Dogs on the move: Estimating the risk of rabies in imported dogs in the United States, 2015-2022

BACKGROUND

Dog-mediated rabies virus variant (DMRVV), a zoonotic pathogen that causes a deadly disease in animals and humans, is present in more than 100 countries worldwide but has been eliminated from the United States since 2007. In the United States, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded four instances of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries since 2015. However, it remains uncertain whether the incidence of DMRVV among imported dogs from these countries significantly surpasses that of domestically acquired variants among domestic U.S. dogs.

AIM

This evaluation aimed to estimate the number of dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries and compare the risk of rabies between imported dogs and the U.S. domestic dog population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the CDC's dog import permit system (implemented during 2021 under a temporary suspension of dog importation from DMRVV-enzootic countries) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Automated Commercial Environment system, each of which records a segment of dogs entering the U.S. from DMRVV-enzootic countries, was analysed. Additionally, we estimated the incidence rate of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries and compared it to the incidence rate within the general U.S. dog population, due to domestically acquired rabies variants, over the eight-year period (2015-2022).

RESULTS

An estimated 72,589 (range, 62,660-86,258) dogs were imported into the United States annually between 2015 and 2022 from DMRVV-enzootic countries. The estimated incidence rate of rabies was 16 times higher (range, 13.2-19.4) in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries than that estimated for domestically acquired rabies in the general U.S. dog population.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventing human exposure to dogs with DMRVV is a public health priority. The higher risk of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries supports the need for importation requirements aimed at preventing the reintroduction of DMRVV into the United States.

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

BACKGROUND

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences.

METHODS

We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy.

RESULTS

For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $7.5 billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $97 billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district-wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31-47 million) and deaths (105,000-156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($88-$103 billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the net costs per death averted ($180,000-$4.2 million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($4.6 to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

Risk factors for death and illness in dogs imported into the United States, 2010-2018

CDC estimates 1 million dogs are imported into the United States annually. With the movement of large numbers of animals into the United States the risk of disease importation, especially emerging diseases, and animal welfare issues are of concern. Dogs that arrive to the United States ill or dead are investigated by public health authorities to ensure dogs are not infected with diseases of concern (such as rabies). We identified factors associated with illness and death in imported dogs and estimated the initial investigation cost to public health authorities. Dog importation data from the CDC's Quarantine Activity Reporting System were reviewed from 2010 to 2018. The date of entry, country of origin, port of entry, transportation method and breed were extracted to examine factors associated with illness and death in dogs during international travel. Costs for public health investigations were estimated from data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Office of Personal Management. Death or illness was more likely to occur in brachycephalic breeds (aOR = 3.88, 95%CI 2.74-5.51). Transportation of dogs via cargo (aOR = 2.41, 95%CI 1.57-3.70) or as checked baggage (aOR = 5.74, 95%CI 3.65-9.03) were also associated with death or illness. On average, 19 dog illnesses or deaths were reported annually from 2010 to 2018. The estimated annual cost to public health authorities to conduct initial public health assessments ranged from $2,071 to $104,648. Current regulations do not provide adequate resources or mechanisms to monitor the rates of morbidity and mortality of imported dogs. There are growing attempts to assess animal welfare and communicable disease importation risks. However, because the responsibility for dogs' health and wellbeing is overseen by multiple agencies it is challenging to coordinate implementation and enforcement measures. A joint federal agency approach to identify interventions that reduce dog morbidity and mortality during flights while continuing to protect US borders from public health and foreign animal disease threats could be beneficial.

Cost effectiveness analysis of implementing tuberculosis screening among applicants for non-immigrant U.S. work visas

Background

While persons who receive immigrant and refugee visas are screened for active tuberculosis before admission into the United States, nonimmigrant visa applicants (NIVs) are not routinely screened and may enter the United States with infectious tuberculosis.

Objectives

We evaluated the costs and benefits of expanding pre-departure tuberculosis screening requirements to a subset of NIVs who arrive from a moderate (Mexico) or high (India) incidence tuberculosis country with temporary work visas.

