The need for COVID-19 research in low- and middle-income countries

Characteristics of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients at Admission and Factors Associated with Clinical Severity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: An Observational Study

Despite the numerous articles published on the clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 with regard to high-income countries, little is known about patients in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in this context. The objective of this observational, prospective, hospital-based multicentric study was to describe clinical features and outcomes of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized in each of the participating centers in Bangladesh, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Lebanon, Madagascar, and Mali during the first year of the pandemic (March 5, 2020 to May 4, 2021). The study outcome was the clinical severity of COVID-19, defined as hospitalization in intensive care unit or death. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify independent variables associated with disease severity. Overall, 1,096 patients were included. The median age was 49.0 years, ranging from 38.0 in Mali to 63.0 years in Guinea. The overall clinical severity of COVID-19 was 12.3%, ranging from 6.4% in Mali to 18.8% in Guinea. In both groups of patients <60 and ≥60 years old, cardiovascular diseases (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.13-3.50, P = 0.02; aOR: 2.47; 95% CI: 1.33-4.57, P = 0.004) were independently associated with clinical severity, whereas in patients <60 years, diabetes (aOR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.11-4.10, P = 0.02) was also associated with clinical severity. Our findings suggest that COVID-19-related severity and death in LMICs are mainly driven by older age. However, the presence of chronic diseases can also increase the risk of severity especially in younger patients.

Global landscape of COVID-19 research: a visualization analysis of randomized clinical trials

The emergence of COVID-19 in 2019 has resulted in a significant global health crisis. Consequently, extensive research was published to understand and mitigate the disease. In particular, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been considered the benchmark for assessing the efficacy and safety of interventions. Hence, the present study strives to present a comprehensive overview of the global research landscape pertaining to RCTs and COVID-19. A bibliometric analysis was performed using the Scopus database. The search parameters included articles published from 2020 to 2022 using keywords specifically related to COVID-19 and RCTs. The data were analyzed using various bibliometric indicators. The volume of publications, contributions of countries and institutions, funding agencies, active journals, citation analysis, co-occurrence analysis, and future research direction analysis were specifically analyzed. A total of 223,480 research articles concerning COVID-19 were published, with 3,727 of them related to RCTs and COVID-19. The ten most productive countries collectively produced 75.8% of the documents, with the United States leading the way by contributing 31.77%, followed by the UK with 14.03% (n = 523), China with 12.96% (n = 483) and Canada with 7.16% (n = 267). Trials (n = 173, 4.64%), BMJ Open (n = 81, 2.17%), PLOS One (n = 73, 1.96%) and JAMA Network Open (n = 53, 1.42%) were the most active journals in publishing articles related to COVID-19 RCTs. The co-occurrence analysis identified four clusters of research areas: the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, mental health strategies to cope with the impact of the pandemic, the use of monoclonal antibodies to treat patients with COVID-19, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses of COVID-19 research. This paper offers a detailed examination of the global research environment pertaining to RCTs and their use in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The comprehensive body of research findings was found to have been generated by the collaborative efforts of multiple countries, institutions, and funding organizations. The predominant research areas encompassed COVID-19 vaccines, strategies for mental health, monoclonal antibodies, and systematic reviews. This information has the potential to aid researchers, policymakers, and funders in discerning areas of weakness and establishing areas of priority.

Risk factors for COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Argentina: A competing risk survival analysis

COVID-19 poses dire threats for low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Yet, there remains limited rigorous evidence describing the characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients for LMICs, and often the evidence was based on small samples and/or unicentric. The objective of this study was to examine risk factors of COVID-19 mortality in Argentina, a hard-hit middle-income Latin American country. We analyze data on 5,146 COVID-19 patients from 11 centers across 10 cities in Argentina, making this one of the largest multi-centric retrospective observational descriptive studies in the LMICs. Information on demographics and co-morbidities was extracted from medical records. Outcomes of relevance consisted of whether the patient was discharged or deceased (as established in medical records), along with date of each event. We use survival models that account for competing risks. Median age was 60 years (IQR: 48-72), there were fewer women (40.8%) hospitalized than men (59.2%), and the most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (40.9%), diabetes (20.0%) and obesity (19.1%). Patients were hospitalized for a median duration of 8 days (IQR: 5-13), and in-hospital mortality was 18.1%, though it varied substantially across health centers (95%CI: 17.1%-19.2%). Baseline characteristics most associated with in-hospital mortality were respiratory rate (adjusted HR = 3.6, 95%CI: 2.5-5.4 for ≥ 26 breathes/min), older age (adjusted HR = 2.5, 95%CI: 2.0-3.3 for the 80+ age group), and chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR = 2.2, 95%CI: 1.8-2.8). Associations were attenuated when survival models did not account for the competing risk of being discharged. We document lower mortality rates than those in prior studies, likely due to a lower prevalence of comorbidities amongst patients in our sample. Compared with standard Cox models, we find that, when using competing risk models, risk factors have a larger role in explaining COVID-19 mortality. Overall, we provide rigorous evidence describing the characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients for LMICs. Thus, our findings are useful to conduct a more accurate in-hospital monitoring of patient subgroups who may be at greater risk. They also provide valuable guidance for public health and policy efforts in Argentina and other developing countries.

Complexities of protecting children from violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: Providers' and policymakers' best practices, innovations and challenges in 12 countries

BACKGROUND

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has put children at an increased risk of neglect, violence and other human rights violations. Despite growing evidence of its impact on child protective services, there has been a dearth of research from low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

This cross-sectional qualitative study explored service providers' and policymakers' views and experiences of children's protection, in real-time, in the last quarter of 2020.

METHODS

A smartphone app-based survey containing both open- and closed-ended questions was used. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and qualitative content analysis.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Eighty-four respondents participated, including service providers, service managers and policymakers, mostly representing non-governmental organizations (NGOs), civil society organizations (CSOs) and governments across 12 countries (predominantly Kenya, South Africa and the Philippines).

RESULTS

Most respondents reported their sectors had experienced challenges in protecting children from violence - particularly delays in reporting abuse and pursuing justice, and reaching those living in poor and/or rural areas. Good practices and innovations in children's protection during the pandemic were reported in several domains: advocacy and signposting; justice; health care; education and awareness-raising; children's visibility; and virtual service delivery. Community resources and involvement were also highlighted as vital. The ineffectiveness of child protection laws, policies and organizational responses, however, hindered the implementation of effective practices.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated the complexities and interconnectivity of systems, processes and actors and their joint impact on children's protection and rights. Collectively, the findings reinforce the criticality of collaborative, urgent and child-centered responses.

Conducting Health Research in the Current Afghan Society: Challenges, Opportunities, and Recommendations

Research makes a significant contribution to academic excellence and holds the potential to facilitate societal development. Despite the increasing importance of health research in developing new therapies and galvanizing notable progress in public health, the landscape of health research in Afghanistan remains profoundly deficient. This article reveals that health research in Afghanistan requires significant growth to meet the standards set on regional and global grounds.

Seroprevalence and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers: cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19 due to their close contact with infected patients. However, the true burden of COVID-19 among HCWs in Yemen is unknown due to the inadequate availability of healthcare and the subclinical nature of the disease. This study aims to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs in two Yemeni governorates and identify associated factors using a cross-sectional design.

