Risk assessment, risk management and risk-based monitoring following a reported accidental release of poliovirus in Belgium, September to November 2014

Laboratory-acquired infections and pathogen escapes worldwide between 2000 and 2021: a scoping review

Laboratory-acquired infections (LAIs) and accidental pathogen escape from laboratory settings (APELS) are major concerns for the community. A risk-based approach for pathogen research management within a standard biosafety management framework is recommended but is challenging due to reasons such as inconsistency in risk tolerance and perception. Here, we performed a scoping review using publicly available, peer-reviewed journal and media reports of LAIs and instances of APELS between 2000 and 2021. We identified LAIs in 309 individuals in 94 reports for 51 pathogens. Eight fatalities (2·6% of all LAIs) were caused by infection with Neisseria meningitidis (n=3, 37·5%), Yersinia pestis (n=2, 25%), Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium (S Typhimurium; n=1, 12·5%), or Ebola virus (n=1, 12·5%) or were due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (n=1, 12·5%). The top five LAI pathogens were S Typhimurium (n=154, 49·8%), Salmonella enteritidis (n=21, 6·8%), vaccinia virus (n=13, 4·2%), Brucella spp (n=12, 3·9%), and Brucella melitensis (n=11, 3·6%). 16 APELS were reported, including those for Bacillus anthracis, SARS-CoV, and poliovirus (n=3 each, 18·8%); Brucella spp and foot and mouth disease virus (n=2 each, 12·5%); and variola virus, Burkholderia pseudomallei, and influenza virus H5N1 (n=1 each, 6·3%). Continual improvement in LAI and APELS management via their root cause analysis and thorough investigation of such incidents is essential to prevent future occurrences. The results are biased due to the reliance on publicly available information, which emphasises the need for formalised global LAIs and APELS reporting to better understand the frequency of and circumstances surrounding these incidents.

Production of antigenically stable enterovirus A71 virus-like particles in Pichia pastoris as a vaccine candidate

Enterovirus A71 (EVA71) causes widespread disease in young children with occasional fatal consequences. In common with other picornaviruses, both empty capsids (ECs) and infectious virions are produced during the viral lifecycle. While initially antigenically indistinguishable from virions, ECs readily convert to an expanded conformation at moderate temperatures. In the closely related poliovirus, these conformational changes result in loss of antigenic sites required to elicit protective immune responses. Whether this is true for EVA71 remains to be determined and is the subject of this investigation.We previously reported the selection of a thermally resistant EVA71 genogroup B2 population using successive rounds of heating and passage. The mutations found in the structural protein-coding region of the selected population conferred increased thermal stability to both virions and naturally produced ECs. Here, we introduced these mutations into a recombinant expression system to produce stabilized virus-like particles (VLPs) in Pichia pastoris.The stabilized VLPs retain the native virion-like antigenic conformation as determined by reactivity with a specific antibody. Structural studies suggest multiple potential mechanisms of antigenic stabilization, however, unlike poliovirus, both native and expanded EVA71 particles elicited antibodies able to directly neutralize virus in vitro. Therefore, anti-EVA71 neutralizing antibodies are elicited by sites which are not canonically associated with the native conformation, but whether antigenic sites specific to the native conformation provide additional protective responses in vivo remains unclear. VLPs are likely to provide cheaper and safer alternatives for vaccine production and these data show that VLP vaccines are comparable with inactivated virus vaccines at inducing neutralising antibodies.

Production of antigenically stable enterovirus A71 virus-like particles in Pichia pastoris as a vaccine candidate

Enterovirus A71 (EVA71) causes widespread disease in young children with occasional fatal consequences. In common with other picornaviruses, both empty capsids (ECs) and infectious virions are produced during the viral lifecycle. While initially antigenically indistinguishable from virions, ECs readily convert to an expanded conformation at moderate temperatures. In the closely related poliovirus, these conformational changes result in loss of antigenic sites required to elicit protective immune responses. Whether this is true for EVA71 remains to be determined and is the subject of this investigation. We previously reported the selection of a thermally resistant EVA71 genogroup B2 population using successive rounds of heating and passage. The mutations found in the structural protein-coding region of the selected population conferred increased thermal stability to both virions and naturally produced ECs. Here, we introduced these mutations into a recombinant expression system to produce stabilised virus-like particles (VLPs) in Pichia pastoris . The stabilised VLPs retain the native virion-like antigenic conformation as determined by reactivity with a specific antibody. Structural studies suggest multiple potential mechanisms of antigenic stabilisation, however, unlike poliovirus, both native and expanded EVA71 particles elicited antibodies able to directly neutralise virus in vitro . Therefore, the anti-EVA71 neutralising antibodies are elicited by sites which are not canonically associated with the native conformation, but whether antigenic sites specific to the native conformation provide additional protective responses in vivo remains unclear. VLPs are likely to provide cheaper and safer alternatives for vaccine production and these data show that VLP vaccines are comparable with inactivated virus vaccines at inducing neutralising antibodies.