Methods

We developed a decision tree model to evaluate the program costs and estimate the numbers of active tuberculosis cases that may be diagnosed in the United States in two scenarios: 1) “Screening”: screening and treatment for tuberculosis among NIVs in their home country with recommended U.S. follow-up for NIVs at elevated risk of active tuberculosis; and, 2) “No Screening” in their home country so that cases would be diagnosed passively and treatment occurs after entry into the United States. Costs were assessed from multiple perspectives, including multinational and U.S.-only perspectives.

Results

Under “Screening” versus “No Screening”, an estimated 179 active tuberculosis cases and 119 hospitalizations would be averted in the United States annually via predeparture treatment. From the U.S.-only perspective, this program would result in annual net cost savings of about $3.75 million. However, rom the multinational perspective, the screening program would cost $151,388 per U.S. case averted for Indian NIVs and $221,088 per U.S. case averted for Mexican NIVs.

Conclusion

From the U.S.-only perspective, the screening program would result in substantial cost savings in the form of reduced treatment and hospitalization costs. NIVs would incur increased pre-departure screening and treatment costs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41479-020-00078-z.

Vaccine delivery to newly arrived refugees and estimated costs in selected U.S. clinics, 2015

BACKGROUND

Newly arrived refugees are offered vaccinations during domestic medical examinations. Vaccination practices and costs for refugees have not been described with recent implementation of the overseas Vaccination Program for U.S.-bound Refugees (VPR). We describe refugee vaccination during the domestic medical examination and the estimated vaccination costs from the US government perspective in selected U.S. clinics.

METHODS

Site-specific vaccination processes and costs were collected from 16 clinics by refugee health partners in three states and one private academic institution. Vaccination costs were estimated from the U.S. Vaccines for Children Program and Medicaid reimbursement rates during fiscal year 2015.

RESULTS

All clinics reviewed overseas vaccination records before vaccinating, but all records were not transferred into state immunization systems. Average vaccination costs per refugee varied from $120 to $211 by site. The total average cost of domestic vaccination was 15% less among refugees arriving from VPR- vs. nonVPR-participating countries during a single domestic visit.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that immunization practices and costs vary between clinics, and that clinics adapted their vaccination practices to accommodate VPR doses, yielding potential cost savings.

Economic analysis of CDC's culture- and smear-based tuberculosis instructions for Filipino immigrants

SETTING

In 2007, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revised its tuberculosis (TB) technical instructions for panel physicians who administer mandatory medical examinations among US-bound immigrants. Many US-bound immigrants come from the Philippines, a high TB prevalence country.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify economic and health impacts of smear- vs. culture-based TB screening.

DESIGN

Decision tree modeling was used to compare three Filipino screening programs: 1) no screening, 2) smear-based screening, and 3) culture-based screening. The model incorporated pre-departure TB screening results from Filipino panel physicians and CDC databases with post-arrival follow-up outcomes. Costs (2013 $US) were examined from societal, immigrant, US Public Health Department and hospitalization perspectives.

RESULTS

With no screening, an annual cohort of 35 722 Filipino immigrants would include an estimated 450 TB patients with 264 hospitalizations, at a societal cost of US$9.90 million. Culture-based vs. smear-based screening would result in fewer imported cases (80.9 vs. 310.5), hospitalizations (19.7 vs. 68.1), and treatment costs (US$1.57 million vs. US$4.28 million). Societal screening costs, including US follow-up, were greater for culture-based screening (US$5.98 million) than for smear-based screening (US$3.38 million). Culture-based screening requirements increased immigrant costs by 61% (US$1.7 million), but reduced costs for the US Public Health Department (22%, US$750 000) and of hospitalization (70%, US$1 020 000).

CONCLUSION

Culture-based screening reduced imported TB and US costs among Filipino immigrants.

A comparative cost analysis of the Vaccination Program for US-bound Refugees

BACKGROUND

Vaccination Program for US-bound Refugees (VPR) currently provides one or two doses of some age-specific Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)-recommended vaccines to US-bound refugees prior to departure.

