The risk of oesophago-gastric cancer in symptomatic patients in primary care: a large case-control study using electronic records

Pancreatic cancer symptom trajectories from Danish registry data and free text in electronic health records

Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancer types with poor treatment options. Better detection of early symptoms and relevant disease correlations could improve pancreatic cancer prognosis. In this retrospective study, we used symptom and disease codes (ICD-10) from the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR) encompassing 6.9 million patients from 1994 to 2018,, of whom 23,592 were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. The Danish cancer registry included 18,523 of these patients. To complement and compare the registry diagnosis codes with deeper clinical data, we used a text mining approach to extract symptoms from free text clinical notes in electronic health records (3078 pancreatic cancer patients and 30,780 controls). We used both data sources to generate and compare symptom disease trajectories to uncover temporal patterns of symptoms prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis for the same patients. We show that the text mining of the clinical notes was able to complement the registry-based symptoms by capturing more symptoms prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis. For example, 'Blood pressure reading without diagnosis', 'Abnormalities of heartbeat', and 'Intestinal obstruction' were not found for the registry-based analysis. Chaining symptoms together in trajectories identified two groups of patients with lower median survival (<90 days) following the trajectories 'Cough→Jaundice→Intestinal obstruction' and 'Pain→Jaundice→Abnormal results of function studies'. These results provide a comprehensive comparison of the two types of pancreatic cancer symptom trajectories, which in combination can leverage the full potential of the health data and ultimately provide a fuller picture for detection of early risk factors for pancreatic cancer.

Are There Ethnic Differences in Recorded Features among Patients Subsequently Diagnosed with Cancer? An English Longitudinal Data-Linked Study

We investigated ethnic differences in the presenting features recorded in primary care before cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

English population-based cancer-registry-linked primary care data were analysed. We identified the coded features of six cancers (breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, oesophagogastric, and myeloma) in the year pre-diagnosis. Logistic regression models investigated ethnic differences in first-incident cancer features, adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, deprivation, and comorbidity.

RESULTS

Of 130,944 patients, 92% were White. In total, 188,487 incident features were recorded in the year pre-diagnosis, with 48% (89,531) as sole features. Compared with White patients, Asian and Black patients with breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer were more likely than White patients to have multiple features; the opposite was seen for the Black and Other ethnic groups with lung or prostate cancer. The proportion with relevant recorded features was broadly similar by ethnicity, with notable cancer-specific exceptions. Asian and Black patients were more likely to have low-risk features (e.g., cough, upper abdominal pain) recorded. Non-White patients were less likely to have alarm features.

CONCLUSION

The degree to which these differences reflect disease, patient or healthcare factors is unclear. Further research examining the predictive value of cancer features in ethnic minority groups and their association with cancer outcomes is needed.

Protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial assessing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Electronic RIsk-assessment for CAncer for patients in general practice (ERICA)

INTRODUCTION

The UK has worse cancer outcomes than most comparable countries, with a large contribution attributed to diagnostic delay. Electronic risk assessment tools (eRATs) have been developed to identify primary care patients with a ≥2% risk of cancer using features recorded in the electronic record.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in English primary care. Individual general practices will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to intervention (provision of eRATs for six common cancer sites) or to usual care. The primary outcome is cancer stage at diagnosis, dichotomised to stage 1 or 2 (early) or stage 3 or 4 (advanced) for these six cancers, assessed from National Cancer Registry data. Secondary outcomes include stage at diagnosis for a further six cancers without eRATs, use of urgent referral cancer pathways, total practice cancer diagnoses, routes to cancer diagnosis and 30-day and 1-year cancer survival. Economic and process evaluations will be performed along with service delivery modelling. The primary analysis explores the proportion of patients with early-stage cancer at diagnosis. The sample size calculation used an OR of 0.8 for a cancer being diagnosed at an advanced stage in the intervention arm compared with the control arm, equating to an absolute reduction of 4.8% as an incidence-weighted figure across the six cancers. This requires 530 practices overall, with the intervention active from April 2022 for 2 years.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial has approval from London City and East Research Ethics Committee, reference number 19/LO/0615; protocol version 5.0, 9 May 2022. It is sponsored by the University of Exeter. Dissemination will be by journal publication, conferences, use of appropriate social media and direct sharing with cancer policymakers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN22560297.

Development and validation of a multivariable risk factor questionnaire to detect oesophageal cancer in 2-week wait patients

INTRODUCTION

Oesophageal cancer is associated with poor health outcomes. Upper GI (UGI) endoscopy is the gold standard for diagnosis but is associated with patient discomfort and low yield for cancer. We used a machine learning approach to create a model which predicted oesophageal cancer based on questionnaire responses.

METHODS

We used data from 2 separate prospective cross-sectional studies: the Saliva to Predict rIsk of disease using Transcriptomics and epigenetics (SPIT) study and predicting RIsk of diSease using detailed Questionnaires (RISQ) study. We recruited patients from National Health Service (NHS) suspected cancer pathways as well as patients with known cancer. We identified patient characteristics and questionnaire responses which were most associated with the development of oesophageal cancer. Using the SPIT dataset, we trained seven different machine learning models, selecting the best area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to create our final model. We further applied a cost function to maximise cancer detection. We then independently validated the model using the RISQ dataset.

RESULTS

807 patients were included in model training and testing, split in a 70:30 ratio. 294 patients were included in model validation. The best model during training was regularised logistic regression using 17 features (median AUC: 0.81, interquartile range (IQR): 0.69-0.85). For testing and validation datasets, the model achieved an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61-0.81) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96) respectively. At a set cut off, our model achieved a sensitivity of 97.6% and specificity of 59.1%. We additionally piloted the model in 12 patients with gastric cancer; 9/12 (75%) of patients were correctly classified.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated a risk stratification tool using a questionnaire approach. This could aid prioritising patients at high risk of having oesophageal cancer for endoscopy. Our tool could help address endoscopic backlogs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Examining methodology to identify patterns of consulting in primary care for different groups of patients before a diagnosis of cancer: An exemplar applied to oesophagogastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Current methods for estimating the timeliness of cancer diagnosis are not robust because dates of key defining milestones, for example first presentation, are uncertain. This is exacerbated when patients have other conditions (multimorbidity), particularly those that share symptoms with cancer. Methods independent of this uncertainty are needed for accurate estimates of the timeliness of cancer diagnosis, and to understand how multimorbidity impacts the diagnostic process.

METHODS

Participants were diagnosed with oesophagogastric cancer between 2010 and 2019. Controls were matched on year of birth, sex, general practice and multimorbidity burden calculated using the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score. Primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) was used to explore population-level consultation rates for up to two years before diagnosis across different multimorbidity burdens. Five approaches were compared on the timing of the consultation frequency increase, the inflection point for different multimorbidity burdens, different aggregated time-periods and sample sizes.

RESULTS

We included 15,410 participants, of which 13,328 (86.5 %) had a measurable multimorbidity burden. Our new maximum likelihood estimation method found evidence that the inflection point in consultation frequency varied with multimorbidity burden, from 154 days (95 %CI 131.8-176.2) before diagnosis for patients with no multimorbidity, to 126 days (108.5-143.5) for patients with the greatest multimorbidity burden. Inflection points identified using alternative methods were closer to diagnosis for up to three burden groups. Sample size reduction and changing the aggregation period resulted in inflection points closer to diagnosis, with the smallest change for the maximum likelihood method.

DISCUSSION

Existing methods to identify changes in consultation rates can introduce substantial bias which depends on sample size and aggregation period. The direct maximum likelihood method was less prone to this bias than other methods and offers a robust, population-level alternative for estimating the timeliness of cancer diagnosis.

Agreement between patient's description of abdominal symptoms of possible upper gastrointestinal cancer and general practitioner consultation notes: a qualitative analysis of video-recorded UK primary care consultation data

INTRODUCTION

Abdominal symptoms are common in primary care but infrequently might be due to an upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer. Patients' descriptions may differ from medical terminology used by general practitioners (GPs). This may affect how information about abdominal symptoms possibly due to an UGI cancer are documented, creating potential missed opportunities for timely investigation.

OBJECTIVES

To explore how abdominal symptoms are communicated during primary care consultations, and identify characteristics of patients' descriptions that underpin variation in the accuracy and completeness with which they are documented in medical records.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Primary care consultation video recordings, transcripts and medical records from an existing dataset were screened for adults reporting abdominal symptoms. We conducted a qualitative content analysis to capture alignments (medical record entries matching patient verbal and non-verbal descriptions) and misalignments (symptom information omitted or differing from patient descriptions). Categories were informed by the Calgary-Cambridge guide's 'gathering information' domains and patterns in descriptions explored.

RESULTS

Our sample included 28 consultations (28 patients with 18 GPs): 10 categories of different clinical features of abdominal symptoms were discussed. The information GPs documented about these features commonly did not match what patients described, with misalignments more common than alignments (67 vs 43 instances, respectively). Misalignments often featured patients using vague descriptors, figurative speech, lengthy explanations and broad hand gestures. Alignments were characterised by patients using well-defined terms, succinct descriptions and precise gestures for symptoms with an exact location. Abdominal sensations reported as 'pain' were almost always documented compared with expressions of 'discomfort'.

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal symptoms that are well defined or communicated as 'pain' may be more salient to GPs than those expressed vaguely or as 'discomfort'. Variable documentation of abdominal symptoms in medical records may have implications for the development of clinical decision support systems and decisions to investigate possible UGI cancer.

