Statistical rules for safety monitoring in clinical trials

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Protecting patient safety is an essential component of the conduct of clinical trials. Rigorous safety monitoring schemes are implemented for these studies to guard against excess toxicity risk from study therapies. They often include protocol-specified stopping rules dictating that an excessive number of safety events will trigger a halt of the study. Statistical methods are useful for constructing rules that protect patients from exposure to excessive toxicity while also maintaining the chance of a false safety signal at a low level. Several statistical techniques have been proposed for this purpose, but the current literature lacks a rigorous comparison to determine which method may be best suitable for a given trial design. The aims of this article are (1) to describe a general framework for repeated monitoring of safety events in clinical trials; (2) to survey common statistical techniques for creating safety stopping criteria; and (3) to provide investigators with a software tool for constructing and assessing these stopping rules.

METHODS

The properties and operating characteristics of stopping rules produced by Pocock and O'Brien-Fleming tests, Bayesian Beta-Binomial models, and sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs) are studied and compared for common scenarios that may arise in phase II and III trials. We developed the R package "stoppingrule" for constructing and evaluating stopping rules from these methods. Its usage is demonstrated through a redesign of a stopping rule for BMT CTN 0601 (registered at Clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00745420), a phase II, single-arm clinical trial that evaluated outcomes in pediatric sickle cell disease patients treated by bone marrow transplant.

RESULTS

Methods with aggressive stopping criteria early in the trial, such as the Pocock test and Bayesian Beta-Binomial models with weak priors, have permissive stopping criteria at late stages. This results in a trade-off where rules with aggressive early monitoring generally will have a smaller number of expected toxicities but also lower power than rules with more conservative early stopping, such as the O-Brien-Fleming test and Beta-Binomial models with strong priors. The modified SPRT method is sensitive to the choice of alternative toxicity rate. The maximized SPRT generally has a higher number of expected toxicities and/or worse power than other methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Because the goal is to minimize the number of patients exposed to and experiencing toxicities from an unsafe therapy, we recommend using the Pocock or Beta-Binomial, weak prior methods for constructing safety stopping rules. At the design stage, the operating characteristics of candidate rules should be evaluated under various possible toxicity rates in order to guide the choice of rule(s) for a given trial; our R package facilitates this evaluation.

Posttransplantation late complications increase over time for patients with SCID: A Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) landmark study

BACKGROUND

The Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) enrolled children in the United States and Canada onto a retrospective multicenter natural history study of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT).

OBJECTIVE

We investigated outcomes of HCT for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID).

METHODS

We evaluated the chronic and late effects (CLE) after HCT for SCID in 399 patients transplanted from 1982 to 2012 at 32 PIDTC centers. Eligibility criteria included survival to at least 2 years after HCT without need for subsequent cellular therapy. CLE were defined as either conditions present at any time before 2 years from HCT that remained unresolved (chronic), or new conditions that developed beyond 2 years after HCT (late).

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of CLE was 25% in those alive at 2 years, increasing to 41% at 15 years after HCT. CLE were most prevalent in the neurologic (9%), neurodevelopmental (8%), and dental (8%) categories. Chemotherapy-based conditioning was associated with decreased-height z score at 2 to 5 years after HCT (P < .001), and with endocrine (P < .001) and dental (P = .05) CLE. CD4 count of ≤500 cells/μL and/or continued need for immunoglobulin replacement therapy >2 years after transplantation were associated with lower-height z scores. Continued survival from 2 to 15 years after HCT was 90%. The presence of any CLE was associated with increased risk of late death (hazard ratio, 7.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.71-19.18; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Late morbidity after HCT for SCID was substantial, with an adverse impact on overall survival. This study provides evidence for development of survivorship guidelines based on disease characteristics and treatment exposure for patients after HCT for SCID.

Dynamic Treatment Regimes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Censored Outcomes

To achieve the goal of providing the best possible care to each individual under their care, physicians need to customize treatments for individuals with the same health state, especially when treating diseases that can progress further and require additional treatments, such as cancer. Making decisions at multiple stages as a disease progresses can be formalized as a dynamic treatment regime (DTR). Most of the existing optimization approaches for estimating dynamic treatment regimes including the popular method of Q-learning were developed in a frequentist context. Recently, a general Bayesian machine learning framework that facilitates using Bayesian regression modeling to optimize DTRs has been proposed. In this article, we adapt this approach to censored outcomes using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) for each stage under the accelerated failure time modeling framework, along with simulation studies and a real data example that compare the proposed approach with Q-learning. We also develop an R wrapper function that utilizes a standard BART survival model to optimize DTRs for censored outcomes. The wrapper function can easily be extended to accommodate any type of Bayesian machine learning model.

Intestinal microbiome and metabolome signatures in patients with chronic granulomatous disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is caused by defects in any 1 of the 6 subunits forming the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase complex 2 (NOX2), leading to severely reduced or absent phagocyte-derived reactive oxygen species production. Almost 50% of patients with CGD have inflammatory bowel disease (CGD-IBD). While conventional IBD therapies can treat CGD-IBD, their benefits must be weighed against the risk of infection. Understanding the impact of NOX2 defects on the intestinal microbiota may lead to the identification of novel CGD-IBD treatments.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to identify microbiome and metabolome signatures that can distinguish individuals with CGD and CGD-IBD.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional observational study of 79 patients with CGD, 8 pathogenic variant carriers, and 19 healthy controls followed at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center. We profiled the intestinal microbiome (amplicon sequencing) and stool metabolome, and validated our findings in a second cohort of 36 patients with CGD recruited through the Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium.

RESULTS

We identified distinct intestinal microbiome and metabolome profiles in patients with CGD compared to healthy individuals. We observed enrichment for Erysipelatoclostridium spp, Sellimonas spp, and Lachnoclostridium spp in CGD stool samples. Despite differences in bacterial alpha and beta diversity between the 2 cohorts, several taxa correlated significantly between both cohorts. We further demonstrated that patients with CGD-IBD have a distinct microbiome and metabolome profile compared to patients without CGD-IBD.

CONCLUSION

Intestinal microbiome and metabolome signatures distinguished patients with CGD and CGD-IBD, and identified potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets.

Clinical impact of cryopreservation of allogeneic hematopoietic cell grafts during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the National Marrow Donor Program mandated the cryopreservation of hematopoietic cell grafts from volunteer unrelated donors because of numerous patient and donor safety concerns and logistical hurdles. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research outcomes database, we report the impact of cryopreservation on overall survival (OS) and other outcomes within 1 year after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We analyzed 1543 recipients of cryopreserved allografts receiving HCT at US centers during the first 6 months of the pandemic and compared them with 2499 recipients of fresh allografts during a 6-month period in 2019. On multivariable regression analysis, we observed no difference in the OS (P = .09), nonrelapse mortality (P = .89), graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), or GVHD- and relapse-free survival (P = .58) in recipients of cryopreserved vs fresh allografts. Disease-free survival (DFS) was lower in the cryopreserved allograft recipients (P = .006) because of a higher risk of relapse (P = .01) compared with the fresh allograft recipients. Primary graft failure was higher (P = .01), and the risk of chronic GVHD was lower (P = .001) with cryopreservation compared with fresh grafts. In conclusion, although there was no negative impact of cryopreservation on OS, relapse was higher, and DFS was lower than that with no cryopreservation. Fresh grafts are recommended as the pandemic-related logistical hurdles resolve. Cryopreservation should be considered an option for patients when fresh grafts are not feasible.

Validated graft-specific biomarkers identify patients at risk for chronic graft-versus-host disease and death

BACKGROUNDChronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) is a serious complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). More accurate information regarding the risk of developing cGVHD is required. Bone marrow (BM) grafts contribute to lower cGVHD, which creates a dispute over whether risk biomarker scores should be used for peripheral blood (PB) and BM.METHODSDay 90 plasma proteomics from PB and BM recipients developing cGVHD revealed 5 risk markers that were added to 8 previous cGVHD markers to screen 982 HCT samples of 2 multicenter Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMTCTN) cohorts. Each marker was tested for its association with cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of cGVHD using Cox-proportional-hazards models. We paired these clinical studies with biomarker measurements in a mouse model of cGVHD.RESULTSSpearman correlations between DKK3 and MMP3 were significant in both cohorts. In BMTCTN 0201 multivariate analyses, PB recipients with 1-log increase in CXCL9 and DKK3 were 1.3 times (95% CI: 1.1-1.4, P = 0.001) and 1.9 times (95%CI: 1.1-3.2, P = 0.019) and BM recipients with 1-log increase in CXCL10 and MMP3 were 1.3 times (95%CI: 1.0-1.6, P = 0.018 and P = 0.023) more likely to develop cGVHD. In BMTCTN 1202, PB patients with high CXCL9 and MMP3 were 1.1 times (95%CI: 1.0-1.2, P = 0.037) and 1.2 times (95%CI: 1.0-1.3, P = 0.009) more likely to develop cGVHD. PB patients with high biomarkers had increased likelihood to develop cGVHD in both cohorts (22%-32% versus 8%-12%, P = 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively). Mice showed elevated circulating biomarkers before the signs of cGVHD.CONCLUSIONBiomarker levels at 3 months after HCT identify patients at risk for cGVHD occurrence.FUNDINGNIH grants R01CA168814, R21HL139934, P01CA158505, T32AI007313, and R01CA264921.