METHODS

We quantified and compared the full vaccination costs for refugees using two scenarios: (1) the baseline of no VPR and (2) the current situation with VPR. Under the first scenario, refugees would be fully vaccinated after arrival in the United States. For the second scenario, refugees would receive one or two doses of selected vaccines before departure and complete the recommended vaccination schedule after arrival in the United States. We evaluated costs for the full vaccination schedule and for the subset of vaccines provided by VPR by four age-stratified groups; all costs were reported in 2015 US dollars. We performed one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and break-even analyses to evaluate the robustness of results.

RESULTS

Vaccination costs with the VPR scenario were lower than costs of the scenario without the VPR for refugees in all examined age groups. Net cost savings per person associated with the VPR were ranged from $225.93 with estimated Refugee Medical Assistance (RMA) or Medicaid payments for domestic costs to $498.42 with estimated private sector payments. Limiting the analyses to only the vaccines included in VPR, the average costs per person were 56% less for the VPR scenario with RMA/Medicaid payments. Net cost savings with the VPR scenario were sensitive to inputs for vaccination costs, domestic vaccine coverage rates, and revaccination rates, but the VPR scenario was cost savings across a range of plausible parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

VPR is a cost-saving program that would also reduce the risk of refugees arriving while infected with a vaccine preventable disease.

Economic Analysis of the Impact of Overseas and Domestic Treatment and Screening Options for Intestinal Helminth Infection among US-Bound Refugees from Asia

BACKGROUND

Many U.S.-bound refugees travel from countries where intestinal parasites (hookworm, Trichuris trichuria, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Strongyloides stercoralis) are endemic. These infections are rare in the United States and may be underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed, leading to potentially serious consequences. This evaluation examined the costs and benefits of combinations of overseas presumptive treatment of parasitic diseases vs. domestic screening/treating vs. no program.

METHODS

An economic decision tree model terminating in Markov processes was developed to estimate the cost and health impacts of four interventions on an annual cohort of 27,700 U.S.-bound Asian refugees: 1) "No Program," 2) U.S. "Domestic Screening and Treatment," 3) "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin" presumptive treatment, and 4) "Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides". Markov transition state models were used to estimate long-term effects of parasitic infections. Health outcome measures (four parasites) included outpatient cases, hospitalizations, deaths, life years, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

RESULTS

The "No Program" option is the least expensive ($165,923 per cohort) and least effective option (145 outpatient cases, 4.0 hospitalizations, and 0.67 deaths discounted over a 60-year period for a one-year cohort). The "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin" option ($418,824) is less expensive than "Domestic Screening and Treatment" ($3,832,572) or "Overseas Albendazole and Domestic Screening for Strongyloides" ($2,182,483). According to the model outcomes, the most effective treatment option is "Overseas Albendazole and Ivermectin," which reduces outpatient cases, deaths and hospitalization by around 80% at an estimated net cost of $458,718 per death averted, or $2,219/$24,036 per QALY/life year gained relative to "No Program".

DISCUSSION

Overseas presumptive treatment for U.S.-bound refugees is a cost-effective intervention that is less expensive and at least as effective as domestic screening and treatment programs. The addition of ivermectin to albendazole reduces the prevalence of chronic strongyloidiasis and the probability of rare, but potentially fatal, disseminated strongyloidiasis.

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment

BACKGROUND

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk.

METHODS

We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates.

FINDINGS

The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates.

INTERPRETATION

The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine.

An Estimation of Private Household Costs to Receive Free Oral Cholera Vaccine in Odisha, India

BACKGROUND

Service provider costs for vaccine delivery have been well documented; however, vaccine recipients' costs have drawn less attention. This research explores the private household out-of-pocket and opportunity costs incurred to receive free oral cholera vaccine during a mass vaccination campaign in rural Odisha, India.

METHODS

Following a government-driven oral cholera mass vaccination campaign targeting population over one year of age, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate private household costs among vaccine recipients. The questionnaire captured travel costs as well as time and wage loss for self and accompanying persons. The productivity loss was estimated using three methods: self-reported, government defined minimum daily wages and gross domestic product per capita in Odisha.

