Projected Reductions in Absolute Cancer-Related Deaths from Diagnosing Cancers Before Metastasis, 2006-2015

Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths

PURPOSE

Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening.

METHODS

Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020.

RESULTS

Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach.

CONCLUSION

Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Addressing positive multi-cancer early detection tests in head and neck Surgery: Experience with head and neck work up for high-risk referrals

OBJECTIVES

Blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are now commercially available. However, there are currently no consensus guidelines available for head and neck cancer (HNC) providers to direct work up or surveillance for patients with a positive MCED test. We seek to describe cases of patients with positive MCED tests suggesting HNC and provide insights for their evaluation.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review of patients referred to Otolaryngology with an MCED result suggesting HNC. Patients enrolled in prospective MCED clinical trials were excluded. Cancer diagnoses were confirmed via frozen-section pathology.

RESULTS

Five patients were included (mean age: 69.2 years, range 50-87; 4 male) with MCED-identified-high-risk for HNC or lymphoma. Only patient was symptomatic. After physical exam and follow-up head and neck imaging, circulating tumor HPV DNA testing, two patients were diagnosed with p16 + oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas and underwent appropriate therapy. A third patient had no evidence of head and neck cancer but was diagnosed with sarcoma of the thigh. The remaining two patients had no evidence of malignancy after in-depth workup.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective study, 2 of 5 patients referred to Otolaryngology with a positive MCED result were diagnosed with HPV + oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. We recommend that positive HNC MCED work up include thorough head and neck examination with flexible laryngoscopy and focused CT or MRI imaging. Given the potential for inaccurate MCED tissue of origin classification, PET/CT may be useful in specific situations. For a patient with no cancer identified, development of clear guidelines is warranted.

Worm-Based Diagnosis Combining Microfluidics toward Early Cancer Screening

Early cancer diagnosis increases therapy efficiency and saves huge medical costs. Traditional blood-based cancer markers and endoscopy procedures demonstrate limited capability in the diagnosis. Reliable, non-invasive, and cost-effective methods are in high demand across the world. Worm-based diagnosis, utilizing the chemosensory neuronal system of C. elegans, emerges as a non-invasive approach for early cancer diagnosis with high sensitivity. It facilitates effectiveness in large-scale cancer screening for the foreseeable future. Here, we review the progress of a unique route of early cancer diagnosis based on the chemosensory neuronal system of C. elegans. We first introduce the basic procedures of the chemotaxis assay of C. elegans: synchronization, behavior assay, immobilization, and counting. Then, we review the progress of each procedure and the various cancer types for which this method has achieved early diagnosis. For each procedure, we list examples of microfluidics technologies that have improved the automation, throughput, and efficiency of each step or module. Finally, we envision that microfluidics technologies combined with the chemotaxis assay of C. elegans can lead to an automated, cost-effective, non-invasive early cancer screening technology, with the development of more mature microfluidic modules as well as systematic integration of functional modules.

Blood-based screening for HPV-associated cancers

Background

HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (HPV+OPSCC) is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States yet unlike cervical cancer lacks a screening test. HPV+OPSCCs are presumed to start developing 10-15 years prior to clinical diagnosis. Circulating tumor HPV DNA (ctHPVDNA) is a sensitive and specific biomarker for HPV+OPSCC. Taken together, blood-based screening for HPV+OPSCC may be feasible years prior to diagnosis.

Methods

We developed an HPV whole genome sequencing assay, HPV-DeepSeek, with 99% sensitivity and specificity at clinical diagnosis. 28 plasma samples from HPV+OPSCC patients collected 1.3-10.8 years prior to diagnosis along with 1:1 age and gender-matched controls were run on HPV-DeepSeek and an HPV serology assay.

Results

22/28 (79%) of cases and 0/28 controls screened positive for HPV+OPSCC with 100% detection within four years of diagnosis and a maximum lead time of 7.8 years. We next applied a machine learning model classifying 27/28 cases (96%) with 100% detection within 10 years. Plasma-based PIK3CA gene mutations, viral genome integration events and HPV serology were used to orthogonally validate cancer detection with 68% (19/28) of the cohort having multiple cancer signals detected. Molecular fingerprinting of HPV genomes was performed across patients demonstrating that each viral genome was unique, ruling out contamination. In patients with tumor blocks from diagnosis (15/28), molecular fingerprinting was performed within patients confirming the same viral genome across time.

