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Baublitz CB, Fiore AM, Ludwig SM, Nicely JM, Wolfe GM, Murray LT, Commane R, Prather MJ, Anderson DC, Correa G, Duncan BN, Follette-Cook M, Westervelt DM, Bourgeois I, Brune WH, Bui TP, DiGangi JP, Diskin GS, Hall SR, McKain K, Miller DO, Peischl J, Thames AB, Thompson CR, Ullmann K, Wofsy SC. An observation-based, reduced-form model for oxidation in the remote marine troposphere. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2209735120. [PMID: 37579162 PMCID: PMC10451388 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2209735120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/16/2023] Open
Abstract
The hydroxyl radical (OH) fuels atmospheric chemical cycling as the main sink for methane and a driver of the formation and loss of many air pollutants, but direct OH observations are sparse. We develop and evaluate an observation-based proxy for short-term, spatial variations in OH (ProxyOH) in the remote marine troposphere using comprehensive measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) airborne campaign. ProxyOH is a reduced form of the OH steady-state equation representing the dominant OH production and loss pathways in the remote marine troposphere, according to box model simulations of OH constrained with ATom observations. ProxyOH comprises only eight variables that are generally observed by routine ground- or satellite-based instruments. ProxyOH scales linearly with in situ [OH] spatial variations along the ATom flight tracks (median r2 = 0.90, interquartile range = 0.80 to 0.94 across 2-km altitude by 20° latitudinal regions). We deconstruct spatial variations in ProxyOH as a first-order approximation of the sensitivity of OH variations to individual terms. Two terms modulate within-region ProxyOH variations-water vapor (H2O) and, to a lesser extent, nitric oxide (NO). This implies that a limited set of observations could offer an avenue for observation-based mapping of OH spatial variations over much of the remote marine troposphere. Both H2O and NO are expected to change with climate, while NO also varies strongly with human activities. We also illustrate the utility of ProxyOH as a process-based approach for evaluating intermodel differences in remote marine tropospheric OH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colleen B. Baublitz
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY10027
- Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10964
| | - Arlene M. Fiore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY10027
- Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10964
| | - Sarah M. Ludwig
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY10027
- Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10964
| | - Julie M. Nicely
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD20740
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD20771
| | - Glenn M. Wolfe
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD20771
| | - Lee T. Murray
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY14627
| | - Róisín Commane
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY10027
- Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10964
| | - Michael J. Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA92697
| | - Daniel C. Anderson
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD20771
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research II, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD21250
| | - Gustavo Correa
- Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10964
| | - Bryan N. Duncan
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD20771
| | - Melanie Follette-Cook
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD20771
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research II, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD21251
| | - Daniel M. Westervelt
- Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10964
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY10025
| | - Ilann Bourgeois
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO80309
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO80305
| | - William H. Brune
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
| | - T. Paul Bui
- Atmospheric Science Branch, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA94035
| | - Joshua P. DiGangi
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA23666
| | - Glenn S. Diskin
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA23666
| | - Samuel R. Hall
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO80307
| | - Kathryn McKain
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO80309
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, CO80305
| | - David O. Miller
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
| | - Jeff Peischl
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO80309
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO80305
| | - Alexander B. Thames
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
| | - Chelsea R. Thompson
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO80309
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO80305
| | - Kirk Ullmann
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO80307
| | - Steven C. Wofsy
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA02138
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Lee DS, Fahey DW, Skowron A, Allen MR, Burkhardt U, Chen Q, Doherty SJ, Freeman S, Forster PM, Fuglestvedt J, Gettelman A, De León RR, Lim LL, Lund MT, Millar RJ, Owen B, Penner JE, Pitari G, Prather MJ, Sausen R, Wilcox LJ. The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018. Atmos Environ (1994) 2021; 244:117834. [PMID: 32895604 PMCID: PMC7468346 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 90] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2020] [Revised: 07/02/2020] [Accepted: 07/30/2020] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr-1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr-1. Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m-2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m-2), CO2 (34.3 mW m-2), and NOx (17.5 mW m-2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m-2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.
