Screening adults for pre-diabetes and diabetes may be cost-saving

Type 1 diabetes prediction in autoantibody-positive individuals: performance, time and money matter

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Efficient prediction of clinical type 1 diabetes is important for risk stratification and monitoring of autoantibody-positive individuals. In this study, we compared type 1 diabetes predictive models for predictive performance, cost and participant time needed for testing.

METHODS

We developed 1943 predictive models using a Cox model based on a type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (GRS2), autoantibody count and types, BMI, age, self-reported gender and OGTT-derived glucose and C-peptide measures. We trained and validated the models using halves of a dataset comprising autoantibody-positive first-degree relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes (n=3967, 49% female, 14.9 ± 12.1 years of age) from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study. The median duration of follow-up was 4.7 years (IQR 2.0-8.1), and 1311 participants developed clinical type 1 diabetes. Models were compared for predictive performances, estimated cost and participant time.

RESULTS

Models that included metabolic measures had best performance, with most exhibiting small performance differences (less than 3% and p>0.05). However, the cost and participant time associated with measuring metabolic variables ranged between US$56 and US$293 and 10-165 min, respectively. The predictive model performance had temporal variability, with the highest GRS2 influence and discriminative power being exhibited in the earliest preclinical stages. OGTT-derived metabolic measures had a similar performance to HbA1c- or Index60-derived models, with an important difference in cost and participant time.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Cost-performance model analyses identified trade-offs between cost and performance models, and identified cost-minimising options to tailor risk-screening strategies.

Brazilian guideline for screening and diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: a position statement from the Brazilian Diabetes Society

BACKGROUND

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) often experience prolonged periods of asymptomatic hyperglycemia, which significantly increases the risk of developing chronic complications related to diabetes. Screening programs for individuals at high risk for T2D provide valuable opportunities not only for early diagnosis but also for detecting intermediate hyperglycemic states, commonly referred to as prediabetes. Interventions aimed at preventing diabetes in this group can successfully delay or even avoid the onset of the disease and its associated burdens. This review is an update of the Brazilian Diabetes Society (Sociedade Brasileira de Diabetes [SBD]) evidence-based guideline for diagnosing diabetes and screening T2D.

METHODS

The methodology was previously published and defined by the internal institutional steering committee. The working group drafted the manuscript by selecting vital clinical questions for a narrative review, utilizing MEDLINE via PubMed to identify relevant studies. The review assessed the best available evidence, including randomized clinical trials (RCTs), meta-analyses, and high-quality observational studies related to the diagnosis of diabetes.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Fifteen specific recommendations were formulated. Screening is recommended for adults aged 35 and older or younger individuals with obesity and additional risk factors. For children and adolescents, screening is recommended starting at age ten or the onset of puberty if they are overweight or obese and have additional risk factors. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c are recommended as initial screening tests. The oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is recommended for high-risk individuals with normal HbA1c and FPG or those with prediabetes. The 1-h OGTT is preferred over the 2-h OGTT, as it is both more practical and a superior test. A structured approach to reevaluation intervals is provided.

Screening for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review of Recent Economic Evaluations

OBJECTIVES

To examine recent economic evaluations and understand whether any type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) screening designs may represent better value for money and to rate their methodological qualities.

METHODS

We systematically searched 3 concepts (economic evaluations [EEs], T2DM, screening) in 5 databases (Medline, Embase, EconLit, Web of Science, and Cochrane) for EEs published between 2010 and 2023. Two independent reviewers screened for and rated their methodological quality (using the Consensus on Health Economics Criteria Checklist-Extended).

RESULTS

Of 32 EEs, a majority were from high-income countries (69%). Half used single biomarkers (50%) to screen adults ≥30 to <60 years old (60%) but did not report locations (69%), treatments for those diagnosed (66%), diagnostic methods (57%), or screening intervals (54%). Compared with no screening, T2DM screening using single biomarkers was found to be not cost-effective (23/54 comparisons), inconclusive (16/54), dominant (11/54), or cost-effective (4/54). Compared with no screening, screening with a risk score and single biomarkers was found to be cost-effective (21/40) or dominant (19/40). The risk score alone was mostly dominant (6/10). Compared with universal screening, targeted screening among obese, overweight, or older people may be cost-effective or dominant. Compared with fasting plasma glucose or fasting capillary glucose, screening using risk scores was found to be mostly dominant or cost-effective. Expanding screening locations or lowering HbA1c or fasting plasma glucose thresholds was found to be dominant or cost-effective. Each EE had 4 to 17 items (median 13/20) on Consensus on Health Economics Criteria Checklist-Extended rated "Yes/Rather Yes."

CONCLUSIONS

EE findings varied based on screening tools, intervals, locations, minimum screening age, diagnostic methods, and treatment. Future EEs should more comprehensively report screening designs and evaluate T2DM screening in low-income countries.

Cost effectiveness of nonpharmacological prevention programs for diabetes: A systematic review of trial-based studies

Trial-based economic value of prevention programs for diabetes is inexplicit. We aimed to review the cost-effectiveness of nonpharmacological interventions to prevent type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for high-risk people. Six electronic databases were searched up to March 2022. Studies assessing both the cost and health outcomes of nonpharmacological interventions for people at high-risk of T2DM were included. The quality of the study was assessed by the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 checklist. The primary outcome for synthesis was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs were standardized in 2022 US dollars. Narrative synthesis was performed, considering different types and delivery methods of interventions. Sixteen studies included five based on the US diabetes prevention program (DPP), six on non-DPP-based lifestyle interventions, four on health education, and one on screening plus lifestyle intervention. Compared with usual care, lifestyle interventions showed higher potential of cost-effectiveness than educational interventions. Among lifestyle interventions, DPP-based programs were less cost-effective (median of ICERs: $27,077/QALY) than non-DPP-based programs (median of ICERs: $1395/QALY) from healthcare perspectives, but with larger decreases in diabetes incidence. Besides, the cost-effectiveness of interventions was more possibly realized through the combination of different delivery methods. Different interventions to prevent T2DM in high-risk populations are both cost-effective and feasible in various settings. Nevertheless, economic evidence from low- and middle-income countries is still lacking, and interventions delivered by trained laypersons and combined with peer support sessions or mobile technologies could be potentially a cost-effective solution in such settings with limited resources.

Deep learning-based long-term risk evaluation of incident type 2 diabetes using electrocardiogram in a non-diabetic population: a retrospective, multicentre study

Background

Diabetes is a major public health concern. We aimed to evaluate the long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a non-diabetic population using a deep learning model (DLM) detecting prevalent type 2 diabetes using electrocardiogram (ECG).

Methods

In this retrospective study, participants who underwent health checkups at two tertiary hospitals in Seoul, South Korea, between Jan 1, 2001 and Dec 31, 2022 were included. Type 2 diabetes was defined as glucose ≥126 mg/dL or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%. For survival analysis on incident type 2 diabetes, we introduced an additional variable, diabetic ECG, which is determined by the DLM trained on ECG and corresponding prevalent diabetes. It was assumed that non-diabetic individuals with diabetic ECG had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes than those with non-diabetic ECG. The one-dimensional ResNet-based model was adopted for the DLM, and the Guided Grad-CAM was used to localise important regions of ECG. We divided the non-diabetic group into the diabetic ECG group (false positive) and the non-diabetic ECG (true negative) group according to the DLM decision, and performed a Cox proportional hazard model, considering the occurrence of type 2 diabetes more than six months after the visit.

Findings

190,581 individuals were included in the study with a median follow-up period of 11.84 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for prevalent type 2 diabetes detection were 0.816 (0.807-0.825) and 0.762 (0.754-0.770) for the internal and external validations, respectively. The model primarily focused on the QRS duration and, occasionally, P or T waves. The diabetic ECG group exhibited an increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with the non-diabetic ECG group, with hazard ratios of 2.15 (1.82-2.53) and 1.92 (1.74-2.11) for internal and external validation, respectively.

Interpretation

In the non-diabetic group, those whose ECG was classified as diabetes by the DLM were at a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes than those whose ECG was not. Additional clinical research on the relationship between the phenotype of ECG and diabetes to support the results and further investigation with tracked data and various ECG recording systems are suggested for future works.

Funding

National Research Foundation of Korea.

How acculturation contributes to a rise of diabetes in Hmong Americans

ABSTRACT

This article explores the reasons for the high prevalence of diabetes among Hmong Americans, who are at greater risk for diabetes compared with non-Hispanic White patients and have a higher prevalence of diabetes than other Asian Americans and other races. Knowledge of this issue may allow medical practitioners to identify, screen, and treat Hmong Americans more frequently and at earlier ages. Although better integration of healthcare services, access, and education are needed, earlier screening may help start the diabetes education process sooner; reduce hospital, ED, and office visits; reduce costs; and prevent end-organ damage.

Diabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Assessment in Community Pharmacies: An Implementation Study

The implementation of a new service is often challenging when translating research findings into routine clinical practices. This paper presents the results of the implementation study of a pilot project for a diabetes and cardiovascular diseases risk-assessment service in Belgian community pharmacies. To evaluate the implementation of the service, a mixed method was used that follows the RE-AIM framework. During the testing stage, 37 pharmacies participated, including five that dropped out due to a lack of time or COVID-19-related temporary obligations. Overall, 502 patients participated, of which 376 (74.9%) were eligible for according-to-protocol analysis. Of these, 80 patients (21.3%) were identified as being at high risk for the targeted diseases, and 100 (26.6%) were referred to general practice for further investigation. We presented the limited effectiveness and the key elements influencing optimal implementation. Additional strategies, such as interprofessional workshops, a data-sharing platform, and communication campaigns, should be considered to spread awareness of the new role of pharmacists. Such strategies could also promote collaboration with general practitioners to ensure the follow-up of patients at high risk. Overall, this service was considered easy to perform and feasible in practice but would require financial and external support to ensure its effectiveness, sustainability, and larger-scale implementation.

Development and validation of a machine learning-augmented algorithm for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Opportunely screening for diabetes is crucial to reduce its related morbidity, mortality, and socioeconomic burden. Machine learning (ML) has excellent capability to maximize predictive accuracy. We aim to develop ML-augmented models for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings.

METHODS

8425 participants were involved from a population-based study in Hubei, China since 2011. The dataset was split into a development set and a testing set. Seven different ML algorithms were compared to generate predictive models. Non-laboratory features were employed in the ML model for community settings, and laboratory test features were further introduced in the ML+lab models for primary care. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (auPR), and the average detection costs per participant of these models were compared with their counterparts based on the New China Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS) currently recommended for diabetes screening.

RESULTS

The AUC and auPR of the ML model were 0·697and 0·303 in the testing set, seemingly outperforming those of NCDRS by 10·99% and 64·67%, respectively. The average detection cost of the ML model was 12·81% lower than that of NCDRS with the same sensitivity (0·72). Moreover, the average detection cost of the ML+FPG model is the lowest among the ML+lab models and less than that of the ML model and NCDRS+FPG model.

CONCLUSION

The ML model and the ML+FPG model achieved higher predictive accuracy and lower detection costs than their counterpart based on NCDRS. Thus, the ML-augmented algorithm is potential to be employed for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings.

Management of prediabetes from the perspective of Spanish physicians and community pharmacists: Detecta2 study

INTRODUCTION

Prediabetes is a high-risk state for diabetes. The study aims to describe routine clinical practice and the views of physicians and pharmacists on prediabetes management.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted using a structured questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 410 physicians and 393 pharmacists completed the questionnaire. Self-adherence to clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) was reported by 51.5% and 23.2% of physicians and pharmacists, respectively. Less than 60% of participants defined prediabetes according to main CPG. Regarding the use of screening strategies to detect prediabetes (physicians: 96%; pharmacists: 42.1%), reports indicate the opportunistic strategy is widely employed (≥75%) whereas systematic screening is unusual (<20%). Changes in lifestyle were deemed essential by almost all participants (≥95%), but in clinical practice only 58.3% of healthcare centers and 28.0% of pharmacies were found to provide awareness-raising/instruction. The role of pharmacists in the prevention of prediabetes/diabetes was judged useful by most participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of CPG, systematic prediabetes screening strategies, and specific strategies for patient education are scarce. The support of community pharmacists in prediabetes management was well valued. Therefore, it is crucial that the lines of action followed by both physicians and pharmacists align with each other and with the CPG.

Management of prediabetes from the perspective of Spanish physicians and community pharmacists: Detecta2 study

INTRODUCTION

Prediabetes is a high-risk state for diabetes. The study aims to describe routine clinical practice and the views of physicians and pharmacists on prediabetes management.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted using a structured questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 410 physicians and 393 pharmacists completed the questionnaire. Self-adherence to clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) was reported by 51.5% and 23.2% of physicians and pharmacists, respectively. Less than 60% of participants defined prediabetes according to main CPG. Regarding the use of screening strategies to detect prediabetes (physicians: 96%; pharmacists: 42.1%), reports indicate the opportunistic strategy is widely employed (≥75%) whereas systematic screening is unusual (<20%). Changes in lifestyle were deemed essential by almost all participants (≥95%), but in clinical practice only 58.3% of healthcare centers and 28.0% of pharmacies were found to provide awareness-raising/instruction. The role of pharmacists in the prevention of prediabetes/diabetes was judged useful by most participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of CPG, systematic prediabetes screening strategies, and specific strategies for patient education are scarce. The support of community pharmacists in prediabetes management was well valued. Therefore, it is crucial that the lines of action followed by both physicians and pharmacists align with each other and with the CPG.

Blood glucose testing in the community: who are the users and do they have elevated blood glucose?

INTRODUCTION On-the-spot blood glucose testing is a health service performed in public spaces to raise diabetes awareness and screen for elevated blood glucose levels. AIM To describe the users of this service and the frequency of detecting elevated blood glucose. METHODS Data collected at point-of-testing on a standardised form over 20 months in two regions of New Zealand were audited. Descriptive and simple inferential statistics report on population demographics and presence of elevated blood glucose (mmol/L). RESULTS Data from 2156 individuals were audited. Most (1680, 78%) were female, the mean age was 52 years (standard deviation 18 years) and all major ethnic groups and socioeconomic quintiles were represented. For 53% of responders, this was their first blood glucose test. In total, 153 (7.1%) cases with elevated blood glucose were identified, including 94 who did not report a previous pre-diabetes or diabetes diagnosis. Blood glucose was not correlated with socioeconomic status (r=0.04; P=0.07), but weakly correlated with age (r=0.19; P<0.001). Blood glucose values did not appear to differ between ethnicities (P=0.052). Men had a higher mean value than women (P=0.003). People with elevated blood glucose access their general practitioner more often than people with normal blood glucose, irrespective of a diabetes diagnosis (P=0.002). DISCUSSION On-the-spot blood glucose testing is a health service accessed by a wide range of people, although more commonly by women than men. Future interventions targeting men may better engage them in health screening. Alongside awareness raising, on-the-spot community testing identified previously unknown elevated blood glucose levels at a rate of 1-in-22, and may lead to the earlier identification and treatment of prediabetes or diabetes.

Evaluation of the value of diabetes risk scores in screening for undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes: a community-based study in southwestern China

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of existing diabetes risk scores (DRSs) to screen for undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (UDM) and prediabetes (PD) in a community-based southwestern Chinese population.

METHODS

Participants in TIDE-Chengdu survey with requisite data and without known diabetes were included. Five Chinese-derived DRSs and six non-Chinese-derived DRSs were included for evaluation. Their performance in detecting UDM and UMD or PD (UDM/PD) was assessed using the C-statistic. The cost-effectiveness of the optimal DRS was compared with that of capillary fasting blood glucose (CFBG).

RESULTS

Of the 1,692 TIDE-Chengdu survey participants included, 177 (10.5%) had UDM and 339 (20.0%) had PD. The rural participants (N = 737) were more likely to have UDM (13.4% vs. 8.2%) and PD (24.8% vs. 16.3%) than their urban counterparts (N = 955) (P < 0.0001). In the full population, the included DRSs all showed good discrimination in detecting UDM (C-statistic: 0.699 to 0.762) and UDM/PD (C-statistic: 0.717 to 0.769), but the New Chinese DRS (NCDRS) performed best for both UDM and UDM/PD. The DRSs evaluated all showed better performance in urban participants than rural participants for both UDM (C-statistic: 0.718 to 0.795 vs. 0.642 to 0.720) and UDM/PD (C-statistic: 0.729 to 0.793 vs. 0.682 to 0.726) (all P < 0.05). The mean cost per UDM/PD case identified was lower with NCDRS at score 25 (¥503.3($71.9)) and 27 (¥490.5 ($70.1)) than CFBG at 5.0, 5.1, 5.2, or 5.3 mmol/L (¥631.7 ($90.2), ¥611.8 ($87.4), ¥579.2 ($82.7) and ¥551.9 ($78.8)), whereas the mean costs per UDM case identified was higher with NCDRS at score 25 (¥1379.3 ($197.0)) and 27 (¥1315.1 ($187.9)) than CFBG at 5.3, 5.4, or 5.5 mmol/L (¥1301.7 ($186.0), ¥1247.7 ($178.2) and ¥1173.3 ($167.6)).

CONCLUSION

The NCDRS represents a valid and cost-effective tool for use in southwestern China to identify high-risk patients with UDM or PD who need a diagnostic test.