Applying a genetic risk score for prostate cancer to men with lower urinary tract symptoms in primary care to predict prostate cancer diagnosis: a cohort study in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is highly heritable, with >250 common variants associated in genome-wide association studies. It commonly presents with non-specific lower urinary tract symptoms that are frequently associated with benign conditions.

METHODS

Cohort study using UK Biobank data linked to primary care records. Participants were men with a record showing a general practice consultation for a lower urinary tract symptom. The outcome measure was prostate cancer diagnosis within 2 years of consultation. The predictor was a genetic risk score of 269 genetic variants for prostate cancer.

RESULTS

A genetic risk score (GRS) is associated with prostate cancer in symptomatic men (OR per SD increase = 2.12 [1.86-2.41] P = 3.5e-30). An integrated risk model including age and GRS applied to symptomatic men predicted prostate cancer (AUC 0.768 [0.739-0.796]). Prostate cancer incidence was 8.1% (6.7-9.7) in the highest risk quintile. In the lowest quintile, prostate cancer incidence was <1%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to apply GRS in primary care to improve the triage of symptomatic patients. Men with the lowest genetic risk of developing prostate cancer could safely avoid invasive investigation, whilst those identified with the greatest risk could be fast-tracked for further investigation. These results show that a GRS has potential application to improve the diagnostic pathway of symptomatic patients in primary care.

Machine Learning for Risk Prediction of Oesophago-Gastric Cancer in Primary Care: Comparison with Existing Risk-Assessment Tools

Simple Summary

Oesophago-gastric cancer is one of the commonest cancers worldwide, yet it can be particularly difficult to diagnose given that initial symptoms are often non-specific and routine screening is not available. Cancer risk-assessment tools, which calculate cancer risk based on symptoms and other risk factors present in the primary care record, can aid decisions on referrals for cancer investigations, facilitating earlier diagnosis. Diagnosing common cancers earlier could help improve survival rates. Using UK primary care electronic health record data, we compared five different machine learning techniques for probabilistic classification of cancer patients against a current widely used UK primary care cancer risk-assessment tool. The machine learning algorithms outperformed the current risk-assessment tool, with a higher overall accuracy and an ability to reasonably identify 11–25% more cancer patients. We conclude that machine-learning-based risk-assessment tools could help better identify suitable patients for further investigation and support earlier diagnosis.

Abstract

Oesophago-gastric cancer is difficult to diagnose in the early stages given its typical non-specific initial manifestation. We hypothesise that machine learning can improve upon the diagnostic performance of current primary care risk-assessment tools by using advanced analytical techniques to exploit the wealth of evidence available in the electronic health record. We used a primary care electronic health record dataset derived from the UK General Practice Research Database (7471 cases; 32,877 controls) and developed five probabilistic machine learning classifiers: Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Extreme Gradient Boosted Decision Trees. Features included basic demographics, symptoms, and lab test results. The Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Extreme Gradient Boosted Decision Tree models achieved the highest performance in terms of accuracy and AUROC (0.89 accuracy, 0.87 AUROC), outperforming a current UK oesophago-gastric cancer risk-assessment tool (ogRAT). Machine learning also identified more cancer patients than the ogRAT: 11.0% more with little to no effect on false positives, or up to 25.0% more with a slight increase in false positives (for Logistic Regression, results threshold-dependent). Feature contribution estimates and individual prediction explanations indicated clinical relevance. We conclude that machine learning could improve primary care cancer risk-assessment tools, potentially helping clinicians to identify additional cancer cases earlier. This could, in turn, improve survival outcomes.

Dyspepsia with alarm symptoms in patients aged less than 60 years: Is upper gastrointestinal endoscopy justified in Indian scenario?

BACKGROUND

Newer American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) and Canadian Association of Gastroenterology (CAG) guidelines do not suggest endoscopy to investigate alarm features for dyspepsia patients under the age of 60 to exclude upper gastrointestinal (GI) neoplasia. The validity of this recommendation has not been evaluated in our population. So, this study was conducted to assess the utility of upper GI endoscopy to investigate alarm features in dyspepsia patients less than 60 years of age to exclude upper GI neoplasia.

METHODS

This prospective observational study evaluated consecutive patients of dyspepsia between 18 and 60 years of age, with at least one or more of the alarm symptoms (unintentional weight loss; loss of appetite; GI bleeding; anemia; recurrent or persistent vomiting; dysphagia with predominant epigastric pain; and family history of upper GI cancer) with upper GI endoscopy to exclude any organic lesion and malignancy.

RESULTS

Of total 294 patients evaluated with endoscopy, 34.7% (n=102) had normal endoscopy (functional dyspepsia [FD]) while 65.3% (n=192) had abnormal endoscopic findings (organic dyspepsia [OD]). Of 192 patients with OD, 146 patients (49.6% of the total study population) had benign abnormality (benign OD) while 46 patients (15.6% of the total study population) had malignancy of the upper GI tract (malignant OD).

CONCLUSION

The investigation of alarm features in dyspepsia patients less than 60 years of age with upper GI endoscopy leads to detection of organic lesion (65.3%) including malignancy (15.6%) in a significant percentage of patients.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the management of functional dyspepsia

Functional dyspepsia (FD) is a common disorder of gut-brain interaction, affecting approximately 7% of individuals in the community, with most patients managed in primary care. The last British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guideline for the management of dyspepsia was published in 1996. In the interim, substantial advances have been made in understanding the complex pathophysiology of FD, and there has been a considerable amount of new evidence published concerning its diagnosis and classification, with the advent of the Rome IV criteria, and management. The primary aim of this guideline, commissioned by the BSG, is to review and summarise the current evidence to inform and guide clinical practice, by providing a practical framework for evidence-based diagnosis and treatment of patients. The approach to investigating the patient presenting with dyspepsia is discussed, and efficacy of drugs in FD summarised based on evidence derived from a comprehensive search of the medical literature, which was used to inform an update of a series of pairwise and network meta-analyses. Specific recommendations have been made according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system. These provide both the strength of the recommendations and the overall quality of evidence. Finally, in this guideline, we consider novel treatments that are in development, as well as highlighting areas of unmet need and priorities for future research.

Concordance with urgent referral guidelines in patients presenting with any of six 'alarm' features of possible cancer: a retrospective cohort study using linked primary care records

BACKGROUND

Clinical guidelines advise GPs in England which patients warrant an urgent referral for suspected cancer. This study assessed how often GPs follow the guidelines, whether certain patients are less likely to be referred, and how many patients were diagnosed with cancer within 1 year of non-referral.

METHODS

We used linked primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), secondary care (Hospital Episode Statistics) and cancer registration data. Patients presenting with haematuria, breast lump, dysphagia, iron-deficiency anaemia, post-menopausal or rectal bleeding for the first time during 2014-2015 were included (for ages where guidelines recommend urgent referral). Logistic regression was used to investigate whether receiving a referral was associated with feature type and patient characteristics. Cancer incidence (based on recorded diagnoses in cancer registry data within 1 year of presentation) was compared between those receiving and those not receiving referrals.

RESULTS

48 715 patients were included, of which 40% (n=19 670) received an urgent referral within 14 days of presentation, varying by feature from 17% (dysphagia) to 68% (breast lump). Young patients (18-24 vs 55-64 years; adjusted OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.42, p<0.001) and those with comorbidities (4 vs 0 comorbidities; adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.94, p<0.001) were less likely to receive a referral. Associations between patient characteristics and referrals differed across features: among patients presenting with anaemia, breast lump or haematuria, those with multi-morbidity, and additionally for breast lump, more deprived patients were less likely to receive a referral. Of 29 045 patients not receiving a referral, 3.6% (1047) were diagnosed with cancer within 1 year, ranging from 2.8% for rectal bleeding to 9.5% for anaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Guideline recommendations for action are not followed for the majority of patients presenting with common possible cancer features. A significant number of these patients developed cancer within 1 year of their consultation, indicating scope for improvement in the diagnostic process.

Intra-abdominal cancer risk with abdominal pain: a prospective cohort primary-care study

Background: Quantifying cancer risk in primary-care patients reporting abdominal pain would inform diagnostic strategies. Aim: To quantify oesophagogastric, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, ovarian, uterine, kidney and bladder cancer risks associated with newly reported abdominal pain with or without other symptoms, signs or abnormal blood tests (i.e. features) indicative of possible cancer. Design and setting: Observational prospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink records with English cancer registry linkage. Methods: Participants (N=125,793) aged ≥40 years had newly reported abdominal pain in primary care during 01/01/2009-31/12/2013. The outcomes were 1-year cumulative incidence of cancer, and the composite 1-year cumulative incidence of cancers with shared additional features, stratified by age and sex. Results: With abdominal pain, overall risk was greater in men and increased with age, reaching 3.4% (95%CI 3.0–3.7%; predominantly colorectal cancer 1.9%, 1.6–2.1%) in men ≥70 years, compared with their expected incidence of 0.88% (0.87%–0.89%). Additional features increased cancer risk; for example, colorectal or pancreatic cancer risk with abdominal pain plus diarrhoea at 60–69 and ≥70, respectively, was 3.1% (1.9–4.9%) and 4.9% (3.7–6.4%), predominantly colorectal cancer (2.2%, 2–3.8% and 3.3%, 2.0–4.9%). Conclusions: Abdominal pain increases intra-abdominal cancer risk nearly fourfold in men aged ≥70, exceeding the 3% threshold warranting investigation. This threshold is surpassed for the over-60s only with additional features. These results help direct appropriate referral and testing strategies for patients based on their demographic profile and reporting features. We suggest non-invasive strategies first, such as faecal immunochemical testing, with safety-netting in a shared decision-making framework.

