A modified Glasgow Blatchford Score improves risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleed: a prospective comparison of scoring systems

Shock Index as a Predictor of Mortality and Hospital Admission in Prehospital Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the Shock Index (SI) as a predictive tool for triage of gastrointestinal bleeding (GI) in the prehospital setting, assessing its correlation with mortality, admission rates, and hospital length of stay.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data from the ESO Data Collaborative encompassing EMS records from the year 2022, focusing on 1525 patients with a primary GI bleeding diagnosis. The primary measure was the SI, calculated at initial contact and highest recorded prior to ED arrival. Statistical analysis included t-tests, linear regression, and ROC curves, performed using SPSS v29.

RESULTS

A significantly higher mean SI was observed in patients who died (mean SI 0.997) compared to survivors (mean SI 0.795), p < 0.001. Admission rates also correlated with higher SI values, p < 0.001. However, SI was not predictive of the hospital length of stay. ROC analysis for mortality prediction yielded an AUC of 0.656 for the initial SI and 0.739 for the highest SI. The standard SI cutoff of 0.9 predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 74.14% and specificity of 55.35% for the highest SI.

CONCLUSION

The SI is a valuable predictive tool for mortality among prehospital patients with GI bleeding. Its application may improve the triage process, potentially influencing transport decisions and initial hospital care. Despite its predictive capability for mortality, the SI should be supplemented with other clinical assessments to make comprehensive prehospital care decisions. Further research into SI as part of a comprehensive assessment which includes end-title CO2, mentation, and heaviness of bleeding.

[Gastrointestinal bleeding in old age]

Gastrointestinal bleeding is a frequent symptom, with increasing age as a risk factor. Upper, middle and lower gastrointestinal bleeding are differentiated depending on the location, whereby only upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding are elucidated in this article. The symptomatology varies depending on the localization of the bleeding. German and international clinical guidelines currently exist for the preclinical and clinical management of gastrointestinal bleeding. The main focus of the article is on pre-endoscopic management of upper gastrointestinal nonvariceal and variceal bleeding, including the risk stratification, transfusion and coagulation management as well as the initial pharmacological treatment. In addition, current developments in endoscopic and interventional treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding are highlighted.

Admission Hypocalcemia and the Need for Endoscopic and Clinical Interventions among Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Calcium is an essential co-factor in the coagulation cascade, and hypocalcemia is associated with adverse outcomes in bleeding patients, including trauma patients, women with postpartum hemorrhage, and patients with intracranial hemorrhage. In this retrospective, single-center, cohort study, we aimed to determine whether admission-ionized calcium (Ca++) is associated with higher rates of therapeutic interventions among patients presenting with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NV-UGIB).

METHODS

Adult patients admitted due to NV-UGIB between January 2009 and April 2020 were identified. The primary outcome was defined as a need for clinical intervention (two or more packed cell transfusions, need for endoscopic, surgical, or angiographic intervention). Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine whether Ca++ was an independent predictor of the need for therapeutic interventions. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust the imbalances of covariates between the groups.

RESULTS

A total of 434 patients were included, of whom 148 (34.1%) had hypocalcemia (Ca++ <1.15 mmol/L). Patients with hypocalcemia were more likely to require therapeutic interventions than those without hypocalcemia (48.0% vs. 18.5%, p < 0.001). Specifically, patients with hypocalcemia were more likely to require endoscopic intervention for control of bleeding (25.0% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.03) and multiple packed cell transfusions (6.8% vs. 0.3%, p < 0.001). Additionally, they had significantly longer hospital stay (5.0 days [IQR 3.0-8.0] vs. 4.0 days [IQR 3.0-6.0], p = 0.01). After adjusting for multiple covariates, Ca++ was an independent predictor of the need for therapeutic intervention (aOR 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.14, p < 0.001). The addition of Ca++ to the Modified Glasgow Blatchford score improved its accuracy in the prediction of therapeutic intervention from AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63-0.72) to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.76), p = 0.02. After incorporation of the propensity score, the results did not change significantly.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that hypocalcemia is common and is associated with an adverse clinical course in patients with NV-UGIB. Measurement of Ca++ on admission may facilitate risk stratification in these patients. Trials are needed to assess whether the correction of hypocalcemia will lead to improved outcomes.

At admission hemodynamic instability is associated with increased mortality and rebleeding rate in acute gastrointestinal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a life-threatening event. Around 20-30% of patients with GIB will develop hemodynamic instability (HI).

Objectives

We aimed to quantify HI as a risk factor for the development of relevant end points in acute GIB.

Design

A systematic search was conducted in three medical databases in October 2021.

Data sources and methods

Studies of GIB patients detailing HI as a risk factor for the investigated outcomes were selected. For the overall results, pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated based on a random-effects model. Subgroups were formed based on the source of bleeding. The Quality of Prognostic Studies tool was used to assess the risk of bias.

Results

A total of 62 studies were eligible, and 39 were included in the quantitative synthesis. HI was found to be a risk factor for both in-hospital (OR: 5.48; CI: 3.99-7.52) and 30-day mortality (OR: 3.99; CI: 3.08-5.17) in upper GIB (UGIB). HI was also associated with higher in-hospital (OR: 3.68; CI: 2.24-6.05) and 30-day rebleeding rates (OR: 4.12; 1.83-9.31) among patients with UGIB. The need for surgery was also more frequent in hemodynamically compromised UGIB patients (OR: 3.65; CI: 2.84-4.68). In the case of in-hospital mortality, the risk of bias was high for 1 (4%), medium for 13 (48%), and low for 13 (48%) of the 27 included studies.

Conclusion

Hemodynamically compromised patients have increased odds of all relevant untoward end points in GIB. Therefore, to improve the outcomes, adequate emergency care is crucial in HI.

Registration

PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021285727.

Strengths and limitations of risk stratification tools for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a narrative review

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in the management of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), associated morbidity and mortality remain significant. Most patients, however, will experience favorable outcomes without a need for hospital-based interventions. Risk assessment scores may assist in such early risk-stratification. These scales may optimize identification of low-risk patients, resulting in better resource utilization, including a reduced need for early endoscopy and fewer hospital admissions. The aim of this article is to provide an updated detailed review of risk assessment scores in UGIB.

AREA COVERED

A literature review identified past and currently available pre-endoscopic risk assessment scores for UGIB, with a focus on low-risk prediction. Strengths and weaknesses of the different scales are discussed as well as their impact on clinical decision-making.

EXPERT OPINION

The current evidence supports using the Glasgow Blatchford Score as it is the most accurate tool available when attempting to identify low-risk patients who can be safely managed on an outpatient basis. Currently, no risk assessment tool appears accurate enough in confidently classifying patients as high risk. Future research should utilize more standardized methodologies, while favoring interventional trial designs to better characterize the clinical impact attributable to the use of such risk stratification schemes.

External validation of Glasgow-Blatchford, modified Glasgow-Blatchford and CANUKA scores to identify low-risk patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in emergency departments: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a medical emergency with an approximate mortality of 10%, which results in a high hospitalisation rate. The Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) is recommended to identify low-risk patients who can be discharged from the emergency department (ED). A modified GBS (mGBS) and CANUKA score have recently been proposed but have not been well studied. The aim of this study was to assess whether the use of GBS, mGBS or CANUKA score could identify patients at low risk of death or need for intervention.

METHODS

A single-centre retrospective study was performed including patients with suspected UGIB visiting the ED of Saint-Antoine hospital (Paris, France) from January 2016 to December 2018. Demographic and medical data needed to calculate GBS and CANUKA were collected, as well as outcomes data. Need for intervention was defined as the need for blood transfusion, endoscopic haemostasis or rebleeding within 7 days. In-hospital mortality was also collected. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were measured for the score thresholds of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 386 patients were included. Median age was 60 years (38-78), 65.3% (n=252) were male and 60% (n=233) were hospitalised. A GBS≤1, mGBS=0 and CANUKA≤2 categorised 24.9%, 18.2% and 18.9% of patients as low risk, respectively. There was a need for intervention in 2.2%, 4.6% and 0% of those patients categorised as low risk by GBS, mGBS and CANUKA, respectively. No deaths occurred in the patients identified as low risk, regardless of the score used. All scores had a high sensitivity and negative predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with UGIB, the use of a GBS≤1 or CANUKA score ≤2 appears to be safe for identifying patients at low risk of death or need for intervention.

Defining Time in Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: When Should We Start the Clock?

