Clinical characteristics and mortality associated with COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia: A hospital-based retrospective cohort study

SARS-CoV-2 genetic variation and bacterial communities of naso-oropharyngeal samples in middle-aged and elderly COVID-19 patients in West Java, Indonesia

Objective

The number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia reflects the disease severity and rapid dissemination. In response to the mounting threat, SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance and the investigation of naso-oropharyngeal bacterial communities in West Java were conducted, as dysbiosis of the upper respiratory tract microbiota might adversely affect the clinical condition of patients.

Methods

We utilized the Oxford Nanopore sequencing platform to analyze genetic variation of 43 samples of SARS-CoV-2 and 11 selected samples for 16S rRNA gene sequencing, using samples collected from May to August 2021.

Results

The prevalence of AY.23 (>82%) predominated among five virus lineages in the populations (AY.23, AY.24, AY.26, AY.42, B.1.1.7). The region in the SARS-CoV-2 genome found to have the highest number of mutations was the spike (S) protein (>20%). There was no association between SARS-CoV-2 lineages, mutation frequency, patient profile, and COVID-19 rapid spread-categorized cases. There was no association of bacterial relative abundance, alpha-beta diversity, and linear discriminant analysis effect size analysis with patient profile and rapid spread cases. MetagenomeSeq analysis showed eight differential abundance species in individual patient profiles, including Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Haemophilus parainfluenzae.

Conclusions

The data demonstrated relevant AY.23 dominance (the Delta variant) in West Java during that period supporting the importance of surveillance program in monitoring disease progression. The inconsistent results of the bacterial communities suggest that a complex multifactor process may contribute to the progression of bacterial-induced disease in each patient.

Modelling the Potential Public Health Impact of Different COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies with an Adapted Vaccine in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has been a dynamically changing virus, requiring the development of adapted vaccines. This study estimated the potential public health impact alternative vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The outcomes of alternative vaccination strategies with a future adapted vaccine were estimated using a combined Markov decision tree model. The population was stratified by high- and standard-risk. Using age-specific inputs informed by local surveillance data and published sources, the model estimated health (case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic (medical costs and productivity losses) outcomes in different age and risk subpopulations.

RESULTS

Booster vaccination in only the elderly and high-risk subpopulation was estimated to avert 278,614 cases 21,558 hospitalizations, 239 deaths, Singapore dollars (SGD) 277 million in direct medical costs, and SGD 684 million in indirect medical costs. These benefits increased as vaccination was expanded to other subpopulations. Increasing the booster vaccination coverage to 75% of the standard-risk population averted more deaths (3%), hospitalizations (29%), infections (145%), direct costs (90%), and indirect costs (192%) compared to the base case.

CONCLUSIONS

Broader vaccination strategies using an adapted booster vaccine could have substantial public health and economic impact in Singapore.

Risk factors of early mortality in COVID-19 patients in Indonesia: A retrospective cohort study in a provincial referral hospital of Aceh

Some of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients died after being hospitalized and early mortality is a matter of concern during the pandemic; therefore, it is critical to determine which patients are the most vulnerable of having early mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for early mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Indonesia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on hospitalized COVID-19 patients from July 2020 to September 2021 at Dr. Zainoel Abidin Hospital, Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, and mortality were collected. Early mortality was defined as a death before seven days of the hospitalization. Multivariate regression analysis was employed to determine the risk factors associated with early mortality. We included the data of 624 COVID-19 patients who died during the study period. More than half of the patients were male and aged over 50 years old. The average hospitalization period was 10 days and most patients had more than two comorbidities. Chronic lung disease was the most common comorbidity (46.0%) followed by respiratory disease (26.8%) and heart disease (14.3%). Multiple comorbidities and elevated D-dimers exceeding 3376.92 ng/mL were associated with early mortality with OR: 7.029; 95%CI: 2.02-24.43 and OR: 1.000085, 95%CI: 1.000028-1.000142, respectively. In conclusion, early mortality in COVID-19 patients was associated with having multiple comorbidities and elevated D-dimer level. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the presence of comorbidities and routine laboratory test while managing COVID-19 patients in order to prevent the early mortality.

Quantity of antibiotic use and its association with clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: A snapshot from a provincial referral hospital in Indonesia

Irrational antibiotic use in Indonesia is considered high, yet there are still lacks reliable information regarding the issue. The quantity of antibiotic use studies, in particular during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, was not well reported. The aim of this study was to evaluate antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients at a province referral hospital in Aceh, Indonesia, Dr Zainoel Abidin Hospital, and to assess the association between antibiotic use and COVID-19 clinical outcomes. The defined daily dose (DDD) method was used and expressed in DDDs per 100 patient-days as in hospital setting. The data were obtained from inpatient confirmed COVID-19 patients between March 2020 and December 2021. A logistic regression was used to determine the association between patients' characteristics and antibiotic usage with clinical outcomes. A total of 361 treated COVID-19 patients were included using a random sampling technique and analyzed. Out of 361 patients, 89.2% of them were treated with antibiotic(s). All the antibiotics were given empirically except for cefazoline (5.5%) that was used as prophylaxis to obstetric patients who underwent the c-section. Azithromycin was the most prescribed antibiotic and levofloxacin had the highest DDD. Our data suggested that there was no association between antibiotic use and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 patients (p=0.128). Having sepsis and another pulmonary disease however were associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients with adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 14.14; 95%CI 2.94-67.90, p=0.001 and aOR 8.64; 95%CI 3.30-22.63, p<0.001, respectively. In addition, patients older than 60-year-old had a higher chance to an unfavorable outcome compared to those younger than 30-year-old, aOR: 7.61; 95%CI: 1.07-53.94. In conclusion, the use of antibiotics is prevalent among COVID-19 and it is not directly associated with clinical outcomes.

Factors associated with small airway obstruction in COVID-19 survivors: A cross-sectional study among health-care providers

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been identified for more than two years, yet studies assessing post-infection lung function are limited. Reports on lung function in COVID-19 patients indicate that patients have restrictive defects and small airway dysfunction that can persist and are not necessarily related to the severity of the disease. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of small airway obstruction and its incidence-associated factors among COVID-19 survivors to better describe the long-term effects of COVID-19. A cross-sectional study was conducted among COVID-19 survivors who less than 50 years at Medan Adventist Hospital between 2020-2022. The data were collected through interview, direct assessment and respiratory examination. A total of 89 COVID-19 survivors were recruited of which the majority of them were female with a mean age of 32.6-year-old with the largest group was 19-30 years. The comorbidities found among the survivors were heart and thyroid disorders, with the most common symptom of post-COVID-19 was fatigue. Most of them had mild COVID-19. The mean forced mid-expiratory flow (FEF25-75%) was 96.3±20.22, with an incidence rate of small airway obstruction was 19.1%. Univariate and multivariate analyses indicated no significant association between age, gender, comorbidities, history of oxygenation during COVID-19 treatment, COVID-19 severity and the type of post COVID-19 syndrome symptoms with the incidence of small airway obstruction. In conclusion, among COVID-19 survivors who were less than 50 years old, those studied variables seems have less association with the incidence of small airway obstruction. Nevertheless, a further study with a bigger sample size is important to be conducted.

Association between cardiovascular diseases and COVID-19 pneumonia outcome in Indonesia: a multi-center cohort study

Background

COVID-19 is a pandemic affecting 185 countries, including Indonesia. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in COVID-19 patients were linked to worse clinical outcomes. However, the association remained inconclusive due to limited data in Indonesia. This study aimed to determine the association between CVD in COVID-19 pneumonia patients with its clinical outcomes.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was conducted in four Indonesian hospitals, enrolling 584 adult COVID-19 pneumonia patients from September 2020 to July 2021. Patients were categorized into two groups: non-CVD and CVD [hypertension, coronary artery disease (CAD), chronic heart failure (CHF), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), arrhythmia, cardiomegaly, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), mitral regurgitation (MR), and myocardial injury (MI)]. Clinical outcomes include in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit admission, ventilator use, earlier death, and prolonged hospital stay. Mann-Whitney test was used for analysis.

