Physiologic Adaptation to Macronutrient Change Distorts Findings from Short Dietary Trials: Reanalysis of a Metabolic Ward Study

An influential 2-wk cross-over feeding trial without a washout period purported to show advantages of a low-fat diet (LFD) compared with a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) for weight control. In contrast to several other macronutrient trials, the diet order effect was originally reported as not significant. In light of a new analysis by the original investigative group identifying an order effect, we aimed to examine, in a reanalysis of publicly available data (16 of 20 original participants; 7 female; mean BMI, 27.8 kg/m2), the validity of the original results and the claims that trial data oppose the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity (CIM). We found that energy intake on the LCD was much lower when this diet was consumed first compared with second (a difference of -1164 kcal/d, P = 3.6 × 10-13); the opposite pattern was observed for the LFD (924 kcal/d, P = 2.0 × 10-16). This carry-over effect was significant (P interaction = 0.0004) whereas the net dietary effect was not (P = 0.4). Likewise, the between-arm difference (LCD - LFD) was -320 kcal/d in the first period and +1771 kcal/d in the second. Body fat decreased with consumption of the LCD first and increased with consumption of this diet second (-0.69 ± 0.33 compared with 0.57 ± 0.32 kg, P = 0.007). LCD-first participants had higher β-hydroxybutyrate levels while consuming the LCD and lower respiratory quotients while consuming LFD when compared with LFD-first participants on their respective diets. Change in insulin secretion as assessed by C-peptide in the first diet period predicted higher energy intake and less fat loss in the second period. These findings, which tend to support rather than oppose the CIM, suggest that differential (unequal) carry-over effects and short duration, with no washout period, preclude causal inferences regarding chronic macronutrient effects from this trial.

Increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol on a low-carbohydrate diet in adults with normal but not high body weight: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol change with consumption of a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) is highly variable. Identifying the source of this heterogeneity could guide clinical decision-making.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate LDL cholesterol change in randomized controlled trials involving LCDs, with a focus on body mass index (BMI) in kg/m2.

METHODS

Three electronic indexes (Pubmed, EBSCO, and Scielo) were searched for studies between 1 January, 2003 and 20 December, 2022. Two independent reviewers identified randomized controlled trials involving adults consuming <130 g/d carbohydrate and reporting BMI and LDL cholesterol change or equivalent data. Two investigators extracted relevant data, which were validated by other investigators. Data were analyzed using a random-effects model and contrasted with results of pooled individual participant data.

RESULTS

Forty-one trials with 1379 participants and a mean intervention duration of 19.4 wk were included. In a meta-regression accounting for 51.4% of the observed variability on LCDs, mean baseline BMI had a strong inverse association with LDL cholesterol change [β = -2.5 mg/dL/BMI unit, 95% confidence interval (CI): -3.7, -1.4], whereas saturated fat amount was not significantly associated with LDL cholesterol change. For trials with mean baseline BMI <25, LDL cholesterol increased by 41 mg/dL (95% CI: 19.6, 63.3) on the LCD. By contrast, for trials with a mean of BMI 25-<35, LDL cholesterol did not change, and for trials with a mean BMI ≥35, LDL cholesterol decreased by 7 mg/dL (95% CI: -12.1, -1.3). Using individual participant data, the relationship between BMI and LDL cholesterol change was not observed on higher-carbohydrate diets.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial increase in LDL cholesterol is likely for individuals with low but not high BMI with consumption of an LCD, findings that may help guide individualized nutritional management of cardiovascular disease risk. As carbohydrate restriction tends to improve other lipid and nonlipid risk factors, the clinical significance of isolated LDL cholesterol elevation in this context warrants investigation. This trial was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42022299278.

Thyroid markers and body composition predict LDL-cholesterol change in lean healthy women on a ketogenic diet: experimental support for the lipid energy model

Introduction

There is a large heterogeneity in LDL-cholesterol change among individuals adopting ketogenic diets. Interestingly, lean metabolically healthy individuals seem to be particularly susceptible, with an inverse association between body mass index and LDL-cholesterol change. The lipid energy model proposes that, in lean healthy individuals, carbohydrate restriction upregulates systemic lipid trafficking to meet energy demands. To test if anthropometric and energy metabolism markers predict LDL-cholesterol change during carbohydrate restriction.

