Paying the extinction debt in southern Wisconsin forest understories

Residents manage dynamic plant communities: Change over time in urban vegetation

Introduction

Integrated social and ecological processes shape urban plant communities, but the temporal dynamics and potential for change in these managed communities have rarely been explored. In residential yards, which cover about 40% of urban land area, individuals make decisions that control vegetation outcomes. These decisions may lead to relatively static plant composition and structure, as residents seek to expend little effort to maintain stable landscapes. Alternatively, residents may actively modify plant communities to meet their preferences or address perceived problems, or they may passively allow them to change. In this research, we ask, how and to what extent does residential yard vegetation change over time?

Methods

We conducted co-located ecological surveys of yards (in 2008, 2018, and 2019) and social surveys of residents (in 2018) in four diverse neighborhoods of Phoenix, Arizona.

Results

94% of residents had made some changes to their front or back yards since moving in. On average, about 60% of woody vegetation per yard changed between 2008 and 2018, though the number of species present did not differ significantly. In comparison, about 30% of woody vegetation changed in native Sonoran Desert reference areas over 10 years. In yards, about 15% of woody vegetation changed on average in a single year, with up to 90% change in some yards. Greater turnover was observed for homes that were sold, indicating a “pulse” of management. Additionally, we observed greater vegetation turnover in the two older, lawn-dominated neighborhoods surveyed despite differences in neighborhood socioeconomic factors.

Discussion

These results indicate that residential plant communities are dynamic over time. Neighborhood age and other characteristics may be important drivers of change, while socioeconomic status neither promotes nor inhibits change at the neighborhood scale. Our findings highlight an opportunity for management interventions, wherein residents may be open to making conservation-friendly changes if they are already altering the composition of their yards.

Urban biotic homogenization: Approaches and knowledge gaps

Urbanization is restructuring ecosystems at an unprecedented pace, with complex and profound consequences for life on Earth. One of the hypothesized trajectories of urban ecosystems and species communities is biotic homogenization, possibly leading to very similar species assemblages in cities across the globe. Urbanization can, however, also have the opposite effect: biotic diversification, with cities, at least at the local scale, becoming biologically more diverse, mainly as a consequence of high species introduction rates and habitat diversification. Applying the hierarchy-of-hypotheses approach, we systematically map and structure the comprehensive body of literature on the urban biotic homogenization (UBH) hypothesis, comprising 225 individual studies (i.e., tests of the hypothesis) retrieved from 145 publications. The UBH hypothesis is studied at multiple levels with a multitude of approaches and underlying assumptions. We show that UBH is generally used with two very different connotations: about half of the studies investigated a potential increase in community similarity across cities, whereas the other half investigated biotic homogenization within cities, the latter being supported more frequently. We also found strong research biases: (1) a taxonomic bias towards birds and plants, (2) a bias towards small and medium distances (<5000 km) in comparisons across cities, (3) a dominance of studies substituting space for time versus true temporal studies, (4) a strong focus on terrestrial versus aquatic systems, (5) more extraurban (including periurban) areas than natural or rural ecosystems for comparison to urban systems, (6) a bias towards taxonomic versus functional, phylogenetic, and temporal homogenization, and (7) more studies undertaken in Europe and North America than in other continents. The overall level of empirical support for the UBH hypothesis was mixed, with 55% of the studies reporting supporting evidence. Results significantly differed when a natural/nature reserve, an extraurban, or rural/agricultural area served as reference to infer biotic homogenization, with homogenization being detected least frequently when urban systems were compared to agricultural, i.e., other anthropogenically influenced, study sites. We provide an evidence map and a bibliographic network and identify key references on UBH with the goal to enhance accessibility and orientation for future research on this topic.

