1
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Lopez VK, Cramer EY, Pagano R, Drake JM, O'Dea EB, Adee M, Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller PP, Xiao J, Bracher J, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Ray EL, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Pei S, Shaman J, Yamana TK, Tarasewicz SR, Wilson DJ, Baccam S, Gurung H, Stage S, Suchoski B, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang L, Wang Y, Yu S, Gardner L, Jindal S, Marshall M, Nixon K, Dent J, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Lee EC, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Smith CP, Truelove S, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Karlen D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Osthus D, Bian J, Cao W, Gao Z, Lavista Ferres J, Li C, Liu TY, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Walraven R, Chen J, Gu Q, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Gibson GC, Sheldon D, Srivastava A, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis B, Marathe M, Peddireddy AS, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Wang L, Prasad PV, Walker JW, Webber AE, Slayton RB, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG, Johansson MA. Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011200. [PMID: 38709852 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Velma K Lopez
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Estee Y Cramer
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Robert Pagano
- Unaffiliated, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
| | - John M Drake
- University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Eamon B O'Dea
- University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Madeline Adee
- Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Turgay Ayer
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Jagpreet Chhatwal
- Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Ozden O Dalgic
- Value Analytics Labs, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Mary A Ladd
- Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Benjamin P Linas
- Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Peter P Mueller
- Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jade Xiao
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Johannes Bracher
- Chair of Econometrics and Statistics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
| | | | - Aaron Gerding
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Tilmann Gneiting
- Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Yuxin Huang
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Dasuni Jayawardena
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Abdul H Kanji
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Khoa Le
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Anja Mühlemann
- Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Jarad Niemi
- Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, United States of America
| | - Evan L Ray
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Ariane Stark
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Yijin Wang
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Nutcha Wattanachit
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Martha W Zorn
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Sen Pei
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Teresa K Yamana
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Samuel R Tarasewicz
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Daniel J Wilson
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Sid Baccam
- IEM, Bel Air, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Heidi Gurung
- IEM, Bel Air, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Steve Stage
- IEM, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | | | - Lei Gao
- George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Zhiling Gu
- Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, United States of America
| | - Myungjin Kim
- Kyungpook National University, Bukgu, Daegu, Republic of Korea
| | - Xinyi Li
- Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, United States of America
| | - Guannan Wang
- College of William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Lily Wang
- George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Yueying Wang
- Amazon, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Shan Yu
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Lauren Gardner
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Sonia Jindal
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Kristen Nixon
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Juan Dent
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Alison L Hill
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Joshua Kaminsky
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth C Lee
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Justin Lessler
- Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Claire P Smith
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Shaun Truelove
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Matt Kinsey
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Luke C Mullany
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Lauren Shin
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Katharine Tallaksen
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Shelby Wilson
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Dean Karlen
- University of Victoria and TRIUMF, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lauren Castro
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Geoffrey Fairchild
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Isaac Michaud
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Dave Osthus
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Jiang Bian
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Wei Cao
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Zhifeng Gao
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | | | - Chaozhuo Li
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Tie-Yan Liu
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Xing Xie
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Shun Zhang
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Shun Zheng
- Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
| | - Matteo Chinazzi
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jessica T Davis
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Kunpeng Mu
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Ana Pastore Y Piontti
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Alessandro Vespignani
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Xinyue Xiong
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | | | - Jinghui Chen
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Quanquan Gu
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Lingxiao Wang
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Pan Xu
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Weitong Zhang
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Difan Zou
- University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Graham Casey Gibson
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Daniel Sheldon
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Ajitesh Srivastava
- University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Aniruddha Adiga
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Benjamin Hurt
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Gursharn Kaur
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Bryan Lewis
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Madhav Marathe
- University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | | | | | | | - Lijing Wang
- New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Pragati V Prasad
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Jo W Walker
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Alexander E Webber
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Rachel B Slayton
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Nicholas G Reich
- University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Michael A Johansson
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Dong E, Nixon K, Gardner LM. A population level study on the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination rates at the U.S. county level. Sci Rep 2024; 14:4277. [PMID: 38383706 PMCID: PMC10881504 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54441-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Multiple COVID-19 vaccines were proven to be safe and effective in curbing severe illness, but despite vaccine availability, vaccination rates were relatively low in the United States (U.S.). To better understand factors associated with low COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the U.S., our study provides a comprehensive, data-driven population-level statistical analysis at the county level. We find that political affiliation, as determined by the proportion of votes received by the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, has the strongest association with our response variable, the percent of the population that received no COVID-19 vaccine. The next strongest association was median household income, which has a negative association. The percentage of Black people and the average number of vehicles per household are positively associated with the percent unvaccinated. In contrast, COVID-19 infection rate, percentage of Latinx people, postsecondary education percentage, median age, and prior non-COVID-19 childhood vaccination coverage are negatively associated with percent unvaccinated. Unlike previous studies, we do not find significant relationships between cable TV news viewership or Twitter misinformation variables with COVID-19 vaccine uptake. These results shed light on some factors that may impact vaccination choice in the U.S. and can be used to target specific populations for educational outreach and vaccine campaign strategies in efforts to increase vaccination uptake.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ensheng Dong
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA.
- Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA.
| | - Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
- Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Lauren M Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
- Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
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Badr HS, Zaitchik BF, Kerr GH, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Hinson P, Colston JM, Kosek MN, Dong E, Du H, Marshall M, Nixon K, Mohegh A, Goldberg DL, Anenberg SC, Gardner LM. Unified real-time environmental-epidemiological data for multiscale modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sci Data 2023; 10:367. [PMID: 37286690 PMCID: PMC10245354 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02276-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023] Open
Abstract
An impressive number of COVID-19 data catalogs exist. However, none are fully optimized for data science applications. Inconsistent naming and data conventions, uneven quality control, and lack of alignment between disease data and potential predictors pose barriers to robust modeling and analysis. To address this gap, we generated a unified dataset that integrates and implements quality checks of the data from numerous leading sources of COVID-19 epidemiological and environmental data. We use a globally consistent hierarchy of administrative units to facilitate analysis within and across countries. The dataset applies this unified hierarchy to align COVID-19 epidemiological data with a number of other data types relevant to understanding and predicting COVID-19 risk, including hydrometeorological data, air quality, information on COVID-19 control policies, vaccine data, and key demographic characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamada S Badr
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Benjamin F Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA.
| | - Gaige H Kerr
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Nhat-Lan H Nguyen
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Yen-Ting Chen
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Patrick Hinson
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Ensheng Dong
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Hongru Du
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Maximilian Marshall
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Arash Mohegh
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
- Health & Exposure Assessment Branch, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, 95812, USA
| | - Daniel L Goldberg
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Susan C Anenberg
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Lauren M Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
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Nixon K, Jindal S, Parker F, Reich NG, Ghobadi K, Lee EC, Truelove S, Gardner L. An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e738-e747. [PMID: 36150782 PMCID: PMC9489063 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00148-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Revised: 06/17/2022] [Accepted: 07/13/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many challenges, from poor data quality to changing policy and human behaviour. To extract practical insight from the large body of COVID-19 modelling literature available, we provide a narrative review with a systematic approach that quantitatively assessed prospective, data-driven modelling studies of COVID-19 in the USA. We analysed 136 papers, and focused on the aspects of models that are essential for decision makers. We have documented the forecasting window, methodology, prediction target, datasets used, and geographical resolution for each study. We also found that a large fraction of papers did not evaluate performance (25%), express uncertainty (50%), or state limitations (36%). To remedy some of these identified gaps, we recommend the adoption of the EPIFORGE 2020 model reporting guidelines and creating an information-sharing system that is suitable for fast-paced infectious disease outbreak science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Sonia Jindal
