Time from illness onset to death, 1918 influenza and pneumococcal pneumonia

"A custome lothsome": Investigating the association between tobacco consumption and respiratory inflammation in two post-medieval English populations (c. CE 1500-1855)

Despite current clinical knowledge of the risks associated with tobacco consumption, the bioarchaeological investigation of tobacco's effect on health in past populations remains woefully underexamined. This study explores the potential respiratory health implications of the rapid incorporation of tobacco-use into the everyday lives of English citizens during the post-medieval period. Adult skeletons from urban post-medieval St James's Gardens Burial Ground, Euston, London (N = 281; CE1789-1853) and rural post-medieval (N = 151; CE1500-1855) and medieval (N = 62; CE1150-1500) Barton-upon-Humber were examined. Individuals were assessed for tobacco consumption status using osteoarchaeological and biomolecular methods. Individuals were observed for bone changes related to inflammation within the maxillary sinuses and within the pleural/pulmonary regions. Statistical tests revealed a significant association between tobacco consumption and the presence of pulmonary/pleural inflammation in the Barton-upon-Humber post-medieval group. Tobacco consumers at Barton-upon-Humber were also more than twice as likely to present with maxillary sinusitis or pleural/pulmonary inflammation, although the results were not statistically significant. Differences between tobacco consumers and non-consumers in the London group were not apparent, but the odds of having maxillary sinusitis increased by two-fold in middle adults (compared to young adults) and lower socio-economic groups (compared to higher socio-economic groups). Significant differences in respiratory disease frequencies were apparent between rural and urban groups. The results highlight the complexity of factors affecting upper and lower respiratory disease, indicating the potential impacts of not only tobacco consumption, but household, environmental, and occupational air pollution, as well as poor water sanitation, on frequencies of respiratory disease in different population groups.

Back to Nature: Medicinal Plants as Promising Sources for Antibacterial Drugs in the Post-Antibiotic Era

Undoubtedly, the advent of antibiotics in the 19th century had a substantial impact, increasing human life expectancy. However, a multitude of scientific investigations now indicate that we are currently experiencing a phase known as the post-antibiotic era. There is a genuine concern that we might regress to a time before antibiotics and confront widespread outbreaks of severe epidemic diseases, particularly those caused by bacterial infections. These investigations have demonstrated that epidemics thrive under environmental stressors such as climate change, the depletion of natural resources, and detrimental human activities such as wars, conflicts, antibiotic overuse, and pollution. Moreover, bacteria possess a remarkable ability to adapt and mutate. Unfortunately, the current development of antibiotics is insufficient, and the future appears grim unless we abandon our current approach of generating synthetic antibiotics that rapidly lose their effectiveness against multidrug-resistant bacteria. Despite their vital role in modern medicine, medicinal plants have served as the primary source of curative drugs since ancient times. Numerous scientific reports published over the past three decades suggest that medicinal plants could serve as a promising alternative to ineffective antibiotics in combating infectious diseases. Over the past few years, phenolic compounds, alkaloids, saponins, and terpenoids have exhibited noteworthy antibacterial potential, primarily through membrane-disruption mechanisms, protein binding, interference with intermediary metabolism, anti-quorum sensing, and anti-biofilm activity. However, to optimize their utilization as effective antibacterial drugs, further advancements in omics technologies and network pharmacology will be required in order to identify optimal combinations among these compounds or in conjunction with antibiotics.

The Dark Side of Nosocomial Infections in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a potentially serious acute respiratory infection caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, the virus has spread to more than 200 countries with more than 500 million cases and more than 6 million deaths reported globally. It has long been known that viral respiratory tract infections predispose patients to bacterial infections and that these co-infections often have an unfavourable clinical outcome. Moreover, nosocomial infections, also known as healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), are those infections that are absent at the time of admission and acquired after hospitalization. However, the impact of coinfections or secondary infections on the progression of COVID-19 disease and its lethal outcome is still debated. The aim of this review was to assess the literature on the incidence of bacterial co-infections and superinfections in patients with COVID-19. The review also highlights the importance of the rational use of antibiotics in patients with COVID-19 and the need to implement antimicrobial stewardship principles to prevent the transmission of drug-resistant organisms in healthcare settings. Finally, alternative antimicrobial agents to counter the emergence of multidrug-resistant bacteria causing healthcare-associated infections in COVID-19 patients will also be discussed.