METHOD

A total of 404 HCWs were surveyed from June 2022 to September 2022 in Lahj and AL-Dhalea hospitals. A self-administered questionnaire collected demographic data, COVID-19 infection history, and vaccination status. A total of 404 human sera were tested using a specific electrochemiluminescence immunoassay assay. Association analysis was conducted to identify associations between antibody prevalence and demographic and vaccine-related variables.

RESULT

The median age of the HCWs was 31 (Range 20-64) years, with 65.0% being male and 35.0% female. Of all HCWs, 94% were SARS-CoV-2 seropositive and 77.0% had no confirmed test of COVID-19-related symptoms. There was no significant association between seropositivity and demographic factors such as age, gender, occupation, or COVID-19 vaccination (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was high among HCWs in Yemen, primarily due to natural infection rather than vaccination. Compliance with infection prevention and control measures did not significantly affect seropositivity. This study highlights the need for improved healthcare systems and resources to reduce the burden of COVID-19 and promote infection prevention and control (IPC) measures among HCWs in Yemen.

Antibiotic resistance and the COVID-19 pandemic: A dual crisis with complex challenges in LMICs

Background and Aims

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a global health crisis of mounting urgency, has been further complicated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The intricate relationship between these two phenomena is especially pronounced in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) due to the distinct obstacles encountered by their healthcare systems and policy structures. This study aims to explore the complex challenges arising from the coexistence of these two crises in LMICs and proffer specific recommendations for holistic management.

Methods

An exhaustive bibliographic survey was executed, employing search queries in specialized databases such as PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science's SCI-EXPANDED index. The timeframe for the literature search extended from January 2020 to January 2023. The search strategy employed key terms including antibiotic resistance, AMR, COVID-19 pandemic, low- and middle-income countries, SARS-CoV-2, and LMICs.

Results

The pandemic has aggravated various drivers of AMR in LMICs, including limited capabilities, weak frameworks, and socioeconomic factors. New challenges have emerged, such as disruptions in the antibiotic supply chain and an increased risk of healthcare-associated infections. The interaction between these drivers presents a complex problem that demands a coordinated response. Specific recommendations include strengthening health systems, funding research and innovation, and enhancing infection prevention control measures.

Conclusion

The coexistence of AMR and the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs demands an integrated approach involving multiple stakeholders. Emphasis must be placed on constructing aligned regulatory frameworks, nurturing regional collaborations, and focusing on accessible therapeutic options. The study underscores the necessity for actionable strategies to achieve sustainable access to clean water and sanitation and also highlights the importance of long-term planning, funding, and specialized expertise in emerging modalities like phage therapy.

The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Status and Societal Restrictions in Controlling COVID-19 across the World

To control the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented vaccination and imposed societal restrictions both at the national level and for international travel. As a check of corona status, COVID passes have been issued. A COVID pass could be obtained when either fully vaccinated against COVID-19, or after recovering from a documented COVID-19 episode, or after a recent (24-48 h) negative SARS-CoV-2 antigen test. A global analysis of SARS-CoV-2 immune status determined by past infection and/or vaccination, vaccination rates, as well as societal restrictions in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The data show that across the world, vaccination was more effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections with the delta variant than the omicron variant. Strict societal restrictions could control spread of the virus, but relief of the restrictions was associated with an increase in omicron infections. No significant difference in SARS-CoV-2 infections were found when comparing countries or territories which did or did not implement a COVID pass.

Informal workers in India as an economic shock absorber in the era of COVID-19: A study on policies and practices

BACKGROUND: With greater uncertainties and economic divides in Indian formal and Informal economies; the lockdown in its unprecedented ways severely knocked the crucial vulnerabilities of majorly the informal sector of the economy. METHODS: The study was conducted across the Indian population who have suffered from the bad impact of COVID-19 and the lockdown. The data collection process was conducted during the COVID-19 outbreak from June 2020 to October 2020. Multiple regression analysis and independent-sample t-test were applied to test the hypothesis. RESULTS: The study closely highlights the role of the government system towards non-government organizations those who played a crucial role in the welfare of the informal workers. The results suggest that the most affected group of people in the COVID-19 lockdown are the informal workers who were working on daily wages for their bread and butter. The government endeavor was also found significant in supporting the informal workers.

Evaluation of Various Alternative Economical and High Throughput SARS-CoV-2 Testing Methods within Resource-Limited Settings

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak posed a challenge for diagnostic laboratories worldwide, with low-middle income countries (LMICs) being the most affected. The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is the gold standard method for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the challenge with this method is that it is expensive, which has resulted in under-testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection in many LMICs. Hence, this study aimed to compare and evaluate alternative methods for the mass testing of SARS-CoV-2 infection in laboratories with limited resources to identify cost-effective, faster, and accurate alternatives to the internationally approved kits. A total of 50 residual nasopharyngeal swab samples were used for evaluation and comparison between internationally approved kits (Thermo Fisher PureLink™ RNA Isolation Kit and Thermo Fisher TaqPath™ COVID-19 Assay Kit) and alternative methods (three RNA extraction and four commercial SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assay kits) in terms of the cost analysis, diagnostic accuracy, and turnaround time. In terms of performance, all of the alternative RNA extraction methods evaluated were comparable to the internationally approved kits but were more cost-effective (Lucigen QuickExtract™ RNA Extraction Kit, Bosphore EX-Tract Dry Swab RNA Solution and Sonicator method) and four commercial SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assay kits (Nucleic Acid COVID-19 Test Kit (SARS-CoV-2), abTES^TM COVID-19 qPCR I Kit, PCL COVID19 Speedy RT-PCR Kit, and PCLMD nCoV One-Step RT-PCR Kit) with a sensitivity range of 76-100% and specificity of 96-100%. The cost per sample was reduced by more than 50% when compared to internationally approved kits. When compared to the Thermo Fisher PureLink™ Kit and Thermo Fisher TaqPath™ COVID-19 Assay Kit, the alternative methods had a faster turnaround time, indicating that laboratories with limited resources may be able to process more samples in a day. The above-mentioned cost-effective, fast, and accurate evaluated alternative methods can be used in routine diagnostic laboratories with limited resources for mass testing for SARS-CoV-2 because these were comparable to the internationally approved kits, Thermo Fisher PureLink™ Kit and Thermo Fisher TaqPath™ COVID-19 Assay Kit. The implementation of alternative methods will be the most cost-effective option for testing SARS-CoV-2 infection in LMICs.

Repurposing of the herbal formulations: molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation studies to validate the efficacy of phytocompounds against SARS-CoV-2 proteins

Herbal formulations mentioned in traditional medicinal texts were investigated for in silico effect against SARS-COV-2 proteins involved in various functions of a virus such as attachment, entry, replication, transcription, etc. To repurpose and validate polyherbal formulations, molecular docking was performed to study the interactions of more than 150 compounds from various formulations against the SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation was performed to evaluate the interaction of top scored ligands with the various receptor proteins. The docking results showed that Liquiritic acid, Liquorice acid, Terchebulin, Glabrolide, Casuarinin, Corilagin, Chebulagic acid, Neochebulinic acid, Daturataturin A, and Taraxerol were effective against SARS-COV-2 proteins with higher binding affinities with different proteins. Results of MD simulations validated the stability of ligands from potent formulations with various receptors of SARS-CoV-2. Binding free energy analysis suggested the favourable interactions of phytocompounds with the recpetors. Besides, in silico comparison of the various formulations determined that Pathyadi kwath, Sanjeevani vati, Yashtimadhu, Tribhuvan Keeratiras, and Septillin were more effective than Samshamni vati, AYUSH-64, and Trikatu. Polyherbal formulations having anti-COVID-19 potential can be used for the treatment with adequate monitoring. New formulations may also be developed for systematic trials based on ranking from these studies.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Mathematical modeling to study the impact of immigration on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study for Venezuela

