Risk for Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus on Poultry Farms, the Netherlands, 2007-2013

Drivers for a pandemic due to avian influenza and options for One Health mitigation measures

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) remain prevalent among wild bird populations in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA), leading to significant illness in and death of birds. Transmission between bird and mammal species has been observed, particularly in fur animal farms, where outbreaks have been reported. While transmission from infected birds to humans is rare, there have been instances of exposure to these viruses since 2020 without any symptomatic infections reported in the EU/EEA. However, these viruses continue to evolve globally, and with the migration of wild birds, new strains carrying potential mutations for mammalian adaptation could be selected. If avian A(H5N1) influenza viruses acquire the ability to spread efficiently among humans, large-scale transmission could occur due to the lack of immune defences against H5 viruses in humans. The emergence of AIV capable of infecting mammals, including humans, can be facilitated by various drivers. Some intrinsic drivers are related to virus characteristics or host susceptibility. Other drivers are extrinsic and may increase exposure of mammals and humans to AIV thereby stimulating mutation and adaptation to mammals. Extrinsic drivers include the ecology of host species, such as including wildlife, human activities like farming practices and the use of natural resources, climatic and environmental factors. One Health measures to mitigate the risk of AIV adapting to mammals and humans focus on limiting exposure and preventing spread. Key options for actions include enhancing surveillance targeting humans and animals, ensuring access to rapid diagnostics, promoting collaboration between animal and human sectors, and implementing preventive measures such as vaccination. Effective communication to different involved target audiences should be emphasised, as well as strengthening veterinary infrastructure, enforcing biosecurity measures at farms, and reducing wildlife contact with domestic animals. Careful planning of poultry and fur animal farming, especially in areas with high waterfowl density, is highlighted for effective risk reduction.

Risk factors for avian influenza in Danish poultry and wild birds during the epidemic from June 2020 to May 2021

Exploring the risk factors of avian influenza (AI) occurrence helps us to monitor and control the disease. Since late 2020, the number of avian influenza outbreaks in domestic and wild birds has increased in most European countries, including Denmark. This study was conducted to identify potential risk factors for wild birds and poultry during the epidemic in 2020/2021 in Denmark. Using Danish AI surveillance data of actively surveyed poultry and passively surveyed wild birds from June 2020 to May 2021, we calculated geographical attributes for bird locations and assessed the potential risk factors of AI detections using logistic regression analyses. 4% of actively surveyed poultry and 39% of passively surveyed wild birds were detected with AI circulating or ongoing at the time. Of these, 10 and 99% tested positive for the H5/H7 AI subtypes, respectively. Our analyses did not find any statistically significant risk factors for actively surveyed poultry within the dataset. For passively surveyed wild birds, bird species belonging to the Anseriformes order had a higher risk of being AI virus positive than five other taxonomic bird orders, and Galliformes were of higher risk than two other taxonomic bird orders. Besides, every 1 km increase in the distance to wetlands was associated with a 5.18% decrease in the risk of being AI positive (OR (odds ratio) 0.95, 95% CI 0.91, 0.99), when all other variables were kept constant. Overall, bird orders and distance to wetlands were associated with the occurrence of AI. The findings may provide targets for surveillance strategies using limited resources and assist in risk-based surveillance during epidemics.

A perspective of the prevalent H9N2 virus with a special focus on molecular and pathological aspects in commercial broiler chicken in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract Frequent outbreaks of avian influenza H9N2 virus in Pakistan revealed that this subtype has become endemic in the poultry industry and, besides economic losses, poses a threat to public health. The present study describes the molecular characterization and pathological alterations in naturally infected broiler chickens with the current H9N2 field strain and their phylogenomic dynamics. In this study, tissue samples (trachea, lung, kidney and intestine) from 100 commercial chicken flocks were collected from July 2018 to August 2019. Samples were subjected to molecular detection, phylogeny and subsequent pathological examination. The complete length of the HA gene was successfully amplified in five samples. Nucleotide sequencing revealed positive samples placed in a clade belonging to the B2 sub-lineage of the G1 genotype and categorized as LPAIV based on the amino acid sequence of the HA gene at the cleavage site (PAKSSR/G). Genetic analysis of the haemagglutinin (HA) gene revealed nt: 80.5%-99.5%; aa: 83.8%-98.9% homology to H9N2 strains reported previously from Pakistan, neighbouring countries, and (A/Quail/Hong Kong/G1/97). Gross lesions include a slight airsacculitis, mild hemorrhages, diffuse congestion and purulent exudate in tracheal mucosa, fibrinonecrotic cast in the trachea lumen and mild pulmonary congestion. Histopathological alterations include sloughing of epithelial cells and infiltration of inflammatory cells in the trachea, mononuclear cells (MNCs) infiltration, pulmonary congestion and exudate in the lumen of parabronchi, peritubular congestion in the kidneys with degeneration of tubular epithelial cells and degenerative changes in the intestinal villi epithelial cells and goblet cell hyperplasia. Immunohistochemistry analysis confirmed the presence of AIVH9N2 antigen in the trachea, lungs, kidney and intestine. Electron microscopy revealed ultrastructural changes in the trachea, including degenerated cilia, mitochondrial swelling and enlarged endoplasmic reticulum. Based on all essential analysis, the present study revealed the distribution of the H9N2 virus of G1 genotype in Punjab, Pakistan, with mild to moderate pathogenicity.

