Rabies in translocated raccoons

Evaluation of contingency actions to control the spread of raccoon rabies in Ohio and Virginia

The raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant of the rabies virus (RRV) is enzootic in the eastern United States and oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is the primary strategy to prevent and control landscape spread. Breaches of ORV management zones occasionally occur, and emergency "contingency" actions may be implemented to enhance local control. Contingency actions are an integral part of landscape-scale wildlife rabies management but can be very costly and routinely involve enhanced rabies surveillance (ERS) around the index case. We investigated two contingency actions in Ohio (2017-2019 and 2018-2021) and one in Virginia (2017-2019) using a dynamic, multi-method occupancy approach to examine relationships between specific management actions and RRV occurrence, including whether ERS was sufficient around the index case. The RRV occupancy was assessed seasonally at 100-km2 grids and we examined relationships across three spatial scales (regional management zone, RRV free regions, and local contingency areas). The location of a grid relative to the ORV management zone was the strongest predictor of RRV occupancy at the regional scale. In RRV free regions, the neighbor effect and temporal variability were most important in influencing RRV occupancy. Parenteral (hand) vaccination of raccoons was important across all three contingency action areas, but more influential in the Ohio contingency action areas where more raccoons were hand vaccinated. In the Virginia contingency action area, ORV strategies were as important in reducing RRV occupancy as a hand vaccination strategy. The management action to trap, euthanize, and test (TET) raccoons was an important method to increase ERS, yet the impacts of TET on RRV occupancy are not clear. The probability of detecting additional cases of RRV was exceptionally high (>0.95) during the season the index case occurred. The probability of detecting RRV through ERS declined in the seasons following initial TET efforts but remained higher after the contingency action compared to the ERS detection probabilities prior to index case incidence. Local RRV cases were contained within one year and eliminated within 2-3 years of each contingency action.

Are rabid raccoons (Procyon lotor) ready for the rapture? Determining the geographic origin of rabies virus-infected raccoons using RADcapture and microhaplotypes

North America is recognized for the exceptional richness of rabies virus (RV) wildlife reservoir species. Management of RV is accomplished through vaccination targeting mesocarnivore reservoir populations, such as the raccoon (Procyon lotor) in Eastern North America. Raccoons are a common generalist species, and populations may reach high densities in developed areas, which can result in contact with humans and pets with potential exposures to the raccoon variant of RV throughout the eastern United States. Understanding the spatial movement of RV by raccoon populations is important for monitoring and refining strategies supporting the landscape-level control and local elimination of this lethal zoonosis. We developed a high-throughput genotyping panel for raccoons based on hundreds of microhaplotypes to identify population structure and genetic diversity relevant to rabies management programs. Throughout the eastern United States, we identified hierarchical population genetic structure with clusters that were connected through isolation-by-distance. We also illustrate that this genotyping approach can be used to support real-time management priorities by identifying the geographic origin of a rabid raccoon that was collected in an area of the United States that had been raccoon RV-free for 8 years. The results from this study and the utility of the microhaplotype panel and genotyping method will provide managers with information on raccoon ecology that can be incorporated into future management decisions.

Spatial ecology of translocated raccoons

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are routinely translocated both legally and illegally to mitigate conflicts with humans, which has contributed to the spread of rabies virus across eastern North America. The movement behavior of translocated raccoons has important ramifications for disease transmission yet remains understudied and poorly quantified. To examine the spatial ecology of raccoons following experimental translocation, we performed reciprocal 16 km-distance translocations of 30 raccoons between habitats of high and low raccoon density (bottomland hardwood and upland pine, respectively) across the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina, USA (2018-2019). Translocation influenced patterns of raccoon space use, with translocated animals exhibiting a 13-fold increase in 95% utilization distributions (UDs) post- compared to pre-translocation (mean 95% UD 35.8 ± 36.1 km² vs 1.96 ± 1.17 km²). Raccoons originating from upland pine habitats consistently had greater space use and larger nightly movement distances post-translocation compared to raccoons moved from bottomland hardwood habitats, whereas these differences were generally not observed prior to translocation. Estimated home ranges of male raccoons were twice the area as estimated for female raccoons, on average, and this pattern was not affected by translocation. After a transient period lasting on average 36.5 days (SD = 30.0, range = 3.25-92.8), raccoons often resumed pre-experiment movement behavior, with 95% UD sizes not different from those prior to translocation (mean = 2.27 ± 1.63km²). Most animals established new home ranges after translocation, whereas three raccoons moved > 16 km from their release point back to the original capture location. Four animals crossed a 100-m wide river within the SRS post-translocation, but this behavior was not documented among collared raccoons prior to translocation. Large increases in space use combined with the crossing of geographic barriers such as rivers may lead to elevated contact rates with conspecifics, which can heighten disease transmission risks following translocation. These results provide additional insights regarding the potential impacts of raccoon translocation towards population level risks of rabies outbreaks and underscore the need to discourage mesocarnivore translocations to prevent further spread of wildlife rabies.

PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF BAYLISASCARIS PROCYONIS (RACCOON ROUNDWORM) IN NORTH AMERICA

Sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase 1 (COI) gene of 115 Baylisascaris procyonis individuals from 13 U.S. states and 1 Canadian province were obtained from 44 raccoon hosts to assess genetic variation and geographic structure. The maximum genetic distance between individuals was low (1.6%), consistent with a single species. Moderate COI haplotype (h = 0.60) and nucleotide (π = 0.0053) diversity were found overall. Low haplotype diversity was found among samples east of the Mississippi River (h = 0.036), suggesting that historical growth and expansion of raccoon populations in this region could be responsible for high parasite gene flow or a selective sweep of B. procyonis mtDNA. There was low genetic structure (average Φst = 0.07) for samples east of the continental divide, but samples from Colorado showed higher diversity and differentiation from midwestern and eastern samples. There was marked genetic structure between samples from east and west of the continental divide, with no haplotypes shared between these regions. There was no significant isolation by distance among any of these geographic samples. The phylogeographic patterns for B. procyonis are similar to genetic results reported for their raccoon definitive hosts. The phylogeographic divergence of B. procyonis from east and west of the continental divide may involve vicariance resulting from Pleistocene glaciation and associated climate variation.

