Seroepidemiologic survey of epidemic cholera in Haiti to assess spectrum of illness and risk factors for severe disease

Cholera outbreak in Mayotte (France): A retrospective description of 16 patients treated for hypovolemia in the ICU

OBJECTIVES

To describe the presentation and therapeutic management of severe cholera in Mayotte (France).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We carried out retrospective data collection. All patients treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) with a confirmed diagnosis of cholera by PCR were studied. Only patients treated for hypovolemia were included.

RESULTS

Out of the 215 confirmed cases of cholera in Mayotte on July 12, 2024, 25 required treatment in the ICU (11.6 %). Among these cases, 16 were treated for hypovolemia (7.4 %), while five patients died of cholera before they could be admitted to hospital (lethality rate 2.3 %). No patient died in hospital. Median patient age was 17 years (4-30) with a sex ratio of 1. Severe diarrhea was the rule with a median of one diarrheal stool every two hours. Clinical severity was characterized by sunken eyes and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 14 (n = 16/16,100 %). Biological severity was determined by profound metabolic acidosis with venous pH < 7.20 (n = 16/16, 100 %). Intravenous fluid therapy was aggressive with a median of 280 mL/kg (230-300) Ringer's lactate solution during the first 48 h.

CONCLUSIONS

Cholera can be a life-threatening infection, with deaths occurring due to severe diarrhea and hypovolemia. From the onset of symptoms, which are sometimes fulminant, patients must be admitted to a care center as soon as possible. We will continue to collect data to create scores that will enable us to better recognize the most severe forms of the disease.

Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population

Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100 infections per case). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population ≥2 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people ≥5 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those ≥5 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.

Strain variation and anomalous climate synergistically influence cholera pandemics

BACKGROUND

Explanations for the genesis and propagation of cholera pandemics since 1817 have remained elusive. Evolutionary pathogen change is presumed to have been a dominant factor behind the 7th "El Tor" pandemic, but little is known to support this hypothesis for preceding pandemics. The role of anomalous climate in facilitating strain replacements has never been assessed. The question is of relevance to guide the understanding of infectious disease emergence today and in the context of climate change.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We investigate the roles of climate and putative strain variation for the 6th cholera pandemic (1899-1923) using newly assembled historical records for climate variables and cholera deaths in provinces of former British India. We compare this historical pandemic with the 7th (El Tor) one and with the temporary emergence of the O139 strain in Bangladesh and globally. With statistical methods for nonlinear time series analysis, we examine the regional synchrony of outbreaks and associations of the disease with regional temperature and rainfall, and with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To establish future expectations and evaluate climate anomalies accompanying historical strain replacements, climate projections are generated with multi-model climate simulations for different 50-year periods. The 6th cholera pandemic featured the striking synchronisation of cholera outbreaks over Bengal during the El Niño event of 1904-07, following the invasion of the Bombay Presidency with a delay of a few years. Accompanying anomalous weather conditions are similar to those related to ENSO during strain replacements and pandemic expansions into Africa and South America in the late 20th century. Rainfall anomalies of 1904-05 at the beginning of the large cholera anomaly fall in the 99th percentile of simulated changes for the regional climate.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Evolutionary pathogen change can act synergistically with climatic conditions in the emergence and propagation of cholera strains. Increased climate variability and extremes under global warming provide windows of opportunity for emerging pathogens.

Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serological surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, although the link between serologically derived infections and medically attended disease incidence-shaped by immunological, behavioral and clinical factors-remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare-seeking and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. Combining the serological trajectories with a reconstructed incidence timeline of symptomatic cholera, we estimated an annual Vibrio cholerae O1 infection incidence rate of 535 per 1,000 population (95% credible interval 514-556), with incidence increasing by age group. Clinic-based surveillance alone underestimated the number of infections and reported cases were not consistently correlated with infection timing. Of the infections, 4 in 3,280 resulted in symptoms, only 1 of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results impart insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the seventh cholera pandemic, where >50% of our study population had an annual V. cholerae O1 infection, and emphasize the potential for a biased view of disease burden and infection risk when depending solely on clinical surveillance data.

Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population

Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population ≥2 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people ≥5 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those ≥5 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.

Seroprevalence of Vibrio cholerae in Adults, Haiti, 2017

In Haiti in 2017, the prevalence of serum vibriocidal antibody titers against Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 among adults was 12.4% in Cerca-la-Source and 9.54% in Mirebalais, suggesting a high recent prevalence of infection. Improved surveillance programs to monitor cholera and guide public health interventions in Haiti are necessary.