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Felix Parker
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Nicholas G Reich
- School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
| | - Kimia Ghobadi
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Elizabeth C Lee
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Shaun Truelove
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
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5
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Nixon K, Jindal S, Parker F, Marshall M, Reich NG, Ghobadi K, Lee EC, Truelove S, Gardner L. Real-time COVID-19 forecasting: challenges and opportunities of model performance and translation. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e699-e701. [PMID: 36150779 PMCID: PMC9499327 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00167-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Sonia Jindal
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Felix Parker
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Maximilian Marshall
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Nicholas G Reich
- School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
| | - Kimia Ghobadi
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Elizabeth C Lee
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Shaun Truelove
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
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Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, House KH, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Shah A, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Gu Y, Jain S, Bannur N, Deva A, Kulkarni M, Merugu S, Raval A, Shingi S, Tiwari A, White J, Abernethy NF, Woody S, Dahan M, Fox S, Gaither K, Lachmann M, Meyers LA, Scott JG, Tec M, Srivastava A, George GE, Cegan JC, Dettwiller ID, England WP, Farthing MW, Hunter RH, Lafferty B, Linkov I, Mayo ML, Parno MD, Rowland MA, Trump BD, Zhang-James Y, Chen S, Faraone SV, Hess J, Morley CP, Salekin A, Wang D, Corsetti SM, Baer TM, Eisenberg MC, Falb K, Huang Y, Martin ET, McCauley E, Myers RL, Schwarz T, Sheldon D, Gibson GC, Yu R, Gao L, Ma Y, Wu D, Yan X, Jin X, Wang YX, Chen Y, Guo L, Zhao Y, Gu Q, Chen J, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Biegel H, Lega J, McConnell S, Nagraj VP, Guertin SL, Hulme-Lowe C, Turner SD, Shi Y, Ban X, Walraven R, Hong QJ, Kong S, van de Walle A, Turtle JA, Ben-Nun M, Riley S, Riley P, Koyluoglu U, DesRoches D, Forli P, Hamory B, Kyriakides C, Leis H, Milliken J, Moloney M, Morgan J, Nirgudkar N, Ozcan G, Piwonka N, Ravi M, Schrader C, Shakhnovich E, Siegel D, Spatz R, Stiefeling C, Wilkinson B, Wong A, Cavany S, España G, Moore S, Oidtman R, Perkins A, Kraus D, Kraus A, Gao Z, Bian J, Cao W, Ferres JL, Li C, Liu TY, Xie X, Zhang S, Zheng S, Vespignani A, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Xiong X, Zheng A, Baek J, Farias V, Georgescu A, Levi R, Sinha D, Wilde J, Perakis G, Bennouna MA, Nze-Ndong D, Singhvi D, Spantidakis I, Thayaparan L, Tsiourvas A, Sarker A, Jadbabaie A, Shah D, Della Penna N, Celi LA, Sundar S, Wolfinger R, Osthus D, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Karlen D, Kinsey M, Mullany LC, Rainwater-Lovett K, Shin L, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Lee EC, Dent J, Grantz KH, Hill AL, Kaminsky J, Kaminsky K, Keegan LT, Lauer SA, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, Meredith HR, Perez-Saez J, Shah S, Smith CP, Truelove SA, Wills J, Marshall M, Gardner L, Nixon K, Burant JC, Wang L, Gao L, Gu Z, Kim M, Li X, Wang G, Wang Y, Yu S, Reiner RC, Barber R, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Lim S, Murray C, Pigott D, Gurung HL, Baccam P, Stage SA, Suchoski BT, Prakash BA, Adhikari B, Cui J, Rodríguez A, Tabassum A, Xie J, Keskinocak P, Asplund J, Baxter A, Oruc BE, Serban N, Arik SO, Dusenberry M, Epshteyn A, Kanal E, Le LT, Li CL, Pfister T, Sava D, Sinha R, Tsai T, Yoder N, Yoon J, Zhang L, Abbott S, Bosse NI, Funk S, Hellewell J, Meakin SR, Sherratt K, Zhou M, Kalantari R, Yamana TK, Pei S, Shaman J, Li ML, Bertsimas D, Lami OS, Soni S, Bouardi HT, Ayer T, Adee M, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller P, Xiao J, Wang Y, Wang Q, Xie S, Zeng D, Green A, Bien J, Brooks L, Hu AJ, Jahja M, McDonald D, Narasimhan B, Politsch C, Rajanala S, Rumack A, Simon N, Tibshirani RJ, Tibshirani R, Ventura V, Wasserman L, O’Dea EB, Drake JM, Pagano R, Tran QT, Ho LST, Huynh H, Walker JW, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Reich NG. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2113561119. [PMID: 35394862 PMCID: PMC9169655 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2021] [Accepted: 01/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Estee Y. Cramer
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Evan L. Ray
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Velma K. Lopez
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
| | - Johannes Bracher
- Chair of Econometrics and Statistics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76185 Karlsruhe, Germany
- Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, 69118 Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Aaron Gerding
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Tilmann Gneiting
- Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, 69118 Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Stochastics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 69118 Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Katie H. House
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Yuxin Huang
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Dasuni Jayawardena
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Abdul H. Kanji
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Ayush Khandelwal
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Khoa Le
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Anja Mühlemann
- Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Jarad Niemi
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
| | - Apurv Shah
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Ariane Stark
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Yijin Wang
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Nutcha Wattanachit
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Martha W. Zorn
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | | | - Sansiddh Jain
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Nayana Bannur
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Ayush Deva
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Mihir Kulkarni
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Srujana Merugu
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Alpan Raval
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Siddhant Shingi
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Avtansh Tiwari
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | - Jerome White
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
| | | | - Spencer Woody
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Maytal Dahan
- Texas Advanced Computing Center, Austin, TX 78758
| | - Spencer Fox
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | | | | | - Lauren Ancel Meyers
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - James G. Scott
- Department of Information, Risk, and Operations Management, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Mauricio Tec
- Department of Statistics and Data Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Ajitesh Srivastava
- Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089
| | - Glover E. George
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
| | - Jeffrey C. Cegan
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA 01742
| | - Ian D. Dettwiller
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
| | | | | | - Robert H. Hunter
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
| | - Brandon Lafferty
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
| | - Igor Linkov
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA 01742
| | - Michael L. Mayo
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
| | - Matthew D. Parno
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Hanover, NH 03755
| | | | | | - Yanli Zhang-James
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
| | - Samuel Chen
- School of Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
| | - Stephen V. Faraone
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
| | - Jonathan Hess
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
| | - Christopher P. Morley
- Department of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
| | - Asif Salekin
- Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13207
| | - Dongliang Wang
- Department of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
| | | | - Thomas M. Baer
- Department of Physics, Trinity University, San Antonio, TX 78212
| | - Marisa C. Eisenberg
- Department of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
- Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
- School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
| | - Karl Falb
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
| | - Yitao Huang
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
| | - Emily T. Martin
- School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
| | - Ella McCauley
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
| | - Robert L. Myers
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
| | - Tom Schwarz
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
| | - Daniel Sheldon
- College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Graham Casey Gibson
- School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
| | - Rose Yu
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093
- Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Liyao Gao
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98185
| | - Yian Ma
- Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093
| | - Dongxia Wu
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093
| | - Xifeng Yan
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - Xiaoyong Jin
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - Yu-Xiang Wang
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - YangQuan Chen
- Mechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation Lab, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA 95301
| | - Lihong Guo
- Jilin University, Changchun City, Jilin Province, 130012, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanting Zhao
- University of Science and Technology of China, Heifei, Anhui, 230027, People's Republic of China
| | - Quanquan Gu
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Jinghui Chen
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Lingxiao Wang
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Pan Xu
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Weitong Zhang
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Difan Zou
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Hannah Biegel
- Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
| | - Joceline Lega
- Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
| | | | - V. P. Nagraj
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22911
| | - Stephanie L. Guertin
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22911
| | | | - Stephen D. Turner
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22911
| | - Yunfeng Shi
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12309
| | - Xuegang Ban
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | | | - Qi-Jun Hong
- School for Engineering of Matter, Transport and Energy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287
- School of Engineering, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912
| | | | | | - James A. Turtle
- Infectious Disease Group, Predictive Science, Inc, San Diego, CA 92121
| | - Michal Ben-Nun
- Infectious Disease Group, Predictive Science, Inc, San Diego, CA 92121
| | - Steven Riley
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, W2 1PG London, United Kingdom
| | - Pete Riley
- Infectious Disease Group, Predictive Science, Inc, San Diego, CA 92121
| | | | | | - Pedro Forli
- Oliver Wyman Digital, Oliver Wyman, Sao Paolo, Brazil 04711-904
| | - Bruce Hamory
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, Boston, MA 02110
| | | | - Helen Leis
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | - John Milliken
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | | | - James Morgan
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | | | - Gokce Ozcan
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | - Noah Piwonka
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | - Matt Ravi
- Core Consultant Group, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | - Chris Schrader
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | | | - Daniel Siegel
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | - Ryan Spatz
- Core Consultant Group, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
| | - Chris Stiefeling
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman Digital, Toronto, ON, Canada M5J 0A1
| | | | | | - Sean Cavany
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
| | - Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
| | - Sean Moore
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
| | - Rachel Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637
| | - Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
| | - David Kraus
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Masaryk University, 61137 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Andrea Kraus
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Masaryk University, 61137 Brno, Czech Republic
| | | | | | - Wei Cao
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Alessandro Vespignani
- Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Turin, 10133, Italy
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Matteo Chinazzi
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Jessica T. Davis
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Kunpeng Mu
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Ana Pastore y Piontti
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Xinyue Xiong
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
| | - Andrew Zheng
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Jackie Baek