Serological Responses of Raccoons and Striped Skunks to Ontario Rabies Vaccine Bait in West Virginia during 2012-2016

Since the 1990s, oral rabies vaccination (ORV) has been used successfully to halt the westward spread of the raccoon rabies virus (RV) variant from the eastern continental USA. Elimination of raccoon RV from the eastern USA has proven challenging across targeted raccoon (Procyon lotor) and striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) populations impacted by raccoon RV. Field trial evaluations of the Ontario Rabies Vaccine Bait (ONRAB) were initiated to expand ORV products available to meet the rabies management goal of raccoon RV elimination. This study describes the continuation of a 2011 trial in West Virginia. Our objective was to evaluate raccoon and skunk response to ORV occurring in West Virginia for an additional two years (2012–2013) at 75 baits/km² followed by three years (2014–2016) of evaluation at 300 baits/km². We measured the change in rabies virus-neutralizing antibody (RVNA) seroprevalence in targeted wildlife populations by comparing levels pre- and post-ORV during each year of study. The increase in bait density from 75/km² to 300/km² corresponded to an increase in average post-ORV seroprevalence for raccoon and skunk populations. Raccoon population RVNA levels increased from 53% (300/565, 95% CI: 50–57%) to 82.0% (596/727, 95% CI: 79–85%) during this study, and skunk population RVNA levels increased from 11% (8/72, 95% CI: 6–20%) to 39% (51/130, 95% CI: 31–48%). The RVNA seroprevalence pre-ORV demonstrated an increasing trend across study years for both bait densities and species, indicating that multiple years of ORV may be necessary to achieve and maintain RVNA seroprevalence in target wildlife populations for the control and elimination of raccoon RV in the eastern USA.

Infection spreading and recovery in a square lattice

We investigate spreading and recovery of disease in a square lattice, and, in particular, emphasize the role of the initial distribution of infected patches in the network on the progression of an endemic and initiation of a recovery process, if any, due to migration of both the susceptible and infected hosts. The disease starts in the lattice with three possible initial distribution patterns of infected and infection-free sites, viz., infected core patches (ICP), infected peripheral patches (IPP), and randomly distributed infected patches (RDIP). Our results show that infection spreads monotonically in the lattice with increasing migration without showing any sign of recovery in the ICP case. In the IPP case, it follows a similar monotonic progression with increasing migration; however, a self-organized healing process starts for higher migration, leading the lattice to full recovery at a critical rate of migration. Encouragingly, for the initial RDIP arrangement, chances of recovery are much higher with a lower rate of critical migration. An eigenvalue-based semianalytical study is made to determine the critical migration rate for realizing a stable infection-free lattice. The initial fraction of infected patches and the force of infection play significant roles in the self-organized recovery. They follow an exponential law, for the RDIP case, that governs the recovery process. For the frustrating case of ICP arrangement, we propose a random rewiring of links in the lattice allowing long-distance migratory paths that effectively initiate a recovery process. Global prevalence of infection thereby declines and progressively improves with the rewiring probability that follows a power law with the critical migration and leads to the birth of emergent infection-free networks.

Evaluation of rabies virus characterization to enhance early detection of important rabies epizootic events in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate rabies virus (RABV) characterization data obtained from animal specimens submitted to the US public health rabies surveillance system and propose a standardized approach to sample selection for RABV characterization that could enhance early detection of important rabies epizootic events in the United States.

SAMPLE

United States public health rabies surveillance system data collected from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2015.

PROCEDURES

Data were reviewed to identify RABV-positive specimens for which virus characterization would likely provide information regarding any of 4 overarching events (discovery of novel variants, translocation of RABV variants, host-shift events, and any unusual rabies-related event) that could substantially alter animal rabies epizootiology in the United States. These specimens were designated as specimens of epizootiological importance (SEIs). Estimates of the additional number of specimens that public health laboratories could expect to process each year if all SEIs underwent RABV characterization were calculated.

RESULTS

During the 6-year period, the mean annual number of SEIs was 855 (95% CI, 739 to 971); the mean number of SEIs that underwent virus characterization was 270 (95% CI, 187 to 353). Virus characterization of all SEIs would be expected to increase the public health laboratories' test load by approximately 585 (95% CI, 543 to 625) specimens/y.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Prioritization of RABV characterization of SEIs may improve early detection of rabies events associated with RABV host shifts, variant translocations, and importation. Characterization of SEIs may help refine wildlife rabies management practices. Each public health laboratory should evaluate testing of SEIs to ensure diagnostic laboratory capacity is not overstretched.

Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa

Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring cities may behave as the source of these re-introductions. To evaluate this hypothesis, we introduce a spatially explicit metapopulation model for rabies diffusion in Central African Republic. Calibrated on epidemiological data for the capital city, Bangui, the model predicts that long-range movements are essential for continuous re-introductions of rabies-exposed dogs across settlements, eased by the large fluctuations of the incubation period. Bangui's neighborhood, instead, would not be enough to self-sustain the epidemic, contrary to previous expectations. Our findings suggest that restricting long-range travels may be very efficient in limiting rabies persistence in a large and fragmented dog population. Our framework can be applied to other geographical contexts where dog rabies is endemic.

Vital Signs: Trends in Human Rabies Deaths and Exposures - United States, 1938-2018

Introduction

Each year, rabies causes approximately 59,000 deaths worldwide, including approximately two deaths in the United States. Before 1960, dogs were a common reservoir of rabies in the United States; however, increasingly, species of wildlife (e.g., bats, raccoons) are the main reservoirs. This report characterizes human rabies deaths, summarizes trends in rabies mortality, and highlights current rabies risks in the United States.

Methods

Rabies trends in the United States during 1938–2018 were analyzed using national rabies surveillance data. Data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project for 2006–2014 were used to estimate the number of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) visits per 100,000 persons during 2017–2018. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ average sales price data were used to estimate PEP costs.

Results

From 1960 to 2018, a total of 125 human rabies cases were reported in the United States; 36 (28%) were attributed to dog bites during international travel. Among the 89 infections acquired in the United States, 62 (70%) were attributed to bats. In 2018, approximately 55,000 persons sought PEP after contact with a potentially rabid animal.

Conclusions and Comments

In the United States, wildlife rabies, especially in bats, continues to pose a risk to humans. Travelers also might be exposed to canine rabies in countries where the disease is still present; increased awareness of rabies while traveling abroad is needed. Vaccinating pets, avoiding contact with wildlife, and seeking medical care if one is bitten or scratched by an animal are the most effective ways to prevent rabies. Understanding the need for timely administration of PEP to prevent death is critical.

