, the importance of the diversity of temporal baselines used to build conservation references and to measure anthropogenic impacts should be recognized to understand the biodiversity crisis in its entirety.

Contrasting impacts of non-native and threatened species on morphological, life history, and phylogenetic diversity in bird assemblages

Human activities have altered the species composition of assemblages through introductions and extinctions, but it remains unclear how those changes can affect the different facets of biodiversity. Here we assessed the impact of changes in species composition on taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity across 281 bird assemblages worldwide. To provide a more nuanced understanding of functional diversity, we distinguished morphological from life-history traits. We showed that shifts in species composition could trigger a global decline in avian biodiversity due to the high number of potential extinctions. Moreover, these extinctions were not random but unique in terms of function and phylogeny at the regional level. Our findings demonstrated that non-native species cannot compensate for these losses, as they are both morphologically and phylogenetically close to the native fauna. In the context of the ongoing biodiversity crisis, such alterations in the functional and phylogenetic structure of bird assemblages could heighten ecosystem vulnerability.

Towards understanding human-environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case

The overall trajectory for the human-environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well as of expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern has been explained in terms of an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, the evoked demographic-resource-complexity mechanisms have not been empirically tested. By integrating proxy data for population sizes, palaeoclimate and internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from the population dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population sizes, warfare and social upscaling) and exogenous (climate) variables module the dynamic in past agrarian societies. We focused on the inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities by engineering arid and semi-arid landscapes during the last 2000 years. Our modelling approach indicates that these populations experienced a boom-and-bust dynamic over the last millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback between population sizes, hydroclimate, social upscaling, warfare and ecosystem engineering. Thus, the human-environment loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources and the ability of problem-solving. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

How greedy is too greedy? A network toy model for evaluating the sustainability of biased evolutionary dynamics

Modern humanity has changed the biosphere at a global scale, threatening its own sustainability. It is claimed that through technology humans maximize the extraction of energy from the natural system towards their own benefit, with rates of appropriation that surpass the time-scales for systemic adaptation. This time-decoupled coevolutionary dynamic is at the core of human societal unsustainability. Here, we developed in silico experiments of an open energy-based flowing network toy model of natural systems and study the effects that greedy evolutionary strategies, resembling human societal demands, have upon the performance and scarcity tolerance of the system. We aim to determine the flexibility that those biased evolutionary dynamics have for matching or surpassing natural evolution outcomes. We studied four different indexes of system's growth and development (total system throughflow (TST), average mutual information, ascendency and entropy difference) and compare their scarcity tolerance and performance outcomes with respect to four different greedy scenarios. The results showed that greedy strategies rarely surpassed the tolerance and performance achieved by natural systemic evolution. The nature of the greedy scenarios developed were closely related to increases in TST and therefore, we emphasized this comparison. Here, the maximum percentage of greedy networks capable of surpassing natural dynamics was around one-third (approx. [Formula: see text]). However, results suggest the existence of a space parameter where local increases of energy flow can outperform the outcomes of natural systemic evolution, but no evident network property seems to characterize those greedy networks. A mild inverse relationship was found between the number of links that greedy nodes have towards the output and their capacity to outpass the control evolution. As many of the human societal effect upon biospheric processes have dissipative byproducts, knowing that such dynamics might diminish the systems tolerance and performance suggest care in their (ab)use. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Social-ecological niche construction for sustainability: understanding destructive processes and exploring regenerative potentials

Through the exponential expansion of human activities, humanity has become the driving force of global environmental change. The consequent global sustainability crisis has been described as a result of a uniquely human form of adaptability and niche construction. In this paper, we introduce the concept of social-ecological niche construction focusing on biophysical interactions and outcomes. We use it to address destructive processes and to discuss potential regenerative ones as ways to overcome them. From a niche construction point of view, the increasing disconnections between human activities and environmental feedbacks appear as a success story in the history of human-nature coevolution because they enable humans to expand activities virtually without being limited by environmental constraints. However, it is still poorly understood how suppressed environmental feedbacks affect future generations and other species, or which lock-ins and self-destructive dynamics may unfold in the long-term. This is crucial as the observed escape from natural selection requires growing energy input and represents a temporal deferral rather than an actual liberation from material limitations. Relying on our proposal, we conclude that, instead of further taming nature, there is need to explore the potential of how to tame socio-metabolic growth and impact in niche construction processes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis

How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead societies on a trajectory of global sustainability? The astonishing growth in human population, economic activity and environmental impact has brought these questions to the fore. This theme issue pulls together a variety of traditions that seek to address these questions using different theories and methods. In this Introduction, we review and organize the major strands of work on how the Anthropocene evolved, how evolutionary dynamics are influencing sustainability efforts today, and what principles, strategies and capacities will be important to guide us towards global sustainability in the future. We present a set of synthetic insights and highlight frontiers for future research efforts which could contribute to a consolidated synthesis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions

We propose that the global environmental crises of the Anthropocene are the outcome of a ratcheting process in long-term human evolution which has favoured groups of increased size and greater environmental exploitation. To explore this hypothesis, we review the changes in the human ecological niche. Evidence indicates the growth of the human niche has been facilitated by group-level cultural traits for environmental control. Following this logic, sustaining the biosphere under intense human use will probably require global cultural traits, including legal and technical systems. We investigate the conditions for the evolution of global cultural traits. We estimate that our species does not exhibit adequate population structure to evolve these traits. Our analysis suggests that characteristic patterns of human group-level cultural evolution created the Anthropocene and will work against global collective solutions to the environmental challenges it poses. We illustrate the implications of this theory with alternative evolutionary paths for humanity. We conclude that our species must alter longstanding patterns of cultural evolution to avoid environmental disaster and escalating between-group competition. We propose an applied research and policy programme with the goal of avoiding these outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations

Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena. Human populations tend to show rapid expansions from low to high population density along with increased social complexity in just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as a remarkable feature of Homo sapiens population dynamics, most likely fuelled by the ability to accumulate cultural/technological innovations that actively modify their environment. We are especially interested in establishing if the demographic transitions of pre-historic populations show the same dynamic signature of the Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between population growth rates and size). Our results show that population growth patterns across different pre-historic societies were similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution in developed western societies. These features, which appear to have been operating during most of our recent demographic history from hunter-gatherers to modern industrial societies, imply that the dynamics of cooperation underlay sudden population transitions in human societies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Local human impacts disrupt depth-dependent zonation of tropical reef fish communities

The influence of depth and associated gradients in light, nutrients and plankton on the ecological organization of tropical reef communities was first described over six decades ago but remains untested across broad geographies. During this time humans have become the dominant driver of planetary change, requiring that we revisit historic ecological paradigms to ensure they capture the dynamics of contemporary ecological systems. Analysing >5,500 in-water reef fish surveys between 0 and 30 m depth on reef slopes of 35 islands across the Pacific, we assess whether a depth gradient consistently predicts variation in reef fish biomass. We reveal predictable ecological organization at unpopulated locations, with increased biomass of planktivores and piscivores and decreased primary consumer biomass with increasing depth. Bathymetric steepness also had a striking influence on biomass patterns, primarily for planktivores, emphasizing potential links between local hydrodynamics and the upslope propagation of pelagic subsidies to the shallows. However, signals of resource-driven change in fish biomass with depth were altered or lost for populated islands, probably due to depleted fish biomass baselines. While principles of depth zonation broadly held, our findings expose limitations of the paradigm for predicting ecological dynamics where human impacts confound connections between ecological communities and their surrounding environment.

North American pollen records provide evidence for macroscale ecological changes in the Anthropocene

Recent global changes associated with anthropogenic activities are impacting ecological systems globally, giving rise to the Anthropocene. Critical reorganization of biological communities and biodiversity loss are expected to accelerate as anthropogenic global change continues. Long-term records offer context for understanding baseline conditions and those trajectories that are beyond the range of normal fluctuation seen over recent millennia: Are we causing changes that are fundamentally different from changes in the past? Using a rich dataset of late Quaternary pollen records, stored in the open-access and community-curated Neotoma database, we analyzed changes in biodiversity and community composition since the end Pleistocene in North America. We measured taxonomic richness, short-term taxonomic loss and gain, first/last appearances (FAD/LAD), and abrupt community change. For all analyses, we incorporated age-model uncertainty and accounted for differences in sample size to generate conservative estimates. The most prominent signals of elevated vegetation change were seen during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and since 200 calendar years before present (cal YBP). During the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, abrupt changes and FADs were elevated, and from 200 to -50 cal YBP, we found increases in short-term taxonomic loss, FADs, LADs, and abrupt changes. Taxonomic richness declined from ~13,000 cal YBP until about 6,000 cal YBP and then increased until the present, reaching levels seen during the end Pleistocene. Regionally, patterns were highly variable. These results show that recent changes associated with anthropogenic impacts are comparable to the landscape changes that took place as we moved from a glacial to interglacial world.