Integrating Citizen Scientist Data into the Surveillance System for Avian Influenza Virus, Taiwan

The continuing circulation and reassortment with low-pathogenicity avian influenza Gs/Gd (goose/Guangdong/1996)-like avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has caused huge economic losses and raised public health concerns over the zoonotic potential. Virologic surveillance of wild birds has been suggested as part of a global AIV surveillance system. However, underreporting and biased selection of sampling sites has rendered gaining information about the transmission and evolution of highly pathogenic AIV problematic. We explored the use of the Citizen Scientist eBird database to elucidate the dynamic distribution of wild birds in Taiwan and their potential for AIV exchange with domestic poultry. Through the 2-stage analytical framework, we associated nonignorable risk with 10 species of wild birds with >100 significant positive results. We generated a risk map, which served as the guide for highly pathogenic AIV surveillance. Our methodologic blueprint has the potential to be incorporated into the global AIV surveillance system of wild birds.

Infectious diseases in free-range compared to conventional poultry production

Commercial chicken production for the supply of meat and eggs has expanded in the scale and variety of production systems in use to facilitate the supply of a range of cost-effective products in response to consumer demand. In the egg sector, traditional cage systems were required to be replaced in the EU by 2012, and most of this production capacity has been replaced by colony cage systems, which provide more space, perching, and environmental enrichment. In some countries there is significant production of "cage-free" or "barn" eggs in which the birds remain housed, but have access to litter. In the UK most egg production is now free-range. Meat poultry is produced in "barn" systems with various enrichments and some free-range. The rise in free-range production has seen the return of some diseases. Biosecurity is a critical tool for disease control in all production systems, particularly when disease challenge is high or farms are in a high poultry density area. An infectious dose of a pathogen is important in determining outcomes in terms of health and productivity, so biosecurity, hygiene, and good management are important across many diseases. Infections which are notifiable, of zoonotic importance and those which are sporadic or endemic in commercial poultry production are reviewed. General principles of preventative medicine applicable to the control of infectious diseases in different poultry production systems are proposed in areas such as biosecurity, system design and maintenance, range, and vaccination, though good management is always important.

Impact of inland waters on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in neighboring poultry farms in South Korea

Background

Since 2003, the H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype has caused massive economic losses in the poultry industry in South Korea. The role of inland water bodies in avian influenza (AI) outbreaks has not been investigated. Identifying water bodies that facilitate risk pathways leading to the incursion of the HPAI virus (HPAIV) into poultry farms is essential for implementing specific precautionary measures to prevent viral transmission.

Objectives

This matched case-control study (1:4) examined whether inland waters were associated with a higher risk of AI outbreaks in the neighboring poultry farms.

Methods

Rivers, irrigation canals, lakes, and ponds were considered inland water bodies. The cases and controls were chosen based on the matching criteria. The nearest possible farms located within a radius of 3 km of the case farms were chosen as the control farms. The poultry farms were selected randomly, and two HPAI epidemics (H5N8 [2014–2016] and H5N6 [2016–2017]) were studied. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied.

Results

Statistical analysis revealed that inland waters near poultry farms were significant risk factors for AI outbreaks. The study speculated that freely wandering wild waterfowl and small animals contaminate areas surrounding poultry farms.

Conclusions

Pet birds and animals raised alongside poultry birds on farm premises may wander easily to nearby waters, potentially increasing the risk of AI infection in poultry farms. Mechanical transmission of the AI virus occurs when poultry farm workers or visitors come into contact with infected water bodies or their surroundings. To prevent AI outbreaks in the future, poultry farms should adopt strict precautions to avoid contact with nearby water bodies and their surroundings.

Influenza A Viruses and Zoonotic Events-Are We Creating Our Own Reservoirs?

Zoonotic infections of humans with influenza A viruses (IAVs) from animal reservoirs can result in severe disease in individuals and, in rare cases, lead to pandemic outbreaks; this is exemplified by numerous cases of human infection with avian IAVs (AIVs) and the 2009 swine influenza pandemic. In fact, zoonotic transmissions are strongly facilitated by manmade reservoirs that were created through the intensification and industrialization of livestock farming. This can be witnessed by the repeated introduction of IAVs from natural reservoirs of aquatic wild bird metapopulations into swine and poultry, and the accompanied emergence of partially- or fully-adapted human pathogenic viruses. On the other side, human adapted IAV have been (and still are) introduced into livestock by reverse zoonotic transmission. This link to manmade reservoirs was also observed before the 20th century, when horses seemed to have been an important reservoir for IAVs but lost relevance when the populations declined due to increasing industrialization. Therefore, to reduce zoonotic events, it is important to control the spread of IAV within these animal reservoirs, for example with efficient vaccination strategies, but also to critically surveil the different manmade reservoirs to evaluate the emergence of new IAV strains with pandemic potential.

