Asymmetric discounting in intertemporal choice: a query-theory account

Attribute latencies causally shape intertemporal decisions

Intertemporal choices - decisions that play out over time - pervade our life. Thus, how people make intertemporal choices is a fundamental question. Here, we investigate the role of attribute latency (the time between when people start to process different attributes) in shaping intertemporal preferences using five experiments with choices between smaller-sooner and larger-later rewards. In the first experiment, we identify attribute latencies using mouse-trajectories and find that they predict individual differences in choices, response times, and changes across time constraints. In the other four experiments we test the causal link from attribute latencies to choice, staggering the display of the attributes. This changes attribute latencies and intertemporal preferences. Displaying the amount information first makes people more patient, while displaying time information first does the opposite. These findings highlight the importance of intra-choice dynamics in shaping intertemporal choices and suggest that manipulating attribute latency may be a useful technique for nudging.

Approaching future rewards or waiting for them to arrive: Spatial representations of time and intertemporal choice

Our mental representation of the passage of time is structured by concepts of spatial motion, including an ego-moving perspective in which the self is perceived as approaching future events and a time-moving perspective in which future events are perceived as approaching the self. While previous research has found that processing spatial information in one's environment can preferentially activate either an ego-moving or time-moving temporal perspective, potential downstream impacts on everyday decision-making have received less empirical attention. Based on the idea people may feel closer to positive events they see themselves as actively approaching rather than passively waiting for, in this pre-registered study we tested the hypothesis that spatial primes corresponding to an ego-moving (vs. time-moving) perspective would attenuate temporal discounting by making future rewards feel more proximal. 599 participants were randomly assigned to one of three spatial prime conditions (ego-moving, time-moving, control) resembling map-based tasks people may engage with on digital devices, before completing measures of temporal perspective, perceived wait time, perceived control over time, and temporal discounting. Partly consistent with previous research, the results indicated that the time-moving prime successfully activated the intended temporal perspective-though the ego-moving prime did not. Contrary to our primary hypotheses, the spatial primes had no effect on either perceived wait time or temporal discounting. Processing spatial information in a map-based task therefore appears to influence how people conceptualise the passage of time, but there was no evidence for downstream effects on intertemporal preferences. Additionally, exploratory analysis indicated that greater perceived control over time was associated with lower temporal discounting, mediated by a reduction in perceived wait time, suggesting a possible area for future research into individual differences and interventions in intertemporal decision-making.

The effect of psychological distance on intertemporal choice of the reward processing: an eye-tracking investigation

This study employed eye-tracking technology to investigate how varying dimensions of psychological distance-temporal, probability, and social-affect intertemporal choice. Across three experiments, participants were asked to select between two intertemporal options while their eye movements were monitored. Findings revealed inconsistent impacts of different psychological distances on intertemporal decision-making. Increased temporal and social distances led to a preference for larger delayed rewards (Studies 1 and 3), whereas an increase in probability distance did not significantly alter choice preferences (Study 2). The research also highlighted a general pattern in information processing; as psychological distance widened, participants showed a tendency toward dimension-specific processing in making intertemporal decisions.

How do defaults and framing influence food choice? An intervention aimed at promoting plant-based choice in online menus

Nudging consumers towards plant-based foods by making these choices the default option is a promising strategy for effecting sustainable dietary change. In the hypothetical context of online food ordering in a Northern European country, we examined the underlying mechanisms and effectiveness of swapping the default in menus from meat to a plant-based meat alternative. Results showed that pre-selecting a plant-based option in the online setting was not enough to increase choice of plant-based meals alone. Rather, additionally framing the plant-based default as the more sustainable or tasty option was needed to significantly increase choice. While ease was unimportant and held constant in this online setting, endowment and implied endorsement were found to mediate default success such that the positive influence of endowment outweighed the (surprising) negative effect via endorsement. In contrast to general theoretical expectations of default nudges, an endorsement by an online food provider is unlikely to encourage plant-based choices.

A query theory account of the attraction effect

We provide novel support for Query Theory, a reason-based decision framework, extending it to multialternative choices and applying it to the classic phenomenon known as the attraction effect. In Experiment 1 (N = 261), we generalised the two key metrics used in Query Theory from binary to multialternative choices and found that reasons supporting the target option were generated earlier and in greater quantity than those supporting the competitor, as predicted by the theory. In Experiment 2 (N = 703), we investigated the causal relationships between reasoning and choices by exogenously manipulating the order in which participants generated their reasons. As predicted, the size of the attraction effect was a function of this query order manipulation. We also introduced a bidirectional reason coding protocol to measure the valence of reasons, which confirmed support for Query Theory. We suggest the Query Theory framework can be useful for studying the high-level deliberation processes behind multialternative choices.