Introduction: The execution of upper endoscopy at the proper time is key to correctly managing patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Nonetheless, the definition of “time” for endoscopic examinations in UGIB patients is imprecise. The primary aim of this study was to verify whether the different definitions of “time” (i.e., the symptoms-to-endoscopy and presentation-to-endoscopy timeframes) impact mortality. The secondary purpose of this study was to evaluate the similarity between the two timeframes. Methods: A post-hoc analysis was performed on a prospective multicenter cohort study, which included UGIB patients admitted to 50 Italian hospitals. We collected the timings from symptoms and presentation to endoscopy, together with other demographic, organizational and clinical data and outcomes. Results: Out of the 3324 patients in the cohort, complete time data were available for 3166 patients. A significant difference of 9.2 h (p < 0.001) was found between the symptoms-to-endoscopy vs. presentation-to-endoscopy timeframes. The symptoms-to-endoscopy timeframe demonstrated (1) a different death risk profile and (2) a statistically significant improvement in the prediction of mortality risk compared to the presentation-to-endoscopy timeframe (p < 0.0002). The similarity between the two different timeframes was moderate (K = 0.42 ± 0.01; p < 0.001). Conclusions: The symptoms-to-endoscopy and presentation-to-endoscopy timeframes referred to different timings during the management of upper endoscopy in bleeding patients, with the former being more accurate in correctly identifying the mortality risk of these patients. We suggest that further studies be conducted to validate our observations, and, if confirmed, a different definition of time should be adopted in endoscopy.

The Accuracy of Pre-Endoscopic Scores for Mortality Prediction in Patients with Upper GI Bleeding and No Endoscopy Performed

(1) Background: The assessment of mortality and rebleeding rate in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is essential, and several prognostic scores have been proposed. Some patients with UGIB did not undergo endoscopy, either because they refused the procedure, suffered from alcohol withdrawal symptoms or altered general status, or because the bleeding was severe enough to cause death before the endoscopy. The mortality risk in the subgroup of patients without endoscopy is poorly evaluated in the literature. (2) Methods: The purpose of the study was to identify the most useful scores for the assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with UGIB with no endoscopy performed and no known etiology. A total of 198 patients with UGIB and no endoscopy performed were admitted between January 2017 and December 2021 and the accuracy of 12 prognostic scores and the Charlson comorbidity index for in-hospital mortality prediction were analyzed, as well as Child-Pugh Turcotte (CPT) and Meld scores in patients with cirrhosis. (3) Results: The mortality rate was 37.9%, higher than in variceal (21.9%, p < 0.0001) and non-variceal bleeding (7.4%, p < 0.0001). The most accurate scores by AUC were the International Bleeding score (INBS, 0.844), Glasgow Blatchford (0.783), MAP score (0.78), Iino (0.766), AIM65 and modified N-score (0.745 each), modified Glasgow-Blatchford (0.73), H3B2 and N-score (0.701); Rockall, Baylor, and T-score had an AUC below 0.7. MELD score was superior to CPT in patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.811 versus 0.670). (4) Conclusions: The mortality rate in UGIB with no endoscopy was higher than in both variceal and non-variceal bleeding and was higher in the pandemic period but with no statistical significance (45.3% versus 32.14%, p = 0.0586), mainly because of positive cases. Only one case of rebleeding was noted; the hospitalization period was significantly shorter. The most accurate score was International Bleeding Score; the MELD score had a higher but moderate accuracy compared with CPT in patients with cirrhosis.

Role of CT angiography and therapeutic anticoagulation in patients presenting to the emergency department with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is associated with morbidity and mortality. There can be a low threshold for practitioners to assess for active GIB and computed tomography angiography (CTA) examinations are performed frequently, even for stable patients and those who are therapeutically anticoagulated. We aimed to assess the predictive value of CTA for acute GIB and the influence of CTA on treatment.

METHODS

Retrospective single-centre study over a 2-year period.

RESULTS

A total of 227 patients with mean age 67.7 years (SD 17.86), 58.6% male. 84.4% were for lower GIB. 49 patients were on therapeutic anticoagulation (21.6%). 45 CTAs were positive (19.8%). 22 patients received embolisation, and 15 received acute endoscopic treatment. CTA sensitivity was 68.6% and specificity 89.1%. The PPV was 53.3% and NPV 93.9%. The odds ratio of a positive CTA requiring treatment for patients on therapeutic anticoagulation was 1.1 (P = 0.932) compared with the odds of patients not taking therapeutic anticoagulation 21.5 (P < 0.001). The risk ratio for requiring treatment if not taking anticoagulation was 6.2. A total of 19 patients (9.1%) met the definition of CI-AKI as a result of the CTA. A pre-existing eGFR of less than 20 was associated with significantly increased odds of developing CI-AKI (OR 3.95, P = 0.031, 95%CI 1.135-13.782).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of anticoagulation has a significant impact on the decision not to perform interventional treatments on patients with acute GIB when CTA is positive. Anticoagulant reversal and volume resuscitation are important front-line measures, and CTA may have a role for those anticoagulated who are haemodynamically unstable after resuscitation.

External validation and comparison of the Glasgow-Blatchford score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford score, Rockall score and AIMS65 score in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a cross-sectional observational study in Western Switzerland

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) presents a high incidence in an emergency department (ED) and requires careful evaluation of the patient's risk level to ensure optimal management. The primary aim of this study was to externally validate and compare the performance of the Rockall score, Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS and AIMS65 score to predict death and the need for an intervention among patients with UGIB. This was a cross-sectional observational study of patients consulting the ED of a Swiss tertiary care hospital with UGIB. Primary outcomes were the inhospital need for an intervention, including transfusion, or an endoscopic procedure or surgery or inhospital death. The secondary outcome was inhospital death. We included 1521 patients with UGIB, median age, 68 (52-81) years; 940 (62%) were men. Melena or hematemesis were the most common complaints in 1020 (73%) patients. Among 422 (28%) patients who needed an intervention or died, 76 (5%) died in the hospital. Accuracy of the scoring systems assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding and modified GBSs had the highest discriminatory capacity to determine inhospital death or the need of an intervention [AUC, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.80) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.81), respectively]. AIMS65 and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score showed a lower discrimination [AUC, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68), respectively]. For a GBS of 0, only one patient (0.8%) needed an endoscopic intervention. The modified Glasgow-Blatchford and Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding scores appear to be the most accurate scores to predict the need for intervention or inhospital death.

[Gastrointestinal bleeding]

GASTROINTESTINAL BLEEDING

Gastrointestinal bleeding occurs frequently in clinical practice. The presence of gastrointestinal bleeding usually is suspected by typical clinical history and results of clinical examination and laboratory findings. Endoscopic treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding is associated with high success rates over 90%. Different techniques for endoscopic hemostasis are available and for most indications, a combination of two modalities is recommended. Endoscopic management of recurrent or persistent bleeding is technically more challenging and associated with increased mortality (up to 10%, especially in patients with high age and comorbidities). In this situation, endoscopic hemostasis using an over-the-scope clip has shown to be superior to standard treatment for recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding in the upper gastrointestinal tract. Recent studies also have shown superiority for first-line over-the-scope clip treatment of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in high-risk patients. In this review, management of gastrointestinal bleeding is summarized based on current guidelines and current literature.

Scoring systems for predicting clinical outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding

Few studies have focused on assessing the usefulness of scoring systems such as the Rockall score (RS), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), and AIMS65 score for risk stratification and prognosis prediction in peptic ulcer bleeding patients. This study aimed to assess scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes of patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. A total of 682 peptic ulcer bleeding patients who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy between January 2013 and December 2017 were found eligible for this study. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of each score was calculated for predicting rebleeding, hospitalization, blood transfusion, and mortality. The median age of patients was 64 (interquartile range, 56-75) years. Of the patients, 74.9% were men, and 373 underwent endoscopic intervention. The median RS, GBS, and AIMS65 scores were significantly higher in patients who underwent endoscopic intervention than in those who did not. The AUROC of RS for predicting rebleeding was significantly higher than that of GBS (P = .022) or AIMS65 (P < .001). GBS best predicted the need for blood transfusion than either pre-RS (P = .013) or AIMS65 (P = .001). AIMS65 score showed the highest AUROC for mortality (0.652 vs. 0.622 vs. 0.691). RS was significantly associated with rebleeding (odds ratio, 1.430; P < .001) and overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.217; P < .001). The RS, GBS, and AIMS65 scoring systems are acceptable tools for predicting clinical outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding. RS is an independent prognostic factor of rebleeding and overall survival.