Estimating the gap between clinical cholera and true community infections: findings from an integrated surveillance study in an endemic region of Bangladesh

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely rely on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serologic surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, though the link between serologically-derived infections and medically-attended disease - shaped by immunological, behavioral, and clinical factors - remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare seeking, and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. We found >50% of the study population had a V. cholerae O1 infection annually, and infection timing was not consistently correlated with reported cases. Four in 2,340 infections resulted in symptoms, only one of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results provide new insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the 7th cholera pandemic and provide a framework to synthesize serological and clinical surveillance data.

Identifying Recent Cholera Infections Using a Multiplex Bead Serological Assay

Estimates of incidence based on medically attended cholera can be severely biased. Vibrio cholerae O1 leaves a lasting antibody signal and recent advances showed that these can be used to estimate infection incidence rates from cross-sectional serologic data. Current laboratory methods are resource intensive and challenging to standardize across laboratories. A multiplex bead assay (MBA) could efficiently expand the breadth of measured antibody responses and improve seroincidence accuracy. We tested 305 serum samples from confirmed cholera cases (4 to 1083 d postinfection) and uninfected contacts in Bangladesh using an MBA (IgG/IgA/IgM for 7 Vibrio cholerae O1-specific antigens) as well as traditional vibriocidal and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (2 antigens, IgG, and IgA). While postinfection vibriocidal responses were larger than other markers, several MBA-measured antibodies demonstrated robust responses with similar half-lives. Random forest models combining all MBA antibody measures allowed for accurate identification of recent cholera infections (e.g., past 200 days) including a cross-validated area under the curve (cvAUC200) of 92%, with simpler 3 IgG antibody models having similar accuracy. Across infection windows between 45 and 300 days, the accuracy of models trained on MBA measurements was non-inferior to models based on traditional assays. Our results illustrated a scalable cholera serosurveillance tool that can be incorporated into multipathogen serosurveillance platforms. IMPORTANCE Reliable estimates of cholera incidence are challenged by poor clinical surveillance and health-seeking behavior biases. We showed that cross-sectional serologic profiles measured with a high-throughput multiplex bead assay can lead to accurate identification of those infected with pandemic Vibrio cholerae O1, thus allowing for estimates of seroincidence. This provides a new avenue for understanding the epidemiology of cholera, identifying priority areas for cholera prevention/control investments, and tracking progress in the global fight against this ancient disease.

Abundance and biofilm formation capability of Vibrio cholerae in aquatic environment with an emphasis on Hilsha fish (Tenualosa ilisha)

The potentially deadly and sporadic diarrhea-causing agent, Vibrio cholerae, is present in a great number in the freshwater aquatic environment and can be transmitted to humans by different aquatic organisms. In the perspective of Bangladesh, an anadromous fish species Hilsha (Tenualosa ilisha) can act as a transmission vehicle of V. cholerae from the aquatic to the household kitchen environment. The present study was carried out to investigate the presence of V. cholerae in the aquatic habitat of Bangladesh with a major emphasis on freshly caught Hilsha fish, along with river water and plankton samples from the fish capture site. The study also detected the biofilm formation capability of V. cholerae within Hilsha fish that might help the transmission and persistence of the pathogen in aquatic habitat. Twenty out of 65 freshly caught fish (30.8%) and 1 out of 15 water samples (6.67%) showed the presence of V. cholerae and none of the plankton samples were positive for V. cholerae. The isolated strains were identified as non-O1 and non-O139 serogroups of V. cholerae and contain some major toxin and virulence genes. A few strains showed cellular cytotoxicity on the HeLa cell line. All strains were able to form biofilm on the microtiter plate and the detection of three genes related to biofilm formation (vpsA, vpsL, and vpsR) were also assayed using qPCR. In this study, the in vitro biofilm formation ability of the isolated strains may indicate the long-term persistence of V. cholerae in different parts of Hilsha fish. The abundance of V. cholerae only in freshly caught Hilsha fish and the absence of the pathogen in the surrounding aquatic environment could stipulate the role of Hilsha fish as one of the major transmission routes of V. cholerae from the freshwater aquatic environment of Bangladesh to the household kitchen environment.