Role of primary care physician factors on diagnostic testing and referral decisions for symptoms of possible cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Missed opportunities for diagnosing cancer cause patients harm and have been attributed to suboptimal use of tests and referral pathways in primary care. Primary care physician (PCP) factors have been suggested to affect decisions to investigate cancer, but their influence is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To synthesise evidence evaluating the influence of PCP factors on decisions to investigate symptoms of possible cancer.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL and PsycINFO between January 1990 and March 2021 for relevant citations. Studies examining the effect or perceptions and experiences of PCP factors on use of tests and referrals for symptomatic patients with any cancer were included. PCP factors comprised personal characteristics and attributes of physicians in clinical practice.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Critical appraisal and data extraction were undertaken independently by two authors. Due to study heterogeneity, data could not be statistically pooled. We, therefore, performed a narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

29 studies were included. Most studies were conducted in European countries. A total of 11 PCP factors were identified comprising modifiable and non-modifiable factors. Clinical judgement of symptoms as suspicious or 'alarm' prompted more investigations than non-alarm symptoms. 'Gut feeling' predicted a subsequent cancer diagnosis and was perceived to facilitate decisions to investigate non-specific symptoms as PCP experience increased. Female PCPs investigated cancer more than male PCPs. The effect of PCP age and years of experience on testing and referral decisions was inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

PCP interpretation of symptoms as higher risk facilitated testing and referral decisions for possible cancer. However, in the absence of 'alarm' symptoms or 'gut feeling', PCPs may not investigate cancer. PCPs require strategies for identifying patients with non-alarm and non-specific symptoms who need testing or referral.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD420191560515.

Esophageal Dysphagia in Children: State of the Art and Proposal for a Symptom-Based Diagnostic Approach

Pediatric esophageal dysphagia (PED) is an infrequent condition that can be determined by a large number of disorders. The etiologic diagnosis is challenging due to overlapping clinical phenotypes and to the absence of pediatric diagnostic guidelines. This review aims to summarize the most relevant causes of ED during childhood, highlight the clinical scenarios of PED presentation and discuss the indications of available diagnostic tools. Available information supports that PED should always be investigated as it can underlie life-threatening conditions (e.g., foreign body ingestion, mediastinal tumors), represent the complication of benign disorders (e.g., peptic stenosis) or constitute the manifestation of organic diseases (e.g., eosinophilic esophagitis, achalasia). Therefore, the diagnosis of functional PED should be made only after excluding mucosal, structural, or motility esophageal abnormalities. Several clinical features may contribute to the diagnosis of PED. Among the latter, we identified several clinical key elements, relevant complementary-symptoms and predisposing factors, and organized them in a multi-level, hierarchical, circle diagram able to guide the clinician through the diagnostic work-up of PED. The most appropriate investigational method(s) should be chosen based on the diagnostic hypothesis: esophagogastroduodenoscopy has highest diagnostic yield for mucosal disorders, barium swallow has greater sensitivity in detecting achalasia and structural abnormalities, chest CT/MR inform on the mediastinum, manometry is most sensitive in detecting motility disorders, while pH-MII measures gastroesophageal reflux. Further studies are needed to define the epidemiology of PED, determine the prevalence of individual underlying etiologies, and assess the diagnostic value of investigational methods as to develop a reliable diagnostic algorithm.

Functional gastrointestinal disorders. Overlap syndrome Clinical guidelines of the Russian Scientific Medical Society of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterological Scientific Society of Russia

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Cancer diagnostic tools to aid decision-making in primary care: mixed-methods systematic reviews and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Tools based on diagnostic prediction models are available to help general practitioners diagnose cancer. It is unclear whether or not tools expedite diagnosis or affect patient quality of life and/or survival.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the evidence on the validation, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and availability and use of cancer diagnostic tools in primary care.

METHODS

Two systematic reviews were conducted to examine the clinical effectiveness (review 1) and the development, validation and accuracy (review 2) of diagnostic prediction models for aiding general practitioners in cancer diagnosis. Bibliographic searches were conducted on MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) in May 2017, with updated searches conducted in November 2018. A decision-analytic model explored the tools' clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in colorectal cancer. The model compared patient outcomes and costs between strategies that included the use of the tools and those that did not, using the NHS perspective. We surveyed 4600 general practitioners in randomly selected UK practices to determine the proportions of general practices and general practitioners with access to, and using, cancer decision support tools. Association between access to these tools and practice-level cancer diagnostic indicators was explored.

RESULTS

Systematic review 1 - five studies, of different design and quality, reporting on three diagnostic tools, were included. We found no evidence that using the tools was associated with better outcomes. Systematic review 2 - 43 studies were included, reporting on prediction models, in various stages of development, for 14 cancer sites (including multiple cancers). Most studies relate to QCancer^® (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and risk assessment tools.

DECISION MODEL

In the absence of studies reporting their clinical outcomes, QCancer and risk assessment tools were evaluated against faecal immunochemical testing. A linked data approach was used, which translates diagnostic accuracy into time to diagnosis and treatment, and stage at diagnosis. Given the current lack of evidence, the model showed that the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools in colorectal cancer relies on demonstrating patient survival benefits. Sensitivity of faecal immunochemical testing and specificity of QCancer and risk assessment tools in a low-risk population were the key uncertain parameters.

SURVEY

Practitioner- and practice-level response rates were 10.3% (476/4600) and 23.3% (227/975), respectively. Cancer decision support tools were available in 83 out of 227 practices (36.6%, 95% confidence interval 30.3% to 43.1%), and were likely to be used in 38 out of 227 practices (16.7%, 95% confidence interval 12.1% to 22.2%). The mean 2-week-wait referral rate did not differ between practices that do and practices that do not have access to QCancer or risk assessment tools (mean difference of 1.8 referrals per 100,000 referrals, 95% confidence interval -6.7 to 10.3 referrals per 100,000 referrals).

LIMITATIONS

There is little good-quality evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools. Many diagnostic prediction models are limited by a lack of external validation. There are limited data on current UK practice and clinical outcomes of diagnostic strategies, and there is no evidence on the quality-of-life outcomes of diagnostic results. The survey was limited by low response rates.

CONCLUSION

The evidence base on the tools is limited. Research on how general practitioners interact with the tools may help to identify barriers to implementation and uptake, and the potential for clinical effectiveness.

FUTURE WORK

Continued model validation is recommended, especially for risk assessment tools. Assessment of the tools' impact on time to diagnosis and treatment, stage at diagnosis, and health outcomes is also recommended, as is further work to understand how tools are used in general practitioner consultations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017068373 and CRD42017068375.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Guideline interval: A new time interval in the diagnostic pathway for symptomatic cancer

BACKGROUND

A standard measure of the cancer diagnostic pathway, diagnostic interval, is the time from "first presentation of cancer" to diagnosis. Cancer presentation may be unclear in patients with multimorbidity or non-specific symptoms, signs or test results ("features"). We propose an alternative, guideline interval, with a more certain start date; namely, when the patient first meets suspected-cancer criteria for investigation or referral.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and English cancer registry data. Participants, aged ≥55 years, had diagnostic codes for oesophagogastric cancers in 1/1/12-31/12/17. Features of oesophagogastric cancer in the year before diagnosis were identified from CPRD codes for dysphagia, haematemesis, upper-abdominal mass or pain, low haemoglobin, reflux, dyspepsia, nausea, vomiting, weight loss or thrombocytosis. Diagnostic interval was the time from first feature to diagnosis; guidance interval, the time from first meeting criteria in NICE suspected-cancer guidance to diagnosis. Multimorbidity burden was quantified using Adjusted Clinical Groups®. Accelerated failure-time models explored associations between multimorbidity burden and length of both diagnostic and guideline interval.

RESULTS

There were 3,793 eligible participants (69.0 % male), mean age 74.1 years (SD 10.5). 3,097 (81.7 %) presented with ≥1 feature in the year before diagnosis, and 1,990 (52.5 %) met NICE suspected-cancer criteria. The median for both intervals was 11 days in healthy users, and rose with increasing morbidity burden. At very high multimorbidity burden, diagnostic interval was 5.47 (95%CI 3.25-9.20) times longer and guideline interval was 3.91 (2.63-5.80) times longer than for healthy users.

CONCLUSIONS

Guideline interval is proposed as a new measure of the cancer diagnostic pathway. It has a more certain start date than diagnostic interval, and is lengthened less than diagnostic interval in people with a very high multimorbidity burden. Guideline interval has potential for assessing the implementation of suspected-cancer policies.

Impact of anaemia in oesophago-gastric cancer patients undergoing curative treatment by means of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery

BACKGROUND

The present study investigated factors associated with pre-neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), and pre-operative anaemia, and examined their impact on outcomes in patients with oesophago-gastric cancer treated with curative intent.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with oesophago-gastric cancer (January 2010 to December 2015) and treated with curative intent by NAC then surgery at a tertiary centre were included. Patients were grouped by the presence of anaemia (haemoglobin <130 mg/L in males and <120 mg/L in females) and into microcytic (MCV <80 fL), normocytic (80-100 fL) and macrocytic (>100 fL) subgroups. Categorical data were analysed by chi-squared test and overall survival by univariate and multivariate Cox regression.