FINDINGS

On average, families were located 282.7 (SD = 254.5) meters from the nearest vaccination booths. Most family members either walked or bicycled to the vaccination sites and spent on average 26.5 minutes on travel and 15.7 minutes on waiting. Depending upon the methodology, the estimated productivity loss due to potential foregone income ranged from $0.15 to $0.29 per dose of cholera vaccine received. The private household cost of receiving oral cholera vaccine constituted 24.6% to 38.0% of overall vaccine delivery costs.

INTERPRETATION

The private household costs resulting from productivity loss for receiving a free oral cholera vaccine is a substantial proportion of overall vaccine delivery cost and may influence vaccine uptake. Policy makers and program managers need to recognize the importance of private costs and consider how to balance programmatic delivery costs with private household costs to receive vaccines.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening and Treating Foreign-Born Students for Tuberculosis before Entering the United States

Introduction

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering implementation of overseas medical screening of student-visa applicants to reduce the numbers of active tuberculosis cases entering the United States.

Objective

To evaluate the costs, cases averted, and cost-effectiveness of screening for, and treating, tuberculosis in United States-bound students from countries with varying tuberculosis prevalence.

Methods

Costs and benefits were evaluated from two perspectives, combined and United States only. The combined perspective totaled overseas and United States costs and benefits from a societal perspective. The United States only perspective was a domestic measure of costs and benefits. A decision tree was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis screening and treatment from the combined perspective.

Results

From the United States only perspective, overseas screening programs of Chinese and Indian students would prevent the importation of 157 tuberculosis cases annually, and result in $2.7 million in savings. From the combined perspective, screening programs for Chinese students would cost more than $2.8 million annually and screening programs for Indian students nearly $440,000 annually. From the combined perspective, the incremental cost for each tuberculosis case averted by screening Chinese and Indian students was $22,187 and $15,063, respectively. Implementing screening programs for German students would prevent no cases in most years, and would result in increased costs both overseas and in the United States. The domestic costs would occur because public health departments would need to follow up on students identified overseas as having an elevated risk of tuberculosis.

Conclusions

Tuberculosis screening and treatment programs for students seeking long term visas to attend United States schools would reduce the number of tuberculosis cases imported. Implementing screening in high-incidence countries could save the United States millions of dollars annually; however there would be increased costs incurred overseas for students and their families.

Cost-benefit comparison of two proposed overseas programs for reducing chronic Hepatitis B infection among refugees: is screening essential?

BACKGROUND

Refugees are at an increased risk of chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection because many of their countries of origin, as well as host countries, have intermediate-to-high prevalence rates. Refugees arriving to the US are also at risk of serious sequelae from chronic HBV infection because they are not routinely screened for the virus overseas or in domestic post-arrival exams, and may live in the US for years without awareness of their infection status.

METHODS

A cohort of 26,548 refugees who arrived in Minnesota and Georgia during 2005-2010 was evaluated to determine the prevalence of chronic HBV infection. This prevalence information was then used in a cost-benefit analysis comparing two variations of a proposed overseas program to prevent or ameliorate the effects of HBV infection, titled 'Screen, then vaccinate or initiate management' (SVIM) and 'Vaccinate only' (VO). The analyses were performed in 2013. All values were converted to US 2012 dollars.

RESULTS

The estimated six year period-prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 6.8% in the overall refugee population arriving to Minnesota and Georgia and 7.1% in those ≥6 years of age. The SVIM program variation was more cost beneficial than VO. While the up-front costs of SVIM were higher than VO ($154,084 vs. $73,758; n=58,538 refugees), the SVIM proposal displayed a positive net benefit, ranging from $24 million to $130 million after only 5 years since program initiation, depending on domestic post-arrival screening rates in the VO proposal.

CONCLUSIONS

Chronic HBV infection remains an important health problem in refugees resettling to the United States. An overseas screening policy for chronic HBV infection is more cost-beneficial than a 'Vaccination only' policy. The major benefit drivers for the screening policy are earlier medical management of chronic HBV infection and averted lost societal contributions from premature death.

