African swine fever in wild boar

Evaluation of the Risk of African Swine Fever Virus Transmission at the Interface between Feral and Domestic Pigs in Lombardy, with a View to Establishing Preventive Measures for Domestic Pigs

African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread worldwide, and has reached multiple countries across Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, and the Pacific, representing a serious economic burden threatening pig health and welfare, as well as food security. The disease affects domestic pigs and wild boar, and in several European countries the disease is endemic in wild boars. The lack of vaccines or effective treatments highlights the importance of effective control measures used to keep domestic and feral pigs separated to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the study of the livestock-wildlife interface is quite complex and has many aspects to consider, including the uncertainty of wild-boar population data. In this study, we determined the risk of spread of the ASF virus at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boars using indicators that can indirectly indicate the presence of wild boars in order to target specific control measures in the highest risk areas. The results of the study were compared with those obtained by Pittiglio, in which the population data for wild boars was estimated using a geostatistical method and similar results were obtained. However, the present study used specific information relating to the wild-boar population and this allowed us to use fewer variables.

Epidemiological Assessment of African Swine Fever Spread in the Dominican Republic

Since African Swine Fever (ASF) was detected in the Dominican Republic in July 2021, it has negatively impacted the country's swine industry. Assessing the epidemiological situation is crucial to helping local authorities and industry stakeholders control the disease. Here, data on 155 reported outbreaks in the Dominican Republic from November 2022 to June 2023 were evaluated. Descriptive spatiotemporal analysis was performed to characterize disease distribution and spread, and between-herd R0 was calculated for the study period. The Knox test and a space-time permutation model were used to evaluate clustering. Data on clinical presentation, biosecurity measures, and suspected reasons for introduction were categorized and summarized. The majority (78%) of outbreaks occurred on backyard farms which generally had low biosecurity. Across farm types, the majority of pigs were still alive at the time of depopulation. Spatiotemporal findings and R0 estimates suggest an endemic pattern of disease geographically located centrally within the country. Clustering was detected even at small temporal and spatial distances due to outbreaks amongst neighboring backyard farms. These results provide critical information on the current state of the ASF epidemic in the Dominican Republic and will aid government officials and swine industry leaders in developing effective ASF control strategies.

Assessing the epidemiological risk at the human-wild boar interface through a one health approach using an agent-based model in Barcelona, Spain

Wild boar (WB, Sus scrofa) populations are increasing in urban areas, posing an epidemiological risk for zoonotic pathogens such as hepatitis E virus (HEV) and antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter (AMR-CAMP), as well as non-zoonotic pathogens such as African swine fever virus (ASFV). An epidemiological extension of a validated Agent-Based Model (ABM) was developed to assess the one-year epidemiological scenarios of HEV, AMR-CAMP, and ASFV in the synurbic WB-human interface in Barcelona, Spain. The predicted citizen exposure was similar for HEV and AMR-CAMP, at 0.79% and 0.80% of the human population in Barcelona, respectively, despite AMR-CAMP being more prevalent in the WB population than HEV. This suggests a major role of faeces in pathogen transmission to humans in urban areas, resulting in a non-negligible public health risk. The ASFV model predicted that the entire WB population would be exposed to the virus through carcasses (87.6%) or direct contact (12.6%) in 51-71 days after the first case, with an outbreak lasting 71-124 days and reducing the initial WB population by 95%. The ABM predictions are useful for animal and public health risk assessments and to support risk-based decision-making. The study underscores the need for interdisciplinary cooperation among animal, public, and environmental health managers, and the implementation of the One Health approach to address the epidemiological and public health risks posed by the synurbization of WB in urban areas. The spatially explicit epidemiological predictions of the ABM can be adapted to other diseases and scenarios at the wildlife-livestock-human interface.

Nine Years of African Swine Fever in Poland

(1) Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and fatal haemorrhagic disease in domestic pigs and wild boars, causing significant economic loss to the swine industry in the European Union. The genotype II of African swine fever has spread in many European countries since the virus was detected in 2007 in Georgia. In Poland, the genotype II of the ASF virus was confirmed on 17 February 2014 in the eastern part of the country and appeared to have been transmitted to Poland from Belarus. Poland has been particularly affected by ASF epidemics in the last decade, resulting in a significant decline in the Polish pig population. Wild boars are the main reservoir of the African swine fever virus (ASFV), but human activities such as transportation and illegal animal trade are the primary reasons for the long-distance transmission of the disease. (2) Conclusions: During the nine years of ASF in Poland, multiple measures have been taken to prevent the spread of the virus among the wild boar population via the passive and active surveillance of these animals. With regard to pig farms, the only effective measure for preventing the spread of ASF is the efficient enforcement by state authorities of the biosecurity standards and the farmers' compliance with them.

Mucosal and cellular immune responses elicited by nasal and intramuscular inoculation with ASFV candidate immunogens

African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious disease caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV) that is highly contagious and has an extremely high mortality rate (infected by virulent strains) among domestic and wild pigs, causing huge economic losses to the pig industry globally. In this study, SDS-PAGE gel bands hybridized with ASFV whole virus protein combined with ASFV-convalescent and ASFV-positive pig serum were identified by mass spectrometry. Six antigens were detected by positive serum reaction bands, and eight antigens were detected in ASFV-convalescent serum. In combination with previous literature reports and proteins corresponding to MHC-II presenting peptides screened from ASFV-positive pig urine conducted in our lab, seven candidate antigens, including KP177R (p22), K78R (p10), CP204L (p30), E183L (p54), B602L (B602L), EP402R-N (CD2V-N) and F317L (F317L), were selected. Subunit-Group 1 was prepared by mixing above-mentioned seven ASFV recombinant proteins with MONTANIDETM1313 VG N mucosal adjuvant and immunizing pigs intranasally and intramuscularly. Subunit-Group 2 was prepared by mixing four ASFV recombinant proteins (p22, p54, CD2V-N1, B602L) with Montanide ISA 51 VG adjuvant and immunizing pigs by intramuscular injection. Anticoagulated whole blood, serum, and oral fluid were collected during immunization for flow cytometry, serum IgG as well as secretory sIgA antibody secretion, and cytokine expression testing to conduct a comprehensive immunogenicity assessment. Both immunogen groups can effectively stimulate the host to produce ideal humoral, mucosal, and cellular immune responses, providing a theoretical basis for subsequent functional studies, such as immunogens challenge protection and elucidation of the pathogenic mechanism of ASFV.

