Risk and sex-specific trends of dementia and stroke in Italy Compared to European and high-income countries and the world: global implications

BACKGROUND

Understanding the increasing trends in Italy may inform new prevention strategies and better treatments. We investigated trends and risk factors of dementia, stroke, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Italy with the second-oldest population globally, compared to European and high-income countries and the world.

METHODS

We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 estimates on incidence and burden (i.e., disability and death combined) of the three conditions in both sexes. We also analyzed the burden attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors and their changes during 1990-2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, Italy had 186,108 new dementias (123,885 women) and 94,074 new strokes (53,572 women). Women had 98% higher crude dementia and 24% higher crude stroke burdens than men. The average age-standardized new dementia rate was 114.7 per 100,000 women and 88.4 per 100,000 men, both higher than Western Europe, the European Union, high-income countries, and the world. During 1990-2019, this rate increased in both sexes (4%), despite a decline in stroke (- 45%) and IHD (- 17%) in Italy. Dementia burden attributable to tobacco decreased in both sexes (- 12.7%) during 1990-2019, while high blood glucose and high body mass index combined burden increased (25.4%). Stroke and IHD had similar trends.

CONCLUSIONS

While decreases in new strokes and IHDs are encouraging, new approaches to their joint prevention are required to reverse the rising dementia trends, especially among women. Life course approaches to promoting holistic brain health should be implemented at the community, national, and international levels before the growing trends become overwhelming.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Decreasing incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease and dementia in Norway, 1990-2019, a Global Burden of Disease Study: An Opportunity

BACKGROUND

The declining incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and dementia (the triple threat) in Norway encourages further investigation. We analysed the risks and trends of the three conditions using data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD).

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 estimations for age-, sex-, and risk factor-specific incidence and prevalence of "the triple threat" and their risk factor-attributed deaths and disability combined and their age-standardised rates per 100,000 population in 2019 and their changes during 1990-2019. Data are presented in means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

RESULTS

In 2019, 71.1 thousand Norwegian were living with dementia, 157.2 thousand with IHD, and 95.2 thousand with strokes. In 2019, there were 9.9 thousand (8.5 to 11.3) new cases of dementia (35.0% increase since 1990), 17.0 thousand (14.6 to 19.6) with IHD (3.6% decrease), and 8.0 thousand (7.0 to 9.1) with strokes (12.9% decrease) in Norway. During 1990-2019, their age-standardised incidence rates decreased significantly; dementia by -5.4% (-8.4 to -3.2), IHD by -30.0% (-31.4 to -28.6), and stroke by -35.3% (-38.3 to -32.2), respectively. There were significant declines in the attributable risks to both ENVIRONMENTAL and behavioural factors in Norway, but contradictory trends for metabolic risk factors during 1990-2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of "the triple threat" conditions is declining in Norway, despite the increased prevalence. This offers the opportunity to find out why and how and to accelerate their joint prevention through new approaches and the promotion of the National Brain Health Strategy.

Global, regional, and national trends of dementia incidence and risk factors, 1990-2019: A Global Burden of Disease study

BACKGROUND

An ample literature documents the growing prevalence of dementia and associated costs. Less attention has been paid to decreased dementia incidence in some countries.

METHODS

We analyzed trends in age-standardized dementia, stroke, and ischemic heart disease (the triple threat) incidence rates and population attributable fraction of death and disability attributable to 12 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 51 regions using Global Burden of Disease 2019 data.

RESULTS

During 1990 to 2019, dementia incidence declined in 71 countries; 18 showed statistically significant declines, ranging from -12.1% (95% uncertainty intervals -16.9 to -6.8) to -2.4% (-4.6 to -0.5). During 2010 to 2019, 16 countries showed non-significant declines. Globally, the burden of the triple threat attributable to air pollution, dietary risks, non-optimal temperature, lead exposure, and tobacco use decreased from 1990 to 2019.

CONCLUSION

The declining incidence of dementia in some countries, despite growing prevalence, is encouraging and urges further investigation.