Timing of endoscopic intervention in patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal haemorrhage (TEACH trial): protocol for a randomised clinical trial (RCT)

INTRODUCTION

Acute variceal haemorrhage (AVH) in patients with cirrhosis remains a topic of great interest. Although several guidelines recommend endoscopy within 24 hours after AVH, there is no consensus on the most appropriate time to perform this intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify whether urgent endoscopy (within 6 hours after gastroenterological consultation) is superior to non-urgent endoscopy (between 6 hours and 24 hours after gastroenterological consultation) in reducing the rebleeding rate of these patients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a single-centred, prospective, randomised clinical trial. Between March 2021 and December 2023, an estimated 400 patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive endoscopic intervention either within 6 hours or between 6 and 24 hours after gastroenterological consultation. Randomisation will be conducted by permuted block randomisation, with stratification by age, systolic blood pressure and pulse rate. The primary efficacy endpoint is rebleeding within 42 days after control of AVH. The secondary efficacy endpoints mainly include all-cause mortality within 42 days after randomisation, persistent bleeding, length of hospitalisation, etc. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was approved by the Ethical Committees of Jinling Hospital (authorised ethics no. DZQH-KYLL-21-01). This trial will provide valuable insights into the timing of endoscopic intervention for AVH in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermore, the trial results and conclusions could provide high-quality evidence to guide clinical research and treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04786743.

Timing of endoscopy for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a territory-wide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

While it is recommended that patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) should receive endoscopic intervention within 24 hours, the optimal timing is still uncertain. We aimed to assess whether endoscopy timing postadmission would affect outcomes.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective, territory-wide, cohort study with healthcare data from all public hospitals in Hong Kong. Adult patients (age ≥18) that presented with AUGIB between 2013 and 2019 and received therapeutic endoscopy within 48 hours (n=6474) were recruited. Patients were classified based on endoscopic timing postadmission: urgent (t≤6), early (6<t≤24) and late (24<t≤48). Baseline characteristics were balanced with inverse probability of treatment weighting. 30-day all-cause mortality, repeated therapeutic endoscopy rate, intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate and other endpoints were compared.

RESULTS

Results showed that urgent timing (n=1008) had worse outcomes compared with early endoscopy (n=3865), with higher 30-day all-cause mortality (p<0.001), repeat endoscopy rates (p<0.001) and ICU admission rates (p<0.001). Late endoscopy (n=1601) was associated with worse outcomes, with higher 30-day mortality (p=0.003), in-hospital mortality (p=0.022) and 30-day transfusion rates (p=0.018).

CONCLUSION

Compared with urgent and late endoscopy among patients who have received therapeutic endoscopies, early endoscopy was associated with superior outcomes especially among patients with non-variceal bleeding. This supports the notion that non-variceal AUGIB patients should receive endoscopy within 24 hours, but also emphasises the importance of prior resuscitation and pharmacotherapy.

Prediction of the need for emergency endoscopic treatment for upper gastrointestinal bleeding and new score model: a retrospective study

Background

Gastrointestinal bleeding is one of the major gastrointestinal diseases. In this study, our objective was to compare Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), AIMS65 score, MAP score, Modified GBS, and Iino score as outcome measures for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. In addition, we extracted factors associated with hemostatic procedures including endoscopy, and proposed a new robust score model.

Methods

From January 2015 to December 2019, 675 patients with symptoms such as hematemesis who visited the National Hospital Organization Disaster Medical Center and underwent urgent upper endoscopy with diagnosis of suspected non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were retrospectively reviewed. We evaluated the GBS, AIMS65 score, MAP score, Modified GBS, and Iino score, and assessed the outcomes of patients requiring hemostatic treatments at the subsequent emergency endoscopy. We performed logistic regression analysis of factors related to endoscopic hemostasis and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, created a new score model, and evaluated the prediction of hemostatic treatment and mortality in the new score and the existing scores.

Results

The factors associated with endoscopic treatment were hematemesis, heart rate, HB (hemoglobin), blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Based on these predictors and the partial regression coefficients, a new score named H3B2 (using the initial letters of hematemesis, heart rate, HB, blood pressure, and BUN) was generated. H3B2 score was slightly more discriminatory compared to GBS and Modified GBS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC): 0.73 versus 0.721 and 0.7128, respectively) in predicting hemostatic treatment in emergency endoscopy. The H3B2 score also showed satisfactory prediction accuracy for subsequent deaths (AUROC: 0.6857. P < 0.001).

Conclusions

We proposed a new score, the H3B2 score, consisting of simple and objective indices in cases of suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The H3B2 score is useful in identifying high-risk patients with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding who require urgent hemostatic treatment including emergency endoscopy.

Association of inferior vena cava diameter ratio with outcomes in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective

To examine the association of inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter ratio measured using computed tomography with outcomes in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB).

Methods

A single-center retrospective observational study was conducted on consecutive patients with GIB who presented to the emergency department. The IVC diameter ratio was calculated by dividing the maximum transverse and anteroposterior diameters perpendicular to it. The association of the IVC diameter ratio with outcomes was examined using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the IVC diameter ratio was calculated, and the sensitivity and specificity, including the cutoff values, were computed.

Results

In total, 585 patients were included in the final analysis. The in-hospital mortality rate was 4.6% (n=27). The IVC diameter ratio was significantly associated with higher in-hospital mortality in multivariable logistic regression analysis (odds ratio, 1.793; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.239–2.597; P=0.002). The AUC of the IVC diameter ratio for in-hospital mortality was 0.616 (95% CI, 0.498–0.735). With a cutoff of the IVC diameter ratio (≥2.1), the sensitivity and specificity for predicting in-hospital mortality were 44% (95% CI, 26%–65%) and 71% (95% CI, 67%–75%), respectively.

Conclusion

The IVC diameter ratio was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with GIB. However, the AUC of the IVC diameter ratio for in-hospital mortality was low.

Decreased Rate of Presentation, but Worsened Racial-Ethnic Disparity in Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding During Coronavirus 2019 Shutdown: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

In spring 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) "stay-at-home" orders may have led to later, more acute disease presentations of emergent conditions such as gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). In this retrospective cohort study, we compared incidence and severity of GIB during the strictest COVID shutdown to pre-COVID periods.

Patients and methods

We compared weekly counts of emergency department (ED) visits for GIB between March 27 and May 7, 2020 (COVID period) and pre-COVID periods in 2019 and 2020 in a US statewide network of hospitals. We compared the severity of GIB presentations using incident rate ratios (IRR) of "severe" GIB (requiring ≥4 units of blood, endoscopic therapy, interventional radiology or surgical procedure), intensive care (ICU) admission and shock. We also looked for effect modification of demographic covariates on associations between year and GIB outcomes.

Results

Fewer patients presented to ED for GIB during COVID than during the same dates in 2019 (534 versus 904; IRR 0.59, 95% CI 0.53-0.66). A greater proportion of COVID-period ED visits required inpatient admission (73.6% vs 67.8%, p = 0.02) and had severe GIB (19.3% vs 14.9%, p = 0.03). Proportion of patients requiring transfusion (p < 0.001), with shock (p < 0.01), or with critical hemoglobin (p = 0.003) or lactate (p = 0.02) were worse during COVID. Non-white patients experienced disproportionately worse outcomes during COVID than in 2019, with greater absolute counts of shock (65 vs 62, p = 0.01 for interaction) or ICU admission (40 vs 35, p = 0.01 for interaction).

Conclusion

Fewer acute GIB presented during the pandemic period compared to the year prior. The severity of pandemic presentations was greater, driven by disproportionately worse outcomes in minorities.

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: cross-validation of several risk scoring systems

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify the clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic features associated with in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), focusing on cross-validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (RS), and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) scoring systems.

METHODS

Our prospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with AUGIB. Several statistical approaches were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the scoring systems.

RESULTS

All three scoring systems were able to accurately predict in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] > 0.9); however, the multiple logistic model separated the presence of hemodynamic instability (state of shock) and the CSMCPI as the only significant predictive risk factors. In compliance with the overall results, the CSMCPI was consistently found to be superior to the other two systems (highest AUC, highest sensitivity and specificity, highest positive and negative predictive values, highest positive likelihood ratio, lowest negative likelihood ratio, and 1-unit increase in CSMCPI associated with 6.3 times higher odds of mortality), outperforming the GBS and full RS.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest consideration of the CSMCPI as a readily available and reliable tool for accurately predicting in-hospital mortality after AUGIB, thus providing an essential backbone in clinical decision-making.

