Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

Evaluating ecosystem protection and fragmentation of the world's major mountain regions

Conserving mountains is important for protecting biodiversity because they have high beta diversity and endemicity, facilitate species movement, and provide numerous ecosystem benefits for people. Mountains are often thought to have lower levels of human modification and contain more protected area than surrounding lowlands. To examine this, we compared biogeographic attributes of the largest, contiguous, mountainous region on each continent. In each region, we generated detailed ecosystems based on Köppen-Geiger climate regions, ecoregions, and detailed landforms. We quantified anthropogenic fragmentation of these ecosystems based on human modification classes of large wild areas, shared lands, and cities and farms. Human modification for half the mountainous regions approached the global average, and fragmentation reduced the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems up to 40%. Only one-third of the major mountainous regions currently meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target of 30% coverage for all protected areas; furthermore, the vast majority of ecosystem types present in mountains were underrepresented in protected areas. By measuring ecological integrity and human-caused fragmentation with a detailed representation of mountain ecosystems, our approach facilitates tracking progress toward achieving conservation goals and better informs mountain conservation.

Climate regulation processes are linked to the functional composition of plant communities in European forests, shrublands, and grasslands

Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate by reflecting solar irradiation, evaporative cooling, and carbon sequestration. Yet very little is known about how plant traits affect climate regulation processes (CRPs) in different habitat types. Here, we used linear and random forest models to relate the community-weighted mean and variance values of 19 plant traits (summarized into eight trait axes) to the climate-adjusted proportion of reflected solar irradiation, evapotranspiration, and net primary productivity across 36,630 grid cells at the European extent, classified into 10 types of forest, shrubland, and grassland habitats. We found that these trait axes were more tightly linked to log evapotranspiration (with an average of 6.2% explained variation) and the proportion of reflected solar irradiation (6.1%) than to net primary productivity (4.9%). The highest variation in CRPs was explained in forest and temperate shrubland habitats. Yet, the strength and direction of these relationships were strongly habitat-dependent. We conclude that any spatial upscaling of the effects of plant communities on CRPs must consider the relative contribution of different habitat types.

Diurnal temperature range as a key predictor of plants' elevation ranges globally

A prominent hypothesis in ecology is that larger species ranges are found in more variable climates because species develop broader environmental tolerances, predicting a positive range size-temperature variability relationship. However, this overlooks the extreme temperatures that variable climates impose on species, with upper or lower thermal limits more likely to be exceeded. Accordingly, we propose the 'temperature range squeeze' hypothesis, predicting a negative range size-temperature variability relationship. We test these contrasting predictions by relating 88,000 elevation range sizes of vascular plants in 44 mountains to short- and long-term temperature variation. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that species' range size is negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range. Accurate predictions of short-term temperature variation will become increasingly important for extinction risk assessment in the future.

Niche breadth explains the range size of European-centred butterflies, but dispersal ability does not

Aim

The breadth of ecological niches and dispersal abilities have long been discussed as important determinants of species' range sizes. However, studies directly comparing the relative effects of both factors are rare, taxonomically biased and revealed inconsistent results.

Location

Europe.

Time Period

Cenozoic.

Major Taxa

Butterflies, Lepidoptera.

Methods

We relate climate, diet and habitat niche breadth and two indicators of dispersal ability, wingspan and a dispersal tendency index, to the global range size of 369 European-centred butterfly species. The relative effects of these five predictors and their variation across the butterfly phylogeny were assessed by means of phylogenetic generalized least squares models and phylogenetically weighted regressions respectively.

Results

Climate niche breadth was the most important single predictor, followed by habitat and diet niche breadth, while dispersal tendency and wingspan showed no relation to species' range size. All predictors together explained 59% of the variation in butterfly range size. However, the effects of each predictor varied considerably across families and genera.

Main Conclusions

Range sizes of European-centred butterflies are strongly correlated with ecological niche breadth but apparently independent of dispersal ability. The magnitude of range size-niche breadth relationships is not stationary across the phylogeny and is often negatively correlated across the different dimensions of the ecological niche. This variation limits the generalizability of range size-trait relationships across broad taxonomic groups.

Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species

Climate is an important limiting factor of species' niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.

Spatial database of planted forests in East Asia

Planted forests are critical to climate change mitigation and constitute a major supplier of timber/non-timber products and other ecosystem services. Globally, approximately 36% of planted forest area is located in East Asia. However, reliable records of the geographic distribution and tree species composition of these planted forests remain very limited. Here, based on extensive in situ and remote sensing data, as well as an ensemble modeling approach, we present the first spatial database of planted forests for East Asia, which consists of maps of the geographic distribution of planted forests and associated dominant tree genera. Of the predicted planted forest areas in East Asia (948,863 km2), China contributed 87%, most of which is located in the lowland tropical/subtropical regions, and Sichuan Basin. With 95% accuracy and an F1 score of 0.77, our spatially-continuous maps of planted forests enable accurate quantification of the role of planted forests in climate change mitigation. Our findings inform effective decision-making in forest conservation, management, and global restoration projects.

Understanding the Geographic Patterns of Closely-Related Species of Paspalum (Poaceae) Using Distribution Modelling and Seed Germination Traits

The sexual species of the Dilatata complex (Paspalum dasypleurum, P. flavescens, P. plurinerve, P. vacarianum, and P. urvillei) are closely related phylogenetically and show allopatric distributions, except P. urvillei. These species show microhabitat similarities and differences in germination traits. We integrated species distribution models (SDMs) and seed germination assays to determine whether germination divergences explain their biogeographic pattern. We trained SDMs in South America using species' presence-absence data and environmental variables. Additionally, populations sampled from highly favourable areas in the SDMs of these species were grown together, and their seeds germinated at different temperatures and dormancy-breaking conditions. Differences among species in seed dormancy and germination niche breadth were tested, and linear regressions between seed dormancy and climatic variables were explored. SDMs correctly classified both the observed presences and absences. Spatial factors and anthropogenic activities were the main factors explaining these distributions. Both SDMs and germination analyses confirmed that the niche of P. urvillei was broader than the other species which showed restricted distributions, narrower germination niches, and high correlations between seed dormancy and precipitation regimes. Both approaches provided evidence about the generalist-specialist status of each species. Divergences in seed dormancy between the specialist species could explain these allopatric distributions.

Simulations reveal climate and legacy effects underlying regional beta diversity in alpine vegetation

Introduction

Whether the distribution and assembly of plant species are adapted to current climates or legacy effects poses a problem for their conservation during ongoing climate change. The alpine regions of southern and central Europe are compared to those of the western United States and Canada because they differ in their geographies and histories.