Results

The most common CVD was hypertension (48.1%), followed by MI (10.6%), CAD (9.2%), CHF (6.8%), HHD (3.1%), arrhythmia (1.7%), and others (0.7%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 24%, and patients were hospitalized for a median of 12 days. MI was the only CVD that increased in-hospital mortality (RR 2.105). It was also significantly increased in patients with diabetes mellitus (RR 1.475) and chronic kidney disease (RR 2.079). Meanwhile, prolonged hospital stay was associated with any CVD (RR 1.553), hypertension (RR 1.511), MI (RR 1.969), CHF (RR 1.595), diabetes mellitus (RR 1.359), and cerebrovascular disease (RR 2.203).

Conclusion

COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with CVD, specifically MI and hypertension, worsens the COVID-19 clinical outcomes.

Cost Effectiveness of Strategies for Caring for Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

The resources for critical care are limited in many settings, exacerbating the significant morbidity and mortality associated with critical illness. Budget constraints can lead to choices between investing in advanced critical care (e.g. mechanical ventilators in intensive care units) or more basic critical care such as Essential Emergency and Critical Care (EECC; e.g. vital signs monitoring, oxygen therapy, and intravenous fluids).

METHODS

We investigated the cost effectiveness of providing EECC and advanced critical care in Tanzania in comparison with providing 'no critical care' or 'district hospital-level critical care' using coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a tracer condition. We developed an open-source Markov model ( https://github.com/EECCnetwork/POETIC_CEA ) to estimate costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, using a provider perspective, a 28-day time horizon, patient outcomes obtained from an elicitation method involving a seven-member expert group, a normative costing study, and published literature. We performed a univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our results.

, RESULTS

EECC is cost effective 94% and 99% of the time when compared with no critical care (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $37 [-$9 to $790] per DALY averted) and district hospital-level critical care (ICER $14 [-$200 to $263] per DALY averted), respectively, relative to the lowest identified estimate of the willingness-to-pay threshold for Tanzania ($101 per DALY averted). Advanced critical care is cost effective 27% and 40% of the time, when compared with the no critical care or district hospital-level critical care scenarios, respectively.

CONCLUSION

For settings where there is limited or no critical care delivery, implementation of EECC could be a highly cost-effective investment. It could reduce mortality and morbidity for critically ill COVID-19 patients, and its cost effectiveness falls within the range considered 'highly cost effective'. Further research is needed to explore the potential of EECC to generate even greater benefits and value for money when patients with diagnoses other than COVID-19 are accounted for.

Determinant Factors of Mortality in Pre-elderly and Elderly Patients With COVID-19 in Jakarta, Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality in pre-elderly and elderly individuals in Jakarta, Indonesia.

METHODS

We employed a case-control study design, utilizing secondary data from the Epidemiology Surveillance, Immunization Prevention, and Disease Control Sections of the DKI Jakarta Provincial Health Office, collected from December 2020 to January 2021. The study included 188 cases and an equal number of controls. Cases were COVID-19 patients confirmed to have died, as reported by hospitals and communities and subsequently verified by healthcare workers. Control subjects were patients who completed a 14-day isolation period and had been officially declared recovered by healthcare professionals. The dependent variable was the mortality of COVID-19 patients in the January 2021 period. The independent variables consisted of demographic data (age and sex), clinical symptoms (cough, runny nose, anosmia, diarrhea, headaches, abdominal pain, muscle pain, and nausea/vomiting), and comorbidities (hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes). Multivariate analysis was conducted using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed several factors associated with COVID-19 fatalities in Jakarta: age of 60 years or older (odds ratio [OR], 4.84; 95% CI, 3.00 to 7.80), male (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 2.41 to 3.68), dyspnea (OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 2.04 to 7.55), anosmia (OR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.46), and heart disease (OR, 4.38; 95% CI, 1.04 to 18.46).

CONCLUSIONS

The control and prevention of COVID-19 among elderly individuals require particular vigilance. When a COVID-19 case is detected within this demographic, prompt treatment and medication administration are crucial to mitigate the presenting symptoms.

Clinical and treatment factors associated with the mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to a referral hospital in Indonesia

Background

Indonesia had the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in South-East Asia. We aimed to determine the factors associated with this mortality and the effect of the recommended COVID-19 treatment regimen during the first 10 months of the epidemic.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study using secondary data from medical records. In total, 689 adult COVID-19 inpatients hospitalized between March and December 2020 were enrolled. Clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, and treatments were analyzed by survival outcome. Kaplan-Meier statistics were used to estimate survival.

Findings

Of the 689 patients enrolled, 103 (14.9%) died. Disease severity was highly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.69, p < 0.001). Other clinical factors associated with mortality were older age and comorbidities. Based on laboratory parameters, higher procalcitonin and C-reactive protein contents and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio >3.53 were also linked to mortality. Favipiravir was associated with lower mortality, with adjusted HRs of 0.24 (0.11-0.54) and 0.40 (0.17-0.98) among the mild/moderate and severe cases, respectively. Among patients with severe disease, steroids showed some beneficial effects in the early days of hospitalization.

Interpretation

Older age and comorbidities were associated with disease severity and, consequently, higher mortality. Higher mortality after the second week of hospitalization may be related to secondary bacterial infection. Favipiravir showed significant benefit for COVID-19 survival, while steroids showed benefit only in the early days of admission among patients with severe disease.

Funding

This research did not receive a specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

The role of the glucocorticoid receptor and its impact on steroid response in moderate-severe COVID-19 patients

The effect of corticosteroid therapy in COVID-19 patients is mediated by its suppressive effect on the regulations of inflammatory response. However, its clinical outcome is often unpredictable. This study aimed to explore the role of glucocorticoid receptors in corticosteroid response in Moderate-Severe COVID-19 patients. In this cross-sectional study, we attempted to find the relationship between the expression of the glucocorticoid receptor (encoded by NR3C1), the variation of glucocorticoid receptors isoform, and the mutations of glucocorticoid receptors exon with clinical response to corticosteroids. In addition, the relationship between glucocorticoid receptors expression and the expression of IκBα (encoded by NFKBIA) and glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper protein (GILZ; encoded by TSC22D3) as steroid pathways was also evaluated. Thirty-four COVID-19 patients were studied. Blood was drawn before and on day 5 of corticosteroid treatment. Glucocorticoid receptors expression, isoform, and mutation were determined by RNA sequencing from white blood cells. Based on the improvement of clinical and oxygen status, patients were classified into responder and non-responder groups. Of thirty-four patients, 23 (67.6%) showed excellent responses to corticosteroids, and 11 (32.4%) were non-responders. The NR3C1 gene expression was significantly higher in the responsive group at baseline and after five days of glucocorticoid treatment. Isoform variant and mutation of glucocorticoid receptors did not correlate with clinical response. The expression of IκBα and GILZ correlated positively with glucocorticoid receptors expression. This study elucidates the relationship between glucocorticoid receptor expression with therapeutic responses to corticosteroids in moderate-severe COVID-19.

The association of the COVID-19 outbreak with in-hospital mortality: A single-centre study from Indonesia

Objective

The early outbreak period of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has affected the emergency department (ED) and hospital services in many countries. This study aimed to investigate the association between COVID-19 outbreak and in-hospital mortality in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was conducted in a single-centre referral hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia. Data were collected between May and October 2020. All patients who visited the ED and required inpatient care during the early COVID-19 outbreak period at the study location (March to April 2020) were included in the exposure group. All patients who visited the ED and required inpatient care during the non-outbreak period (March to April 2019) were included in the non-exposure group. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome, whereas other variables, such as sex, age, triage categories, trauma cases, referral cases, and ED length of stay (LOS), were measured to identify confounding and effect modifications. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess this association.

Results

A total of 2,808 patients during the outbreak period and 2,423 patients during the non-outbreak period participated in the study. The odds of in-hospital mortality increased during the outbreak period compared to that during the non-outbreak period (odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95%CI 1.04-1.91; p = 0.01) after adjusting for age, sex, triage categories, trauma case, ED LOS, and interaction between the outbreak period and ED LOS.