The joint effect of framing and defaults on choice behavior

The framing effect leads people to prefer a sure alternative over a risky one (risk aversion) when alternatives are described as potential gains compared to a context-dependent reference point. The reverse (risk propensity) happens when the same alternatives are described as potential losses. The default effect is the tendency to prefer a preselected alternative over other non-preselected given options, without facilitating nor incentivizing the choice. These two effects have mainly been studied separately. Here we provided novel empirical evidence of additive effects due to the application of both framing and default within the same decision problem in a large sample size (N = 960). In the baseline condition, where no default was provided, we measured the proportion of risky choices in life-or-death and financial decisions both presented in terms of potential gains or losses following the structure of the Asian disease problem. In the sure default condition, the same layout was proposed with a flag on the sure option, whereas in the risky default condition, the flag was on the risky option. In both default conditions, we asked participants whether they wanted to change the preselected option. Overall, the comparison between these conditions revealed three distinct main effects: (i) a classic framing effect, (ii) a larger risk propensity in the life-or-death scenario than in the financial one, and (iii) a larger default effect when the flag was on the risky, rather than on the sure, option. Therefore, we conclude that default options can enhance risk propensity. Finally, individual beliefs about the source of the default significantly moderated the strength of the effect. Underlying mechanisms and practical implications are discussed considering prominent theories in this field.

Information acquisition and decision strategies in intertemporal choice

Intertemporal decision models describe choices between outcomes with different delays. While these models mainly focus on predicting choices, they make implicit assumptions about how people acquire and process information. A link between information processing and choice model predictions is necessary for a complete mechanistic account of decision making. We establish this link by fitting 18 intertemporal choice models to experimental datasets with both choice and information acquisition data. First, we show that choice models have highly correlated fits: people that behave according to one model also behave according to other models that make similar information processing assumptions. Second, we develop and fit an attention model to information acquisition data. Critically, the attention model parameters predict which type of intertemporal choice models best describes a participant's choices. Overall, our results relate attentional processes to models of intertemporal choice, providing a stepping stone towards a complete mechanistic account of intertemporal decision making.

Thinking about neither death nor poverty affects delay discounting, but episodic foresight does: Three replications of the effects of priming on time preferences

We outline three attempts to replicate experiments that reported priming effects on time preferences measured by delay discounting. Experiment 1 tested the claim that images of poverty prime impulsive choice in people from less affluent backgrounds compared with people from more affluent backgrounds. Experiment 2 tested the claim that mortality salience-thinking about death-primes people to place more value on the future than people who thought about dental surgery. Experiment 3 tested the claim that an episodic foresight manipulation primes greater discounting than no episodic foresight. Experiments 1 and 2 failed to replicate the effects of priming on discount rates. Experiment 3 was a successful and very close replication of the effect of episodic foresight on discount rates.

Complex economic decisions from simple neurocognitive processes: the role of interactive attention

Neurocognitive theories of value-based choice propose that people additively accumulate choice attributes when making decisions. These theories cannot explain the emergence of complex multiplicative preferences such as those assumed by prospect theory and other economic models. We investigate an interactive attention mechanism, according to which attention to attributes (like payoffs) depends on other attributes (like probabilities) attended to previously. We formalize this mechanism using a Markov attention model combined with an accumulator decision process, and test our model on eye-tracking and mouse-tracking data in risky choice. Our tests show that interactive attention is necessary to make good choices, that most participants display interactive attention and that allowing for interactive attention in accumulation-based decision models improves their predictions. By equipping established decision models with sophisticated attentional dynamics, we extend these models to describe complex economic choice, and in the process, we unify two prominent theoretical approaches to studying value-based decision making.

The effect of incentives on intertemporal choice: Choice, confidence, and eye movements

Despite various studies examining intertemporal choice with hypothetical rewards due to problematic real reward delivery, there remains no substantial evidence on the effect of the incentives on the decision confidence and cognitive process in intertemporal choice and no comprehensive exploration on the loss domain. Hence, this study conducts an eye-tracking experiment to examine the effect of incentive approach and measure participants' decision confidence using a between-subject design in both gain and loss domains. Results replicated previous findings which show incentives do not affect intertemporal choice in the gain domain. In contrast, in the loss domain, participants in the incentivized group were more likely to choose the larger-later options than those in the non-incentivized group. Furthermore, the decision confidence and the mean fixation duration differed between the incentivized and non-incentivized groups in both gain and loss domains. These findings allow for a better understanding of the effect of incentives on intertemporal choice and provide valuable information for the design of incentives in future intertemporal experiments.