EFFECT OF HIGH-DENSITY ORAL RABIES VACCINE BAITING ON RABIES VIRUS NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODY RESPONSE IN RACCOONS ( PROCYON LOTOR)

From 2014 to 2016, we examined the effect of distributing oral rabies vaccine baits at high density (150 baits/km²) in an area of Virginia, US that was naïve to oral rabies vaccination prior to the study. We also compared the effect of baiting at high density in a naïve area to baiting at standard density (75 baits/km²) in an area that had been baited annually for 12 yr. Our results suggested that rabies virus seroconversion in raccoons ( Procyon lotor) gradually increased each year under the highdensity bait treatment. However, we did not detect a difference in seroconversion between bait density treatments. Virginia opossums ( Didelphis virginiana) were abundant in the study area and were a potentially important nontarget species that competed for oral rabies vaccine baits, but the ratio of opossums to raccoons in this study did not affect rabies virus neutralizing antibody response of the raccoon populations.

Raccoon (Procyon lotor) biomarker and rabies antibody response to varying oral rabies vaccine bait densities in northwestern Pennsylvania

Distribution of oral rabies vaccine baits has been used as a strategy for managing rabies in the United States since the 1990s. Since that time, efforts have been made to improve baiting strategies with a focus on bait density to maximize both efficiency and cost effectiveness. An optimal rabies management strategy includes a vaccine bait preferred by the target species that is distributed at the minimal density needed to achieve population immunity to prevent rabies spread. The purpose of our pilot study was to examine the effect of 75, 150, and 300 baits/km2 vaccine bait densities on rabies virus neutralizing antibody (RVNA) seroprevalence in raccoons (Procyon lotor). Raboral V-RG® fishmeal polymer baits (Merial Inc. (now a part of Boehringer Ingelheim), Athens, Georgia) contain a tetracycline biomarker that was used to estimate bait consumption as another measure of intervention impact. Our results suggest that raccoon RVNA response increases as bait density increases, but the effect may not be sufficient to justify the cost except in the case of contingency actions or an epizootic. Non-target species, especially opossums (Didelphis virginianus) in certain areas, should be considered when determining an appropriate bait density to ensure sufficient baits are available for consumption by the target species.

EVALUATION OF ORAL RABIES VACCINATION: PROTECTION AGAINST RABIES IN WILD CAUGHT RACCOONS ( PROCYON LOTOR)

Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is an effective tactic for wildlife rabies control, particularly for containment of disease spread along epizootic fronts. As part of the continuing evaluation of the ORV program in free-ranging raccoons ( Procyon lotor) in the US, 37 raccoons from ORV-baited areas in Pennsylvania were live-trapped and transferred to captivity to evaluate protection against rabies in animals with varying levels of existing neutralizing antibodies, expressed in international units per milliliter (IU/mL). Among the 37 raccoons at the date of capture, 24% (9/37) of raccoons were seronegative (<0.05 IU/mL), 22% (8/37) were low positive (≥0.05-0.11 IU/mL), 27% (10/37) were medium positive (>0.11-<0.5 IU/mL), and 27% (10/37) were high positive (≥0.5 IU/mL). Raccoons were held for 86-199 d between the date of capture and rabies virus challenge. At challenge, 68% (25/37) raccoons were seronegative. The overall survival rate among challenged animals was 46% (17/37). Based on the antibody titers at the time of challenge, survivorship was 24% (6/25) among seronegative animals, 100% (4/4) among low positive animals, 83% (5/6) among medium positive animals, and 100% (2/2) among high positive animals. Evidence of high-titer seroconversion after vaccination is a good surrogate indicator of rabies survival; however, survival rates of approximately 45% (15/35) were found among raccoons with detectable titers below 0.5 IU/mL. In contrast, any detectable titer at the time of challenge (>3 mo after vaccination) appeared to be a surrogate indicator of survival. Overall, we illustrated significant differences in the value of specific titers as surrogates for survival based on the timing of measurement relative to vaccination. However, survivorship was generally greater than 45% among animals with any detectable titer regardless of the timing of measurement. These findings suggest that lower titer cutoffs may represent a valid approach to measuring immunization coverage within ORV management zones, balancing both sensitivity and specificity for estimating herd immunity.

FIELD TRIALS OF ONTARIO RABIES VACCINE BAIT IN THE NORTHEASTERN USA, 2012-14

In the US, rabies virus (RV) has been enzootic in raccoons ( Procyon lotor) since the late 1940s. Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) was implemented in the 1990s to halt the spread of raccoon RV and continues to be used as a wildlife management tool. Our objective was to evaluate a recombinant human adenovirus-rabies virus glycoprotein vaccine in northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire over a 3-yr period, using changes in RV neutralizing antibody (RVNA) seroprevalence in raccoon populations as an immunologic index of ORV impact. Vaccine baits were distributed at 75 baits/km² and 750-m flight-line spacing in the study area. Animal sampling occurred during 10-d intervals pre- and post-ORV during 2012-14 within eight study cells: four northern cells had a history of ORV with a different vaccine for 3 or more years prior and four southern cells were ORV naive. Baseline raccoon RVNA seroprevalence was 27.3% ( n=1,079, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.8-30.1) before ORV in 2012. Raccoon RVNA seroprevalence averaged 68.5% ( n=1,551, 95% CI: 66.2-70.8) post-ORV during the 3-yr study. The RVNA seroprevalence levels in this study were considered to be adequate for stopping raccoon RV transmission and supported and expanded the results from a West Virginia field trial, as well as earlier evaluations along the Canada-US border.

Processes Underlying Rabies Virus Incursions across US-Canada Border as Revealed by Whole-Genome Phylogeography

Disease control programs aim to constrain and reduce the spread of infection. Human disease interventions such as wildlife vaccination play a major role in determining the limits of a pathogen’s spatial distribution. Over the past few decades, a raccoon-specific variant of rabies virus (RRV) has invaded large areas of eastern North America. Although expansion into Canada has been largely prevented through vaccination along the US border, several outbreaks have occurred in Canada. Applying phylogeographic approaches to 289 RRV whole-genome sequences derived from isolates collected in Canada and adjacent US states, we examined the processes underlying these outbreaks. RRV incursions were attributable predominantly to systematic virus leakage of local strains across areas along the border where vaccination has been conducted but also to single stochastic events such as long-distance translocations. These results demonstrate the utility of phylogeographic analysis of pathogen genomes for understanding transboundary outbreaks.

Longitudinal analysis of raccoon rabies in West Virginia, 2000-2015: a preliminary investigation

Animal borne rabies virus is a source of infection in humans, and raccoons (Procyon lotor) are the primary terrestrial reservoir in West Virginia (WV). To assess the behavior and status of raccoon variant rabies virus (RRV) cases in WV, a longitudinal analysis for the period 2000–2015 was performed, using data provided by the state Bureau of Public Health. The analytic approach used was negative binomial regression, with exclusion of those counties that had not experienced RRV cases in the study period, and with further examination of those counties where oral rabies vaccine (ORV) baits had been distributed as compared with non-ORV counties. These analyses indicated that there had been a reduction in numbers of RRV positive animals over the study period, predominantly due to a decrease in raccoon infections. Non-raccoon hosts did not appear to have a similar decline, however. The rates of decline for the ORV zone were found to be significantly greater as compared to the non-ORV area. The study was limited by the lack of data for season or point location of animal collection, and by lack of surveillance effort data. Even so, this study has implications for the preventive measures currently being implemented, including expanded vaccination effort in domestic animals. Spatial analyses of RRV and further examination of the virus in non-raccoon hosts are warranted.