Conclusions

We demonstrate accurate blood-based detection of HPV-associated cancers with lead times up to 10 years before clinical cancer diagnosis and in doing so, highlight the enormous potential of ctDNA-based cancer screening.

Multi-Cancer Early Detection: The New Frontier in Cancer Early Detection

The new generation of cancer early detection tests holds remarkable promise for revolutionizing and changing the paradigm of cancer early detection. Dozens of cancer early detection tests are being developed and evaluated. Some are already commercialized and available for use, most as a complement to and not in place of existing recommended cancer screening tests. This review evaluates existing single- and multi-cancer early detection tests (MCEDs), discussing their performance characteristics including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy. It also critically looks at the potential harms that could result from these tests, including false positive and negative results, the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment, psychological and economic harms, and the risk of widening cancer inequities. We also review the large-scale, population-based studies that are being launched in the United States and United Kingdom to determine the impact of MCEDs on clinically relevant outcomes and implications for current practice.

A non-invasive method for concurrent detection of multiple early-stage cancers in women

Untargeted serum metabolomics was combined with machine learning-powered data analytics to develop a test for the concurrent detection of multiple cancers in women. A total of fifteen cancers were tested where the resulting metabolome data was sequentially analysed using two separate algorithms. The first algorithm successfully identified all the cancer-positive samples with an overall accuracy of > 99%. This result was particularly significant given that the samples tested were predominantly from early-stage cancers. Samples identified as cancer-positive were next analysed using a multi-class algorithm, which then enabled accurate discernment of the tissue of origin for the individual samples. Integration of serum metabolomics with appropriate data analytical tools, therefore, provides a powerful screening platform for early-stage cancers.

Blood-based tests for multicancer early detection (PATHFINDER): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multicancer early detection (MCED) blood tests can detect a cancer signal from circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA). PATHFINDER was a prospective cohort study investigating the feasibility of MCED testing for cancer screening.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study done in oncology and primary care outpatient clinics at seven US health networks, a convenience sample of adults aged 50 years or older without signs or symptoms of cancer consented to MCED testing. We collected blood, analysed cfDNA, and returned results to participants' doctors. If a methylation signature indicative of cancer was detected, predicted cancer signal origin(s) informed diagnostic assessment. The primary outcome was time to, and extent of, diagnostic testing required to confirm the presence or absence of cancer. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04241796, and is completed.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 12, 2019, and Dec 4, 2020, we recruited 6662 participants. 4204 (63·5%) of 6621 participants with analysable results were women, 2417 (36·5%) were men, and 6071 (91·7%) were White. A cancer signal was detected in 92 (1·4%) of 6621 participants with analysable results. 35 (38%) participants were diagnosed with cancer (true positives) and 57 (62%) had no cancer diagnosis (false positives). Excluding two participants whose diagnostic assessments began before MCED test results were reported, median time to diagnostic resolution was 79 days (IQR 37-219): 57 days (33-143) in true-positive and 162 days (44-248) in false-positive participants. Most participants had both laboratory tests (26 [79%] of 33 with true-positive results and 50 [88%] of 57 with false-positive results) and imaging (30 [91%] of 33 with true-positive results and 53 [93%] of 57 with false-positive results). Fewer procedures were done in participants with false-positive results (17 [30%] of 57) than true-positive results (27 [82%] of 33) and few had surgery (one with a false-positive result and three with a true-positive result).

INTERPRETATION

This study supports the feasibility of MCED screening for cancer and underscores the need for further research investigating the test's clinical utility.

FUNDING

GRAIL.

Transmission of Lung Adenocarcinoma From a Single Donor in 2 Transplant Recipients: A Case Report With Literature Review

Malignancies transmitted to recipients during solid organ transplants carry significant morbidity and mortality. We present 2 cases of adenocarcinoma of donor lung origin transmitted via liver and kidney transplant from a single donor. Both recipients developed metastatic adenocarcinoma of lung origin with p.L858R mutation in the epidermal growth factor receptor gene and a microsatellite signature of donor origin. Osimertinib was trialed in the liver recipient; however, it was discontinued because of hepatotoxicity and disease progression. Standard donor screening protocols limit malignancy transmission but do not include multicancer detection assays. As these technologies evolve, they may be implemented in donor screening.

Red-flag signs and symptoms for earlier diagnosis of early-onset colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Prompt detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) among individuals younger than age 50 years (early-onset CRC) is a clinical priority because of its alarming rise.