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Affiliation(s)
- D S Lee
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - D W Fahey
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
| | - A Skowron
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - M R Allen
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - U Burkhardt
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Q Chen
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - S J Doherty
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - S Freeman
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - P M Forster
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
| | - J Fuglestvedt
- CICERO-Center for International Climate Research-Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway
| | - A Gettelman
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - R R De León
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - L L Lim
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - M T Lund
- CICERO-Center for International Climate Research-Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway
| | - R J Millar
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Committee on Climate Change, 151 Buckingham Palace Road, London, SW1W 9SZ, UK
| | - B Owen
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - J E Penner
- Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2143, USA
| | - G Pitari
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, Via Vetoio, 67100, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - M J Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3329 Croul Hall, CA, 92697-3100, USA
| | - R Sausen
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - L J Wilcox
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
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Tian H, Xu R, Canadell JG, Thompson RL, Winiwarter W, Suntharalingam P, Davidson EA, Ciais P, Jackson RB, Janssens-Maenhout G, Prather MJ, Regnier P, Pan N, Pan S, Peters GP, Shi H, Tubiello FN, Zaehle S, Zhou F, Arneth A, Battaglia G, Berthet S, Bopp L, Bouwman AF, Buitenhuis ET, Chang J, Chipperfield MP, Dangal SRS, Dlugokencky E, Elkins JW, Eyre BD, Fu B, Hall B, Ito A, Joos F, Krummel PB, Landolfi A, Laruelle GG, Lauerwald R, Li W, Lienert S, Maavara T, MacLeod M, Millet DB, Olin S, Patra PK, Prinn RG, Raymond PA, Ruiz DJ, van der Werf GR, Vuichard N, Wang J, Weiss RF, Wells KC, Wilson C, Yang J, Yao Y. A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks. Nature 2020; 586:248-256. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 377] [Impact Index Per Article: 94.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2019] [Accepted: 08/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Abstract
Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999-2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April-September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (∼95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O3, +6 µg m-3 for PM2.5, and +1.7 °C for TX. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan L Schnell
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697
| | - Michael J Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697
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5
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Schnell JL, Prather MJ, Josse B, Naik V, Horowitz LW, Zeng G, Shindell DT, Faluvegi G. Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 2016; 43:3509-3518. [PMID: 32818004 PMCID: PMC7430523 DOI: 10.1002/2016gl068060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan L Schnell
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Michael J Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Beatrice Josse
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France
| | - Vaishali Naik
- UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Larry W Horowitz
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Guang Zeng
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
| | - Drew T Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Greg Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
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6
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Prather MJ, Hsu J, DeLuca NM, Jackman CH, Oman LD, Douglass AR, Fleming EL, Strahan SE, Steenrod SD, Søvde OA, Isaksen ISA, Froidevaux L, Funke B. Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability. J Geophys Res Atmos 2015; 120:5693-5705. [PMID: 26900537 PMCID: PMC4744722 DOI: 10.1002/2015jd023267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2015] [Revised: 04/10/2015] [Accepted: 05/08/2015] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Nitrous oxide lifetime is computed empirically from MLS satellite dataEmpirical N2O lifetimes compared with models including interannual variabilityResults improve values for present anthropogenic and preindustrial emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J Prather
- Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine California USA
| | - Juno Hsu
- Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine California USA
| | - Nicole M DeLuca
- Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine California USA
| | | | - Luke D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt Maryland USA
| | | | - Eric L Fleming
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt Maryland USA;Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham Maryland USA
| | | | - Stephen D Steenrod
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt Maryland USA; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Center Universities Space Research Association Columbia Maryland USA
| | - O Amund Søvde
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo Oslo Norway
| | | | | | - Bernd Funke
- Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC Granada Spain
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7
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Eklund AG, Altshuler SL, Altshuler PC, Chow JC, Hidy GM, Lloyd AC, Prather MJ, Watson JG, Zalzal P, Andersen SO, Halberstadt ML, Borgford-Parnello N. Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences--an ongoing science and policy story. J Air Waste Manag Assoc 2013; 63:1235-1244. [PMID: 24344568 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2013.847317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Alan C Lloyd