Methods

Ten lean, healthy, premenopausal women who habitually consumed a ketogenic diet for ≥6 months were engaged in a three-phase crossover study consisting of continued nutritional ketosis, suppression of ketosis with carbohydrate reintroduction, and return to nutritional ketosis. Each phase lasted 21 days. The predictive performance of all available relevant variables was evaluated with the linear mixed-effects models.

Results

All body composition metrics, free T3 and total T4, were significantly associated with LDL-cholesterol change. In an interaction model with BMI and free T3, both markers were significant independent and interacting predictors of LDL-cholesterol change. Neither saturated fat, HOMA-IR, leptin, adiponectin, TSH, nor rT3 was associated with LDL-cholesterol changes.

Discussion

Among lean, healthy women undergoing carbohydrate restriction, body composition and energy metabolism markers are major drivers of LDL-cholesterol change, not saturated fat, consistent with the lipid energy model.

Ketosis Suppression and Ageing (KetoSAge): The Effects of Suppressing Ketosis in Long Term Keto-Adapted Non-Athletic Females

Most studies on ketosis have focused on short-term effects, male athletes, or weight loss. Hereby, we studied the effects of short-term ketosis suppression in healthy women on long-standing ketosis. Ten lean (BMI 20.5 ± 1.4), metabolically healthy, pre-menopausal women (age 32.3 ± 8.9) maintaining nutritional ketosis (NK) for > 1 year (3.9 years ± 2.3) underwent three 21-day phases: nutritional ketosis (NK; P1), suppressed ketosis (SuK; P2), and returned to NK (P3). Adherence to each phase was confirmed with daily capillary D-beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) tests (P1 = 1.9 ± 0.7; P2 = 0.1 ± 0.1; and P3 = 1.9 ± 0.6 pmol/L). Ageing biomarkers and anthropometrics were evaluated at the end of each phase. Ketosis suppression significantly increased: insulin, 1.78-fold from 33.60 (± 8.63) to 59.80 (± 14.69) pmol/L (p = 0.0002); IGF1, 1.83-fold from 149.30 (± 32.96) to 273.40 (± 85.66) µg/L (p = 0.0045); glucose, 1.17-fold from 78.6 (± 9.5) to 92.2 (± 10.6) mg/dL (p = 0.0088); respiratory quotient (RQ), 1.09-fold 0.66 (± 0.05) to 0.72 (± 0.06; p = 0.0427); and PAI-1, 13.34 (± 6.85) to 16.69 (± 6.26) ng/mL (p = 0.0428). VEGF, EGF, and monocyte chemotactic protein also significantly increased, indicating a pro-inflammatory shift. Sustained ketosis showed no adverse health effects, and may mitigate hyperinsulinemia without impairing metabolic flexibility in metabolically healthy women.

Acute Leukemia Relapse after Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Isolated Extramedullary Relapse in a Latin American Population

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is an effective therapy for acute leukemia (AL). Relapse represents the main cause of mortality. Isolated extramedullary relapse (iEMR) is atypical and has been related to better outcomes. Here we describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of AL relapse after HSCT in our study population and analyze the impacts of different types of relapse on survival outcomes. This retrospective, multicenter study included 124 patients age ≥15 years with AL who underwent HSCT between 2004 and 2019. At diagnosis, 66.1% of the patients had lymphocytic AL, 19.7% presented with high-risk features, and 18.5% had extramedullary disease (EMD). At HSCT, 83.1% of the patients were in complete remission (CR), and 44.8% had negative measurable residual disease (MRD). The vast majority of donors were related (96%), including 48.4% HLA-matched and 47.6% haploidentical. Myeloablative conditioning was provided to 80.6% of patients. The median overall survival (OS) was 15 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.9 to 20.1 months). Factors associated with improved OS were adolescent and young adult (AYA) patient (P = .035), first or second CR (P = .026), and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) (P < .001). Acute GVHD grade III-IV (P = .009) was associated with increased mortality. The median relapse-free survival was 13 months (95% CI, 7.17 to 18.8 months); early disease status (P = .017) and chronic GVHD (P < .001) had protective roles. Sixty-eight patients (55%) relapsed after HSCT, with a median time to relapse of 6 months (95% CI, 3.6 to 8.4 months). iEMR was reported in 16 patients (23.5%). The most commonly involved extramedullary sites were the central nervous system and skin. Compared to patients with bone marrow relapse, all patients with iEMR had a diagnosis of acute lymphoid leukemia (P = .008), and 93.8% belonged to the AYA group; regarding pre-HSCT characteristics, iEMR patients had higher rates of negative MRD (P = .06) and a history of EMD (P = .009). Seventy-seven percent of relapsed patients received additional treatment with curative intent. The median OS after relapse (OSr) was 4 months (95% CI, 2.6 to 5.4 months). Factors related to increased OSr included lymphoid phenotype (P = .03), iEMR (P = .0042), late relapse (≥6 months) (P = .014), receipt of systemic therapy including second HSCT (P < .001), and response to therapy (P < .001). Rates of relapse and iEMR were higher than those previously reported in other studies. Advanced disease, reduced-intensity conditioning, and a diminished graft-versus-leukemia effect were factors influencing these findings. At relapse, presenting with iEMR after 6 months and receiving intensive therapy with adequate response were associated with better outcomes. Our results strongly suggest that a personalized approach to treating patients with HSCT is needed to counterbalance specific adverse factors and can positively impact clinical outcomes.