Salivary Fructosamine as a Noninvasive Glycemic Biomarker: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Standard diagnostic and monitoring methods for glycemic status involve invasive sample collection through venous puncture or fingerstick. Recent attention has been focused on exploring noninvasive methods through oral biofluids. Specifically, serum fructosamine has been established as a short-term (2- to 3-wk) marker of disease status in patients with diabetes. Fructosamine measured through noninvasive means such as saliva has shown promise, but its clinical applicability is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the available evidence on using salivary fructosamine as a reliable noninvasive marker to screen and diagnose patients with diabetes mellitus in the clinical setting. A comparative analysis of the correlative accuracy of salivary fructosamine measurements with established blood glycemic biomarkers such as serum fructosamine, blood glucose, and HbA1c will be conducted.

METHODS

Six electronic databases (PubMed, PubMed Central, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Cochrane Library) were searched for original research papers (clinical and animal studies) that were relevant to the objective of this systematic review. The search was initiated on May 28, 2020. The systematic review was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Bias risk assessment, overall quality, and level of evidence were based on the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Appraisal Tool for Cross-Sectional Studies, and Collaborative Approach to Meta-Analysis and Review of Animal Data from Experimental Studies tool. Heterogeneity was assessed using the National Institutes of Health quality assessment tool for cross-sectional studies.

RESULTS

A total of 174 records were identified. Full-text articles screened for eligibility (n = 21) identified only 6 original research articles relevant to the research question and were thus included in the systematic review. The types of studies identified were cross-sectional and in vivo studies. Three studies (3/6) showed positive correlation of salivary fructosamine with blood glucose levels, while 1 study (1/6) demonstrated a positive correlation with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). Limitations related to sample size and selection were identified along with a fair level of interstudy heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

Based on the evidence evaluated, the utility of salivary fructosamine as a noninvasive marker to screen and diagnose patients with diabetes is doubtful. The overall level of evidence was low (IIIB) and the risk of bias was determined to be high.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

Further evidence in the form of large-scale well-controlled studies is needed prior to recommending salivary fructosamine as a noninvasive diagnostic tool for glycemic status in patients with diabetes mellitus.

Cost-effectiveness of Diabetes Prevention Interventions Targeting High-risk Individuals and Whole Populations: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review of studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness (CE) of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D) among high-risk individuals and whole populations.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Interventions targeting high-risk individuals are those that identify people at high risk of developing T2D and then treat them with either lifestyle or metformin interventions. Population-based prevention strategies are those that focus on the whole population regardless of the level of risk, creating public health impact through policy implementation, campaigns, and other environmental strategies. We systematically searched seven electronic databases for studies published in English between 2008 and 2017. We grouped lifestyle interventions targeting high-risk individuals by delivery method and personnel type. We used the median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured in cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or cost saved to measure the CE of interventions. We used the $50,000/QALY threshold to determine whether an intervention was cost-effective or not. ICERs are reported in 2017 U.S. dollars.

RESULTS

Our review included 39 studies: 28 on interventions targeting high-risk individuals and 11 targeting whole populations. Both lifestyle and metformin interventions in high-risk individuals were cost-effective from a health care system or a societal perspective, with median ICERs of $12,510/QALY and $17,089/QALY, respectively, compared with no intervention. Among lifestyle interventions, those that followed a Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) curriculum had a median ICER of $6,212/QALY, while those that did not follow a DPP curriculum had a median ICER of $13,228/QALY. Compared with lifestyle interventions delivered one-on-one or by a health professional, those offered in a group setting or provided by a combination of health professionals and lay health workers had lower ICERs. Among population-based interventions, taxing sugar-sweetened beverages was cost-saving from both the health care system and governmental perspectives. Evaluations of other population-based interventions-including fruit and vegetable subsidies, community-based education programs, and modifications to the built environment-showed inconsistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the T2D prevention interventions included in our review were found to be either cost-effective or cost-saving. Our findings may help decision makers set priorities and allocate resources for T2D prevention in real-world settings.

Improvement of Blood Samples Preanalytic Management Alters the Clinical Results of Glucose Values: Population Study

BACKGROUND

Prolonged time elapsing between the blood drawing and separation of the cell mass may result in decreased sample glucose levels due to continuous glycolysis. This can lead to underdiagnoses of hyperglycemic states and overdiagnosis of hypoglycemia. We aimed to evaluate the clinical impact of shortened transit time and earlier centrifugation of laboratory specimens on reported glucose results and diagnosis of clinically significant hypoglycemia (<50 mg/dL) or elevated glucose levels (>100 mg/dL).

METHODS

We assessed all fasting-serum glucose tests from the adult population (190 767 subjects) without known diabetes residing in Southern Israel. Before and after intervention periods were compared: 268 359 blood tests were performed during 2009-2010, and 317 336 during 2012-2013.

RESULTS

While glucose levels were 94.17 mg/dL ± 14.12 in 2012-2013 versus 83.53 mg/dL ± 14.50 in 2009-2010 (12.75% ± 0.88 increase, P < .001), the difference in glycated hemoglobin levels was statistically significant but clinically negligible: 5.84% ± 0.56 in 2012-2013 versus 5.88% ± 0.56 in 2009-2010 (0.53% ± 0.78 decrease, P < .01). There was an increased likelihood of a glucose result to be above 100 mg/dL following intervention: 9.80% versus 25.90%, P < .001. For clinics distanced over 40 km from the laboratory, age-adjusted odds ratio value was 1.26 (95% CI 1.13, 1.41). The proportion of samples with hypoglycemia values decreased from 0.33% to 0.03% (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated an important change in glucose values over a two-year period following an improvement of the preanalytic processes. The intervention was related to an increase in the frequency of hyperglycemia results and a decrease in the number of hypoglycemia results. Future administrative projects should consider clinical consequences with involvement of all relevant stakeholders.

Secondary prevention of diabetes through workplace health screening

Background

Workplace health screening offers a unique opportunity to assess individuals for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Aims

To evaluate the association between workplace diabetes screening, subsequent diagnosis and changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and body mass index (BMI) among individuals who screened positive for diabetes.

Methods

Employees without a prior diagnosis of diabetes participated in workplace health screening by 45 employers throughout the USA. Individuals screened positive for diabetes based on standard criteria (≥126 mg/dL FPG or ≥6.5% [48 mmol/mol] HbA1c). Diabetes diagnoses were identified after screening using claims-based ICD9-CM diagnosis codes. Discrete-time survival analysis estimated the monthly rate of new diabetes cases after screening, relative to the time period before screening. Paired t-tests evaluated 1-year changes in blood glucose measures and BMI among individuals with positive screenings.

Results

Of 22790 participating individuals, 900 (4%) screened positive for diabetes. A significantly greater rate of new diabetes diagnoses was observed during the first month after screening, compared to the 3-month period before screening (odds ratio [OR] 2.65, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 2.02-3.47). Among 538 individuals with diabetes who returned for workplace screening 1 year later, significant improvements were observed in BMI (mean ± SD = -0.63 ± 2.56 kg/m2, P < 0.001) and FPG levels (mean ± SD = -9.3 ± 66.5 mg/dL, P < 0.01).

Conclusions

Workplace screening was associated with a reduction in the number of undiagnosed employees with diabetes and significant improvement in FPG and BMI at 1-year follow-up.

The Burden of Undiagnosed Diabetes Mellitus in Adult African Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes is rapidly increasing in Africa. Type two diabetes may remain undetected for many years, leading to severe complications and healthcare costs. This underlines the importance of understanding the magnitude of undiagnosed diabetes in different populations of Africa. This study is intended to summarize and pool the results of community-based studies to provide a continental level estimate of the undiagnosed diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE/PubMed, HINARI, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar for community-based studies on diabetes mellitus in Africa. Descriptive information for the original studies was presented in a table, and the quantitative results were presented in forest plots. The Cochran's Q test and I 2 test statistic were used to test heterogeneity across studies. The pooled prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes and subgroup analyses within urban and rural population and diagnostic methods were computed by a random effects model from 2011 to 2017.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-seven articles were identified through electronic searching using keywords. Of these, seventeen studies, with a total population of 20,350, met the inclusion criteria. A random effects meta-analysis showed that the pooled prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in African population was 5.37% (95% CI: 4.57, 6.81). The pooled prevalence from subgroup analyses indicated that undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in the urban population (8.68%, 95% CI: 5.33, 12.03) is twice higher than that in the rural population (3.93%, 95% CI: 2.91, 4.95). The prevalence of UDM by OGTT (8.84%, 95% CI: 1.95, 15.73) was higher than that by the FPG diagnostic method (4.54%, 95% CI: 3.59, 5.49).

CONCLUSION

This study found high proportions of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in different communities of the African countries. Policy makers must consider diagnostic strategies to improve screening for the undiagnosed diabetes mellitus cases for effective care, which can bring about a substantial reduction in diabetes-related complications and mortality. This review is registered with PROSPERO registration number CRD42018092637.