METHODS

We conducted a matched case-control study of 5075 incident early-onset CRC among US commercial insurance beneficiaries (113 million adults aged 18-64 years) with 2 or more years of continuous enrollment (2006-2015) to identify red-flag signs and symptoms between 3 months to 2 years before the index date among 17 prespecified signs and symptoms. We assessed diagnostic intervals according to the presence of these signs and symptoms before and within 3 months of diagnosis.

RESULTS

Between 3 months and 2 years before the index date, 4 red-flag signs and symptoms (abdominal pain, rectal bleeding, diarrhea, and iron deficiency anemia) were associated with an increased risk of early-onset CRC, with odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 1.34 to 5.13. Having 1, 2, or at least 3 of these signs and symptoms were associated with a 1.94-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.76 to 2.14), 3.59-fold (95% CI = 2.89 to 4.44), and 6.52-fold (95% CI = 3.78 to 11.23) risk (Ptrend < .001), respectively, with stronger associations for younger ages (Pinteraction < .001) and rectal cancer (Pheterogenity = .012). The number of different signs and symptoms was predictive of early-onset CRC beginning 18 months before diagnosis. Approximately 19.3% of patients had their first sign or symptom occur between 3 months and 2 years before diagnosis (median diagnostic interval = 8.7 months), and approximately 49.3% had the first sign or symptom within 3 months of diagnosis (median diagnostic interval = 0.53 month).

CONCLUSIONS

Early recognition of red-flag signs and symptoms (abdominal pain, rectal bleeding, diarrhea, and iron-deficiency anemia) may improve early detection and timely diagnosis of early-onset CRC.

Time duration and health care resource use during cancer diagnoses in the United States: A large claims database analysis

BACKGROUND: Cancer diagnostic pathways are highly variable and not clearly established in the United States, which can lead to a diagnosis process that takes more time and exposes patients to invasive or unnecessary procedures, delays in treatment, worsening patient outcomes, and elevated health care resource utilization (HRU) and health care system costs. OBJECTIVE: To investigate current trends in time to diagnosis and diagnostic-related HRU preceding the patient's cancer diagnosis across all cancer types in the United States. METHODS: A retrospective claims analysis was conducted on patients newly diagnosed with cancer identified from 2018-2019 using Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart database, which includes Medicare Advantage and commercially insured members. Patients were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes and were required to have at least 2 outpatient visits at least 30 days apart or at least 1 inpatient cancer visit without prior cancer claims. The first diagnostic test was identified based on an algorithm of a 60-day gap between diagnostic tests prior to diagnosis. The index date was defined as the first diagnostic test date or an office visit less than 4 weeks prior to the first diagnostic test date. Patient characteristics, time to diagnosis, and HRU were descriptively analyzed for all patients and by cancer type. RESULTS: Among the 458,818 patients newly diagnosed with cancer included in this analysis, the mean age was 70.6 years, approximately half were female, and most were White people (65.0%) with Medicare Advantage coverage (74.0%). Patients with cancer had an overall mean (SD) time to diagnosis of 156.2 (164.9) days and 15.4% of patients waited longer than 180 days before a cancer diagnosis. High heterogeneity among cancer types was observed, with a mean time to diagnosis ranging from 121.6 days (bladder cancer) to 229.0 days (multiple myeloma). Imaging resource use during the diagnostic pathway was high for radiology (60.7%), computerized tomography (50.8%), magnetic resonance imaging (48.6%), and ultrasound (42.6%). A total of 69.3% of patients had endoscopy without biopsy, 36.5% had endoscopy with biopsy, 62.5% had other biopsies, and most patients did general urine and serum tests (91.3%) and nongenetic cancer-specific laboratory tests (84.3%). Resource use was highly varied by cancer type but tended to increase with a longer time to diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of patients experiencing a diagnostic process of longer than 180 days is clinically and economically meaningful. Diagnostic-related HRU was significant and highly variable, highlighting the inefficiencies in the cancer diagnostic process in the United States and the need for policies, guidelines, or medical interventions to streamline cancer diagnostic pathways to optimize patient outcomes and reduce health care system burden. DISCLOSURES: Dr Cong is an employee of Grail, LLC, which supported this study. Drs Gitlin and McGarvey are employees of BluePath Solutions, and Ms Shivaprakash was an employee of BluePath Solutions, which received financial support from Grail, LLC, for study-related research activities. This study was sponsored by Grail, LLC, a subsidiary of Illumina Inc. currently held separate from Illumina Inc. under the terms of the Interim Measures Order of the European Commission dated October 29, 2021. The sponsor had no role in the collection, management, and analysis of the data. The sponsor contributed to study design and data interpretation.