Evaluation of the safety and tolerability of exogenous ketosis induced by orally administered free beta-hydroxybutyrate in healthy adult subjects

Beta-hydroxybutyrate (D-BHB) is a metabolite with intrinsic signalling activity that has gained attention as a potentially clinically useful supplement. There are available supplements for inducing ketosis: ketone salts, ketone esters and medium-chain triglycerides. Even when all of them raise D-BHB in the blood and all are safe and well tolerated, they significantly differ in their safety profile, their palatability and their price. A fourth and potentially interesting option is to use biologically identical D-BHB, which it is already commercially available in the USA (American Ketone) and Greater China (MedPHA). However, its safety and tolerability had not yet been documented in the scientific literature. We evaluated the safety and tolerability of orally administered free D-BHB in a gender and age-balanced sample of 24 asymptomatic and overtly healthy adults. No participant showed acid-base abnormalities or electrolyte abnormalities. Secondary symptoms were reported after only 6.2% of all drink takes and none of the reports described the symptom as 'severe'. The most frequently reported secondary effects (19/720 or 2.6%) were gastrointestinal discomfort, headache (7/720 or 1%) and loss of appetite (7/720 or 1%). No correlation between weight-adjusted dose and frequency of secondary symptoms was observed. Free D-BHB was a safe and well-tolerated intervention for inducing sustained exogenous ketosis. Being bioidentical, salt-free and lacking intermediate metabolites, this form of supplementation could have a larger safety spectrum than salt or alcohol-based exogenous ketones. More research is warranted to assess its clinical efficacy in those clinical scenarios in which achieving ketosis rapidly could be beneficial.

Defining metabolic migraine with a distinct subgroup of patients with suboptimal inflammatory and metabolic markers

Emerging evidence suggest migraine is a response to cerebral energy deficiency or oxidative stress in the brain. Beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) is likely able to circumvent some of the meta-bolic abnormalities reported in migraine. Exogenous BHB was given to test this assumption and, in this post-hoc analysis, multiple metabolic biomarkers were identified to predict  clinical improvements. A randomized clinical trial, involving 41 patients with episodic migraine. Each treatment period was 12 weeks long, followed by eight weeks of washout phase / second run-in phase before entering the corresponding second treatment period. The primary endpoint was the number of migraine days in the last 4 weeks of treatment adjusted for baseline. BHB re-sponders were identified (those with at least a 3-day reduction in migraine days over placebo) and its predictors were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) stepwise boot-strapped analysis and logistic regression. Responder analysis showed that metabolic markers could identify a "metabolic migraine" subgroup, which responded to BHB with a 5.7 migraine days reduction compared to the placebo. This analysis provides further support for a "metabolic migraine" subtype. Additionally, these analyses identified low-cost and easily accessible biomarkers that could guide recruitment in future research on this subgroup of patients.This study is part of the trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03132233, registered on 27.04.2017, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03132233.

Evidence for the carbohydrate-insulin model in a reanalysis of the Diet Intervention Examining The Factors Interacting with Treatment Success (DIETFITS) trial

BACKGROUND

The Diet Intervention Examining The Factors Interacting with Treatment Success (DIETFITS) trial demonstrated that meaningful weight loss can be achieved with either a "healthy low-carbohydrate diet" (LCD) or "healthy low-fat diet" (LFD). However, because both diets substantially decreased glycemic load (GL), the dietary factors mediating weight loss remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to explore the contribution of macronutrients and GL to weight loss in DIETFITS and examine a hypothesized relationship between GL and insulin secretion.