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Vivek Farias
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
| | - Andreea Georgescu
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Retsef Levi
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
| | - Deeksha Sinha
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Joshua Wilde
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | | | | | | | - Divya Singhvi
- Technology, Operations and Statistics (TOPS) group, Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012
| | | | | | | | - Arnab Sarker
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Ali Jadbabaie
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Devavrat Shah
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Nicolas Della Penna
- Laboratory for Computational Physiology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Leo A. Celi
- Laboratory for Computational Physiology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | | | | | - Dave Osthus
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
| | - Lauren Castro
- Information Systems and Modeling Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
| | - Geoffrey Fairchild
- Information Systems and Modeling Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
| | - Isaac Michaud
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
| | - Dean Karlen
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
- Physical Sciences Division, TRIUMF, Vancouver, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
| | - Matt Kinsey
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
| | - Luke C. Mullany
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
| | | | - Lauren Shin
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
| | | | - Shelby Wilson
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
| | - Elizabeth C. Lee
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Juan Dent
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Kyra H. Grantz
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Alison L. Hill
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21218
| | - Joshua Kaminsky
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | | | - Lindsay T. Keegan
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108
| | - Stephen A. Lauer
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Joseph C. Lemaitre
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Hannah R. Meredith
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Javier Perez-Saez
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Sam Shah
- Unaffiliated, San Francisco, CA 94122
| | - Claire P. Smith
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
| | - Shaun A. Truelove
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
- International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21231
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21231
| | | | - Maximilian Marshall
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
| | - Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
| | - Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
| | | | - Lily Wang
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
| | - Lei Gao
- Department of Finance, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
| | - Zhiling Gu
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
| | - Myungjin Kim
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
| | - Xinyi Li
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634
| | - Guannan Wang
- Department of Mathematics, College of William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187
| | - Yueying Wang
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
| | - Shan Yu
- Department of Statistics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904
| | - Robert C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Ryan Barber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Emmanuela Gakidou
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Steve Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Chris Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - David Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | | | | | | | | | - B. Aditya Prakash
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
| | - Bijaya Adhikari
- Department of Computer Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242
| | - Jiaming Cui
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
| | | | - Anika Tabassum
- Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Falls Church, VA 22043
| | - Jiajia Xie
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
| | - Pinar Keskinocak
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
| | - John Asplund
- Advanced Data Analytics, Metron, Inc., Reston, VA 20190
| | - Arden Baxter
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
| | - Buse Eylul Oruc
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
| | - Nicoleta Serban
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Thomas Tsai
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | | | | | | | - Sam Abbott
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
| | - Nikos I. Bosse
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
| | - Joel Hellewell
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
| | - Sophie R. Meakin
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
| | - Katharine Sherratt
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
| | - Mingyuan Zhou
- McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Rahi Kalantari
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Teresa K. Yamana
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
| | - Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
| | - Michael L. Li
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Dimitris Bertsimas
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
| | - Omar Skali Lami
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Saksham Soni
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Hamza Tazi Bouardi
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Turgay Ayer
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
- Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University Medical School, Atlanta, GA 30322
| | - Madeline Adee
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
| | - Jagpreet Chhatwal
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
| | - Ozden O. Dalgic
- Health Economic Modeling, Value Analytics Labs, 34776 İstanbul, Turkey
| | - Mary A. Ladd
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
| | - Benjamin P. Linas
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118
| | - Peter Mueller
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
| | - Jade Xiao
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
| | - Yuanjia Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
- Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
| | - Qinxia Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
| | - Shanghong Xie
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
| | - Donglin Zeng
- Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Alden Green
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Jacob Bien
- Marshall School of Business, Department of Data Sciences and Operations (DSO), University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089
| | - Logan Brooks
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Addison J. Hu
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Maria Jahja
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Daniel McDonald
- Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Balasubramanian Narasimhan
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
- Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Collin Politsch
- Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Samyak Rajanala
- Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Aaron Rumack
- Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Noah Simon
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Ryan J. Tibshirani
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Rob Tibshirani
- Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Valerie Ventura
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Larry Wasserman
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Eamon B. O’Dea
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602
| | - John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602
| | | | - Quoc T. Tran
- Catalog Data Science, Walmart Inc., Sunnyvale, CA 94085
| | - Lam Si Tung Ho
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Huong Huynh
- Virtual Power System Inc, Milpitas, CA 95035
| | - Jo W. Walker
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
| | - Rachel B. Slayton
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
| | - Michael A. Johansson
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
| | - Nicholas G. Reich
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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Wooden JI, Thompson KR, Guerin SP, Nawarawong NN, Nixon K. Consequences of adolescent alcohol use on adult hippocampal neurogenesis and hippocampal integrity. Int Rev Neurobiol 2021; 160:281-304. [PMID: 34696876 DOI: 10.1016/bs.irn.2021.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Alcohol is the most commonly used drug among adolescents. Their decreased sensitivity to self-regulating cues to stop drinking coincides with an enhanced vulnerability to negative outcomes of excessive drinking. In adolescents, the hippocampus is one brain region that is particularly susceptible to alcohol-induced neurodegeneration. While cell death is causal, alcohol effects on adult neurogenesis also impact hippocampal structure and function. This review describes what little is known about adolescent-specific effects of alcohol on adult neurogenesis and its relationship to hippocampal integrity. For example, alcohol intoxication inhibits neurogenesis persistently in adolescents but produces aberrant neurogenesis after alcohol dependence. Little is known, however, about the role of adolescent-born neurons in hippocampal integrity or the mechanisms of these effects. Understanding the role of neurogenesis in adolescent alcohol use and misuse is critical to our understanding of adolescent susceptibility to alcohol pathology and increased likelihood of developing alcohol problems in adulthood.
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Affiliation(s)
- J I Wooden
- Division of Pharmacology & Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
| | - K R Thompson
- Division of Pharmacology & Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
| | - S P Guerin
- Division of Pharmacology & Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
| | - N N Nawarawong
- Division of Pharmacology & Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
| | - K Nixon
- Division of Pharmacology & Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States.
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Nasser S, Lazaridis A, Evangelou M, Jones B, Nixon K, Kyrgiou M, Gabra H, Rockall A, Fotopoulou C. Correlation of pre-operative CT findings with surgical & histological tumor dissemination patterns at cytoreduction for primary advanced and relapsed epithelial ovarian cancer: A retrospective evaluation. Gynecol Oncol 2016; 143:264-269. [PMID: 27586894 DOI: 10.1016/j.ygyno.2016.08.322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2016] [Revised: 08/15/2016] [Accepted: 08/18/2016] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Computed tomography (CT) is an essential part of preoperative planning prior to cytoreductive surgery for primary and relapsed epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Our aim is to correlate pre-operative CT results with intraoperative surgical and histopathological findings at debulking surgery. METHODS We performed a systematic comparison of intraoperative tumor dissemination patterns and surgical resections with preoperative CT assessments of infiltrative disease at key resection sites, in women who underwent multivisceral debulking surgery due to EOC between January 2013 and December 2014 at a tertiary referral center. The key sites were defined as follows: diaphragmatic involvement(DI), splenic disease (SI), large (LBI) and small (SBI) bowel involvement, rectal involvement (RI), porta hepatis involvement (PHI), mesenteric disease (MI) and lymph node involvement (LNI). RESULTS A total of 155 patients, mostly with FIGO stage IIIC disease (65%) were evaluated (primary=105, relapsed=50). Total macroscopic cytoreduction rates were: 89%. Pre-operative CT findings displayed high specificity across all tumor sites apart from the retroperitoneal lymph node status, with a specificity of 65%. The ability however of the CT to accurately identify sites affected by invasive disease was relatively low with the following sensitivities as relating to final histology: 32% (DI), 26% (SI), 46% (LBI), 44% (SBI), 39% (RI), 57% (PHI), 31% (MI), 63% (LNI). CONCLUSION Pre-operative CT imaging shows high specificity but low sensitivity in detecting tumor involvement at key sites in ovarian cancer surgery. CT findings alone should not be used for surgical decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Nasser
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - A Lazaridis
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - M Evangelou
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Huxley Building, Imperial College, Queen's Gate South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - B Jones
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - K Nixon
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK; Department of Surgery and Cancer, Ovarian Cancer Action Research Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - M Kyrgiou
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK; Department of Surgery and Cancer, Ovarian Cancer Action Research Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - H Gabra
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK; Department of Surgery and Cancer, Ovarian Cancer Action Research Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - A Rockall
- Department of Radiology, Imperial College Cancer Imaging Centre, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK
| | - C Fotopoulou
- West London Gynecological Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK; Department of Surgery and Cancer, Ovarian Cancer Action Research Center, Imperial College London, Du Cane Road, London W12 0HS, UK.