Methods

Individual-based simulation experiments disentangled the role of geography in species adaptations and legacy effects in four combinations: approximations of observed alpine geographies vs. regular lattices with the same number of regions (realistic and null representations), and virtual species with responses to either climatic or simple spatial gradients (adaptations or legacy effects). Additionally, dispersal distances were varied using five Gaussian kernels. Because the similarity of pairs of regional species pools indicated the processes of assembly at extensive spatiotemporal scales and is a measure of beta diversity, this output of the simulations was correlated to observed similarity for Europe and North America.

Results

In North America, correlations were highest for simulations with approximated geography and location-adapted species; those in Europe had their highest correlation with the lattice pattern and climate-adapted species. Only SACEU correlations were sensitive to dispersal limitation.

Discussion

The southern and central European alpine areas are more isolated and with more distinct climates to which species are adapted. In the western United States and Canada, less isolation and more mixing of species from refugia has caused location to mask climate adaptation. Among continents, the balance of explanatory factors for the assembly of regional species pools will vary with their unique historical biogeographies, with isolation lessening disequilibria.

Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration determine the distribution patterns of threatened plant species in Sichuan Province, China

A fundamental goal of ecologists is to determine the large-scale gradients in species richness. The threatened plants are the priority of such studies because of their narrow distribution and confinement to a specific habitat. Studying the distribution patterns of threatened plants is crucial for identifying global conservation prioritization. In this study, the richness pattern of threatened plant species along spatial and elevation gradients in Sichuan Province of China was investigated, considering climatic, habitat-heterogeneity (HHET), geometric constraint and human-induced factors. The species richness pattern was analyzed, and the predictor variables, including mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), potential evapotranspiration (PET), HHET, and disturbance (DIST), to species richness were linked using the geographical distribution data of threatened species compiled at a spatial resolution of 20 km × 20 km. Generalized linear models and structural equation modelling were used to determine the individual and combined effects of each variable on species richness patterns. Results showed a total of 137 threatened plant species were distributed between 200 and 4800 m.a.s.l. The central region of the province harbors the highest species diversity. MAP and PET profoundly explained the richness pattern. Moreover, the significant role of DIST in the richness patterns of threatened plants was elucidated. These findings could help determine the richness pattern of threatened plant species in other mountainous regions of the world, with consideration of the impact of climate change.

Plant growth forms dictate adaptations to the local climate

Adaptive radiation is a significant driver of biodiversity. Primarily studied in animal systems, mechanisms that trigger adaptive radiations remain poorly understood in plants. A frequently claimed indicator of adaptive radiation in plants is growth form diversity when tied to the occupation of different habitats. However, it remains obscure whether morphological adaptations manifest as growth form diversity per se or as its constituent traits. We use the classic Aeonium radiation from the Canary Islands to ask whether adaptation across climatic space is structured by growth form evolution. Using morphological sampling with site-associated climate in a phylogenetic context, we find that growth forms dictate adaptations to the local environment. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the response of specific traits to analogous environments is antagonistic when growth forms are different. This finding suggests for the first time that growth forms represent particular ecological functions, allowing the co-occurrence of closely related species, being a product of divergent selection during evolution in sympatry.

Quantifying the impacts of land cover change on gross primary productivity globally

Historically, humans have cleared many forests for agriculture. While this substantially reduced ecosystem carbon storage, the impacts of these land cover changes on terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) have not been adequately resolved yet. Here, we combine high-resolution datasets of satellite-derived GPP and environmental predictor variables to estimate the potential GPP of forests, grasslands, and croplands around the globe. With a mean GPP of 2.0 kg C m^-2 yr^-1 forests represent the most productive land cover on two thirds of the total area suitable for any of these land cover types, while grasslands and croplands on average reach 1.5 and 1.8 kg C m^-2 yr^-1, respectively. Combining our potential GPP maps with a historical land-use reconstruction indicates a 4.4% reduction in global GPP from agricultural expansion. This land-use-induced GPP reduction is amplified in some future scenarios as a result of ongoing deforestation (e.g., the large-scale bioenergy scenario SSP4-3.4) but partly reversed in other scenarios (e.g., the sustainability scenario SSP1-1.9) due to agricultural abandonment. Comparing our results to simulations from state-of-the-art Earth System Models, we find that all investigated models deviate substantially from our estimates and from each other. Our maps could be used as a benchmark to reduce this inconsistency, thereby improving projections of land-based climate mitigation potentials.

Fatty acid composition of macroinvertebrate scrapers in relation to environmental conditions in subtropical mountain streams

Biochemical fatty acids (FAs) in vivo are essential to the growth and reproduction of animals including macroinvertebrates in streams and are subject to ambient abiotic variables. However, the main abiotic drivers of FA composition in macroinvertebrate scrapers are varying and uncertain. The aim of this research was to quantify the contributions of abiotic variables, including stream physical, chemical, and climatic variables, to the variation of FAs of macroinvertebrate functional feeding group-scrapers (e.g., Bellamya aeruginosa, Radix swinhoe, Heptagenia sp., and Stenelmis sp.). Stream physical, chemical, and climatic variables and the FAs of scrapers were measured in six subtropical streams during spring. The principal component analysis (PCA) indicated the parameters responsible for FA variation were mainly related to polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), saturated fatty acids (SAFAs), ω3 PUFA, and ω6 PUFA. Multiple factor analysis (MFA) showed that the FA profiles of scrapers strongly correlated with the physical variables. Specifically, the correlation analysis showed that PUFA and terrestrial FA were significantly positively associated with canopy cover, and in contrast that SAFA was negatively correlated with canopy cover. Although water quality and climate variables did not have a good relationship with FAs, they had a strong correlation with physical variables. This research suggested that the influence of environmental variables (e.g., stream physical, chemical, and climatic variables) on FAs of macroinvertebrate scrapers has complex paths. This study provides a theoretical basis for stream management and an empirical framework for the construction of an interactive network beyond food webs that includes environmental variables.

Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) as extreme distribution indicator of two Neotropical fruit fly parasitoids in irrigated drylands of Argentina

The figitid Ganaspis pelleranoi and the braconid Doryctobracon areolatus (Hym: Braconidae, Opiinae) are wide-ranging (from Florida, USA to Argentina) fruit fly parasitoids with tropical and subtropical distribution with a wet and temperate climate. In Argentina, both parasitoid species are thought to be restricted to the subtropical rainforests of the northwest and northeast, locally known as 'Yungas' and 'Paranaense' forests, respectively. However, these species recently have been recorded at the Monte and Thistle of the Prepuna eco-region, an arid region of central-western Argentina. Despite the extreme environmental conditions, anthropic artificial irrigation seems to be playing a fundamental role in fostering the presence and persistence of these species. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were developed to assess the suitability of these areas to harbor both species. The present work is a first approach to identify suitable areas for the distribution of these two fruit fly biological control agents in the American continent; based on 19 bioclimatic variables. Furthermore, the models resulting from including the new records in the 'Monte' eco-region suggest that local populations may become adapted to particular micro-environmental conditions generated by artificial irrigation. Models revealed that these artificial oases are suitable for G. pelleranoi but seem to be unsuitable for D. areolatus. This first and new approach to the area suitability of these species invites to produce models that reflect actual distribution including more records of presence in oases with similar conditions, thus decreasing the bias of the model generated by over reliance on areas with higher humidity (forest), which correspond to the distribution known before the inclusion of the new records.