RESULTS

99/295 (34%) patients who received NAC were diagnosed with pre-NAC anaemia, and 157/268 (59%) of patients who subsequently underwent surgery were diagnosed with pre-operative anaemia. Normocytic anaemia was the most common, with 76 (26%) in pre-NAC and 107 (40%) in pre-operative groups. Pre-NAC anaemia was associated with increasing clinical N stage (p = 0.022), higher modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) (p = 0.006), and a higher rate of intra-operative transfusion (p = 0.030). Pre-operative anaemia was associated with pre-NAC anaemia (p = 0.004), increasing age (p = 0.026), higher pre-operative mGPS (p = 0.021), and a higher rate of intra-operative transfusion (p = 0.021). Anaemia before NAC and surgery was associated with poorer overall survival in patient following R0 resection, independent of stage (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.54, p = 0.030).

CONCLUSION

Anaemia was associated with poorer overall survival and greater requirement for intra-operative blood transfusion in oesophago-gastric cancer patients undergoing treatment with curative intent.

Electronic clinical decision support tool for assessing stomach symptoms in primary care (ECASS): a feasibility study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the feasibility of a definitive trial in primary care of electronic clinical decision support (eCDS) for possible oesophago-gastric (O-G) cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Feasibility study in 42 general practices in two regions of England, cluster randomised controlled trial design without blinding, nested qualitative and health economic evaluation.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 55 years or older, presenting to their general practitioner (GP) with symptoms associated with O-G cancer. 530 patients (mean age 68 years, 58% female) participated.

INTERVENTION

Practices randomised 1:1 to usual care (control) or to receive a previously piloted eCDS tool for suspected cancer (intervention), for use at the discretion of the GPs, supported by a theory-based implementation package and ongoing support. We conducted semistructured interviews with GPs in intervention practices. Recruitment lasted 22 months.

OUTCOMES

Patient participation rate, use of eCDS, referrals and route to diagnosis, O-G cancer diagnoses; acceptability to GPs; cost-effectiveness. Participants followed up 6 months after index encounter.

RESULTS

From control and intervention practices, we screened 3841 and 1303 patients, respectively; 1189 and 434 were eligible, 392 and 138 consented to participate. Ten patients (1.9%) had O-G cancer. eCDS was used eight times in total by five unique users. GPs experienced interoperability problems between the eCDS tool and their clinical system and also found it did not fit with their workflow. Unexpected restrictions on software installation caused major problems with implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The conduct of this study was hampered by technical limitations not evident during an earlier pilot of the eCDS tool, and by regulatory controls on software installation introduced by primary care trusts early in the study. This eCDS tool needed to integrate better with clinical workflow; even then, its use for suspected cancer may be infrequent. Any definitive trial of eCDS for cancer diagnosis should only proceed after addressing these constraints.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN125595588.

Endogenous aldehyde accumulation generates genotoxicity and exhaled biomarkers in esophageal adenocarcinoma

Volatile aldehydes are enriched in esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) patients' breath and could improve early diagnosis, however the mechanisms of their production are unknown. Here, we show that weak aldehyde detoxification characterizes EAC, which is sufficient to cause endogenous aldehyde accumulation in vitro. Two aldehyde groups are significantly enriched in EAC biopsies and adjacent tissue: (i) short-chain alkanals, and (ii) medium-chain alkanals, including decanal. The short-chain alkanals form DNA-adducts, which demonstrates genotoxicity and confirms inadequate detoxification. Metformin, a putative aldehyde scavenger, reduces this toxicity. Tissue and breath concentrations of the medium-chain alkanal decanal are correlated, and increased decanal is linked to reduced ALDH3A2 expression, TP53 deletion, and adverse clinical features. Thus, we present a model for increased exhaled aldehydes based on endogenous accumulation from reduced detoxification, which also causes therapeutically actionable genotoxicity. These results support EAC early diagnosis trials using exhaled aldehyde analysis.

Are Regulations Safe? Reflections From Developing a Digital Cancer Decision-Support Tool

PURPOSE

Informatics solutions to early diagnosis of cancer in primary care are increasingly prevalent, but it is not clear whether existing and planned standards and regulations sufficiently address patients' safety nor whether these standards are fit for purpose. We use a patient safety perspective to reflect on the development of a computerized cancer risk assessment tool embedded within a UK primary care electronic health record system.

METHODS

We developed a computerized version of the CAncer Prevention in ExetER studies risk assessment tool, in compliance with the European Union's Medical Device Regulations. The process of building this tool afforded an opportunity to reflect on clinical concerns and whether current regulations for medical devices are fit for purpose. We identified concerns for patient safety and developed nine practical recommendations to mitigate these concerns.

RESULTS

We noted that medical device regulations (1) were initially created for hardware devices rather than software, (2) offer one-shot approval rather than supporting iterative innovation and learning, (3) are biased toward loss-transfer approaches that attempt to manage the fallout of harm instead of mitigating hazards becoming harmful, and (4) are biased toward known hazards, despite unknown hazards being an expected consequence of health care as a complex adaptive system. Our nine recommendations focus on embedding less-reductionist and stronger system perspectives into regulations and standards.

CONCLUSION

Our intention is to share our experience to support research-led collaborative development of health informatics solutions in cancer. We argue that regulations in the European Union do not sufficiently address the complexity of healthcare information systems with consequences for patient safety. Future standards and regulations should continue to follow a system-based approach to risk, safety, and accident avoidance.

Reflux Symptoms - Functional and Structural Diseases: The Approach from the General Practitioner

A primary care management strategy of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) should pay attention to the epidemiology, prevalence, and distribution of reflux-like symptoms in the community and to the special characteristics of patients presenting for the first time with reflux symptoms in primary care. General practitioners (GPs) encounter daily challenges to make cost-effective differential diagnostic and therapeutic decisions, avoiding needless and costly investigation or referral. They should provide long-term effective control of symptoms and esophageal healing in a personalized, symptom-based, patient-centered, and evidence-based manner. GPs should use a practical system of triage in order to distinguish the high majority of patients with self-limiting conditions from the minority with alarm symptoms with potentially severe disorder. They should also discriminate between troublesome and nontroublesome reflux symptoms. Most GERD is uncomplicated and can be treated using management algorithms that make the best use of resources. Some strategies such as "step-down," "intermittent," or "on-demand" therapy can cost-effectively improve the long-term management and quality of life of patients with recurrent GERD. The accurate interpretation of "step-down" therapeutic strategy and a careful interpretation of proton pump inhibitor refractoriness are also essential.

Incidence, Survival and Prognostic Factors of Oesophagogastric Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Oesophagogastric cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer death worldwide due to its aggressive nature. Despite the high mortality rate, there is limited information regarding this cancer in Brunei.

AIM

To estimate the incidence and survival duration of oesophagogastric cancer patients, to identify prognostic factors of oesophagogastric cancer and associated factors for late-stage oesophagogastric cancer detection.

METHODS

A retrospective study on all oesophagogastric cancer patients registered in the population-based national cancer registry in Brunei from January 2010 to December 2018. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression survival analyses and multiple logistic regression were applied.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight oesophagogastric cancer patients' data were retrieved from the registry. The incidence was 2.75 cases per 100,000 adults per year. Median survival time was 1.18 years (95% CI: 0.77, 1.80) and the 3-year survival rate was 26.3%. Age (61-70 years) (adjusted HR = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.89; p = 0.025) and those who have undergone chemotherapy (adj. HR = 0.40; 95% CI: 0.18, 0.90; p = 0.026) have a significantly lower mortality risk. Obesity (adj. HR = 11.94; 95% CI: 1.94, 73.36; p = 0.007), and stage 4 (advanced stage) cancer (adj. HR=4.11; 95% CI: 1.97, 8.58; p< 0.001) have a significantly higher mortality risk. Females have 3-time odds (adj. OR = 3.05; 95% CI: 1.09, 9.02; p = 0.038) of presenting with stage 4 cancer. Smokers have 13-time odds (Adj. OR=12.99; 95% CI: 1.92, 262.0; p = 0.025) of presenting with stage 4 cancer.

CONCLUSION

Prognosis of oesophagogastric cancer remains poor. Addressing late detection and improve endoscopic surveillance and awareness of symptoms may help improve prognosis and mortality.

Conceptual Framework to Guide Early Diagnosis Programs for Symptomatic Cancer as Part of Global Cancer Control

Diagnosing cancer earlier can enable timely treatment and optimize outcomes. Worldwide, national cancer control plans increasingly encompass early diagnosis programs for symptomatic patients, commonly comprising awareness campaigns to encourage prompt help-seeking for possible cancer symptoms and health system policies to support prompt diagnostic assessment and access to treatment. By their nature, early diagnosis programs involve complex public health interventions aiming to address unmet health needs by acting on patient, clinical, and system factors. However, there is uncertainty regarding how to optimize the design and evaluation of such interventions. We propose that decisions about early diagnosis programs should consider four interrelated components: first, the conduct of a needs assessment (based on cancer-site-specific statistics) to identify the cancers that may benefit most from early diagnosis in the target population; second, the consideration of symptom epidemiology to inform prioritization within an intervention; third, the identification of factors influencing prompt help-seeking at individual and system level to support the design and evaluation of interventions; and finally, the evaluation of factors influencing the health systems' capacity to promptly assess patients. This conceptual framework can be used by public health researchers and policy makers to identify the greatest evidence gaps and guide the design and evaluation of local early diagnosis programs as part of broader cancer control strategies.