We propose two different mathematical models to study the effect of immigration on the COVID-19 pandemic. The first model does not consider immigration, whereas the second one does. Both mathematical models consider five different subpopulations: susceptible, exposed, infected, asymptomatic carriers, and recovered. We find the basic reproduction number R₀ using the next-generation matrix method for the mathematical model without immigration. This threshold parameter is paramount because it allows us to characterize the evolution of the disease and identify what parameters substantially affect the COVID-19 pandemic outcome. We focus on the Venezuelan scenario, where immigration and emigration have been important over recent years, particularly during the pandemic. We show that the estimation of the transmission rates of the SARS-CoV-2 are affected when the immigration of infected people is considered. This has an important consequence from a public health perspective because if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, we can expect that the SARS-CoV-2 would disappear. Thus, if the basic reproduction number is slightly above one, we can predict that some mild non-pharmaceutical interventions would be enough to decrease the number of infected people. The results show that the dynamics of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through the population must consider immigration to obtain better insight into the outcomes and create awareness in the population regarding the population flow.

Modelling how face masks and symptoms-based quarantine synergistically and cost-effectively reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission vary in their feasibility, appropriateness and effectiveness in different contexts. In Bangladesh a national lockdown implemented in March 2020 exacerbated poverty and was untenable long-term. A resurgence in 2021 warranted renewed NPIs. We sought to identify NPIs that were feasible in this context and explore potential synergies between interventions.

METHODS

We developed an SEIR model for Dhaka District, parameterised from literature values and calibrated to data from Bangladesh. We discussed scenarios and parameterisations with policymakers with the aid of an interactive app. These discussions guided modelling of lockdown and two post-lockdown measures considered feasible to deliver; symptoms-based household quarantining and compulsory mask-wearing. We compared NPI scenarios on deaths, hospitalisations relative to capacity, working days lost, and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Lockdowns alone were predicted to delay the first epidemic peak but could not prevent overwhelming of the health service and were costly in lost working days. Impacts of post-lockdown interventions depended heavily on compliance. Assuming 80% compliance, symptoms-based household quarantining alone could not prevent hospitalisations exceeding capacity, whilst mask-wearing prevented overwhelming health services and was cost-effective given masks of high filtration efficiency. Combining masks with quarantine increased their impact. Recalibration to surging cases in 2021 suggested potential for a further wave in 2021, dependent on uncertainties in case reporting and immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

Masks and symptoms-based household quarantining synergistically prevent transmission, and are cost-effective in Bangladesh. Our interactive app was valuable in supporting decision-making, with mask-wearing being mandated early, and community teams being deployed to support quarantining across Dhaka. These measures likely contributed to averting the worst public health impacts, but delivering an effective response with consistent compliance across the population has been challenging. In the event of a further resurgence, concurrent messaging to increase compliance with both mask-wearing and quarantine is recommended.

Estimates of the Global Burden of COVID-19 and the Value of Broad and Equitable Access to COVID-19 Vaccines

The objectives of this research were to produce a macro-level overview of the global COVID-19 burden and estimate the value of access to COVID-19 vaccines. A targeted literature review collated evidence of the burden. Linear modelling and data analysis estimated the health and economic effects of COVID-19 vaccines delivered in 2021, and whether additional value could have been achieved with broader and more equitable access. By 1 December 2020, there had been an estimated 17 million excess deaths due to COVID-19. Low-income countries allocated more than 30% of their healthcare budgets to COVID-19, compared to 8% in high-income countries. All country income groups experienced gross domestic product (GDP) growth lower than predicted in 2020. If all 92 countries eligible for COVAX Advance Market Committee (AMC), access had reached 40% vaccination coverage in 2021, 120% more excess deaths would have been averted, equivalent to USD 5 billion (109) in savings to healthcare systems. Every USD spent by advanced economies on vaccinations for less advanced economies averted USD 28 of economic losses in advanced economies and USD 29 in less advanced economies. The cost to high-income countries when not all countries are vaccinated far outweighs the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally.

Perception of Global Participants of ITEC Nations on Country's Preparedness and Response to COVID-19 Pandemic

Background

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed the public health preparedness and response system across the world. The current study was conducted to gauge the perception of public health professionals of Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) countries regarding the preparedness and responses of their countries in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methodology

Three capacity-building programs, namely “Managing COVID-19 Pandemic–Experience and Best practices of India” were conducted by PGIMER, Chandigarh, for public health professionals from ITEC countries from April to May 2021 in which 97 participants from 13 countries have participated. The tools used in the study were adapted from WHO's COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response (SPRP), Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, interim guidelines for Critical preparedness, readiness and response actions for COVID-19, and a strategic framework for emergency preparedness, and finalized using Delphi technique. The overall preparedness of managing COVID-19 was rated using five-point Likert scale, whereas the overall score for the country in combating the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed using 10 point scale.

Results

We found that the perception of public health professionals to government response regarding COVID-19 for fostering improvement on COVID-19 situation was “moderate” with respect to transmission and surveillance mechanism, uniform reporting mechanism, and availability of adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) for health workers. However, the participants rated government response as “poor” in the availability of multisectoral national operational plan, human resource capacity, availability of trained rapid response team (RRT), preparedness in prevention and clinical management, training of healthcare workers, communication and community engagement strategies, facilities to test samples of patients, and transparent governance and administration.

Conclusion

A poor level of preparedness of countries in diverse domains of managing the COVID-19 pandemic was observed. As the global threat of COVID-19 is still looming, great efforts on building a robust preparedness and response system for COVID-19 and similar pandemics are urgently required.

Risk factors for hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: a prospective cohort study in South Sudan and Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

OBJECTIVES

Our study described demographic characteristics, exposures and symptoms, and comorbidities to evaluate risk factors of hospitalisation and mortality among cases in Juba, South Sudan (SSD) and North and South Kivu in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort of COVID-19 cases.

METHODS

Individuals presenting for care at one of five study facilities in SSD (n=1) or DRC (n=4) or referred from home-based care by mobile medical teams between December 2020 and June 2021 were eligible for enrolment. Demographic characteristics, COVID-19 exposures, symptoms at presentation, as well as acute and chronic comorbidities, were evaluated using a standard questionnaire at enrolment. Disease progression was characterised by location of care using mixed-effects regression models.

RESULTS

751 individuals were eligible for enrolment. Among cases followed to discharge or death (n=519), 375 were enrolled outpatients (75.7%). A similar number of cases were enrolled in DRC (n=262) and SSD (n=257). Overall mortality was 4.8% (95% CI: 3.2% to 6.9%); there were no outpatient deaths. Patients presenting with any symptoms had higher odds of hospitalisation (adjusted OR (AOR) 2.78, 95% CI 1.47 to 5.27) and all deaths occurred among symptomatic individuals. Odds of both hospitalisation and mortality were greatest among cases with respiratory symptoms; presence of low oxygen levels on enrolment was strongly associated with both hospitalisation (AOR 7.77, 95% CI 4.22 to 14.29) and mortality (AOR 25.29, 95% CI 6.42 to 99.54). Presence of more than one chronic comorbidity was associated with 4.96 (95% CI 1.51 to 16.31) times greater odds of death; neither infectious comorbidities evaluated, nor malnutrition, were significantly associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with prior literature, older age, low oxygen level, other respiratory symptoms and chronic comorbidities were all risk factors for mortality. Patients presenting with these characteristics were more likely to be hospitalised, providing evidence of effective triage and referral.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04568499.