Waiting is painful: The impact of anticipated dread on negative discounting in the loss domain

According to the positive time-discounting assumption of intertemporal decision-making, people prefer to undergo negative events in the future rather than in the present. However, negative discounting has been identified in the intertemporal choice and loss domains, which refers to people’s preference to experience negative events earlier rather than later. Studies have validated and supported the "anticipated dread" as an explanation for negative discounting. This study again explored the effect of anticipated dread on intertemporal choice using content analysis; that is, having participants identify anticipated dread among reasons for negative discounting. This study also validated the effect of anticipated dread on negative discounting by manipulating anticipated dread. This study adds empirical and direct evidence for the role of anticipated dread in negative discounting.

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts

Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital-equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth's current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.

The cancellation heuristic in intertemporal choice shifts people's time preferences

Building on past research in risky decision making, the present research investigated whether the cancellation heuristic is evident in intertemporal choice. Specifically, the cancellation heuristic posits that whenever choice options are partitioned into multiple components, people ignore seemingly identical components and compare the non-identical components. We nudged people to employ the cancellation heuristic by partitioning both the smaller earlier reward and the larger later reward into a seemingly identical component and a non-identical component. Given diminishing marginal utility, we hypothesized that people would perceive an identical difference between the smaller earlier reward and the larger later reward as being subjectively greater when both amounts are smaller in magnitude, thereby increasing the relative attractiveness of the larger later reward in the partition condition. We conducted four studies, including two incentive-compatible lab experiments, one incentive-compatible lab-in-the-field experiment, and one survey study using choices among both gains and losses. We consistently found that this choice architecture intervention significantly increased people's likelihood of choosing the larger later reward. Furthermore, we provide evidence of the underlying mechanism-people's intertemporal decisions shifted to a greater extent in the cancellation condition, particularly if their marginal utility diminished faster. The findings indicate that two features of human psychology-diminishing marginal utility and the cancellation heuristic-can be simultaneously utilized to nudge people to make decisions that would be better for them in the long run.

Fixed Attributes and Discounting Behavior

Delay discounting tasks present alternatives that differ in two attributes: amount and delay. Typically, choice is modeled by application of a discount function to each option, allowing alternative-wise comparison. However, if participants make decisions by comparing attributes, manipulations that affect the salience of either attribute may affect patience. In Experiment 1, participants completed one block of trials in which amount was a fixed attribute (constant across trials), and another in which delay was fixed. Consistent with the hypothesis that the varying attribute would be more salient, participants exhibited less patience in the amount-fixed condition. Moreover, this effect was larger for participants who responded more quickly when making choices that favored the varying attribute. In Experiment 2, these findings were extended by adding trial blocks with a working memory dual task. We replicated the fixed-attribute effect, along with the aforementioned association with reaction time. Contrary to expectation, the fixed-attribute effect was not larger when participants were under working memory load. Instead, working memory load was associated with more patient responses, which may be related to idiosyncrasies of the task including the absence of immediate rewards. Overall, results suggest a fixed-attribute effect on patience, which is consistent with a multi-attribute decision framework.

Pictures Matter: How Images of Projected Sea-Level Rise Shape Long-Term Sustainable Design Decisions for Infrastructure Systems

Community input matters in long-term decisions related to climate change, including the development of public infrastructure. In order to assess the effect of different ways of informing the public about infrastructure projects, a sample of people in the United States (n = 630) was provided with a case study concerning the redevelopment of the San Diego Airport. Participants received the same written information about the projected future condition of the airport. In addition, participants received images either portraying current conditions or portraying conditions in 2100 based on NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) sea-level rise data. Participants were asked to choose 7 out of 21 design options to implement in the redevelopment project. The framework used for the design options stemmed from the Envision rating system. We analyzed the participants’ selection of the credits using generalized linear mixed models. Those that received the images portraying the future were significantly more likely to select design options that would reduce the risk of climate change and flooding. Images portraying sea-level rise had different effects depending on participant demographics. Such images increased the selection of design elements related to the climate and risk for participants identifying as female or as Democrat. For participants identifying as male or as Republican, the same images increased their selection of design elements to enhance community public space. The results demonstrate the positive effects of portraying the future in terms of encouraging focus on long-term sustainable design decisions for infrastructure systems.