Thermal stabilization of enterovirus A 71 and production of antigenically stabilized empty capsids

Enterovirus A71 (EVA71) infection can result in paralysis and may be fatal. In common with other picornaviruses, empty capsids are produced alongside infectious virions during the viral lifecycle. These empty capsids are antigenically indistinguishable from infectious virus, but at moderate temperatures they are converted to an expanded conformation. In the closely related poliovirus, native and expanded antigenic forms of particle have different long-term protective efficacies when used as vaccines. The native form provides long-lived protective immunity, while expanded capsids fail to generate immunological protection. Whether this is true for EVA71 remains to be determined. Here, we selected an antigenically stable EVA71 virus population using successive rounds of heating and passage and characterized the antigenic conversion of both virions and empty capsids. The mutations identified within the heated passaged virus were dispersed across the capsid, including at key sites associated with particle expansion. The data presented here indicate that the mutant sequence may be a useful resource to address the importance of antigenic conformation in EVA71 vaccines.

Impact of sewer overflow on public health: A comprehensive scientometric analysis and systematic review

Sewer overflow (SO), which has attracted global attention, poses serious threat to public health and ecosystem. SO impacts public health via consumption of contaminated drinking water, aerosolization of pathogens, food-chain transmission, and direct contact with fecally-polluted rivers and beach sediments during recreation. However, no study has attempted to map the linkage between SO and public health including Covid-19 using scientometric analysis and systematic review of literature. Results showed that only few countries were actively involved in SO research in relation to public health. Furthermore, there are renewed calls to scale up environmental surveillance to safeguard public health. To safeguard public health, it is important for public health authorities to optimize water and wastewater treatment plants and improve building ventilation and plumbing systems to minimize pathogen transmission within buildings and transportation systems. In addition, health authorities should formulate appropriate policies that can enhance environmental surveillance and facilitate real-time monitoring of sewer overflow. Increased public awareness on strict personal hygiene and point-of-use-water-treatment such as boiling drinking water will go a long way to safeguard public health. Ecotoxicological studies and health risk assessment of exposure to pathogens via different transmission routes is also required to appropriately inform the use of lockdowns, minimize their socio-economic impact and guide evidence-based welfare/social policy interventions. Soft infrastructures, optimized sewer maintenance and prescreening of sewer overflow are recommended to reduce stormwater burden on wastewater treatment plant, curtail pathogen transmission and marine plastic pollution. Comprehensive, integrated surveillance and global collaborative efforts are important to curtail on-going Covid-19 pandemic and improve resilience against future pandemics.

Use of Guanidine Thiocyanate-Based Nucleic Acid Extraction Buffers to Inactivate Poliovirus in Potentially Infectious Materials

The efforts of the Global Poliovirus Eradication Initiative (GPEI) have brought about the near elimination of poliovirus worldwide. The World Health Organization has issued guidelines for the safe handling and containment of infectious materials (IM) and potentially infectious materials (PIM) following poliovirus eradication. Inactivation of poliovirus in IM and PIM is needed to prevent inadvertent re-introduction of polioviruses post-eradication. In this study, we investigated the use of guanidine thiocyanate-based nucleic acid extraction buffers from commercially available nucleic acid extraction kits to inactivate poliovirus in cell culture isolates and stool suspensions, two common types of poliovirus IM and PIM, respectively. Incubation with selected nucleic acid extraction buffers or extraction buffers supplemented with ethanol reduced the infectivity of high-titer wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1), wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3), Sabin 1 (SL1), and Sabin 3 (SL3) cell culture isolates below the limit of detection in CCID₅₀ assays. Stool suspensions containing WPV1, WPV3, SL1, SL2, or SL3 were also inactivated by the extraction buffers tested. Blind passage of WPV1-spiked stool suspensions confirmed complete inactivation of WPV1 after incubation with extraction buffers. Moreover, treatment with a buffer consisting of 4 M guanidine thiocyanate with 30% ethanol inactivated a high-titer WPV1 culture isolate and a WPV1-spiked stool suspension. Taken together, these results show that guanidine thiocyanate-based nucleic acid extraction buffers are an effective means of inactivating poliovirus IM and PIM, and thus will be instrumental in ensuring containment compliance and preventing potential re-emergence of contained polioviruses.