Rainfall driven and wild-bird mediated avian influenza virus outbreaks in Australian poultry

Globally, outbreaks of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) in poultry continue to burden economies and endanger human, livestock and wildlife health. Wild waterbirds are often identified as possible sources for poultry infection. Therefore, it is important to understand the ecological and environmental factors that directly influence infection dynamics in wild birds, as these factors may thereby indirectly affect outbreaks in poultry. In Australia, where large parts of the country experience erratic rainfall patterns, intense rainfalls lead to wild waterfowl breeding events at temporary wetlands and increased proportions of immunologically naïve juvenile birds. It is hypothesized that after breeding, when the temporary wetlands dry, increasing densities of immunologically naïve waterbirds returning to permanent water bodies might strongly contribute to AIV prevalence in wild waterfowl in Australia. Since rainfall has been implicated as an important environmental driver in AIV dynamics in wild waterbirds in southeast Australia and wild waterbirds are identified globally to have a role in virus spillover into poultry, we hypothesise that rainfall events have an indirect effect on AIV outbreaks in poultry in southeast Australia. In this study we investigated this hypothesis by examining the correlation between the timing of AIV outbreaks in poultry in and near the Murray-Darling basin in relation to temporal patterns in regional rainfall since 1970. Our findings support our hypothesis and suggest that the risk of AIV outbreaks in poultry increases after a period of high rainfall, with peak AIV risk two years after the onset of the high-rainfall period. This is presumably triggered by increased rates of waterbird breeding and consequent higher proportions of immunologically naïve juvenile waterbirds entering the population directly after major rainfall events, which subsequently aggregate near permanent water bodies when the landscape dries out.

Biosecurity measures in French poultry farms are associated with farm type and location

The severe impact of recently reported Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have emphasized the need to better monitor biosecurity practices among the different French poultry production systems. Between October 2016 and September 2018, a large national cross-sectional study was carried out in France to assess biosecurity levels in high-risk poultry farms and identify farm biosecurity profiles, using Multiple Correspondence and Hierarchical Cluster Analyses. Results indicate that there is substantial room for improvement in cleaning and disinfection, anteroom management and delimitation of farm and production units for more than 50 % of the 1,004 analyzed farms. The farm biosecurity profile showing the highest level of biosecurity included commercial intensive poultry farms (gallinaceous poultry farms, in North-Western France), and those with a recent history of HPAI outbreak (duck farms, in South-Western France). The farms biosecurity profiles showing the lowest level of biosecurity included farms with multiple species (duck and gallinaceous poultry) or multiple production types (broilers and egg-layers), located in regions with a lower poultry density and without a recent history of HPAI outbreak. Outcomes provide support to adapt biosecurity improvement and inspection plans.

Comparative pathogenicity and environmental transmission of recent highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses

Strategies to control spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses by wild birds appear limited, hence timely characterization of novel viruses is important to mitigate the risk for the poultry sector and human health. In this study we characterize three recent H5-clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, the H5N8-2014 group A virus and the H5N8-2016 and H5N6-2017 group B viruses. The pathogenicity of the three viruses for chickens, Pekin ducks and Eurasian wigeons was compared. The three viruses were highly pathogenic for chickens, but the two H5N8 viruses caused no to mild clinical symptoms in both duck species. The highest pathogenicity for duck species was observed for the most recent H5N6-2017 virus. For both duck species, virus shedding from the cloaca was higher after infection with group B viruses compared to the H5N8-2014 group A virus. Higher cloacal virus shedding of wild ducks may increase transmission between wild birds and poultry. Environmental transmission of H5N8-2016 virus to chickens was studied, which showed that chickens are efficiently infected by (fecal) contaminated water. These results suggest that pathogenicity of HPAI H5 viruses and virus shedding for ducks is evolving, which may have implications for the risk of introduction of these viruses into the poultry sector.

Efficacy of an automated laser for reducing wild bird visits to the free range area of a poultry farm

In the Netherlands, free-range layer farms as opposed to indoor layer farms, are at greater risk with regard to the introduction of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). Wild waterfowl are the natural reservoir hosts of AIVs, and play a major role in their transmission to poultry by contaminating free-range layer areas. The laser as a wild bird repellent has been in use since the 1970s, in particular around airfields to reduce bird-strike. The efficacy of laser for reducing wild bird numbers in and around free-range poultry areas has however not been investigated. During the autumn-winter, wild bird visits to the free-range area of a layer farm was surveilled by video-camera for a month without laser, followed by a month with laser. The automated laser (Class-III B qualification) was operated in two separate areas (i) within the poultry free-range area that directly bordered the poultry barn between 5:00 p.m. and 10:00 a.m. when poultry were absent (free-range study area, size 1.5 ha), and (ii) in surrounding grass pastures between 10:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. The overall (all bird species combined) efficacy of the laser for reducing the rate of wild birds visiting the free-range study area was 98.2%, and for the Orders Anseriformes and Passeriformes, respectively, was 99.7% and 96.1%. With the laser in operation, the overall exposure time of the free-range area to wild bird visits, but specifically to the Order Anseriformes, was massively reduced. It can be concluded that the Class-III B laser is highly proficient at keeping wild birds, in particular waterfowl, away from the free-range area of layer farms situated along a winter migration flyway.

Geospatial modelling to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A in Mexico - An ecological study

The aim of this study was to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A (EOITA) in Mexico, using geospatial models. A spatial database of 1973 outbreaks of influenza worldwide was used to develop risk models accounting for natural (natural threat), anthropic (man-made) and environmental (combination of the above) transmission. Then, a virus establishment risk model; an introduction model of influenza A developed in another study; and the three models mentioned were utilized using multi-criteria spatial evaluation supported by geographically weighted regression (GWR), receiver operating characteristic analysis and Moran's I. The results show that environmental risk was concentrated along the Gulf and Pacific coasts, the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Baja California. The identified risk for EOITA in Mexico were: 15.6% and 4.8%, by natural and anthropic risk, respectively, while 18.5% presented simultaneous environmental, natural and anthropic risk. Overall, 28.1% of localities in Mexico presented a High/High risk for the establishment of influenza type A (area under the curve=0.923, P<0.001; GWR, r2=0.840, P<0.001; Moran's I =0.79, P<0.001). Hence, these geospatial models were able to robustly estimate those areas susceptible to EOITA, where the results obtained show the relation between the geographical area and the different effects on health. The information obtained should help devising and directing strategies leading to efficient prevention and sound administration of both human and financial resources.

