Age-period-cohort analysis of pancreatitis epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts for 2044: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Temporal trends in gender, etiology, severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis in a third-tier Chinese city from 2013 to 2021

BACKGROUND

To evaluate temporal trends in gender, etiology, severity, outcomes, cost and median length of stay (MLS) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) in a third-tier Chinese city.

METHODS

Patients with AP admitted to a university hospital between January 2013 and December 2021. Relationships between etiology, prevalence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and survey years were investigated by joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 5459 (male 62.3%) patients with AP were included. Between January 2013 and December 2021, we observed: (a) the prevalence of biliary diseases-related AP was stable, while the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia (HTG)-associated AP (Ptrend = 0.04) and alcohol-associated AP (Ptrend < 0.0001) both increased; (b) there was an increase in crude prevalence of SAP from 4.97% to 12.2% between 2013 and 2021 (Ptrend < 0.0001); (c) compared to female populations, male gender had a higher prevalence of AP; (d) there was a decrease in MLS from 11 days to 8 days (Ptrend < 0.0001) and in median cost of hospitalization (MCH) for all patients (from 20,166 to 12,845 YUAN) (Ptrend < 0.0001); (e) the overall in-hospital mortality rate was 1.28% (70/5459) for patients with AP. There was no statistically significant in the time trend of mortality during the study period (Ptrend = 0.5873). At multivariate analysis, survey year was associated with prevalence of SAP after adjustment by age and biliary diseases (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.03-1.12). Based on the stratification by severity of disease, the decrease of MLS and MCH was more significant in non-SAP vs. SAP patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the observational period, the proportion of male patients with AP, prevalence of age-adjusted rate of HTG and alcohol-associated AP and SAP increased, while MLS and MCH for all patients decreased, and the time trend of mortality of AP was stable.

Global incidence and mortality of pancreatitis in women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2021

To analyze the global burden of pancreatitis in women of childbearing age (WCBA) at the global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2021. Data for pancreatitis incidence and deaths in females aged 15 to 49 years were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to describe the temporal trends. In 2021, the global numbers of incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis in the WCBA were 505,012 (409,536 to 627,684) and 7,002 (5,647 to 8,857), respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence and death rates of pancreatitis in the WCBA showed downward trends, with EAPCs of -0.15 (-0.21 to -0.09) and - 0.42 (-0.58 to -0.26), respectively. The most significant decreases in incidence and death rates were observed among females aged 40 to 44 years. Eastern Europe had the highest incidence and death rates in 2021. Countries with high socio-demographic index (SDI) showed the highest incidence rate, while showed greatest decrease in incidence during the past 32 years. The global pancreatitis incidence and death in WCBA has decreased since 1990, but the incidence is still high in countries with high-SDI. More efficient public health measures are needed to reduce the burden of pancreatitis.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Pancreatitis in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Pancreatitis, an inflammatory condition of the pancreas, poses a significant global health burden. This study provides up-to-date global, regional, and national estimates of pancreatitis burdens from 1990 to 2021, focusing on disparities and trends across regions, age groups, and sexes.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were analyzed to assess the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with pancreatitis. Trends over the 32-year period were examined across demographics and geographic regions. Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

In 2021, the age-standardized rates (95% uncertainty interval) per 100,000 population for pancreatitis were: prevalence 69.0 (51.3, 91.3), incidence 32.8 (28.9, 37.4), deaths 1.5 (1.3, 1.7), and DALYs 48.4 (43.1, 55.3). Eastern Europe had the highest burden, led by the Russian Federation. From 1990 to 2021, global pancreatitis burden decreased with AAPCs (95% CI) of - 1.0% (- 1.1%, - 1.0%) for prevalence, - 0.4% (- 0.5%, - 0.4%) for incidence, - 0.5% (- 0.6%, - 0.3%) for deaths, and - 0.5% (- 0.6%, - 0.4%) for DALYs. Most regions showed declines, except Eastern Europe and parts of Africa. The elderly, particularly those aged 65 and older, faced the highest burden. An upward incidence trend was noted in those aged 15 to 25. Men exhibited higher burden rates, with the peak burden occurring at younger ages compared to women. High alcohol use contributed to 15.2% of deaths and 17.0% of DALYs related to pancreatitis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers a comprehensive assessment of the global burden of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2021. Despite an overall decline, significant regional and demographic disparities persist, with Eastern Europe remaining disproportionately affected. The high burden among the elderly and rising incidence among the young highlight the need for targeted prevention, early detection, and management strategies.