Filling the gaps: Cognitive control as a critical lens for understanding mechanisms of value-based decision-making

While often seeming to investigate rather different problems, research into value-based decision making and cognitive control have historically offered parallel insights into how people select thoughts and actions. While the former studies how people weigh costs and benefits to make a decision, the latter studies how they adjust information processing to achieve their goals. Recent work has highlighted ways in which decision-making research can inform our understanding of cognitive control. Here, we provide the complementary perspective: how cognitive control research has informed understanding of decision-making. We highlight three particular areas of research where this critical interchange has occurred: (1) how different types of goals shape the evaluation of choice options, (2) how people use control to adjust the ways they make their decisions, and (3) how people monitor decisions to inform adjustments to control at multiple levels and timescales. We show how adopting this alternate viewpoint offers new insight into the determinants of both decisions and control; provides alternative interpretations for common neuroeconomic findings; and generates fruitful directions for future research.

"Carpe Diem?": Disjunction Effect of Incidental Affect on Intertemporal Choice

Incidental affect has an important impact on intertemporal choice (IC). This research aimed to test how positive incidental affect influences IC and its underlying mechanisms. We assumed that positive incidental affect may have a disjunction effect on IC that includes or excludes immediate time. Moreover, we examined the role of time perception for the effect of affect on IC. In Study 1, after undergoing affect priming by video clips, participants completed the IC task using a multiple staircase paradigm. Using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling, we estimated the discount rate parameter by distinguishing “immediate” and “non-immediate” conditions of IC. The participants’ time perception was also measured. In Study 2, apart from the choice preference of IC, we additionally investigated the differences in the participants’ attention to delay and reward attributes before decision making. The results of the two studies indicated that positive incidental affect leads to longer time perception (Study 1) and prior and more attention to the delay attribute of IC (Study 2), which leads individuals to prefer immediate options in the IC (Studies 1 and 2). Moreover, there is a disjunction effect of affect; in other words, the incidental affect did not influence IC excluding immediate time (Studies 1 and 2). This study improves our understanding of the disjunctive effect and its mechanism of inducing a positive incidental affect on IC and thus provides a new perspective on how related decision making can be improved.

Mixing memory and desire: How memory reactivation supports deliberative decision-making

Memories affect nearly every aspect of our mental life. They allow us to both resolve uncertainty in the present and to construct plans for the future. Recently, renewed interest in the role memory plays in adaptive behavior has led to new theoretical advances and empirical observations. We review key findings, with particular emphasis on how the retrieval of many kinds of memories affects deliberative action selection. These results are interpreted in a sequential inference framework, in which reinstatements from memory serve as "samples" of potential action outcomes. The resulting model suggests a central role for the dynamics of memory reactivation in determining the influence of different kinds of memory in decisions. We propose that representation-specific dynamics can implement a bottom-up "product of experts" rule that integrates multiple sets of action-outcome predictions weighted based on their uncertainty. We close by reviewing related findings and identifying areas for further research. This article is categorized under: Psychology > Reasoning and Decision Making Neuroscience > Cognition Neuroscience > Computation.

Influence of memory processes on choice-consistency

Choice-consistency is considered a hallmark of rational value-based choice. However, because the cognitive apparatus supporting decision-making is imperfect, real decision-makers often show some degree of choice inconsistency. Cognitive models are necessary to complement idealized choice axioms with attention, perception and memory processes. Specifically, compelling theoretical work suggests that the (imperfect) retention of choice-relevant memories might be important for choice-consistency, but this hypothesis has not been tested directly. We used a novel multi-attribute visual choice paradigm to experimentally test the influence of memory retrieval of exemplars on choice-consistency. Our manipulation check confirmed that our retention interval manipulation successfully reduced memory representation strength. Given this, we found strong evidence against our hypothesis that choice-consistency decreases with increasing retention time. However, quality controls indicated that the choice-consistency of our participants was non-discernable from random behaviour. In addition, an exploratory analysis showed essentially no test-retest reliability of choice-consistency between two observations. Taken together, this suggests the presence of a floor effect in our data and, thus, low data quality for conclusively evaluating our hypotheses. Further exploration tentatively suggested a high difficulty of discriminating between the choice objects driving this floor effect.