More than half of data deficient species predicted to be threatened by extinction

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is essential for practical and theoretical efforts to protect biodiversity. However, species classified as “Data Deficient” (DD) regularly mislead practitioners due to their uncertain extinction risk. Here we present machine learning-derived probabilities of being threatened by extinction for 7699 DD species, comprising 17% of the entire IUCN spatial datasets. Our predictions suggest that DD species as a group may in fact be more threatened than data-sufficient species. We found that 85% of DD amphibians are likely to be threatened by extinction, as well as more than half of DD species in many other taxonomic groups, such as mammals and reptiles. Consequently, our predictions indicate that, amongst others, the conservation relevance of biodiversity hotspots in South America may be boosted by up to 20% if DD species were acknowledged. The predicted probabilities for DD species are highly variable across taxa and regions, implying current Red List-derived indices and priorities may be biased.

Data Deficient species are more likely to be at extinction risk than previously thought across multiple taxonomic groups.

Drivers and trends of global soil microbial carbon over two decades

Soil microorganisms are central to sustain soil functions and services, like carbon and nutrient cycling. Currently, we only have a limited understanding of the spatial-temporal dynamics of soil microorganisms, restricting our ability to assess long-term effects of climate and land-cover change on microbial roles in soil biogeochemistry. This study assesses the temporal trends in soil microbial biomass carbon and identifies the main drivers of biomass change regionally and globally to detect the areas sensitive to these environmental factors. Here, we combined a global soil microbial biomass carbon data set, random forest modelling, and environmental layers to predict spatial-temporal dynamics of microbial biomass carbon stocks from 1992 to 2013. Soil microbial biomass carbon stocks decreased globally by 3.4 ± 3.0% (mean ± 95% CI) between 1992 and 2013 for the predictable regions, equivalent to 149 Mt being lost over the period, or ~1‰ of soil C. Northern areas with high soil microbial carbon stocks experienced the strongest decrease, mostly driven by increasing temperatures. In contrast, land-cover change was a weaker global driver of change in microbial carbon, but had, in some cases, important regional effects.

Fire and summer temperatures interact to shape seed dormancy thresholds

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In Mediterranean ecosystems, the heat shock of wildfire disrupts physical seed dormancy in many plant species. This triggers germination in the post-fire environment where seedling establishment is optimal due to decreased competition and increased resource availability. However, to maintain the soil seed bank until a fire occurs, the minimum heat capable of breaking seed dormancy (i.e. the lower heat threshold) must be above the maximum temperatures typically observed in the soil during the summer. We therefore hypothesized that summer temperatures have shaped heat requirements for physical dormancy release. Specifically, we predicted that seeds from populations growing under warmer summers will have higher values of the lower heat threshold.

METHODS

To evaluate this prediction, we collected seeds from two Cistus species in 31 populations (20 Cistus albidus and 11 Cistus salviifolius) along a climate gradient of summer temperatures on the eastern coast of Spain. For each population, seeds were treated to 10 min heat shocks, from 30 to 120 °C in 5 °C increments (19 treatments), to simulate increasing heat doses from summer to fire-related temperatures. Seeds were then germinated in the lab.

KEY RESULTS

For all populations, maximum germination was observed when applying temperatures associated with fire. Lower heat thresholds varied among populations, with a positive relationship between summer temperatures at seed population origin and the heat dose required to break dormancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that fire drives maximum dormancy release for successful post-fire germination, while summer temperatures determine lower heat thresholds for ensuring inter-fire seed bank persistence. Significant among-population variation of thresholds also suggests that post-fire seeder species have some potential to modify their dormancy release requirements in response to changing climate.

A generalizable framework for spatially explicit exploration of soil organic carbon sequestration on global marginal land

Land-based CO₂ removal demands changes in management or new suitable areas to sustainably grow additional biomass without reducing food supply or damaging natural ecosystems. The soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration pathway is thought to transfer atmospheric CO₂ into a land unit, through plants, plant residues and other organic solids stored as part of the soil organic matter. No previous study explored SOC sequestration potentials on global marginal land. Here we integrated, into a generalizable modelling framework, the mapping of a set of biophysical (climatic and edaphic) and land conservation constraints to (i) identify suitable matches (i.e. biophysically possible combinations) of target areas with plant species, and (ii) to quantify contributions of pairing to long-term SOC sequestration (2020–2100). The proposed framework represents a refinement to previous mapping exercises, which seldom consider biophysical constraints, soil erosion, plant species tolerances to pedoclimatic conditions, and world protected areas. The approach was tested on marginal lands featuring SOC-deficient stocks (≤ 50 Mg SOC ha⁻¹ to 30 cm depth) at 30 arc-sec resolution, consolidated into world regions × global ecological zones based on geo-localised products. The framework was shown to enable better-informed decision-making on interventions at large geographical scales, revealing biophysically realistic options, while management should be determined locally.

Global relationships in tree functional traits

Due to massive energetic investments in woody support structures, trees are subject to unique physiological, mechanical, and ecological pressures not experienced by herbaceous plants. Despite a wealth of studies exploring trait relationships across the entire plant kingdom, the dominant traits underpinning these unique aspects of tree form and function remain unclear. Here, by considering 18 functional traits, encompassing leaf, seed, bark, wood, crown, and root characteristics, we quantify the multidimensional relationships in tree trait expression. We find that nearly half of trait variation is captured by two axes: one reflecting leaf economics, the other reflecting tree size and competition for light. Yet these orthogonal axes reveal strong environmental convergence, exhibiting correlated responses to temperature, moisture, and elevation. By subsequently exploring multidimensional trait relationships, we show that the full dimensionality of trait space is captured by eight distinct clusters, each reflecting a unique aspect of tree form and function. Collectively, this work identifies a core set of traits needed to quantify global patterns in functional biodiversity, and it contributes to our fundamental understanding of the functioning of forests worldwide.

Understanding patterns in woody plant trait relationships and trade-offs is challenging. Here, by applying machine learning and data imputation methods to a global database of georeferenced trait measurements, the authors unravel key relationships in tree functional traits at the global scale.