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Pietrzykowski A, Mead E, Wang Y, Thekkumthala A, Hot A, Tejeda L, Collins M, Tajuddin N, Moon KH, Neafsey E, Nixon K, Colombo G, Maccioni P, Lobina C, Loi B, Acciaro C, Zaru A, Carai M, Gessa GL, Klintsova A. O1 * FREE ORAL COMMUNICATIONS 1: BASIC NEUROBIOLOGICAL MECHANISMS OF ALCOHOL ADDICTION. Alcohol Alcohol 2013. [DOI: 10.1093/alcalc/agt095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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Hoit G, Hinkewich C, Tiao J, Porgo V, Moore L, Moore L, Tiao J, Wang C, Moffatt B, Wheeler S, Gillman L, Bartens K, Lysecki P, Pallister I, Patel S, Bradford P, Bradford P, Kidane B, Holmes A, Trajano A, March J, Lyons R, Kao R, Rezende-Neto J, Leblanc Y, Rezende-Neto J, Vogt K, Alzaid S, Jansz G, Andrusiek D, Andrusiek D, Bailey K, Livingston M, Calthorpe S, Hsu J, Lubbert P, Boitano M, Leeper W, Williamson O, Reid S, Alonazi N, Lee C, Rezende-Neto J, Aleassa E, Jennings P, Jennings P, Mador B, Hoffman K, Riley J, Vu E, Alburakan A, Alburakan A, Alburakan A, Mckee J, Bobrovitz N, Gabbe B, Gabbe B, Hodgkinson J, Hodgkinson J, Ali J, Ali J, Grant M, Roberts D, Holodinsky J, Cooper C, Santana M, Kruger K, Hodgkinson J, Waggott M, Da Luz L, Banfield J, Santana M, Dorigatti A, Birn K, Bobrovitz N, Zakirova R, Davies D, Das D, Gamme G, Pervaiz F, Almarhabi Y, Brainard A, Brown R, Bell N, Bell N, Jowett H, Jowett H, Bressan S, Hogan A, Watson I, Woodford S, Hogan A, Boulay R, Watson I, Howlett M, Atkinson P, Chesters A, Hamadani F, Atkinson P, Azzam M, Fraser J, Doucet J, Atkinson P, Muakkassa F, Sathivel N, Chadi S, Joseph B, Takeuchi L, Bradley N, Al Bader B, Kidane B, Harrington A, Nixon K, Veigas P, Joseph B, O’Keeffe T, Bracco D, Rezende-Neto J, Azzam M, Lin Y, Bailey K, Bracco D, Nash N, Alhabboubi M, Slobogean G, Spicer J, Heidary B, Joos E, Berg R, Berg R, Sankarankutty A, Zakrison T, Babul S, Lockhart S, Faux S, Jackson A, Lee T, Bailey K, Pemberton J, Green R, Tallon J, Moore L, Turgeon A, Boutin A, Moore L, Reinartz D, Lapointe G, Turgeon A, Stelfox H, Turgeon A, Nathens A, Neveu X, Stelfox H, Turgeon A, Nathens A, Neveu X, Moore L, Turgeon A, Bratu I, Gladwin C, Voaklander D, Lewis M, Vogt K, Eckert K, Williamson J, Stewart TC, Parry N, Gray D, L’Heureux R, Ziesmann M, Kortbeek J, Brindley P, Hicks C, Fata P, Engels P, Ball C, Paton-Gay D, Widder S, Vogt K, Hernandez-Alejandro R, Gray D, Vanderbeek L, Forrokhyar F, Anatharajah R, Howatt N, Lamb S, Sne N, Kahnamoui K, Lyons R, Walters A, Brooks C, Pinder L, Rahman S, Walters A, Kidane B, Parry N, Donnelly E, Lewell M, Mellow R, Hedges C, Morassutti P, Bulatovic R, Morassutti P, Galbraith E, McKenzie S, Bradford D, Lewell M, Peddle M, Dukelow A, Eby D, McLeod S, Bradford P, Stewart TC, Parry N, Williamson O, Fraga G, Pereira B, Sareen J, Doupe M, Gawaziuk J, Chateau D, Logsetty S, Pallister I, Lewis J, O’Doherty D, Hopkins S, Griffiths S, Palmer S, Gabbe B, Xu X, Martin C, Xenocostas A, Parry N, Mele T, Rui T, Abreu E, Andrade M, Cruz F, Pires R, Carreiro P, Andrade T, Lampron J, Balaa F, Fortuna R, Issa H, Dias P, Marques M, Fernandes T, Sousa T, Inaba K, Smith J, Okoye O, Joos E, Shulman I, Nelson J, Parry N, Rhee P, Demetriades D, Ostrofsky R, Butler-Laporte G, Chughtai T, Khwaja K, Fata P, Mulder D, Razek T, Deckelbaum D, Bailey K, Pemberton J, Evans D, Anton H, Wei J, Randall E, Sobolev B, Scott BB, van Heest R, Frankfurter C, Pemberton J, McKerracher S, Stewart TC, Merritt N, Barber L, Kimmel L, Hodgson C, Webb M, Holland A, Gruen R, Harrison K, Hwang M, Hsee L, Civil I, Muizelaar A, Baillie F, Leeper T, Stewart TC, Gray D, Parry N, Sutherland A, Hart M, Gabbe B, Tuma F, Coates A, Farrokhyar F, Faidi S, Gastaldo F, Paskar D, Reid S, Faidi S, Petrisor B, Bhandari M, Loh WL, Ho C, Chong C, Rodrigues G, Gissoni M, Martins M, Andrade M, Cunha-Melo J, Rizoli S, Abu-Zidan F, Cameron P, Bernard S, Walker T, Jolley D, Fitzgerald M, Masci K, Gabbe B, Simpson P, Smith K, Cox S, Cameron P, Evans D, West A, Barratt L, Rozmovits L, Livingstone B, Vu M, Griesdale D, Schlamp R, Wand R, Alhabboubi M, Alrowaili A, Alghamdi H, Fata P, Essbaiheen F, Alhabboubi M, Fata P, Essbaiheen F, Chankowsky J, Razek T, Stephens M, Vis C, Belton K, Kortbeek J, Bratu I, Dufresne B, Guilfoyle J, Ibbotson G, Martin K, Matheson D, Parks P, Thomas L, Kirkpatrick A, Santana M, Kline T, Kortbeek J, Stelfox H, Lyons R, Macey S, Fitzgerald M, Judson R, Cameron P, Sutherland A, Hart M, Morgan M, McLellan S, Wilson K, Cameron P, Sorvari A, Chaudhry Z, Khawaja K, Ali A, Akhtar J, Zubair M, Nickow J, Sorvari A, Holodinsky J, Jaeschke R, Ball C, Blaser AR, Starkopf J, Zygun D, Kirkpatrick A, Roberts D, Ball C, Blaser AR, Starkopf J, Zygun D, Jaeschke R, Kirkpatrick A, Santana M, Stelfox H, Stelfox H, Rizoli S, Tanenbaum B, Stelfox H, Redondano BR, Jimenez LS, Zago T, de Carvalho RB, Calderan TA, Fraga G, Campbell S, Widder S, Paton-Gay D, Engels P, Ferri M, Santana M, Kline T, Kortbeek J, Stelfox H, Nathens A, Lashoher A, McFarlan A, Ahmed N, Booy J, McDowell D, Nasr A, Wales P, Roberts D, Mercado M, Vis C, Kortbeek J, Kirkpatrick A, Lall R, Stelfox H, Ball C, Niven D, Dixon E, Stelfox H, Kirkpatrick A, Kaplan G, Hameed M, Ball C, Qadura M, Sne N, Reid S, Coates A, Faidi S, Veenstra J, Hennecke P, Gardner R, Appleton L, Sobolev B, Simons R, van Heest R, Hameed M, Sobolev B, Simons R, van Heest R, Hameed M, Palmer C, Bevan C, Crameri J, Palmer C, Hogan D, Grealy L, Bevan C, Palmer C, Jowett H, Boulay R, Chisholm A, Beairsto E, Goulette E, Martin M, Benjamin S, Boulay R, Watson I, Boulay R, Watson I, Watson I, Savoie J, Benjamin S, Martin M, Hogan A, Woodford S, Benjamin S, Chisholm A, Ondiveeran H, Martin M, Atkinson P, Doody K, Fraser J, Leblanc-Duchin D, Strack B, Naveed A, vanRensburg L, Madan R, Atkinson P, Boulva K, Deckelbaum D, Khwaja K, Fata P, Razek T, Fraser J, Verheul G, Parks A, Milne J, Nemeth J, Fata P, Correa J, Deckelbaum D, Bernardin B, Al Bader B, Khwaja K, Razek T, Atkinson P, Benjamin S, Sproul E, Mehta A, Galarneau M, Mahadevan P, Bansal V, Dye J, Hollingsworth-Fridlund P, Stout P, Potenza B, Coimbra R, Madan R, Marley R, Salvator A, Pisciotta D, Bridge J, Lin S, Ovens H, Nathens A, Abdo H, Dencev-Bihari R, Parry N, Lawendy A, Ibrahim-Zada I, Pandit V, Tang A, O’Keeffe T, Wynne J, Gries L, Friese R, Rhee P, Hameed M, Simons R, Taulu T, Wong H, Saleem A, Azzam M, Boulva K, Razek T, Khwaja K, Mulder D, Deckelbaum D, Fata P, Plourde M, Chadi S, Forbes T, Parry N, Martin G, Gaunt K, Bandiera G, Bawazeer M, MacKinnon D, Ahmed N, Spence J, Sankarankutty A, Nascimento B, Rizoli S, Ibrahim-Zada I, Aziz H, Tang A, Friese R, Wynne J, O’keeffe T, Vercruysse G, Kulvatunyou N, Rhee P, Sakles J, Mosier J, Wynne J, Kulvatunyou N, Tang A, Joseph B, Rhee P, Khwaja K, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Razek T, Dias P, Issa H, Fortuna R, Sousa T, Abreu E, Bracco D, Khwaja K, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Razek T, Bracco D, Khwaja K, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Razek T, Norman D, Li J, Pemberton J, Al-Oweis J, Khwaja K, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Razek T, Albuz O, Karamanos E, Vogt K, Okoye O, Talving P, Inaba K, Demetriades D, Elhusseini M, Sudarshan M, Deckelbaum D, Fata P, Razek T, Khwaja K, MacPherson C, Sun T, Pelletier M, Hameed M, Khalil MA, Azzam M, Valenti D, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Razek T, Brown R, Simons R, Evans D, Hameed M, Inaba K, Vogt K, Okoye O, Gelbard R, Moe D, Grabo D, Demetriades D, Inaba K, Karamanos E, Okoye O, Talving P, Demetriades D, Inaba K, Karamanos E, Pasley J, Teixeira P, Talving P, Demetriades D, Fung S, Alababtain I, Brnjac E, Luz L, Nascimento B, Rizoli S, Parikh P, Proctor K, Murtha M, Schulman C, Namias N, Goldman R, Pike I, Korn P, Flett C, Jackson T, Keith J, Joseph T, Giddins E, Ouellet J, Cook M, Schreiber M, Kortbeek J. Trauma Association of Canada (TAC) Annual Scientific Meeting. The Westin Whistler Resort & Spa, Whistler, BC, Thursday, Apr. 11 to Saturday, Apr. 13, 2013Testing the reliability of tools for pediatric trauma teamwork evaluation in a North American high-resource simulation settingThe association of etomidate with mortality in trauma patientsDefinition of isolated hip fractures as an exclusion criterion in trauma centre performance evaluations: a systematic reviewEstimation of acute care hospitalization costs for trauma hospital performance evaluation: a systematic reviewHospital length of stay following admission for traumatic injury in Canada: a multicentre cohort studyPredictors of hospital length of stay following traumatic injury: a multicentre cohort studyInfluence of the heterogeneity in definitions of an isolated hip fracture used as an exclusion criterion in trauma centre performance evaluations: a multicentre cohort studyPediatric trauma, advocacy skills and medical studentsCompliance with the prescribed packed red blood cell, fresh frozen plasma and platelet ratio for the trauma transfusion pathway at a level 1 trauma centreEarly fixed-wing aircraft activation for major trauma in remote areasDevelopment of a national, multi-disciplinary trauma crisis resource management curriculum: results from the pilot courseThe management of blunt hepatic trauma in the age of angioembolization: a single centre experienceEarly predictors of in-hospital mortality in adult trauma patientsThe impact of open tibial fracture on health service utilization in the year preceding and following injuryA systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy of red blood cell transfusion in the trauma populationSources of support for paramedics managing work-related stress in a Canadian EMS service responding to multisystem trauma patientsAnalysis of prehospital treatment of pain in the multisystem trauma patient at a community level 2 trauma centreIncreased mortality associated with placement of central lines during trauma resuscitationChronic pain after serious injury — identifying high risk patientsEpidemiology of in-hospital trauma deaths in a Brazilian university teaching hospitalIncreased suicidality following major trauma: a population-based studyDevelopment of a population-wide record linkage system to support trauma researchInduction of hmgb1 by increased gut permeability mediates acute lung injury in a hemorrhagic shock and