PBTK model-based analysis of CYP3A4 induction and the toxicokinetics of the pyrrolizidine alkaloid retrorsine in man

Cytochrome P450 (CYP)3A4 induction by drugs and pesticides plays a critical role in the enhancement of pyrrolizidine alkaloid (PA) toxicity as it leads to increased formation of hepatotoxic dehydro-PA metabolites. Addressing the need for a quantitative analysis of this interaction, we developed a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model. Specifically, the model describes the impact of the well-characterized CYP3A4 inducer rifampicin on the kinetics of retrorsine, which is a prototypic PA and contaminant in herbal teas. Based on consumption data, the kinetics after daily intake of retrorsine were simulated with concomitant rifampicin treatment. Strongest impact on retrorsine kinetics (plasma AUC24 and C max reduced to 67% and 74% compared to the rifampicin-free reference) was predicted directly after withdrawal of rifampicin. At this time point, the competitive inhibitory effect of rifampicin stopped, while CYP3A4 induction was still near its maximum. Due to the impacted metabolism kinetics, the cumulative formation of intestinal retrorsine CYP3A4 metabolites increased to 254% (from 10 to 25 nmol), while the cumulative formation of hepatic CYP3A4 metabolites was not affected (57 nmol). Return to baseline PA toxicokinetics was predicted 14 days after stop of a 14-day rifampicin treatment. In conclusion, the PBTK model showed to be a promising tool to assess the dynamic interplay of enzyme induction and toxification pathways.

Proportionality principle revisited - relationship between application rates and pesticide residue concentrations in food commodities

BACKGROUND

The proportionality principle has been broadly used for over 10 years in regulatory assessments of pesticide residues. It allows extrapolation of supervised field trial data conducted at lower or higher application rates compared to the use pattern under evaluation by adjustment of measured concentrations, assuming direct proportionality between the rates applied and the resulting residues. This work revisits the principle idea by using supervised residue trials sets conducted under identical conditions but with deviating application rates. Four different statistical methods were used to investigate the relationship between application rates and residue concentrations and to draw conclusions on the statistical significance of the direct proportionality assumed.

RESULTS

Based on over 5000 individual trial results, the assumption of direct proportionality was not confirmed to be statistically significant (P > 0.05) using three models: direct comparison of application rates and residue concentrations ratios and two linear log-log regression models correlating application rate and residue concentration or only residue concentrations per se. In addition, a fourth model analysed deviations between expected concentrations following direct proportional adjustment and measured residue values from corresponding field trials. In 56% of all cases, the deviation was larger than ±25%, which represents the tolerance usually accepted for the selection of supervised field trials in regulatory assessments.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the assumption of direct proportionality between application rates and resulting residue concentrations of pesticides was not statistically significant. Although the proportionality approach is highly pragmatic in regulatory practice, its use should be considered carefully on a case-by-case basis. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

PBTK modeling of the pyrrolizidine alkaloid retrorsine to predict liver toxicity in mouse and rat

Retrorsine is a hepatotoxic pyrrolizidine alkaloid (PA) found in herbal supplements and medicines, food and livestock feed. Dose-response studies enabling the derivation of a point of departure including a benchmark dose for risk assessment of retrorsine in humans and animals are not available. Addressing this need, a physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model of retrorsine was developed for mouse and rat. Comprehensive characterization of retrorsine toxicokinetics revealed: both the fraction absorbed from the intestine (78%) and the fraction unbound in plasma (60%) are high, hepatic membrane permeation is dominated by active uptake and not by passive diffusion, liver metabolic clearance is 4-fold higher in rat compared to mouse and renal excretion contributes to 20% of the total clearance. The PBTK model was calibrated with kinetic data from available mouse and rat studies using maximum likelihood estimation. PBTK model evaluation showed convincing goodness-of-fit for hepatic retrorsine and retrorsine-derived DNA adducts. Furthermore, the developed model allowed to translate in vitro liver toxicity data of retrorsine to in vivo dose-response data. Resulting benchmark dose confidence intervals (mg/kg bodyweight) are 24.1-88.5 in mice and 79.9-104 in rats for acute liver toxicity after oral retrorsine intake. As the PBTK model was built to enable extrapolation to different species and other PA congeners, this integrative framework constitutes a flexible tool to address gaps in the risk assessment of PA.