Innovative Research Offers New Hope for Managing African Swine Fever Better in Resource-Limited Smallholder Farming Settings: A Timely Update

African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pigs has, since its discovery in Africa more than a century ago, been associated with subsistence pig keeping with low levels of biosecurity. Likewise, smallholder and backyard pig farming in resource-limited settings have been notably affected during the ongoing epidemic in Eastern Europe, Asia, the Pacific, and Caribbean regions. Many challenges to managing ASF in such settings have been identified in the ongoing as well as previous epidemics. Consistent implementation of biosecurity at all nodes in the value chain remains most important for controlling and preventing ASF. Recent research from Asia, Africa, and Europe has provided science-based information that can be of value in overcoming some of the hurdles faced for implementing biosecurity in resource-limited contexts. In this narrative review we examine a selection of these studies elucidating innovative solutions such as shorter boiling times for inactivating ASF virus in swill, participatory planning of interventions for risk mitigation for ASF, better understanding of smallholder pig-keeper perceptions and constraints, modified culling, and safe alternatives for disposal of carcasses of pigs that have died of ASF. The aim of the review is to increase acceptance and implementation of science-based approaches that increase the feasibility of managing, and the possibility to prevent, ASF in resource-limited settings. This could contribute to protecting hundreds of thousands of livelihoods that depend upon pigs and enable small-scale pig production to reach its full potential for poverty alleviation and food security.

Effect of legal regulation of supplemental feeding on space use of red deer in an area with chronic wasting disease

Supplemental feeding of cervids during winter is a widespread management practice, but feeding may increase the risk of disease transmission. Therefore, legal regulations to limit supplemental feeding are often implemented when dealing with severe infectious diseases, such as chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids. However, it is currently unclear whether these regulations result in decreased spatial clustering and aggregation as intended. Supplemental feeding is expected to restrict the movement of cervids. Therefore, a ban on feeding may also result in wider space use and a risk of geographic spread of disease. The space use of 63 GPS-marked red deer (Cervus elaphus) was investigated before (n = 34) and after (n = 29) the implementation of a legal regulation aimed at limiting the supplemental feeding of cervids during winter in a CWD-affected region of Nordfjella, Norway. Snow depth was the main determinant of the space use for red deer. A moderate reduction in the number of GPS positions in spatial clusters was evident during periods of deep snow once the ban was in place. Sizes of core areas (Kernel 50%), home ranges (Kernel 95%), and dispersion (MCP 100%, number of 1 km2 pixels visited per deer) declined from January to March and with increasing snow depth. Dispersion (number of 1 km2 pixels visited per deer) did not depend on snow depth after the ban, and red deer used larger areas when snow depth was high after the ban compared to before. The ban on supplementary feeding had no effect on size of core areas or home ranges. Several potential factors can explain the overall weak effect of the ban on space use, including the use of agricultural fields by red deer, other anthropogenic feeding, and landscape topography. This study highlights that snow depth is the main factor determining space use during winter, and it remains to be determined whether the moderate reduction in spatial clustering during deep snow after the ban was sufficient to lower the risk of disease transmission.

Management of a Focal Introduction of ASF Virus in Wild Boar: The Belgian Experience

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal disease of suids that was detected in wild boar in Belgium in September 2018. The measures implemented to stop the spread and eliminate the African swine fever virus consisted of creating restriction zones, organising efficient search and removal of carcasses, constructing wire fences, and depopulating wild boar in the area surrounding the infected zone. The ASF management zone included the infected and the white zones and covered 1106 km² from which 7077 wild boar have been removed. A total of 5338 wild boars have been qPCR-tested and 833 have been detected ASF-positive. The search effort amounted to 60,631 h with a main focus on the infected zone (88%). A total of 277 km of fences have been set up. The main cause of mortality in the infected zone was the virus itself, while hunting, trapping, and night shooting were used together to reduce the wild boar density in the surrounding white zones. After continuous dispersion of the virus until March 2019, the epidemic wave stopped, and the last fresh positive case was discovered in August 2019. Hence, Belgium was declared free of the disease in November 2020.

Whole-genome sequencing of African swine fever virus from wild boars in the Kaliningrad region reveals unique and distinguishing genomic mutations

Introduction

Since the first report of outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in Georgia in 2007, the disease has expanded into Europe, Russia, and Asia, spreading rapidly via contact with infected animals including domestic pigs and wild boars. The vast expansion of this Genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) across wide-ranging territories and hosts inevitably led to the acquisition of novel mutations. These mutations could be used to track the molecular epidemiology of ASFV, provided that they are unique to strains restricted within a certain area. Whilst whole-genome sequencing remains the gold standard for examining evolutionary changes, sequencing of a single locus with significant variation and resolution power could be used as a rapid and cost-effective alternative to characterize multiple isolates from a single or related outbreak.

Material and methods

ASFVs obtained during active ASF outbreaks in the Russian region of Kaliningrad between 2017 and 2019 were examined. Since all of the viruses belonged to Genotype II and no clear differentiation based on central variable region (CVR) sequencing was observed, the whole-genome sequences of nine ASFV isolates from this region were determined. To obtain insights into the molecular evolution of these isolates, their sequences were compared to isolates from Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Results

Phylogenetic analysis based on the whole-genome sequences clustered the new isolates as a sister lineage to isolates from Poland and Germany. This suggests a possible shared origin followed by the addition of novel mutations restricted to isolates from this region. This status as a sister lineage was mirrored when analyzing polymorphisms in MGF-505-5R and MGF-110-7L, whilst a polymorphism unique to sequences from Kaliningrad was identified at locus K145R. This newly identified mutation was able to distinguish the isolates obtained from Kaliningrad with sequences of Genotype II ASFVs available on GenBank.

Discussion

The findings of this study suggest that ASFVs circulating in Kaliningrad have recently obtained this mutation providing an additional marker to the mutations previously described.

Dynamics of the African Swine Fever Spread in Poland

Introduction

African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease's progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data.

Material and Methods

The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014-2021.

Results

The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km² every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a near-linear generalised trend.

Conclusion

Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.