Climate change, land cover change, and overharvesting threaten a widely used medicinal plant in South Africa

Medicinal plants contribute substantially to the well-being of people in large parts of the world, providing traditional medicine and supporting livelihoods from trading plant parts, which is especially significant for women in low-income communities. However, the availability of wild medicinal plants is increasingly threatened; for example, the Natal Lily (Clivia miniata), which is one of the most widely traded plants in informal medicine markets in South Africa, lost over 40% of individuals over the last 90 years. Understanding the species' response to individual and multiple pressures is essential for prioritizing and planning conservation actions. To gain this understanding, we simulated the future range and abundance of C. miniata by coupling Species Distribution Models with a metapopulation model (RAMAS-GIS). We contrasted scenarios of climate change (RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5), land cover change (intensification vs. expansion), and harvesting (only juveniles vs. all life-stages). All our scenarios pointed to continuing declines in suitable habitat and abundance by the 2050s. When acting independently, climate change, land cover change, and harvesting each reduced the projected abundance substantially, with land cover change causing the most pronounced declines. Harvesting individuals from all life stages affected the projected metapopulation size more negatively than extracting only juveniles. When the three pressures acted together, declines of suitable habitat and abundance accelerated but uncertainties were too large to identify whether pressures acted synergistically, additively, or antagonistically. Our results suggest that conservation should prioritize the protection of suitable habitat and ensure sustainable harvesting to support a viable metapopulation under realistic levels of climate change. Inadequate management of C. miniata populations in the wild will likely have negative consequences for the well-being of people relying on this ecosystem service, and we expect there may be comparable consequences relating to other medicinal plants in different parts of the world.

Soil and landscape factors influence geospatial variation in maize grain zinc concentration in Malawi

Dietary zinc (Zn) deficiency is widespread globally, and in particular among people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In Malawi, dietary sources of Zn are dominated by maize and spatially dependent variation in grain Zn concentration, which will affect dietary Zn intake, has been reported at distances of up to ~ 100 km. The aim of this study was to identify potential soil properties and environmental covariates which might explain this longer-range spatial variation in maize grain Zn concentration. Data for maize grain Zn concentrations, soil properties, and environmental covariates were obtained from a spatially representative survey in Malawi (n = 1600 locations). Labile and non-labile soil Zn forms were determined using isotopic dilution methods, alongside conventional agronomic soil analyses. Soil properties and environmental covariates as potential predictors of the concentration of Zn in maize grain were tested using a priori expert rankings and false discovery rate (FDR) controls within the linear mixed model (LMM) framework that informed the original survey design. Mean and median grain Zn concentrations were 21.8 and 21.5 mg kg⁻¹, respectively (standard deviation 4.5; range 10.0–48.1). A LMM for grain Zn concentration was constructed for which the independent variables: soil pH_(water), isotopically exchangeable Zn (Zn_E), and diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) extractable Zn (Zn_DTPA) had predictive value (p < 0.01 in all cases, with FDR controlled at < 0.05). Downscaled mean annual temperature also explained a proportion of the spatial variation in grain Zn concentration. Evidence for spatially dependent variation in maize grain Zn concentrations in Malawi is robust within the LMM framework used in this study, at distances of up to ~ 100 km. Spatial predictions from this LMM provide a basis for further investigation of variations in the contribution of staple foods to Zn nutrition, and where interventions to increase dietary Zn intake (e.g. biofortification) might be most effective. Other soil and landscape factors influencing spatially dependent variation in maize grain Zn concentration, along with factors operating over shorter distances such as choice of crop variety and agronomic practices, require further exploration beyond the scope of the design of this survey.

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Comparative anatomy of leaf petioles in temperate trees and shrubs: the role of plant size, environment and phylogeny

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Petioles are important plant organs connecting stems with leaf blades and affecting light-harvesting ability of the leaf as well as transport of water, nutrients and biochemical signals. Despite the high diversity in petiole size, shape and anatomy, little information is available regarding their structural adaptations across evolutionary lineages and environmental conditions. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigated the variation of petiole morphology and anatomy of mainly European woody species to better understand the drivers of internal and external constraints in an evolutionary context.

METHODS

We studied how petiole anatomical features differed according to whole-plant size, leaf traits, thermal and hydrological conditions, and taxonomic origin in 95 shrubs and trees using phylogenetic distance-based generalized least squares models.

KEY RESULTS

Two major axes of variation were related to leaf area and plant size. Larger and softer leaves are found in taller trees of more productive habitats. Their petioles are longer, with a circular outline and are anatomically characterized by the predominance of sclerenchyma, larger vessels, interfascicular areas with fibres and indistinct phloem rays. In contrast, smaller and tougher leaves are found in shorter trees and shrubs of colder or drier habitats. Their petioles have a terete outline, phloem composed of small cells and radially arranged vessels, fibreless xylem and lamellar collenchyma. Individual anatomical traits were linked to different internal and external drivers. Petiole length and vessel diameter increase with increasing leaf blade area. Collenchyma becomes absent with increasing temperature, and petiole outline becomes polygonal with increasing precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that species' temperature and precipitation optima, plant height, and leaf area and thickness exerted a significant control on petiole anatomical and morphological structures not confounded by phylogenetic inertia. Species with different evolutionary histories but similar thermal and hydrological requirements have converged to similar petiole anatomical structures.

Assessment of biogeographic variation in traits of Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) for use in restoration and agriculture

Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) is widely distributed across western North America and is currently used in native ecosystem restoration. There is also growing interest in de novo domestication of Lewis flax as a perennial oilseed crop. To better understand this species and facilitate both restoration and domestication, we used common gardens to assess biogeographical variation in a variety of seed and growth traits from 37 flax accessions, consisting of 35 wild populations from the Intermountain West region, the pre-variety germplasm Maple Grove (L. lewisii) and the cultivar 'Appar' (L. perenne) and related this variation to collection site geography and climate. Results from linear mixed models suggest there is extensive phenotypic variation among populations of Lewis flax within the Intermountain West. Using a multivariate approach, we identify a key suite of traits that are related to latitude and climate and may facilitate adaptation, including flowering indeterminacy, seed mass and stem number. These traits should be taken into account when considering the release of new germplasm for restoration efforts. We also find that Lewis flax seed contains desirably high amounts of alpha-linolenic acid and is otherwise mostly indistinguishable in fatty acid composition from oil-type varieties of domesticated flax (L. usitatissimum), making it a strong candidate for domestication. This study provides fundamental knowledge for future research into the ecology and evolution of Lewis flax, which will inform its use in both restoration and agriculture.

Native range estimates for red-listed vascular plants

Besides being central for understanding both global biodiversity patterns and associated anthropogenic impacts, species range maps are currently only available for a small subset of global biodiversity. Here, we provide a set of assembled spatial data for terrestrial vascular plants listed at the global IUCN red list. The dataset consists of pre-defined native regions for 47,675 species, density of available native occurrence records for 30,906 species, and standardized, large-scale Maxent predictions for 27,208 species, highlighting environmentally suitable areas within species’ native regions. The data was generated in an automated approach consisting of data scraping and filtering, variable selection, model calibration and model selection. Generated Maxent predictions were validated by comparing a subset to available expert-drawn range maps from IUCN (n = 4,257), as well as by qualitatively inspecting predictions for randomly selected species. We expect this data to serve as a substitute whenever expert-drawn species range maps are not available for conducting large-scale analyses on biodiversity patterns and associated anthropogenic impacts.

