Who is "anti-science"?

Objectives

"Anti-science" accusations are common in medicine and public health, sometimes to discredit scientists who hold opposing views. However, there is no such thing as "one science". Epistemology recognizes that any "science" is sociologically embedded, and therefore contextual and intersubjective. In this paper, we reflect on how "science" needs to adopt various perspectives to give a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of a phenomenon.

Study design

Opinion paper.

Methods

Based on a targeted literature survey, we first clarify the known limits of traditional scientific methods and then reflect on how the scientific reporting about Covid-19 mRNA vaccines has evolved.

Results

The first reports of the Covid-19 mRNA vaccines randomised controlled trial results showed impressive efficacy. Nevertheless, an abundant literature has since depicted a far more nuanced picture of the effectiveness and safety of those vaccines over the medium-term. We organise them around five themes: (i) differentiating between relative and absolute reduction; (ii) taking account of time in reporting effectiveness; (iii) taking account of all outcomes, including adverse effects; (iv) stratifying effectiveness and considering other decision criteria (efficiency, equity, and acceptance); (v) changing the outcome of concern and assessing vaccines' effectiveness on mortality.

Conclusions

Science offers a wide range of perspectives on a given study object. Only the process of deliberation amongst scientists and other stakeholders can result in accepted new knowledge useful to support decision-making. Unfortunately, by trying to reduce "science" to simple messages set in stone, scientists can become the worse enemies of science.

Modelling biofilm development: The importance of considering the link between EPS distribution, detachment mechanisms and physical properties

In industry, treatments against biofilms need to be optimized and, in the wastewater treatment field, biofilm composition needs to be controlled. Therefore, describing the biochemical and physical structures of biofilms is now required to better understand the influence of operating parameters and treatment on biofilms. The present study aims to investigate how growth conditions influence EPS composition, biofilm physical properties and volume detachment using a 1D biofilm model. Two types of EPS are considered in the present model, proteins and polysaccharides. The main hypotheses are that: (i) the production of polysaccharides occurs mainly under strong nutrient limitation(s) while the production of proteins is coupled to both the substrate uptake rate and the lysis process; (ii) the local biofilm porosity depends on the local biofilm composition. Both volume and surface detachment occur in biofilms and volume detachment extent depends on the biofilm local cohesion and thus on the local composition of biofilms for a given shear stress. The model is based on experimental trends and aims to represent these observations on the basis of biochemical and physical processes. Four case studies covering a wide range of contrasting growth conditions such as different COD/N ratios, applied SOLR and shear stresses are investigated. The model predicts how the biochemical and physical biofilm structures change as a result of contrasting growth conditions. More precisely simulation results are in good agreement with the main experimental observations reported in the literature, such as: (i) a strong nitrogen limitation of growth induces an important accumulation of polysaccharides leading to a more porous and homogenous biofilm, (ii) a high applied surface organic loading load allows to obtain a high biofilm thickness, (iii) a strong shear stress applied during the biofilm growth leads to a reduction of the biofilm thickness and to a consolidation of the biofilm structure. Overall, this model represents a relevant decision tool for the selection of appropriate enzymatic treatments in the context of negative biofilm control. From our results, it appears that protease based treatments should be more appropriate for biofilms developed under low COD/N ratios (about 20 gCOD/gN) whereas both glucosidases and proteases based treatments should be more appropriate for biofilms developed under high COD/N ratio (about 70 gCOD/gN). In addition, the model could be useful for other applications such as resource recovery in biofilms or granules, and help to better understand biological membrane fouling.

COVAX - Time to reconsider the strategy and its target

COVAX, the international initiative supporting COVID-19 vaccination campaigns globally, is budgeted to be the costliest public health initiative in low- and middle-income countries, with over 16 billion US dollars already committed. While some claim that the target of vaccinating 70% of people worldwide is justified on equity grounds, we argue that this rationale is wrong for two reasons. First, mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns do not meet standard public health requirements for clear expected benefit, based on costs, disease burden and intervention effectiveness. Second, it constitutes a diversion of resources from more cost-effective and impactful public health programmes, thus reducing health equity. We conclude that the COVAX initiative warrants urgent review.

Clinical utility of repeat fetal echocardiography in congenital heart disease

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the utility of repeat fetal echocardiography (FE) following a diagnosis of structural congenital heart disease (CHD) on the initial FE. We evaluated how often changes in management and counseling occurred based on subsequent FE findings and sought to determine which types of CHD were more likely to have changes in management and/or counseling based on repeat FE.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of all patients who presented to our center between January 2012 and January 2019 and who had more than one FE performed for structural CHD. We reviewed consultation notes to determine whether management or counseling had changed based on FE findings at follow-up visits. Management variables included a change in location or mode of delivery, plan for atrial septostomy, initiation of prostaglandin infusion, umbilical line placement and planned admission location (nursery vs neonatal intensive care unit). We defined a counseling change as any of the above changes in management as well as any meaningful refinements in the cardiac diagnosis that led to a change in the overall prognosis or future management. Initial diagnoses were grouped into anatomically/hemodynamically relevant subgroups. Fisher's exact test was used to assess the relationship between the initial diagnosis and changes in management. Post-hoc pairwise comparisons were performed using Dunnett's test.

RESULTS

Between January 2012 and January 2019, 267 patients underwent 534 follow-up FE assessments performed for structural CHD. Management change based on repeat FE occurred in 41/267 (15.4%) cases. A change in management was associated with the diagnosis made at the initial visit (P < 0.001). The proportion of cases with a management change was highest among those with an initial diagnosis of pulmonary valve abnormality/non-critical pulmonary stenosis (4/11 (36.4%)), followed by balanced atrioventricular canal (AVC) defect (5/17 (29.4%)) and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction/aortic valve abnormality or coarctation/interrupted aortic arch (19/68 (27.9%)). No management change occurred in fetuses diagnosed with isolated ventricular septal defect (VSD), truncus arteriosus, pulmonary vein anomaly or isolated arch sidedness/branching abnormality. Compared to those with a VSD, management was significantly more likely to be changed in fetuses with a balanced AVC defect (P = 0.025) and left heart lesions (P = 0.002). Right heart lesions showed a trend towards an increased incidence of management change (P = 0.05). A counseling change based on repeat FE occurred in 108/267 (40.4%) cases. The proportion of cases with a counseling change was highest among those with an initial diagnosis of pulmonary valve abnormality/non-critical pulmonary stenosis (8/11 (72.7%)) and hypoplastic left heart syndrome/critical aortic stenosis (5/9 (55.6%)).