Measuring the effect of newborn screening on survival after haematopoietic cell transplantation for severe combined immunodeficiency: a 36-year longitudinal study from the Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium

BACKGROUND

Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) is fatal unless durable adaptive immunity is established, most commonly through allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). The Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) explored factors affecting the survival of individuals with SCID over almost four decades, focusing on the effects of population-based newborn screening for SCID that was initiated in 2008 and expanded during 2010-18.

METHODS

We analysed transplantation-related data from children with SCID treated at 34 PIDTC sites in the USA and Canada, using the calendar time intervals 1982-89, 1990-99, 2000-09, and 2010-18. Categorical variables were compared by χ2 test and continuous outcomes by the Kruskal-Wallis test. Overall survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression models examined risk factors for HCT outcomes, including the variables of time interval of HCT, infection status and age at HCT, trigger for diagnosis, SCID type and genotype, race and ethnicity of the patient, non-HLA-matched sibling donor type, graft type, GVHD prophylaxis, and conditioning intensity.

FINDINGS

For 902 children with confirmed SCID, 5-year overall survival remained unchanged at 72%-73% for 28 years until 2010-18, when it increased to 87% (95% CI 82·1-90·6; n=268; p=0·0005). For children identified as having SCID by newborn screening since 2010, 5-year overall survival was 92·5% (95% CI 85·8-96·1), better than that of children identified by clinical illness or family history in the same interval (79·9% [69·5-87·0] and 85·4% [71·8-92·8], respectively [p=0·043]). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the factors of active infection (hazard ratio [HR] 2·41, 95% CI 1·56-3·72; p<0·0001), age 3·5 months or older at HCT (2·12, 1·38-3·24; p=0·001), Black or African-American race (2·33, 1·56-3·46; p<0·0001), and certain SCID genotypes to be associated with lower overall survival during all time intervals. Moreover, after adjusting for several factors in this multivariable analysis, HCT after 2010 no longer conveyed a survival advantage over earlier time intervals studied (HR 0·73, 95% CI 0·43-1·26; p=0·097). This indicated that younger age and freedom from infections at HCT, both directly driven by newborn screening, were the main drivers for recent improvement in overall survival.

INTERPRETATION

Population-based newborn screening has facilitated the identification of infants with SCID early in life, in turn leading to prompt HCT while avoiding infections. Public health programmes worldwide can benefit from this definitive demonstration of the value of newborn screening for SCID.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Office of Rare Diseases Research, and National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences.

Worldwide sources of data in haematology: Importance of clinician-biostatistician collaboration

The field of haematology has benefitted greatly from registry-based observational research. Medical and technical advances, changes in regulations and events such as the global pandemic is changing the landscape for registries. This review describes features of high-quality registries, statistical approaches and study design needed, an overview of worldwide hematologic registries, and how registries are evolving and expanding. The importance of collaborations between biostatisticians and haematologists in designing and conducting registry-related research is highlighted.

Association of ABO mismatch with the outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for acute leukemia

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is a potentially curative treatment for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). While many factors influence the outcomes of allo-HCT, the independent impact of donor-recipient ABO mismatching remains unclear. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) database, we identified patients aged ≥18 years with AML or ALL who underwent allo-HCT between 2008 and 2018. Our objectives were to analyze the outcomes of allo-HCT based on the donor-recipient ABO status (match, minor mismatch, major mismatch, bidirectional mismatch). Among 4946 eligible patients, 2741 patients (55.4%) were ABO matched, 1030 patients (20.8%) had a minor ABO mismatch, 899 patients (18.1%) had a major ABO mismatch, and 276 patients (5.6%) had a bidirectional ABO mismatch. In multivariable analyses, compared to ABO matched allo-HCT, the presence of a major ABO mismatch was associated with worse overall survival (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.29; p = 0.005), inferior platelet engraftment (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.90; p < 0.001), and higher primary graft failure (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.12-2.30, p = 0.01). Relapse, acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) grades III-IV and chronic GVHD were not significantly associated with ABO status. While donor age was not significantly associated with outcomes, older recipient age was associated with worse survival and non-relapse mortality. Our study demonstrates that donor-recipient ABO status is independently associated with survival and other post-transplantation outcomes in acute leukemia. This underscores the importance of considering the ABO status in donor selection algorithms and its impact in acute leukemia.

Three-Year Outcomes in Recipients of Mismatched Unrelated Bone Marrow Donor Transplants Using Post-Transplantation Cyclophosphamide: Follow-Up from a National Marrow Donor Program-Sponsored Prospective Clinical Trial

The use of post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy) as graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis has resulted in reductions in GVHD and improved outcomes in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) using HLA-mismatched related donors. We report the 3-year outcomes of the first multicenter prospective clinical trial using PTCy in the setting of mismatched unrelated donor (MMUD) bone marrow HCT. The study enrolled 80 patients, treated with either myeloablative conditioning (MAC; n = 40) or reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC; n = 40), with the primary endpoint of 1-year overall survival (OS). The median follow-up for this study was 34 months (range, 12 to 46 months) in the RIC group and 36 months (range, 18 to 49 months) in the MAC group. Three-year OS and nonrelapse mortality were 70% and 15%, respectively, in the RIC group and 62% and 10% in the MAC group. No GVHD was reported after 1 year. The incidence of relapse was 29% in the RIC group and 51% in the MAC group. OS did not differ based on HLA match grade (63% in the 7/8 strata and 71% in the 4 to 6/8 strata). These encouraging outcomes, which were sustained for 3 years post-HCT, support the continued exploration of MMUD HCT using a PTCy platform. Important future areas to address include relapse reduction and furthering our understanding of optimal donor selection based on HLA and non-HLA factors.

Health-related quality of life in reduced-intensity hematopoietic cell transplantation based on donor availability in patients aged 50-75 with advanced myelodysplastic syndrome: BMT CTN 1102

For myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) is the only available curative therapy. The Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network study 1102 (BMT CTN 1102, NCT02016781) was a multicenter, biologic assignment trial based on matched donor availability in adults aged 50-75 with higher risk de novo MDS who were candidates for reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) alloHCT. The primary analysis showed that those who received alloHCT had a survival benefit, but whether this is at the cost of worse quality of life (QOL) has not been described in detail. English- and Spanish-speaking trial participants completed the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General (FACT-G), the SF-36, and the EQ-5D, at enrollment, every 6 months until 24 months, and 36 months. We compared patient-reported outcome (PRO) scores between study arms using an inverse probability weighted-independent estimating equation (IPW-IEE) model. Between January 2014 and November 2018, 384 subjects (median age 66.7 years, range: 50.1-75.3) enrolled at 34 centers. PRO completion rates were generally high at 65%-78%. The PRO trajectories for both arms were similar, with most decreasing or stable from baseline to 6 months and improving thereafter. Baseline PRO scores were the most consistent independent predictors of subsequent QOL outcomes and survival, even after controlling for clinical and patient-level factors. For older adults with MDS, the survival advantage associated with donor availability and alloHCT did not come at the cost of worse QOL. These results should reassure older patients and clinicians who prefer a curative approach to treating MDS.