Conclusion

COVID-19 outbreaks have been associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in referral hospitals in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Association between cigarette smoking patterns and severity of COVID-19: Findings from a study in 15 private Hospitals in Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Indonesia is ranked fourth among countries with the highest smoking rates and has the highest number of male smokers globally. This study aimed to assess the association between cigarette smoking patterns and the severity of COVID-19 among patients in 15 Indonesian hospitals.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to August 2020 using medical records of 490 COVID-19 patients, including the history of their smoking patterns from 15 private referral hospitals in 5 provinces. The severity was defined based on the Guidelines on the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 issued by the Indonesian Ministry of Health, which was indicated by the care provided to patients, namely outpatient, inpatient, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) services for mild, moderate, and severe symptoms. Smoking patterns were grouped based on adult tobacco use classifications of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The results showed that 69.8% of respondents had not smoked cigarettes, 17.1% were active smokers, and 13.1% were former smokers. A significant difference was seen in the number of cigarettes smoked by patients in the ICU, inpatients, and outpatients, among current smokers and passive smokers (p=0.018 and p=0.005, respectively). Furthermore, there was no significant difference in the severity of COVID-19 among current smokers, former smokers, and non-smokers. The time from when smoking was stopped among former smokers was not associated with the severity of COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in COVID-19 severity between groups of smokers. Passive smoking and the number of cigarettes smoked by smokers daily were associated with the severity of COVID-19. Smoke-free policies should be implemented continuously to protect people from the dangers of secondhand smoke.

Geographical variations and district-level factors associated with COVID-19 mortality in Indonesia: a nationwide ecological study

BACKGROUND

Ensuring health equity, especially for vulnerable populations in less developed settings with poor health system is essential for the current and future global health threats. This study examined geographical variations of COVID-19 mortality and its association with population health characteristics, health care capacity in responding pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics across 514 districts in Indonesia.

METHODS

This nationwide ecological study included aggregated data of COVID-19 cases and deaths from all 514 districts in Indonesia, recorded in the National COVID-19 Task Force database, during the first two years of the epidemic, from 1 March 2020 to 27 February 2022. The dependent variable was district-level COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 populations. The independent variables include district-level COVID-19 incidence rate, population health, health care capacity, and socio-demographics data from government official sources. We used multivariable ordinal logistic regression to examine factors associated with higher mortality rate.

RESULTS

Of total 5,539,333 reported COVID-19 cases, 148,034 (2.7%) died, and 5,391,299 (97.4%) were recovered. The district-level mortality rate ranged from 0 to 284 deaths per 100,000 populations. The top five districts with the highest mortality rate were Balikpapan (284 deaths per 100,000 populations), Semarang (263), Madiun (254), Magelang (250), and Yogyakarta (247). A higher COVID-19 incidence (coefficient 1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.75), a higher proportion of ≥ 60 years old population (coefficient 0.26, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.46), a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (coefficient 0.60, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.84), a lower prevalence of obesity (coefficient -0.32, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.08), a lower number of nurses per population (coefficient -0.27, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.04), a higher number of midwives per population (coefficient 0.32, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.50), and a higher expenditure (coefficient 0.34, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.57) was associated with a higher COVID-19 mortality rate.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 mortality rate in Indonesia was highly heterogeneous and associated with higher COVID-19 incidence, different prevalence of pre-existing comorbidity, healthcare capacity in responding the pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics. This study revealed the need of controlling both COVID-19 and those known comorbidities, health capacity strengthening, and better resource allocation to ensure optimal health outcomes for vulnerable population.

[Risk factors at admission associated with intubation in patients with COVID-19]

Background

Intubation rates up to 33% have been found in patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Some cohorts have reported the presence of dyspnea in 84.1% of intubated patients, being this the only symptom associated with intubation. Oxygen saturation < 90% and increased respiratory rate have also been described as predictors of intubation.

Objective

To analyze the risk factors associated with intubation in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 at their admission.

Material and methods

An observational, retrospective, analytical, cross-sectional study was carried out. The universe of study consisted of patients over 18 years of age hospitalized due to a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection from April 1, 2020 to April 31, 2021 in the Hospital de Especialidades (Specialties Hospital) "Dr. Bernardo Sepúlveda Gutiérrez" at the National Medical Center.

Results

The mean age of intubated patients was 59.17 years (95% confidence interval [95% CI] -9.994 to -3.299, p < 0.001). Overall, 76.7% (230) of patients had a history of one or more preexisting comorbidities, including hypertension in 42.3% (127), obesity in 36.7% (110), and diabetes mellitus in 34.3% (103).

Conclusions

The main clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in our center who required intubation are very similar to those observed in different centers, including male sex, age over 50 years and obesity, which were the most common.

Factors Affecting Outcome in Diabetic Patients with COVID-19: A Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic disease and often found as a comorbid in COVID-19. Poor glycemic control might play a role in worsening of clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients who lead to increase morbidity and mortality. AIM: We conducted a study to evaluate relationship between T2DM with or without macrovascular and microvascular complications and cigarette smoking habit with COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients was conducted in Dr. Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital, Makassar from May 2020 to August 2020. COVID-19 status was obtained using real-time polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2, T2DM status was obtained using blood glucose or HbA1c, and other characteristic data were obtained. Mortality was the clinical outcome in our study. RESULTS: One hundred and six subjects data were enrolled. Most subjects were male (n = 55; 51.9%), and 55–65 year-old (n = 40; 37.7%). Eighty subjects were survived (75.5%) and 26 subjects did not survive (24.5%). Onset of T2DM ≥ 5 years had a higher mortality rate compared to onset < 5 years (34.9% vs. 17.5%; p = 0.041). Other factors such as gender, age, nutritional status, hypertension, heart disease, smoking habit, and HbA1c did not show significant difference in terms of mortality. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients with onset of T2DM for more than 5 years had a worse outcome compared to the onset of T2DM <5 years.

Modelling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has continuously evolved, requiring the development of adapted vaccines. This study estimated the impact of the introduction and increased coverage of an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine in Thailand.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The outcomes of booster vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine versus no booster vaccination were estimated using a combined cohort Markov decision tree model. The population was stratified into high- and standard-risk subpopulations. Using age-specific inputs informed by published sources, the model estimated health (case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic (medical costs and productivity losses) outcomes in different age and risk subpopulations.

RESULTS

Booster vaccination in only the elderly and high-risk subpopulation was estimated to avert 97,596 cases 36,578 hospitalizations, 903 deaths, THB 3,119 million in direct medical costs, and THB 10,589 million in indirect medical costs. These benefits increased as vaccination was expanded to other subpopulations. Increasing the booster vaccination coverage to 75% of the standard-risk population averted more deaths (95%), hospitalizations (512%), infections (782%), direct costs (550%), and indirect costs (687%) compared to the base case.

CONCLUSIONS

Broader vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine could have significant public health and economic benefits in Thailand.

Modeling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine in Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case numbers have increased following the emergence of the Omicron variant. This study estimated the impact of introducing and increasing the coverage of an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine in Malaysia.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A combined cohort Markov decision tree model was used to compare booster vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine versus no booster vaccination in Malaysia. The model utilized age-specific data from January 2021 to March 2022 derived from published sources. The outcomes of interest included case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths, medical costs, and productivity losses. The population was stratified into high-risk and standard-risk subpopulations, and the study evaluated the benefits of increased coverage in different age and risk groups.

RESULTS

Vaccinating only high-risk individuals and those aged ≥ 65 years was estimated to avert 274,313 cases, 33229 hospitalizations, 2,434 deaths, Malaysian ringgit (MYR) 576 million in direct medical costs, and MYR 579 million in indirect costs. Expanding vaccination coverage in the standard-risk population to 75% was estimated to avert more deaths (31%), hospitalizations (155%), infections (206%), direct costs (206%), and indirect costs (281%).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support broader population Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccination in Malaysia with potential for significant health and economic gains.

A predictive model for hospitalization and survival to COVID-19 in a retrospective population-based study

The development of tools that provide early triage of COVID-19 patients with minimal use of diagnostic tests, based on easily accessible data, can be of vital importance in reducing COVID-19 mortality rates during high-incidence scenarios. This work proposes a machine learning model to predict mortality and risk of hospitalization using both 2 simple demographic features and 19 comorbidities obtained from 86,867 electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients, and a new method (LR-IPIP) designed to deal with data imbalance problems. The model was able to predict with high accuracy (90-93%, ROC-AUC = 0.94) the patient's final status (deceased or discharged), while its accuracy was medium (71-73%, ROC-AUC = 0.75) with respect to the risk of hospitalization. The most relevant characteristics for these models were age, sex, number of comorbidities, osteoarthritis, obesity, depression, and renal failure. Finally, to facilitate its use by clinicians, a user-friendly website has been developed ( https://alejandrocisterna.shinyapps.io/PROVIA ).