Circulating Tumor DNA in Gastric Adenocarcinoma: Future Clinical Applications and Perspectives

Gastric cancer (GC) is still one of the most aggressive cancers with a few targetable alterations and a dismal prognosis. A liquid biopsy allows for identifying and analyzing the DNA released from tumor cells into the bloodstream. Compared to tissue-based biopsy, liquid biopsy is less invasive, requires fewer samples, and can be repeated over time in order to longitudinally monitor tumor burden and molecular changes. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has been recognized to have a prognostic role in all the disease stages of GC. The aim of this article is to review the current and future applications of ctDNA in gastric adenocarcinoma, in particular, with respect to early diagnosis, the detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) following curative surgery, and in the advanced disease setting for treatment decision choice and therapeutic monitoring. Although liquid biopsies have shown potentiality, pre-analytical and analytical steps must be standardized and validated to ensure the reproducibility and standardization of the procedures and data analysis methods. Further research is needed to allow the use of liquid biopsy in everyday clinical practice.

The role of routine transpedicular biopsies during kyphoplasty or vertebroplasty for vertebral compression fractures in the detection of malignant diseases: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Procedures like kyphoplasty or vertebroplasty have become an established treatment option for vertebral compression fractures (VCF). The transpedicular approach used during these procedures allows to take biopsies from the affected vertebral body. The aim of this study was to systematically summarize the existing knowledge on the value of routine transpedicular biopsies during kyphoplasty or vertebroplasty for vertebral compression fractures.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature using PubMed/Medline databases with the goal of finding all articles describing the value trans-pedicular biopsies for detecting primary bone tumors, metastases, bone diseases, or spondylitis in patients with vertebral compression fractures was performed. Search terms were (*biopsy/ OR biops*.ti,ab.) AND (vertebral compression fracture*.ti,ab.).

RESULTS

Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria, among these were six prospective and ten retrospective case series. Publication dates ranged from 2005 to 2020. A total of 3083 patients with 3667 transpedicular biopsies performed were included. Most biopsies confirmed osteoporosis as the dominant underlying pathology of VCFs. Transpedicular biopsies revealed an unexpected malignant diagnosis in 0.4-6% of the cases.

CONCLUSION

Routine transpedicular biopsies during kyphoplasty or vertebroplasty detect unexpected malignant lesions in 0.4-6% of the patients, even though the definition of "unexpected" varies among the analyzed studies. The evidence to support a routine biopsy is inconsistent. Nevertheless, routine biopsies can be considered, especially when sufficient preoperatvie imaging is not available or radiological findings are unclear.

Shifting the Cancer Screening Paradigm: The Rising Potential of Blood-Based Multi-Cancer Early Detection Tests

Cancer remains a leading cause of death worldwide, partly owing to late detection which entails limited and often ineffective therapeutic options. Most cancers lack validated screening procedures, and the ones available disclose several drawbacks, leading to low patient compliance and unnecessary workups, adding up the costs to healthcare systems. Hence, there is a great need for innovative, accurate, and minimally invasive tools for early cancer detection. In recent years, multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests emerged as a promising screening tool, combining molecular analysis of tumor-related markers present in body fluids with artificial intelligence to simultaneously detect a variety of cancers and further discriminate the underlying cancer type. Herein, we aim to provide a highlight of the variety of strategies currently under development concerning MCED, as well as the major factors which are preventing clinical implementation. Although MCED tests depict great potential for clinical application, large-scale clinical validation studies are still lacking.