Expanded HCT-CI Definitions Capture Comorbidity Better for Younger Patients of Allogeneic HCT for Nonmalignant Diseases

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) can cure many nonmalignant conditions, but concern for morbidity and mortality remains. To help physicians estimate patient-specific transplant mortality risk, the HCT comorbidity index (HCT-CI) is used. However, pediatric physicians use the HCT-CI less frequently than adult counterparts. We used the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database to expand the HCT-CI comorbidity definitions to be more inclusive of children and adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients, adding history of mechanical ventilation, history of invasive fungal infection, assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) by estimated glomerular filtration rate, expanding the definition of obesity, and adding an underweight category. A total of 2815 children and AYAs (<40 years old) who received first allogeneic HCT for nonmalignant diseases from 2008 to 2017 were included to create an expanded youth nonmalignant HCT-CI (expanded ynHCT-CI) and a simplified non-malignant (simplified ynHCT-CI) HCT-CI. The expanded comorbidities occurred frequently-history of mechanical ventilation (9.6%), history of invasive fungal infection (5.9%), mild CKD (12.2%), moderate/severe CKD (2.1%), obesity (10.9%), and underweight (14.5%). Thirty-nine percent of patients had an increase in their comorbidity score using the expanded ynHCT-CI, leading to a redistribution of scores: ynHCT-CI score 0 (35%), 1-2 (36.4%), and ≥3 (28.6%). Patients with an increase in their comorbidity score had an increased hazard of mortality compared to those whose score remained the same (hazard ratio = 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.98). Modifications to the HCT-CI can benefit children and AYA patients with nonmalignant diseases, creating a risk assessment tool that is clinically relevant and better captures comorbidity in this younger population.

Adapting the HCT-CI Definitions for Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults with Hematologic Malignancies Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation is a curative procedure for hematologic malignancies but is associated with a significant risk of non-relapse mortality (NRM). The Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) is a prognostic tool that discriminates this risk in all age groups. A recent survey of transplant physicians demonstrated that 79% of pediatric providers used the HCT-CI infrequently, and most reported concerns about its applicability in the younger population. We conducted a retrospective study using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database to examine the impact of expanded HCT-CI definitions on NRM in pediatric and young adult patients with hematologic malignancies. We included 5790 patients <40 years old receiving allogeneic transplants between 2008 and 2017 to examine broader definitions of comorbidities in the HCT-CI, including history of mechanical ventilation and fungal infection, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and body mass index (BMI) percentiles. Multivariable Fine-Gray models were created to determine the effect of each HCT-CI defining comorbidity and its modification on NRM and were used to develop 2 novel risk scores. We next developed the expanded HCT-CI for children and young adults (youth with malignancies; expanded ymHCT-CI), where 23% patients had an increased comorbidity score, compared to the HCT-CI. Comorbidities with hazard ratio < 1.2 were then removed to create the simplified HCT-CI for children and young adults (youth with malignancies; simplified ymHCT-CI), which demonstrated higher scores corresponded to a greater risk of NRM (P < .001). These novel comorbidity indexes with broader definitions are more relevant to pediatric and young adult patients, and prospective studies are needed to validate these in the younger patient population. It remains to be seen whether the development of these pediatric-specific and practical risk indexes increases their use by the pediatric transplant community.

Aberrant T-cell exhaustion in severe combined immunodeficiency survivors with poor T-cell reconstitution after transplantation

BACKGROUND

Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) comprises rare inherited disorders of immunity that require definitive treatment through hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) or gene therapy for survival. Despite successes of allogeneic HCT, many SCID patients experience incomplete immune reconstitution, persistent T-cell lymphopenia, and poor long-term outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

We hypothesized that CD4+ T-cell lymphopenia could be associated with a state of T-cell exhaustion in previously transplanted SCID patients.

METHODS

We analyzed markers of exhaustion in blood samples from 61 SCID patients at a median of 10.4 years after HCT.

RESULTS

Compared to post-HCT SCID patients with normal CD4+ T-cell counts, those with poor T-cell reconstitution showed lower frequency of naive CD45RA+/CCR7+ T cells, recent thymic emigrants, and TCR excision circles. They also had a restricted TCR repertoire, increased expression of inhibitory receptors (PD-1, 2B4, CD160, BTLA, CTLA-4), and increased activation markers (HLA-DR, perforin) on their total and naive CD8+ T cells, suggesting T-cell exhaustion and aberrant activation, respectively. The exhaustion score of CD8+ T cells was inversely correlated with CD4+ T-cell count, recent thymic emigrants, TCR excision circles, and TCR diversity. Exhaustion scores were higher among recipients of unconditioned HCT, especially when further in time from HCT. Patients with fewer CD4+ T cells showed a transcriptional signature of exhaustion.

CONCLUSIONS

Recipients of unconditioned HCT for SCID may develop late post-HCT T-cell exhaustion as a result of diminished production of T-lineage cells. Elevated expression of inhibitory receptors on their T cells may be a biomarker of poor long-term T-cell reconstitution.

Haploidentical bone marrow transplantation in patients with relapsed or refractory severe aplastic anaemia in the USA (BMT CTN 1502): a multicentre, single-arm, phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Relapsed severe aplastic anaemia is a marrow failure disorder with high morbidity and mortality. It is often treated with bone marrow transplantation at relapse post-immunosuppressive therapy, but under-represented minorities often cannot find a suitably matched donor. This study aimed to understand the 1-year overall survival in patients with relapsed or refractory severe aplastic anaemia after haploidentical bone marrow transplantation.

METHODS

We report the outcomes of BMT CTN 1502, a single-arm, phase 2 clinical trial done at academic bone marrow transplantation centres in the USA. Included patients were children and adults (75 years or younger) with severe aplastic anaemia that was refractory (fulfilment of severe aplastic anaemia disease criteria at least 3 months after initial immunosuppressive therapy) or relapsed (initial improvement of cytopenias after first-line immunosuppressive therapy but then a later return to fulfilment of severe aplastic anaemia disease criteria), adequate performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score 0 or 1, Karnofsky or Lansky score ≥60%), and the presence of an eligible related haploidentical donor. The regimen used reduced-intensity conditioning (rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin 4·5 mg/kg in total, cyclophosphamide 14·5 mg/kg daily for 2 days, fludarabine 30 mg/m2 daily for 5 days, total body irradiation 200 cGy in a single fraction), related HLA-haploidentical donors, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide-based graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis. Additionally, for GVHD prophylaxis, mycophenolate mofetil was given orally at a dose of 15 mg/kg three times a day up to 1 g three times a day (maximum dose 3000 mg per day) from day 5 to day 35, and tacrolimus was given orally or intravenously from day 5 to day 180 as per institutional standards to maintain a serum concentration of 10-15 ng/mL. The primary endpoint was overall survival 1 year after bone marrow transplantation. All patients treated per protocol were analysed. This study is complete and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02918292.

FINDINGS

Between May 1, 2017, and Aug 30, 2020, 32 patients with relapsed or refractory severe aplastic anaemia were enrolled from 14 centres, and 31 underwent bone marrow transplantation. The median age was 24·9 years (IQR 10·4-51·3), and median follow-up was 24·3 months (IQR 12·1-29·2). Of the 31 patients who received a transplant, 19 (61%) were male and 12 (39%) female. 13 (42%) patients were site-reported as non-White, and 19 (61%) were from under-represented racial and ethnic groups; there were four (13%) patients who were Asian, seven (23%) Black, one (3%) Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, and one (3%) more than one race, with seven (23%) patients reporting Hispanic ethnicity. 24 (77%) of 31 patients were alive with engraftment at 1 year, and one (3%) patient alive with autologous recovery. The 1-year overall survival was 81% (95% CI 62-91). The most common grade 3-5 adverse events (seen in seven or more patients) included seven (23%) patients with abnormal liver tests, 15 (48%) patients with cardiovascular changes (including sinus tachycardia, heart failure, pericarditis), ten (32%) patients with gastrointestinal issues, seven (23%) patients with nutritional disorders, and eight (26%) patients with respiratory disorders. Six (19%) deaths, due to disease and unsuccessful bone marrow transplantation, were reported after transplantation.

INTERPRETATION

Haploidentical bone marrow transplantation using this approach results in excellent overall survival with minimal GVHD in patients who have not responded to immunosuppressive therapy, and can expand access to bone marrow transplantation across all populations. In clinical practice, this could now be considered a standard approach for salvage treatment of severe aplastic anaemia. Attention to obtaining high cell doses (>2·5 × 108 nucleated marrow cells per kg of recipient ideal bodyweight) from bone marrow harvests is crucial to the success of this approach.

FUNDING

US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and US National Cancer Institute.