The Role of Zinc in the Treatment of Wilson’s Disease

Wilson’s disease (WD) is a hereditary disorder of copper metabolism, producing abnormally high levels of non-ceruloplasmin-bound copper, the determinant of the pathogenic process causing brain and hepatic damage and dysfunction. Although the disease is invariably fatal without medication, it is treatable and many of its adverse effects are reversible. Diagnosis is difficult due to the large range and severity of symptoms. A high index of suspicion is required as patients may have only a few of the many possible biomarkers. The genetic prevalence of ATP7B variants indicates higher rates in the population than are currently diagnosed. Treatments have evolved from chelators that reduce stored copper to zinc, which reduces the toxic levels of circulating non-ceruloplasmin-bound copper. Zinc induces intestinal metallothionein, which blocks copper absorption and increases excretion in the stools, resulting in an improvement in symptoms. Two meta-analyses and several large retrospective studies indicate that zinc is equally effective as chelators for the treatment of WD, with the advantages of a very low level of toxicity and only the minor side effect of gastric disturbance. Zinc is recommended as a first-line treatment for neurological presentations and is gaining acceptance for hepatic presentations. It is universally recommended for lifelong maintenance therapy and for presymptomatic WD.

From Dementia to Eumentia: A New Approach to Dementia Prevention

BACKGROUND

During the past 40 years, dementia prevention approaches have ranged from searching for a drug to prevent progression to Alzheimer's disease to prevention of dementia through multi-domain lifestyle interventions. Current Approaches: The search for a silver bullet has yielded good science but no clinical results. The multi-model lifestyle intervention approach has shown encouraging results. The largest proportion of resources in prevention have been devoted to finding a drug to prevent, mitigate or delay what is being called "Alzheimer's disease of late onset." The reality is that Alzheimer pathology is common among the elderly, but it seldom only occurs alone. The only treatable and preventable pathology currently is vascular. Hence arose the concept of "vascular cognitive impairment" meaning any vascular cause or risk factor associated with cognitive impairment. The majority of cases of cognitive in the elderly have a vascular component that is treatable and preventable and identifiable by several means, including a simple ischemic score.

CONCLUSION

Since environmental, socioeconomic and individual risk factors contribute to dementia, we proposed a Comprehensive, Customized, Cost-effective APProach (The CCC-APP) implemented in actionable units with the focus on promoting brain health (eumentia).

A new definition of brain reserve

Brain reserve definitions foster debate and disagreements. A consensus definition of brain reserve would fill gaps in converging ongoing research and action plans to promote brain health. Different terms are used for the capacity to adapt to life hardships and cognitive and social compliance and to neutralize or compensate for age-related neurological degeneration to prevent impaired cognition. Brain reserve, resilience, cognitive reserve, and brain maintenance have been used usually in isolation, but at times interchangeably. However, the need remains for a simplified overarching definition of brain reserve. Brain health is a continuous development and exercise of the brain, and thus the brain reserve requires a definition encompassing this continuum. We propose for discussion a new definition of brain reserve that incorporates available definitions and emphasizes the dynamic and interactive nature of a healthy brain. Brain reserve is the lifelong, dynamic, interactive, accumulating capacity to resist physical, emotional, and/or social harms.

Brain health: Key to health, productivity, and well-being

Brain health is essential for physical and mental health, social well-being, productivity, and creativity. Current neurological research focuses mainly on treating a diseased brain and preventing further deterioration rather than on developing and maintaining brain health. The pandemic has forced a shift toward virtual working environments that accelerated opportunities for transdisciplinary collaboration for fostering brain health among neurologists, psychiatrists, psychologists, neuro and socio-behavioral scientists, scholars in arts and humanities, policymakers, and citizens. This could shed light on the interconnectedness of physical, mental, environmental, and socioeconomic determinants of brain disease and health. We advocate making brain health the top priority worldwide, developing common measures and definitions to enhance research and policy, and finding the cause of the decline of incidence of stroke and dementia in some countries and then applying comprehensive customized cost-effective prevention solutions in actionable implementation units. Life cycle brain health offers the best single individual, communal, and global investment.

Stroke and dementia, leading causes of neurological disability and death, potential for prevention

INTRODUCTION

Stroke and dementia share a number of modifiable risk factors and are the leading cause of neurological disability and death worldwide.

METHODS

We report the 2019 estimations for global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and death numbers and rates related to stroke and dementia, as well as their risk attributed DALYs and deaths and their changes between 2010 and 2019.