Performance of a targeted methylation-based multi-cancer early detection test by race and ethnicity

Disparities in cancer screening and outcomes based on factors such as sex, socioeconomic status, and race and ethnicity in the United States are well documented. A blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test that detects a shared cancer signal across multiple cancer types and also predicts the cancer signal origin was developed and validated in the Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas study (CCGA; NCT02889978). CCGA is a prospective, multicenter, case-control, observational study with longitudinal follow-up (overall N = 15,254). In this pre-specified, exploratory, descriptive analysis, test performance was evaluated among racial and ethnic groups. Overall, 4077 participants comprised the independent validation set with confirmed cancer status (cancer: n = 2823; non-cancer: n = 1254). Participants were stratified into the following racial/ethnic groups: Black (non-Hispanic), Hispanic (all races), Other (non-Hispanic), Other/unknown and White (non-Hispanic). Cancer and non-cancer participants were predominantly White (n = 2316, 82.0% and n = 996, 79.4%, respectively). Across groups, specificity for cancer signal detection ranged from 98.1% [n = 103; 95% CI: 93.2-99.5%] to 100% [n = 85; 95% CI: 95.7-100.0%]. The sensitivity for cancer signal detection across groups ranged from 43.9% [n = 57; 95% CI: 31.8-56.7%] to 63.0% [n = 192; 95% CI: 56.0-69.5%] and generally increased with clinical stage. The MCED test had consistently high specificity and similar sensitivity across racial and ethnic groups, though results are limited by sample size for some groups. Results support the broad applicability of this MCED test and clinical implementation on a population scale as a complement to standard screening.

Impact of early detection on cancer curability: A modified Delphi panel study

Expert consensus on the potential benefits of early cancer detection does not exist for most cancer types. We convened 10 practicing oncologists using a RAND/UCLA modified Delphi panel to evaluate which of 20 solid tumors, representing >40 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-identified cancer types and 80% of total cancer incidence, would receive potential clinical benefits from early detection. Pre-meeting, experts estimated how long cancers take to progress and rated the current curability and benefit (improvement in curability) of an annual hypothetical multi-cancer screening blood test. Post-meeting, experts rerated all questions. Cancers had varying estimates of the potential benefit of early cancer detection depending on estimates of their curability and progression by stage. Cancers rated as progressing quickly and being curable in earlier stages (stomach, esophagus, lung, urothelial tract, melanoma, ovary, sarcoma, bladder, cervix, breast, colon/rectum, kidney, uterus, anus, head and neck) were estimated to be most likely to benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. Cancer types rated as progressing quickly but having comparatively lower cure rates in earlier stages (liver/intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder, pancreas) were estimated to have medium likelihood of benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. Cancer types rated as progressing more slowly and having higher curability regardless of stage (prostate, thyroid) were estimated to have limited likelihood of benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. The panel concluded most solid tumors have a likelihood of benefit from early detection. Even among difficult-to-treat cancers (e.g., pancreas, liver/intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder), early-stage detection was believed to be beneficial. Based on the panel consensus, broad coverage of cancers by screening blood tests would deliver the greatest potential benefits to patients.

Multimodal analysis of ctDNA methylation and fragmentomic profiles enhances detection of nonmetastatic colorectal cancer

Aims: Early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) provides substantially better survival rates. This study aimed to develop a blood-based screening assay named SPOT-MAS ('screen for the presence of tumor by DNA methylation and size') for early CRC detection with high accuracy. Methods: Plasma cell-free DNA samples from 159 patients with nonmetastatic CRC and 158 healthy controls were simultaneously analyzed for fragment length and methylation profiles. We then employed a deep neural network with fragment length and methylation signatures to build a classification model. Results: The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.989 and a sensitivity of 96.8% at 97% specificity in detecting CRC. External validation of our model showed comparable performance, with an area under the curve of 0.96. Conclusion: SPOT-MAS based on integration of cancer-specific methylation and fragmentomic signatures could provide high accuracy for early-stage CRC detection.

Stage Shift as an Endpoint in Cancer Screening Trials: Implications for Evaluating Multicancer Early Detection Tests

BACKGROUND

Disease-specific mortality is a consensus endpoint in cancer screening trials. New liquid biopsy-based screening tests, including multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, are creating a need to reduce the typically lengthy screening trial process. Endpoints based on the reduction in late-stage disease (stage shift) have been proposed but it is unclear how well they predict the impact of screening on disease-specific mortality across a variety of cancers potentially detectable by MCED tests.

METHODS

We develop a mathematical formulation relating the reduction in late-stage cancer to the expected reduction in disease-specific mortality if cases diagnosed early via screening receive a corresponding shift in mortality. We investigate the similarity between the expected mortality reduction and the observed mortality reduction in published trials of screening for breast, lung, ovarian, and prostate cancer.