Phylogeny and spatio-temporal dynamics of hepatitis E virus infections in wild boar and deer from six areas of Germany during 2013-2017

The hepatitis E virus (HEV) can cause acute and chronic hepatitis in humans. Infections with the zoonotic HEV genotype 3, which can be transmitted from infected wild boar and deer to humans, are increasingly detected in Europe. To investigate the spatio-temporal HEV infection dynamics in wild animal populations, a study involving 3572 samples of wild boar and three deer species from six different geographic areas in Germany over a 4-year period was conducted. The HEV-specific antibody detection rates increased between 2013/14 and 2016/17 in wild boar from 9.5% to 22.8%, and decreased in deer from 1.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, HEV-RNA detection rates increased in wild boar from 2.8% to 13.3% and in deer from 0.7% to 4.2%. Marked differences were recorded between the investigated areas, with constantly high detection rates in one area and new HEV introductions followed by increasing detection rates in others. Molecular typing identified HEV subtypes 3c, 3f, 3i and a putative new subtype related to Italian wild boar strains. In areas, where sufficient numbers of positive samples were available for further analysis, a specific subtype dominated over the whole observation period. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the close relationship between strains from the same area and identified closely related human strains from Germany. The results suggest that the HEV infection dynamics in wild animals is dependent on the particular geographical area where area-specific dominant strains circulate over a long period. The virus can spread from wild boar, which represent the main wild animal reservoir, to deer, and generally from wild animals to humans. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Community structure of domesticated pigs in livestock facilities

The social structure of animal groups is considered to have an impact on their health and welfare. This could also be true for animals under commercial conditions, but research in this area has been limited. Pigs for example are known to be very social animals, but information about their grouping behavior is mostly derived from wild boars and a limited number of studies in seminatural and commercial conditions. Specifically under commercial conditions it is still unclear to what extent pig herds organize themselves in subgroups and how such group patterns emerge. To answer these questions, we tracked the positions of about 200 sows inside a barn during ongoing production over a period of five weeks and used these data to construct and analyze the animal contact networks. Our analysis showed a very high contact density and only little variation in the number of other animals that a specific animal is in contact with. Nevertheless, in each week we consistently detected three subgroups inside the barn, which also showed a clear spatial separation. Our results show that even in the high density environment of a commercial pig farm, the behavior of pigs to form differentiated groups is consistent with their behavior under seminatural conditions. Furthermore, our findings also imply that the barn layout could play an important role in the formation of the grouping pattern. These insights could be used to monitor and understand the spread of infectious diseases inside the barn better. In addition, our insights could potentially be used to improve the welfare of pigs.

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist methods for prevalence estimation under misclassification

BACKGROUND

Various methods exist for statistical inference about a prevalence that consider misclassifications due to an imperfect diagnostic test. However, traditional methods are known to suffer from truncation of the prevalence estimate and the confidence intervals constructed around the point estimate, as well as from under-performance of the confidence intervals' coverage.

METHODS

In this study, we used simulated data sets to validate a Bayesian prevalence estimation method and compare its performance to frequentist methods, i.e. the Rogan-Gladen estimate for prevalence, RGE, in combination with several methods of confidence interval construction. Our performance measures are (i) error distribution of the point estimate against the simulated true prevalence and (ii) coverage and length of the confidence interval, or credible interval in the case of the Bayesian method.

RESULTS

Across all data sets, the Bayesian point estimate and the RGE produced similar error distributions with slight advantages of the former over the latter. In addition, the Bayesian estimate did not suffer from the RGE's truncation problem at zero or unity. With respect to coverage performance of the confidence and credible intervals, all of the traditional frequentist methods exhibited strong under-coverage, whereas the Bayesian credible interval as well as a newly developed frequentist method by Lang and Reiczigel performed as desired, with the Bayesian method having a very slight advantage in terms of interval length.

CONCLUSION

The Bayesian prevalence estimation method should be prefered over traditional frequentist methods. An acceptable alternative is to combine the Rogan-Gladen point estimate with the Lang-Reiczigel confidence interval.