Method Development for Enteric Virus Recovery from Primary Sludge

Enteric viruses, such as poliovirus, are a leading cause of gastroenteritis, which causes 2–3 million deaths annually. Environmental surveillance of wastewater supplements clinical surveillance for monitoring enteric virus circulation. However, while many environmental surveillance methods require liquid samples, some at-risk locations utilize pit latrines with waste characterized by high solids content. This study’s objective was to develop and evaluate enteric virus concentration protocols for high solids content samples. Two existing protocols were modified and tested using poliovirus type 1 (PV1) seeded into primary sludge. Method 1 (M1) utilized acid adsorption, followed by 2 or 3 elutions (glycine/sodium chloride and/or threonine/sodium chloride), and skimmed milk flocculation. Method 2 (M2) began with centrifugation. The liquid fraction was filtered through a ViroCap filter and eluted (beef extract/glycine). The solid fraction was eluted (beef extract/disodium hydrogen phosphate/citric acid) and concentrated by skimmed milk flocculation. Recovery was enumerated by plaque assay. M1 yielded higher PV1 recovery than M2, though this result was not statistically significant (26.1% and 15.9%, respectively). M1 was further optimized, resulting in significantly greater PV1 recovery when compared to the original protocol (p < 0.05). This method can be used to improve understanding of enteric virus presence in communities without liquid waste streams.

Risk Assessment and Virological Monitoring Following an Accidental Exposure to Concentrated Sabin Poliovirus Type 3 in France, November 2018

The safe and secure containment of infectious poliovirus (PV) in facilities where live PV are handled is the condition to achieve and maintain poliomyelitis eradication. Despite precautions to minimize the risk of release of PV from such facilities to the environment, breaches of containment have already been documented. Here, we report the management of an incident that occurred on 30 November 2018 in a French vaccine manufacturing plant. Five adequately vaccinated operators were exposed to a Sabin poliovirus type 3 (PV3) spill. A microbiological risk assessment was conducted and the operators were monitored for PV shedding. On day 5 after exposure, Sabin PV3 was detected only in the stool sample of the most exposed worker. Shedding of Sabin PV3 (as detected by viral culture) was restricted to a very short period (less than 15 days). Monitoring of this incident was an opportunity to assess the relevance of our national response plan. We concluded that the measures undertaken and reported here were appropriate and proportional.

A novel gamma radiation-inactivated sabin-based polio vaccine

A concerted action on the part of international agencies and national governments has resulted in the near-eradication of poliomyelitis. However, both the oral polio vaccine (OPV) and the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) have deficiencies which make them suboptimal for use after global eradication. OPV is composed of attenuated Sabin strains and stimulates robust immunity, but may revert to neurovirulent forms in the intestine which can be shed and infect susceptible contacts. The majority of IPV products are manufactured using pathogenic strains inactivated with formalin. Upon eradication, the production of large quantities of pathogenic virus will present an increased biosecurity hazard. A logical ideal endgame vaccine would be an inactivated form of an attenuated strain that could afford protective immunity while safely producing larger numbers of doses per unit of virus stock than current vaccines. We report here the development of an ionizing radiation (IR)-inactivated Sabin-based vaccine using a reconstituted Mn-decapeptide (MDP) antioxidant complex derived from the radioresistant bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans. In bacteria, Mn2+-peptide antioxidants protect proteins from oxidative damage caused by extreme radiation exposure. Here we show for the first time, that MDP can protect immunogenic neutralizing epitopes in picornaviruses. MDP protects epitopes in Polio Virus 1 and 2 Sabin strains (PV1-S and PV2-S, respectively), but viral genomic RNA is not protected during supralethal irradiation. IR-inactivated Sabin viruses stimulated equivalent or improved neutralizing antibody responses in Wistar rats compared to the commercially used IPV products. Our approach reduces the biosecurity risk of the current PV vaccine production method by utilizing the Sabin strains instead of the wild type neurovirulent strains. Additionally, the IR-inactivation approach could provide a simpler, faster and less costly process for producing a more immunogenic IPV. Gamma-irradiation is a well-known method of virus inactivation and this vaccine approach could be adapted to any pathogen of interest.