RESULTS

The expected mortality reduction for a given stage shift varies significantly depending on cancer- and stage-specific survival distributions, with some cancer types showing little possibility for mortality improvement even under substantial stage shift. The expected mortality reduction fails to consistently match the mortality outcomes of published trials.

CONCLUSIONS

In MCED, any mortality benefit is likely to vary substantially across target cancers. Stage shift does not appear to be a reliable basis for inference about mortality reduction across cancers potentially detectable by MCED tests.

IMPACT

Stage shift may be an appealing endpoint for evaluation of cancer screening tests but it appears to be an unreliable predictor of mortality benefit; furthermore, the same stage shift can mean different things for different cancers.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Cancer Diagnosed after Metastasis: Absolute Burden and Deaths Potentially Avoidable through Earlier Detection

BACKGROUND

Racial/ethnic disparities in cancer mortality are well described and are partly attributable to later stage of diagnosis. It is unclear to what extent reductions in the incidence of late-stage cancer could narrow these relative and absolute disparities.

METHODS

We obtained stage- and cancer-specific incidence and survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for persons ages 50 to 79 years between 2006 and 2015. For eight hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 persons defined by race/ethnicity and sex, we estimated cancer-related deaths if cancers diagnosed at stage IV were detected earlier, by assigning them outcomes of earlier stages.

RESULTS

We observed a 3-fold difference in the absolute burden of stage IV cancer between the group with the highest rate (non-Hispanic Black males, 337 per 100,000) and the lowest rate (non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander females, 117 per 100,000). Assuming all stage IV cancers were diagnosed at stage III, 32-80 fewer cancer-related deaths would be expected across subgroups, a relative reduction of 13%-14%. Assuming one third of metastatic cancers were diagnosed at each earlier stage (I, II, and III), 52-126 fewer cancer-related deaths would be expected across subgroups, a relative reduction of 21%-23%.

CONCLUSIONS

Across population subgroups, non-Hispanic Black males have the highest burden of stage IV cancer and would have the most deaths averted from improved detection of cancer before metastasis.

IMPACT

Detecting cancer before metastasis could meaningfully reduce deaths in all populations, but especially in non-Hispanic Black populations. See related commentary by Loomans-Kropp et al., p. 512.

New genomic technologies for multi-cancer early detection: Rethinking the scope of cancer screening

Cancers other than breast, colorectal, cervical, and lung do not have guideline-recommended screening. New multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests-using a single blood sample-have been developed based on circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) or other analytes. In this commentary, we review the current evidence on these tests, provide several major considerations for new MCED tests, and outline how their evaluation will need to differ from that established for traditional single-cancer screening tests.

Opportunities for Early Cancer Detection: The Rise of ctDNA Methylation-Based Pan-Cancer Screening Technologies

The efficiency of conventional screening programs to identify early-stage malignancies can be limited by the low number of cancers recommended for screening as well as the high cumulative false-positive rate, and associated iatrogenic burden, resulting from repeated multimodal testing. The opportunity to use minimally invasive liquid biopsy testing to screen asymptomatic individuals at-risk for multiple cancers simultaneously could benefit from the aggregated diseases prevalence and a fixed specificity. Increasing both latter parameters is paramount to mediate high positive predictive value—a useful metric to evaluate a screening test accuracy and its potential harm-benefit. Thus, the use of a single test for multi-cancer early detection (stMCED) has emerged as an appealing strategy for increasing early cancer detection rate efficiency and benefit population health. A recent flurry of these stMCED technologies have been reported for clinical potential; however, their development is facing unique challenges to effectively improve clinical cost–benefit. One promising avenue is the analysis of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) for detecting DNA methylation biomarker fingerprints of malignancies—a hallmark of disease aetiology and progression holding the potential to be tissue- and cancer-type specific. Utilizing panels of epigenetic biomarkers could potentially help to detect earlier stages of malignancies as well as identify a tumour of origin from blood testing, useful information for follow-up clinical decision making and subsequent patient care improvement. Overall, this review collates the latest and most promising stMCED methodologies, summarizes their clinical performances, and discusses the specific requirements multi-cancer tests should meet to be successfully implemented into screening guidelines.