RESULTS

Stroke accounted for 69.8%, dementia for 17.3%, and combined contributed to 87.2% (8.2 million) of neurological deaths and 61.7% (168.5 million) of neurological DALYs in 2019. For stroke, 86.4% of DALYs and for dementias 32.8% of DALYs are attributable to risk factors. Globally, hypertension (54.8%) and unhealthy diet (30.0%) pose the greatest risk for stroke DALYs, and smoking (15.1%) and obesity (12.5%) for dementia DALYs.

DISCUSSION

Worldwide, stroke and dementia cases are increasing in number, but their age-standardized rates are falling. Finding out why offers the possibility of their joint delay, mitigation, or prevention.

Secular trends of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and dementia in high-income countries from 1990 to 2017: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

We assessed secular trends in the burden of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and dementia in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017, we compared sex-specific and age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY); mortality, incidence, and prevalence of IHD and stroke; and dementia per 100,000 people, in the world, OECD countries, and Canada.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2017, the crude incidence number of IHD, stroke, and dementia increased 52%, 76%, and 113%, respectively. Likewise, the prevalence of IHD (75%), stroke (95%), and dementia (119%) increased worldwide. In addition during the study period, the crude global number of deaths of IHD increased 52%, stroke by 41%, and dementia by 146% (9, 6, and 3 million deaths in 2017, respectively). Despite an increase in the crude number of these diseases, the global age-standardized incidence rate of IHD, stroke, and dementia decreased by -27%, - 11%, and - 5%, respectively. Moreover, there was a decline in their age-standardized DALY rates (- 1.17%, - 1.32%, and - 0.23% per year, respectively) and death rates (- 1.29%, - 1.46%, and - 0.17% per year, respectively), with sharper downward trends in Canada and OECD countries. Almost all trends flattened during the last decade.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2017, the age-standardized burden of IHD, stroke, and dementia decreased, more prominently in OECD countries than the world. However, their rising crude numbers mainly due to population growth and ageing require urgent identification of reversible risk and protective factors.

Cerebral blood flow changes during aging process and in cognitive disorders: A review

We aimed to summarize the available evidence on cerebral blood flow (CBF) changes in normal aging and common cognitive disorders. We searched PubMed for studies on CBF changes in normal aging and cognitive disorders up to 1 January 2019. We summarized the milestones in the history of CBF assessment and reviewed the current evidence on the association between CBF and cognitive changes in normal aging, vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD). There is promising evidence regarding the utility of CBF studies in cognition research. Age-related CBF changes could be related to a progressive neuronal loss or diminished activity and synaptic density of neurons in the brain. While a similar cause or outcome theory applies to VCI and AD, it is possible that CBF reduction might precede cognitive decline. Despite the diversity of CBF research findings, its measurement could help early detection of cognitive disorders and also understanding their underlying etiology.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Ecological Study on Data of 185 Countries

BACKGROUND

The interaction between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and non-communicable diseases may increase the global burden of disease. We assessed the association of COVID-19 with ageing and non-communicable diseases.

METHODS

We extracted data regarding non-communicable disease, particularly cardiovascular disease, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. We obtained data of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and tests from the Our World in Data database as of May 28, 2020. Potential confounders of pandemic outcomes analyzed include institutional lockdown delay, hemispheric geographical location, and number of tourists. We compared all countries according to GBD classification and World Bank income level. We assessed the correlation between independent variables associated with COVID-19 caseload and mortality using Spearman's rank correlation and adjusted mixed model analysis.

FINDINGS

High-income had the highest, and the Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania region had the least cases per million population (3050.60 vs. 63.86). Sub-saharan region has reported the lowest number of COVID-19 mortality (1.9). Median delay to lockdown initiation varied from one day following the first case in Latin America and Caribbean region, to 34 days in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Globally, non-communicable disease DALYs were correlated with COVID-19 cases (r = 0.32, p<0.001) and deaths (r = 0.37, p<0.001). HALE correlated with COVID-19 cases (r = 0.63, p<0.001) and deaths (r = 0.61, p<0.001). HALE was independently associated with COVID-19 case rate and the number of tourists was associated with COVID-19 mortality in the adjusted model.

INTERPRETATION

Preventive measures against COVID-19 should protect the public from the dual burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, particularly in the elderly. In addition to active COVID-19 surveillance, policymakers should utilize this evidence as a guide for prevention and coordination of health services. This model is timely, as many countries have begun to reduce social isolation.

