Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.

RESULTS

The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Variation in herbivore space use: comparing two savanna ecosystems with different anthrax outbreak patterns in southern Africa

BACKGROUND

The distribution of resources can affect animal range sizes, which in turn may alter infectious disease dynamics in heterogenous environments. The risk of pathogen exposure or the spatial extent of outbreaks may vary with host range size. This study examined the range sizes of herbivorous anthrax host species in two ecosystems and relationships between spatial movement behavior and patterns of disease outbreaks for a multi-host environmentally transmitted pathogen.

METHODS

We examined range sizes for seven host species and the spatial extent of anthrax outbreaks in Etosha National Park, Namibia and Kruger National Park, South Africa, where the main host species and outbreak sizes differ. We evaluated host range sizes using the local convex hull method at different temporal scales, within-individual temporal range overlap, and relationships between ranging behavior and species contributions to anthrax cases in each park. We estimated the spatial extent of annual anthrax mortalities and evaluated whether the extent was correlated with case numbers of a given host species.

RESULTS

Range size differences among species were not linearly related to anthrax case numbers. In Kruger the main host species had small range sizes and high range overlap, which may heighten exposure when outbreaks occur within their ranges. However, different patterns were observed in Etosha, where the main host species had large range sizes and relatively little overlap. The spatial extent of anthrax mortalities was similar between parks but less variable in Etosha than Kruger. In Kruger outbreaks varied from small local clusters to large areas and the spatial extent correlated with case numbers and species affected. Secondary host species contributed relatively few cases to outbreaks; however, for these species with large range sizes, case numbers positively correlated with outbreak extent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide new information on the spatiotemporal structuring of ranging movements of anthrax host species in two ecosystems. The results linking anthrax dynamics to host space use are correlative, yet suggest that, though partial and proximate, host range size and overlap may be contributing factors in outbreak characteristics for environmentally transmitted pathogens.

Development of conjugated secondary antibodies for wildlife disease surveillance

Disease monitoring in free-ranging wildlife is a challenge and often relies on passive surveillance. Alternatively, proactive surveillance that relies on the detection of specific antibodies could give more reliable and timely insight into disease presence and prevalence in a population, especially if the evidence of disease occurs below detection thresholds for passive surveillance. Primary binding assays, like the indirect ELISA for antibody detection in wildlife, are hampered by a lack of species-specific conjugates. In this study, we developed anti-kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) and anti-impala (Aepyceros melampus) immunoglobulin-specific conjugates in chickens and compared them to the binding of commercially available protein-G and protein-AG conjugates, using an ELISA-based avidity index. The conjugates were evaluated for cross-reaction with sera from other wild herbivores to assess future use in ELISAs. The developed conjugates had a high avidity of >70% against kudu and impala sera. The commercial conjugates (protein-G and protein-AG) had significantly low relative avidity (<20%) against these species. Eighteen other wildlife species demonstrated cross-reactivity with a mean relative avidity of >50% with the impala and kudu conjugates and <40% with the commercial conjugates. These results demonstrate that species-specific conjugates are important tools for the development and validation of immunoassays in wildlife and for the surveillance of zoonotic agents along the livestock-wildlife-human interface.

Climate Change Helps Polar Invasives Establish and Flourish: Evidence from Long-Term Monitoring of the Blowfly Calliphora vicina

The isolated sub-Antarctic islands are of major ecological interest because of their unique species diversity and long history of limited human disturbance. However, since the presence of Europeans, these islands and their sensitive biota have been under increasing pressure due to human activity and associated biological invasions. In such delicate ecosystems, biological invasions are an exceptional threat that may be further amplified by climate change. We examined the invasion trajectory of the blowfly Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy 1830). First introduced in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the 1970s, it is thought to have persisted only in sheltered microclimates for several decades. Here, we show that, in recent decades, C. vicina has been able to establish itself more widely. We combine experimental thermal developmental data with long-term ecological and meteorological monitoring to address whether warming conditions help explain its current success and dynamics in the eastern Kerguelen Islands. We found that warming temperatures and accumulated degree days could explain the species' phenological and long-term invasion dynamics, indicating that climate change has likely assisted its establishment. This study represents a unique long-term view of a polar invader and stresses the rapidly increasing susceptibility of cold regions to invasion under climate change.