Update on Indigestion

Dyspepsia affects a large percentage of the general population and can lead to lost work productivity and reduced quality of life. Patients with dyspepsia younger than 60 should not routinely undergo endoscopy but instead should pursue Helicobacter pylori test-and-treat approach. For patients 60 and older, endoscopy should be performed. Patients without any identifiable cause for their symptoms are diagnosed with functional dyspepsia. Guideline-based treatment includes H pylori eradication and proton pump inhibitor use. If acid suppression is not adequate, treatment with a tricyclic antidepressant followed by a prokinetic agent and psychological therapy are considered. Complementary therapies are not recommended due to limited evidence.

Development, validation and effectiveness of diagnostic prediction tools for colorectal cancer in primary care: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Tools based on diagnostic prediction models are available to help general practitioners (GP) diagnose colorectal cancer. It is unclear how well they perform and whether they lead to increased or quicker diagnoses and ultimately impact on patient quality of life and/or survival. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate the development, validation, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness, of cancer diagnostic tools for colorectal cancer in primary care.

METHODS

Electronic databases including Medline and Web of Science were searched in May 2017 (updated October 2019). Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full-texts. Studies were included if they reported the development, validation or accuracy of a prediction model, or assessed the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools based on prediction models to aid GP decision-making for symptomatic patients presenting with features potentially indicative of colorectal cancer. Data extraction and risk of bias were completed by one reviewer and checked by a second. A narrative synthesis was conducted.

RESULTS

Eleven thousand one hundred thirteen records were screened and 23 studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-studies reported on the development, validation and/or accuracy of 13 prediction models: eight for colorectal cancer, five for cancer areas/types that include colorectal cancer. The Qcancer models were generally the best performing. Three impact studies met the inclusion criteria. Two (an RCT and a pre-post study) assessed tools based on the RAT prediction model. The third study looked at the impact of GP practices having access to RAT or Qcancer. Although the pre-post study reported a positive impact of the tools on outcomes, the results of the RCT and cross-sectional survey found no evidence that use of, or access to, the tools was associated with better outcomes. No study evaluated cost effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Many prediction models have been developed but none have been fully validated. Evidence demonstrating improved patient outcome of introducing the tools is the main deficiency and is essential given the imperfect classification achieved by all tools. This need is emphasised by the equivocal results of the small number of impact studies done so far.

Microcytosis as a risk marker of cancer in primary care: a cohort study using electronic patient records

BACKGROUND

Microcytosis (smaller than normal red blood cells) has previously been identified as a possible early risk marker for some cancers. However, the role of microcytosis across all cancers has not been fully investigated.

AIM

To examine cancer incidence in a cohort of patients with microcytosis, with and without accompanying anaemia.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cohort study of patients aged ≥40 years using UK primary care electronic patient records.

METHOD

The 1-year cancer incidence was compared between cohorts of patients with a mean red cell volume of <85 femtolitres (fL) (low) or 85-101 fL (normal). Further analyses examined sex, age group, cancer site, and haemoglobin values.

RESULTS

Of 12 289 patients with microcytosis, 497 had a new cancer diagnosis within 1 year (4.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7 to 4.4), compared with 1465 of 73 150 without microcytosis (2.0%, CI = 1.9 to 2.1). In males, 298 out of 4800 with microcytosis were diagnosed with cancer (6.2%, CI = 5.5 to 6.9), compared with 940 out of 34 653 without (2.7%, CI = 2.5 to 2.9). In females with microcytosis, 199 out of 7489 were diagnosed with cancer (2.7%, CI = 2.3 to 3.1), compared with 525 out of 38 497 without (1.4%, CI = 1.3 to 1.5). In patients with microcytosis but normal haemoglobin, 86 out of 2637 males (3.3%, CI = 2.6 to 4.0) and 101 out of 5055 females (2.0%, CI = 1.6 to 2.4) were diagnosed with cancer.

CONCLUSION

Microcytosis is a predictor of underlying cancer even if haemoglobin is normal. Although a benign explanation is more likely, clinicians in primary care should consider simple testing for cancer on encountering unexplained microcytosis, particularly in males.

Patient symptom experience prior to a diagnosis of oesophageal or gastric cancer: a multi-methods study

Background

Late stage diagnosis of oesophageal and gastric cancer is common, which limits treatment options and contributes to poor survival.

Aim

To explore patients' understanding, experience and presentation of symptoms before a diagnosis of oesophageal or gastric cancer.

Design & setting

Between May 2016 and October 2017, all patients newly diagnosed with oesophageal or gastric cancer were identified at weekly multidisciplinary team meetings at two large hospitals in England. A total of 321 patients were invited to participate in a survey and secondary care medical record review; 127 (40%) participants responded (102 patients had oesophageal cancer and 25 had gastric cancer). Of these, 26 participated in an additional face-to-face interview.

Method

Survey and medical record data were analysed descriptively. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis, informed by the Model of Pathways to Treatment.

Results

Participants experienced multiple symptoms before diagnosis. The most common symptom associated with oesophageal cancer was dysphagia (n = 66, 65%); for gastric cancer, fatigue or tiredness (n = 20, 80%) was the most common symptom. Understanding of heartburn, reflux and indigestion, and associated symptoms differed between participants and often contrasted with clinical perspectives. Bodily changes attributed to personal and/or lifestyle factors were self-managed, with presentation to primary care prompted when symptoms persisted, worsened, or impacted daily life, or were notably severe or unusual. Participants rarely presented all symptoms at the initial consultation.

Conclusion

The patient interval may be lengthened by misinterpretation of key terms, such as heartburn, or misattribution or non-recognition of important bodily changes. Clearly defined symptom awareness messages may encourage earlier help-seeking, while eliciting symptom experience and meanings in primary care consultations could prompt earlier referral and diagnosis.

Development of a clinical score to distinguish malignant from benign esophageal disease in an undiagnosed patient population referred to an esophageal diagnostic assessment program

Background

Esophageal cancer is associated with poor prognosis. Diagnosis is often delayed, resulting in presentation with advanced disease. We developed a clinical score to predict the risk of a malignant diagnosis in symptomatic patients prior to any diagnostic tests.

Methods

We analyzed data from patients referred to a regional esophageal diagnostic assessment program between May 2013 and August 2016. Logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of malignancy based on patient characteristics and symptoms. Predicted probabilities were used to develop a score from 0 to 10 which was weighted according to beta coefficients for predictors in the model. Score accuracy was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Patients were classified into low (0–2 points), medium (3–6 points), and high (7–10 points) risk groups based on their scores. Pathologic tissue diagnosis was used to assess the effectiveness of the developed score in predicting the risk of malignancy in each group.

Results

Of 530 patients, 363 (68%) were diagnosed with malignancy. Factors predictive of malignancy included male sex, family history of cancer and esophageal cancer, fatigue, chest/throat/back pain, melena and weight loss. These factors were allocated 1–2 points each for a total of 10 points. Low-risk patients had 70% lower chance of malignancy (RR =0.28, 95% CI: 0.21–0.38), medium-risk had 50% higher chance of malignancy (RR =1.5, 95% CI: 1.26–1.77), and high-risk patients were 8 times more likely to be diagnosed with malignancy (RR =8.2, 95% CI: 2.60–25.86). The area under the ROC curve for malignancy was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.77–0.87).

Conclusions

A simple score using patient characteristics and symptoms reliably distinguished malignant from benign diagnoses in a population of patients with upper gastrointestinal symptoms. This score might be useful in expediting investigations, referrals and eventual diagnosis of malignancy.

Validation of self-reported help-seeking, and measurement of the patient interval, for cancer symptoms: an observational study to inform methodological challenges in symptomatic presentation research

BACKGROUND

To improve earlier presentation with potential symptoms of cancer, accurate data are needed on how people respond to these symptoms. It is currently unclear how self-reported medical help-seeking for symptoms associated with cancer by people from the community correspond to what is recorded in their general practice records, or how well the patient interval (time from symptom onset to first presentation to a health-professional) can be estimated from patient records.

METHOD

Data from two studies that reviewed general practice electronic records of residents in Scotland, (i) the 'Useful Study': respondents to a general population survey who reported experiencing symptoms potentially associated with one of four common cancers (breast, colorectal, lung and upper gastro-intestinal) and (ii) the 'Detect Cancer Early' programme: cancer patients with one of the same four cancers. Survey respondents' self-reported help-seeking (yes/no) was corroborated; Cohen's Kappa assessed level of agreement. Combined data on the patient interval were evaluated using descriptive analysis.

RESULTS

'Useful Study' respondents' self-report of help-seeking showed exact correspondence with general practice electronic records in 72% of cases (n = 136, kappa 0.453, moderate agreement). Between both studies, 1269 patient records from 35 general practices were reviewed. The patient interval could not be determined in 44% (n = 809) of symptoms presented by these individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient self-report of help-seeking for symptoms potentially associated with cancer offer a reasonably accurate method to research responses to these symptoms. Incomplete patient interval data suggest routine general practice records are unreliable for measuring this important part of the patient's symptom journey.