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical utility of follow-up FE is associated with the type of CHD diagnosed. Follow-up FE led to changes in management in several types of CHD, most commonly in cases with an initial diagnosis of right and left outflow obstructive lesions and balanced AVC defect. When developing programmatic protocols for the frequency of FE assessments, the type of CHD should be a major determinant, but additional studies are required to reach a consensus on how often serial FE should be performed for each type of CHD. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Adaptive Mechanisms of Health Zones to Chronic Traumatic Events in Eastern DRC: A Multiple Case Study

BACKGROUND

The Eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been affected by armed conflict for several years. Despite the growing interest in the impact of these conflicts on health service utilisation, few studies have addressed the coping mechanisms of the health system. The purpose of this study is to describe the traumatic events and coping mechanisms used by the health zones (HZs) in conflict settings to maintain good performance.

METHODS

This multiple case study took place from July to October 2022 in four HZs in the South Kivu Province of DRC. HZs were classified into "cases" according to their conflict profile: accessible and stable (Case 1), accessible but remote (Case 2), unstable (Case 3), and intermediate (Case 4). Eight performance indicators and the amount of funding provided to the HZs by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were recorded. A graph was created to compare their evolution from 2013 to 2018. A thematic analysis of qualitative data from individual interviews with selected health workers was conducted.

RESULTS

Both battle-related events (war and its effects) and non-battle-related events (epidemics, disasters, strikes) were recorded according to the case conflict-profile. Although the cases (3 and 4) most affected by armed conflicts occasionally performed better than the stable ones (1 and 2), their operational action plan was poorly carried out. The coping mechanisms developed in cases 3 and 4 were the deployment of military nurses in preventive and supervisory activities, the solicitations of subsidies from NGOs, the relocation of health care facilities and the implementation of negotiation strategies with the belligerents.

CONCLUSION

Armed conflict results in traumatic events that disrupt the execution of the operational action plan of HZs. The HZs' management team expertise, its strong leadership, and substantial financial support would enable this system to develop reliable and sustainable adaptive mechanisms.

Mandatory membership of community-based mutual health insurance in Senegal: A national survey

With the low adherence to voluntary mutual health insurance, Senegal's policymakers have sought to understand the feasibility of compulsory health insurance membership. This study aims to measure the acceptability of mandatory membership in community-based mutual health insurance (CBHI) and to understand its possible administrative modalities. The study consists of a national survey among a representative population sample selected by marginal quotas. The survey was conducted in 2022 over the phone, with a random composition method involving 914 people. The questionnaire measured the socio-economic characteristics of households, their level of acceptability concerning voluntary and compulsory membership, and their level of confidence in CBHIs and the health system. Respondents preferred voluntary (86%) over mandatory (70%) membership of a CBHI. The gap between voluntary and compulsory membership scores was smaller among women (p = 0.040), people under 35 (p = 0.033), and people with no health coverage (p = 0.011). Voluntary or compulsory membership was correlated (p = 0.000) to trust in current CBHIs and health systems. Lack of trust in the CBHI management has been more disadvantageous for acceptance of the mandatory than the voluntary membership. No particular preference emerged as the preferred administrative channel (e.g. death certificate, identity card, etc.) to enforce the mandatory option. The results confirmed the well-known challenges of building universal health coverage based on CBHIs-a poorly appreciated model whose low performance reduces the acceptability of populations to adhere to it, whether voluntary or mandatory. Suppose Senegal persists in its health insurance approach. In that case, it will be essential to strengthen the performance and funding of CBHIs, and to gain population trust to enable a mandatory or more systemic membership.

Surfing Corona waves - instead of breaking them: Rethinking the role of natural immunity in COVID-19 policy

In the first two years of the pandemic, COVID-19 response policies have aimed to break Corona waves through non-pharmaceutical interventions and mass vaccination. However, for long-term strategies to be effective and efficient, and to avoid massive disruption and social harms, it is crucial to introduce the role of natural immunity in our thinking about COVID-19  (or future "Disease-X") control and prevention. We argue that any Corona or similar virus control policy must appropriately balance five key elements simultaneously: balancing the various fundamental interests of the nation, as well as the various interventions within the health sector; tailoring the prevention measures and treatments to individual needs; limiting social interaction restrictions; and balancing the role of vaccinations against the role of naturally induced immunity. Given the high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 and its differential impact on population segments, we examine this last element in more detail and argue that an important aspect of 'living with the virus' will be to better understand the role of naturally induced immunity in our overall COVID-19 policy response. In our eyes, a policy approach that factors natural immunity should be considered for persons without major comorbidities and those having 'encountered' the antigen in the past.

Patterns of endocardial fibroelastosis without atrioventricular block in fetuses exposed to anti-Ro/SSA antibodies

Anti-Ro/SSA-antibody-mediated endocardial fibroelastosis (EFE) without atrioventricular (AV) block at presentation is a rare cardiac phenotype. We report on 11 fetuses with this rare type of anti-Ro/SSA-antibody-mediated cardiac involvement, presenting with a distinctive echocardiographic pattern of EFE. Eleven fetuses with isolated EFE at presentation were included from four cardiac centers, and experienced fetal cardiologists reached a consensus regarding EFE location on echocardiography at presentation. Interval changes to subsequent fetal and postnatal echocardiograms were assessed to evaluate response to therapy. Echocardiographic markers of cardiac performance, including diastolic function and AV conduction, were reviewed. Ten fetuses were found to have EFE of the aortic root, proximal aorta and/or left ventricular outflow tract. In the same 10 cases, EFE of the pulmonary root, pulmonary artery and/or right ventricular outflow tract was identified. Six cases had atrial EFE and six had EFE of the crux. Four cases were known to be positive for anti-Ro/SSA antibodies prior to diagnosis, whereas, in the remaining seven, echocardiographic findings prompted testing, which was positive in all cases. The AV interval at presentation was normal in all cases, but one fetus subsequently developed AV block. Nine patients were treated with transplacental dexamethasone, five of which also received intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), and one received IVIG only. Of the 10 treated cases, six had improvement in EFE as shown by serial imaging and, in four cases, the severity was unchanged. All patients were liveborn. In our cohort, EFE of the aortic and pulmonary arteries and outflow tracts was nearly universal, and involvement of the atria and the crux of the heart was also common. The high survival rate and low burden of AV block are also suggestive of a distinct phenotype of anti-Ro/SSA-antibody-mediated cardiac disease with a favorable prognosis. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Functional connectivity signatures of major depressive disorder: machine learning analysis of two multicenter neuroimaging studies