Concomitant vascular and neurodegenerative pathologies double the risk of dementia

INTRODUCTION

The relative contributions of vascular and degenerative pathology to dementia are unknown. We aim to quantify the proportion of dementia explained by potentially preventable vascular lesions.

METHODS

We systematically searched for population-based cohorts before February 2017 reporting clinicopathological data for individuals with and without dementia. We calculated the summary proportion and absolute risk of dementia comparing subjects with and without the pathology.

RESULTS

We identified 10 studies comprising 2856 subjects. Vascular-type pathology and mixed pathology are respectively two and three times more likely in demented patients. The summary proportion of dementia is 77%-86% in subjects with mixed degenerative and vascular pathology and 45% in subjects with pure Alzheimer-type pathology.

DISCUSSION

Patients with mixed pathologies have nearly twice the incremental risk of dementia compared with patients with only Alzheimer-type lesions. Consequently, many cases of dementia could be prevented or delayed by targeting the vascular component.

Inorganic polyphosphate: a key modulator of inflammation

Inorganic polyphosphate (PolyP) is a molecule with prothrombotic and proinflammatory properties in blood. PolyP activates the NF-κB signaling pathway, increases the expression of cell surface adhesion molecules and disrupts the vascular barrier integrity of endothelial cells. PolyP-induced NF-κB activation and vascular hyperpermeability are regulated by the mammalian target of rapamycin complex-1 (mTORC1) and mTORC2 pathways, respectively. Through interaction with receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) and P2Y1 receptors, PolyP dramatically amplifies the proinflammatory responses of nuclear proteins. Moreover, PolyP-mediated activation of the contact pathway results in activation of the kallikrein-kinin system, which either directly or in cross-talk with the complement system induces inflammation in both cellular and animal systems. Thus, polyP is a novel therapeutic target for the treatment of metabolic and acute/chronic proinflammatory diseases, including severe sepsis, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. In this review, we discuss recent findings on the inflammatory properties of polyP and propose a model to explain the molecular mechanism of proinflammatory effects of this molecule in different systems.

Role of Akt signaling in resistance to DNA-targeted therapy

The Akt signal transduction pathway controls most hallmarks of cancer. Activation of the Akt cascade promotes a malignant phenotype and is also widely implicated in drug resistance. Therefore, the modulation of Akt activity is regarded as an attractive strategy to enhance the efficacy of cancer therapy and irradiation. This pathway consists of phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase (PI3K), mammalian target of rapamycin, and the transforming serine-threonine kinase Akt protein isoforms, also known as protein kinase B. DNA-targeted agents, such as platinum agents, taxanes, and antimetabolites, as well as radiation have had a significant impact on cancer treatment by affecting DNA replication, which is aberrantly activated in malignancies. However, the caveat is that they may also trigger the activation of repairing mechanisms, such as upstream and downstream cascade of Akt survival pathway. Thus, each target can theoretically be inhibited in view of improving the potency of conventional treatment. Akt inhibitors, e.g., MK-2206 and perifosine, or PI3K modulators, e.g., LY294002 and Wortmannin, have shown some promising results in favor of sensitizing the cancer cells to the therapy in vitro and in vivo, which have provided the rationale for incorporation of these novel agents into multimodality treatment of different malignancies. Nevertheless, despite the acceptable safety profile of some of these agents in the clinical studies, with regard to the efficacy, the results are still too preliminary. Hence, we need to wait for the upcoming data from the ongoing trials before utilizing them into the standard care of cancer patients.

Serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein as a biomarker in patients with metabolic syndrome: evidence-based study with 7284 subjects

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is characterized by abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension and glucose intolerance, and is associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes mellitus and related diseases. Circulating levels of inflammatory markers such as C-reactive-protein (CRP) have reported to be associated with CVD. Against this background, the prevalence of MetS is increasing globally, and thus predictive biomarkers are required for identification of MetS patients at an increased risk. Here we explored the value of CRP as a biomarker in 7284 subjects and also investigated which features of MetS have the greatest association with the hs-CRP level.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

The subjects were recruited from the Mashhad stroke and heart atherosclerotic disorder study. Anthropometric factors and biochemical parameters (for example, high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP), high-density lipoprotein/low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides (TGs) and fasting blood glucose (FBG)) were determined. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate the association of hs-CRP and MetS.