Outcomes following treatment for ADA-deficient severe combined immunodeficiency: a report from the PIDTC

Adenosine deaminase (ADA) deficiency causes ∼13% of cases of severe combined immune deficiency (SCID). Treatments include enzyme replacement therapy (ERT), hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT), and gene therapy (GT). We evaluated 131 patients with ADA-SCID diagnosed between 1982 and 2017 who were enrolled in the Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium SCID studies. Baseline clinical, immunologic, genetic characteristics, and treatment outcomes were analyzed. First definitive cellular therapy (FDCT) included 56 receiving HCT without preceding ERT (HCT); 31 HCT preceded by ERT (ERT-HCT); and 33 GT preceded by ERT (ERT-GT). Five-year event-free survival (EFS, alive, no need for further ERT or cellular therapy) was 49.5% (HCT), 73% (ERT-HCT), and 75.3% (ERT-GT; P < .01). Overall survival (OS) at 5 years after FDCT was 72.5% (HCT), 79.6% (ERT-HCT), and 100% (ERT-GT; P = .01). Five-year OS was superior for patients undergoing HCT at <3.5 months of age (91.6% vs 68% if ≥3.5 months, P = .02). Active infection at the time of HCT (regardless of ERT) decreased 5-year EFS (33.1% vs 68.2%, P < .01) and OS (64.7% vs 82.3%, P = .02). Five-year EFS (90.5%) and OS (100%) were best for matched sibling and matched family donors (MSD/MFD). For patients treated after the year 2000 and without active infection at the time of FDCT, no difference in 5-year EFS or OS was found between HCT using a variety of transplant approaches and ERT-GT. This suggests alternative donor HCT may be considered when MSD/MFD HCT and GT are not available, particularly when newborn screening identifies patients with ADA-SCID soon after birth and before the onset of infections. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01186913 and #NCT01346150.

Impact of Changes of the 2020 Consensus Definitions of Invasive Aspergillosis on Clinical Trial Design: Unintended Consequences for Prevention Trials?

Background

Consensus definitions for the diagnosis of invasive fungal diseases (IFDs) were updated in 2020 to increase the certainty of IFD for inclusion in clinical trials, for instance by increasing biomarker cutoff limits to define positivity. To date, there is a paucity of data as to the impact of the revised definitions on clinical trials.

Methods

In this study, we sought to determine the impact of the new definitions on classifying invasive aspergillosis (IA), the most common invasive mold disease in immunocompromised patients. We reclassified 226 proven and probable IA cases plus 139 possible IFD cases in the Aspergillus Technology Consortium (AsTeC) and in an antifungal prophylaxis trial (BMT CTN 0101) using the new criteria.

Results

Fewer cases met the more stringent diagnostic 2020 criteria after applying the reclassification criteria to define probable IA. Of 188 evaluable probable cases, 41 (22%) were reclassified to 40 possible IA and 1 probable IFD. Reclassification to possible IFD occurred in 22% of hematologic malignancy (HM) patients, 29% of hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) patients, and in no lung transplant (LT) patients. Date of diagnosis was established a median (range) of 3 (1–105) days later in 15% of probable IA cases using the new criteria. Applying the new definitions to the BMT CTN 0101 trial, the power to detect the same odds ratio decreased substantially.

Conclusions

The updated IA consensus definitions may impact future trial designs, especially for antifungal prophylaxis studies.

Optimal Donor Selection for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Using Bayesian Machine Learning

PURPOSE

Donor selection practices for matched unrelated donor (MUD) hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) vary, and the impact of optimizing donor selection in a patient-specific way using modern machine learning (ML) models has not been studied.

METHODS

We trained a Bayesian ML model in 10,318 patients who underwent MUD HCT from 1999 to 2014 to provide patient- and donor-specific predictions of clinically severe (grade 3 or 4) acute graft-versus-host disease or death by day 180. The model was validated in 3,501 patients from 2015 to 2016 with archived records of potential donors at search. Donor selection optimizing predicted outcomes was implemented over either an unlimited donor pool or the donors in the search archives. Posterior mean differences in outcomes from optimal donor selection versus actual practice were summarized per patient and across the population with 95% intervals.

RESULTS

Event rates were 33% (training) and 37% (validation). Among donor features, only age affected outcomes, with the effect consistent regardless of patient features. The median (interquartile range) difference in age between the youngest donor at search and the selected donor was 6 (1-10) years, whereas the number of donors per patient younger than the selected donor was 6 (1-36). Fourteen percent of the validation data set had an approximate 5% absolute reduction in event rates from selecting the youngest donor at search versus the actual donor used, leading to an absolute population reduction of 1% (95% interval, 0 to 3).

CONCLUSION

We confirmed the singular importance of selecting the youngest available MUD, irrespective of patient features, identified potential for improved HCT outcomes by selecting a younger MUD, and demonstrated use of novel ML models transferable to optimize other complex treatment decisions in a patient-specific way.

National Marrow Donor Program-Sponsored Multicenter, Phase II Trial of HLA-Mismatched Unrelated Donor Bone Marrow Transplantation Using Post-Transplant Cyclophosphamide

PURPOSE

Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is curative for hematologic disorders, but outcomes are historically inferior when using HLA-mismatched donors. Despite unrelated donor registries listing > 38 million volunteers, 25%-80% of US patients lack an HLA-matched unrelated donor, with significant disparity across ethnic groups. We hypothesized that HCT with a mismatched unrelated donor (MMUD) using post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy), a novel strategy successful in overcoming genetic disparity using mismatched related donors, would be feasible and increase access to HCT.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a prospective phase II study of MMUD bone marrow HCT with PTCy for patients with hematologic malignancies. The primary end point was 1-year overall survival (OS), hypothesized to be 65% or better. 80 patients enrolled at 11 US transplant centers (December 2016-March 2019). Following myeloablative or reduced-intensity conditioning-based HCT, patients received PTCy on days +3, +4, with sirolimus and mycophenolate mofetil starting on day +5. We compared outcomes to Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research contemporary controls receiving PTCy.

RESULTS

Notably, 48% of patients enrolled were ethnic minorities. 39% of pairs were matched for 4-6 out of 8 HLA alleles. The primary end point was met, with 1-year OS of 76% (90% CI, 67.3 to 83.3) in the entire cohort, and 72% and 79% in the myeloablative and reduced-intensity conditioning strata, respectively. Secondary end points related to engraftment and graft-versus-host-disease were reached. Multivariate analysis comparing the study group with other mismatched HCT controls found no significant differences in OS.

CONCLUSION

Our prospective study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of HCT with an MMUD in the setting of PTCy. Remarkably, nearly half of the study participants belonged to an ethnic minority population, suggesting this approach may significantly expand access to HCT.

Serious Adverse Events in Related Donors: A Report from the Related Donor Safe Study

The incidence and risk factors for severe adverse events (SAEs) in related donors (RD) of hematopoietic cell transplants is unknown. The Related Donor Safe study is a prospective observational cohort of 1680 RDs and represents an opportunity to examine characteristics of SAEs in RDs. In this cohort, we found that SAEs were reported in a total 12 (0.71%) RDs. Of these, 5 SAEs occurred in bone marrow donors (5/404, 1.24%), and 7 (7/1276, 0.55%) were in donors of peripheral blood stem cells. All of the SAEs were considered to be related (definite, probable, or possible) to the donation process. There were no donor fatalities. Of the 12 RDs who experienced an SAE, 10 were either overweight or obese. Five of the 12 RDs had predonation medical conditions that would have resulted in either possible or definite ineligibility for donation were they being assessed as unrelated donors. These SAE data will be useful in the counseling of prospective RDs before planned donation and may be helpful in identifying donors who should be considered medically unsuitable for donation.