Identification of upper gastrointestinal malignancy in patients with uncomplicated dyspepsia referred under the two-week-wait cancer pathway: a single-centre, 10-year experience

INTRODUCTION

In the United Kingdom, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 2015 guidance recommend that for suspected gastric or oesophageal cancer, general practitioners consider a non-urgent, direct-access endoscopy in patients over 55 years with only uncomplicated treatment-resistant dyspepsia. In practice, patients are referred under the urgent 2-week-wait cancer pathway.

METHODS

We compared the frequency of gastric or oesophageal carcinoma in patients referred to our centre on the 2-week-wait pathway with uncomplicated dyspepsia to those who have a combination of additional alarm symptoms. The four most common indications for endoscopy referral on the 2-week-wait pathway and all combinations of those indications were examined: Dyspepsia ('ulcer-like', 'non-ulcer-like' or 'reflux-like' dyspepsia), anaemia, weight loss or dysphagia.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, 9012 two-week-wait gastroscopies were performed, and a tumour was identified in 256 patients (2.84%). One thousand and three hundred six gastroscopies performed for uncomplicated dyspepsia and only 6 patients (0.46%) had a tumour. Therefore, uncomplicated dyspepsia alone had a poor positive predictive value of detecting gastric or oesophageal cancer. Our findings suggest dyspepsia had no significant cumulative effect on the number of patients with anaemia or weight loss found to have a lesion at endoscopy but indeed significantly decreased the likelihood of finding a tumour in those with dysphagia.

CONCLUSION

Dyspepsia as a parameter to investigate gastric or oesophageal cancer contributes significantly to the growth in number of 2-week-wait referrals at a time when endoscopy units battle to meet demand. Our data show patients with uncomplicated dyspepsia rarely have gastric or oesophageal cancer and should not undergo endoscopies under the urgent 2-week-wait pathway.

Delays in referral from primary care are associated with a worse survival in patients with esophagogastric cancer

NICE referral guidelines for suspected cancer were introduced to improve prognosis by reducing referral delays. However, over 20% of patients with esophagogastric cancer experience three or more consultations before referral. In this retrospective cohort study, we hypothesize that such a delay is associated with a worse survival compared with patients referred earlier. By utilizing Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a national primary care linked database, the first presentation, referral date, a number of consultations before referral and stage for esophagogastric cancer patients were determined. The risk of a referral after one or two consultations compared with three or more consultations was calculated for age and the presence of symptom fulfilling the NICE criteria. The risk of death according to the number of consultations before referral was determined, while accounting for stage and surgical management. 1307 patients were included. Patients referred after one (HR 0.80 95% CI 0.68-0.93 p = 0.005) or two consultations (HR 0.81 95% CI 0.67-0.98 p = 0.034) demonstrated significantly improved prognosis compared with those referred later. The risk of death was also lower for patients who underwent a resection, were younger or had an earlier stage at diagnosis. Those presenting with a symptom fulfilling the NICE criteria (OR 0.27 95% CI 0.21-0.35 p < 0.0001) were more likely to be referred earlier. This is the first study to demonstrate an association between a delay in referral and worse prognosis in esophagogastric patients. These findings should prompt further research to reduce primary care delays.

The usefulness of symptoms alone or combined for general practitioners in considering the diagnosis of a brain tumour: a case-control study using the clinical practice research database (CPRD) (2000-2014)

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the utility of different symptoms, alone or combined, presented to primary care for an adult brain tumour diagnosis.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Matched case-control study, using the data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2014) from primary care consultations in the UK.

METHOD

All presentations within 6 months of the index diagnosis date (cases) or equivalent (controls) were coded into 32 symptom groups. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPVs) and positive likelihood ratios were calculated for symptoms and combinations of symptoms with headache and cognitive features. Diagnostic odds ratios were calculated using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for age group, sex and Charlson comorbidity. Stratified analyses were performed for age group, sex and whether the tumour was of primary or secondary origin.

RESULTS

We included 8,184 cases and 28,110 controls. Seizure had the highest PPV of 1.6% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.7%) followed by weakness 1.5% (1.3 to 1.7) and confusion 1.4% (1.3 to 1.5). Combining headache with other symptoms increased the PPV. For example, headache plus combined cognitive symptoms PPV 7.2% (6.0 to 8.6); plus weakness 4.4% (3.2 to 6.2), compared with headache alone PPV 0.1%. The diagnostic ORs were generally larger for patients <70 years; this was most marked for confusion, seizure and visual symptoms.

CONCLUSION

We found seizure, weakness and confusion had relatively higher predictive values than many other symptoms. Headache on its own was a weak predictor but this was enhanced when combined with other symptoms especially in younger patients. Clinicians need to actively search for other neurological symptoms such as cognitive problems.

Availability and use of cancer decision-support tools: a cross-sectional survey of UK primary care

Background

Decision-support tools quantify the risk of undiagnosed cancer in symptomatic patients, and may help GPs when making referrals.

Aim

To quantify the availability and use of cancer decision-support tools (QCancer^® and risk assessment tools) and to explore the association between tool availability and 2-week-wait (2WW) referrals for suspected cancer.

Design and setting

A cross-sectional postal survey in UK primary care.

Methods

Out of 975 UK randomly selected general practices, 4600 GPs and registrars were invited to participate. Outcome measures included the proportions of UK general practices where cancer decision-support tools are available and at least one GP uses the tool. Weighted least-squares linear regression with robust errors tested the association between tool availability and number of 2WW referrals, adjusting for practice size, sex, age, and Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Results

In total, 476 GPs in 227 practices responded (response rates: practitioner, 10.3%; practice, 23.3%). At the practice level, 83/227 (36.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 30.3 to 43.1) practices had at least one GP or registrar with access to cancer decision-support tools. Tools were available and likely to be used in 38/227 (16.7%, 95% CI = 12.1 to 22.2) practices. In subgroup analyses of 172 English practices, there was no difference in mean 2WW referral rate between practices with tools and those without (mean adjusted difference in referrals per 100 000: 3.1, 95% CI = −5.5 to 11.7).

Conclusion

This is the first survey of cancer decision-support tool availability and use. It suggests that the tools are an underused resource in the UK. Given the cost of cancer investigation, a randomised controlled trial of such clinical decision-support aids would be appropriate.

Recognising laryngeal cancer in primary care: a large case-control study using electronic records

BACKGROUND

Over 1700 people are diagnosed with laryngeal cancer annually in England. Current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines on referral for suspected laryngeal cancer were based on clinical consensus, in the absence of primary care studies.

AIM

To identify and quantify the primary care features of laryngeal cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Matched case-control study of patients aged ≥40 years using data from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

METHOD

Clinical features of laryngeal cancer with which patients had presented to their GP in the year before diagnosis were identified and their association with cancer was assessed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for each clinical feature were calculated for the consulting population aged >60 years.

RESULTS

In total, 806 patients diagnosed with laryngeal cancer between 2000 and 2009 were studied, together with 3559 age-, sex-, and practice-matched controls. Ten features were significantly associated with laryngeal cancer: hoarseness odds ratio [OR] 904 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 277 to 2945); sore throat, first attendance OR 6.2 (95% CI = 3.7 to 10); sore throat, re-attendance OR 7.7 (95% CI = 2.6 to 23); dysphagia OR 6.5 (95% CI = 2.7 to 16); otalgia OR 5.0 (95% CI = 1.9 to 13); dyspnoea, re-attendance OR 4.7 (95% CI = 1.9 to 12); mouth symptoms OR 4.7 (95% CI = 1.8 to 12); recurrent chest infection OR 4.5 (95% CI = 2.4 to 8.5); insomnia OR 2.7 (95% CI = 1.3 to 5.6); and raised inflammatory markers OR 2.5 (95% CI = 1.5 to 4.1). All P-values were <0.01. Hoarseness had the highest individual PPV of 2.7%. Symptom combinations currently not included in NICE guidance were sore throat plus either dysphagia, dyspnoea, or otalgia, for which PPVs were >5%.

CONCLUSION

These results expand current NICE guidance by identifying new symptom combinations that are associated with laryngeal cancer; they may help GPs to select more appropriate patients for referral.

Predictors of serious findings on bi-directional endoscopy in young patients with anemia and GI symptoms

Background and Objective:

Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) has been cited as the most common cause of anemia globally. Gastrointestinal (GI) lesions are amongst the common cause of IDA. Endoscopic evaluation is the most effective way to investigate the IDA. The aim of this study was to show the association of alarming GI symptoms with abnormal endoscopic findings and to cut off the burden and cost of unnecessary endoscopies.

Methods:

This is cross sectional study of anemic patient who underwent upper and lower GI endoscopies in Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi between July-December 2016.

Results:

Total 243 patients were identified after excluding ineligible patients. The mean age of subjects was 31.9 ± 6.1 years with a slight over-representation of females (57.4%). 149 (61.31%) patients underwent only upper GI endoscopic evaluation, and 83 (34.15%) patients on whom bi-directional endoscopy was performed (upper and lower). The remaining 11 (4.52%) patients underwent colonoscopy only. 16 (6.6%) subjects had negative findings on evaluation, while gastritis and serious findings were observed in 175 (72.0%) and 52 (21.4%) patients respectively. We found that patients with alarm features such as dysphagia (aOR: 2.07, 95%CI: 0.12-34.1), altered bowel habits (aOR: 1.64, 95%CI: 0.44-6.09) and weight loss (aOR: 1.25 95%CI: 0.54-2.85) demonstrated higher odds of serious findings on endoscopic evaluation as compared to the reference category, however they were not independently associated.