Are Impulsive Decisions Always Irrational? An Experimental Investigation of Impulsive Decisions in the Domains of Gains and Losses

Intertemporal choices are very prevalent in daily life, ranging from simple, mundane decisions to highly consequential decisions. In this context, thinking about the future and making sound decisions are crucial to promoting mental and physical health, as well as a financially sustainable lifestyle. In the present study, we set out to investigate some of the possible underlying mechanisms, such as cognitive factors and emotional states, that promote future-oriented decisions. In a cross-sectional experimental study, we used a gain and a loss version of an intertemporal monetary choices task. Our main behavioural result indicated that people are substantially more impulsive over smaller and sooner monetary losses compared to equivalent gains. In addition, for both decisional domains, significant individual difference predictors emerged, indicating that intertemporal choices are sensitive to the affective and cognitive parameters. By focusing on the cognitive and emotional individual factors that influence impulsive decisions, our study could constitute a building block for successful future intervention programs targeted at mental and physical health issues, including gambling behaviour.

Visual attention and time preference reversals

Time preference reversal refers to systematic inconsistencies between preferences and bids for intertemporal options. From the two eye-tracking studies (N1 = 60, N2 = 110), we examined the underlying mechanisms of time preference reversal. We replicated the reversal effect in which individuals facing a pair of intertemporal options choose the smaller-sooner option but assign a higher value to the larger-later one. Results revealed that the mean fixation duration and the proportion of gaze time on the outcome attribute varied across the choice and bid tasks. In addition, time preference reversals correlated with individual differences in maximizing tendencies. Findings support the contingent weighting hypothesis and strategy compatibility hypothesis and allow for improved theoretical understanding of the potential mechanisms and processes involved in time preference reversals.

Resolving Conflicts Between People and Over Time in the Transformation Toward Sustainability: A Framework of Interdependent Conflicts

Transformative and mutually beneficial solutions require decision-makers to reconcile present- and future interests (i.e., intrapersonal conflicts over time) and to align them with those of other decision-makers (i.e., interpersonal conflicts between people). Despite the natural co-occurrence of intrapersonal and interpersonal conflicts in the transformation toward sustainability, both types of conflicts have been studied predominantly in isolation. In this conceptual article, we breathe new life into the traditional dialog between individual decision-making and negotiation research and address critical psychological barriers to the transformation toward sustainability. In particular, we argue that research on intrapersonal and interpersonal conflicts should be tightly integrated to provide a richer understanding of the interplay between these conflicts. We propose a novel, unifying framework of interdependent conflicts that systematically structures this interplay, and we analyze how complex interdependencies between the social (i.e., conflict between decision-makers) and temporal (i.e., conflict within a decision-maker) dimensions pose fundamental psychological barriers to mutually beneficial solutions. Since challenges to conflict resolution in the transformation toward sustainability emerge not only between individual decision-makers but also frequently between groups of decision-makers, we scale the framework up to the level of social groups and thereby provide an interdependent-conflicts perspective on the interplay between intra- and intergenerational conflicts. Overall, we propose simple, testable propositions, identify intervention approaches, and apply them to transition management. By analyzing the challenges faced by negotiating parties during interdependent conflicts and highlighting potential intervention approaches, we contribute to the transformation toward sustainability. Finally, we discuss implications of the framework and point to avenues for future research.

Delay discounting and neurocognitive correlates among inner city adolescents with and without family history of substance use disorder

Adolescents with a family history (FH+) of substance use disorder (SUD) are at a greater risk for SUD, suggested to be partly due to the transmission of behavioral impulsivity. We used a delay discounting task to compare impulsivity in decision-making and its associated brain functioning among FH+ and FH - minority adolescents. Participants chose between Smaller Sooner (SS) and Larger Later (LL) rewards. The SS was available immediately (Now trials) or in the future (Not-Now trials), allowing for greater differentiation between impulsive decisions. The FH+ group showed greater impatience by responding SS more frequently than the FH - group, only on the Now trials, and even when the relative reward differences (RRD) increased. Surprisingly, there were no differences in brain activity between the groups. Combined, the groups showed greater reward activity during the Now vs. Not-Now trials in medial prefrontal/anterior cingulate, posterior cingulate, precuneus, and inferior frontal gyrus (i.e., an immediacy effect). As the RRD increased activation in the reward network decreased, including the striatum, possibly reflecting easy decision-making. These results indicate that risk for SUD, seen behaviorally among FH+ adolescents, may not yet be associated with discernable brain changes, suggesting that early intervention has the potential to reduce this risk.