Survival analysis of COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia: A hospital-based study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is a global public health problem causing high mortality worldwide. This study aimed to assess time to death and predictors of mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in the Arsi zone treatment center.

METHOD

We performed a retrospective observational cohort study using medical records of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases hospitalized at Bokoji Hospital COVID-19 treatment center from 1st July 2020 to 5th March 2021. We extracted data on the patients' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics from medical records of hospitalized patients retrospectively. We carried out Kaplan Meier and Cox regression analysis to estimate survival probability and investigate predictors of COVID-19 death 5% level of significance. The Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was estimated and interpreted for predictors of time to death in the final cox model.

RESULT

A total of 422 COVID-19 patients treated were analyzed, of these more than one tenth (11.14%) deaths, with a mortality rate of 6.35 cases per 1000 person-days. The majority (87.2%) of deaths occurred within the first 14 days of admission, with a median time-to-death of nine (IQR: 8-12) days. We found patients that age between 31 and 45 years (aHR = 2.55; 95% CI: (1.03, 6.34), older than 46 years (aHR = 2.59 (1.27, 5.30), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR = 4.60, 95%CI: (2.37, 8.91), Chronic kidney disease (aHR = 5.58, 95%CI: (1.70, 18.37), HIV/AIDS (aHR = 3.66, 95%CI: (1.20, 11.10), admission to the Intensive care unit(aHR = 7.44, 95%CI: (1.82, 30.42), and being on intranasal oxygen care (aHR = 6.27, 95%CI: (2.75, 4.30) were independent risk factors increasing risk of death from COVID-19 disease than their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

The risk of dying due to COVID-19 disease was higher among patients with HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney diseases. We also found that older people, those admitted to ICU, and patients who received intranasal oxygen care had a higher risk of dying due to COVID-19 disease. Therefore, close monitoring hospitalized patients that are old aged and those with comorbidities after hospitalization is crucial within the first ten days of admission.

The COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent

In December 2019, a new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was identified in China. This virus spread quickly and in March, 2020, it was declared a pandemic. Scientists predicted the worst scenario to occur in Africa since it was the least developed of the continents in terms of human development index, lagged behind others in achievement of the United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs), has inadequate resources for provision of social services, and has many fragile states. In addition, there were relatively few research reporting findings on COVID-19 in Africa. On the contrary, the more developed countries reported higher disease incidences and mortality rates. However, for Africa, the earlier predictions and modelling into COVID-19 incidence and mortality did not fit into the reality. Therefore, the main objective of this forum is to bring together infectious diseases and public health experts to give an overview of COVID-19 in Africa and share their thoughts and opinions on why Africa behaved the way it did. Furthermore, the experts highlight what needs to be done to support Africa to consolidate the status quo and overcome the negative effects of COVID-19 so as to accelerate attainment of the SDGs.

Factors associated with COVID-19 mortality in municipalities in the state of São Paulo (Brazil): an ecological study

Background:

The mortality rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the state of São Paulo is highly heterogeneous. This study investigated geographic, economic, social, and health-related factors associated with this discrepancy.

Methods:

An ecological study compared COVID-19 mortality rates according to geographic, economic, social, and health-related variables during initial infection of 2.5% of the population in municipalities with more than 30,000 inhabitants.

Results:

Mortality was positively associated with demographic density and social inequality (Gini index), and inversely associated with HDI income and longevity of these municipalities, accounting for 33.2% of the variation in mortality.

Conclusions:

Social determinants influenced COVID-19 outcomes.

Knowledge, attitude, and practices related to COVID-19 among poor and marginalized communities in central India: A cross-sectional study

COVID-19 has led to unprecedented challenges and requires local and global efforts for its mitigation. Poor and marginalized populations are more vulnerable to the health, social and economic effects of the pandemic. The objective of this study was to know about the knowledge, attitude and practices towards COVID-19 among poor and marginalized communities in central India and the factors associated with them so that effective risk communication messages can be designed and community engagement needs and strategies can be identified. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using an Interactive Voice Response System as part of the NISHTHA-Swasthya Vani intervention, which is a platform for dissemination of key messages related to COVID-19, social welfare schemes, national health programs and other important information. A total of 1673 respondents participated in the survey. The mean knowledge, attitude and practice scores of the respondents was 4.06 (SD = 1.67) out of 8, 2.46 (SD = 1.18) out of 4 and 3.65 (SD = 0.73) out of 4 respectively. More than 50% respondents exhibited stigma towards recovered COVID-19 patients(n = 347) and towards health workers(n = 384) catering to COVID-19 patients. The factors associated with higher KAP scores were education, occupation, age and primary source of information on COVID-19. There was a positive correlation between knowledge and attitude (co-efficient: 0.32) and a negative correlation between knowledge and stigma (co-efficient: -0.28). The knowledge, and attitude scores related to COVID-19 were low among the poor and marginalized communities, while the prevalence of stigma was high. Therefore, there is a need for effective risk communication for these communities through alternate channels.

Adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours in India from May to December 2020: evidence from a nationally representative longitudinal survey

OBJECTIVES

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, behavioural interventions to reduce disease transmission have been central to public health policy worldwide. Sustaining individual protective behaviour is especially important in low-income and middle-income settings, where health systems have fewer resources and access to vaccination is limited. This study seeks to assess time trends in COVID-19 protective behaviour in India.

DESIGN

Nationally representative, panel-based, longitudinal study.

SETTING

We conducted a panel survey of Indian households to understand how the adoption of COVID-19 protective behaviours has changed over time. Our data span peaks and valleys of disease transmission over May-December 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Respondents included 3719 adults from 1766 Indian households enrolled in the Harmonised Diagnostic Assessment of Dementia for the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India.

ANALYSIS

We used ordinary least squares regression analysis to quantify time trends in protective behaviours.

RESULTS

We find a 30.6 percentage point (95% CI (26.7 to 34.5); p<0.01) decline in protective behaviours related to social distancing over the observation period. Mask wearing and handwashing, in contrast, decreased by only 4.3 percentage points (95% CI (0.97 to 7.6); p<0.05) from a high base. Our conclusions are unchanged after adjusting for recorded COVID-19 caseload and nationwide COVID-19 containment policy; we also observe significant declines across socioeconomic strata spanning age, gender, education and urbanicity.

CONCLUSION

We argue that these changes reflect, at least in part, 'COVID-19 fatigue,' where adherence to social distancing becomes more difficult over time irrespective of the surrounding disease environment.

Machine learning for emerging infectious disease field responses

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), including the latest COVID-19 pandemic, have emerged and raised global public health crises in recent decades. Without existing protective immunity, an EID may spread rapidly and cause mass casualties in a very short time. Therefore, it is imperative to identify cases with risk of disease progression for the optimized allocation of medical resources in case medical facilities are overwhelmed with a flood of patients. This study has aimed to cope with this challenge from the aspect of preventive medicine by exploiting machine learning technologies. The study has been based on 83,227 hospital admissions with influenza-like illness and we analysed the risk effects of 19 comorbidities along with age and gender for severe illness or mortality risk. The experimental results revealed that the decision rules derived from the machine learning based prediction models can provide valuable guidelines for the healthcare policy makers to develop an effective vaccination strategy. Furthermore, in case the healthcare facilities are overwhelmed by patients with EID, which frequently occurred in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the frontline physicians can incorporate the proposed prediction models to triage patients suffering minor symptoms without laboratory tests, which may become scarce during an EID disaster. In conclusion, our study has demonstrated an effective approach to exploit machine learning technologies to cope with the challenges faced during the outbreak of an EID.