Characterization of Bacillus anthracis replication and persistence on environmental substrates associated with wildlife anthrax outbreaks

Anthrax is a zoonosis caused by the environmentally maintained, spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, affecting humans, livestock, and wildlife nearly worldwide. Bacterial spores are ingested, inhaled, and may be mechanically transmitted by biting insects or injection as occurs during heroin-associated human cases. Herbivorous hoofstock are very susceptible to anthrax. When these hosts die of anthrax, a localized infectious zone (LIZ) forms in the area surrounding the carcass as it is scavenged and decomposes, where viable populations of vegetative B. anthracis and spores contaminate the environment. In many settings, necrophagous flies contaminate the outer carcass, surrounding soils, and vegetation with viable pathogen while scavenging. Field observations in Texas have confirmed this process and identified primary browse species (e.g., persimmon) are contaminated. However, there are limited data available on B. anthracis survival on environmental substrates immediately following host death at a LIZ. Toward this, we simulated fly contamination by inoculating live-attenuated, fully virulent laboratory-adapted, and fully virulent wild B. anthracis strains on untreated leaves and rocks for 2, 5, and 7 days. At each time point after inoculation, the number of vegetative cells and spores were determined. Sporulation rates were extracted from these different time points to enable comparison of sporulation speeds between B. anthracis strains with different natural histories. We found all B. anthracis strains used in this study could multiply for 2 or more days post inoculation and persist on leaves and rocks for at least seven days with variation by strain. We found differences in sporulation rates between laboratory-adapted strains and wild isolates, with the live-attenuated strain sporulating fastest, followed by the wild isolates, then laboratory-adapted virulent strains. Extrapolating our wild strain lab results to potential contamination, a single blow fly may contaminate leaves with up to 8.62 x 105 spores per day and a single carcass may host thousands of flies. Replication outside of the carcass and rapid sporulation confirms the LIZ extends beyond the carcass for several days after formation and supports the necrophagous fly transmission pathway for amplifying cases during an outbreak. We note caution must be taken when extrapolating replication and sporulation rates from live-attenuated and laboratory-adapted strains of B. anthracis.

Synanthropic Flies-A Review Including How They Obtain Nutrients, along with Pathogens, Store Them in the Crop and Mechanisms of Transmission

An attempt has been made to provide a broad review of synanthropic flies and, not just a survey of their involvement in human pathogen transmission. It also emphasizes that the crop organ of calliphorids, sarcophagids, and muscids was an evolutionary development and has served and assisted non-blood feeding flies in obtaining food, as well as pathogens, prior to the origin of humans. Insects are believed to be present on earth about 400 million years ago (MYA). Thus, prior to the origin of primates, there was adequate time for these flies to become associated with various animals and to serve as important transmitters of pathogens associated with them prior to the advent of early hominids and modern humans. Through the process of fly crop regurgitation, numerous pathogens are still readily being made available to primates and other animals. Several studies using invertebrate-derived DNA = iDNA meta-techniques have been able to identify, not only the source the fly had fed on, but also if it had fed on their feces or the animal's body fluids. Since these flies are known to feed on both vertebrate fluids (i.e., from wounds, saliva, mucus, or tears), as well as those of other animals, and their feces, identification of the reservoir host, amplification hosts, and associated pathogens is essential in identifying emerging infectious diseases. New molecular tools, along with a focus on the crop, and what is in it, should provide a better understanding and development of whether these flies are involved in emerging infectious diseases. If so, epidemiological models in the future might be better at predicting future epidemics or pandemics.