The spread and evolution of rabies virus: conquering new frontiers

Rabies is a lethal zoonotic disease that is caused by lyssaviruses, most often rabies virus. Despite control efforts, sporadic outbreaks in wildlife populations are largely unpredictable, underscoring our incomplete knowledge of what governs viral transmission and spread in reservoir hosts. Furthermore, the evolutionary history of rabies virus and related lyssaviruses remains largely unclear. Robust surveillance efforts combined with diagnostics and disease modelling are now providing insights into the epidemiology and evolution of rabies virus. The immune status of the host, the nature of exposure and strain differences all clearly influence infection and transmission dynamics. In this Review, we focus on rabies virus infections in the wildlife and synthesize current knowledge in the rapidly advancing fields of rabies virus epidemiology and evolution, and advocate for multidisciplinary approaches to advance our understanding of this disease.

Introduction and Establishment of Raccoon Rabies on Islands: Jekyll Island, Georgia, USA as a Case Study

The introduction of rabies virus (RABV) to barrier islands, which are often popular tourist destinations with resource-rich habitats and connectivity and proximity to the mainland, is especially concerning because it can easily become endemic due to factors like dense rabies-vector populations (e.g., raccoons [ Procyon lotor]), high inter- and intraspecies contact rates, and anthropogenic activities such as supplemental feeding of feral cats ( Felis catus). In January 2013, a neurologic raccoon found on the Jekyll Island (JI), Georgia, US causeway tested positive for rabies. Mortality investigations of 29 raccoons have been conducted between December 2012-May 2017. The two most common diagnoses were RABV ( n=11) and canine distemper virus (CDV; n=8). Parvoviral enteritis was diagnosed in four raccoons but no coinfections were diagnosed. There was no apparent seasonality for rabies cases, but all CDV cases occurred in spring-fall. Most (64%) rabies submissions came from residential or recreational use areas located near feral cat feeding stations. Jekyll Island is a popular destination where tourists engage in numerous outdoor activities which facilitate human-wildlife interactions. Concerns regarding public and animal health highlight the importance of rabies surveillance, prevention, and control on islands. This is the first report of rabies on JI and emphasizes the importance of disease investigations because the assumption that neurologic raccoons have CDV, an endemic pathogen, can miss the establishment of novel pathogens such as RABV.

Oral vaccination of wildlife using a vaccinia-rabies-glycoprotein recombinant virus vaccine (RABORAL V-RG®): a global review

RABORAL V-RG® is an oral rabies vaccine bait that contains an attenuated ("modified-live") recombinant vaccinia virus vector vaccine expressing the rabies virus glycoprotein gene (V-RG). Approximately 250 million doses have been distributed globally since 1987 without any reports of adverse reactions in wildlife or domestic animals since the first licensed recombinant oral rabies vaccine (ORV) was released into the environment to immunize wildlife populations against rabies. V-RG is genetically stable, is not detected in the oral cavity beyond 48 h after ingestion, is not shed by vaccinates into the environment, and has been tested for thermostability under a range of laboratory and field conditions. Safety of V-RG has been evaluated in over 50 vertebrate species, including non-human primates, with no adverse effects observed regardless of route or dose. Immunogenicity and efficacy have been demonstrated under laboratory and field conditions in multiple target species (including fox, raccoon, coyote, skunk, raccoon dog, and jackal). The liquid vaccine is packaged inside edible baits (i.e., RABORAL V-RG, the vaccine-bait product) which are distributed into wildlife habitats for consumption by target species. Field application of RABORAL V-RG has contributed to the elimination of wildlife rabies from three European countries (Belgium, France and Luxembourg) and of the dog/coyote rabies virus variant from the United States of America (USA). An oral rabies vaccination program in west-central Texas has essentially eliminated the gray fox rabies virus variant from Texas with the last case reported in a cow during 2009. A long-term ORV barrier program in the USA using RABORAL V-RG is preventing substantial geographic expansion of the raccoon rabies virus variant. RABORAL V-RG has also been used to control wildlife rabies in Israel for more than a decade. This paper: (1) reviews the development and historical use of RABORAL V-RG; (2) highlights wildlife rabies control programs using the vaccine in multiple species and countries; and (3) discusses current and future challenges faced by programs seeking to control or eliminate wildlife rabies.

Management and modeling approaches for controlling raccoon rabies: The road to elimination

Rabies is an ancient viral disease that significantly impacts human and animal health throughout the world. In the developing parts of the world, dog bites represent the highest risk of rabies infection to people, livestock, and other animals. However, in North America, where several rabies virus variants currently circulate in wildlife, human contact with the raccoon rabies variant leads to the highest per capita population administration of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) annually. Previous rabies variant elimination in raccoons (Canada), foxes (Europe), and dogs and coyotes (United States) demonstrates that elimination of the raccoon variant from the eastern US is feasible, given an understanding of rabies control costs and benefits and the availability of proper tools. Also critical is a cooperatively produced strategic plan that emphasizes collaborative rabies management among agencies and organizations at the landscape scale. Common management strategies, alone or as part of an integrated approach, include the following: oral rabies vaccination (ORV), trap-vaccinate-release (TVR), and local population reduction. As a complement, mathematical and statistical modeling approaches can guide intervention planning, such as through contact networks, circuit theory, individual-based modeling, and others, which can be used to better understand and predict rabies dynamics through simulated interactions among the host, virus, environment, and control strategy. Strategies derived from this ecological lens can then be optimized to produce a management plan that balances the ecological needs and program financial resources. This paper discusses the management and modeling strategies that are currently used, or have been used in the past, and provides a platform of options for consideration while developing raccoon rabies virus elimination strategies in the US.

Right place, wrong species: a 20-year review of rabies virus cross species transmission among terrestrial mammals in the United States

INTRODUCTION

In the continental US, four terrestrial mammalian species are reservoirs for seven antigenic rabies virus variants. Cross species transmission (CST) occurs when a rabies virus variant causes disease in non-reservoir species.

METHODS

This study analyzed national surveillance data for rabies in terrestrial mammals. The CST rate was defined as: number of rabid non-reservoir animals/number of rabid reservoir animals. CST rates were analyzed for trend. Clusters of high CST rate counties were evaluated using space-time scanning statistics.