Mass vaccination with a new, less expensive oral cholera vaccine using public health infrastructure in India: the Odisha model

Introduction

The substantial morbidity and mortality associated with recent cholera outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe, as well as with cholera endemicity in countries throughout Asia and Africa, make a compelling case for supplementary cholera control measures in addition to existing interventions. Clinical trials conducted in Kolkata, India, have led to World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalification of Shanchol, an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) with a demonstrated 65% efficacy at 5 years post-vaccination. However, before this vaccine is widely used in endemic areas or in areas at risk of outbreaks, as recommended by the WHO, policymakers will require empirical evidence on its implementation and delivery costs in public health programs. The objective of the present report is to describe the organization, vaccine coverage, and delivery costs of mass vaccination with a new, less expensive OCV (Shanchol) using existing public health infrastructure in Odisha, India, as a model.

Methods

All healthy, non-pregnant residents aged 1 year and above residing in selected villages of the Satyabadi block (Puri district, Odisha, India) were invited to participate in a mass vaccination campaign using two doses of OCV. Prior to the campaign, a de jure census, micro-planning for vaccination and social mobilization activities were implemented. Vaccine coverage for each dose was ascertained as a percentage of the censused population. The direct vaccine delivery costs were estimated by reviewing project expenditure records and by interviewing key personnel.

Results

The mass vaccination was conducted during May and June, 2011, in two phases. In each phase, two vaccine doses were given 14 days apart. Sixty-two vaccination booths, staffed by 395 health workers/volunteers, were established in the community. For the censused population, 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 (46%) of these completed their second dose, with a drop-out rate of 25% between the two doses. Higher coverage was observed among females and among 6–17 year-olds. Vaccine cost at market price (about US$1.85/dose) was the costliest item. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose or $1.13 per fully vaccinated person.

Discussion

This is the first undertaken project to collect empirical evidence on the use of Shanchol within a mass vaccination campaign using existing public health program resources. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is feasible but requires detailed micro-planning. The vaccine and delivery cost is affordable for resource poor countries. Given that the vaccine is now WHO pre-qualified, evidence from this study should encourage oral cholera vaccine use in countries where cholera remains a public health problem.

Cholera – an acute life-threatening diarrheal illness – continues to disrupt public health in resource poor countries. The devastating outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe – to name just two of many occurrences – calls for the use of available oral cholera vaccines as an additional tool in the arsenal of cholera control measures. An oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) has been licensed in India since 2009; however, there has only been limited use of this vaccine in government public health programs. A vaccination campaign using 2 doses of Shanchol was conducted in Odisha, India, during May and June, 2011, where 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 of them completed their second dose. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose. Through our findings and experience, we discuss the organization of the cholera vaccination campaign in Odisha, the challenges met for conducting the campaign and the strategies designed to overcome those challenges, and the delivery costs incurred in the use of this vaccine, the first of its kind, in a public health setting. We believe that evidence from this study is of significant interest and use to policymakers from countries where cholera remains a public health problem.

The burden of cholera in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

In 2010, the World Health Organization released a new cholera vaccine position paper, which recommended the use of cholera vaccines in high-risk endemic areas. However, there is a paucity of data on the burden of cholera in endemic countries. This article reviewed available cholera surveillance data from Uganda and assessed the sufficiency of these data to inform country-specific strategies for cholera vaccination.

METHODS

The Uganda Ministry of Health conducts cholera surveillance to guide cholera outbreak control activities. This includes reporting the number of cases based on a standardized clinical definition plus systematic laboratory testing of stool samples from suspected cases at the outset and conclusion of outbreaks. This retrospective study analyzes available data by district and by age to estimate incidence rates. Since surveillance activities focus on more severe hospitalized cases and deaths, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate the number of non-severe cases and unrecognized deaths that may not have been captured.

RESULTS

Cholera affected all ages, but the geographic distribution of the disease was very heterogeneous in Uganda. We estimated that an average of about 11,000 cholera cases occurred in Uganda each year, which led to approximately 61-182 deaths. The majority of these cases (81%) occurred in a relatively small number of districts comprising just 24% of Uganda's total population. These districts included rural areas bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Kenya as well as the slums of Kampala city. When outbreaks occurred, the average duration was about 15 weeks with a range of 4-44 weeks.