The promise of machine learning has fueled the hope for developing diagnostic tools for psychiatry. Initial studies showed high accuracy for the identification of major depressive disorder (MDD) with resting-state connectivity, but progress has been hampered by the absence of large datasets. Here we used regular machine learning and advanced deep learning algorithms to differentiate patients with MDD from healthy controls and identify neurophysiological signatures of depression in two of the largest resting-state datasets for MDD. We obtained resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the REST-meta-MDD (N = 2338) and PsyMRI (N = 1039) consortia. Classification of functional connectivity matrices was done using support vector machines (SVM) and graph convolutional neural networks (GCN), and performance was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Features were visualized using GCN-Explainer, an ablation study and univariate t-testing. The results showed a mean classification accuracy of 61% for MDD versus controls. Mean accuracy for classifying (non-)medicated subgroups was 62%. Sex classification accuracy was substantially better across datasets (73-81%). Visualization of the results showed that classifications were driven by stronger thalamic connections in both datasets, while nearly all other connections were weaker with small univariate effect sizes. These results suggest that whole brain resting-state connectivity is a reliable though poor biomarker for MDD, presumably due to disease heterogeneity as further supported by the higher accuracy for sex classification using the same methods. Deep learning revealed thalamic hyperconnectivity as a prominent neurophysiological signature of depression in both multicenter studies, which may guide the development of biomarkers in future studies.

Human endogenous oxytocin and its neural correlates show adaptive responses to social touch based on recent social context

Both oxytocin (OT) and touch are key mediators of social attachment. In rodents, tactile stimulation elicits the endogenous release of OT, potentially facilitating attachment and other forms of prosocial behavior, yet the relationship between endogenous OT and neural modulation remains unexplored in humans. Using a serial sampling of plasma hormone levels during functional neuroimaging across two successive social interactions, we show that contextual circumstances of social touch influence not only current hormonal and brain responses but also later responses. Namely, touch from a male to his female romantic partner enhanced her subsequent OT release for touch from an unfamiliar stranger, yet females' OT responses to partner touch were dampened following stranger touch. Hypothalamus and dorsal raphe activation reflected plasma OT changes during the initial social interaction. In the subsequent interaction, precuneus and parietal-temporal cortex pathways tracked time- and context-dependent variables in an OT-dependent manner. This OT-dependent cortical modulation included a region of the medial prefrontal cortex that also covaried with plasma cortisol, suggesting an influence on stress responses. These findings demonstrate that modulation between hormones and the brain during human social interactions can flexibly adapt to features of social context over time.

Expectations and disappointments relative to COVID-19 passes: results from a voluntary mixed-methods study in French-speaking Belgium

Objectives

Belgium enacted a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pass - the 'COVID Safe Ticket' (CST) - in October 2021. This study aimed to understand the expectations and reasons given by those supporting this policy measure.

Methods

This mixed methods study was based on a voluntary online survey among 9444 French-speaking residents in Belgium.

Results

Most respondents were not very supportive of the CST, with only 617 respondents (7%) being pro-CST. Compared with other respondents, the pro-CST sample comprised more males, older people, people scared of COVID-19, people who had confidence in the COVID-19 vaccines, and highly educated people. A qualitative analysis was undertaken to identify the reasons why respondents supported the CST. Two lines of argument were related to personal comfort (individual protection and means of 'recovering freedom'), and two other lines were related to collective protection (controlling the pandemic and incentivizing vaccination). Pro-CST respondents also indicated some limitations of the CST.

Conclusions

The expectations regarding the CST were high, diverse and not entirely rational. Some contradictions and frustration emerged from the respondents' comments. The CST may have exacerbated the social divide in society. The high expectations risk leading to comparably high levels of disappointment, resulting in potential distrust towards future public health interventions.

The danger of the single storyline obfuscating the complexities of managing SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie showed how a single story is limited and thereby distorts the true nature of an issue. During this COVID-19 pandemic there have been, at least, three consecutive single stories-the 'lethal threat' story, followed by the 'economic threat' story, and finally the 'vaccine miracle' story. None of these single stories can convincingly and permanently capture the dynamics of the pandemic. This is because countries experienced different morbidity and mortality patterns, different socioeconomic disadvantage, age and vulnerability of population, timing and level of lockdown with economic variability, and, despite heavy promotion, vaccines were beset with a significant and variable degree of hesitancy. Lack of transparency, coherence and consistency of pandemic management-arising from holding on to single storylines-showed the global deficiency of public health policy and planning, an underfunding of (public) health and social services, and a growing distrust in governments' ability to manage crises effectively. Indeed, the global management has increased already large inequities, and little has been learnt to address the growing crises of more infectious and potentially more lethal virus mutations. Holding onto single stories prevents the necessary learnings to understand and manage the complexities of 'wicked' problems, whereas listening to the many stories provides insights and pathways to do so effectively as well as efficiently.

Factors Associated With COVID-19 Vaccination Among Individuals With Vaccine Hesitancy in French-Speaking Belgium

This cross-sectional study examines why people in French-speaking regions of Belgium who initially resisted getting the COVID-19 vaccine eventually chose to get vaccinated.

[COVID-19 pandemic : have we not reached the limits of the Pasteurian paradigm ?]