resuscitation mouse modelPatients who sustain gunshot pelvic fractures are at increased risk for deep abscess formation: aggravated by rectal injuryAre we transfusing more with conservative management of isolated blunt splenic injury? A retrospective studyMotorcycle clothesline injury prevention: Experimental test of a protective deviceA prospective analysis of compliance with a massive transfusion protocol - activation alone is not enoughAn evaluation of diagnostic modalities in penetrating injuries to the cardiac box: Is there a role for routine echocardiography in the setting of negative pericardial FAST?Achievement of pediatric national quality indicators — an institutional report cardProcess mapping trauma care in 2 regional health authorities in British Columbia: a tool to assist trauma sys tem design and evaluationPatient safety checklist for emergency intubation: a systematic reviewA standardized flow sheet improves pediatric trauma documentationMassive transfusion in pediatric trauma: a 5-year retrospective reviewIs more better: Does a more intensive physiotherapy program result in accelerated recovery for trauma patients?Trauma care: not just for surgeons. Initial impact of implementing a dedicated multidisciplinary trauma team on severely injured patientsThe role of postmortem autopsy in modern trauma care: Do we still need them?Prototype cervical spine traction device for reduction stabilization and transport of nondistraction type cervical spine injuriesGoing beyond organ preservation: a 12-year review of the beneficial effects of a nonoperative management algorithm for splenic traumaAssessing the construct validity of a global disability measure in adult trauma registry patientsThe mactrauma TTL assessment tool: developing a novel tool for assessing performance of trauma traineesA quality improvement approach to developing a standardized reporting format of ct findings in blunt splenic injuriesOutcomes in geriatric trauma: what really mattersFresh whole blood is not better than component therapy (FFP:RBC) in hemorrhagic shock: a thromboelastometric study in a small animal modelFactors affecting mortality of chest trauma patients: a prospective studyLong-term pain prevalence and health related quality of life outcomes for patients enrolled in a ketamine versus morphine for prehospital traumatic pain randomized controlled trialDescribing pain following trauma: predictors of persistent pain and pain prevalenceManagement strategies for hemorrhage due to pelvic trauma: a survey of Canadian general surgeonsMajor trauma follow-up clinic: Patient perception of recovery following severe traumaLost opportunities to enhance trauma practice: culture of interprofessional education and sharing among emergency staffPrehospital airway management in major trauma and traumatic brain injury by critical care paramedicsImproving patient selection for angiography and identifying risk of rebleeding after angioembolization in the nonoperative management of high grade splenic injuriesFactors predicting the need for angioembolization in solid organ injuryProthrombin complex concentrates use in traumatic brain injury patients on oral anticoagulants is effective despite underutilizationThe right treatment at the right time in the right place: early results and associations from the introduction of an all-inclusive provincial trauma care systemA multicentre study of patient experiences with acute and postacute injury carePopulation burden of major trauma: Has introduction of an organized trauma system made a difference?Long-term functional and return to work outcomes following blunt major trauma in Victoria, AustraliaSurgical dilemma in major burns victim: heterotopic ossification of the tempromandibular jointWhich radiological modality to choose in a unique penetrating neck injury: a differing opinionThe Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) program in CanadaThe Rural Trauma Team Development Course (RTTDC) in Pakistan: Is there a role?Novel deployment of BC mobile medical unit for coverage of BMX world cup sporting eventIncidence and prevalence of intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in critically ill adults: a systematic review and meta-analysisRisk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension and abdominal compartment syndrome in critically ill or injured adults: a systematic review and meta-analysisA comparison of quality improvement practices at adult and pediatric trauma centresInternational trauma centre survey to evaluate content validity, usability and feasibility of quality indicatorsLong-term functional recovery following decompressive craniectomy for severe traumatic brain injuryMorbidity and mortality associated with free falls from a height among teenage patients: a 5-year review from a level 1 trauma centreA comparison of adverse events between trauma patients and general surgery patients in a level 1 trauma centreProcoagulation, anticoagulation and fibrinolysis in severely bleeding trauma patients: a laboratorial characterization of the early trauma coagulopathyThe use of mobile technology to facilitate surveillance and improve injury outcome in sport and physical activityIntegrated knowledge translation for injury quality improvement: a partnership between researchers and knowledge usersThe impact of a prevention project in trauma with young and their learningIntraosseus vascular access in adult trauma patients: a systematic reviewThematic analysis of patient reported experiences with acute and post-acute injury careAn evaluation of a world health organization trauma care checklist quality improvement pilot programProspective validation of the modified pediatric trauma triage toolThe 16-year evolution of a Canadian level 1 trauma centre: growing up, growing out, and the impact of a booming economyA 20-year review of trauma related literature: What have we done and where are we going?Management of traumatic flail chest: a systematic review of the literatureOperative versus nonoperative management of flail chestEmergency department performance of a clinically indicated and technically successful emergency department thoracotomy and pericardiotomy with minimal equipment in a New Zealand institution without specialized surgical backupBritish Columbia’s mobile medical unit — an emergency health care support resourceRoutine versus ad hoc screening for acute stress: Who would benefit and what are the opportunities for trauma care?A geographical analysis of the Early Development Instrument (EDI) and childhood injuryDevelopment of a pediatric spinal cord injury nursing course“Kids die in driveways” — an injury prevention campaignEpidemiology of traumatic spine injuries in childrenA collaborative approach to reducing injuries in New Brunswick: acute care and injury preventionImpact of changes to a provincial field trauma triage tool in New BrunswickEnsuring quality of field trauma triage in New BrunswickBenefits of a provincial trauma transfer referral system: beyond the numbersThe field trauma triage landscape in New BrunswickImpact of the Rural Trauma Team Development Course (RTTDC) on trauma transfer intervals in a provincial, inclusive trauma systemTrauma and stress: a critical dynamics study of burnout in trauma centre healthcare professionalsUltrasound-guided pediatric forearm fracture reduction with sedation in the emergency departmentBlock first, opiates later? The use of the fascia iliaca block for patients with hip fractures in the emergency department: a systematic reviewRural trauma systems — demographic and survival analysis of remote traumas transferred from northern QuebecSimulation in trauma ultrasound trainingIncidence of clinically significant intra-abdominal injuries in stable blunt trauma patientsWake up: head injury management around the clockDamage control laparotomy for combat casualties in forward surgical facilitiesDetection of soft tissue foreign bodies by nurse practitioner performed ultrasoundAntihypertensive medications and walking devices are associated with falls from standingThe transfer process: perspectives of transferring physiciansDevelopment of a rodent model for the study of abdominal compartment syndromeClinical efficacy of routine repeat head computed tomography in pediatric traumatic brain injuryEarly warning scores (EWS) in trauma: assessing the “effectiveness” of interventions by a rural ground transport service in the interior of British ColumbiaAccuracy of trauma patient transfer documentation in BCPostoperative echocardiogram after penetrating cardiac injuries: a retrospective studyLoss to follow-up in trauma studies comparing operative methods: a systematic reviewWhat matters where and to whom: a survey of experts on the Canadian pediatric trauma systemA quality initiative to enhance pain management for trauma patients: baseline attitudes of practitionersComparison of rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) values in massive and nonmassive transfusion patientsMild traumatic brain injury defined by GCS: Is it really mild?The CMAC videolaryngosocpe is superior to the glidescope for the intubation of trauma patients: a prospective analysisInjury patterns and outcome of urban versus suburban major traumaA cost-effective, readily accessible technique for progressive abdominal closureEvolution and impact of the use of pan-CT scan in a tertiary urban trauma centre: a 4-year auditAdditional and repeated CT scan in interfacilities trauma transfers: room for standardizationPediatric trauma in situ simulation facilitates identification and resolution of system issuesHospital code orange plan: there’s an app for thatDiaphragmatic rupture from blunt trauma: an NTDB studyEarly closure of open abdomen using component separation techniqueSurgical fixation versus nonoperative management of flail chest: a meta-analysisIntegration of intraoperative angiography as part of damage control surgery in major traumaMass casualty preparedness of regional trauma systems: recommendations for an evaluative frameworkDiagnostic peritoneal aspirate: An obsolete diagnostic modality?Blunt hollow viscus injury: the frequency and consequences of delayed diagnosis in the era of selective nonoperative managementEnding “double jeopardy:” the diagnostic impact of cardiac ultrasound and chest radiography on operative sequencing in penetrating thoracoabdominal traumaAre trauma patients with hyperfibrinolysis diagnosed by rotem salvageable?The risk of cardiac injury after penetrating thoracic trauma: Which is the better predictor, hemodynamic status or pericardial window?The online Concussion Awareness Training Toolkit for health practitioners (CATT): a new resource for recognizing, treating, and managing concussionThe prevention of concussion and brain injury in child and youth team sportsRandomized controlled trial of an early rehabilitation intervention to improve return to work Rates following road traumaPhone call follow-upPericardiocentesis in trauma: a systematic review. Can J Surg 2013. [DOI: 10.1503/cjs.005813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022] Open