Preparing for Emerging Zoonotic Viruses

The risk of emergence and spread of novel human pathogens originating from an animal reservoir has increased in the past decades. However, the unpredictable nature of disease emergence makes surveillance and preparedness challenging. Knowledge of general risk factors for emergence and spread, combined with local level data is needed to develop a risk-based methodology for early detection. This involves the implementation of the One Health approach, integrating human, animal and environmental health sectors, as well as social sciences, bioinformatics and more. Recent technical advances, such as metagenomic sequencing, will aid the rapid detection of novel pathogens on the human-animal interface.

Informing influenza pandemic preparedness using commercial poultry farmer knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) surrounding biosecurity and self-reported avian influenza outbreaks in Nepal

Avian influenza (AI) is a global health obstacle of critical concern as novel viruses are capable of initiating a pandemic. Recent spillover events of AI into human populations have occurred at human-poultry food system interfaces. As Nepal's poultry sector transitions to more intensified commercial production systems, it is important to examine the epidemiology of AI and the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of poultry sector workers. We conducted a cross-sectional KAP study utilizing a structured survey to interview 150 commercial poultry farmers in Chitwan District, Nepal. All commercial poultry farmers had knowledge of AI previous to the study and the majority farmers were able to identify farm-farm and poultry-human transmission mechanisms of AI. Farmers had more knowledge surrounding poultry AI symptoms as compared to human AI symptoms. Most farmers believe that AI is serious, contagious and a threat to everyone, yet only half believe it can be prevented. Individual-level personal protective equipment (PPE) uptake, such as facemask, glove and boot usage, on the enrolled farms was low and farm-level biosecurity practices varied greatly. Nine commercial poultry farms (6%) self-reported having an HPAI outbreak and 60 farms (40%) self-reported having an LPAI outbreak in the past 5 years. Layer farms had higher odds (OR: 5.4, 95% CI: 2.3–12.8) of self-reported LPAI as compared broiler farms. Poultry sector farmers face multiple obstacles when attempting to report AI to government authorities such as the fear of flock culling and the perceived lack of monetary compensation for culling. Our study provides updated KAP surrounding AI of farmers and self-reported AI farm-level epidemiology in Nepal's highest density commercial poultry production district. Commercial poultry farmers are fairly knowledgeable on AI, but do not take further protective practice efforts to implement their knowledge and prevent AI. Due to the potential role that human-poultry interfaces may play in AI emergence, it is critical to collaborate with the commercial poultry industry when planning and conducting AI pandemic preparedness mechanisms.

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Farmers had more knowledge surrounding poultry avian influenza symptoms as compared to human avian influenza symptoms.

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Farmer personal protective equipment (PPE) uptake, such as facemask, glove and boot usage, was low.

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6% of poultry farms self-reported having an HPAI outbreak and 40% self-reported having an LPAI outbreak in the past 5 years.

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Layer farms had higher odds of self-reported LPAI as compared broiler farms.

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Poultry farmers fear potential flock culling and lack of monetary compensation for culling when reporting avian influenza.

An observational field study of the cloacal microbiota in adult laying hens with and without access to an outdoor range

BACKGROUND

Laying hens with access to outdoor ranges are exposed to additional environmental factors and microorganisms, including potential pathogens. Differences in composition of the cloacal microbial community between indoor- and outdoor-housed layers may serve as an indicator for exposure to the outdoor environment, including its pathogens, and may yield insights into factors affecting the chickens' microbiota community dynamics. However, little is known about the influence of outdoor housing on microbiota community composition in commercial layer flocks. We performed a cross-sectional field study to evaluate differences in the cloacal microbiota of indoor- vs outdoor-layers across farms. Eight layer flocks (four indoor, four outdoor) from five commercial poultry farms were sampled. Indoor and outdoor flocks with the same rearing flock of origin, age, and breed were selected. In each flock, cloacal swabs were taken from ten layers, and microbiota were analysed with 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing.

RESULTS

Housing type (indoor vs outdoor), rearing farm, farm and poultry house within the farm all significantly contributed to bacterial community composition. Poultry house explained most of the variation (20.9%), while housing type only explained 0.2% of the variation in community composition. Bacterial diversity was higher in indoor-layers than in outdoor-layers, and indoor-layers also had more variation in their bacterial community composition. No phyla or genera were found to be differentially abundant between indoor and outdoor poultry houses. One amplicon sequence variant was exclusively present in outdoor-layers across all outdoor poultry houses, and was identified as Dietzia maris.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that exposure to an outdoor environment is responsible for a relatively small proportion of the community variation in the microbiota of layers. The poultry house, farm, and rearing flock play a much greater role in determining the cloacal microbiota composition of adult laying hens. Overall, measuring differences in cloacal microbiota of layers as an indicator for the level of exposure to potential pathogens and biosecurity seems of limited practical use. To gain more insight into environmental drivers of the gut microbiota, future research should aim at investigating community composition of commercial layer flocks over time.