DESIGN

This study is a secondary data analysis of the DIETFITS trial, in which participants with overweight or obesity (aged 18-50 y) were randomized to a 12-mo LCD (N = 304) or LFD (N = 305).

RESULTS

Measures related to carbohydrate intake (total amount, glycemic index, added sugar, and fiber) showed strong associations with weight loss at 3-, 6-, and 12-mo time points in the full cohort, whereas those related to total fat intake showed weak to no associations. A biomarker of carbohydrate (triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio) predicted weight loss at all time points (3-mo: β [kg/biomarker z-score change] = 1.1, P = 3.5 × 10^-9; 6-mo: β = 1.7, P = 1.1 × 10^-9; and 12-mo: β = 2.6, P = 1.5 × 10^-15), whereas that of fat (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol + HDL cholesterol) did not (all time points: P = NS). In a mediation model, GL explained most of the observed effect of total calorie intake on weight change. Dividing the cohort into quintiles of baseline insulin secretion and GL reduction revealed evidence of effect modification for weight loss, with P = 0.0009 at 3 mo, P = 0.01 at 6 mo, and P = 0.07 at 12 mo.

CONCLUSIONS

As predicted by the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity, weight loss in both diet groups of DIETFITS seems to have been driven by the reduction of GL more so than dietary fat or calories, an effect that may be most pronounced among those with high insulin secretion. These findings should be interpreted cautiously in view of the exploratory nature of this study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01826591).

Impact of healthcare strain on access to mechanical ventilation and mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Healthcare saturation has been a prominent worry during the COVID-19 pandemic. Increase of hospital beds with mechanical ventilators has been central in Mexico's approach, but it is not known whether this actually improves access to care and the resulting quality of it. This study aimed to determine the impact of healthcare strain and other pre-specified variables on dying from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) without receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using open data from Mexico City between 8 May 2020 and 5 January 2021. We performed Cox proportional hazards models to identify the strength of the association between proposed variables and the outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 33 797 hospitalized patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, 19 820 (58.6%) did not require IMV and survived, 5414 (16.1%) required IMV and were intubated and 8563 (25.3%) required IMV but died without receiving it. A greater occupation of IMV-capable beds increased the hazard of death without receiving IMV (hazard ratio [HR] 1.56, comparing 90% with 50% occupation). Private healthcare was the most protective factor for death without IMV (HR 0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher hospital bed saturation increased the hazard of dying without being intubated and worsened the outcomes among mechanically ventilated patients. Older age also increased the hazard of the outcomes, while private healthcare dramatically decreased them.

Comparison of gastric reactance with commonly used perfusion markers in a swine hypovolemic shock model

Background

The gut has been hypothesized to be a protagonist tissue in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) for the past three decades. Gastric reactance (XL) is a potential perfusion marker derived from gastric impedance spectroscopy (GIS), which is an emerging tool through which living tissue can be continuously measured to determine its pathophysiological evolution. This study aimed to compare the performance of XL [positive predictive values (PPV), negative predictive values (NPV), and area under the curve (AUC)] against commonly used perfusion markers before and during hypovolemic shock in swine subjects.

Methods

Prospective, controlled animal trial with two groups, control group (CG) N = 5 and shock (MAP ≤ 48 mmHg) group (SG) N = 16. Comparison time points were defined as T-2 (2 h before shock), T-1 (1 h before shock), T0 (shock), T1 (1 h after shock), and T2 (2 h after shock). Shock severity was assessed through blood gases, systemic and hemodynamic variables, and via histological examination for assessing inflammation-edema and detachment in the gastric mucosa. Macroscopic assessment of the gastric mucosa was defined in five levels (0—normal mucosa, 1—stippling or epithelial hemorrhage, 2—pale mucosa, 3—violet mucosa, and 4—marmoreal mucosa). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves of perfusion markers and XL were calculated to identify optimal cutoff values and their individual ability to predict hypovolemic shock.