Measurement(s)	species distributions
Technology Type(s)	machine learning
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Tracheophyta
Sample Characteristic - Environment	terrestrial natural environment

Stability in the South, Turbulence Toward the North: Evolutionary History of Aurinia saxatilis (Brassicaceae) Revealed by Phylogenomic and Climatic Modelling Data

The Balkan Peninsula played an important role in the evolution of many Mediterranean plants and served as a major source for post-Pleistocene colonisation of central and northern Europe. Its complex geo-climatic history and environmental heterogeneity significantly influenced spatiotemporal diversification and resulted in intricate phylogeographic patterns. To explore the evolutionary dynamics and phylogeographic patterns within the widespread eastern Mediterranean and central European species Aurinia saxatilis, we used a combination of phylogenomic (restriction-site associated DNA sequencing, RADseq) and phylogenetic (sequences of the plastid marker ndhF) data as well as species distribution models generated for the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The inferred phylogenies retrieved three main geographically distinct lineages. The southern lineage is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean, where it is distributed throughout the Aegean area, the southern Balkan Peninsula, and the southern Apennine Peninsula, and corresponds to the species main distribution area during the LGM. The eastern lineage extends from the eastern Balkan Peninsula over the Carpathians to central Europe, while the central lineage occupies the central Balkan Peninsula. Molecular dating places the divergence among all the three lineages to the early to middle Pleistocene, indicating their long-term independent evolutionary trajectories. Our data revealed an early divergence and stable in situ persistence of the southernmost, eastern Mediterranean lineage, whereas the mainland, south-east European lineages experienced more complex and turbulent evolutionary dynamics triggered by Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Our data also support the existence of multiple glacial refugia in southeast Europe and highlight the central Balkan Peninsula not only as a cradle of lineage diversifications but also as a source of lineage dispersal. Finally, the extant genetic variation within A. saxatilis is congruent with the taxonomic separation of peripatric A. saxatilis subsp. saxatilis and A. saxatilis subsp. orientalis, whereas the taxonomic status of A. saxatilis subsp. megalocarpa remains doubtful.

Honey bees and climate explain viral prevalence in wild bee communities on a continental scale

Viruses are omnipresent, yet the knowledge on drivers of viral prevalence in wild host populations is often limited. Biotic factors, such as sympatric managed host species, as well as abiotic factors, such as climatic variables, are likely to impact viral prevalence. Managed and wild bees, which harbor several multi-host viruses with a mostly fecal-oral between-species transmission route, provide an excellent system with which to test for the impact of biotic and abiotic factors on viral prevalence in wild host populations. Here we show on a continental scale that the prevalence of three broad host viruses: the AKI-complex (Acute bee paralysis virus, Kashmir bee virus and Israeli acute paralysis virus), Deformed wing virus, and Slow bee paralysis virus in wild bee populations (bumble bees and solitary bees) is positively related to viral prevalence of sympatric honey bees as well as being impacted by climatic variables. The former highlights the need for good beekeeping practices, including Varroa destructor management to reduce honey bee viral infection and hive placement. Furthermore, we found that viral prevalence in wild bees is at its lowest at the extreme ends of both temperature and precipitation ranges. Under predicted climate change, the frequency of extremes in precipitation and temperature will continue to increase and may hence impact viral prevalence in wild bee communities.

Small-scale drivers on plant and ant diversity in a grassland habitat through a multifaceted approach

Semi-natural grasslands are characterized by high biodiversity and require multifaceted approaches to monitor their biodiversity. Moreover, grasslands comprise a multitude of microhabitats, making the scale of investigation of fundamental importance. Despite their wide distribution, grasslands are highly threatened and are considered of high conservation priority by Directive no. 92/43/EEC. Here, we investigate the effects of small-scale ecological differences between two ecosites present within the EU habitat of Community Interest of semi-natural dry grasslands on calcareous substrates (6210 according to Dir. 92/43/EEC) occurring on a Mediterranean mountain. We measured taxonomic and functional diversity of plant and ant communities, evaluating the differences among the two ecosites, how these differences are influenced by the environment and whether vegetation affects composition of the ant community. Our results show that taxonomic and functional diversity of plant and ant communities are influenced by the environment. While vegetation has no effect on ant communities, we found plant and ant community composition differed across the two ecosites, filtering ant and plant species according to their functional traits, even at a small spatial scale. Our findings imply that small-scale monitoring is needed to effectively conserve priority habitats, especially for those that comprise multiple microhabitats.

Evolution of floral characters and biogeography of Heloniadeae (Melanthiaceae): an example of breeding system shifts with inflorescence change

Heloniadeae (Melanthiaceae) presents an East Asia–North America disjunct distribution. Different molecular and morphological data nevertheless support the tribe as a monophyletic group. However, their phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history, together with the character evolution, are not clear. Therefore, we constructed a Bayesian phylogenetic tree for Heloniadeae using cpDNA and inferred the historical biogeography and floral character evolution. The results revealed that Heloniadeae was distributed in high-latitudes of East Asia and North America, originating since 22.2 mya. The East Asia clade migrated into southwest China, and subsequently colonized the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, the Ryukyus, and spread northward to Japan and southern Sakhalin. The evolution of the inflorescence and number of flowers were phylogenetically conserved, associated with the historical biogeography of Heloniadeae. The inflorescences transferred from raceme to sub-umbel, and the number of flowers decreased during the dispersal process, which may be accompanied by changes in the breeding system. Besides, the anthesis period was more affected by the habitat environment than phylogenetic constraints. The flowering temperature of Heloniadeae was below 20 °C in most species, except H. kawanoi. Such a low temperature might not be conductive to pollinator activities, but it could be compensated by sustaining seed production with long-lasting flowers.

Temperature and exudativory as drivers of the marmoset (Callithrix spp.) daily activity period

Primates are affected by fluctuations in ambient temperatures, mostly through thermoregulatory costs and changes in the availability of food. In the present study, we investigate whether the ambient temperature and proxies of food availability affect the activity period of marmosets (Callithrix spp.). We predicted that: (i) at colder sites, marmosets would spend more time at sleeping sites; (ii) midday resting bouts would be longer at hotter sites; (iii) the onset/cessation of activity and resting behavior at midday would be more closely related to temperature than food availability, and (iv) highly exudativorous groups would have higher total levels of resting. We compiled data on the onset and cessation of activity and the time spent resting at midday from seven marmoset studies from sites with a wide range of temperatures. We used generalized linear mixed models to verify the relationship between the dependent variables (lag between dawn and the onset of activities, lag between cessation of activities and dusk, and proportion of resting during midday) and the minimum and maximum temperatures at the respective study sites, together with proxies of food availability (exudativory rates, the amount of habitat available per individual, and net primary productivity) using each sample month as a sampling unit and the identity of the study as a categorical random factor. At colder sites and during colder months, the marmosets left sleeping trees later in the morning and ceased their activities earlier, while at hotter sites and during hotter months, they spent more time resting during midday. More exudativorous groups become active later in the morning, but also ceased their activities later. The abundance of food did not affect the timing of activities. We provide evidence that both low and high temperatures affect marmosets' activities, and that their activity period appears to be more influenced by the thermal environment than food availability.