Determining highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza clade 2.3.2.1c seroprevalence in ducks, Purbalingga, Central Java, Indonesia

Background and Aim

In Indonesia, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in poultry are still reported. The disease causes a decrease in egg production and an increase in mortality; this has an impact on the economic losses of farmers. Several studies have considered that ducks play a role in the HPAI endemicity in the country; however, little is known about whether or not the type of duck farming is associated with HPAI H5 virus infection, particularly within clade 2.3.2.1c, which has been predominantly found in poultry since 2014. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the HPAI seroprevalence for H5 subtype clade 2.3.2.1c in laying ducks that are kept intensively and nomadically and to determine the associated risk factors.

Materials and Methods

Forty-nine duck farmers were randomly selected from ten sub-districts in Purbalingga District, Central Java, Indonesia; a cross-sectional study was implemented to collect field data. Based on an expected HPAI prevalence level of 10%, estimated accuracy of ± 5%, and 95% confidence interval (CI), the total sample size was calculated at 36 individuals. Samples must be multiplied by 7 to reduce bias; thus, 252 ducks were taken as samples in this study. Considering that the maintenance and duck handling were uniform and farmers complained that the effect of activity to take duck samples would reduce egg production, this study only took samples from 245 ducks (oropharyngeal swabs and serum). Those samples were taken from five birds on each farm. Hemagglutination inhibition tests examined the serum samples for HPAI H5 Clade 2.3.2.1c, and pool swab samples (five swabs in one viral media transport) were examined by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) test for influenza Type A and H5 subtype virus. Information regarding farm management was obtained using a questionnaire; face-to-face interviews were conducted with the duck farmers using native Javanese language.

Results

Serum and swabs from 245 ducks were collected in total. For individual birds, 54.69% (134/245) of serum samples were H5 seropositive. Seroprevalence among nomadic ducks was 59.28% (95% CI: 0.48-0.61), which was higher than among intensively farmed ducks (48.57%, 95% CI: 0.38-0.58). Farm-level seroprevalence was 50% (95% CI: 0.30-0.69) for nomadic ducks but only 28.57% (95% CI: 0.11-0.51) for intensively farmed ducks. The farm-level virus prevalence (proportion of flocks with at least one bird positive for influenza Type A) was 17.85% (95% CI: 0.07-0.35) for nomadic ducks and 4.76% (1/21) for intensively farmed ducks (95% CI: 0.008-0.23). All influenza Type A positive samples were negative for the H5 subtype, indicating that another HA subtype AI viruses might have been circulating in ducks in the study area. A relationship between duck farms that were H5 seropositive and their maintenance system was present; however, this relationship was not significant, the nomadic duck system detected 2 times higher H5-seropositive ducks than the intensive farming system (OR: 2.16, 95% CI: 0.33-14.31).

Conclusion

This study found that the seroprevalence of HPAI in the duck population level in Purbalingga was 54.69% and demonstrated that the nomadic duck farming system was more likely to acquire HPAI H5 infection than the intensive farming duck system. Other risk factors should be further investigated as the diversity of the farming system is partially related to HPAI H5 infection.

Seasonal risk of low pathogenic avian influenza virus introductions into free-range layer farms in the Netherlands

Poultry can become infected with avian influenza viruses (AIV) via (in) direct contact with infected wild birds. Free‐range chicken farms in the Netherlands were shown to have a higher risk for introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus than indoor chicken farms. Therefore, during outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), free‐range layers are confined indoors as a risk mitigation measure. In this study, we characterized the seasonal patterns of AIV introductions into free‐range layer farms, to determine the high‐risk period. Data from the LPAI serological surveillance programme for the period 2013–2016 were used to first estimate the time of virus introduction into affected farms and then assess seasonal patterns in the risk of introduction. Time of introduction was estimated by fitting a mathematical model to seroprevalence data collected longitudinally from infected farms. For the period 2015–2016, longitudinal follow‐up included monthly collections of eggs for serological testing from a cohort of 261 farms. Information on the time of introduction was then used to estimate the monthly incidence and seasonality by fitting harmonic and Poisson regression models. A significant yearly seasonal risk of introduction that lasted around 4 months (November to February) was identified with the highest risk observed in January. The risk for introduction of LPAI viruses in this period was on average four times significantly higher than the period of low risk around the summer months. Although the data for HPAI infections were limited in the period 2014–2018, a similar risk period for introduction of HPAI viruses was observed. The results of this study can be used to optimize risk‐based surveillance and inform decisions on timing and duration of indoor confinement when HPAI viruses are known to circulate in the wild bird population.

Using geospatial methods to measure the risk of environmental persistence of avian influenza virus in South Carolina

Avian influenza (AIV) is a highly contagious virus that can infect both wild birds and domestic poultry. This study aimed to define areas within the state of South Carolina (SC) at heightened risk for environmental persistence of AIV using geospatial methods. Environmental factors known to influence AIV survival were identified through the published literature and using a multi-criteria decision analysis with GIS was performed. Risk was defined using five categories following the World Organization for Animal Health Risk Assessment Guidelines. Less than 1% of 1km grid cells in SC showed a high risk of AIV persistence. Approximately 2% - 17% of counties with high or very high environmental risk also had medium to very high numbers of commercial poultry operations. Results can be used to improve surveillance activities and to inform biosecurity practices and emergency preparedness efforts.