African Swine Fever Virus: A Review

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease with a high fatality rate in both domestic pigs and wild boars. ASF has greatly challenged pig-raising countries and also negatively impacted regional and national trade of pork products. To date, ASF has spread throughout Africa, Europe, and Asia. The development of safe and effective ASF vaccines is urgently required for the control of ASF outbreaks. The ASF virus (ASFV), the causative agent of ASF, has a large genome and a complex structure. The functions of nearly half of its viral genes still remain to be explored. Knowledge on the structure and function of ASFV proteins, the mechanism underlying ASFV infection and immunity, and the identification of major immunogenicity genes will contribute to the development of an ASF vaccine. In this context, this paper reviews the available knowledge on the structure, replication, protein function, virulence genes, immune evasion, inactivation, vaccines, control, and diagnosis of ASFV.

Estimating the risk of environmental contamination by forest users in African Swine Fever endemic areas

Background

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease caused by the African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV), the only virus of the Asfaviridae family, which affects different species of wild and domestic suids, and for which no vaccination or effective medical treatment is currently available. The virus can survive for long periods in the environment, and humans can unintentionally act as vectors through infected fomites, a risk that is linked to the ASF introduction into pig farms. We ran a simulation study, in which we reconstructed the probability process leading to the different forms of human-mediated ASF contamination in ASF endemic areas. We compared the infection risks related to different types of human forest activities and produced estimates of the minimum expected number of human-induced contamination events occurring annually at the scale of some European countries.

Results

When analysed on a short temporal scale and in a relatively small spatial context, ASF environmental contamination appeared as a rather unlikely event for most of the simulated forest uses, with contamination probabilities often lower than 0.1%. When scaling up the contamination process to a whole year and to large geographic areas, though, the accumulation of the same forest activities, repeated several times per month within the same patch of forest, produced the expectation that thousands of contamination events would occur each year, with potentially relevant epidemiological consequences. Wild boar supplemental feeding and forest logging emerged as the riskiest activities in terms of contamination probabilities, but risk was highly influenced by the frequency and intensity of the different types of forest use.

Conclusions

The risk of human-mediated ASF environmental contamination should not be disregarded when planning management actions to reduce ASF circulation and prevent its breach into the pig farming system. Supplemental feeding should be strongly reduced or avoided in ASF affected areas. Wild boar hunting, which is often employed as an active management tool in ASF affected areas, should be seen as both a tool for controlling wild boar density and as a potential risk for further contamination. It is essential to implement and enforce strict biosecurity measures for all forest-based human activities in ASF endemic areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13028-022-00636-z.

Eight Years of African Swine Fever in the Baltic States: Epidemiological Reflections

African swine fever (ASF) was first detected in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in 2014 and has since been circulating in the Baltic States with a similar epidemiological course characterized by persistence of the disease in the wild boar population and occasional spill-over infections in domestic pigs. The aim of the present study was to evaluate surveillance data on ASF in wild boar from the three countries to improve our understanding of the course of the disease. ASF surveillance and wild boar population data of the countries were analyzed. In all three countries, a decrease in the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar was observed over time. Although somewhat delayed, an increase in the seroprevalence was seen. At the same time, the wild boar population density decreased significantly. Towards the end of the study period, the wild boar population recovered, and the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar increased again, whereas the seroprevalence decreased. The decreasing virus prevalence has obviously led to virus circulation at a very low level. Together with the decreasing wild boar population density, the detection of ASF-infected wild boar and thus ASF control has become increasingly difficult. The course of ASF and its continuous spread clearly demonstrate the necessity to scrutinize current ASF surveillance and control strategies fundamentally and to consider new transdisciplinary approaches.

Permeability of artificial barriers (fences) for wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Mediterranean mixed landscapes

BACKGROUND

Fences are one of the most widespread manmade features in nature, constituting an artificial limitation to the movement of wildlife. To date, their effects on wildlife behavior have been understudied but this knowledge is required to design effective management procedures. Using 21 GPS-monitored wild boar, we evaluated the permeability of different types of fences and described temporal patterns and spatial hotspots for crossing events. A fence's permeability was inferred by the crossing success, i.e., the number of times that animals crossed a barrier vs the number of times they did not cross. The vulnerability of fences at watercourses was explored by assessing whether the frequency of crossings was higher around watercourse intersections than expected by chance.

RESULTS

Well-maintained big game proof fences were the most effective in reducing successful wild boar crossings; they were, on average, 30% more efficient than livestock type fences. Crossing success was higher for males than females and during the food shortage period than in the food abundance period. The frequency of crossings around watercourses was higher than expected by chance, especially in moderately and well-maintained big game proof type fences.

CONCLUSION

While no fence type was 100% wild boar proof, well-maintained big game proof fences substantially constrained the movement of boar. However, they are vulnerable around watercourses. Managing the conflicts in which this species is involved, such as shared infections and agricultural damage, would require fences that are even more effective than the ones analyzed here, ideally in conjunction with other preventive actions. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Main roads and land cover shaped the genetic structure of a Mediterranean island wild boar population

Patterns of genetic differentiation within and among animal populations might vary due to the simple effect of distance or landscape features hindering gene flow. An assessment of how landscape connectivity affects gene flow can help guide management, especially in fragmented landscapes. Our objective was to analyze population genetic structure and landscape genetics of the native wild boar (Sus scrofa meridionalis) population inhabiting the island of Sardinia (Italy), and test for the existence of Isolation-by-Distance (IBD), Isolation-by-Barrier (IBB), and Isolation-by-Resistance (IBR). A total of 393 Sardinian wild boar samples were analyzed using a set of 16 microsatellite loci. Signals of genetic introgression from introduced non-native wild boars or from domestic pigs were revealed by a Bayesian cluster analysis including 250 reference individuals belonging to European wild populations and domestic breeds. After removal of introgressed individuals, genetic structure in the population was investigated by different statistical approaches, supporting a partition into five discrete subpopulations, corresponding to five geographic areas on the island: north-west (NW), central west (CW), south-west (SW), north-central east (NCE), and south-east (SE). To test the IBD, IBB, and IBR hypotheses, we optimized resistance surfaces using genetic algorithms and linear mixed-effects models with a maximum likelihood population effects parameterization. Landscape genetics analyses revealed that genetic discontinuities between subpopulations can be explained by landscape elements, suggesting that main roads, urban settings, and intensively cultivated areas are hampering gene flow (and thus individual movements) within the Sardinian wild boar population. Our results reveal how human-transformed landscapes can affect genetic connectivity even in a large-sized and highly mobile mammal such as the wild boar, and provide crucial information to manage the spread of pathogens, including the African Swine Fever virus, endemic in Sardinia.