Cholera

Cholera was first described in the areas around the Bay of Bengal and spread globally, resulting in seven pandemics during the past two centuries. It is caused by toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 or O139 bacteria. Cholera is characterised by mild to potentially fatal acute watery diarrhoeal disease. Prompt rehydration therapy is the cornerstone of management. We present an overview of cholera and its pathogenesis, natural history, bacteriology, and epidemiology, while highlighting advances over the past 10 years in molecular epidemiology, immunology, and vaccine development and deployment. Since 2014, the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, a WHO coordinated network of partners, has been working with several countries to develop national cholera control strategies. The global roadmap for cholera control focuses on stopping transmission in cholera hotspots through vaccination and improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, with the aim to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate local transmission in at least 20 countries by 2030.

Protection afforded by previous Vibrio cholerae infection against subsequent disease and infection: A review

BACKGROUND

Cholera is an acute, diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae O1 or 139 that is associated with a high global burden.

METHODS

We analyzed the estimated duration of immunity following cholera infection from available published studies. We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies of the long-term immunity following cholera infection. We identified 22 eligible studies and categorized them as either observational, challenge, or serological.

RESULTS

We found strong evidence of protection at 3 years after infection in observational and challenge studies. However, serological studies show that elevated humoral markers of potential correlates of protection returned to baseline within 1 year. Additionally, a subclinical cholera infection may confer lower protection than a clinical one, as suggested by 3 studies that found that, albeit with small sample sizes, most participants with a subclinical infection from an initial challenge with cholera had a symptomatic infection when rechallenged with a homologous biotype.

CONCLUSIONS

This review underscores the need to elucidate potential differences in the protection provided by clinical and subclinical cholera infections. Further, more studies are warranted to bridge the gap between the correlates of protection and cholera immunity. Understanding the duration of natural immunity to cholera can help guide control strategies and policy.

Vibrio cholerae O1 transmission in Bangladesh: insights from a nationally representative serosurvey

BACKGROUND

Pandemic Vibrio cholerae from cholera-endemic countries around the Bay of Bengal regularly seed epidemics globally. Without reducing cholera in these countries, including Bangladesh, global cholera control might never be achieved. Little is known about the geographical distribution and magnitude of V cholerae O1 transmission nationally. We aimed to describe infection risk across Bangladesh, making use of advances in cholera seroepidemiology, therefore overcoming many of the limitations of current clinic-based surveillance.

METHODS

We tested serum samples from a nationally representative serosurvey in Bangladesh with eight V cholerae-specific assays. Using these data with a machine-learning model previously validated within a cohort of confirmed cholera cases and their household contacts, we estimated the proportion of the population with evidence of infection by V cholerae O1 in the previous year (annual seroincidence) and used Bayesian geostatistical models to create high-resolution national maps of infection risk.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 16, 2015, and Jan 24, 2016, we obtained and tested serum samples from 2930 participants (707 households) in 70 communities across Bangladesh. We estimated national annual seroincidence of V cholerae O1 infection of 17·3% (95% CI 10·5-24·1). Our high-resolution maps showed large heterogeneity of infection risk, with community-level annual infection risk within the sampled population ranging from 4·3% to 62·9%. Across Bangladesh, we estimated that 28·1 (95% CI 17·1-39·2) million infections occurred in the year before the survey. Despite having an annual seroincidence of V cholerae O1 infection lower than much of Bangladesh, Dhaka (the capital of Bangladesh and largest city in the country) had 2·0 (95% CI 0·6-3·9) million infections during the same year, primarily because of its large population.

INTERPRETATION

Serosurveillance provides an avenue for identifying areas with high V cholerae O1 transmission and investigating key risk factors for infection across geographical scales. Serosurveillance could serve as an important method for countries to plan and monitor progress towards 2030 cholera elimination goals.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Risk Factors for Epidemic Cholera in Lusaka, Zambia-2017

On October 6, 2017, the Zambia Ministry of Health declared a cholera outbreak in Lusaka. By December, 1,462 cases and 38 deaths had occurred (case fatality rate, 2.6%). We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors and inform interventions. A case was any person with acute watery diarrhea (≥ 3 loose stools in 24 hours) admitted to a cholera treatment center in Lusaka from December 16 to 21, 2017. Controls were neighbors without diarrhea during the same time period. Up to two controls were matched to each case by age-group (1-4, 5-17, and ≥ 18 years) and neighborhood. Surveyors interviewed cases and controls, tested free chlorine residual (FCR) in stored water, and observed the presence of soap in the home. Conditional logistic regression was used to generate matched odds ratios (mORs) based on subdistricts and age-groups with 95% CIs. We enrolled 82 cases and 132 controls. Stored water in 71% of case homes had an FCR > 0.2 mg/L. In multivariable analyses, those who drank borehole water (mOR = 2.4, CI: 1.1-5.6), had close contact with a cholera case (mOR = 6.2, CI: 2.5-15), and were male (mOR = 2.5, CI: 1.4-5.0) had higher odds of being a cholera case than their matched controls. Based on these findings, we recommended health education about household water chlorination and hygiene in the home. Emergency responses included providing chlorinated water through emergency tanks and maintaining adequate FCR levels through close monitoring of water sources.

