Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable

Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.

An anchovy ecosystem indicator of marine predator foraging and reproduction

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandt's cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Recent and historical data show no evidence of Pacific bluefin tuna reproduction in the southern California Current system

Despite their broad distribution across the North Pacific Ocean, the only known spawning grounds for Pacific Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus orientalis) are around coastal Japan and the East China Sea. However, an increase in the prevalence of large bluefin tuna up to 10 years old in the California Current System during exceptionally warm ocean conditions has led to speculation that they may be spawning in this region. To investigate this possibility, we collected samples from 36 females (estimated 3–8 years old) between 2015 and 2019. Histological analyses revealed no signs of imminent, active, or recent spawning. Further examination of historical ichthyoplankton collections showed no records of larval bluefin tuna, but confirmed the presence of the larvae of other tuna species in waters > 24°C. Fishery-dependent records showed that bluefin tuna are rarely recorded in purse seine catches where surface temperatures exceed 23°C. Our study, therefore, provided no evidence of bluefin tuna reproduction in the CCS. However, more comprehensive sampling, in particular off southern Baja California, may be required to confirm the absence of spawning.

Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

Trophic ecology of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) [corrected] larvae from the Gulf of Mexico and NW Mediterranean spawning grounds: A Comparative Stable Isotope Study

The present study uses stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon (δ¹⁵Nandδ¹³C) as trophic indicators for Atlantic bluefin tuna larvae (BFT) (6–10 mm standard length) in the highly contrasting environmental conditions of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Balearic Sea (MED). These regions are differentiated by their temperature regime and relative productivity, with the GOM being significantly warmer and more productive. MED BFT larvae showed the highest δ¹⁵N signatures, implying an elevated trophic position above the underlying microzooplankton baseline. Ontogenetic dietary shifts were observed in the BFT larvae from the GOM and MED which indicates early life trophodynamics differences between these spawning habitats. Significant trophic differences between the GOM and MED larvae were observed in relation to δ¹⁵N signatures in favour of the MED larvae, which may have important implications in their growth during their early life stages.These low δ¹⁵N levels in the zooplankton from the GOM may be an indication of a shifting isotopic baseline in pelagic food webs due to diatrophic inputs by cyanobacteria. Lack of enrichment for δ¹⁵N in BFT larvae compared to zooplankton implies an alternative grazing pathway from the traditional food chain of phytoplankton—zooplankton—larval fish. Results provide insight for a comparative characterization of the trophic pathways variability of the two main spawning grounds for BFT larvae.

Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Overlap between Atlantic bluefin tuna spawning grounds and observed Deepwater Horizon surface oil in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill impacted the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) during the spring spawning season of Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT). Overlap between BFT spawning habitat and surface oil in the northern GOM was examined using satellite-derived estimates of oil coverage, and spawning habitat models. Results suggested that although eggs and larvae were likely impacted by oil-contaminated waters in the eastern GOM, high abundances of larvae were located elsewhere, especially in the western GOM. Overall, less than 10% of BFT spawning habitat was predicted to have been covered by surface oil, and less than 12% of larval BFT were predicted to have been located within contaminated waters in the northern GOM, on a weekly basis. Our results provide preliminary but important initial estimates of the effects of the spill on larval BFT mortality, as concern continues over the appropriate management responses to impacts of the spill.