- The International Council on Clean Transportation, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - John G Watson
- Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
| | | | | | - Marcel L Halberstadt
- Michigan Retired Engineer Technical Assistance Foundation, Livonia, Michigan, USA
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8
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Tolbert MA, Pfaff J, Jayaweera I, Prather MJ. Uptake of formaldehyde by sulfuric acid solutions: Impact on stratospheric ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/92jd02386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Houweling S, Badawy B, Baker DF, Basu S, Belikov D, Bergamaschi P, Bousquet P, Broquet G, Butler T, Canadell JG, Chen J, Chevallier F, Ciais P, Collatz GJ, Denning S, Engelen R, Enting IG, Fischer ML, Fraser A, Gerbig C, Gloor M, Jacobson AR, Jones DBA, Heimann M, Khalil A, Kaminski T, Kasibhatla PS, Krakauer NY, Krol M, Maki T, Maksyutov S, Manning A, Meesters A, Miller JB, Palmer PI, Patra P, Peters W, Peylin P, Poussi Z, Prather MJ, Randerson JT, Röckmann T, Rödenbeck C, Sarmiento JL, Schimel DS, Scholze M, Schuh A, Suntharalingam P, Takahashi T, Turnbull J, Yurganov L, Vermeulen A. Iconic CO
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Time Series at Risk. Science 2012; 337:1038-40. [DOI: 10.1126/science.337.6098.1038-b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sander Houweling
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, 3584 CA, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Bakr Badawy
- Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745, Jena, Germany
| | - David F. Baker
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523–1375, USA
| | - Sourish Basu
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, 3584 CA, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Dmitry Belikov
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | | | - Philippe Bousquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Gregoire Broquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Tim Butler
- Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, 14467, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Josep G. Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Jing Chen
- University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada
| | - Frederic Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Scott Denning
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523–1375, USA
| | - Richard Engelen
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
| | - Ian G. Enting
- ARC Centre of Excellence in the Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Marc L. Fischer
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Washington, DC 20024, USA
| | | | | | - Manuel Gloor
- Earth and Biosphere Institute, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Andrew R. Jacobson
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | | | - Martin Heimann
- Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745, Jena, Germany
| | - Aslam Khalil
- Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207, USA
| | | | | | - Nir Y. Krakauer
- Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
| | - Maarten Krol
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, 3584 CA, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
- Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research Center, 6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Takashi Maki
- Environmental and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorol ogical Research Institute, Tskuba, Japan
| | - Shamil Maksyutov
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Andrew Manning
- University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
| | | | - John B. Miller
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
| | | | - Prabir Patra
- Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
| | - Wouter Peters
- Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research Center, 6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Philippe Peylin
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte CEA, UVSQ, CNRS, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | | | | | - Thomas Röckmann
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | - Andrew Schuh
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523–1375, USA
| | | | - Taro Takahashi
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964–8000, USA
| | | | - Leonid Yurganov
- University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA
| | - Alex Vermeulen
- Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, 1755 ZG Petten, Netherlands
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11
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Abstract
Nitrogen oxides emitted from aircraft engines alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, perturbing the greenhouse gases methane (CH(4)) and ozone (O(3)). We quantify uncertainties in radiative forcing (RF) due to short-lived increases in O(3), long-lived decreases in CH(4) and O(3), and their net effect, using the ensemble of published models and a factor decomposition of each forcing. The decomposition captures major features of the ensemble, and also shows which processes drive the total uncertainty in several climate metrics. Aviation-specific factors drive most of the uncertainty for the short-lived O(3) and long-lived CH(4) RFs, but a nonaviation factor dominates for long-lived O(3). The model ensemble shows strong anticorrelation between the short-lived and long-lived RF perturbations (R(2)=0.87). Uncertainty in the net RF is highly sensitive to this correlation. We reproduce the correlation and ensemble spread in one model, showing that processes controlling the background tropospheric abundance of nitrogen oxides are likely responsible for the modeling uncertainty in climate impacts from aviation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher D Holmes
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA.