Evidence for hunter-gatherer impacts on raven diet and ecology in the Gravettian of Southern Moravia

The earlier Gravettian of Southern Moravia-the Pavlovian-is notable for the many raven bones (Corvus corax) documented in its faunal assemblages. On the basis of the rich zooarchaeological and settlement data from the Pavlovian, previous work suggested that common ravens were attracted by human domestic activities and subsequently captured by Pavlovian people, presumably for feathers and perhaps food. Here, we report independent δ15N, δ13C and δ34S stable isotope data obtained from 12 adult ravens from the Pavlovian key sites of Předmostí I, Pavlov I and Dolní Věstonice I to test this idea. We show that Pavlovian ravens regularly fed on larger herbivores and especially mammoths, aligning in feeding preferences with contemporaneous Gravettian foragers. We argue that opportunistic-generalist ravens were encouraged by human settlement and carcass provisioning. Our data may thus provide surprisingly early evidence for incipient synanthropism among Palaeolithic ravens. We suggest that anthropogenic manipulation of carrion supply dynamics furnished unique contexts for the emergence of human-oriented animal behaviours, in turn promoting novel human foraging opportunities-dynamics which are therefore important for understanding early hunter-gatherer ecosystem impacts.

Investigation of the highly endangered Pinna nobilis' mass mortalities: Seasonal and temperature patterns of health status, antioxidant and heat stress responses

Recently, P. nobilis populations have suffered a tremendous reduction, with pathogens potentially playing a crucial role. Considering its highly endangered status, mechanisms leading to mass mortalities were examined in one or multiple pathogens infected populations. Thus, seasonal antioxidant enzymatic activities, hsp70 and catalase mRNA levels, were investigated in two different Greek populations, during mass mortality events in summer of 2020. Samples were collected from Fthiotis and Lesvos during February (T^oC 14 ± 1.2 and 15 ± 1 respectively), April (T^oC 18 ± 1.2 and 17 ± 1.3 respectively), and June (T^oC 24.5 ± 1.5 and 21.5 ± 1.5 respectively) 2020. In July of the same year (T^oC 26.5 ± 1.7 in Fthiotis and 24.5 ± 1.7 in Lesvos), no live specimens were found. All biochemical parameters and phylogenetic analysis suggest that pathogen infection increases P. nobilis sensitivity to water temperature, subsequently leading to mass mortality. The latter was obvious in Fthiotis individuals, in which Haplosporidium pinnae was also observed with Mycobacterium spp., compared to Lesvos individuals.

Earth Systems to Anthropocene Systems: An Evolutionary, System-of-Systems, Convergence Paradigm for Interdependent Societal Challenges

Humans have made profound changes to the Earth. The resulting societal challenges of the Anthropocene (e.g., climate change and impacts, renewable energy, adaptive infrastructure, disasters, pandemics, food insecurity, and biodiversity loss) are complex and systemic, with causes, interactions, and consequences that cascade across a globally connected system of systems. In this Critical Review, we turn to our "origin story" for insight, briefly tracing the formation of the Universe and the Earth, the emergence of life, the evolution of multicellular organisms, mammals, primates, and humans, as well as the more recent societal transitions involving agriculture, urbanization, industrialization, and computerization. Focusing on the evolution of the Earth, genetic evolution, the evolution of the brain, and cultural evolution, which includes technological evolution, we identify a nested evolutionary sequence of geophysical, biophysical, sociocultural, and sociotechnical systems, emphasizing the causal mechanisms that first formed, and then transformed, Earth systems into Anthropocene systems. Describing how the Anthropocene systems coevolved, and briefly illustrating how the ensuing societal challenges became tightly integrated across multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales, we conclude by proposing an evolutionary, system-of-systems, convergence paradigm for the entire family of interdependent societal challenges of the Anthropocene.

The history of natural history and race: Decolonizing human dimensions of ecology