Risk and Protective Factors for Cholera Deaths during an Urban Outbreak-Lusaka, Zambia, 2017-2018

The Republic of Zambia declared a cholera outbreak in Lusaka, the capital, on October 6, 2017. By mid-December, 20 of 661 reported cases had died (case fatality rate 3%), prompting the CDC and the Zambian Ministry of Health through the Zambia National Public Health Institute to investigate risk factors for cholera mortality. We conducted a study of cases (cholera deaths from October 2017 to January 2018) matched by age-group and onset date to controls (persons admitted to a cholera treatment center [CTC] and discharged alive). A questionnaire was administered to each survivor (or relative) and to a family member of each decedent. We used univariable exact conditional logistic regression to calculate matched odds ratios (mORs) and 95% CIs. In the analysis, 38 decedents and 76 survivors were included. Median ages for decedents and survivors were 38 (range: 0.5-95) and 25 (range: 1-82) years, respectively. Patients aged > 55 years and those who did not complete primary school had higher odds of being decedents (matched odds ratio [mOR] 6.3, 95% CI: 1.2-63.0, P = 0.03; mOR 8.6, 95% CI: 1.8-81.7, P < 0.01, respectively). Patients who received immediate oral rehydration solution (ORS) at the CTC had lower odds of dying than those who did not receive immediate ORS (mOR 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0-0.6, P = 0.02). Cholera prevention and outbreak response should include efforts focused on ensuring access to timely, appropriate care for older adults and less educated populations at home and in health facilities.

A live vaccine rapidly protects against cholera in an infant rabbit model

Outbreaks of cholera, a rapidly fatal diarrheal disease, often spread explosively. The efficacy of reactive vaccination campaigns-deploying Vibrio cholerae vaccines during epidemics-is partially limited by the time required for vaccine recipients to develop adaptive immunity. We created HaitiV, a live attenuated cholera vaccine candidate, by deleting diarrheagenic factors from a recent clinical isolate of V. cholerae and incorporating safeguards against vaccine reversion. We demonstrate that administration of HaitiV 24 hours before lethal challenge with wild-type V. cholerae reduced intestinal colonization by the wild-type strain, slowed disease progression, and reduced mortality in an infant rabbit model of cholera. HaitiV-mediated protection required viable vaccine, and rapid protection kinetics are not consistent with development of adaptive immunity. These features suggest that HaitiV mediates probiotic-like protection from cholera, a mechanism that is not known to be elicited by traditional vaccines. Mathematical modeling indicates that an intervention that works at the speed of HaitiV-mediated protection could improve the public health impact of reactive vaccination.

Fishing for vaccines against Vibrio cholerae using in silico pan-proteomic reverse vaccinology approach

BACKGROUND

Cholera, an acute enteric infection, is a serious health challenge in both the underdeveloped and the developing world. It is caused by Vibrio cholerae after ingestion of fecal contaminated food or water. Cholera outbreaks have recently been observed in regions facing natural calamities (i.e., earthquake in Haiti 2010) or war (i.e., ongoing civil war in Yemen 2016) where healthcare and sanitary setups have been disrupted as a consequence. Whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been in market but their regimen efficacy has been questioned. A reverse vaccinology (RV) approach has been applied as a successful anti-microbial measure for many infectious diseases.

METHODOLOGY

With the aim of finding new protective antigens for vaccine development, the V. cholerae O1 (biovar eltr str. N16961) proteome was computationally screened in a sequential prioritization approach that focused on determining the antigenicity of potential vaccine candidates. Essential, accessible, virulent and immunogenic proteins were selected as potential candidates. The predicted epitopes were filtered for effective binding with MHC alleles and epitopes binding with greater MHC alleles were selected.

RESULTS

In this study, we report lipoprotein NlpD, outer membrane protein OmpU, accessory colonization factor AcfA, Porin, putative and outer membrane protein OmpW as potential candidates qualifying all the set criteria. These predicted epitopes can offer a potential for development of a reliable peptide or subunit vaccine for V. cholerae.