Association of wild bird densities around poultry farms with the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 outbreaks in the Netherlands, 2016

Highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza viruses (AIV) can spread globally through migratory birds and cause massive outbreaks in commercial poultry. AIV outbreaks have been associated with proximity to waterbodies, presence of waterfowl or wild bird cases near poultry farms. In this study, we compared densities of selected HPAI high‐risk wild bird species around 7 locations (H farms) infected with HPAIV H5N8 in the Netherlands in 2016–2017 to densities around 21 non‐infected reference farms. Nine reference farms were in low‐lying water‐rich areas (R‐W) and 12 in higher non‐water‐rich areas (R‐NW). Average monthly numbers/km² of Eurasian wigeons, tufted ducks, Anatidae (ducks, geese and swans) and Laridae (gulls) were calculated between September and April in rings of 0–1, 1–3, 3–6 and 6–10 km around the farms. Linear mixed model analyses showed generally higher bird densities for H and R‐W compared to R‐NW farms between October and March. This was most striking for Eurasian wigeons, with in peak month December 105 (95% CI:17–642) and 40 (7–214) times higher densities around H and R‐W farms, respectively, compared to R‐NW farms. Increased densities around H farms for Eurasian wigeons and Anatidae were more pronounced for distances up to 10 km compared to 0–1 km that mostly consists of the farm yard, which is an unattractive habitat for waterfowl. This distance effect was not observed in gulls, nor in tufted ducks that live on large open waterbodies which are unlikely to be within 0–1 km of farms. This study provides insights into spatio‐temporal density dynamics of HPAI high‐risk birds around farms and their associations with poultry outbreaks. The outcomes indicate that knowledge of environmental and ecological drivers for wild bird presence and abundance may facilitate identification of priority areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures and decisions on establishments of poultry farms to reduce risk of HPAI outbreaks.

A within-host mathematical model of H9N2 avian influenza infection and type-I interferon response pathways in chickens

Chickens infected with avian influenza virus (AIV) transmit the virus via respiratory and cloacal shedding. While previous mathematical models have shown that the innate immune response is necessary for the early suppression of virus production in infected respiratory cells, the different pathways by which the innate immune response can affect cloacal viral shedding have not been studied in chickens. The present study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of H9N2 low pathogenic AIV shedding in chicken gastrointestinal cells to different type-I interferon (IFN) response pathways, and to determine the impact of a cellular eclipse phase (latent period) on the time to peak virus shedding using a mathematical model describing within host viral kinetics. Our model results demonstrate that a mechanistic model that incorporates 1) the intracellular antiviral effects of type-I IFN on virus production, 2) destruction of infected cells by type-I IFN activated Natural Killer cells, and 3) an eclipse phase is most consistent with experimental cloacal virus shedding data. These results provide a potential mechanistic explanation for the delay to peak cloacal virus shedding observed in experimental studies conducted in chickens, as well as an improved understanding of the primary type-I IFN pathways involved in the control of cloacal virus shedding, which may lead to the development of more targeted vaccine candidates.

Major difference in clinical outcome and replication of a H3N1 avian influenza strain in young pullets and adult layers

In this study, we investigated the pathogenicity, replication and tropism of the low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strain A/chicken/Belgium/460/2019(H3N1) in adult SPF layers and young SPF males. The inoculated hens showed 58% mortality and a 100% drop in egg production in the second week post inoculation. The high viral loads in the cloacal samples coincided with the period of the positive immunohistochemistry of the oviduct, acute peritonitis and time of mortality, suggesting that the replication of H3N1 in the oviduct was a major component of the onset of clinical disease and increased level of excretion of the virus. In the inoculated young birds, the clinical signs were very mild with the exception of one bird. The results suggest that the time of replication of the virus was much shorter than in the adult layers; some of the young males did not show any proof of being infected at all. To conclude, the results of the study in young birds confirmed the intravenous pathogenicity test results but also showed that the clinical signs in adult layers were very severe. Based on the mortality without a bacterial component, complete drop of egg production and post mortem findings, this H3N1 strain is a moderately virulent strain, the highest category for LPAI strains. It is important to realize that if HPAI did not exist, this moderately virulent H3N1 virus would most likely to be considered as a very virulent virus.

Quantification of visits of wild fauna to a commercial free-range layer farm in the Netherlands located in an avian influenza hot-spot area assessed by video-camera monitoring

Free-range poultry farms have a high risk of introduction of avian influenza viruses (AIV), and it is presumed that wild (water) birds are the source of introduction. There is very scarce quantitative data on wild fauna visiting free-range poultry farms. We quantified visits of wild fauna to a free-range area of a layer farm, situated in an AIV hot-spot area, assessed by video-camera monitoring. A total of 5,016 hr (209 days) of video recordings, covering all 12 months of a year, were analysed. A total of 16 families of wild birds and five families of mammals visited the free-range area of the layer farm. Wild birds, except for the dabbling ducks, visited the free-range area almost exclusively in the period between sunrise and the moment the chickens entered the free-range area. Known carriers of AIV visited the outdoor facility regularly: species of gulls almost daily in the period January-August; dabbling ducks only in the night in the period November-May, with a distinct peak in the period December-February. Only a small fraction of visits of wild fauna had overlap with the presence of chickens at the same time in the free-range area. No direct contact between chickens and wild birds was observed. It is hypothesized that AIV transmission to poultry on free-range poultry farms will predominantly take place via indirect contact: taking up AIV by chickens via wild-bird-faeces-contaminated water or soil in the free-range area. The free-range poultry farmer has several possibilities to potentially lower the attractiveness of the free-range area for wild (bird) fauna: daily inspection of the free-range area and removal of carcasses and eggs; prevention of forming of water pools in the free-range facility. Furthermore, there are ways to scare-off wild birds, for example use of laser equipment or trained dogs.