Impact of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic on Neonatal Nutrition: Focus on Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Purpose of Review

This review serves to account for the published literature regarding the changing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on neonatal nutrition in low- and middle-income countries.

Recent Findings

Initial national and international guidelines regarding breastfeeding were often contradictory. Lack of clear guidelines resulted in separation of mother-neonate dyads and the reliance on non-human sources of milk at institutional levels. Mothers and families were less likely to initiate and/or continue breastfeed during the pandemic due to confusion regarding guidelines, lack of support for lactation, and concern for infection transmission to their neonates. Continued research in neonatal nutrition, however, continues to support the use of breastmilk as the optimal nutritional source for neonates.

Summary

Despite concerns for increased risk of COVID-19 transmission with breastfeeding, the use of breastmilk with preserved and combined mother-baby care is associated with improved neonatal nutrition.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Aden, Yemen: A population-based study

Background

In Yemen, initial surveillance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) focused primarily on patients with symptoms or severe disease. The full spectrum of the disease remains unclear. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first seroprevalence study performed in Yemen.

Methods

This cross-sectional investigation included 2001 participants from all age groups from four districts in Aden, southern Yemen. A multi-stage sampling method was used. Data were collected using a well-structured questionnaire, and blood samples were taken. Healgen COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT) Cassettes were used in all participants. All positive RDTs and 14% of negative RDTs underwent enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing (WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Ab ELISA Kit) for confirmation.

Results

In total, 549 of 2001 participants were RDT positive and confirmed by ELISA, giving a prevalence of COVID-19 of 27.4%. The prevalence of immunoglobulin G was 25%. The prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 in the entire study group was 7.9%. The highest prevalence was observed in Al-Mansurah district (33.4%). Regarding sociodemographic factors, the prevalence of COVID-19 was significantly higher among females, housewives and subjects with a history of contact with a COVID-19 patient: 32%, 31% and 39%, respectively.

Conclusion

This study found high prevalence of COVID-19 in the study population. Household transmission was common.

Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar

For emerging epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying travel is a key component of developing accurate predictive models of disease spread to inform public health planning. However, in many LMICs, traditional data sets on travel such as commuting surveys as well as non-traditional sources such as mobile phone data are lacking, or, where available, have only rarely been leveraged by the public health community. Evaluating the accuracy of available data to measure transmission-relevant travel may be further hampered by limited reporting of suspected and laboratory confirmed infections. Here, we leverage case data collected as part of a COVID-19 dashboard collated via daily reports from the Malagasy authorities on reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the 22 regions of Madagascar. We compare the order of the timing of when cases were reported with predictions from a SARS-CoV-2 metapopulation model of Madagascar informed using various measures of connectivity including a gravity model based on different measures of distance, Internal Migration Flow data, and mobile phone data. Overall, the models based on mobile phone connectivity and the gravity-based on Euclidean distance best predicted the observed spread. The ranks of the regions most remote from the capital were more difficult to predict but interestingly, regions where the mobile phone connectivity model was more accurate differed from those where the gravity model was most accurate. This suggests that there may be additional features of mobility or connectivity that were consistently underestimated using all approaches but are epidemiologically relevant. This work highlights the importance of data availability and strengthening collaboration among different institutions with access to critical data - models are only as good as the data that they use, so building towards effective data-sharing pipelines is essential.

Worldwide epidemiology of neuro-coronavirus disease in children: lessons for the next pandemic

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has overwhelmed the global community, negatively impacting patient health and research efforts; associated neurological manifestations are a significant cause of morbidity. This review outlines the worldwide epidemiology of neurologic manifestations of different SARS-CoV-2 clinical pediatric phenotypes, including acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) and postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). We discuss strategies to develop adaptive global research platforms for future investigation into emerging pediatric neurologic conditions.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multicenter, multinational studies show that neurological manifestations of acute COVID-19, such as smell/taste disorders, headache, and stroke, are common in hospitalized adults (82%) and children (22%), associated with increased mortality in adults. Neurological manifestations of MIS-C are reported in up to 20% of children, including headache, irritability, and encephalopathy. Data on PASC are emerging and include fatigue, cognitive changes, and headache. Reports of neurological manifestations in each phenotype are limited by lack of pediatric-informed case definitions, common data elements, and resources.

SUMMARY

Coordinated, well resourced, multinational investigation into SARS-CoV-2-related neurological manifestations in children is critical to rapid identification of global and region-specific risk factors, and developing treatment and mitigation strategies for the current pandemic and future health neurologic emergencies.

Disparity between knowledge and practice regarding COVID-19 in Thailand: A cross-sectional study of older adults

The efficacy of the public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 is influenced by health literacy which includes the level of knowledge about the disease and the preventive behaviours adopted by individuals. Thailand, being a low- and middle-income country with an ageing society, has to consider both the challenges that its health system has in disseminating information and the disparities in health literacy among its older population. This study investigated the knowledge and behaviour of older adults in Thailand regarding COVID-19 using the Impact of COVID-19 on Older Persons in Thailand, a cross-sectional survey. The data was primarily collected online and included 1,230 adults aged at least 60 years from nine provinces of the five regions of the country. The associated factors with the health literacy outcomes were tested using bivariate logistic regression analyses. It was observed that 43% of the older adults in the sample had proper knowledge of the disease and 33% adopted preventive behaviours. Knowledge about the disease was not associated with preventive behaviour. The associated factors common between the increased levels of knowledge and adoption of behaviours were rural area residence and higher educational attainment levels. Obtaining information from the internet was observed to increase knowledge while having the television and radio as sources of information had negative relationship. Many older adults continued to be employed during the lockdown period and this was associated with decreased adoption of preventive behaviour. The context of vulnerable populations, particularly older adults, is different with regard to their access to information and concern about income. Health information has to be tailored for targeted populations. Their needs also have to be addressed as they have increased risks because of financial and health susceptibilities.

How the scientific community responded to the COVID-19 pandemic: A subject-level time-trend bibliometric analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has triggered an avalanche of research publications, the various aspects of which need to be assessed. The objective of this study is to determine the scientific community's response patterns to COVID-19 through a bibliometric analysis of the time-trends, global contribution, international collaboration, open-access provision, science domains of focus, and the behavior of journals.

METHODS

The bibliographic records on COVID-19 literature were retrieved from both PubMed and Scopus. The period for searching was set from November 1, 2019, to April 15, 2021. The bibliographic data were coupled with COVID-19 incidence to explore possible association, as well as World Bank indicators and classification of economies.