Comparison of lead levels in edible parts of red deer hunted with lead or non-lead ammunition

Game meat may contain elevated concentrations of lead especially if lead-containing ammunition is used for hunting. Then a health risk is possible for consumer groups with high game meat intake. The lead concentrations in three edible parts (marketable meat from the area close to the wound channel, saddle and haunch) of meat from red deer (Cervus elaphus) between animals hunted either with lead or non‑lead ammunition were compared. Furthermore, lead levels in game meat of lead-shot red deer were compared with those of lead-shot roe deer and lead-shot wild boar. Ninety red deer were shot and killed in the context of this study (64 with lead and 26 with non‑lead ammunition). Since the lead concentration for a number of the samples was below the limit of detection or the limit of quantification, statistical methods for left-censored data were applied. The median concentrations of lead in game meat did not differ significantly between lead shot and non‑lead shot animals. However, when we analyzed the more elevated lead concentrations, they were significantly higher in edible parts of animals shot with lead ammunition than non-lead ammunition. The highest concentrations were found in samples from edible meat from the area close to the wound channel (max 3442 mg Pb/kg), followed by the saddle (max 1.14 mg Pb/kg) and with the lowest levels in the haunch (max 0.09 mg Pb/kg). A comparison of game species revealed that the lead concentration in haunch and saddle of lead shot red deer was higher than in the corresponding samples of lead shot roe deer. Our results have shown that by the use of non-lead ammunition, a significant reduction of the lead concentration especially in edible parts near the wound channel is possible.

Disease burden of methylmercury in the German birth cohort 2014

This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of methylmercury for children born in Germany in the year 2014. Humans are mainly exposed to methylmercury when they eat fish or seafood. Prenatal methylmercury exposure is associated with IQ loss. To quantify this disease burden, we used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the incidence of mild and severe mental retardation in children born to mothers who consume fish based on empirical data. Subsequently, we calculated the disease burden with the disability-adjusted life years (DALY)-method. DALYs combine mortality and morbidity in one measure and quantify the gap between an ideal situation, where the entire population experiences the standard life expectancy without disease and disability, and the actual situation. Thus, one DALY corresponds to the loss of one year of life in good health. The methylmercury-induced burden of disease for the German birth cohort 2014 was an average of 14,186 DALY (95% CI 12,915-15,440 DALY). A large majority of the DALYs was attributed to morbidity as compared to mortality. Of the total disease burden, 98% were attributed to mild mental retardation, which only leads to morbidity. The remaining disease burden was a result of severe mental retardation with equal proportions of premature death and morbidity.

[Systematic Review of the Burden of Campylobacter-associated Disease]

Bacteria of the genus Campylobacter spp. are one of the most common causes of gastroenteritis and can lead to serious sequelae. Several studies have estimated the disease burden of Campylobacter spp. with the quantitative metric of disability-adjusted life years (DALY). The aim of this systematic review is to give an overview of the information available about different countries and periods for which DALYs were calculated and how the different results are comparable. One of the most important transmission pathways for Campylobacter spp. is food. Therefore, special attention was given to studies that only estimated the foodborne disease burden of Campylobacter bacteria. With a systematic search for the period 1/1996-6/2016, one worldwide and 21 country-specific publications of the WHO were identified. Because of the different methods and the quality of the different data sets, the estimated results of all Campylobacter health outcomes of the country-specific studies vary from 0.4 DALYs per 100000 people in France to 109 DALY per population in Poland. The calculation of the attributable foodborne disease burden was based on the estimations of the incidences of all Campylobacter health outcomes with the associated uncertainty for each result. So the estimations of the foodborne disease burden show a large range from 0.5 DALYs per 100000 people in Greek to 21.2 DALYs per 100000 people in New Zealand. This span can only be partially explained by the country-specific variability in the food production, the consumption behavior and the incidence of Campylobacter bacteria.

Copper and zinc content in wild game shot with lead or non-lead ammunition - implications for consumer health protection

The aim of this study was to examine the contamination of game meat with copper and zinc and establish whether the use of alternative (non-lead) ammunition can lead to higher or unsafe levels of copper and zinc in the meat of roe deer, wild boar and red deer. The research project “Safety of game meat obtained through hunting” (LEMISI) was conducted in Germany with the purpose of examining the entry of lead as well as copper and zinc into the meat of hunted game when using either lead or non-lead ammunition.