Intestinal Immunity to Poliovirus Following Sequential Trivalent Inactivated Polio Vaccine/Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine and Trivalent Inactivated Polio Vaccine-only Immunization Schedules: Analysis of an Open-label, Randomized, Controlled Trial in Chilean Infants

Background

Identifying polio vaccine regimens that can elicit robust intestinal mucosal immunity and interrupt viral transmission is a key priority of the polio endgame.

Methods

In a 2013 Chilean clinical trial (NCT01841671) of trivalent inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) and bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV; targeting types 1 and 3), infants were randomized to receive IPV-bOPV-bOPV, IPV-IPV-bOPV, or IPV-IPV-IPV at 8, 16, and 24 weeks of age and challenged with monovalent oral polio vaccine type 2 (mOPV2) at 28 weeks. Using fecal samples collected from 152 participants, we investigated the extent to which IPV-bOPV and IPV-only immunization schedules induced intestinal neutralizing activity and immunoglobulin A against polio types 1 and 2.

Results

Overall, 37% of infants in the IPV-bOPV groups and 26% in the IPV-only arm had detectable type 2-specific stool neutralization after the primary vaccine series. In contrast, 1 challenge dose of mOPV2 induced brisk intestinal immune responses in all vaccine groups, and significant rises in type 2-specific stool neutralization titers (P < .0001) and immunoglobulin A concentrations (P < 0.0001) were measured 2 weeks after the challenge. In subsidiary analyses, duration of breastfeeding also appeared to be associated with the magnitude of polio-specific mucosal immune parameters measured in infant fecal samples.

Conclusions

Taken together, these results underscore the concept that mucosal and systemic immune responses to polio are separate in their induction, functionality, and potential impacts on transmission and, specifically, provide evidence that primary vaccine regimens lacking homologous live vaccine components are likely to induce only modest, type-specific intestinal immunity.

Echovirus type 6 transmission clusters and the role of environmental surveillance in early warning, the Netherlands, 2007 to 2016

Background

In the Netherlands, echovirus type 6 (E6) is identified through clinical and environmental enterovirus surveillance (CEVS and EEVS).

Aim

We aimed to identify E6 transmission clusters and to assess the role of EEVS in surveillance and early warning of E6.

Methods

We included all E6 strains from CEVS and EEVS from 2007 through 2016. CEVS samples were from patients with enterovirus illness. EEVS samples came from sewage water at pre-specified sampling points. E6 strains were defined by partial VP1 sequence, month and 4-digit postcode. Phylogenetic E6 clusters were detected using pairwise genetic distances. We identified transmission clusters using a combined pairwise distance in time, place and phylogeny dimensions.

Results

E6 was identified in 157 of 3,506 CEVS clinical episodes and 92 of 1,067 EEVS samples. Increased E6 circulation was observed in 2009 and from 2014 onwards. Eight phylogenetic clusters were identified; five included both CEVS and EEVS strains. Among these, identification in EEVS did not consistently precede CEVS. One phylogenetic cluster was dominant until 2014, but genetic diversity increased thereafter. Of 14 identified transmission clusters, six included both EEVS and CEVS; in two of them, EEVS identification preceded CEVS identification. Transmission clusters were consistent with phylogenetic clusters, and with previous outbreak reports.

Conclusion

Algorithms using combined time–place–phylogeny data allowed identification of clusters not detected by any of these variables alone. EEVS identified strains circulating in the population, but EEVS samples did not systematically precede clinical case surveillance, limiting EEVS usefulness for early warning in a context where E6 is endemic.