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Fuss M, Sanz A, Muñoz A, Do T, Nixon K, Brunger M, Hubin-Franskin MJ, Oller J, Blanco F, García G. Interaction model for electron scattering from ethylene in the energy range 1–10000eV. Chem Phys Lett 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cplett.2013.01.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Kelso ML, Liput DJ, Eaves DW, Nixon K. Upregulated vimentin suggests new areas of neurodegeneration in a model of an alcohol use disorder. Neuroscience 2011; 197:381-93. [PMID: 21958862 DOI: 10.1016/j.neuroscience.2011.09.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2011] [Revised: 08/28/2011] [Accepted: 09/08/2011] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Excessive alcohol intake, characteristic of an alcohol use disorder (AUD), results in neurodegeneration as well as cognitive deficits that may recover in abstinence. Neurodegeneration in psychiatric disorders such as AUDs is due to various effects on tissue integrity. Several groups report that alcohol-induced neurodegeneration and recovery include a role for adult neurogenesis. Therefore, the initial purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of alcohol on the temporal profile of neural progenitor cells using the radial glia marker, vimentin, in a model of an AUD. However, striking vimentin expression throughout corticolimbic regions led, instead, to the discovery of a significant gliosis response in this model. Adult male rats were subjected to a 4-day binge model of an AUD and brains harvested for immunohistochemistry at 0, 2, 4, 7, 14, and 28 days following the last dose of ethanol. A prominent increase in vimentin immunoreactivity was apparent at 4 and 7 days post binge that returned to control levels by 14 days in the corticolimbic regions examined. Vimentin-positive cells co-labeled with glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), which suggested that cells were reactive astrocytes. A second experiment supported that increased vimentin was not primarily due to alcohol withdrawal seizures and is more likely due to alcohol-induced cell death. As this gliosis was remarkably distinct in regions where cell death had not previously been reported in this model, adjacent tissue sections were processed for FluoroJade B staining for cell death. FluoroJade B-positive cells were evident immediately following the last ethanol dose as expected, but were significantly elevated in the hippocampal dentate gyrus and CA3 regions and corticolimbic regions from 2 to 7 days post binge. Intriguingly, vimentin labeling of astrogliosis is more widespread than FluoroJade B labeling of cell death, which suggests that 4-day binge ethanol consumption is more damaging than originally realized.
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Affiliation(s)
- M L Kelso
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of Kentucky College of Pharmacy, 789 S. Limestone, BPC 022A, Lexington, KY 40536-0596, USA
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Morris SA, Kelso ML, Liput DJ, Marshall SA, Nixon K. Similar withdrawal severity in adolescents and adults in a rat model of alcohol dependence. Alcohol 2010; 44:89-98. [PMID: 20113877 DOI: 10.1016/j.alcohol.2009.10.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2009] [Revised: 10/29/2009] [Accepted: 10/30/2009] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Alcohol use during adolescence leads to increased risk of developing an alcohol use disorder (AUD) during adulthood. Converging evidence suggests that this period of enhanced vulnerability for developing an AUD may be due to the adolescent's unique sensitivity and response to alcohol. Adolescent rats have been shown to be less sensitive to alcohol intoxication and withdrawal susceptibility; however, age differences in ethanol pharmacokinetics may underlie these effects. Therefore, this study investigated alcohol intoxication behavior and withdrawal severity using a modified Majchrowicz model of alcohol dependence that has been shown to result in similar blood ethanol concentrations (BECs) despite age differences. Adolescent (postnatal day, PND, 35) and adult rats (PND 70+) received ethanol according to this 4-day binge paradigm and were observed for withdrawal behavior for 17h. As expected, adolescents showed decreased sensitivity to alcohol-induced CNS depression as evidenced by significantly lower intoxication scores. Thus, adolescents received significantly more ethanol each day (12.3+/-0.1g/kg/day) than adults (9.2+/-0.2g/kg/day). Despite greater ethanol dosing in adolescent rats, both adolescent and adult groups had comparable peak BECs (344.5+/-10.2 and 338.5+/-7.8mg/dL, respectively). Strikingly, withdrawal severity was similar quantitatively and qualitatively between adolescent and adult rats. Further, this is the first time that withdrawal behavior has been reported for adolescent rats using this model of alcohol dependence. A second experiment confirmed the similarity in BECs at various time points across the binge. These results demonstrate that after consideration of ethanol pharmacokinetics between adults and adolescents by using a model that produces similar BECs, withdrawal severity is nearly identical. This study, in combination with previous reports on ethanol withdrawal in adolescents and adults, suggests only a BEC-dependent effect of ethanol on withdrawal severity regardless of age.
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Affiliation(s)
- S A Morris
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of Kentucky, Lexington, 40536-0082, USA
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Fuss M, Muñoz A, Oller JC, Blanco F, Limão-Vieira P, Huerga C, Téllez M, Hubin-Fraskin MJ, Nixon K, Brunger M, García G. Modelling low energy electron interactions for biomedical uses of radiation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/194/1/012028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Nixon K, Kim DH, Potts EN, He J, Crews FT. Distinct cell proliferation events during abstinence after alcohol dependence: microglia proliferation precedes neurogenesis. Neurobiol Dis 2008; 31:218-29. [PMID: 18585922 DOI: 10.1016/j.nbd.2008.04.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2008] [Revised: 03/12/2008] [Accepted: 04/21/2008] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Excessive alcohol intake characteristic of Alcohol Use Disorders (AUDs) produces neurodegeneration that may recover with abstinence. The mechanism of regeneration is unclear, however neurogenesis from neural stem/progenitor cells is a feasible mechanism of structural plasticity. Therefore, a timecourse of cell proliferation was examined in a rat model of an AUD and showed a striking burst in cell proliferation at 2 days of abstinence preceding the previously reported neurogenic proliferation at 7 days. New cells at 2 days, assessed by bromo-deoxy-uridine incorporation and endogenous markers, were observed throughout hippocampus and cortex. Although the majority of these new cells did not become neurons, neurogenesis was not altered at this specific time point. These new cells expressed a microglia-specific marker, Iba-1, and survived at least 2 months. This first report of microglia proliferation in a model of an AUD suggests that microgliosis could contribute to volume recovery in non-neurogenic regions during abstinence.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Nixon
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of Kentucky, College of Pharmacy, 725 Rose Street, Lexington, KY 40536-0082, USA
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Crews FT, Mdzinarishvili A, Kim D, He J, Nixon K. Neurogenesis in adolescent brain is potently inhibited by ethanol. Neuroscience 2006; 137:437-45. [PMID: 16289890 DOI: 10.1016/j.neuroscience.2005.08.090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 207] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2005] [Revised: 08/23/2005] [Accepted: 08/31/2005] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Adolescence is a period of progressive changes in brain that likely contribute to the maturation of behavior. Human adolescents consume large amounts of ethanol. To investigate the effects of ethanol on adolescent neural progenitor cells, male rats (35-40 days old) were treated with an acute dose of ethanol (1.0, 2.5 or 5.0 g/kg, i.g.) or vehicle that resulted in peak blood levels of 33, 72, and 131 mg/dl, respectively. Bromodeoxyuridine (300 mg/kg i.p.) was administered to label dividing cells and rats were killed at 5 h to assess proliferation or at 28 days to assess cell survival and differentiation. After 5 h, bromodeoxyuridine-immunoreactivity was reduced by 63, 97 and 99% in the rostral migratory stream and 34, 71 and 99% in the subventricular zone by 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 g/kg of ethanol respectively. In the dentate gyrus, ethanol reduced bromodeoxyuridine-immunoreactivity by 29, 40, and 78% at the three doses respectively. The density of doublecortin immunoreactivity was decreased after 3 days and the number of bromodeoxyuridine+ cells remained decreased at 28 days when most hippocampal bromodeoxyuridine+ cells coexpressed neuronal nuclei, a neuronal marker. These studies indicate that the adolescent brain is very sensitive to acute ethanol inhibition of neurogenesis.
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Affiliation(s)
- F T Crews
- Bowles Center for Alcohol Studies, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1021 Thurston Bowles Building, CB 7178, 27599-7178, USA.