RESULTS

Our results illustrated that the concentration of serum hs-CRP increased progressively with the number of MetS components, and subjects who fulfilled the criteria of MetS for waist circumference, TGs, blood pressure and FBG were found to have hs-CRP of 0.53, 0.38, 0.34 and 0.71 mg/l, respectively, higher than matched-subjects. Importantly, FBG had the greatest association with hs-CRP concentration.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate the significant association between MetS components with hs-CRP, indicating that this association was cumulative by increasing the number of the defining features of MetS, supporting further studies to explore the value of emerging marker as a novel method for detecting individuals at high risk of developing MetS.

Locked nucleic acid anti-miR-21 inhibits cell growth and invasive behaviors of a colorectal adenocarcinoma cell line: LNA-anti-miR as a novel approach

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related death and has an extremely poor prognosis. Dysregulation of microRNAs (miRNAs) has been shown to be involved in the pathogenesis and progression of many malignancies. Recent data suggest that microRNA-21 (miR-21) is significantly elevated in different types of cancer, especially colon adenocarcinoma. Against this background, locked nucleic acid (LNA)-modified oligonucleotides have recently been suggested as a novel approach for targeting miRNAs as antisense-based gene silencing. The aim of the current study was to explore the functional role of LNA-anti-miR-21 in a colon adenocarcinoma LS174T cell line. LS174T cells were transfected with LNA-anti-miR-21 for 24, 48 and 72 h. Quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR (qRT-PCR) was performed to assess miR-21 expression by LNA-anti-miR-21. The viability of the cells was evaluated by MTT (3-[4, 5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2, 5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide) assay and Annexin V/propidium iodide staining assay was used to detect apoptosis. Moreover, invasive behavior of the cells was evaluated before and after therapy by transwell assay. LNA-anti-miR-21 was successfully transfected in human LS174T cells and suppressed the endogenous miR-21. LNA-anti-miR-21 inhibited the cells' growth followed by induction of apoptosis. LNA-anti-miR-21 (50 pmol/μl) reduced the invasive behaviors of LS174T cells after 24 h, compared with untreated cells and scrambled LNA-transfected cells. However, this effect was more pronounced after 72 h. Our findings suggest the therapeutic potential of LNA-anti-miR-21 in a colon adenocarcinoma for targeting miR-21 expression. Further studies are warranted to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying this novel inhibitor in colorectal cancer to establish its potential value for treatment of CRC patients with high miR-21 expression.

Physalis alkekengi and Alhagi maurorum ameliorate the side effect of cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity

Cisplatin is frequently being used for the treatment of different tumors, although the application of this agent is associated with nephrotoxicity. Here, we explored the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities of Physalis alkekengi and Alhagi maurorum; 400 mg kg(-1) per day P. alkekengi and 100 mg kg(-1) per day A. maurorum were administered in rats, orally for 10 days after a single dose of 7 mg kg(-1) intraperitoneal cisplatin. The concentrations of creatinine, urea-nitrogen, and relative and absolute excretion of sodium/potassium were evaluated before/after therapy. Levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) and ferric-reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) were measured to assess the oxidative stress induced by cisplatin. Moreover, tissues sections were used for histological analyses and evaluation of the degree of tissue damage. Cisplatin increased serum levels of creatinine and urea-nitrogen, relative/absolute excretion of sodium/potassium, and MDA, whereas decreased FRAP level. Interestingly, P. alkekengi or A. maurorum were able to reduce the level of the renal function markers as well as the levels of sodium/potassium. This effect was more pronounced by P. alkekengi. Moreover, cisplatin induced pathological damage in kidney, whereas treatment with these agents improved this condition. Our findings demonstrate the potential therapeutic impact of P. alkekengi and A. maurorum for improving cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity, supporting further investigations on the novel potential clinical application of these agents for patients being treated with cisplatin to ameliorate cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity.

Modulation of signaling enhances the efficacy of the combination of satraplatin and erlotinib

The active metabolite (JM118) of the oral platinum analog satraplatin (JM216) was investigated for potential synergism with erlotinib, an epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor. JM118 sensitivity of 7 cancer cell lines (ovarian: 2008, A2780; colon: Lovo92, WiDr; lung: A549, SW1573; epidermoid: A431), was enhanced most pronounced when JM118 preceded erlotinib, which was associated with increased formation of DNA-platinum adducts. The combination increased G2/M phase accumulation and enhanced apoptosis. JM118 increased the phosphorylation of the cell cycle proteins CDK2 and CHK1 after 24 hr exposure. JM118/erlotinib enhanced Erk and Akt phosphorylation after 2 hr. JM118 significantly decreased the phosphorylation of PTEN, VEGFR, EPHA1, ERBB4, FGF-R, andSTAT3 by 20 (PTEN) to >90% (STAT3).