Cholera Epidemics of the Past Offer New Insights Into an Old Enemy

Background

Although cholera is considered the quintessential long-cycle waterborne disease, studies have emphasized the existence of short-cycle (food, household) transmission. We investigated singular Danish cholera epidemics (in 1853) to elucidate epidemiological parameters and modes of spread.

Methods

Using time series data from cities with different water systems, we estimated the intrinsic transmissibility (R₀). Accessing cause-specific mortality data, we studied clinical severity and age-specific impact. From physicians’ narratives we established transmission chains and estimated serial intervals.

Results

Epidemics were seeded by travelers from cholera-affected cities; initial transmission chains involving household members and caretakers ensued. Cholera killed 3.4%–8.9% of the populations, with highest mortality among seniors (16%) and lowest in children (2.7%). Transmissibility (R₀) was 1.7–2.6 and the serial interval was estimated at 3.7 days (95% confidence interval, 2.9–4.7 days). The case fatality ratio (CFR) was high (54%–68%); using R₀ we computed an adjusted CFR of 4%–5%.

Conclusions

Short-cycle transmission was likely critical to early secondary transmission in historic Danish towns. The outbreaks resembled the contemporary Haiti outbreak with respect to transmissibility, age patterns, and CFR, suggesting a role for broader hygiene/sanitation interventions to control contemporary outbreaks.

Cholera

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review describes the basic epidemiologic, clinical, and microbiologic aspects of cholera, highlights new developments within these areas, and presents strategies for applying currently available tools and knowledge more effectively.

RECENT FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2016, the reported global burden of cholera fluctuated between 74,000 and 595,000 cases per year; however, modeling estimates suggest the real burden is between 1.3 and 4.0 million cases and 95,000 deaths yearly. In 2018, the World Health Assembly endorsed a new initiative to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate local cholera transmission in 20 countries by 2030. New tools, including localized GIS mapping, climate modeling, whole genome sequencing, oral vaccines, rapid diagnostic tests, and new applications of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions, could support this goal. Challenges include a high proportion of fragile states among cholera-endemic countries, urbanization, climate change, and the need for cholera treatment guidelines for pregnant women and malnourished children.

SUMMARY

Reducing cholera morbidity and mortality depends on real-time surveillance, outbreak detection and response; timely access to appropriate case management and cholera vaccines; and provision of safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Health Outcomes for Children in Haiti Since the 2010 Earthquake: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Haiti remains the poorest country in the Americas and one of the poorest in the world. Children in Haiti face many health concerns, some of which were exacerbated by the 2010 earthquake. This systematic review summarizes published research conducted since the 2010 earthquake, focusing on health outcomes for children in Haiti, including physical, psychological, and socioeconomic well-being.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted identifying articles published from January 2010 through May 2016 related to pediatric health outcomes in Haiti. Two reviewers screened articles independently. Included research articles described at least one physical health, psychological health, or socioeconomic outcome among children less than 18 years of age in Haiti since the January 2010 earthquake.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight full-length research articles were reviewed, covering infectious diseases (non-cholera [N=12] and cholera [N=7]), nutrition (N=11), traumatic injuries (N=11), mental health (N=9), anemia (N=4), abuse and violence (N=5), and other topics (N=3). Many children were injured in the 2010 earthquake, and care of their injuries is described in the literature. Infectious diseases were a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among children following the earthquake, with cholera being one of the most important etiologies. The literature also revealed that large numbers of children in Haiti have significant symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), peri-traumatic stress, depression, and anxiety, and that food insecurity and malnutrition continue to be important issues.

CONCLUSIONS

Future health programs in Haiti should focus on provision of clean water, sanitation, and other measures to prevent infectious diseases. Mental health programming and services for children also appear to be greatly needed, and food insecurity/malnutrition must be addressed if children are to lead healthy, productive lives. Given the burden of injury after the 2010 earthquake, further research on long-term disabilities among children in Haiti is needed. Dube A , Moffatt M , Davison C , Bartels S . Health outcomes for children in Haiti since the 2010 earthquake: a systematic review. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(1):77-88.