In this article, the authors argue that the response to the COVID-19 pandemic is primarily focused exclusively on the virus, and would benefit from a broadening of perspective to a more systemic approach. After presenting, in a deliberately caricatural way, the opposition between the Pasteurian and holistic paradigms, they present some limitations of the Pasteurian approach, which is still dominant in the medical community. They put forward two explanations for the perpetuation of this dominance, relating to research methods and medical training. They then apply their analysis to the COVID-19 response strategy, arguing that the "neglect" of social determinants and of the role of co-morbidities - which play an essential role in the severity of the disease - constitutes a clear failure of public health. It is thus deprived of a whole range of prevention and health promotion tools, and even of early holistic care. They conclude by suggesting that the COVID-19 crisis reveals the limits of the Pasteurian model and calls for a paradigm shift, allowing for a more complex, systemic and coherent approach to COVID-19 - and all other health problems.

Psilocybin targets a common molecular mechanism for cognitive impairment and increased craving in alcoholism

Alcohol-dependent patients commonly show impairments in executive functions that facilitate craving and can lead to relapse. However, the molecular mechanisms leading to executive dysfunction in alcoholism are poorly understood, and new effective pharmacological treatments are desired. Here, using a bidirectional neuromodulation approach, we demonstrate a causal link between reduced prefrontal mGluR2 function and both impaired executive control and alcohol craving. A neuron-specific prefrontal mGluR2 knockdown in rats generated a phenotype of reduced cognitive flexibility and excessive alcohol seeking. Conversely, virally restoring prefrontal mGluR2 levels in alcohol-dependent rats rescued these pathological behaviors. In the search for a pharmacological intervention with high translational potential, psilocybin was capable of restoring mGluR2 expression and reducing relapse behavior. Last, we propose a FDG-PET biomarker strategy to identify mGluR2 treatment-responsive individuals. In conclusion, we identified a common molecular pathological mechanism for both executive dysfunction and alcohol craving and provided a personalized mGluR2 mechanism-based intervention strategy for medication development for alcoholism.

COVID-19: an 'extraterrestrial' disease?

BACKGROUND

Since the beginning of the pandemic, COVID-19 has been regarded as an exceptional disease. Control measures have exclusively focused on 'the virus', while failing to account for other biological and social factors that determine severe forms of the disease.

AIM

We argue that although COVID-19 was initially considered a new challenge, justifying extraordinary response measures, this situation has changed - and so should our response.

MAIN ARGUMENTS

We now know that COVID-19 shares many features of common infectious respiratory diseases, and can now ascertain that SARS-CoV-2 has not suddenly presented new problems. Instead, it has exposed and exacerbated existing problems in health systems and the underlying health of the population. COVID-19 is evidently not an 'extraterrestrial' disease. It is a complex zoonotic disease, and it needs to be managed as such, following long-proven principles of medicine and public health.

CONCLUSION

A complex disease cannot be solved through a simple, magic-bullet cure or vaccine. The heterogeneity of population profiles susceptible to developing a severe form of COVID-19 suggests the need to adopt varying, targeted measures that are able to address risk profiles in an appropriate way. The critical role of comorbidities in disease severity calls for short-term, virus-targeted interventions to be complemented with medium-term policies aimed at reducing the burden of comorbidities, as well as mitigating the risk of transition from infection to disease. Strategies required include upstream prevention, early treatment, and consolidation of the health system.

Care-Seeking for Fever for Children Under the Age of Five Before and After the Free Healthcare Initiative in Burkina Faso: Evidence from Three Population-Based Surveys

Background

In 2016, a free healthcare policy (FHP) was implemented in Burkina Faso for children under the age of five. In our study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of care-seeking for a fever in children under the age of five before and after the implementation of the FHP and to analyze the determinants of not seeking care under the FHP.

Methods

The data of three nationally representative surveys were used to evaluate the trends of the prevalence of care-seeking. We performed a modified Poisson regression using a generalized estimating equation to determine the factors associated with not seeking care.

Results

The prevalence for care seeking increased from 57.5% (95% CI, 54.2–60.8) in 2014 to 72.3% (95% CI, 68.1–76.2) in 2017. Children from the poor quintile were less likely to seek care when compared to children from the poorest quintile (prevalence ratio (PR) = 0.7 (95% CI, 0.5–0.9)). Caregivers who did not have messages regarding malaria in the past six months were more likely not to seek care (PR = 0.8 (95% CI, 0.7–0.9)). Caregivers of children aged 36–59 months were more likely not to seek care compared to those aged <12 months (PR = 1.6 (95% CI, 1.2–2.1)). Children from the Boucle du Mouhoun region (PR = 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2–3.2)) and the Centre-Est region (PR = 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2–3.0)) were more likely not to seek care compared to children from the Sud Ouest region.

Conclusion

Our study showed an increase in the prevalence of care-seeking after the implementation of the FHP. Even if this is encouraging, these findings highlight the critical importance of non-financial barriers to care-seeking. Maintaining FHP and tackling the barriers should be considered by policy makers to increase care-seeking.

What theories underpin performance-based financing? A scoping review

PURPOSE

The study aims to explore the theoretical bases justifying the use of performance-based financing (PBF) in the health sector in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

The authors conducted a scoping review of the literature on PBF so as to identify the theories utilized to underpin it and analyzed its theoretical justifications.

FINDINGS

Sixty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Economic theories were predominant, with the principal-agent theory being the most commonly-used theory, explicitly referred to by two-thirds of included studies. Psychological theories were also common, with a wide array of motivation theories. Other disciplines in the form of management or organizational science, political and social science and systems approaches also contributed. However, some of the theories referred to contradicted each other. Many of the studies included only casually alluded to one or more theories, and very few used these theories to justify or support PBF. No theory emerged as a dominant, consistent and credible justification of PBF, perhaps except for the principal-agent theory, which was often inappropriately applied in the included studies, and when it included additional assumptions reflecting the contexts of the health sector in LMICs, might actually warn against adopting PBF.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Overall, this review has not been able to identify a comprehensive, credible, consistent, theoretical justification for using PBF rather than alternative approaches to health system reforms and healthcare providers' motivation in LMICs.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

The theoretical justifications of PBF in the health sector in LMICs are under-documented. This review is the first of this kind and should encourage further debate and theoretical exploration of the justifications of PBF.