Hypocalcemia is associated with adverse clinical course in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NV-UGIB) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Early and efficient risk stratification can facilitate management and improve outcomes. We aimed to determine whether the level of ionized calcium (Ca⁺⁺), an essential co-factor in the coagulation cascade, is associated with the severity of bleeding and the need for advanced interventions among these patients. This was a retrospective single-center cohort study of all patients admitted due to NV-UGIB. The primary outcome was transfusion of ≥ 2 packed red blood cells, arterial embolization, or emergency surgery. Secondary outcomes included (1) transfusion of ≥ 2 packed red blood cells, (2) arterial embolization, or emergency surgery, and (3) all-cause in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine whether Ca⁺⁺ was an independent predictor of these adverse outcomes. 1345 patients were included. Hypocalcemia was recorded in 604 (44.9%) patients. The rates of primary adverse outcome were significantly higher in the hypocalcemic group, 14.4% vs. 5.1%, p < 0.001. Secondary outcomes-multiple transfusions, need for angiography or surgery, and mortality were also increased (9.9% vs. 2.3%, p < 0.001, 5.3% vs. 2.8%, p = 0.03, and 33.3% vs. 24.7%, p < 0.001, respectively). Hypocalcemia was an independent predictor of primary and all the secondary outcomes, except mortality. Hypocalcemia in high-risk hospitalized patients with NV-UGIB is common and independently associated with adverse outcomes. Ca⁺⁺ monitoring in this population may facilitate the rapid identification of high-risk patients. Trials are needed to assess whether correction of hypocalcemia will lead to improved outcomes.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford Score and Rockall Score in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Introduction:

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding can be a life-threatening condition and requires careful evaluation from the very first episode in order to reduce the risk of rebleeding, hemorrhagic shock and death. The outcome of a patient with upper gastrointestinal bleeding depends on resuscitation measures taken during admission to the hospital and an adequate assessment of the patient’s risk level.

Aim:

The aim of the study is to compare Glasgow Blatchford score and Rockall score and to identify the most accurate score used in predicting unfavorable outcomes and the need for intervention.

Methods:

This study involves 237 patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The accuracy of the scoring systems was assessed by plotting receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and was calculated for GBS and RS with 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results:

As for mortality prediction, RS was superior to GBS (AUC 0.806 vs. 0.750). The GBS had a higher accuracy in detecting patients who needed transfusion units and was superior to the RS (AUC 0.810 vs.0.675). In predicting the need for intervention, RS was superior to GBS (AUC 0.707 vs. 0.636.

Conclusion:

GBS and RS are developed to help clinicians to triage patients appropriately in order to assess endoscopic therapy within a suitable time frame, as well as identify low risk patients for possible outpatient management. High accuracy of the GBS in predicting a need for transfusion represents an important endpoint to assess. RS was superior to GBS in predicting a need for intervention as well as mortality. Currently, a combination of these scoring systems is the best way for proper assessment.

Endoscopic hemostasis makes the difference: Angiographic treatment in patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND

The large majority of gastrointestinal bleedings subside on their own or after endoscopic treatment. However, a small number of these may pose a challenge in terms of therapy because the patients develop hemodynamic instability, and endoscopy does not achieve adequate hemostasis. Interventional radiology supplemented with catheter angiography (CA) and transarterial embolization have gained importance in recent times.

AIM

To evaluate clinical predictors for angiography in patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB).

METHODS

We compared two groups of patients in a retrospective analysis. One group had been treated for more than 10 years with CA for LGIB (n = 41). The control group had undergone non-endoscopic or endoscopic treatment for two years and been registered in a bleeding registry (n = 92). The differences between the two groups were analyzed using decision trees with the goal of defining clear rules for optimal treatment.

RESULTS

Patients in the CA group had a higher shock index, a higher Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (GBS), lower serum hemoglobin levels, and more rarely achieved hemostasis in primary endoscopy. These patients needed more transfusions, had longer hospital stays, and had to undergo subsequent surgery more frequently (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Endoscopic hemostasis proved to be the crucial difference between the two patient groups. Primary endoscopic hemostasis, along with GBS and the number of transfusions, would permit a stratification of risks. After prospective confirmation of the present findings, the use of decision trees would permit the identification of patients at risk for subsequent diagnosis and treatment based on interventional radiology.

Risk Factors for Acute Coronary Syndrome in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common critical disease with a certain fatality rate. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), another critical ill condition, is a regular occurrence in the UGIB. We identified risk factors for ACS in UGIB.

Methods

676 patients diagnosed with UGIB were enrolled retrospectively. We assessed the occurrence of ACS in UGIB patients and identified the risk factors for ACS by logistic regression analysis and random forest analysis.

Results

After propensity score matching (PSM), the ACS group (n = 69) and non-ACS group (n = 276) were analyzed. Logistic regression analysis showed that syncope (P = 0.001), coronary heart disease history (P = 0.001), Glasgow Blatchford score (P ≤ 0.001), Rockall risk score (P = 0.004), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (P ≤ 0.001), total bilirubin (TBil) (P = 0.046), fibrinogen (P ≤ 0.001), and hemoglobin (P = 0.001) had important roles in ACS patients. With Mean Decrease Gini (MDG) sequencing, fibrinogen, RDW, and hemoglobin were ranked the top three risk factors associated with ACS. In ROC analysis, fibrinogen (AUC = 0.841, 95% CI: 0.779-0.903) and RDW (AUC = 0.826, 95% CI: 0.769-0.883) obtained good discrimination performance. According to sensitivity > 80%, the pAUC of fibrinogen and RDW were 0.077 and 0.101, respectively, and there was no significant difference (P = 0.326). However, according to specificity > 80%, the pAUC of fibrinogen was higher than that of RDW (0.126 vs. 0.088, P = 0.018).

Conclusion

Fibrinogen and RDW were important risk factors for ACS in UGIB. Additionally, combination with coronary heart disease, syncope, hemoglobin, and TBil played important roles in the occurrence of ACS. Meanwhile, it was also noted that Rockall score and Glasgow Blatchford score should be performed to predict the risk.

Immature Granulocyte Count and Percentage as New Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Aims

Early identification of patients at risk of adverse outcomes may increase the survival rates in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), but this can be difficult to predict in emergencies. The aim of the study is to evaluate immature granulocyte (IG), which can be obtained from simple hemogram tests in patients with UGIB, in terms of clinical use and as a mortality marker.

Materials and methods

The patients diagnosed with UGIB between March 1, 2019, and September 30, 2019, were evaluated retrospectively. Demographic characteristics, causes of hemorrhage, clinical presentations, hemogram, and biochemistry values at ED admission and 30-day mortality status of the patients were examined. We divided the patients into groups according to their mortality status, and the groups were compared among themselves in terms of parameters.

Results

A total of 213 patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study. Of these patients, 139 (65.3%) were male and the mean age was 65.05 ± 16.7 years. Fifteen (7%) of them were in the nonsurvival group, while 198 (93%) were in the survival group. The efficacy of both the IG count (IGC) and IG% in predicting mortality was statistically significant (p = 0.002, p = 0.008, respectively). The sensitivity and specificity for the IGC were found as 60% and 84.4; for the IG%, they were found as 66.7% and 75.7%, respectively.

Conclusion

IGC and IG% are independent risk factors for the 30-day mortality status. These measurements are obtained from simple hemogram tests and may be useful for the evaluation of mortality in patients with UGIB.

How to cite this article

Bedel C, Korkut M, Avcı A, Uzun A. Immature Granulocyte Count and Percentage as New Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(9):794-798.

Prediction of Adverse Events in Stable Non-Variceal Gastrointestinal Bleeding Using Machine Learning

Clinical risk-scoring systems are important for identifying patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who are at a high risk of hemodynamic instability. We developed an algorithm that predicts adverse events in patients with initially stable non-variceal UGIB using machine learning (ML). Using prospective observational registry, 1439 out of 3363 consecutive patients were enrolled. Primary outcomes included adverse events such as mortality, hypotension, and rebleeding within 7 days. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, logistic regression with regularization (LR), random forest classifier (RF), gradient boosting classifier (GB), and voting classifier (VC), were compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall scores. The RF model showed the highest accuracies and significant improvement over conventional methods for predicting mortality (area under the curve: RF 0.917 vs. GBS 0.710), but the performance of the VC model was best in hypotension (VC 0.757 vs. GBS 0.668) and rebleeding within 7 days (VC 0.733 vs. GBS 0.694). Clinically significant variables including blood urea nitrogen, albumin, hemoglobin, platelet, prothrombin time, age, and lactate were identified by the global feature importance analysis. These results suggest that ML models will be useful early predictive tools for identifying high-risk patients with initially stable non-variceal UGIB admitted at an emergency department.