“I want it now!” Intertemporal Choice Through the Lens of Valence Weighting Bias

The current research presents a novel perspective regarding individual differences in intertemporal choice preferences. We postulate that such differences are partly rooted in individuals’ valence weighting proclivities—their characteristic manner of weighting positive and negative valence when constructing an initial evaluation. Importantly, valence weighting bias should predict intertemporal choice most strongly (a) for those who are relatively low in trait self-control and (b) when the magnitude of the available rewards is relatively small, because these two factors are associated with lesser motivation/resources to deliberate extensively about one's decision. More specifically, we propose that those with a more positive weighting bias give greater weight to the clearly positive immediate reward that is under consideration, and under these conditions, the resulting appraisal shapes choice more strongly. Using a performance-based measure of valence weighting tendencies, a hypothetical intertemporal choice task, and a self-report measure of trait self-control, we provide evidence for our hypothesis.

Young Adult Human Papillomavirus and Influenza Vaccine Coverage: A Comparison Across College Enrollment Status

To determine human papillomavirus and influenza vaccine coverage among young adults in the US and assess differences in vaccine uptake by college enrollment status, we conducted an online survey of young adults aged 18-26 (n = 417) using Survey Monkey, with recruitment occurring through Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) platform. We collected data on self-reported preventive health behaviors, including vaccine receipt, current college enrollment status, and other demographics. Overall, 49% of participants reported receiving at least one dose of human papillomavirus vaccine and 57% reported receiving at least one influenza vaccine over the past three years. Vaccine coverage estimates did not differ between college-enrolled and non-enrolled respondents. Low vaccine coverage rates demonstrate the need to improve vaccine strategies for young adults. The strongest predictor of vaccine receipt was having received a provider recommendation. There does not appear to be healthcare utilization differences related to ability to access care through student health or community-based settings. Additional research is needed to develop interventions to improve vaccination coverage among young adults, both currently enrolled and not enrolled in college.

Risky choice frames shift the structure and emotional valence of internal arguments: A query theory account of the unusual disease problem

We examine a Query Theory account of risky choice framing effects — when risky choices are framed as a gain, people are generally risky averse but, when an equivalent choice is framed as a loss, people are risk seeking. Consistent with Query Theory, frames affected the structure of participants’ arguments: gain frame participants listed arguments favoring the certain option earlier and more often than loss frame participants. These argumentative shifts mediated framing effects; manipulating participants initial arguments attenuated them. While emotions, as measured by PANAS, were related to frames but not related to choices, an exploratory text analysis of the affective valence of arguments was related to both. Compared to loss-frame participants, gain-frame participants expressed more positive sentiment towards the certain option than the risky option. This relative-sentiment index predicted choices by itself but not when included with structure of arguments. Further, manipulated initial arguments did not significantly affect participant’s relative sentiment. Prior to changing choices, risky choice frames alter both the structure and emotional valence of participants’ internal arguments.

Measuring Time Preferences

We review research that measures time preferences-i.e., preferences over intertemporal tradeoffs. We distinguish between studies using financial flows, which we call "money earlier or later" (MEL) decisions and studies that use time-dated consumption/effort. Under different structural models, we show how to translate what MEL experiments directly measure (required rates of return for financial flows) into a discount function over utils. We summarize empirical regularities found in MEL studies and the predictive power of those studies. We explain why MEL choices are driven in part by some factors that are distinct from underlying time preferences.

Association of cognitive biases with human papillomavirus vaccine hesitancy: a cross-sectional study

Given the link between vaccine hesitancy and vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks, it is critical to examine the cognitive processes that contribute to the development of vaccine hesitancy, especially among parents of adolescents. We conducted a secondary analysis of baseline data from a two-phase randomized trial on human papillomavirus to investigate how vaccine hesitancy and intent to vaccinate are associated with six decision-making factors: base rate neglect, conjunction fallacy, sunk cost bias, present bias, risk aversion, and information avoidance. We recruited 1,413 adults residing in the United States with at least one daughter aged 9-17 years old through an online survey on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Vaccine hesitancy, intent to vaccinate, and susceptibility to cognitive biases was measured through a series of brief questionnaires. 1,400 participants were in the final analyzed sample. Most participants were white (74.1%), female (71.6%), married (75.3%), and had a college or graduate/professional education (88.8%). Conjunction fallacy, sunk cost bias, information avoidance, and present bias may be associated with vaccine hesitancy. Intent to vaccinate may be associated with information avoidance. These results suggest that cognitive biases play a role in developing parental vaccine hesitancy and vaccine-related behavior.

Foreign language effect in decision-making: How foreign is it?