CONCLUSION

Erlotinib enhanced the effects of JM118, even in cells with mutations in Ras. The mechanism of synergy involved a combination of effects on platinum-DNA adduct formation, cell cycle distribution and signaling.

Platinum-induced neurotoxicity and preventive strategies: past, present, and future

Neurotoxicity is a burdensome side effect of platinum-based chemotherapy that prevents administration of the full efficacious dosage and often leads to treatment withdrawal. Peripheral sensory neurotoxicity varies from paresthesia in fingers to ataxic gait, which might be transient or irreversible. Because the number of patients being treated with these neurotoxic agents is still increasing, the need for understanding the pathogenesis of this dramatic side effect is critical. Platinum derivatives, such as cisplatin and carboplatin, harm mainly peripheral nerves and dorsal root ganglia neurons, possibly because of progressive DNA-adduct accumulation and inhibition of DNA repair pathways (e.g., extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2, c-Jun N-terminal kinase/stress-activated protein kinase, and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinass), which finally mediate apoptosis. Oxaliplatin, with a completely different pharmacokinetic profile, may also alter calcium-sensitive voltage-gated sodium channel kinetics through a calcium ion immobilization by oxalate residue as a calcium chelator and cause acute neurotoxicity. Polymorphisms in several genes, such as voltage-gated sodium channel genes or genes affecting the activity of pivotal metal transporters (e.g., organic cation transporters, organic cation/carnitine transporters, and some metal transporters, such as the copper transporters, and multidrug resistance-associated proteins), can also influence drug neurotoxicity and treatment response. However, most pharmacogenetics studies need to be elucidated by robust evidence. There are supportive reports about the effectiveness of several neuroprotective agents (e.g., vitamin E, glutathione, amifostine, xaliproden, and venlafaxine), but dose adjustment and/or drug withdrawal seem to be the most frequently used methods in the management of platinum-induced peripheral neurotoxicity. To develop alternative options in the treatment of platinum-induced neuropathy, studies on in vitro models and appropriate trials planning should be integrated into the future design of neuroprotective strategies to find the best patient-oriented solution.

AKT1 and SELP polymorphisms predict the risk of developing cachexia in pancreatic cancer patients

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients have the highest risk of developing cachexia, which is a direct cause of reduced quality of life and shorter survival. Novel biomarkers to identify patients at risk of cachexia are needed and might have a substantial impact on clinical management. Here we investigated the prognostic value and association of SELP-rs6136, IL6-rs1800796 and AKT1-rs1130233 polymorphisms with cachexia in PDAC. Genotyping was performed in DNA from blood samples of a test and validation cohorts of 151 and 152 chemo-naive locally-advanced/metastatic PDAC patients, respectively. The association of SELP-rs6136, IL6-rs1800796 and AKT1-rs1130233 polymorphisms with cachexia as well as the correlation between cachexia and the candidate polymorphisms and overall survival were analyzed. Akt expression and phosphorylation in muscle biopsies were evaluated by specific ELISA assays. SELP-rs6136-AA and AKT1-rs1130233-AA/GA genotypes were associated with increased risk of developing cachexia in both cohorts (SELP: p = 0.011 and p = 0.045; AKT1: p = 0.004 and p = 0.019 for the first and second cohorts, respectively), while patients carrying AKT1-rs1130233-GG survived significantly longer (p = 0.002 and p = 0.004 for the first and second cohorts, respectively). In the multivariate analysis AKT1-rs1130233-AA/GA genotypes were significant predictors for shorter survival, with an increased risk of death of 1.7 (p = 0.002) and 1.6 (p = 0.004), in the first and second cohorts, respectively. This might be explained by the reduced phosphorylation of Akt1 in muscle biopsies from patients harboring AKT1-rs1130233-AA/GA (p = 0.003), favoring apoptosis induction. In conclusion, SELP and AKT1 polymorphisms may play a role in the risk of cachexia and death in PDAC patients, and should be further evaluated in larger prospective studies.