Pyrrolo[2,3-e]indazole as a novel chemotype for both influenza A virus and pneumococcal neuraminidase inhibitors

Influenza infections are often exacerbated by secondary bacterial infections, primarily caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. Both respiratory pathogens have neuraminidases that support infection. Therefore, we hypothesized that dual inhibitors of viral and bacterial neuraminidases might be an advantageous strategy for treating seasonal and pandemic influenza pneumonia complicated by bacterial infections. By screening our in-house chemical library, we discovered a new chemotype that may be of interest for a further campaign to find small molecules against influenza. Our exploration of the pyrrolo[2,3-e]indazole space led to the identification of two hit compounds, 6h and 12. These molecules were well-tolerated by MDCK cells and inhibited the replication of H3N2 and H1N1 influenza A virus strains. Moreover, both compounds suppress viral and pneumococcal neuraminidases indicating their dual activity. Given its antiviral activity, pyrrolo[2,3-e]indazole has been identified as a promising scaffold for the development of novel neuraminidase inhibitors that are active against influenza A virus and S. pneumoniae.

Influenza Virus Infects and Depletes Activated Adaptive Immune Responders

Influenza infections cause several million cases of severe respiratory illness, hospitalizations, and hundreds of thousands of deaths globally. Secondary infections are a leading cause of influenza's high morbidity and mortality, and significantly factored into the severity of the 1918, 1968, and 2009 pandemics. Furthermore, there is an increased incidence of other respiratory infections even in vaccinated individuals during influenza season. Putative mechanisms responsible for vaccine failures against influenza as well as other respiratory infections during influenza season are investigated. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) are used from influenza vaccinated individuals to assess antigen-specific responses to influenza, measles, and varicella. The observations made in humans to a mouse model to unravel the mechanism is confirmed and extended. Infection with influenza virus suppresses an ongoing adaptive response to vaccination against influenza as well as other respiratory pathogens, i.e., Adenovirus and Streptococcus pneumoniae by preferentially infecting and killing activated lymphocytes which express elevated levels of sialic acid receptors. These findings propose a new mechanism for the high incidence of secondary respiratory infections due to bacteria and other viruses as well as vaccine failures to influenza and other respiratory pathogens even in immune individuals due to influenza viral infections.

Threats of antibiotic resistance: an obliged reappraisal

We are living in a society of fear, where the objectivity in estimating risks is distorted by the media and the interested parties. During more than half of a century, the feeling of antibiotic resistance as an apocalyptic phenomenon able to push our society to the high mortality rates caused by infectious diseases in the dark pre-antibiotic ages has been steadily rising. However, at the current status of modern medicine, at least in the high-medium income countries, mortality by lack of efficacy of the antibiotic armamentarium in the therapy of infections is a problem, but not a catastrophe. The threat of antibiotic resistance has many other aspects than failures of therapy in the individual patient. Among them, the increase in the frequency of severe and potentially lethal infections, as bacteremia, the population biology alterations of the healthy microbiota, the global acceleration of bacterial evolution by selecting natural genetic tools mediating microbial interactions, and, most importantly, by modifying the equilibrium and composition of environmental microbial communities. All these threats have huge implications for human health as members of a Biosphere entirely rooted in a menaced microbiosphere.

Free actin impairs macrophage bacterial defenses via scavenger receptor MARCO interaction with reversal by plasma gelsolin

Lung injury can release intracellular actin into the alveolar milieu and is also associated with increased susceptibility to secondary infections. We investigated the effect of free (extracellular) actin on lung macrophage host defense functions. Western blot analysis demonstrated free actin release into the lung lavage fluids of mouse models of ozone injury, influenza infection, and secondary pneumococcal pneumonia and in samples from patients following burn and inhalation injury. Using levels comparable with those observed in lung injury, we found that free actin markedly inhibited murine lung macrophage binding and uptake in vitro of S. pneumoniae, S. aureus, and E. coli, (e.g., S. pneumoniae, mean %inhibition, actin vs. vehicle: 85 ± 0.3 (SD); n = 22, P < .001). Similar effects were observed on the ability of primary human macrophages to bind and ingest fluorescent Saureus (~75% inhibition). Plasma gelsolin (pGSN), a protein that functions to bind and cleave actin, restored bacterial binding and uptake by both murine and human macrophages. Scavenger receptor inhibitors reduced binding of fluorescent actin by murine macrophages [fluorescence index (×10^-3) after incubation with vehicle, actin, or actin + polyinosinic acid, respectively: 0.8 ± 0.7, 101.7 ± 50.7, or 52.7 ± 16.9; n = 5-6, P < 0.05]. In addition, actin binding was reduced in a MARCO/SR-AI/II-deficient cell line and by normal AMs obtained from MARCO^-/- mice. After release from injured cells during lung injury, free actin likely contributes to impaired host defense by blocking scavenger receptor binding of bacteria. This mechanism for increased risk of secondary infections after lung injury or inflammation may represent another target for therapeutic intervention with pGSN.