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Drolet DW, Nelson J, Tucker CE, Zack PM, Nixon K, Bolin R, Judkins MB, Farmer JA, Wolf JL, Gill SC, Bendele RA. Pharmacokinetics and safety of an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor aptamer (NX1838) following injection into the vitreous humor of rhesus monkeys. Pharm Res 2000; 17:1503-10. [PMID: 11303960 DOI: 10.1023/a:1007657109012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 150] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The objective of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics and safety for NX1838 following injection into the vitreous humor of rhesus monkeys. METHODS Plasma and vitreous humor pharmacokinetics were determined following a single bilateral 0.25, 0.50, 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 mg/eye dose. In addition, the pharmacokinetics and toxicological properties of NX1838 were determined following six biweekly bilateral injections of 0.25 or 0.50 mg/eye or following four biweekly bilateral injections of 0.10 mg per eye followed by two biweekly bilateral injections of 1.0 mg per eye. RESULTS Plasma and vitreous humor NX1838 concentrations were linearly related to the dose administered. NX1838 was cleared intact from the vitreous humor into the plasma with a half-life of approximately 94 h, which was in agreement with the plasma terminal half-life. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-binding assays demonstrated that the NX1838 remaining in the vitreous humor after 28 days was fully active. No toxicological effects or antibody responses were evident. CONCLUSIONS The no observable effect level was greater than six biweekly bilateral 0.50 mg/eye doses or two biweekly bilateral 1.0 mg/eye doses. These pharmacokinetic and safety data support monthly 1 or 2 mg/eye dose regimens in human clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- D W Drolet
- Gilead Sciences Inc, Boulder, CO 80301, USA.
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Adams MD, Celniker SE, Holt RA, Evans CA, Gocayne JD, Amanatides PG, Scherer SE, Li PW, Hoskins RA, Galle RF, George RA, Lewis SE, Richards S, Ashburner M, Henderson SN, Sutton GG, Wortman JR, Yandell MD, Zhang Q, Chen LX, Brandon RC, Rogers YH, Blazej RG, Champe M, Pfeiffer BD, Wan KH, Doyle C, Baxter EG, Helt G, Nelson CR, Gabor GL, Abril JF, Agbayani A, An HJ, Andrews-Pfannkoch C, Baldwin D, Ballew RM, Basu A, Baxendale J, Bayraktaroglu L, Beasley EM, Beeson KY, Benos PV, Berman BP, Bhandari D, Bolshakov S, Borkova D, Botchan MR, Bouck J, Brokstein P, Brottier P, Burtis KC, Busam DA, Butler H, Cadieu E, Center A, Chandra I, Cherry JM, Cawley S, Dahlke C, Davenport LB, Davies P, de Pablos B, Delcher A, Deng Z, Mays AD, Dew I, Dietz SM, Dodson K, Doup LE, Downes M, Dugan-Rocha S, Dunkov BC, Dunn P, Durbin KJ, Evangelista CC, Ferraz C, Ferriera S, Fleischmann W, Fosler C, Gabrielian AE, Garg NS, Gelbart WM, Glasser K, Glodek A, Gong F, Gorrell JH, Gu Z, Guan P, Harris M, Harris NL, Harvey D, Heiman TJ, Hernandez JR, Houck J, Hostin D, Houston KA, Howland TJ, Wei MH, Ibegwam C, Jalali M, Kalush F, Karpen GH, Ke Z, Kennison JA, Ketchum KA, Kimmel BE, Kodira CD, Kraft C, Kravitz S, Kulp D, Lai Z, Lasko P, Lei Y, Levitsky AA, Li J, Li Z, Liang Y, Lin X, Liu X, Mattei B, McIntosh TC, McLeod MP, McPherson D, Merkulov G, Milshina NV, Mobarry C, Morris J, Moshrefi A, Mount SM, Moy M, Murphy B, Murphy L, Muzny DM, Nelson DL, Nelson DR, Nelson KA, Nixon K, Nusskern DR, Pacleb JM, Palazzolo M, Pittman GS, Pan S, Pollard J, Puri V, Reese MG, Reinert K, Remington K, Saunders RD, Scheeler F, Shen H, Shue BC, Sidén-Kiamos I, Simpson M, Skupski MP, Smith T, Spier E, Spradling AC, Stapleton M, Strong R, Sun E, Svirskas R, Tector C, Turner R, Venter E, Wang AH, Wang X, Wang ZY, Wassarman DA, Weinstock GM, Weissenbach J, Williams SM, Worley KC, Wu D, Yang S, Yao QA, Ye J, Yeh RF, Zaveri JS, Zhan M, Zhang G, Zhao Q, Zheng L, Zheng XH, Zhong FN, Zhong W, Zhou X, Zhu S, Zhu X, Smith HO, Gibbs RA, Myers EW, Rubin GM, Venter JC. The genome sequence of Drosophila melanogaster. Science 2000; 287:2185-95. [PMID: 10731132 DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5461.2185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3976] [Impact Index Per Article: 165.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
The fly Drosophila melanogaster is one of the most intensively studied organisms in biology and serves as a model system for the investigation of many developmental and cellular processes common to higher eukaryotes, including humans. We have determined the nucleotide sequence of nearly all of the approximately 120-megabase euchromatic portion of the Drosophila genome using a whole-genome shotgun sequencing strategy supported by extensive clone-based sequence and a high-quality bacterial artificial chromosome physical map. Efforts are under way to close the remaining gaps; however, the sequence is of sufficient accuracy and contiguity to be declared substantially complete and to support an initial analysis of genome structure and preliminary gene annotation and interpretation. The genome encodes approximately 13,600 genes, somewhat fewer than the smaller Caenorhabditis elegans genome, but with comparable functional diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- M D Adams
- Celera Genomics, 45 West Gude Drive, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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Wick MJ, Bleck V, Whatley VJ, Brozowski SJ, Nixon K, Cardoso RA, Valenzuela CF. Stable expression of human glycine alpha1 and alpha2 homomeric receptors in mouse L(tk-) cells. J Neurosci Methods 1999; 87:97-103. [PMID: 10065998 DOI: 10.1016/s0165-0270(98)00170-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
We report the development of two mouse fibroblast-like stably-transfected cell lines (alpha1-62-4 and alpha2-B36-1) that express human alpha1 or alpha2 glycine receptor subunits, respectively. Transfected cDNAs were cloned into the pMSGneo expression vector, for which transcription is controlled by the dexamethasone-inducible MMTV promoter. Patch-clamp electrophysiological recordings revealed that the alpha1 or alpha2 glycine receptor subunits expressed in these cells form functional glycine receptors that are inhibited by strychnine and picrotoxin. Glycine activated currents in these cells with EC50s of 101+/-7 or 112+/-23 microM for cells stably expressing alpha1 or alpha2 receptors, respectively. As indicated by assays of glycine-stimulated 36Cl-- uptake, these cells express glycine receptors only after treatment with dexamethasone. In order to measure expression of the glycine alpha1 or alpha2 receptor protein, we produced a new anti-alpha1/alpha2 glycine receptor antibody (anti-alpha GR). Western blot analysis with this antibody showed a band of approximately 48 kDa only in homogenates from cells which had been transfected with the glycine alpha1 or alpha2 receptor cDNAs. Thus, through use of this stable expression system, we successfully produced cell lines expressing strychnine-sensitive glycine receptors that display similar functional characteristics to homomeric glycine receptors expressed in other systems. These stably transfected cells should provide a useful in vitro system for the study of the physiology and pharmacology of strychnine-sensitive glycine receptors.
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Affiliation(s)
- M J Wick
- Department of Pharmacology, University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, Denver 80262, USA.
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Kalantar-Zadeh K, Dunne E, Nixon K, Kahn K, Lee GH, Kleiner M, Luft FC. Near infra-red interactance for nutritional assessment of dialysis patients. Nephrol Dial Transplant 1999; 14:169-75. [PMID: 10052499 DOI: 10.1093/ndt/14.1.169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malnutrition is a common problem in dialysis patients and may affect up to one-third of patients. Near-infrared interactance (NIR) is a novel approach to estimate body composition and per cent total body fat. METHODS We used near-infrared interactance (Futrex 5000) to estimate the body composition including body fat percentage, as well as subjective global assessment (SGA), anthropometric measurements including mid-arm circumference (MAC), triceps and biceps skinfold thickness, calculated mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC), body mass index (BMI), and laboratory values. NIR score, SGA assessment and anthropometric parameters were measured shortly after the end of a dialysis session. NIR measurement was made by placing a Futrex sensor on the nonaccess upper arm for several seconds. Serum albumin, transferrin (reflected by total iron binding capacity), and total cholesterol concentrations were performed as well. RESULTS Thirty-four patients (20 men and 14 women) were selected from a pool of 120 haemodialysis patients. Their ages ranged from 26 to 86 years (58+/-14 years). Time on dialysis ranged from 8 months to 19 years (4.5+/-4.6 years). NIR scores were significantly different in three SGA groups: (A) well-nourished, 32.5+/-6.9%; (B) mildly to moderately malnourished, 29.2+/-5.3%; and (C) severely malnourished, 23.2+/-10.2% (P<0.001). Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between the NIR score and nutritionally relevant parameters were significant (P<0.001) for body mass index (r=+0.81), mid-arm circumference (r=+0.74), triceps skin fold (r=+0.54), biceps skin fold (r=+0.55), and mid-arm muscle circumference (r=+0.54). An inverse correlation was also found between NIR and years dialysed (r=-0.49, P=0.004), denoting a lesser body fat percentage according to NIR for patients dialysed longer. NIR was correlated with serum transferrin (r=+0.41, P=0.016) and cholesterol (r=+0.39, P=0.022) and marginally with serum albumin (r=+0.29, P=0.097). CONCLUSIONS We conclude that NIR, which can be performed within seconds, may serve as an objective indicator of nutritional status in haemodialysis patients. More comparative and longitudinal studies are needed to confirm the validity of NIR measurements in nutritional evaluation of dialysis patients.
