Adequacy and Distribution Equity of Nutrition Supplies across China

Procuring food enriched with diverse nutrients is pivotal for maintaining a robust immune system. However, the food system is now unprecedentedly globalized and faces challenges arising from climate change, pandemics, and political unrest. This study aims to illuminate the gap in exploring the adequacy and distribution equity of nutrition supplies in response to potential trade fluctuations and restrictions on agrifood within China's local agriculture endowments. Also, it seeks to identify the role of trade in contributing to these indices. Accordingly, we analyzed the distribution of nutrients in agrifood categories from production to consumption and assessed the adequacy and distribution equity of corresponding available nutrition supply from the local food provision system in terms of meeting residents' nutritional requirements, across China, and compared with those in the practical market. The local self-supply system showed that 12 out of 31 provinces have difficulty achieving an iron supply with 11% to 108% deficiencies. Except for iron, 52% (folate)-90% (vitamin B12) of agricultural output was available for diet provisioning nationwide. While food trade emerges as a crucial factor in enhancing secure and equitable nutrition supply, risks associated with micronutrient deficiencies necessitate careful consideration in current global circumstances. Our analysis explored a regional pool of nutrient information in supplements to the conventional food profile in China and could implicate better knowledge toward healthier food supplies and tailored improvements for achieving a resilient nutrition supply.

Decreasing resilience of China's coupled nitrogen-phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action

The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N-P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in resilience between 1980 and 2020, with further decreases expected by 2060 across different socio-economic pathways. Under a clean energy scenario with additional N and P demand, the resilience of the N-P-coupled cycling network would suffer considerably, especially in the N layer. China's socio-economic system may also see greater N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle and amplifying the conflict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings on scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs can aid the management of N- and P-cycling networks in China by reducing chemical fertilizer use and food waste, for example.

Countries' vulnerability to food supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war from a trade dependency perspective

Disruptions of key food and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine have exposed many countries to challenges accessing some commodities since these countries' war began. We evaluated the short-term, external, and direct impacts of disruptions of six food commodities and three types of fertilizer supplies from Russia and Ukraine on food access for all trading partners of the two countries by applying a set of trade and socioeconomic indicators. We found that the external food supplies of 279 countries and territories were affected to varying degrees; 24 countries-especially Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Mongolia-are extremely vulnerable because they depend almost entirely on a variety of food imports from Russia and Ukraine. Access to fertilizers was affected in 136 countries and territories, particularly Estonia (potassic fertilizer), Mongolia (nitrogenous fertilizers), Kazakhstan (mixed fertilizers), and Brazil, the United States, China, and India (all types of fertilizers). An integrated assessment of countries' import types, purchasing power parity per capita, and populations indicated that the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Pakistan are most vulnerable to such supply disruptions. Development of research into diversification and decentralization strategies for food access is needed to guide stable food supply policies.

Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world's CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6,541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010-2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages.

Food Nitrogen Footprint of the Indian Subcontinent Toward 2050

Substantial loss of nitrogen (N) in reactive forms (nitrogen species except for N₂) induced by agro–food system is a cause of the environmental degradation and harms human health. The main factors influencing the food N footprint of the Indian Subcontinent (ISC) are the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of crop cultivation and religious dietary cultures. In this study, we assess the food N footprint of the ISC and establish reduction scenarios toward 2050. We used a religion-sensitive N-Calculator method and food consumption data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to estimate the food N footprint of the ISC of different religious communities. We developed four reduction scenarios as follows: The business-as-usual scenario; a 30% increase in the crop cultivation NUE; altered protein supplies to the healthy EAT–Lancet reference diet considering religious food taboos; and an integrated approach with a 30% increase in the NUE increase and the altered diet. We used the long short-term memory recurrent neural network approach to predict the future. The study revealed that the average food N footprint per-capita per-year increased from 7.94 kg-N in the 1960s to 8.43 kg-N in the early 2010s, and the crop cultivation NUE was reduced to less than 40%. Buddhists had the lowest footprint over the period. An increase in the NUE of the crop cultivation and an altered diet results in a 13% reduction in the N footprint compared to the business-as-usual scenario. We conclude that improved crop cultivation NUEs and an altered religion-specific healthy diet would reduce the N footprint.