Annual Report on surveillance for avian influenza in poultry and wild birds in Member States of the European Union in 2018

Avian influenza (AI) is a viral infectious disease that affects all species of domestic and wild birds. The viruses causing this disease can be of high (HPAI) or low (LPAI) pathogenicity and represent a continuous threat to poultry in Europe. Council Directive 2005/94/EC requests EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Therefore, MSs and Switzerland have implemented surveillance programmes to yearly monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission, to collate, validate, analyse and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes. This is the first report produced under this mandate summarising the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2018. Overall 18,596 poultry establishments were sampled, of which 43 were seropositive for H5 AI and two for H7 AI. Seropositive establishments were found in 11 MSs, with the highest percentage of seropositive establishments being found in waterfowl gamebird, and geese and duck breeding establishments. A total of 9,145 dead/moribund wild birds were sampled, with 163 birds testing positive to HPAI virus H5N6. The infected birds were reported by eight MSs and were mostly found between January and April 2018. In this report, the wild bird species affected with HPAI are described and the strategy of targeted sampling is assessed. The crude odds ratio of HPAI detection as a function of the target species (species belonging to the list of target species versus species not belonging to the target list) is presented. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2018 are also discussed in relation to findings from previous years and current knowledge on the epidemiology of AI in Europe.

Global patterns of avian influenza A (H7): virus evolution and zoonotic threats

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to impose a negative impact on animal and human health worldwide. In particular, the emergence of highly pathogenic AIV H5 and, more recently, the emergence of low pathogenic AIV H7N9 have led to enormous socioeconomical losses in the poultry industry and resulted in fatal human infections. While H5N1 remains infamous, the number of zoonotic infections with H7N9 has far surpassed those attributed to H5. Despite the clear public health concerns posed by AIV H7, it is unclear why specifically this virus subtype became endemic in poultry and emerged in humans. In this review, we bring together data on global patterns of H7 circulation, evolution and emergence in humans. Specifically, we discuss data from the wild bird reservoir, expansion and epidemiology in poultry, significant increase in their zoonotic potential since 2013 and genesis of highly pathogenic H7. In addition, we analysed available sequence data from an evolutionary perspective, demonstrating patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions and reassortment dynamics. The integration of all aspects is crucial in the optimisation of surveillance efforts in wild birds, poultry and humans, and we emphasise the need for a One Health approach in controlling emerging viruses such as AIV H7.

Circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands, 2006-2016

In this study, we explore the circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands. Surveillance data collected between 2006 and 2016 was used to evaluate subtype diversity, spatiotemporal distribution and genetic relationships between wild bird and poultry viruses. We observed close species-dependent associations among hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes. Not all subtypes detected in wild birds were found in poultry, suggesting transmission to poultry is selective and likely depends on viral factors that determine host range restriction. Subtypes commonly detected in poultry were in wild birds most frequently detected in mallards and geese. Different temporal patterns in virus prevalence were observed between wild bird species. Virus detections in domestic ducks coincided with the prevalence peak in wild ducks, whereas virus detections in other poultry types were made throughout the year. Genetic analysis of the surface genes demonstrated that most poultry viruses were related to locally circulating wild bird viruses, but no direct spatiotemporal link was observed. Results indicate prolonged undetected virus circulation and frequent reassortment events with local and newly introduced viruses within the wild bird population. Increased knowledge on LPAI virus circulation can be used to improve surveillance strategies.

Genetic analysis identifies potential transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses between poultry farms

Poultry can become infected with low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses via (in)direct contact with infected wild birds or by transmission of the virus between farms. This study combines routinely collected surveillance data with genetic analysis to assess the contribution of between‐farm transmission to the overall incidence of LPAI virus infections in poultry. Over a 10‐year surveillance period, we identified 35 potential cases of between‐farm transmission in the Netherlands, of which 10 formed geographical clusters. A total of 21 LPAI viruses were isolated from nine potential between‐farm transmission cases, which were further studied by genetic and epidemiological analysis. Whole genome sequence analysis identified close genetic links between infected farms in seven cases. The presence of identical deletions in the neuraminidase stalk region and minority variants provided additional indications of between‐farm transmission. Spatiotemporal analysis demonstrated that genetically closely related viruses were detected within a median time interval of 8 days, and the median distance between the infected farms was significantly shorter compared to farms infected with genetically distinct viruses (6.3 versus 69.0 km; p < 0.05). The results further suggest that between‐farm transmission was not restricted to holdings of the same poultry type and not related to the housing system. Although separate introductions from the wild bird reservoir cannot be excluded, our study indicates that between‐farm transmission occurred in seven of nine virologically analysed cases. Based on these findings, it is likely that between‐farm transmission contributes considerably to the incidence of LPAI virus infections in poultry.

Spatial modelling for low pathogenicity avian influenza virus at the interface of wild birds and backyard poultry

Low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) is endemic in wild birds and poultry in Argentina, and active surveillance has been in place to prevent any eventual virus mutation into a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), which is exotic in this country. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but it has proven a very challenging task in the absence of disease data. We used a combination of expert opinion elicitation, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify the most suitable areas for the occurrence of LPAIV at the interface between backyard domestic poultry and wild birds in Argentina. This was achieved by calculating a spatially explicit risk index. As evidenced by the validation and sensitivity analyses, our model was successful in identifying high-risk areas for LPAIV occurrence. Also, we show that the risk for virus occurrence is significantly higher in areas closer to commercial poultry farms. Although the active surveillance systems have been successful in detecting LPAIV-positive backyard farms and wild birds in Argentina, our predictions suggest that surveillance efforts in those compartments could be improved by including high-risk areas identified by our model. Our research provides a tool to guide surveillance activities in the future, and presents a mixed methodological approach which could be implemented in areas where the disease is exotic or rare and a knowledge-driven modelling method is necessary.