RESULTS

A total of 159132 records were included in the study. Following the escalation of incidences of COVID-19 in late 2020 and early 2021, the monthly publication count made a new peak in March 2021 at 20505. Overall, 125155 (78.6%) were national, 22548 (14.2%) were bi-national, and 11429 (7.2%) were multi-national. Low-income countries with 928 (66.8%) international publications had the highest percentage of international. The open-access provision decreased from 85.5% in February 2020 to 62.0% in April 2021. As many as 82841 (70.8%) publications were related to health sciences, followed by life sciences 27031 (23.1%), social sciences 20291 (17.3%), and physical sciences 15141 (12.9%). The top three medical subjects in publications were general internal medicine, public health, and infectious diseases with 28.9%, 18.3%, and 12.6% of medical publications, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between the incidence and publication count indicated the scientific community's interest in the ongoing situation and timely response to it. Only one-fifth of publications resulted from international collaboration, which might lead to redundancy without adding significant value. Our study underscores the necessity of policies for attraction of international collaboration and direction of vital funds toward domains of higher priority.

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines, a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODS

We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a "Minimum Health Standards" policy, MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and interventions.

FINDINGS

Population age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 13-27%. The February 2021 case detection rate was estimated at ~8%, population recovered at ~9%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, mobility, and MHS adherence. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low population immunity and detection rates and new variants of concern.

Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar

For emerging epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying travel is a key component of developing accurate predictive models of disease spread to inform public health planning. However, in many LMICs, traditional data sets on travel such as commuting surveys as well as non-traditional sources such as mobile phone data are lacking, or, where available, have only rarely been leveraged by the public health community. Evaluating the accuracy of available data to measure transmission-relevant travel may be further hampered by limited reporting of suspected and laboratory confirmed infections. Here, we leverage case data collected as part of a COVID-19 dashboard collated via daily reports from the Malagasy authorities on reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the 22 regions of Madagascar. We compare the order of the timing of when cases were reported with predictions from a SARS-CoV-2 metapopulation model of Madagascar informed using various measures of connectivity including a gravity model based on different measures of distance, Internal Migration Flow data, and mobile phone data. Overall, the models based on mobile phone connectivity and the gravity-based on Euclidean distance best predicted the observed spread. The ranks of the regions most remote from the capital were more difficult to predict but interestingly, regions where the mobile phone connectivity model was more accurate differed from those where the gravity model was most accurate. This suggests that there may be additional features of mobility or connectivity that were consistently underestimated using all approaches, but are epidemiologically relevant. This work highlights the importance of data availability and strengthening collaboration among different institutions with access to critical data - models are only as good as the data that they use, so building towards effective data-sharing pipelines is essential.

The COVID-19 pandemic in francophone West Africa: from the first cases to responses in seven countries

Background

In early March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit West Africa. In response, countries in the region quickly set up crisis management committees and implemented drastic measures to stem the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The objective of this article is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 in seven Francophone West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal) as well as the public health measures decided upon during the first 7 months of the pandemic.

Methods

Our method is based on quantitative and qualitative data from the pooling of information from a COVID-19 data platform and collected by a network of interdisciplinary collaborators present in the seven countries. Descriptive and spatial analyses of quantitative epidemiological data, as well as content analyses of qualitative data on public measures and management committees were performed.

Results

Attack rates (October 2020) for COVID-19 have ranged from 20 per 100,000 inhabitants (Benin) to more than 94 per 100,000 inhabitants (Senegal). All these countries reacted quickly to the crisis, in some cases before the first reported infection, and implemented public measures in a relatively homogeneous manner. None of the countries implemented country-wide lockdowns, but some implemented partial or local containment measures. At the end of June 2020, countries began to lift certain restrictive measures, sometimes under pressure from the general population or from certain economic sectors.

Conclusion

Much research on COVID-19 remains to be conducted in West Africa to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and to further examine the state responses to ensure their appropriateness and adaptation to the national contexts.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11529-7.

Direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on perinatal outcomes in low- and middle-income countries

Similar to previous outbreaks, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will have both direct and indirect effects on perinatal outcomes, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Limited data on the direct impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy shows women who are Black, obese and with co-morbidities are at higher risk of hospitalisation due to COVID-19. Younger age groups in Africa and South Asia have shown increased COVID-19 mortality. Indigenous pregnant women in Pacific Island countries are likely to be high risk for severe outcomes from COVID-19 due to high rates of diabetes and obesity. It is important to involve pregnant women in research, especially with regards to vaccine development and therapeutics.

An interrupted time series analysis of the lockdown policies in India: a national-level analysis of COVID-19 incidence

India implemented a national mandatory lockdown policy (Lockdown 1.0) on 24 March 2020 in response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The policy was revised in three subsequent stages (Lockdown 2.0–4.0 between 15 April to 18 May 2020), and restrictions were lifted (Unlockdown 1.0) on 1 June 2020. This study evaluated the effect of lockdown policy on the COVID-19 incidence rate at the national level to inform policy response for this and future pandemics. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with a segmented regression model using publicly available data on daily reported new COVID-19 cases between 2 March 2020 and 1 September 2020. National-level data from Google Community Mobility Reports during this timeframe were also used in model development and robustness checks. Results showed an 8% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 6–9%] reduction in the change in incidence rate per day after Lockdown 1.0 compared to prior to the Lockdown order, with an additional reduction of 3% (95% CI = 2–3%) after Lockdown 4.0, suggesting an 11% (95% CI = 9–12%) reduction in the change in COVID-19 incidence after Lockdown 4.0 compared to the period before Lockdown 1.0. Uptake of the lockdown policy is indicated by decreased mobility and attenuation of the increasing incidence of COVID-19. The increasing rate of incident case reports in India was attenuated after the lockdown policy was implemented compared to before, and this reduction was maintained after the restrictions were eased, suggesting that the policy helped to ‘flatten the curve’ and buy additional time for pandemic preparedness, response and recovery.

Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020. Currently, there are only a few approved vaccines, each with different efficacies and mechanisms of action. Moreover, vaccination programs in different regions may vary due to differences in implementation, for instance, simply the availability of the vaccine. In this article, we study the impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Then we study different potential scenarios regarding the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. We construct a compartmental mathematical model and use computational methodologies to study these different scenarios. Thus, we are able to identify some key factors to reach the aims of the vaccination programs. We use some metrics related to the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of the efficacy of the vaccine and the pace of the vaccine inoculation. We found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes. However, the rate of vaccine administration has a higher impact in reducing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. This result shows that health institutions need to focus on increasing the vaccine inoculation pace and create awareness in the population about the importance of COVID-19 vaccines.

African COVID-19 Critical Care Outcomes Study (ACCCOS) Investigators. Patient care and clinical outcomes for patients with COVID-19 infection admitted to African high-care or intensive care units (ACCCOS): a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

There have been insufficient data for African patients with COVID-19 who are critically ill. The African COVID-19 Critical Care Outcomes Study (ACCCOS) aimed to determine which resources, comorbidities, and critical care interventions are associated with mortality in this patient population.

METHODS

The ACCCOS study was a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study in adults (aged 18 years or older) with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection who were referred to intensive care or high-care units in 64 hospitals in ten African countries (ie, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, and South Africa). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality censored at 30 days. We studied the factors (ie, human and facility resources, patient comorbidities, and critical care interventions) that were associated with mortality in these adult patients. This study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04367207.