The Effect of Donor Graft Cryopreservation on Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Outcomes: A Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Analysis. Implications during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the increased use of cryopreserved grafts for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, information about the effect of cryopreservation on outcomes for patients receiving allogeneic donor grafts is limited. We evaluated outcomes of HCT recipients who received either fresh or cryopreserved allogeneic bone marrow (BM) or peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) grafts reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. A total of 7397 patients were included in the analysis. Recipients of cryopreserved graft were divided into 3 cohorts based on graft source: HLA-matched related PBSC donors (n = 1051), matched unrelated PBSC donors (n = 678), and matched related or unrelated BM donors (n = 154). These patients were propensity score matched with 5514 patients who received fresh allografts. The primary endpoint was engraftment. Multivariate analyses showed no significant increased risk of delayed engraftment, relapse, nonrelapse mortality (NRM), or survival with cryopreservation of BM grafts. In contrast, cryopreservation of related donor PBSC grafts was associated with decreased platelet recovery (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.78; P < .001) and an increased risk of grade II-IV (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.48; P = .002) and grade III-IV (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.84; P < .001) acute graft-versus-host disease. Cryopreservation of unrelated PBSC grafts was associated with delayed engraftment of neutrophils (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.84; P < .001) and platelets (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.66; P < .001) as well as an increased risk of NRM (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.66; P < .001) and relapse (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.58; P = .002) and decreased progression-free survival (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.55; P < .001) and overall survival (OS) (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.58; P < .001). Reasons for cryopreservation were not routinely collected; however, in a subset of unrelated donor HCT recipients, the reason was typically a change in patient condition. Products cryopreserved for patient reasons were significantly associated with inferior OS in multivariate analysis (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.96; P = .029). We conclude that cryopreservation is associated with slower engraftment of PBSC grafts, which may be associated with inferior transplantation outcomes in some patient populations. However, the small numbers in the cryopreserved BM cohort and the lack of information on the reason for cryopreservation in all patients suggests that these data should be interpreted with caution, particularly in the context of the risks associated with unexpected loss of a graft during the pandemic. Future analyses addressing outcomes when cryopreservation is universally applied are urgently required.

Impact of Conditioning Intensity and Genomics on Relapse After Allogeneic Transplantation for Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome

PURPOSE

Patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) are at risk of relapse after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. The utility of ultra-deep genomic testing to predict and the impact of conditioning intensity to prevent MDS relapse are unknown.

METHODS

Targeted error-corrected DNA sequencing was performed on preconditioning blood samples from patients with MDS (n = 48) from the Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network 0901 phase III randomized clinical trial, which compared outcomes by allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation conditioning intensity in adult patients with < 5% marrow myeloblasts and no leukemic myeloblasts in blood on morphological analysis at the time of pretransplant assessment. Clinical end points (53-month median follow-up) included transplant-related mortality (TRM), relapse, relapse-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS). Of the 48 patients examined, 14 experienced TRM, 23 are relapse-free, and 11 relapsed, of which 7 died.

RESULTS

Using a previously described set of 10 gene regions, 42% of patients (n = 20) had mutations detectable before random assignment to reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) or myeloablative conditioning (MAC). Testing positive was associated with increased rates of relapse (3-year relapse, 40% v 11%; P = .022) and decreased OS (3-year OS, 55% v 79%, P = .045). In those testing positive, relapse rates were higher (3-year relapse, 75% v 17%; P = .003) and RFS was lower (3-year RFS, 13% v 49%; P = .003) in RIC versus MAC arms. Testing additional genes, including those associated with MDS, did not improve prognostication.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that targeted DNA sequencing in patients with MDS before transplant can identify those with highest post-transplant relapse rates. In those testing positive, random assignment to MAC lowered but did not eliminate relapse risk.

A unified approach to sample size and power determination for testing parameters in generalized linear and time-to-event regression models

To ensure that a study can properly address its research aims, the sample size and power must be determined appropriately. Covariate adjustment via regression modeling permits more precise estimation of the effect of a primary variable of interest at the expense of increased complexity in sample size/power calculation. The presence of correlation between the main variable and other covariates, commonly seen in observational studies and non-randomized clinical trials, further complicates this process. Though sample size and power specification methods have been obtained to accommodate specific covariate distributions and models, most existing approaches rely on either simple approximations lacking theoretical support or complex procedures that are difficult to apply at the design stage. The current literature lacks a general, coherent theory applicable to a broader class of regression models and covariate distributions. We introduce succinct formulas for sample size and power determination with the generalized linear, Cox, and Fine-Gray models that account for correlation between a main effect and other covariates. Extensive simulations demonstrate that this method produces studies that are appropriately sized to meet their type I error rate and power specifications, particularly offering accurate sample size/power estimation in the presence of correlated covariates.

Group sequential tests for treatment effect on survival and cumulative incidence at a fixed time point

Medical research frequently involves comparing an event time of interest between treatment groups. Rather than comparing the entire survival or cumulative incidence curves, it is sometimes preferable to evaluate these probabilities at a fixed point in time. Performing a covariate adjusted analysis can improve efficiency, even in randomized clinical trials, but no currently available group sequential test for fixed point analysis provides this adjustment. This paper introduces covariate adjusted group sequential pointwise comparisons of survival and cumulative incidence probabilities. Their test statistics have an asymptotic distribution with independent increments, permitting use of common stopping boundary specification methods. These tests are demonstrated through a redesign of BMT CTN 0402, a clinical trial that evaluated a prophylactic treatment for adverse outcomes following blood and marrow transplantation. A simulation study demonstrates that these tests maintain the type I error rate and power at nominal levels under a variety of settings involving influential covariates.

Excellent outcomes following hematopoietic cell transplantation for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome: a PIDTC report

Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS) is an X-linked disease caused by mutations in the WAS gene, leading to thrombocytopenia, eczema, recurrent infections, autoimmune disease, and malignancy. Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the primary curative approach, with the goal of correcting the underlying immunodeficiency and thrombocytopenia. HCT outcomes have improved over time, particularly for patients with HLA-matched sibling and unrelated donors. We report the outcomes of 129 patients with WAS who underwent HCT at 29 Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium centers from 2005 through 2015. Median age at HCT was 1.2 years. Most patients (65%) received myeloablative busulfan-based conditioning. With a median follow-up of 4.5 years, the 5-year overall survival (OS) was 91%. Superior 5-year OS was observed in patients <5 vs ≥5 years of age at the time of HCT (94% vs 66%; overall P = .0008). OS was excellent regardless of donor type, even in cord blood recipients (90%). Conditioning intensity did not affect OS, but was associated with donor T-cell and myeloid engraftment after HCT. Specifically, patients who received fludarabine/melphalan-based reduced-intensity regimens were more likely to have donor myeloid chimerism <50% early after HCT. In addition, higher platelet counts were observed among recipients who achieved full (>95%) vs low-level (5%-49%) donor myeloid engraftment. In summary, HCT outcomes for WAS have improved since 2005, compared with prior reports. HCT at a younger age continues to be associated with superior outcomes supporting the recommendation for early HCT. High-level donor myeloid engraftment is important for platelet reconstitution after either myeloablative or busulfan-containing reduced intensity conditioning. (This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02064933.).

Impact of autologous blood transfusion after bone marrow harvest on unrelated donor's health and outcome: a CIBMTR analysis

Pre-harvest autologous blood collection from bone marrow (BM) donors is performed to meet potential post-operative transfusion needs. This study examines the impact of autologous blood transfusion on BM donor's health and safety. The study included first-time unrelated BM donors from the United States whose BM harvest was facilitated by the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP) centers between 2006 and 2017. Examination of 7024 BM donors revealed that 60% received at least one unit of autologous blood. The donors who received autologous blood were older, had lower hemoglobin pre-harvest, underwent longer duration of anesthesia, and higher volume BM harvest. Only donors who underwent high-volume BM harvest, defined as a BM harvest volume >27% of donor's blood volume, benefited from autologous transfusion. After a high-volume BM harvest, autologous blood transfusion was shown to decrease grade 2 to 4 collection-associated toxicities within 48 h of BM donation (p = 0.010) and shorten the time to donor-reported "complete" recovery from donation-associated symptoms (p < 0.001). Therefore, autologous transfusion could be avoided as support of marrow donation in the majority of unrelated BM donors and should be limited to cases where the planned BM harvest volume is expected to exceed 27% of donor's blood volume.

Impact of Conditioning Intensity of Allogeneic Transplantation for Acute Myeloid Leukemia With Genomic Evidence of Residual Disease

PURPOSE

Patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in remission remain at risk for relapse even after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT). AML measurable residual disease (MRD) status before alloHCT has been shown to be prognostic. Whether modulation of the intensity of the alloHCT conditioning regimen in patients with AML who test positive for MRD can prevent relapse and improve survival is unknown.

METHODS

Ultra-deep, error-corrected sequencing for 13 commonly mutated genes in AML was performed on preconditioning blood from patients treated in a phase III clinical trial that randomly assigned adult patients with myeloid malignancy in morphologic complete remission to myeloablative conditioning (MAC) or reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC).

