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Redondo MJ, Geyer S, Steck AK, Sharp S, Wentworth JM, Weedon MN, Antinozzi P, Sosenko J, Atkinson M, Pugliese A, Oram RA, Antinozzi P, Atkinson M, Battaglia M, Becker D, Bingley P, Bosi E, Buckner J, Colman P, Gottlieb P, Herold K, Insel R, Kay T, Knip M, Marks J, Moran A, Palmer J, Peakman M, Philipson L, Pugliese A, Raskin P, Rodriguez H, Roep B, Russell W, Schatz D, Wherrett D, Wilson D, Winter W, Ziegler A, Benoist C, Blum J, Chase P, Clare-Salzler M, Clynes R, Eisenbarth G, Fathman C, Grave G, Hering B, Kaufman F, Leschek E, Mahon J, Nanto-Salonen K, Nepom G, Orban T, Parkman R, Pescovitz M, Peyman J, Roncarolo M, Simell O, Sherwin R, Siegelman M, Steck A, Thomas J, Trucco M, Wagner J, Greenbaum ,CJ, Bourcier K, Insel R, Krischer JP, Leschek E, Rafkin L, Spain L, Cowie C, Foulkes M, Krause-Steinrauf H, Lachin JM, Malozowski S, Peyman J, Ridge J, Savage P, Skyler JS, Zafonte SJ, Kenyon NS, Santiago I, Sosenko JM, Bundy B, Abbondondolo M, Adams T, Amado D, Asif I, Boonstra M, Bundy 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P, Dinning L, Rahman S, Ray S, Dimicri C, Guppy S, Nielsen H, Vogel C, Ariza C, Morales L, Chang Y, Gabbay R, Ambrocio L, Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk. Diabetes Care 2018; 41:1887-1894. [PMID: 30002199 PMCID: PMC6105323 DOI: 10.2337/dc18-0087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2018] [Accepted: 06/06/2018] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables. RESULTS Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria J. Redondo
- Texas Children’s Hospital, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | | | - Andrea K. Steck
- Barbara Davis Center for Childhood Diabetes, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO
| | - Seth Sharp
- Institute of Biomedical and Clinical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, U.K
| | - John M. Wentworth
- Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael N. Weedon
- Institute of Biomedical and Clinical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, U.K
| | | | | | | | | | - Richard A. Oram
- Institute of Biomedical and Clinical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, U.K
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Calle EE, Heath CW, Miracle-McMahill HL, Coates RJ, Liff JM, Franceschi S, Talamini R, Chantarakul N, Koetsawang S, Rachawat D, Morabia A, Schuman L, Stewart W, Szklo M, Bain C, Schofield F, Siskind V, Band P, Coldman AJ, Gallagher RP, Hislop TG, Yang P, Duffy SW, Kolonel LM, Nomura AMY, Oberle MW, Ory HW, Peterson HB, Wilson HG, Wingo PA, Ebeling K, Kunde D, Nishan P, Colditz G, Martin N, Pardthaisong T, Silpisornkosol S, Theetranont C, Boosiri B, Chutivongse S, Jimakorn P, Virutamasen P, Wongsrichanalai C, McMichael AJ, Rohan T, Ewertz M, Paul C, Skegg DCG, Spears GFS, Boyle P, Evstifeeva T, Daling JR, Malone K, Noonan EA, Stanford JL, Thomas DB, Weiss NS, White E, Andrieu N, Brêmond A, Clavel F, Gairard B, Lansac J, Piana L, Renaud R, Fine SRP, Cuevas HR, Ontiveros P, Palet A, Salazar SB, Aristizabel N, Cuadros A, Bachelot A, Leê MG, Deacon J, Peto J, Taylor CN, Alfandary E, Modan B, Ron E, Friedman GD, Hiatt RA, Bishop T, Kosmelj K, Primic-Zakelj M, Ravnihar B, Stare J, Beeson WL, Fraser G, Allen DS, Bulbrook RD, Cuzick J, Fentiman IS, Hayward JL, Wang DY, Hanson RL, Leske MC, Mahoney MC, Nasca PC, Varma AO, Weinstein AL, Moller TR, Olsson H, Ranstam J, Goldbohm RA, van den Brandt PA, Apelo RA, Baens J, de la Cruz JR, Javier B, Lacaya LB, Ngelangel CA, La Vecchia C, Negri E, Marbuni E, Ferraroni M, Gerber M, Richardson S, Segala C, Gatei D, Kenya P, Kungu A, Mati JG, Brinton LA, Hoover R, Schairer C, Spirtas R, Lee HP, Rookus MA, van Leeuwen FE, Schoenberg JA, Gammon MD, Clarke EA, Jones L, McPherson K, Neil A, Vessey M, Yeates D, Beral V, Bull D, Crossley B, Hermon C, Jones S, Key T, Reeves CG, Smith P, Collins R, Doll R, Peto R, Hannaford P, Kay C, Rosero-Bixby L, Yuan JM, Wei HY, Yun T, Zhiheng C, Berry G, Booth JC, Jelihovsky T, Maclennan R, Shearman R, Wang QS, Baines CJ, Miller AB, Wall C, Lund E, Stalsberg H, Dabancens A, Martinez L, Molina R, Salas O, Alexander FE, Hulka BS, Chilvers CED, Bernstein L, Haile RW, Paganini-Hill A, Pike MC, Ross RK, Ursin G, Yu MC, Adami HO, Bergstrom R, Longnecker MP, Farley TMN, Holck S, Meirik O. Breast cancer and hormonal contraceptives: further results. Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer. Contraception 1996; 54:1S-106S. [PMID: 8899264 DOI: 10.1016/s0010-7824(15)30002-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
The Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer has brought together and reanalysed the worldwide epidemiological evidence on breast cancer risk and use of hormonal contraceptives. Original data from 54 studies, representing about 90% of the information available on the topic, were collected, checked and analysed centrally. The 54 studies were performed in 26 countries and include a total of 53,297 women with breast cancer and 100,239 women without breast cancer. The studies were varied in their design, setting and timing. Most information came from case-control studies with controls chosen from the general population; most women resided in Europe or North America and most cancers were diagnosed during the 1980s. Overall 41% of the women with breast cancer and 40% of the women without breast cancer had used oral contraceptives at some time; the median age at first use was 26 years, the median duration of use was 3 years, the median year of first use was 1968, the median time since first use was 16 years, and the median time since last use was 9 years. The main findings, summarised elsewhere, are that there is a small increase in the risk of having breast cancer diagnosed in current users of combined oral contraceptives and in women who had stopped use in the past 10 years but that there is no evidence of an increase in the risk more than 10 years after stopping use. In addition, the cancers diagnosed in women who had used oral contraceptives tended to be less advanced clinically than the cancers diagnosed in women who had not used them. Despite the large number of possibilities investigated, few factors appeared to modify the main findings either in recent or in past users. For recent users who began use before age 20 the relative risks are higher than for recent users who began at older ages. For women whose use of oral contraceptives ceased more than 10 years before there was some suggestion of a reduction in breast cancer risk in certain subgroups, with a deficit of tumors that had spread beyond the breast, especially among women who had used preparations containing the highest doses of oestrogen and progestogen. These findings are unexpected and need to be confirmed. Although these data represent most of the epidemiological evidence on the topic to date, there is still insufficient information to comment reliably about the effects of specific types of oestrogen or of progestogen. What evidence there is suggests, however, no major differences in the effects for specific types of oestrogen or of progestogen and that the pattern of risk associated with use of hormonal contraceptives containing progestogens alone may be similar to that observed for preparations containing both oestrogens and progestogens. On the basis of these results, there is little difference between women who have and have not used combined oral contraceptives in terms of the estimated cumulative number of breast cancers diagnosed during the period from starting use up to 20 years after stopping. The cancers diagnosed in women who have used oral contraceptives are, however, less advanced clinically than the cancers diagnosed in never users. Further research is needed to establish whether the associations described here are due to earlier diagnosis of breast cancer in women who have used oral contraceptives, to the biological effects of the hormonal contraceptives or to a combination of both. Little information is as yet available about the effects on breast cancer risk of oral contraceptive use that ceased more than 20 years before and as such data accumulate it will be necessary to re-examine the worldwide evidence.
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