Facility-Associated Release of Polioviruses into Communities-Risks for the Posteradication Era

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative continues to make progress toward the eradication target. Indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) type 2 was last detected in 1999, WPV type 3 was last detected in 2012, and over the past 2 years WPV type 1 has been detected only in parts of 2 countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan). Once the eradication of poliomyelitis is achieved, infectious and potentially infectious poliovirus materials retained in laboratories, vaccine production sites, and other storage facilities will continue to pose a risk for poliovirus reintroduction into communities. The recent breach in containment of WPV type 2 in an inactivated poliovirus vaccine manufacturing site in the Netherlands prompted this review, which summarizes information on facility-associated release of polioviruses into communities reported over >8 decades. Successful polio eradication requires the management of poliovirus containment posteradication to prevent the consequences of the reestablishment of poliovirus transmission.

[Polio vaccines and biorisk management of polioviruses]

Japan is the first country where inactivated polio vaccines derived from Sabin attenuated strains, which are used to manufacture oral polio vaccines, were introduced in routine immunization program. The Sabin-derived inactivated vaccine has been developed based on the fact that Sabin strains are less neurovirulent and manufactured at safer productionfacilities than wild polioviruses. It is also convincing that Sabin strains are more safely used for evaluating the efficacy of inactivated vaccines in rat immunogenicity tests. However, in the current situation where polioviruses are close to being eradicated, the facilities that manufacture vaccines and/or conduct quality control of them are needed to meet the biorisk management requirements established by WHO, which are based on the Polio Eradication & Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018. At present, type 2 polioviruses including Sabin 2 strain should be contained in the facilities which meet the WHO biorisk management requirements. The respective facilities are expected to give full consideration based on a careful risk assessment of viral transmission not only to personnel, but also to the environment and the community around the facilities, and the establishment of biorisk management will be needed. Thus, the facilities handling and storing infectious polioviruses must be certified as poliovirus-essential facilities following the WHO biorisk management requirements.

Viral dispersal in the coastal zone: A method to quantify water quality risk

Waterborne and shellfish-borne enteric viruses associated with wastewater-polluted coastal waters (e.g. Norovirus, Hepatitis A/E viruses, Adenovirus) represent a major threat to human health. Improved understanding of the locations and periods of heightened risks can help target mitigation measures and improve public health. We developed a river-estuary-coast model to simulate virus dispersal, driven by point source discharges and river flows in combination with tidal forcing. Viral inputs were based on measured wastewater adenovirus concentrations and the model was implemented with or without viral die-off. We applied the model to the Conwy river (North Wales, UK), through the estuary, to the Irish Sea coast where bathing waters and shellfisheries are known to be prone to viral contamination. Using a suite of scenarios, we showed that river flow was the primary control of viral export to the coast. Since the Conwy catchment is short and steep, and the estuary is small and river-dominated, short-duration high intensity 'flash floods' were shown to transport viruses through the estuary and out to sea, despite dilution or die-off effects. Duplicating flow events (i.e., storm clustering) did not double the virus export since the virus re-entered the estuary on the flood tide. The tidal magnitude and timing of high water relative to peak river flow were also important drivers regulating viral dispersal. A worst-case event simulation (i.e., combining high river flows with high viral loading and high spring tide) resulted in increased concentrations of virus at nearby coasts, although the spatial spread was similar to the previous scenarios. Our results suggest that impact models for predicting and mitigating episodes of poor microbiological water quality may require careful representation of the intensity and timings of river flow when evaluating pathogen exposure risk.

Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk for Livestock When Animal Viruses Are Applied in Human Oncolytic Therapy: A Case Study for Seneca Valley Virus

Some viruses cause tumor regression and can be used to treat cancer patients; these viruses are called oncolytic viruses. To assess whether oncolytic viruses from animal origin excreted by patients pose a health risk for livestock, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed to estimate the risk for the Dutch pig industry after environmental release of Seneca Valley virus (SVV). The QRA assumed SVV excretion in stool by one cancer patient on Day 1 in the Netherlands, discharge of SVV with treated wastewater into the river Meuse, downstream intake of river water for drinking water production, and consumption of this drinking water by pigs. Dose-response curves for SVV infection and clinical disease in pigs were constructed from experimental data. In the worst scenario (four log₁₀ virus reduction by drinking water treatment and a farm with 10,000 pigs), the infection risk is less than 1% with 95% certainty. The risk of clinical disease is almost seven orders of magnitude lower. Risks may increase proportionally with the numbers of treated patients and days of virus excretion. These data indicate that application of wild-type oncolytic animal viruses may infect susceptible livestock. A QRA regarding the use of oncolytic animal virus is, therefore, highly recommended. For this, data on excretion by patients, and dose-response parameters for infection and clinical disease in livestock, should be studied.