Results

Comparison among the CG and the SG showed statistically significant differences in XL measurements at T-1, T0, T1, and T2, while lactate showed statistically significant differences until T1 and T2. Statistically significant differences were detected in mucosa class (p < 0.001) and in inflammation-edema in the gastric body and the fundus (p = 0.021 and p = 0.043). The performance of the minimum XL value per subject  per event (XL_Min) was better (0.81 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.96, 0.93 ≤ PPV ≤ 1.00, 0.45 ≤ NPV ≤ 0.83) than maximum lactate value (Lac_Max) per subject per event (0.29 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.82, 0.82 ≤ PPV ≤ 0.91, 0.24 ≤ NPV ≤ 0.82). Cutoff values for XL_Min show progressive increases at each time point, while cutoff values for Lac_Max increase only at T2.

Conclusions

XL proved to be an indirect and consistent marker of inadequate gastric mucosal perfusion, which shows significant and detectable changes before commonly used markers of global perfusion under the hypovolemic shock conditions outlined in this work.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40635-022-00476-1.

The Lipid Energy Model: Reimagining Lipoprotein Function in the Context of Carbohydrate-Restricted Diets

When lean people adopt carbohydrate-restricted diets (CRDs), they may develop a lipid profile consisting of elevated LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) and HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) with low triglycerides (TGs). The magnitude of this lipid profile correlates with BMI such that those with lower BMI exhibit larger increases in both LDL-C and HDL-C. The inverse association between BMI and LDL-C and HDL-C change on CRD contributed to the discovery of a subset of individuals—termed Lean Mass Hyper-Responders (LMHR)—who, despite normal pre-diet LDL-C, as compared to non-LMHR (mean levels of 148 and 145 mg/dL, respectively), exhibited a pronounced hyperlipidemic response to a CRD, with mean LDL-C and HDL-C levels increasing to 320 and 99 mg/dL, respectively, in the context of mean TG of 47 mg/dL. In some LMHR, LDL-C levels may be in excess of 500 mg/dL, again, with relatively normal pre-diet LDL-C and absent of genetic findings indicative of familial hypercholesterolemia in those who have been tested. The Lipid Energy Model (LEM) attempts to explain this metabolic phenomenon by positing that, with carbohydrate restriction in lean persons, the increased dependence on fat as a metabolic substrate drives increased hepatic secretion and peripheral uptake of TG contained within very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) by lipoprotein lipase, resulting in marked elevations of LDL-C and HDL-C, and low TG. Herein, we review the core features of the LEM. We review several existing lines of evidence supporting the model and suggest ways to test the model’s predictions.

COVID-19 pandemic and the consequential effect on patients with endometriosis

STUDY QUESTION

What was the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on healthcare and quality of life in those suffering from endometriosis?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Our study reveals a clear correlation between the deterioration of the reported physical and mental state and impaired medical care for patients suffering from endometriosis during the COVID-19 pandemic.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The quality of life of patients suffering from endometriosis is compromised in a variety of aspects. In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, self-isolation practices aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19 have severely complicated the availability of proper medical care worldwide.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The study involved a cross-sectional international self-reported online survey. Responses were accepted between November 2020 and January 2021. The survey was prepared by the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology in a medical university setting. The survey contained 17 questions and was placed online. Cooperation with different endometriosis organizations around the world enabled distribution of the survey through their social media platforms.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The study participants (n = 3024 replies) originated from 59 countries. The questionnaire was created after a literature review and is partially based on the validated quality of life questionnaires, adjusted to the study question. The survey was then translated to 15 other languages following World Health Organization recommendations as closely as possible. Chi-square tests for independence were carried out for the analysis of the two variables: suspension of health services, and the patients mental and physical well-being.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Out of 3024 participants from 59 countries who submitted the questionnaire between November 2020 and January 2021, 2964 (98.01%) provided information that enabled a full analysis. For the 1174 participants who had their medical appointments cancelled, 43.7% (n = 513) reported that their symptoms had been aggravated, and 49.3% (n = 579) reported that their mental state had worsened.

In comparison, of the 1180 participants who kept their appointments, only 29.4% (n = 347) stated that their symptoms had been aggravated, and 27.5% (n = 325) stated their mental health had worsened. The results showed that there was a significant link between the reported deterioration of mental and physical wellbeing and impaired medical care (cancellation) (P ≪ 0.001). A total of 610 participants did not have medical appointments scheduled, and these participants followed a similar pattern as the participants who kept their appointments, with 29.0% (n = 177) reporting aggravation of symptoms and 28.2% (n = 172) reporting that their mental state had worsened.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Cultural differences among international participants are to be expected and this may have affected how participants from different countries interpreted and answered the questionnaire. Translating the questionnaire into 15 different languages, even though incorporating backwards translation, could possibly lead to different interpretations of given questions, simply based on different wording in the languages. The majority of respondents (around 90%) were from Europe and South America and therefore the findings may not be generalizable to other locations.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Further research is needed to assess the true impact and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for patients living with endometriosis.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study received no funding and the authors declare they have no relevant conflicts of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Prospective predictive performance comparison between clinical gestalt and validated COVID-19 mortality scores