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) expression of lung tissue in COVID-19 patient severity through core biopsy post mortem

Introduction

In COVID-19 patients, Interleukin-6 (IL-6) will increase, and the production of antigens will be excessive, which will cause excessive inflammation of the tissues, especially the respiratory tract, which causes fibrosis in the lungs and can lead to death.

Objective

To analyze IL-6 expression of lung tissue in COVID-19 patient severity.

Methods

The study is an observational analytic design from July to December 2020. COVID-19 patient severity who died was examined for IL-6 expression on lung tissue. The lung tissue sampling uses the core biopsy method.

Results

The total number of samples obtained was 38 samples. Characteristics of patients with a mean age of patients were 48 years, male, the most common chief complaint was shortness of breath, mean symptom onset was 5 days, patient length of stay was 10 days, the most common cause of death was a combination of septic shock and ARDS and the most common comorbid diabetes mellitus. There is an increased WBC, neutrophils, platelets, procalcitonin, CRP, BUN, creatinine serum, AST, ALT, and D-dimer. In this study, the average tissue IL-6 expression was 72.63, with the highest frequency of strong positive 47.4%.

Conclusion

An increase in IL-6 expression on lung tissue showed the severity of COVID-19 infection.

•

IL-6 levels increased in severity of COVID-19.

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IL-6 is elevated in comorbid COVID-19 patients.

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IL-6 increases inflammatory indicators in COVID-19.

Early Determination of Case Fatality Rate of Covid-19 Pandemic During the Ongoing Yemeni Armed Conflict

OBJECTIVES

To determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and its associated determinants in order to understand the true magnitude of the problem during the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

METHODS

The CFR among the confirmed Covid-19 cases in Yemen was calculated. The data was retrieved from national Covid-19 surveillance between April 10, when the first COVID-19 case reported, and May 31, 2020.

RESULTS

A total of 419 confirmed Covid-19 cases were reported. There were 14.1% and 5.7% of cases who required intensive care and mechanical ventilators, respectively. Out of the total cases, 95 deaths were reported, giving a CFR of 22.6% which is much higher compared to other countries. CFR was significantly higher among elderly people compared to young adults and varied between governorates. Mortality was associated with pre-existing hypertension (OR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.58, 3.54) and diabetes (OR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.61).

CONCLUSIONS

The elderly and those with comorbidities, in particular hypertension and diabetes, have higher risk for poor outcomes and therefore should receive more attention in the clinical setting. Preventive measures should also be prioritized to protect those groups in order to reduce the severe cases and deaths-associated COVID-19 in armed-conflict.

Perioperative Management for Emergency Surgery in Pediatric Patients with COVID-19: Retrospective Observational Study

Background

The first wave of COVID-19 in 2020 created massive challenges in providing safe surgery for pediatric patients with COVID-19. Inevitably, emergency surgery and the unknown nature of the disease place a burden on the heavily challenged surgical services for pediatrics in a developing country. Lessons from the pandemic are important for future disaster planning.

Aim

To describe the characteristics of pediatric surgical patients with COVID-19 undergoing emergency surgery during the first wave and its perioperative narrative in a developing country.

Methods

The study was a multicenter retrospective descriptive study in eight Indonesian government-owned referral and teaching hospitals. The authors reviewed confirmed COVID-19 pediatric patients (≤18 years old) who underwent surgery. Institutional review board clearances were acquired, and data were evaluated in proportion and percentages. The writing of this paper follows the STROBE guidelines.

Results

About 7791 pediatric surgical cases were collected, 73 matched the study criteria and 24 confirmed cases were found. Cases were more common in females (58.3%), who were above 12 years old (37.5%) and who were asymptomatic (62.5%). Laparotomy (33.3%), general anesthesia (90.4%) and intubation (80.8%) were common, while use of video laryngoscopy (40%) and rapid sequence intubation (28.8%) were rare. The mean length of stay was 12 ±13.3 days, and in-hospital mortality was 8.3%.

Discussions

Lockdown and school closure were successful in protecting children, hence the low incidence of pediatric surgical cases with COVID-19 during the first wave. Many hospitals were unprepared to perform surgery for a droplet or airborne infectious disease, and COVID-19 testing was not available nationally in the early pandemic, hence the use of protective protection equipment  during these early pandemic times are often not efficient.

Conclusion

The incidence of COVID-19 in pediatric surgical patients is low. The rapidity and availability of preoperative testing for a new emerging disease are essential in a pandemic.

Predicting the cost of COVID-19 treatment and its drivers in Indonesia: analysis of claims data of COVID-19 in 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Recent Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic shows that health system, particularly hospital care, takes the highest toll on COVID-19. As hospital gets to manage the surge of COVID-19 cases, it is important to standardize treatment standard and package for COVID-19. Until recently, in Indonesia, COVID-19 curative package in hospital is paid using a retrospective payment system (claims system) using a per-diem rate. Quantifying standard cost using an established retrospective claims dataset is important as a basis for standard formulation for COVID-19 package treatment, should COVID-19 be accommodated into the benefit package for Universal Health Coverage (UHC) under the National Health Insurance.

METHODS

We estimated a standard cost for COVID-19 treatment using provider's perspective. The analysis was conducted retrospectively using established national COVID-19 claims dataset during January 2020 until 2021. Utilizing individual-or-patient level analysis, claims profile were broken down per-patient, yielding descriptive clinical and care-related profile. Estimate of price and charge were measured in average. Moreover, indicators were regressed to the total charged price (in logarithmic scale) so as to find the predictors of cost.

RESULTS

Based on the analysis of 102,065 total claims data received by MOH in 2020-2021, there is an average claim payment for COVID-19 in the amount of IDR 74,52 million (USD$ 5175). Significant difference exists in hospital tariffs or price to the existing claims data, indicating profit for hospital within its role in managing COVID-19 cases. Claim amount predictors were found to be associated with change of claim amount, including high level of severity, hospital class, intensive care room occupancy and ventilator usage, as well as mortality.

CONCLUSION

As COVID-19 pandemic shifts towards an endemic, countries including Indonesia need to reflect on the existing payment system and move towards a more sustainable payment mechanism for COVID-19. The COVID-19 payment system needs to be integrated into the existing national health insurance allowing bundled payment to become more sustainable, which can be achieved by comprehensively formulating the bundled payment package for COVID-19.

Clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the COVID-19 Emergency Field Hospital of Bangkalan, Indonesia

Background: Following the surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the epicenter of East Java Province, this study aimed to determine the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 at one of the emergency field hospitals in Indonesia.

Methods: This was a single-centered, retrospective descriptive study of 763 patients admitted to the COVID-19 Emergency Field Hospital of Bangkalan from July 5 2021 to September 30 2021. The demographic data, clinical signs and symptoms, pre-existing comorbidities, therapy, and clinical outcomes of the patients were analyzed using SPSS.

Results: The clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 at the emergency hospital were varied. A total of 763 patients were included. The most common age was between 40 and 49 years (31.1%), a slight majority were women (51.5%), and most had travelled abroad in the last 14 days (99.1%). Of the 763 patients, 70.9% had no comorbidities. Half of the patients were asymptomatic (49.4%), 46% were mild cases, 4.1% were moderate, and 0.5% severe. The most common symptoms were productive cough (15.7%) and headache (15.3%). Supportive and comorbidity therapy were given which showed excellent clinical outcomes.

Conclusions: This study presents the description of the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients during high surge cases of COVID-19 that are mostly dominated by Indonesian migrant workers in a field hospital. majority of COVID-19 patients were asymptomatic and therapy without antibiotics or antivirals showed positive outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

Management of COVID-19 in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Single-Center Case Series

Background

Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) were reported to be at higher risk of developing severe coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Despite being one of the most impacted countries, little is known about KTRs with COVID-19 in Indonesia. This report aims to explore the management strategies and short-term clinical outcomes of KTRs with COVID-19 in an Indonesian transplant center.