Natural history, loosely defined as the observational study of organisms in the habitats where they occur, is recognized at the roots of ecology. Although the centrality of natural history in ecology has shifted over time, natural history is currently in resurgence: many again consider it to be the foundation of ecological and evolutionary inquiry and advocate the value of organism-centered approaches to address contemporary ecological challenges. Educators identify natural history as the foundational entryway into the practice of ecology, for example in the Ecological Society of America's Four-Dimensional Ecology Education (4DEE) framework. A strong natural history foundation can help generate testable hypotheses to refine mechanistic understanding of the drivers regulating species distributions and abundances and to inform restoration and conservation efforts. Given the resurgence of natural history as the foundation for ecological knowledge and practice, it is important to recognize that natural history has a long history of racism that has impacted ecological thought and priorities. This history shapes not only who conducts ecological science but also foundational ecological concepts. For example, natural history's emphasis on pristine nature untouched by humans disregards or appropriates stewardship and knowledge of most of the world's population. Because of the legacy of chattel slavery, this exclusion is particularly strong for people of African descent. This exclusion narrows ecological inquiry, limits the capacity to find solutions to ecological problems, and risks interventions that perpetuate the relation between eugenics, ecological knowledge, and natural systems. If ecology is to become an inclusive, responsive, and resilient discipline, this knowledge gap must be addressed. We here present the colonial and racist underpinnings of natural history and offer strategies to expand inclusion in the study of nature. Natural history was steeped in racism, providing a hierarchy of cultures and a taxonomy of races. Complementing growing interest in traditional and Indigenous ecological knowledge, we focus on Black ecological knowledge, for example in the study of "maroon ecologies." Addressing the racist history of natural history is necessary for removing structural and racist barriers to diverse participation and expanding ecological knowledge bases in service of better and more just science.

Wild, tamed, and domesticated: Three fire macroregimes for global pyrogeography in the Anthropocene

Climate and natural vegetation dynamics are key drivers of global vegetation fire, but anthropogenic burning now prevails over vast areas of the planet. Fire regime classification and mapping may contribute towards improved understanding of relationships between those fire drivers. We used 15 years of daily active fire data from the MODIS fire product (MCD14ML, collection 6) to create global maps of six fire descriptors (incidence, size inequality, season length, interannual variability, intensity, and fire season modality). Using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical agglomerative clustering, we identified three fire macroregimes: Wild, Tamed, and Domesticated, each of which splitting into prototypical and transitional regimes. Interpretation of the six fire regimes in terms of their main drivers relied on the global maps of anthromes and Köppen climate types. The analysis yielded a two-dimensional space where the principal dimension of variability is primarily defined by interannual variability in fire activity and fire season length, and the secondary axis is based mainly on fire incidence. The Wild fire macroregime occurs mostly in cold wildlands, where burning is sporadic and fire seasons are short. Tamed fires predominate in seasonally dry tropical rangelands and croplands with high fire incidence. Domesticated fires are characteristic of humid, warm temperate and tropical croplands and villages with low fire incidence. The Tamed and Domesticated fire macroregimes, representing managed burning, account for 86% of all active fires in our dataset and for 70% of the global burnable area. Fourteen percent of active fires were found in the cold wildlands, and in the rangelands and forests of steppe and desert climates of the Wild macroregime. These results highlight the extent of human control over global pyrogeography in the Anthropocene.

Trace Elements in Beef Cattle: A Review of the Scientific Approach from One Health Perspective

The objective was to investigate the context, approach and research topics present in the papers that analysed trace elements in beef cattle to identify gaps and scientific perspectives for the sustainable management of trace elements in livestock. The main research groups came from the United States, Spain, Japan, Brazil, India and Slovakia, which represented 31% of the papers produced. Only 37% of studies addressed aspects that integrated animal, environmental and human health. The reviewed papers concerned 56 elements and 15 bovine tissues (Cu, Zn, Pb, liver, muscle and kidney highlighted). The main gaps were (1) lack of research in developing countries, (2) the need to understand the impact of different environmental issues and their relationship to the conditions in which animals are raised, and (3) the need to understand the role of many trace elements in animal nutrition and their relationship to environmental and human health. Finally, we highlight possible ways to expand knowledge and provide innovations for broad emerging issues, primarily through expanding collaborative research networks. In this context, we suggest the adoption of the One Health approach for planning further research on trace elements in livestock. Moreover, the One Health approach should also be considered for managers and politicians for a sustainable environmental care and food safety.

Emergent Intelligence in Smart Ecosystems: Conflicts Resolution by Reaching Consensus in Resource Management

A new emergent intelligence approach to the design of smart ecosystems, based on the complexity science principles, is introduced and discussed. The smart ecosystem for resource management is defined as a system of autonomous decision-making multi-agent systems capable to allocate resources, plan orders for resources, and to optimize, coordinate, monitor, and control the execution of plans in real time. The emergent intelligence enables software agents to collectively resolve conflicts arising in resource management decisions by reaching a consensus through a process of detecting conflicts and negotiation for finding trade-offs. The key feature of the proposed approach is the ontological model of the enterprise and the method of collective decision-making by software agents that compete or cooperate with each other on the virtual market of the digital ecosystem. Emergent intelligent systems do not require extensive training using a large quantity of data, like conventional artificial intelligence/machine learning systems. The developed model, method, and tool were applied for managing the resources of a factory workshop, a group of small satellites, and some other applications. A comparison of the developed and traditional tools is given. The new metric for measuring the adaptability of emergent intelligence is introduced. The performance of the new model and method are validated by constructing and evaluating large-scale resource management solutions for commercial clients. As demonstrated, the essential benefit is the high adaptability and efficiency of the resource management systems when operating under complex and dynamic market conditions.