Conclusion:

Most of our patients had non-malignant pathologies, while alarm features were not found to be useful predictors of serious findings.

The nature and frequency of abdominal symptoms in cancer patients and their associations with time to help-seeking: evidence from a national audit of cancer diagnosis

Background

Raising awareness of possible cancer symptoms is important for timely help-seeking; recent campaigns have focused on symptom groups (such as abdominal symptoms) rather than individual alarm symptoms associated with particular cancer sites. The evidence base supporting such initiatives is still emerging however; understanding the frequency and nature of presenting abdominal symptoms among cancer patients could inform the design and evaluation of public health awareness campaigns.

Methods

We examined eight presenting abdominal symptoms (abdominal pain, change in bowel habit, bloating/distension, dyspepsia, rectal bleeding, dysphagia, reflux and nausea/vomiting) among 15 956 patients subsequently diagnosed with cancer in England. We investigated the cancer site case-mix and variation in the patient interval (symptom-onset-to-presentation) by abdominal symptom.

Results

Almost a quarter (23%) of cancer patients presented with abdominal symptoms before being diagnosed with one of 27 common and rarer cancers. The patient interval varied substantially by abdominal symptom: median (IQR) intervals ranged from 7 (0-28) days for abdominal pain to 30 (4-73) days for dysphagia. This variation persisted after adjusting for age, sex and ethnicity (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Abdominal symptoms are common at presentation among cancer patients, while time to presentation varies by symptom. The need for awareness campaigns may be greater for symptoms associated with longer intervals to help-seeking.

Endoscopic Screening in Asian Countries Is Associated With Reduced Gastric Cancer Mortality: A Meta-analysis and Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is not clear how endoscopic screening for gastric cancer affects incidence or mortality. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between endoscopic screening for gastric cancer and mortality and incidence.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE for published cohort and case-control studies of adults without gastric cancer who underwent endoscopic screening at least once that included a comparator and reported outcomes of mortality or incidence through March 8, 2018. Two investigators independently reviewed the included studies and extracted relevant data. The effect estimate of interest was the relative risk (RR). We used a random effects model to combine RRs and 95% confidence intervals (Cis).

RESULTS

Our final analysis included 6 cohort studies and 4 nested case-control studies comprising 342,013 individuals, all from Asia. The combined result (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.49-0.73) indicated that endoscopic screening was associated with a 40% RR reduction in gastric cancer mortality. We did not observe an association between endoscopic screening and incidence (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.93-1.40). Subgroup analysis showed significant reductions in gastric cancer mortality after endoscopic screening compared with no screening (RR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48-0.70) or radiographic screening (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.12-0.91). However, endoscopic screening did not significantly reduce mortality compared with expected deaths (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.38-1.16).

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found that endoscopic screening may reduce the risk of death from gastric cancer and not affect incidence in Asian countries. Population-based prospective cohort studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Selection of men for investigation of possible testicular cancer in primary care: a large case-control study using electronic patient records

BACKGROUND

Testicular cancer incidence has risen over the last two decades and is expected to continue to rise. There are no primary care studies on the clinical features of testicular cancer, with recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance based solely upon clinical consensus.

AIM

To identify clinical features of testicular cancer and to quantify their risk in primary care patients, with the aim of improving the selection of patients for investigation.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A matched case-control study in males aged ≥17 years, using Clinical Practice Research Datalink records.

METHOD

Putative clinical features of testicular cancer were identified and analysed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for those aged <50 years.

RESULTS

In all, 1398 cases were available, diagnosed between 2000 and 2012, with 4956 age-, sex-, and practice-matched controls. Nine features were independently associated with testicular cancer, the top three being testicular swelling (odds ratio [OR] 280, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 110 to 690), testicular lump (OR 270, 95% CI = 100 to 740), and scrotal swelling (OR 170, 95% CI = 35 to 800). The highest PPV for 17-49-year-olds was testicular lump, at 2.5% (95% CI = 1.1 to 5.6). Combining testicular lump with testicular swelling or testicular pain produced PPVs of 17% and 10%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Testicular enlargement carries a risk of cancer of 2.5% - close to the current 3% threshold in UK referral guidance. Contrary to traditional teaching, painful testicular enlargement may signify cancer. Some initial hydrocele diagnoses appear to be wrong, with missed cancers, suggesting an ultrasound may be useful when a hydrocele diagnosis is uncertain. These results support the existing NICE guidelines, and help to characterise when an ultrasound should be considered in symptomatic men.

Oesophageal causes of dysphagia localised only to the pharynx: Implications for the suspected head and neck cancer pathway

OBJECTIVES

Dysphagia is a presenting symptom of both pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers. The referral pathway choice is determined by whether it is thought to be oropharyngeal or oesophageal, and this is in turn influenced by whether dysphagia is perceived to be above or below the suprasternal notch. We studied the concordance between the presence of pharynx-localised dysphagia (PLD) and the location of the underlying disease processes.

DESIGN

A subset analysis of the Dysphagia Hotline Cohort, collected between 2004 and 2015, of patients with PLD and a structural diagnosis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Information about patient demography and presenting symptoms were recorded. The incisor-to-pathology distance, and the nature of the pathology, were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of malignancy.

RESULTS

The study included 177 patients. There were 92 males, and mean age at presentation was 74 years. The commonest benign pathologies were cricopharyngeal dysfunction with or without pharyngeal pouch (n = 67), peptic stricture (n = 44) and Schatzki's ring (n = 11). There were 49 cases of cancer, including one hypopharyngeal cancer, one cervical oesophageal cancer, 28 cancers of the upper/mid-thoracic oesophagus, 15 cancers of the lower thoracic oesophagus and 4 cardio-oesophageal cancers. In 105 (59%) patients, PLD was caused by oesophageal disease. Independent predictors of malignancy were weight-change (loss >2.7 kg), a short history (<12 weeks) and presence of odynophagia. Nineteen (39%) of oesophageal cancers that presented with dysphagia that was localised only to the pharynx would have been beyond the reach of rigid oesophagoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharynx-localised dysphagia is more likely to be a referred symptom of structural oesophageal disease, including cancer, than a primary symptom of structural pharyngeal disease. Absence of additional alarm symptoms such as a short history, weight-loss, and odynophagia, do not adequately exclude the possibility of oesophageal cancer. When the differential diagnosis of PLD includes malignancy, cancer should be presumed to be arising from the oesophagus or the cardio-oesophageal region until proven otherwise. This requires direct visualisation of the mucosal surfaces of the oesophagus and the cardio-oesophageal region, using either transoral or transnasal flexible endoscopy, irrespective of whether the initial assessment occurs within head and neck or upper gastrointestinal suspected cancer pathways.

Weight loss as a predictor of cancer in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Weight loss is a non-specific cancer symptom for which there are no clinical guidelines about investigation in primary care.

AIM

To summarise the available evidence on weight loss as a clinical feature of cancer in patients presenting to primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A diagnostic test accuracy review and meta-analysis.

METHOD

Studies reporting 2 × 2 diagnostic accuracy data for weight loss (index test) in adults presenting to primary care and a subsequent diagnosis of cancer (reference standard) were included. QUADAS-2 was used to assess study quality. Sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios, and positive predictive values were calculated, and a bivariate meta-analysis performed.

RESULTS

A total of 25 studies were included, with 23 (92%) using primary care records. Of these, 20 (80%) defined weight loss as a physician's coding of the symptom; the remainder collected data directly. One defined unexplained weight loss using objective measurements. Positive associations between weight loss and cancer were found for 10 cancer sites: prostate, colorectal, lung, gastro-oesophageal, pancreatic, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, ovarian, myeloma, renal tract, and biliary tree. Sensitivity ranged from 2% to 47%, and specificity from 92% to 99%, across cancer sites. The positive predictive value for cancer in male and female patients with weight loss for all age groups ≥60 years exceeded the 3% risk threshold that current UK guidance proposes for further investigation.

CONCLUSION

A primary care clinician's decision to code for weight loss is highly predictive of cancer. For such patients, urgent referral pathways are justified to investigate for cancer across multiple sites.

Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Assessment of Uninvestigated Esophageal Dysphagia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Our aim is to review the literature and provide guidelines for the assessment of uninvestigated dysphagia.

METHODS

A systematic literature search identified studies on dysphagia. The quality of evidence and strength of recommendations were rated according to the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Statements were discussed and revised via small group meetings, teleconferences, and a web-based platform until consensus was reached by the full group.

RESULTS

The consensus includes 13 statements focused on the role of strategies for the assessment of esophageal dysphagia. In patients presenting with dysphagia, oropharyngeal dysphagia should be identified promptly because of the risk of aspiration. For patients with esophageal dysphagia, history can be used to help differentiate structural from motility disorders and to elicit alarm features. An empiric trial of proton pump inhibitor therapy should be limited to four weeks in patients with esophageal dysphagia who have reflux symptoms and no additional alarm features. For patients with persistent dysphagia, endoscopy, including esophageal biopsy, was recommended over barium esophagram for the assessment of structural and mucosal esophageal disease. Barium esophagram may be useful when the availability of endoscopy is limited. Esophageal manometry was recommended for diagnosis of esophageal motility disorders, and high-resolution was recommended over conventional manometry.

CONCLUSIONS

Once oropharyngeal dysphagia is ruled out, patients with symptoms of esophageal dysphagia should be assessed by history and physical examination, followed by endoscopy to identify structural and inflammatory lesions. If these are ruled out, then manometry is recommended for the diagnosis of esophageal dysmotility.