Methods

We observed KTRs who were admitted following COVID-19 diagnosis. Anamnesis, physical, laboratory, and radiologic examinations were performed. Demographic and transplant histories were recorded, along with symptoms, vaccination status, and management related to COVID-19.

Results

Nineteen KTRs were observed and 14 (73.6%) were male. The most common presenting symptoms were fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Nine (47.3%) KTRs had severe-critical COVID-19. The mortality rate was 42.1%. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was present in six (31.6%) of KTRs, five (83.3%) of whom were nonsurvivors. The median D-dimer level was higher in nonsurvivors (5,800 versus 670 μL), while other laboratory parameters were comparable. Seven (36.8%) KTRs were vaccinated. The mortality rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated KTRs were 14.2% and 70%, respectively. Antiviral therapy, anticoagulant, intravenous immunoglobulin, and tocilizumab were prescribed to 89.5%, 89.5%, 15.8%, and 10.5%, respectively. Immunosuppressive therapy (IST) was halted in 68% of KTRs, among which 61.5% passed away.

Conclusion

The clinical presentation of COVID-19 in KTRs was similar to that in the general population, whereas the mortality rate was higher. Management strategies for KTRs with COVID-19 should include prevention of AKI and hypercoagulation. Vaccination seems to be beneficial for KTRs, while temporary withdrawal of IST does not.

A systematic review of the case findings, testing and management of COVID-19

Background: Mass testing and adequate management are essential to terminate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This testing is due to the possibility of unidentified cases, especially ones without COVID-19 related symptoms. This review aimed to examine the outcome of the existing studies on the ways of identifying COVID-19 cases, and determine the populations at risk, symptom and diagnostic test management of  COVID-19.

Methods: The articles reviewed were scientific publications on the PubMed, Science Direct, ProQuest, and Scopus databases. The keywords used to obtain the data were COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and case detection, case management or diagnostic test. We applied the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Population, Intervention, Control and Outcomes (PICO) approaches.

Results: A total of 21 articles from 13 countries met the inclusion criteria and were further analyzed qualitatively. However, 62% of the articles used a rapid antibody test for screening rather than a rapid antigen test. According to the rapid antigen test, 51.3% were positive, with men aged above 50 years recording the highest number of cases. Furthermore, 57.1% of patients were symptomatic, while diagnostic tests' sensitivity and specificity increased to 100% in 14 days after the onset.

Conclusions:  Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)  is recommended by the World Health Organization for detection of COVID-19. Suppose it is unavailable, the rapid antigen test is used as an alternative rather than the rapid antibody test. Diagnosis is expected to be confirmed using the PCR and serological assay to achieve an early diagnosis of COVID-19, according to disease progression, gradual rapid tests can be used, such as rapid antigen in an earlier week and antibody tests confirmed by RT–PCR and serological assay in the second week of COVID-19.

The Role of Simple Blood Tests and a Modified Chest X-Ray Scoring System in Assessing the Severity Disease and Mortality Risk in COVID-19 Patients in a Secondary Hospital, Indonesia

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in millions of mortality cases and significant incremental costs to the healthcare system. Examination of CRP and D-dimer were considered to have higher costs, and the use of simple hematological parameters such as lymphocyte, neutrophil, and white blood cell (WBC) which have more affordable costs would be cost-saving. Radiological imaging complements clinical evaluation and laboratory parameters for managing COVID-19 patients. Therefore, categorizing patients into severe or non-severe becomes more defined, allowing for earlier interventions and decisions of hospital admission or being referred to a tertiary hospital.

Purpose

To evaluate the variables correlated with poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

Patients and Methods

This was a retrospective study on COVID-19 patients in a secondary referral hospital in treating COVID-19 in Indonesia. Demographic, clinical data, laboratory parameters, CXR (analyzed using a modified scoring system), and prognosis were collected through electronic nursing and medical records.

Results

This study included 476 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Severe patients were commonly found with older age (median of 57 vs 40), dyspnea (percentage of 85.2% vs 20.5%), higher CXR score (median of 7 vs 5), higher levels of neutrophil (median of 79.9 vs 68.3), and lower lymphocyte levels (median of 13.4 vs 22.7), compared to non-severe patients. These variables were known to increase the odds of severe disease. Older age (median of 57 vs 48), SpO₂ <94% room air (percentage of 87.4% vs 31.5%), higher CXR score (median of 8 vs 5), and higher respiratory rate (median of 25 vs 20) were found higher in death patients and were known to increase the odds of death outcome.

Conclusion

The simple blood tests (neutrophil and lymphocyte) and modified CXR scoring system are useful in risk stratification for severe disease and mortality in COVID-19 patients to decide the earlier interventions and treatment.

Pandemic inequity in a megacity: a multilevel analysis of individual, community and healthcare vulnerability risks for COVID-19 mortality in Jakarta, Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Worldwide, the 33 recognised megacities comprise approximately 7% of the global population, yet account for 20% COVID-19 deaths. The specific inequities and other factors within megacities that affect vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality remain poorly defined. We assessed individual, community-level and healthcare factors associated with COVID-19-related mortality in a megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia, during two epidemic waves spanning 2 March 2020 to 31 August 2021.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort included residents of Jakarta, Indonesia, with PCR-confirmed COVID-19. We extracted demographic, clinical, outcome (recovered or died), vaccine coverage data and disease prevalence from Jakarta Health Office surveillance records, and collected subdistrict level sociodemographics data from various official sources. We used multilevel logistic regression to examine individual, community and subdistrict-level healthcare factors and their associations with COVID-19 mortality.

RESULTS

Of 705 503 cases with a definitive outcome by 31 August 2021, 694 706 (98.5%) recovered and 10 797 (1.5%) died. The median age was 36 years (IQR 24-50), 13.2% (93 459) were <18 years and 51.6% were female. The subdistrict level accounted for 1.5% of variance in mortality (p<0.0001). Mortality ranged from 0.9 to 1.8% by subdistrict. Individual-level factors associated with death were older age, male sex, comorbidities and age <5 years during the first wave (adjusted OR (aOR)) 1.56, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.35; reference: age 20-29 years). Community-level factors associated with death were poverty (aOR for the poorer quarter 1.35, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.55; reference: wealthiest quarter) and high population density (aOR for the highest density 1.34, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.58; reference: the lowest). Healthcare factor associated with death was low vaccine coverage (aOR for the lowest coverage 1.25, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.38; reference: the highest).

CONCLUSION

In addition to individual risk factors, living in areas with high poverty and density, and low healthcare performance further increase the vulnerability of communities to COVID-19-associated death in urban low-resource settings.

MDR Pathogens Organisms as Risk Factor of Mortality in Secondary Pulmonary Bacterial Infections Among COVID-19 Patients: Observational Studies in Two Referral Hospitals in West Java, Indonesia

Purpose

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has created a global health crisis. Secondary pulmonary bacterial infection is a COVID-19 complication, increasing morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to determine the pathogens, antibiotic susceptibility patterns, and risk factors for mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective study used secondary data from patients’ electronic medical records at Hasan Sadikin General Hospital and Santo Borromeus Hospital between March 2020 and March 2021. Overall, 2230 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were screened, and 182 of them who were hospitalized ≥48 hours with a procalcitonin level of ≥0.25 ng/mL were enrolled. Culture examination was performed on sputum samples to determine pathogen and antibiotic susceptibilities. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine mortality-related risk factors in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Results

The prevalence of secondary pulmonary bacterial infections in COVID-19 patients was 8.2%, with 161/182 pathogen growth from sputum samples. Mainly gram-negative bacteria (64.8%) were present, including Acinetobacter baumannii (31.9%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (19.8%), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (8.8%). High rate of multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens was found among isolate (45.9%), ie carbapenem-resistance A.baumannii (CR-Ab) was 84.2%, extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) among K. pneumoniae was 61.1%. Secondary infection of MDR pathogens was associated with a higher risk of mortality (AOR 5.63, p = 0.001). Other associated factors were age ≥60 years, ventilator use, and female gender.