The outcome of this study shows that the usage of both lead-based ammunition and alternative non-lead ammunition results in the entry of copper and zinc into the edible parts of the game. Using non-lead ammunition does not entail dangerously elevated levels of copper and zinc, so replacing lead ammunition with alternative ammunition does not introduce a further health problem with regard to these metals. The levels of copper and zinc in game meat found in this study are in the range found in previous studies of game. The content of copper and zinc in game meat is also comparable to those regularly detected in meat and its products from livestock (pig, cattle, sheep) for which the mean human consumption rate is much higher. From the viewpoint of consumer health protection, the use of non-lead ammunition does not pose an additional hazard through copper and zinc contamination. A health risk due to the presence of copper and zinc in game meat at typical levels of consumer exposure is unlikely for both types of ammunition.

Hunting of roe deer and wild boar in Germany: Is non-lead ammunition suitable for hunting?

Background

Non-lead hunting ammunition is an alternative to bullets that contain lead. The use of lead ammunition can result in severe contamination of game meat, thus posing a health risk to consumers. With any kind of ammunition for hunting, the terminal effectiveness of bullets is an animal welfare issue. Doubts about the effectiveness of non-lead bullets for a humane kill of game animals in hunting have been discussed. The length of the escape distance after the shot has been used previously as an indicator for bullet performance.

Objective

The object of this study was to determine how the bullet material (lead or non-lead) influences the observed escape distances.

Methods

1,234 records of the shooting of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and 825 records of the shooting of wild boar (Sus scrofa) were evaluated. As the bullet material cannot be regarded as the sole cause of variability of escape distances, interactions of other potential influencing variables like shot placement, shooting distance, were analyzed using conditional regression trees and two-part hurdle models.

Results

The length of the escape distance is not influenced by the use of lead or non-lead ammunition with either roe deer or wild boar. With roe deer, the length of the escape distance is influenced significantly by the shot placement and the type of hunting. Increasing shooting distances increased the length of the escape distance. With wild boar, shot placement and the age of the animals were found to be a significant influencing factor on the length of the escape distance.

Conclusions

The length of the escape distance can be used as an indicator for adequate bullet effectiveness for humane killings of game animals in hunting.Non-lead bullets already exist which have an equally reliable killing effect as lead bullets.

Estimation of the sensitivity and specificity of a Leptospira spp. in-house ELISA through Bayesian modelling

The microscopic agglutination test (MAT) is still considered the gold standard for the diagnosis of leptospirosis, although studies have shown that the test is an imperfect gold standard for clinical samples and unsuitable for epidemiological studies. Here, test characteristics of an in-house ELISA were identified for both subclinical and clinical populations by Bayesian latent class models. A conditional dependence model for two diagnostic tests and two populations was adapted to analyse a clinical and a subclinical scenario, respectively. These Bayesian models were used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the in-house ELISA and the MAT as well as the prevalences. The Bayesian estimates of the in-house ELISA were: clinical sensitivity=83.0%, clinical specificity=98.5%, subclinical sensitivity=85.7% and subclinical specificity=99.1%. In contrast, the estimates of the MAT were: clinical sensitivity=65.6%, clinical specificity=97.7%, subclinical sensitivity 54.9% and subclinical specificity=97.3%. The results show the suitability of the in-house ELISA for both clinical investigations and epidemiological studies in mildly endemic areas.

Toxicokinetics of seven perfluoroalkyl sulfonic and carboxylic acids in pigs fed a contaminated diet

The transfer of a mixture of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) from contaminated feed into the edible tissues of 24 fattening pigs was investigated. Four perfluoroalkyl sulfonic (PFSAs) and three perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) were quantifiable in feed, plasma, edible tissues, and urine. As percentages of unexcreted PFAA, the substances accumulated in plasma (up to 51%), fat, and muscle tissues (collectively, meat 40-49%), liver (under 7%), and kidney (under 2%) for most substances. An exception was perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), with lower affinity for plasma (23%) and higher for liver (35%). A toxicokinetic model is developed to quantify the absorption, distribution, and excretion of PFAAs and to calculate elimination half-lives. Perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA), a PFCA, had the shortest half-life at 4.1 days. PFSAs are eliminated more slowly (e.g., half-life of 634 days for PFOS). PFAAs in pigs exhibit longer elimination half-lives than in most organisms reported in the literature, but still shorter than in humans.