Partitioning, a Novel Approach to Mitigate the Risk and Impact of African Swine Fever in Affected Areas

As African swine fever (ASF) continues to expand geographically, supplementary control strategies are needed to reduce disease risk and impact in affected areas. Full depopulation is central to current ASF control efforts, and its efficacy depends on surveillance and timely disease reporting, while resulting in large losses regardless of the producers' efforts to promptly detect, report, and contain the disease. This disconnect between prompt detection and reporting, and subsequent farm losses, can deter producers to invest in ASF detection and control. Alternative approaches are needed to incentivize individual producers to invest in early detection and reporting. We postulate that commercial swine farms may be effectively partitioned in separate units, or subpopulations, to which biosecurity, surveillance and control can be applied. The suggested Partitioning framework relies on three main components: 1. external and internal biosecurity to reduce the risk of ASF introduction and maintain separate subpopulations; 2. cost-effective on-farm ASF surveillance to enhance early detection; 3. response plans at the unit level, including culling of affected subpopulations, and demonstration of freedom from disease on the remaining ones. With such Partitioning approach, individual producers may reduce ASF risk on a farm and in the region, while also reducing ASF outbreak losses via targeted depopulation of affected units. It requires relevant legislation to incorporate the notion of within-farm subpopulations and provide a regulatory framework for targeted depopulation and substantiation of disease freedom. Its design should be tailored to fit individual farms. Partitioning can be an effective public-private partnership approach for ASF risk reduction. It should be driven by industry, as its benefits are accrued mainly by individual producers, but regulatory oversight is key to ensure proper implementation and avoid further disease spread. Partitioning's value is greatest for producers in ASF-affected regions, but ASF-free areas could also benefit from it for preparedness and early detection. It could also be adapted to other transboundary animal diseases and can be implemented as a stand-alone program or in conjunction with other efforts such as zoning and compartmentalization. Partitioning would contribute to the improved resilience and sustainability of the global pork industry and will benefit consumers and society through improved food security and animal welfare.

Differences in wild boar spatial behaviour among land uses and management scenarios in Mediterranean ecosystems

The ubiquitous wild boar is causing diverse and growing conflicts of socio-ecological and economic relevance worldwide. For that reason, knowledge of its spatial ecology is crucial to designing effective management programmes. But this knowledge is scarce in Mediterranean areas with mixed land uses. We describe the spatial ecology and habitat selection of 41 adult wild boar monitored using GPS collars and analyse the effects of sex and the period (food shortage period, hunting season and food abundance period) under different land uses (protected areas, mixed farms and fenced hunting estates). The spatial ecology of wild boar was characterised by marked temporality, mediated by sex and the land uses in the area. The activity (ACT), daily range (DR) and home range (HR) were higher for males than females, and in mixed farms versus fenced hunting estates, while the lowest values were obtained in protected areas. These effects were more marked for ACT and DR (movement) than HR. The selection of scrublands and avoidance of woodlands was observed where drive hunt events occur (mixed farms and fenced estates), but not in the protected areas. The differences in the requirements, reproductive behaviour and, interestingly, response to disturbance according to sex may explain this dissimilar behaviour. Disturbance originated higher movement rates and the selection of sheltering land cover as a refuge during the hunting season. This information is useful for designing species monitoring and management programmes; including both preventive and reactive actions in response to events such as outbreaks of African swine fever and agricultural damage produced by wild boar in Europe.

African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective

African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Estonia in 2014. From February 2019 to August 2020, no pigs or wild boar tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV), only ASFV-specific antibodies could be detected in shot wild boar. However, ASF recently re-emerged in wild boar. We tested three hypotheses that might explain the current situation: (i) ASFV may have been present throughout, but at a prevalence below the detection limit; (ii) seropositive wild boar may have remained infectious (i.e., virus-carriers) and kept the epidemic going; or (iii) ASF was gone for 1.5 years, but was recently re-introduced. Using Estonian surveillance data, the sensitivity of the surveillance system and the confidence in freedom from ASF were estimated. Furthermore, the detection probability was determined and cluster analyses were performed to investigate the role of serological positive wild boar. The results suggest that the surveillance system was not able to detect virus circulation at a design prevalence below 1%. With respect to the confidence in freedom from ASF, the results indicate that circulating virus should have been detected over time, if the prevalence was ≥2%. However, the decreasing wild boar population density and ongoing surveillance activities made ASFV circulation at a low prevalence unlikely. Cluster analyses provided no evidence for a significant accumulation of serologically positive wild boar in temporal connection to the re-emergence of ASFV. Further targeted research, such as long-term experimental studies and molecular epidemiology, is necessary to improve our knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF and to control the disease more effectively.

Managing African Swine Fever: Assessing the Potential of Camera Traps in Monitoring Wild Boar Occupancy Trends in Infected and Non-infected Zones, Using Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models

The recent spreading of African swine fever (ASF) over the Eurasian continent has been acknowledged as a serious economic threat for the pork industry. Consequently, an extensive body of research focuses on the epidemiology and control of ASF. Nevertheless, little information is available on the combined effect of ASF and ASF-related control measures on wild boar (Sus scrofa) population abundances. This is crucial information given the role of the remaining wild boar that act as an important reservoir of the disease. Given the high potential of camera traps as a non-invasive method for ungulate trend estimation, we assess the effectiveness of ASF control measures using a camera trap network. In this study, we focus on a major ASF outbreak in 2018-2020 in the South of Belgium. This outbreak elicited a strong management response, both in terms of fencing off a large infected zone as well as an intensive culling regime. We apply a Bayesian multi-season site-occupancy model to wild boar detection/non-detection data. Our results show that (1) occupancy rates at the onset of our monitoring period reflect the ASF infection status; (2) ASF-induced mortality and culling efforts jointly lead to decreased occupancy over time; and (3) the estimated mean total extinction rate ranges between 22.44 and 91.35%, depending on the ASF infection status. Together, these results confirm the effectiveness of ASF control measures implemented in Wallonia (Belgium), which has regained its disease-free status in December 2020, as well as the usefulness of a camera trap network to monitor these effects.