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12
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Anenberg SC, West IJ, Fiore AM, Jaffe DA, Prather MJ, Bergmann D, Cuvelier K, Dentener FJ, Duncan BN, Gauss M, Hess P, Jonson JE, Lupu A, Mackenzie IA, Marmer E, Park RJ, Sanderson MG, Schultz M, Shindell DT, Szopa S, Vivanco MG, Wild O, Zeng G. Intercontinental impacts of ozone pollution on human mortality. Environ Sci Technol 2009; 43:6482-7. [PMID: 19764205 DOI: 10.1021/es900518z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Ozone exposure is associated with negative health impacts, including premature mortality. Observations and modeling studies demonstrate that emissions from one continent influence ozone air quality over other continents. We estimate the premature mortalities avoided from surface ozone decreases obtained via combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compound, and carbon monoxide emissions in North America (NA), EastAsia (EA), South Asia (SA), and Europe (EU). We use estimates of ozone responses to these emission changes from several atmospheric chemical transportmodels combined with a health impactfunction. Foreign emission reductions contribute approximately 30%, 30%, 20%, and >50% of the mortalities avoided by reducing precursor emissions in all regions together in NA, EA, SA and EU, respectively. Reducing emissions in NA and EU avoids more mortalities outside the source region than within, owing in part to larger populations in foreign regions. Lowering the global methane abundance by 20% reduces mortality mostin SA,followed by EU, EA, and NA. For some source-receptor pairs, there is greater uncertainty in our estimated avoided mortalities associated with the modeled ozone responses to emission changes than with the health impact function parameters.
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Abstract
Atmospheric composition is controlled by the emission, photochemistry and transport of many trace gases. Understanding the time scale as well as the chemical and spatial patterns of perturbations to trace gases is needed to evaluate possible environmental damage (e.g. stratospheric ozone depletion or climate change) caused by anthropogenic emissions. This paper reviews lessons learned from treating global atmospheric chemistry as a linearized system and analysing it in terms of eigenvalues. The results give insight into how emissions of one trace species cause perturbations to another and how transport and chemistry can alter the time scale of the overall perturbation. Further, the eigenvectors describe the fundamental chemical modes, or patterns, of the atmosphere's chemical response to perturbations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J Prather
- Earth System Science Department, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA.
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Bortz SE, Prather MJ, Cammas JP, Thouret V, Smit H. Ozone, water vapor, and temperature in the upper tropical troposphere: Variations over a decade of MOZAIC measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Wild O, Sundet JK, Prather MJ, Isaksen ISA, Akimoto H, Browell EV, Oltmans SJ. Chemical transport model ozone simulations for spring 2001 over the western Pacific: Comparisons with TRACE-P lidar, ozonesondes, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer columns. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd003283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Wild
- Frontier Research System for Global Change; Yokohama Japan
| | | | - Michael J. Prather
- Earth System Science; University of California, Irvine; Irvine California USA
| | | | - Hajime Akimoto
- Frontier Research System for Global Change; Yokohama Japan
| | | | - Samuel J. Oltmans
- Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Boulder Colorado USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
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Johnston NAC, Colman JJ, Blake DR, Prather MJ, Rowland FS. On the variability of tropospheric gases: Sampling, loss patterns, and lifetime. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd000669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nancy A. C. Johnston
- Department of Chemistry; University of California, Irvine; Irvine California USA
| | | | - Donald R. Blake
- Department of Chemistry; University of California, Irvine; Irvine California USA
| | - Michael J. Prather
- Department of Earth Systems Science; University of California,Irvine; Irvine California USA
| | - F. Sherwood Rowland
- Department of Chemistry; University of California, Irvine; Irvine California USA
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Abstract
Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Change
. Guy P. Brasseur, John J. Orlando, and Geoffrey S. Tyndall, Eds. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1999. 672 pp. $75, £54, ISBN 0-19-510521-4
The collective effort of a group of researchers at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and their colleagues, this volume presents an interdisciplinary examination of chemical processes in the atmosphere that is focused on global patterns and problems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J. Prather
- The author is at the Earth System Science Department, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
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Penner JE, Bergmann DJ, Walton JJ, Kinnison D, Prather MJ, Rotman D, Price C, Pickering KE, Baughcum SL. An evaluation of upper troposphere NOxwith two models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/98jd01565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Kotamarthi VR, Rodriguez JM, Ko MKW, Tromp TK, Sze ND, Prather MJ. Trifluoroacetic acid from degradation of HCFCs and HFCs: A three-dimensional modeling study. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/97jd02988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Abstract
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the top three greenhouse gases whose emissions may be brought under control through the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Current understanding of its global budget, including the balance of natural and anthropogenic sources, is largely based on the atmospheric losses calculated with chemical models. A representative one-dimensional model used here describes the photochemical coupling between N2O and stratospheric ozone (O3), which can easily be decomposed into its natural modes. The primary, longest lived mode describes most of the atmospheric perturbation due to anthropogenic N2O sources, and this pattern may be observable. The photolytic link between O3 and N2O is identified as the mechanism causing this mode to decay 10 to 15 percent more rapidly than the N2O mean atmospheric lifetime, affecting the inference of anthropogenic sources.