Antimicrobial Resistance Risks of Cholera Prophylaxis for United Nations Peacekeepers

More than 5 years after a United Nations peacekeeping battalion introduced cholera to Haiti, over 150,000 peacekeepers continue to be deployed annually from countries where cholera is endemic. The United Nations has thus far declined to provide antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis to peacekeepers, a policy based largely on concerns that the risks of drug resistance generation and spread would outweigh the potential benefits of preventing future cholera importations. In this study, we sought to better understand the relative benefits and risks of cholera chemoprophylaxis for peacekeepers in terms of antibiotic resistance. Using a stochastic model to quantify the potential impact of chemoprophylaxis on importation and transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive Vibrio cholerae , we found that chemoprophylaxis would decrease the probability of cholera importation but would increase the expected number of drug-resistant infections if an importation event were to occur. Despite this potential increase, we found that at least 10 drug-sensitive infections would likely be averted per excess drug-resistant infection under a wide range of assumptions about the underlying prevalence of drug resistance and risk of acquired resistance. Given these findings, policymakers should reconsider whether the potential resistance risks of providing antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis to peacekeepers are sufficient to outweigh the anticipated benefits.

Antibody Secreting Cell Responses following Vaccination with Bivalent Oral Cholera Vaccine among Haitian Adults

Background

The bivalent whole-cell (BivWC) oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) is effective in preventing cholera. However, evaluations of immune responses following vaccination with BivWC have been limited. To determine whether BivWC induces significant mucosal immune responses, we measured V. cholerae O1 antigen-specific antibody secreting cell (ASC) responses following vaccination.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We enrolled 24 Haitian adults in this study, and administered doses of oral BivWC vaccine 14 days apart (day 0 and day 14). We drew blood at baseline, and 7 days following each vaccine dose (day 7 and 21). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated, and ASCs were enumerated using an ELISPOT assay. Significant increases in Ogawa (6.9 cells per million PBMCs) and Inaba (9.5 cells per million PBMCs) OSP-specific IgA ASCs were detected 7 days following the first dose (P < 0.001), but not the second dose. The magnitude of V. cholerae-specific ASC responses did not appear to be associated with recent exposure to cholera. ASC responses measured against the whole lipolysaccharide (LPS) antigen and the OSP moiety of LPS were equivalent, suggesting that all or nearly all of the LPS response targets the OSP moiety.

Conclusions/Significance

Immunization with the BivWC oral cholera vaccine induced ASC responses among a cohort of healthy adults in Haiti after a single dose. The second dose of vaccine resulted in minimal ASC responses over baseline, suggesting that the current dosing schedule may not be optimal for boosting mucosal immune responses to V. cholerae antigens for adults in a cholera-endemic area.

The bivalent whole-cell (BivWC) oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) is effective in preventing cholera. Despite its increasing use as part of comprehensive cholera prevention and control efforts, evaluations of immune responses following vaccination with BivWC have been limited. In this study, we measured the development of cholera-specific antibody secreting cells, markers of mucosal immunity, following vaccination with BivWC among a population of adults in Haiti, where cholera is now endemic. BivWC induced development of robust immune responses following the first dose of vaccine, but similar ASC responses were not detected following the second dose, suggesting that the currently recommended 14-day interval between doses may not be optimal for boosting mucosal immune responses among adults in cholera endemic regions. These findings suggest that additional evaluation of the optimal dosing schedule for oral cholera vaccines is warranted with the goal of improving long-term immunity.

Biochemical and full genome sequence analyses of clinical Vibrio cholerae isolates in Mexico reveals the presence of novel V. cholerae strains

The first week of September 2013, the National Epidemiological Surveillance System identified two cases of cholera in Mexico City. The cultures of both samples were confirmed as Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor. Initial analyses by PFGE and by PCR-amplification of the virulence genes, suggested that both strains were similar, but different from those previously reported in Mexico. The following week, four more cases were identified in a community in the state of Hidalgo, located 121 km northeast of Mexico City. Thereafter a cholera outbreak started in the region of La Huasteca. Genomic analyses of the four strains obtained in this study confirmed the presence of Pathogenicity Islands VPI-1 and -2, VSP-1 and -2, and of the integrative element SXT. The genomic structure of the 4 isolates was similar to that of V. cholerae strain 2010 EL-1786, identified during the epidemic in Haiti in 2010.