Quantifying the absolute number of cancer deaths that would be avoided if cancers were diagnosed prior to progressing to distant metastasis, New South Wales, Australia 1985-2014

This study measures the impact of diagnosing cancers early before they metastasise on reducing the burden of cancer death. A cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a solid cancer in New South Wales, Australia, during 1985-2014 were followed-up to December 2015. Crude probabilities of cancer death by stage at diagnosis were calculated for all solid cancers combined and five individual cancers using flexible parametric relative survival models. These probabilities were used to estimate the number of avoided cancer deaths within 10 years of diagnosis in three 10-year diagnostic periods if all cases with known distant stage were instead diagnosed at an earlier stage. Cancers known to be diagnosed at distant stage comprised ~16% of all solid cancers diagnosed during 2005-2014. Assuming all these cases were instead diagnosed at regional stage, an annual average of 2,064 cancer deaths would have been potentially avoided within 10 years of diagnosis. This equated to ~21% of modelled observed deaths. Alternatively, if half of all known distant cases diagnosed during 2005-2014 were diagnosed as regional and half as localised, the average number of deaths avoided per year would increase to 2,677 (~28%). Estimates varied by diagnostic period, sex, and cancer type, reflecting both the different stage distributions for the cancer types, and the respective survival differences between cancer stages. While prevention is the most effective pillar of cancer control, these findings quantify the potential benefits of diagnosing all cancer types when they are less advanced to reduce the burden of cancer mortality.

Estimating the population health impact of a multi-cancer early detection genomic blood test to complement existing screening in the US and UK

BACKGROUND

Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) next-generation-sequencing blood tests represent a potential paradigm shift in screening.

METHODS

We estimated the impact of screening in the US and UK. We used country-specific parameters for uptake, and test-specific sensitivity and false-positive rates for current screening: breast, colorectal, cervical and lung (US only) cancers. For the MCED test, we used cancer-specific sensitivities by stage. Outcomes included the true-positive:false-positive (TP:FP) ratio; and the cost of diagnostic investigations among screen positives, per cancer detected (Diagcost). Outcomes were estimated for recommended screening only, and then when giving the MCED test to anyone without cancer detected by current screening plus similarly aged adults ineligible for recommended screening.

RESULTS

In the US, current screening detects an estimated 189,498 breast, cervical, colorectal and lung cancers. An MCED test with 25-100% uptake detects an additional 105,526-422,105 cancers (multiple types). The estimated TP:FP (Diagcost) was 1.43 ($89,042) with current screening but only 1:1.8 ($7060) using an MCED test. For the UK the corresponding estimates were 1:18 (£10,452) for current screening, and 1:1.6 (£2175) using an MCED test.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding an MCED blood test to recommended screening can potentially be an efficient strategy. Ongoing randomised studies are required for full efficacy and cost-effectiveness evaluations.

Screening and prevention of colorectal cancer

Mortality from colorectal cancer is reduced through screening and early detection; moreover, removal of neoplastic lesions can reduce cancer incidence. While understanding of the risk factors, pathogenesis, and precursor lesions of colorectal cancer has advanced, the cause of the recent increase in cancer among young adults is largely unknown. Multiple invasive, semi- and non-invasive screening modalities have emerged over the past decade. The current emphasis on quality of colonoscopy has improved the effectiveness of screening and prevention, and the role of new technologies in detection of neoplasia, such as artificial intelligence, is rapidly emerging. The overall screening rates in the US, however, are suboptimal, and few interventions have been shown to increase screening uptake. This review provides an overview of colorectal cancer, the current status of screening efforts, and the tools available to reduce mortality from colorectal cancer.

Multi-Cancer Early Detection: Learning from the past to Meet the Future

Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests may soon be available to screen for many cancers using a single blood test, yet little is known about these tests beyond their diagnostic performance. Taking lessons from the history of cancer early detection, we highlight three factors that influence how performance of early detection tests translates into benefit and benefit-harm tradeoffs: the ability to readily confirm a cancer signal, the population testing strategy, and the natural histories of the targeted cancers. We explain why critical gaps in our current knowledge about each factor prevent reliably projecting the expected clinical impact of MCED testing at this point in time. Our goal is to communicate how much uncertainty there is about the possible effects of MCED tests on population health so that patients, providers, regulatory agencies, and the public are well informed about what is reasonable to expect from this potentially important technological advance. We also urge the community to invest in a coordinated effort to collect data on MCED test dissemination and outcomes so that these can be tracked and studied while the tests are rigorously evaluated for benefit, harm, and cost.