Unprecedented plant species loss after a decade in fragmented subtropical Chaco Serrano forests

Current biodiversity loss is mostly caused by anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change, and resource exploitation. Measuring the balance of species loss and gain in remaining fragmented landscapes throughout time entails a central research challenge. We resurveyed in 2013 plant species richness in the same plots of a previous sampling conducted in 2003 across 18 forest fragments of different sizes of the Chaco Serrano forest in Argentina. While the area of these forest remnants was kept constant, their surrounding forest cover changed over this time period. We compared plant species richness of both sampling years and calculated the proportion of species loss and gain at forest edges and interiors. As in 2003, we found a positive relationship between fragment area and plant richness in 2013 and both years showed a similar slope. However, we detected a net decrease of 24% of species’ richness across all forest fragments, implying an unprecedentedly high rate and magnitude of species loss driven mainly by non-woody, short-lived species. There was a higher proportion of lost and gained species at forest edges than in forest interiors. Importantly, fragment area interacted with percent change in surrounding forest cover to explain the proportion of species lost. Small forest fragments showed a relatively constant proportion of species loss regardless of any changes in surrounding forest cover, whereas in larger fragments the proportion of species lost increased when surrounding forest cover decreased. We show that despite preserving fragment area, habitat quality and availability in the surroundings is of fundamental importance in shaping extinction and immigration dynamics of plant species at any given forest remnant. Because the Chaco Serrano forest has already lost 94% of its original cover, we argue that plant extinctions will continue through the coming decades unless active management actions are taken to increase native forest areas.

Spatial phylogenetics reveals evolutionary constraints on the assembly of a large regional flora

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

We used spatial phylogenetics to analyze the assembly of the Wisconsin flora, linking processes of dispersal and niche evolution to spatial patterns of floristic and phylogenetic diversity and testing whether phylogenetic niche conservatism can account for these patterns.

METHODS

We used digitized records and a new molecular phylogeny for 93% of vascular plants in Wisconsin to estimate spatial variation in species richness and phylogenetic α and β diversity in a native flora shaped mainly by postglacial dispersal and response to environmental gradients. We developed distribution models for all species and used these to infer fine-scale variation in potential diversity, phylogenetic distance, and interspecific range overlaps. We identified 11 bioregions based on floristic composition, mapped areas of neo- and paleo-endemism to establish new conservation priorities and predict how community-assembly patterns should shift with climatic change.

KEY RESULTS

Spatial phylogenetic turnover most strongly reflects differences in temperature and spatial distance. For all vascular plants, assemblages shift from phylogenetically clustered to overdispersed northward, contrary to most other studies. This pattern is lost for angiosperms alone, illustrating the importance of phylogenetic scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Species ranges and assemblage composition appear driven primarily by phylogenetic niche conservatism. Closely related species are ecologically similar and occupy similar territories. The average level and geographic structure of plant phylogenetic diversity within Wisconsin are expected to greatly decline over the next half century, while potential species richness will increase throughout the state. Our methods can be applied to allochthonous communities throughout the world.

Sixty years of community change in the prairie-savanna-forest mosaic of Wisconsin

Biodiversity loss is a global concern, and maintaining habitat complexity in naturally patchy landscapes can help retain regional diversity. A mosaic of prairie, savanna, and forest historically occurred across central North America but currently is highly fragmented due to human land conversion. It is unclear how each habitat type now contributes to regional diversity. Using legacy data, we resurveyed savanna plant communities originally surveyed in the 1950s to compare change in savannas to that in remnant forests and prairies. Savanna community structure and composition changed substantially over the past 60 years. Tree canopy density nearly doubled and many prairie and savanna specialist species were replaced by forest and non‐native species. All three habitats gained and lost many species since the 1950s, resulting in large changes in community composition from local colonizations and extinctions. Across all three habitats, regional species extinctions matched that of regional colonization resulting in no net change in regional species richness. Synthesis—Despite considerable species turnover within savannas, many species remain within the broader prairie–savanna–forest mosaic. Both regional extinctions and colonizations were high over the past 60 years, and maintaining the presence of all three community types—prairie, savanna and forest—on the landscape is critical to maintaining regional biodiversity.