RESULTS

The number of counties reporting a raccoon variant CST rate >1.0 increased from 75 in 1992 to 187 in 2011; counties with skunk variant CST rates >1.0 remained unchanged during the same period. As of 2011, for every rabid raccoon reported within the raccoon variant region, there were 0.73 cases of this variant reported in non-reservoir animals. Skunks were the most common non-reservoir animal reported with the raccoon rabies variant. Domestic animals were the most common non-reservoir animal diagnosed with a skunk rabies virus variant (n = 1,601). Cross species transmission rates increased fastest among domestic animals.

CONCLUSIONS

Cross species transmission of rabies virus variants into non-reservoir animals increases the risk of human exposures and threatens current advances toward rabies control. Cross species transmission in raccoon rabies enzootic regions increased dramatically during the study period. Pet owners should vaccinate their dogs and cats to ensure against CST, particularly in regions with active foci of rabies circulation. Clusters of high CST activity represent areas for further study to better understand interspecies disease transmission dynamics. Each CST event has the potential to result in a rabies virus adapted for sustained transmission in a new species; therefore further understanding of the dynamics of CST may help in early detection or prevention of the emergence of new terrestrial rabies virus variants.

Home range, body condition, and survival of rehabilitated raccoons (Procyon lotor) during their first winter

The effects of raccoon (Procyon lotor) rehabilitation on postrelease survivorship are unknown. Raccoon rehabilitation success was measured as differences in prewinter body condition, home range size, distance to manmade structures, and during-winter survival between raccoons in the wild and those who have been rehabilitated. Prewinter body condition did not differ between wild and rehabilitated raccoons, but there was a trend for rehabilitated raccoons to have better body conditions. There was no difference between wild and rehabilitated raccoon adaptive kernel (AK) home range for 95% and 90% AK home ranges, or for core (50% AK) use areas. There was no sex difference in distance traveled from the release site within rehabilitated raccoons. However, rehabilitated raccoons were found significantly closer (49.4 ± 4.7 m) to manmade structures than wild raccoons (92.2 ± 14.4 m), and female raccoons were found significantly closer (64.8 ± 4.5 m) to manmade structures than male raccoons (72.3 ± 17.6 m). The results of this study indicate that raccoons can be successfully rehabilitated, but they may occupy habitat closer to manmade structures than wild raccoons.

Spatial patterns of neutral and functional genetic variations reveal patterns of local adaptation in raccoon (Procyon lotor) populations exposed to raccoon rabies

Local adaptation is necessary for population survival and depends on the interplay between responses to selective forces and demographic processes that introduce or retain adaptive and maladaptive attributes. Host-parasite systems are dynamic, varying in space and time, where both host and parasites must adapt to their ever-changing environment in order to survive. We investigated patterns of local adaptation in raccoon populations with varying temporal exposure to the raccoon rabies virus (RRV). RRV infects approximately 85% of the population when epizootic and has been presumed to be completely lethal once contracted; however, disease challenge experiments and varying spatial patterns of RRV spread suggest some level of immunity may exist. We first assessed patterns of local adaptation in raccoon populations along the eastern seaboard of North America by contrasting spatial patterns of neutral (microsatellite loci) and functional, major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genetic diversity and structure. We explored variation of MHC allele frequencies in the light of temporal population exposure to RRV (0-60 years) and specific RRV strains in infected raccoons. Our results revealed high levels of MHC variation (66 DRB exon 2 alleles) and pronounced genetic structure relative to neutral microsatellite loci, indicative of local adaptation. We found a positive association linking MHC genetic diversity and temporal RRV exposure, but no association with susceptibility and resistance to RRV strains. These results have implications for landscape epidemiology studies seeking to predict the spread of RRV and present an example of how population demographics influence the degree to which populations adapt to local selective pressures.

Costs of raccoon rabies incidents in cattle herds in Hampshire County, West Virginia, and Guernsey County, Ohio

OBJECTIVE

To determine direct and indirect costs associated with raccoon rabies incidents involving cattle herds in Hampshire County, WV, in 2008 and Guernsey County, Ohio, in 2010.

DESIGN

Ex post cost analysis.

ANIMALS

1 cattle herd in Hampshire County, WV, in 2008 and 1 cattle herd in Guernsey County, Ohio, in 2010.

PROCEDURES

Data were collected for each incident through telephone and email interviews with 16 federal, state, and county agency personnel involved in the case investigations and coordinated responses for rabies in the cattle herds. To characterize the economic impact associated with rabies in the 2 cattle herds, cost analysis was conducted with 7 cost variables (salary and benefits for personnel involved in the response, human postexposure prophylaxis, indirect patient costs, rabies diagnostic testing, cattle carcass disposal, market value of euthanized cattle, and enhanced rabies surveillance). Estimates of direct costs were determined on the basis of agency records and other relevant data obtained from notes and reports made by agency staff at the time of the incident and from a review of the literature.

RESULTS

Primary costs included the market value of euthanized cattle ($51,461 in West Virginia; $12,561 in Ohio), human postexposure prophylaxis ($17,959 in West Virginia; $11,297 in Ohio), and salary and benefits for personnel involved in the response ($19,792 in West Virginia; $14,496 in Ohio).

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

These results should provide a basis for better characterization of the economic impact of wildlife rabies in cattle in the United States.

Raccoon social networks and the potential for disease transmission

Raccoons are an important vector of rabies and other pathogens. The degree to which these pathogens can spread through a raccoon population should be closely linked to association rates between individual raccoons. Most studies of raccoon sociality have found patterns consistent with low levels of social connectivity within populations, thus the likelihood of direct pathogen transmission between raccoons is theoretically low. We used proximity detecting collars and social network metrics to calculate the degree of social connectivity in an urban raccoon population for purposes of estimating potential pathogen spread. In contrast to previous assumptions, raccoon social association networks were highly connected, and all individuals were connected to one large social network during 15 out of 18 months of study. However, these metrics may overestimate the potential for a pathogen to spread through a population, as many of the social connections were based on relatively short contact periods. To more closely reflect varying probabilities of pathogen spread, we censored the raccoon social networks based on the total amount of time spent in close proximity between two individuals per month. As this time criteria for censoring the social networks increased from one to thirty minutes, corresponding measures of network connectivity declined. These findings demonstrate that raccoon populations are much more tightly connected than would have been predicted based on previous studies, but also point out that additional research is needed to calculate more precise transmission probabilities by infected individuals, and determine how disease infection changes normal social behaviors.