Clinical relevance of thrombocytosis in primary care: a prospective cohort study of cancer incidence using English electronic medical records and cancer registry data. Br J Gen Pract. 2017;67:e405-e413. [PMID: 28533199 PMCID: PMC5442956 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp17x691109]

BACKGROUND

Thrombocytosis (raised platelet count) is an emerging risk marker of cancer, but the association has not been fully explored in a primary care context.

AIM

To examine the incidence of cancer in a cohort of patients with thrombocytosis, to determine how clinically useful this risk marker could be in predicting an underlying malignancy.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A prospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 2000 to 2013.

METHOD

The 1-year incidence of cancer was compared between two cohorts: 40 000 patients aged ≥40 years with a platelet count of >400 × 10⁹/L (thrombocytosis) and 10 000 matched patients with a normal platelet count. Sub-analyses examined the risk with change in platelet count, sex, age, and different cancer sites.

RESULTS

A total of 1098 out of 9435 males with thrombocytosis were diagnosed with cancer (11.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 11.0 to 12.3), compared with 106 of 2599 males without thrombocytosis (4.1%; 95% CI = 3.4 to 4.9). A total of 1355 out of 21 826 females with thrombocytosis developed cancer (6.2%; 95% CI = 5.9 to 6.5), compared with 119 of 5370 females without (2.2%; 95% CI = 1.8 to 2.6). The risk of cancer increased to 18.1% (95% CI = 15.9 to 20.5) for males and 10.1% (95% CI = 9.0 to 11.3) for females, when a second raised platelet count was recorded within 6 months. Lung and colorectal cancer were more commonly diagnosed with thrombocytosis. One-third of patients with thrombocytosis and lung or colorectal cancer had no other symptoms indicative of malignancy.

CONCLUSION

Thrombocytosis is a risk marker of cancer in adults; 11.6% and 6.2% cancer incidence in males and females, respectively, is worthy of further investigation for underlying malignancy. These figures well exceed the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-mandated risk threshold of 3% risk to warrant referral for suspected cancer.

Reimagining the diagnostic pathway for gastrointestinal cancer

A crisis is looming for the diagnosis of gastrointestinal cancers, one grounded only partly in the steady increase in their overall incidence. Public demand for diagnostic tests to be undertaken early and at lower levels of risk is reflected in early diagnosis being a widely held policy objective for reasons of both clinical outcome and patient experience. In the UK, urgent referrals for suspected lower gastrointestinal cancer have increased by 78% in the past 6 years, with parallel increases in endoscopy and imaging activity. Such growth in demand is unsustainable with current models of care. If gastrointestinal cancer diagnosis is to be affordable, the roles of professionals and their interactions with each other will need to be reframed while retaining public confidence in the process. In this Perspective, we consider how the relationship between medical specialists and generalists could be redefined to make better use of the skills of each while delivering optimal clinical outcomes and a good patient experience.

Symptom Signatures and Diagnostic Timeliness in Cancer Patients: A Review of Current Evidence

Early diagnosis is an important aspect of contemporary cancer prevention and control strategies, as the majority of patients are diagnosed following symptomatic presentation. The nature of presenting symptoms can critically influence the length of the diagnostic intervals from symptom onset to presentation (the patient interval), and from first presentation to specialist referral (the primary care interval). Understanding which symptoms are associated with longer diagnostic intervals to help the targeting of early diagnosis initiatives is an area of emerging research. In this Review, we consider the methodological challenges in studying the presenting symptoms and intervals to diagnosis of cancer patients, and summarize current evidence on presenting symptoms associated with a range of common and rarer cancer sites. We propose a taxonomy of cancer sites considering their symptom signature and the predictive value of common presenting symptoms. Finally, we consider evidence on associations between symptomatic presentations and intervals to diagnosis before discussing implications for the design, implementation, and evaluation of public health or health system interventions to achieve the earlier detection of cancer.

Weight loss as a predictor of cancer and serious disease in primary care: an ISAC-approved CPRD protocol for a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected primary care data from the UK

BACKGROUND

Unexpected weight loss is a symptom of serious disease in primary care, for example between 1 in 200 and 1 in 30 patients with unexpected weight loss go on to develop cancer. However, it remains unclear how and when general practitioners (GPs) should investigate unexpected weight loss. Without clarification, GPs may wait too long before referring (choosing to watch and wait and potentially missing a diagnosis) or not long enough (overburdening hospital services and exposing patients to the risks of investigation). The overall aim of this study is to provide the evidence necessary to allow GPs to more effectively manage patients with unexpected weight loss.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis of UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data to: (1) describe how often in UK primary care the symptom of reported weight loss is coded, when weight is measured, and how GPs respond to a patient attending with unexpected weight loss; (2) identify the predictive value of recorded weight loss for cancer and serious disease in primary care, using cumulative incidence plots to compare outcomes between subgroups and Cox regression to explore and adjust for covariates. Preliminary work in CPRD estimates that weight loss as a symptom is recorded for approximately 148,000 eligible patients > 18 years and is distributed evenly across decades of age, providing adequate statistical power and precision in relation to cancer overall and common cancers individually. Further stratification by cancer stage will be attempted but may not be possible as not all practices within CPRD are eligible for cancer registry linkage, and staging information is often incomplete. The feasibility of using multiple imputation to address missing covariate values will be explored.

DISCUSSION

This will be the largest reported retrospective cohort of primary care patients with weight measurements and unexpected weight loss codes used to understand the association between weight measurement, unexpected weight loss, and serious disease including cancer. Our findings will directly inform international guidelines for the management of unexpected weight loss in primary care populations.

The National Oesophagogastric Cancer Awareness Campaign: a locality outcome analysis from County Durham

INTRODUCTION

Oesophageal and gastric cancer is common. Despite advances in investigation and treatment, the outcomes from these cancers remain poor. As part of the Be Clear On Cancer Campaign, the Department of Health runs the National Oesophagogastric Cancer Campaign each year, with key messages of (1) 'Having heartburn most days, for 3 weeks or more could be a sign of cancer' and (2) 'if food is sticking when you swallow, tell your doctor'.

METHODS

We evaluated the effect of the National Oesophagogastric Cancer Campaign in our locality.

RESULTS

Reviewing new referrals from primary care for upper gastrointestinal symptoms during the campaign period, and a period thereafter, we found that there was no significant impact of the campaign in the diagnosis of oesophagogastric cancers. Furthermore, it increased routine waiting times for elective gastroscopies in our endoscopy units.

CONCLUSION

We believe that alternative strategies need to be considered for earlier detection of oesophagogastric cancer.

ACG and CAG Clinical Guideline: Management of Dyspepsia

We have updated both the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) and the Canadian Association of Gastroenterology (CAG) guidelines on dyspepsia in a joint ACG/CAG dyspepsia guideline. We suggest that patients ≥60 years of age presenting with dyspepsia are investigated with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy to exclude organic pathology. This is a conditional recommendation and patients at higher risk of malignancy (such as spending their childhood in a high risk gastric cancer country or having a positive family history) could be offered an endoscopy at a younger age. Alarm features should not automatically precipitate endoscopy in younger patients but this should be considered on a case-by-case basis. We recommend patients <60 years of age have a non-invasive test Helicobacter pylori and treatment if positive. Those that are negative or do not respond to this approach should be given a trial of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy. If these are ineffective tricyclic antidepressants (TCA) or prokinetic therapies can be tried. Patients that have an endoscopy where no pathology is found are defined as having functional dyspepsia (FD). H. pylori eradication should be offered in these patients if they are infected. We recommend PPI, TCA and prokinetic therapy (in that order) in those that fail therapy or are H. pylori negative. We do not recommend routine upper gastrointestinal (GI) motility testing but it may be useful in selected patients.

Symptoms of adult chronic and acute leukaemia before diagnosis: large primary care case-control studies using electronic records

BACKGROUND

Leukaemia is the eleventh commonest UK cancer. The four main subtypes have different clinical profiles, particularly between chronic and acute types.

AIM

To identify the symptom profiles of chronic and acute leukaemia in adults in primary care.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Matched case-control studies using Clinical Practice Research Datalink records.

METHOD

Putative symptoms of leukaemia were identified in the year before diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used for analysis, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated to estimate risk.

RESULTS

Of cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2009, 4655 were aged ≥40 years (2877 chronic leukaemia (CL), 937 acute leukaemia (AL), 841 unreported subtype). Ten symptoms were independently associated with CL, the three strongest being: lymphadenopathy (odds ratio [OR] 22, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 13 to 36), weight loss (OR 3.0, 95% CI = 2.1 to 4.2), and bruising (OR 2.3, 95% CI = 1.6 to 3.2). Thirteen symptoms were independently associated with AL, the three strongest being: nosebleeds and/or bleeding gums (OR 5.7, 95% CI = 3.1 to 10), fever (OR 5.3, 95% CI = 2.7 to 10), and fatigue (OR 4.4, 95% CI = 3.3 to 6.0). No individual symptom or combination of symptoms had a PPV >1%.

CONCLUSION

The symptom profiles of CL and AL have both overlapping and distinct features. This presents a dichotomy for GPs: diagnosis, by performing a full blood count, is easy; however, the symptoms of leukaemia are non-specific and of relatively low risk. This explains why many leukaemia diagnoses are unexpected findings.