The Effect of Religious Dietary Cultures on Food Nitrogen and Phosphorus Footprints: A Case Study of India

The excessive consumption of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), two vital nutrients for living organisms, is associated with negative environmental and health impacts. While food production contributes to a large amount of N and P loss to the environment, very little N and P is consumed as food. Food habits are affected by multiple regulations, including the dietary restrictions and dictates of various religions. In this study, religion-sensitive N-Calculator and P-Calculator approaches were used to determine the impact of religious dietary culture on the food N and P footprints of India in the major religious communities. Using 2013 data, the food N footprint of Hindus, Muslims, Christians, and Buddhists was 10.70, 11.45, 11.47, and 7.39 kg-N capita-1 year-1 (10.82 kg-N capita-1 year-1 was the national average), and the food P footprint was 1.46, 1.58, 1.04. and 1.58 kg-P capita-1 year-1 (1.48 kg-P capita-1 year-1 was the national average). The findings highlight the impact of individual choice on the N and P food footprints, and the importance of encouraging the followers of religion to follow a diet consistent with the food culture of that religion. The results of this study are a clear indication of the requirement for religion-sensitive analyses in the collecting of data pertinent to a particular country for use in making government policies designed to improve the recycling of food waste and the treatment of wastewater.

Mining, land restoration and sustainable development in isolated islands: An industrial ecology perspective on extractive transitions on Nauru

In this empirically grounded perspective, we explore how, if managed correctly, mining might go beyond a straight conversion of finite natural capital to financial resources. We suggest a process where mineral extraction could act as a catalyst for more diversified growth and even serve as a basis to restore forms of 'natural capital' it had previously diminished. The case in point-small in scale but significant in consequence-is the particularly challenging instance of the small-island state of Nauru, which has a very negative history of socio-ecological impacts of phosphate mining. Yet, the degraded landscape requires capital investment which could be reaped from restoration of the land using revenues generated from exporting the waste rock pinnacles as branded household counter-tops and pavement stone products with an "island provenance premium". Furthermore, we use an industrial ecology method to show that Nauru's secondary phosphate can be shown to be less environmentally impactful than comparable phosphate from other sources. This has potential for further "green branding" of the Island's products. We contend that implementing such a restoration approach that harnesses the remaining mineral capital with care has the potential, to diversify the island's economy from one dependent on extractive industries and donors to agroforestry, fishing and tourism. A holistic approach is offered that considers prudent use of Nauru's remaining mineral resources towards an agenda of ecological restoration and economic diversification that will allow the island to prosper after the phosphates it has traditionally relied upon are depleted.

Global Distribution of Used and Unused Extracted Materials Induced by Consumption of Iron, Copper, and Nickel

In today's global economy, sustainable resource management requires a consumption perspective of resource use and insight into actual resource use through the global supply chain. The estimated global amount of used and unused extraction caused by mineral extraction of iron, copper, and nickel more than doubled from 1990 to 2013 (iron, 2.8-6.7 Pg; copper, 2.7-5.5 Pg; nickel, 0.19-0.60 Pg). By incorporating global material flow into a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional IO model), we estimated the total used and unused extraction caused by iron, copper, and nickel mining induced by Japanese final demand to be 0.44, 0.52, and 0.043 Pg in 2011, respectively, equivalent to 7.1% of the total global extraction amount caused by iron mining, 11% of the amount caused by copper mining, and 10% of the amount caused by nickel mining. Whereas the world extraction total caused by iron, copper, and nickel mining rapidly increased from 2005 to 2011, the extraction amount induced by Japanese final demand for the same period either stayed about the same (iron) or decreased slightly (copper, 99% of the 2005 amount; nickel, 92%).

Optimal Recycling of Steel Scrap and Alloying Elements: Input-Output based Linear Programming Method with Its Application to End-of-Life Vehicles in Japan

Importance of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) as an urban mine is expected to grow, as more people in developing countries are experiencing increased standards of living, while the automobiles are increasingly made using high-quality materials to meet stricter environmental and safety requirements. While most materials in ELVs, particularly steel, have been recycled at high rates, quality issues have not been adequately addressed due to the complex use of automobile materials, leading to considerable losses of valuable alloying elements. This study highlights the maximal potential of quality-oriented recycling of ELV steel, by exploring the utilization methods of scrap, sorted by parts, to produce electric-arc-furnace-based crude alloy steel with minimal losses of alloying elements. Using linear programming on the case of Japanese economy in 2005, we found that adoption of parts-based scrap sorting could result in the recovery of around 94-98% of the alloying elements occurring in parts scrap (manganese, chromium, nickel, and molybdenum), which may replace 10% of the virgin sources in electric arc furnace-based crude alloy steel production.