Most COVID-19 mortality scores were developed at the beginning of the pandemic and clinicians now have more experience and evidence-based interventions. Therefore, we hypothesized that the predictive performance of COVID-19 mortality scores is now lower than originally reported. We aimed to prospectively evaluate the current predictive accuracy of six COVID-19 scores and compared it with the accuracy of clinical gestalt predictions. 200 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled in a tertiary hospital in Mexico City between September and December 2020. The area under the curve (AUC) of the LOW-HARM, qSOFA, MSL-COVID-19, NUTRI-CoV, and NEWS2 scores and the AUC of clinical gestalt predictions of death (as a percentage) were determined. In total, 166 patients (106 men and 60 women aged 56±9 years) with confirmed COVID-19 were included in the analysis. The AUC of all scores was significantly lower than originally reported: LOW-HARM 0.76 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.84) vs 0.96 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.98), qSOFA 0.61 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) vs 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81), MSL-COVID-19 0.64 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.73) vs 0.72 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.75), NUTRI-CoV 0.60 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.69) vs 0.79 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.82), NEWS2 0.65 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.75) vs 0.84 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.90), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73) vs 0.74 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.85). Clinical gestalt predictions were non-inferior to mortality scores, with an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77). Adjusting scores with locally derived likelihood ratios did not improve their performance; however, some scores outperformed clinical gestalt predictions when clinicians' confidence of prediction was <80%. Despite its subjective nature, clinical gestalt has relevant advantages in predicting COVID-19 clinical outcomes. The need and performance of most COVID-19 mortality scores need to be evaluated regularly.

Evaluation of Acute Supplementation With the Ketone Ester (R)-3-Hydroxybutyl-(R)-3-Hydroxybutyrate (deltaG) in Healthy Volunteers by Cardiac and Skeletal Muscle 31P Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

In this acute intervention study, we investigated the potential benefit of ketone supplementation in humans by studying cardiac phosphocreatine to adenosine-triphosphate ratios (PCr/ATP) and skeletal muscle PCr recovery using phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy (³¹P-MRS) before and after ingestion of a ketone ester drink. We recruited 28 healthy individuals: 12 aged 23–70 years for cardiac ³¹P-MRS, and 16 aged 60–75 years for skeletal muscle ³¹P-MRS. Baseline and post-intervention resting cardiac and dynamic skeletal muscle ³¹P-MRS scans were performed in one visit, where 25 g of the ketone monoester, deltaG^®, was administered after the baseline scan. Administration was timed so that post-intervention ³¹P-MRS would take place 30 min after deltaG^® ingestion. The deltaG^® ketone drink was well-tolerated by all participants. In participants who provided blood samples, post-intervention blood glucose, lactate and non-esterified fatty acid concentrations decreased significantly (−28.8%, p ≪ 0.001; −28.2%, p = 0.02; and −49.1%, p ≪ 0.001, respectively), while levels of the ketone body D-beta-hydroxybutyrate significantly increased from mean (standard deviation) 0.7 (0.3) to 4.0 (1.1) mmol/L after 30 min (p ≪ 0.001). There were no significant changes in cardiac PCr/ATP or skeletal muscle metabolic parameters between baseline and post-intervention. Acute ketone supplementation caused mild ketosis in blood, with drops in glucose, lactate, and free fatty acids; however, such changes were not associated with changes in ³¹P-MRS measures in the heart or in skeletal muscle. Future work may focus on the effect of longer-term ketone supplementation on tissue energetics in groups with compromised mitochondrial function.

Evaluation of statistical illiteracy in Latin American clinicians and the piloting evaluation of a short course across multiple timepoints

BACKGROUND

All clinicians require statistical interpretation skills to keep up to date with evidence-based recommendations in their field. However, statistical illiteracy among clinicians is a highly prevalent problem with far-reaching consequences. The few available that report statistical literacy improvements after educational interventions do not measure for how long these benefits last. To estimate statistical illiteracy among Latin-American clinicians across multiple levels of training and to evaluate a 10-h course at multiple timepoints.