Epidemiology

This chapter provides an overview of the global epidemiology of rabies, focusing on major changes over the past half-century and highlighting recent discoveries. This chapter also describes the natural and iatrogenic routes of transmission, as well as the risk and necessary actions for the prevention of rabies following an exposure. It reviews the methods for rabies diagnosis and the biologics for prevention, in addition to differences in rabies prophylaxis recommendations among advisory committees. The chapter also considers epidemiology and trends in global human rabies and the dynamics of the corresponding mammalian reservoir hosts for each area. Furthermore, it considers the phylogenetics of rabies virus, other lyssaviruses, and specific rabies virus variants in the context of regional rabies and the potential for novel emergences. Special attention is paid to developed countries, where existing surveillance and diagnostic infrastructure have provided detailed insights into the nature changing patterns in rabies epidemiology-patterns expected to be increasingly relevant to other less-developed nations based on current trends. Special attention is afforded to canine rabies, as dogs remain responsible for over 99% of all human exposures to the virus, including the methods and problems associated with intentional and unintentional movement of dogs at national and international levels. Finally, the chapter discusses the economic burden of rabies in terms of human and infrastructure support.

Integrating the landscape epidemiology and genetics of RNA viruses: rabies in domestic dogs as a model

Landscape epidemiology and landscape genetics combine advances in molecular techniques, spatial analyses and epidemiological models to generate a more real-world understanding of infectious disease dynamics and provide powerful new tools for the study of RNA viruses. Using dog rabies as a model we have identified how key questions regarding viral spread and persistence can be addressed using a combination of these techniques. In contrast to wildlife rabies, investigations into the landscape epidemiology of domestic dog rabies requires more detailed assessment of the role of humans in disease spread, including the incorporation of anthropogenic landscape features, human movements and socio-cultural factors into spatial models. In particular, identifying and quantifying the influence of anthropogenic features on pathogen spread and measuring the permeability of dispersal barriers are important considerations for planning control strategies, and may differ according to cultural, social and geographical variation across countries or continents. Challenges for dog rabies research include the development of metapopulation models and transmission networks using genetic information to uncover potential source/sink dynamics and identify the main routes of viral dissemination. Information generated from a landscape genetics approach will facilitate spatially strategic control programmes that accommodate for heterogeneities in the landscape and therefore utilise resources in the most cost-effective way. This can include the efficient placement of vaccine barriers, surveillance points and adaptive management for large-scale control programmes.

Genetic tracking of the raccoon variant of rabies virus in eastern North America

To gain insight into the incursion of the raccoon variant of rabies into the raccoon population in three Canadian provinces, a collection of 192 isolates of the raccoon rabies virus (RRV) strain was acquired from across its North American range and was genetically characterized. A 516-nucleotide segment of the non-coding region between the G and L protein open reading frames, corresponding to the most variable region of the rabies virus genome, was sequenced. This analysis identified 119 different sequences, and phylogenetic analysis of the dataset supports the documented history of RRV spread. Three distinct geographically restricted RRV lineages were identified. Lineage 1 was found in Florida, Alabama and Georgia and appears to form the ancestral lineage of the raccoon variant of rabies. Lineage 2, represented by just two isolates, was found only in Florida, while the third lineage appears broadly distributed throughout the rest of the eastern United States and eastern Canada. In New York State, two distinct spatially segregated variants were identified; the one occupying the western and northern portions of the state was responsible for an incursion of raccoon rabies into the Canadian province of Ontario. Isolates from New Brunswick and Quebec form distinct, separate clusters, consistent with their independent origins from neighboring areas of the United States. The data are consistent with localized northward incursion into these three separate areas with no evidence of east-west viral movement between the three Canadian provinces.

Distribution, prevalence, and genetic characterization of Baylisascaris procyonis in selected areas of Georgia

Baylisascaris procyonis is an intestinal nematode of raccoons (Procyon lotor) that can cause fatal larval migrans in numerous species of birds and mammals, including humans. Although this parasite has historically been absent in the southeastern United States, it has been found in isolated regions in the Appalachian Mountains and was recently documented in DeKalb County, Georgia. The first objective of the current study was to investigate the distribution and prevalence of B. procyonis in selected populations of raccoons in Georgia. Intestinal tracts of 312 raccoons from 25 Georgia counties were examined for B. procyonis. The only county where B. procyonis was detected was Clarke County, where 12 of 116 (10.3%) raccoons were infected. In Clarke County, significantly more juveniles (P  =  0.049) were infected compared with adults, and no differences in prevalence were noted by sex, season of capture, or land use (rural vs. urban); however, significantly (P  =  0.0370) higher worm burdens were found in infected raccoons from urban/suburban locations compared with rural areas. In addition, Toxascaris leonina , a morphologically similar ascarid, was found in 3 raccoons from Clarke County (n  =  2) and Morgan County (n  =  1). A second objective was to determine if sequence polymorphisms were associated with B. procyonis from different geographic regions. Because sequences from a single worm from Japan had been entered into GenBank, we obtained nematodes from Kentucky and Texas for comparison with our samples from Georgia. Sequence analysis of the 18S and 5.8S rRNA genes and the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) -1 and ITS-2 regions confirmed Georgia samples were B. procyonis. Although several polymorphic bases were observed within both ITS regions, none was associated with a particular geographic location. These data indicate that the distribution of B. procyonis within Georgia is increasing and only limited genetic variation is present in the rRNA and ITS gene regions among B. procyonis from the southern United States and introduced populations in Japan.

Can translocations be used to mitigate human - wildlife conflicts?

Growing public concerns about lethal methods to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts place increasing constraints on wildlife management options. Translocations, perceived as humane and non-lethal solutions, are increasingly advocated to resolve these conflicts. The present study summarises the literature on translocations of wild mammals, with particular emphasis on ‘problem’ animals, reviews the impact of translocations on survival, behaviour, animal welfare and potential spread of diseases, and evaluates the feasibility and effectiveness of translocations to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts. Translocations may have a detrimental impact on survival rates and lead to extreme dispersal movements. In some species, stress-related capture results in substantial mortality. In other species, homing causes animals to leave the release area. In addition, some animals resume the nuisance behaviour at the release site. Individuals that survive a translocation may suffer from malnutrition, dehydration, decreased immunocompetence and predation. Supportive measures such as acclimatisation pens and provision of food and shelter can drastically reduce post-release dispersal movements and mortality, although the adoption of these measures increases the cost of translocation. Translocations have the potential to spread diseases to conspecifics, humans, domestic animals and livestock. Health surveillance, seldom implemented, is likely to add significantly to the cost of translocation. Very few studies have reported the costs of translocations or addressed which stakeholders are expected to pay for translocating problem animals. Alternative management options are rarely mentioned. Despite the perceived humaneness of translocations to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts, the fate of translocated animals has been rarely monitored. In addition, very few studies have mentioned whether and for how long the conflict was resolved. We suggest that determining whether the translocation leads to the resolution of the problem should be the main criterion to evaluate the success of the translocation of problem animals. We propose a list of criteria to assist decisions regarding the suitability, effectiveness and humaneness of translocations to manage problems posed by wild mammals.