RESULTS

No mutations were detected in 32% of MAC and 37% of RIC recipients; these groups had similar survival (3-year overall survival [OS], 56% v 63%; P = .96). In patients with a detectable mutation (next-generation sequencing [NGS] positive), relapse (3-year cumulative incidence, 19% v 67%; P < .001) and survival (3-year OS, 61% v 43%; P = .02) was significantly different between the MAC and RIC arms, respectively. In multivariable analysis for NGS-positive patients, adjusting for disease risk and donor group, RIC was significantly associated with increased relapse (hazard ratio [HR], 6.38; 95% CI, 3.37 to 12.10; P < .001), decreased relapse-free survival (HR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.84 to 4.69; P < .001), and decreased OS (HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.17 to 3.30; P = .01) compared with MAC. Models of AML MRD also showed benefit for MAC over RIC for those who tested positive.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that MAC rather than RIC in patients with AML with genomic evidence of MRD before alloHCT can result in improved survival.

Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Patients With Primary Immune Regulatory Disorders (PIRD): A Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) Survey

Primary Immune Regulatory Disorders (PIRD) are an expanding group of diseases caused by gene defects in several different immune pathways, such as regulatory T cell function. Patients with PIRD develop clinical manifestations associated with diminished and exaggerated immune responses. Management of these patients is complicated; oftentimes immunosuppressive therapies are insufficient, and patients may require hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) for treatment. Analysis of HCT data in PIRD patients have previously focused on a single gene defect. This study surveyed transplanted patients with a phenotypic clinical picture consistent with PIRD treated in 33 Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium centers and European centers. Our data showed that PIRD patients often had immunodeficient and autoimmune features affecting multiple organ systems. Transplantation resulted in resolution of disease manifestations in more than half of the patients with an overall 5-years survival of 67%. This study, the first to encompass disorders across the PIRD spectrum, highlights the need for further research in PIRD management.

Collection of Peripheral Blood Progenitor Cells in 1 Day Is Associated with Decreased Donor Toxicity Compared to 2 Days in Unrelated Donors

Peripheral blood stem cells (PBSCs) have been increasingly used for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation instead of bone marrow stem cells. Current National Marrow Donor Program policy recommends 5 days of daily filgrastim, followed by either 1 or 2 days of apheresis for unrelated donors, depending on collection center choice. To date, there are no published studies comparing the differences in donor experience between 1 day and 2 days of apheresis. We examined 22,348 adult unrelated donor collections in 184 centers between 2006 and 2016. Of these 22,348 donors, 20,004 (89.5%) had collection on 1 day, and the other 2344 (9.5%) had collection over 2 days. Information on why donors underwent apheresis in 1 day or 2 days was not available. Donors who underwent apheresis in 1 day were more likely to be male (67% versus 46%; P < .001), younger (age <30 years, 48% versus 36%; P < .001), and have a higher body weight (83.0 kg versus 75.9 kg; P< .001) and body mass index (BMI; >30, 30% versus 22%; P < .001). Successful collection of the requested CD34⁺ cell count was achieved on the first day in 82% of 1-day collections and in 16% of 2-day collections. Despite not administering filgrastim the evening after the first day of collection in patients who underwent 2 days of apheresis, the median concentration of CD34⁺ cells/L in the product was higher on the second day of apheresis compared with the first day (23.8 × 10⁶ CD34⁺/L on day 1 versus 28.7 × 10⁶ CD34⁺/L on day 2; P< .001). Donors who underwent collection in 1 day were less likely to experience citrate toxicity (36% versus 52%; P< .001), hospitalization (1% versus 6%; P< .001), and other side effects related to apheresis (Modified Toxicity Criteria incidence: 20% versus 26%; P < .001). Female sex, older age, collection via central lines, and higher BMI were factors associated with greater likelihood for the development of toxicity, whereas less toxicity was noted in those with higher CD34⁺ counts and more blood processed on the first day of collection. We conclude that although unrelated donors can be successfully collected in 1 day or 2 days, 1-day apheresis procedures were associated with less overall toxicity, and thus we recommend single-day collections, especially if the requested number of cells have been collected in 1 day.

Nonparametric competing risks analysis using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

Many time-to-event studies are complicated by the presence of competing risks. Such data are often analyzed using Cox models for the cause-specific hazard function or Fine and Gray models for the subdistribution hazard. In practice, regression relationships in competing risks data are often complex and may include nonlinear functions of covariates, interactions, high-dimensional parameter spaces and nonproportional cause-specific, or subdistribution, hazards. Model misspecification can lead to poor predictive performance. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach: flexible prediction modeling of competing risks data using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). We study the simulation performance in two-sample scenarios as well as a complex regression setting, and benchmark its performance against standard regression techniques as well as random survival forests. We illustrate the use of the proposed method on a recently published study of patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Molecular Correlates of Socioeconomic Status and Clinical Outcomes Following Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Leukemia

Background

Clinical outcomes among allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients are negatively affected by low socioeconomic status (SES), yet the biological mechanisms accounting for this health disparity remain to be elucidated. Among unrelated donor HCT recipients with acute myelogenous leukemia, one recent pilot study linked low SES to increased expression of a stress-related gene expression profile known as the conserved transcriptional response to adversity (CTRA) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, which involves up-regulation of pro-inflammatory genes and down-regulation of genes involved in type I interferon response and antibody synthesis.

Methods

This study examined these relationships using additional measures in a larger archival sample of 261 adults who received an unrelated donor HCT for acute myelogenous leukemia to 1) identify cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in SES-related differences in pre-transplant leukocyte transcriptome profiles, and 2) evaluate pre-transplant CTRA biology associations with clinical outcomes through multivariable analysis controlling for demographic-, disease-, and transplant-related covariates.

Results

Low SES individuals showed increases in classic monocyte activation and pro-inflammatory transcription control pathways as well as decreases in activation of nonclassic monocytes, all consistent with the CTRA biological pattern. Transplant recipients in the highest or lowest quartiles of the CTRA pro-inflammatory gene component had a more than 2-fold elevated hazard of relapse (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 4.24), P = .001; HR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.46 to 4.34, P = .001) and more than 20% reduction in leukemia-free survival (HR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.08 to 2.28, P = .012; HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.04 to 2.15, P = .03) compared with the middle quartiles.

Conclusions

These findings identify SES- and CTRA-associated myeloid- and inflammation-related transcriptome signatures in recipient pre-transplant blood samples as a potential novel predictive biomarker of HCT-related clinical outcomes.

Higher Risks of Toxicity and Incomplete Recovery in 13- to 17-Year-Old Females after Marrow Donation: RDSafe Peds Results

Although donation of bone marrow (BM) or peripheral blood stem cells (PBSCs) from children to family members undergoing allogeneic transplantation are well-established procedures, studies detailing levels of pain, symptoms, and long-term recovery are lacking. To address this lack, we prospectively enrolled 294 donors age <18 years at 25 pediatric transplantation centers in North America, assessing them predonation, peridonation, and at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year postdonation. We noted that 71% of children reported pain and 59% reported other symptoms peridonation, with resolution to 14% and 12% at 1 month postdonation. Both older age (age 13 to 17 years versus younger) and female sex were associated with higher levels of pain peridonation, with the highest rates in older females (57% with grade 2-4 pain and 17% with grade 3-4 pain). Multivariate analyses showed a 4-fold increase in risk for older females compared with males age <13 years (P <.001). At 1 year, 11% of 13- to 17-year-old females reported grade 2-4 pain, compared with 3% of males age 13 to 17 years, 0% of females age <13 years, and 1% of males age <13 years (P = .01). Males and females age 13 to 17 years failed to return to predonation pain levels at 1 year 22% and 23% of the time, respectively, compared with 3% and 10% in males and females age <13 years (P = .002). Our data show that females age 13 to 17 years are at increased risk of grade 2-4 pain at 1 year and >20% of females and males age 13 to 17 years do not return to baseline pain levels by 1 year after BM donation. Studies aimed at decreasing symptoms and improving recovery in older children are warranted.