METHODS

Using an online questionnaire, we evaluated; self-perceived statistical proficiency, scientific literature reading habits and statistical literacy (using an adaptation of the Quick Risk Test). Separately, we evaluated statistical proficiency after a 10-h statistics course in a group of Internal Medicine residents at a tertiary center in Mexico City across multiple time points between November 2020 and February 2021.

RESULTS

Data from 392 clinicians from 9 Latin American countries were analyzed. Most clinicians (85%) failed our adaptation of the Quick Risk Test (mean score = 2.6/10, IQR:1.4). The 10-h course significantly improved the scores of the Internal Medicine Residents (n = 16) from 3.8/10, IQR:1.8 to 8.3/10, IQR:1.4 (p < 0.01). However, scores dropped after one and 2 months to 7.7/10, IQR:1.6 and 6.1 / 10, IQR:2.2, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Statistical Illiteracy is highly prevalent among Latin American clinicians. Short-term educational interventions are effective but, their benefits quickly fade away. Medical boards and medical schools need to periodically teach and evaluate statistical proficiency to ameliorate these issues.

Elevated LDL Cholesterol with a Carbohydrate-Restricted Diet: Evidence for a "Lean Mass Hyper-Responder" Phenotype

BACKGROUND

People commencing a carbohydrate-restricted diet (CRD) experience markedly heterogenous responses in LDL cholesterol, ranging from extreme elevations to reductions.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to elucidate possible sources of heterogeneity in LDL cholesterol response to a CRD and thereby identify individuals who may be at risk for LDL cholesterol elevation.

METHODS

Hypothesis-naive analyses were conducted on web survey data from 548 adults consuming a CRD. Univariate and multivariate regression models and regression trees were built to evaluate the interaction between body mass index (BMI) and baseline lipid markers. Data were also collected from a case series of five clinical patients with extremely high LDL cholesterol consuming a CRD.

RESULTS

BMI was inversely associated with LDL cholesterol change. Low triglyceride (TG) to HDL cholesterol ratio, a marker of good metabolic health, predicted larger LDL cholesterol increases. A subgroup of respondents with LDL cholesterol ≥200 mg/dL, HDL cholesterol ≥80 mg/dL, and TG ≤70 mg/dL were characterized as "lean mass hyper-responders." Respondents with this phenotype (n = 100) had a lower BMI and, remarkably, similar prior LDL cholesterol versus other respondents. In the case series, moderate reintroduction of carbohydrate produced a marked decrease in LDL cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that, in contrast to the typical pattern of dyslipidemia, greater LDL cholesterol elevation on a CRD tends to occur in the context of otherwise low cardiometabolic risk.

Case Report: Hypercholesterolemia "Lean Mass Hyper-Responder" Phenotype Presents in the Context of a Low Saturated Fat Carbohydrate-Restricted Diet

Emerging evidence suggests that "leanness" and good metabolic health markers may predict larger increases in LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) in response to carbohydrate restriction. Specifically, a recent cohort study demonstrated an inverse association between BMI and LDL-C change among individuals on carbohydrate-restricted diets and identified a subgroup of "Lean Mass Hyper-Responders" (LMHR) who exhibit exceptional increases in LDL-C, in the context of low triglycerides and high HDL-C. We present the case of one subject, LM, who adopted a ketogenic diet for management of ulcerative colitis. He subsequently experienced an increase in LDL-C from 95 to 545 mg/dl, at peak, in association with HDL-C >100 mg/dl and triglycerides ~40 mg/dl, typical of the emergent LMHR phenotype. Assessments of LM's dietary intake, lipid panels, and BMI are consistent with prior data and suggest that the LMHR phenomenon is not dependent on saturated fat intake but inversely associates with BMI changes. Finally, computed tomography angiography conducted on LM after over 2 years of hypercholesterolemia revealed no evidence of calcified or non-calcified plaque.

Exogenous ketosis in patients with type 2 diabetes: Safety, tolerability and effect on glycaemic control

Introduction

Ketogenic diets have shown to improve glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study investigated the safety, tolerability, and effects on glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes of an exogenous ketone monoester (KE) capable of inducing fasting‐like elevations in serum β‐hydroxybutyrate (βHB) without the need for caloric or carbohydrate restriction.