Falling Through the Cracks: The Need to Include Acute Pancreatitis in Risk Assessment Models for Acute Deep Venous Thrombosis

Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory condition caused by an insult to the pancreas. Pancreatitis is associated with local and systemic complications such as splenic vein thrombosis and systemic inflammatory response syndromes (SIRS), respectively. Pancreatitis increases the risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) through a combination of increased production of pro-inflammatory cytokines and systemic vascular injury. However, DVT and pulmonary embolism remain under-recognized and underappreciated complications of acute pancreatitis as they fall through the cracks in the commonly used venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment model. We therefore propose that VTE prophylaxis needs to be considered by all clinicians when admitting and evaluating patients with acute pancreatitis and that acute pancreatitis needs to be included on the various VTE risk assessment calculators as it is a significant risk factor for the development of VTE.

An assessment of the core capacities of the Senegalese health system to deliver Universal Health Coverage

Senegal is firmly committed to the objective of universal health coverage (UHC). Various initiatives have been launched over the past decade to protect the Senegalese population against health hazards, but these initiatives are so far fragmented. UHC cannot be achieved without health system strengthening (HSS). Here we assess the core capacities of the Senegalese health systems to deliver UHC, and identify requirements for HSS in order to implement and facilitate progress towards UHC. Based on a critical review of existing data and documents, complemented by the authors' experience in supporting UHC policy making and implementation, we evaluate the main foundational and institutional bottlenecks relative to the six health system building blocks, together with an analysis of the demand-side of the health system, which facilitate or hamper progress towards UHC. Despite the fact that many institutions are now in place to deliver UHC, important weaknesses limit progress along the two dimensions of UHC. Substantial disparities characterise resource allocation in the health sector, and health risk protection schemes are highly fragmented. This spreads down to the rest of the health system including service delivery and consequently, impacts on health outcomes. These constraints are acknowledged by the authorities, solutions have been proposed, but these necessitate strong political will. Moreover, progress towards UHC is constrained by the difficulty to act on social determinants of health and a lack of fiscal space.

Budgeting challenges on the path towards universal health coverage: the case of Benin

BACKGROUND

In its pursuance of universal health coverage (UHC), the government of Benin is piloting a project of mandatory social insurance for health entitled "ARCH".

METHODS

We analysed budget data and ARCH documents, and conducted four observation missions in Benin between March 2018 and January 2020. Results are presented in terms of the three classical objectives of public expenditure management.

RESULTS

The government of Benin faces important budgeting challenges when it comes to implementing the ARCH social insurance project: (i) the fiscal space is quite limited, there is a limited potential for new taxes and these may not benefit the ARCH funding, hence the need to prioritise fiscal resources without jeopardising other areas; (ii) the purchasing of health services should be more strategic so as to increase allocative efficiency and equity; (iii) the efficiency of the expenditure process needs to be improved, and more autonomy needs to be devoted to the operational level, so as to ensure that health facilities are reimbursed in a timely fashion in order to meet insured people's health costs, in such a way as to avoid jeopardizing the financial equilibrium of these facilities.

CONCLUSION

The important budgeting challenges faced by Benin when it comes to implementing its UHC policy are also faced by many other African countries. It is important to avoid a situation in which the resources dedicated by the government to the social health insurance system are at the expense of a reduction in the financing of preventive and promotional primary healthcare services.

Combining thermophilic aerobic reactor (TAR) with mesophilic anaerobic digestion (MAD) improves the degradation of pharmaceutical compounds

The removal efficiency of nine pharmaceutical compounds from primary sludge was evaluated in two different operating conditions: (i) in conventional Mesophilic Anaerobic Digestion (MAD) alone and (ii) in a co-treatment process combining Mesophilic Anaerobic Digestion and a Thermophilic Aerobic Reactor (MAD-TAR). The pilot scale reactors were fed with primary sludge obtained after decantation of urban wastewater. Concerning the biodegradation of organic matter, thermophilic aeration increased solubilization and hydrolysis yields of digestion, resulting in a further 26% supplementary removal of chemical oxygen demand (COD) in MAD-TAR process compared to the conventional mesophilic anaerobic digestion. The highest removal rate of target micropollutants were observed for caffeine (CAF) and sulfamethoxazole (SMX) (>89%) with no substantial differences between both processes. Furthermore, MAD-TAR process showed a significant increase of removal efficiency for oxazepam (OXA) (73%), propranolol (PRO) (61%) and ofloxacine (OFL) (41%) and a slight increase for diclofenac (DIC) (4%) and 2 hydroxy-ibuprofen (2OH-IBP) (5%). However, ibuprofen (IBP) and carbamazepine (CBZ) were not degraded during both processes. Anaerobic digestion affected the liquid-solid partition of most target compounds. Sorbed fraction of pharmaceutical compounds on the sludge tend to decrease after digestion, this tendency being more pronounced in the case of the MAD-TAR process due to much lower concentration of solids.

Assessment of Anhedonia in Adults With and Without Mental Illness: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Anhedonia, a reduced capacity for pleasure, is described for many psychiatric and neurologic conditions. However, a decade after the Research Domain Criteria launch, whether anhedonia severity differs between diagnoses is still unclear. Reference values for hedonic capacity in healthy humans are also needed.

OBJECTIVE

To generate and compare reference values for anhedonia levels in adults with and without mental illness.

DATA SOURCES

Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, and Google Scholar were used to list all articles from January 1, 1995 to July 2, 2019, citing the scale development report of a widely used anhedonia questionnaire, the Snaith-Hamilton Pleasure Scale (SHAPS). Searches were conducted from April 5 to 11, 2018, and on July 2, 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies including healthy patients and those with a verified diagnosis, assessed at baseline or in a no-treatment condition with the complete 14-item SHAPS, were included in this preregistered meta-analysis.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Random-effects models were used to calculate mean SHAPS scores and 95% CIs separately for healthy participants and patients with current major depressive disorder (MDD), past/remitted MDD, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, substance use disorders, Parkinson disease, and chronic pain. SHAPS scores were compared between groups using meta-regression, and traditional effect size meta-analyses were conducted to estimate differences in SHAPS scores between healthy and patient samples. This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Self-reported anhedonia as measured by 2 different formats of the SHAPS (possible ranges, 0-14 and 14-56 points), with higher values on both scales indicating greater anhedonia symptoms.