Related peripheral blood stem cell donors experience more severe symptoms and less complete recovery at one year compared to unrelated donors

Unlike unrelated donor registries, transplant centers lack uniform approaches to related donor assessment and deferral. To test whether related donors are at increased risk for donation-related toxicities, we conducted a prospective observational trial of 11,942 related and unrelated donors aged 18-60 years. Bone marrow (BM) was collected at 37 transplant and 78 National Marrow Donor Program centers, and peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) were collected at 42 transplant and 87 unrelated donor centers in North America. Possible presence of medical comorbidities was verified prior to donation, and standardized pain and toxicity measures were assessed pre-donation, peri-donation, and one year following. Multivariate analyses showed similar experiences for BM collection in related and unrelated donors; however, related stem cell donors had increased risk of moderate [odds ratios (ORs) 1.42; P<0.001] and severe (OR 8.91; P<0.001) pain and toxicities (OR 1.84; P<0.001) with collection. Related stem cell donors were at increased risk of persistent toxicities (OR 1.56; P=0.021) and non-recovery from pain (OR 1.42; P=0.001) at one year. Related donors with more significant comorbidities were at especially high risk for grade 2-4 pain (OR 3.43; P<0.001) and non-recovery from toxicities (OR 3.71; P<0.001) at one year. Related donors with more significant comorbidities were at especially high risk for grade 2-4 pain (OR 3.43; P<0.001) and non-recovery from toxicities (OR 3.71; P<0.001) at one year. Related donors reporting grade ≥2 pain had significant decreases in Health-Related Quality of Life (HR-QoL) scores at one month and one year post donation (P=0.004). In conclusion, related PBSC donors with comorbidities are at increased risk for pain, toxicity, and non-recovery at one year after donation. Risk profiles described in this study should be used for donor education, planning studies to improve the related donor experience, and decisions regarding donor deferral. Registered at clinicaltrials.gov identifier:00948636.

Testing for center effects on survival and competing risks outcomes using pseudo-value regression

In multi-center studies, the presence of a cluster effect leads to correlation among outcomes within a center and requires different techniques to handle such correlation. Testing for a cluster effect can serve as a pre-screening step to help guide the researcher towards the appropriate analysis. With time to event data, score tests have been proposed which test for the presence of a center effect on the hazard function. However, sometimes researchers are interested in directly modeling other quantities such as survival probabilities or cumulative incidence at a fixed time. We propose a test for the presence of a center effect acting directly on the quantity of interest using pseudo-value regression, and derive the asymptotic properties of our proposed test statistic. We examine the performance of our proposed test through simulation studies in both survival and competing risks settings. The proposed test may be more powerful than tests based on the hazard function in settings where the center effect is time-varying. We illustrate the test using a multicenter registry study of survival and competing risks outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Effect of Aging and Predonation Comorbidities on the Related Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Donor Experience: Report from the Related Donor Safety Study

The development of reduced-intensity approaches for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation has resulted in growing numbers of older related donors (RDs) of peripheral blood stem cells (PBSCs). The effects of age on donation efficacy, toxicity, and long-term recovery in RDs are poorly understood. To address this we analyzed hematologic variables, pain, donation-related symptoms, and recovery in 1211 PBSC RDs aged 18 to 79 enrolled in the Related Donor Safety Study. RDs aged > 60 had a lower median CD34+ level before apheresis compared with younger RDs (age > 60, 59 × 106/L; age 41 to 60, 81 × 106/L; age 18 to 40, 121 × 106/L; P < .001). This resulted in older donors undergoing more apheresis procedures (49% versus 30% ≥ 2 collections, P < .001) and higher collection volumes (52% versus 32% > 24 L, P < .001), leading to high percentages of donors aged > 60 with postcollection thrombocytopenia <50 × 109/L (26% and 57% after 2 and 3days of collection, respectively). RDs aged 18 to 40 had a higher risk of grades 2 to 4 pain and symptoms pericollection, but donors over age 40 had more persistent pain at 1, 6, and 12 months (odds ratio [OR], 1.7; P = 0.02) and a higher rate of nonrecovery to predonation levels (OR, 1.7; P = .01). Donors reporting comorbidities increased significantly with age, and those with comorbidities that would have led to deferral by National Marrow Donor Program unrelated donor standards had an increased risk for persistent grades 2 to 4 pain (OR, 2.41; P < .001) and failure to recover to predonation baseline for other symptoms (OR, 2.34; P = .004). This information should be used in counseling RDs regarding risk and can assist in developing practice approaches aimed at improving the RD experience for high-risk individuals.

Three prophylaxis regimens (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and cyclophosphamide; tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; or tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc) versus tacrolimus and methotrexate for prevention of graft-versus-host disease with haemopoietic cell transplantation with reduced-intensity conditioning: a randomised phase 2 trial with a non-randomised contemporaneous control group (BMT CTN 1203)

BACKGROUND

Prevention of graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) without malignant relapse is the overall goal of allogeneic haemopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We aimed to evaluate regimens using either maraviroc, bortezomib, or post-transplantation cyclophosphamide for GvHD prophylaxis compared with controls receiving the combination of tacrolimus and methotrexate using a novel composite primary endpoint to identify the most promising intervention to be further tested in a phase 3 trial.

METHODS

In this prospective multicentre phase 2 trial, adult patients aged 18-75 years who received reduced-intensity conditioning HCT were randomly assigned (1:1:1) by random block sizes to tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (cyclophosphamide 50 mg/kg on days 3 and 4, followed by tacrolimus starting on day 5 and mycophenolate mofetil starting on day 5 at 15 mg/kg three times daily not to exceed 1 g from day 5 to day 35); tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib (bortezomib 1·3 mg/m2 intravenously on days 1, 4, and 7 after HCT); or tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc (maraviroc 300 mg orally twice daily from day -3 to day 30 after HCT). Methotrexate was administered as a 15 mg/m2 intravenous bolus on day 1 and 10 mg/m2 intravenous bolus on days 3, 6, and 11 after HCT; tacrolimus was given intravenously at a dose of 0·05 mg/kg twice daily (or oral equivalent) starting on day -3 (except the post-transplantation cyclophosphamide, as indicated), with a target level of 5-15 ng/mL. Tacrolimus was continued at least until day 90 and was tapered off by day 180. Each study group was compared separately to a contemporary non-randomised prospective cohort of patients (control group) who fulfilled the same eligibility criteria as the trial, but who were treated with tacrolimus and methotrexate at centres not participating in the trial. The primary endpoint (GvHD-free, relapse-free survival [GRFS]) was defined as the time from HCT to onset of grade 3-4 acute GvHD, chronic GvHD requiring systemic immunosuppression, disease relapse, or death. The study was analysed by modified intention to treat. The study is closed to accrual and this is the planned analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02208037.

FINDINGS

Between Nov 17, 2014, and May 18, 2016, 273 patients from 31 US centres were randomly assigned to the three study arms: 89 to tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; 92 to tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc; 92 to tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide; and six were excluded. Between Aug 1, 2014, and Sept 14, 2016, 224 controls received tacrolimus and methotrexate. Controls were generally well matched except for more frequent comorbidities than the intervention groups and a different distribution of types of conditioning regimens used. Compared with controls, the hazard ratio for GRFS was 0·72 (90% CI 0·54-0·94; p=0·044) for tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide, 0·98 (0·76-1·27; p=0·92) for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib, and 1·10 (0·86-1·41; p=0·49) for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc. 238 patients experienced grade 3 or 4 toxicities: 12 (13%) had grade 3 and 67 (73%) grade 4 events with tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide; ten (11%) had grade 3 and 68 (76%) had grade 4 events with tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; and 18 (20%) had grade 3 and 63 (68%) had grade 4 events with tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc. The most common toxicities were haematological (77 [84%] for tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide; 73 [82%] for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; and 78 [85%] for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc) and cardiac (43 [47%], 44 [49%], and 43 [47%], respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide was the most promising intervention, yielding the best GRFS; this regimen is thus being prospectively compared with tacrolimus and methotrexate in a phase 3 randomised trial.

FUNDING

US National Health, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Cancer Institute; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; and Millennium Pharmaceuticals.

The Concentration of Total Nucleated Cells in Harvested Bone Marrow for Transplantation Has Decreased over Time

Bone marrow (BM) is an essential source of hematopoietic stem cell grafts for many allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients, including adult patients (for specific diseases and transplantation strategies) and the majority of pediatric recipient. However, since the advent of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor-mobilized peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) grafts, there has been a significant decrease in the use of BM in HCT, thought to be due mainly to the increased logistical challenges in harvesting BM compared with PBSCs, as well as generally no significant survival advantage of BM over PBSCs. The decreased frequency of collection has the potential to impact the quality of BM harvests. In this study, we examined >15,000 BM donations collected at National Marrow Donor Program centers between 1994 and 2016 and found a significant decline in the quality of BM products, as defined by the concentration of total nucleated cells (TNCs). The mean TNC concentration in BM donations dropped from 21.8 × 10⁶ cells/mL in the earliest era (1994 to 1996) to 18.7 × 10⁶ cells/mL in the most recent era (2012 to 2016) (means ratio, .83; P < .001). This decline in BM quality was seen despite the selection of more donors perceived to be optimal (eg, younger and male). Multivariate regression analysis showed that higher-volume centers (performing >30 collections per era) had better-quality harvests with higher concentrations of TNCs collected. In conclusion, we have identified a significant decrease in the quality of BM collections over time, and lower-volume collection centers had poorer-quality harvests. In this analysis, we could not elucidate the direct cause for this finding, suggesting the need for further studies to investigate the key factors responsible and to explore the impact on transplant recipients.