DISCUSSION

There is a clear subdivision between high-risk and low-risk districts in Uganda. Vaccination efforts should be focused on the high-risk population. However, enhanced or sentinel surveillance activities should be undertaken to better quantify the endemic disease burden and high-risk populations prior to introducing the vaccine.

The global burden of cholera

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the global burden of cholera using population-based incidence data and reports.

METHODS

Countries with a recent history of cholera were classified as endemic or non-endemic, depending on whether they had reported cholera cases in at least three of the five most recent years. The percentages of the population in each country that lacked access to improved sanitation were used to compute the populations at risk for cholera, and incidence rates from published studies were applied to groups of countries to estimate the annual number of cholera cases in endemic countries. The estimates of cholera cases in non-endemic countries were based on the average numbers of cases reported from 2000 to 2008. Literature-based estimates of cholera case-fatality rates (CFRs) were used to compute the variance-weighted average cholera CFRs for estimating the number of cholera deaths.

FINDINGS

About 1.4 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.8 million cholera cases occur annually in such countries (uncertainty range: 1.4-4.3) and an estimated 87,000 cholera cases occur in non-endemic countries. The incidence is estimated to be greatest in children less than 5 years of age. Every year about 91,000 people (uncertainty range: 28,000 to 142,000) die of cholera in endemic countries and 2500 people die of the disease in non-endemic countries.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of cholera, as determined through a systematic review with clearly stated assumptions, is high. The findings of this study provide a contemporary basis for planning public health interventions to control cholera.

Using private demand studies to calculate socially optimal vaccine subsidies in developing countries

Although it is well known that vaccines against many infectious diseases confer positive economic externalities via indirect protection, analysts have typically ignored possible herd protection effects in policy analyses of vaccination programs. Despite a growing literature on the economic theory of vaccine externalities and several innovative mathematical modeling approaches, there have been almost no empirical applications. The first objective of the paper is to develop a transparent, accessible economic framework for assessing the private and social economic benefits of vaccination. We also describe how stated preference studies (for example, contingent valuation and choice modeling) can be useful sources of economic data for this analytic framework. We demonstrate socially optimal policies using a graphical approach, starting with a standard textbook depiction of Pigouvian subsidies applied to herd protection from vaccination programs. We also describe nonstandard depictions that highlight some counterintuitive implications of herd protection that we feel are not commonly understood in the applied policy literature. We illustrate the approach using economic and epidemiological data from two neighborhoods in Kolkata, India. We use recently published epidemiological data on the indirect effects of cholera vaccination in Matlab, Bangladesh (Ali et al., 2005) for fitting a simple mathematical model of how protection changes with vaccine coverage. We use new data on costs and private demand for cholera vaccines in Kolkata, India, and approximate the optimal Pigouvian subsidy. We find that if the optimal subsidy is unknown, selling vaccines at full marginal cost may, under some circumstances, be a preferable second-best option to providing them for free.

Private demand for cholera vaccines in rural Matlab, Bangladesh

OBJECTIVES

To estimate household willingness to pay (WTP) for cholera vaccines in a rural area of Bangladesh, which had participated in a 1985 oral cholera vaccine trial.

METHODS

A contingent valuation study was undertaken in Matlab, Bangladesh in summer 2005. All respondents (N=591) received a description of a cholera vaccine that was 50% effective for 3 years and had negligible side effects. Respondents were asked how many vaccines they would purchase for their household at randomly pre-assigned prices. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the number of vaccines demanded and to calculate average WTP.

RESULTS

On average, respondents were willing to pay about US$ 9.50 to purchase vaccines for all members of their household (i.e. US$ 1.70 per vaccine). Average WTP per person is US$ 2.40 for young children (1-4 years), US$ 1.20 for school-age children, and US$ 1.05 for adults. Median WTP estimates are significantly smaller: US$ 1.00 for young children, US$ 0.05 for schoolchildren, and US$ 0 for adults.

CONCLUSIONS

There is significant demand for cholera vaccines in Matlab at low prices. Recent herd protection research suggests that unvaccinated persons would also experience reduced incidence via indirect effects at low coverage rates associated with moderate vaccine prices.