Conclusion

Gram-negative bacteria are the predominant pathogens causing secondary pulmonary bacterial infection in COVID-19 patients, implying nosocomial infection. High resistance to first-line antimicrobial drugs was observed in Gram-negative bacteria and Gram-positive bacteria. High rate of MDR pathogens was found among isolate and was associated with a significant risk of mortality.

Genome Profiling of SARS-CoV-2 in Indonesia, ASEAN and the Neighbouring East Asian Countries: Features, Challenges and Achievements

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has played a significant role in understanding the epidemiology and biology of SARS-CoV-2 virus. Here, we investigate the use of SARS-CoV-2 WGS in Southeast and East Asian countries as a genomic surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nottingham–Indonesia Collaboration for Clinical Research and Training (NICCRAT) initiative has facilitated collaboration between the University of Nottingham and a team in the Research Center for Biotechnology, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), to carry out a small number of SARS-CoV-2 WGS in Indonesia using Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT). Analyses of SARS- CoV-2 genomes deposited on GISAID reveal the importance of clinical and demographic metadata collection and the importance of open access and data sharing. Lineage and phylogenetic analyses of two periods defined by the Delta variant outbreak reveal that: (1) B.1.466.2 variants were the most predominant in Indonesia before the Delta variant outbreak, having a unique spike gene mutation N439K at more than 98% frequency, (2) Delta variants AY.23 sub-lineage took over after June 2021, and (3) the highest rate of virus transmissions between Indonesia and other countries was through interactions with Singapore and Japan, two neighbouring countries with a high degree of access and travels to and from Indonesia.

Titer disparity of anti-Spike receptor binding domain SARS-CoV-2 antibody between vaccinated and naturally infected individuals

In conjunction with other health promotion strategies, vaccination of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a strategy to alleviate the burden of infection. The aim of this study was to determine the differences in antibody response strength between individuals who received COVID-19 vaccination and those who had a natural infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A cross-sectional study was conducted among post-natural confirmed COVID-19 infection and immunized people in Bali, Indonesia. The vaccination was using Sinovac-CoronaVac with two-weeks interval between the two vaccine doses. To measure the level of anti-Spike receptor binding domain (SRBD) of SARS-CoV-2 antibody, we used Roche electro- chemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA) platform. Blood samples were obtained before and 28 days after first immunization in the vaccinated group, as well as two weeks after hospital discharge in the confirmed COVID-19 patients based on real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). A total of 58 confirmed COVID-19 patients and 60 vaccinated individuals were included. On the 28th day after the initial vaccination, the seroconversion rate among vaccinated individuals was 91.67%. The mean titer of anti-SRBD SARS-CoV-2 antibody among vaccinated participants was 63.62±82.57 IU/mL (ranged between 0 IU/mL and 250 IU/mL). The mean titer among naturally infected group was 188.47±94.57 IU/mL (ranged between 4.25 IU/mL to 250 IU/mL) regardless the severity of COVID-19. Our data suggested that the titer of anti- SRBD SARS-CoV-2 antibody was significantly higher in naturally infected individuals compared to those who received COVID-19 vaccination (p<0.001). These data suggest that not all individuals vaccinated with Sinovac COVID-19 had protective level of anti- SRBD SARS-CoV-2 antibody and booster dose of heterologous vaccine maybe required.

Demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of 27,256 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Kermanshah Province, Iran: a retrospective one-year cohort study

BACKGROUND

Since the first official report of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Iran on 19 February 2020, our country has been one of the worst affected countries by the COVID-19 epidemic in the Middle East. In addition to demographic and clinical characteristics, the number of hospitalized cases and deaths is an important factor for evidence-based decision-making and disease control and preparing the healthcare system to face the future challenges of COVID-19. Therefore, this cohort study was conducted to determine the demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Kermanshah Province, west of Iran.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective cohort study included all suspected, probable, and confirmed cases of COVID-19 hospitalized in Kermanshah Province, Iran during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Demographics, clinical characteristics, outcomes and other additional information of hospitalized patients were collected from the COVID-19 database of the Medical Care Monitoring Center (MCMC) of Kermanshah Province.

RESULTS

Kermanshah Province experienced three waves of COVID-19 infection considering the hospitalization and mortality rates between February 20, 2020 and February 19, 2021. A total of 27,256 patients were included in the study: 5203 (19.09%) subjects were suspected, 9136(33.52%) were probable, and 12,917 (47.39%) were confirmed COVID-19 cases. The mean age of the patients was 53.34 ± 22.74 years and 14,648 (53.74%) were male. The median length of hospital stay among COVID-19 survivors and non-survivors patients were 4 (interquartile range [IQR] 1-6) and 4 (IQR 1-8) days, respectively. Among patients with COVID-19, 2646 (9.71%) died during hospitalization. A multivariable logistic regression revealed that odds of death among patients ≥ 85 years was significantly greater than among patients < 15 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.43-6.71, p≤ 0.001). Patients with one (aOR 1.38, 95% CI 1.21-1.59, p = 0.04), two (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.27-1.92, p = 0.001) or more (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.04-2.17, p = 0.03) comorbidities had higher odds of in-hospital death compared to those without comorbidities. The male sex (aOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07- 1.35, p = 0.002), ICU admission (aOR 4.35, 95% CI 3.80-4.97, p < 0.001), intubation (aOR 11.09, 95% CI 9.58-12.84, p < 0.001), respiratory distress (aOR 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.61, p < 0.001), loss of consciousness (aOR 1.81, 95% CI 1.45-2.25, p < 0.001), anorexia (aOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.09-1.70, p = 0.006) and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) < 93(aOR 2.72, 95% CI 2.34-3.16, p < 0.001) on admission were associated with increased risk of death in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Having cough (aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.72-0.93, p = 0.003) and headache (aOR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.97, p = 0.03) decreased the odds of death.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate of the patients admitted to the general wards and ICU can be a guide for allocating resources and making appropriate plans to provide better medical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several risk factors are associated with the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19, including advanced age, male sex, ICU admission, intubation, having comorbidity, SpO2 < 93, respiratory distress, loss of consciousness, headache, anorexia, and cough. These risk factors could help clinicians identify patients at high risk for death.

The impact of pre-existing hypertension and its treatment on outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19

The impact of pre-existing hypertension on outcomes in patients with the novel corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) remains controversial. To address this, we examined the impact of pre-existing hypertension and its treatment on in-hospital mortality in patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19. Using the CAPACITY-COVID patient registry we examined the impact of pre-existing hypertension and guideline-recommended treatments for hypertension on in-hospital mortality in unadjusted and multi-variate-adjusted analyses using logistic regression. Data from 9197 hospitalised patients with Covid-19 (median age 69 [IQR 57–78] years, 60.6% male, n = 5573) was analysed. Of these, 48.3% (n = 4443) had documented pre-existing hypertension. Patients with pre-existing hypertension were older (73 vs. 62 years, p < 0.001) and had twice the occurrence of any cardiac disease (49.3 vs. 21.8%; p < 0.001) when compared to patients without hypertension. The most documented class of anti-hypertensive drugs were angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) or angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) (n = 2499, 27.2%). In-hospital mortality occurred in (n = 2020, 22.0%), with more deaths occurring in those with pre-existing hypertension (26.0 vs. 18.2%, p < 0.001). Pre-existing hypertension was associated with in-hospital mortality in unadjusted analyses (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.42,1.74), no significant association was found following multivariable adjustment for age and other hypertension-related covariates (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.87,1.10). Use of ACEi or ARB tended to have a protective effect for in-hospital mortality in fully adjusted models (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78,0.99). After appropriate adjustment for confounding, pre-existing hypertension, or treatment for hypertension, does not independently confer an increased risk of in-hospital mortality patients hospitalized with Covid-19.