It has been shown that decisions and moral judgments differ when made using native languages compared to foreign languages. Cross-linguistic differences appeared in foreign languages that monolinguals typically acquired in school and used neither routinely nor extensively. We replicated these differences with two populations of proficient, native bilinguals (Italian-Venetian; Italian-Bergamasque). Venetian and Bergamasque are spoken in households and informal circles, unlike Italian, which is also used in more formal contexts. The findings reported in foreign languages for the Asian Disease Problem and the Footbridge Dilemma were reproduced in Venetian and Bergamasque. Our results show that language effects on decision-making and moral judgments are not restricted to foreign languages. The explanation proposed for foreign languages of cross-linguistic differences in emotion responses does not apply to our proficient, native bilinguals, who showed emotion responses of equal intensity in their languages. We propose that the contexts in which bilinguals use a language - either native, regional or foreign - could affect decisions.

Bad Things Come to Those Who Do Not Wait: Temporal Discounting Is Associated With Compulsive Overeating, Eating Disorder Psychopathology and Food Addiction

The tendency to act on immediate pleasure-driven desires, due to the devaluation of future rewards [a process known as temporal discounting (TD)], has been associated with substance use disorders (SUD) and with conditions characterised by compulsive overeating. The study involved a large inclusive participant sample (i.e., no diagnostic or exclusion criteria were applied). They were recruited/assessed online and we investigated whether TD was related to compulsive overeating and associated problems. Participants [N = 432, (48 males)] completed an online survey, which included a hypothetical monetary TD task, the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire (EDE-Q), the Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS) and the Depression Anxiety and Stress Scales (DASS). TD correlated with frequency of compulsive overeating and compensatory behaviours, with eating disorder psychopathology, with scores on the YFAS, and with body mass index (BMI). As our study shows that elevated rates of TD are associated with a range of behaviours/measures, we propose that it is more likely that elevated TD rates are a predisposing factor rather than a consequence of the behaviour, i.e., elevated rates of TD contribute to pathological eating-related behaviours; however, a bi-directional explanation is also possible. Future research should investigate whether interventions aimed at reducing TD have clinical potential for treating problematic eating behaviours.

This way, please: Uncovering the directional effects of attribute translations on decision making

The translation of choice attributes into more meaningful information (e.g., from kWh to costs) is a form of choice architecture that is thought to facilitate decision making by providing decision signposts that activate personally relevant but latent objectives and guide decisions towards options that are most congruent with the activated objectives. Here, we investigated the psychological mechanisms that underlie and drive the directional effects of attribute translations on decision making. Across two choice experiments (total N = 973), we provide empirical support for our proposition that attribute translations operate via pre-decisional attention processes. Specifically, we demonstrate that attribute translations focus individuals’ attention on choice options that are most congruent with the concerns highlighted by translations, and that this attentional prioritization of alternatives predicts choice. In addition to the cognitive mechanisms underlying attribute translations, we highlight the choice architectural principles that moderate the effectiveness of translations. We show that the directional effects of attribute translations are driven by the information that translations provide rather than by contextual changes in the decision environment. In line with previous research on evaluability, we find the effectiveness of attribute translations to depend on information format, with translations conveying evaluative information having a larger impact on decision making than translations providing numerical information. The present study is among the first to investigate the decision making processes underlying a choice architectural intervention. It provides insights into the mechanisms that drive and facilitate the signpost effect and renders recommendations for the implementation of attribute translations in policy making.

Behavioral trainings and manipulations to reduce delay discounting: A systematic review

In everyday decision-making, individuals make trade-offs between short-term and long-term benefits or costs. Depending on many factors, individuals may choose to wait for larger delayed reward, yet in other situations they may prefer the smaller, immediate reward. In addition to within-subject variation in the short-term versus long-term reward trade-off, there are also interindividual differences in delay discounting (DD), which have been shown to be quite stable. The extent to which individuals discount the value of delayed rewards turns out to be associated with important health and disorder-related outcomes: the more discounting, the more unhealthy or problematic choices. This has led to the hypothesis that DD can be conceptualized as trans-disease process. The current systematic review presents an overview of behavioral trainings and manipulations that have been developed to reduce DD in human participants aged 12 years or older. Manipulation studies mostly contain one session and measure DD directly after the manipulation. Training studies add a multiple session training component that is not per se related to DD, in between two DD task measurements. Ninety-eight studies (151 experiments) were identified that tested behavioral trainings and manipulations to decrease DD. Overall, results indicated that DD can be decreased, showing that DD is profoundly context dependent and changeable. Most promising avenues to pursue in future research seem to be acceptance-based/mindfulness-based trainings, and even more so manipulations involving a future orientation. Limitations and recommendations are discussed to identify the mechanistic processes that allow for changes in discount rate and behavior accordingly.