Oral rabies vaccination in north america: opportunities, complexities, and challenges

Steps to facilitate inter-jurisdictional collaboration nationally and continentally have been critical for implementing and conducting coordinated wildlife rabies management programs that rely heavily on oral rabies vaccination (ORV). Formation of a national rabies management team has been pivotal for coordinated ORV programs in the United States of America. The signing of the North American Rabies Management Plan extended a collaborative framework for coordination of surveillance, control, and research in border areas among Canada, Mexico, and the US. Advances in enhanced surveillance have facilitated sampling of greater scope and intensity near ORV zones for improved rabies management decision-making in real time. The value of enhanced surveillance as a complement to public health surveillance was best illustrated in Ohio during 2007, where 19 rabies cases were detected that were critical for the formulation of focused contingency actions for controlling rabies in this strategically key area. Diverse complexities and challenges are commonplace when applying ORV to control rabies in wild meso-carnivores. Nevertheless, intervention has resulted in notable successes, including the elimination of an arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) rabies virus variant in most of southern Ontario, Canada, with ancillary benefits of elimination extending into Quebec and the northeastern US. Progress continues with ORV toward preventing the spread and working toward elimination of a unique variant of gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies in west central Texas. Elimination of rabies in coyotes (Canis latrans) through ORV contributed to the US being declared free of canine rabies in 2007. Raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies control continues to present the greatest challenges among meso-carnivore rabies reservoirs, yet to date intervention has prevented this variant from gaining a broad geographic foothold beyond ORV zones designed to prevent its spread from the eastern US. Progress continues toward the development and testing of new bait-vaccine combinations that increase the chance for improved delivery and performance in the diverse meso-carnivore rabies reservoir complex in the US.

Time series analysis of the impact of oral vaccination on raccoon rabies in West Virginia, 1990-2007

To assess the potential impact of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) on the occurrence of raccoon rabies in the mid-Atlantic region, temporal and seasonal trends of raccoon rabies cases reported in West Virginia from 1990 to 2007 were identified with both descriptive statistical analysis and exploratory time series analysis. Raccoon rabies cases in the non-ORV region maintain an enzootic pattern and increase over time; a bimodal seasonal pattern is observed with a large peak in April and a smaller peak in August. The results of the model indicate that the effect of the ORV intervention to control raccoon rabies was statistically significant. ORV should be attempted in other enzootic raccoon rabies areas.

Economic evaluation of an oral rabies vaccination program for control of a domestic dog-coyote rabies epizootic: 1995-2006

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a benefit-cost analysis of the results of the domestic dog and coyote (DDC) oral rabies vaccine (ORV) program in Texas from 1995 through 2006 by use of fiscal records and relevant public health data.

DESIGN

Retrospective benefit-cost analysis. Procedures-Pertinent economic data were collected in 20 counties of south Texas affected by a DDC-variant rabies epizootic. The costs and benefits afforded by a DDC ORV program were then calculated. Costs were the total expenditures of the ORV program. Benefits were the savings associated with the number of potentially prevented human postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) treatments and animal rabies tests for the DDC-variant rabies virus in the epizootic area and an area of potential disease expansion.

RESULTS

Total estimated benefits of the program approximately ranged from $89 million to $346 million, with total program costs of $26,358,221 for the study period. The estimated savings (ie, damages avoided) from extrapolated numbers of PEP treatments and animal rabies tests yielded benefit-cost ratios that ranged from 3.38 to 13.12 for various frequen-cies of PEP and animal testing.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

In Texas, the use of ORV stopped the northward spread and led to the progressive elimination of the DDC variant of rabies in coyotes (Canis latrans). The decision to implement an ORV program was cost-efficient, although many unknowns were involved in the original decision, and key economic variables were identified for consideration in future planning of ORV programs.

Genetic structure of raccoons in eastern North America based on mtDNA: implications for subspecies designation and rabies disease dynamics

Subspecific designations are useful for wildlife management when they represent real barriers to gene flow. In this study, we assess genetic partitioning of mitochondrial DNA control region variation to determine if the structuring is congruent with morphologically defined subspecies of the common raccoon (Procyon lotor (L., 1758)). Mitochondrial control region sequences were analyzed within and among four subspecies ( Procyon lotor elucus Bangs, 1898, Procyon lotor lotor (L., 1758), Procyon lotor hirtus Nelson and Goldman, 1930, and Procyon lotor varius Nelson and Goldman, 1930) that occur along the eastern seaboard of North America through to the central United States. This identified 76 haplotypes, 59 of which were specific to one of the four ranges, while only 1 haplotype was wide-spread. Phylogenetic analysis revealed three distinct lineages: one found primarily in Florida, one along the eastern seaboard, and the third predominantly to the west of the Mississippi River. These lineages likely diverged during the Pleistocene, as a result of rising sea levels creating barriers to gene flow. The range of P. l. elucus is still primarily one lineage supporting the subspecific designation; however, there is considerable lineage mixing across the ranges of P. l. hirtus, P. l. lotor, and P. l. varius, suggesting that they be synonymized to P. l. lotor. While some of these subspecies designations are not supported, we have found that landscape attributes affect gene flow, which can be of use in informing rabies management.

Spatial dynamics and genetics of infectious diseases on heterogeneous landscapes

Explicit spatial analysis of infectious disease processes recognizes that host-pathogen interactions occur in specific locations at specific times and that often the nature, direction, intensity and outcome of these interactions depend upon the particular location and identity of both host and pathogen. Spatial context and geographical landscape contribute to the probability of initial disease establishment, direction and velocity of disease spread, the genetic organization of resistance and susceptibility, and the design of appropriate control and management strategies. In this paper, we review the manner in which the physical organization of the landscape has been shown to influence the population dynamics and spatial genetic structure of host-pathogen interactions, and how we might incorporate landscape architecture into spatially explicit population models of the infectious disease process to increase our ability to predict patterns of disease occurrence and optimally design vaccination and control policies.

Pre-spillover prevention of emerging zoonotic diseases: what are the targets and what are the tools?