Strategies to Prevent Cholera Introduction during International Personnel Deployments: A Computational Modeling Analysis Based on the 2010 Haiti Outbreak

BACKGROUND

Introduction of Vibrio cholerae to Haiti during the deployment of United Nations (UN) peacekeepers in 2010 resulted in one of the largest cholera epidemics of the modern era. Following the outbreak, a UN-commissioned independent panel recommended three pre-deployment intervention strategies to minimize the risk of cholera introduction in future peacekeeping operations: screening for V. cholerae carriage, administering prophylactic antimicrobial chemotherapies, or immunizing with oral cholera vaccines. However, uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of these approaches has forestalled their implementation by the UN. We assessed how the interventions would have impacted the likelihood of the Haiti cholera epidemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a stochastic model for cholera importation and transmission, fitted to reported cases during the first weeks of the 2010 outbreak in Haiti. Using this model, we estimated that diagnostic screening reduces the probability of cases occurring by 82% (95% credible interval: 75%, 85%); however, false-positive test outcomes may hamper this approach. Antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis at time of departure and oral cholera vaccination reduce the probability of cases by 50% (41%, 57%) and by up to 61% (58%, 63%), respectively. Chemoprophylaxis beginning 1 wk before departure confers a 91% (78%, 96%) reduction independently, and up to a 98% reduction (94%, 99%) if coupled with vaccination. These results are not sensitive to assumptions about the background cholera incidence rate in the endemic troop-sending country. Further research is needed to (1) validate the sensitivity and specificity of rapid test approaches for detecting asymptomatic carriage, (2) compare prophylactic efficacy across antimicrobial regimens, and (3) quantify the impact of oral cholera vaccine on transmission from asymptomatic carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening, chemoprophylaxis, and vaccination are all effective strategies to prevent cholera introduction during large-scale personnel deployments such as that precipitating the 2010 Haiti outbreak. Antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis was estimated to provide the greatest protection at the lowest cost among the approaches recently evaluated by the UN.

Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic

In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.

Based on the model-fitted trend and the observed incidence, there is evidence that after an initial period of intense transmission, the cholera epidemic in Haiti stabilized during the third year of the outbreak and became endemic. The model estimates indicate that the proportion of the population susceptible to infection is increasing and that the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment remains a potential source of new infections. Given the lack of adequate improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, these conditions could facilitate ongoing, seasonal cholera epidemics in Haiti.

Geographic distribution and mortality risk factors during the cholera outbreak in a rural region of Haiti, 2010-2011

Background

In 2010 and 2011, Haiti was heavily affected by a large cholera outbreak that spread throughout the country. Although national health structure-based cholera surveillance was rapidly initiated, a substantial number of community cases might have been missed, particularly in remote areas. We conducted a community-based survey in a large rural, mountainous area across four districts of the Nord department including areas with good versus poor accessibility by road, and rapid versus delayed response to the outbreak to document the true cholera burden and assess geographic distribution and risk factors for cholera mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A two-stage, household-based cluster survey was conducted in 138 clusters of 23 households in four districts of the Nord Department from April 22^nd to May 13^th 2011. A total of 3,187 households and 16,900 individuals were included in the survey, of whom 2,034 (12.0%) reported at least one episode of watery diarrhea since the beginning of the outbreak. The two more remote districts, Borgne and Pilate were most affected with attack rates up to 16.2%, and case fatality rates up to 15.2% as compared to the two more accessible districts. Care seeking was also less frequent in the more remote areas with as low as 61.6% of reported patients seeking care. Living in remote areas was found as a risk factor for mortality together with older age, greater severity of illness and not seeking care.

Conclusions/Significance

These results highlight important geographical disparities and demonstrate that the epidemic caused the highest burden both in terms of cases and deaths in the most remote areas, where up to 5% of the population may have died during the first months of the epidemic. Adapted strategies are needed to rapidly provide treatment as well as prevention measures in remote communities.

In October 2010, a large cholera outbreak was declared in Haiti and rapidly spread throughout the country, quickly overwhelming the existing health system. Specialized treatment structures were opened rapidly, generally in cities or large villages, and decentralized treatment units or rehydration points were gradually opened later on. To gain insight into the true burden of the cholera outbreak in the community and on potential geographical differences due to accessibility, we conducted a survey in April–May 2011 in a large rural area across four mountainous districts in the Nord department. We interviewed 3,187 households, corresponding to 16,900 individuals, of whom 2,034 (12%) had had diarrhea, probably cholera, since the beginning of the outbreak. The two most remote districts showed higher proportions of population affected by the disease, up to 16.2%, and higher proportions of deaths among patients with probable cholera, up to 15.2%, than the two districts with better accessibility. Remote populations, older patients, severe cases and those not seeking care were at increased risk of dying of the disease. These results show the very high burden of the cholera outbreak in remote areas, emphasizing the need to develop strategies to rapidly provide treatment and prevention measures in remote communities.

Using mobile phone data to predict the spatial spread of cholera

Effective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings may be particularly important for containment efforts of emerging infectious diseases, including high-mortality influenza strains.