COVID-19 Mortality in Children: A Referral Center Experience from Iran (Mofid Children’s Hospital, Tehran, Iran)

Background. The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. It spread widely around the world and was described as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The knowledge regarding the mortality rate and risk factors of COVID-19 among the pediatric population is lacking. In this regard, we aimed to report the clinical and laboratory characteristics of deceased pediatric patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Method. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Mofid Children’s Hospital, Tehran, Iran, from February 2020 to April 2021. Recorded documents of 59 pediatric patients (under 18 years old) assumed to have COVID-19 who had died in the COVID-19 ward and COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) were retrospectively evaluated. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software (v. 26.0, Chicago, IL). A $P$ value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results. From 711 COVID-19 definite and suspected patients, 59 children died. Of these deceased pediatric patients, 34 were boys (57.62%) and 25 were girls (42.37%), with a total mean age of 5.6 years. The median length of stay in the hospital was 10 days (range 1–215). 91.52% had underlying comorbidities of which neurological diseases accounted for the largest share. 54 patients were admitted to the ICU and 83.05% of them had intubation during their hospitalization. In addition, the most common reasons for death in our study were related to respiratory and multiorgan failure. Conclusion. According to our knowledge, we are the first team to report such a thorough study in the field of COVID-19 pediatric mortality in Iran. Mortality was observed in all age groups of children, especially in those with previous comorbidities, specifically neurological disease. Abnormally elevated tests of ESR, CRP, LDH, AST, and ALT as well as the presence of proteinuria and hematuria were found in more than 50% of patients in our investigations, and ICU admission between both definite and suspected groups had significant differences, so monitoring and considering these factors may help to control and reduce the progression of the disease to death.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19: A retrospective nationwide study in Malaysia

Background

Age and multiple comorbidities have been reported to influence the case fatality rate of COVID-19 worldwide, so also in Malaysia; however, to date, no scientific study among the local population has been published to confirm this. This study aimed to determine the overall demographics and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 non-survivors in Malaysia, stratified by age (< 65 vs. ≥ 65 years old). The mortality was also compared between two half-year periods: March–August 2020 and September 2020–March 2021.

Method

Daily reports containing demographics and medical history of COVID-19 non-survivors from March 2020 to March 2021 were obtained from the Malaysian Ministry of Health website. All information was extracted retrospectively and analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics with SPSS.

Results

Of 1192 COVID-19 non-survivors, the overall mean (SD) age was 64.8 (15.7) years, with 64.7% male. Death was seen mostly among 50- to 64-year-olds (33.1%) and 65- to 74-year-olds (24.8%). The presence of underlying hypertension (61.8%) and diabetes mellitus (48.2%) were the most common comorbid diseases encountered in the COVID-19 non-survivors. Underlying hypertension, stroke, heart disease and dyslipidaemia were significantly higher among COVID-19 non-survivors who were ≥ 65 years old compared to those < 65 ( p < 0.05). Mortality was a lot higher in September 2020–March 2021 compared to March 2020–August 2020 (91.3% vs. 8.3%).

Conclusion

Older age, male gender and the presence of multimorbidity (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, stroke and heart disease) are risk factors that contribute to mortality due to COVID-19 in Malaysia, especially among those ≥ 65 years old.

Characteristics of children with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Indonesia

Objective

COVID-19 in children poses a significant challenge due to the atypical/asymptomatic presentations. The study is aimed to help understand clinical characteristics in Indonesian children for better management and control of transmission.

Methods

clinical characteristics of children with confirmed COVID-19 were retrospectively analysed from the database dating from March to November 2020.

Results

the study revealed a high prevalence (67.3%) of asymptomatic cases from contact tracing population. The most common symptoms in children with confirmed COVID-19 were cough and fatigue. Among symptomatic patients, 14/21 (66.7%) had either radiological and/or clinical evidence of pneumonia.

Conclusion

children with respiratory symptoms especially those with contact history should be screened for possible COVID-19 infection regardless of disease severity.

Evaluation of Antibacterial and Antiviral Drug Effectiveness in COVID-19 Therapy: A Data-Driven Retrospective Approach

The clinical manifestations associated with COVID-19 disease is mainly due to a dysregulated host response related to the overexpression of inflammatory markers. Until recently, only remdesivir had gained FDA approval for COVID-19 hospitalized patients and there are currently no evidence-based therapeutic options or options for prevention of complications that have been established. Some medical treatments such as antivirals, antibacterials, antithrombotics, antipyretics, corticosteroids, interleukin inhibitors, monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, immunostimulants, and vitamin supplements have been utilized. However, there are limited data to support their effectiveness. Hence, this study was attempted to identify and evaluate the effectiveness of antibacterials and antivirals used for COVID-19 using a retrospective cross-sectional approach based on the medical records of adult patients in four hospitals. The number of antibacterials was calculated in defined daily dose (DDD) per 100 bed-days unit. Both mixed-logit regression and analysis of covariance were used to determine the effectiveness of the aforementioned agents in relation to COVID-19 outcome and patients’ length of stay. The model was weighed accordingly and covariates (e.g., age) were considered in the model. Heart disease was found to be the most common pre-existing condition of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in this study. Azithromycin, an antibacterial in the Watch category list, was used extensively (33–65 DDD per 100 bed-days). Oseltamivir, an antiviral approved by the FDA for influenza was the most prescribed antiviral. In addition, favipiravir was found to be a significant factor in improving patients’ COVID-19 outcomes and decreasing their length of stay. This study strongly suggests that COVID-19 patients’ received polypharmacy for their treatment. However, most of the drugs used did not reach statistical significance in improving the patients’ condition or decreasing the length of stay. Further studies to support drug use are needed.

Age Dependent Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 Outbreak in Kuwait, France, and Cameroon

Revisiting the classical model by Ross and Kermack-McKendrick, the Susceptible−Infectious−Recovered (SIR) model used to formalize the COVID-19 epidemic, requires improvements which will be the subject of this article. The heterogeneity in the age of the populations concerned leads to considering models in age groups with specific susceptibilities, which makes the prediction problem more difficult. Basically, there are three age groups of interest which are, respectively, 0−19 years, 20−64 years, and >64 years, but in this article, we only consider two (20−64 years and >64 years) age groups because the group 0−19 years is widely seen as being less infected by the virus since this age group had a low infection rate throughout the pandemic era of this study, especially the countries under consideration. In this article, we proposed a new mathematical age-dependent (Susceptible−Infectious−Goneanewsusceptible−Recovered (SIGR)) model for the COVID-19 outbreak and performed some mathematical analyses by showing the positivity, boundedness, stability, existence, and uniqueness of the solution. We performed numerical simulations of the model with parameters from Kuwait, France, and Cameroon. We discuss the role of these different parameters used in the model; namely, vaccination on the epidemic dynamics. We open a new perspective of improving an age-dependent model and its application to observed data and parameters.

Differential mortality with COVID-19 and invasive mechanical ventilation between high-income and low-and middle-income countries: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

The COVID-19 pandemic has markedly affected the health care of patients in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but no systematic study to corroborate this effect has been undertaken. In addition, the survival outcomes of patients with COVID-19 who received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) have not been well established. We pooled evidence from all available studies and did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess and compare mortality outcomes between LMICs and high-income countries (HICs). We searched MEDLINE and the University of Michigan Library according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines from December 1, 2019, to July 15, 2021, for case-control studies, cohort studies, and brief reports that discussed mortality ratios and survival outcomes among patients with SARS-CoV-2 who received IMV. We excluded studies and case reports without comparison groups, narrative reviews, and preprints. A random-effects estimate of the arcsine square root transformation (PAS) of each outcome was generated with the DerSimonian-Laird method. Seven eligible studies, consisting of 243,835 patients with COVID-19, were included. We identified a significantly higher mortality rate (i.e., a larger PAS) among the patients receiving IMV in LMICs (PAS, 0.754; 95% CI, 0.569-0.900; P<.001) compared to patients in HICs (PAS, 0.588; 95% CI, 0.263-0.876; P<.001). Considerable heterogeneity was present within the individual subgroups possibly because of the extent of the included studies, which had data from specific countries and states but not from individual hospitals or health care centers. Moreover, the sample population in each study was diverse. Meta-regression showed that a higher mortality rate among patients with COVID-19 who received IMV in both HICs (P<.001) and LMICs (P=.04) was associated with chronic pulmonary disease. Our study suggests that chronic pulmonary diseases and poor demographics lead to a worse prognosis among patients with COVID-19 who received IMV. Moreover, the survival outcome is worse in LMICs, where health care systems are usually understaffed and poorly financed.

Not Only High Number and Specific Comorbidities but Also Age Are Closely Related to Progression and Poor Prognosis in Patients With COVID-19

Background: Some patients with comorbidities and rapid disease progression have a poor prognosis.