Using data from collective hunts to estimate the wild boar (Sus scrofa) population density in north-eastern Poland

The spread of the African swine fever through wild boar population has caused major losses in the pig industry. Therefore, to decrease the population density of wild boar in Poland, the culling of these animals has been dramatically increased. However, the effect of depopulation is unknown because there are no methods that could be used throughout the country to estimate the number of wild boar. Thus, during two hunting seasons an attempt was made to estimate the number of wild boar using data from collective hunts. The forested area of 21 hunting districts (351.5 km2) was divided into five sampling inventory blocks (SIBs), which were used for the statistical analysis of the population density, the harvest rate and results of collective hunts. The average population density obtained by a driving census amounted to 8.19 ± 1.12 and 10.09 ± 1.06 (x̅ ± SE), animals/km2, which indicates that 2879 and 3547 wild boar were living in the study area in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 seasons respectively. The number of wild boars bagged per one hunting plot was adopted as the harvest success index (HBI). In SIBs the HBI value fluctuated in the range of 0.55 to 1.87 individuals/hunting plot and the population density ranged from 6.46 to 12.18 wild boars/km2. The non-linear regression showed a positive relationship between the HBI index and the population density. The discussion covers the possibility of using collective hunts to estimate the number of wild boar in Poland and in the European Union.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

African Swine Fever in the Russian Far East (2019-2020): Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Implications for Wild Ungulates

African swine fever (ASF) is an emerging viral contagious disease affecting domestic pigs (DP) and wild boar (WB). ASF causes significant economic damage to the pig industry worldwide due to nearly 100% mortality and the absence of medical treatments. Since 2019, an intensive spread of ASF has been observed in the Russian Far East region. This spread raises concerns for epidemiologists and ecologists given the potential threat to the WB population, which is an essential member of the region's wild ungulates and provides a notable share of food resources for predatory species. This study aims to determine the genotype of ASF virus circulating in the region, reveal the spatio-temporal patterns of the ASF outbreaks' emergence, and assess the potential reduction of the regional fauna because of expected depopulation of WB. The first historical case of ASF in the study region was caused by an African swine fever virus (ASFV) isolated from DPs and belonging to Genotype 2, CVR1; IGR-2 (TRS +). Sequencing results showed no significant differences among ASFV strains currently circulating in the Russian Federation, Europe, and China. The spatiotemporal analysis with the space-time permutations model demonstrated the presence of six statistically significant clusters of ASF outbreaks with three clusters in DPs and one cluster in WBs. DP outbreaks prevail in the north-west regions of the study area, while northern regions demonstrate a mixture of DP and WB outbreaks. Colocation analysis did not reveal a statistically significant pattern of grouping of one category of outbreaks around the others. The possible damage to the region's fauna was assessed by modeling the total body mass of wild ungulates before and after the wild boars' depopulation, considering a threshold density of WB population of 0.025 head/km², according to the currently in force National Plan on the ASF Eradication in Russia. The results suggest the total mass of ungulates of the entire study region will likely decrease by 8.4% (95% CI: 4.1-13.0%), while it may decrease by 33.6% (19.3-46.1%) in the Primorsky Krai, thereby posing an undeniable threat to the predatory species of the region.

Research priorities to fill knowledge gaps in wild boar management measures that could improve the control of African swine fever in wild boar populations

The European Commission asked EFSA to provide study designs for the investigation of four research domains (RDs) according to major gaps in knowledge identified by EFSA in a report published in 2019: (RD 1) African swine fever (ASF) epidemiology in wild boar; (RD 2) ASF transmission by vectors; (RD 3) African swine fever virus (ASFV) survival in the environment, and (RD 4) the patterns of seasonality of ASF in wild boar and domestic pigs in the EU. In this Scientific Opinion, the second RD on ASF epidemiology in wild boar is addressed. Twenty-nine research objectives were proposed by the working group and broader ASF expert networks and 23 of these research objectives met a prespecified inclusion criterion. Fourteen of these 23 research objectives met the predefined threshold for selection and so were prioritised based on the following set of criteria: (1) the impact on ASF management; (2) the feasibility or practicality to carry out the study; (3) the potential implementation of study results in practice; (4) a possible short time-frame study (< 1 year); (5) the novelty of the study; and (6) if it was a priority for risk managers. Finally, after further elimination of three of the proposed research objectives due to overlapping scope of studies published during the development of this opinion, 11 research priorities were elaborated into short research proposals, considering the potential impact on ASF management and the period of one year for the research activities.

The Role of Interleukine-10 and Interferon-γ as Potential Markers of the Evolution of African Swine Fever Virus Infection in Wild Boar

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is one of the most challenging pathogens to affect both domestic and wild pigs. The disease has now spread to Europe and Asia, causing great damage to the pig industry. Although no commercial vaccine with which to control the disease is, as yet, available, some potential vaccine candidates have shown good results in terms of protection. However, little is known about the host immune mechanisms underlying that protection, especially in wild boar, which is the main reservoir of the disease in Europe. Here, we study the role played by two cytokines (IL-10 and IFN-γ) in wild boar orally inoculated with the attenuated vaccine candidate Lv17/WB/Rie1 and challenged with a virulent ASFv genotype II isolate. A group of naïve wild boar challenged with the latter isolate was also established as a control group. Our results showed that both cytokines play a key role in protecting the host against the challenge virus. While high levels of IL-10 in serum may trigger an immune system malfunctioning in challenged animals, the provision of stable levels of this cytokine over time may help to control the disease. This, together with high and timely induction of IFN-γ by the vaccine candidate, could help protect animals from fatal outcomes. Further studies should be conducted in order to support these preliminary results and confirm the role of these two cytokines as potential markers of the evolution of ASFV infection.

A Comparison of Perceptions of Estonian and Latvian Hunters With Regard to the Control of African Swine Fever

Since the first detected African swine fever (ASF) cases in Lithuanian wild boar in 2014, the virus has occurred in many other member states of the European Union (EU), most recently in Belgium in 2018 and in Germany in 2020. Passive surveillance and various control measures are implemented as part of the strategy to stop disease spread in the wild boar population. Within this framework, hunters perform important activities, such as the removal of carcasses, fencing or hunting. Therefore, the successful implementation of these measures largely depends on their acceptability by hunters. Methods of participatory epidemiology can be used to determine the acceptance of control measures. The use of participatory methods allows the involvement of key stakeholders in the design, the implementation and the analysis of control and surveillance activities. In the present study, two studies that had been conducted using participatory epidemiology with hunters in Estonia and Latvia were compared on the topics recruitment, participants, facilitators, focus group discussion (FGDs) and their contents. The aim was to evaluate similarities and differences in the two studies and to identify a broader spectrum of possibilities to increase the willingness of hunters supporting the fight against ASF. Evaluating all conducted FGDs in both countries showed primarily similarities in the perceptions and opinions of the hunters in Estonia and Latvia. One notable difference was that passive surveillance in Latvia was perceived mostly as topic of duty and ethics rather than an issue driven by incentives. Participatory methods have proven to be an effective tool in the evaluation of the acceptance of established ASF control systems. The results of this study point out further chances for improving the cooperation with hunters in the future. Nevertheless, the importance of gathering and analyzing the opinions of hunters in all ASF affected countries individually is highlighted.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