A probabilistic model for the carry-over of PCDD/Fs from feed to growing pigs

When food producing animals are contaminated with PCDD/F congeners, information on the contaminant's concentration in the bodies of the animals at time of slaughter is needed for risk management purposes. We have developed a mathematical model for the kinetics of PCDD/Fs in growing pigs in case of contaminated feed fed for a limited duration of time. This model allows the prediction of concentrations in body fat. It considers absorption fractions of PCDD/Fs, clearance by metabolism, dilution by growth and excretion through fecal fat. The model parameters were calibrated by fitting the model to experimental data. On the basis of this toxicokinetic model a probabilistic model has been constructed. The probabilistic model handles the parameters with appropriate probability distributions and Monte-Carlo simulation technique, providing for realistic situations with many animals and a range of contaminations and feeding intervals. We applied the new model to describe the German dioxin incident of winter 2010/2011 and discuss its viability as decision tool. The approach demonstrated here is a showcase how a risk assessment in the case of contaminated feeding can be performed.

Graphical models and Bayesian domains in risk modelling: application in microbiological risk assessment

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) models are used to reflect knowledge about complex real-world scenarios for the propagation of microbiological hazards along the feed and food chain. The aim is to provide insight into interdependencies among model parameters, typically with an interest to characterise the effect of risk mitigation measures. A particular requirement is to achieve clarity about the reliability of conclusions from the model in the presence of uncertainty. To this end, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation modelling has become a standard in so-called probabilistic risk assessment. In this paper, we elaborate on the application of Bayesian computational statistics in the context of QMRA. It is useful to explore the analogy between MC modelling and Bayesian inference (BI). This pertains in particular to the procedures for deriving prior distributions for model parameters. We illustrate using a simple example that the inability to cope with feedback among model parameters is a major limitation of MC modelling. However, BI models can be easily integrated into MC modelling to overcome this limitation. We refer a BI submodel integrated into a MC model to as a "Bayes domain". We also demonstrate that an entire QMRA model can be formulated as Bayesian graphical model (BGM) and discuss the advantages of this approach. Finally, we show example graphs of MC, BI and BGM models, highlighting the similarities among the three approaches.

Trace-back and trace-forward tools developed ad hoc and used during the STEC O104:H4 outbreak 2011 in Germany and generic concepts for future outbreak situations

The Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak in Germany in 2011 required the development of appropriate tools in real-time for tracing suspicious foods along the supply chain, namely salad ingredients, sprouts, and seeds. Food commodities consumed at locations identified as most probable site of infection (outbreak clusters) were traced back in order to identify connections between different disease clusters via the supply chain of the foods. A newly developed relational database with integrated consistency and plausibility checks was used to collate these data for further analysis. Connections between suppliers, distributors, and producers were visualized in network graphs and geographic projections. Finally, this trace-back and trace-forward analysis led to the identification of sprouts produced by a horticultural farm in Lower Saxony as vehicle for the pathogen, and a specific lot of fenugreek seeds imported from Egypt as the most likely source of contamination. Network graphs have proven to be a powerful tool for summarizing and communicating complex trade relationships to various stake holders. The present article gives a detailed description of the newly developed tracing tools and recommendations for necessary requirements and improvements for future foodborne outbreak investigations.

[Salmonella in laying hens: what does voluntary monitoring tell us?]

Based on voluntary examinations for Salmonella in laying hen flocks in Germany, it was investigated whether a statistically significant trend in Salmonella prevalence could be observed in the period 2003 to 2007. Furthermore, it was studied whether the implementation of Regulation (EC) No 1168/2006 led to an improvement of the collected data and a change in the Salmonella prevalence in 2008. To compensate for differences in data availability, submitted data were weighted by regional laying hen population size and compared with results from the non-weighted data. Between the years 2003 to 2007 a significant reduction of Salmonella prevalence could be observed. Weighting of data by population size improved trend recognition for routine sampling results. This may point towards a real reduction of Salmonella prevalence in German layer flocks in the years till 2007. The obligatory implementation of the control programme in 2008 led to a remarkable increase of examinations performed and an increased frequency of detection of Salmonella in flocks of laying hens. This tendency was statistically highly significant (p < 0,0042) for the overall dataset as well as for data from targeted sampling and other sampling. Again, after weighting data from routine sampling, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) increase of Salmonella prevalence could be shown. The two dominant serovars in human salmonellosis, namely S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium were most frequently observed in German laying hen flocks with S. Enteritidis being much more recurrent than S. Typhimurium. It is obvious from the available data that a good data quality is the prerequisite for a realistic evaluation of the Salmonella situation and that weighting may compensate for some of the bias inherent in the data reporting system.