Assessing plant community composition fails to capture impacts of white-tailed deer on native and invasive plant species

Excessive herbivory can have transformative effects on forest understory vegetation, converting diverse communities into depauperate ones, often with increased abundance of non-native plants. White-tailed deer are a problematic herbivore throughout much of eastern North America and alter forest understory community structure. Reducing (by culling) or eliminating (by fencing) deer herbivory is expected to return understory vegetation to a previously diverse condition. We examined this assumption from 1992 to 2006 at Fermilab (Batavia, IL) where a cull reduced white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) abundance in 1998/1999 by 90 % from 24.6 to 2.5/km², and at West Point, NY, where we assessed interactive effects of deer, earthworms, and invasive plants using 30 × 30 m paired fenced and open plots in 12 different forests from 2009 to 2012. We recorded not only plant community responses (species presence and cover) within 1 m² quadrats, but also responses of select individual species (growth, reproduction). At Fermilab, introduced Alliaria petiolata abundance initially increased as deer density increased, but then declined after deer reduction. The understory community responded to the deer cull by increased cover, species richness and height, and community composition changed but was dominated by early successional native forbs. At West Point plant community composition was affected by introduced earthworm density but not deer exclusion. Native plant cover increased and non-native plant cover decreased in fenced plots, thus keeping overall plant cover similar. At both sites native forb cover increased in response to deer reduction, but the anticipated response of understory vegetation failed to materialize at the community level. Deer-favoured forbs (Eurybia divaricata, Maianthemum racemosum, Polygonatum pubescens and Trillium recurvatum) grew taller and flowering probability increased in the absence of deer. Plant community monitoring fails to capture initial and subtle effects of reduced or even cessation of deer browse on browse sensitive species. Measuring responses of individual plants (growth, flowering and reproductive success) provides a more sensitive and powerful assessment of forest understory responses to deer management.

The paradox of long-term ungulate impact: increase of plant species richness in a temperate forest

QUESTIONS

Did high densities of wild ungulates cause a decline in plant species richness in a temperate oakwood? How did species composition change after nearly five decades? Did ungulates facilitate the spread of ruderal species and supress endangered species? Did dispersal strategies play a role in these processes?

LOCATION

Krumlov Wood, SE Czech Republic.

METHODS

In 2012, we resampled 58 quasi-permanent vegetation plots first surveyed in 1960s. Between the surveys, 36 plots were enclosed in a game preserve with artificially high density of ungulates (mostly deer, mouflon and wild boar; ca. 55 animals per square km). We analysed the differences in temporal changes between plots inside and outside the game preserve, focusing on species diversity and composition. We assessed species characteristics relevant to grazing to understand compositional changes.

RESULTS

Ungulates significantly increased alpha and gamma diversity and caused significant vegetation homogenization inside the game preserve. Vegetation homogenization and the increase in species richness resulted from massive enrichment by ruderal species. However, richness of endangered species decreased. Species dispersed by animals internally (endozoochory) increased, while species dispersed externally (epizoochory) or by wind (anemochory) decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to our expectations, our long-term data showed that artificially high ungulate densities substantially increased plant species richness. Apparently, the establishment of ruderal herbs was supported by frequent disturbances and ungulate-mediated dispersal. At the same time, species richness of non-ruderal plants did not change, probably because ungulates hindered the regeneration of woody species and maintained an open forest canopy. In conclusion, high ungulate density led to the spread of ruderal species, which in turn strongly contributed to the observed shift towards nutrient-richer conditions and taxonomically more homogenous communities.

Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change

Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change.

The pace of plant community change is accelerating in remnant prairies

Patterns of biodiversity are changing rapidly. "Legacy studies" use historical data to document changes between past and present communities, revealing long-term trends that can often be linked to particular drivers of ecological change. However, a single pair of historical samples cannot ascertain whether rates of change are consistent or whether the impact and identity of drivers have shifted. Using data from a second resurvey of 47 Wisconsin prairie remnants, we show that the pace of community change has increased with shifts in the strength of particular drivers. Annual rates of local colonization and extinction accelerated by 129 and 214%, respectively, between 1950 and 1987 and between 1987 and 2012. Two anthropogenic drivers-patch area and fire history-increased in importance between these periods. As the strength and number of anthropogenic forces increase, rates of biodiversity change are likely to accelerate in other ecosystems as well.