FINDINGS

From May to December, 2020, 6779 patients were referred to critical care. Of these, 3752 (55·3%) patients were admitted and 3140 (83·7%) patients from 64 hospitals in ten countries participated (mean age 55·6 years; 1890 [60·6%] of 3118 participants were male). The hospitals had a median of two intensivists (IQR 1-4) and pulse oximetry was available to all patients in 49 (86%) of 57 sites. In-hospital mortality within 30 days of admission was 48·2% (95% CI 46·4-50·0; 1483 of 3077 patients). Factors that were independently associated with mortality were increasing age per year (odds ratio 1·03; 1·02-1·04); HIV/AIDS (1·91; 1·31-2·79); diabetes (1·25; 1·01-1·56); chronic liver disease (3·48; 1·48-8·18); chronic kidney disease (1·89; 1·28-2·78); delay in admission due to a shortage of resources (2·14; 1·42-3·22); quick sequential organ failure assessment score at admission (for one factor [1·44; 1·01-2·04], for two factors [2·0; 1·33-2·99], and for three factors [3·66, 2·12-6·33]); respiratory support (high flow oxygenation [2·72; 1·46-5·08]; continuous positive airway pressure [3·93; 2·13-7·26]; invasive mechanical ventilation [15·27; 8·51-27·37]); cardiorespiratory arrest within 24 h of admission (4·43; 2·25-8·73); and vasopressor requirements (3·67; 2·77-4·86). Steroid therapy was associated with survival (0·55; 0·37-0·81). There was no difference in outcome associated with female sex (0·86; 0·69-1·06).

INTERPRETATION

Mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 is higher in African countries than reported from studies done in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Increased mortality was associated with insufficient critical care resources, as well as the comorbidities of HIV/AIDS, diabetes, chronic liver disease, and kidney disease, and severity of organ dysfunction at admission.

FUNDING

The ACCCOS was partially supported by a grant from the Critical Care Society of Southern Africa.

Women's Narratives about COVID-19, Preventive Practices and Sources of Information in Northwestern Tanzania

COVID-19 has affected millions of people across the world. We conducted a phone based qualitative study to explore women’s perceptions of COVID-19, knowledge of its symptoms, transmission, and prevention practices in Northwestern Tanzania. We also examined their sources of information about the disease. Findings show that much of women’s framing of etiology, symptoms, and transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) greatly reflects the World Health Organization (WHO)/Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) frame. Their preventive practices against COVID-19 included the biomedical, cultural, and religious frames, as participants engaged traditional practices and spiritual interventions alongside public health recommendations. Mass media was the main source of information about COVID-19, and one of the trusted sources, in addition to religious and local leaders. To be effective, health promotion programs on pandemics should make more use of the mass media, and communal networks to reach populations.

The impact of COVID-19 on the well-being and cognition of older adults living in the United States and Latin America

BACKGROUND

In the COVID-19 pandemic, older adults from vulnerable ethnoracial groups are at high risk of infection, hospitalization, and death. We aimed to explore the pandemic's impact on the well-being and cognition of older adults living in the United States (US), Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Peru.

METHODS

1,608 (646 White, 852 Latino, 77 Black, 33 Asian; 72% female) individuals from the US and four Latin American countries aged ≥ 55 years completed an online survey regarding well-being and cognition during the pandemic between May and September 2020. Outcome variables (pandemic impact, discrimination, loneliness, purpose of life, subjective cognitive concerns) were compared across four US ethnoracial groups and older adults living in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Peru.

FINDINGS

Mean age for all participants was 66.7 (SD = 7.7) years and mean education was 15.4 (SD = 2.7) years. Compared to Whites, Latinos living in the US reported greater economic impact (p < .001, ηp 2  = 0.031); while Blacks reported experiencing discrimination more often (p < .001, ηp 2  = 0.050). Blacks and Latinos reported more positive coping (p < .001, ηp 2  = 0.040). Compared to Latinos living in the US, Latinos in Chile, Mexico, and Peru reported greater pandemic impact, Latinos in Mexico and Peru reported more positive coping, Latinos in Argentina, Mexico, and Peru had greater economic impact, and Latinos in Argentina, Chile, and Peru reported less discrimination.

INTERPRETATION

The COVID-19 pandemic has differentially impacted the well-being of older ethnically diverse individuals in the US and Latin America. Future studies should examine how mediators like income and coping skills modify the pandemic's impact.

FUNDING

Massachusetts General Hospital Department of Psychiatry.

Psychological distress during COVID-19 pandemic in low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of older persons in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 situation in Thailand was controlled with various social measures. Much of the information covered in the media and in studies focused on the public health and economic aspects of the pandemic. This study aimed to explore the psychological well-being of older people, which is important especially in an ageing society categorised as low income or middle income due to the limits of economic and healthcare resources.

SETTING

The impact of COVID-19 on older persons in Thailand, an online survey, taken across nine provinces within the five regions of the country.

PARTICIPANTS

Information was collected from 1230 adults aged at least 60 years old.If an older person was illiterate, unable to access the internet or had a disability preventing them from responding to the survey, an intermediary residing in the community conducted the survey interview.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The analysis focused on the worries of older adults and the factors associated with psychological distress experienced during the pandemic using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The majority of people aged at least 60 years old experienced psychological distress during COVID-19. Employment loss (OR 1.08, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.38), inadequate income (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.44) and debt incursion (OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.57 to 4.80) were detrimental to psychological well-being. The negative changes in the perception of their health status (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.99) and decreased life satisfaction (OR 1.49, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.87) also weighed on older Thais. The protective factors for psychological well-being were residing in rural areas (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.61) and being married (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.01).

CONCLUSION

Observing the concerns of the older population is important for introducing policies that can alleviate their precarious financial and health statuses.

COVID-19 in Oromia Region of Ethiopia: a review of the first 6 months' surveillance data

INTRODUCTION

Despite unrelenting efforts to contain its spread, COVID-19 is still causing unprecedented global crises. Ethiopia reported its first case on 13 March 2020 but has an accelerated case load and geographical distribution recently. In this article, we described the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Oromia Region, the largest and most populous region in Ethiopia, during the early months of the outbreak.

METHODS

We analysed data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Oromia Regional Health Bureau. We included all reverse transcription-PCR-confirmed cases reported from the region between 13 March and 13 September 2020.

RESULTS

COVID-19 was confirmed in 8955 (5.5%) of 164 206 tested individuals. The test positivity rate increased from an average of 1.0% in the first 3 months to 6.3% in August and September. About 70% (6230) of the cases were men; the mean age was 30.0 years (SD=13.3), and 90.5% were <50 years of age. Only 64 (0.7%) of the cases had symptoms at diagnosis. Cough was the most common among symptomatic cases reported in 48 (75.0%), while fever was the least. Overall, 4346 (48.5%) have recovered from the virus; and a total of 52 deaths were reported with a case fatality rate of 1.2%. However, we should interpret the reported case fatality rate cautiously since in 44 (84.6%) of those reported as COVID-19 death, the virus was detected from dead bodies.

CONCLUSION

Despite the steady increase in the number of reported COVID-19 cases, Ethiopia has so far avoided the feared catastrophe from the pandemic due to the milder and asymptomatic nature of the disease. However, with the current pattern of widespread community transmission, the danger posed by the pandemic remains real. Thus, the country should focus on averting COVID-19-related humanitarian crisis through strengthening COVID-19 surveillance and targeted testing for the most vulnerable groups.