Immunological Evidence of Variation in Exposure and Immune Response to Bacillus anthracis in Herbivores of Kruger and Etosha National Parks

Exposure and immunity to generalist pathogens differ among host species and vary across spatial scales. Anthrax, caused by a multi-host bacterial pathogen, Bacillus anthracis, is enzootic in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa and Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia. These parks share many of the same potential host species, yet the main anthrax host in one (greater kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in KNP and plains zebra (Equus quagga) in ENP) is only a minor host in the other. We investigated species and spatial patterns in anthrax mortalities, B. anthracis exposure, and the ability to neutralize the anthrax lethal toxin to determine if observed host mortality differences between locations could be attributed to population-level variation in pathogen exposure and/or immune response. Using serum collected from zebra and kudu in high and low incidence areas of each park (18- 20 samples/species/area), we estimated pathogen exposure from anti-protective antigen (PA) antibody response using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and lethal toxin neutralization with a toxin neutralization assay (TNA). Serological evidence of pathogen exposure followed mortality patterns within each system (kudus: 95% positive in KNP versus 40% in ENP; zebras: 83% positive in ENP versus 63% in KNP). Animals in the high-incidence area of KNP had higher anti-PA responses than those in the low-incidence area, but there were no significant differences in exposure by area within ENP. Toxin neutralizing ability was higher for host populations with lower exposure prevalence, i.e., higher in ENP kudus and KNP zebras than their conspecifics in the other park. These results indicate that host species differ in their exposure to and adaptive immunity against B. anthracis in the two parks. These patterns may be due to environmental differences such as vegetation, rainfall patterns, landscape or forage availability between these systems and their interplay with host behavior (foraging or other risky behaviors), resulting in differences in exposure frequency and dose, and hence immune response.

Comparing the efficacy of nutmeg essential oil and a chemical pesticide against Musca domestica and Chrysomya albiceps for selecting a new insecticide agent against synantropic vectors

The insecticidal activity of Myristica fragrans (Houtt) essential seed oil, (Nutmeg) was evaluated against Musca domestica (Linnaeus) and Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann); both important infectious pathogenic disease vectors. The oil was extracted by distillation, and 21 components were identified during chemical analysis; principally β-pinene (26%), α-pinene (10.5%), Sabinene (9.1%) and γ-terpinen (8.5%). Insecticidal properties were identified through larvicide and adulticide tests. Using the immersion method, the oil at 5% was found to be very effective (90 ± 1%) against M. domestica larvae. The results for adulticide activity varied by fly species, dosage, time, and method of exposure. Topical application (on the insect thorax) was more toxic to C. albiceps, where the lethal concentration at 50% (LC₅₀) was 2.02 ± 0.56, and 8.57 ± 2.41 for the common flies. When the insects were exposed to oil impregnated paper, the results were similar for M. domestica and C. albiceps adults with respective LC₅₀ values of 2.74 ± 0.24, and 3.65 ± 0.48. Thus, the results demonstrated that M. fragrans oil presents insecticidal activity and can be used for control of Musca domestica and Chrysomya albiceps.

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa

BACKGROUND

Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d'Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Georeferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche-and consequently in geographic distribution-between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens.

Coalescence modeling of intrainfection Bacillus anthracis populations allows estimation of infection parameters in wild populations

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For B. anthracis and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host-pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of B. anthracis in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of B. anthracis to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra (Equus quagga). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.

A survey of bacteria associated with various life stages of primary colonizers: Lucilia sericata and Phormia regina

Blow flies are common primary colonizers of carrion, play an important role in the transfer of microbes between environments, and serve as a vector for many human pathogens. While some investigation has begun regarding the bacteria associated with different life stages of blow flies, a well replicated study is currently not available for the majority of blow flies. This study investigated bacteria associated with successive life stages of blow fly species Lucilia sericata and Phormia regina. A total of 38 samples were collected from four true replicates of L. sericata and P. regina. Variable region four (V4) of 16S ribosomal DNA (16S rDNA) was amplified and sequenced on MiSeq FGx sequencing platform using universal 16S rDNA primers and dual-index sequencing strategy. Bacterial communities associated with different life stages of L. sericata and P. regina didn't differ significantly from each other. In both blow fly species, Bacilli (e.g., Lactococcus) and Gammaproteobacteria (e.g., Providencia) constituted >95% of all bacterial classes across all life stages. At the genus level, Vagococcus and Leuconostoc were present at relatively high abundances in L. sericata whereas Yersinia and Proteus were present at comparatively high abundances in P. regina. Overall, information on bacterial structures associated with various life stages of blow flies can help scientists in better understanding or management of vector-borne pathogen dispersal and in increasing the accuracy of microbial evidence based postmortem interval (PMI) prediction models.