A phase 2 study of a combined diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine with a Sabin-derived inactivated poliovirus vaccine in children

Background: With the goal of global eradication of poliomyelitis due to wild-type viruses within sight, WHO now recommends that infants receive at least one dose of trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) with bivalent OPV (types 1 and 3) replacing trivalent OPV. Limited manufacturing capacity and new regulations on manufacturers' use of wild-type viruses is driving the development of IPV based on attenuated Sabin type polioviruses. Takeda are developing a Sabin-based IPV (sIPV) to augment global capacity and supply. Methods: This study was performed to evaluate three dosages (low, medium and high) of the sIPV when administered as a combination vaccine with diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis antigens (DTaP-sIPV) as a three dose primary series or as booster dose in Japanese infants and toddlers. Results: All formulations were immunogenic and well-tolerated with no safety concerns in either infants or toddlers. There was a dosage-dependent induction of neutralizing antibodies against Sabin polioviruses, the only statistically significant differences being between the low-dose and medium- and high-dose sIPVs. There was good correlation of neutralizing antibodies against Sabin and wild-type polioviruses. No sIPV dose had an observable effect on immune responses to DTaP components or the reactogenicity profile of the combined vaccine. Conclusion: When administered as a DTaP-sIPV combination, Takeda's sIPV vaccine was well-tolerated and highly immunogenic in infant and toddler schedules. The medium-dose formulation offers the optimal balance between immunogenicity and potential dose-sparing to provide a new source of sIPV to enhance the global supply, while mitigating the environmental risks associated with manufacturing vaccines with wild-type viruses.

Poliovirus containment risks and their management

Aim

Assess risks related to breaches of poliovirus containment.

Method

Using a dynamic transmission model, we explore the variability among different populations in the vulnerability to poliovirus containment breaches as population immunity to transmission declines after oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation.

Results

Although using OPV instead of wild poliovirus (WPV) seed strains for inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) production offers some expected risk reintroduction of live polioviruses from IPV manufacturing facilities, OPV seed strain releases may become a significant threat within 5-10 years of OPV cessation in areas most conducive to fecal-oral poliovirus transmission, regardless of IPV use.

Conclusions

Efforts to quantify the risks demonstrate the challenges associated with understanding and managing relatively low-probability and high-consequence containment failure events.

Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine

The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist in which OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multi-scale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.

Oral polio vaccine (OPV) has played an essential role in the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV). OPV contains attenuated (weakened) yet transmissible viruses that can spread from person to person. In its attenuated form, this spread is beneficial as it generates population immunity. However, the attenuation of OPV is unstable and it can, in rare instances, revert to a virulent form and cause vaccine-derived outbreaks of paralytic poliomyelitis. Thus, OPV is both a vaccine and a source of poliovirus, and for complete eradication, its use in vaccination must be ended. After OPV is no longer used in routine immunization, as with the cessation of type 2 OPV in 2016, population immunity to polioviruses will decline. A key question is how this loss of population immunity will affect the potential of OPV viruses to spread within and across communities. To address this, we examined the roles of immunity, sanitation, and social contact in limiting OPV transmission. Our results derive from an extensive review and synthesis of vaccine trial data and community epidemiological studies. Shedding, oral susceptibility to infection, and transmission data are analyzed to systematically explain and model observations of WPV and OPV circulation. We show that in high transmission rate settings, falling population immunity after OPV cessation will lead to conditions in which OPV and WPV are similarly capable of causing outbreaks, and that this conclusion is compatible with the known safety of OPV prior to global cessation. Novel strategies will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication for all time.

Response to a wild poliovirus type 2 (WPV2)-shedding event following accidental exposure to WPV2, the Netherlands, April 2017

On 3 April 2017, a wild poliovirus type 2 (WPV2) spill occurred in a Dutch vaccine manufacturing plant. Two fully vaccinated operators with risk of exposure were advised on stringent personal hygiene and were monitored for virus shedding. Poliovirus (WPV2-MEF1) was detected in the stool of one, 4 days after exposure, later also in sewage samples. The operator was isolated at home and followed up until shedding stopped 29 days after exposure. No further transmission was detected.