Not performing an OGTT results in underdiagnosis, inadequate risk assessment and probable cost increases of (pre)diabetes in Han Chinese over 40 years: a population-based prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the influence by not performing an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in Han Chinese over 40 years.

DESIGN

Overall, 6682 participants were included in the prospective cohort study and were followed up for 3 years.

METHODS

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h post-load plasma glucose (2h-PG), FPG and 2h-PG (OGTT), and HbA1c testing using World Health Organization (WHO) or American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria were employed for strategy analysis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of diabetes is 12.4% (95% CI: 11.6-13.3), while the prevalence of prediabetes is 34.1% (95% CI: 32.9-35.3) and 56.5% (95% CI: 55.2-57.8) using WHO and ADA criteria, respectively. 2h-PG determined more diabetes individuals than FPG and HbA1c. The testing cost per true positive case of OGTT is close to FPG and less than 2h-PG or HbA1c. FPG, 2h-PG and HbA1c strategies would increase costs from complications for false-positive (FP) or false-negative (FN) results compared with OGTT. Moreover, the least individuals identified as normal by OGTT at baseline developed (pre)diabetes, and the most prediabetes individuals identified by HbA1c or FPG using ADA criteria developed diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of isolated impaired glucose tolerance and isolated 2-h post-load diabetes were high, and the majority of individuals with (pre)diabetes were undetected in Chinese Han population. Not performing an OGTT results in underdiagnosis, inadequate developing risk assessment and probable cost increases of (pre)diabetes in Han Chinese over 40 years and great consideration should be given to OGTT in detecting (pre)diabetes in this population. Further population-based prospective cohort study of longer-term effects is necessary to investigate the risk assessment and cost of (pre)diabetes.

The FTO rs9939609 "A" allele is associated with impaired fasting glucose and insulin resistance in Emirati population

BACKGROUND

Fat mass and obesity-associated protein gene variants have shown diverse influence on body weight and metabolism across different populations. Overweight, obesity and metabolic syndrome are multifactorial major health problems in the UAE and worldwide. Insulin resistance represents the link between overweight and development of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus. We investigated two (FTO) variants in Emirati population, in relation to insulin resistance and different parameters of metabolic syndrome.

METHODS

We recruited 259 Emiratis through the UAE National Diabetes and Lifestyle Project. Ethical approval was obtained. Besides basic data collection, venous blood samples were collected. Fasting blood glucose, Lipid profile, and insulin levels were measured. Genotyping for (FTO) rs9939609 (A>T) and rs9930506 (G>A) were performed using real time-PCR. Insulin resistance were identified using HOMA2-IR calculation; with a cut-off point of 1.4 for female and 1.18 for male subjects.

RESULTS

The study included 259 Emiratis (age range 30-53 years, mean 41.76 years, 54.4% females), 24.5% are diabetic and 30.8% are hypertensive, with body mass index of 28.4 ± 5.9 and 28.7 ± 5.7 kg/m² in female and male subjects, respectively. Homozygous A of rs9939609 showed significantly higher fasting glucose compared to other genotypes (p = 0.04) with a trend of higher insulin level and HOMA-2IR. The A/A diabetic patients (n = 13) showed significantly higher insulin levels compared to other genotypes. G allele of rs9930506 showed a trend of higher fasting glucose and HOMA-2IR, but lower insulin level and HbA1c. No association of genotypes was detected with other components of metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSION

There is an association of FTO rs9939609 A/A genotype and impaired fasting glucose and insulin resistance. Homozygous A genotype diabetic patients may be more vulnerable to blood glucose fluctuation. Focused genotyping can help the health care providers to identify high risk groups of both normal population and diabetic patients to intervene accordingly.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Diabetes Mellitus in Nigeria: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

There has been no nationwide health (diabetes) survey in Nigeria since 1992, when a diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence of 2.2% was reported. We aimed to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for DM in Nigeria by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

We searched Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, PapersFirst, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Bioline, African Journals Online, Institute of Scientific Information, and Google Scholar from the year 1990 to 2017. Using MeSH headings, the terms "diabetes mellitus," "risk factors," "prevalence," and "Nigeria" as well as variations thereof were searched for. The last search was performed on 26 November 2017. We only included studies that utilized the random plasma glucose test, the fasting plasma glucose test, the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), or HbA1c to diagnose DM. A total of 23 studies (n = 14,650 persons) were evaluated. A random effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of DM. We estimated the overall pooled prevalence of DM and subgroup-specific DM prevalences while accounting for inter-study and intra-study variability/heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The overall pooled prevalence of DM was 5.77% (95% CI 4.3-7.1). The pooled prevalences of DM in the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria were 3.0% (95% CI 1.7-4.3) in the north-west, 5.9% (95% CI 2.4-9.4) in the north-east, 3.8% (95% CI 2.9-4.7) in the north-central zone, 5.5% (95% CI 4.0-7.1) in the south-west, 4.6% (95% CI 3.4-5.9) in the south-east, and 9.8% (95% CI 7.2-12.4) in the south-south zone. Risk factors for the pooled prevalence of DM were a family history of DM (4.6%; 95% CI 3.5-5.6); urban dwelling (6.0%; 95% CI 4.3-7.8); unhealthy dietary habits (8.0%; 95% CI 5.4-10.5); cigarette smoking (4.4%; 95% CI 1.3-10.2); older age (6.6%; 95% CI 4.5-8.7); physical inactivity (4.8%; 95% CI 3.2-6.4); and obesity (5.3%; 95% CI 3.8-6.9).

CONCLUSION

There has been an increase in the prevalence of DM in Nigeria. All regions of the country have been affected, with the highest prevalence seen in the south-south geopolitical zone. Urban dwelling, physical inactivity, advanced age, and unhealthy diet are important risk factors for DM among Nigerians. A national diabetes care and prevention policy is highly recommended.

Inpatient Glucose Values: Determining the Nondiabetic Range and Use in Identifying Patients at High Risk for Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Many individuals with diabetes remain undiagnosed, leading to delays in treatment and higher risk for subsequent diabetes complications. Despite recommendations for diabetes screening in high-risk groups, the optimal approach is not known. We evaluated the utility of inpatient glucose levels as an opportunistic screening tool for identifying patients at high risk for diabetes.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined 462,421 patients in the US Department of Veterans Affairs healthcare system, hospitalized on medical/surgical services in 2000-2010, for ≥3 days, with ≥2 inpatient random plasma glucose (RPG) measurements. All had continuity of care: ≥1 primary care visit and ≥1 glucose measurement within 2 years before hospitalization and yearly for ≥3 years after discharge. Glucose levels during hospitalization and incidence of diabetes within 3 years after discharge in patients without diabetes were evaluated.

RESULTS

Patients had a mean age of 65.0 years, body mass index of 29.9 kg/m², and were 96% male, 71% white, and 18% black. Pre-existing diabetes was present in 39.4%, 1.3% were diagnosed during hospitalization, 8.1% were diagnosed 5 years after discharge, and 51.3% were never diagnosed (NonDM). The NonDM group had the lowest mean hospital RPG value (112 mg/dL [6.2 mmol/L]). Having at least 2 RPG values >140 mg/dL (>7.8 mmol/L), the 95th percentile of NonDM hospital glucose, provided 81% specificity for identifying incident diabetes within 3 years after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for diabetes could be considered in patients with at least 2 hospital glucose values at/above the 95th percentile of the nondiabetic range (141 mg/dL [7.8 mmol/L]).

Value-Based Payments and Incentives to Improve Care: A Case Study of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Medicare Advantage

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the impact of increased glycated hemoglobin (A1C) monitoring and treatment intensification for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) on quality measures and reimbursement within the Medicare Advantage Star (MA Star) program.

METHODS

The primary endpoint was the share of patients with T2D with adequate A1C control (A1C ≤ 9%). We conducted a simulation of how increased A1C monitoring and treatment intensification affected this end point using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and clinical trials. Using the estimated changes in measured A_1C levels, we calculated corresponding changes in the plan-level A_1C quality measure, overall star rating, and reimbursement.

RESULTS

At baseline, 24.4% of patients with T2D in the average plan had poor A1C control. The share of plans receiving the highest A1C rating increased from 27% at baseline to 49.5% (increased monitoring), 36.2% (intensification), and 57.1% (joint implementation of both interventions). However, overall star ratings increased for only 3.6%, 1.3%, and 4.8% of plans, respectively, by intervention. Projected per-member per-year rebate increases under the MA Star program were $7.71 (monitoring), $2.66 (intensification), and $10.55 (joint implementation).

CONCLUSIONS

The simulation showed that increased monitoring and treatment intensification would improve A1C levels; however, the resulting average increases in reimbursement would be small.