Predictive Value of Several Parameters for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in a Cohort of 172 Patients

Background: The optimal management of patients with acute pancreatitis is directly related to the early detection of the mild, moderate, or severe forms of the disease, which remains a continuous challenge despite the availability of various severity scores. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors with the highest predictive value specific to the local patients and elaborate the score to identify the severe cases. Materials and Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study included 172 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Personal, clinical, laboratory, and imaging factors and their influence on the severity of acute pancreatitis were evaluated. Results: Etiology nonA-nonB (any etiology except unique alcoholic or biliary etiology), presence of diabetes mellitus, the pain Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), White Blood Cells (WBCs), and CRP (C-reactive protein) levels were found to be directly associated with the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Prediction scores were calculated to estimate disease severity using the following regression equations: Prediction Acute Pancreatitis Severity (PAPS) score I = 1.237 + 0.144 × nonA-nonB (0 = no, 1 = yes) + 0.001 × WBC1 + 0.027 × VAS0 and PAPS score II = 1.189 + 0.001 × CRP (mg/L) + 0.135 × nonA-nonB etiology (0 = no, 1 = yes) + 0.025 × VAS0 - 0.047 × CA1. The PAPS Score II demonstrated the best performance. At a cut-off value of 1.248, the score had 80% sensitivity, 80.9% specificity, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 28.6%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.7%, and an accuracy of 80.8%. For a cut-off value of 221.5 mg/L, the accuracy of CRP was 81.4% for predicting severe AP. Conclusions: The PAPS score II is an easy-to-use, fast, and affordable score for determining cases of severe disease for patients diagnosed with AP.

Artificial Intelligence in Pancreatic Imaging: A Systematic Review

The rising incidence of pancreatic diseases, including acute and chronic pancreatitis and various pancreatic neoplasms, poses a significant global health challenge. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) for example, has a high mortality rate due to late-stage diagnosis and its inaccessible location. Advances in imaging technologies, though improving diagnostic capabilities, still necessitate biopsy confirmation. Artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning and deep learning, has emerged as a revolutionary force in healthcare, enhancing diagnostic precision and personalizing treatment. This narrative review explores Artificial intelligence's role in pancreatic imaging, its technological advancements, clinical applications, and associated challenges. Following the PRISMA-DTA guidelines, a comprehensive search of databases including PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Library was conducted, focusing on Artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, and radiomics in pancreatic imaging. Articles involving human subjects, written in English, and published up to March 31, 2024, were included. The review process involved title and abstract screening, followed by full-text review and refinement based on relevance and novelty. Recent Artificial intelligence advancements have shown promise in detecting and diagnosing pancreatic diseases. Deep learning techniques, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have been effective in detecting and segmenting pancreatic tissues as well as differentiating between benign and malignant lesions. Deep learning algorithms have also been used to predict survival time, recurrence risk, and therapy response in pancreatic cancer patients. Radiomics approaches, extracting quantitative features from imaging modalities such as CT, MRI, and endoscopic ultrasound, have enhanced the accuracy of these deep learning models. Despite the potential of Artificial intelligence in pancreatic imaging, challenges such as legal and ethical considerations, algorithm transparency, and data security remain. This review underscores the transformative potential of Artificial intelligence in enhancing the diagnosis and treatment of pancreatic diseases, ultimately aiming to improve patient outcomes and survival rates.

Distribution, Risk Factors and Epidemiological Trends of Pancreatic Cancer Across Countries' Income Levels: A Comprehensive Analysis

BACKGROUND

Globally, pancreatic cancer poses a significant concern for public health.