Lethal coinfection of influenza virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae lowers antibody response to influenza virus in lung and reduces numbers of germinal center B cells, T follicular helper cells, and plasma cells in mediastinal lymph Node

Secondary Streptococcus pneumoniae infection after influenza is a significant clinical complication resulting in morbidity and sometimes mortality. Prior influenza virus infection has been demonstrated to impair the macrophage and neutrophil response to the subsequent pneumococcal infection. In contrast, how a secondary pneumococcal infection after influenza can affect the adaptive immune response to the initial influenza virus infection is less well understood. Therefore, this study focuses on how secondary pneumococcal infection after influenza may impact the humoral immune response to the initial influenza virus infection in a lethal coinfection mouse model. Compared to mice infected with influenza virus alone, mice coinfected with influenza virus followed by pneumococcus had significant body weight loss and 100% mortality. In the lung, lethal coinfection significantly increased virus titers and bacterial cell counts and decreased the level of virus-specific IgG, IgM, and IgA, as well as the number of B cells, CD4 T cells, and plasma cells. Lethal coinfection significantly reduced the size and weight of spleen, as well as the number of B cells along the follicular developmental lineage. In mediastinal lymph nodes, lethal coinfection significantly decreased germinal center B cells, T follicular helper cells, and plasma cells. Adoptive transfer of influenza virus-specific immune serum to coinfected mice improved survival, suggesting the protective functions of anti-influenza virus antibodies. In conclusion, coinfection reduced the B cell response to influenza virus. This study helps us to understand the modulation of the B cell response to influenza virus during a lethal coinfection.

IMPORTANCE

Secondary pneumococcal infection after influenza virus infection is an important clinical issue that often results in excess mortality. Since antibodies are key mediators of protection, this study aims to examine the antibody response to influenza virus and demonstrates that lethal coinfection reduced the B cell response to influenza virus. This study helps to highlight the complexity of the modulation of the B cell response in the context of coinfection.

Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence

The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1·2 million U.S. troops. With over 26 000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered “America's deadliest battle”. The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45 000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded “America's deadliest”. The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918.

Respiratory viral and pneumococcal coinfection of the respiratory tract: implications of pneumococcal vaccination

The interactions between Streptococcus pneumoniae and other respiratory pathogens have been studied in vitro, in animal models and in humans - including epidemiologic and vaccine probe studies. Interactions of pneumococcus with respiratory viruses are common, and many mechanisms have been suggested to explain this phenomenon. The aim of this review is to explore pneumococcal interactions with respiratory viruses and consider the potential role that the pneumococcal polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine may play in modifying pneumococcal-respiratory viral interactions.

Influenza and community-acquired pneumonia interactions: the impact of order and time of infection on population patterns

Discoveries made during the 1918 influenza A pandemic and reports of severe disease associated with coinfection during the 2009 hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1 (commonly known as H1N1 or swine flu) pandemic have renewed interest in the role of coinfection in disease pathogenesis. The authors assessed how various timings of coinfection with influenza virus and pneumonia-causing bacteria could affect the severity of illness at multiple levels of interaction, including the biologic and population levels. Animal studies most strongly support a single pathway of coinfection with influenza inoculation occurring approximately 7 days before inoculation with Streptococcus pneumoniae, but less-examined pathways of infection also may be important for human disease. The authors discussed the implications of each pathway for disease prevention and what they would expect to see at the population level if there were sufficient data available. Lastly, the authors identified crucial gaps in the study of timing of coinfection and proposed related research questions.