Rate-induced collapse in evolutionary systems

Recent work has highlighted the possibility of 'rate-induced tipping', in which a system undergoes an abrupt transition when a perturbation exceeds a critical rate of change. Here, we argue that this is widely applicable to evolutionary systems: collapse, or extinction, may occur when external changes occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation to keep up. To bridge existing theoretical frameworks, we develop a minimal evolutionary-ecological model showing that rate-induced extinction and the established notion of 'evolutionary rescue' are fundamentally two sides of the same coin: the failure of one implies the other, and vice versa. We compare the minimal model's behaviour with that of a more complex model in which the large-scale dynamics emerge from the interactions of many individual agents; in both cases, there is a well-defined threshold rate to induce extinction, and a consistent scaling law for that rate as a function of timescale. Due to the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, we suggest that a vast range of evolutionary systems should in principle be susceptible to rate-induced collapse. This would include ecosystems on all scales as well as human societies; further research is warranted.

Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km² (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km² (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.

Proxyeconomics, a theory and model of proxy-based competition and cultural evolution

Competitive societal systems by necessity rely on imperfect proxy measures. For instance, profit is used to measure value to consumers, patient volumes to measure hospital performance, or the journal impact factor to measure scientific value. While there are numerous reasons why proxies will deviate from the underlying societal goals, they will nevertheless determine the selection of cultural practices and guide individual decisions. These considerations suggest that the study of proxy-based competition requires the integration of cultural evolution theory and economics or decision theory. Here, we attempt such an integration in two ways. First, we describe an agent-based simulation model, combining methods and insights from these disciplines. The model suggests that an individual intrinsic incentive can constrain a cultural evolutionary pressure, which would otherwise enforce fully proxy-oriented practices. The emergent outcome is distinct from that with either the isolated economic or evolutionary mechanism. It reflects what we term lock-in, where competitive pressure can undermine the ability of agents to pursue the shared social goal. Second, we elaborate the broader context, outlining the system-theoretic foundations as well as some philosophical and practical implications, towards a broader theory. Overall, we suggest such a theory may offer an explanatory and predictive framework for diverse subjects, ranging from scientific replicability to climate inaction, and outlining strategies for diagnosis and mitigation.

The abundance of yellow-legged gulls Larus michahellis breeding in the historic centre of Venice, Italy and the initial effects of the new waste collection policy on the population

The yellow-legged gull Larus michahellis has undergone widespread colonization of the urban environment in the recent past. The first urban breeding gulls were recorded in the historical centre of Venice, Italy, in 2000, and by 2005 there were already 24 roof-nesting pairs, with this number increasing significantly over the last decade. In 2016, a new door-to-door garbage collection system was introduced in Venice to prevent the accumulation of rubbish in the streets and limit the trophic resources available for the species. This study provides an up-to-date estimate of the Venice yellow-legged gull urban population using distance sampling method. We also studied the effect of the new waste collection system on the species by comparing the population estimate before (2017) and after (2018) the full implementation of this change and by analysing the trend of individuals collected in the old town by the wildlife recovery service during 2010–2018. Results estimated ca. 430 breeding pairs in June 2018 showing a 36% decrease with respect to 2017. We also found a decrease in the number of 1-year-old birds and pulli collected by the wildlife recovery service starting from 2016, when the policy implementation began. Our data did not show a significant decrease in the overall number of individuals, suggesting that the new policy has a stronger effect on the breeding success of the species than on adult survival. This study emphasizes the importance of preventing rubbish accumulation in the streets as factor for reducing the abundance of urban yellow-legged gulls.