Global land-use change hidden behind nickel consumption

Economic growth is associated with a rapid rise in the use of natural resources within the economy, and has potential environmental impacts at local and/or global scales. In today's globalized economy, each country has indirect flows supporting its economic activities, and natural resource consumption through supply chains influences environmental impacts far removed from the place of consumption. One way to control environmental impacts associated with consumption of natural resources is to identify the consumption of natural resources and the associated environmental impacts through the global supply chain. In this study, we used a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional input-output model) to detect the linkages between national nickel consumption and mining-associated global land-use changes. We focused on nickel, whose global demand has risen rapidly in recent years, as a case study. The estimated area of land-use change around the world caused by nickel mining in 2005 was 1.9km², and that induced by Japanese final demand for nickel was 0.38km². Our modeling also revealed that the areas of greatest land-use change associated with nickel mining were concentrated in only a few countries and regions far removed from the place of consumption. For example, 57.7% of the world's land-use changes caused by nickel mining were concentrated in five countries in 2005: Australia, 13.7%; Russia, 12.9%; Indonesia, 12.5%; New Caledonia, 10.4%; and Colombia, 8.2%. The mining-associated land-use change induced by Japanese final demand accounted for 19.5% of the total area affected by land-use change caused by nickel mining. The top three countries accounted for 70.6% (Indonesia: 47.0%, New Caledonia: 16.0%, and Australia: 7.7%), and the top five accounted for 82.4% (the Philippines: 7.5%, and Canada: 4.3%, in addition to the top three countries and regions).

Nitrogen footprints: Regional realities and options to reduce nitrogen loss to the environment

Nitrogen (N) management presents a sustainability dilemma: N is strongly linked to energy and food production, but excess reactive N causes environmental pollution. The N footprint is an indicator that quantifies reactive N losses to the environment from consumption and production of food and the use of energy. The average per capita N footprint (calculated using the N-Calculator methodology) of ten countries varies from 15 to 47 kg N capita^-1 year^-1. The major cause of the difference is the protein consumption rates and food production N losses. The food sector dominates all countries' N footprints. Global connections via trade significantly affect the N footprint in countries that rely on imported foods and feeds. The authors present N footprint reduction strategies (e.g., improve N use efficiency, increase N recycling, reduce food waste, shift dietary choices) and identify knowledge gaps (e.g., the N footprint from nonfood goods and soil N process).

Innovations in steelmaking technology and hidden phosphorus flows

This article will outline the historical transition in the flow of phosphorus in steelmaking technology, and examine the current and future phosphorus flow in steel production and the peripheral steelmaking processes. History provides many instances of innovative changes in steelmaking processes driven by various issues associated with raw materials which emerged over time, such as supply, quality and cost issues. The major steel countries with a long history, including Sweden and Japan, have shown flexibility in their ability to adapt to the changes in the value of resources and geopolitical conditions over times, and have enacted survival resource utilization measures over many centuries, leading to improvements in their respective steelmaking processes. Considering these success stories, it stands to reason that the ideal state of steelmaking is one with a clear stance with regard to resource policy.

Thermodynamic Analysis for the Refining Ability of Salt Flux for Aluminum Recycling

The removability of impurities during the aluminum remelting process by oxidation was previously investigated by our research group. In the present work, alternative impurity removal with chlorination has been evaluated by thermodynamic analysis. For 43 different elements, equilibrium distribution ratios among metal, chloride flux and oxide slag phases in the aluminum remelting process were calculated by assuming the binary systems of aluminum and an impurity element. It was found that the removability of impurities isn’t significantly affected by process parameters such as chloride partial pressure, temperature and flux composition. It was shown that Ho, Dy, Li, La, Mg, Gd, Ce, Yb, Ca and Sr can be potentially eliminated into flux by chlorination from the remelted aluminum. Chlorination and oxidation are not effective to remove other impurities from the melting aluminum, due to the limited parameters which can be controlled during the remelting process. It follows that a proper management of aluminum scrap such as sorting based on the composition of the products is important for sustainable aluminum recycling.

MaTrace: tracing the fate of materials over time and across products in open-loop recycling

Even for metals, open-loop recycling is more common than closed-loop recycling due, among other factors, to the degradation of quality in the end-of-life (EoL) phase. Open-loop recycling is subject to loss of functionality of original materials, dissipation in forms that are difficult to recover, and recovered metals might need dilution with primary metals to meet quality requirements. Sustainable management of metal resources calls for the minimization of these losses. Imperative to this is quantitative tracking of the fate of materials across different stages, products, and losses. A new input-output analysis (IO) based model of dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) is presented that can trace the fate of materials over time and across products in open-loop recycling taking explicit consideration of losses and the quality of scrap into account. Application to car steel recovered from EoL vehicles (ELV) showed that after 50 years around 80% of the steel is used in products, mostly buildings and civil engineering (infrastructure), with the rest mostly resided in unrecovered obsolete infrastructure and refinery losses. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effects of changes in product lifespan, and the quality of scrap.

