Gyro-scope: an individual-based computer model to forecast gyrodactylid infections on fish hosts

Mathematical Modelling of Parasite Dynamics: A Stochastic Simulation-Based Approach and Parameter Estimation via Modified Sequential-Type Approximate Bayesian Computation

The development of mathematical models for studying newly emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases has gained momentum due to global events. The gyrodactylid-fish system, like many host-parasite systems, serves as a valuable resource for ecological, evolutionary, and epidemiological investigations owing to its ease of experimental manipulation and long-term monitoring. Although this system has an existing individual-based model, it falls short in capturing information about species-specific microhabitat preferences and other biological details for different Gyrodactylus strains across diverse fish populations. This current study introduces a new individual-based stochastic simulation model that uses a hybrid τ -leaping algorithm to incorporate this essential data, enhancing our understanding of the complexity of the gyrodactylid-fish system. We compare the infection dynamics of three gyrodactylid strains across three host populations. A modified sequential-type approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, based on sequential Monte Carlo and sequential importance sampling, is developed. Additionally, we establish two penalised local-linear regression methods (based on L1 and L2 regularisations) for ABC post-processing analysis to fit our model using existing empirical data. With the support of experimental data and the fitted mathematical model, we address open biological questions for the first time and propose directions for future studies on the gyrodactylid-fish system. The adaptability of the mathematical model extends beyond the gyrodactylid-fish system to other host-parasite systems. Furthermore, the modified ABC methodologies provide efficient calibration for other multi-parameter models characterised by a large set of correlated or independent summary statistics.

Spatial and temporal parasite dynamics: microhabitat preferences and infection progression of two co-infecting gyrodactylids

Background

Mathematical modelling of host-parasite systems has seen tremendous developments and broad applications in theoretical and applied ecology. The current study focuses on the infection dynamics of a gyrodactylid-fish system. Previous experimental studies have explored the infrapopulation dynamics of co-infecting ectoparasites, Gyrodactylus turnbulli and G. bullatarudis, on their fish host, Poecilia reticulata, but questions remain about parasite microhabitat preferences, host survival and parasite virulence over time. Here, we use more advanced statistics and a sophisticated mathematical model to investigate these questions based on empirical data to add to our understanding of this gyrodactylid-fish system.

Methods

A rank-based multivariate Kruskal-Wallis test coupled with its post-hoc tests and graphical summaries were used to investigate the spatial and temporal parasite distribution of different gyrodactylid strains across different host populations. By adapting a multi-state Markov model that extends the standard survival models, we improved previous estimates of survival probabilities. Finally, we quantified parasite virulence of three different strains as a function of host mortality and recovery across different fish stocks and sexes.

Results

We confirmed that the captive-bred G. turnbulli and wild G. bullatarudis strains preferred the caudal and rostral regions respectively across different fish stocks; however, the wild G. turnbulli strain changed microhabitat preference over time, indicating microhabitat preference of gyrodactylids is host and time dependent. The average time of host infection before recovery or death was between 6 and 14 days. For this gyrodactylid-fish system, a longer period of host infection led to a higher chance of host recovery. Parasite-related mortalities are host, sex and time dependent, whereas fish size is confirmed to be the key determinant of host recovery.

Conclusion

From existing empirical data, we provided new insights into the gyrodactylid-fish system. This study could inform the modelling of other host-parasite interactions where the entire infection history of the host is of interest by adapting multi-state Markov models. Such models are under-utilised in parasitological studies and could be expanded to estimate relevant epidemiological traits concerning parasite virulence and host survival.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05471-9.