The anticipated severity of a "1918-like" influenza pandemic in contemporary populations: the contribution of antibacterial interventions

Recent studies have shown that most of deaths in the 1918 influenza pandemic were caused by secondary bacterial infections, primarily pneumococcal pneumonia. Given the availability of antibiotics and pneumococcal vaccination, how will contemporary populations fare when they are next confronted with pandemic influenza due to a virus with the transmissibility and virulence of that of 1918? To address this question we use a mathematical model and computer simulations. Our model considers the epidemiology of both the influenza virus and pneumonia-causing bacteria and allows for co-infection by these two agents as well as antibiotic treatment, prophylaxis and pneumococcal vaccination. For our simulations we use influenza transmission and virulence parameters estimated from 1918 pandemic data. We explore the anticipated rates of secondary pneumococcal pneumonia and death in populations with different prevalence of pneumococcal carriage and contributions of antibiotic prophylaxis, treatment, and vaccination to these rates. Our analysis predicts that in countries with lower prevalence of pneumococcal carriage and access to antibiotics and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, there would substantially fewer deaths due to pneumonia in contemporary populations confronted with a 1918-like virus than that observed in the 1918. Our results also predict that if the pneumococcal carriage prevalence is less than 40%, the positive effects of antibiotic prophylaxis and treatment would be manifest primarily at of level of individuals. These antibiotic interventions would have little effect on the incidence of pneumonia in the population at large. We conclude with the recommendation that pandemic preparedness plans should consider co-infection with and the prevalence of carriage of pneumococci and other bacteria responsible for pneumonia. While antibiotics and vaccines will certainly reduce the rate of individual mortality, the factor contributing most to the relatively lower anticipated lethality of a pandemic with a 1918-like influenza virus in contemporary population is the lower prevalence of pneumococcal carriage.

The management of community-acquired pneumonia in infants and children older than 3 months of age: clinical practice guidelines by the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society and the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Evidenced-based guidelines for management of infants and children with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) were prepared by an expert panel comprising clinicians and investigators representing community pediatrics, public health, and the pediatric specialties of critical care, emergency medicine, hospital medicine, infectious diseases, pulmonology, and surgery. These guidelines are intended for use by primary care and subspecialty providers responsible for the management of otherwise healthy infants and children with CAP in both outpatient and inpatient settings. Site-of-care management, diagnosis, antimicrobial and adjunctive surgical therapy, and prevention are discussed. Areas that warrant future investigations are also highlighted.

Lethal synergism of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae coinfection is associated with loss of murine lung repair responses

Secondary bacterial infections increase disease severity of influenza virus infections and contribute greatly to increased morbidity and mortality during pandemics. To study secondary bacterial infection following influenza virus infection, mice were inoculated with sublethal doses of 2009 seasonal H1N1 virus (NIH50) or pandemic H1N1 virus (Mex09) followed by inoculation with Streptococcus pneumoniae 48 h later. Disease was characterized by assessment of weight loss and survival, titration of virus and bacteria by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR), histopathology, expression microarray, and immunohistochemistry. Mice inoculated with virus alone showed 100% survival for all groups. Mice inoculated with Mex09 plus S. pneumoniae showed severe weight loss and 100% mortality with severe alveolitis, denuded bronchiolar epithelium, and widespread expression of apoptosis marker cleaved caspase 3. In contrast, mice inoculated with NIH50 plus S. pneumoniae showed increased weight loss, 100% survival, and slightly enhanced lung pathology. Mex09-S. pneumoniae coinfection also resulted in increased S. pneumoniae replication in lung and bacteremia late in infection. Global gene expression profiling revealed that Mex09-S. pneumoniae coinfection did not induce significantly more severe inflammatory responses but featured significant loss of epithelial cell reproliferation and repair responses. Histopathological examination for cell proliferation marker MCM7 showed significant staining of airway epithelial cells in all groups except Mex09-S. pneumoniae-infected mice. This study demonstrates that secondary bacterial infection during 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus infection resulted in more severe disease and loss of lung repair responses than did seasonal influenza viral and bacterial coinfection. Moreover, this study provides novel insights into influenza virus and bacterial coinfection by showing correlation of lethal outcome with loss of airway basal epithelial cells and associated lung repair responses.

Secondary bacterial pneumonias lead to increased disease severity and have resulted in a significant percentage of deaths during influenza pandemics. To understand the biological basis for the interaction of bacterial and viral infections, mice were infected with sublethal doses of 2009 seasonal H1N1 and pandemic H1N1 viruses followed by infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae 48 h later. Only infection with 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus and S. pneumoniae resulted in severe disease with a 100% fatality rate. Analysis of the host response to infection during lethal coinfection showed a significant loss of responses associated with lung repair that was not observed in any of the other experimental groups. This group of mice also showed enhanced bacterial replication in the lung. This study reveals that the extent of lung damage during viral infection influences the severity of secondary bacterial infections and may help explain some differences in mortality during influenza pandemics.

Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, "wave" patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them.

Successive influenza virus infection and Streptococcus pneumoniae stimulation alter human dendritic cell function

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus is a major cause of respiratory disease worldwide and Streptococcus pneumoniae infection associated with influenza often leads to severe complications. Dendritic cells are key antigen presenting cells but its role in such co-infection is unclear.

METHODS

In this study, human monocyte derived-dentritic cells were either concurrently or successively challenged with the combination of live influenza virus and heat killed pneumococcus to mimic the viral pneumococcal infection. Dendritic cell viability, phenotypic maturation and cytokine production were then examined.

RESULTS

The challenge of influenza virus and pneumococcus altered dendritic cell functions dependent on the time interval between the successive challenge of influenza virus and pneumococcus, as well as the doses of pneumococcus. When dendritic cells were exposed to pneumococcus at 6 hr, but not 0 hr nor 24 hr after influenza virus infection, both virus and pneumococcus treated dendritic cells had greater cell apoptosis and expressed higher CD83 and CD86 than dendritic cells infected with influenza virus alone. Dendritic cells produced pro-inflammatory cytokines: TNF-α, IL-12 and IFN-γ synergistically to the successive viral and pneumococcal challenge. Whereas prior influenza virus infection suppressed the IL-10 response independent of the timing of the subsequent pneumococcal stimulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated that successive challenge of dendritic cells with influenza virus and pneumococcus resulted in synergistic up-regulation of pro-inflammatory cytokines with simultaneous down-regulation of anti-inflammatory cytokine, which may explain the immuno-pathogenesis of this important co-infection.

Improving the evidence base for decision making during a pandemic: the example of 2009 influenza A/H1N1

This article synthesizes and extends discussions held during an international meeting on "Surveillance for Decision Making: The Example of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1," held at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD), Harvard School of Public Health, on June 14 and 15, 2010. The meeting involved local, national, and global health authorities and academics representing 7 countries on 4 continents. We define the needs for surveillance in terms of the key decisions that must be made in response to a pandemic: how large a response to mount and which control measures to implement, for whom, and when. In doing so, we specify the quantitative evidence required to make informed decisions. We then describe the sources of surveillance and other population-based data that can presently--or in the future--form the basis for such evidence, and the interpretive tools needed to process raw surveillance data. We describe other inputs to decision making besides epidemiologic and surveillance data, and we conclude with key lessons of the 2009 pandemic for designing and planning surveillance in the future.

Influenza pandemics

The recent H1N1 pandemic that emerged in 2009 has illustrated how swiftly a new influenza virus can circulate the globe. Here we explain the origins of the 2009 pandemic virus, and other twentieth century pandemics. We also consider the impact of the 2009 pandemic in the human population and the use of vaccines and antiviral drugs. Thankfully this outbreak was much less severe than that associated with Spanish flu in 1918. We describe the viral factors that affect virulence of influenza and speculate on the future course of this virus in humans and animals.

Influenza infectious dose may explain the high mortality of the second and third wave of 1918-1919 influenza pandemic

Background

It is widely accepted that the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic was due to a genetic change in the virus. In animal models, the infectious dose of influenza A virus was associated to the severity of disease which lead us to propose a new hypothesis. We propose that the increase in the case-fatality rate can be explained by the dynamics of disease and by a dose-dependent response mediated by the number of simultaneous contacts a susceptible person has with infectious ones.

Methods

We used a compartment model with seasonality, waning of immunity and a Holling type II function, to model simultaneous contacts between a susceptible person and infectious ones. In the model, infected persons having mild or severe illness depend both on the proportion of infectious persons in the population and on the level of simultaneous contacts between a susceptible and infectious persons. We further allowed for a high or low rate of waning immunity and volunteer isolation at different times of the epidemic.

Results

In all scenarios, case-fatality rate was low during the first wave (Spring) due to a decrease in the effective reproduction number. The case-fatality rate in the second wave (Autumn) depended on the ratio between the number of severe cases to the number of mild cases since, for each 1000 mild infections only 4 deaths occurred whereas for 1000 severe infections there were 20 deaths. A third wave (late Winter) was dependent on the rate for waning immunity or on the introduction of new susceptible persons in the community. If a group of persons became voluntarily isolated and returned to the community some days latter, new waves occurred. For a fixed number of infected persons the overall case-fatality rate decreased as the number of waves increased. This is explained by the lower proportion of infectious individuals in each wave that prevented an increase in the number of severe infections and thus of the case-fatality rate.