Long-term regional shifts in plant community composition are largely explained by local deer impact experiments

The fact that herbivores and predators exert top-down effects to alter community composition and dynamics at lower trophic levels is no longer controversial, yet we still lack evidence of the full nature, extent, and longer-term effects of these impacts. Here, we use results from a set of replicated experiments on the local impacts of white-tailed deer to evaluate the extent to which such impacts could account for half-century shifts in forest plant communities across the upper Midwest, USA. We measured species' responses to deer at four sites using 10–20 year-old deer exclosures. Among common species, eight were more abundant outside the exclosures, seven were commoner inside, and 16 had similar abundances in- and outside. Deer herbivory greatly increased the abundance of ferns and graminoids and doubled the abundance of exotic plants. In contrast, deer greatly reduced tree regeneration, shrub cover (100–200 fold in two species), plant height, plant reproduction, and the abundance of forbs. None of 36 focal species increased in reproduction or grew taller in the presence of deer, contrary to expectations. We compared these results to data on 50-year regional shifts in species abundances across 62 sites. The effects of herbivory by white-tailed deer accurately account for many of the long-term regional shifts observed in species' abundances (R² = 0.41). These results support the conjecture that deer impacts have driven many of the regional shifts in forest understory cover and composition observed in recent decades. Our ability to link results from shorter-term, local experiments to regional long-term studies of ecological change strengthens the inferences we can draw from both approaches.

Historical ecology: using unconventional data sources to test for effects of global environmental change

Predicting the future ecological impact of global change drivers requires understanding how these same drivers have acted in the past to produce the plant populations and communities we see today. Historical ecological data sources have made contributions of central importance to global change biology, but remain outside the toolkit of most ecologists. Here we review the strengths and weaknesses of four unconventional sources of historical ecological data: land survey records, "legacy" vegetation data, historical maps and photographs, and herbarium specimens. We discuss recent contributions made using these data sources to understanding the impacts of habitat disturbance and climate change on plant populations and communities, and the duration of extinction-colonization time lags in response to landscape change. Historical data frequently support inferences made using conventional ecological studies (e.g., increases in warm-adapted species as temperature rises), but there are cases when the addition of different data sources leads to different conclusions (e.g., temporal vegetation change not as predicted by chronosequence studies). The explicit combination of historical and contemporary data sources is an especially powerful approach for unraveling long-term consequences of multiple drivers of global change. Despite the limitations of historical data, which include spotty and potentially biased spatial and temporal coverage, they often represent the only means of characterizing ecological phenomena in the past and have proven indispensable for characterizing the nature, magnitude, and generality of global change impacts on plant populations and communities.

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland--urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

New reports of nuclear DNA content for 407 vascular plant taxa from the United States

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The amount of DNA in an unreplicated haploid nuclear genome (C-value) ranges over several orders of magnitude among plant species and represents a key metric for comparing plant genomes. To extend previously published datasets on plant nuclear content and to characterize the DNA content of many species present in one region of North America, flow cytometry was used to estimate C-values of woody and herbaceous species collected in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA.

METHODS

A total of 674 samples and vouchers were collected from locations across Wisconsin and Michigan, USA. From these, C-value estimates were obtained for 514 species, subspecies and varieties of vascular plants. Nuclei were extracted from samples of these species in one of two buffers, stained with the fluorochrome propidium iodide, and an Accuri C-6 flow cytometer was used to measure fluorescence peaks relative to those of an internal standard. Replicate extractions, coefficients of variation and comparisons to published C-values in the same and related species were used to confirm the accuracy and reliability of our results.

KEY RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Prime C-values for 407 taxa are provided for which no published data exist, including 390 angiosperms, two gymnosperms, ten monilophytes and five lycophytes. Non-prime reports for 107 additional taxa are also provided. The prime values represent new reports for 129 genera and five families (of 303 genera and 97 families sampled). New family C-value maxima or minima are reported for Betulaceae, Ericaceae, Ranunculaceae and Sapindaceae. These data provide the basis for phylogenetic analyses of C-value variation and future analyses of how C-values covary with other functional traits.