Transmission dynamics of ectoparasitic gyrodactylids (Platyhelminthes, Monogenea): An integrative review

Parasite transmission is the ability of pathogens to move between hosts. As a key component of the interaction between hosts and parasites, it has crucial implications for the fitness of both. Here, we review the transmission dynamics of Gyrodactylus species, which are monogenean ectoparasites of teleost fishes and a prominent model for studies of parasite transmission. Particularly, we focus on the most studied host–parasite system within this genus: guppies, Poecilia reticulata, and G. turnbulli/G. bullatarudis. Through an integrative literature examination, we identify the main variables affecting Gyrodactylus spread between hosts, and the potential factors that enhance their transmission. Previous research indicates that Gyrodactylids spread when their current conditions are unsuitable. Transmission depends on abiotic factors like temperature, and biotic variables such as gyrodactylid biology, host heterogeneity, and their interaction. Variation in the degree of social contact between hosts and sexes might also result in distinct dynamics. Our review highlights a lack of mathematical models that could help predict the dynamics of gyrodactylids, and there is also a bias to study only a few species. Future research may usefully focus on how gyrodactylid reproductive traits and host heterogeneity promote transmission and should incorporate the feedbacks between host behaviour and parasite transmission.

Parasite diversity and ecology in a model species, the guppy (Poecilia reticulata) in Trinidad

The guppy (Poecilia reticulata) is a model species in ecology and evolution. Many studies have examined effects of predators on guppy behaviour, reproduction, survival strategies, feeding and other life-history traits, but few have studied variation in their parasite diversity. We surveyed parasites of 18 Trinidadian populations of guppy, to provide insight on the geographical mosaic of parasite variability, which may act as a source of natural selection acting on guppies. We found 21 parasite species, including five new records for Trinidad. Spatial variation in parasite diversity was significantly higher than that of piscine predators, and significant variation in parasite richness among individuals and populations was correlated with: (i) host size, (ii) snail species richness, and (iii) the distance between populations. Differences in parasite species richness are likely to play an important, yet underestimated role in the biology of this model species of vertebrate ecology and evolution.

Predicting the Potential for Natural Recovery of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) Populations following the Introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris Malmberg, 1957 (Monogenea)

Gyrodactylus salaris (Monogenea, Platyhelminthes) is a notifiable freshwater pathogen responsible for causing catastrophic damage to wild Atlantic salmon stocks, most notably in Norway. In some strains of Baltic salmon (e.g., from the river Neva) however, the impact is greatly reduced due to some form of innate resistance that regulates parasite numbers, resulting in fewer host mortalities. Gyrodactylus salaris is known from 17 European states; its status in a further 35 states remains unknown; the UK, the Republic of Ireland and certain watersheds in Finland are free of the parasite. Thus, the parasite poses a serious threat if it emerges in Atlantic salmon rearing regions throughout Europe. At present, infections are generally controlled via extreme measures such as the treatment of entire river catchments with the biocide rotenone, in order to remove all hosts, before restocking with the original genetic stock. The use of rotenone in this way in EU countries is unlikely as it would be in contravention of the Water Framework Directive. Not only are such treatments economically and environmentally costly, they also eradicate the potential for any host/parasite evolutionary process to occur. Based on previous studies, UK salmon stocks have been shown to be highly susceptible to infection, analogous to Norwegian stocks. The present study investigates the impact of a G. salaris outbreak within a naïve salmon population in order to determine long-term consequences of infection and the likelihood of coexistence. Simulation of the salmon/ G. salaris system was carried out via a deterministic mathematical modelling approach to examine the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions. Results indicated that in order for highly susceptible Atlantic strains to evolve a resistance, both a moderate-strong deceleratingly costly trade-off on birth rate and a lower overall cost of the immune response are required. The present study provides insights into the potential long term impact of G. salaris if introduced into G. salaris-free territories and suggests that in the absence of external controls salmon populations are likely to recover to high densities nearing 90% of that observed pre-infection.