Medical Care Expenditures for Individuals with Prediabetes: The Potential Cost Savings in Reducing the Risk of Developing Diabetes

The United States has 86 million adults with prediabetes. Individuals with prediabetes can prevent or delay the development of type 2 diabetes through lifestyle modifications such as participation in the National Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), thereby mitigating the medical and economic burdens associated with diabetes. A cohort analysis of a commercially insured population was conducted using individual-level claims data from Truven Health MarketScan^® Lab Database to identify adults with prediabetes, track whether they develop diabetes, and compare medical expenditures for those who are newly diagnosed with diabetes to those who are not. This study then illustrates how reducing the risk of developing diabetes by participation in an evidence-based lifestyle change program could yield both positive net savings on medical care expenditures and return on investment (ROI). Annual expenditures are found to be nearly one third higher for those who develop diabetes in subsequent years relative to those who do not transition from prediabetes to diabetes, with an average difference of $2671 per year. At that cost differential, the 3-year ROI for a National DPP is estimated to be as high as 42%. The results show the importance and economic benefits of participation in lifestyle intervention programs to prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes.

Overcoming the Challenges in Implementing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Prevention Programs Can Decrease the Burden on Healthcare Costs in the United States

Theoretically, identifying prediabetics would reduce the diabetic burden on the American healthcare system. As we expect the prevalence rate of prediabetes to continue increasing, we wonder if there is a better way of managing prediabetics and reducing the economic cost on the healthcare system. To do so, understanding the demographics and behavioral factors of known prediabetics was important. For this purpose, responses of prediabetic/borderline diabetes patients from the most recent publicly available 2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey were analyzed. The findings showed that there was a correlation between household income, geographic residence in the US, and risk for developing diabetes mellitus type 2, aside from the accepted risk factors such as high BMI. In conclusion, implementation of the National Diabetes Prevention Program is a rational way of reducing the burden of DM on the healthcare system both economically and by prevalence. However, difficulties arise in ensuring patient compliance to the program and providing access to all regions and communities of the United States. Technology incorporation in the NDPP program would maintain a low-cost implementation by the healthcare system, be affordable and accessible for all participants, and decrease economic burden attributed to diabetes mellitus.

Current status of glucose test prescription for hypertensive outpatients

OBJECTIVES

The prescription of glucose test for essential hypertensive patients is estimated to be very low in cardiology clinics, but it has not been well studied. The aim of the present study aimed to investigate glucose test prescription for the hypertensive outpatients.

METHODS

Five thousand two hundred and forty hypertensive outpatients without previous known diabetes were recruited consecutively by cardiologists from >90 hospitals. Blood glucose prescription records were collected by special investigators.

RESULTS

Of the 5240 hypertensive outpatients recruited, only 258 (4.92%) were prescribed glucose tests, and 12.17% and 42.61% of them were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance, respectively. Patients' hypertension stage, cardiovascular disease history, diabetes family history, dyslipidemia, and hospital level were associated with higher odds of glucose tests prescription.

CONCLUSION

Glucose tests were poorly prescribed for hypertensive outpatients in China. It was highly recommended to raise cardiologists' awareness to prescribe glucose tests for hypertensive outpatients who were with high cardiovascular risk factors.

Type 2 Diabetes: Why We Are Winning the Battle but Losing the War? 2015 Kelly West Award Lecture

Diabetes is among the biggest of the 21st-century global health challenges. In the U.S. and other high-income countries, thanks to investments in science, dedication to implementing these findings, and measurement of quality of care, there have been improvements in diabetes management and declines in rate of diabetes complications and mortality. This good news, however, is overshadowed by the ever-increasing absolute numbers of people with diabetes and its complications and the unprecedented growth of diabetes in low- and middle-income countries of the world. To comprehensively win the war against diabetes requires 1) concerted attention to prevention and 2) expansion of global research to better inform population-level policies to curb diabetes but also to better understand individual- and population-level variations in pathophysiology and phenotypes globally so that prevention and treatment can be tailored. For example, preliminary data show that thin people in low- and middle-income countries such as India commonly experience type 2 diabetes. Global studies comparing these thin Asian Indians with other high-risk groups such as Pima Indians, a population with a high mean BMI, suggest that type 2 diabetes may not be a single pathophysiological entity. Pima Indians may represent the well-studied phenotype of poor insulin action (type 2A), whereas Asian Indians represent the grossly understudied phenotype of poor insulin secretion (type 2B). This has major implications for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment and highlights the mismatch between where diabetes burdens occur (i.e., low- and middle-income countries) and where research happens (i.e., high-income countries). Correcting this imbalance will advance our knowledge and arsenal to win the global war against diabetes.

Overweight and abdominal obesity as determinants of undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes are an increasing pandemic globally and often remain undiagnosed long after onset in low-income settings. The objective of this study is to assess the determinants and prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes among adults in Bangladesh.

METHODS

In an exploratory study, we performed oral glucose tolerance test on 1243 adults ≥20 years of age from urban Mirpur, Dhaka (n = 518) and rural Matlab, Chandpur (n = 725) who had never been diagnosed with diabetes or pre-diabetes. We collected data on socioeconomic, demographic, past medical history, physical activity, and measured weight, height, waist and hip circumferences, and blood pressure. Risk factors associated with undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes were examined using a multiple logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Overall prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes was 6.6 % (95 % CI 5.3, 8.1) and 16.6 % (14.5, 18.7) respectively, with both being significantly higher in urban than rural populations (diabetes 12.2 % vs 2.6 % respectively, p < 0.000; pre-diabetes 21.2 % vs 13.2 %, p < 0.001). After adjustment the variables, urban residence (OR 2.5 [95 % CI 1.02, 5.9]), age group 40-59 y (2.9 [1.7-5.2]), ≥60 y (8.1 [2.8-23.8]), overweight (2.2 [1.3-3.9]), abdominal obesity (3.3 [1.8-6.0]) and high WHR 5.6 (2.7-11.9) were all significant predictors of diabetes. Significant predictors of pre-diabetes included age group 40-59 (1.6 [1.1-2.2]), female sex (1.5 [1.0-2.2]), abdominal obesity (1.7 [1.2-2.4]) and high WHR (1.6 [1.2-2.3]).

CONCLUSION

Both overweight and abdominal obesity contribute to the hidden public health threat of undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes. Awareness raising and screening of high risk groups combined with a tailored approach are essential for halting the epidemic of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Bangladesh.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Short Message Service Intervention to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes from Impaired Glucose Tolerance

Aims. To investigate the costs and cost-effectiveness of a short message service (SMS) intervention to prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Methods. A Markov model was developed to simulate the cost and effectiveness outcomes of the SMS intervention and usual clinical practice from the health provider's perspective. The direct programme costs and the two-year SMS intervention costs were evaluated in subjects with IGT. All costs were expressed in 2011 US dollars. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated as cost per T2DM onset prevented, cost per life year gained, and cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results. Within the two-year trial period, the net intervention cost of the SMS group was $42.03 per subject. The SMS intervention managed to reduce 5.05% onset of diabetes, resulting in saving $118.39 per subject over two years. In the lifetime model, the SMS intervention dominated the control by gaining an additional 0.071 QALY and saving $1020.35 per person. The SMS intervention remained dominant in all sensitivity analyses. Conclusions. The SMS intervention for IGT subjects had the superiority of lower monetary cost and a considerable improvement in preventing or delaying the T2DM onset. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01556880.

Effect of mobile reminders on screening yield during opportunistic screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus in a primary health care setting: A randomized trial

Objective. We wanted to study whether mobile reminders increased follow-up for definitive tests resulting in higher screening yield during opportunistic screening for diabetes. Methods. This was a facility-based parallel randomized controlled trial during routine outpatient department hours in a primary health care setting in Puducherry, India (2014). We offered random blood glucose testing to non-pregnant non-diabetes adults with age >30 years (667 total, 390 consented); eligible outpatients (random blood glucose ≥ 6.1 mmol/l, n = 268) were requested to follow-up for definitive tests (fasting and postprandial blood glucose). Eligible outpatients either received (intervention arm, n = 133) or did not receive mobile reminder (control arm, n = 135) to follow-up for definitive tests. We measured capillary blood glucose using a glucometer to make epidemiological diagnosis of diabetes. The trial was registered with Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI/2014/10/005138). Results. 85.7% of outpatients in intervention arm returned for definitive test when compared to 53.3% in control arm [Relative Risk = 1.61, (0.95 Confidence Interval — 1.35, 1.91)]. Screening yield in intervention and control arm was 18.6% and 10.2% respectively. Etiologic fraction was 45.2% and number needed to screen was 11.9. Conclusion. In countries like India, which is emerging as the diabetes capital of the world, considering the wide prevalent use of mobile phones, and real life resource limited settings in which this study was carried out, mobile reminders during opportunistic screening in primary health care setting improve screening yield of diabetes.