Profile and outcome of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting to urban emergency departments of tertiary hospitals in Tanzania

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common emergency department (ED) presentation with high morbidity and mortality. There is a paucity of data on the profile and outcome of patients who present with UGIB to EDs, especially within limited resource settings where emergency medicine is a new specialty. We aim to describe the patient profile, clinical severity and outcomes of the patients who present with UGIB to the ED of tertiary referral hospitals in Tanzania.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study of consecutive adult (≥18 years) patients presenting to the EDs of Muhimbili National Hospital (ED-MNH) and MUHAS Academic Medical Centre (ED-MAMC), in Tanzania with non-traumatic upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) from July 2018 to December 2018. Patient demographic data, clinical presentation, and ED and hospital management provided were recorded. We used the clinical Rockall score to assess disease severity. The primary outcome of 7- day mortality was summarized using descriptive statistics. Regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of mortality.

Results

During the study period, 123 patients presented to one of the two EDs with an UGIB. The median age was 42 years (Interquartile range (IQR) 32–64 years), and 87 (70.7%) were male. Hematemesis with melena was the most frequently encountered ED complaint 39 (31.7%). Within 7 days, 23 (18.7%) patients died and one-third 8 (34.8%) of these died within 24 h. There were no ED deaths. About 65.1% of the patients had severe anemia but only 60 (48.8%) received blood transfusion in the ED. Amongst those with history of (h/o) esophageal varices 7(41.2%) did not receive octreotide. Upper GI endoscopy, was performed on 46 (37.4%) patients, of whom only 8 (17.4%) received endoscopy within 24 h (early UGI endoscopy). All patients who received early UGI endoscopy had a low or moderate clinical Rockall score i.e. < 3 and 3–4. No patient with scores of > 4 received early UGI endoscopy. Age > 40 years was a significant independent predictor of mortality (OR = 7.00 (95% CI 1.7–29.2). Having a high clinical Rockall score of ≥ 4 was a significant independent predictor of mortality (OR = 6.4 (95% CI 1.8–22.8).

Conclusions

In this urban ED in Sub-Saharan Africa, UGIB carried a high mortality rate. Age > 40 years and clinical Rockall score ≥ 4 were independent predictors of higher mortality. Future studies should focus on evaluating how to improve access to UGI endoscopy so as to improve outcomes.

Prognostic value of risk scoring systems for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding is one of the deadliest complications of cirrhosis, with a high risk of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality. Some risk scoring systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been developed. However, for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, data regarding the predictive value of these prognostic scores in predicting in-hospital outcomes are limited and controversial.

AIM

To validate and compare the overall performance of selected prognostic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital outcomes in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding.

METHODS

From March 2017 to June 2019, cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding were retrospectively enrolled at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University. The clinical Rockall score (CRS), AIMS65 score (AIMS65), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS), Canada-United Kingdom-Australia score (CANUKA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD-Na were calculated. The overall performance of these prognostic scoring systems was evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 330 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding were enrolled; the rates of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality were 20.3% and 10.6%, respectively. For in-hospital rebleeding, the discriminative ability of the CTP and CRS were clinically acceptable, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.717 (0.648-0.787) and 0.716 (0.638-0.793), respectively. The other tested scoring systems had poor discriminative ability (AUROCs < 0.7). For in-hospital mortality, the CRS, CTP, AIMS65, MELD-Na and MELD showed excellent discriminative ability (AUROCs > 0.8). The AUROCs of the mGBS, CANUKA and GBS were relatively small, but clinically acceptable (AUROCs > 0.7). Furthermore, the calibration of all scoring systems was good for either in-hospital rebleeding or death.

CONCLUSION

For cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, in-hospital rebleeding and mortality rates remain high. The CTP and CRS can be used clinically to predict in-hospital rebleeding. The performances of the CRS, CTP, AIMS65, MELD-Na and MELD are excellent at predicting in-hospital mortality.

Lactate Level Predicts Mortality in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background and Objectives

The aim of this study was to show whether the level of lactate in venous blood compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS), in patients diagnosed with upper gastrointestinal system (UGI) bleeding in the emergency department, will help to predict the need for transfusion and prognosis.

Materials and Methods

Patients with UGI bleeding who were admitted to the emergency department were included in the study. The parameters age, gender, referral complaints, comorbidities, lactate levels in venous blood, GBS, endoscopy findings, length of hospital stay, transfusion amount, and outcome of patients were recorded in the data collection form.

Results

A total of 139 patients were included in the study. The most common complaints were melena (38.1%) and hematemesis (32.4%). The most frequent endoscopic diagnosis was duodenal ulcer (40.3%). The cutoff value of the venous blood lactate level for the prediction of the need for red blood cell transfusion was 1.58 mmol/L, and the cutoff value for GBS was 9.5. While 124 patients were discharged, 15 patients died. The mean value of venous lactate in survived patients was 2.37 mmol/L and 4.80 in dead patients. This difference was statistically significant (p = 0.044). The cutoff value of lactate for the prediction of mortality was 2.32 mmol/L, and the cutoff value for GBS was 13.5.

Conclusions

The venous blood lactate value of a patient who was admitted to the emergency department with UGI bleeding might be helpful in predicting the transfusion needs of the patient and predicting the mortality.

Comparison of the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall Scores for prediction of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding outcomes in Chinese patients

The Glasgow-Blatchford scores (GBS) and Rockall scores (RS) are commonly used for stratifying patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH). Although predictive value of these scoring methods has been extensively validated, their clinical effectiveness remains unclear. The following study evaluated the GBS and RS scoring system with reference to bleeding, needs for further surgery, endoscopic intervention and death, in order to verify their effectiveness and accuracy in clinical application.Patients who presented with NVUGIH, or who were consequently diagnosed with the disease (by endoscopy examination) between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2012 were enrolled in the study. GBS and RS scores were compared to predict bleeding, the needs for further surgery, endoscopic intervention, death by ROC curves and AUC value.Among 2977 patients, the pre-endoscopic RS and complete RS score (CRS) were superior to the GBS score (AUC: 0.842 vs 0.804 vs 0.622, respectively) for predicting the mortality risk in patients. The pre-endoscopic RS score predicting re-bleeding was significantly higher than the CRS and the GBS score (AUC: 0.658 vs 0.548 vs 0.528, respectively). In addition, the 3 scoring systems revealed to be poor predictors of surgical operation effectiveness (AUC: 0.589 vs 0.547 vs 0.504, respectively).Our data demonstrated that the GBS and RS scoring systems could be used to predict outcomes in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Massive transfusion in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a new scoring system

Background: Massive transfusion in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) was not investigated. We developed a new scoring system to predict massive transfusion and to enhance care and early resource mobilization. Methods: Massive transfusion was defined as transfusion with ≥10 units of red blood cells within the first 24 h. Data were extracted from a 10-year, six-hospital database. Logistic regression was applied to derive a risk score for massive transfusion using data from 2006 to 2010, in 24,736 patients (developmental cohort). The score was then validated using data from 2011 to 2015 in 27,449 patients (validation cohort). Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was performed to assess prediction accuracy. Results: Five characteristics were independently associated (p < .001) with massive transfusion: presence of band-form cells among white blood cells (band form >0), international normalized ratio (INR) >1.5, pulse >100 beats per minute or systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg (shock), haemoglobin <8.0 g/dL and endoscopic therapy. The new scoring system successfully discriminated well between UGIB patients requiring massive transfusion and those who did not in both cohorts (AUROC: 0.831, 95%CI: 0.827-0.836; AUROC: 0.822, 95% CI: 0.817-0.826, respectively). Conclusions: The new scoring system predicts massive transfusion requirement in patients with UGIB well. Key messages Massive transfusion is a life-saving management in massive upper gastrointestinal bleeding. How to identify patients requiring massive transfusion in upper gastrointestinal bleeding is poorly documented. Approximately 3.9% of upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients require massive transfusion. A new scoring system is developed to identify patients requiring massive transfusion with high accuracy.