Simultaneous material flow analysis of nickel, chromium, and molybdenum used in alloy steel by means of input-output analysis

Steel is not elemental iron but rather a group of iron-based alloys containing many elements, especially chromium, nickel, and molybdenum. Steel recycling is expected to promote efficient resource use. However, open-loop recycling of steel could result in quality loss of nickel and molybdenum and/or material loss of chromium. Knowledge about alloying element substance flow is needed to avoid such losses. Material flow analyses (MFAs) indicate the importance of steel recycling to recovery of alloying elements. Flows of nickel, chromium, and molybdenum are interconnected, but MFAs have paid little attention to the interconnected flow of materials/substances in supply chains. This study combined a waste input-output material flow model and physical unit input-output analysis to perform a simultaneous MFA for nickel, chromium, and molybdenum in the Japanese economy in 2000. Results indicated the importance of recovery of these elements in recycling policies for end-of-life (EoL) vehicles and constructions. Improvement in EoL sorting technologies and implementation of designs for recycling/disassembly at the manufacturing phase are needed. Possible solutions include development of sorting processes for steel scrap and introduction of easier methods for identifying the composition of secondary resources. Recovery of steel scrap with a high alloy content will reduce primary inputs of alloying elements and contribute to more efficient resource use.

Quality- and dilution losses in the recycling of ferrous materials from end-of-life passenger cars: input-output analysis under explicit consideration of scrap quality

Metals can in theory be infinitely recycled in a closed-loop without any degradation in quality. In reality, however, open-loop recycling is more typical for metal scrap recovered from end-of-life (EoL) products because mixing of different metal species results in scrap quality that no longer matches the originals. Further losses occur when meeting the quality requirement of the target product requires dilution of the secondary material by adding high purity materials. Standard LCA usually does not address these losses. This paper presents a novel approach to quantifying quality- and dilution losses, by means of hybrid input-output analysis. We focus on the losses associated with the recycling of ferrous materials from end-of-life vehicle (ELV) due to the mixing of copper, a typical contaminant in steel recycling. Given the quality of scrap in terms of copper density, the model determines the ratio by which scrap needs to be diluted in an electric arc furnace (EAF), and the amount of demand for EAF steel including those quantities needed for dilution. Application to a high-resolution Japanese IO table supplemented with data on ferrous materials including different grades of scrap indicates that a nationwide avoidance of these losses could result in a significant reduction of CO(2) emissions.

Thermodynamic estimation of minor element distribution between immiscible liquids in Fe-Cu-based metal phase generated in melting treatment of municipal solid wastes

Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has become an important target in managing material cycles from the viewpoint of not only waste management and control of environmental pollution but also resource conservation. This study investigated the distribution tendency of trace elements in municipal solid waste (MSW) or incinerator ash, including valuable non-ferrous metals (Ni, Co, Cr, Mn, Mo, Ti, V, W, Zr), precious group metals (PGMs) originated from WEEE (Ag, Au, Pd, Pt), and others (Al, B, Pb, Si), between Fe-rich and Cu-rich metal phases by means of simple thermodynamic calculations. Most of the typical alloying elements for steel (Co, Cr, Mo, Nb, Ni, Si, Ti, V, and W) and Rh were preferentially distributed into the Fe-rich phase. PGMs, such as Au, Ag, and Pd, were enriched in the Cu-rich phase, whereas Pt was almost equally distributed into both phases. Since the primary metallurgical processing of Cu is followed by an electrolysis for refining, and since PGMs in crude copper have been industrially recovered from the resulting anode slime, our results indicated that Ag, Au, and Pd could be effectively recovered from MSW if the Cu-rich phase could be selectively collected.

Virtual phosphorus ore requirement of Japanese economy

Phosphorus is indispensable for agricultural production. Hence, the consumption of imported food indirectly implies the import of phosphorus resources. The global consumption of agricultural products depends on a small number of ore-producing countries. For sustainable management of phosphorus resources, the global supply and demand network should be clarified. In this study, we propose the virtual phosphorus ore requirement as a new indicator of the direct and indirect phosphorus requirements for our society. The virtual phosphorus ore requirement indicates the direct and indirect demands for phosphorus ore transformed into agricultural products and fertilizer. In this study, the virtual phosphorus ore requirement was evaluated for the Japanese economy in 2005. Importantly, the results show that our society requires twice as much phosphorus ore as the domestic demand for fertilizer production. The phosphorus contained in "eaten" agricultural products was only 12% of virtual phosphorus ore requirement.