RESULTS

In the available literature (168 articles; 16 494 participants; 8058 [49%] female participants; aged 13-72 years), patients with current MDD, schizophrenia, substance use disorder, Parkinson disease, and chronic pain scored higher on the SHAPS than healthy participants. Within the patient groups, those with current MDD scored considerably higher than all other groups. Patients with remitted MDD scored within the healthy range (g = 0.1). This pattern replicated across SHAPS scoring methods and was consistent across point estimate and effect size analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this meta-analysis indicate that the severity of anhedonia may differ across disorders associated with anhedonia. Whereas anhedonia in MDD affects multiple pleasure domains, patients with other conditions may experience decreased enjoyment of only a minority of life's many rewards. These findings have implications for psychiatric taxonomy development, where dimensional approaches are gaining attention. Moreover, the SHAPS reference values presented herein may be useful for researchers and clinicians assessing the efficacy of anhedonia treatments.

Survival and functional outcome at hospital discharge following in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA): A prospective multicentre observational study

AIM

To evaluate the functional outcome of patients after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) and to identify associations with good functional outcome at hospital discharge.

METHOD

Emergency calls were prospectively screened and data collected for IHCAs in seven Australian hospitals. Patients were included if aged > 18 years, admitted as an acute care hospital in-patient and experienced IHCA; defined by a period of unresponsiveness with no observed respiratory effort and commencement of external cardiac compressions. Data collected included patient demographics, clinical and cardiac arrest characteristics, survival and functional outcome at hospital discharge using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and Katz Index of Independence in ADLs (Katz-ADL).

RESULTS

152 patients suffered 159 IHCAs (male 66.4%; mean age 70.2 (± 13.9) years). Sixty patients (39.5%) survived, of whom 43 (71.7%) had a good functional outcome (mRS ≤ 3) and 38 (63.3%) were independent with activities of daily living (ADLs) at hospital discharge (Katz-ADL = 6). Younger age (OR 0.95; 95% CI 0.91-0.98; p = 0.003), shorter duration of CPR (OR 0.84; 95% CI 0.77-0.91; p < 0.0001) and shorter duration of hospital admission prior to IHCA (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93-0.998; p = 0.04) were independently associated with a good functional outcome at hospital discharge.

CONCLUSION

The majority of survivors had a good functional outcome and were independent with their ADLs at hospital discharge. Factors associated with good functional outcome at hospital discharge were identified.

Misunderstandings and ambiguities in strategic purchasing in low- and middle-income countries

Strategic purchasing is branded as an approach that is necessary for progress towards universal health coverage. While we agree that publicly purchased health services should respond to society's needs and patient expectations, and thus generally endorse strategic purchasing, here we would like to explore two emerging concerns within current discussions in low- and middle-income countries. First, there exists a great deal of misunderstanding and conceptual unclarity, within practitioner groups, around the concept of strategic purchasing and what instruments it incorporates. Second, there is a growing trend to regularly fuse strategic purchasing into a performance-based financing (PBF) discourse in ways that increasingly blur their distinctive properties and policy orientations, while perhaps too easily obfuscating potential tensions. We believe the discourse on strategic purchasing would benefit from better conceptual clarity by dissociating and prioritising its two objectives, namely: priority should be given to needs-based allocation of resources, while rewarding performance is a subsequent concern. We argue there is a need for a more thoroughgoing conceptual and empirical re-examination of strategic purchasing's priorities, its link with PBF, as well as for a wider evidence-base on what strategic purchasing tools exist and which are most appropriate for diverse contexts.

How is equity approached in universal health coverage? An analysis of global and country policy documents in Benin and Senegal

BACKGROUND

Equity seems inherent to the pursuance of universal health coverage (UHC), but it is not a natural consequence of it. We explore how the multidimensional concept of equity has been approached in key global UHC policy documents, as well as in country-level UHC policies.

METHODS

We analysed a purposeful sample of UHC reports and policy documents both at global level and in two Western African countries (Benin and Senegal). We manually searched each document for its use and discussion of equity and related terms. The content was summarised and thematically analysed, in order to comprehend how these concepts were understood in the documents. We distinguished between the level at which inequity takes place and the origin or types of inequities.

RESULTS

Most of the documents analysed do not define equity in the first place, and speak about "health inequities" in the broad sense, without mentioning the dimension or type of inequity considered. Some dimensions of equity are ambiguous - especially coverage and financing. Many documents assimilate equity to an overall objective or guiding principle closely associated to UHC. The concept of equity is also often linked to other concepts and values (social justice, inclusion, solidarity, human rights - but also to efficiency and sustainability). Regarding the levels of equity most often considered, access (availability, coverage, provision) is the most often quoted dimension, followed by financial protection. Regarding the types of equity considered, those most referred to are socio-economic, geographic, and gender-based disparities. In Benin and Senegal, geographic inequities are mostly pinpointed by UHC policy documents, but concrete interventions mostly target the poor. Overall, the UHC policy of both countries are quite similar in terms of their approach to equity.

CONCLUSIONS

While equity is widely referred to in global and country-specific UHC policy documents, its multiple dimensions results in a rather rhetorical utilisation of the concept. Whereas equity covers various levels and types, many global UHC documents fail to define it properly and to comprehend the breadth of the concept. Consequently, perhaps, country-specific policy documents also use equity as a rhetoric principle, without sufficient consideration for concrete ways for implementation.

Gender differences in the behavioral and subjective effects of methamphetamine in healthy humans

RATIONALE

Methamphetamine (MA) use is steadily increasing and thus constitutes a major public health concern. Women seem to be particularly vulnerable to developing MA use disorder, as they initiate use at a younger age and transition more quickly to problematic use. Initial drug responses may predict subsequent use, but little information exists on potential gender differences in the acute effects of MA prior to dependence.