Large tree mortality leads to major aboveground biomass decline in a tropical forest reserve

Humans are transforming the ecology of the Earth through rapid changes in land use and climate. These changes can affect tropical forest structure, dynamics and diversity. While numerous studies have focused on diversity metrics, other aspects of forest function, such as long-term biomass dynamics, are often less considered. We evaluated plant community structure change (i.e., abundance, diversity, composition, and aboveground biomass) in a 2.25 ha forest dynamics plot located within a ~ 365 ha reserve in southern Costa Rica. We censused, mapped and identified to species all plants ≥ 5 cm diameter at breast height (DBH) in three surveys spanning 2010-2020. While there were no changes in late-successional species diversity, there were marked changes in overall species composition and biomass. Abundance of large (≥ 40 cm DBH) old-growth dense-wooded trees (e.g., Lauraceae, Rosaceae) decreased dramatically (27%), leading to major biomass decline over time, possibly driven by recent and recurrent drought events. Gaps created by large trees were colonized by early-successional species, but these recruits did not make up for the biomass lost. Finally, stem abundance increased by 20%, driven by increasing dominance of Hampea appendiculata. While results suggest this reserve may effectively conserve overall plant diversity, this may mask other key shifts such as large aboveground biomass loss. If this pattern is pervasive across tropical forest reserves, it could hamper efforts to preserve forest structure and ecosystem services (e.g., carbon storage). Monitoring programs could better assess carbon trends in reserves over time simply by tracking large tree dynamics.

High-integrity human intervention in ecosystems: Tracking self-organization modes

Humans play major roles in shaping and transforming the ecology of Earth. Unlike natural drivers of ecosystem change, which are erratic and unpredictable, human intervention in ecosystems generally involves planning and management, but often results in detrimental outcomes. Using model studies and aerial-image analysis, we argue that the design of a successful human intervention form calls for the identification of the self-organization modes that drive ecosystem change, and for studying their dynamics. We demonstrate this approach with two examples: grazing management in drought-prone ecosystems, and rehabilitation of degraded vegetation by water harvesting. We show that grazing can increase the resilience to droughts, rather than imposing an additional stress, if managed in a spatially non-uniform manner, and that fragmental restoration along contour bunds is more resilient than the common practice of continuous restoration in vegetation stripes. We conclude by discussing the need for additional studies of self-organization modes and their dynamics.

Human intervention in ecosystems is motivated by various functional needs, such as provisioning ecosystem services, but often has unexpected detrimental outcomes. A major question in ecology is how to manage human intervention so as to achieve its goal without impairing ecosystem function. The main idea pursued here is the need to identify the inherent response ways of ecosystems to disturbances, and use them as road maps for conducting interventions. This approach is demonstrated mathematically using two contexts, grazing management and vegetation restoration, and compared to remote sensing data for the latter. Among the surprising insights obtained is the beneficial effect of grazing, in terms of resilience to droughts, that can be achieved by managing it non-uniformly in space.

Some reflections on current invasion science and perspectives for an exciting future

Species spreading beyond their native ranges are important study objects in ecology and environmental sciences and research on biological invasions is thriving. Along with an increase in the number of publications, the research field is experiencing an increase in the diversity of methods applied and questions asked. This development has facilitated an upsurge in information on invasions, but it also creates conceptual and practical challenges. To provide more transparency on which kind of research is actually done in the field, the distinction between invasion science, encompassing the full spectrum of studies on biological invasions and the sub-field of invasion biology, studying patterns and mechanisms of species invasions with a focus on biological research questions, can be useful. Although covering a smaller range of topics, invasion biology today still is the driving force in invasion science and we discuss challenges stemming from its embeddedness in the social context. Invasion biology consists of the building blocks ‘theory’, ‘case studies’ and ‘application’, where theory takes the form of conceptual frameworks, major hypotheses and statistical generalisations. Referencing recent work in philosophy of science, we argue that invasion biology, like other biological or ecological disciplines, does not rely on the development of an all-encompassing theory in order to be efficient. We suggest, however, that theory development is nonetheless necessary and propose improvements. Recent advances in data visualisation, machine learning and semantic modelling are providing opportunities for enhancing knowledge management and presentation and we suggest that invasion science should use these to transform its ways of publishing, archiving and visualising research. Along with a stronger focus on studies going beyond purely biological questions, this would facilitate the efficient prevention and management of biological invasions.