A further cost for the sicker sex? Evidence for male-biased parasite-induced vulnerability to predation

Males are typically the sicker sex. Data from multiple taxa indicate that they are more likely to be infected with parasites, and are less "tolerant," or less able to mitigate the fitness costs of a given infection, than females. One cost of infection for many animals is an increased probability of being captured by a predator. A clear, hitherto untested, prediction is therefore that this parasite-induced vulnerability to predation is more pronounced among males than females. We tested this prediction in the sexually size dimorphic guppy, Poecilia reticulata, in which females are typically larger than males. We either sham or experimentally infected guppies with Gyrodactylus turnbulli, elicited their escape response using an established protocol and measured the distance they covered during 60 ms. To discriminate between the effects of body size and those of other inherent sex differences, we size-matched fish across treatment groups. Infection with G. turnbulli reduced the distance covered during the escape response of small adults by 20.1%, whereas that of large fish was unaffected. This result implies that parasite-induced vulnerability to predation is male-biased in the wild: although there was no difference in escape response between our experimentally size-matched groups of males and females, males are significantly smaller across natural guppy populations. These results are consistent with Bateman's principle for immunity: Natural selection for larger body sizes and longevity in females seems to have resulted in the evolution of increased infection tolerance. We discuss the potential implications of sex- and size-biased parasite-induced vulnerability to predation for the evolutionary ecology of this host-parasite interaction in natural communities.

Getting into hot water: sick guppies frequent warmer thermal conditions

Ectotherms depend on the environmental temperature for thermoregulation and exploit thermal regimes that optimise physiological functioning. They may also frequent warmer conditions to up-regulate their immune response against parasite infection and/or impede parasite development. This adaptive response, known as 'behavioural fever', has been documented in various taxa including insects, reptiles and fish, but only in response to endoparasite infections. Here, a choice chamber experiment was used to investigate the thermal preferences of a tropical freshwater fish, the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), when infected with a common helminth ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli, in female-only and mixed-sex shoals. The temperature tolerance of G. turnbulli was also investigated by monitoring parasite population trajectories on guppies maintained at a continuous 18, 24 or 32 °C. Regardless of shoal composition, infected fish frequented the 32 °C choice chamber more often than when uninfected, significantly increasing their mean temperature preference. Parasites maintained continuously at 32 °C decreased to extinction within 3 days, whereas mean parasite abundance increased on hosts incubated at 18 and 24 °C. We show for the first time that gyrodactylid-infected fish have a preference for warmer waters and speculate that sick fish exploit the upper thermal tolerances of their parasites to self medicate.

Parasites of Trinidadian guppies: evidence for sex- and age-specific trait-mediated indirect effects of predators

Predation pressure can alter the morphology, physiology, life history, and behavior of prey; each of these in turn can change how surviving prey interact with parasites. These trait-mediated indirect effects may change in direction or intensity during growth or, in sexually dimorphic species, between the sexes. The Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata presents a unique opportunity to examine these interactions; its behavioral ecology has been intensively studied in wild populations with well-characterized predator faunas. Predation pressure is known to have driven the evolution of many guppy traits; for example, in high-predation sites, females (but not males) tend to shoal, and this anti-predator behavior facilitates parasite transmission. To test for evidence of predator-driven differences in infection in natural populations, we collected 4715 guppies from 62 sites across Trinidad between 2003 and 2009 and screened them for ectosymbionts, including Gyrodactylus. A novel model-averaging analysis revealed that females were more likely to be infected with Gyrodactylus parasites than males, but only in populations with both high predation pressure and high infection prevalence. We propose that the difference in shoaling tendency between the sexes could explain the observed difference in infection prevalence between males and females in high-predation sites. The infection rate of juveniles did not vary with predation regime, probably because juveniles face constant predation pressure from conspecific adults and therefore tend to shoal in both high- and low-predation sites. This represents the first evidence for age- and sex-specific trait-mediated indirect effects of predators on the probability of infection in their prey.