OBJECTIVE

We examined gender differences in the acute effects of MA on subjective mood and reward-related behavior in healthy, non-dependent humans.

METHODS

Men (n = 44) and women (n = 29) completed 4 sessions in which they received placebo or MA under double-blind conditions twice each. During peak drug effect, participants completed the monetary incentive delay task to assess reaction times to cues signaling potential monetary losses or gains, in an effort to determine if MA would potentiate reward-motivated behavior. Cardiovascular and subjective drug effects were assessed throughout sessions.

RESULTS

Overall, participants responded more quickly to cues predicting incentivized trials, particularly large-magnitude incentives, than to cues predicting no incentive. MA produced faster reaction times in women, but not in men. MA produced typical stimulant-like subjective and cardiovascular effects in all participants, but subjective ratings of vigor and (reduced) sedation were greater in women than in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Women appear to be more sensitive to the psychomotor-related behavioral and subjective effects of MA. These findings provide initial insight into gender differences in acute effects of MA that may contribute to gender differences in problematic MA use.

[Contribution of the maximal exercise test to diagnosis the vascular origin of leg pain in athletes]

Leg pain is a common debilitating symptom in athletes. Vascular disease is not often proposed as a possible cause. Maximal exercise with measure of the ankle-brachial index after exercise can be an interesting diagnostic test. We report an illustrative case where an athlete presented leg pain revealing arterial disease disclosed by exercise. Interestingly, sub-maximal exercise did not cause pain, causing a delay in diagnosis. The vascular origin of leg pain can be detected with a maximal exercise test that induces the symptomatic pain or at least clinical discomfort.

Relationship between facet joint distraction during anterior cervical discectomy and fusion for trauma and functional outcome

Aims

The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the clinical relevance of increased facet joint distraction as a result of anterior cervical decompression and fusion (ACDF) for trauma.

Patients and Methods

A total of 155 patients (130 men, 25 women. Mean age 42.7 years; 16 to 87) who had undergone ACDF between 1 January 2001 and 1 January 2016 were included in the study. Outcome measures included the Neck Disability Index (NDI) and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. Lateral cervical spine radiographs taken in the immediate postoperative period were reviewed to compare the interfacet distance of the operated segment with those of the facet joints above and below.

Results

There was a statistically significant relationship between greater facet distraction and increased NDI and VAS pain scores. This was further confirmed by Spearman correlation, which showed evidence of a moderate correlation between both NDI score and facet joint distraction (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.34; p < 0.001) and VAS score and facet distraction (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.52; p < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a discernible transition point between outcome scores. Significantly worse outcomes, in terms of both NDI scores (17.8 vs 8.2; p < 0.001) and VAS scores (4.5 vs 1.3; p < 0.001), were seen with facet distraction of 3 mm or more. Patients who went on to have a posterior fusion also had increased NDI and VAS scores, independent of facet distraction.

Conclusion

After undergoing ACDF for the treatment of cervical spine injury, patients with facet joint distraction of 3 mm or more have worse NDI and VAS pain scores. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1201–7.

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options

Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to reflect the lack of consistent evidence on the proposed policy options. This suggests that experts' opinions should be framed within strengthened inclusive and "evidence-informed deliberative processes" where the trade-offs along the 3 dimensions of UHC-extending the population covered against health hazards, expanding the range of services and benefits covered, and reducing out-of-pocket expenditures-can be discussed in a transparent and contextualized setting.

Performance-based Financing in Africa: Time to Test Measures for Equity

Over the past 15 years, hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in reforms founded on performance-based financing (PBF) in low- and middle-income countries. While evidence on its effectiveness and efficiency is still controversial, there appears to be an emerging consensus that equity has not been adequately considered. In this article, we show how PBF-type interventions in Africa have not sufficiently taken into account equity of access to care for the worst-off and their financial protection. In reviewing the history of health reforms in Africa, we show that this omission is nothing new. We suggest that strategic purchasing and PBF-type actions would benefit from being implemented in ways that promote equity and the financial protection of populations in Africa. Without such a reorientation of reforms, it will be impossible to achieve universal health coverage by 2030.

Performance-based financing in low-income and middle-income countries: isn't it time for a rethink?

This paper questions the view that performance-based financing (PBF) in the health sector is an effective, efficient and equitable approach to improving the performance of health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). PBF was conceived as an open approach adapted to specific country needs, having the potential to foster system-wide reforms. However, as with many strategies and tools, there is a gap between what was planned and what is actually implemented. This paper argues that PBF as it is currently implemented in many contexts does not satisfy the promises. First, since the start of PBF implementation in LMICs, concerns have been raised on the basis of empirical evidence from different settings and disciplines that indicated the risks, cost and perverse effects. However, PBF implementation was rushed despite insufficient evidence of its effectiveness. Second, there is a lack of domestic ownership of PBF. Considering the amounts of time and money it now absorbs, and the lack of evidence of effectiveness and efficiency, PBF can be characterised as a donor fad. Third, by presenting itself as a comprehensive approach that makes it possible to address all aspects of the health system in any context, PBF monopolises attention and focuses policy dialogue on the short-term results of PBF programmes while diverting attention and resources from broader processes of change and necessary reforms. Too little care is given to system-wide and long-term effects, so that PBF can actually damage health services and systems. This paper ends by proposing entry points for alternative approaches.

Performance-Based Financing to Strengthen the Health System in Benin: Challenging the Mainstream Approach

BACKGROUND

Performance-based financing (PBF) is often proposed as a way to improve health system performance. In Benin, PBF was launched in 2012 through a World Bank-supported project. The Belgian Development Agency (BTC) followed suit through a health system strengthening (HSS) project. This paper analyses and draws lessons from the experience of BTC-supported PBF alternative approach - especially with regards to institutional aspects, the role of demand-side actors, ownership, and cost-effectiveness - and explores the mechanisms at stake so as to better understand how the "PBF package" functions and produces effects.