Identifying the most sensitive and specific sign and symptom combinations for cholera: results from an analysis of laboratory-based surveillance data from Haiti, 2012-2013

Since October 2010, over 700,000 cholera cases have been reported in Haiti. We used data from laboratory-based surveillance for diarrhea in Haiti to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the cholera case definitions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). From April 2012 to May 2013, we tested 1,878 samples from hospitalized patients with acute watery diarrhea; 1,178 (62.7%) yielded Vibrio cholerae O1. The sensitivity and specificity of the WHO case definition for cholera in an epidemic setting were 91.3% and 43.1%, respectively, and the PPV and NPV were 72.8% and 74.8%, respectively. The WHO case definition for cholera in an area where cholera is not known to be present had lower sensitivity (63.1%) and NPV (55.1%) but higher specificity (74.2%) and PPV (80.0%). When laboratory diagnostic testing is not immediately available, clinicians can evaluate signs and symptoms to more accurately identify cholera patients.

Spectrum of outpatient illness in a school-based cohort in Haiti, with a focus on diarrheal pathogens

Currently, there are only limited data available on rates of major diagnostic categories of illnesses among Haitian children. We have established a cohort of 1,245 students attending schools run by the Christianville Foundation in the Gressier/Leogane region of Haiti, for whom our group provides primary medical care. Among 1,357 clinic visits during the 2012–2013 academic year, the main disease categories (with rates per 1,000 child years of observation) included acute respiratory infection (ARI) (385.6 cases/1,000 child years of observation), gastrointestinal complaints (277.8 cases/1,000 child years), febrile illness (235.0 cases/1,000 child years), and skin infections (151.7 cases/1,000 child years). The most common diarrheal pathogen was enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (present in 17% of children with diarrhea); Vibrio cholerae O1 and norovirus were the next most common. Our data highlight the importance of better defining etiologies for ARI and febrile illnesses and continuing problems of diarrheal illness in this region, including mild cases of cholera, which would not have been diagnosed without laboratory screening.

Outbreak of Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor strain--La Huasteca Region, Mexico, 2013

On September 2 and 6, 2013, Mexico's National System of Epidemiological Surveillance identified two cases of cholera in Mexico City. Rectal swab cultures from both patients were confirmed as toxigenic Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and virulence gene amplification (ctxA, ctxB, zot, and ace) demonstrated that the strains were identical to one another but different from strains circulating in Mexico previously. The strains were indistinguishable from the strain that has caused outbreaks in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. The strain was susceptible to doxycycline, had intermediate susceptibility to ampicillin and chloramphenicol, was less than fully susceptible to ciprofloxacin, and was resistant to furazolidone and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. An investigation failed to identify a common source of infection, additional cases, or any epidemiologic link between the cases. Both patients were treated with a single, 300-mg dose of doxycycline, and their symptoms resolved.

Predictors of disease severity in patients admitted to a cholera treatment center in urban Haiti

Cholera, previously unrecognized in Haiti, spread through the country in the fall of 2010. An analysis was performed to understand the epidemiological characteristics, clinical management, and risk factors for disease severity in a population seen at the GHESKIO Cholera Treatment Center in Port-au-Prince. A comprehensive review of the medical records of patients admitted during the period of October 28, 2010–July 10, 2011 was conducted. Disease severity on admission was directly correlated with older age, more prolonged length of stay, and presentation during the two epidemic waves seen in the observation period. Although there was a high seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), severity of cholera was not greater with HIV infection. This study documents the correlation of cholera waves with rainfall and its reduction in settings with improved sanitary conditions and potable water when newly introduced cholera affects all ages equally so that interventions must be directed throughout the population.

Development of a cholera vaccination policy on the Island of Hispaniola, 2010-2013

Deployment of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) on the Island of Hispaniola has been considered since the emergence of the disease in October of 2010. At that time, emergency response focused on the time-tested measures of treatment to prevent deaths and sanitation to diminish transmission. Use of the limited amount of vaccine available in the global market was recommended for demonstration activities, which were carried out in 2012. As transmission continues, vaccination was recommended in Haiti as one component of a comprehensive initiative supported by an international coalition to eliminate cholera on the Island of Hispaniola. Leveraging its delivery to strengthen other cholera prevention measures and immunization services, a phased OCV introduction is pursued in accordance with global vaccine supply. Not mutually exclusive or sequential deployment options include routine immunization for children over the age of 1 year and campaigns in vulnerable metropolitan areas or rural areas with limited access to health services.