Influence of Pleistocene climatic oscillations on the phylogeography and demographic history of endemic vulnerable trees (section Magnolia) of the Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in Mexico

The Tropical Montane Cloud Forest (TMCF) is a highly dynamic ecosystem that has undergone frequent spatial changes in response to the interglacial-glacial cycles of the Pleistocene. These climatic fluctuations between cold and warm cycles have led to species range shifts and contractions-expansions, resulting in complex patterns of genetic structure and lineage divergence in forest tree species. In this study, we sequenced four regions of the chloroplast DNA (trnT-trnL, trnK5-matk, rpl32-trnL, trnS-trnG) for 20 populations and 96 individuals to evaluate the phylogeography, historical demography, and paleodistributions of vulnerable endemic TMCF trees in Mexico: Magnolia pedrazae (north-region), M. schiedeana (central-region), and M. schiedeana population Oaxaca (south-region). Our data recovered 49 haplotypes that showed a significant phylogeographic structure in three regions: north, central, and south. Bayesian Phylogeographic and Ecological Clustering (BPEC) analysis also supported the divergence in three lineages and highlighted the role of environmental factors (temperature and precipitation) in genetic differentiation. Our historical demography analyses revealed demographic expansions predating the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~125,000 years ago), while Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) simulations equally supported two contrasting demographic scenarios. The BPEC and haplotype network analyses suggested that ancestral haplotypes were geographically found in central Veracruz. Our paleodistributions modeling showed evidence of range shifts and expansions-contractions from the LIG to the present, which suggested the complex evolutionary dynamics associated to the climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene. Habitat management of remnant forest fragments where large and genetically diverse populations occur in the three TMCF regions analyzed would be key for the conservation of these magnolia populations.

Climate on the Blanca Massif, Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA, during the Last Glacial Maximum

Temperature-index modeling is used to determine the magnitude of temperature depression on the Blanca Massif, Colorado, required to maintain steady-state mass balances of nine reconstructed glaciers at their extent during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The mean temperature depression thus determined is ~8.6 +0.7/−0.9 °C where the uncertainties account for those inherent in the glacier reconstructions, in model parameters (e.g., melt factors), and possible modest changes in LGM precipitation. Associated equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) exhibit a statistically significant directional dependency being lower toward the north and east. Under the assumption that regional temperature change was uniform, required changes in precipitation vary systematically—also exhibiting a directional dependency coinciding with that in ELAs—and indicate increases (over modern) occurred on the eastern side of the massif while decreases occurred on the western side. This disparity represents a strengthening of a precipitation asymmetry, particularly winter precipitation, which exists today. The modern precipitation asymmetry may be a consequence of snow being blown over to the eastern side of the massif (advective transport) by southwesterly flow. Intensification of this flow during the LGM would have enhanced advection, and augmented snow accumulation on glaciers, thus explaining the lower ELAs and increased precipitation on that side of the massif.

Limited protection and ongoing loss of tropical cloud forest biodiversity and ecosystems worldwide

Tropical cloud forests (TCFs) are one of the world's most species- and endemism-rich terrestrial ecosystems. TCFs are threatened by direct human pressures and climate change, yet the fate of these extraordinary ecosystems remains insufficiently quantified. With discussions of the post-2020 biodiversity framework underway, TCFs are a defining test case of the success and promise of recent policy targets and their associated mechanisms to avert the global biodiversity crisis. Here we present a global assessment of the recent status and trends of TCFs and their biodiversity and evaluate the efficacy of current protection measures. We find that cloud forests occupied 0.4% of the global land surface in 2001 and harboured ~3,700 species of birds, mammal, amphibians and tree ferns (~15% of the global diversity of those groups), with half of those species entirely restricted to cloud forests. Worldwide, ~2.4% of cloud forests (in some regions, more than 8%) were lost between 2001 and 2018, especially in readily accessible places. While protected areas have slowed this decline, a large proportion of loss in TCF cover is still occurring despite formal protection. Increased conservation efforts are needed to avert the impending regional or global demise of TCFs and their unique biodiversity.

The nutritional quality of cereals varies geospatially in Ethiopia and Malawi

Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) remain widespread among people in sub-Saharan Africa1-5, where access to sufficient food from plant and animal sources that is rich in micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) is limited due to socioeconomic and geographical reasons4-6. Here we report the micronutrient composition (calcium, iron, selenium and zinc) of staple cereal grains for most of the cereal production areas in Ethiopia and Malawi. We show that there is geospatial variation in the composition of micronutrients that is nutritionally important at subnational scales. Soil and environmental covariates of grain micronutrient concentrations included soil pH, soil organic matter, temperature, rainfall and topography, which were specific to micronutrient and crop type. For rural households consuming locally sourced food-including many smallholder farming communities-the location of residence can be the largest influencing factor in determining the dietary intake of micronutrients from cereals. Positive relationships between the concentration of selenium in grain and biomarkers of selenium dietary status occur in both countries. Surveillance of MNDs on the basis of biomarkers of status and dietary intakes from national- and regional-scale food-composition data1-7 could be improved using subnational data on the composition of grain micronutrients. Beyond dietary diversification, interventions to alleviate MNDs, such as food fortification8,9 and biofortification to increase the micronutrient concentrations in crops10,11, should account for geographical effects that can be larger in magnitude than intervention outcomes.

Daily Travel Distances of Unhabituated Grauer's Gorillas (Gorilla beringei graueri) in a Low Elevation Forest

To accurately determine the space use of animals, we need to follow animal movements over prolonged periods, which is especially challenging for the critically endangered Grauer's gorillas (Gorilla beringei graueri) in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As a consequence, we know little about Grauer's gorillas, particularly from the lower elevational parts of their range. Between 2016 and 2018, we tracked unhabituated Grauer's gorillas in lowland forests (500-1,000 m a.s.l.), at the community-managed Nkuba Conservation Area in Nord Kivu (DRC) to provide estimates of daily travel distances (DTD), daily displacement distances (DDD), and the linearity of recorded paths expressed as the Linearity Index (LI): DDD/DTD. We found an average DTD of ∼1.3 km (range 0.05-5.0 km), with temporal variation among monthly averages; specifically, an increase in travel distance over the June-August dry season resulting in peak travel distances at the beginning of the September-December wet season. Daily displacements showed similar temporal variation, which resulted in a lack of obvious temporal patterns in LI. We conclude that the movement patterns of Grauer's gorillas in lowland forests, which are characterized by larger DTD than those of Grauer's gorillas that inhabit highland habitats, show similarity to travel distances of other predominantly frugivorous gorillas. Moreover, the observed temporal patterns in space use may be tentatively linked to temporal changes in fruit availability or consumption. These observations have consequences for our understanding of the ecological role that Grauer's gorillas play and provide baseline data to estimate current and future distributions, abundances, and carrying capacities of this highly threatened animal.