Reporting Avian Influenza surveillance

Avian influenza viruses infect domestic poultry and wild birds as well as humans. In poultry, depending on whether these viruses are of high pathogenicity (HPAI) or low pathogenicity (LPAI), the infection can cause different clinical signs, with HPAI causing high mortality in poultry flocks. In order to ensure early detection of avian influenza viruses, surveillance in poultry and wild birds is considered essential. In 2010, the European Commission provided some guidelines to Member States (MSs) on how this surveillance should be carried out, both in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the Commission to collate, validate, analyse, and summarise in an annual report the data resulting from the ongoing avian influenza surveillance programmes established in the different MSs. To deliver on this mandate, EFSA, in collaboration with the Standing Working Group on AI, initiated its activities with the drafting of a scientific report where the future vision of this collection framework was presented. Initial and later drafts of this report were shared with MS representatives in order to get feedback on the practicalities concerning the collection and submission of avian influenza surveillance data to EFSA. In the present report, the data that MSs are legally requested to submit to EFSA (‘mandatory’) and also the data that would be important to collect in order to optimise the outputs (‘desirable’) are described. A number of actions that would lead to the optimal data collection are also presented and the added value to MSs is discussed. A step‐by‐step implementation of the outlined actions is anticipated, with a description of the initial collection framework for 2019 being included in this report.

The Geographic Variation of Surveillance and Zoonotic Spillover Potential of Influenza Viruses in Domestic Poultry and Swine

Background

Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts.

Methods

We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities.

Results

Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively.

Conclusions

Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.

Prime-boost vaccination strategy against avian influenza and Newcastle disease viruses reduces shedding of the challenge viruses

In the present study, we carried-out assessment of efficacy of different immunization strategies using two bivalent vaccine formulations containing antigens of inactivated Newcastle disease virus (NDV-genotype VIId) and reassortant highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1-HPAIV) mixed with Montanide ISA71 and Montanide Gel02 as adjuvants. The efficacy of the prepared vaccines was evaluated by determining the cellular and humoral immune responses. In addition, protection against H5N1-AIV and NDV-genotype VIId challenge viruses post vaccination was assessed when Montanide-Gel02 based vaccine was inoculated in 10-days-old specific pathogen free chicks intraocularly once, twice or once followed by a boost with the Montanide ISA71 based vaccine. The cytokines profile analysis demonstrated that the prime-boost strategy induced the highest up-regulation in interferon-gamma (11.39-fold change) and interleukin-6 (14.12-fold change) genes expression. Also, enhanced lymphocytes proliferation was recorded beside increased antibody titers with protection levels reaching 50 and 60% against H5N1 and NDV challenge; respectively. Immunization with Montanide ISA71 inactivated vaccine induced 80% protection; however, the prime-boost combination afforded complete protection (100%) in the challenged chickens against mortality, clinical signs and virus shedding. Finally, these results highlight the significance of considering not only different vaccine platforms but also vaccination strategies to maximize protection against AIV and NDV with regards to the longevity of the vaccine-induced immune response.

Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models

The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest. We used observations on the presence of Low Pathogenic Avian influenza virus (LPAI) in waterfowl or water samples at 355 locations throughout the state and environmental variables relevant to the disease epidemiology. We used two algorithms, Random Forest and MaxEnt, and two data-sets Presence-Background and Presence-Absence data. The models performed well (AUCc > 0.7 for testing data), particularly those using Presence-Background data (AUCc > 0.85). Spatial predictions were similar between algorithms, but there were large differences between the predictions with Presence-Absence and Presence-Background data. Overall, predictors that contributed most to the models included land cover, distance to coast, and broiler farm density. Models successfully identified several counties as high-to-intermediate risk out of the 8 counties with observed outbreaks during the 2014-2015 HPAI epizootics. This study provides further insights into the spatial epidemiology of AI in California, and the high spatial resolution maps may be useful to guide risk-based surveillance and outreach efforts.

Avian influenza

Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become infected. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may reach similar maximum prevalence levels in wild bird populations to HPAIV but the risk of LPAIV infection of a poultry holding was estimated to be lower than that of HPAIV. Only few non-wild bird pathways were identified having a non-negligible risk of AI introduction. The transmission rate between animals within a flock is assessed to be higher for HPAIV than LPAIV. In very few cases, it could be proven that HPAI outbreaks were caused by intrinsic mutation of LPAIV to HPAIV but current knowledge does not allow a prediction as to if, and when this could occur. In gallinaceous poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality was identified as the most effective method for early detection of HPAI outbreaks. For effective surveillance in anseriform poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality needs to be accompanied by serological surveillance and/or a virological surveillance programme of birds found dead (bucket sampling). Serosurveillance is unfit for early warning of LPAI outbreaks at the individual holding level but could be effective in tracing clusters of LPAIV-infected holdings. In wild birds, passive surveillance is an appropriate method for HPAIV surveillance if the HPAIV infections are associated with mortality whereas active wild bird surveillance has a very low efficiency for detecting HPAIV. Experts estimated and emphasised the effect of implementing specific biosecurity measures on reducing the probability of AIV entering into a poultry holding. Human diligence is pivotal to select, implement and maintain specific, effective biosecurity measures.