Reproductive trade-offs may moderate the impact of Gyrodactylus salaris in warmer climates

Gyrodactylus salaris is a notifiable freshwater ectoparasite of salmonids. Its primary host is Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), upon which infections can cause death, and have led to massive declines in salmon numbers in Norway, where the parasite is widespread. Different strains of S. salar vary in their susceptibility, with Atlantic strains (such as those found in Norway) exhibiting no resistance to the parasite, and Baltic strains demonstrating an innate resistance sufficient to regulate parasite numbers on the host causing it to either die out or persist at a low level. In this study, Leslie matrix and compartmental models were used to generate data that demonstrated the population growth of G. salaris on an individual host is dependent on the total number of offspring per parasite, its longevity and the timing of its births. The data demonstrated that the key factor determining the rate of G. salaris population growth is the time at which the parasite first gives birth, with rapid birth rate giving rise to large population size. Furthermore, it was shown that though the parasite can give birth up to four times, only two births are required for the population to persist as long as the first birth occurs before a parasite is three days old. As temperature is known to influence the timing of the parasite's first birth, greater impact may be predicted if introduced to countries with warmer climates than Norway, such as the UK and Ireland which are currently recognised to be free of G. salaris. However, the outputs from the models developed in this study suggest that temperature induced trade-offs between the total number of offspring the parasite gives birth to and the first birth timing may prevent increased population growth rates over those observed in Norway.

Interactions between males guppies facilitates the transmission of the monogenean ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli

In a previous study we found that female guppies shoaled more than males and that there was greater transmission of the ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli between females. Here, to test for a possible sex bias in parasite transmission, we conducted a similar experiment on single sex shoals of male and female guppies, observing host behaviour before and after the introduction of an infected shoal mate. The initial parasite burden was considerably lower in the present experiment (30 worms versus >100 worms previously) and we used a different stock of ornamental guppies (Green Cobra variety versus a Tuxedo hybrid previously). Contrary to our previous finding, males aggregated significantly more than females. Males performed 'sigmoid' displays towards each other, a courtship behaviour that is more generally directed towards females. Due to the high rate of male-male interactions, parasite transmission was 10 times higher between males than between females. Furthermore, shoaling intensity was highest for the most parasitised fish indicating that these infected fish were not avoided by non-parasitised conspecifics. These studies show that certain social behaviours including shoaling and courtship displays, appear to facilitate the transmission of gyrodactylid parasites.

Mixed infections and hybridisation in monogenean parasites

Theory predicts that sexual reproduction promotes disease invasion by increasing the evolutionary potential of the parasite, whereas asexual reproduction tends to enhance establishment success and population growth rate. Gyrodactylid monogeneans are ubiquitous ectoparasites of teleost fish, and the evolutionary success of the specious Gyrodactylus genus is thought to be partly due to their use of various modes of reproduction. Gyrodactylus turnbulli is a natural parasite of the guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a small, tropical fish used as a model for behavioural, ecological and evolutionary studies. Using experimental infections and a recently developed microsatellite marker, we conclusively show that monogenean parasites reproduce sexually. Conservatively, we estimate that sexual recombination occurs and that between 3.7–10.9% of the parasites in our experimental crosses are hybrid genotypes with ancestors from different laboratory strains of G. turnbulli. We also provide evidence of hybrid vigour and/or inter-strain competition, which appeared to lead to a higher maximum parasite load in mixed infections. Finally, we demonstrate inbreeding avoidance for the first time in platyhelminths which may influence the distribution of parasites within a host and their subsequent exposure to the host's localized immune response. Combined reproductive modes and inbreeding avoidance may explain the extreme evolutionary diversification success of parasites such as Gyrodactylus, where host-parasite coevolution is punctuated by relatively frequent host switching.

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: monogenean epidemics in guppies

Background

Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

Microhabitat use, not temperature, regulates intensity of Gyrodactylus cichlidarum long-term infection on farmed tilapia--are parasites evading competition or immunity?