When ecological marginality is not geographically peripheral: exploring genetic predictions of the centre-periphery hypothesis in the endemic plant Lilium pomponium

Background

Quantifying variation of genetic traits over the geographical range of species is crucial for understanding the factors driving their range dynamics. The center-periphery hypothesis postulates, and many studies support, the idea that genetic diversity decreases and genetic differentiation increases toward the geographical periphery due to population isolation. The effects of environmental marginality on genetic variation has however received much less attention.

Methods

We tested the concordance between geographical and environmental gradients and the genetic predictions of center-periphery hypothesis for endemic Lilium pomponium in the southern Alps.

Results

We found little evidence for concordance between genetic variation and both geographical and environmental gradients. Although the prediction of increased differentiation at range limits is met, genetic diversity does not decrease towards the geographical periphery. Increased differentiation among peripheral populations, that are not ecologically marginal, may be explained by a decrease in habitat availability that reduces population connectivity. In contrast, a decrease of genetic diversity along environmental but not geographical gradients may be due to the presence of low quality habitats in the different parts of the range of a species that reduce effective population size or increase environmental constraints. As a result, environmental factors may affect population dynamics irrespective of distance from the geographical center of the range. In such situations of discordance between geographical and environmental gradients, the predictions of decreasing genetic diversity and increasing differentiation toward the geographical periphery may not be respected.

Functional Diversity in Ferns Is Driven by Species Richness Rather Than by Environmental Constraints

Functional traits determine how species interact with their abiotic and biotic environment. In turn, functional diversity describes how assemblages of species as a whole are adapted to their environment, which also determines how they might react to changing conditions. To fully understand functional diversity, it is fundamental to (a) disentangle the influences of environmental filtering and species richness from each other, (b) assess if the trait space saturates at high levels of species richness, and (c) understand how changes in species numbers affect the relative importance of the trait niche expansion and packing. In the present study, we determined functional diversity of fern assemblages by describing morphological traits related to resource acquisition along four tropical elevational transects with different environmental conditions and species richness. We used several functional diversity indices and their standardized effect size to consider different aspects of functional diversity. We contrasted these aspects of functional diversity with climate data and species richness using linear models and linear mixed models. Our results show that functional morphological trait diversity was primarily driven by species richness and only marginally by environmental conditions. Moreover, increasing species richness contributed progressively to packing of the morphological niche space, while at the same time decreasing morphological expansion until a saturation point was reached. Overall, our findings suggest that the density of co-occurring species is the fundamental driving force of morphological niche structure, and environmental conditions have only an indirect influence on fern resource acquisition strategies.

Evidence for Glacial Refugia of the Forest Understorey Species Helleborus niger (Ranunculaceae) in the Southern as Well as in the Northern Limestone Alps

Glacial refugia of alpine and subnival biota have been intensively studied in the European Alps but the fate of forests and their understory species in that area remains largely unclear. In order to fill this gap, we aimed at disentangling the spatiotemporal diversification of disjunctly distributed black hellebore Helleborus niger (Ranunculaceae). We applied a set of phylogeographic analyses based on restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) data and plastid DNA sequences to a range-wide sampling of populations. These analyses were supplemented with species distribution models generated for the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We used exploratory analyses to delimit genomically coherent groups and then employed demographic modeling to reconstruct the history of these groups. We uncovered a deep split between two major genetic groups with western and eastern distribution within the Southern Limestone Alps, likely reflecting divergent evolution since the mid-Pleistocene in two glacial refugia situated along the unglaciated southern margin of the Alps. Long-term presence in the Southern Limestone Alps is also supported by high numbers of private alleles, elevated levels of nucleotide diversity and the species' modeled distribution at the LGM. The deep genetic divergence, however, is not reflected in leaf shape variation, suggesting that the morphological discrimination of genetically divergent entities within H. niger is questionable. At a shallower level, populations from the Northern Limestone Alps are differentiated from those in the Southern Limestone Alps in both RADseq and plastid DNA data sets, reflecting the North-South disjunction within the Eastern Alps. The underlying split was dated to ca. 0.1 mya, which is well before the LGM. In the same line, explicit tests of demographic models consistently rejected the hypothesis that the partial distribution area in the Northern Limestone Alps is the result of postglacial colonization. Taken together, our results strongly support that forest understory species such as H. niger have survived the LGM in refugia situated along the southern, but also along the northern or northeastern periphery of the Alps. Being a slow migrator, the species has likely survived repeated glacial-interglacial circles in distributional stasis while the composition of the tree canopy changed in the meanwhile.

Spatial prediction of the concentration of selenium (Se) in grain across part of Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Grain and soil were sampled across a large part of Amhara, Ethiopia in a study motivated by prior evidence of selenium (Se) deficiency in the Region's population. The grain samples (teff, Eragrostis tef, and wheat, Triticum aestivum) were analysed for concentration of Se and the soils were analysed for various properties, including Se concentration measured in different extractants. Predictive models for concentration of Se in the respective grains were developed, and the predicted values, along with observed concentrations in the two grains were represented by a multivariate linear mixed model in which selected covariates, derived from remote sensor observations and a digital elevation model, were included as fixed effects. In all modelling steps the selection of predictors was done using false discovery rate control, to avoid over-fitting, and using an α-investment procedure to maximize the statistical power to detect significant relationships by ordering the tests in a sequence based on scientific understanding of the underlying processes likely to control Se concentration in grain. Cross-validation indicated that uncertainties in the empirical best linear unbiased predictions of the Se concentration in both grains were well-characterized by the prediction error variances obtained from the model. The predictions were displayed as maps, and their uncertainty was characterized by computing the probability that the true concentration of Se in grain would be such that a standard serving would not provide the recommended daily allowance of Se. The spatial variation of grain Se was substantial, concentrations in wheat and teff differed but showed the same broad spatial pattern. Such information could be used to target effective interventions to address Se deficiency, and the general procedure used for mapping could be applied to other micronutrients and crops in similar settings.