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Affiliation(s)
- MJ Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA. E-mail:
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Avallone LM, Prather MJ. Tracer-tracer correlations: Three-dimensional model simulations and comparisons to observations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1997. [DOI: 10.1029/97jd01123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Jacob DJ, Prather MJ, Rasch PJ, Shia RL, Balkanski YJ, Beagley SR, Bergmann DJ, Blackshear WT, Brown M, Chiba M, Chipperfield MP, de Grandpré J, Dignon JE, Feichter J, Genthon C, Grose WL, Kasibhatla PS, Köhler I, Kritz MA, Law K, Penner JE, Ramonet M, Reeves CE, Rotman DA, Stockwell DZ, Van Velthoven PFJ, Verver G, Wild O, Yang H, Zimmermann P. Evaluation and intercomparison of global atmospheric transport models using222Rn and other short-lived tracers. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1997. [DOI: 10.1029/96jd02955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 239] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Prather MJ. Climate Change Consensus. Science 1996; 271:1042-3. [PMID: 17792297 DOI: 10.1126/science.271.5252.1042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Hall TM, Prather MJ. Seasonal evolutions of N2O, O3, and CO2: Three-dimensional simulations of stratospheric correlations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1995. [DOI: 10.1029/94jd03300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Ko MK, Sze ND, Molnar G, Prather MJ. Global warming from chlorofluorocarbons and their alternatives: Time scales of chemistry and climate. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1993. [DOI: 10.1016/0960-1686(93)90215-k] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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Jacob DJ, Logan JA, Gardner GM, Yevich RM, Spivakovsky CM, Wofsy SC, Sillman S, Prather MJ. Factors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1993. [DOI: 10.1029/98jd01224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 212] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Jacob DJ, Logan JA, Yevich RM, Gardner GM, Spivakovsky CM, Wofsy SC, Munger JW, Sillman S, Prather MJ, Rodgers MO, Westberg H, Zimmerman PR. Simulation of summertime ozone over North America. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1993. [DOI: 10.1029/93jd01223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Watson RT, Prather MJ. Stratospheric Ozone. Science 1988. [DOI: 10.1126/science.239.4842.847.b] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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Abstract
An increase in the concentration of inorganic chlorine to levels comparable to that of oxidized reactive nitrogen could cause a significant change in the chemistry of the lower stratosphere leading to a reduction potentially larger than 15% in the column density of ozone. This could occur, for example by the middle of the next century, if emissions of man-made chlorocarbons were to grow at a rate of 3% per year. Ozone could be further depressed by release of industrial bromocarbon.
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Affiliation(s)
- M J Prather
- Center for Earth and Planetary Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
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Abstract
Helium is removed at an average rate of 10(6) atoms per square centimeter per second from Venus's atmosphere by the solar wind following ionization above the plasmapause. The surface source of helium-4 on Venus is similar to that on Earth, suggesting comparable abundances of crustal uranium and thorium.
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Abstract
Recombination of O(2)(+) represents a source of fast oxygen atoms in Venus' exosphere, and subsequent collisions of oxygen atoms with hydrogen atoms lead to escape of about 10(7) hydrogen atoms per square centimeter per second. Escape of deuterium atoms is negligible, and the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen should increase with time. It is suggested that the mass-2 ion observed by Pioneer Venus is D(+), which implies a ratio of deuterium to hydrogen in the contemporary atmosphere of about 10(-2), an initial ratio of 5 x 10(-5) and an original H(2)O abundance not less than 800 grams per square centimeter.
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