•

First RCT to determine the effect of mobile reminders on screening yield for diabetes mellitus.

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Operational research conducted in real world primary health care setting.

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Outpatients with random blood glucose ≥ 6.1 mmol/l among adults >30y were eligible for definitive tests.

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Mobile reminders for eligible outpatients was introduced as a reminder system.

Prevalence of impaired glucose metabolism and potential predictors: a rapid appraisal among ≥ 45 years old residents of southern Tajikistan

BACKGROUND

An estimated 2% of all deaths in Tajikistan can be attributed to diabetes but reliable data are scarce for the country and across Central Asia. We assessed the prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes and associated predictors among residents aged ≥ 45 years in two districts in southern Tajikistan.

METHODS

A population-representative survey following the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance and including a two-stage cluster sampling was conducted. Enrolled participants were asked about risk factors for diabetes, and blood pressure, height and weight were measured. The blood glucose level was determined after overnight fasting, and the 2 h oral glucose tolerance test was performed if indicated.

RESULTS

Complete datasets were available for 584 out of 672 study participants. One third of the cohort was male and half were 45-54 years old. Overall, 21.2% of the participants were found to be diabetic, 5.1% had impaired glucose tolerance and 4.3% impaired fasting glucose. An elevated body mass index ≥ 25 was observed in 61.5% of the cohort and an elevated blood pressure in 45.6% (systolic, cut-off 140 mm Hg) and 52.3% (diastolic, cut-off 90 mm Hg) respectively. Half of the participants classified as diabetic were aware of their status.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired glucose tolerance and overweight are common among elderly residents of southern Tajikistan. Primary health care services should be strengthened to improve early detection and ensure adequate treatment of diabetes and quality of care. Community-based awareness rising about available peripheral services is crucial.

Therapeutic Use of Metformin in Prediabetes and Diabetes Prevention

People with elevated, non-diabetic, levels of blood glucose are at risk of progressing to clinical type 2 diabetes and are commonly termed 'prediabetic'. The term prediabetes usually refers to high-normal fasting plasma glucose (impaired fasting glucose) and/or plasma glucose 2 h following a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (impaired glucose tolerance). Current US guidelines consider high-normal HbA1c to also represent a prediabetic state. Individuals with prediabetic levels of dysglycaemia are already at elevated risk of damage to the microvasculature and macrovasculature, resembling the long-term complications of diabetes. Halting or reversing the progressive decline in insulin sensitivity and β-cell function holds the key to achieving prevention of type 2 diabetes in at-risk subjects. Lifestyle interventions aimed at inducing weight loss, pharmacologic treatments (metformin, thiazolidinediones, acarbose, basal insulin and drugs for weight loss) and bariatric surgery have all been shown to reduce the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes in prediabetic subjects. However, lifestyle interventions are difficult for patients to maintain and the weight loss achieved tends to be regained over time. Metformin enhances the action of insulin in liver and skeletal muscle, and its efficacy for delaying or preventing the onset of diabetes has been proven in large, well-designed, randomised trials, such as the Diabetes Prevention Program and other studies. Decades of clinical use have demonstrated that metformin is generally well-tolerated and safe. We have reviewed in detail the evidence base supporting the therapeutic use of metformin for diabetes prevention.

Increased cardiovascular disease, resource use, and costs before the clinical diagnosis of diabetes in veterans in the southeastern U.S

IMPORTANCE

Screening for diabetes might be more widespread if adverse associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD), resource use, and costs were known to occur earlier than conventional clinical diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to determine whether adverse effects associated with diabetes begin prior to clinical diagnosis.

DESIGN

Veterans with diabetes were matched 1:2 with controls by follow-up, age, race/ethnicity, gender, and VA facility. CVD was obtained from ICD-9 codes, and resource use and costs from VA datasets.

SETTING

VA facilities in SC, GA, and AL.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with and without diagnosed diabetes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnosed CVD, resource use, and costs.

RESULTS

In this study, the 2,062 diabetic patients and 4,124 controls were 63 years old on average, 99 % male, and 29 % black; BMI was 30.8 in diabetic patients vs. 27.8 in controls (p<0.001). CVD prevalence was higher and there were more outpatient visits in Year -4 before diagnosis through Year +4 after diagnosis among diabetic vs. control patients (all p<0.01); in Year -2, CVD prevalence was 31 % vs. 24 %, and outpatient visits were 22 vs. 19 per year, respectively. Total VA costs/year/veteran were higher in diabetic than control patients from Year -4 ($4,083 vs. $2,754) through Year +5 ($8,347 vs. $5,700) (p<0.003) for each, reflecting underlying increases in outpatient, inpatient, and pharmacy costs (p<0.05 for each). Regression analysis showed that diabetes contributed an average of $1,748/year to costs, independent of CVD (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

VA costs per veteran are higher--over $1,000/year before and $2,000/year after diagnosis of diabetes--due to underlying increases in outpatient, inpatient, and pharmacy costs, greater number of outpatient visits, and increased CVD. Moreover, adverse associations with veterans' health and the VA healthcare system occur early in the natural history of the disease, several years before diabetes is diagnosed. Since adverse associations begin before diabetes is recognized, greater consideration should be given to systematic screening in order to permit earlier detection and initiation of preventive management. Keeping frequency of CVD and marginal costs in line with those of patients before diabetes is currently diagnosed has the potential to save up to $2 billion a year.

Prediabetes and lifestyle modification: time to prevent a preventable disease

More than 100 million Americans have prediabetes or diabetes. Prediabetes is a condition in which individuals have blood glucose levels higher than normal but not high enough to be classified as diabetes. People with prediabetes have an increased risk of Type 2 diabetes. An estimated 34% of adults have prediabetes. Prediabetes is now recognized as a reversible condition that increases an individual's risk for development of diabetes. Lifestyle risk factors for prediabetes include overweight and physical inactivity.Increasing awareness and risk stratification of individuals with prediabetes may help physicians understand potential interventions that may help decrease the percentage of patients in their panels in whom diabetes develops. If untreated, 37% of the individuals with prediabetes may have diabetes in 4 years. Lifestyle intervention may decrease the percentage of prediabetic patients in whom diabetes develops to 20%.Long-term data also suggest that lifestyle intervention may decrease the risk of prediabetes progressing to diabetes for as long as 10 years. To prevent 1 case of diabetes during a 3-year period, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle intervention program. In addition, recent data suggest that the difference in direct and indirect costs to care for a patient with prediabetes vs a patient with diabetes may be as much as $7000 per year. Investment in a diabetes prevention program now may have a substantial return on investment in the future and help prevent a preventable disease.

We can change the natural history of type 2 diabetes

As diabetes develops, we currently waste the first ∼10 years of the natural history. If we found prediabetes and early diabetes when they first presented and treated them more effectively, we could prevent or delay the progression of hyperglycemia and the development of complications. Evidence for this comes from trials where lifestyle change and/or glucose-lowering medications decreased progression from prediabetes to diabetes. After withdrawal of these interventions, there was no "catch-up"-cumulative development of diabetes in the previously treated groups remained less than in control subjects. Moreover, achieving normal glucose levels even transiently during the trials was associated with a substantial reduction in subsequent development of diabetes. These findings indicate that we can change the natural history through routine screening to find prediabetes and early diabetes, combined with management aimed to keep glucose levels as close to normal as possible, without hypoglycemia. We should also test the hypothesis with a randomized controlled trial.

Noninvasive skin fluorescence spectroscopy for detection of abnormal glucose tolerance

The ENGINE study evaluated noninvasive skin fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS) for detection of abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT). The AGT detection performance of SFS was compared to fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1C (A1C). The study was a head-to-head comparison of SFS to FPG and A1C in an at-risk population of 507 subjects, with no prior diagnosis of diabetes, each of whom received a 75 g, two-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Subjects were measured by SFS on multiple days in fasting and non-fasting states. SFS data were acquired and analyzed with the SCOUT DS® device (VeraLight, Albuquerque, NM, USA). Disease truth was AGT, defined as OGTT ≥ 7.8 mmol/L. Sensitivity, false positive rate (FPR), ROC area, and equal error rate (EER) for detection of AGT were computed. The reproducibility of SFS and FPG was assessed. The AGT sensitivity of SFS at the device's recommended screening threshold of 50 was 75.2%, higher than that of FPG (thresholds of 5.6 mmol/L or 6.1 mmol/L) and A1C (thresholds of 5.7% or 6.0%). The SFS FPR was 42.1%, comparable to an A1C threshold of 5.7% (FPR = 43.5%). The EERs of SFS, FPG and A1C were similar, as were the partial ROC areas for FPRs of 20-50%. The reproducibility of SFS was 7.7% versus 8.1% for FPG. SFS had similar AGT detection performance to FPG and A1C and is a viable alternative to screening individuals for AGT.