Comparison of various prognostic scores in variceal and non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various prognostic scores like Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (GBS), modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (mGBS), full Rockall score (FRS) including endoscopic findings, clinical Rockall score (CRS), and albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), mental status, systolic blood pressure, age >65 (AIMS65) are used for risk stratification in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The utility of these scores in variceal UGIB (VUGIB) is not well defined. In this prospective study, we aimed to assess the performance of these scores in patients with non-variceal (NVUGIB) and VUGIB.

METHODS

We included 1011 patients (during March 2017 and August 2018) including 439 with NVUGIB and 572 VUGIB. Performance of GBS, mGBS, FRS, CRS, and AIMS65 for various outcome measures was analyzed using the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The accuracy of prognostic scores in predicting the composite outcome including the need of hospital-based intervention and 42-day mortality was higher in NVUGIB as compared with VUGIB, AUROC: CRS: 0.641 vs. 0.537; FRS: 0.669 vs. 0.625; GBS: 0.719 vs. 0.587; mGBS: 0.711 vs. 0.594; AIMS65: 0.567 vs. 0.548. GBS and mGBS at a cut-off score of 1 had the highest negative predictive value, 91.7% and 91.3%, respectively, for predicting composite outcome in NVUGIB. Similarly, these scores had better accuracy for predicting 42-day rebleeding in NVUGIB as compared to VUGIB, AUROC: CRS: 0.680 vs. 0.537; FRS: 0.698 vs. 0.565; GBS: 0.661 vs. 0.543; mGBS: 0.627 vs. 0.540; AIMS65: 0.695 vs. 0.606.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic scores such as CRS, FRS, GBS, mGBS, and AIMS65 predict the need for hospital-based management, rebleeding, and mortality better among patients with NVUGIB than VUGIB.

Comparison of risk scores in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in western India: A prospective analysis

AIM

To study the upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) characteristics and to validate the Rockall and Glasgow-Blatchford scores (GBS), Progetto Nazionale Emorragica Digestiva (PNED) and albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age > 65 (AIMS65) risk scores in predicting outcomes in patients with UGIB.

METHODS

Three hundred subjects with hematemesis and/or melena were prospectively enrolled and followed up for 30 days. All patients were assessed by hematological investigations, imaging, and endoscopy and risk scores were calculated.

RESULTS

The mean age was 43.5 ± 17.2 years, and 207 (69%) were males. Hematemesis was the most common presentation (94%). Variceal bleeding was the most common etiology (47.7%). Thirty patients died (10%) and 50 had rebleeding (16.7%). On univariate analysis, serum albumin ≤ 2.7 gm% (p = 0.008), Glasgow Coma scale ≤ 13.9 (p = 0.001), serum bilirubin > 3 mg/dL (p = 0.004), serum bicarbonate ≤ 15.7 mEq/L (p = 0.001), systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg (p = 0.004), and arterial pH ≤ 7.3 (p = 0.003) were found to be the predictors of mortality. No variable was found significant on multivariate analysis. All four scores were significant in predicting mortality, but Rockall (area under receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.728) was better than others. Rebleeding was better predicted by PNED (modified) (AUROC 0.705). In predicting the need for transfusion and surgical or radiological intervention, GBS score > 0 was significant while score of < 2 classified patients into low risk for mortality with high negative predictive value.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that the variceal bleeding was the commonest cause of UGIB. Rockall score was more significant in predicting mortality while PNED for rebleeding. Low risk for mortality, need for blood transfusion, or interventions were accurately predicted by GBS.

Emergency Department Presentation of a Patient with a Severe Upper Gastrointestinal Bleed: A Simulation Case for Training Emergency Medicine Residents

Emergency medicine practitioners frequently encounter acute presentations requiring quick, directed treatment to ensure the best patient outcome. Training residents in the appropriate clinical and procedural skills often proves difficult when treating the patient who is critically unwell. Simulation-based medical education is an effective modality that enables teaching around life-threatening medical conditions in a safe space for learners while avoiding adverse complications for patients. Severe gastrointestinal bleeding is one such condition that emergency medicine practitioners would benefit from encountering first in a simulation environment due to its high rate of morbidity and mortality if not quickly managed appropriately. This report describes a simulated scenario of an undifferentiated patient who is acutely unwell and then becomes hemodynamically unstable secondary to a severe gastrointestinal bleed. Delivery of the case is facilitated by the detailed technical report herein. It contains a stepwise, detailed summary of appropriate learners' actions and suggestions for learning objectives relating to the case.

Early Risk Score for Predicting Hypotension in Normotensive Patients with Non-Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleedin

Risk assessment for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is important; however, current scoring systems are insufficient. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for rapidly determining the occurrence of hypotension in non-variceal UGIB patients with normotension (systolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg) at emergency department presentation. In this prospective observational cohort study, consecutive non-variceal UGIB patients between January 2012 and April 2017 were enrolled. We developed and validated a new prediction model through logistic regression, with the occurrence of hypotension <24 h as the primary outcome. Among 3363 UGIB patients, 1439 non-variceal UGIB patients were included. The risk factors for the occurrence of hypotension were lactate level, blood in nasogastric tube, and systolic blood pressure. The area under the curve (AUC) of the new scoring model (LBS—Lactate, Blood in nasogastric tube, Systolic blood pressure) in the development cohort was 0.74, higher than the value of 0.64 of the Glasgow–Blatchford score for predicting the occurrence of hypotension. The AUC of the LBS score in the validation cohort was 0.83. An LBS score of ≤2 had a negative predictive value of 99.5% and an LBS score of ≥7 had a specificity of 97.5% in the validation cohort. The new LBS score stratifies normotensive patients with non-variceal UGIB at risk for developing hypotension.

The association between blood urea nitrogen to creatinine ratio and mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Azotaemia is commonly identified among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) due to absorption of blood products in the small bowel. Previous studies have found blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine (BUN/Cr) ratio to be significantly elevated among patients UGIB bleeding compared to patients with lower GI bleeding. However, no studies have explored the relationship between BUN/Cr ratio and mortality. This study is aimed at investigating how BUN/Cr ratio relates to outcomes for UGIB patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study was conducted prospectively at a university-affiliated teaching hospital with approximate 70,000 annual emergency department (ED) visits. Data from a total of 258 adult UGIB patients were collected between March 1, 2011 and March 1, 2012. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Malignancy and Rockall score were associated with increased risk of 30-day mortality (Unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 3.87, 95% CI: 1.59-9.41, p = 0.0029; HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.71, p = 0.0476, respectively). However, BUN/Cr > 30 was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality (HR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11-0.97, p = 0.0441).

CONCLUSIONS

A BUN/Cr ratio of >30 was found to be an independent risk factor for mortality and may be useful for pre-endoscopic assessment. Development of future risk scoring systems might warrant consideration of including BUN/Cr ratio as a parameter for estimating risk.

Both Full Glasgow-Blatchford Score and Modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score Predict the Need for Intervention and Mortality in Patients with Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) has been developed for risk stratification in management of acute upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. However, the performance of GBS in patients with lower GI bleeding is unknown.

AIM

To evaluate the performance of full or modified GBS and modified GBS in prediction of major clinical outcomes in patients with lower GI bleeding.

METHODS

A retrospective study of patients admitted to a tertiary care center with either non-variceal upper GI bleeding or lower GI bleeding was conducted. The full and modified GBS were calculated for all patients. The primary outcome was a combined outcome of inpatient mortality, need for endoscopic, surgical, or radiologic procedure to control the bleed or treat the underlying source, and need for blood transfusion.

RESULTS

A total of 1026 patients (562 cases for upper GI and 464 cases for lower GI) were included in the study. Hospital-based interventions and mortality were significantly higher in upper GI bleeding group. The performance of the full GBS in lower GI bleeding (area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) 0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.82) was comparable to full GBS in upper GI bleeding (AUROC 0.77, 95% CI 0.73-0.81) in predicting the primary outcome. Similarly, the performance of modified GBS in lower GI bleeding was shown to be comparable to modified GBS in upper GI bleeding (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.83 vs. AUROC 0.76 95% CI 0.72-0.80).

CONCLUSION

In patients with lower GI bleeding, both full GBS and modified GBS can predict the need for hospital-based interventions and mortality.

Comparison of four scoring systems for risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective:

This study aimed to compare the performances of the Glasgow–Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS), pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PRS), complete Rockall score (CRS), and Cedars–Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB).