Temperature-driven color lightness and body size variation scale to local assemblages of European Odonata but are modified by propensity for dispersal

Previous macrophysiological studies suggested that temperature-driven color lightness and body size variations strongly influence biogeographical patterns in ectotherms. However, these trait-environment relationships scale to local assemblages and the extent to which they can be modified by dispersal remains largely unexplored. We test whether the predictions of the thermal melanism hypothesis and the Bergmann's rule hold for local assemblages. We also assess whether these trait-environment relationships are more important for species adapted to less stable (lentic) habitats, due to their greater dispersal propensity compared to those adapted to stable (lotic) habitats.We quantified the color lightness and body volume of 99 European dragon- and damselflies (Odonata) and combined these trait information with survey data for 518 local assemblages across Europe. Based on this continent-wide yet spatially explicit dataset, we tested for effects temperature and precipitation on the color lightness and body volume of local assemblages and assessed differences in their relative importance and strength between lentic and lotic assemblages, while accounting for spatial and phylogenetic autocorrelation.The color lightness of assemblages of odonates increased, and body size decreased with increasing temperature. Trait-environment relationships in the average and phylogenetic predicted component were equally important for assemblages of both habitat types but were stronger in lentic assemblages when accounting for phylogenetic autocorrelation.Our results show that the mechanism underlying color lightness and body size variations scale to local assemblages, indicating their general importance. These mechanisms were of equal evolutionary significance for lentic and lotic species, but higher dispersal ability seems to enable lentic species to cope better with historical climatic changes. The documented differences between lentic and lotic assemblages also highlight the importance of integrating interactions of thermal adaptations with proxies of the dispersal ability of species into trait-based models, for improving our understanding of climate-driven biological responses.

Challenges and Opportunities for Terrapene carolina carolina Under Different Climate Scenarios

An unprecedented rate of global climate change as a result of human impacts has affected both endotherms and ectotherms. This is of special concern for ectotherms, such as reptiles, as these species are suffering from large population declines and lack the dispersal ability of other taxa. There are many protected areas across the United States; however, these areas are fragmented, which hinders dispersal. We examined species distribution and dispersal capabilities for Terrapene carolina carolina, a relatively narrow range, low dispersal, and vulnerable species. We created climatic suitability models to predict changes in suitable habitat and identified important predictor variables. We modeled three time periods using MaxEnt and hypothesized that there would be an increase in northern habitat. We found that most of the suitable habitat changed at the northern end of the range and that mean temperature of driest quarter had the most influence on future predictions. Overall there were relatively moderate changes in suitable habitat, but where these changes occur affects accessibility. As an example, we examined these local scale movements within Oak Openings Region and found that individuals are capable of dispersing to new suitable habitats; however, other physical barriers will hinder movements. In conclusion, there is a critical need to protect this vulnerable reptilian species and our results suggest that T. c. carolina will expand their distribution northward. We suggest that land managers increase connectivity among protected areas to facilitate dispersal, but future studies should incorporate other dynamic ecological factors at finer spatial scale.

The productivity-biodiversity relationship varies across diversity dimensions

Understanding the processes that drive the dramatic changes in biodiversity along the productivity gradient remains a major challenge. Insight from simple, bivariate relationships so far has been limited. We combined >11,000 community plots in the French Alps with a molecular phylogeny and trait information for >1200 plant species to simultaneously investigate the relationships between all major biodiversity dimensions and satellite-sensed productivity. Using an approach that tests for differential effects of species dominance, species similarity and the interplay between phylogeny and traits, we demonstrate that unimodal productivity-biodiversity relationships only dominate for taxonomic diversity. In forests, trait and phylogenetic diversity typically increase with productivity, while in grasslands, relationships shift from unimodal to declining with greater land-use intensity. High productivity may increase trait/phylogenetic diversity in ecosystems with few external constraints (forests) by promoting complementary strategies, but under external constraints (managed grasslands) successful strategies are similar and thus the best competitors may be selected.

Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Northern Sawatch Range, Colorado, USA

Temperature-index modeling is used to determine the magnitude of temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range required to maintain steady-state mass balances of six reconstructed glaciers at their extent during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM), dated at ~21 ka. Assuming no significant differences in precipitation compared to modern values, mean annual temperatures in the region were on average 8.8 + 0.5/– 0.8 °C cooler than they are today. Allowing for modest (± 10 cm) increases or decreases in precipitation, required temperature depressions only differ by ±0.2 °C. Temperature depression in the northern Sawatch Range is consistent, although slightly greater, with those determined in other ranges in Colorado using similar approaches. The estimates presented here are, however, substantially less than those suggested by several downscaled simulations of global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, that might be due to the need for improved calibration of such downscaled simulations, or the models from which they are derived. Our estimates of LGM temperature depression are considerably greater than that previously determined in the study area and those in two other ranges in Colorado derived using different methodologies, the latter being most likely responsible for the discrepancies.

Development of high-resolution daily gridded temperature datasets for the central north region of Egypt

This study developed 0.05° × 0.05° land-only datasets of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for the period 1981-2017. Existing coarse-resolution datasets were evaluated to find the best dataset for the study area to use as a base of the new datasets. The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) global temperature dataset was found to be the best. The CPC data were interpolated to a spatial resolution of 0.05° latitude/longitude using linear interpolation technique considering the flat topography of the study area. The robust kernel density distribution mapping method was used to correct the bias using observations, and WorldClim v.2 temperature climatology was used to adjust the spatial variability in temperature. The validation of CNE datasets using probability density function skill score and hot and cold extremes tail skill scores showed remarkable improvement in replicating the spatial and temporal variability in observed temperature. Because CNE datasets are the best available high-resolution estimate of daily temperatures, they will be beneficial for climatic and hydrological studies.

Modelling seasonal dynamics, population stability, and pest control in Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae)

BACKGROUND

The invasive temperate mosquito Aedes japonicus japonicus is a potential vector for various infectious diseases and therefore a target of vector control measures. Even though established in Germany, it is unclear whether the species has already reached its full distribution potential. The possible range of the species, its annual population dynamics, the success of vector control measures and future expansions due to climate change still remain poorly understood. While numerous studies on occurrence have been conducted, they used mainly presence data from relatively few locations. In contrast, we used experimental life history data to model the dynamics of a continuous stage-structured population to infer potential seasonal densities and ask whether stable populations are likely to establish over a period of more than one year. In addition, we used climate change models to infer future ranges. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of various stage-specific vector control measures.

RESULTS

Aedes j. japonicus has already established stable populations in the southwest and west of Germany. Our models predict a spread of Ae. j. japonicus beyond the currently observed range, but likely not much further eastwards under current climatic conditions. Climate change models, however, will expand this range substantially and higher annual densities can be expected. Applying vector control measures to oviposition, survival of eggs, larvae or adults showed that application of adulticides for 30 days between late spring and early autumn, while ambient temperatures are above 9 °C, can reduce population density by 75%. Continuous application of larvicide showed similar results in population reduction. Most importantly, we showed that with the consequent application of a mixed strategy, it should be possible to significantly reduce or even extinguish existing populations with reasonable effort.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides valuable insights into the mechanisms concerning the establishment of stable populations in invasive species. In order to minimise the hazard to public health, we recommend vector control measures to be applied in 'high risk areas' which are predicted to allow establishment of stable populations to establish.