Thermodynamic analysis for the controllability of elements in the recycling process of metals

This study presents the results of chemical thermodynamic analysis on the distribution of elements in the smelting process of metallic materials to examine the controllability of impurities in the pyrometallurgical technique. The results of the present work can give an answer against the frequently given question; "Which impurity element can be removable in metallurgical process?" or "How far can the impurity level be controlled?". The proposed method was applied to estimate the distribution of 29 elements for a copper converter and 26 elements for a steel-making process and shows the distribution tendency of elements among the gas, slag, and metal phases as well as clarifying which metals can be recovered or removed from secondary resources in metallurgical processes. The effects of temperature, oxygen partial pressure, and slag composition on the distribution ratio of elements were also evaluated, and the removal limit or controllability of impurity in these two processes was presented. This study results in thermodynamic features of various elements in the pyrometallurgical process and also shows, even by varying process parameters such as temperature and oxygen partial pressure, no drastic improvement of removal efficiency should be expected, except for lead and tin in copper.

Thermodynamic criteria for the removal of impurities from end-of-life magnesium alloys by evaporation and flux treatment

In this paper, the possibility of removing impurities during magnesium recycling with pyrometallurgical techniques has been evaluated by using a thermodynamic analysis. For 25 different elements that are likely to be contained in industrial magnesium alloys, the equilibrium distribution ratios between the metal, slag and gas phases in the magnesium remelting process were calculated assuming binary systems of magnesium and an impurity element. It was found that calcium, gadolinium, lithium, ytterbium and yttrium can be removed from the remelted end-of-life (EoL) magnesium products by oxidization. Calcium, cerium, gadolinium, lanthanum, lithium, plutonium, sodium, strontium and yttrium can be removed by chlorination with a salt flux. However, the other elements contained in magnesium alloy scrap are scarcely removed and this may contribute toward future contamination problems. The third technological option for the recycling of EoL magnesium products is magnesium recovery by a distillation process. Based on thermodynamic considerations, it is predicted that high-purity magnesium can be recovered through distillation because of its high vapor pressure, yet there is a limit on recoverability that depends on the equilibrium vapor pressure of the alloying elements and the large energy consumption. Therefore, the sustainable recycling of EoL magnesium products should be an important consideration in the design of advanced magnesium alloys or the development of new refining processes.

UPIOM: a new tool of MFA and its application to the flow of iron and steel associated with car production

Identification of the flow of materials and substances associated with a product system provides useful information for Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), and contributes to extending the scope of complementarity between LCA and Materials Flow Analysis/Substances Flow Analysis (MFA/SFA), the two major tools of industrial ecology. This paper proposes a new methodology based on input-output analysis for identifying the physical input-output flow of individual materials that is associated with the production of a unit of given product, the unit physical input-output by materials (UPIOM). While the Sankey diagram has been a standard tool for the visualization of MFA/SFA, with an increase in the complexity of the flows under consideration, which will be the case when economy-wide intersectoral flows of materials are involved, the Sankey diagram may become too complex for effective visualization. An alternative way to visually represent material flows is proposed which makes use of triangulation of the flow matrix based on degrees of fabrication. The proposed methodology is applied to the flow of pig iron and iron and steel scrap that are associated with the production of a passenger car in Japan. Its usefulness to identify a specific MFA pattern from the original IO table is demonstrated.

Thermodynamic analysis of contamination by alloying elements in aluminum recycling

In previous studies on the physical chemistry of pyrometallurgical processing of aluminum scrap, only a limited number of thermodynamic parameters, such as the Gibbs free energy change of impurity reactions and the variation of activity of an impurity in molten aluminum, were taken into account. In contrast, in this study we thermodynamically evaluated the quantitative removal limit of impurities during the remelting of aluminum scrap; all relevant parameters, such as the total pressure, the activity coefficient of the target impurity, the temperature, the oxygen partial pressure, and the activity coefficient of oxidation product, were considered. For 45 elements that usually occur in aluminum products, the distribution ratios among the metal, slag, and gas phases in the aluminum remelting process were obtained. Our results show that, except for elements such as Mg and Zn, most of the impurities occurred as troublesome tramp elements that are difficult to remove, and our results also indicate that the extent to which the process parameters such as oxygen partial pressure, temperature, and flux composition can be changed in aluminum production is quite limited compared to that for iron and copper production, owing to aluminum's relatively low melting point and strong affinity for oxygen. Therefore, the control of impurities in the disassembly process and the quality of scrap play important roles in suppressing contamination in aluminum recycling.