[Surveillance systems for status monitoring of Trichinella-free declared pig farms: concepts and their confidence for freedom from disease]

Trichinella surveillance data in Germany show for indoor housed pigs hardly any cases. Nevertheless, obligatory testing is in place for each slaughtered pig. According to EU legislation systematic Trichinella testing can be replaced by a risk-based surveillance system if the risk of Trichinella infection in fattening pigs is negligible. The probability to detect a positive herd (herd sensitivity) was taken as an indicator for the effectiveness of the surveillance. Four different diagnostic methods: a) digestion method, b) E/S-ELISA, c) Western Blot, and d) ELISA sequentially combined with Western Blot, were compared regarding herd sensitivity and specificity for different herd and sample sizes and different levels of prevalence. In a further step three potential surveillance systems were compared with regard to their suitability for herd classification: (i) classical Trichinella examination by artificial digestion method, (ii) ELISA screening followed by classical Trichinella examination and (iii) ELISA screening followed by Western Blot. Results show that: 1) testing by the artificial digestion method (i) provides only low sensitivity of detection for positive herds at present levels of prevalence despite perfect specificity. 2) The ELISA alone provides a high sensitivity of detection even at low sample sizes but at the cost of a very low herd specificity, converging towards zero at increasing sample sizes. In surveillance system (ii), a large number of farms would still need to be tested with the classical digestion method, as they would be misclassified as positive by the ELISA. 3) The Western Blot as well as ELISA screening followed by Western Blot offer a high probability of correct herd classification. The latter diagnostic system appears to be the most suitable for a risk based surveillance (iii) and provides--despite reduced sample sizes--a higher probability for a correct herd classification than the traditional Trichinella examination.

Risk assessment in fish welfare, applications and limitations

The Treaty of Amsterdam, in force since 1 May 1999, has established new ground rules for the actions of the European Union (EU) on animal welfare. It recognizes that animals are sentient beings and obliges the European Institutions to pay full regard to the welfare requirements of animals when formulating and implementing Community legislation. In order to properly address welfare issues, these need to be assessed in a scientific and transparent way. The principles of risk assessment in terms of transparency and use of available scientific data are probably well suited for this area. The application of risk assessment for terrestrial and aquatic animal welfare is a relatively new area. This paper describes the work developed in the context of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) opinions on the application of a risk assessment methodology to fish welfare. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process that seeks to determine the likelihood and consequences of an adverse event, which is referred to as a hazard. It generally consists of the following steps: (i) hazard identification, (ii) hazard characterisation, (iii) exposure assessment and (iv) risk characterisation. Different approaches can be used for risk assessments, such as qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative approaches. These are discussed in the context of fish welfare, using examples from assessments done to aquaculture husbandry systems and stunning/killing methods for farmed fish. A critical review of the applications and limitations of the risk methodology in fish welfare is given. There is a need to develop appropriate indicators of fish welfare. Yet, risk assessment methodology provides a transparent approach to identify significant hazards and support recommendations for improved welfare.

Expert opinion based modelling of the risk of human infection with H5N1 through the consumption of poultry meat in Germany

According to current scientific opinion the risk of human infection with H5N1 via preparation and consumption of poultry meat is negligible.This opinion has not yet been challenged by a formal risk assessment, due to the lack of empirical data. We have developed a scenario pathway model as a conceptual framework for a formal assessment of the H5N1 risk to humans through consumption of poultry meat and parameterise the model using information derived from expert opinions. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the notion of an overall negligible risk via the oral infection route is consistent with ad hoc data and expert opinions on the relevant parameters of the model. The model is mainly based on expert opinion. A stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted which took into consideration (amongst others) the exposure and infection of chicken (broiler and layer), turkeys, ducks and geese, the probabilities of detection prior to slaughter, virus survival and contamination during slaughter, as well as during the cutting and preparation of meat in commercial plants and in private households, respectively. The empirical consumption pattern for poultry meat in Germany was taken into account in the simulation. The results show that the risk for the individual consumer is practically zero whereas up to 23 cases per year in Germany might occur if the upper (more pessimistic) ranges of the expert opinions apply. The finding of a low but non-negligible risk to the population is discussed in relation to the epidemiological information available from recent outbreaks in South East Asia.