The current situation and potential effects of climate change on the microbial load of marine bivalves of the Greek coastlines: an integrative review

Global warming affects the aquatic ecosystems, accelerating pathogenic microorganisms' and toxic microalgae's growth and spread in marine habitats, and in bivalve molluscs. New parasite invasions are directly linked to oceanic warming. Consumption of pathogen-infected molluscs impacts human health at different rates, depending, inter alia, on the bacteria taxa. It is therefore necessary to monitor microbiological and chemical contamination of food. Many global cases of poisoning from bivalve consumption can be traced back to Mediterranean regions. This article aims to examine the marine bivalve's infestation rate within the scope of climate change, as well as to evaluate the risk posed by climate change to bivalve welfare and public health. Biological and climatic data literature review was performed from international scientific sources, Greek authorities and State organizations. Focusing on Greek aquaculture and bivalve fisheries, high-risk index pathogenic parasites and microalgae were observed during summer months, particularly in Thermaikos Gulf. Considering the climate models that predict further temperature increases, it seems that marine organisms will be subjected in the long term to higher temperatures. Due to the positive linkage between temperature and microbial load, the marine areas most affected by this phenomenon are characterized as 'high risk' for consumer health.

What is it about coral reefs? Translation of ecosystem goods and services relevant to people and their well-being

There is an astonishing diversity of ways in which people benefit from coral reefs. They provide recreation, resource extraction, inspirational, and educational opportunities, among many others as well as being valued just for their existence. As the condition of coral reef ecosystems decline, so do their ability to provide these benefits. Prudent management of coral reefs and the benefits they provide are important as some predict most coral reefs globally will be lost by the mid-21st century. Meanwhile, coral reef managers have limited tools and relevant data to design and implement effective environmental management practices that will enable coral reefs to provide benefits demanded by society. We demonstrate an approach to identify and measure environmental components of coral reefs that directly benefit human well-being. The approach views ecosystems through the lens of a specific set of beneficiaries and the biophysical features directly relevant to each. We call these biophysical features Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS). In our demonstration, we (1) identify a range of beneficiaries of coral reefs; (2) identify metrics of FEGS for those beneficiaries; and (3) describe how data quantifying those biophysical metrics might be used to facilitate greater economic and social understanding.

The emergence of land systems as the nexus for sustainability transformations : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Agriculture land use

This perspective recognizes the seminal Ambio articles of Sombroek et al. (1993), Turner et al. (1994) and Brussaard et al. (1997), identifying their individual and collective role in laying the ground work for a global change research agenda on land and its human use through increased understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics and global change, and furthering nascent interdisciplinary efforts within the global change science community to better understand the 'human driving forces' of change. From these efforts, land system science, as a systemic science focused on complex socio-ecological interactions around land use and associated trade-offs and synergies, emerges as an 'interdiscipline' challenged to better understand land systems as the 'meeting ground' for multiple claims on land for biodiversity, carbon, livelihoods, food production among others, and support pathways to sustainability for people and nature.

Archaeology and agriculture: plants, people, and past land-use

As a specialised branch of archaeology requiring specific field and laboratory methodologies, the contributions of archaeobotany have often been overlooked by the ecological research community. Developments in the fields of botany, chemistry, and ancient DNA analyses have greatly increased the potential for archaeobotany to contribute to topical questions relating to the Anthropocene and landscape transformations. We review the role of archaeobotany in identifying and describing past arable land use. Analytical techniques are illustrated with examples at both local and regional scales, demonstrating how archaeobotany can provide unique details of the wide array of past subsistence and land-use strategies. These data and their potential should be better recognised as important information that could underpin models seeking to evaluate or predict the effects of socioenvironmental interactions.

The Urban River Syndrome: Achieving Sustainability Against a Backdrop of Accelerating Change

Human activities have been affecting rivers and other natural systems for millennia. Anthropogenic changes to rivers over the last few centuries led to the accelerating state of decline of coastal and estuarine regions globally. Urban rivers are parts of larger catchment ecosystems, which in turn form parts of wider nested, interconnected systems. Accurate modelling of urban rivers may not be possible because of the complex multisystem interactions operating concurrently and over different spatial and temporal scales. This paper overviews urban river syndrome, the accelerating deterioration of urban river ecology, and outlines growing conservation challenges of river restoration projects. This paper also reviews the river Thames, which is a typical urban river that suffers from growing anthropogenic effects and thus represents all urban rivers of similar type. A particular emphasis is made on ecosystem adaptation, widespread extinctions and the proliferation of non-native species in the urban Thames. This research emphasizes the need for a holistic systems approach to urban river restoration.

A Framework for the Eltonian Niche of Humans

Recent research has highlighted several influential roles that humans play in ecosystems, including that of a superpredator, hyperkeystone species, and niche constructor. This work has begun to describe the Eltonian niche of humans, which encompasses humanity's cumulative ecological and evolutionary roles in trophic systems. However, we lack a unifying framework that brings together these strands of research, links them to ecoevolutionary and sociocultural theory, and identifies current research needs. In this article, we present such a framework in hope of facilitating a more holistic approach to operationalizing human roles in trophic systems across an increasingly anthropogenic biosphere. The framework underscores how humans play numerous nuanced roles in trophic systems, from top-down to bottom-up, that entail not only pernicious effects but also benefits for many nonhuman species. Such a nuanced view of the Eltonian niche of humans is important for understanding complex social–ecological system functioning and enacting effective policies and conservation measures.