SCID genotype and 6-month posttransplant CD4 count predict survival and immune recovery

The Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) performed a retrospective analysis of 662 patients with severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) who received a hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) as first-line treatment between 1982 and 2012 in 33 North American institutions. Overall survival was higher after HCT from matched-sibling donors (MSDs). Among recipients of non-MSD HCT, multivariate analysis showed that the SCID genotype strongly influenced survival and immune reconstitution. Overall survival was similar for patients with RAG, IL2RG, or JAK3 defects and was significantly better compared with patients with ADA or DCLRE1C mutations. Patients with RAG or DCLRE1C mutations had poorer immune reconstitution than other genotypes. Although survival did not correlate with the type of conditioning regimen, recipients of reduced-intensity or myeloablative conditioning had a lower incidence of treatment failure and better T- and B-cell reconstitution, but a higher risk for graft-versus-host disease, compared with those receiving no conditioning or immunosuppression only. Infection-free status and younger age at HCT were associated with improved survival. Typical SCID, leaky SCID, and Omenn syndrome had similar outcomes. Landmark analysis identified CD4+ and CD4+CD45RA+ cell counts at 6 and 12 months post-HCT as biomarkers predictive of overall survival and long-term T-cell reconstitution. Our data emphasize the need for patient-tailored treatment strategies depending upon the underlying SCID genotype. The prognostic significance of CD4+ cell counts as early as 6 months after HCT emphasizes the importance of close follow-up of immune reconstitution to identify patients who may need additional intervention to prevent poor long-term outcome.

A phase II/III randomized, multicenter trial of prednisone/sirolimus versus prednisone/ sirolimus/calcineurin inhibitor for the treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease: BMT CTN 0801

Initial therapy of chronic graft-versus-host disease is prednisone ± a calcineurin-inhibitor, but most patients respond inadequately. In a randomized, adaptive, phase II/III, multicenter trial we studied whether prednisone/sirolimus or prednisone/sirolimus/photopheresis was more effective than prednisone/sirolimus/calcineurin-inhibitor for treating chronic graft-versus-host disease in treatment-naïve or early inadequate responders. Primary endpoints of this study were proportions of subjects alive without relapse or secondary therapy with 6-month complete or partial response in phase II, or with 2-year complete response in phase III. The prednisone/sirolimus/photopheresis arm closed prematurely because of slow accrual and the remaining two-drug versus three-drug study ended in phase II due to statistical futility with 138 evaluable subjects. The two-drug and three-drug arms did not differ in rates of 6-month complete or partial response (48.6% versus 50.0%, P=0.87), or 2-year complete response (14.7% versus 15.5%, P=0.90). Serum creatinine values >1.5 times baseline were less frequent in the calcineurin-inhibitor-free arm at 2 months (1.5% versus 11.7%, P=0.025) and 6 months (7.8% versus 24.0%, P=0.016). Higher adjusted Short Form-36 Physical Component Summary and Physical Functioning scores were seen in the two-drug arm at both 2 months (P=0.02 and P=0.04, respectively) and 6 months (P=0.007 and P=0.001, respectively). Failure-free survival and overall survival rates at 2 years were similar for patients in the the two-drug and three-drug arms (48.6% versus 46.2%, P=0.78; 81.5% versus 74%, P=0.28). Based on similar long-term outcomes, prednisone/sirolimus is a therapeutic alternative to prednisone/sirolimus/calcineurin-inhibitor for chronic graft-versus-host disease, being easier to administer and better tolerated. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01106833.

Outcomes of Measurable Residual Disease in Pediatric Acute Myeloid Leukemia before and after Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant: Validation of Difference from Normal Flow Cytometry with Chimerism Studies and Wilms Tumor 1 Gene Expression

We enrolled 150 patients in a prospective multicenter study of children with acute myeloid leukemia undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) to compare the detection of measurable residual disease (MRD) by a "difference from normal" flow cytometry (ΔN) approach with assessment of Wilms tumor 1 (WT1) gene expression without access to the diagnostic specimen. Prospective analysis of the specimens using this approach showed that 23% of patients screened for HSCT had detectable residual disease by ΔN (.04% to 53%). Of those patients who proceeded to transplant as being in morphologic remission, 10 had detectable disease (.04% to 14%) by ΔN. The disease-free survival of this group was 10% (0 to 35%) compared with 55% (46% to 64%, P < .001) for those without disease. The ΔN assay was validated using the post-HSCT specimen by sorting abnormal or suspicious cells to confirm recipient or donor origin by chimerism studies. All 15 patients who had confirmation of tumor detection relapsed, whereas the 2 patients with suspicious phenotype cells lacking this confirmation did not. The phenotype of the relapse specimen was then used retrospectively to assess the pre-HSCT specimen, allowing identification of additional samples with low levels of MRD involvement that were previously undetected. Quantitative assessment of WT1 gene expression was not predictive of relapse or other outcomes in either pre- or post-transplant specimens. MRD detected by ΔN was highly specific, but did not identify most relapsing patients. The application of the assay was limited by poor quality among one-third of the specimens and lack of a diagnostic phenotype for comparison.

Repurposing existing medications as cancer therapy: design and feasibility of a randomized pilot investigating propranolol administration in patients receiving hematopoietic cell transplantation

BACKGROUND

Repurposing existing medications for antineoplastic purposes can provide a safe, cost-effective, and efficacious means to further augment available cancer care. Clinical and preclinical studies suggest a role for the ß-adrenergic antagonist (ß-blocker) propranolol in reducing rates of tumor progression in both solid and hematologic malignancies. In patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), the peri-transplant period is a time of increased activity of the ß-adrenergically-mediated stress response.

METHODS

We conducted a proof-of-concept randomized controlled pilot study assessing the feasibility of propranolol administration to patients between ages 18-75 who received an autologous HCT for multiple myeloma. Feasibility was assessed by enrollment rate, tolerability, adherence, and retention.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-four patients underwent screening; 31 (20%) enrolled in other oncology trials that precluded dual trial enrollment and 9 (6%) declined to enroll in the current trial. Eighty-nine (58%) did not meet eligibility requirements and 25 (16%) were eligible; of the remaining eligible patients, all were successfully enrolled and randomized. The most common reasons for ineligibility were current ß-blocker use, age, logistics, and medical contraindications. 92% of treatment arm patients tolerated and remained on propranolol for the study duration; 1 patient discontinued due to hypotension. Adherence rate in assessable patients (n = 10) was 94%. Study retention was 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show that it is feasible to recruit and treat multiple myeloma patients with propranolol during HCT, with the greatest obstacle being other competing oncology trials. These data support further studies examining propranolol and other potentially repurposed drugs in oncology populations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This randomized controlled trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov with the identifier NCT02420223 on April 17, 2015.

A group sequential test for treatment effect based on the Fine-Gray model

Competing risks endpoints arise when patients can fail therapy from several causes. Analyzing these outcomes allows one to assess directly the benefit of treatment on a primary cause of failure in a clinical trial setting. Regression models can be used in clinical trials to adjust for residual imbalances in patient characteristics, improving the power to detect treatment differences. But, none of the competing risks methods currently available for use in group sequential trials adjust for covariates. We propose a group sequential test for treatment effect that, because it is based on the Fine-Gray model, permits adjustment for covariates. Our derivations show that its sequence of test statistics has an asymptotic distribution with an independent increments structure, which allows standard techniques such as O'Brien-Fleming designs and error spending functions to be employed to meet type I error rate and power specifications. We demonstrate the test in a reanalysis of BMT CTN 0402, a phase III clinical trial that evaluated an experimental treatment for the prevention of adverse outcomes following blood and marrow transplant. Moreover, using a simulation study of randomized group sequential trials, we demonstrate that the proposed method preserves the type I error rate and power at their nominal levels in the presence of influential covariates.