Conclusion

The increase on the proportion of infectious persons as a proxy for the increase of the infectious dose a susceptible person is exposed, as the epidemic develops, can explain the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: epidemiology and clinical consequences of an emerging epidemic

Staphylococcus aureus is an important cause of skin and soft-tissue infections (SSTIs), endovascular infections, pneumonia, septic arthritis, endocarditis, osteomyelitis, foreign-body infections, and sepsis. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) isolates were once confined largely to hospitals, other health care environments, and patients frequenting these facilities. Since the mid-1990s, however, there has been an explosion in the number of MRSA infections reported in populations lacking risk factors for exposure to the health care system. This increase in the incidence of MRSA infection has been associated with the recognition of new MRSA clones known as community-associated MRSA (CA-MRSA). CA-MRSA strains differ from the older, health care-associated MRSA strains; they infect a different group of patients, they cause different clinical syndromes, they differ in antimicrobial susceptibility patterns, they spread rapidly among healthy people in the community, and they frequently cause infections in health care environments as well. This review details what is known about the epidemiology of CA-MRSA strains and the clinical spectrum of infectious syndromes associated with them that ranges from a commensal state to severe, overwhelming infection. It also addresses the therapy of these infections and strategies for their prevention.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale.

To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries.

For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty.

Heterosubtypic anti-avian H5N1 influenza antibodies in intravenous immunoglobulins from globally separate populations protect against H5N1 infection in cell culture

With antigenically novel epidemic and pandemic influenza strains persistently on the horizon it is of fundamental importance that we understand whether heterosubtypic antibodies gained from exposures to circulating human influenzas exist and can protect against emerging novel strains. Our studies of IVIG obtained from an infection-naive population (Australian) enabled us to reveal heterosubtypic influenza antibodies that cross react with H5N1. We now expand those findings for an Australian donor population to include IVIG formulations from a variety of northern hemisphere populations. Examination of IVIGs from European and South East-Asian (Malaysian) blood donor populations further reveal heterosubtypic antibodies to H5N1 in humans from different global regions. Importantly these protect against highly pathogenic avian H5N1 infection in vitro, albeit at low titres of inhibition. Although there were qualitative and quantitative differences in binding and protection between globally different formulations, the heterosubtypic antibody activities for the respective IVIGs were in general quite similar. Of particular note because of the relative geographic proximity to the epicentre of H5N1 and the majority of human infections, was the similarity in the antibody binding responses between IVIGs from the Malayan peninsula, Europe and Australia. These findings highlight the value of employing IVIGs for the study of herd immunity, and particularly heterosubtypic antibody responses to viral antigens such as those conserved between circulating human influenzas and emerging influenza strains such as H5N1. They also open a window into a somewhat ill defined arena of antibody immunity, namely heterosubtypic immunity.

Intervention strategies for an influenza pandemic taking into account secondary bacterial infections

Influenza infections often predispose individuals to consecutive bacterial infections. Both during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks, morbidity and mortality due to secondary bacterial infections can be substantial. With the help of a mathematical model, we investigate the potential impact of such bacterial infections during an influenza pandemic, and we analyze how antiviral and antibacterial treatment or prophylaxis affect morbidity and mortality. We consider different scenarios for the spread of bacteria, the emergence of antiviral resistance, and different levels of severity for influenza infections (1918-like and 2009-like). We find that while antibacterial intervention strategies are unlikely to play an important role in reducing the overall number of cases, such interventions can lead to a significant reduction in mortality and in the number of bacterial infections. Antibacterial interventions become even more important if one considers the--very likely--scenario that during a pandemic outbreak, influenza strains resistant to antivirals emerge. Overall, our study suggests that pandemic preparedness plans should consider intervention strategies based on antibacterial treatment or prophylaxis through drugs or vaccines as part of the overall control strategy. A major caveat for our results is the lack of data that would allow precise estimation of many of the model parameters. As our results show, this leads to very large uncertainty in model outcomes. As we discuss, precise assessment of the impact of antibacterial strategies during an influenza pandemic will require the collection of further data to better estimate key parameters, especially those related to the bacterial infections and the impact of antibacterial intervention strategies.