The effectiveness of screening for diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a community pharmacy setting

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease including diabetes have seen a large rise in prevalence in recent years. This has prompted interest in prevention through the identifying individuals at risk of both diabetes and cardiovascular disease and has seen increased investment in screening interventions taking place in primary care. Community pharmacies have become increasingly involved in the provision of such interventions and this systematic review and meta-analysis aims to gather and analyse the existing literature assessing community pharmacy based screening for risk factors for diabetes and those with a high cardiovascular disease risk.

Methods

We conducted systematic searches of electronic databases using MeSH and free text terms from 1950 to March 2012. For our analysis two outcomes were assessed. They were the percentage of those screened who were referred for further assessment by primary care and the uptake of this referral.

Results

Sixteen studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria comprising 108,414 participants screened. There was significant heterogeneity for all included outcomes. Consequently we have not presented summary statistics and present forest plots with I² and p values to describe heterogeneity. We found that all included studies suffered from high rates of attrition between pharmacy screening and follow up. We have also identified a strong trend towards higher rates for referral in more recent studies.

Conclusions

Our results show that pharmacies are feasible sites for screening for diabetes and those at risk of cardiovascular disease. A significant number of previously unknown cases of cardiovascular disease risk factors such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes are identified, however a significant number of referred participants at high risk do not attend their practitioner for follow up. Research priorities should include methods of increasing uptake to follow up testing and early intervention, to maximise the efficacy of screening interventions based in community pharmacies.

Evaluation of two screening methods for undiagnosed diabetes in China: an cost-effectiveness study

AIMS

To evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of two screening methods to identify undiagnosed diabetes at primary care settings among a Chinese population.

METHODS

Two screening methods using a fasting capillary glucose (FCG) test or a Chinese diabetes risk score (DRS) at primary care settings followed by diagnostic tests were compared. The performance of FCG and DRS was evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The main economic outcome measures were the total cost of screening per 1000 persons, proportion of undiagnosed diabetes detected, and cost per undiagnosed diabetes identified from the societal perspective.

RESULTS

Among all participants, 14.6% (1349/9232) had undiagnosed diabetes defined by fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0mmol/l and/or 2h plasma glucose ≥ 11.1mmol/l and/or hemoglobin A1c ≥ 6.5%. At the optimal cutoff point of 6.1mmol/l for FCG and 14 for DRS, the sensitivity was 65.1% and 65.8%, and specificity was 72.4% and 55.2%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 75.3% for FCG and 63.7% for DRS (P<0.001). Based on the input costs, the total cost of screening 1000 persons was ¥64,000 ($9143) for FCG and ¥81,000 ($11,571) for DRS. The average cost per case identified was ¥674 ($96) for FCG at cutoff point of 6.1mmol/l and ¥844 ($121) for DRS at score of 14. The incremental cost per case identified was ¥17,000 ($2429) for DRS compared to FCG. The dominance relations between strategies remained with the changed in sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

As a first-line screening tool for undiagnosed diabetes, the FCG test performed better than the DRS in primary care settings in China. The non-invasive and layperson-oriented DRS was feasible and detected more cases but more expensive. No strategy has strong dominance that was both more effective and less costly. The favorable strategy will depend on if the purpose of the screening program is to identify more cases or to have lower cost per case.

Can costs of screening for hypertension and diabetes in dental care and follow-up in primary health care be predicted?

AIM

The purpose was to assess the direct costs of screening for high blood pressure and blood glucose in dental care and of follow-up in primary health care and, based on these data, arrive at a prediction function. Study population. All subjects coming for routine check-ups at three dental health clinics were invited to have blood pressure or blood glucose measurements; 1,623 agreed to participate. Subjects screening positive were referred to their primary health care centres for follow-up.

METHODS

Information on individual screening time was registered during the screening process, and information on accountable time, costs for the screening staff, overhead costs, and analysis costs for the screening was obtained from the participating dental clinics. The corresponding items in primary care, i.e. consultation time, number of follow-up appointments, accountable time, costs for the follow-up staff, overhead costs, and analysis costs during follow-up were obtained from the primary health care centres.

RESULTS

The total screening costs per screened subject ranged from €7.4 to €9.2 depending on subgroups, corresponding to 16.7-42.7 staff minutes. The corresponding follow-up costs were €57-€91. The total resource used for screening and follow-up per diagnosis was 563-3,137 staff minutes. There was a strong relationship between resource use and numbers needed to screen (NNS) to find one diagnosis (P < 0.0001, degree of explanation 99%).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening and follow-up costs were moderate and appear to be lower for combined screening of blood pressure and blood glucose than for separate screening. There was a strong relationship between resource use and NNS.

Noninvasive skin fluorescence spectroscopy is comparable to hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose for detection of abnormal glucose tolerance

AIM

We compare performance of noninvasive skin fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and hemoglobin A1c (A1C) for detection of abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT).

METHODS

The NSEEDS trial evaluated SFS, FPG, and A1C in an at-risk population of 479 previously undiagnosed subjects from nine US centers, each of whom received a 75 g, 2 h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Skin fluorescence spectra were collected and analyzed with SCOUT DS® devices. Disease truth was AGT, defined as OGTT ≥140 mg/dl. Abnormal glucose tolerance sensitivity, false positive rate (FPR), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were computed for each measurement technique. Skin fluorescence spectroscopy reproducibility was also assessed.

RESULTS

The AGT sensitivity of SFS was 68.2%, higher than that of FPG (thresholds of 100 and 110 mg/dl) and A1C (thresholds of 5.7% and 6.0%). The FPR of SFS was 37.7%, comparable to A1C at the 5.7% threshold (30.7%). Partial ROC areas of SFS, FPG, and A1C were similar for FPRs of 20-50% (average sensitivities of 64.0%, 59.0%, and 68.6%, respectively). The interday coefficient of variation for SFS was 7.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Skin fluorescence spectroscopy has similar screening performance to FPG and A1C and is a viable approach for detection of AGT.

Screening for diabetes and prediabetes should be cost-saving in patients at high risk

OBJECTIVE

Although screening for diabetes and prediabetes is recommended, it is not clear how best or whom to screen. We therefore compared the economics of screening according to baseline risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Five screening tests were performed in 1,573 adults without known diabetes--random plasma/capillary glucose, plasma/capillary glucose 1 h after 50-g oral glucose (any time, without previous fast, plasma glucose 1 h after a 50-g oral glucose challenge [GCTpl]/capillary glucose 1 h after a 50-g oral glucose challenge [GCTcap]), and A1C--and a definitive 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. Costs of screening included the following: costs of testing (screen plus oral glucose tolerance test, if screen is positive); costs for false-negative results; and costs of treatment of true-positive results with metformin, all over the course of 3 years. We compared costs for no screening, screening everyone for diabetes or high-risk prediabetes, and screening those with risk factors based on age, BMI, blood pressure, waist circumference, lipids, or family history of diabetes.

RESULTS

Compared with no screening, cost-savings would be obtained largely from screening those at higher risk, including those with BMI >35 kg/m(2), systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg, or age >55 years, with differences of up to -46% of health system costs for screening for diabetes and -21% for screening for dysglycemia110, respectively (all P < 0.01). GCTpl would be the least expensive screening test for most high-risk groups for this population over the course of 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

From a health economics perspective, screening for diabetes and high-risk prediabetes should target patients at higher risk, particularly those with BMI >35 kg/m(2), systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg, or age >55 years, for whom screening can be most cost-saving. GCTpl is generally the least expensive test in high-risk groups and should be considered for routine use as an opportunistic screen in these groups.

Factors affecting diabetic screening behavior of Korean adults: a multilevel analysis

PURPOSE

We investigated the role of individual and community level factors on diabetes screening test behavior.

METHODS

We used individual-level data from 170,193 adults aged 30 years or older who were not diagnosed with diabetes and participated in the 2009 community health survey. Community-level data includes 253 communities and were collected from various national statistics. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

The rate of diabetes screening within the year prior to this study was 53.2%. Community variance of Model I, Model II and Model III was 0.236, 0.252 and 0.238, respectively. The proportional change in variance of Model II and Model III was -6.8% and -1.2%. The odds ratio for participation of diabetic screening of areas with bottom financial independence compared to areas with top was 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.96); the odds ratio of areas with top internist compared to areas with bottom was 1.15 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.31).

CONCLUSION

This study identified a contextual effect influencing the participation of Korean adults in diabetes screening. It is necessary to develop specific policies that consider not only individual factors, but also community factors relating to individual behaviors to increase the likelihood of diabetes screening.