Methods:

Patients who were admitted to the emergency department because of UGIB and underwent endoscopy within the first 24 hour were included in this study. The GBS, PRS, CRS, and CSMCPI were propectively calculated. The performances of these scores were assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results:

A total of 153 patients were included in this study. For the prediction of high-risk patients, area under the curve (AUC) was obtained for GBS (0.912), PRS (0.968), CRS (0.991), and CSMCPI (0.918). For the prediction of rebleeding, AUC was obtained for GBS (0.656), PRS (0.625), CRS (0.701), and CSMCPI (0.612). For the prediction of 30-day mortality, AUC was obtained for GBS (0.658), PRS (0.757), CRS (0.823), and CSMCPI (0.745).

Conclusion:

These results suggest that effectiveness of CRS is higher than that of other scores in predicting high-risk patients, rebleeding and 30-day mortality in patients with UGIB.

Advances in the Therapy of Bleeding Peptic Ulcer

Peptic ulcer bleeding remains an important medical emergency. Important recent advances are reviewed. These include further support for a more restrictive transfusion strategy aiming for a target haemoglobin of 70-90 g/L. The Glasgow-Blatchford score remains the most useful assessment score for identifying the lowest risk patients suitable for outpatient management and predicting the need for intervention. Newer scores such as the AIMS65 and Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestive score (PNED) may be more accurate in predicting mortality. Pre-endoscopy erythromycin improves outcomes and is underused. A new disposable Doppler probe appears to provide more accurate determination of both rebleeding risk and the success of endoscopic therapy than purely visual guidance. Over-the-scope clips and haemostatic powders appear to have some role as endoscopic salvage therapies. Non- H. pylori, non-aspirin/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) ulcers contribute to an increasing percentage of bleeding peptic ulcers and are associated with a high rebleeding rate. The optimal management of these ulcers remains to be determined.

Is the AIMS 65 Score Useful in Prepdicting Clinical Outcomes in Korean Patients with Variceal and Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding?

Background/Aims

Various clinical scoring systems, including the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), Rockall risk score (RS), and AIMS65 score (AIMS65), have been validated to predict the clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). We compared the performance of these three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB in Korea.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated 286 patients with UGIB who visited emergency department. The primary outcome was the need for clinical intervention (endoscopic, radiologic, or surgical) and blood transfusion.

Results

The causes of UGIB were esophageal/gastric varices in 64 patients, peptic ulcer in 168, Mallory-Weiss tear in 32, malignancy of UGI tract in eight, and unknown in 14. One hundred seventy-four (61%) patients required blood transfusion, 166 (58%) required endoscopic intervention, and 10 (3.5%) required surgical intervention. The GBS outperformed the RS and AIMS65 in predicting the need for endoscopic intervention.

Conclusions

The GBS and RS were more accurate than AIMS65 in predicting the need for clinical interventions and transfusion patients with UGIB, regardless of variceal or nonvariceal bleeding. The AIMS65 may not be optimal for predicting clinical outcomes of UGIB in Korea.

Optimizing the Risk Assessment in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Comparison of 5 Scores Predicting 7 Outcomes

Introduction

Although different scores have been suggested to predict outcomes in the setting of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), few comparative studies between simplified versions of older scores and recent scores have been published. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of pre- (PreRS) and postendoscopic Rockall scores (PostRS), the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and its simplified version (sGBS), as well as the AIMS65 score in predicting different clinical outcomes.

Methods

In this retrospective study, PreRS, PostRS, GBS, sGBS, and AIMS65 score were calculated, and then, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each score to predict blood transfusion, endoscopic therapy, surgery, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, as well as 30-day rebleeding or mortality.

Results

PreRS, PostRS, GBS, and sGBS were calculated for all the 433 included patients, but AIMS65 calculation was only possible for 315 patients. Only the PreRS and PostRS were able to fairly predict 30-day mortality. The GBS and sGBS were good in predicting blood transfusion and reasonable in predicting surgery. None of the studied scores were good in predicting the need for endoscopic therapy, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, and 30-day rebleeding.

Conclusions

Owing to the identified limitations, none of the 5 studied scores could be singly used to predict all the clinically relevant outcomes in the setting of UGIB. The sGBS was as precise as the GBS in predicting blood transfusion and surgery. The PreRS and PostRS were the only scores that could predict 30-day mortality. An algorithm using the PreRS and the sGBS as an initial approach to patients with UGIB is presented and suggested.

Efficacy of Over-the-Scope Clips in Management of High-Risk Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Standard endoscopic therapies do not control bleeding or produce complications in as many as 20% of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. Most bleeding comes from ulcers with characteristics such as high-risk vascular territories and/or large vessels. We evaluated the efficacy of using over-the-scope clips (OTSCs) as primary or rescue therapy for patients with bleeding from lesions that have a high risk for adverse outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 67 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding from high-risk lesions who were treated with OTSCs as primary (n = 49) or rescue therapy (n = 18) at a quaternary center, from December 2011 through February 2015. The definition of high-risk lesions was lesions that were situated in the area of a major artery and larger than 2 mm in diameter and/or a deep penetrating, excavated, fibrotic ulcer with high-risk stigmata, in which a perforation could not be ruled out or thermal therapy would cause perforation, or lesions that could not be treated by standard endoscopy. Clinical severity was determined based on the Rockall score and a modified Blatchford score. Our primary outcome was the incidence of rebleeding within 30 days after OTSC placement. We assessed risk factors for rebleeding using univariate hazard models followed by multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 67 patients, 47 (70.1%) remained free of rebleeding at 30 days after OTSC placement. We found no difference in the proportion of patients with rebleeding who received primary or rescue therapy (hazard ratio, 0.639; 95% confidence interval, 0.084-4.860; P = .6653). Only 9 rebleeding events were linked clearly to OTSCs and required intervention, indicating an OTSC success rate of 81.3%. We found no significant associations between rebleeding and clinical scores. However, on multivariable analysis, patients with coronary artery disease had a higher risk of rebleeding after OTSC independent of international normalized ratio and antiplatelet use (hazard ratio, 7.30; P = .0002).

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective analysis of 67 patients with bleeding from high-risk gastrointestinal lesions, we found OTSCs to prevent rebleeding in more than 80% of cases. In the past, these lesions were treated with surgical or radiologic interventions. Patients with coronary artery disease have an increased risk of rebleeding after OTSCs, suggesting the need for escalated therapies.

The Role of History of Gastro-Duodenal Ulcer in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Some scoring systems have been introduced to predict the need for performing urgent endoscopy in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, in an emergency situation, this intervention is insufficient and cannot easily provide the required treatment.

AIM

To identify new risk factors that can predict the need for endoscopic intervention (EI) in UGIB patients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. Patients with UGIB admitted from April 2011 to August 2014 were included. The proportion of cases requiring EI and clinical factors (age, gender, antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy, history of gastro-duodenal ulcer (GDU), systolic blood pressure, heart rate, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, blood urea nitrogen-creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr ratio), prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, and Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) were analyzed using logistic regression models.

RESULT

Of 378 patients who were included in this study, 180 were found to be with GDU. The proportion of cases requiring EI was significantly higher in those with GDU than in other causes except variceal bleeding (53.5 vs. 37.0%, p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that a history of GDU was an independent risk factor (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.06-3.00) in addition to BUN/Cr ratio (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03) and GBS (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.33).

CONCLUSION

A history of GDU was an independent risk factor for predicting the need for EI in UGIB in addition to BUN/Cr ratio and GBS.

Evaluation of scoring systems without endoscopic findings for predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Background

Risk scoring systems are used to evaluate patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). We compared Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS), and Pre-endoscopy Rockall score (Pre-E RS) for immediate application without endoscopic findings in predicting the need of interventions and the 30-day mortality in patients with UGIB.

Methods

Patients who visited the emergency room with UGIB from January 2007 to June 2016 were included. GBS, mGBS, and Pre-E RS were obtained for all patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the accuracy of the scoring systems to determine the need for interventions and 30-day mortality. Also, we investigated the potential cutoff scores for predicting 30-day mortality and the need for interventions.

Results

In predicting the need for interventions, GBS (AUC = 0.727) and mGBS (AUC = 0.733) outperformed Pre-E RS (AUC = 0.564, P < 0.0001). In predicting 30-day mortality, Pre-E RS (AUC = 0.929) outperformed GBS (AUC = 0.664, P < 0.0001) and mGBS (AUC = 0.652, P < 0.0001). Based on AUC analyses of sensitivities and specificities, the optimal cutoff mGBS and GBS for the need for interventions was 9 (70.71% sensitivity, 89.35% specificity) and 9 (73.57% sensitivity, 82.90% specificity) respectively, and optimal cutoff Pre-E RS for 30-day mortality was 4 (88.0% sensitivity, 97.52% specificity).