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Crepet W, Nixon K. Fossil Clusiaceae from the late Cretaceous (Turonian) of New Jersey and implications regarding the history of bee pollination. Am J Bot 1998; 85:1122. [PMID: 21684997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
The Turonian flora from Sayreville New Jersey includes one of the world's most diverse assemblages of Cretaceous angiosperm flowers. This flora is made even more interesting by its association with a large insect fauna that is preserved by charcoalification as well as in amber. Floral diversity includes numerous representatives of Magnoliidae, Hamamelididae, Rosidae, Dilleniidae, and Asteridae (Ericales sensu lato). Included are hypogynous, five-merous flowers with uniseriate hairs on the pedicels and stamens in bundles most frequently borne opposite the petals. There is considerable variation in filament length, and some filaments are branched. On some anthers, strands of residue, suggesting the former presence of a liquid of unknown nature, partially occlude the apparent zone of dehiscence. In other cases, open anthers are fully occluded by an amorphous substance. Pollen is rarely found associated with anthers, but is common on stigmatic surfaces. Pollen is prolate and tricolporate with reticulate micromorphology. The superior syncarpous ovary is five-carpellate with axile/intruded parietal placentation and numerous anatropous ovules/carpel. Ovary partitions have closely spaced, parallel ascending channels (secretory canals?), and there are apparent secretory canals/cavities in receptacles, sepals, and petals. Individual stigmas are cuneiform with a central groove and eccentrically peltate. Styles are short and fused. In aggregate, the stigmas form a secondarily peltate stigma. Seeds have a reticulate sculpture pattern, a pronounced raphe, and funicular arils with sculpture similar to the seeds. Phylogenetic analyses of several data matrices of extant taxa place this fossil in a monophyletic group with the modern genera Garcinia and Clusia within the Clusiaceae. As such, these fossils represent the earliest fossil evidence of the family Clusiaceae. Some modern Clusiaceae are notable, in particular, for their close relationship with meliponine and other highly derived bee pollinators; the fossil flowers share several characters that suggest a similar mode of pollination. This possibility is consistent with other floral and insect data from the same locality.
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Gandolfo M, Nixon K, Crepet W. A new fossil flower from the Turonian of New Jersey: Dressiantha bicarpellata gen. et sp. nov. (Capparales). Am J Bot 1998; 85:964. [PMID: 21684980] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Recent discoveries of fossil reproductive structures from deposits of the Raritan Formation in New Jersey (Turonian, Upper Cretaceous, ~90 million years BP) include a previously undescribed representative of the Order Capparales. The fossils are usually charcoalified with three-dimensional structure and excellent anatomical details. In the present contribution, we introduce a taxon represented by fossil flowers that have a combination of characters now found in the families of the Order Capparales sensu Cronquist. The fossil species is characterized by an unique suite of characters, such as the presence of a gynophore, arrangement of the sepals, unequal petal size, monothecal anthers, and a bicarpellate gynoecium, that are found in extant families of the Order Capparales. This new taxon constitutes an important addition to our understanding of Cretaceous angiosperm diversity and represents the oldest known fossil record for the Capparales. Heretofore, the oldest known capparalean was from the Late Tertiary sediments of North America.
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Gandolfo M, Nixon K, Crepet W. Tylerianthus crossmanensis gen. et sp. nov. (aff. Hydrangeaceae) from the Upper Cretaceous of New Jersey. Am J Bot 1998; 85:376. [PMID: 21684922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
A fossil flower with affinities to the modern families of the saxifragalean complex is described. Fossils were collected at Old Crossman Pit, Raritan Formation, New Jersey, USA. These sediments are dated on the basis of palynology as Turonian (Upper Cretaceous, ~90 million years before present). Fossils are charcoalified and preserved with exceptional three- dimensional detail. The characters observed in these flowers, when compared with those of extant flowers of several families of the saxifragalean complex, suggest a close relationship with extant members of the Saxifragaceae and Hydrangeaceae. Hypotheses on the origin of petals and staminodes and a possible mechanism of pollination are discussed. This new taxon provides additional characters in the floral morphology of the fossil saxifragoids and extends their geographical distribution in the Cretaceous to North America.
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Gandolfo M, Nixon K, Crepet W, Ratcliffe G. A new fossil fern assignable to Gleicheniaceae from Late Cretaceous sediments of New Jersey. Am J Bot 1997; 84:483. [PMID: 21708602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
The recent discovery of well-preserved charcoalified rhizomes, petioles. pinnules, sori, and spores from the Upper Cretaceous of New Jersey provides the basis for the description of a new gleicheniaceous fern, Boodlepteris turoniana. The fossils were collected from unconsolidated sediments of Turonian age (~90 MYBP million years before present; Raritan/ Lower Magothy Formation, Potomac Group). These deposits are rich in angiosperms, but also have a limited representation of fern and gymnosperm remains. Fossil specimens from this locality are particularly remarkable in that minute detail, including anatomical features, are often preserved. Some Boodlepteris specimens have cell by cell preservation that reveals the nature and structure of the stele in rhizomes and petioles, and others show minute details of the sori borne on fertile pinnae. Although these specimens are not in organic connection, there are sufficient structural and anatomical details preserved to confidently suggest that they belong to the same taxon. Cladistic analysis of the fossils, both separately and as a reconstruction, support assignment of Boodlepteris to the extant family Gleicheniaceae.
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Abstract
The N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) subtype of the excitatory amino acid receptor has been implicated in several kinds of learning and memory, as well as in long-term potentiation (LTP), a putative cellular mechanism for learning and memory. This experiment examined the role of the NMDA receptor in patterned single-alternation (PSA) learning in preweanling rats following intraperitoneal injections of 0.05 mg/kg MK-801, a selective NMDA antagonist. MK-801 significantly inhibited PSA at both 60-s and 30-s intertrial intervals (ITIs), and attenuated, but did not block, learning at 8-s ITI. These results are compared with effects on PSA, a form of nonspatial, memory-based learning, observed after early postnatal exposure to alcohol, infant hippocampal lesions, and infant exposure to X-irradiation, and they add strongly to these earlier demonstrations of the role of the hippocampus in learning and memory that is clearly nonspatial and non-cognitive-map-related.
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Affiliation(s)
- D A Highfield
- Department of Psychology, University of Texas at Austin 78712, USA
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Abstract
The N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) subtype of the excitatory amino acid receptor has been implicated in several kinds of learning and memory, as well as in long-term potentiation (LTP), a putative cellular mechanism for learning and memory. This experiment examined the role of the NMDA receptor in patterned single-alternation (PSA) learning in preweanling rats following intraperitoneal injections of 0.05 mg/kg MK-801, a selective NMDA antagonist. MK-801 significantly inhibited PSA at both 60-s and 30-s intertrial intervals (ITIs), and attenuated, but did not block, learning at 8-s ITI. These results are compared with effects on PSA, a form of nonspatial, memory-based learning, observed after early postnatal exposure to alcohol, infant hippocampal lesions, and infant exposure to X-irradiation, and they add strongly to these earlier demonstrations of the role of the hippocampus in learning and memory that is clearly nonspatial and non-cognitive-map-related.
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Affiliation(s)
- D A Highfield
- Department of Psychology, University of Texas at Austin 78712, USA
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Abstract
A survey was administered to 153 sixth through twelfth graders. It included items on videogame play plus self-esteem and aggression scales. Teachers also rated the children on self-esteem and aggression. Amount of videogame play correlated with aggression and not with self-esteem. About
4796 of the sample said some videogames might foster anger or aggression. Among other results was evidence that boys play videogames more than girls and are more aggressive than girls. Self-esteem and aggression were positively correlated on teacher ratings but negatively on self-ratings.
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Schreiber JR, Pier GB, Grout M, Nixon K, Patawaran M. Induction of opsonic antibodies to Pseudomonas aeruginosa mucoid exopolysaccharide by an anti-idiotypic monoclonal antibody. J Infect Dis 1991; 164:507-14. [PMID: 1831226 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/164.3.507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Mucoid strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa are the major pulmonary pathogens for cystic fibrosis patients. Opsonizing antibodies to the mucoid exopolysaccharide (MEP) antigen may protect animals and some cystic fibrosis patients from infection. However, MEP does not readily elicit opsonic antibodies either during chronic infection or after vaccination. To evaluate alternative means to induce opsonic antibodies, a murine monoclonal anti-idiotypic antibody directed to an opsonic monoclonal antibody specific to MEP was produced. The anti-idiotypic antibody bound to F(ab')2 fragments of the opsonic antibody, blocked binding to MEP, bound to cross-reactive idiotopes on human opsonic antibodies to MEP, and elicited MEP-specific antibodies in syngeneic and allogeneic mice. These anti-idiotype-induced, MEP-specific antibodies fixed complement to mucoid P. aeruginosa cells and opsonized them for phagocytic killing by human leukocytes. These studies demonstrate the potential utility of anti-idiotypic monoclonal antibody for generating protective immunity against bacterial polysaccharides.
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Affiliation(s)
- J R Schreiber
- Department of Pediatrics, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio
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Nixon K. Periodontal aspects of orthodontic therapy. Aust Orthod J 1976; 4:137-45. [PMID: 1074609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
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Nixon K, Russell M. Orientation - would it work for you? Part one. Creating a learning environment. Can Nurse 1975; 71:24, 26. [PMID: 1192380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
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Lohmann W, Miller J, Perkins WH, Nixon K. Photosensitization of xanthine-containing substances: electron spin resonance studies. Naturwissenschaften 1965; 52:394. [PMID: 4286613 DOI: 10.1007/bf00621427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
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