Screening for HbA1c-defined prediabetes and diabetes in an at-risk greek population: performance comparison of random capillary glucose, the ADA diabetes risk test and skin fluorescence spectroscopy

BACKGROUND

We examined the accuracy of random capillary glucose (RCG) and two noninvasive screening methods, the ADA diabetes risk test (DRT) and skin fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS) as measured by Scout DS for detecting HbA1c-defined dysglycemia or type 2 diabetes in an at-risk cohort.

METHODS

Subjects were recruited at two clinical sites for a single non-fasting visit. Each subject had measurements of height, weight and waist circumference. A diabetes score was calculated from skin fluorescence measured on the left forearm. A finger prick was done to measure RCG and HbA1c (A1C). Health questionnaires were completed for the DRT. Increasing dysglycemia was defined as A1C ≥ 5.7% (39 mmol/mol) or ≥ 6.0% (42 mmol/mol). Type 2 diabetes was defined as A1C ≥ 6.5% (47.5 mmol/mol).

RESULTS

398 of 409 subjects had complete data for analysis with means for age, body mass index, and waist of 52 years, 27 kg/m(2) and 90 cm. 51% were male. Prevalence of A1C ≥ 5.7%, ≥ 6.0% and ≥ 6.5% were 54%, 34% and 12%, respectively. Areas under the curve (AUC) for detection of increasing levels dysglycemia or diabetes for RCG were 63%, 66% and 72%, for the ADA DRT the AUCs were 75%, 76% and 81% and for SFS the AUCs were 82%, 84% and 90%, respectively. For each level of dysglycemia or diabetes, the SFS AUC was significantly higher than RCG or the ADA DRT.

CONCLUSIONS

The noninvasive skin fluorescence spectroscopy measurement outperformed both RCG and the ADA DRT for detection of A1C-defined dysglycemia or diabetes in an at-risk cohort.

Screening blood donors for diabetes: analysis of use, accuracy, and cost

BACKGROUND

The objective was to determine if a free, voluntary diabetes screening program as a part of the blood donation process might be cost-effective.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

During the first 6 months of the program, 26,415 donors were screened using a single random plasma glucose (RPG) level. All donors were asked to eat before donation. Low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups were formed based on RPG levels (<140, 140-200, and >200 mg/dL). Contact with a telephone questionnaire was made with 139 of 178 (78%) of the persons in the high-risk group with 33 new cases of diabetes diagnosed by the donor's physician and 26 donors indicating that they were not diagnosed with diabetes. Sex- and age-matched donors in the low- and moderate-risk groups were contacted and administered the same questionnaire.

RESULTS

The three risk groups were similar, except for body mass index (28.1 ± 5.4 kg/m2 vs. 29.9 ± 5.5 kg/m2 vs. 32.7 ± 5.6 kg/m2 , p < 0.001). The discriminative effectiveness of screening was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AROC) curve. The AROC curve was 0.950 (95% confidence interval, 0.920-0.979) for the identification of diabetes. Using a RPG cutoff of 200 mg/dL, sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 82%, and positive predictive value was 56%. Cost analyses showed that the mean cost to screen, per donor, was less than $1. Cost per case identified was estimated to be less than $500 for a RPG cutoff of 200 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening during the blood donation process appears to be accurate, convenient, and inexpensive.

An opportunistic pre-diabetes screening program offered with existing hypertension screening

Diabetes mellitus refers to a group of metabolic diseases that share the hallmark characteristic of hyperglycemia. Generally, Diabetes is categorized as type I, or type II. Type I results from the body's failure to synthesize insulin, and requires insulin injections. Type II, also known as adult-onset or non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM), occurs when the body's cells fail to use insulin properly due to a defective insulin receptor, and may also be combined with a relatively reduced insulin secretion. Type II can be managed with healthy lifestyle habits and early detection of high sugar levels. Most local health departments across New York State offer hypertension screening but no pre-diabetes screening programs. The US preventive Services Task Force recommends that asymptomatic adults with sustained blood pressure greater than 135/80 mm Hg should be screened for type II diabetes. Since high blood sugar levels can be controlled, and in some cases reduced, there exist strong benefits in offering pre-diabetic screening for individuals who are hypertensive.

Cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for identifying pediatric diabetes mellitus and dysglycemia

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of screening strategies for identifying children with type 2 diabetes mellitus and dysglycemia (prediabetes/diabetes).

DESIGN

Cost simulation study.

SETTING

A one-time US screening program.

STUDY PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2.5 million children aged 10 to 17 years.

INTERVENTION

Screening strategies for identifying diabetes and dysglycemia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Effectiveness (proportion of cases identified), total costs (direct and indirect), and efficiency (cost per case identified) of each screening strategy based on test performance data from a pediatric cohort and cost data from Medicare and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

RESULTS

In the base-case model, 500 and 400 000 US adolescents had diabetes and dysglycemia, respectively. For diabetes, the cost per case was extremely high ($312 000-$831 000 per case identified) because of the low prevalence of disease. For dysglycemia, the cost per case was in a more reasonable range. For dysglycemia, preferred strategies were the 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (100% effectiveness; $390 per case), 1-hour glucose challenge test (63% effectiveness; $571), random glucose test (55% effectiveness; $498), or a hemoglobin A1c threshold of 5.5% (45% effectiveness; $763). Hemoglobin A1c thresholds of 5.7% and 6.5% were the least effective and least efficient (ranges, 7%-32% and $938-$3370) of all strategies evaluated. Sensitivity analyses for diabetes revealed that disease prevalence was a major driver of cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses for dysglycemia did not lead to appreciable changes in overall rankings among tests.

CONCLUSIONS

For diabetes, the cost per case is extremely high because of the low prevalence of the disease in the pediatric population. Screening for diabetes could become more cost-effective if dysglycemia is explicitly considered as a screening outcome.

Noninvasive type 2 diabetes screening: clinical evaluation of SCOUT DS in an Asian Indian cohort

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the noninvasive, point-of-care diabetes screening device, Scout DS (VeraLight Inc., Albuquerque, NM) (SCOUT), in a native Asian Indian cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

SCOUT is a tabletop, skin fluorescence spectrometer that reports a risk score following a 3-4-min noninvasive measurement of a subject's left volar forearm. SCOUT, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and hemoglobin A(1c) (A1C) were compared for detection of abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT) in a cohort of 256 subjects without previous diagnosis of diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance in Chennai, India. After an overnight fast, a 75-g, 2-h oral glucose tolerance test was administered, and AGT was defined as a plasma glucose value ≥ 140 mg/dL (7.8 mmol/dL). Sensitivity, false-positive rate (FPR), and receiver-operating characteristics area under the curve for AGT detection were computed for SCOUT, FPG, and A1C. Intra-day reproducibility of SCOUT was assessed.

RESULTS

SCOUT, FPG, and A1C (at respective thresholds of 50, 110 mg/dL, and 5.7%) exhibited sensitivities of 87%, 32%, and 86%, respectively, and FPR of 52%, 3%, and 58%, respectively. For the 177 subjects receiving a valid SCOUT Diabetes Score on both measurement attempts, the coefficient of variation was 5.8%, and the Pearson correlation was 0.91. A SCOUT score could be obtained on 91% of subjects after two attempts.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of SCOUT is similar to that of A1C, whereas FPG had a much lower sensitivity. SCOUT is an effective tool for AGT screening in Asian Indians.

Development of a new scoring system for predicting the 5 year incidence of type 2 diabetes in Japan: the Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 6 (TOPICS 6)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aims of this study were to assess the clinical significance of introducing HbA(1c) into a risk score for diabetes and to develop a scoring system to predict the 5 year incidence of diabetes in Japanese individuals.

METHODS

The study included 7,654 non-diabetic individuals aged 40-75 years. Incident diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/l, HbA(1c) ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or self-reported clinician-diagnosed diabetes. We constructed a risk score using non-laboratory assessments (NLA) and evaluated improvements in risk prediction by adding elevated FPG, elevated HbA(1c) or both to NLA.

RESULTS

The discriminative ability of the NLA score (age, sex, family history of diabetes, current smoking and BMI) was 0.708. The difference in discrimination between the NLA + FPG and NLA + HbA(1c) scores was non-significant (0.836 vs 0.837; p = 0.898). A risk score including family history of diabetes, smoking, obesity and both FPG and HbA(1c) had the highest discrimination (0.887, 95% CI 0.871, 0.903). At an optimal cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity were high at 83.7% and 79.0%, respectively. After initial screening using NLA scores, subsequent information on either FPG or HbA(1c) resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 42.7% or 52.3%, respectively (p < 0.0001). When both were available, net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were further improved at 56.7% (95% CI 47.3%, 66.1%) and 10.9% (9.7%, 12.1%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Information on HbA(1c) or FPG levels after initial screening by NLA can precisely refine diabetes risk reclassification.