People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years

The current biodiversity crisis is often depicted as a struggle to preserve untouched habitats. Here, we combine global maps of human populations and land use over the past 12,000 y with current biodiversity data to show that nearly three quarters of terrestrial nature has long been shaped by diverse histories of human habitation and use by Indigenous and traditional peoples. With rare exceptions, current biodiversity losses are caused not by human conversion or degradation of untouched ecosystems, but rather by the appropriation, colonization, and intensification of use in lands inhabited and used by prior societies. Global land use history confirms that empowering the environmental stewardship of Indigenous peoples and local communities will be critical to conserving biodiversity across the planet.

Archaeological and paleoecological evidence shows that by 10,000 BCE, all human societies employed varying degrees of ecologically transformative land use practices, including burning, hunting, species propagation, domestication, cultivation, and others that have left long-term legacies across the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, a lingering paradigm among natural scientists, conservationists, and policymakers is that human transformation of terrestrial nature is mostly recent and inherently destructive. Here, we use the most up-to-date, spatially explicit global reconstruction of historical human populations and land use to show that this paradigm is likely wrong. Even 12,000 y ago, nearly three quarters of Earth’s land was inhabited and therefore shaped by human societies, including more than 95% of temperate and 90% of tropical woodlands. Lands now characterized as “natural,” “intact,” and “wild” generally exhibit long histories of use, as do protected areas and Indigenous lands, and current global patterns of vertebrate species richness and key biodiversity areas are more strongly associated with past patterns of land use than with present ones in regional landscapes now characterized as natural. The current biodiversity crisis can seldom be explained by the loss of uninhabited wildlands, resulting instead from the appropriation, colonization, and intensifying use of the biodiverse cultural landscapes long shaped and sustained by prior societies. Recognizing this deep cultural connection with biodiversity will therefore be essential to resolve the crisis.

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

M. Groenen M, Madsen O. Genetic consequences of long-term small effective population size in the critically endangered pygmy hog

Increasing human disturbance and climate change have a major impact on habitat integrity and size, with far-reaching consequences for wild fauna and flora. Specifically, population decline and habitat fragmentation result in small, isolated populations. To what extend different endangered species can cope with small population size is still largely unknown. Studies on the genomic landscape of these species can shed light on past demographic dynamics and current genetic load, thereby also providing guidance for conservation programs. The pygmy hog (Porcula salvania) is the smallest and rarest wild pig in the world, with current estimation of only a few hundred living in the wild. Here, we analyzed whole-genome sequencing data of six pygmy hogs, three from the wild and three from a captive population, along with 30 pigs representing six other Suidae. First, we show that the pygmy hog had a very small population size with low genetic diversity over the course of the past ~1 million years. One indication of historical small effective population size is the absence of mitochondrial variation in the six sequenced individuals. Second, we evaluated the impact of historical demography. Runs of homozygosity (ROH) analysis suggests that the pygmy hog population has gone through past but not recent inbreeding. Also, the long-term, extremely small population size may have led to the accumulation of harmful mutations suggesting that the accumulation of deleterious mutations is exceeding purifying selection in this species. Thus, care has to be taken in the conservation program to avoid or minimize the potential for further inbreeding depression, and guard against environmental changes in the future.

Ecosystem engineering in the Quaternary of the West Coast of South Africa

Despite advances in our understanding of the geographic and temporal scope of the Paleolithic record, we know remarkably little about the evolutionary and ecological consequences of changes in human behavior. Recent inquiries suggest that human evolution reflects a long history of interconnections between the behavior of humans and their surrounding ecosystems (e.g., niche construction). Developing expectations to identify such phenomena is remarkably difficult because it requires understanding the multi-generational impacts of changes in behavior. These long-term dynamics require insights into the emergent phenomena that alter selective pressures over longer time periods which are not possible to observe, and are also not intuitive based on observations derived from ethnographic time scales. Generative models show promise for probing these potentially unexpected consequences of human-environment interaction. Changes in the uses of landscapes may have long term implications for the environments that hominins occupied. We explore other potential proxies of behavior and examine how modeling may provide expectations for a variety of phenomena.