Sweet Nothings

Abstract. Prior research has suggested that circulating levels of glucose in the bloodstream help to determine success at self-control. However, this idea has been challenged on multiple grounds. The current research added new evidence to the debate by testing (1) the extent to which exercising self-control reduces blood glucose levels, (2) whether consuming glucose, rinsing the mouth with glucose, or consuming aspartame (a sugar substitute) increases blood glucose levels, and (3) the extent to which measured blood glucose levels relate to emotional responding, delay discounting, and cognitive control, respectively. We found no evidence that blood glucose levels influence or are influenced by self-control.

"Incentive hope" and the nature of impulsivity in low-socioeconomic-status individuals

Low-income environments have been associated with greater levels of impulsive behavior, which contribute to the higher debt and obesity rates that further perpetuate current wealth and health disparities. In this commentary, we describe how this might be explained by an appeal to "incentive hope" and the motivational drive toward consumption triggered by the future uncertainty these groups face.

Amount and time exert independent influences on intertemporal choice

Intertemporal choices involve trade-offs between the value of rewards and the delay before those rewards are experienced. Canonical intertemporal choice models such as hyperbolic discounting assume that reward amount and time until delivery are integrated within each option prior to comparison1,2. An alternative view posits that intertemporal choice reflects attribute-wise processes in which amount and time attributes are compared separately3-6. Here, we use multi-attribute drift diffusion modelling (DDM) to show that attribute-wise comparison represents the choice process better than option-wise comparison for intertemporal choice in a young adult population. We find that, while accumulation rates for amount and time information are uncorrelated, the difference between those rates predicts individual differences in patience. Moreover, patient individuals incorporate amount earlier than time into the decision process. Using eye tracking, we link these modelling results to attention, showing that patience results from a rapid, attribute-wise process that prioritizes amount over time information. Thus, we find converging evidence that distinct evaluation processes for amount and time determine intertemporal financial choices. Because intertemporal decisions in the lab have been linked to failures of patience ranging from insufficient saving to addiction7-13, understanding individual differences in the choice process is important for developing more effective interventions.

Worth-based choice: giving an offered smaller pear an even greater fictional value

Choices between options represented in a multidimensional space, in which each dimension signifies a distinct attribute describing the objects, are presumably guided by the principle of value maximization. However, the current study assumes that in a real-world setting, those who are able to imagine things that do not actually exist could modify the multidimensional space by self-generating an unoffered but fictional dimension. We define the utility (Uv) assigned by the decision makers to the options on the offered/given dimension as value (v[x]) and the utility (Uw) on the self-generated/fictional dimension as worth (w[xc]). Our series of experiments demonstrated that an option with a greater value established strictly on that given set of dimensions might not necessarily be chosen (which contradicted the principle of value maximization). Choosing an option with less value (i.e. giving away the bigger pear) behavior can be described and explained by the “worth-based choice” approach, as people behave to select the option with the highest worth rather than that with the highest value. We are optimistic that the resulting findings will facilitate our understanding of the beauty of such a “one step further” choice and assist us in understanding the following: the ability to further generate a fictional dimension and to assign a delayed utility (worth) to the options on the fictional dimension, and to make a worth-based choice, which could eventually be taken as the operational definition to measure the degree of “fiction-generating ability”, as proposed by Harari ( 2014 ).

Can delay discounting deliver on the promise of RDoC?

The National Institute of Mental Health launched the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) initiative to better understand dimensions of behavior and identify targets for treatment. Examining dimensions across psychiatric illnesses has proven challenging, as reliable behavioral paradigms that are known to engage specific neural circuits and translate across diagnostic populations are scarce. Delay discounting paradigms seem to be an exception: they are useful for understanding links between neural systems and behavior in healthy individuals, with potential for assessing how these mechanisms go awry in psychiatric illnesses. This article reviews relevant literature on delay discounting (or the rate at which the value of a reward decreases as the delay to receipt increases) in humans, including methods for examining it, its putative neural mechanisms, and its application in psychiatric research. There exist rigorous and reproducible paradigms to evaluate delay discounting, standard methods for calculating discount rate, and known neural systems probed by these paradigms. Abnormalities in discounting have been associated with psychopathology ranging from addiction (with steep discount rates indicating relative preference for immediate rewards) to anorexia nervosa (with shallow discount rates indicating preference for future rewards). The latest research suggests that delay discounting can be manipulated in the laboratory. Extensively studied in cognitive neuroscience, delay discounting assesses a dimension of behavior that is important for decision-making and is linked to neural substrates and to psychopathology. The question now is whether manipulating delay discounting can yield clinically significant changes in behavior that promote health. If so, then delay discounting could deliver on the RDoC promise.