Diagnostic Assay Development for Poliovirus Eradication

With poliovirus eradication nearing, few pockets of active wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission remain in the world. Intratypic differentiation (ITD) plays a crucial part in laboratory surveillance as the molecular detection method that can identify and distinguish wild and vaccine-like polioviruses isolated from acute flaccid paralysis cases or environmental sources. The need to detect new variants of WPV serotype 1 (WPV1) and the containment of all serotype 2 polioviruses (PV2) in 2015 required changes to the previous version of the method. The ITD version 5.0 is a set of six real-time reverse transcription-PCR (rRT-PCR) assays that serve as accurate diagnostic tools to easily detect and differentiate PV serotypes and genotypes. We describe the creation and properties of quantitation standards, including 16 control RNA transcripts and nine plaque-isolated viruses. All ITD rRT-PCR assays were validated using these standards, and the limits of detection were determined for each assay. We designed and pilot tested two new assays targeting recently circulating WPV1 genotypes and all PV2 viruses. The WPV1 assay had 99.1% specificity and 100% sensitivity, and the PV2 assay had 97.7% specificity and 92% sensitivity. Before proceeding to the next step in the global poliovirus eradication program, we needed to gain a better understanding of the performance of the ITD 5.0 suite of molecular assays and their limits of detection and specificities. The findings and conclusions in this evaluation serve as building blocks for future development work.

Insights from a Systematic Search for Information on Designs, Costs, and Effectiveness of Poliovirus Environmental Surveillance Systems

Poliovirus surveillance plays a critical role in achieving and certifying eradication and will play a key role in the polio endgame. Environmental surveillance can provide an opportunity to detect circulating polioviruses prior to the observation of any acute flaccid paralysis cases. We completed a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on environmental surveillance for polio including the search terms "environmental surveillance" or "sewage," and "polio," "poliovirus," or "poliomyelitis," and compared characteristics of the resulting studies. The review included 146 studies representing 101 environmental surveillance activities from 48 countries published between 1975 and 2016. Studies reported taking samples from sewage treatment facilities, surface waters, and various other environmental sources, although they generally did not present sufficient details to thoroughly evaluate the sewage systems and catchment areas. When reported, catchment areas varied from 50 to over 7.3 million people (median of 500,000 for the 25% of activities that reported catchment areas, notably with 60% of the studies not reporting this information and 16% reporting insufficient information to estimate the catchment area population size). While numerous studies reported the ability of environmental surveillance to detect polioviruses in the absence of clinical cases, the review revealed very limited information about the costs and limited information to support quantitative population effectiveness of conducting environmental surveillance. This review motivates future studies to better characterize poliovirus environmental surveillance systems and the potential value of information that they may provide in the polio endgame.

Community transmission of type 2 poliovirus after cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine in Bangladesh: an open-label cluster-randomised trial and modelling study

Background

Trivalent oral polio vaccine (tOPV) was replaced worldwide from April, 2016, by bivalent types 1 and 3 oral polio vaccine (bOPV) and one dose of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) where available. The risk of transmission of type 2 poliovirus or Sabin 2 virus on re-introduction or resurgence of type 2 poliovirus after this switch is not understood completely. We aimed to assess the risk of Sabin 2 transmission after a polio vaccination campaign with a monovalent type 2 oral polio vaccine (mOPV2).

Methods

We did an open-label cluster-randomised trial in villages in the Matlab region of Bangladesh. We randomly allocated villages (clusters) to either: tOPV at age 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks; or bOPV at age 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks and either one dose of IPV at age 14 weeks or two doses of IPV at age 14 weeks and 18 weeks. After completion of enrolment, we implemented an mOPV2 vaccination campaign that targeted 40% of children younger than 5 years, regardless of enrolment status. The primary outcome was Sabin 2 incidence in the 10 weeks after the campaign in per-protocol infants who did not receive mOPV2, as assessed by faecal shedding of Sabin 2 by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). The effect of previous immunity on incidence was also investigated with a dynamical model of poliovirus transmission to observe prevalence and incidence of Sabin 2 virus. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02477046.