Conclusions

GBS and mGBS are considered to be moderately accurate in making an early decision about the need of interventions in patients with UGIB. Pre-E RS is considered to be highly accurate in early detection of patients at high risk for 30-day mortality without endoscopic findings. In addition, we suggested potential cutoff scores to predict the need of interventions for GBS and mGBS, and 30-day mortality for Pre-E RS. Further studies are needed to confirm the clinical applicability of results.

Validation of a Modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score for Risk Stratification of Patients with Suspected Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in an Accident and Emergency Department in Hong Kong

Objectives

To validate the use of a modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score (mGBS) for risk stratification of patients with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in an accident and emergency department in Hong Kong.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who attended the emergency department of the study centre from January 2014 to June 2014 who were subsequently admitted to surgical wards with suspected UGIB. High risk patients were considered to be those who required in-patient clinical interventions (blood transfusion, therapeutic endoscopy, angiographic embolisation, or surgery). The mGBS was calculated for each patient. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score were calculated.

Results

A total of 372 patients were included in the study. With an mGBS of 0 (low risk) for detecting the primary outcome, the sensitivity was 99.2% (95% CI, 95.6100%), and the specificity was 25.91 (95% CI 20.6-31.8%). The negative likelihood ratio was 0.031 (95% CI 0.004-0.2). The AUC was 0.90 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.93).

Conclusion

The modified Glasgow-Blatchford Score is a clinically useful tool for emergency physician to identify UGIB patients at low-risk of requiring in-hospital clinical interventions. (Hong Kong j.emerg.med. 2016;23:3-11)

Comparison of Risk Stratification Scores for Patients Presenting with Symptoms of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in the Emergency Department

Objective

To compare four scoring systems to predict outcomes in patients with symptoms of upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting to the emergency department.

Method

A single centered prospective cohort study. All adult patients presenting to the emergency department of the studying centre with haematemsis or tarry stool or coffee ground vomiting or coffee ground aspirate from nasogastric tube were included from February 2012 to April 2012. The outcome variables include mortality, length of stay in hospital, blood product transfusion and interventions for bleeding control. The AIMS65 score, pre-endoscopic Rockall score, Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) and the modified Glasgow Blatchford Score (mGBS) were evaluated. Diagnostic characteristics were presented and areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) curve were compared.

Results

A total of 129 patients were included in the study. 81 of them (62.8%) had upper endoscopy performed. The mortality rate was 3.1%. Initial haemoglobin level of <10 was an important factor in risk stratification. Validation of the 4 scoring systems showed GBS had highest sensitivities (98.3-100%) and negative predictive values (90-100%) for all outcome variables but could not achieve a good specificity and positive predictive values against the outcomes. Both GBS and modified GBS outperformed the other two scoring systems in the AUROC curves in predicting composite high-risk outcome, length of stay in hospital and blood transfusion.

Conclusion

GBS appeared the best scoring system in the emergency department for screening purpose and to stratify those high risk patients for admission and low risk patients for out-patient management. (Hong Kong j.emerg.med. 2016;23:199-209)

Initiation and Termination of Massive Transfusion Protocols: Current Strategies and Future Prospects

The advent of massive transfusion protocols (MTP) has had a significant positive impact on hemorrhaging trauma patient morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, societal MTP guidelines and individual MTPs at academic institutions continue to circulate opposing recommendations on topics critical to MTPs. This narrative review discusses up-to-date information on 2 such topics, the initiation and termination of an MTP. The discussion for each begins with a review of the recommendations and supporting literature presented by MTP guidelines from 3 prominent societies, the American Society of Anesthesiologists, the American College of Surgeons, and the task force for Advanced Bleeding Care in Trauma. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the main components within those recommendations. Societal recommendations on MTP initiation in hemorrhaging trauma patients emphasize the use of retrospectively validated massive transfusion (MT) prediction score, specifically, the Assessment of Blood Consumption and Trauma-Associated Severe Hemorrhage scores. Validation studies have shown that both scoring systems perform similarly. Both scores reliably identify patients that will not require an MT, while simultaneously overpredicting MT requirements. However, each scoring system has its unique advantages and disadvantages, and this review discusses how specific aspects of each scoring system can affect widespread applicability and statistical performance. In addition, we discuss the often overlooked topic of initiating MT in nontrauma patients and the specific tools physicians have to guide the MT initiation decision in this unique setting. Despite the serious complications that can arise with transfusion of large volumes of blood products, there is considerably less research pertinent to the topic of MTP termination. Societal recommendations on MTP termination emphasize applying clinical reasoning to identify patients who have bleeding source control and are adequately resuscitated. This review, however, focuses primarily on the recommendations presented by the Advanced Bleeding Care in Trauma's MTP guidelines that call for prompt termination of the algorithm-guided model of resuscitation and rapidly transitioning into a resuscitation model guided by laboratory test results. We also discuss the evidence in support of laboratory result-guided resuscitation and how recent literature on viscoelastic hemostatic assays, although limited, highlights the potential to achieve additional benefits from this method of resuscitation.

New insights on an old medical emergency: non-portal hypertension related upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a potentially life-threatening condition and is the most common medical emergency managed by gastroenterologists. Despite being one of the most antique medical problems, recent studies have been slowly changing the management of these patients, which should nowadays include not only initial resuscitation, but also risk stratification, pre-endoscopic therapy, endoscopy treatment, and post-procedure care. The aim of this paper is to review the extended approach to the patient with non-portal hypertension related UGIB.

Recent advances in the management of peptic ulcer bleeding

Acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage due to peptic ulcer bleeding remains an important cause of emergency presentation and hospital admission. Despite advances in many aspects of management, peptic ulcer bleeding is still associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Comprehensive international guidelines have been published, but advances as well as controversies continue to evolve. Important recent advances include the evidence supporting a more restrictive transfusion strategy aiming for a target haemoglobin of 70–90 g/l. Comparative studies have confirmed that the Glasgow–Blatchford score remains the most useful score for predicting the need for intervention as well as for identifying the lowest-risk patients suitable for outpatient management. New scores, including the AIMS65 and Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva score, may be more accurate in predicting mortality. Pre-endoscopy erythromycin appears to improve outcomes and is probably underused. High-dose oral proton pump inhibition (PPI) for 11 days after PPI infusion is advantageous in those with a Rockall score of 6 or more. Oral is as effective as parenteral iron at restoring haemoglobin levels after a peptic ulcer bleed and both are superior to placebo in this respect. Within endoscopic techniques, haemostatic powders and over-the-scope clips can be used when other methods have failed. A disposable Doppler probe appears to provide more accurate determination of both rebleeding risk and the success of endoscopic therapy than purely visual guidance. Non- Helicobacter pylori, non-aspirin/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug ulcers contribute an increasing percentage of bleeding peptic ulcers and are associated with a poor prognosis and high rebleeding rate. The optimal management of these ulcers remains to be determined.

The Performance of a Modified Glasgow Blatchford Score in Predicting Clinical Interventions in Patients with Acute Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Vietnamese Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To compare the performance of a modified Glasgow Blatchford score (mGBS) to the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score (RS) in predicting clinical interventions in Vietnamese patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB).

METHODS

A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted in five tertiary hospitals from May 2013 to February 2014. The mGBS, GBS, and pre-endoscopic RS scores were prospectively calculated for all patients. The accuracy of mGBS was compared with that of GBS and preendoscopic RS using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Clinical interventions were defined as blood transfusions, endoscopic or radiological intervention, or surgery.

RESULTS

There were 395 patients including 128 (32.4%) needing endoscopic treatment, 117 (29.6%) requiring blood transfusion and two (0.5%) needing surgery. In predicting the need for clinical intervention, the mGBS (AUC, 0.707) performed as well as the GBS (AUC, 0.708; p=0.87) and outperformed the pre-endoscopic RS (AUC, 0.594; p<0.001). However, none of these scores effectively excluded the need for endoscopic intervention at a threshold of 0.

CONCLUSIONS

mGBS performed as well as GBS and better than pre-endoscopic RS for predicting clinical interventions in Vietnamese patients with ANVUGIB. (Gut Liver 2016;10375- 381).