Clinical validation of a targeted methylation-based multi-cancer early detection test using an independent validation set

BACKGROUND

A multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test used to complement existing screening could increase the number of cancers detected through population screening, potentially improving clinical outcomes. The Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas study (CCGA; NCT02889978) was a prospective, case-controlled, observational study and demonstrated that a blood-based MCED test utilizing cell-free DNA (cfDNA) sequencing in combination with machine learning could detect cancer signals across multiple cancer types and predict cancer signal origin (CSO) with high accuracy. The objective of this third and final CCGA substudy was to validate an MCED test version further refined for use as a screening tool.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This pre-specified substudy included 4077 participants in an independent validation set (cancer: n = 2823; non-cancer: n = 1254, non-cancer status confirmed at year-one follow-up). Specificity, sensitivity, and CSO prediction accuracy were measured.

RESULTS

Specificity for cancer signal detection was 99.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 99.0% to 99.8%]. Overall sensitivity for cancer signal detection was 51.5% (49.6% to 53.3%); sensitivity increased with stage [stage I: 16.8% (14.5% to 19.5%), stage II: 40.4% (36.8% to 44.1%), stage III: 77.0% (73.4% to 80.3%), stage IV: 90.1% (87.5% to 92.2%)]. Stage I-III sensitivity was 67.6% (64.4% to 70.6%) in 12 pre-specified cancers that account for approximately two-thirds of annual USA cancer deaths and was 40.7% (38.7% to 42.9%) in all cancers. Cancer signals were detected across >50 cancer types. Overall accuracy of CSO prediction in true positives was 88.7% (87.0% to 90.2%).

CONCLUSION

In this pre-specified, large-scale, clinical validation substudy, the MCED test demonstrated high specificity and accuracy of CSO prediction and detected cancer signals across a wide diversity of cancers. These results support the feasibility of this blood-based MCED test as a complement to existing single-cancer screening tests.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT02889978.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a pan-cancer screening test: is it finally on the horizon?

The detection of cancer at an early stage while it is curable by surgical resection is widely believed to be one of the most effective strategies for reducing cancer mortality. Hence, the intense interests in the development of a simple pan-cancer screening test. Lack of sensitivity and specificity when combined with the low prevalence of most types of cancer types in the general population limit the use of most of the existing protein biomarkers for this purpose. Like proteins, tumor DNA also can be released into the circulation. Such circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can be differentiated from normal cell DNA by the presence of specific genetic alteration such as mutations, copy number changes, altered methylation patterns or being present in different sized fragments. Emerging results with test such as CancerSEEK or GRAIL suggest that the use of ctDNA can detect cancer with specificities >99%. Sensitivity however, is cancer type and stage-dependent, varying from approximately 40% in stage I disease to approximately 80% in stage III disease. It is important to stress however, that most of the studies published to date have used patients with an established diagnosis of cancer while the control population were healthy individuals. Although the emerging results are promising, evidence of clinical utility will require demonstration of reduced mortality following evaluation in a prospective randomized screening trial.

Modeled Reductions in Late-stage Cancer with a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test

BACKGROUND

Cancer is the second leading cause of death globally, with many cases detected at a late stage when prognosis is poor. New technologies enabling multi-cancer early detection (MCED) may make "universal cancer screening" possible. We extend single-cancer models to understand the potential public health effects of adding a MCED test to usual care.

METHODS

We obtained data on stage-specific incidence and survival of all invasive cancers diagnosed in persons aged 50-79 between 2006 and 2015 from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, and combined this with published performance of a MCED test in a state transition model (interception model) to predict diagnostic yield, stage shift, and potential mortality reductions. We model long-term (incident) performance, accou.

A mathematical model of ctDNA shedding predicts tumor detection size

Early cancer detection aims to find tumors before they progress to an incurable stage. To determine the potential of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) for cancer detection, we developed a mathematical model of tumor evolution and ctDNA shedding to predict the size at which tumors become detectable. From 176 patients with stage I to III lung cancer, we inferred that, on average, 0.014% of a tumor cell's DNA is shed into the bloodstream per cell death. For annual screening, the model predicts median detection sizes of 2.0 to 2.3 cm representing a ~40% decrease from the current median detection size of 3.5 cm. For informed monthly cancer relapse testing, the model predicts a median detection size of 0.83 cm and suggests that treatment failure can be detected 140 days earlier than with imaging-based approaches. This mechanistic framework can help accelerate clinical trials by precomputing the most promising cancer early detection strategies.