Aim: We aimed to investigate the characteristics of comorbidities and their relationship with disease progression and outcomes of COVID-19 patients.

Methods: A total of 718 COVID-19 patients were divided into five clinical type groups and eight age-interval groups. The characteristics of comorbidities were compared between the different clinical type groups and between the different age-interval groups, and their relationships with disease progression and outcomes of COVID-19 patients were assessed.

Results: Approximately 91.23% (655/718) of COVID-19 patients were younger than 60 years old. Approximately 64.76% (465/718) had one or more comorbidities, and common comorbidities included non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), hyperlipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic hepatitis B (CHB), hyperuricaemia, and gout. COVID-19 patients with comorbidities were older, especially those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Hypertension, DM, COPD, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and CVD were mainly found in severe COVID-19 patients. According to spearman correlation analysis the number of comorbidities was correlated positively with disease severity, the number of comorbidities and NAFLD were correlated positively with virus negative conversion time, hypertension, CKD and CVD were primarily associated with those who died, and the above-mentioned correlation existed independently of age. Risk factors included age, the number of comorbidities and hyperlipidaemia for disease severity, the number of comorbidities, hyperlipidaemia, NAFLD and COPD for the virus negative conversion time, and the number of comorbidities and CKD for prognosis. Number of comorbidities and age played a predictive role in disease progression and outcomes.

Conclusion: Not only high number and specific comorbidities but also age are closely related to progression and poor prognosis in patients with COVID-19. These findings provide a reference for clinicians to focus on not only the number and specific comorbidities but also age in COVID-19 patients to predict disease progression and prognosis.

Clinical Trial Registry: Chinese Clinical Trial Register ChiCTR2000034563.

COVID-19 and chronic kidney disease: an updated overview of reviews

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in the death of more than 3.5 million people worldwide. While COVID-19 mostly affects the lungs, different comorbidities can have an impact on its outcomes. We performed an overview of reviews to assess the effect of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) on contracting COVID-19, hospitalization, mortality, and disease severity.

METHODS

We searched published and preprint databases. We updated the reviews by searching for primary studies published after August 2020, and prioritized reviews that are most updated and of higher quality using the AMSTAR tool.

RESULTS

We included 69 systematic reviews and 66 primary studies. Twenty-eight reviews reported on the prevalence of CKD among patients with COVID-19, which ranged from 0.4 to 49.0%. One systematic review showed an increased risk of hospitalization in patients with CKD and COVID-19 (RR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.03-2.58) (Moderate certainty). Primary studies also showed a statistically significant increase of hospitalization in such patients. Thirty-seven systematic reviews assessed mortality risk in patients with CKD and COVID-19. The pooled estimates from primary studies for mortality in patients with CKD and COVID-19 showed a HR of 1.48 (95% CI 1.33-1.65) (Moderate certainty), an OR of 1.77 (95% CI 1.54-2.02) (Moderate certainty) and a RR of 1.6 (95% CI 0.88-2.92) (Low certainty).

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights the impact of CKD on the poor outcomes of COVID-19, underscoring the importance of identifying strategies to prevent COVID-19 infection among patients with CKD.

Economic evaluations of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in six Western Pacific and South East Asian countries and regions: A modeling study

Objective

The present study aimed to document the economic profiles of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the evidence on which is currently absent.

Methods

Decision tree models were developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of two doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines at a population vaccination rate of 50% in the base case, which was an estimate of feasible vaccination coverage according to previous studies. Epidemiological, mortality, cost, and health state utility information were sourced from the literature. Vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 cases by severity were estimated using meta-analyses of publicly accessible phase 3 trial results of inactivated vaccines. The health outcomes were quantified as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and compared across the vaccination and no vaccination strategies. In scenario analyses, incidence and vaccination rates were changed semi-continuously over spectrums, the results of which were presented as contour lines informing the efficiency frontiers of vaccination strategies. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

Results

The vaccination strategy was dominant in all jurisdictions in the base case by producing 105.18, 98.15, 99.70, 60.48, 112.00, and 103.47 QALYs while saving US$40.26 million, US$5.26 million, US$7.60 million, US$5.91 million, US$21.33 million, and US$7.18 million in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand per every 100,000 vaccinated individuals, respectively. Results were robust in alternative model specifications.

Conclusions

Inactivated COVID-19 vaccines may be cost-saving options in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Mass vaccination programs using inactivated COVID-19 vaccines should be considered in these jurisdictions.

Risk factors for poor prognosis in children and adolescents with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This study provides the first systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the predictors of unfavorable prognosis of COVID-19 in children and adolescents.

METHODS

We searched literature databases until July 2021 for studies that investigated risk factors for unfavorable prognosis of children and adolescents with COVID-19. We used random-effects models to estimate the effect size with 95% confidence interval (CI).

FINDINGS

We identified 56 studies comprising 79,104 individuals. Mortality was higher in patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) (odds ratio [OR]=58.00, 95% CI 6.39-526.79) and who were admitted to intensive care (OR=12.64, 95% CI 3.42-46.68). Acute respiratry distress syndrme (ARDS) (OR=29.54, 95% CI 12.69-68.78) and acute kidney injury (AKI) (OR=55.02, 95% CI 6.26-483.35) increased the odds to be admitted to intensive care; shortness of breath (OR=16.96, 95% CI 7.66-37.51) increased the need of respiratory support; and neurological diseases (OR=5.16, 95% CI 2.30-11.60), C-reactive protein (CRP) level ≥80 mg/L (OR=11.70, 95% CI 4.37-31.37) and D-dimer level ≥0.5ug/mL (OR=20.40, 95% CI 1.76-236.44) increased the odds of progression to severe or critical disease.

INTERPRETATION

Congenital heart disease, chronic pulmonary disease, neurological diseases, obesity, MIS-C, shortness of breath, ARDS, AKI, gastrointestinal symptoms, elevated CRP and D-dimer are associated with unfavourable prognosis in children and adolescents with COVID-19.

Hyperactivated RAGE in Comorbidities as a Risk Factor for Severe COVID-19-The Role of RAGE-RAS Crosstalk

The receptor for advanced glycation-end products (RAGE) is a multiligand receptor with a role in inflammatory and pulmonary pathologies. Hyperactivation of RAGE by its ligands has been reported to sustain inflammation and oxidative stress in common comorbidities of severe COVID-19. RAGE is essential to the deleterious effects of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), which participates in infection and multiorgan injury in COVID-19 patients. Thus, RAGE might be a major player in severe COVID-19, and appears to be a useful therapeutic molecular target in infections by SARS-CoV-2. The role of RAGE gene polymorphisms in predisposing patients to severe COVID-19 is discussed.&nbsp.

How should Indonesia consider its neglected tropical diseases in the COVID-19 era? Hopes and challenges (Review)

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, some countries, including Indonesia, have faced a double burden with regards to disease control. As Indonesia is a tropical country, it serves as a suitable host for disease vectors and multiple microorganisms of causative agents of disease. In total, five of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) should be a consideration in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic, including leprosy, yaws, filariasis, soil-transmitted helminths and schistosomiasis. The present review summarises the preparedness of Indonesia in facing NTDs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening government leadership will be a valuable factor for combating NTDs in Indonesia. For instance, strong leadership can lead to precise management, by increasing the number of health facilities, engaging in active case identification, conducting health campaigns and instituting new regulations to prevent the stigmatization faced by patients. Preventive medicine in the first level of health facilities can be prioritized and presented to the community via health campaigns, health advocacy and improvement in follow-up after active case surveillance. Government-supported integrated management is also a key component in eliminating NTD. Moreover, healthy lifestyle campaigns that include social distancing, wearing a mask and regularly washing hands should be promoted continuously to reduce the transmission of COVID-19, which is potentially associated with a poor outcome in individuals with NTDs. This review concluded that the Indonesian government should strengthen their efforts toward NTD control using alternative methods, such as involving key citizens in the collaboration of the detection of new cases and introducing mobile health as a means of detecting health problems or following up on patient progress. To reduce the transmission of COVID-19, testing, tracing and treatment must be improved, so that the gap between suspected cases and confirmed cases of COVID-19 can be closed. If the transmission of COVID-19 can be decreased, case detection and efforts toward NTD control can be conducted effectively.