Methods

Twenty one participants (14 men and 7 women, aged 45 ± 11 years) with insulin‐independent type 2 diabetes, and unchanged hypoglycaemic medication for the previous 6 months, were recruited for this non‐randomised interventional study. Participants wore intermittent scanning glucose monitors (IS‐GM) for a total of 6 weeks and were given 25 ml of KE 3 times daily for 4 weeks. Serum electrolytes, acid‐base status, and βHB concentrations were measured weekly and cardiovascular risk markers were measured before and after the intervention. The primary endpoints were safety and tolerability, with the secondary endpoint being glycaemic control.

Results

The 21 participants consumed a total of 1,588 drinks (39.7 litres) of KE over the course of the intervention. Adverse reactions were mild and infrequent, including mild nausea, headache, and gastric discomfort following fewer than 0.5% of the drinks. Serum electrolyte concentrations, acid‐base status, and renal function remained normal throughout the study. Compared to baseline, exogenous ketosis induced a significant decrease in all glycaemic control markers, including fructosamine (335 ± 60 μmol/L to 290 ± 49 μmol/L, p < .01), HbA1c (61 ± 10 mmol/mol to 55 ± 9 mmol/mol [7.7 ± 0.9% to 7.2 ± 0.9%], p < .01), mean daily glucose (7.8 ± 1.4 mM to 7.4 ± 1.3 mM [140 ± 23 mg/dl to 133 ± 25 mg/dl], p < .01) and time in range (67 ± 11% to 69 ± 10%, p < .01).

Conclusions

Constant ketone monoester consumption over 1 month was safe, well tolerated, and improved glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes.

This study involved a month of closely supervised exogenous ketosis using a ketone monoester. Additionally, it involved six weeks of continuous glucose monitorization to compare glucose control before, during and after exogenous ketosis. Exogenous ketosis was safe, well‐tolerated and improved glucose control.

Stroke in systemic lupus erythematosus: epidemiology, mechanism, and long-term outcome

Objective

To determine stroke prevalence, mechanisms, and long-term outcome in a cohort of Hispanic patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

Methods

We analyzed demographical data, the timing between SLE diagnosis and stroke onset, stroke type, recurrence, and outcomes from an institutional database of 4451 patients with SLE followed from 1993 to 2018.

Results

We observed 139 strokes (3.1%), for an incidence rate of 1.25 per 1000 person-years: 81 (58.3%) acute ischemic stroke (AIS), 19 (13.7%) subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), 17 (12.2%) cerebral venous thrombosis, 13 (9.4%) intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 9 (6.5%) transient ischemic attack. Median time from SLE diagnosis to acute stroke was 60 months (interquartile range 12–132 months). AIS had a bimodal presentation with 26% occurring within the first year and 30% >10 years after SLE diagnosis. In contrast, 75% of ICH cases occurred >3 years (and 34% >10 years) after SLE diagnosis. The most important cause of AIS was secondary antiphospholipid syndrome (48%). Hypertension was associated with 69% of ICH cases, while aneurysmal rupture was observed in 78% of SAH cases. Excellent recovery at hospital discharge was observed in 65%. Stroke recurrence was observed in 7%. The long-term all-cause fatality rate was 8%.

Conclusions

The prevalence of stroke in this cohort was 3.1%. Ischemic strokes had a bimodal presentation, occurring either early after SLE diagnosis or after a several-year delay. Half of the hemorrhagic strokes occurred >10 years after the diagnosis of SLE. Clinical outcome was usually good with a relatively low recurrence rate.

Myocardial connexin-43 and N-Cadherin decrease during vanadium inhalation

Particulate matter air pollution has considerably increased during the last decades; vanadium is a transition element adhered to this particulate matter, and the combustion of fossil fuels is the main source in the atmosphere. It has been reported that air pollution and specifically vanadium exposure increases the probability of suffering arrhythmias; however the biological mechanism of such a relationship remains unknown. It has been established that a diminished presence of N-Cadherin alters the Connexin-43 arrangement, and the consequent altered presence of these proteins predisposes to ventricular heart rate problems. We analyzed myocardial histology and the expression of N-Cadherin and Connexin-43 by immunohistochemistry in mouse that inhaled vanadium. Our results showed a significant and progressive reduction in both N-Cadherin and Connexin-43, as well as the presence of meganucleus; myofibrils disruption, and clumping in the exposed groups were also observed. Our findings add more information about a possible explanation for the arrythmogenic effect observed in dwellers of cities with high particulate matter atmospheric pollution.