What Do Lithuanian Hunters Think of African Swine Fever and Its Control-Perceptions

Simple Summary

Effectiveness and successful implementation of control measures greatly depend on hunters’ willingness and motivation to carry out these measures. Therefore, assessing their opinions regarding the current system is paramount in order to achieve the best possible results. The present study provides insights of hunters’ attitudes and perceptions about measures to control African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar in Lithuania. This study highlights several measures that are not supported by hunters (i.e., restriction of hunting, selective female hunting, ban of supplementary feeding, involvement of additional forces in ASF control) and possible motivational options (i.e., reduction of work, financial incentives and improved feedback and relationships with government officials). Considering these findings when planning and altering control measures for ASF could improve their successful implementation in the field.

Abstract

After the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into Lithuania in 2014, continuous spread of the disease resulted in infection of the wild boar populations in most parts of Lithuania. The virus has been moving closer to other Western European countries where pig density is high. An efficient surveillance system detecting ASF cases early in domestic and wild animals is necessary to manage this disease. To make surveillance appropriate and effective, it is critical to understand how key players perceive the implemented control measures. This study investigated the attitudes and beliefs of hunters in Lithuania regarding currently implemented or proposed measures for the control of ASF in the wild boar population. Study data were collected through questionnaires distributed via the internet and by hunting associations in Lithuania. In total, 621 fully completed questionnaires were received and analyzed. All measures interfering with extensive hunting, like ban of driven or individual hunting or ban of supplementary feeding were considered as unacceptable and as ineffective measures to control ASF in wild boar. However, selective hunting of female wild boar was generally considered as an unethical act and therefore rejected. Some measures that seem to have been successful in other countries, like involvement of additional forces, were rejected by Lithuanian hunters, thus implementation of these measures could be difficult. The study highlighted that there is a need for improving important relationships with other stakeholders, since many hunters expressed a lack of trust in governmental institutions and regarded cooperation with them as insufficient. Hunters emphasized that their motivation to support passive surveillance measures could be improved with financial compensation and reduction of workload. The present study provides insights into hunters’ perceptions, which may be used as a foundation for additional discussions with these important stakeholders and for adapting measures to improve their acceptance if appropriate.

The Relationship between Hunting Methods and the Sex, Age and Body Mass of Wild Boar Sus scrofa

Simple Summary

Wild boar Sus scrofa is a widely distributed species, the global population of which is continuously growing and its ecological impact is substantial. The increasing number of wild boars results in many conflicts with people, as they cause serious crop damage and are reservoirs of many epidemiologically and economically important diseases. That’s why in many countries to reduce these pressure, hunting for wild boars is carried out. Different methods of hunting and individual preferences of hunters may influence the effectiveness of such population control. We analyzed hunting data from the survey area in Western Poland from the years 1965–2016 and showed that individual hunters and team hunters usually hunt wild boars of different sex and age. Understanding these differences may help future planning of hunting operations, which will ensure an effective reduction of the number of wild boars, without causing untoward changes in the age- and sex structure of the population.

Abstract

Increases in the wild boar Sus scrofa population create many conflicts that must be managed, especially because hunting represents a major cause of mortality in this game species. However, hunting effort is not distributed randomly and is influenced by many factors, including hunting methods. This can be especially important in understanding the nature of hunting pressure for both theoretical (ecological and evolutionary) and applied reasons (for management purposes, especially during infectious diseases, for example, African swine fever, outbreaks). We analyzed hunting data from the survey area in Western Poland from the years 1965–2016. In this period a total of 2335 wild boar were culled using two hunting methods: by individual hunters (43.8%) and by teams of hunters (52.0%). During the study period, the number of wild boars increased significantly but in a non-linear manner. More adult males and yearlings of both sexes were shot during individual hunts; more adult females were culled during team hunting. Moreover, the body mass of culled wild boars was positively influenced by the distance to a forest and during the team hunts heavier females and males were shot. To effectively control populations of wild boars, programs to reduce the number of individuals should be better planned and ensure the maintenance of proper age- and sex structure in the wild boar population.

Application of the World Café method to discuss the efficiency of African swine fever control strategies in European wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations

In the current epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, the maintenance and spread of the disease among wild boar populations remains the most important epidemiological challenge. Affected and at-risk countries have addressed this situation using a diversity of wild boar management methods with varying levels of success. The methods applied range from conventional animal disease intervention measures (zoning, stakeholder awareness campaigns, increased surveillance and biosecurity measures) to measures aimed at reducing wild boar population movements (fencing and baiting/feeding) or population numbers (intensive hunting). To assess the perceived efficiency and acceptance of such measures in the context of a focal introduction of ASF, the authors organised a participatory workshop inviting experts from the fields of wildlife management, wild boar ecology, sociology, epidemiology and animal disease management to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various control approaches. The discussions between professionals from different countries took place using the World Café method. This paper documents the World Café method as a tool for increasing the level of participation in multi-stakeholder group discussions, and describes the outputs of the workshop pertaining to the control measures. In summary, the World Café method was perceived as an efficient tool for quickly grasping comprehensive perspectives from the professionals involved in managing ASF and wild boar populations, while promoting engagement in multi-disciplinary discussions. The exercise achieved a good overview of the perceived efficiency and applicability of the different control methods and generated useful recommendations for ASF control in wild boar populations in Europe.