Findings

Between April 30, 2015, and Jan 14, 2016, individuals from 67 villages were enrolled to the study. 22 villages (300 infants) were randomly assigned tOPV, 23 villages (310 infants) were allocated bOPV and one dose of IPV, and 22 villages (329 infants) were assigned bOPV and two doses of IPV. Faecal shedding of Sabin 2 in infants who did not receive the mOPV2 challenge did not differ between children immunised with bOPV and one or two doses of IPV and those who received tOPV (15 of 252 [6%] vs six of 122 [4%]; odds ratio [OR] 1·29, 95% CI 0·45–3·72; p=0·310). However, faecal shedding of Sabin 2 in household contacts was increased significantly with bOPV and one or two doses of IPV compared with tOPV (17 of 751 [2%] vs three of 353 [1%]; OR 3·60, 95% CI 0·82–15·9; p=0·045). Dynamical modelling of within-household incidence showed that immunity in household contacts limited transmission.

Interpretation

In this study, simulating 1 year of tOPV cessation, Sabin 2 transmission was higher in household contacts of mOPV2 recipients in villages receiving bOPV and either one or two doses of IPV, but transmission was not increased in the community as a whole as shown by the non-significant difference in incidence among infants. Dynamical modelling indicates that transmission risk will be higher with more time since cessation.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Polio and Measles Down the Drain: Environmental Enterovirus Surveillance in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2015

Polioviruses (PVs) are members of the genus Enterovirus In the Netherlands, the exclusion of PV circulation is based on clinical enterovirus (EV) surveillance (CEVS) of EV-positive cases and routine environmental EV surveillance (EEVS) conducted on sewage samples collected in the region of the Netherlands where vaccination coverage is low due to religious reasons. We compared the EEVS data to those of the CEVS to gain insight into the relevance of EEVS for poliovirus and nonpolio enterovirus surveillance. Following the polio outbreak in Syria, EEVS was performed at the primary refugee center in Ter Apel in the Netherlands, and data were compared to those of CEVS and EEVS. Furthermore, we assessed the feasibility of poliovirus detection by EEVS using measles virus detection in sewage during a measles outbreak as a proxy. Two Sabin-like PVs were found in routine EEVS, 11 Sabin-like PVs were detected in the CEVS, and one Sabin-like PV was found in the Ter Apel sewage. We observed significant differences between the three programs regarding which EVs were found. In 6 sewage samples collected during the measles outbreak in 2013, measles virus RNA was detected in regions where measles cases were identified. In conclusion, we detected PVs, nonpolio EVs, and measles virus in sewage and showed that environmental surveillance is useful for poliovirus detection in the Netherlands, where live oral poliovirus vaccine is not used and communities with lower vaccination coverage exist. EEVS led to the detection of EV types not seen in the CEVS, showing that EEVS is complementary to CEVS.IMPORTANCE We show that environmental enterovirus surveillance complements clinical enterovirus surveillance for poliovirus detection, or exclusion, and for nonpolio enterovirus surveillance. Even in the presence of adequate surveillance, only a very limited number of Sabin-like poliovirus strains were detected in a 10-year period, and no signs of transmission of oral polio vaccine (OPV) strains were found in a country using exclusively inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Measles viruses can be detected during an outbreak in sewage samples collected and concentrated following procedures used for environmental enterovirus surveillance.

Wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus circulation, and implications for polio eradication

Polio cases due to wild virus are reported by only three countries in the world. Poliovirus type 2 has been globally eradicated and the last detection of poliovirus type 3 dates to November 2012. Poliovirus type 1 remains the only circulating wild strain; between January and September 2016 it caused 26 cases (nine in Afghanistan, 14 in Pakistan, three in Nigeria). The use of oral polio vaccine (OPV) has been the key to success in the eradication effort. However, paradoxically, moving towards global polio eradication, the burden caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) becomes increasingly important. In this paper circulation of both wild virus and VDPVs is reviewed and implications for the polio eradication endgame are discussed. Between April and May 2016 OPV2 cessation has been implemented globally, in a coordinated switch from trivalent OPV to bivalent OPV. In order to decrease the risk for cVDPV2 re-emergence inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been introduced in the routine vaccine schedule of all countries. The likelihood of re-emergence of cVDPVs should markedly decrease with time after OPV cessation, but silent circulation of polioviruses cannot be ruled out even a long time after cessation. For this reason, immunity levels against polioviruses should be kept as high as possible in the population by the use of IPV, and both clinical and environmental surveillance should be maintained at a high level.