METHODS

An exploratory, theory-driven evaluation approach was adopted. Causal mechanisms through which PBF is hypothesised to impact on results were singled out and explored. This paper stems from the co-authors' capitalisation of experiences; mixed methods were used to collect, triangulate and analyse information. Results are structured along Witter et al framework.

RESULTS

Influence of context is strong over PBF in Benin; the policy is donor-driven. BTC did not adopt the World Bank's mainstream PBF model, but developed an alternative approach in line with its HSS support programme, which is grounded on existing domestic institutions. The main features of this approach are described (decentralised governance, peer review verification, counter-verification entrusted to health service users' platforms), as well as its adaptive process. PBF has contributed to strengthen various aspects of the health system and led to modest progress in utilisation of health services, but noticeable improvements in healthcare quality. Three mechanisms explaining observed outcomes within the context are described: comprehensive HSS at district level; acting on health workers' motivation through a complex package of incentives; and increased accountability by reinforcing dialogue with demand-side actors. Cost-effectiveness and sustainability issues are also discussed.

CONCLUSION

BTC's alternative PBF approach is both promising in terms of effects, ownership and sustainability, and less resource consuming. This experience testifies that PBF is not a uniform or rigid model, and opens the policy ground for recipient governments to put their own emphasis and priorities and design ad hoc models adapted to their context specificities. However, integrating PBF within the normal functioning of local health systems, in line with other reforms, is a big challenge.

Impact of viral hepatitis aetiology on survival outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma: A large multicentre cohort study

While HBV and HCV are risk factors for HCC, uncertainty exists as to whether these viral infections have prognostic significance in HCC. Thus, we compared the overall survival of patients with HBV, HCV and nonviral HCC, and evaluated whether the presence of HBV and HCV predicts patient outcomes. We conducted a multicentre study of HCC cases diagnosed at six Melbourne tertiary hospitals between Jan 2000-Dec 2014. Patient demographics, liver disease and tumour characteristics and patient outcomes were obtained from hospital databases, computer records and the Victorian Death Registry. Survival outcomes were compared between HBV, HCV and nonviral hepatitis cases and predictors of survival determined using Cox proportional hazards regression. There were 1436 new HCC cases identified including 776 due to viral hepatitis (HBV 235, HCV 511, HBV-HCV 30) and 660 from nonviral causes. The median survival of HBV, HCV and nonviral HCC patients was 59.1, 28.4 and 20.9 months, respectively (P<.0001). On multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for survival included HCC aetiology, gender, BCLC stage, serum AFP, total number and size of lesions, and serum creatinine and albumin. After adjusting for these and method of detection, HBV remained an independent predictor of improved overall survival when compared to both nonviral (HR 0.60%, 95% CI 0.35-0.98; P=.03) and HCV-related HCC (HR 0.51%, 95% CI 0.30-0.85; P=.01). In this large multicentre study, HBV is independently associated with improved overall survival compared with HCV and nonviral-related HCC. Further studies are needed to determine the underlying factor(s) responsible.

Assessing contemporary intensive care unit outcome: development and validation of the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death admission model

The Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) model currently used for benchmarking intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia and New Zealand utilises physiological data collected up to 24 hours after ICU admission to estimate the risk of hospital mortality. This study aimed to develop the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death admission (ANZROD₀) model to predict hospital mortality using data available at presentation to ICU and compare its performance with the ANZROD in Australian and New Zealand hospitals. Data pertaining to all ICU admissions between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2015 were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. Hospital mortality was modelled using logistic regression with development (two-thirds) and validation (one-third) datasets. All predictor variables available at ICU admission were considered for inclusion in the ANZROD₀ model. Model performance was assessed using Brier score, standardised mortality ratio and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The relationship between ANZROD₀ and ANZROD predicted risk of death was assessed using linear regression. After standard exclusions, 1,097,416 patients were available for model development and validation. Observed mortality was 9.5%. Model performance measures (Brier score, standardised mortality ratio and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the ANZROD₀ and ANZROD in the validation dataset were 0.069, 1.0 and 0.853; 0.057, 1.0 and 0.909, respectively. There was a strong positive correlation between the mortality predictions with an overall R² of 0.73. We found that the ANZROD₀ model had acceptable calibration and discrimination. Predictions from the models had high correlations in all major diagnostic groups, with the exception of cardiac surgery and possibly trauma and sepsis.

A retrospective comparison of infliximab versus adalimumab as induction and maintenance therapy for Crohn disease

BACKGROUND

In Australia, infliximab (IFX) and adalimumab (ADA) are available for the treatment of moderate-severe Crohn disease (CD) refractory to conventional therapies, with minimal local data comparing their efficacy.

AIM

The aim of this study was to compare clinical and biochemical outcomes at 3 and 12 months between patients receiving induction and maintenance therapy with IFX versus ADA.

METHODS

Retrospective single-centre audit of all patients commenced on IFX or ADA as their first anti-tumour necrosis factor agent between July 2007 and May 2012. Clinical and biochemical parameters were compared pre-commencement, 3 and 12 months post-commencement.

RESULTS

A total of 81 patients was included in the study; 63 IFX-treated and 18 ADA-treated. Significant Crohn disease activity index (CDAI) reductions were noted within both groups at 3 months (P < 0.001) and 12 months (P < 0.001). Similarly, significant reductions were noted in steroid doses within groups at 3 months (P < 0.05) and 12 months (P < 0.05), with notable reductions in C-reactive protein (CRP) at 3 months within groups (P < 0.05). Adverse events occurred in 14.3% of IFX and 11.1% of ADA patients. Comparing IFX with ADA, no difference was shown between groups in CDAI reductions at 3 months (P = 0.94) and 12 months (P = 0.95), steroid dosing at 3 months (P = 0.23) and 12 months (P = 0.81), and CRP reduction at 3 months (P = 0.33) and 12 months (P = 0.62). Fistula-related admissions were significantly reduced in IFX patients (100% reduction post-IFX vs 66.7% post-ADA) (P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Clinical and biochemical outcomes were similar in patients treated with IFX or ADA as induction and maintenance therapy for CD. However, significant reductions were noted in admissions relating to fistulising disease in IFX patients.