Gyrodactylids (Monogenea) are ectoparasites of fish, some of which negatively affect commercially valuable fishes. Temperature strongly regulates population dynamics of these viviparous flatworms in farmed and wild fish populations, with most gyrodactylid species showing positive temperature-abundance associations. In agreement with epidemiological theory, numerous laboratory studies demonstrate that these parasites cannot persist in confined fish populations without periodic introduction of susceptible hosts. Extinction of gyrodactylid populations is due to host immunity, which develops in several fish species. In this one-year study, we followed populations of the recognized pathogen Gyrodactylus cichlidarum infecting four genetic groups of confined tilapia (wild type Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus niloticus, red O. n. niloticus, Mozambique tilapia O. mossambicus and a red synthetic population called Pargo-UNAM) kept under farming conditions and subject to natural environmental fluctuations. Based on the antecedents given, we postulated the following three hypotheses: (1) parasite abundance will be regulated by water temperature; (2) parasites will induce host mortality, particularly during periods of rapid infrapopulation growth; and (3) gyrodactylid populations will eventually become extinct on confined fish hosts. We disproved the three hypotheses: (1) parasite numbers fluctuated independently of temperature but were associated to changes in microhabitat use; (2) although gyrodactylid populations exhibited considerable growth, no evidence was found of negative effects on the hosts; and (3) infections persisted for one year on confined fish. Microhabitat use changed over time, with most worms apparently migrating anteriorly from the caudal fin and ending on the pectoral fins. Gyrodactylid populations followed similar trajectories in all fish, aggregating and dispersing repeatedly. Several instances were found where increased parasite dispersion coincided with increased intensity of infection; as well as the opposite, where increased aggregation coincided with parasite population declines. Three alternative explanations could account for these observations: that parasites (1) experience differential mortality on different anatomical regions of the fish; (2) migrate to avoid intraspecific competition; and (3) migrate to escape localized immune responses induced by infection. Our data do not allow us to demonstrate which of these alternatives is correct, so we discuss the merits of each. We provide circumstantial evidence in support of the third explanation, because as shown in other fish host-gyrodactylid interactions where immune responses have been characterized, in this study worms progressively moved away from fins with high mucus cell density to those with low density - what would be anticipated if immune defenses occur and reach the fish surface through mucus.

Sex-specific differences in shoaling affect parasite transmission in guppies

BACKGROUND

Individuals have to trade-off the costs and benefits of group membership during shoaling behaviour. Shoaling can increase the risk of parasite transmission, but this cost has rarely been quantified experimentally. Guppies (Poecilia reticulata) are a model system for behavioural studies, and they are commonly infected by gyrodactylid parasites, notorious fish pathogens that are directly transmitted between guppy hosts.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Parasite transmission in single sex shoals of male and female guppies were observed using an experimental infection of Gyrodactylus turnbulli. Parasite transmission was affected by sex-specific differences in host behaviour, and significantly more parasites were transmitted when fish had more frequent and more prolonged contact with each other. Females shoaled significantly more than males and had a four times higher risk to contract an infection.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Intersexual differences in host behaviours such as shoaling are driven by differences in natural and sexual selection experienced by both sexes. Here we show that the potential benefits of an increased shoaling tendency are traded off against increased risks of contracting an infectious parasite in a group-living species.

Parasite mediated homogenizing selection at the MHC in guppies

Understanding the selective forces influencing genetic diversity is a fundamental goal of evolutionary ecology. The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) play a key role in the adaptive immune response of vertebrates and thus provide an excellent opportunity to examine the agents of selection on a functionally important gene. Here we examine the genetic architecture of the MHC class IIB genes in 10 wild populations of guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in Northern Trinidad. We have previously shown that these populations are significantly less diverged at the class IIB locus than expected based on neutral (microsatellite) loci. We now survey infection by Gyrodactylus turnbulli and G. bullatarudis, common parasitic worms that infect guppies, as a potential agent of homogenizing selection. We used a genetic algorithm to partition both additive and non-additive genetic effects of the five most common MHC allele types as well as a rare allele category. Although we found no evidence for non-additive effects, across the populations we found that one allele type (the a-type) had a significant negative additive effect on parasite load. Thus, individuals who had more copies of the a-type allele were infected with fewer gyrodactylus than individuals with fewer copies of the allele. These results not only link parasite infection with MHC genotype, they provide a mechanism of homogenizing selection across these otherwise disparate populations.