AIMS

The objective of this study was to assess the burden of pancreatic cancer on varying income levels.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita data were utilised in this study. All countries were categorised into four groups based on their income levels. Age-standardised incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were the primary parameters to analyse the burden of pancreatic cancer. The associations between pancreatic cancer burden and countries' economic levels were analysed with linear regression models. High-income-level countries generally had a higher burden compared to other income levels in 2021. Greenland had the highest rate of age-standardised DALYs at 374.93 per 100 000, followed by Uruguay (297.06) and Monaco (290.87). A higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was linked to a higher age-standardised incidence (β = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.63, 0.90, p < 0.001), mortality (β = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.86, p < 0.001) and DALYs (β = 14.59, 95% CI = 11.38, 17.80, p < 0.001). From 1990 to 2021, the pancreatic cancer burden increased across all income levels, with the most pronounced rise seen in lower-middle-income countries. Smoking-related age-standardised DALYs have decreased since 1990. However, there was a notable increase in males in upper-middle-income countries during the same period.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the pancreatic cancer burden has been increasing globally. The burden of pancreatic cancer varies significantly among countries with different income levels. Effective preventions are needed to control the burden of pancreatic cancer.

Systematic analysis and prediction of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections attribute to non-optimal temperature, 1990-2019

Background

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain one of the most deadly infectious diseases in the world, and non-optimal temperature is a risk factor for LRIs. The aim of this study was to analyze the global burden of LRI attribute to non-optimal temperature and its trends from 1990 to 2019, and to project long-term trends.

Methods

Excerpts from the release of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which analyses the burden of lower respiratory infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 using data on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs); explores differences across regions, populations and seasons, and projects future trends in burden.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, there is a significant downward trend in the global burden of deaths and DALYs, but it remains high in infants and young children, the older adult, African countries and LOW SDI regions. Differences in geographical risk factors and economic levels lead to heterogeneous disease burdens across regions. In 2019, low SDI regions will have the highest burden, but high SDI regions will have the highest number of deaths. In addition, increasing SDI values were associated with decreasing trends in age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years. BAPC model projections suggest a downward trend in the future burden of death and DALYs from the disease, but the improvement in the burden of death for women was not significant.

Conclusion

Our study comprehensively elucidates the distribution and dynamic trends in the burden of lower respiratory tract infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 along multiple dimensions. The burden of deaths and DALYs showed an overall decreasing trend, but the improvement was uneven in different regions. In addition, the results suggest that efforts should be made to reduce lower respiratory health losses in infants, young children, and older adult populations. Effective public health policies and interventions to reduce the burden of lower respiratory tract infections should be sustained globally.

Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods

Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline.

Conclusion

Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.

Neutrophil-Creatinine Index: A New Prognostic Factor for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Background and Objectives: Determining the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) is the main goal in the early stage of AP. The aim of this study was to compare laboratory parameters and indices, including the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the neutrophil-creatinine index (NCI), at admission in order to predict the severity of AP. Materials and Methods: Data from 421 patients who were admitted with a diagnosis of AP were collected retrospectively. Disease severity was assessed using the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). BISAP was graded as mild and severe, and RAC was graded as mild (MAP), moderately severe (MSAP), and severe (SAP). The laboratory parameters and indices, including the NLR and NCI, were compared. Results: Of the patients, 70 (16.6%) had severe AP according to BISAP; the AP subgroups according to the RAC were as follows: MAP (n = 213), MSAP (n = 158), and SAP (n = 50). The NCI had the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve value (0.862), demonstrating severe disease according to BISAP, with a sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 79.8%. Age (OR:1.046), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR:1.141), hematocrit (OR:1.081), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR:1.040), and NCI (OR:1.076) were independently associated with severe disease, according to the multivariate analysis results, and were determined as components of the newly developed nomogram. The AUROC of the nomogram (0.891) was superior to the AUROCs of all the components of the nomogram except the NCI. Moreover, the NCI was the only parameter to distinguish MSAP from MAP (OR:1.119, 95% CI: 1.015-1.235, p = 0.023) and SAP from MSAP (OR:1.095, 95% CI: 1.031-1.162, p = 0.003). Conclusions: The present study enabled the identification of the neutrophil-creatinine index as a new prognostic tool for the assessment of AP severity at hospital admission.