Oral Drug Delivery: Conventional to Long Acting New-Age Designs

The Oral route of administration forms the heartwood of the ever-growing tree of drug delivery technology. It is one of the most preferred dosage forms among patients and controlled release community. Despite the high patient compliance, the deliveries of anti-cancerous drugs, vaccines, proteins, etc. via the oral route are limited and have recorded a very low bioavailability. The oral administration must overcome the physiological barriers (low solubility, permeation and early degradation) to achieve efficient and sustained delivery. This review aims at highlighting the conventional and modern-age strategies that address some of these physiological barriers. The modern age designs include the 3D printed devices and formulations. The superiority of 3D dosage forms over conventional cargos is summarized with a focus on long-acting designs. The innovations in Pharmaceutical organizations (Lyndra, Assertio and Intec) that have taken giant steps towards commercialization of long-acting vehicles are discussed. The recent advancements made in the arena of oral peptide delivery are also highlighted. The review represents a comprehensive journey from Nano-formulations to micro-fabricated oral implants aiming at specific patient-centric designs.

Worldwide inverse correlation between Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunization and COVID-19 mortality

Purpose

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to all countries in the world, and different countries have been impacted differently. The study aims to understand what factors contribute to different COVID-19 impacts at the country level.

Methods

Multivariate statistical analyses were used to evaluate COVID-19 deaths and cases relative to nine other demographic and socioeconomic factors in all countries and regions of the world using data as of August 1, 2020. The factors analyzed in the study include a country’s total COVID-19 deaths and cases per million population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population density, virus tests per million population, median age, government response stringency index, hospital beds availability per thousand population, extreme poverty rate, Bacille Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination rate, and diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis (DTP3) immunization rate.

Results

The study reveals that COVID-19 deaths per million population in a country most significantly correlates, inversely, with the country’s BCG vaccination rate (r =  − 0.50, p = 5.3e-5), and also significantly correlates a country’s per capita GDP (r = 0.39, p = 7.4e-3) and median age (r = 0.30, p = 0.042), while COVID-19 cases per million population significantly correlate with per capita GDP and tests per thousand population. To control for possible confounding effects of age, the correlation was assessed in countries propensity score matched for age. The inverse correlation between BCG vaccination rates and COVID-19 case (r =  − 0.30, p = 0.02) and death (r =  − 0.42, p = 0.0007) remained significant among the top 61 countries with the highest median age.

Conclusion

This study contributes to a growing body of evidence supporting the notion that BCG vaccination may be protective against COVID-19 mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s15010-020-01566-6.

Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states

Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.

Covid-19 exposes the gaps in infection prevention and control

•Covid-19 has highlighted how little we really know about controlling infection. •The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has ignited a tsunami of interest in basic hygiene. •Despite a shaky evidence base, hygienic activities have propelled infection control onto the global stage. •Covid-19 has compelled us to re-examine the chain of transmission as never before.

Association of Short-Term Exposure to Meteorological Factors and Risk of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) Background: Inconsistencies were observed in studies on the relationship between short-term exposure to meteorological factors and the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). This systematic review and meta-analysis was aimed to assess the overall effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD to help clarify these inconsistencies and serve as a piece of evidence for policy makers to determine relevant risk factors. (2) Methods: Articles published as of 24 October 2020, were searched in the four databases, namely, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and MEDLINE. We applied a meta-analysis to assess the impact of ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, and sunshine duration on the incidence of HFMD. We conducted subgroup analyses by exposure metrics, exposure time resolution, regional climate, national income level, gender, and age as a way to seek the source of heterogeneity. (3) Results: Screening by the given inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 28 studies were included in the analysis. We observed that the incidence of HFMD based on the single-day lag model is significantly associated with ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed. In the cumulative lag model, ambient temperature and relative humidity significantly increased the incidence of HFMD as well. Subgroup analysis showed that extremely high temperature and relative humidity significantly increased the risk of HFMD. Temperate regions, high-income countries, and children under five years old are major risk factors for HFMD. (4) Conclusions: Our results suggest that various meteorological factors can increase the incidence of HFMD. Therefore, the general public, especially susceptible populations, should pay close attention to weather changes and take protective measures in advance.

Ethics, pandemic and environment; looking at the future of low middle income countries

COVID-19 which started in Wuhan, China and swiftly expanded geographically worldwide, including to Low to Middle Income Countries (LMICs). This in turn raised numerous ethical concerns in preparedness, knowledge sharing, intellectual property rights, environmental health together with the serious constraints regarding readiness of health care systems in LMICs to respond to this enormous public health crisis. From the restrictions on public freedom and burgeoning socio-economic impacts to the rationing of scarce medical resources, the spread of COVID-19 is an extraordinary ethical dilemma for resource constrained nations with less developed health and research systems. In the current crisis, scientific knowledge and technology has an important role to play in effective response. Emergency preparedness is a shared responsibility of all countries with a moral obligation to support each other. This review discusses the ethical concerns regarding the national capacities and response strategies in LMICs to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the deep link between the environment and the increasing risk of pandemics.

Chemoprophylaxis, diagnosis, treatments, and discharge management of COVID-19: An evidence-based clinical practice guideline (updated version)

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of a rapidly spreading illness, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), affecting more than seventeen million people around the world. Diagnosis and treatment guidelines for clinicians caring for patients are needed. In the early stage, we have issued "A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia (standard version)"; now there are many direct evidences emerged and may change some of previous recommendations and it is ripe for develop an evidence-based guideline. We formed a working group of clinical experts and methodologists. The steering group members proposed 29 questions that are relevant to the management of COVID-19 covering the following areas: chemoprophylaxis, diagnosis, treatments, and discharge management. We searched the literature for direct evidence on the management of COVID-19, and assessed its certainty generated recommendations using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Recommendations were either strong or weak, or in the form of ungraded consensus-based statement. Finally, we issued 34 statements. Among them, 6 were strong recommendations for, 14 were weak recommendations for, 3 were weak recommendations against and 11 were ungraded consensus-based statement. They covered topics of chemoprophylaxis (including agents and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) agents), diagnosis (including clinical manifestations, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), respiratory tract specimens, IgM and IgG antibody tests, chest computed tomography, chest x-ray, and CT features of asymptomatic infections), treatments (including lopinavir-ritonavir, umifenovir, favipiravir, interferon, remdesivir, combination of antiviral drugs, hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, interleukin-6 inhibitors, interleukin-1 inhibitors, glucocorticoid, qingfei paidu decoction, lianhua qingwen granules/capsules, convalescent plasma, lung transplantation, invasive or noninvasive ventilation, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)), and discharge management (including discharge criteria and management plan in patients whose RT-PCR retesting shows SARS-CoV-2 positive after discharge). We also created two figures of these recommendations for the implementation purpose. We hope these recommendations can help support healthcare workers caring for COVID-19 patients.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Related Clinical Studies: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Objective

The quality and rationality of many recently registered clinical studies related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) needs to be assessed. Hence, this study aims to evaluate the current status of COVID-19 related registered clinical trial.

Methods

We did an electronic search of COVID-19 related clinical studies registered between December 1, 2019 and February 21, 2020 (updated to May 28, 2020) from the ClinicalTrials.gov, and collected registration information, study details, recruitment status, characteristics of the subjects, and relevant information about the trial implementation process.

Results

A total of 1,706 studies were included 10.0% of which (n=171) were from France, 943 (55.3%) used an interventional design, and 600 (35.2%) used an observational design. Most of studies (73.6%) aimed to recruit fewer than 500 people. Interferon was the main prevention program, and antiviral drugs were the main treatment program. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine (230/943, 24.4%) were widely studied. Some registered clinical trials are incomplete in content, and 37.4% of the 1,706 studies may have had insufficient sample size.

Conclusion

The quality of COVID-19 related studies needs to be improved by strengthening the registration process and improving the quality of clinical study protocols so that these clinical studies can provide high-quality clinical evidence related to COVID-19.