African swine fever in the Lithuanian wild boar population in 2018: a snapshot

The first cases of African swine fever (ASF) were detected in the Lithuanian wild boar population in 2014. Since then, the disease spread slowly through the whole country, affecting both, wild boar and domestic pigs. In the other Baltic states, which both are also affected by ASF since 2014, the recent course of ASF prevalence suggests that the countries might be well under way of disease elimination. In contrast, in Lithuania the epidemic seems to be still in full progress. In the present study, we aimed to extend a previous prevalence study in Lithuania. Looking at ASF virus (ASFV) and seroprevalence estimates of wild boar in all months of 2018 and in all affected municipalities in Lithuania, the course of ASF was evaluated on a temporal and spatial scale. A non-spatial beta-binomial model was used to correct for under- or overestimation of the average prevalence estimates. Within 2018 no big differences between the prevalence estimates were seen over time. Despite of the lower sample size, highest ASFV prevalence estimates were found in dead wild boar, suggesting higher detection rates through passive surveillance than through active surveillance. Accordingly, with the maximum prevalence of 87.5% in May 2018, the ASFV prevalence estimates were very high in wild boar found dead. The number of samples originating from hunted animals (active surveillance) predominated clearly. However, the ASFV prevalence in those animals was lower with a maximum value of 2.1%, emphasizing the high value of passive surveillance. A slight increase of the seroprevalence in hunted wild boar could be seen over time. In the center of Lithuania, a cluster of municipalities with high ASFV and seroprevalence estimates was found. The results of the study indicate that ASFV is still circulating within the Lithuanian wild boar population, constituting a permanent risk of disease transmission into domestic pig holdings. However, additional, more recent data analyses are necessary to re-evaluate the course of ASF in Lithuania and thus, to be able to make a statement about the stage of the ASF epidemic in the country. This is of huge importance for Lithuania for evaluating control measures and their efficacy, but also for neighbouring countries to assess the risk of disease spread from Lithuania.

Population size estimates based on the frequency of genetically assigned parent-offspring pairs within a subsample

Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent-offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent-offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture-mark-recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic-based capture-mark-recapture (g-CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R-code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one-time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA-based (fecal or hair) capture-recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a g-CMR method is ecologically and hunting-wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species-independent use.

African Swine Fever: Lessons to Learn From Past Eradication Experiences. A Systematic Review

Prevention, early detection, prompt reaction, and communication play a crucial role in African swine fever (ASF) control. Appropriate surveillance capable of early detection of the disease in both domestic and wild animals, and the implementation of consolidated contingency plans, are currently considered the best means of controlling this disease. The purpose of this study was to understand the lessons to be learned through the global disease eradication history. To establish which strategies were successful for prevention, control, and eradication of ASF, and which errors should not be repeated, we conducted a systematic review. A query was defined to search for surveillance and control strategies applied by countries worldwide for ASF eradication in the past. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined. Decisions on study eligibility and data extraction were performed by two independent reviewers and the differences were resolved by consensus or by a third reviewer. From 1,980 papers, 23 were selected and included in the qualitative analysis. Reports from Belgium, Brazil, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, France, mainland Italy, Malta, Portugal, and Spain were included. Despite the economic resources allocated and the efforts made, eradication was possible in only eight countries, between the 50s and 90s in the twentieth century, in different epidemiological and cultural contexts, in some instances within <1 year, and in others in about 40 years. Classical surveillance strategies, such as active and passive surveillance, both at farm and slaughterhouse levels, targeted surveillance, together with conventional biosafety and sanitary measures, led to eradication even in countries in which the tick's epidemiological role was demonstrated. Historical surveillance data analysis indicated that eradication was possible even when technological tools either were not available or were used less than they are currently. This emphasizes that data on surveillance and on animal population are crucial for planning effective surveillance, and targeting proper control and intervention strategies. This paper demonstrates that some strategies applied in the past were effective; these could be implemented and improved to confront the current epidemiological wave. This offers encouragement for the efforts made particularly in Europe during the recent epidemics.

Modelling Spatial and Temporal Patterns of African Swine Fever in an Isolated Wild Boar Population to Support Decision-Making

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting all suids including wild boar. As the disease can damage commercial pig production and its circulation can threaten international trade, understanding the risks produced by free-living wild boar (as a wildlife reservoir) is important to ensure proportionate policies to exclude the disease, as well as an effective contingency response. The recent spread of the virus into Western Europe has produced concerns in many stakeholders including pig producers and national governments. Unlike in mainland Europe, where wild boar are widespread, in Britain, free-living populations have only recently re-established, and whilst these are still relatively small and isolated, they may provide a sufficient reservoir capable of sustaining disease and may thus present a continual source of infection risk to domestic pigs. This study focuses on one component of the risk produced by wild boar, specifically the distribution and persistence of virus in a landscape produced by the natural circulation of disease within wild boar. We used a spatial individual-based model run across a representation of a real landscape to explore the epidemiological consequences of an introduction of ASF into the Forest of Dean, currently hosting the largest population of wild boar in England. We explore various scenarios including variations in the prophylactic management of boar, as well as variations in reactive management (contingency response) following the detection of disease to evaluate their value in reducing this specific risk (presence of ASF virus of wild boar origin in the landscape). The abundance and distribution of wild boar is predicted to increase across our study extent over the next 20 years. Outbreaks of ASF are not predicted to be self-sustaining, with the median time to disease "burn-out" (no new infections) being 14 weeks. Carcass removal, as a tool in a package of reactive management, was of limited value in reducing the duration of outbreaks in this study. We suggest that useful predictions of some of the risks produced by ASF might be possible using only the distribution of the boar, rather than more difficult abundance or density measures.

Perspectives From the Science-Policy Interface in Animal Health and Welfare

The aim of this paper is to present scientific perspectives from the science-policy interface in animal health and welfare, with an emphasis on factors critical to scientific effectiveness. While there is broad acceptance of the value of scientific information to inform policy-making, interactions at the science-policy interface are not without difficulties. The literature highlights the need for scientists to build policy relevance to the research focus from the outset, to engage with policy-makers and other stakeholders throughout, to use platforms to facilitate science-policy dialogue, and to disseminate research findings appropriately. In the author's experience, there are a range of factors linked with effectiveness at the science-policy interface in animal health and welfare including a passion for public interest research, scientific independence, a commitment to scientific quality and openness, the opportunities afforded from partnership and collaboration, and an interest in strategic thinking and systems change. In an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world, an objective evidence base for policy decision-making is more important than ever. There is a need for particular attention to the value of collaboration between the natural and social sciences, a recognition among scientists and policy-makers that science is not value-free, the importance of effective communications, and the need to assess and communicate uncertainty. Further, there are particular challenges with science conducted in support of policy development for industry. It is hoped that this paper will stimulate and contribute to discussion and debate, both among scientists and between scientists and policy-makers, to increase scientific effectiveness at the science-policy interface in animal health and welfare.

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe

The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

African Swine Fever: Fast and Furious or Slow and Steady?

Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into Georgia in 2007, the disease has been spreading in an unprecedented way. Many countries that are still free from the disease fear the emergence of ASF in their territory either in domestic pigs or in wild boar. In the past, ASF was often described as being a highly contagious disease with mortality often up to 100%. However, the belief that the disease might enter a naïve population and rapidly affect the entire susceptible population needs to be critically reviewed. The current ASF epidemic in wild boar, but also the course of ASF within outbreaks in domestic pig holdings, suggest a constant, but relatively slow spread. Moreover, the results of several experimental and field studies support the impression that the spread of ASF is not always fast. ASF spread and its speed depend on various factors concerning the host, the virus, and also the environment. Many of these factors and their effects are not fully understood. For this review, we collated published information regarding the spreading speed of ASF and the factors that are deemed to influence the speed of ASF spread and tried to clarify some issues and open questions in this respect.

Standardized Risk Analysis Approach Aimed to Evaluate the Last African Swine Fever Eradication Program Performance, in Sardinia

From more than 40 years African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in Sardinia. Historically, areas at higher risk are located throughout some inland parts of this island where domestic pigs are still illegally kept in semi-wild conditions, living in contact with the local wild boar population, thereby creating perfect conditions for disease endemicity. A new eradication plan (EP-ASF15-18) has been ongoing for the past 3 years, based on a comprehensive strategy adapted to the local situation and focused on strong actions on domestic pig farms, wild boars (WB), and the third Sardinian typical involved population [illegal free-ranging pigs (FRPs)]. A fundamental aspect of the plan is the classification of pig farms as "controlled" or "certified," based on clinical, structural, and biosecurity characteristics. The eradication plan also provides for strong action against illegal farms and pig meat marketing channels. In addition, this plan establishes specific control measures for WB hunting and ASF checks. Each control strategy is specifically based on municipality risk level, to focus actions and resources on areas at higher risk of endemic or re-emerging ASF. Thus, precise risk classification is fundamental to this goal. The aim of the present work was to establish an ASF risk index, to provide a summary measure of the risk level in the Sardinian municipalities. This synthetic measure can express the different aspects of a multidimensional phenomenon with a single numerical value, facilitating territorial and temporal comparisons. To this end, retrospective data (years 2011-2018) were used. The ASF risk index is the result of the algorithmic combination of numerical elementary indicators: disease prevalence in the suid populations, WB compliance with EP-ASF15-18, domestic pig compliance with EP-ASF15-18, and presence of FRPs. A negative binomial regression model has been applied and predictors calculated to obtain a risk index for each municipality. The result of the risk analysis was discussed and considered according to expert opinion and consensus. The results of this study, expressed as risk score and classified into five risk levels, can be used to help define actions to be carried out in each Sardinian municipality, according to the risk assessment for the territory.

Threat to the French Swine Industry of African Swine Fever: Surveillance, Spread, and Control Perspectives

African swine fever (ASF) has one of the highest case-fatality rates among pig diseases. Europe was considered ASF-free for about two decades until 2007, when the virus was introduced into Georgia. Since then, it has been identified throughout Eastern Europe, and reached Belgium in late 2018, increasing the risk of ASF being introduced into neighboring countries-namely Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and France. French authorities have therefore reinforced surveillance measures to improve the probability of detecting ASF rapidly if it emerges in France. Predictive modeling may help to anticipate the extent of virus spread and evaluate the efficiency of these surveillance measures. A previously published and well-documented model that simulates ASF virus spread was therefore tailored to realistically represent the French situation in terms of the geographic distribution of swine production sites and the commercial trade between them on the one hand, and the implementation of surveillance protocols on the other. The outcomes confirmed the moderate spread of ASF through the swine trade network, a situation that had been previously highlighted for the case of Denmark. However, the diversity of the French pig production landscape has revealed a huge potential for the geographic dispersal of the virus, especially should the index case occur in a low-density area, with a median source-to-case distance reaching 300 km. Free-range herds, which are more likely to have interactions with wild boars, were also identified as potential entrance gate for the virus. Transmissions from conventional herds were quasi-exclusively due to swine movement on the commercial network, representing 99% of transmission events. In contrast, 81% of transmission events occurred in the neighborhood of the index herd when the virus was introduced in free-range herds. The current surveillance measures were found relatively efficient for detecting the virus in large herds, leading to detection rates of 94%. However, infections on smaller production sites-which often have free-range herds-were more difficult to detect and would require screening protocols specifically targeting these smaller herds.

Analysis of Estonian surveillance in wild boar suggests a decline in the incidence of African swine fever

African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar populations is difficult to control. In affected areas, samples from all wild boar shot and found dead are investigated. The use of laboratory tests allows estimating the duration of the infection in affected animals. The study aimed to test the hypothesis that the stage of the epidemic in different areas of Estonia can be assessed on the basis of prevalence estimates. ASF surveillance data of Estonian wild boar were used to estimate prevalences and compare them between the East and West of Estonia. The temporal trend of the estimated prevalence of ASF virus positive animals and of the estimated seroprevalence of wild boar showing antibodies against ASFV was analyzed. Due to the potential influence of population density on the course of ASF in wild boar, also population density data (number of wild boar/km2) were used to investigate the relationship with laboratory test results. In areas, where the epidemic had already lasted for a long time, a small number of new cases emerged recently. The prevalence of samples that were only seropositive was significantly higher in these regions as compared to areas, where the epidemic is in full progress. The observed course of the disease could be the beginning of an ASF endemicity in this region. However, the results may also indicate that ASF has started to subside in the areas that were first affected in Estonia.

Epidemiological considerations on African swine fever in Europe 2014-2018

In 2007 African swine fever (ASF) arrived at a Black Sea harbour in Georgia and in 2014 the infection reached the European Union (EU), where it still expands its territory. ASF is a fatal viral disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boar of all ages with clinical presentations ranging from per-acute to chronic disease, including apparently asymptomatic courses. Until the detection of the first case inside the EU, infections in the current epidemic were mainly seen among pig farms with generally low biosecurity, and with incidental spill over to the wild boar population. In the EU, however, the infection survived locally in the wild boar population independently from outbreaks in domestic pigs, with a steady and low prevalence. Apart from the wild boar population and the habitat, the current epidemic recognizes humans as the main responsible for both long distance transmission and virus introduction in the domestic pig farms. This underlines the importance to include social science when planning ASF-prevention, -control, or -eradication measures. Based on experiences, knowledge and data gained from the current epidemic this review highlights some recent developments in the epidemiological understanding of ASF, especially concerning the role of wild boar and their habitats in ASF epidemiology. In this regard, the qualities of three epidemiological traits: contagiousity, tenacity, and case fatality rate, and their impact on ASF persistence and transmission are especially discussed.