The uneven standards of surveillance, human- or animal-based, for zoonotic diseases or pathogens maintained and transmitted by wildlife H(R)s, or even domestic species, is a global problem, readily apparent even within the United States, where investment in public health, including surveillance systems, has a long and enviable history. As of 2006, there appears to be little scientific, social, or political consensus that animal-based surveillance for zoonoses merits investment in international infrastructure, other than the fledgling efforts with avian influenza, or targeted nontraditional avenues of surveillance and research. National institutions charged with strategic planning for emerging diseases or intentional releases of zoonotic agents have emphasized improving diagnostic capabilities for detecting human infections, modifying the immune status of human or domestic animals through vaccines, producing better antiviral or antibacterial drugs, and enhancing human-based surveillance as an early warning system. With the possible exception of extensive human vaccination, each of these approaches target post-spillover events and none of these avenues of research will have the slightest impact on reducing the risk of additional emergence of viruses or other pathogens from wildlife. Novel schemes of preventing spillover of human pathogens from animal H(R)s can only spring from improving our understanding of the ecological context and biological interactions of pathogen maintenance among H(R)s. Although the benefit derived from investments to improve surveillance and knowledge of zoonotic pathogens circulating among wildlife H(R) populations is uncertain, our experience with HIV and the looming threat of pandemic avian influenza A inform us of the outcomes we can expect by relying on detection of post-spillover events among sentinel humans.

Animal-based national surveillance for zoonotic disease: quality, limitations, and implications of a model system for monitoring rabies

Surveillance for zoonotic diseases among wildlife is a research and public health challenge. The inherent limitations posed by the requisite human-animal interactions are often undefined and underappreciated. The national surveillance system for animal rabies in the United States was examined as a model system; reporting of animal rabies is legally mandated, each case of rabies is laboratory confirmed, and data have been consistently collected for more than 50 years. Factors influencing the monthly counts of animal rabies tests reported during 1992-2001 were assessed by univariate and multivariable regression methods. The suitability of passively collected surveillance data for determining the presence or absence of the raccoon-associated variant of rabies within states and within individual counties was assessed by determining critical threshold values from the regression analyses. The size of the human population and total expenditures within a county accounted for 72% and 67%, respectively, of the variance in testing. The annual median number of rabies tests performed was seven for counties without rabies, 22 for counties with non-raccoon rabies, and 34 for counties with raccoon rabies. Active surveillance may be required in locales with sparse human populations when a high degree of confidence in the status of rabies is required.

Assessing the role of long-distance translocation and spatial heterogeneity in the raccoon rabies epidemic in Connecticut

Spatial heterogeneity and long-distance translocation (LDT) play important roles in the spatio-temporal dynamics and management of emerging infectious diseases and invasive species. We assessed the influence of LDT events on the invasive spread of raccoon rabies through Connecticut. We identified several putative LDT events, and developed a network-model to evaluate whether they became new foci for epidemic spread. LDT was fairly common, but many of the LDTs were isolated events that did not spread. Two putative LDT events did appear to become nascent foci that affected the epidemic in surrounding townships. In evaluating the role of LDT, we simultaneously revisited the problem of spatial heterogeneity. The spread of raccoon rabies is associated with forest cover--rabies moves up to three-times slower through the most heavily forested townships compared with those with less forestation. Forestation also modified the effect of rivers. In the best overall model, rabies did not cross the river separating townships that were heavily forested, and the spread slowed substantially between townships that were lightly forested. Our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity can be used to enhance the effects of rabies control by focusing vaccine bait distribution along rivers in lightly forested areas. LDT events are a concern, but this analysis suggests that at a local scale they can be isolated and managed.

Status of oral rabies vaccination in wild carnivores in the United States

Persistence of multiple variants of rabies virus in wild Chiroptera and Carnivora presents a continuing challenge to medical, veterinary and wildlife management professionals. Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) targeting specific Carnivora species has emerged as an integral adjunct to conventional rabies control strategies to protect humans and domestic animals. ORV has been applied with progress toward eliminating rabies in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in western Europe and southern Ontario, Canada. More recently since 1995, coordinated ORV was implemented among eastern states in the U.S.A. to prevent spread of raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies and to contain and eliminate variants of rabies virus in the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and coyote (Canis latrans) in Texas. In this paper, we describe the current cooperative ORV program in the U.S.A. and discuss the importance of coordination of surveillance and rabies control programs in Canada, Mexico and the U.S.A. Specifically, several priorities have been identified for these programs to succeed, which include additional oral vaccines, improved baits to reach target species, optimized ORV strategies, effective communication and legal strategies to limit translocation across ORV barriers, and access to sufficient long-term funding. These key priorities must be addressed to ensure that ORV has the optimal chance of achieving long range programmatic goals of eliminating specific variants of rabies virus in North American terrestrial carnivores.

Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort.

A model predicting that the spread of rabies across Ohio will be much more rapid than elsewhere reveals the power of this approach to pro-actively assist targeted surveillance strategies and vaccine delivery

Spatial dynamics and molecular ecology of North American rabies

Rabies, caused by a single-stranded RNA virus, is arguably the most important viral zoonotic disease worldwide. Although endemic throughout many regions for millennia, rabies is also undergoing epidemic expansion, often quite rapid, among wildlife populations across regions of Europe and North America. A current rabies epizootic in North America is largely attributable to the accidental introduction of a particularly well-adapted virus variant into a naive raccoon population along the Virginia/West Virginia border in the mid-1970s. We have used the extant database on the spatial and temporal occurrence of rabid raccoons across the eastern United States to construct predictive models of disease spread and have tied patterns of emergence to local environmental variables, genetic heterogeneity, and host specificity. Rabies will continue to be a remarkable model system for exploring basic issues in the temporal and spatial dynamics of expanding infectious diseases and examining ties between disease population ecology and evolutionary genetics at both micro- and macro-evolutionary time scales.

A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment

Directly transmitted infectious diseases spread through wildlife populations as travelling waves away from the sites of original introduction. These waves often become distorted through their interaction with environmental and population heterogeneities and by long-distance translocation of infected individuals. Accurate a priori predictions of travelling waves of infection depend upon understanding and quantifying these distorting factors. We assess the effects of anisotropies arising from the orientation of rivers in relation to the direction of disease-front propagation and the damming effect of mountains on disease movement in natural populations. The model successfully predicts the local and large-scale prevaccination spread of raccoon rabies through New York State, based on a previous spatially heterogeneous model of raccoon-rabies invasion across the state of Connecticut. Use of this model provides a rare example of a priori prediction of an epidemic invasion over a naturally heterogeneous landscape. Model predictions matched to data can also be used to evaluate the most likely points of disease introduction. These results have general implications for predicting future pathogen invasions and evaluating potential containment strategies.